DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

[devil21]

With the Paris "event" today, it's obvious something is underway. Too many things converging onto the same timeline to ignore. I don't know if presence wants this thread to off in the religious direction so I'll leave that decision to presence. The game is afoot, however! I hope people are buckled up.

Correct or incorrect with respect to what? The main problem with people's interpretation of Cahn is they assume he's predicting something.

Nothing in particular since I didn't read the book, therefore I don't know what he was claiming. The Shmita/Jubilee stuff is very real religious observance though and it appears this cycle of observances are carrying a lot more "weight" than recent examples.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Every year has earthquakes. Every year brings some sort of major tragedy. Shmita or Jubilee or "normal" years. All of them. Tens of thousands of them which have not yet led to the End of the World and the Second Coming.

 

[fatjohn]

So copper is at 2 bucks now. Continuing its superslide. So when will we hear stuff again from the glencores and trafiguras in the world?

 

[devil21]

Next leg down finally started this week? What is your chart reading telling you, presence?

Interesting watching oil and the dollar move in the same direction while gold sits still.

eta: CNBC has Carl Icahn on right now and he's all doom-n-gloom, saying meltdown is just starting. Those that remember 2008 should remember that SHTF when they started doing doom-n-gloom interviews with the big players...

 

[Krugminator2]

My thoughts from someone who has made, lost, and made a little bit of money. The market is at a major key inflection point.

A lot of sentiment indicators says the market should rally. The equity put/call spiked to .96 on Tuesday. The last 10 times this happened the market closed higher within the next week. Equity mutual fund outflows are at the highest levels since the S&P downgrade in 2011. Next week is Fed day. If you would have bought the close of the the day before a Fed and held for one day, you would have picked up almost 100% of the S&P gains over the last decade. The AAII investor sentiment and Tickersense both had a spike in bearish sentiment but that isn't a big point. The McClellan oscillator is at levels that have led to rallies the last 6 times and it almost at the crash levels from August. December 15 through the end of the year is seasonally been one of the most bullish times over the last 40 years.

The flip side is the trend follow indicators and the basic market timing model I use show the market should drop. Every leading stock has broken down. Monday could be the start of a series of rate tightening. Junk bonds have been crashing which tend to lead stocks. And there hasn't been a nice 20% drop in a long time. And stocks are the high end of valuation of most valuation metrics. All of the contrarian indicators tend to work until they don't and crashes happen when things look really terrible like now.

This has been my worst month in 5 years and I have been bleeding out of my eyes and yet I am still ridiculously long. Markets like to inflict pain. I suspect there are lot of people like me who are permabulls who haven't cut back as much they should. This is exactly the time where stock market crashes happen and if Yellen says something the market doesn't like then it could be bad news. Just my thoughts.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.

 

[kfarnan]

Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.

That's what they said in 2008 and 2001. People never learn.

 

[Zippyjuan]

People who move in and out of the market tend to move out after it experiences a large drop and go back in after it has gone back up a lot meaning they sold low and bought high and lose a lot of money they would have had if they had just kept what they had and stayed with it. I got lucky in 2009 and made my annual IRA contribution (my $5,000 maximum allowed) the very week in March the market hit bottom.

 

[devil21]

Dow -367 today. Dips are growing larger. Look out below.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Lots of expiring options today. Rare "Quadruple Witching" day (occurs four times a year). http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/18/us-markets.html

"You can't dismiss the quadruple witching. It begins to affect market volatility and volume. You also have a backdrop for the market that has not been as healthy as you want to see it," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

"The market basically has been going back, reverting to where it was before (the Fed)," she said. Low "oil prices has been difficult for the market to accept."

Let's see what happens Monday.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp

DEFINITION of 'Quadruple Witching'

The expiration date of various stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. All stock options contracts expire on the third Friday of each month and once every quarter - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - all four asset classes expire on the same day. Because futures and options investors must close out of their positions on those days, they often witness increased trading volume.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Schiff- Gold still Going To $5000. He has also said the Fed could never end QE. The would never raise interest rates. A recession is right around the corner. As he has said every year since 2007.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/gold-is-still-going-to-5000-peter-schiff.html

Gold prices plunged more than 2 percent Thursday on the heels of the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike in nearly a decade. The commodity is now sitting near its lowest level since 2010, and with 8 ½ trading sessions left in 2015, the commodity is on track for its third straight year of losses — which would be the longest losing streak since 1998. But despite the horrid returns, one noted gold bug is sticking to his claims that the commodity could soon surge.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, Peter Schiff stood behind his previous call that gold will reach $5,000. "It's still going to go there," said Schiff when he was asked about his uber-bullish prediction. "I don't think there's that much downside [in gold] because I think most of this is already built into the price," he added.

According to Schiff, regardless of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says, the U.S. economy is "rapidly going into a recession," which will inevitably trigger the central bank to retract the rate hike and reinstate gold as the safe haven asset it once was.

"I think symbolically just to show that they have confidence in the economy that they have no confidence in, [the Fed] raised rates to 25 basis points," said the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff has long believed the Fed would in fact never hike, but instead induce another round of quantitative easing.

 

[Dforkus]

Schiff- Gold still Going To $5000. He has also said the Fed could never end QE. The would never raise interest rates. A recession is right around the corner. As he has said every year since 2007.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/gold-is-still-going-to-5000-peter-schiff.html

I've got about 10k cash free in my online trading account, trying to figure out where to make the move..

With natural gas so cheap right now, there is going to be consolidation in the MLP space.. Whoever is the winner in that space is going to gain a lot of power..
I think its going to be EPD/ETE/ETP, but that is just speculation..

My main retirement split between high grade bonds, and index funds, that won't change...

 

[Zippyjuan]

I still like my utility DRIP- Dividend Re-Investment Plan. Bonds pay low rates these days and are at risk of losing value as interest rates rise (unless you buy and hold).

 

[Zippyjuan]

Dow -367 today. Dips are growing larger. Look out below.

DOW rebounded 123 points today. Looks like Quadruple Witching was a factor on Friday's losses.

 

[jllundqu]

Watching the predictable 3:30pm PPT go to work is comical. Does anyone believe this is real anymore?

Think, just for a moment, about where we are.

In the past, if my father wanted to invest in a company, he would purchase shares. If the company was under wise leadership and produced/provided a value to the ecomomy, it profited. These profits were then shared with people like my father, who would receive his dividend check in the mail. Contrast that with where we are today... Algos and HFT front-running the front-runners... FED FOMC minutes... QE Infinity... BTFDers..... Nothing about the market today is real. This central-banking experiment is a very sad tale to watch as it comes apart. Seeing my country in nearly 20-trillion in debt while watching the rich get richer takes its toll on the soul.

 

[presence]

USD-CNY likely to test 7.0 by end of 2016 - EconoTimesEconoTimes‎ - 4 hours ago



[h=3]Dow sets mark for most volatile December since 2008
MarketWatch-Dec 18, 2015[/h]
[h=3]Classic theory could put the market in jeopardy[/h]CNBC-17 hours ago

[h=3]Industrial Stock Technicals Suggest More Pain Ahead[/h]Barron's-17 hours ago

[h=3]Tumbling commodities prices shake index[/h]Financial Times-Dec 20, 2015

[h=3]More Pain Ahead for Commodities in 2016: Analysts[/h]ThinkAdvisor-Dec 21, 2015

[h=3]FTSE 100: Further Losses Possible on Soft Commodities[/h]DailyFX-Dec 21, 2015

Spain threatens to RUPTURE eurozone: Investors on edge
Express.co.uk-Dec 21, 2015

[h=3]Tumbling oil prices taking a toll on energy jobs, production in ...[/h]The Advocate-Dec 19, 2015
[h=3]Oil keeps tumbling: Brent sinks to 11-year low[/h]Seeking Alpha-Dec 20, 2015
Brent crude is now shattering records.






[h=3]Why Markets Aren't in the Holiday Spirit[/h]Wall Street Journal-19 hours ago

2015 Will End With Oil And Gas Markets Writhing In Pain
In-Depth-Forbes-Dec 19, 2015

 

[presence]

Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.

The return of market volatility last week shouldn’t have come as a big surprise given the unusual economic, political and geopolitical fluidity around the world. The past year has been characterized by occasional spikes in volatility, either in the form of sharp asset-price gains or, as was the case last week, acute falls.

And 2016 promises a lot more of the same, which should force investors to pay greater attention to the dynamics of potential tipping points.


The central question is not whether market volatility is on the rise; it is. Rather, the main uncertainty is whether these occasional spikes will prove both temporary and reversible, and, in particular, whether injections of liquidity from both public and private sources will continue to quickly stabilize market conditions, and for how long.

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MohamedElErian/nine-signs-volatile-markets/2015/12/21/id/706743/

 

[oyarde]

So copper is at 2 bucks now. Continuing its superslide. So when will we hear stuff again from the glencores and trafiguras in the world?

I have been buying some .

 

[Zippyjuan]

Watching the predictable 3:30pm PPT go to work is comical. Does anyone believe this is real anymore?

Think, just for a moment, about where we are.

In the past, if my father wanted to invest in a company, he would purchase shares. If the company was under wise leadership and produced/provided a value to the ecomomy, it profited. These profits were then shared with people like my father, who would receive his dividend check in the mail. Contrast that with where we are today... Algos and HFT front-running the front-runners... FED FOMC minutes... QE Infinity... BTFDers..... Nothing about the market today is real. This central-banking experiment is a very sad tale to watch as it comes apart. Seeing my country in nearly 20-trillion in debt while watching the rich get richer takes its toll on the soul.

Rich have been getting richer since long before the country was even founded.

 

[fatjohn]

I have been buying some .

Copper or glencore?