Dissecting Ron Paul's 14%

S

SteveMartin

Member
Joined
Nov 23, 2007
Messages
2,184
Dissecting Ron Paul's 14% in New Hampshire

1/5/08

Premium members of Rasmussen Reports have access to the crosstabbed information from any poll and when Ron Paul gets 14% in this poll, we just had to see where most of his success was coming from.

Gender

* Men - 16%
* Women - 10%

Age

* 18-29 - 29%
* 30-39 - 14%
* 40-49 - 12%
* 50-64 - 15%
* 65+ - 3%

Party

* Republican: 10%
* Other: 22%

Ideology

* Conservative: 11%
* Moderate: 13%
* Liberal: 29%
* Unsure: 83%

Married

* Yes - 12%
* No - 21%

Children at Home

* Yes - 16%
* No - 12%

Okay so the reason this is all relevant is because the demographics that Ron Paul is doing well with are the exact same demographics that tend to be underrepresented in the polls. Voter turnout could catapult Ron Paul into the 20-percent range, we are just not sure yet.

Ron Paul also seems to be cutting into the same demographic that John McCain is successful with. So if the Independent and younger voters go to Ron Paul, are they doing it at the expense of John McCain. That could cost McCain the Primary as he is in a hotly contested fight with Romney for first place.

Ron Paul still has a long way to go before before challenging for first place as his net favorability rating is at just 42% versus McCain (71%) and Romney (64%).

Here are the highlights:

1. Ron Paul is first in New Hampshire among the under 30 crowd (tied with McCain).
2. Ron Paul is is second among voters identifying themselves as "Not Republican", McCain was at 37%.

In conclusion, Ron Paul is strong in the categories that McCain is expected to be strong in as well, whether it impacts McCain's race with Romney is yet to be seen but if turnout is strong and in Ron Paul's favor this could become a three way race.
 
problem is that the 18-29 crowd traditionally has the lowest turnout.

How to motivate these people?
 
Excellent, thanks.

Do you have anything more recent? Any other states? It's all in the crosstabs!

I agree Dr. Paul and McCain (and to a lesser extent Obama) are competing for the same constituency: it's all about "character" and independence.

Comment on my poll postings in one place here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=80038
 
Last edited:
Thanks Steve - very informative post...well analyzed..now how to get the younger crowd to the polls?
 
It's funny how the old people are the "radicals" here.

You'd think they'd be the ones to be for the Constitution, but it looks like they just want their Social Security handouts.
 
Age

* 18-29 - 29%
* 30-39 - 14%
* 40-49 - 12%
* 50-64 - 15%
* 65+ - 3%
Click to expand...

We cannot win with that spread. What can we do in future states to get the older folks on board?
 
AGE
* 40-49 - 12%
* 50-64 - 15%
* 65+ - 3%

Wasn't 2/3rd of the Iowa turn out 45 or older? We dont do well with the old people set in their ways to think America is always right no matter what and thats what is doing us in : (
 
Last edited:
RP must HAMMER the fact that the SSS is going broke, and that the only way to save it is to BRING THE TROOPS HOME!
 
The key is, "What is the appropriate message to this constituency?" In my canvassing and phone calling seniors' 3 main questions/concerns are:

1) How will Ron Paul help me afford my prescriptions and healthcare costs?

Ron Paul is a physician who sees the healthcare issue from a doctor/patient perspective. He wants to get the gov't out of runnning healthcare and not pandering to the lobbies of HMOS, INSURANCE COMPANIES, drug companies and the FDA. Socialized medicine will not work.

It is time to take back our health care. This is why Ron Paul supports:

Making all medical expenses tax deductible.

Eliminating federal regulations that discourage small businesses from providing coverage.

Giving doctors the freedom to collectively negotiate with insurance companies and drive down the cost of medical care.

Making every American eligible for a Health Savings Account (HSA), and removing the requirement that individuals must obtain a high-deductible insurance policy before opening an HSA.

Reform licensure requirements so that pharmacists and nurses can perform some basic functions to increase access to care and lower costs.

By removing federal regulations, encouraging competition, and presenting real choices, we can make our health care system the envy of the world once again.

2) How is Ron Paul going to protect social security and medicare if he eliminates income taxes?

First of all, Ron Paul wants to eliminate any taxes you currently pay on your Social Security checks. And he will make all medical expenses tax deductible. However, the real key is to halt the growth of gov't and you do that by cutting its budget back to year 2000 levels which will reduce the budget by one third. Understand our current foreign policy of billion dollar handouts to buy influence from other countries and our ongoing Iraq War and military troops around the globe is bankrupting this country. By reversing this policy you will go along way to reducing our federal budget. Gov't encroachment in healthcare already is the problem. Healthcare is the largest percentage of our economy (15.5% of GDP). Free market policies can drive a more efficent, less costly healthcare system.

3) I am old, but I worry about the future for my children and grandchildren

Rightfully so. Ron Paul is the only true fiscal conservative among the presidential candidates. The future of this country hangs on its economic and financial strength. We are a debtor nation of $9 Trillion dollars whose currency is devaluing against the rest of the world. If the gov't had to report their entitlement obligations such as medicare and social security, like all other companies in the U.S., the debt would balloon to $50 trillion. Your children and grandchildren now stand to suffer a form of indentured servitude where they will be working 8 months out of the year to fund entitlement obligations for seniors - all because Washington won't stop spending. Ron Paul is the only candidiate that does not introduce ideas of bigger government to solve our countries problems for entitlements, healthcare, and education. Ron Paul feels so strongly about this, he refuses to participate in the lucrative congressional pension plan. He cannot in good conscience do so, because the politicians in washington should not receive easy street while shirking their responsibilities to the American people.
 
Older folks are the same as everyone else. They simply need to hear the message. My mother who is 62 will vote for Dr. Paul because she wants our troops out of Iraq and doesn't believe that the U.S. should be the world's policeman.

At Christmas dinner, her mother, my grandmother who is 94 brought up that she had seen an interview with Dr. Paul (I think maybe his hour long interview with Glenn Beck) and said that he is the only one who is making any sense!

They just need to hear the message!
 
smhbbag said:
We cannot win with that spread. What can we do in future states to get the older folks on board?
Click to expand...

Just a thought thinking of my own grandparents.... they are in their 70s and they aren't the type of people to get all excited about politics, but, like many older people, they rely heavily on THEIR OWN INVESTMENTS as well as minimal money from social security and pensions.

I'm sure people much more intelligent than I can come up with a couple of points about the fact that Ron Paul wants people to be able to actually afford retirement. I'm not keen enough per se, but some of you out there might be able to draw the parallels necessary to come up with good talking points on things like personal investment, retirement, social security and how free market medical care are truly in the best interest.

In opposition, we have people wanting to give them free health care. While this is something that should draw attention from this age group, if most people are "Old-school" like my grandparents, they know the gratification that accompanies TAKING CARE OF YOUR SELF.

is there any merit to thinking this way?

anyone have other ideas of issues i can bring up with them?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top