Sigh, same old tired incorrect bullshit...
While some states haven't chosen who is going to the convention to represent them, the decision on how they vote is not up to those delegates.
Delegate Projection
- Thread starter nate895
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Sigh, same old tired incorrect bullshit...
While some states haven't chosen who is going to the convention to represent them, the decision on how they vote is not up to those delegates.
nate895
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The 21 missing from Georgia I believe were going to Romney, but I'm not sure, it still balances if you add those to Huckabee and the others to McCain.
We just have to hope that 55% of the totally unpledged delegates (never stated preference anywhere) go for anyone but McCain.
nate895
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In many it is, it is the same as in the Electoral College pretty much, many states do not bind their electors.
75+% of the delegates are bound on the first ballot. Just by fact, unquestionably.
Of the remaining 25% or so, the 150 RNC delegates will vote by tradition however their state went. After that you have the morally bound. What's left over is the group that truly isn't bound. Even out of those, you have issues of in some cases the candidates presenting a delegate slate that is voted on, with the delegates personally chosen by the candidates, yet they're considered unbound by the state in documents, but it's highly unlikely they'll vote counter to whoever put them on the slate. It's why going strictly by who is and isn't bound leaves out many nuances that allow much finer grain predictions to be made than simply looking over some website is going to give you.
Even in your predictions, McCain is short what? 150 or so when you count in California?
nate895
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Yes, that is the case, but the only 7 states that I can see that are really favorable to McCain are (mostly) 6 of the 9 proportional ones left. Texas is counted among those 8, but Im betting Huckabee will get higher than 50% in all but a few districts, and statewide, thereby stealing almost all of the delegates. Ohio is by CD, same with Wisconsin and Washington (WA is prop. statewide with a 20% cutoff). One thing to note here is if Huckabee pulls off a win in Wisconsin, McCain will be set back by 20 delegates at least.
Wrong!! You do not know what your talking about. The decision is up to the delegates. If you are bound to vote for a candidate you do not have to vote for him but it will ruin your political career with the party... that is all. Go research it.
billjarrett
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Erm, only for those 'morally bound'. But those are in minority. Large majority are legally bound by state's law. Not much they can do about it.
Again you do not know what your talking about. You do not go to the convention and have delegates just assigned to a candidate. The media wants you to think this but it is not true. They want you to think its over but it is not, the presidential process is a grassroots process not a primary sheep election. Stop watching the news, they do not represent truth. Those delegates are real people that vote and their vote is what decides the nominee not what the media projects.
Some delegates are bound on the first round or the first couple depending on the state laws ect... but they can not force you to do it. You will most likely ruin your political career and I would not encourage this as we can still get past the first round and unlock all the delegates with rule changes ect... this happens all the time and is the reason we need delegates there so we can get the platform and rules changed in our favor not in theirs. Delegates are grassroots, delegates decide the rules, they decide the platforms on all levels of government for the party. If you want to really help change this government become a delegate and get others to do so.
Whoa there, cowboy!
I didn't say they were bound forever. I was pointing out that most of delegates are *legally* bound on the first ballot, and subsequent balloting depends on various state's law then the state party's by-laws.
I do totally agree we need to get RP Republicans as delegates for *all* candidates.
I didn't say they were bound forever. I was pointing out that most of delegates are *legally* bound on the first ballot, and subsequent balloting depends on various state's law then the state party's by-laws.
I do totally agree we need to get RP Republicans as delegates for *all* candidates.
Sorry if I came off defensive I did not mean to do that. Yet when you say legally bound what are the consequences of breaking those laws? None. Only being barred from the political party. That is if those people in control stay in control...
SWATH
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Even if there were a jail term (doubtful), it would be a small price to pay to save the country.
The only thing I'm not 100% sure is whether the delegates can actually cast a contrary vote.
I read somewhere earlier that the votes for first ballot that are bound are read off a roll call so there's no actual voting (except for those unbound). Verification?
I read somewhere earlier that the votes for first ballot that are bound are read off a roll call so there's no actual voting (except for those unbound). Verification?
nate895
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I think this is the case, otherwise I'm sure there was at least one person in the 2004 convention that didn't like GWB, but they were forced to vote for him anyway. However, I think that it is still possible to make this thing go to a second ballot if Huckabee wins enough states that the media finally takes off McCain's anointed status.
Yes, all I am saying is it is not over. It isn't even close to being over... politics is not cut and dry it is shady, sneaky and all about positioning. The media is trying to use their power to position themselves and their candidates. We are using the grassroots to position ourselves. I do not know all the laws in each state but their will be plenty of delegates that could break rank and vote for someone other than who they are bound to stop McCain from winning on the first ballot.
It seems like most people think that those numbers the media are posting are just assigned to candidates and this is not true at all. Unfortunately this is what they want you to think, that you don't have power and so you won't participate. The delegates will deside the nominee at the convention, not before. John McCain is not the nominee... why do you think the media keeps saying presumptive? Not because he hasn't reached the number now but because he will not be it until he recieves the votes at the convention.
The people at the convention are just people... they can change there minds. You can help them change there minds... Much can happen from now until september that could change there minds...
Just remember that even though the media will eventually report John McCain the winner he will not win unless the delegates at the convention decide to nominate him with their votes. Votes cannot be forced, even bound votes cannot be forced.
It seems like most people think that those numbers the media are posting are just assigned to candidates and this is not true at all. Unfortunately this is what they want you to think, that you don't have power and so you won't participate. The delegates will deside the nominee at the convention, not before. John McCain is not the nominee... why do you think the media keeps saying presumptive? Not because he hasn't reached the number now but because he will not be it until he recieves the votes at the convention.
The people at the convention are just people... they can change there minds. You can help them change there minds... Much can happen from now until september that could change there minds...
Just remember that even though the media will eventually report John McCain the winner he will not win unless the delegates at the convention decide to nominate him with their votes. Votes cannot be forced, even bound votes cannot be forced.
Great post -
Delegate projection is up in the air totally -
McLame needs 40% at least in every remaining contest to secure the nomination according to CNN -
McvLame may NOT get that IMHO if Texans, and Ohioans, and Pennsylvanians want their votes to
mean sometin'and don't go along with the R-AZZ Senator assumption he has it locked up.
As a potential Iowa delegate - we're only at the county convention stage regardless of what you hear -
we definitely have more RP delegates in the pipeline than the mainstream media wants to admit.
They will try hard - but they can NOT stop this constitutional revolution.
Delegate projection is up in the air totally -
McLame needs 40% at least in every remaining contest to secure the nomination according to CNN -
McvLame may NOT get that IMHO if Texans, and Ohioans, and Pennsylvanians want their votes to
mean sometin'and don't go along with the R-AZZ Senator assumption he has it locked up.
As a potential Iowa delegate - we're only at the county convention stage regardless of what you hear -
we definitely have more RP delegates in the pipeline than the mainstream media wants to admit.
They will try hard - but they can NOT stop this constitutional revolution.
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nate895
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They will eventually look at the delegate apportionment rules and realize that there is a shot at it, it will probably be the night of March 4th if the people of Ohio and Texas reject McCain.
Yep, they can change the rules... and this is what we must be prepared to fight and ensure they help us. It is a long battle still ahead and we must stay focused, we can win. Is it uphill? Certainly but it is very possible.
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