Dark DNC Convention: Hillary Clinton's support dips after "negative attacks" convention

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Dark DNC Convention: Hillary Clinton's support dips after "negative attacks" convention

Apparently DNC Convention was so dark and negativity filled that Hillary Clinton's support number dipped a bit in the latest poll day after the convention instead of getting a usual convention bounce.
Besides DNC convention speeches being filled with negative attacks, another factor could be that it may have showed a lack of humility.
Hillary said "I accept the nomination" in contrast to Trump's "I humbly accept the nomination".



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General Election: Trump vs. Clinton


Polling Data[TABLE="class: data large"]
[TR="class: header"]
[TH="class: noCenter"]Poll[/TH]
[TH="class: date"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: sample"]Sample[/TH]
[TH="class: moe"]MoE[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Clinton (D)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Trump (R)[/TH]
[TH="class: spread"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rcpAvg"]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TD]
[TD]7/25 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1050 LV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.5[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]LA Times/USC[/TD]
[TD]7/23 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]2188 LV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]--[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Rasmussen Reports[/TD]
[TD]7/26 - 7/27[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1000 LV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.0[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Economist/YouGov[/TD]
[TD]7/23 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1057 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.5[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]CNN/ORC[/TD]
[TD]7/22 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]882 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.5[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]CBS News[/TD]
[TD]7/22 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1118 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.0[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]NBC News/SM[/TD]
[TD]7/18 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]12931 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]1.2[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]





And in a real national election scenario, it is still a tie following the relatively "Bright RNC Convention" last week that generated convention bounce for GOP candidate:


[TABLE="class: chart_legend small_legend"]
[TR]
[TD="class: candidate"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: candidate"]
logo-sub.gif

RCP Poll Average
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Polling Data

[TABLE="class: data large"]
[TR="class: header"]
[TH="class: noCenter"]Poll[/TH]
[TH="class: date"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: sample"]Sample[/TH]
[TH="class: moe"]MoE[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Trump (R)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Clinton (D)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Johnson (L)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Stein (G)[/TH]
[TH="class: spread"]Spread[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]RCP Average[/TD]
[TD]7/18 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]--[/TD]
[TD]40.0[/TD]
[TD]38.8[/TD]
[TD]7.3[/TD]
[TD]3.0[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TD]
[TD]7/25 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1433 LV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]2.9[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][COLOR= ]Tie [/COLOR][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]CNN/ORC[/TD]
[TD]7/22 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]882 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.5[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Economist/YouGov[/TD]
[TD]7/23 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1057 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.5[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]NBC News/SM[/TD]
[TD]7/18 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]12931 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]1.2[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TD]
[TD]7/16 - 7/20[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1232 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.2[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Economist/YouGov[/TD]
[TD]7/15 - 7/17[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]925 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.5[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html#polls



This commentary is based on a different spin than that may appear in other media headlines.
 
1. ht tp://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/30/trump-reeling-clinton-10-point-democratic-convention-bounce-15-point-lead.html
Trump Reeling As Clinton Gets 10 Point Democratic Convention Bounce And 15 Point Lead

By Jason Easley on Sat, Jul 30th, 2016 at 11:40 am

A new poll taken after the Democratic convention revealed that Hillary Clinton had erased any gains that Trump made after the Republican convention, with a 10 point convention bounce and a 15 point lead.


2. h ttp://predictwise.com/blog/2016/07/pollfish-survey-solid-convention-bound-for-clinton/
Pollfish Survey: solid convention bound for Clinton
The Pollfish survey, a weekly survey of 1,000 American voters, shows a very different trend from the general election polling of traditional surveys. Pollfish showed no Republican Convention bounce for Donald Trump and a solid Democratic Convention bounce for Hillary Clinton. In contrast, traditional polling, aggregated on Huffington Post’s Pollster, showed an historically average bump for Trump coming out of his convention. And, is still waiting for the polling from the Democratic Convention, which will come out in the next few days.



3. htt ps://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/7/29/1554341/-NEW-Reuters-IPSOS-Clinton-leads-Trump-by-6-points-41-35-Beginning-of-convention-bounce
NEW Reuters/Ipsos poll: Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, 41% - 35%. Beginning of convention bounce?
2016/07/30 · 00:31
 
It's too early, they need a few days after the convention to poll people. There are some polls coming out tomorrow though that were supposedly taken Tuesday-Friday.
 
It's all about keeping you in one camp or the other. The duopoly survives by a close election.
 
randomname said:
Meanwhile, LA times tracking poll tells a completely different story (Trump +6)
Click to expand...

NEW ELECTION POLL: TRUMP UP BY 6 AFTER DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

July 29, 2016 Sam Wenkert Election
JULY 29: A new election poll released this morning (conducted on July 28) by the USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows that Donald Trump has 46.7% of the total popular vote, while Hillary Clinton lags behind with 40.6% of the popular vote. 2,188 people were surveyed.

This is a very surprising result, considering that the Democratic National Convention usually gives the Democratic candidate a large boost in the polls. It did not seem to be the case this year for Hillary Clinton.



--

Too soon to say if left wing neocons/suspected war criminals lobbies are finished in 2016 but signs not looking good for them so far.




Related
[h=1]The DNC turned off the lights on Bernie delegates[/h]
 
Last edited:
National General Election:

Trump 46% (+4)
Clinton 42%

@USCDornsife/@LAtimes Daybreak Tracking Poll 7/30-31
 
Clinton Image Improves Following Conventions; Leads Trump by 5

PPP's new national poll, taken completely after both party's conventions, finds that Hillary Clinton emerged with a much more positive image than she had a month ago. Donald Trump meanwhile is just as unpopular as he was before the conventions.

Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. The gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58% with a negative one. That's barely changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.

Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head just between Clinton and Trump, Clinton hits 50% and leads Trump 50-45. A month ago Clinton led 45-41 in the full field contest and 48-44 in the head to head so there hasn't been much change. But not much change is good news for Clinton. We've been writing for months that this race is shaping up pretty similarly both nationally and at the state level to the margins Barack Obama won by in 2012- not a huge landslide by any means, but a solid victory. The conventions have passed without any change to that big picture, and that leaves Clinton as the favorite going into the final three months.

It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.

Democrats are coming out of their convention with the public having a much better view of their party (45/48 favorability) than the Republicans (38/55 favorability). By a 50/40 margin voters say they see the Democratic convention as having been more of a success than a failure, and the major speakers from the convention generally have a positive image with voters. Michelle Obama is the most popular with a 56/39 favorability rating, followed by Joe Biden at 50/39, Bill Clinton at 48/45, and Chelsea Clinton at 45/31. Barack Obama has a 50/47 approval rating, and voters say by a 53/44 spread that they'd rather have him as President than Trump- that metric suggests the possibility for Clinton to grow her lead further if she's able to win over some of those folks who prefer Obama over Trump but aren't with her yet.

The Vladimir Putin/Russia issue has the potential to cause Donald Trump a lot of problems in the weeks ahead. Only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably to 69% with a negative opinion and only 14% see Russia as a whole favorably to 52% with a negative view. By a 47 point margin- 5% more likely, 52% less likely- voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate if it's perceived Russia is interfering in the election to try to help them. And by a 26 point margin- 9% more likely, 35% less likely- they're less likely to vote for a candidate seen as being friendly toward Russia. If Democrats can effectively leverage this issue in the weeks ahead it has the potential to help turn this into a more lopsided race.
Also problematic for Trump is that the issue of him releasing his tax returns isn't going anywhere. 62% of voters think he needs to release them to only 23% who think it's not necessary. That includes Democrats (85/8) and independents (60/22) overwhelmingly thinking Trump needs to release them and Republicans (37/43) being pretty evenly split on the issue.

This election is never likely to turn out to be the sort of landslide for Clinton that some expected a year or 6 months ago because Trump voters just hate Clinton too much for that to ever happen. For instance on this poll we find that 74% of Trump voters think Clinton should be in prison, to only 12% who disagree. By a 66/22 margin they say Clinton is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don't think so, and 31% who are unsure either way. Against that set of findings it's simply not very likely that many Trump voters will be moving into the Clinton column and that's why although she's certainly the favorite the chances of her winning a double digit victory are pretty minimal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_7302016.pdf
 
randomname said:
Clinton Image Improves Following Conventions; Leads Trump by 5

PPP's new national poll, taken completely after both party's conventions, finds that Hillary Clinton emerged with a much more positive image than she had a month ago. Donald Trump meanwhile is just as unpopular as he was before the conventions.

Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. The gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58% with a negative one. That's barely changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.

Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head just between Clinton and Trump, Clinton hits 50% and leads Trump 50-45. A month ago Clinton led 45-41 in the full field contest and 48-44 in the head to head so there hasn't been much change. But not much change is good news for Clinton. We've been writing for months that this race is shaping up pretty similarly both nationally and at the state level to the margins Barack Obama won by in 2012- not a huge landslide by any means, but a solid victory. The conventions have passed without any change to that big picture, and that leaves Clinton as the favorite going into the final three months.

It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.

Democrats are coming out of their convention with the public having a much better view of their party (45/48 favorability) than the Republicans (38/55 favorability). By a 50/40 margin voters say they see the Democratic convention as having been more of a success than a failure, and the major speakers from the convention generally have a positive image with voters. Michelle Obama is the most popular with a 56/39 favorability rating, followed by Joe Biden at 50/39, Bill Clinton at 48/45, and Chelsea Clinton at 45/31. Barack Obama has a 50/47 approval rating, and voters say by a 53/44 spread that they'd rather have him as President than Trump- that metric suggests the possibility for Clinton to grow her lead further if she's able to win over some of those folks who prefer Obama over Trump but aren't with her yet.

The Vladimir Putin/Russia issue has the potential to cause Donald Trump a lot of problems in the weeks ahead. Only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably to 69% with a negative opinion and only 14% see Russia as a whole favorably to 52% with a negative view. By a 47 point margin- 5% more likely, 52% less likely- voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate if it's perceived Russia is interfering in the election to try to help them. And by a 26 point margin- 9% more likely, 35% less likely- they're less likely to vote for a candidate seen as being friendly toward Russia. If Democrats can effectively leverage this issue in the weeks ahead it has the potential to help turn this into a more lopsided race.
Also problematic for Trump is that the issue of him releasing his tax returns isn't going anywhere. 62% of voters think he needs to release them to only 23% who think it's not necessary. That includes Democrats (85/8) and independents (60/22) overwhelmingly thinking Trump needs to release them and Republicans (37/43) being pretty evenly split on the issue.

This election is never likely to turn out to be the sort of landslide for Clinton that some expected a year or 6 months ago because Trump voters just hate Clinton too much for that to ever happen. For instance on this poll we find that 74% of Trump voters think Clinton should be in prison, to only 12% who disagree. By a 66/22 margin they say Clinton is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don't think so, and 31% who are unsure either way. Against that set of findings it's simply not very likely that many Trump voters will be moving into the Clinton column and that's why although she's certainly the favorite the chances of her winning a double digit victory are pretty minimal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_7302016.pdf
Click to expand...

Your poll is a Pro Hillary and Pro Obama one.
It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very
Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd
rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up
voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead
up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Tr
Click to expand...
 
PPP is a leftist BLM propaganda outlet, and I will be adding them to the list of "not OK" sources.
 
And in a real national election scenario, it is still a tie following the relatively "Bright RNC Convention" last week that generated convention bounce for GOP candidate:


[TABLE="class: chart_legend small_legend"]
[TR]
[TD="class: candidate"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: candidate"]
logo-sub.gif

RCP Poll Average
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Polling Data

[TABLE="class: data large"]
[TR="class: header"]
[TH="class: noCenter"]Poll[/TH]
[TH="class: date"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: sample"]Sample[/TH]
[TH="class: moe"]MoE[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Trump (R)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Clinton (D)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Johnson (L)[/TH]
[TH="class: diag"]Stein (G)[/TH]
[TH="class: spread"]Spread[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]RCP Average[/TD]
[TD]7/18 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]--[/TD]
[TD]40.0[/TD]
[TD]38.8[/TD]
[TD]7.3[/TD]
[TD]3.0[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TD]
[TD]7/25 - 7/29[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1433 LV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]2.9[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"][COLOR= ]Tie [/COLOR][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]CNN/ORC[/TD]
[TD]7/22 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]882 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.5[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Economist/YouGov[/TD]
[TD]7/23 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1057 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.5[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]NBC News/SM[/TD]
[TD]7/18 - 7/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]12931 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]1.2[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Trump +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TD]
[TD]7/16 - 7/20[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]1232 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]3.2[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]Economist/YouGov[/TD]
[TD]7/15 - 7/17[/TD]
[TD="class: sample"]925 RV[/TD]
[TD="class: moe"]4.5[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD="class: spread"]Clinton +3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Click to expand...

In some controversial polls, situations are getting out of hand.

US-Presidential-Election-Daily-Tracking-Poll-7-29-2016.png
 
LInk to that one: https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/...in-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

Donald Trump holds a roughly 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton two days after the Democratic National Convention. The People’s Pundit Daily Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll finds Mr. Trump at 47.6% to 42.1% for Mrs. Clinton, a lead that is largely fueled by a greater consolidation of the Republican base and a lead among independent voters.

Perhaps the biggest story regarding the post convention polling data is the shift toward Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein and the collapse of Libertarian Party candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

On July 19, the first day of the Republican convention, Gov. Johnson enjoyed roughly 9% support in the 4-way matchup, and Dr. Stein was polling at an usually high 3% (her support has ranged from 1% to 3%). Now, no doubt a result of the embarrassing WikiLeak release of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee, Dr. Stein has increased to her highest level of support to date (4.3%).

Meanwhile, the decline of Mrs. Clinton’s support began even before the conventions began, with voters turning markedly more negative in their views toward the former secretary of state in light of the statements made by FBI Director James Comey. She has struggled to recover ever since and would likely be far higher if a significant number of her own party wasn’t opting for Dr. Stein, Gov. Johnson and even Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump is drawing more Democrats (17%) than Mrs. Clinton is drawing from Republicans (9%).

Also worth noting, Mr. Trump was fairly successful at rehabilitating his image among a large number of voters who previously held a less favorable view of him, while views of Mrs. Clinton changed almost immeasurably after the convention.

One of the most praised speeches at the DNC was given by President Barack Obama, who has enjoyed historically high approval ratings in his final year. This week, the numbers got slightly negative with 46% approving and 48% disapproving. As we’ve repeatedly found, the intensity as measured by the percentage of those who say they disapprove or approve “a great deal,” is disproportionately against the president.

Only 16.7% say they approve of the president “a great deal,” while 38.2% say they disapprove with the same intensity.

Much has been made about the contrasting views of the state of the union and level of trust in government coming out of the two parties’ conventions. Overall, most Americans believe that Mr. Trump is telling the truth about corruption and the government being broken, though his supporters are more likely to hold more negative views than Mrs. Clinton’s voters.

When asked, “How much does the national government care about what people like you think?” 47.6% say “Once in a while” and 38.1% say “Never.” Still, even half of Mrs. Clinton’s voters agree with one of those assessments, while the other half says “Most of the time” (20%) or “About half the time” (30%).

When asked, “How often does the federal government do what most Americans want it to do?” 34.8% of Trump voters say “Never” and 47.8% say “Once in a while.” That compares to only 8.3% of Clinton voters who say “Never,” though a significant number (41.7%) say “Once in a while.”
The Electorate

Gauging the likelihood of voting and past voting behavior, we have estimated the current electorate to be 46.15% men and 53.85% women, which one would expect to bode well for Mrs. Clinton. However, Rust Belt and New England suburban women have begun to warm up to Mr. Trump, despite what I personally believed to be a decent job by Democrats at their convention to reach out to them.

In terms of enthusiasm, Trump voters are measurably more excited heading into November than Clinton voters. Roughly 59% of Trump voters say they are “extremely enthusiastic” and 27% say they are “very enthusiastic,” juxtaposed to just 50% and 20%, respectively, saying the same about the Democratic nominee. Voters 18 to 29 years old are the least enthusiastic about the November election, while

The decrease in Mr. Trump’s margin is also somewhat reflective of the increased number of respondents who identify as Democrats. More voters than ever before self-identify as independent (32.8%), while 29.9% identify as Democrat and 27.9% as Republican.
People's Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.
Click to expand...

these polls are all over the place
 
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Joe Biden leads President Trump by double digits nationally, USC poll suggests
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Anti Federalist
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