CTrattlesnake's analysis thread: Super Tuesday Edition

[alucard13mmfmj]

i hope we have plenty of observers to make sure no shady crap goes on or it gets reported. our biggest enemy right now are "accidents" in the voting process.

 

[PolicyReader]

If you put the amout of money raised in the green and yellow places in seperate equations...then figure out who raised what based on percentage this is what you get. I don't know if this has worked for other states but when you factor the whole state fundrasing % to total vote % it is always within an average of about 3% so here we go. We can compare this with tomorrows turn out. Now just because Ron seems to edge out Romney in my illistration, you would need to further factor in where the populous areas are and what kind of voter turn out there will be.

This will be interesting to watch.

 

[Xenophage]

I share your frustration with the lack of data in AK, it annoys a stats junkie like me to no end

To address your point, McCain was the establishment candidate in 2008, Romney was the conservative....look where the two ended up. AK is not an establishment state at all, if you look at the dynamics of the 08 race, you'll find that Romney should actually come in last this time around, but we both know that wont happen. I have visited the state and the lifestyle is very different from the lower 48. While they still may watch Fox, they're is a much more noticeable libertarian streak. They dont call it the last frontier for nothing.

I'd put the odds at about 50/50 for a win in AK, again because of the lack of data, and the fact that Romney may still have a good presence there. Time will tell

As an Alaskan who actually went to the 2008 state convention as a Ron Paul delegate (I live in Oregon these days), I can tell you a few things: Romney's campaign is very strong in Alaska, and he's favored heavily by the GOP insiders there, and they are extremely hostile to Ron Paulians. Countering that is one of the most active and energetic grassroots organizations Ron Paul has in the entire country.

I have a lot of faith in my friends and family in Alaska. Their challenge is no easier than anyone else's, but I know they'll make the entire country proud tomorrow, even if we don't win outright.

 

[MisterTickle]

If only we had Iowa, Maine, and Washington under our belt..

 

[CTRattlesnake]

As an Alaskan who actually went to the 2008 state convention as a Ron Paul delegate (I live in Oregon these days), I can tell you a few things: Romney's campaign is very strong in Alaska, and he's favored heavily by the GOP insiders there, and they are extremely hostile to Ron Paulians. Countering that is one of the most active and energetic grassroots organizations Ron Paul has in the entire country.

I have a lot of faith in my friends and family in Alaska. Their challenge is no easier than anyone else's, but I know they'll make the entire country proud tomorrow, even if we don't win outright.

I share your optimism. To your first point, lets be real with ourselves, this is the nature of every state thats held elections so far. It's just something we have to deal with.

 

[PolicyReader]

I share your optimism. To your first point, lets be real with ourselves, this is the nature of every state thats held elections so far. It's just something we have to deal with.

This is true. Freedom is popular, but not among the establishment or Status Quo types.


On a different note, voter turnout so far today seems pretty slim (tho of course there are states which haven't even started yet and a long time to go in those that have)