opinionatedfool
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CTrattlesnake's analysis thread: Super Tuesday Edition
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andrew1229649
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Here are my predictions. I think Vermont will be close, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won. I think Paul will blow all out of the water in North Dakota with Gingrich in a distant second. I also think Paul will handily win Alaska. Here is what you can expect the maps to look like. The counties that the other candidates win in Alaska and North Dakota are just a general area I think they might win a county. Alaska:
North Dakota:
Vermont:
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PolicyReader
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I can't speak to Alaska one way or the other (the only people I know up there are Paul supporters but I don't know a whole lot of people up there so that may not mean much). However I will say that Intrade this year hasn't impressed me. Their calls have been iffy (and I don't really blame them this race is crazy, but that still doesn't make them a good source). They had Romney over 80% going into SC. Maybe I'm alone in this but personally I don't place much stock in them this cycle.
Andrew1229669, Any specific polling/demographic reasons for your predictions? Curious.
Policy Reader, Totally agree with your opinion of Intrade. It is simply best guesses of very imperfect information. My only point is that it is the only (very imperfect) data point of Alaska that I have seen.
Policy Reader, Totally agree with your opinion of Intrade. It is simply best guesses of very imperfect information. My only point is that it is the only (very imperfect) data point of Alaska that I have seen.
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CTRattlesnake
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I share your frustration with the lack of data in AK, it annoys a stats junkie like me to no end
To address your point, McCain was the establishment candidate in 2008, Romney was the conservative....look where the two ended up. AK is not an establishment state at all, if you look at the dynamics of the 08 race, you'll find that Romney should actually come in last this time around, but we both know that wont happen. I have visited the state and the lifestyle is very different from the lower 48. While they still may watch Fox, they're is a much more noticeable libertarian streak. They dont call it the last frontier for nothing.
I'd put the odds at about 50/50 for a win in AK, again because of the lack of data, and the fact that Romney may still have a good presence there. Time will tell
CTRattlesnake
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Enjoy-
#1 North Dakota
What's at stake?
-28 delegates: 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 12 bonus
The winner is essentially guaranteed 15/25 winnable delegates.
-Caucus
-Voter must have voted for republicans in 2008, or intend to vote for the reps. in 2012 (not really sure how you check up on that one...)
March 30th-April 1st: State convention in Bismarck
Where are the people?
North Dakota actually has fewer people than Alaska (but has more than Vermont), which puts into perspective how wide open the state actually is. The state is really just a bunch of towns and small cities in the middle of the prairie. Not much going on between population centers. Lets look at the largest towns.
Fargo (eastern part of state) --------105,000
Bismarck (central part of state)------61,000
Grand Forks (eastern part of state)---52,000
Minot (northwest part of state)--------40,000
The key thing to note here is that the majority of the population lives relatively close to the MN border. The east is more developed than the west.
What happened last time?
Like Alaska, Ron placed a close third, with Romney in the lead. Again, it is crucial people remember that Romney ran as the conservative alternative to John McCain in 2008 and as a result, excelled in the western, anti-establishment states.
County by county breakdown is relatively mundane and doesnt reveal that much. Romney won nearly every county, Paul managed to pull away 3 counties on the canadian border in the northeast and 3 more in the south/central. Huckabee won 3 next to Paul's 3 in the south/central, and McCain won a random county.
But like I said, that doesnt reveal much, lets break it down by legislative district and look at some cities. Remember, Paul received 21% of the overall vote.
Math time.
Total votes in cities= 4,477 (45.75% of total)
Total Paul average vote in cities= 21.03%
Paul total vote in cities=941.5 (round that half person up to 942)
Paul vote in rural areas= 1,140/5308 (21.5%)
Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%
Long way of saying that Paul's city vote is equal to his rural vote.
Also of note, Paul's vote in the largest city in the state averaged way above normal. If Paul can pull down huge numbers in Fargo, it should provide a perfect safety cushion in case something goes wrong elsewhere. Fairly interesting that he actually did below average in the smallest of the 'big 4' while placing above average in the largest of the 'big 4'.
What to expect this time
I stated in the Alaska post that if Paul couldnt win in Alaska, where could he win.....well the answer is here. Literally the perfect storm for our good Dr.
-low turnout caucus
-northern, lowly populated state
-good support in 2008
-good donations.
To say that Paul is leading in donations would be the understatement of the year. Paul is the titanic iceberg to the Republican ship in terms of donations. He's crushing everyone.
I wont post the usual maps, just look at the total 2011 donations.
A few things jump out.
1) Paul is out-raising the democrats nearly 2-1
2) Michelle Bachmann is 2nd in republican donations...tells you what North Dakotans thought of the other 'flavor of the month' candidates
3) Our friend Willard is barely out-raising a guy who dropped out in August. This perhaps is the most amazing thing, not only is Romney loosing to Bachman, he's supposed to be the front runner...you know, the guy who raises a lot of money. Guess ND didnt get the message.
Let that sink in for a minute, and then come back and explain to me why Paul should not win the state.
Now, the one thing, the only thing that gets me nervous is Santorum. I DO NOT expect him to win in ND, but if any surprises came out Tuesday night, it would most likely be in his favor. Santorum dominated the counties just across the border in MN, and I know its weeks later, but if one thing is going against Paul, its that Santorum won nearly 50% from the state next door. But again, Santorum is on the down swing, and I dont expect him to pull any miracles like he did that night.
So, to summarize the past couple of posts I made.
I expect Ron to WIN:
-AK
-ND
I expect Ron to place a solid, if not close second in:
-VT
-ID
Thank you all for reading and the kind, words. I will try to continue this sort of thing going forward, you have been a great and patient audience.
#1 North Dakota
What's at stake?
-28 delegates: 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 12 bonus
The winner is essentially guaranteed 15/25 winnable delegates.
-Caucus
-Voter must have voted for republicans in 2008, or intend to vote for the reps. in 2012 (not really sure how you check up on that one...)
March 30th-April 1st: State convention in Bismarck
Where are the people?
North Dakota actually has fewer people than Alaska (but has more than Vermont), which puts into perspective how wide open the state actually is. The state is really just a bunch of towns and small cities in the middle of the prairie. Not much going on between population centers. Lets look at the largest towns.
Fargo (eastern part of state) --------105,000
Bismarck (central part of state)------61,000
Grand Forks (eastern part of state)---52,000
Minot (northwest part of state)--------40,000
The key thing to note here is that the majority of the population lives relatively close to the MN border. The east is more developed than the west.
What happened last time?
Code:
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Mitt Romney 3,490 35.82% 8
John McCain 2,224 22.83% 5
Ron Paul 2,082 21.37% 5
Mike Huckabee 1,947 19.98% 5
Total 9,743 100% 23Like Alaska, Ron placed a close third, with Romney in the lead. Again, it is crucial people remember that Romney ran as the conservative alternative to John McCain in 2008 and as a result, excelled in the western, anti-establishment states.
County by county breakdown is relatively mundane and doesnt reveal that much. Romney won nearly every county, Paul managed to pull away 3 counties on the canadian border in the northeast and 3 more in the south/central. Huckabee won 3 next to Paul's 3 in the south/central, and McCain won a random county.
But like I said, that doesnt reveal much, lets break it down by legislative district and look at some cities. Remember, Paul received 21% of the overall vote.
Code:
Grand Forks (Overall: 15.25%)
District Paul%
42 16
43 13
18 25
17 7
Fargo (Overall 31.4%)
District Paul %
44 29
21 48
11 28
46 24
45 33
13 27
27 31
Bismarck (Overall=23%)
District Paul%
30 23
31 30
32 22
34 24
35 17
Minot (Overall=14.5%)
District Paul%
3 18
5 13
38 8
40 19Total votes in cities= 4,477 (45.75% of total)
Total Paul average vote in cities= 21.03%
Paul total vote in cities=941.5 (round that half person up to 942)
Paul vote in rural areas= 1,140/5308 (21.5%)
Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%
Long way of saying that Paul's city vote is equal to his rural vote.
Also of note, Paul's vote in the largest city in the state averaged way above normal. If Paul can pull down huge numbers in Fargo, it should provide a perfect safety cushion in case something goes wrong elsewhere. Fairly interesting that he actually did below average in the smallest of the 'big 4' while placing above average in the largest of the 'big 4'.
What to expect this time
I stated in the Alaska post that if Paul couldnt win in Alaska, where could he win.....well the answer is here. Literally the perfect storm for our good Dr.
-low turnout caucus
-northern, lowly populated state
-good support in 2008
-good donations.
To say that Paul is leading in donations would be the understatement of the year. Paul is the titanic iceberg to the Republican ship in terms of donations. He's crushing everyone.
I wont post the usual maps, just look at the total 2011 donations.
A few things jump out.
1) Paul is out-raising the democrats nearly 2-1
2) Michelle Bachmann is 2nd in republican donations...tells you what North Dakotans thought of the other 'flavor of the month' candidates
3) Our friend Willard is barely out-raising a guy who dropped out in August. This perhaps is the most amazing thing, not only is Romney loosing to Bachman, he's supposed to be the front runner...you know, the guy who raises a lot of money. Guess ND didnt get the message.
Let that sink in for a minute, and then come back and explain to me why Paul should not win the state.
Now, the one thing, the only thing that gets me nervous is Santorum. I DO NOT expect him to win in ND, but if any surprises came out Tuesday night, it would most likely be in his favor. Santorum dominated the counties just across the border in MN, and I know its weeks later, but if one thing is going against Paul, its that Santorum won nearly 50% from the state next door. But again, Santorum is on the down swing, and I dont expect him to pull any miracles like he did that night.
So, to summarize the past couple of posts I made.
I expect Ron to WIN:
-AK
-ND
I expect Ron to place a solid, if not close second in:
-VT
-ID
Thank you all for reading and the kind, words. I will try to continue this sort of thing going forward, you have been a great and patient audience.
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Not polling information but this is a good data point: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?360378-Fundraising-vs-votes-for-Dr.-Paul-by-state
andrew1229649
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My predictions are basically based on fundraising. Since the fundraising is the most accurate way to predict the outcome of these races. It is usually within 3% look at this thread http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...s-for-Dr.-Paul-by-state&highlight=fundraising . I just went to the FEC website and broke it down a little bit more with a calculator.
CTRattlesnake
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Basically, if Ron cant win in ND or AK, he is not going to win a state.
First, thanks for the maps and analysis. Fun to look at while my wife sleeps away her strep throat. The less time I spend with her right now, probably the better. 
Second, does anyone know what the real delegate count was for ND in 2008? You know, we're obsessed with delegates and winning caucuses after all the dust settles and straw polls have left town. I think your delegate numbers were probably the estimated delegate projections that we know aren't ultimately accurate. Anyone know what the real counts were? Anyone from ND back then on this forum or are you all busy drilling for oil?
Second, does anyone know what the real delegate count was for ND in 2008? You know, we're obsessed with delegates and winning caucuses after all the dust settles and straw polls have left town. I think your delegate numbers were probably the estimated delegate projections that we know aren't ultimately accurate. Anyone know what the real counts were? Anyone from ND back then on this forum or are you all busy drilling for oil?
PolicyReader
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Yeah I totally agree with you there, I'm not even saying their methodology is bad per se just that it (like most of the poll) was built to assess a markedly different beast that what we have this time round.
You are correct tho the data is all pretty dicey this time and I certainly concur that it's a valid thing to keep in mind. I guess my sense is that end of the day the more of a data hound you are the more useful the polls/Intrade et al are, but the less of a stats junkie the more likely one becomes to 'read them straight' and thus the more misleading they become.
CTRattlesnake
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First, thanks for the maps and analysis. Fun to look at while my wife sleeps away her strep throat. The less time I spend with her right now, probably the better.
Second, does anyone know what the real delegate count was for ND in 2008? You know, we're obsessed with delegates and winning caucuses after all the dust settles and straw polls have left town. I think your delegate numbers were probably the estimated delegate projections that we know aren't ultimately accurate. Anyone know what the real counts were? Anyone from ND back then on this forum or are you all busy drilling for oil?
8-mitt
5-ron
5-mccain
5-huck
andrew1229649
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CTRattlesnake is right, don't win ND or AK and we ain't winning a state. I feel that we have a real chance at walking away with 4 states tomorrow. Those states being North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, Idaho. I would bet on North Dakota and Alaska. Give me a 2:1 bet on Vermont and Idaho and I would bet you on them too.
I know CT hasn't talked about Virginia yet but I really think we could pull some magic there. Most will say that we poll like crap there but the other 2 guys are still in the race and I'm sure their people either won't show up or they will vote for Paul to help their guy.
Best case scenario Paul wins: 4-5
North Dakota
Alaska
Idaho
Vermont
*Virginia
Second place in: 2
Massachusetts
Virginia(by default)
P.S. keep an eye on Kansas(edit: they vote on 3/10). CT I would love to hear your analysis on Kansas.
I know CT hasn't talked about Virginia yet but I really think we could pull some magic there. Most will say that we poll like crap there but the other 2 guys are still in the race and I'm sure their people either won't show up or they will vote for Paul to help their guy.
Best case scenario Paul wins: 4-5
North Dakota
Alaska
Idaho
Vermont
*Virginia
Second place in: 2
Massachusetts
Virginia(by default)
P.S. keep an eye on Kansas(edit: they vote on 3/10). CT I would love to hear your analysis on Kansas.
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CTRattlesnake
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Kansas votes later. But i will do a thing on it
If you go back and read my VT and ID posts, you'll see why im skeptical about winning them
RonRules
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I love to see this stat:
Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%
Puts the shame the trolls on the flipper thread making the claim that Ron does not do well in urban areas. Ron is everywhere: Midwest, east, west, central south. The only weakness is the southeast.
Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%
Puts the shame the trolls on the flipper thread making the claim that Ron does not do well in urban areas. Ron is everywhere: Midwest, east, west, central south. The only weakness is the southeast.
CTRattlesnake
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Its really hard to pin down where ron does well.
His best counties are usually random rural counties...and his worst counties are usually random rural counties.
He seems to get second in the big cities a lot
Keith and stuff
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I don't beleive in this vote flipping stuff. However, those numbers are from 2008, not 2012. Hopefully Ron Paul gets 50%, 50% this time around in ND, though
It seems to be the South (southern states) in general. I doubt he will do well in OK and he did poorly in AZ and MO. The South seems to be the most hawkish part of the US. The Republicans tend to be more moderate/libertarian in New England and the Northwest and that tends to help Romney and Paul.
andrew1229649
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If you put the amout of money raised in the green and yellow places in seperate equations...then figure out who raised what based on percentage this is what you get. I don't know if this has worked for other states but when you factor the whole state fundrasing % to total vote % it is always within an average of about 3% so here we go. We can compare this with tomorrows turn out. Now just because Ron seems to edge out Romney in my illistration, you would need to further factor in where the populous areas are and what kind of voter turn out there will be.
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