CTrattlesnake's analysis thread: Super Tuesday Edition

[CTRattlesnake]

Hey all, the washington analysis thread was fairly accurate in predicting the outcome of the states caucus.

So, here I'm going to be reviewing the states we have the best shot at winning.


1) North Dakota
2) Alaska
3) Idaho
4) Vermont


I will be covering the top 4 in a series of posts in this thread.

Lets begin from the bottom up with Vermont.


Where are the people?

Vermont is one of the least populated states in the nation with less than 700,000 people. Most of the state is dotted with small towns.

Largest cities:

Burlington 42,417
Essex 19,587
South Burlington 17,904
Colchester 17,067
Rutland 16,495
Bennington 15,764

The largest center of the population is clustered around Burlington and Lake Champlain in the northwest of the state. After that, small towns and cities voer the rest of the state pretty evenly with the exception of the northeastern part of the state which is thinly populated.

What happened in 2008?


Vermont's primary was held on March 4th and McCain had essentially wrapped up the nomination. With 71% of the vote, he trumped Huckabees 14% and Paul's 6%. McCain won every town.

That being said, even with 6% of the vote overall, Paul managed to come in second in Burlington, nearly doubling huckabees totals.

How about this year?

Here is why some people see hope in Vermont. In 2011, Romney out-raised Paul by only $4,000...no one else was even close to the two.

If we break it down further, we see this Paul out-raising Romney in 5/9 zip code regions.

Romney appears to have strong support in the burlington area and some of the souther parts of the state, but Paul has more support everywhere else, especially in the northeastern section.

While Vermont is more liberal than New Hampshire overall, the republicans that inhabit Vermont are relatively similar to those in NH. Many of Paul's strongest towns in NH bordered Vermont, and that is reflected in donations.


What to expect?

While I dont believe that Ron will win Vermont, I believe he can get a strong second place showing. This is not friendly territory for either Santorum or Gingrich, and Paul has proven he can do well in the northeast.

My prediction:

Romney: 44%
Paul: 28%
Santorum: 19%
Gingrich: 8%

I think Paul will do well, if not win the counties in Gold, Romney should win everywhere else

 

[parocks]

Good thread.

Perhaps you should add this information to all of your states that you cover.

1) Who can vote?

2) Is there Same Day Registration?

3) Links to a caucus finder or a primary finder.

I'm going to put up some facebook ads and I'm finding little on RPF that I would put in my ad.

 

[MisterTickle]

I can't wait to read the rest.

 

[parocks]

I like this thread, I'll add my research to it

**************
VERMONT
************
http://www.govotevermont.com/

Voter Registration Deadline was Feb 29.

ALL Registered Voters Can Vote in Republican Primary

**************
ALASKA
************

Voter Registration Deadline has passed.

Republicans and Independents Can Vote in Republican Primary

 

[PolicyReader]

Looking forward to the rest, great look thread so far

 

[pahs1994]

I would add that Vermont's delegate allocation is 17 total: 3 RNC, 11 at large and 3 winner take all of the congressional districts.

I have just learned that VT has one CD so basically the outright winner will get the 3 CD delegates. The final 11 are proportional, UNLESS a candidate gets 50% of the vote, than it is winner take all. We need to keep Romney under 50%.

My source is wiki of course :o http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Primary_schedule

 

[CTRattlesnake]

#3---Idaho


Whats at stake?
-Closed Caucus
-32 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 13 bonus to winner

Now stick with me here, this is where it gets pretty cool.


In each county, voting takes place by secret ballot in successive rounds. Voting continues until either a single candidate receives greater than 50% of the vote, or until only 2 candidates remain on the ballot and a final vote is taken. After each round, remove any candidate receiving less than 15% then remove the candidate receiving the fewest votes.

Any candidate winning more than 50% or more of a county's vote will be awarded that entire county's share of National Delegates.
When neither candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the candidates split the county's share of National Convention Delegates, in proportion to the candidates' county vote totals [Rules Article VI Section 4:].

So essentially what Idaho does is it tries to water down the competition to two candidates. If neither candidate receives more than 50% of that counties vote, the counties delegates are split between the two. If one candidate receives the majority of the vote, he wins the delegates. They're a total of 396 county delegates, split proportionally amongst the counties.

Where are the people?

Sparsely populated, Idaho's population centers are clustered around 3 main areas. Boise in the southwest, Cour D'Alene in the north, and the cities in the southeast.

Largest counties by population

Ada-------300,904 (home to Boise)
Canyon---131,441 (borders Ada county)
Kootenai--108,685 (Cour D'Alene, suburbs of Spokane as well)
Bonneville- 82,522 (Idaho Falls, SE part of State)
Bannock--- 75,565 (SE part of state)

Now, here is where we run into some trouble. There is a significant LDS population in the Southeastern part of the state, in fact Idaho has the second highest mormon population percentage wise in the entire country. So its clear Ron is going to struggle in that part of the state.

What happened last time?

The Idaho primary took place in late may in 2008. Ron received 23% of the vote, even though McCain was the nominee by that point and he was the only other person on the ballot. So, while its not that telling, the 2008 vote does reveal a bit of interesting information about Ron's support in the state.

The map below highlights Ron's 2008 support. Remember, he received 23% overall.

Gold=40%+
Green=30%-40%
Blue=23%-30%
Orange=15%-23%
Red=15% or less

You can see Ron's support is best in the northern and western parts of the state while he lags behind in the mormon southeast.

What can we expect this time?

Lets first look at campaign contributions through the end of 2011.

As you can see, Romney absolutely destroyed Ron in the southeastern part of the state. But Ron returned the favor in the north.

So what we have is almost polar opposites. Ron in the north, Mitt in the southeast. Slight advantage for Mitt in Boise.

So what can we expect?

Again, I dont see Ron winning, but I think a solid second is in store. Mitt's support is simply too overwhelming in the mormon areas of the state. If you took away that region, I'd say Ron could probably win, but with that area, its not going to happen. The one element that we do have working in our favor though, is that Idaho this time around, is a caucus. We all know how much that benefits us, so I do expect the campaign to walk away with a solid amount of delegates especially because state delegates are awarded based on a county by county basis.

Like I said before, its going to be hard to win, but if Ron is going to do it, he has to win Ada county. Simple as that. Santorum and Gingirch may get strong support in some of the rural areas randomly scattered throughout the state and could take some support away from both Ron and Mitt in the cities. However, i think they will come in 3rd and 4th respectively.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

shameless bump

will have ND and AK up later

 

[Syntax]

Good read! I'm looking forward to the analysis for ND and AK.

 

[Paulatized]

excellent, excellent. I like this detail analysis.
+rep to you.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

#2 Alaska

What's at stake?
-24 delegates, 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 11 bonus
-caucus (can register as a rep. at the caucus)
-Timeline:
-Straw poll: March 6
-District Conventions (delegates to state convention): 6 March - 24 March
-State Convention: 26 April - 28 April


Where are the people?

The least densely populated state in the nation, Alaska is known for its wide open spaces.

The three population centers in the state are as follows

Anchorage--------278,000
Fairbanks---------31,000
Juneau------------30,000

Besides that, there is really nothing notable.

What happened last time?


Candidate..........Votes............Percentage.....Delegates
Mitt Romney 5,988..............35.87%.........12
Mike Huckabee 2,996..............21.86%..........6
Ron Paul 2,363..............17.24%..........5
John McCain 2,132..............15.56%..........3
Total 13,703..............100%............26


Romney won the state in 2008 which took place on super tuesday. With 17% of the vote, Alaska was one of Ron's best states, and the low turnout caucus certainly played to his strengths.

Unfortunately, trying to find data from Alaska is like trying to pull teeth out, and I couldnt find anything significant in terms of county by county vote. However, the fact that McCain placed 4th out of 4 during Super Tuesday highlights the states anti-establishment lean. Remember, Romney was the 'conservative' in 2008, McCain was this years Romney.

What can we expect this time?


Lets look at donations. Alaska was one of the few states where Ron actually led in donations, besting Romney by a significant margin (96,000-54,000).

Ron's beat Romney everywhere, but his biggest margin of victory came in the subrubs of Anchorage, including Sarah Palin's home town of Wasilla (24k-2k). This is significant because normally these suburbs and outlying areas would be Mitt's stronger areas, but in alaska, it appears just the opposite. Beyond that, I didnt notice anything out of the ordinary.

I think Alaska will end up going to Ron. The fact that Alaska appears to be anti-establishment, coupled with the majority of donations going in Ron's favor, coupled with the low turnout caucus...everything points to a Ron win.

Basically, if Ron cant win in Alaska, where can he win?


Also of note, I would not be surprised to see Santorum challenge Romney for the 2nd spot, his evangelical message may play well to some.

 

[Danjlion7]

Well done!!!

 

[CTRattlesnake]

I would have really liked some town by town, or county by county info, but I cant find anything.

Best I could find is that Romney won every county, so it tells you there is not that much variation between regions.

 

[PolicyReader]

Still love reading this post, I endorse it again (I'm sad the GOTV effort for ID from the grassroots never got off the ground, I know ID reasonably well, lived there a couple times have friends and family etc. and I really think a solid GOTV push would have been able to carry Ron over the top... now I'll just cross my fingers but I think your assessment is spot on. As a side note If you are a Paul supporter IN IDAHO make sure you sign up as a delegate because the state convention can vote to re-award any/all delegates gained this Tuesday! )

 

[carterm]

repreprep

 

[fez2008]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to CTRattlesnake again."

Excellent^2

I wish you can do the analysis for the remaining states much earlier than their election dates for efficient allocation of campaign and grassroots resources. I think we (myself with my fundraising, actual vote analysis) have all been behind the curve and too late to concentrate on good states like Maine, WA, Minnesota and now ND.

Waiting eagerly for your ND analysis ....

 

[enrique]

I find it strange that you think a guy who won every county in 2008 would lose this time. I mean, that would be great but the analysis seems a little thin. I sympathize with you in that there really isn't a whole lot to go on with no polling or much for current analysis. My hunch is that most voters are still 1) bandwagon voters and 2) establishment even in Alaska. Just because it seems so far away and remote to most of us, they still follow the news just like we do and watch Fox News. Intrade, FWIW, has Romney winning at 80%. I don't mean to drag everyone down here but I just don't see why you're so confident. Maybe there is something I missed.

Incidentally, looking forward to ND analysis. I really love those maps.

 

[andrew1229649]

CTRattlesnake tell these folks how bad we are going to win North Dakota.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Alaska has parted ways with the mainland before. For example, in 1980, the Libertarian Party team of Edward Clark and David Koch received 12% of the votes in AK but only 1% of the votes in the US. That was a while back, though.

 

[rpwi]

Nicely done...are you going to tackle any states after these four? Virginia (yes it's a long shot) might be fun to size up.