CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

[oyarde]

Ya , current inflation not going anywhere fast any time soon as I've said. Food still out of control. Still running about 6 1/2 without food and energy. Food double digits . Everybody should be used to the third world by now. Gonna be several years in now soon

 

[oyarde]

On a brighter note Ford halts production and shipment of electric toy F 150s. Indiana lawmakers advance bill to launch a two yr study for elimination of state tax , passing unanimously out of committee . New state budgets are written for 2025

 

[Swordsmyth]

Economic Expert Says Inflation May Prove Stickier Than Predicted

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/...-inflation-may-prove-stickier-than-predicted/

 

[Occam's Banana]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cp...ou-should-skip-breakfast-fSd6mz0miaAPhUFb2jgy

 

[oyarde]

Ya , no thanks WSJ . I'm not skipping breakfast just because a lb of bacon doubles every obama - biden presidency. You peasants can if you must. Olberman isnt going to starve me out .

 

[oyarde]

Nestle predicts increases this yr in food staples, they increased prices last yr 8.2 percent but was not enough to offset the price increases they had.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Nestle, the biggest food corporation in the world has said it expects the prices for staple items will continue to rise throughout 2023, following a year of increasing prices which have made the purchase of groceries a continuing struggle for the average consumer.

More at: https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2023/02/20/nestle-issues-dour-warning/

 

[oyarde]

At this point I am not seeing anything to make me think producer costs will not rise Jan through Apr this yr

 

[oyarde]

Household debt skyrockets to most since 2008 crash , 17 trillion nearly 143k per household. Household debt rose 320 billion in last three months of last yr with 61 billion being credit card debt. Mortgage debt rose 290 billion last yr. 986 billion on credit cards is an all time high . Avg interest on those credit cards is 19.14 percent , ouch . Breaks the 1991 record avg of 19 percent .

 

[oyarde]

Productivity 2005 through current avg 1.4 percent compared to post WWII avg of 2.2 percent. 2000 - 2022 is 1.9 percent avg while the debt increased 450 percent .

 

[Swordsmyth]

Inflation Cooling, But Still Hot In Some States

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2023/02/23/inflation-cooling-but-still-hot-in-some-states/

 

[oyarde]

Ya , inflation isnt really cooling .When you have to remove 12 percent food inflation to get to around 6 1/2 that isnt good .

 

[oyarde]

Also it should be time to revise down 4th qtr gdp but it was probably lower than the revision will be.

 

[Swordsmyth]

US Inflation Accelerated Again In January

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2023/02/26/us-inflation-accelerated-again-in-january/

 

[oyarde]

Pending home sales up 8.1 percent in Jan , largest increase since June 2020.

 

[oyarde]

manufacturing declining for fourth straight month, still too many worthless frn's going to be chasing too few goods bringing inflation.interest rates are going to be moving up , should slow housing but no sign of slowing anything else at this time .

 

[oyarde]

US personal debt up 8 percent from Third qurter 2021 , Credit card debt up 14 percent from 2021 to 2022 and rising . Inflation still chooglin'

 

[Krugminator2]

High Inflation Will End Soon

But the Fed’s change in course heightens the risk of recession.

We predicted two years ago that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation. We were right when others weren’t because we based our forecast on the quantity theory of money, which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply. Despite this week’s increase in monthly inflation, we now think inflation is knocking on death’s door and a recession may be on the way.

The dramatic change in our predictions is due to the Fed’s dramatic change in behavior. In March 2020, the central bank embarked on large-scale asset purchases, which immediately and dramatically accelerated broad money growth. In May 2020, the three-month annualized growth rate of the money supply, as measured by M2, reached 77.2%. By March 2022, M2 had increased by an unprecedented cumulative 41%. Even during the inflation crises of 1973-75 and 1980-82, the increase in money growth didn’t approach what occurred in 2020-21.
Inflation usually lags sustained changes in the money supply by 12 to 24 months. Sure enough, by April 2021, headline inflation had increased to 4.2% from 1.5% in March 2020. By March 2022, it was 8.5%.
Given these data, we extended our forecast in the summer of 2022, writing that year-over-year inflation would end 2022 at 6% to 8% and would fall to 5% by the end of 2023. Excess money balances, which resulted from unbridled money growth in 2020-21, were some 20% greater in the second quarter of 2022 than the multidecade trend line for M2. We assumed that households and firms would spend these excess balances gradually until they hit “normal,” or on trend, and so inflation would persist.

Instead, the Fed reversed course sharply and households and businesses quickly shed excess money. M2 peaked at $21,739.7 billion in March 2022, and since then has declined to $21,207.4 billion. In the past nine months, M2 has declined at an annualized rate of 3.2%. This flip from expansion to contraction is the steepest adjustment in money-supply growth in postwar U.S. history. Based on 2022’s fourth-quarter data, the excess money balances have already declined to only 11.8% greater than normal and that slight bump could dissipate entirely by mid-2023. In other words, we’re almost out of the inflation woods.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-i...growth-forecast-prediction-e2259a30?mod=e2two

 

[Madison320]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-i...growth-forecast-prediction-e2259a30?mod=e2two

Yeah, but the fed's balance sheet drives m2.

I looked up the fed's balance sheet vs m2 since 1960.

Interestingly it was almost impossible to get the balance sheet before 2008 but I finally found it.

Excuse the spacing

balance M2 ratio
1960 53 298 5.622641509
1970 81 589 7.271604938
1980 158 1482 9.379746835
1990 310 3166 10.21290323
2000 669 4666 6.974588939
2010 2346 8458 3.605285592
2020 4149 15401 3.71197879
2023 8507 21267 2.499941225

M2 was on average 8 times as high as the balance sheet from 1960 to 2000 (before QE).

Now M2 is only 2.5 as high as the balance sheet.

That means that M2 has to triple to catch up to the balance sheet.

Therefore prices have a long way to go before they catch up to the fed's balance sheet and M2.

If you're right that M2 is the best predictor of prices then prices will eventually triple.

 

[oyarde]

no real way to predict now , never before has there been so much cash sitting around with the wealthy while at the same time the median income guy is spending every dime he gets. no savings , just debt putting them in an awful position to weather a downturn.personally i dont see a good long term outcome for the american monetary system. if you think a frn is worthless now just imagine in another decade.