CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

Madison320 said:
We just blew thru the 31 trillion mark on the national debt. Yay!
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debt up about 450 percent since year 2000 (5.8 trillion to 31 ) while the gdp is up about 40 percent since then ( avg of 1.9 percent per year and going down). So thats a failed state that isnt coming back from the cliff edge . You cant run a successful country increasing debt like that
 
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oyarde said:
debt up about 450 percent since year 2000 (5.8 trillion ) while the gdp is up about 40 percent since then ( avg of 1.9 percent per year and going down). So thats a failed state that isnt coming back from the cliff edge . You cant run a successful country increasing debt like that
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I'm starting to think that the best way out is to partially default on the debt.

When you loan money to somebody you assume a certain amount of risk of default. Why should it be different when you loan it to the govt?

After the default it would be much harder for the US govt to borrow money, and that's a good thing.
 
Bottom 90 percent of US saw debt increases of 300 billion ( 110 million houseolds).in past yr .New record.
 
Russia declares facebook meta a terror group. Rumors are Alaska will cancel crab season.
 
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US producer price inflation reported at 8.5 percent . That is horribly high for wholesale. Should be plenty of third world inflation still around for Nov elections. Fresh veggies up 15.7 percent and rising .Enjoy. Dow up 137 on this great news.
 
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Americas six largest banks are putting back 4 1/2 billion to be used to cover expected loan losses in Q3. 2022 second quarter saw deliinquent loans ( 30 to 89 days past due )rise 11.4 billion ( 25 percent ) over same period yr prior.
 
inflation hot , hot , hot .New number from information bureau still over 8 and up about a half point from the month prior.Dow at risk for 27k soon.
 
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The next shock will be wintertime, the first one since natural gas prices have increased by 50% year-to-date.
 
At this point there is no reason to expect any growth until summer of 2024 at least also no reason to expect much improvement in inflation.
 
Just saw a headline that says "Budget deficit shrank to 1.37 trillion in fiscal 2022."

First of all "shrank to 1.37 trillion" sounds kinda funny.

Second the actual deficit, which is the amount we borrowed, was 2.5 trillion. They don't count a lot of spending when then calculate the deficit. So we just borrowed 2.5 trillion and that was before the effects of the coming crash have been felt. I'm betting we borrow 4 trillion in FY2023.
 
Madison320 said:
Just saw a headline that says "Budget deficit shrank to 1.37 trillion in fiscal 2022."

First of all "shrank to 1.37 trillion" sounds kinda funny.

Second the actual deficit, which is the amount we borrowed, was 2.5 trillion. They don't count a lot of spending when then calculate the deficit. So we just borrowed 2.5 trillion and that was before the effects of the coming crash have been felt. I'm betting we borrow 4 trillion in FY2023.
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US Federal tax revenue for fiscal yr 2021 was about four trillion ( 4.047), an all time high so figure roughly they are adding another 61 percent in debt over that this past fiscal yr.
 
oyarde said:
US Federal tax revenue for fiscal yr 2021 was about four trillion ( 4.047), an all time high so figure roughly they are adding another 61 percent in debt over that this past fiscal yr.
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I expect tax revenue to collapse over the next couple years as the recession deepens.

Well at least until the Fed pivots ... then we'll have a spike up in a lot of things.
 
Pauls' Revere said:
You might be right, but gov. will intervene.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/buckle-brutal-free-fall-home-090000513.html

There are two kinds of people, those who own houses and those that don't.
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I think pretty much every economist in that article said we could never have higher inflation, the only thing we had to worry about is deflation. So they don't have much credibility.

But anyway I totally agree, the Fed/Govt is going to intervene at some point. Ultimately they'll intervene to prevent the US govt from defaulting on it's debt. But I think they'll intervene before that to prevent bank failures or some other crisis.
 
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