CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

[oyarde]

Oil up oil down makes no difference , that double digit grocery store inflation is gonna keep on chooglin'

 

[Krugminator2]

Think Oil pulls back 10% or so here but might not be a super smooth ride. A lot things lined up to keep it from going much higher. Technically very overbought using a few different metrics. Exchanges raising margin requirements. Using strategic reserve

That wasn't one of my better takes

 

[oyarde]

Dow down to 32, 324 , gold 1937 , inflation going up , one yr oil forecast 105

 

[Madison320]

Dow down to 32, 324 , gold 1937 , inflation going up , one yr oil forecast 105

Oil is way up, gold is up but my oil and gold stocks are getting killed!

 

[Madison320]

That wasn't one of my better takes

I still think commodities will pull back while the Fed is "attempting" to tighten. But at some point the tightening will crash the markets and the Fed will reverse course in a big way and then I think we'll see new all time highs in the commodities.

 

[Krugminator2]

I still think commodities will pull back while the Fed is "attempting" to tighten. But at some point the tightening will crash the markets and the Fed will reverse course in a big way and then I think we'll see new all time highs in the commodities.

I got sloppy and didn't take into consideration how big of impact the invasion would have on prices. If price moves against you 6% in something like oil you fucked up in a big way. That said, the trade is more likely than not going to end up "working" over the next couple of weeks. Might not be 10% from where I wrote that initially but probably sells off. Kind of think all this is priced into stocks and commodities. We'll see though.

 

[Madison320]

I got sloppy and didn't take into consideration how big of impact the invasion would have on prices. If price moves against you 6% in something like oil you $#@!ed up in a big way. That said, the trade is more likely than not going to end up "working" over the next couple of weeks. Might not be 10% from where I wrote that initially but probably sells off. Kind of think all this is priced into stocks and commodities. We'll see though.

So at this moment oil is up about 4% gold 1%, the major indexes are down like 1%, but my oil and gold stocks are down from 4%-8%!

I'm not a short term guy so it's not a big deal but I'm curious as to what you think is causing this? I'm sure it's some sort of weird effect of the war but not sure what.

 

[oyarde]

Gold 1914.40 . Inflation high. I'm still expecting Gold to even out around 1926 by Mon. but who knows. The one thing I know is costs are still rising .

 

[Krugminator2]

So at this moment oil is up about 4% gold 1%, the major indexes are down like 1%, but my oil and gold stocks are down from 4%-8%!

I'm not a short term guy so it's not a big deal but I'm curious as to what you think is causing this? I'm sure it's some sort of weird effect of the war but not sure what.

So many of the oil stocks were set up to be shorts going into the spike in oil. It was interesting though how so many of the bigger ones went down immediately before the price of oil like SLB, HAL, DVN.

Markets are forward looking. Some had moved for months in anticipation of this Russian event. Once the event happens the fear and uncertainty subsides. Buy the rumor, sell the news event. It is so simple and such and old piece of wisdom but it works.

As far as gold everyone (including me I was long Palladium and sold most gold two days before the big overnight spike but still had some) going into this invasion When everyone is on one side of the boat there is no one left to buy short term.

Look at oil right now. I see article after article about shortages this and that. And what a crisis it is. The crisis has already been discounted. It would have to be far worse than expected for oil to keep rising in the near term

 

[Madison320]

So many of the oil stocks were set up to be shorts going into the spike in oil. It was interesting though how so many of the bigger ones went down immediately before the price of oil like SLB, HAL, DVN.

Markets are forward looking. Some had moved for months in anticipation of this Russian event. Once the event happens the fear and uncertainty subsides. Buy the rumor, sell the news event. It is so simple and such and old piece of wisdom but it works.

As far as gold everyone (including me I was long Palladium and sold most gold two days before the big overnight spike but still had some) going into this invasion When everyone is on one side of the boat there is no one left to buy short term.

Look at oil right now. I see article after article about shortages this and that. And what a crisis it is. The crisis has already been discounted. It would have to be far worse than expected for oil to keep rising in the near term

It looks like it's reversing today. Oil and gold are down but my oil and gold stocks are mostly up.

I think the thing that's being overlooked in the price of oil is the inflation factor. The Fed has created 9 times as many dollars since 2009 and at some point it has to show up in the price of oil.

 

[oyarde]

Russians threatening now to attack sweden and finland .

 

[CaptUSA]

Any crypto folks out there want to explain the latest trends to me?? In theory, crypto would be a hedge against inflation and would act similarly to gold or silver. But in practice, it seems to mirror tech stock speculation instead. Am I reading this incorrectly? With all the fiat troubles and bank account freezing, you'd think the crypto trajectory would be straight up - but it isn't.

Are institutional banks manipulating crypto as well?

(serious question - I'm a complete boomer when it comes to crypto)

 

[Madison320]

Any crypto folks out there want to explain the latest trends to me?? In theory, crypto would be a hedge against inflation and would act similarly to gold or silver. But in practice, it seems to mirror tech stock speculation instead. Am I reading this incorrectly? With all the fiat troubles and bank account freezing, you'd think the crypto trajectory would be straight up - but it isn't.

Are institutional banks manipulating crypto as well?

(serious question - I'm a complete boomer when it comes to crypto)

I think crypto is the logical extreme in speculation. People are literally bidding on nothing.

 

[devil21]

Any crypto folks out there want to explain the latest trends to me?? In theory, crypto would be a hedge against inflation and would act similarly to gold or silver. But in practice, it seems to mirror tech stock speculation instead. Am I reading this incorrectly? With all the fiat troubles and bank account freezing, you'd think the crypto trajectory would be straight up - but it isn't.

Are institutional banks manipulating crypto as well?

(serious question - I'm a complete boomer when it comes to crypto)

Crypto has turned into an unregulated piggy bank for Wall St., among other uses. As stocks fall and margin calls are made, crypto is liquidated for cash to cover the margin calls. Once markets reverse and start rising again, profits from shorts and options sales during the volatility are stashed back into the unregulated piggy bank. That's one reason. Crypto has become the swiss army knife of unregulated digital "assets". Piggy bank, money laundering, bribe and payoff vehicle, speculation, etc.

 

[oyarde]

Germany sending anti tank weapons and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian embassy has invited Israelis to fight against russia.

 

[oyarde]

Putin has put nuclear forces on high alert . UN reports 264 civilian Ukraine casualties with 64 dead. No signs of inflation decreasing that I see.

 

[oyarde]

Rumors are russian central bank will hold no limit repo auction tomorrow

 

[oyarde]

EU announces it will send weapons to Ukraine , block russia media and shut air space to russian owned planes ( EU has already lasted longer than I thought it would so I couldnt have predicted that , the rest however not so hard ) . US nationals advised immediate exit.

 

[oyarde]

US cutting of russian central bank for dollar transactions. Still no improvement on inflation as the fed does nothing. Gold 1912.30 after reaching 1919.70 earlier. Russian stock market closes , ruble takes a dive .

 

[Madison320]

US cutting of russian central bank for dollar transactions. Still no improvement on inflation as the fed does nothing. Gold 1912.30 after reaching 1919.70 earlier. Russian stock market closes , ruble takes a dive .

I read that Russia just raised their rates to 20%. We're officially bankrupt if we raise to about 12%, that's where we can't even make the interest payment even if it was 100% of our budget. The actual max where our economy collapses is somewhere around 2%.

As I've said many times I'm not expecting my inflation hedges to to anything until the fed reverses course from the current "tightening cycle" (less loose in reality). Remember that nothing has really happened yet. We're still at close to historically high levels of looseness with rates at zero and QE at around 100 billion a month.

Things will really start to get interesting in the next few months although it may take awhile for the lack of QE and and rate hikes to crash the economy.

I figured out why some of my oil stocks got hammered, despite a big rise in oil. Some of the rigs were in Russia.