He has to make a decision on a 3rd Party bid soon -- if he waits until the convention, it'll be too late. He'll probably go to the convention, if it looks like it'll be brokered. If within the next month or so it looks like McCain will be a shoo-in at the convention, then he'll probably go Third Party.
Convince me that a brokered convention is the best scenario...
- Thread starter Starks
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He has to make a decision on a 3rd Party bid soon -- if he waits until the convention, it'll be too late. He'll probably go to the convention, if it looks like it'll be brokered. If within the next month or so it looks like McCain will be a shoo-in at the convention, then he'll probably go Third Party.
grizzums
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Well, I can safely say...if donations dry up....Paul will be forced to call it quits, so please continue to DONATE.
http://www.ronpaulwhitehouse.com/
my dad said he'd donate another 500 to Paul (IF he announces 3rd party) (he donated 200 on Dec. 16th--but that was when it seemed like he REALLY could maybe, possibly win the Nom. I would donate 500 the day he declares (even though it will hurt financially), whereas I can't afford to give anymore (I gave just over a 1,100 in Q4 to the cause--so shut up) for his Republican run; and gramps would probably wager another 1776.00
The 2nd and 3rd tier, broader-base of supporters aren't (many or most of them) going to donate MORE--if they already have once--because TO THEM it is obvious or at least nearly certain that he's not going to get the Nom from the Republican party (I'm not saying I believe that--but they DO). However, they would be very willing and enthusiastic about supporting him in an iNDEPENDENT run.
grizzums
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Personally, I am completely torn on whether he should continue to work towards a brokered convention or shift gears into a 3rd party/ Indy run. I just do not want to see him hang it up. I am starting to believe that the Huck and McCain camps are working together and they have both got real bad blood going between them and Mitt....this could work to our advantage in a brokered scenario if Romney calls it quits soon. I know he announced he was still in, but I think Cali hurt him BIG TIME. I also think he's got to be a little embarrassed at this point with the amount of money he has spent.....and the media on his side. I don't know where his delegates would turn in that case, but I suspect that some may come to Paul because Paul finished 2nd to Romney in certain states (ME, NV, MT, AL? etc) plus I think they may not want to go to Mccain because of that bad blood and they may feel "blackballed" and may swing to Paul....???
Regardless, I'd just like to see an email from Paul clarifying or reaffirming his intentions from here on forward.
www.ronpaulwhitehouse.com <--pledge here.
Face it, the GOP has rejected us. There is no plausible path to the nomination after today, none. The next stage in our ideological struggle to save this country is to undertake an Independent run for the White House. I realize there are a lot of naysayers on this issue. Some people think it's insanely hard to do and that it cannot be done. I submit the following points to argue otherwise. If you agree, please help me spread word about the site and make sure to signup today.
Ballot Signatures:
We need to gather about 800,000 signatures nationwide to get on the ballots. We have a wonderful precinct captain system to help accomplish this, and I've read reports that to hire collectors to do the job would cost about 3 million dollars. It's absolutely ridiculous to suggest that we cannot collect these signatures.
Sore Loser Laws:
Only four states in the country present possible issues with Sore Loser laws: Texas, Ohio, South Dakota, and Mississippi. There may be legal grounds to dispute these laws. More information here and here
Votes:
Polling done by Rasmussen a week ago showed that Ron Paul would garner between 7-11% of the vote in four-way matchups that included Bloomberg, Paul, and the GOP/Dem nominees. More info here.
Debates:
Perot got in them before, no reason we cant pull it off as well. If the polling above is true, then the media might actually let us in. Double digit support is the key, and it looks like we might be able to manage that.
A New Era:
We've learned some important lessons and made some mistakes, but the campaign activities have improved at the official level, and the grassroots got their much needed wakeup call that our attention starved methods are not very effective. We still have powerful weapons at our disposal, namely the 24 hour news cycle, new media, high name recognition, record high voter dissatisfaction, etc... Most importantly, we have the winning message and the dedication to spread it. Educating people takes time, we shouldn't give up yet.
..
Optimistic scenario for a brokered convention
In a brokered convention, anything could happen. There have been very few of them. At two of the brokered conventions -- the Democratic convention in 1968 and Garfield at the Republican convention in whatever year that was -- people who weren't even running for president earlier in the year got nominated. Why? Because they were the only candidates everyone could agree on.
The Republican convention is 7 months away. That's an eternity in politics. During the last 7 months Guiliani went from front-runner to obscurity, McCain went from has-been to front-runner. Thompson, the great hope of the neocons went nowhere. Anything can happen over the next 7 months.
That means we have 7 months to continue raising money, getting the message out, gaining endorsements, and gaining convention delegates. In the next 7 months, Dr. Paul will have a best-selling book debut. There will be 7 more months of endless war and economic rot -- problems to which only Dr. Paul has any realistic answers. There will be relentless attacks on McCain, who everyone will be gunning for, because he's the front-runner.
At the convention, the party's conservatives won't support either McCain or Huckabee (except for a portion of the evangelicals, who think falsely think Huckabee is one of them). The evangelicals won't support Romney, because he's a Mormon and evangelicals view Mormons as a cult. Nor will they support McCain. So, you have a real stalemate.
Ron Paul has appeal to a significant portion of evangelicals. He also has significant appeal to the party's conservatives. The only sticking point is the war, which in another 7 months more and more people will be tired of, especially when they start realizing that the country's economic problems are directly tied to war spending.
So, Dr. Paul will go to the convention with some clout. He will be given a speaking slot, where his views will be heard by millions of ordinary Americans, perhaps for the first time. There will be over 100,000-plus Ron Paul supporters surrounding the convention center. They will far outnumber the supporters of the other candidates. In addition, there will also be thousands of anti-war protestors. It'll be like the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, although hopefully it won't be as violent. Amidst this chaos, Dr. Paul could emerge as the one candidate who can appeal to all the various factions in the party: anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-regulation, pro-Constitution, etc.
Also, people want change, as can be seen by the popularity of Obama. Ron Paul is the only Republican who offers any real policy change.
In addition, there are wild cards. McCain (or one of the other candidates) could be assassinated. Or he could have health problems. He doesn't really look healthy to me, with that puffy face. Any one of these could change the dynamics of the presidential race immediately, with unpredictable results. Or McCain's widely-reputed bad temper could flare up, making him suddenly look less presidential. Or there could be revelations of past malfeasance (I'm sure McCain has plenty of skeletons in his closet). Dr. Paul could be will-positioned to take advantage of any unforseen changes in the status quo and capitalize on them.
Don't lose heart yet. A lot can happen in the next seven months, especially if McCain isn't a clear-cut winning when the smoke clears Wednesday morning.
In a brokered convention, anything could happen. There have been very few of them. At two of the brokered conventions -- the Democratic convention in 1968 and Garfield at the Republican convention in whatever year that was -- people who weren't even running for president earlier in the year got nominated. Why? Because they were the only candidates everyone could agree on.
The Republican convention is 7 months away. That's an eternity in politics. During the last 7 months Guiliani went from front-runner to obscurity, McCain went from has-been to front-runner. Thompson, the great hope of the neocons went nowhere. Anything can happen over the next 7 months.
That means we have 7 months to continue raising money, getting the message out, gaining endorsements, and gaining convention delegates. In the next 7 months, Dr. Paul will have a best-selling book debut. There will be 7 more months of endless war and economic rot -- problems to which only Dr. Paul has any realistic answers. There will be relentless attacks on McCain, who everyone will be gunning for, because he's the front-runner.
At the convention, the party's conservatives won't support either McCain or Huckabee (except for a portion of the evangelicals, who think falsely think Huckabee is one of them). The evangelicals won't support Romney, because he's a Mormon and evangelicals view Mormons as a cult. Nor will they support McCain. So, you have a real stalemate.
Ron Paul has appeal to a significant portion of evangelicals. He also has significant appeal to the party's conservatives. The only sticking point is the war, which in another 7 months more and more people will be tired of, especially when they start realizing that the country's economic problems are directly tied to war spending.
So, Dr. Paul will go to the convention with some clout. He will be given a speaking slot, where his views will be heard by millions of ordinary Americans, perhaps for the first time. There will be over 100,000-plus Ron Paul supporters surrounding the convention center. They will far outnumber the supporters of the other candidates. In addition, there will also be thousands of anti-war protestors. It'll be like the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, although hopefully it won't be as violent. Amidst this chaos, Dr. Paul could emerge as the one candidate who can appeal to all the various factions in the party: anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-regulation, pro-Constitution, etc.
Also, people want change, as can be seen by the popularity of Obama. Ron Paul is the only Republican who offers any real policy change.
In addition, there are wild cards. McCain (or one of the other candidates) could be assassinated. Or he could have health problems. He doesn't really look healthy to me, with that puffy face. Any one of these could change the dynamics of the presidential race immediately, with unpredictable results. Or McCain's widely-reputed bad temper could flare up, making him suddenly look less presidential. Or there could be revelations of past malfeasance (I'm sure McCain has plenty of skeletons in his closet). Dr. Paul could be will-positioned to take advantage of any unforseen changes in the status quo and capitalize on them.
Don't lose heart yet. A lot can happen in the next seven months, especially if McCain isn't a clear-cut winning when the smoke clears Wednesday morning.
Optimistic scenario for a brokered convention
In a brokered convention, anything could happen. There have been very few of them. At two of the brokered conventions -- the Democratic convention in 1968 and Garfield at the Republican convention in whatever year that was -- people who weren't even running for president earlier in the year got nominated. Why? Because they were the only candidates everyone could agree on.
The Republican convention is 7 months away. That's an eternity in politics. During the last 7 months Guiliani went from front-runner to obscurity, McCain went from has-been to front-runner. Thompson, the great hope of the neocons went nowhere. Anything can happen over the next 7 months.
That means we have 7 months to continue raising money, getting the message out, gaining endorsements, and gaining convention delegates. In the next 7 months, Dr. Paul will have a best-selling book debut. There will be 7 more months of endless war and economic rot -- problems to which only Dr. Paul has any realistic answers. There will be relentless attacks on McCain, who everyone will be gunning for, because he's the front-runner.
At the convention, the party's conservatives won't support either McCain or Huckabee (except for a portion of the evangelicals, who think falsely think Huckabee is one of them). The evangelicals won't support Romney, because he's a Mormon and evangelicals view Mormons as a cult. Nor will they support McCain. So, you have a real stalemate.
Ron Paul has appeal to a significant portion of evangelicals. He also has significant appeal to the party's conservatives. The only sticking point is the war, which in another 7 months more and more people will be tired of, especially when they start realizing that the country's economic problems are directly tied to war spending.
So, Dr. Paul will go to the convention with some clout. He will be given a speaking slot, where his views will be heard by millions of ordinary Americans, perhaps for the first time. There will be over 100,000-plus Ron Paul supporters surrounding the convention center. They will far outnumber the supporters of the other candidates. In addition, there will also be thousands of anti-war protestors. It'll be like the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, although hopefully it won't be as violent. Amidst this chaos, Dr. Paul could emerge as the one candidate who can appeal to all the various factions in the party: anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-regulation, pro-Constitution, etc.
Also, people want change, as can be seen by the popularity of Obama. Ron Paul is the only Republican who offers any real policy change.
In addition, there are wild cards. McCain (or one of the other candidates) could be assassinated. Or he could have health problems. He doesn't really look healthy to me, with that puffy face. Any one of these could change the dynamics of the presidential race immediately, with unpredictable results. Or McCain's widely-reputed bad temper could flare up, making him suddenly look less presidential. Or there could be revelations of past malfeasance (I'm sure McCain has plenty of skeletons in his closet). Dr. Paul could be will-positioned to take advantage of any unforseen changes in the status quo and capitalize on them.
Don't lose heart yet. A lot can happen in the next seven months, especially if McCain isn't a clear-cut winning when the smoke clears Wednesday morning
In a brokered convention, anything could happen. There have been very few of them. At two of the brokered conventions -- the Democratic convention in 1968 and Garfield at the Republican convention in whatever year that was -- people who weren't even running for president earlier in the year got nominated. Why? Because they were the only candidates everyone could agree on.
The Republican convention is 7 months away. That's an eternity in politics. During the last 7 months Guiliani went from front-runner to obscurity, McCain went from has-been to front-runner. Thompson, the great hope of the neocons went nowhere. Anything can happen over the next 7 months.
That means we have 7 months to continue raising money, getting the message out, gaining endorsements, and gaining convention delegates. In the next 7 months, Dr. Paul will have a best-selling book debut. There will be 7 more months of endless war and economic rot -- problems to which only Dr. Paul has any realistic answers. There will be relentless attacks on McCain, who everyone will be gunning for, because he's the front-runner.
At the convention, the party's conservatives won't support either McCain or Huckabee (except for a portion of the evangelicals, who think falsely think Huckabee is one of them). The evangelicals won't support Romney, because he's a Mormon and evangelicals view Mormons as a cult. Nor will they support McCain. So, you have a real stalemate.
Ron Paul has appeal to a significant portion of evangelicals. He also has significant appeal to the party's conservatives. The only sticking point is the war, which in another 7 months more and more people will be tired of, especially when they start realizing that the country's economic problems are directly tied to war spending.
So, Dr. Paul will go to the convention with some clout. He will be given a speaking slot, where his views will be heard by millions of ordinary Americans, perhaps for the first time. There will be over 100,000-plus Ron Paul supporters surrounding the convention center. They will far outnumber the supporters of the other candidates. In addition, there will also be thousands of anti-war protestors. It'll be like the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, although hopefully it won't be as violent. Amidst this chaos, Dr. Paul could emerge as the one candidate who can appeal to all the various factions in the party: anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-regulation, pro-Constitution, etc.
Also, people want change, as can be seen by the popularity of Obama. Ron Paul is the only Republican who offers any real policy change.
In addition, there are wild cards. McCain (or one of the other candidates) could be assassinated. Or he could have health problems. He doesn't really look healthy to me, with that puffy face. Any one of these could change the dynamics of the presidential race immediately, with unpredictable results. Or McCain's widely-reputed bad temper could flare up, making him suddenly look less presidential. Or there could be revelations of past malfeasance (I'm sure McCain has plenty of skeletons in his closet). Dr. Paul could be will-positioned to take advantage of any unforseen changes in the status quo and capitalize on them.
Don't lose heart yet. A lot can happen in the next seven months, especially if McCain isn't a clear-cut winning when the smoke clears Wednesday morning
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