CNN Poll

[Eli]

It looks like Romney's lead is solidifying according to yesterdays national CNN poll
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/13/romney-back-on-top-in-new-cnn-national-poll/

According to the survey, 34% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they're likely to support the former Massachusetts governor for the nomination, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18%, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania each at 15%. Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands at 9% in the poll, with former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 4%.

Full Poll Results: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/im...1/13/rel1a.pdf
It looks like a well sampled national poll with a normal margin of error...EXCEPT uh oh whats this?

If you dig way down to the secondary questions
It appears that 100% of the republicans in the nation are white seniors over the age of 50.

and every republican in the country is a suburbanite living in the south

Is it a coincidence that ALL of the respondents surveyed in this poll match CNN's NH exit polls to Romney's strongest factors exactly?
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh

 

[AhuwaleKaNaneHuna]

Remember, Post Titles get tweeted out. Um, who are you promoting?

 

[Eli]

Remember, Post Titles get tweeted out. Um, who are you promoting?

Yes I know
It's called baiting. The MSM does it to you all the time. Little unread blogs from all the major outlets like WSJ put Ron Paul in their blog headlines to attract a bunch of RP supporters, then try to convince them to not vote for him with the content.

 

[PastaRocket848]

You needed more proof or that? We knew the establishment would pull for him this year about 10 minutes after he dropped out in 2008.

 

[KingNothing]

Why promote Romney? I don't follow what the thread title has to do with anything.

 

[blazeKing]

If over 50 is all the Republicans have, they are in big trouble for attacking young RP voters.

 

[AhuwaleKaNaneHuna]

Yes I know
It's called baiting. The MSM does it to you all the time. Little unread blogs from all the major outlets like WSJ put Ron Paul in their blog headlines to attract a bunch of RP supporters, then try to convince them to not vote for him with the content.

lol I understand that. It's just with people having ADD, how many will just walk away with the title in their head and not follow it to the article. lol Whatever, just sayin.......

 

[sailingaway]

I recall a poll like that from CNN (GOP only in a caucus where you could register on the spot) started the media surge of Santorum.

 

[parocks]

It looks like Romney's lead is solidifying according to yesterdays national CNN poll
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/13/romney-back-on-top-in-new-cnn-national-poll/



Full Poll Results: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/im...1/13/rel1a.pdf
It looks like a well sampled national poll with a normal margin of error...EXCEPT uh oh whats this?

If you dig way down to the secondary questions
It appears that 100% of the republicans in the nation are white seniors over the age of 50.

and every republican in the country is a suburbanite living in the south

Is it a coincidence that ALL of the respondents surveyed in this poll match CNN's NH exit polls to Romney's strongest factors exactly?
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh

You just don't know how to read these.

 

[Naraku]

The Under 50 number obviously indicates they looked at younger people. You just don't see a break-down by age group.

 

[lakefx]

It looks like Romney's lead is solidifying according to yesterdays national CNN poll

If you dig way down to the secondary questions
It appears that 100% of the republicans in the nation are white seniors over the age of 50.

Well now isn't that convenient, CNN. I think i'm developing a small twitch in my right shoulder every time I hear a CNN Poll mentioned. Gotta say though, 15% support from the Republican 50 over crowd in SC seems pretty promising.


CNN - Criminal News Network.

 

[axiomata]

Do we know for certain that the N/A's mean the demographic in question was not surveyed?

Based on how the MOE changes between say Southern @ 7.5% and total @ 4.5% it would lead me to believe that the total sample size was larger than the southern sample size.

It still doesn't explain why they only recorded results by certain demographics.

 

[socal]

Looking at Paul's and Romney's under 50 and 50 and over breakdowns, it looks like they split the sample about 50-50 between those two groups. (I came up with 53% under 50 and 47% 50 and over just using those two candidates. One could get a better approximation if one were to take all the rounded integer percentages into account).

 

[parocks]

Well now isn't that convenient, CNN. I think i'm developing a small twitch in my right shoulder every time I hear a CNN Poll mentioned. Gotta say though, 15% support from the Republican 50 over crowd in SC seems pretty promising.


CNN - Criminal News Network.

Over 50 - 9%
Under 50 - 22%

 

[parocks]

Looking at Paul's and Romney's under 50 and 50 and over breakdowns, it looks like they split the sample about 50-50 between those two groups. (I came up with 53% under 50 and 47% 50 and over just using those two candidates. One could get a better approximation if one were to take all the rounded integer percentages into account).

Look at the margins of error.

3 age groups have the same margins of error. When the margins of error are the same, roughly the same number of people were talked to.

3 age groups the same - 18-49, 50-64, 65+ - all have a 8.0 margin of error. When the margin of error is low, that means they talked to more people, when the margin of error is high, or is N/A that means they didn't talk to many people. N/A means that they feel the margin of error is so high that the results for that sub-group are pretty much useless.

Here's Ron Paul by age in SC.

each of the 3 groups roughly the same size

18-49 - (22%)
50-64 - (11%)
65+ - (4%)