CNN entrance polls coming up after commercial break

[moderate libertarian]

Optimistic signs but just a word of caution:


Don’t get burned on the exit (entrance) poll

By Jon Cohen
The Tuesday evening kick-off for the Republican nomination contest brings not only the first real votes of 2012, but also the first analyses (and bogus analyses) of exit polls.

In Iowa, it’s actually an “entrance poll,” a survey of randomly selected voters as they enter randomly selected caucus precincts across the state. But the outcome is the same: The data quickly become the main material for subsequent scrutiny of who showed up to vote and why they voted the way they did.

Numbers from the poll – conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool – will be blithely tossed around, so some background is important to poll watchers.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...entrance-poll/2012/01/03/gIQAx5lbYP_blog.html


In real polls, if RP is in top two, that would be great news.

 

[rprprs]

First they do ceremony--then one person speaks for each candidate, THEN they vote.

There is not always someone to speak for each candidate. One caucus place I saw on CSpan had no one prepared for Ron.. someone had to step up at the last minute

 

[Agorism]

I'm repeating this post because it's an exact tie in the 710 sample of CNN entrance poll not a slight Romney lead. The rounding errors caused weirdness

I talked to the guy who is lives next to Scott Rasmussen and knows his stuff.

hxxp://davidwissing.com/?p=16974

He says he also believes that both had exactly 170 supporters in the CNN entrance poll.

Note I said this last page

working backwards.... 0.2401*710 doesn’t = a full person.

I think 170 each in the CNN poll

Working the math backwards

 

[abruzz0]

According to this caucus chart, Santorum is spreading across Iowa at a rapid pace. WTF!!!!

 

[tajitj]

120k will vote, about 1,000 have reported. Paul is winning large population centers.

 

[Liberty74]

Results hitting at http://iowacaucus.com/results/

Holy crap watching the votes come in is giving me a nervous breakdown. Some counties don't even have Paul in top 4. Yea I know it's early.

 

[RPES1]

intrader blowing up

 

[StilesBC]

CNN is a RP lovefest. Winning with evangelicals on entrance polls.

 

[Ronulus]

According to this caucus chart, Santorum is spreading across Iowa at a rapid pace. WTF!!!!

I know i'm very nervous.

 

[tuggy24g]

Ron Paul is winning with the first results 48 percent!!

 

[Liberty74]

CNN is a RP lovefest. Winning with evangelicals on entrance polls.

There is no way that is TRUE. If so...

 

[Rudeman]

All voters entrance poll:
Paul 24%
Romney 23%
Santorum 19%
Newt 13%

From CNN, so that includes later arrivals.

 

[jkob]

Winning with all voters!

 

[Liberty74]

According to this caucus chart, Santorum is spreading across Iowa at a rapid pace. WTF!!!!

Yes but a lot of those west counties have small populations. Look at the X/out Y being reported.

 

[rp2012win]

New entrance polls....ron paul by 1%!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tuggy24g]

yeah it is nice but means nothing at this point

 

[Tina]

Ron Paul is winning with the first results 48 percent!!

Did you notice how John King blew off the huge lead. I'll be damned. He looked like he didn't want people to notice.

 

[mbburch]

Paul just passed Romney on Intrade!!!

 

[tuggy24g]

Want a good laugh 5 votes for Huntsman

 

[Agorism]

Late arrivals gave Paul a boost.

Amazing. I would have guessed the opposite.