Can you win a bid to be a congresman as a Libitarian?

[driller]

I am looking to run for distric 3 of AZ. i am trying to decide if I should run third party like Libitarian. Over 40% of the people in the district are Republican and position is filled with a Republican that has been in office for more than two terms and people like him even though he has done nothing good.

AZ is very Republican, and running against an incumabnt and in the same party looks bad. I am not a Democrat and don't think I can run as one.

The Libitarian party is a possibility, but what would the likelyhood of winning be?

 

[cmasslibertarian]

It might be tough to win as a Libertarian, but it's probably a hell of a lot tougher to unseat an incumbent in your own party. I'd get in touch with the Arizona branch of the LP. http://www.azlp.org/

 

[Tdcci]

It might be tough to win as a Libertarian

No, you are guaranteed a tough time, many people will not vote outside their registered party and even if they wanted to, many good people will not vote for a third party candidate because they think they can't win. Join the Republican party, you will have much higher chances of winning and will be taken seriously in the media, and you will truly be part of the movement to take the Republican party back to its roots.

 

[nate895]

It's possible. If you were to live in Alaska, I'd even say it's likely.

 

[driller]

i just don't think it is a good idea to try and beat an incumbant republican if possible. Perhaps I should just put plans on hold and hope the incumbant leaves the house in a few years.

 

[defe07]

Maybe try to run as an independent with the endorsement of the Libertarian Party. Of course, specify that you represent Ron Paul's platform. Remember Bernie Sanders won his 8 terms for U.S. House as an independent, even though he's a democratic socialist. I'd seriously try to run as an indy with an endorsement from the Libertarian Party, until we see a big chance for 3rd party candidates to be electable (which could be soon if we keep our fingers crossed).

 

[Tdcci]

defe07, what makes it easier to go independent than third party? Bernie Sanders is the exception to the rule, he has a powerful grassroots movement, special endorsements (Howard Dean, former Incumbent who retired, Barack Obama campaigned for him!) in an overwhelmingly independently/Democratically minded state. He was listed on the Democratic ballot and won that in his senate run. If you can't challenge the Incumbent in the primaries, what makes you think you can win the general election?

 

[defe07]

defe07, what makes it easier to go independent than third party? Bernie Sanders is the exception to the rule, he has a powerful grassroots movement, special endorsements (Howard Dean, former Incumbent who retired, Barack Obama campaigned for him!) in an overwhelmingly independently/Democratically minded state. He was listed on the Democratic ballot and won that in his senate run. If you can't challenge the Incumbent in the primaries, what makes you think you can win the general election?

Yeah, that's very true. Of course, if I were running, I'd run as a Libertarian but, as many of us know, voters are more open to vote for an indy than a Libertarian . However, with what Paul has done, we could get lucky and win soon and I think many voters might just start to turn to the Libertarian Party and vote for it consistently. If we can follow through with what Paul did, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Libertarians being elected to Congress but we need to stay together.

 

[life_boy]

No one is going to just show up as a Libertarian and win an important political seat like a seat in the House. This is where the third party thinking has been misguided. Remember, there are even libertarians who simply vote down the party line. There just aren't enough of them to win elections yet. If you build up a political resume, local/county seats, mayor, state level and then move into something bigger, as a libertarian all along, then your chances are better. If people know who the individual is, they may vote for the individual; if they don't know who the individual is, party preference down the line.

So, if this will be your first political office to hold, run as a Republican. I know it's hard to unseat a Republican incumbent, but upon winning, you're guaranteed most of those votes in a general. The challenge is the primary. Knowing your district and where you will be able to pick up the votes you need will be helpful.

 

[Flash]

Depends what state. Alaska and New Hampshire.. may be.

 

[driller]

Thanks everyone. This is something I am meeting with several people from several parties to discuss. I am getting more and more frustrated with this decision. If I do run for the house seat i will give up making about $400,000 a year in income. I will end up spending about $100,000 out of pocket to run and my time from earning an income.

So to do this I want my odds to be increased. i don't want to send a message that will be forgotter, I want to win and make a difference.

 

[driller]

About 140 members of the House asked Shedegg to stay in office. On Thursday his staff said he may not resign and we would know on Monday. There are already 4 people trying to go for his seat as republicans. All those people are well known politically in that district. he is in district 3.

I am in district 2. I would rather win in district 2 than 3 because of where i live and all my connections. my competition is Tren Franks dist 3 AZ. He got 59% of the votes during the last 3 terms. When you see his Bio I wonder how he was able to win to begin with. his fundraising is only about $450,000 which is not too hard to beat. There is alot from corporations and individuals.

Trent is actually a decent person and a decent congressman. he has not done too much in office, but he has not done too much bad either.

 

[life_boy]

Driller:
I commend you for your interest as well as your careful planning. A Ron Paul candidate -- even one in every district in the country -- is truly effective if they can rally enough resources and people together to get into office. Clawing after 5%-20% of the vote is probably not a large enough percentage to put the message of liberty (as it differs from the mainstream parties) on the forefront of people's minds. You're wise to make sure a run is worthwhile before jumping into it prematurely. I think in many ways the 2008 Congressional campaigns are what they are and we should back those as much as we can instead of seeking where we can put other candidates in. But I certainly will not bar your conscience on the matter, if you feel you should run.

You could even think further away, possibly 2010? We want the movement to grow, both the people interested and involved as well as those seeking office under similar platforms as Ron Paul. That way we can support even more liberty candidates entering the fray in 2010 and can hopefully reap even better results than we may be able to this time around (but, the elections are certainly not over yet and we still have some impact yet to make!). Since we likely will not have a Ron Paul presidency to ride into victory, this will allow further time for planning and strategy and preparing political resumes for future political office runs.

Additionally, I've heard some state that Shedegg is a good congressman. I have no idea. What are your thoughts?

 

[Rhys]

that's tough. you have just as good a shot at running in the GOP and moving the debate... or running for something else for now. i'd go for it in the GOP

 

[Ogren]

Take a lesson from paul, if you gonna run, run as a registered dem or republican. A libertarian will never get into office. You can get elected as a republican and vote libertarian on ever bill that comes before you.

 

[life_boy]

Take a lesson from paul, if you gonna run, run as a registered dem or republican. A libertarian will never get into office. You can get elected as a republican and vote libertarian on ever bill that comes before you.

And until you run for President, most people are never going to notice.

 

[driller]

I have been told by people that ran as a libertarian and lost big time, to run as a rep or dem.

I am a registered rep. I have always been rep. How would I run Dem?

 

[life_boy]

How would I run Dem?

If you used to be a registered Dem before Paul or if you are in a heavily Democratic district and felt you should run as a Dem.

There is a running debate over whether Ron Paul candidates should try and take over the Democratic party as well as save the Republican party. It's really a matter of conscience, I suppose.

 

[Cleaner44]

About 140 members of the House asked Shedegg to stay in office. On Thursday his staff said he may not resign and we would know on Monday. There are already 4 people trying to go for his seat as republicans. All those people are well known politically in that district. he is in district 3.

I am in district 2. I would rather win in district 2 than 3 because of where i live and all my connections. my competition is Tren Franks dist 3 AZ. He got 59% of the votes during the last 3 terms. When you see his Bio I wonder how he was able to win to begin with. his fundraising is only about $450,000 which is not too hard to beat. There is alot from corporations and individuals.

Trent is actually a decent person and a decent congressman. he has not done too much in office, but he has not done too much bad either.

Just so we have this info:

Arizona
Renzi, Rick; Arizona, 1st
Franks, Trent; Arizona, 2nd
Shadegg, John B.; Arizona, 3rd
Pastor, Ed; Arizona, 4th
Mitchell, Harry E.; Arizona, 5th
Flake, Jeff; Arizona, 6th
Grijalva, Raul M.; Arizona, 7th
Giffords, Gabrielle; Arizona, 8th

Trent Franks is my congressman.

 

[VaderM5]

This is where I think this community can make a difference in a race. We can work to give a LP or any other long shot candidate a fighting chance at office.