I'm not totally buying this, and I think I disagree with Mises on this. If we think of it purely from a supply/demand perspective, it makes sense that a higher monetary velocity will produce price inflation. To illustrate this, suppose we focus on just two participants in an economy, say a baker selling bread and a farmer selling corn. The frequency of their transactions -will- have an effect on price. Suppose the baker sells his bread for $10 and the farmer sells his corn for $10. Each of them has only a limited supply of their goods, say 10 pieces of corn and 10 pieces of bread. Consider two scenarios - low velocity and high velocity:
Low Velocity (low number of transactions): The baker sells just one loaf of his bread to the farmer for $10. The baker then takes the farmer's $10 and buys one ear of the farmer's corn for $10.
High velocity (high number of transactions): The baker and farmer make the exact same transaction - which is essentially one loaf of bread for one ear of corn, but they do this many times - say 8 times. At the end of their transactions, even though the money supply hasn't increased any (since they simply exchanged the same $10 back and forth), the baker is left with 2 loafs of bread remaining while the farmer also has 2 ears of corn remaining. The money supply hasn't increased any - both the farmer and baker still only have their original $10 to spend. But the money in their economy is now chasing a fewer number of goods due to a higher monetary velocity. And when the same amount of money is chasing fewer goods, the result will be price inflation.
I'm not sure why it's even controversial, as simple supply and demand curves and daily life experiences of both buyers and sellers prove it out.
In economics, supply is defined as the amount of a given thing a seller is willing to sell at a given price, which ALWAYS includes
a time component for any given supply curve. This is seen with grocery stores and clearance prices, as prices that are reduced for whatever didn't sell within a reasonable period of time. Those lower prices in turn affect demand, as just about every consumer knows firsthand. I don't NEED more sirloin or broccoli, but as long as they're on sale, I may stock up. Price is fundamentally about what the market will bear, and the frequency of transactions (specific velocity of quantities of a given thing sold within a given period of time) does affect price. If EVERYTHING sells, not only are no clearance prices offered, but it also serves as a signal to the seller that THE PRICE IS TOO LOW. And you can fully expect the price to rise as a result. If too little of the same thing sells within that same given time period, clearance prices will be offered at some point, and it will be a signal to the seller that THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH. As long as there is still a profit margin to be had, the item will continue to be stocked, but at a lower price.
So I'm with you. It doesn't matter whether Mises got that one wrong, or if his thoughts were just incomplete. Velocity is still very much a worthless measure, because it's an overgeneralized aggregate jumbling that makes no magnitude and direction distinctions, which makes it appear as a zero sum game. However, drill down to specifics and it becomes obvious that SPECIFIC velocity changes do affect price -- assuming the direction of the velocity component (increase or decrease) is toward YOUR PREFERRED item.
If the Fed reduces interest rates, and the government steps in with Fannie and Freddy to make normal taxpayers liable and on the hook for other people's loans and purchases, then the velocity (magnitude and direction) of debt money will accelerate toward everyone in that particular supply chain -- starting with the banks. And THAT VELOCITY toward THAT particular good will drive prices UP. Likewise with government guaranteed student loans. More people bidding up prices, the cost of education goes up for everyone, and not just those who take on no loans, but try to pay out of savings, or as they go. The price accelerates as a result of increased velocity in the direction of THAT particular service.