I don't think Paul can win.
I'm trying to be realistic. A victory in the primaries just isn't in the cards, and that's not what I hope to get out of this.
I just want someone to shame the warmongers and slobbering torturers in what used to be my party. Paul's the only person with the courage to do that.
What everyone will realize at some point is that 80% of the people who still are Republicans actively WANT the war with Iraq escalated, they WANT war with Iran, they WANT people tortured in our name, they WANT the Bill of Rights [other than the 2nd Amendment] to be toilet paper. That's what they're looking for in a candidate.
Paul can't win in that party. He can make it interesting as long as there are several mainstream frontrunners to split the torture vote, but that won't last past South Carolina. All the mainstream candidates other than the eventual candidate will withdraw and that will be it.
All Paul can do is be the conscience the Republican party doesn't want to hear. But that's desperately important work and I'll support him as long as he does it.