Brokered Convention Strategy 2 - Based on WV outcome

[Redcard]

If that's true, then no one was gamed, because the same rules would have applied to the Romney deal. We didn't make an agreement to have 3 of their delegates vote for Paul, the agreement is 3 Huck delegates RESIGN and they are replaced with 3 Paul delegates.

This crap about the first round of voting and bound/unbound isn't an issue unless Ron Paul wins 5 state's majority of delegates, if he doesn't do that he's not on the ballot in the first round anyway. If he does make it on the ballot in the first round, we will vote for him regardless of the consequences.

This gets Ron Paul people to the national convention, not to mention all the free press about the agreement, and we hurt Romney.

Romney was the one who was gamed in WV.

You don't GET to vote in the first round if you're bound. The state CHAIR votes FOR the bound delegates in the first round.

That's why you're BOUND.

 

[parocks]

That is why WE NEED TO WIN STATES!! We need Romney and Huckabee to "kingmake" us at the state level. Those states we win (especially winner take all states) are taking away delegates from Romney and Huckabee so that they cannot kingmake McCain.

In other words, they cannot kingmake McCain with delegates that WE have.

I'm not sure that I understand the process fully, but I don't think you do either.

In some states people who are bound to vote for the candidate that the state voted for on the first ballot are not necessarily supporters of that candidate.

For example, let's say state X has a primary, and McCain won the primary. All the delegates are bound to vote for McCain on the first ballot.

At a different time, state X has a process (a caucus, a state convention, etc) to determine what people are going to stand on the floor and vote for McCain on the first ballot.

Let's also say that we're working hard to get our people through this process, get them to be the actual people who are gonna have to vote for McCain on the first ballot.

So, what happens. Our people vote for McCain on the first ballot, Ron Paul on the second in St. Paul.

 

[LarryWhite]

Yeah, well, his campaign says that the deal doesn't happen.

So I'll believe him, since he's holding the delegates.

Huck NATIONAL didn't know about the deal, wasn't involved, because they left after the speech. The national campaign doesn't decide who the delegation is, the STATE people and the delegates themselves do.

 

[Redcard]

Huck NATIONAL didn't know about the deal, wasn't involved, because they left after the speech. The national campaign doesn't decide who the delegation is, the STATE people and the delegates themselves do.

You'll see.

Just give it time. You'll see. Just don't be surprised when it happens, okay?

 

[parocks]

You don't GET to vote in the first round if you're bound. The state CHAIR votes FOR the bound delegates in the first round.

That's why you're BOUND.

In a brokered convention, isn't the first round irrelevant anyway?

 

[LarryWhite]

You don't GET to vote in the first round if you're bound. The state CHAIR votes FOR the bound delegates in the first round.

That's why you're BOUND.

Ok, point taken, so what? A brokered convention strategy is designed around the votes AFTER the first round. We don't have any way to win the first round vote regardless of whether there are 3 Paul people from WV or not, any strategy has to start at the 2nd round.

 

[Redcard]

In a brokered convention, isn't the first round irrelevant anyway?

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on if Huck sees it as a brokered convention before hand, and drops out to get the VP nomination behind the scenes.

For example, if he drops out, in WV, what happens to the delegates? That's going to be the big question. If that happens, don't be surprised if the Ron Paul delegates that are supposedly on the list go away and get replaced by Mike Huckabee delegates who will then go to McCain.

 

[LarryWhite]

You'll see.

Just give it time. You'll see. Just don't be surprised when it happens, okay?

I won't be surprised at all, but I know those Romney guys would not have followed through.

When you're faced with a choice between slim to none, you chose slim.

There was no other way, I don't get why you all do not understand that. There was no way to get Paul the 18 delegates, we were lucky to get what we did whether it happens or not, and we hurt Romney and Mccain, who would be far worse.

 

[parocks]

Yeah, well, his campaign says that the deal doesn't happen.

So I'll believe him, since he's holding the delegates.

He might not know about it. I think that others have answered this with more specificity. I think that some do know that our names were on the list.

 

[LarryWhite]

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on if Huck sees it as a brokered convention before hand, and drops out to get the VP nomination behind the scenes.

For example, if he drops out, in WV, what happens to the delegates? That's going to be the big question. If that happens, don't be surprised if the Ron Paul delegates that are supposedly on the list go away and get replaced by Mike Huckabee delegates who will then go to McCain.

If we get our names on the delegate list and the paperwork filed, they can't take us back off the list unless we step down.

Before we get the paperwork done, yes, they could do that, but once we're on the list, they can't take us back off without us resigning.

I believe what happens is when they resign, the candidate 'releases' their delegates, letting them vote for whomever. The Huck supporters in WV will be far easier to convert than the Romney people were.

 

[parocks]

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on if Huck sees it as a brokered convention before hand, and drops out to get the VP nomination behind the scenes.

For example, if he drops out, in WV, what happens to the delegates? That's going to be the big question. If that happens, don't be surprised if the Ron Paul delegates that are supposedly on the list go away and get replaced by Mike Huckabee delegates who will then go to McCain.

Well, aren't there some rules about who the delegates are?
I honestly don't know. There was a list. We were on the list. Is the list meaningless? I don't think that candidates can simply pick who they want their delegates to be at the last minute in all states. I mean, there are procedures and we're working to get our bodies in the right place.

And the point I think I was trying to make was that the first ballot was irrelevant.

I wasn't saying that who the delegates were was irrelevant.

In theory, Huckabee's delegates were set when the WV delegation turned in the list. If Huckabee wants to make a deal for the VP slot, he then has to ask those 18 people to vote for McCain. 3 are unlikely to make that deal, because they're our people, but I can't say that it's a certainty that all of the 15 others would vote for McCain. They may, for whatever reason, simply hate McCain. I think, though, that he would be able to get many, if not most, or all of those 15 to go along with that deal. In other states, where the delegate process and the primary process are divorced, it would be more difficult for the candidate getting the guaranteed first ballot votes to move their delegates to McCain.

 

[parocks]

If we get our names on the delegate list and the paperwork filed, they can't take us back off the list unless we step down.

Before we get the paperwork done, yes, they could do that, but once we're on the list, they can't take us back off without us resigning.

I believe what happens is when they resign, the candidate 'releases' their delegates, letting them vote for whomever. The Huck supporters in WV will be far easier to convert than the Romney people were.

I think that in WV, if Huck is getting the VP slot from McCain, a lot of those 15 are gonna vote for McCain. They may be released, but they may be given instructions by the candidate.

As an aside, good deal in WV.

 

[LarryWhite]

I can tell you Mccain burnt a lot of bridges here in WV during the convention, he was the only one who didn't show, he had many supporters leave after the first vote, and the party people noticed. There was much Mccain bashing going on during the 2nd vote among rank and file Republicans.

 

[Eleutheros]

Yes, but we can.

So if they kingmake us, (which they won't), won't that be giving US the in to the Whitehouse?

Look, what you're saying is contradictory.

In one sentence, you say that Romney and Huckabee need to kingmake us. Make us win delegates.

The next sentence, you say that if they do that, we take delegates away, so they can't kingmake.

You did not read my post correctly. I said Romney and Huck delegates/voters need to kingmake us at the STATE level, so that it would prevent them from kingmaking McCain at the NATIONAL level. There is nothing contradictory about that.

Right now our sole goal is to get a brokered convention to the point that no one candidate has a sole advantage or can exploit loopholes to get a sole advantage. Our best position at the Convention is to get the delegates unbound so that the nomination is determined solely by the will of the delegates voting with no external influence whatsoever (that won't happen perfectly but I hope you get my drift).

The only way this can happen is for Romney, Huck, and Paul voters/delegates work together to meet this end.

Why do you think they are going to give us delegates? It does NOTHING for their interests to give Ron Paul delegates. Nothing. Do you think they're better served if this convention goes brokered? News flash.. if this convention goes brokered, then one of them will kingmake on the spot.

Exactly, BUT! If they don't have enough delegates between them, that can't happen.

Huck has probably figured out that he's not going to make it. His goal now is to spoil Romney, and try to possibly get in the VP position.

Romney can still catch McCain, so his goal is to focus on McCain and at the same time not let Huck poison the well.

None of these candidates gain anything by giving delegates to Dr. Paul. For Huck, it costs him a shot at VP. For Romney, it costs him the shot at President.

OTOH, they probably won't gain anything NOT giving votes to Dr. Paul either. If they stand any chance at holding out until Convention, this is the only practical way.

(sidenote): If Huck tries to kingmake McCain at the Convention, I hope McCain screws him over by giving the VP slot to somebody else; I think he'll do that anyway, McCain being the jerk that he is.

 

[Eleutheros]

In a brokered convention, isn't the first round irrelevant anyway?

EXACTLY!!!

 

[Eleutheros]

I won't be surprised at all, but I know those Romney guys would not have followed through.

When you're faced with a choice between slim to none, you chose slim.

There was no other way, I don't get why you all do not understand that. There was no way to get Paul the 18 delegates, we were lucky to get what we did whether it happens or not, and we hurt Romney and Mccain, who would be far worse.

Very good post.

By working with Romney and Huck, we make the primaries a win-win-win situation all the way to convention. If Paul wins, so do Romney and Huck. If Paul loses, so do Romney and Huck.

We need to generate an upset McCain's newly-anoited frontrunner status and PDQ.

Maybe one of us can work out a truce with the folk at HucksArmy? I'm willing to do that, if you want.

 

[Eleutheros]

I'm talking about using his delegates to weasel his way into speaking at the GOP. This is the thing I'm least sure about, not even sure if it's possible. But if it happened it would be monumental

I think i misunderstood with that reply, it will be pretty clear very soon whether this will work or not. If McCain sweeps the Chesapeake primary, it's over. We can do this and have a third party run going in a month or two, if it fails. McCain will either wrap it up or he wont

QFT from a related thread.

Final bump for now, gotta get back to work. Please think about this, we need a radically different strategy and this just might work. If McCain gets a runaway lead, Dr. Paul will either need to campaign outside the GOP or drop out entirely. Simple as that. This is real talk here.

 

[pendragon]

as true today

I can tell you Mccain burnt a lot of bridges here in WV during the convention, he was the only one who didn't show, he had many supporters leave after the first vote, and the party people noticed. There was much Mccain bashing going on during the 2nd vote among rank and file Republicans.

Larry speaks truth - and it is no less today
and didn't know it at the time, but McCain and the McCain Camp are not making happy campers in the state Parties (not just WV) - and they still aren't

many regular Republicans are disgusted by what they witnessed of the treatment of Ron Paul Republicans - and some of these are Delegates to the National Convention

McCain is making enemies - and his enemies can be our friends, but not if the Ron Paul nation stays knocked down - they will not ally themselves to a Ron Paul nation that doesn't get back up...

allying one's self to anyone standing, no matter how distasteful, is always better to any laying on the ground refusing to get up

Ron Paul Nation, who is gonna keep you down?