Brokered Convention Anyone?

[kombayn]

This is not good.

http://news.yahoo.com/elections/map/

Just checked out the Alaska Caucus and it has Romney winning.

 

[klamath]

Roney has over 50% of the allocated delegates so far. Santorum can't seem to win outside rural midwest counties, Mtt has shown solid control of the entire northeast, the west parts of the south and the industrial midwest. He has it in the bag barring something big.

 

[tbone717]

Why else would RP have stated on CNN he has the 2nd most delegates, and Doug Wead mention this same thing on MSNBC?

Because he potentially did. We could have had a plurality of delegates in IA, MN etc to have us in 2nd (a week or so ago, not now), but even still 2nd place even the most optimistic numbers will not allow us to amass 50% of the people on the floor. The whole premise is based on RP people running for delegate in states that bind their delegates and then being released - that would require 1144 of the delegates being our people. I can see us getting a few hundred, but half of all the slots? That is a huge stretch considering there are three other candiates in this race that are all trying to do the same thing.

 

[kombayn]

^This is why Ron needs to run 3rd Party.

 

[tbone717]

Roney has over 50% of the allocated delegates so far. Santorum can't seem to win outside rural midwest counties, Mtt has shown solid control of the entire northeast, the west parts of the south and the industrial midwest. He has it in the bag barring something big.

And my guess is that he would have over 50% of the delegates if those very same ones were to become unbound and it was between him and Paul. Agree?

 

[tbone717]

^This is why Ron needs to run 3rd Party.

I understand your reasoning, but there is no way he can raise enough money to compete in a half dozen states let along all 50. Both the GOP and Dems will spend hundreds of millions on this race - Paul would be lucky to raise 50 million, and considering a lot of his supporters are financially exhausted from supporting him this far, even that 50 milion might be hard to reach.

 

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Because he potentially did. We could have had a plurality of delegates in IA, MN etc to have us in 2nd (a week or so ago, not now), but even still 2nd place even the most optimistic numbers will not allow us to amass 50% of the people on the floor. The whole premise is based on RP people running for delegate in states that bind their delegates and then being released - that would require 1144 of the delegates being our people. I can see us getting a few hundred, but half of all the slots? That is a huge stretch considering there are three other candiates in this race that are all trying to do the same thing.

Okay, well said. This is more or less what I am thinking.

 

[coffeewithchess]

And my guess is that he would have over 50% of the delegates if those very same ones were to become unbound and it was between him and Paul. Agree?

Again, the issue here is that RP has been in more "attack" mode than "message" mode. The majority of Republican voters only know what they do from RP from Fox News, Hannity, Levin, Rush, etc.
The majority of Republican voters are too lazy to be bothered with things like voting records, budget plans, etc.

Think about it, if Republican voters cared about the NATIONAL debt...wouldn't they be voting for the ONLY candidate that has a balanced budget in 3 years, without cutting Social Security or Medicare? The campaign has done a TERRIBLE job at targeting the right voters, and addressing the issues holding RP back.

If you KNOW what is holding you back, and you don't address it...you can't move forward.

 

[kombayn]

I understand your reasoning, but there is no way he can raise enough money to compete in a half dozen states let along all 50. Both the GOP and Dems will spend hundreds of millions on this race - Paul would be lucky to raise 50 million, and considering a lot of his supporters are financially exhausted from supporting him this far, even that 50 milion might be hard to reach.

It's why he should partner with both the Libertarian Party & Constitution Party, he just runs a joint-ticket. Right now RJ Harris & Gary Johnson are running for the LP. I think RJ Harris could get the VP nomination from the CP along with the LP. He'd get on 50 states and the LP would be juiced and jacked to want to fund-raise. But Ron's campaign really needs to look at the big picture. Ron is place 2nd in a lot of states that are independent friendly. People don't like Romney or Santorum and the way this is keeping up it's going to be a Romney/Santorum ticket.

 

[Constitutional Paulicy]

I understand your reasoning, but there is no way he can raise enough money to compete in a half dozen states let along all 50. Both the GOP and Dems will spend hundreds of millions on this race - Paul would be lucky to raise 50 million, and considering a lot of his supporters are financially exhausted from supporting him this far, even that 50 milion might be hard to reach.

So tbone. Is there any outcome that you can see where Dr. Paul wins the nomination? And if not what do you think he can best bargain for in the convention with the delegates that he does accumulate?

 

[tbone717]

Again, the issue here is that RP has been in more "attack" mode than "message" mode. The majority of Republican voters only know what they do from RP from Fox News, Hannity, Levin, Rush, etc.
The majority of Republican voters are too lazy to be bothered with things like voting records, budget plans, etc.

Think about it, if Republican voters cared about the NATIONAL debt...wouldn't they be voting for the ONLY candidate that has a balanced budget in 3 years, without cutting Social Security or Medicare? The campaign has done a TERRIBLE job at targeting the right voters, and addressing the issues holding RP back.

If you KNOW what is holding you back, and you don't address it...you can't move forward.

One of my major beefs with Paul is who he attacks. He doesn't go after Obama and the Dems, he attacks "history", "the way we've always done things", "the last 40,50,100 years". I love his ideology but I have been saying for a while (ok honestly 4 years now) he is a terrible salesman.

 

[angelatc]

It's why he should partner with both the Libertarian Party & Constitution Party, he just runs a joint-ticket. Right now RJ Harris & Gary Johnson are running for the LP. I think RJ Harris could get the VP nomination from the CP along with the LP. He'd get on 50 states and the LP would be juiced and jacked to want to fund-raise. But Ron's campaign really needs to look at the big picture. Ron is place 2nd in a lot of states that are independent friendly. People don't like Romney or Santorum and the way this is keeping up it's going to be a Romney/Santorum ticket.

I like the Americans Elect option. Everybody can sign up to be delegates, and we can draft him as the candidate, but he doesn't have to turn his back on the GOP until later.

 

[tbone717]

So tbone. Is there any outcome that you can see where Dr. Paul wins the nomination? And if not what do you think he can best bargain for in the convention with the delegates that he does accumulate?

No I don't see it. I have tried looking at this seven ways to Sunday and I can't resolve it mathematically or logically. As far as bargaining, I would love to see an ally as the VP choice. DeMint would be a nice one for me, and while I do not agree with everything DeMint stands for, it would be an olive branch to the RLC wing. I'd also be very pleased if the Fed issue and real spending cuts were part of the platform. This "reduction in the rate of growth" stuff really gets under my skin, and even the Limbaugh crowd doesn't buy that line of BS. So at this stage I think if I saw that occur, I think we would have made some gains philosophically, and it would set ourselves up nicely for the mid terms and the next nomination run.

 

[klamath]

And my guess is that he would have over 50% of the delegates if those very same ones were to become unbound and it was between him and Paul. Agree?

the numbers that I am seeing show Romney with 332 delegates while combining all of santorum, Paul and newts only adds up to 241. If that ratio keeps up he will have the 1144 by the end of the primaries.

 

[floridasun1983]

I'd like to just stop and thank tbone717. If ever there was a voice of reason and rationality in the wilderness of RPF's, its been his. After reading so much fantasy and delusion around here, its refreshing to see posts like his. Well done sir.

 

[tbone717]

I like the Americans Elect option. Everybody can sign up to be delegates, and we can draft him as the candidate, but he doesn't have to turn his back on the GOP until later.

Honestly, if he does that he gets 10% at best and basically hands the election to Obama on a silver platter. It's one thing to have our people sit out, and the GOP lose the election, it's another thing to be the direct cause of the loss. Paul will forever be remembered as Perot is - a spoiler. We've got dozens of guys running for office that have aligned themselves with Paul, and if Paul becomes the scourge of the GOP I think it could do some serious damage to our guys.

 

[tbone717]

the numbers that I am seeing show Romney with 332 delegates while combining all of santorum, Paul and newts only adds up to 241. If that ratio keeps up he will have the 1144 by the end of the primaries.

Agree. It's late - my head is spinning with too many numbers LOL

 

[Suzu]

Given that Santorum will clean up in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, and Kansas (the next four contests) there's a good chance of that being the case.

Santorum will NOT be winning in MO. Get that idea out of your head right now. The RP grassroots here in my state are very strong and determined.

 

[J_White]

So far till today , how many delegates have been contested ?
Up till now I might believe that Dr.Paul would have a lot of delegates, but maybe not 50% of them.
And who knows what will happen at the convention ? How will the Santorum delegates vote when they become unbound ?

 

[J_White]

I also think, for Santorum to make a challenge to Romney, Gingrich has to drop out and endorse him.