BREAKING: Carl Levin to Retire

[Barrex]

WHat's the point? it would be an embarrassing and crushing loss.

In your opinion.... and you made it perfectly clear. You obviously feel strongly about it.

I was asking in case he does decide to run. If people act like you do it will be truly impossible to win. Elections are not just about registered democrats or republicans. It is also about resources (money, volunteers etc.). If Ron, Rand, Massie, Amash, YAL, C4L, liberty volunteers and others join in he can win. To say otherwise is just defeatism and irrational.

Question is not can he win. Question is: What would it take for him to win?

How many volunteers? How many phone calls? How many visits by Rand, Massie, Cruz? How much money?....

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Folks, you're not going to convince these liberal statist voters in MI to go against the DNC and vote in a GOPer to the Senate.

Yes, they will entertain a GOPer like Snyder for Governor but they will never send Snyder to the U.S senate unless he becomes really popular after 2 terms and retains a personal following. And Snyder is a big government dummy who wants to bankrupt his state through medicare expansion so liberal fools are happy with him.

If Amash ran for Senate it would be a crushing, embarrassing and expensive loss. He should stay in his SAFE district which has been carved out for him and which they tried to make more liberal to weaken him last time but that's his seat for a decade where they will try and make it even worse for him next time.

Snyder is mostly a dumby but that's not what he ran on. And, libs mostly don't like him because of his decision to put on financial manager on Detroit and his signing of RTW. Despite his Romney style of governance, he's hedged because the state legislature won't let him pull this medicaid expansion nor offer obamacare exchange.

Let me say that I appreciate your posting on most issues but your blatant subversion of the facts on this open Senate seat is astounding. You pass yourself off as some senior scholar on the pulse of Mich but you're from KA iirc. I don't pretend to be all knowing, I'm just presenting recent political history not to mention my ties to C4L here over and above the contacts and allies I have in quite a few districts w/ many state and district comm members - all of whom are looking for an Amash Senate run. If I thought his chances were bleak, I'd be the first to say as it does make sense to keep a safe House seat all other things removed. Yet, there is no better opportunity to go for Senate and to have a better than average playing field going into a republican year. You're trying to liken this effort to the circumstances surrounding Bills' run but there is nothing in common. You've made your point in no uncertain terms, so let JAmash do what he decides to do and stop salting this effort.

 

[itshappening]

In your opinion.... and you made it perfectly clear. You obviously feel strongly about it.

I was asking in case he does decide to run. If people act like you do it will be truly impossible to win. Elections are not just about registered democrats or republicans. It is also about resources (money, volunteers etc.). If Ron, Rand, Massie, Amash, YAL, C4L, liberty volunteers and others join in he can win. To say otherwise is just defeatism and irrational.

Question is not can he win. Question is: What would it take for him to win?

How many volunteers? How many phone calls? How many visits by Rand, Massie, Cruz? How much money?....

What would it take for Amash to win... moving to a red state.

Seriously, the Dems will pick a woman and campaign against his VAWA vote and the liberal rubes will fall for it no matter how much you explain it to them and it will be a crushing 60/40 loss. That's the level of debate in a state like Michigan.

It would be almost too easy for the Obama Machine to defeat Amash and once they do they will never stop crowing about it.

 

[erowe1]

What would it take for Amash to win... moving to a red state.

Seriously, the Dems will pick a woman and campaign against his VAWA and the liberal rubes will fall for it no matter how much you explain it to them. That's the level of debate in a state like Michigan.

How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.

 

[itshappening]

How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.

Because the woman can grandstand more against his VAWA vote and get women to make sure they vote Democrat to stop this man being their senator.

Can you imagine MSNBC and the national media covering that race? It will be embarrassing and Justin would not stand a chance. They will spend whatever it takes to make everyone aware of Justin's votes with their own spin attached and it just sounds really bad. 2 million voters aren't going to read his Facebook explanations.

 

[Keith and stuff]

How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.

? Women make up more than 50% of voters. Women, at least recently, tend to do better than men in general elections, at least in Northern states. This is pretty widely known and reported. I know people talk about it at GOP meetings in my state. All of the congressmen in my state are women.

 

[erowe1]

Women, at least recently, tend to do better than men in general elections, at least in Northern states. This is pretty widely known and reported.

Got a source for that?

ETA: Looking over recent US Senate elections, I don't see any support for that.

 

[erowe1]

Because the woman can grandstand more against his VAWA vote and get women to make sure they vote Democrat to stop this man being their senator.

Can you imagine MSNBC and the national media covering that race? It will be embarrassing and Justin would not stand a chance. They will spend whatever it takes to make everyone aware of Justin's votes with their own spin attached and it just sounds really bad. 2 million voters aren't going to read his Facebook explanations.

I take it you wouldn't think very favorably about Rand running for president either then.

 

[UtahApocalypse]

I will end with this...

It's an open seat, non presidential year. That will not happen again. It's now or never. He risks it going for the Senate or resigns himself to dozens of years only in the House.

 

[itshappening]

I take it you wouldn't think very favorably about Rand running for president either then.

Rand doesn't have to win blue states to garner the electoral college votes he needs to become president, although it helps.

 

[erowe1]

Rand doesn't have to win blue states to garner the electoral college votes he needs to become president, although it helps.

Michigan's not a blue state. It's exactly the kind of state someone has to win to become president. If the only states in play for someone who thinks the government is too big are the deep red ones, then the presidency is not in play for us at all.

 

[itshappening]

Michigan's not a blue state. It's exactly the kind of state someone has to win to become president. If the only states in play for someone who thinks the government is too big are the deep red ones, then the presidency is not in play for us at all.

When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?

 

[FSP-Rebel]

When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?

First of all, prez elections have historically went dem here but we're talking midterm here and in recent times things have bended red. Silver thinks the dems will take this seat so I'll have to defer to him, just surprised he's so sure about it. Lastly, the electoral votes would always go GOP if they were doled out via congressional district appropriation, which is what our party is intent on doing for the future.

 

[Uriah]

As of 2/20/2013

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/

Michigan. The longtime Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin, has not yet decided whether to run for re-election. If he retires, the race should still be Democratic leaning: Michigan is somewhere between a blue state and a swing state. But Michigan Republicans have a number of competent and moderate representatives whom they could nominate to replace Mr. Levin.

 

[erowe1]

When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?

Probably 88. But the only elections Republicans won since then were 2000 and 2004, and Michigan was in play for those elections. It was in the same category as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and happened to go Dem by small margins. In 2000 that was actually a surprise. It's still in that same basic place. My guess would be that in presidential elections, the percentages in Michigan are generally pretty close to the nationwide popular vote.

 

[supermario21]

Bush lost Michigan by 5.1 and 3.4 points I think in 00 and 04. Any chance voter ID gets passed in Michigan? Anything to suppress Detroit turnout would be good. I hate to say that but Michigan, like Pennsylvania, is a 1-city Democratic state, with help from Flint-Saginaw and Ann Arbor-Lansing to lesser extents.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Any chance voter ID gets passed in Michigan?

Afaik, we have voter id. Voting requires state id or driver's license and lately they have scanners where the id are ran through making sure of the legitimacy.

 

[TheTyke]

Well, the risk makes me nervous too, but I'm definitely in the "trust Amash to make the right decision" camp. He was barely on our radar before winning the congressional seat, did his own fundraising and obviously knew when to seize the opportunity. I can only assume he will get his ducks in a row and work out the possibilities before making a decision.

Besides, Itshappening is one of McConnell and establishment pundits' best buddies, while arguing too frequently and strongly against our allies for my comfort.

 

[PaleoPaul]

It would be awesome, but the fact that it's so union-dominated makes me nervous. Obama won there by 16 points in 2008 and 9 points in 2012. And the fact that Amash is so right-wing...I don't know...

 

[erowe1]

It would be awesome, but the fact that it's so union-dominated makes me nervous. Obama won there by 16 points in 2008 and 9 points in 2012. And the fact that Amash is so right-wing...I don't know...

I wouldn't call Amash "so right wing." He's an independent. He'd have an easier time getting non-Republicans to vote for him than the partisan hacks would, not a harder time.