Blog: Medina upcoming polls (was 'fading')

[jmdrake]

Lol I'm sorry but a couple of weeks ago we were praising PPP's accuracy and cheering for the 24% now we are making excuses. Enough with the excuses, she fell behind, now go make up for it by spreading her message. Stop with the damn excuses.

I think the point is that if the poll isn't including dems and independents it might not show the whole story. That and if people get discouraged by a poll that hasn't even been released it might make the poll a self fulfilling prophecy. Best case scenario Medina has someone doing early voting exit polls. But then again if she had it, then it might not be smart to release it. If the dems are waging a "stealth war" against Perry there's no reason to tip him off to that fact.

 

[undergroundrr]

I'm thrilled with the thread re-title. Thanks.

 

[Epic]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/texas-poll-preview.html

Debra Medina actually leads the race with people who think she's not a truther- with 33% to 32% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 29% for Rick Perry. But with voters who think she is a truther, or that she might be, she gets only 7% to 51% for Perry and 30% for Hutchison. What portion of the electorate do each of those groups comprise? We'll tell you tomorrow.

If 20% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 33
Hutchison: 32
Medina: 28

If 30% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 36
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 25

If 40% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 38
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 23

If 50% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 40
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 20

I think we will see Medina in the low 20s in this poll.

 

[libertybrewcity]

Who knows, Medina could be down, but the other candidates could also be down. I am guessing an increase in the undecided voters.

 

[rp08orbust]

Ugh, this is torture thinking she'd be in the LEAD if she had given a simple "No" (or if Glenn Beck were not a POS back-stabber).

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Debra Medina actually leads the race with people who think she's not a truther- with 33% to 32% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 29% for Rick Perry. But with voters who think she is a truther, or that she might be, she gets only 7% to 51% for Perry and 30% for Hutchison. What portion of the electorate do each of those groups comprise? We'll tell you tomorrow.

Ouch! She really shot herself in the foot big-time by not just simply saying "hell no."

Weren't there some truthers here who said being a truther helps ones' electoral chances?

 

[TCE]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/texas-poll-preview.html



If 20% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 33
Hutchison: 32
Medina: 28

If 30% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 36
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 25

If 40% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 38
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 23

If 50% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 40
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 20

I think we will see Medina in the low 20s in this poll.

You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens. She had a nice debate bounce, but that's all it was.

 

[undergroundrr]

You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens.

[EDIT for misread] I thought Epic's speculation was quoted from PPP.

I would agree that high teens is a realistic result for this poll. But count me among those who think that there are too many unknown factors in this completely unusual election for any pollster to account for.

 

[CoreyBowen999]

guys Im going to be optimistic on this one. Today I woke up in my town of 60,000 with signs all over it of Medina. Id say over 50 signs were strategically placed all over. Her name recognitian is up, shes surging, and she CAN prevail. Believe guys.

 

[John Taylor]

The best thing for freedom is to elect Rand Paul in that race. Yeah, I'd like to see bigger fields in these debates, but the benefit of getting Johnson booted from the debates outweighs the moral hazard, especially since it's likely that Johnson is still polling in the very low single digits.

Nathan, you're way off base. The more viable Johnson is, the more trouble for Rand. If you have two outsider candidates, and one with establishment backing, it's a done deal, Trey wins.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens. She had a nice debate bounce, but that's all it was.

Remember, she had only one poll above 20%. She was at 18.6% in the realclearpolitics poll average.

If Perry and Bailout started running positive ads and stopped attacking each other, that will hurt medina's poll numbers.

 

[TexFootballMom]

Let me put this question to yall if I may.

If Beck lost 500,000 (out of what? 3 million?) viewers after the in famous interview - I realize those were not all Texans but....

that's a lot of pissed off Texans - you think?

How would you relate this to the poll - the one no one has seen yet?

 

[jmdrake]

Ouch! She really shot herself in the foot big-time by not just simply saying "hell no."

Weren't there some truthers here who said being a truther helps ones' electoral chances?

I've never seen any truthers say that. That I think a lot are reading more into this poll that's actually there. Medina was never ahead in this race. It's likely that a lot of people who were not going to vote for her anyway are in the "think she's a truther" category. And since she's now firmly denied being a truther, most of her supporters naturally fit in the "She's not a truther" category.

That said, I've never seen a poling operation dribble out news the way PPP is doing.

 

[FreeTexan68]

There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

 

[revolutionary8]

There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

Welcome!

Trust is HUGE. Esp. for a TEXAN.
From all I have seen, it takes em' a while to "turn", but when they do, watch the f out.

 

[Nathan Hale]

That's what Fox said about Ron Paul..... Are we really becoming Fox?

I'm not talking about morality. I'm talking about strategy. Yeah, morally everybody should be in the debate. But strategically, it benefits Rand Paul to eliminate Johnson from contention.

 

[Nathan Hale]

Nathan, you're way off base. The more viable Johnson is, the more trouble for Rand. If you have two outsider candidates, and one with establishment backing, it's a done deal, Trey wins.

Not sure why you're saying I'm way off base, as every other word of your post agrees with me. My point was that while it's morally nice to have open debates with as many candidates as possible, it's in Rand's interest strategically to remove Johnson as a viable candidate from the race, thereby ending the potential vote split between them.

 

[james1906]

There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

Awesome!

We need more Dems and Inds to get out and vote against politics as usual from both sides of the aisle.

 

[Epic]

There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

Welcome, thanks for joining the forum. Debra does believe in drug decrim, even if she can't really say too much about it, cause of the GOP electorate.

 

[rp08orbust]

Update: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232970