Black Friday?

[devil21]

PPT was on the job during Trump's anti-China presser (if you can call it that) today. It was scripted like that presser a couple months ago where they delayed the presser until before the close so the PPT could prevent a sell-off. Trump even called them out by name "Presidents Working Group" during the speech and it was almost like he was telling them to get started. Right after that, the Dow started jumping up by 10 and 20 points when it was tanking.

 

[Krugminator2]

Market getting really frothy. All sorts of absolute dog shit is moving. Doesn't mean the market can't run higher but it will get slammed down sooner rather than later. Might just be a short lived pullback but this is the wildest market I have seen since the Bitcoin bubble.

Kind of wild that the market went from despair a couple of months ago to euphoria.

 

[devil21]

Market getting really frothy. All sorts of absolute dog shit is moving. Doesn't mean the market can't run higher but it will get slammed down sooner rather than later. Might just be a short lived pullback but this is the wildest market I have seen since the Bitcoin bubble.

Kind of wild that the market went from despair a couple of months ago to euphoria.

Fed is on it. No worries. Buy all the things! Cruise lines, airlines, 2000 p/e ratios, -50% GDP estimates, 40m+ unemployed, riots in most major cities, meh it's all money good baby.

 

[Krugminator2]

Fed is on it. No worries. Buy all the things! Cruise lines, airlines, 2000 p/e ratios, -50% GDP estimates, 40m+ unemployed, riots in most major cities, meh it's all money good baby.

I don't like making topping predictions because tops tend to be slower and more persistent. But just like the bottom so many things are lining up at extremes right now. This is the craziest market I have ever seen. Sentiment was at a major bullish extreme early in the year. It went to the most bearish by a ton of metrics in history. Now a lot of things I look at like the moving average of the equity put/call are back at another extreme. The junk stocks I trade have made huge moves.

I thought that selloff had a high probability of fake out and this bull market would end like 1999-2000 with all the money printing and stimulus. I suspect the zero commissions brokers went to is playing a role somehow a lot like when E-Trade and other online brokerages came to be 20 years ago.

Not calling a permanent top but a lot of new people are going to get their hands slammed in car door soon. I hope this keeps going but my experience is this is more likely than not close to the end for the time being. Think a 5 to 10 percent selloff is immenent.

 

[Krugminator2]

SPY at 320 feels like a short. Should trade down at some point over the next week.

 

[oyarde]

I don't like making topping predictions because tops tend to be slower and more persistent. But just like the bottom so many things are lining up at extremes right now. This is the craziest market I have ever seen. Sentiment was at a major bullish extreme early in the year. It went to the most bearish by a ton of metrics in history. Now a lot of things I look at like the moving average of the equity put/call are back at another extreme. The junk stocks I trade have made huge moves.

I thought that selloff had a high probability of fake out and this bull market would end like 1999-2000 with all the money printing and stimulus. I suspect the zero commissions brokers went to is playing a role somehow a lot like when E-Trade and other online brokerages came to be 20 years ago.

Not calling a permanent top but a lot of new people are going to get their hands slammed in car door soon. I hope this keeps going but my experience is this is more likely than not close to the end for the time being. Think a 5 to 10 percent selloff is immenent.

At one point today after lunch I looked at the Dow and it was 27,222 . That was 9 1/4 percent off the years high. That seems incredibly optimistic considering the numbers that are going to be for companies the first two quarters .

 

[Krugminator2]

At one point today after lunch I looked at the Dow and it was 27,222 . That was 9 1/4 percent off the years high. That seems incredibly optimistic considering the numbers that are going to be for companies the first two quarters .

It is funny that you couldn't find a bull on planet Earth on the way down (except me and I was way early and wrong) and now everyone is bullish after a 40% move up. Penn Gaming was one of the stocks that I lost my ass on. The doomers thought it was going bankrupt at 3.75 and now at 40 I am seeing analysts upgrade it. Literally nothing changed fundamentally in that time. Markets are the perfect window into how many people make decisions on crowd consensus and how few people think for themselves.

 

[Krugminator2]

This is the 10 day moving average of the equity put/call ratio over the last five years. Bigger extreme now than even the beginning of the year.

Craziest speculative market ever. Nikola Motors has NO product or revenue and now valued more than Ford Motor.

 

[devil21]

This is the 10 day moving average of the equity put/call ratio over the last five years. Bigger extreme now than even the beginning of the year.

Craziest speculative market ever. Nikola Motors has NO product or revenue and now valued more than Ford Motor.

Chart/pic doesn't display for me. Does is show call buying (and inversely, call selling) volumes running up while put volumes drop?

 

[Krugminator2]

Chart/pic doesn't display for me. Does is show call buying (and inversely, call selling) volumes running up while put volumes drop?

Lot of speculative call buying. Lot of complacency.

For some reason stockcharts.com makes it difficult to link images.

 

[devil21]

Jerome Powell just said with a straight face that all of the Fed programs have been instituted in order to allow markets to once again effectively price risk

 

[Krugminator2]

SPY at 320 feels like a short. Should trade down at some point over the next week.

SPY hit 301. Absolute bloodbath. These "obvious" ideas always seem so much easier to implement in hindsight.

 

[Madison320]

SPY hit 301. Absolute bloodbath. These "obvious" ideas always seem so much easier to implement in hindsight.

Today's selloff seemed to come out of nowhere. Luckily I don't trade short term.

One reason given was a "spike" in corona cases. But deaths keep falling. Personally I think cases rising and deaths falling is a good thing.

 

[Krugminator2]

Today's selloff seemed to come out of nowhere. Luckily I don't trade short term.

One reason given was a "spike" in corona cases. But deaths keep falling. Personally I think cases rising and deaths falling is a good thing.

Instead of saying markets are the most overbought and speculative in history and a selloff was inevitable, articles always come up with some BS fundamental reason.

 

[Madison320]

Instead of saying markets are the most overbought and speculative in history and a selloff was inevitable, articles always come up with some BS fundamental reason.

This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?

 

[devil21]

This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?

More testing, though hospitalizations are reported as rising also.

I don't see how any of it matters since it's been proven that the tests are garbage, hospitals are lying about admissions and causes of death and there are questions about whether the tests that do sometimes work are detecting antibodies from past flu shots and recent bouts with regular flus and colds.

 

[Krugminator2]

This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?

The news media is disgusting. Fear and sensationalism sells. They completely stopped covering the virus to cover the domestic terrorists. Then now back to peddling fear even though summer is hitting and the death rate had dropped nationally.

 

[Madison320]

More testing, though hospitalizations are reported as rising also.

I don't see how any of it matters since it's been proven that the tests are garbage, hospitals are lying about admissions and causes of death and there are questions about whether the tests that do sometimes work are detecting antibodies from past flu shots and recent bouts with regular flus and colds.

I'm wondering how much the overall increase in total US deaths will be for 2020. I'm been running some number thru my head and it seems like it's only going to rise by a percent or two. You'd think it was tripling listening to the news.

 

[devil21]

PPT computers on the job today. Headline hit during JPow's Senate testimony that Beijing is closing down all schools for Covid resurgence. All markets immediately fell off a cliff, Dow dropped from +800 to +90 in a few minutes, then 10, 20 and 30 point chunks immediately started trying to push it back up. I could watch the algos continuously trying to sell-off but for every 10 point chunk drop a 20 point boost countered it. The algos finally got the message that YOU WILL NOT GO RED and stopped selling. Big chunks back up to +450, where it stayed.

Nothing resembling a market exists any more. The entire thing is engineered and rigged.


A few points from JPow's testimony.
1.) Credit markets have greatly improved but the Fed promised to buy corporate bonds months ago, which turned markets around, so we have to do it whether it's needed or not.
2.) Dem senators asked nothing but questions about how will JPow get black people those sweet, sweet Fed bux. Election year
3.) When asked about expanding the balance sheet this far, this fast, how will it be unwound? JPow replied "we don't think about that."

 

[devil21]

Dow and S&P closed red on a Friday. AFAIK that hasn't happened in a long time. Every effort was made to keep the numbers looking pretty over the weekends.

Rumors of June 21 and perhaps June 24 being interesting dates to watch.