Best Case Scenario for Ron Paul

[Galileo Galilei]

Best Case Scenario for Ron Paul

So far, Ron Paul has secured at least 42 delegates:

Ron Paul National Delegate Count Now at Least 42
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/019202.html

1191 are needed to win the GOP nomination:

2008 Republican Delegates
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html

We can hope that John McCain ends up with 1190 delegates, or less.

We can hope that (Mitt Romney + Mike Huckabee) end up with 1190 delegates, or less.

We can hope that neither Romney nor Huckabee will cut a deal with McCain.

If so, Ron Paul will become the kingmaker at the GOP national convention.

[This already happened at the West Virginia state convention:

Ron Paul Gets 3 National Delegates from West Virginia
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/019172.html]

If this scenario falls apart, Ron Paul will have to make a decision among these choices:

1) continue to fight for delegates, fight for speaking time at the national convention, continue spreading his message of liberty, and keep his seat in congress.

Upcoming Events
Feb 28
MSNBC Debate
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/

The Committee to Re-Elect Ron Paul
http://www.ronpaulforcongress.com/

2) run for president as a Libertarian, with the Constitution Party, or both.

3) some combination of the above.

Please remember, the base of Ron Paul's support is basically proportional to the Internet's share of the media pie. The Internet continues to grow. Ron Paul's support is concentrated among those under the age of 30.

The Scientific Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the American Revolution all took about five years to really catch on.

The Ron Paul Revolution started in 2007, and it will continue right on up until 2012!

Scientific Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_revolution

Industrial Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution

American Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolution

 

[sharedvoice]

Relax, there is still a long way to go. This will be a brokered convention. McCain will not get the National Delegates required before the convention. There is still a long way to go before August. Anything could happen.

 

[ronpaulitician]

I think this is the proper way to go about it. Figure out all of our options, the pros and cons, the requirements, etc.

The kingmaker scenario, frankly, doesn't appeal to me one bit. Paul having the power to get either McCain or Huckabee elected as the winner of the GOP would only matter if Paul were to run in the general election outside of the GOP, giving him the chance to select the least formidable opponent to win the GOP ticket.

 

[yongrel]

I'm thinking that in the event that Rp doesn't win, he is gonna go Kingmaker at the convention, and we'll see what happens.

The conservative media is gonna spend the next month or so attacking McCain nonstop. Rush is gonna be gloves off. McCain won't break 1700 delegates.

 

[tamor]

Thanks, Galileo

 

[ronpaulitician]

For choice #2, when would such a decision need to be made to have a reasonable shot at success? Are there any requirements? What about an independent run, how does that compare to running third party?

 

[No1ButPaul08]

Relax, there is still a long way to go. This will be a brokered convention. McCain will not get the National Delegates required before the convention. There is still a long way to go before August. Anything could happen.

I'm not so sure, our #1 goal at this point has to be to stop McCain. McCain has over half the delegates that have been awarded, what makes you think it's going to be brokered. He has the momentum right now, and he only needs ~450 delegates out of 988 available. Btw, I'm going to post a plan on how I think we should go about stopping McCain from getting to 1191, which will include RP supporters pulling the level for Huck or Romney when necessary for the greater goal at this point of stopping McCain

 

[Nailhead]

what do you guys mean by "go kingmaker"

 

[No1ButPaul08]

what do you guys mean by "go kingmaker"

All this kingmaker talk assumes there will be a brokered convention. Odds of that at this point are at less than 10%. This trend however, can be reversed

kingmaker means at a brokered convention RP could choose out of huck, mccain, and romney who should be the nominee. he would then be the kingmaker

i should also point out that kingmaker is not the goal, we must broker the convention and then have delegates who are actually RP supporters that are "pledged" to another candidate on the first ballot or two. At this point we could be come a real player in the convention. RP will have very little impact at the convention if we don't get to this point

 

[Galileo Galilei]

For choice #2, when would such a decision need to be made to have a reasonable shot at success? Are there any requirements? What about an independent run, how does that compare to running third party?

getting on 50 ballots as an independent is a long arduous task. Perot spent $11 million dollars in 1992 to get on the ballots.

Anothr problem with running independent, is you pit Ron Paul against his allies and activists in the Libertarian Party (and the Constitution Party).

The LP national convention is on Memorial Day weekend in Denvver, CO. If RP were really going to run 3rd party, the best strategy, in my opinion, would be to get Cynthia McKinney as a VP. She is Ron's old colleague from congress and is running with the Green Party. This would unite the three major third parties, (and what's left of the reform party). Or get Nader to be his VP.

[another interesting thought about working with McKinny is you pair a white male with a black female, an great combination, and you put to rest the BS about the old newslatters.]

The problems with this strategy are:

1) not sure RP would do it, Mckinny and Nader are not libertarians.

2) he'd lose his seat in congress I think.

Another strategy is to keep fighting as a republican, go back to congress, and run again in 2011. Imagine how big his organization would be by then! Imagine how much money he could raise, how many precinct leaders he could recruit, etc! [Imagine how sick of Clinton/Obama/McCain the people willl be by then?]

RP is in great health. HE could do it if he wanted to. With our great support, we may inspire him to do it!

 

[ronpaulitician]

I'm not so sure, our #1 goal at this point has to be to stop McCain.

Because we prefer Romney and Huckabee over McCain?

 

[Quantumystic]

Again...

Run the campaign as if we're already running in the general election. Because, in a sense, we are.

Obama's going to win the Dem nomination. And McCain most likely will make a late deal at the convention with Huckabee to secure the nomination over Romney.

Realistically, both now and later, Paul is really running against Obama and McCain. So WHY wait to campaign that way?

Set the issues out that way NOW. Get people thinking about this set of choices for the direction of the country for the next 4 years NOW. Cast the general election as a 3 way race NOW.

Contronting Americans with this scenario will be very provocative, and compelling. The vast majority will say "Hmm... this IS what we're looking at".

Up until now, the final outcome has been alot of speculation, so people have favored their candidate of choice. But now the table is set for the EndGame... and we can see what the true probabilities are. So there's an opportunity to redefine the race.

So far we haven't campaigned against Obama. By doing so, and how Obama will beat McCain... we change the perception.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

Because we prefer Romney and Huckabee over McCain?

No, because McCain has about 400 more delegates than anybody and is the only candidate that can win without a brokered convention. Every single Ron Paul supporter in Virginia should vote for Huckabee. We HAVE to broker the convention. That IS the goal. The other goal is to become a delegate, so when the delegates become unpledged, they go to Paul

edit: like i said i'm going to post all this in one plan, but we absolutely have to stop McCain from getting to 1191, once the convention goes brokered, everyone starts at 0, with the delegates choosing who they like. We have to sway some states against McCain, this cannot be done by voting for Ron Paul. However, it can be done by voting for Huck or Romney in the right states.

 

[ronpaulitician]

getting on 50 ballots as an independent is a long arduous task. Perot spent $11 million dollars in 1992 to get on the ballots.

I have a feeling we could get $11 million together in one day if Paul said, "I'll run independent if you get the money together."

Anothr problem with running independent, is you pit Ron Paul against his allies and activists in the Libertarian Party (and the Constitution Party).

Is that a real big con though? It seems that those same allies and activists might object if he were to suddenly take over their party's nomination. I think an independent run might actually go over easier.

If RP were really going to run 3rd party, the best strategy, in my opinion, would be to get Cynthia McKinney as a VP. She is Ron's old colleague from congress and is running with the Green Party.

Is there any (positive) history between the two?

Another strategy is to keep fighting as a republican, go back to congress, and run again in 2011.

I think another run in 2012 is a good option, which makes it even more important to make the rights decisions about the 2008 race.

 

[ronpaulitician]

Obama's going to win the Dem nomination.

I think it'll be easier to draw votes away from Hillary than from Obama, mainly because Obama's stance on Iraq is slightly less hawkish, so I'm still hoping for a Clinton victory. I think it's pretty much 50/50 at this point.

 

[Michael Ingram]

getting on 50 ballots as an independent is a long arduous task. Perot spent $11 million dollars in 1992 to get on the ballots.

Anothr problem with running independent, is you pit Ron Paul against his allies and activists in the Libertarian Party (and the Constitution Party).

The LP national convention is on Memorial Day weekend in Denvver, CO. If RP were really going to run 3rd party, the best strategy, in my opinion, would be to get Cynthia McKinney as a VP. She is Ron's old colleague from congress and is running with the Green Party. This would unite the three major third parties, (and what's left of the reform party). Or get Nader to be his VP.

[another interesting thought about working with McKinny is you pair a white male with a black female, an great combination, and you put to rest the BS about the old newslatters.]

The problems with this strategy are:

1) not sure RP would do it, Mckinny and Nader are not libertarians.

2) he'd lose his seat in congress I think.

Another strategy is to keep fighting as a republican, go back to congress, and run again in 2011. Imagine how big his organization would be by then! Imagine how much money he could raise, how many precinct leaders he could recruit, etc! [Imagine how sick of Clinton/Obama/McCain the people willl be by then?]

RP is in great health. HE could do it if he wanted to. With our great support, we may inspire him to do it!

For some reason I thought I heard Mckinney was crazy.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

Again...

Run the campaign as if we're already running in the general election. Because, in a sense, we are.

Obama's going to win the Dem nomination. And McCain most likely will make a late deal at the convention with Huckabee to secure the nomination over Romney.

Realistically, both now and later, Paul is really running against Obama and McCain. So WHY wait to campaign that way?

Set the issues out that way NOW. Get people thinking about this set of choices for the direction of the country for the next 4 years NOW. Cast the general election as a 3 way race NOW.

Contronting Americans with this scenario will be very provocative, and compelling. The vast majority will say "Hmm... this IS what we're looking at".

Up until now, the final outcome has been alot of speculation, so people have favored their candidate of choice. But now the table is set for the EndGame... and we can see what the true probabilities are. So there's an opportunity to redefine the race.

So far we haven't campaigned against Obama. By doing so, and how Obama will beat McCain... we change the perception.

RP ran a brilliant campaign.

In my opinion, he made only four errors, which can be corrected if he goes at it again in 2011/2012.

1) he needs to mix in some rhetoric with his facts. He needs to say; "my economic policies will brings jobs to [blank] state"

2) he needs to tout his credentials more. He needs to say; "I was a freind of Ronald Reagan". "I am the senior member of the House financial committee", etc.

3) He needs to emphasize that he has been voting against the war spending, the Patriot Act, and the funding of overseas military bases; and that the democrats have been voting for them. Most anti-war voters think Obama is actually agianst the war.

4) He needs to get the pro-life vote.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

I think it'll be easier to draw votes away from Hillary than from Obama, mainly because Obama's stance on Iraq is slightly less hawkish, so I'm still hoping for a Clinton victory. I think it's pretty much 50/50 at this point.

Good point, in some states where McCain is a lock, I would say our best option would be voting for Hillary.

 

[Eponym_mi]

the best strategy, in my opinion, would be to get Cynthia McKinney as a VP.

BARF!! A communist as VP? You're outta your frickin' mind! I would not vote for any ticket with that included that nutjob bitch...and I wouldn't be alone. Never going to happen.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

I have a feeling we could get $11 million together in one day if Paul said, "I'll run independent if you get the money together."

Is that a real big con though? It seems that those same allies and activists might object if he were to suddenly take over their party's nomination. I think an independent run might actually go over easier.

Is there any (positive) history between the two?

I think another run in 2012 is a good option, which makes it even more important to make the rights decisions about the 2008 race.

there are deadlines coming up for any independent candidate. Ask Nader how fun it is to try to go independent.

the Green Party and the Constitution Party basically hate each other.

But they both oppose the Iraq war, defend civil liberties, and oppose the world bank.

The Libertarian Party and Constitution Party have both basically offered their nomination to Ron Paul.