Bernie Sanders Has a Superdelegate Problem

[Lucille]

This is what I've been saying: Killary has essentially already won the nom with the superdelegate machinations. Sanders blew her out of the water in NH, but she came away with only one less delegate than him.

Look for the RNC to superdelegate their party soon.

In Iowa, the superdelegate picture was much the same. Clinton won by the narrowest of margins, but she snagged the support of six extra superdelegates.
[...]
If you think that the superdelegate system gives Clinton a built-in advantage, at least at this moment in time, you're right.

The Cook Political Report estimated late last month that Clinton's early advantage with superdelegates meant that she effectively started the race eight points above Sanders in the race to get enough delegates to secure the nomination.

Bernie Sanders Has a Superdelegate Problem
Hillary Clinton has already amassed an overwhelming lead among Democratic Party elites.
https://reason.com/blog/2016/02/02/bernie-sanders-superdelegate-problem

This time around, Clinton has the pledged support of 359 superdelegates, while Sanders has only 8, an advantage of 45 to 1. On rare occasions, superdelegates have changed their minds before the convention, but Bernie's deliberately outsider candidacy makes this a much less likely proposition.
[...]
It remains to be seen if the democratic socialist senator from Vermont, who takes great pride in being the longest-serving independent in the history of Congress, can get Democratic party bigwigs to believe in his "revolution."

Not gonna happen.

 

[Jan2017]

This is what I've been saying: Killary has essentially already won the nom with the superdelegate machinations. . . .

Shillary 362 superdelegates to Bernie 8 superdelegates listed at link below
(it also looks like Rand's one Iowa delegate allotment by new Iowa rules went to Kasich ? - They had had Rand with the 1 delegate yesterday at this link page)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

 

[adam220891]

This was known almost a year ago. Its a gamed system

 

[EBounding]

Go Democracy!!

 

[Todd]

Didn't we try to do this?

 

[angelatc]

Didn't we try to do this?

No, the GOP does not have Super Delegates.

But am I the only one who finds it ironic that Bernie Sanders is being deprived of what he worked so hard to earn by an elite ruling class that "knows whats best?"

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Larry Wilmore mocks New Hampshire for its ‘Merica math’ super delegate system

 

[Jan2017]

Larry Wilmore mocks New Hampshire for its ‘Merica math’ super delegate system

Wilmore continued to explain that Democrats have two classes of delegates:
“And the second class is called super delegates. Now these badass delegates are political party insiders who can vote for anyone they want at any time.
It’s like the difference between a funk railroad and a grand funk railroad.

https://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/la...re-for-its-merica-math-super-delegate-system/

 

[Zippyjuan]

In 2008 Clinton had a similar lead in Super Delegates early on but as the polls came in during the primaries, most switched to Obama. Article from that race (January 30, 2008 so timing is about exactly the same):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903570.html

Of the nearly 300 superdelegates who have committed to a candidate, out of a total of 796, Clinton leads Obama roughly by a 2-to-1 ratio, according to numerous counts. The lead is so substantial, her campaign asserts, that even if Obama pulls ahead in pledged delegates after Feb. 5, Clinton will probably retain a modest edge in the overall delegate tally.

But there is a catch. While delegates chosen in a primary or caucus are technically committed to a candidate, superdelegates can change their allegiance at any time.

He finished with twice as many superdelegates as she did- enough to win the nomination (478 to 246). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

 

[Lucille]

In 2008 Clinton had a similar lead in Super Delegates early on but as the polls came in during the primaries, most switched to Obama. Article from that race:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903570.html

He finished with twice as many superdelegates as she did- enough to win the nomination.

Had you (for once) RTFA posted before you went a-googling, you would have known that it's different this time:

The Associated Press noted that in December 2007, Clinton enjoyed the support of 163 superdelegates, ahead of Obama's 63, former Senator John Edwards' 34, and 54 superdelegates pledged to other candidates.

This time around, Clinton has the pledged support of 359 superdelegates, while Sanders has only 8, an advantage of 45 to 1. On rare occasions, superdelegates have changed their minds before the convention, but Bernie's deliberately outsider candidacy makes this a much less likely proposition.

NPR's Domenico Montanaro explains:

The Clintons have a deep history with Democratic Party politics — Bill, of course, being a former president.

Sanders, on the other hand, has never been a registered Democrat and does not have the kind of party roots that the Clintons have. That has made it very difficult for Sanders to break through with the party elite.

Sanders would argue that the elites and the "status quo" are what's wrong with Washington.

It's their party — and they'll pick the nominee they want. But Sanders hopes to overcome the elite with grass-roots energy.

These numbers show just how much of a hole he starts in.

Even though Obama was a first-term senator when he began his presidential run in 2007, he already had the private support of then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and would win the coveted endorsement of "liberal lion" Sen. Ted Kennedy before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. The upstart candidate had a long way to go to chisel into Clinton's establishment advantage, but he already had amassed some big guns.

I'm curious. Who are you voting for in the primary, zippy?

 

[Warlord]

aaah but Zippy, Sanders isnt Obama though, he's an outsider and its unlikely they will vote for him. Lucille has posted the articles

 

[jbauer]

Not gonna happen.

the DNC has their own Ron Paul revolution. Wonder if they'll let the Burn speak at their convention?

 

[Warlord]

the DNC has their own Ron Paul revolution. Wonder if they'll let the Burn speak at their convention?

Hah Hah. I very much doubt it

 

[Zippyjuan]

aaah but Zippy, Sanders isnt Obama though, he's an outsider and its unlikely they will vote for him. Lucille has posted the articles

In 2008 Obama was not considered an insider. He was the alternative to the party's established candidate.

At this point, neither is a "guaranteed winner".

 

[Natural Citizen]

No, the GOP does not have Super Delegates.

Perhaps not superdelegates in name but of the 2,470 total delegates at the Republican National Convention, 437 are unpledged delegates, who play the same role as superdelegates. Of the 437, 168 of them are members of the Republican National Committee.

Of course, GOP rules allow for superdelegates and more than half of state parties are exercising the option to make their chairman, national committeewoman and national committeeman automatic delegates.


Substantive Equivalent, was it? Remember? Heh.

 

[Warlord]

In 2008 Obama was not considered an insider. He was the alternative to the party's established candidate.

At this point, neither is a "guaranteed winner".

No, Obama was an insider. Sanders calls himself an independent. There is a huge difference... Lucille has posted the articles they're unlikely to buy into Bernie's revolution

 

[Jan2017]

No, the GOP does not have Super Delegates.

. . . an elite ruling class that "knows whats best?"

Perhaps not superdelegates in name but of the 2,470 total delegates at the Republican National Convention, 437 are unpledged . . .

GOP Governors are an automatic GOP delegate, and if your state voted for a GOP President you get a bonus or something of 3 around the state per state -
Congressional Districts/population count and the people count.

So how many states did Mittens Romney win (?) those would be where some sort of free , not decided by population, delegates come out of ?

 

[69360]

I've know this for a while.

But if for some reason Bernie really starts catching on and wins state after state, the liberals are going to go apeshit if he loses the nomination due to superdelegates.

I think Hillary will probably be the nominee even without the superdelegates though.

 

[Lucille]

http://www.backwoodshome.com/blogs/ClaireWolfe/2016/02/11/end-o-week-links/

Millennials don’t yet realize how fully the political system is rigged.

Sorry Millennials: DNC has rigged the ‘Super Delegate’ system for Hillary
http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/02...-delegate-system-hillary/#OMD6KQVYRgsEQgQS.99

With the real results becoming more well known, Russ Belville has taken to lamenting for the Huffington Post with his piece “Hillary’s Superdelegate Coup Just Confirms to Millennials: The System Is Rigged.”

Belville “wonder what kind of surprise awaits the Millennial voter the more he or she sees the results of their hard work canvassing for voters to Feel the Bern.”

Hillary’s older surrogates and supporters talking down to and denigrating young women also likely helps to chase these millennials away. It certainly didn’t help the campaign, and it’s even more certain this show of favoritism won’t either.

Belville calls them “Marvel’s Democratic Superdelegates,” but then notes he’s “just kidding” because “Marvel’s heroes are better looking.”

Thanks to “some quick Excel work,” Belville notes that with the 355 “bigwigs pledging to vote for her,” she “already had 14.9 percent of the votes she needed to get the nomination before the first caucus was ever tallied in Iowa.”

Towards his closing, Belville notes that the situation pits the super delegates at going against “the people or… the Clinton dynasty.”

It’s likely millennials will be in for a rude awakening, and the thought that the system may really truly, in fact, be rigged. Such a revelation doesn’t help the Democratic establishment when the DNC has already been thought to unfairly favor Hillary with their debate schedules, and now there’s the super delegate system.

Hey, zippy, you never did say. Who's your choice for POTUS?

 

[Rad]

So what happens if they do screw Bernie over? It would be like the the Supreme court handing over the election to Bush. She would lack a clear mandate. Would the sheep dog get people to vote for her after that treatment?