Based on Current Situation=> Ted Cruz Will Be Knocked Out of Race By April 26th

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Based on Current Situation=> Ted Cruz Will Be Knocked Out of Race By April 26th
link from Drudge:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/04/april-cruzs-last-hurrah/

Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.

By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
...
This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA).

 

[Jan2017]

If Wisconsin splits . . . with Cruz winning state wide and several congressional districts . . . Trump still gets delegates from winning in other districts.

But even without a WI split, it still gets mathematically impossible for Cruz on April 19 if Trump wins all 95 in New York.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Overall based on the numbers, because it is highly unlikely East Coast Republicans will vote for a Canadian- born Texan for President over a New York billionaire, April will be Cruz’s last hurrah. But on the bright side Ted, you will always be welcomed back home in Canada.

Maybe Cruz can go back to Cruzadian with his supporters. It's a state where you really aren't America, and really aren't Canadian. :o

 

[Origanalist]

I don't care about Cruz, or Trump. Not one stinking little bit. At this point "what difference does it make"? None. But y'all carry on with the BS.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

If Wisconsin splits . . . with Cruz winning state wide and several congressional districts . . . Trump still gets delegates from winning in other districts.

But even without a WI split, it still gets mathematically impossible for Cruz on April 19 if Trump wins all 95 in New York.

Trump is likely to get even more votes in New York if they can push him over the top. Incentive in itself.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

I don't care about Cruz, or Trump. Not one stinking little bit. At this point "what difference does it make"? None. But y'all carry on with the BS.

Every election is bs. But it might get more entertaining after the GOP race is over. Sanders or Hillary have a bunch going for them and popcorn sales.

 

[erowe1]

Based on Current Situation=> Ted Cruz Will Be Knocked Out of Race By April 26th
link from Drudge:

Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.

How will that knock him out of the race though? If he quits that will just ensure that Trump gets enough delegates. If he keeps Trump from getting enough, then at least he'll have a chance at the convention, even if it's only a slight one, and probably a better chance than Trump would have.

 

[Badger Paul]

Cruz may not be able to win himself but that's not the point. The point is stopping Trump from winning 1,237.

 

[Jan2017]

I don't care about Cruz, or Trump. Not one stinking little bit. At this point "what difference does it make"? None. But y'all carry on with the BS.

BS provided by Reince Priebus . . . it is pretty deep muck to get through.

Cruz may not be able to win himself but that's not the point. The point is stopping Trump from winning 1,237.

That is gonna be close . . . Rubio has 166 delegates as leverage ?

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

How will that knock him out of the race though? If he quits that will just ensure that Trump gets enough delegates. If he keeps Trump from getting enough, then at least he'll have a chance at the convention, even if it's only a slight one, and probably a better chance than Trump would have.

Only some of Cruz supporters feel that way (which isn't really Cruz support). By the time you get knocked out mathematically, your support goes way down - even if you don't concede the race. And likewise - after that, an anti-Trump vote doesn't get more for voting for Cruz as opposed to Kasich. (actually, they get a little more with a Kasich vote).

 

[erowe1]

Only some of Cruz supporters feel that way (which isn't really Cruz support). By the time you get knocked out mathematically, your support goes way down - even if you don't concede the race. And likewise - after that, an anti-Trump vote doesn't get more for voting for Cruz as opposed to Kasich. (actually, they get a little more with a Kasich vote).

But still, the key is keeping Trump from getting to 1237. It's a given that nobody else will get it.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

But still, the key is keeping Trump from getting to 1237. It's a given that nobody else will get it.

If most of Cruz support is the anti-Trump support as you think, he will lose most of that support at that time - because they are only against Trump, not for Cruz. You get more power by dividing up votes at the convention among delegates and not making any of them too powerful - so you can get in the gope candidate that you actually want.

Beyond which - this happens every election.

 

[RandallFan]

Trump could win every state except Indiana(which is an open primary, so social-cons cant control it as much).

The west coast primaries are closed and helps with the anti-amnesty rhetoric Trump has. Few hippies or hispanic democrats voting in west coast primaries.

Trump won Nevada and Arizona easily.

Every candidate in the last 4 years has run an immigration attack ad in the Nebraska primary, which is another one of Trump's non-top-tier states.


[TABLE="class: wikitable sortable jquery-tablesorter"]
[TR]
[TD]Apr 5[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]Primary (open)
[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]Apr 17[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[TD]May 14[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Apr 19[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]New York[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]Primary (closed)[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-most[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-most[/TD]
[TD]Apr 19[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[TD]May 26[/TD]
[TD]Committee[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Apr 26[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Connecticut[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]Primary (closed)[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-most[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]May 20[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[TD]May 20[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Delaware[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Primary (closed)[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]Apr 29[/TD]
[TD]Convention[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Maryland[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]Primary (closed)[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]Apr 26[/TD]
[TD]Direct Elec.[/TD]
[TD]May 14[/TD]
[TD]Convention[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Primary (closed)[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD](No allocation)[/TD]
[TD]Apr 26[/TD]
[TD]Direct Elec.[/TD]
[TD]May 21[/TD]
[TD]Committee[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"]Rhode Island[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Primary (semi-closed)[/TD]
[TD]Proportional[/TD]
[TD]Proportional[/TD]
[TD]Apr 26[/TD]
[TD]Direct Elec.[/TD]
[TD]Apr 26[/TD]
[TD]Direct Elec.[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]May 3[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Indiana[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]57
[/TD]
[TD]Primary (open)
[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]Winner-take-all[/TD]
[TD]May 3[/TD]
[TD]Slate[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Trump will dominate the east coast voters. He'll win enough Conservatives(Schiff, Paladino NY , Lonegan NJ, & RINOS(McMahon, Christie, Chaffee) voters.

In Maryland Trump has everyone not looting as a non-enemy which is 99% of people.

There's probably some Michael Steele voters, who think Trump can appeal to black voters a few points.

 

[Krugminator2]

Cruz getting 1237 is completely irrelevant. He won't be dropping out.

Unless Trump is over or just under 1237, he is not getting the nomination. The party isn't nominating someone 78 points underwater with Hispanics while Kasich is +3 with them.

Trump is an underdog to get the nomination right now. Predictit has him down to 44% today. Betfair has him at 47%. It is more likely that Kasich, Cruz, or Ryan gets the nomination at this point than Trump.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

...

 

[CPUd]

Trump is favored in the April contests after WI, but he won't get shit out of the western states in May. By the end of May, Trump will also be mathematically eliminated from getting a majority going in.

 

[CPUd]

The betting sites have him lower than the runup to the Iowa caucuses

 

[goldwater's ghost]

If Wisconsin splits . . . with Cruz winning state wide and several congressional districts . . . Trump still gets delegates from winning in other districts.

But even without a WI split, it still gets mathematically impossible for Cruz on April 19 if Trump wins all 95 in New York.

ny is proportional

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Cruz wins Wisconsin and get 30 delegates and Trump gets 12. Cruz goes up 18 delegates and it doesn't matter at all.

Trump wins New York by 25 points, and Cruz will be mathematically eliminated by April 19th.

This article has a very conservative date.

 

[mrsat_98]