Banks now have a NEGATIVE reserve ratio

jonahtrainer

Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2007
Messages
1,986
Check out this information I came across combing through the Federal Reserve reports looking for cues on why the meltdown.

Reserves of depository institutions Vault cash(5)
-------------------------------------- --------------------------------------
Reserve used to Net carryover
Date total(2) nonborrowed required Monetary balances total satisfy surplus(7) of reserve
base(3) with F.R. required balances(8)
Banks(4) reserves(6)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
July 42731 42469 41067 828452 8420 50206 34311 15896
Aug. 44621 43646 39799 829739 10983 51040 33637 17402
Sep. 42079 40513 40338 826415 8606 49628 33473 16155

Oct. 41476 41222 40026 828353 8264 49747 33212 16535
Nov. 41863 41497 40187 833075 8526 48985 33337 15649
Dec. 42710 27280 40967 836384 8188 52153 34522 17631
2 weeks ending(10)
2007-Nov. 21 40531 40007 39044 833688 7810 49711 32721 16990 74

Dec. 5 44359 44160 42536 835284 9478 48359 34881 13478 38
19 38676 34843 37507 831790 6610 52080 32066 20014 357

2008-Jan. 2 46731 11424 44349 842202 9493 53819 37238 16581 39
16p 39989 -1387 38278 833394 7949 51440 32040 19399 108

The Bank of International Settlements recommends 8% reserve ratios. The average European bank has 18% reserves.

Borrowed reserves are from the Federal Reserve. Here are the average non-borrowed reserves for US banks by date:

Nov 21 - 4.8%=40007/833688
Dec 5 - 5.3%=44160/835284
Dec 19 - 4.2%=34843/831790
Jan 2 - 1.4%=11424/842202
Jan 16 - (.2%)=(1387)/833394

In addition, the required reserve ratios have been declining.

This is beyond insolvency. This is INSANE.
 
You really believe any of the banks hold real reserves? That would be foolish of them. They can't make money holding reserves and if they ever needed their fictional reserves they would be in a hopeless state anyway.

The people at the top will hop out of trouble with their golden parachutes while the towers of babel they have built collapse on you and me. No there has been no good reason to hold reserves for a long long time.
 
It looks like your stats are based only on vault cash. Fed policy also allows other "assets" to be considered reserves. In particular, loans from the Fed are also reserves (a loan, which is actually a liability, is considered an asset in this case).

A bank can't operate for long without at least some minimal reserves. Differences in day-to-day check clearing dates/order can cause a mini-run on a bank very easily.
 
It looks like your stats are based only on vault cash. Fed policy also allows other "assets" to be considered reserves. In particular, loans from the Fed are also reserves (a loan, which is actually a liability, is considered an asset in this case).

A bank can't operate for long without at least some minimal reserves. Differences in day-to-day check clearing dates/order can cause a mini-run on a bank very easily.

No, it is based on 'non-borrowed reserves' from the non-seasonally adjusted Table 2.

For every $1,000 on deposit at the banks they have -$1.40 as reserves. This is INSANE! The bank run is being prevented by the Federal Reserve printing money out of thin air to loan to the banks to covered their 'required' reserves (Term Auction column from Table 1).
 
It's because 'non-borrowed reserves' has a poor definition that's never really caused an issue before.

Non-borrowed reserves = What bank claims it has as reserves - *ANY* loans from the FED.

These loans aren't necessarily used as reserve, or that banks aren't stocking reserves. It's caused by a new FED instrument, the TAF loans. Banks eagerly took the loans because they cost less than they would pay you, the FED, or other banks normally for money, and loaned it out. It has nothing to do with reserves. That number next week will probably hit -20 due to the last TAF auction, then start going back up when the loan terms expire in a month.
 
It's because 'non-borrowed reserves' has a poor definition that's never really caused an issue before.

Non-borrowed reserves = What bank claims it has as reserves - *ANY* loans from the FED.

These loans aren't necessarily used as reserve, or that banks aren't stocking reserves. It's caused by a new FED instrument, the TAF loans. Banks eagerly took the loans because they cost less than they would pay you, the FED, or other banks normally for money, and loaned it out. It has nothing to do with reserves. That number next week will probably hit -20 due to the last TAF auction, then start going back up when the loan terms expire in a month.

After deeper research this is the first time ever in the history of the Federal Reserve that the non-borrowed reserves number has ever gone negative. The Fed has always been in control over the individual banks and held moral suasion over them which prevented them from borrowing to meet their required reserve ratio.

Exactly! Bernake has said the loans will go on as long as necessary and he has been increasing the size of them.

What makes you think the banks would ever want to repay these loans? As you point out, they are sure a cheaper source of capital than anywhere else. The banks have now shifted the cost of their reserves onto the Fed who is then printing the reserves out of thin air. Because the Federal Reserve system functions like one big bank and because the Fed has lost all control, they no longer have any moral suasion power, therefore hyperinflation is the only option to a bank run. We've now officially entered the Weimar Germany phase.
 
I don't really see what's new. If for every dollar you put in the bank, they can loan out ten, wasn't this always the case? Especially if those ten default.

I think it might be a matter of how you cook the books?

I'm a little confused by this. It always was a Ponzi scheme, wasn't it?
 
After deeper research this is the first time ever in the history of the Federal Reserve that the non-borrowed reserves number has ever gone negative.

Let's be honest here, you didn't do any 'deeper research'. You clicked the link that said "Historical data" on the top. I know, because he you had actually taken the time to go back to 1913 data, you wouldn't have made that statement. Anyway, you didn't even research the matter at hand. Here's why, you keep saying:

borrowing to meet their required reserve ratio.

It's almost like you completely avoided the part of my explanation where I state there's no reason to assume these loans are to cover reserves. They're simply loans by the FED to banks. You're just finally seeing something in data that wasn't previously there. Banks borrow money all the time, mostly from each other, routinely from customers. They stay away from the FED and the discount window simply because the rate is higher. Well, now it isn't. Had "non-borrowed reserves" been adjusted against ALL LOANS and not simply those from the FED, that number would routinely flucuate.

Exactly! Bernake has said the loans will go on as long as necessary and he has been increasing the size of them.

??? He laid out 3 of them with an option for a 4th one. They have predefined amounts and loan periods. Looking at the last one, I don't think there's going to be a 4th. The auction % is widely diverging from LIBOR, and the BC ratio has gone up substantially. Banks don't even want the money at this point.

What makes you think the banks would ever want to repay these loans?

I don't know, they have a long history of doing so, decades. See how repos work. I'll admit if they don't pay them back that's a worrying sign, but so far, the banks have repaid the 2 TAF loans done in December. We'll see if they repay the Jan 14th one.
 
I don't really see what's new. If for every dollar you put in the bank, they can loan out ten, wasn't this always the case? Especially if those ten default.

If the reserve ratio is 10% then for every $100 of deposits a bank must keep $10 of reserves. These numbers indicate that for every $100 of deposits banks must keep -$.14 of reserves. In effect, there is no reserve ratio because the Federal Reserve is printing all the money required for the reserve ratio out of thin air.

Let's be honest here, you didn't do any 'deeper research'. You clicked the link that said "Historical data" on the top. I know, because he you had actually taken the time to go back to 1913 data, you wouldn't have made that statement. Anyway, you didn't even research the matter at hand.

I'll post the research file data. The Fed only had numbers from 1975-2008. Do you have a source to contradict my assertions?

It's almost like you completely avoided the part of my explanation where I state there's no reason to assume these loans are to cover reserves. They're simply loans by the FED to banks. You're just finally seeing something in data that wasn't previously there. Banks borrow money all the time, mostly from each other, routinely from customers. They stay away from the FED and the discount window simply because the rate is higher. Well, now it isn't. Had "non-borrowed reserves" been adjusted against ALL LOANS and not simply those from the FED, that number would routinely flucuate.

These numbers are for non-borrowed reserves. Total reserves is the sum of borrowed and non-borrowed reserves. The number of non-borrowed reserves does routinely fluctuate however never in its history has it done anything close to this. SOURCE: See the posted numbers.

??? He laid out 3 of them with an option for a 4th one. They have predefined amounts and loan periods. Looking at the last one, I don't think there's going to be a 4th. The auction % is widely diverging from LIBOR, and the BC ratio has gone up substantially. Banks don't even want the money at this point.

If banks don't want the money then why are they continuing to draw down on the TAF? The report appears to show the banks gobbling up the money as fast as it can be printed out of thin air. SOURCE for your assertion please.

I don't know, they have a long history of doing so, decades. See how repos work. I'll admit if they don't pay them back that's a worrying sign, but so far, the banks have repaid the 2 TAF loans done in December. We'll see if they repay the Jan 14th one.

The report does not appear to state whether the TAF loans have been repaid. SOURCE for your assertion please.

In addition, I just finished talking with a buddy of mine who has an MBA in finance and worked in the cash management division of the LA Federal Reserve. He agrees with my analysis and conclusion. I think I am right and you are wrong. Please provide a little bit better analysis of the situation than what you have. Here is a more complete analysis.

The pictures above are from bank runs in 1907 and 2007. A bank run results when depositors want all their deposits at the same time. Often fear causes the bank run as the last one to the bank doesn’t get their purchasing power. The ratio between reserves and deposits is the reserve ratio. For example, the average European bank has a reserve ratio of 18% so for every $100 of deposits the banks have $18 of reserves. Banks are required to keep reserves according to a specified ratio.

The Federal Reserve published on Jan. 17, 2008 the bi-weekly report Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base. I encourage you to review this report to see the actual numbers and trends.

A banks reserves is equal to the borrowed and non-borrowed reserves. Because the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of last resort the Federal Reserve system acts as one bank. The numbers for the system were:

Date non-borrowed Monetary Base Reserve Ratio
Nov 21 40,007 833,688 4.8%
Dec 5 44,160 835,284 5.3%
Dec 19 38,676 831,790 4.6%
Jan 2 11,424 842,202 1.4%
Jan 16 (1,387) 833,394 -0.17%

So, where are the required reserves coming from? The Federal Reserve is printing the money out of thin air as shows up in ‘Term auction credit’.

Dec 11,613
Jan 2 30,000
Jan 16 40,000

This combined increase in one month of 81,613 compared to the monetary base of 820,331 is about 9.9%, or 119% annually, of the total money supply. This is very serious inflation.
The Bottom Line

Instead of holding $18 of non-borrowed reserves the average bank in the US owes $1.70 to the Federal Reserve for every $1,000 to meet the required reserve ratio. To continue meeting their required reserve ratio the banks are borrowing about $12.5B per week that the Federal Reserve prints out of thin air increasing the money supply by 10% per month.
Note:

After deeper research this is the first time ever in the history of the Federal Reserve that the non-borrowed reserves number has ever gone negative. The Fed has always been in control over the individual banks and held moral suasion over them which prevented them from borrowing to meet their required reserve ratio.

Bernake has said the ‘loans’ will go on as long as necessary and he has been increasing the size of them.

What makes you think the banks would ever want to repay these loans? They are a cheaper source of capital than anywhere else. The banks have now shifted the cost of their reserves onto the Fed who is then printing the reserves out of thin air. Because the Federal Reserve system functions like one big bank (whose required reserve ratio is now being printed out of thin air every week to prevent a bank run) and because the Fed has lost all control, they no longer have any moral suasion power, therefore hyperinflation is the only option to a bank run.

We've now officially entered the Weimar Germany phase.
 
If the reserve ratio is 10% then for every $100 of deposits a bank must keep $10 of reserves. These numbers indicate that for every $100 of deposits banks must keep -$.14 of reserves. In effect, there is no reserve ratio because the Federal Reserve is printing all the money required for the reserve ratio out of thin air.

Yes, but practically speaking, does it really make a difference?

I'm not trying to contradict you, I'm just trying to understand.

Does it really matter if you are broke or dead broke?

All you are now saying is that even if they successfully called all the debt in, they could never pay us back.

But, of course, they could never call all the debt in to begin with.

Well, isn't that what happens in this kind of free-wheeling, worsening situation, allowed and designed by the Fed?

It's been going on for 100 years.

It's a trip straight down a bottomless black hole.
 
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Download Page H3 Statistical Release for Jan 17, 2008
Series Description Nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions, SA, BA
Unit: Currency
Multiplier: 1,000,000
Currency: USD
Unique Identifier: H3/H3/RESNB14A_BA.WW
Time Period RESNB14A_BA.WW
1975-01-08 16938
1975-01-15 16535
1975-01-22 16728
1975-01-29 17090
1975-02-05 17385
1975-02-12 17028
1975-02-19 17024
1975-02-26 17027
1975-03-05 17490
1975-03-12 17339
1975-03-19 17053
1975-03-26 17347
1975-04-02 17538
1975-04-09 17418
1975-04-16 17578
1975-04-23 17260
1975-04-30 17250
1975-05-07 17438
1975-05-14 17098
1975-05-21 17224
1975-05-28 17244
1975-06-04 17627
1975-06-11 17261
1975-06-18 17897
1975-06-25 17459
1975-07-02 17160
1975-07-09 17367
1975-07-16 17290
1975-07-23 17194
1975-07-30 17506
1975-08-06 17453
1975-08-13 17257
1975-08-20 17504
1975-08-27 17476
1975-09-03 17632
1975-09-10 17276
1975-09-17 17596
1975-09-24 17295
1975-10-01 17511
1975-10-08 17117
1975-10-15 17471
1975-10-22 17147
1975-10-29 17584
1975-11-05 18282
1975-11-12 17330
1975-11-19 17753
1975-11-26 17848
1975-12-03 17935
1975-12-10 17709
1975-12-17 17844
1975-12-24 17433
1975-12-31 17678
1978-01-04 18828
1978-01-11 18578
1978-01-18 19173
1978-01-25 18687
1978-02-01 18768
1978-02-08 19217
1978-02-15 19380
1978-02-22 19098
1978-03-01 18952
1978-03-08 18817
1978-03-15 18976
1978-03-22 18974
1978-03-29 18983
1978-04-05 19249
1978-04-12 19039
1978-04-19 19451
1978-04-26 18319
1978-05-03 17907
1978-05-10 17849
1978-05-17 18781
1978-05-24 18856
1978-05-31 18516
1978-06-07 18896
1978-06-14 19176
1978-06-21 18756
1978-06-28 18044
1978-07-05 19567
1978-07-12 18588
1978-07-19 19104
1978-07-26 18318
1978-08-02 18585
1978-08-09 18824
1978-08-16 19152
1978-08-23 18073
1978-08-30 19064
1978-09-06 18969
1978-09-13 19360
1978-09-20 18902
1978-09-27 18512
1978-10-04 18928
1978-10-11 19115
1978-10-18 18708
1978-10-25 18766
1978-11-01 18659
1978-11-08 19333
1978-11-15 19186
1978-11-22 19146
1978-11-29 19074
1978-12-06 19245
1978-12-13 19007
1978-12-20 19200
1978-12-27 17914
1979-01-03 19279
1979-01-10 18508
1979-01-17 19391
1979-01-24 18679
1979-01-31 18497
1979-02-07 18869
1979-02-14 18293
1979-02-21 18620
1979-02-28 17911
1979-03-07 18667
1979-03-14 18440
1979-03-21 18434
1979-03-28 18076
1979-04-04 18764
1979-04-11 18607
1979-04-18 18729
1979-04-25 18327
1979-05-02 18582
1979-05-09 17974
1979-05-16 17945
1979-05-23 17614
1979-05-30 17301
1979-06-06 18442
1979-06-13 18198
1979-06-20 18608
1979-06-27 18152
1979-07-04 18782
1979-07-11 18521
1979-07-18 19005
1979-07-25 18634
1979-08-01 19205
1979-08-08 19122
1979-08-15 19072
1979-08-22 18367
1979-08-29 19105
1979-09-05 18870
1979-09-12 18557
1979-09-19 18265
1979-09-26 18766
1979-10-03 19132
1979-10-10 19378
1979-10-17 18836
1979-10-24 17032
1979-10-31 17833
1979-11-07 18656
1979-11-14 18502
1979-11-21 18581
1979-11-28 18140
1979-12-05 18805
1979-12-12 19323
1979-12-19 19184
1979-12-26 19426
1980-01-02 19424
1980-01-09 20038
1980-01-16 19748
1980-01-23 19183
1980-01-30 18764
1980-02-06 20023
1980-02-13 18908
1980-02-20 19036
1980-02-27 18455
1980-03-05 18426
1980-03-12 17080
1980-03-19 17824
1980-03-26 17770
1980-04-02 18682
1980-04-09 18176
1980-04-16 18350
1980-04-23 18184
1980-04-30 17840
1980-05-07 19241
1980-05-14 19092
1980-05-21 19821
1980-05-28 19109
1980-06-04 20405
1980-06-11 19826
1980-06-18 20242
1980-06-25 20198
1980-07-02 20481
1980-07-09 20622
1980-07-16 20546
1980-07-23 20086
1980-07-30 20334
1980-08-06 20360
1980-08-13 20169
1980-08-20 20886
1980-08-27 20148
1980-09-03 20086
1980-09-10 20447
1980-09-17 19981
1980-09-24 19575
1980-10-01 19558
1980-10-08 19946
1980-10-15 19870
1980-10-22 19944
1980-10-29 19587
1980-11-05 19974
1980-11-12 19709
1980-11-19 20445
1980-11-26 19980
1980-12-03 20481
1980-12-10 19936
1980-12-17 20617
1980-12-24 20408
1980-12-31 20274
1981-01-07 20434
1981-01-14 20146
1981-01-21 20390
1981-01-28 19949
1981-02-04 20728
1981-02-11 20705
1981-02-18 20818
1981-02-25 19753
1981-03-04 21055
1981-03-11 21030
1981-03-18 21230
1981-03-25 21012
1981-04-01 21018
1981-04-08 21019
1981-04-15 21168
1981-04-22 21233
1981-04-29 20035
1981-05-06 20268
1981-05-13 20604
1981-05-20 20415
1981-05-27 19491
1981-06-03 20399
1981-06-10 19987
1981-06-17 20402
1981-06-24 20014
1981-07-01 20774
1981-07-08 20538
1981-07-15 20886
1981-07-22 20682
1981-07-29 20343
1981-08-05 21118
1981-08-12 20847
1981-08-19 21026
1981-08-26 20802
1981-09-02 20944
1981-09-09 20864
1981-09-16 21146
1981-09-23 20795
1981-09-30 21345
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1981-10-14 21186
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1981-10-28 20949
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1981-11-18 21656
1981-11-25 21906
1981-12-02 22202
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1981-12-16 22168
1981-12-23 21846
1981-12-30 21588
1982-01-06 21267
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1982-01-20 22067
1982-01-27 20063
1982-02-03 21107
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1982-02-24 20204
1982-03-03 21081
1982-03-10 20886
1982-03-17 21062
1982-03-24 20713
1982-03-31 20851
1982-04-07 20665
1982-04-14 20815
1982-04-21 20821
1982-04-28 20656
1982-05-05 21186
1982-05-12 21113
1982-05-19 21529
1982-05-26 21041
1982-06-02 21623
1982-06-09 20814
1982-06-16 21469
1982-06-23 21280
1982-06-30 20961
1982-07-07 21329
1982-07-14 21308
1982-07-21 21623
1982-07-28 21665
1982-08-04 21576
1982-08-11 21862
1982-08-18 21988
1982-08-25 21688
1982-09-01 21956
1982-09-08 21813
1982-09-15 21312
1982-09-22 21836
1982-09-29 21949
1982-10-06 22231
1982-10-13 22166
1982-10-20 22470
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1982-11-03 22841
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1982-12-01 23026
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1982-12-29 23228
1983-01-05 22724
1983-01-12 22462
1983-01-19 22755
1983-01-26 22576
1983-02-02 23085
1983-02-09 23169
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1983-03-02 23578
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1983-03-16 23408
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1983-05-04 24197
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1984-03-07 25089
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1984-09-05 18257
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1984-09-19 18926
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1984-10-03 20345
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1984-10-17 19882
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1984-10-31 20815
1984-11-07 20815
1984-11-14 22050
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1984-12-12 23303
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1984-12-26 24726
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1985-01-23 26182
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1985-02-06 26227
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1985-02-20 26428
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1985-03-06 25649
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1985-03-20 26353
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1985-04-03 25888
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1985-04-17 26863
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1985-05-01 26912
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1985-06-26 28188
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1985-07-10 27577
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1985-07-24 28459
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1985-08-07 28414
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1985-08-21 28769
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1985-09-18 28791
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1985-10-02 29196
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2003-12-24 42612
2003-12-31 41627
2004-01-07 41627
2004-01-14 44252
2004-01-21 44252
2004-01-28 42328
2004-02-04 42328
2004-02-11 43585
2004-02-18 43585
2004-02-25 42714
2004-03-03 42714
2004-03-10 45959
2004-03-17 45959
2004-03-24 44520
2004-03-31 44520
2004-04-07 45883
2004-04-14 45883
2004-04-21 45824
2004-04-28 45824
2004-05-05 45027
2004-05-12 45027
2004-05-19 45149
2004-05-26 45149
2004-06-02 46040
2004-06-09 46040
2004-06-16 45727
2004-06-23 45727
2004-06-30 44805
2004-07-07 44805
2004-07-14 46618
2004-07-21 46618
2004-07-28 45099
2004-08-04 45099
2004-08-11 44961
2004-08-18 44961
2004-08-25 45359
2004-09-01 45359
2004-09-08 46709
2004-09-15 46709
2004-09-22 45481
2004-09-29 45481
2004-10-06 45470
2004-10-13 45470
2004-10-20 46757
2004-10-27 46757
2004-11-03 46460
2004-11-10 46460
2004-11-17 45951
2004-11-24 45951
2004-12-01 45284
2004-12-08 45284
2004-12-15 47052
2004-12-22 47052
2004-12-29 46852
2005-01-05 46852
2005-01-12 47594
2005-01-19 47594
2005-01-26 47895
2005-02-02 47895
2005-02-09 45451
2005-02-16 45451
2005-02-23 46463
2005-03-02 46463
2005-03-09 46581
2005-03-16 46581
2005-03-23 47554
2005-03-30 47554
2005-04-06 45862
2005-04-13 45862
2005-04-20 46969
2005-04-27 46969
2005-05-04 45097
2005-05-11 45097
2005-05-18 45026
2005-05-25 45026
2005-06-01 45851
2005-06-08 45851
2005-06-15 45492
2005-06-22 45492
2005-06-29 45927
2005-07-06 45927
2005-07-13 45259
2005-07-20 45259
2005-07-27 46238
2005-08-03 46238
2005-08-10 44406
2005-08-17 44406
2005-08-24 44806
2005-08-31 44806
2005-09-07 45536
2005-09-14 45536
2005-09-21 46495
2005-09-28 46495
2005-10-05 44877
2005-10-12 44877
2005-10-19 45369
2005-10-26 45369
2005-11-02 45854
2005-11-09 45854
2005-11-16 44947
2005-11-23 44947
2005-11-30 44599
2005-12-07 44599
2005-12-14 44825
2005-12-21 44825
2005-12-28 45450
2006-01-04 45450
2006-01-11 43785
2006-01-18 43785
2006-01-25 44695
2006-02-01 44695
2006-02-08 43801
2006-02-15 43801
2006-02-22 44632
2006-03-01 44632
2006-03-08 43441
2006-03-15 43441
2006-03-22 44338
2006-03-29 44338
2006-04-05 43641
2006-04-12 43641
2006-04-19 44979
2006-04-26 44979
2006-05-03 45931
2006-05-10 45931
2006-05-17 43628
2006-05-24 43628
2006-05-31 44385
2006-06-07 44385
2006-06-14 44988
2006-06-21 44988
2006-06-28 45464
2006-07-05 45464
2006-07-12 42653
2006-07-19 42653
2006-07-26 44559
2006-08-02 44559
2006-08-09 41993
2006-08-16 41993
2006-08-23 42873
2006-08-30 42873
2006-09-06 42303
2006-09-13 42303
2006-09-20 42919
2006-09-27 42919
2006-10-04 43909
2006-10-11 43909
2006-10-18 41475
2006-10-25 41475
2006-11-01 43266
2006-11-08 43266
2006-11-15 42469
2006-11-22 42469
2006-11-29 43739
2006-12-06 43739
2006-12-13 42059
2006-12-20 42059
2006-12-27 44139
2007-01-03 44139
2007-01-10 41434
2007-01-17 41434
2007-01-24 42020
2007-01-31 42020
2007-02-07 41973
2007-02-14 41973
2007-02-21 42812
2007-02-28 42812
2007-03-07 42864
2007-03-14 42864
2007-03-21 41580
2007-03-28 41580
2007-04-04 42677
2007-04-11 42677
2007-04-18 41973
2007-04-25 41973
2007-05-02 44377
2007-05-09 44377
2007-05-16 41801
2007-05-23 41801
2007-05-30 43743
2007-06-06 43743
2007-06-13 42360
2007-06-20 42360
2007-06-27 44694
2007-07-04 44694
2007-07-11 40703
2007-07-18 40703
2007-07-25 41741
2007-08-01 41741
2007-08-08 49161
2007-08-15 49161
2007-08-22 39547
2007-08-29 39547
2007-09-05 39338
2007-09-12 39338
2007-09-19 40886
2007-09-26 40886
2007-10-03 46170
2007-10-10 46170
2007-10-17 39433
2007-10-24 39433
2007-10-31 42236
2007-11-07 42236
2007-11-14 41306
2007-11-21 41306
2007-11-28 43789
2007-12-05 43789
2007-12-12 36996
2007-12-19 36996
2007-12-26 8731
2008-01-02 8731
2008-01-09 139
2008-01-16 139

I have excised year 1976 & 1977 because of lack of character space for posts. The data is available from the link.
 
Yes, but practically speaking, does it really make a difference?

I'm not trying to contradict you, I'm just trying to understand.

Does it really matter if you are broke or dead broke?

All you are now saying is that even if they successfully called all the debt in, they could never pay us back.

But, of course, they could never call all the debt in to begin with.

Well, isn't that what happens in this kind of free-wheeling, worsening situation, allowed and designed by the Fed?

It's been going on for 100 years.

It's a trip straight down a bottomless well.

That is a really good question: What difference does it make? The difference it makes is this: Banks no longer need to worry about a bank-run because the Federal Reserve has officially sanctioned printing any money needed out of thin air. In addition, the entire US banking system now has negative real reserves. While many people have been warning of this the numbers now confirm that the Federal Reserve is actually doing it.

Based on the Fed's number they are inflating the base money supply at 10% per month. Greenspan recently spoke about the Accelerator effect as illustrated in this chart. Perhaps our current rate corresponds to around June 1922?

lar_forecasting_3.gif
 
If the reserve ratio is 10% then for every $100 of deposits a bank must keep $10 of reserves. These numbers indicate that for every $100 of deposits banks must keep -$.14 of reserves. In effect, there is no reserve ratio because the Federal Reserve is printing all the money required for the reserve ratio out of thin air.

No, what reasoning do you have to show this is for covering reserves? For like the 4th time, and read carefully, they're just general loans, that are now coming from the FED, instead of other banks. non-borrowed reserves should either also take into account loans from non-FED entities, or only included loans specifically marked to act as reserves. As of right now, it does neither, thus has a bad definition.

I'll post the research file data. The Fed only had numbers from 1975-2008. Do you have a source to contradict my assertions?

In other words, what I said was dead on. All you did was click on 'historical data', so much for that 'deeper research' eh? As for my sources, nothing that's free that I can link to, but ask your finance buddy, I'm sure he'll give you some finance database credentials.

Total reserves is the sum of borrowed and non-borrowed reserves.

WRONG, you really don't read my posts do you?

Non-borrowed reserves = What bank claims it has as reserves - *ANY* loans from the FED.

Total Reserves = Whatever a bank wants to claim

You keep harping back to confusing 'non-borrowed reserves' as being loans specifically being earmarked as for reserves. They are not. For the 5th time now, you're simply misunderstanding terms.

If banks don't want the money then why are they continuing to draw down on the TAF? The report appears to show the banks gobbling up the money as fast as it can be printed out of thin air. SOURCE for your assertion please.

My source is the FED reports on the TAF loans. Who the hell knows what you're reading...

The report does not appear to state whether the TAF loans have been repaid. SOURCE for your assertion please.

Again, FED reports on the TAF loans. H.3 has nothing to do with TAF, why would it list in detail anything concerning it?

In addition, I just finished talking with a buddy of mine who has an MBA in finance and worked in the cash management division of the LA Federal Reserve.

You mean San Francisco kiddo? You can tell 'your buddy' I think he's a moron.

Here's my analysis you can pass along to 'your buddy'.

The system was experiencing a credit crunch due to lack of liquidity inside itself. LIBOR was high and banks sure as hell weren't going to come to the discount window willingly when they aren't in any sort of trouble. FED decides the only way to inject credit and thus liquidity into the system is by undercutting the rates of everyone out there, and thus 3 or 4 28-day TAFs are planned. Banks bid on the loans, money and liquidity spreads, etc..

And here's the important point. Even though these are a new instrument, they are still considered, obviously, loans by the FED. Thus, and read this carefully, in Nov banks had 40 billion in reserves, in Dec THEY STILL had 40 billion in reserves, and right now, they still have 40 billions in reserves. Nothing happened in those periods at all to draw down reserves. The issue is simply from a poorly defined column heading. The banks took the FED money, and turned around and loaned it back out to other entities. Your reserves are untouched.

So, run that by 'your buddy' and ask 'him' what's wrong with that explanation.
 
As for my sources, nothing that's free that I can link to, but ask your finance buddy, I'm sure he'll give you some finance database credentials.

A common practice of bankers and central bankers, especially when things get bad, is to engage in disinformation and intentional deception.

Please provide the links and stop trying to hide behind the curtain Mr. Wizard.

Non-borrowed reserves = What bank claims it has as reserves - *ANY* loans from the FED.

You keep harping back to confusing 'non-borrowed reserves' as being loans specifically being earmarked as for reserves. They are not. For the 5th time now, you're simply misunderstanding terms.

That is what I am targetting; the bank's 'real' reserve ratio.

My source is the FED reports on the TAF loans. Who the hell knows what you're reading...

Please provide the link? This Federal Reserve Report shows TAF increasing.

You mean San Francisco kiddo?

For clarification the LA office of the SF Federal Reserve. The difference is immaterial.

The system was experiencing a credit crunch due to lack of liquidity inside itself.

Precisely, because the Federal Reserve functions as one large bank the 'lack of liquidity' is, in effect, a run on the entire US banking system.

FED decides the only way to inject credit and thus liquidity into the system is by undercutting the rates of everyone out there, and thus 3 or 4 28-day TAFs are planned.

Yes, they print the money out of thin air to prevent the bank run. This was my buddy's conclusion as it was the 'lesser of two evils'; all US banks having a bank run at once versus hyperinflation.

And here's the important point. Even though these are a new instrument, they are still considered, obviously, loans by the FED. Thus, and read this carefully, in Nov banks had 40 billion in reserves, in Dec THEY STILL had 40 billion in reserves, and right now, they still have 40 billions in reserves. Nothing happened in those periods at all to draw down reserves. The issue is simply from a poorly defined column heading. The banks took the FED money, and turned around and loaned it back out to other entities. Your reserves are untouched.

Yes, the 'reserves' are still there. The issue is not with a 'poorly defined column heading.' The problem is that the 'reserves' are not typical reserves but instead reserves that have been provided by printing the money out of thin air which will result in hyperinflation. There are no 'reserves' in terms of purchasing power!

In Weimar Germany language the Federal Reserve is providing reserves by running the printing presses to prevent a bank run. I've heard GATA's ad is going to drop in the WSJ in the next two weeks.

A possible protection? Take physical possession of gold in allocated storage and use it as collateral for a Line of Credit to meet any US currency needs.

As gold is money and poses a mortal threat to irredeemable bits of paper, watch the gold price.

au0182nyb.gif
 
According to Wikipedia there are two types of money.

Purpose

Fractional reserve banking provides a system that expands and contracts the money supply. In order to have an understanding of how the money supply is expanded and contracted, one needs to understand that there are two types of money in a fractional-reserve banking system[2] :

* central bank money (physical currency)
* commercial bank money (money created through loans)

When a loan is supplied with central bank money, new commercial bank money is created[citation needed]. As a loan is paid back, the commercial bank money disappears from existence. To regulate this process governments have created central banks that control how many new loans can be created[citation needed].
 
To regulate this process governments have created central banks that control how many new loans can be created.

As we've been discussing this is what is at issue.

It appears there is no limit to how many new loans can be created and any 'bank-run' is being met with the Fed creating the money out of thin air to provide liquidity at the rate of 10% per month of the total money supply.
 
Oh my god, you're such a fucking moron it's hilarious...

You know what, it appears you're just not going to get it no matter what I say, you're stuck in your own special la-la land. Crack open an econ textbook moron, come back to me when you've read a few cover to cover. I mean seriously, it's like you don't even understand how a repo works, though this isn't exactly one, more like an inverse reverse repo.

Or just wait a few weeks. The Jan TAFs will unwind in late Feb, then your column goes back to being near the reserves. But hey, then it's time to just claim some conspiracies, that they're making up numbers, am I right?

Please provide the links and stop trying to hide behind the curtain Mr. Wizard.

I said it's not a free and public database, and no, I'm not giving you my login credentials to it. What happened to your finance buddy?
 
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And as a counter to your cherry picked gold chart, here's mine

goldxv6.png


GOLD IS A HORRIBLE INVESTMENT VEHICLE

Losing 81.5% over the final 2 decades of the century
 
I said it's not a free and public database, and no, I'm not giving you my login credentials to it. What happened to your finance buddy?

Ad hominem attacks are intellectually bankrupt and usually used in lieu of argument of the ideas and refusal to concede defeat.

I didn't ask for your login credentials. I asked for the link, source or cite. If I don't already have access I am sure I can very quickly find someone in my address book who does.

Stop hiding the ball. What is the link, source or cite of this mysterious, shrouded and secret information? Or is it just a fabricated figment of your imagination? We can presume it is a figment of your imagination if you refuse to provide a link, source or cite.


GOLD IS A HORRIBLE INVESTMENT VEHICLE

Losing 81.5% over the final 2 decades of the century

I agree that gold is not a very good investment vehicle as its return is about 0% (-.24% annually). But unencumbered physical bullion in allocated storage is the risk-free rate.
 
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