At RCP Trump leads Harris in national polling average: first time since 4 Aug

helenpaul said:
Who will turnout the most voters?
Click to expand...

With or without necromancy?

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Anti Federalist said:
By an RCH...0.1

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Click to expand...

I urge you all to look at that purported 2/10ths of one percent lead and consider how meaningless a stat adjustment it is derived from.
Then, click on each of the battleground states right there on the page and see how every one is within the margin of error and the "leads"
are razor thin. I would say it's just noise, but noise has the advantage of being real.

Kamala Harris is not a charismatic candidate and there are problems with her for sure, but there were also problems with both Hillary Clinton
and Joe Biden, and look at how close those elections were. The same is going to happen here. When the Democrats made the move to Harris,
they knew what they were doing. She will eek it out and lots of heads are going to explode but I am convinced this is the arrangement between
the Deep State and the Democratic Party which is running the elections in most of the critical states.
 
Snowball said:
I urge you all to look at that purported 2/10ths of one percent lead and consider how meaningless a stat adjustment it is derived from.
Then, click on each of the battleground states right there on the page and see how every one is within the margin of error and the "leads"
are razor thin. I would say it's just noise, but noise has the advantage of being real.

Kamala Harris is not a charismatic candidate and there are problems with her for sure, but there were also problems with both Hillary Clinton
and Joe Biden, and look at how close those elections were. The same is going to happen here. When the Democrats made the move to Harris,
they knew what they were doing. She will eek it out and lots of heads are going to explode but I am convinced this is the arrangement between
the Deep State and the Democratic Party which is running the elections in most of the critical states.
Click to expand...

Those tiny margins matter, because Trump has always over performed his polling by several points. Probably because he is so repulsive personally that people won't admit to pollsters they are voting for him. So my point is that if the pollsters are reporting a small percentage of a point lead for Trump, it's probably a several point lead.
 
Snowball said:
I urge you all to look at that purported 2/10ths of one percent lead and consider how meaningless a stat adjustment it is derived from.
Then, click on each of the battleground states right there on the page and see how every one is within the margin of error and the "leads"
are razor thin. I would say it's just noise, but noise has the advantage of being real.

Kamala Harris is not a charismatic candidate and there are problems with her for sure, but there were also problems with both Hillary Clinton
and Joe Biden, and look at how close those elections were.
Click to expand...

That's the thing, those elections were not close, according to the polling data.

On this day in 2020 Biden was up 7.4 and Clinton, in 2016 was up 5.4

If (when) shenanigans occur, it's going to much more obvious this time.
 
Anti Federalist said:
That's the thing, those elections were not close, according to the polling data.

On this day in 2020 Biden was up 7.4 and Clinton, in 2016 was up 5.4

If (when) shenanigans occur, it's going to much more obvious this time.
Click to expand...

69360 said:
Those tiny margins matter, because Trump has always over performed his polling by several points. Probably because he is so repulsive personally that people won't admit to pollsters they are voting for him. So my point is that if the pollsters are reporting a small percentage of a point lead for Trump, it's probably a several point lead.
Click to expand...

Not really because what matters is the exact combination of swing states.

My expectations have Trump winning some of them, but I still favor Harris to eek it out.
Another significant possibility this time is a tie, at 269-269.

I do admit that the takeaway reason why I expect Harris to eek it out is corruption and interference.
I'm not only talking about non-citizens voting, either.

This is a very complicated election because there are so many possible combinations that are really on the table.

So, if just a couple of them are taken off the table, it can be rigged. The early key is going to be Pennsylvania.

If the results are being interfered with, Pennsylvania will go to Harris. But, Pennsylvania is so close that she could win anyway.

It will be the dog whistle. Trump's chances take a huge hit without PA. I expect him to win NC and GA no problem.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?568337-Putting-money-on-Harris
 
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Snowball said:
Not really because what matters is the exact combination of swing states.

My expectations have Trump winning some of them, but I still favor Harris to eek it out.
Another significant possibility this time is a tie, at 269-269.

I do admit that the takeaway reason why I expect Harris to eek it out is corruption and interference.
I'm not only talking about non-citizens voting, either.

This is a very complicated election because there are so many possible combinations that are really on the table.

So, if just a couple of them are taken off the table, it can be rigged. The early key is going to be Pennsylvania.

If the results are being interfered with, Pennsylvania will go to Harris. But, Pennsylvania is so close that she could win anyway.

It will be the dog whistle. Trump's chances take a huge hit without PA. I expect him to win NC and GA no problem.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?568337-Putting-money-on-Harris
Click to expand...

You do realize if Harris wins Free Speech is dead right?


The first priority on Harris agenda is doing what the British govt has done going after free speech or anyone commenting on social media.


It will happen.



She will push for a mass amnesty agenda.
 
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WarriorLiberty said:
You do realize if Harris wins Free Speech is dead right?


The first priority on Harris agenda is doing what the British govt has done going after free speech or anyone commenting on social media.


It will happen.



She will push for a mass amnesty agenda.
Click to expand...

Whatever, because I got no say in any of it.

Harris will win my state by a wide margin, my vote is worthless anyway. Staying home.
 
Snowball said:
Not really because what matters is the exact combination of swing states.

My expectations have Trump winning some of them, but I still favor Harris to eek it out.
Another significant possibility this time is a tie, at 269-269.

I do admit that the takeaway reason why I expect Harris to eek it out is corruption and interference.
I'm not only talking about non-citizens voting, either.

This is a very complicated election because there are so many possible combinations that are really on the table.

So, if just a couple of them are taken off the table, it can be rigged. The early key is going to be Pennsylvania.

If the results are being interfered with, Pennsylvania will go to Harris. But, Pennsylvania is so close that she could win anyway.

It will be the dog whistle. Trump's chances take a huge hit without PA. I expect him to win NC and GA no problem.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?568337-Putting-money-on-Harris
Click to expand...

Trump could lose PA and it still won't even be close in the electoral college. Currently he could lose 2 or 3 swing states and still win.
 
69360 said:
Trump could lose PA and it still won't even be close in the electoral college. Currently he could lose 2 or 3 swing states and still win.
Click to expand...

Post your scenario. PA is very important. If Harris wins PA I believe she will win it.
Not automatic but she would only need 2/3 of AZ, WI, MI. Giving Trump GA and NC.

If Harris loses PA, she falls short even with AZ, WI, MI, NH and would need GA or NC.
 
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Final Events for both campaigns

Harris
Monday - Ann Arbor MI
Tuesday - National Mall (national broadcast/closing argument)
Wednesday - Madison WI
Thursday - Phoenix, Reno, Las Vegas

Walz
Monday - 2 sites in WI, then MI with Harris
Tuesday - 2 sites in GA
Wednesday - 2 sites in NC
Thursday - 2 sites in PA, Detroit MI

-----------------------

Trump
Monday - Atlanta GA
Tuesday - Allentown PA
Wednesday - Green Bay WI
Thursday - Henderson NV
Friday - Milwaukee WI
Saturday - Salem VA

Vance
Monday - 2 sites in WI
Tuesday - Saginaw MI
Wednesday onward - same as Trump
 
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