ARG SC poll: Paul Surges to 19%! (Newt 33%, Mitt 32%, Santorum 9%)

[RonPaulFever]

Santorum's done after 4th in SC.

I'm not so sure. He's like a stubborn child.

 

[splint]

3 debates coming up. Please let there only be 2-3 candidates then.

Anyone know how to aquire tickets to the AZ debate. (not to de-rail thread.)

 

[dbill27]

I'm not so sure. He's like a stubborn child.

This. I'm not confident at all that he won't take this all the way to the end like huckabee did in 08, even after he's mathematically out of it. For some reason, Santorum supporters seem to have Ron as their second choice in high numbers. I guess it's because, especially now, they're the only 2 family values candidates.

 

[JJ2]

Santorum only gets 2% among men, same as Perry! Wow.

 

[rachmiel]

I'm starting to feel really comfortable with the way things are unfolding. A protracted Newt/Mitt contest in the main ring could give Ron more time to siphon off support without being dwarfed by going head-on against Romney prematurely.

 

[Razmear]

Look at the gender breakdown for Santorum, guy's don't like him at all. 2% of men and 14% of women support him.

 

[Edward]

Santorum's done after 4th in SC.

Santorum is polling slightly ahead of Gingrich in Florida, so I think it will depend on where those numbers go after he gets pummeled this weekend. The publicly released polls in the states after that are outdated enough to be useless.

link is pdf

 

[J_White]

this seems good, but aren't the ARG polls a bit off usually ?
anyway, I just want a close third for Dr. Paul in SC. if by a miracle he can come 2nd, it would be great.

 

[thehungarian]

I can dig a 3rd place finish.

 

[eleganz]

As much as I would love for Ron to crack 20% on Saturday, we know ARG is shit...

any demographics?

 

[Ekrub]

Not ppp or Rasmussen... I'll believe it when I see it I guess

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

What the heck is happening to Santorum? Seems very strange that he's falling so fast in a socially conservative state.

I think it was PPP who reported that social issues aren't that important to SC. Economy, NAFTA, and veterans were way up on the board.

 

[Sentinelrv]

Wow, what if Gingrich won, and because of the debate performances tonight, Romney slid down into 3rd and Ron got boosted up to 2nd place? Heads would explode, that's for sure!

 

[Justinfrom1776]

If Romney finishes 3rd, I'll take 2nd.. That changes everything. The narrative goes from Mitt is inevitable to "Wow, Mitt has only won one primary and it was in a state that he lived in." Even if Newt pulls off a win here, long term he and Santo aren't going anywhere.

 

[BigByrd47119]

Wow, what if Gingrich won, and because of the debate performances tonight, Romney slid down into 3rd and Ron got boosted up to 2nd place? Heads would explode, that's for sure!

Wow, thats asking for one hell of a slide. I don't think that's even reasonable to expect unless he would have said something completely out there like, "Goddamn America," or what ever Obama's pastor had said...Reverend Write I think his name was? Anyone?

 

[nobody's_hero]

how come Ron is placing third and by almost half below Mitt and Newt? Does SC just have a strong belief in the other two?

It's hard to imagine anyone having a strong belief in the other candidates. I mean, every time an attack comes out against Newt, for example, people shift their support to someone else. I think there's a large portion of the GOP that just hasn't taken the time to down their own research on Ron Paul; they're just going by what the media and pundits say about him.

 

[Liberty Shark]

As far as I'm concerned, Dr. Paul needs at a minimum to get 15% in South Carolina, and needs to get a solid third place ahead of Santorum. I am setting expectations at 15%-16% as the minimum acceptable outcome - anything lower than this range is a disappointment. Next we have what I consider to currently be the likely outcome, which would be the 17%-18% range. This would be good.
However, the 19%-21% range would be terrific, and would likely be a very solid third place finish. Anything above 21% would be incredible and amazing in my opinion, and would actually be more impressive than the showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. A showing of 21% would be nearly a 6X increase in South Carolina support compared to the 2008 results. A 6X increase (21%) would be an incredibly impressive outcome, although I'm not too sure how realistic this outcome is currently.

 

[Lethalmiko]

Why should anyone be happy with 19% or a third place finish? Totally pathetic, unless you have no interest in winning. I wish my fellow Paul supporters would put pressure on the campaign to up their game with the same vigor they celebrate these useless numbers. We have the answers on how to win but inaction may cost us dearly. It's simple:

a) Electability ad
b) Foreign policy clarity
c) Seniors reassurance
d) Strong well-rehearsed debate performances

 

[Dsylexic]

so why does PPP have so much credibility when they too predicted 18 for Paul in NH?

i am going to say a solid 19-20% for paul. my only hope is santorum remains <11 and the winner <28

 

[demolama]

We got a lot of work. over 70% are not voting for Paul in a four man race. When Santorum drops we can not have these numbers. We need to grow.