Trump's general election chances are hard to gauge since I think he would target the working and lower class unlike any GOP candidate ever has before, I think he'll start incorporating a lot more left-wing populism and make a play for organized labor because obviously there will be a lot of discontent with Hillary as the Democratic nominee. If Trump can win places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania then he'll be president. Hispanics already have turn out in mass for Barack Obama, he won 70%+ of their vote and the same with Muslims too so it is doubtful things will get too much worse. Will black voters who turned out in historic numbers in 2008 and 2012 be as excited about Hillary Clinton as they were Barack Obama? Remember Hillary tried essentially this same strategy of courting the working class white vote against the black candidate in 2008 and she almost won so I think we shouldn't underestimate Trump's chances. National polls at this time mean nothing really, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee always polled well as general election candidates but could you imagine them on stage dealing with a full frontal assault by the media? Hillary has trailed in quite a few state polls in swing states, she has trailed at times in national polls as well, you can't predict this election a year out. I am almost 100% sure there would be a third party challenge if Trump is the nominee, probably some spawn of satan ticket of Bloomberg/Graham or something.