Anyone tthink this is credible (next week economical big event)

Anyone want to take bets on whether the dollar will collapse by 2010? All that is at stake will be the credibility of your economic opinions. :D

Takers?
 
panic-button.jpg
 
I think I've figured out what will be the big fail on the 13th.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=O#symbol=O;range=6m

They have a conference call on the 12th after market close, and Realty Income Corp (O) 's primary business is leasing retail space. They have a 2 billion market cap and all their assets are in properties. Also the insider and institutional trades are showing a 16% sell off in the past 6 months.
The EC site has a little Oprah (aka "O") hint on it as well which is why I checked to see what O was.

I'm to broke to be in the market, heck I'm too broke to afford a pack of smokes right now, so I can't do anything with this info, so if one of you rich folks out there makes a million shorting O, remember to send a small donation my way :)

eb
 
hugolp said:
Define collapse. A 80% down against gold is a collapse or not?

Hugo
Click to expand...

No, because gold is not a currency anymore. Volatility in commodities is subject to supply and demand, so no i am not taking such a bet. Reason be, gold could magically be discovered and a huge supplies could rattle down the price of gold. Similarly, the demand for gold could go up due to the dollar's depreciation against other competing currencies.

Therefore, why not skip the BS and worry about relative currency value. I mean, is this not what we are debating, not the supply/demand of a commodity represented in dollars.

I cannot foresee a scenario where the value of the dollar depreciates against foreign currencies to the point where gold hits the $1700 range by 2010. If you believe the cost of gold to increase by 2010, that's one thing. But if you believe the dollar to collapse 80% against any currency, that's entirely a whole other ball game. 80% collapse against the Euro would signal many goods would cost more in dollars, not just gold.

Get my point? Are we betting gold prices or relative dollar value?
 
ihsv said:
This appears to have been moved to Tuesday

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ag2bBDsXHd0M&refer=us
Click to expand...

To make things more interesting, I received several balance transfer offers for my BoA and Citi credit cards that both expire on Tuesday. Citi even mailed me two sets of checks and sent me a "Hey! Transfer now!" email. Seems odd that with all the credit tightening that both would send out these offers with the same expiration date, which happens to be right when a crash of some sort is being predicted. I havent received offers like this since mid last year.
 
The full moon and lunar eclipse are on the 9th.
The moon will be full 15 hours from now according to my little firefox plugin.

eb
 
Goldenboy219 said:
No, because gold is not a currency anymore. Volatility in commodities is subject to supply and demand, so no i am not taking such a bet. Reason be, gold could magically be discovered and a huge supplies could rattle down the price of gold. Similarly, the demand for gold could go up due to the dollar's depreciation against other competing currencies.

Therefore, why not skip the BS and worry about relative currency value. I mean, is this not what we are debating, not the supply/demand of a commodity represented in dollars.

I cannot foresee a scenario where the value of the dollar depreciates against foreign currencies to the point where gold hits the $1700 range by 2010. If you believe the cost of gold to increase by 2010, that's one thing. But if you believe the dollar to collapse 80% against any currency, that's entirely a whole other ball game. 80% collapse against the Euro would signal many goods would cost more in dollars, not just gold.

Get my point? Are we betting gold prices or relative dollar value?
Click to expand...

I was talking of the price of the dollar relative to money, money being gold. Get my point? :rolleyes:

But theorical discussions apart, your argument has one problem, in fact two, and the worst thing is that you know them allredy.

First, you are saying that if the dollar holds against all the currencies its not collapsing, wich is not true, because all the central banks could be debasing their currencies together (like in fact they are doing) and the dollar would hold in a limited range against the rest of the currencies. Yet prices of comodities and consumer goods would rise. And the price of money (gold) would rise as well.

Second, gold has (almost) no industrial use, and its so valuable only because gold is money.

But I am not telling you anything new, you allredy know all this. Said that, I get your point that gold can get overpriced. But it wont get overpriced because its a comodity (that makes no sense), it could get overpriced because people would not trust FIAT currency, and are storing their wealth in money (gold).

Hugo
 
Last edited:
hugolp said:
I was talking of the price of the dollar relative to money, money being gold. Get my point? :rolleyes:

But theorical discussions apart, your argument has one problem, in fact two, and the worst thing is that you know them allredy.

Second, gold has (almost) no industrial use, and its so valuable only because gold is money.

But I am not telling you anything new, you allredy know all this. Said that, I get your point that gold can get overpriced. But it wont get overpriced because its a comodity (that makes no sense), it could get overpriced because people would not trust FIAT currency, and are storing their wealth in money (gold).

Hugo
Click to expand...

Gold is not money, as i cannot go into a car dealership and buy a brand new car with a lb of gold. I might have to overpay for a good with my gold. Gold is a store of value, not money.

First, you are saying that if the dollar holds against all the currencies its not collapsing, wich is not true, because all the central banks could be debasing their currencies together (like in fact they are doing) and the dollar would hold in a limited range against the rest of the currencies. Yet prices of comodities and consumer goods would rise. And the price of money (gold) would rise as well.
Click to expand...

So what is it you are trying to point out; that it is unnecessary to worry about the dollar price of gold when talking about currency debasement, when it is the price of all goods and services that is truly important? If what you are saying is true, then you will see a severe spike in the CPI, therefore rendering the dollar price of gold obsolete, as it is just one of a great deal of commodities.

So let us then bet that the CPI, Core CPI, PPI, or WPI does not spike by 25% (that is generous given you were speaking of an 80% gold spike) by 2010. Sound like a fair bet? That is, there will not be 25% price inflation in 2009:)

Care to take it?
 
Goldenboy219 said:
Gold is not money, as i cannot go into a car dealership and buy a brand new car with a lb of gold. I might have to overpay for a good with my gold. Gold is a store of value, not money.
Click to expand...

Money has the function of storing wealth as you know very well. And you can not go to a car dealer and pay in gold (usually) because the goverment is using the force to impose the use of paper currency. If the people could choose I think even you would agree that gold (or other hard assets) would be prefered over paper. So gold can not be fully used as money because of goverment represion, but still gold is money, or as some like to say gold has monetary value.

Goldenboy said:
So what is it you are trying to point out; that it is unnecessary to worry about the dollar price of gold when talking about currency debasement, when it is the price of all goods and services that is truly important? If what you are saying is true, then you will see a severe spike in the CPI, therefore rendering the dollar price of gold obsolete, as it is just one of a great deal of commodities.

So let us then bet that the CPI, Core CPI, PPI, or WPI does not spike by 25% (that is generous given you were speaking of an 80% gold spike) by 2010. Sound like a fair bet? That is, there will not be 25% price inflation in 2009:)

Care to take it?
Click to expand...

You are not being fair there, because the comodities and consumer goods prices can be altered by demand, and not only by monetary policy. Its the same situation as you pointing out that gold can get overpriced in the short and midle run. You were very quick spoting the gold variation but not this one.

But I could bet 10 grams of gold on some average between inflation and dollar price referenced in gold... ;)

Hugo
 
hugolp said:
Money has the function of storing wealth as you know very well. And you can not go to a car dealer and pay in gold (usually) because the goverment is using the force to impose the use of paper currency. If the people could choose I think even you would agree that gold (or other hard assets) would be prefered over paper. So gold can not be fully used as money because of goverment represion, but still gold is money, or as some like to say gold has monetary value.
Click to expand...

Then diamonds, tobacco, and relics could be deemed money. A medium of exchange comes to mind first, and store of value second, followed by a rational of value.



You are not being fair there, because the comodities and consumer goods prices can be altered by demand, and not only by monetary policy. Its the same situation as you pointing out that gold can get overpriced in the short and midle run. You were very quick spoting the gold variation but not this one.
Click to expand...

Being that we are talking about the dollar crashing, I am being more than fair, as it is the average of a whole basket of goods, not just a single commodity. Not only that, i even said 25%. The lack of overall price increases provides a clear reflection of the dollars overall strength.

The only reason you would be unwilling to take such a bet even if i brought it down to 15% is that you believe prices to be sticky;) Hmmm.....


But I could bet 10 grams of gold on some average between inflation and dollar price referenced in gold... ;)
Click to expand...

Then we would be betting on the price of gold in dollars, and not about the relative buying power of the dollar. Why gold, how about diamonds or.... oil:eek:

Instead we are betting on the crash of the dollar, meaning it will buy less overall goods, not just less gold. The dollar will not suddenly lose purchasing power overnight.
 
Money is not a store of value- it is a medium of exchange.

You are also incorrect about gold having almost no use in industry. It is in your computer and your cell phone. It is in your car. It is in some glass. But about 78% goes into jewlery. If you are manufacturing jewlery are you using gold in an industry? http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Occam's Banana
AZ - cops were called about a white suspect, so they beat & arrest a deaf black man
Replies
7
Views
2K
Brian4Liberty
Brian4Liberty
PAF
Who’s Behind J. D. Vance? Is He a CIA Candidate?
Replies
15
Views
1K
unknown
unknown
Swordsmyth
Exorcist: Yes, Voting for the “Lesser of Two Evils” Is the Moral Thing to Do
Replies
6
Views
997
ClaytonB
ClaytonB
Occam's Banana
Salon: men are punching random women in NYC because "MAGA"
2
Replies
28
Views
2K
Occam's Banana
Occam's Banana
PAF
Wall Street’s Takeover of Nature Advances with Launch of New Asset Class
Replies
2
Views
2K
devil21
D
Back
Top