Any Economic Experts Willing to Guess What's Going to Happen to the Price of Oil?

[rational thinker]

What exactly is going to happen to the price of oil over the next few months or year? Is it going to eventually decrease or will this steady rise stay permanent?

 

[Cinderella]

its not the price of oil that has gone up!!! the value of our dollar has gone down...i dont have to be an expert to tell u that...andnow that the gov has given us our incentive checks the "price of oil" will go up because we have more inflation....

i found this here...i forget where so im sorry i cant quote who wrote it:

The "price" of oil has NOT gone up!

The price of oil PER OUNCE OF GOLD has not gone up!
It has remained virtually FLAT.



Through Katrina and the war in Iraq and political instability in Nigeria and the Middle East and the closing of oil refineries for "construction", etc. etc.... during all of this when we were being told that the price of oil was going up for all of these reasons, the TRUE price of oil has remained almost exactly the same!

It is the value of the DOLLAR that has gone DOWN!

Ron Paul has been telling us for years that there is no free lunch with the Federal Reserve and their irresponsible inflation of the fiat dollar (AKA, "Federal Reserve Note").



We need to stop believing the big lies out of Washington that are designed to blind us to the truth.



Our REAL wealth, the value of our savings, the very dollar itself,' is being systematically drained through the Federal Reserve's power to print money at will!

THIS is what we should be talking about.


THIS is what we should be forwarding to our friends and families.


THIS is the greatest threat to our freedom and national sovereignty.



Wake up, America!

 

[rational thinker]

Thanks.

 

[Fox McCloud]

As the Mogambo Guru said "the price of oil has remained exactly the same in the past 60 years if priced in gold grams, but priced in dollars it has continued to climb".

he then went on to say "as the value of the dollar drops the price of oil increases; therefore, with the Fed's current policies, the dollar will approach 0, and the price of oil will reach into infinity".

(yes, the Mogambo was on a radio program; I finally got to hear the voice behind all those articles! ).

Either way, he's right; if we continue on the current path, the price of oil will just continue to rise (and so will our tax burden on gas.....20% of the price of gas is made up of taxes..yick!).

sadly, it's likely Congress will intervene and set a price cap at some point in time, which...well,.....lots of money+price ceiling = shortages within weeks (or even less than a week).

of course, Congress will continue to blame it on the oil companies, and well...it WON'T be pretty.

I predict, at the current rate, we'll hit $200 by the end of the year...if we make it that far (I don't think we will).

 

[werdd]

As the Mogambo Guru said "the price of oil has remained exactly the same in the past 60 years if priced in gold grams, but priced in dollars it has continued to climb".

he then went on to say "as the value of the dollar drops the price of oil increases; therefore, with the Fed's current policies, the dollar will approach 0, and the price of oil will reach into infinity".

(yes, the Mogambo was on a radio program; I finally got to hear the voice behind all those articles! ).

Either way, he's right; if we continue on the current path, the price of oil will just continue to rise (and so will our tax burden on gas.....20% of the price of gas is made up of taxes..yick!).

sadly, it's likely Congress will intervene and set a price cap at some point in time, which...well,.....lots of money+price ceiling = shortages within weeks (or even less than a week).

of course, Congress will continue to blame it on the oil companies, and well...it WON'T be pretty.

I predict, at the current rate, we'll hit $200 by the end of the year...if we make it that far (I don't think we will).

So is the world going to end nostradamus?

 

[jaybone]

short term, I expect a correction in the price of crude, probably to 90-100$/barrel.
It will be heralded as the end of the oil crisis by the media and politicians.
It will last 4-6 weeks, then the price will shoot directly to $150/barrel.
I am no economist, and anybody that would refer to themselves as an "expert" should be disregarded offhand.
I do follow commodites markets daily and this is the educated guess that I am managing my investments by.

Farther out, the price of oil will never go below $100 again after this coming correction, it will simply rise two steps up, then fall one step back.
This is not a seasonal issue, this is a long-term bull market driven by supply/demand and a steadily devaluing US dollar.

I put up the dough for a photovoltaic system, and I traded in my high-end sedan for a civic hybrid. This is not going to get better for any length of time.

 

[jaybone]

So is the world going to end nostradamus?

not the world, just the world as we know it.
get comfortable with that notion, it will make the transition less traumatic if you are mentally prepared.

Remember the George Carlin bit where he talks about tree huggers wanting to "save the earth"
Well, "The earth is not going anywhere, WE are!"

 

[OptionsTrader]

I am net short oil and expect the ratio of a barrel of crude to an ounce of gold to correct to the 0.12s from the mid 0.14s sooner rather than later in a profit taking move down before the next leg up.

 

[OptionsTrader]

So is the world going to end nostradamus?

Definitely. Just not for several billion more years based on the mass of our star.

 

[Fox McCloud]

If the price of oil 'corrects', that would mean the Fed is going to be strengthening the dollar....I just can't see that happening, as it is, right now....though, if they did, I would agree that the price per barrel would drop.

Is the world going to end? Yeah, eventually...I have my bets on about 1,500 years (give or take 200 years) into the future, but that's just my personal opinion....but as Jaybone said...the world isn't going to end, just yet, just our current way of life....as G. Edward Griffin outlined in his book, The Creature from Jekyll Island; things are really far gone, and it's near the tipping point where nothing can be done...if we plummet over that...well, say good-bye to your current way of life, literally, forever.

 

[polomertz]

When Priced in Dollars, I think by December of this year, it will be about $225.00 or so. I believe it will continue to climb for years to come but by 2011 or so it should be at about $750/barrel or more. We're in a massive "correction" right now and the push is for the dollar to continue to "correct" downwards. It should remain steady if priced in gold unless we have a Global Gold Rush, which Peter Schiff talks about. The Gold Rush would be strong enough to push the price of oil down in terms of gold.

 

[OptionsTrader]

If the price of oil 'corrects', that would mean the Fed is going to be strengthening the dollar

That isn't necessarily true. There's a lot of momentum money in crude, when it starts to correct, a lot of profit taking is going to commence and a lot of shorting, the drop will have bupkis to do with the fed in the short term.

 

[Cowlesy]

Definitely. Just not for several billion more years based on the mass of our star.

Awesome.

I give human civilization another 100 years in our current capacity. Just like anything else on the planet, once a population explodes like crazy, something typically happens to correct the balance in nature. We're such a destructive species toward each other that given the ballooning population, dwindling resources, massive/catastrophic destructive firepower many nations possess, we're pretty much doomed to wipe ourselves out somehow.

Beyond that, I think a 10% correction in oil is due before the next leg up. Even if demand continues to fall here, it'll increase elsewhere, and the easy-to-get-oil will continue to decrease meaning we'll need to rely on the tougher-to-get-oil which has a much higher marginal cost.

Eat drink and be happy each day No need to fret about that which we cannot control

 

[OptionsTrader]

I'll agree with a friend of mine that shorting oil to make a buck is doing it the pig headed hard way.

 

[OptionsTrader]

I'll also agree with Agent Smith that humans are basically a virus on the planet for the most part. Ron paul supporters excluded, of course.

 

[rational thinker]

Indeed.

 

[rational thinker]

OptionsTrader, I"m guessing you believe that humans are the primary cause of global warming, no?

 

[DriftWood]

Im no expert but my guess is:

- The dollar will continue to go down a long time even if the FED stared raising the interest rate. I think the slide of the dollar has more to do with a decrease in demand of the currency than an increase in supply. However in the end the dollar is backed by something. Its the only legal tender in US, its what all the workers in the US are payed in. As long as people in the US are willing to work for dollars there will some demand for it. It will never loose most of its value overnight as long as the FED don't get to crazy with the supply side, and the printing press.

- I think eventually the commodities boom will end, its a bit like a bubble. Commodities production will increase to take advantage of the relatively high prices. Relative to what? Maybe to the average American (or Chinese) wages. That will drive down prices. Some commodities like, oil are probably maxed out on the supply side so i don't think that price of oil will come down relative to anything (relative to gold or most other commodities).

- I think gold will come down (relative to most other commodities). I know that gold is money and all. But like all currencies it can be "overvalued" (in lack of a better word). People are just so freaked out now that they are shifting more of their wealth into gold, instead of holding it in investments. When people stop freaking out they will put that money back into investments, and the demand for gold will go down.

Edit: So in short i think oil will keep getting more expensive relative to gold and other commodities. In the long run gold will loose value compared to most commodities. The dollar will continue to loose value compared to most other currencies. Not sure about the gold to dollar ratio, which one will loose more in value over the long term. The US economy will eventually rebound.. Its still one of the freest economies in the world. Its just that people and the govt got a bit carried away with spending loaned money.. they will have to pay that back before they can spend more.

It would be interesting to revisit this thread in a years time and see how things actually turned out.. if i had to invest in a commodity or a currency it would be in oil. (I don't have any money to invest so I don't have any stakes in the game)

Cheers

 

[OptionsTrader]

OptionsTrader, I"m guessing you believe that humans are the primary cause of global warming, no?

No i blame warmth on that really massive fusion reactor in the sky. I almost want to worship its warmthgivingness.

 

[voytechs]

short term, I expect a correction in the price of crude, probably to 90-100$/barrel.
It will be heralded as the end of the oil crisis by the media and politicians.
It will last 4-6 weeks, then the price will shoot directly to $150/barrel.
I am no economist, and anybody that would refer to themselves as an "expert" should be disregarded offhand.
I do follow commodites markets daily and this is the educated guess that I am managing my investments by.

Farther out, the price of oil will never go below $100 again after this coming correction, it will simply rise two steps up, then fall one step back.
This is not a seasonal issue, this is a long-term bull market driven by supply/demand and a steadily devaluing US dollar.

I put up the dough for a photovoltaic system, and I traded in my high-end sedan for a civic hybrid. This is not going to get better for any length of time.

I agree, the value of gold to oil has been 10/1. Since Gold is in the 900s, the oil should be around there at tenth the ratio. I suspect both Gold and Oil (after the correction) will jump up. Gold probably will top out at $1,200/oz and oil around $150/barrel. After that, it really depends on how bad things get.

The main reason Oil will make a correction right now, is that the demand has dropped off significantly due to price ($4.05/gal in Syracuse NY, first time this weekend.) Everyone is feeling the pinch, as a result shopping malls continue to be empty, prices of food continue to rise, financial crisis is getting deeper and deeper.

I will certainly take the opportunity of this Oil correction. I've already bought some gold/silver and will purchase more soon as well.