Another Bull Market For Oil In 2009?

[DFF]

With the dollar so strong, and oil so cheap, I'm considering investing in United States Oil Company (USO). Every winter for the past several years, the price for oil has dropped, then like clockwork, shoots to the moon during summertime. Do you guys/gals think this trend will continue, or due to economic conditions, and squabbles within OPEC, will oil's current bear market extend to the summer and perhaps beyond?

 

[danberkeley]

With the dollar so strong, and oil so cheap, I'm considering investing in United States Oil Company (USO). Every winter for the past several years, the price for oil has dropped, then like clockwork, shoots to the moon during summertime. Do you guys/gals think this trend will continue, or due to economic conditions, and squabbles within OPEC, will oil's current bear market extend to the summer and perhaps beyond?

Why not go double long oil with DXO?

 

[TruthisTreason]

I know I'd rather own OIL than Fannie or Freedie or GM stock.

 

[MrNick]

I bet oil goes back up to 140 a barrel this summer and maybe higher, so Oil and gold sound like a good investment to me. My first 2,000 is going to be gold, then oil then foreign stocks.(I hope)

 

[NinjaPirate]

I bet oil goes back up to 140 a barrel this summer and maybe higher, so Oil and gold sound like a good investment to me. My first 2,000 is going to be gold, then oil then foreign stocks.(I hope)

I heard a rumor that China and some other countries holding a shit ton of PM cert's are going to make a call on those um...their PM's at the end of this year (31 Dec). If that happens, there's going to be some major turmoil in the PM market!

 

[MrNick]

I heard a rumor that China and some other countries holding a shit ton of PM cert's are going to make a call on those um...their PM's at the end of this year (31 Dec). If that happens, there's going to be some major turmoil in the PM market!

That would drive the prices up, right?

 

[NinjaPirate]

That would drive the prices up, right?

Like you wouldn't believe...

 

[DFF]

Gotta a source, Ninja?

Why not go double long oil with DXO?

What's the advantage w/DXO and going double long?

 

[MrNick]

I have heard a foreign analyst talking about people making a "run" on the Comex. I hope not, I won't have 1,000 extra to invest until Jan 5th!

 

[NinjaPirate]

Gotta a source, Ninja?

My only source is word of mouth. but it wouldn't hurt to be prepared.

 

[Cali4RonPaul]

I dont see a Oil Bull run in 2009, 2010 it will creap up.

 

[youngbuck]

Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for crude oil prices to just $45 a barrel next year as demand wanes - in a sharp U-turn from its prediction of a spike to $200 made earlier this year.

Goldman Sachs predicts fall in oil prices to $45 a barrel

 

[newyearsrevolution08]

I dont see a Oil Bull run in 2009, 2010 it will creap up.

If the economy continues to be this rocky then I don't see any "creep up" ever happening but rather sudden jolts up and down. That is how they make their money keeping the economy going up and down. Steady and safe never make LARGE profits.

 

[Epic]

Careful!

Careful!

Long term, oil will do great, because it is priced in dollars, and dollars are being printed like there's no tomorrow. And there's only so much oil on this planet.

HOWEVER - we all know this economy is getting worse. guaranteed.

The bottom will drop out in 2009. Bad economies are bad for oil. Demand is lowered.

Oil can go to $20 easy.

Be careful. Only invest money you don't need.

 

[thesnoo23]

Up, and Down....

That would drive the prices up, right?

Be careful what you buy on this assumption. If there is a major call on comex certs, then gold and silver will go through the cieling.

Gold and silver certificates, however, will go through the floor when the defaults start happening.

 

[Cowlesy]

John Mauldin wrote in his newsletter last night that the oil market is in heavy contango historically, and this is a signal that oil could go much lower.

The reason for the contango is higher storage fees, and that the demand for storage is rising, meaning that there is a backup in supply and everyone is scrambling to store the overrun.

Counteracting that, he produced a matrix from Dennis Gartman that shows the breakeven points for various oil producing countries. This could forecast massive supply contractions to try and force up the price.

Unfortunately, counteracting THAT, is the fact these countries need cashflows to keep a cap on civil unrest. This means they need to continue selling as much as they can, not sitting on it in the ground.

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo121208.pdf

 

[MrNick]

Be careful what you buy on this assumption. If there is a major call on comex certs, then gold and silver will go through the cieling.

Gold and silver certificates, however, will go through the floor when the defaults start happening.

Crap I was thinking of buying GLD because it would be easier then buying an ounce of gold and cheaper. I heard buying a physical ounce of gold cost around 500 more then what it's worth.