Ann Coulter: I thought Ron Paul was going to win Iowa
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Christian Liberty
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What exactly did you go for? To call her an evil witch? She makes Mark Levin look like a peacenik in comparison, she's so nutty.
CPUd
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She was probably thinking of the Ames Straw Poll, where Rick Santorum placed 1st, Mitt Romney placed 2nd, Newt Gingrich placed 4th, Rick Perry placed 5th and Michele Bachmann placed 6th.
eleganz
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Went on a last minute whim to do some campaigning. I'm just gonna leave it like that, I like to be vague.
I was receiving emails about how the "show" was going to be sold out and how they needed money for more security for protestors. It was like only 60% full and the security told me only 5 protestors. All she really did during her time was beat on the left. She criticized the right a little bit for running candidates against Republicans in primaries, how it was ok to do it to Christine O'Donnells but not the Mike Enzi's.
This.
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It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
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Matt Collins
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Uh, no. Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll in 2011.
You may be thinking of the caucus straw polls on Jan 3rd, 2012, although Ron placed 3rd there (depending on who was counting).
Matt Collins
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Everyone thought Ron was going to win, even Drudge.
That's why they puffed up Santorum at the last minute, to help prevent our victory in the straw poll. We would've been a nearly unstoppable force at that point if we had taken first in Iowa and 2nd in NH.
RP placed a distant third, the real question was did Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum win it. Ron was several thousand votes behind those two. And I'm sure Ron Paul 2012 could point us to the missing votes, if there were some, because they had all the help they needed in Iowa and turned away supporters because they had it under control.
As for Ann thinking RP was going to win the popular vote, she must have been tuned completely out for the entire month of December.
CPUd
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Yes, I meant the caucus poll; Bachmann won the Ames poll, and Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum came in 3rd and 4th.
Matt Collins
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uhh... 3% points of 1st place is NOT "distant"
I think honestly that is within the realm of counting error. So it may be impossible to determine. It's a difference of 0.03% between #1 and #2
The PCC turned away people who were trying to play a self-gratifying game that was outside of the strategic plan which would likely have embarrassed the candidate and angered the locals, thus causing him to lose even more votes.
Huh? Ron Paul was first or tied for first in 6 of the final 12 polls in December and 2nd in the other 6.
He lost by almost 4,000 votes to both of them, in a state that had only about 120,000 vote in it. Unless the campaign can show where those magical votes went, like you were suggesting with the "depending on who was counting" portion, then we shouldn't play that game. I mean, they had it under control, and now you're claiming they only turned away those that might have embarrassed the candidate? Ron Paul 2012 did that on its own. Not only the candidate, but his supporters as well.
Ann might have thought Ron was going to win it, but only if she wasn't watching the TV or paying attention to any poll right before it in late December/January.
Huh? Ron Paul was first or tied for first in 6 of the final 12 polls in December and 2nd in the other 6.
Yes, and who was rising quickly in third? Polls are usually 2-4 weeks behind public perception, as shown with Herman Cain's issue. Even after the initial charges, he was still polling first and increasing in some cases.
The Des Moines Register did a poll, and here's what is showed:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-31/iowa-poll-gop-caucuses/52308788/1
"If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."
That was posted on December 31st I believe. Which would go with why I said RP went home for the holiday, he knew he wasn't going to win it from internal polls.
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You said the entire month of December, not the final 2 days. Either way, Ron Paul got exactly the percentage he was polling at in the final half dozen polls. Santorum obviously had momentum, but there was no assurance of either his or Romney's victory, especially when Ron Paul supporters were believed to be more highly motivated. Who actually won is still an open question, last I heard.
Paul could very easily have gone home for the holidays for publicity reasons. It made candidates who did not seem like they cared more about the office than their families. That kind of thing would play well in Iowa, I think.
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Peace&Freedom
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There was no scientific basis for 'considering separately' the last two days of voting other than to find something for the media to latch onto to push the narrative of a 'Santorum surge.' That was the famous inadequate sample from a segment of the poll, that was used to create a figleaf of plausibility to justify a non-stop push for Santorum in the media coverage. It was given saturation media coverage, whereas the full poll showed Paul with a much stronger showing. The point being, the Santorum surge was more manufactured than real, and given momentum by the media's push for anybody but Paul.
If you're going to talk about it being a 2 week phenomenom, you have to focus in on the two weeks of negative coverage bombarding Paul (on the newsletters), to monkey wrench his momentum. And then there is the case of the uncounted votes, missing votes, etc that a ton of us noted at the time in about 100 threads on the events of January 3, 2012. Let there be no false revisionist history, Paul was going to win IA or place a very close second, period.
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