Almost a perfect victory for Ron Paul

[gaazn]

The only thing that could have gone better was for him to place fourth, ahead of McCain. This would have left New Hampshire in a mess and easier for Paul to place higher. But as it now stands, all the major candidates are still in the race which is a good thing. Ron Paul needs Fred Thompson and Huckabee to remain in the race, so if he had placed third ahead of Thompson, it would have knocked Thompson out. Now Huckabee and Thompson gets to split the vote later in SC.

For a perfect victory in New Hampshire, Romney needs to barely beat McCain and Paul must finish a strong third. He needs to finish above Huckabee and Thompson, but below McCain to keep McCain in the race, but end the media over-bias toward McCain.

This would leave Romney & McCain fighting over Michigan.

Then in SC, the stalemate and the fact that everyone remains in the race allows Paul to place second in both Nevada and South Carolina, and give him the Paulmentum backed by a lot of $$$.

 

[RonPaulFTFW]

You do have a point.

the more fragmented it is the longer we can stay in it.

of course the bad side is the democrats get stronger and stronger....

 

[acptulsa]

The Democrats are building strength? I suspect that's nonsense. There's a post titled "Feeling down about Iowa? Read this". Please do. A couple of the posts (like mine) are long, but I think they're worth it.

 

[usmcZ]

The only thing that could have gone better was for him to place fourth, ahead of McCain. This would have left New Hampshire in a mess and easier for Paul to place higher. But as it now stands, all the major candidates are still in the race which is a good thing. Ron Paul needs Fred Thompson and Huckabee to remain in the race, so if he had placed third ahead of Thompson, it would have knocked Thompson out. Now Huckabee and Thompson gets to split the vote later in SC.

For a perfect victory in New Hampshire, Romney needs to barely beat McCain and Paul must finish a strong third. He needs to finish above Huckabee and Thompson, but below McCain to keep McCain in the race, but end the media over-bias toward McCain.

This would leave Romney & McCain fighting over Michigan.

Then in SC, the stalemate and the fact that everyone remains in the race allows Paul to place second in both Nevada and South Carolina, and give him the Paulmentum backed by a lot of $$$.

Paulmentum, lol.


That would be nice, but Paul annihilating NH would also be nice.

 

[Original_Intent]

You do have a point.

the more fragmented it is the longer we can stay in it.

of course the bad side is the democrats get stronger and stronger....

I actually think the Democrats raising tons of money in the Primary is a good thing - they can spend it fighting each other and hopefully the weel will be dry for the general.

Iowa essentially a three way split means they will all need to start spending big time elsewhere, especially Clinton. Obama won't be able to rest on his laurels at all either.

 

[Electrostatic]

Also I have a feeling Rudy is going to be spending the rest of his war chest on negative ads the next few days (desperation...)

I hope it will be targeted against others..

 

[tamor]

bump

 

[goldstandard]

Then in SC, the stalemate and the fact that everyone remains in the race allows Paul to place second in both Nevada and South Carolina, and give him the Paulmentum backed by a lot of $$$.

+1, step by step

 

[realist]

I respectfully disagree. 3rd place would have been a victory and 1st place would have been a perfect victory.

I understand your arguement relative to positioning but, I would argue that momentum and an expanding support base are MUCH more important.

One of the biggest obstacles I encounter in speaking to people is Ron Pauls electability. His message is good... almost too good to be beleiveable and that futher hurts the electability issue.

If we don't start placing well and showing that he is electable, most reasonable, seasoned voters will side with the candidate that is BOTH electable and in reasonable aliance with their views. This has been shown over and over agian- to ignore it in the face of the facts is silly!

What happens next is what happens in all organizations (and empires as Dr. Paul points out) - inflows of cash decline as the base shrinks. Those young energetic idealists become overburdened trying to carry the load and economic colapse ends forward progression.

Also- keep in mind that the $25 mil that was raised last year won't go far beyond super Tuesday and while that could force an end to all this- even an outright victory there is still a minor battle victory. Much larger war remains unfaught with little to suggest that are chances even "good "given where the GOP has placed us in the general election.

These are the facts- spinning them to make them look better only lulls us into a false sense of security.

 

[gaazn]

Placing 1st would have been devastating. Fox News and the other candidates are hammering Ron Paul any time they gets and he's placing in single digits in the polls. Can you imagine what would happen if he had won Iowa?? He'd have everyone targeting him. Placing third would have been bad as well. Huckabee, Thompson, and McCain compete over votes. If Thompson drops out, then McCain gets some of his voters and Huckabee gets a bunch of his Southern support. This would allow Huckabee to consolidate the Southern vote and use Al Gore's and later Bill Clinton's southern strategy to win the South and the nomination. Fourth in Iowa would have been the best-long term.

Ron Paul is a smart guy and he surely thinks many steps ahead and not the immediate short-term. It's better to stay below radar and slowly meet and beat expectations. That's why he wasn't foolish enough to waste lots of money in Iowa.

 

[Paul10]

....

 

[malibu]

I'll agree in that by Thompson stealing Romney votes because of the negative ads - although he passed Ron Paul in totals - he messed up Mitt which is good in that the whole thing is more mixed up than ever - more likely there could be no consensus reached before convention. The best scenario for us?
A Romney Huckabee tie with RP in a complete third would have been more media.

Fred and McCain did NOT win a single precinct - Ron Paul did win some college town precincts so I am confident RP is third in the delegate count.

so yeah, Thompson may be doing us some good - he's got no Iowa delegates to barter with in the final analysis either.

 

[IndieRocker79]

This was a good post. I was actually QUITE happy with Dr. Paul's marginal 5th place, only a few percentage points below 3rd. This already exceeded all the non-Paulites' expectations of his chances, and for him to come in 3rd in NH would most definitely give him the momentum he needs. Also a good finish in Michigan is essential, IMO, because between NH and MI nailing at least third will show him as being consistently in the race in states with many different demographics.

I think spending all that money in Iowa would have been a waste, I think everyone that has a negative view of where Dr. Paul is at right now needs to wake up. 5th in Iowa, 3rd or 4th in NH, 2nd or 3rd in Michigan, and we're totally going to pick up tons of delegates on Super Tuesday. He just has to stay a viable candidate and pick up the delegates, he doesn't even necessarily have to WIN a lot of states to WIN the nomination, as long as he's consistently sweeping up delegates everywhere and keeping the race contested.

We need to keep the momentum going, and instead of bickering and whining and calling for new leadership in the campaign and so on and so forth, analyzing data, etc. we just need to keep doing what we're doing and even more so....keep donating, keep canvasing, keep rallying, wave those signs, talk to people, get the support where we need it when we need it!

Let's just focus on getting some turnout in NH, WY, and MI these next 2 weeks, then move on to obliterating the 20 Super Tuesday states and watch Ron Paul's delegate count go through the roof!!!

 

[Molly1]

Do you think Ron Paul could point out to South Carolina that he is a Christian, too?

How about Ron Paul: He's a Christian, too.

Huckelberry is acting like he invented Christianity.