According to Intrade right now, RP has an 44.56% chance of coming in 1st OR second in Iowa
Chance for 1st:23%
Chance for 2nd:28%
23% + (77%*28%) = 44.56%
Seems like the DMR poll has already been reflected as there was a before/after drop. Seems very volatile still though
Chance for 1st:23%
Chance for 2nd:28%
23% + (77%*28%) = 44.56%
Seems like the DMR poll has already been reflected as there was a before/after drop. Seems very volatile still though
