Basically you would be placing a bet on where you think the economy will go. If we get a big batch of bad economic news, things like gold and silver will probably go up. If things get a little better or even just muddle along as they are now, you probably won't see much action as far as higher metal prices go. It's an emotional thing- people's confidence in the future. Last time we saw a big bump in the price of metals was around 1980. Back then we also saw high inflation combined with high interest rates(both double digit) along with double digit unemployment (slightly higher than even the recession now though it did not last as long). After that, things were not nearly as bad until now and the prices of metals declined for about 20 years. Yes, there was the occasional recession every few years, but short and not that deep. Have we passed the worst this time around? Or is there more to come? That is what you need to ask yourself.