A Brokered Convention

[Ronin Truth]

Don't put it off, get your smoke-filled convention rooms reservations, in early.

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

Depends on the other candidates.

Only if you're if implying someone else may run. The 14 dwarves are all RNC stooges.

And the supporters themselves

You underestimate the authoritarian streak in these people. They love being told what to do.

I can't see the Cruz people necessarily going to Bush.

Just wait. Cruz will tearfully that announce that althuogh he deeply respects his good friend Rand Paul, Rand Paul just can't be trusted to kill enough Arabs and he probably hates the Jews too. With a heavy heart, he will reluctantly instruct his delegates to vote for Bush.

 

[acptulsa]

With a heavy heart, he will reluctantly instruct his delegates to vote for Bush.

Who the hell cares? If we pack the house, we will vote for Trump just as often as the laws of our states require, and then the teleprompter will adjourn the convention and reconvene in some country club that doesn't allow libertarians on the property.

But at least the American people will be completely disabused of the notion that they live in a republic.

 

[rich34]

Who the hell cares? If we pack the house, we will vote for Trump just as often as the laws of our states require, and then the teleprompter will adjourn the convention and reconvene in some country club that doesn't allow libertarians on the property.

But at least the American people will be completely disabused of the notion that they live in a republic.

I'm just guessing but I think the republican establishment don't want Trump almost as bad as not wanting Rand. This Ian't because Trump is real like Rand but more so that's how bad they believe this election belongs to another Bush.. My hope is Rand can at least come in third in the delegate count and if Rands supporters refuse to compromise it'll be up to Trumps or Bush's supporters to compromise and if Trumpet are as anti establishment as they claim they'll go to Rand before they do Bush. I really think with Trump in the field with Bush there is a very good chance that no one will get the required amount on the first vote. If it goes to the second round all bets are off and anything is possible.

 

[acptulsa]

I'm just guessing but I think the republican establishment don't want Trump almost as bad as not wanting Rand. This Ian't because Trump is real like Rand but more so that's how bad they believe this election belongs to another Bush.. My hope is Rand can at least come in third in the delegate count and if Rands supporters refuse to compromise it'll be up to Trumps or Bush's supporters to compromise and if Trumpet are as anti establishment as they claim they'll go to Rand before they do Bush. I really think with Trump in the field with Bush there is a very good chance that no one will get the required amount on the first vote. If it goes to the second round all bets are off and anything is possible.

I don't know about you, but in my state the delegates to National aren't vetted for which particular candidate all that much. Word does get around. The libertarians are generally well known. And sometimes in the majority.

The others might include some Trump people. And they could actually go either way. But there won't be many. Trump is a sideshow to befuddle the unwashed masses.

They will vote as they must. That will be almost over by the third round, and by then it will be the classic smoke filled room.

 

[rich34]

I don't know about you, but in my state the delegates to National aren't vetted for which particular candidate all that much. Word does get around. The libertarians are generally well known. And sometimes in the majority.

The others might include some Trump people. And they could actually go either way. But there won't be many. Trump is a sideshow to befuddle the unwashed masses.

They will vote as they must. That will be almost over by the third round, and by then it will be the classic smoke filled room.

You could very well be right friend. But even at that this might be the only shot Rand has. I'm just not sure I can see him winning straight up. Perhaps if he can come in 2nd in the delegate race, or hopefully first and maybe he'll have a better shot. I understand the smoke filled room thing, but many Trump delegates may be just like Ron's people in 2008/2012 where many it will be their first rodeo and hopefully will be to dissatisfied with the system to vote for any establishment candidate like Jeb Bush. Maybe if it gets to this, Ron can threaten to run third party if they wanna pull some shenanigans?

 

[Jan2017]

2470 delegates total so 1236 to win GOP nomination . . . Iowa has all of "30" delegates to offer California has 172 delegates at stake in their primary.

 

[erowe1]

2470 delegates total so 1236 to win GOP nomination . . . Iowa has all of "30" delegates to offer California has 172 delegates at stake in their primary.

As I understand it, the new RNC rules don't allow states to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis unless the winner received an absolute majority of the vote. That will make a big difference here I think. I don't see Trump winning. But I do see him stopping any establishment candidate from going to the convention with the nomination already locked up.

 

[Jan2017]

As I understand it, the new RNC rules don't allow states to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis unless the winner received an absolute majority of the vote. That will make a big difference here I think. I don't see Trump winning. But I do see him stopping any establishment candidate from going to the convention with the nomination already locked up.

Yup . . . I see it as nobody getting to 1236 actually committed delegates before the convention -
Fox and the bs media will have already awarded totals like Iowa who has zero committed delegates even,
but it doesn't mean anything.

Every state split up . . . and Rand in for the duration now
because of the KY caucus.

 

[rich34]

As I understand it, the new RNC rules don't allow states to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis unless the winner received an absolute majority of the vote. That will make a big difference here I think. I don't see Trump winning. But I do see him stopping any establishment candidate from going to the convention with the nomination already locked up.

Spot on! I agree, I think when the establishment changed the rules they didn't count on Trump being in the race. Although by not allowing any winner take all states, it seems it would make it tougher for any candidate to win outright which is why I felt like they stacked the race with all establishment guys so they can nominate Jeb Bush. With Trump's supporters involved at this moment I can't see them simply being told to back Bush when it comes time to vote. Although I may feel that many of his supporters are misguided and he's not anti establishment as they think, but nonetheless they are and I can't see them simply rolling over. This is where I hope if they see the establishment is not going to let Trump win they go to Rand's corner because he's the only true anti establishment candidate. However for this to happen Rand does need as many delegates as possible because I can't see delegates from the other candidates going to him, they'll all be establishment folks. I think Trump and Cruz are trying to form some kind of alliance, and if Cruz can garner enough delegates to put Trump over then that's where they'll go and the game will be over. Cruz being close to Goldman Sachs could be were this alliance comes from I have no idea. Regardless Rand MUST walk into the convention coming in at least 3rd in the delegate race. I think anything less than that and he won't have a chance.

Honestly though it's wide open regardless of what the media says, at this point I think it'll be tough for even Bush to walk in with the most delegates. Trump has all the momentum at this point, but are his supporters going to know how to play the delegate game? This is where I think Rand has an advantage over some of the new comers running this time. You know the establishment knows how to play the game so Bush will by default benefit from that, but are the other candidates besides Bush going to know how to play the game? I know many will say, yeah but the delegates will be bound to "said" candidate if they win the primary. Sure, but the grassroots can still go ahead and win those delegate slots and if no candidate wins in the first round, those babies will be unbound in round two voting for Rand. Since Ron's hardcore supporters already know the game this is why I think it's important that Ron eventually hits the campaign trail getting his people willing to participate.

 

[cindy25]

after March 15th all primaries and caucuses must be winner take all.

the establishment will just seat the Jeb delegates, and steal it as they did in 1940, 1952, 1976.

there is one way, and that would be if Trump had 45%, Jeb 45% and Rand 10%. if Rand played the game right, he could make a deal with one of the two, either to be Trump's VP (not a bad place, as Trump is nearly 70 and will be one term) or bluff all the way and offer Jeb the VP of Rand

 

[acptulsa]

after March 15th all priaries must be winner take all.

I've never heard of a winner take all prairie.

And we won't get anywhere this time by ignoring that several of the winner take all states are only winner take all if the winner gets a simple plurality of the votes. Which is unlikely in a race where the leader is only getting 30%, and that seems to be his ceiling because two thirds of Americans wouldn't trust him to inspect their cars' mufflers.

Got any more kindhearted words of discouragement to bolster our spirits with?

 

[cindy25]

edit made.

the rules were set for Jeb, with Trump not expected.

 

[acptulsa]

You're still not making a lick of sense. You do realize that states pick their own delegates through the local party apparatus, right? And that 'winner take all' affects how a state votes (maybe, if one candidate gets a plurality in many cases, which is unlikely to happen this round), and the convention is in no way winner take all, right?

Want to try that message of gloom again and see if you can make it make sense?

 

[acptulsa]

No?

Too bad. Because they knew we were good at getting delegates into the hall when they threw every Republican, a Democrat or two, and the kitchen sink into this GOP primary race.

I'd sure like to know what they're up to with this. Have they got that much faith in the new Romney Rules they shoved through in 2012?

 

[Jan2017]

There are some winner take all primaries . . . or used to be.

But it comes down to bound delegates too - Romney took all delegates in some states after Santorum dropped out -
Ron Paul stayed in . . . and Rand can now as well with the KY presidential caucus in March and Senate primary in May.

 

[69360]

Who the hell cares? If we pack the house, we will vote for Trump just as often as the laws of our states require, and then the teleprompter will adjourn the convention and reconvene in some country club that doesn't allow libertarians on the property.

But at least the American people will be completely disabused of the notion that they live in a republic.

We will vote for Trump? Speak for yourself. There is nothing that could get me to vote for that assclown Trump, nothing. I'd vote for Bush over Trump.

This is pointless, the convention won't be contested. Trump will be a distant memory by then having scandaled or bimbo exploded out of the race and Jeb will be nominated by consensus. There will probably be a decent contingent of Rand delegates who stand their ground just like Ron's did and I think that is good.

 

[acptulsa]

We will vote for Trump? Speak for yourself. There is nothing that could get me to vote for that assclown Trump, nothing. I'd vote for Bush over Trump.

Are you a delegate from your state to the national convention? Then you have the luxury of ignoring your state's laws governing delegates to national conventions.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Are you a delegate from your state to the national convention? Then you have the luxury of ignoring your state's laws governing delegates to national conventions.

I could be wrong, but I think that is what was changed at the last RNC.

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

States can award all the delegates to the plurality winner if they hold their primary/caucus after a certain date. I think it's March 15. The RNC was banking on Jeb winning Florida and several of the later big states this way before Trump messed up their plans.

It's kind of a bummer that the Kentucky caucus is being held as early as it is. Presumably Rand will place first. I wonder if he just didn't have the juice to hold it later & do it winner-take-it-all.