6 Months

[ForLibertyFight]

Could the economy or dollar collapse within the next 6 months? If so what are some of the potential causes?

 

[jclay2]

Most likely we will not have a dollar collapse within the next 6 months. We could, though, have a nasty recession and the beginning of a 1970's flat line market. Or, we could have 1 to 2 quarters of negative gdp growth and then the start of a decent bull run. You just don't really know, however, the dollar collapse is probably not going to happen within the next 6 months imho.

 

[AceNZ]

Could the economy or dollar collapse within the next 6 months? If so what are some of the potential causes?

The dollar is already collapsing. It's down about 37% since early 2002.

The economy is in bad shape, and is also already in the process of collapsing. Don't believe government economy statistics. Things are already worse than they were in the 1970s, and will get much worse before it gets better.

The causes include rampant inflation and other manipulations by the Fed, including artificially low interest rates, which caused the now-collapsing housing bubble. Credit card debt is next. Basically, Americans have gone from being savers and producers to being consumers. In the process, most of America's wealth has been transferred overseas. Unlike previous recessions, this one is structural -- America's manufacturing base is largely gone.

It's not a pretty picture. Listen to people like Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and Chalmers Johnson. They have some good stuff on YouTube.

 

[mleclerc]

what we think is irrelevent

The only factor which will determine when we get a dollar crash is whether the elite think it is best to continue the credit expansion game by "rolling over" the toxic derivatives as they mature or whether it will be more profitable to pop the bubble, cause the crash and scoop up the ashes for 10 cents on the dollar... It seems this is how it is playing out:

This "stimulus package" is looking like a bandaid to tide over the sheeple until after the elections, just look at the weanies in Washington run! Have you ever seen congress work so fast??? They know TSHTF soon if they don't get this done quick... The inflation will not be fully felt until later this year and the write offs of 100's of billions is causing a real credit contraction right now, which is offsetting this new money. So it brings us back to the question whether the big money elite will roll over the debts or let them crash and be bailed out by our govn't, under the auspice of "helping" our economy out. Wadda Country... it looks like they're getting both!

Alot of the wealth taken from America has been reinvested in China and emerging countries. They've made a killing the last 10 years... now China's asset prices are too high. Also, global commodities prices are all at record highs. A nice little crash will provide an entry point, and this is one reason why I think gold is at a record high.... they're cycling out of paper assets before they pull the plug, just a small amount of that money is in gold, alot more in hedges, private equity and "soviergn wealth" funds. After a nasty little 30-50% correction they will scoop up commodities big time to fuel the 1 billion + person industrial revolution in Indo/China that will make our little 100 million person industrial revolution of last century look quaint and America will be just another state in their global community of consumerslaves. (As AceNZ stated above, this time its structural, not a cyclical event).

For a good example of this, look what they did to manipulate nickel prices last year; check out kitco.com base metal charts.

 

[CitizenPlain]

It's not going to get better--

until Dr. Paul gets in the white house with his
veto power.
As he often states, we first have to stop the
foolish spending overseas. Then we start
start spending the funds we reclaim from
there , here on our own country.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

The GREED and Rich will make everyone else pay in the long long...

Collapse... most the world's financial advisers have already stated they cannot let the US markets collapse.

So, the World is Baby sitting America's Bad Credit... I wonder the US governments credit rating would be is they call FREE-CREDIT-REPORT.com lol

Every American individual is responsible and held hostage to the BANKS/FINANCIAL Corporations about their credit ratings and are penalized in other sectors that don't even relate to credit rating (Car Insurance, Job hiring, even getting a mobile phone account...basically we're all held accountable for EVERYTHING) but; IRRESPONSIBLE, CORRUPT, INCOMPETENT GOVERNMENT aren't held accountable for anything!

DISGUSTING

 

[Sarge]

Take a look at this news,

http://money.excite.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?news_id=ap-d8udnlj80&

If they withdraw money and then China starts it is going to get beyond ugly.

Iran setting up an oil trading exchange this next month. My guess payments in the Euro.

The average American, that is not paying attention, is going to get creamed before they wake up.

 

[Sarge]

I just found this news item,

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL25899920080126

Nothing positive for months and likely worse from this meeting taking place now.

 

[tsetsefly]

The dollar is already collapsing. It's down about 37% since early 2002.

The economy is in bad shape, and is also already in the process of collapsing. Don't believe government economy statistics. Things are already worse than they were in the 1970s, and will get much worse before it gets better.

The causes include rampant inflation and other manipulations by the Fed, including artificially low interest rates, which caused the now-collapsing housing bubble. Credit card debt is next. Basically, Americans have gone from being savers and producers to being consumers. In the process, most of America's wealth has been transferred overseas. Unlike previous recessions, this one is structural -- America's manufacturing base is largely gone.

It's not a pretty picture. Listen to people like Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and Chalmers Johnson. They have some good stuff on YouTube.

I believe the fed would intervene though if the recession gets pretty bad, and rise inflation rates substantially, or at least I hope they do.

 

[tsetsefly]

The GREED and Rich will make everyone else pay in the long long...

Collapse... most the world's financial advisers have already stated they cannot let the US markets collapse.

So, the World is Baby sitting America's Bad Credit... I wonder the US governments credit rating would be is they call FREE-CREDIT-REPORT.com lol

Every American individual is responsible and held hostage to the BANKS/FINANCIAL Corporations about their credit ratings and are penalized in other sectors that don't even relate to credit rating (Car Insurance, Job hiring, even getting a mobile phone account...basically we're all held accountable for EVERYTHING) but; IRRESPONSIBLE, CORRUPT, INCOMPETENT GOVERNMENT aren't held accountable for anything!

DISGUSTING

No they wont, this has more to do with stupid monetary policy than greed or the rich. In fact the rich, aside from maybe a few banks have nothing to do with this.

Remember most people have erroneous ideas on monetary policy, its the minority who sees what the fed is doing as bad.

 

[RonPaul_SantaMonica]

Experts, I have a question. What do you think will happen to emerging market currencies. India has seen a lot of $ inflows. Lets say US goes into recession. Will that cause India's currency to appreciate or depreciate some more? I can make a case for both
a. appreciate -> weaker US economy makes India a better investment opportunity, hence, inflow of dollars
b. depreciate -> global liquidity crunch -> money that flowed in will now flow out. Similar to 1997 Asian crisis.

Any thoughts?

 

[RonPaul_SantaMonica]

Experts, I have a question. What do you think will happen to emerging market currencies. India has seen a lot of $ inflows. Lets say US goes into recession. Will that cause India's currency to appreciate or depreciate some more? I can make a case for both
a. appreciate -> weaker US economy makes India a better investment opportunity, hence, inflow of dollars
b. depreciate -> global liquidity crunch -> money that flowed in will now flow out. Similar to 1997 Asian crisis.

Any thoughts?

Bump.

 

[mleclerc]

Take a look at this news,

http://money.excite.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?news_id=ap-d8udnlj80&

If they withdraw money and then China starts it is going to get beyond ugly.

Iran setting up an oil trading exchange this next month. My guess payments in the Euro.

The average American, that is not paying attention, is going to get creamed before they wake up.

Regarding Iran and them setting up to accept payment for oil in Euros:

Watch "The Energy Non-Crisis" on Google videos:
h ttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147

This gentleman's experiences help us understand what the motives are behind this administration's obsession is over Iran... and it's NOT terrorism or nukes.

 

[Allen72289]

The collapse is happening.

I don't know when it will finish however, if Ron Paul is not elected I'm leaving NC for Idaho to mine a good mine claim I have.

If Paul is not elected things will only become worse for a period of time before and after the intial collapse.

The fall of the soviet union is a good example.

We can change the tide though, we need politicians in local government.

Gotta attack the beast at it's weakest point before we can slay it.

 

[davver]

It has been happening since 2000. Currencies don't crash in a day like stock markets. They just bleed to death over a few years. Look for the process to accelerate as the Fed lowers rates.

 

[AceNZ]

I believe the fed would intervene though if the recession gets pretty bad, and rise inflation rates substantially, or at least I hope they do.

The Fed can delay the pain, but in the process it makes things worse in the long run. Sure, they will intervene again and lower interest rates even more. The problem is that inflation won't pull us out of the recession this time. The country needs to trim excess capacity and rebuild productive assets.

Experts, I have a question. What do you think will happen to emerging market currencies. India has seen a lot of $ inflows. Lets say US goes into recession. Will that cause India's currency to appreciate or depreciate some more? I can make a case for both
a. appreciate -> weaker US economy makes India a better investment opportunity, hence, inflow of dollars
b. depreciate -> global liquidity crunch -> money that flowed in will now flow out. Similar to 1997 Asian crisis.

Any thoughts?

First, I don't think the rest of the world will go into recession like the US -- they won't "catch our cold". I'm betting that foreign markets will dip in fear at first (good buying opportunity) and then bounce back strongly when they discover that they don't need the US to buy their goods in order to be successful.

However, I'm bearish on India. They have too many infrastructure problems for my liking. I think there are economies out there that will do much better than India (such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc).

 

[liberty_Forever]

No one knows what will happen. I would be hedged for both deflation and hyperinflation.

This means you want CASH and GOLD.

 

[RonPaul_SantaMonica]

Thanks for the reply. Question: Wouldn't infrastructure stocks be a good buy then? Also, how do would the currencies react?

The Fed can delay the pain, but in the process it makes things worse in the long run. Sure, they will intervene again and lower interest rates even more. The problem is that inflation won't pull us out of the recession this time. The country needs to trim excess capacity and rebuild productive assets.




First, I don't think the rest of the world will go into recession like the US -- they won't "catch our cold". I'm betting that foreign markets will dip in fear at first (good buying opportunity) and then bounce back strongly when they discover that they don't need the US to buy their goods in order to be successful.

However, I'm bearish on India. They have too many infrastructure problems for my liking. I think there are economies out there that will do much better than India (such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc).

 

[liberty_Forever]

My personal economic opinion is that we will enter a severe global recession. Here I disagree with AceNZ, although we generally have similar thoughts. . . I do not think foreign markets will escape the collapse of the Western credit system. So I personally would not be doing any foreign investing in 2008, besides short-term government bonds in countries with sound economic policy (Canada, New Zealand, etc). The best way invest in foreign currency are probably the ETFs and the Merk Hard Currency Fund.

I would *not* by any stocks. The only stocks worth buying IMO are energy and mining stocks, but even these have been subject to the liquidity pressures in the faltering credit system.

I am VERY concerned about a global recession, and one of the main pieces of data which scares the hell out of me is the Baltic Dry Goods Index:

Blue Line Is Baltic Dry Index, Orange Line is Gold

 

[Fox McCloud]

the dollar collapsing in 6 months? My hunch says no, but I think there's going to be some big event that will effect our economy, dollar, or stock-markets within the next 6 months.

Really, at this point, we're screwed no matter what we do; if we lower interest rates to combat a stock crash, we'll demolish what's left of our dollar...if we raise interest rates and fight inflation, we could end up crashing the economy.

Either way, if we're not careful, we could end up destroying both.

As I always point out to people (and some just don't get it, but a lot do), if China or the Middle-East starts dumping our dollar (or both), we're finished; they'll cause massive inflation, with our dollars coming home to roost, and they'll end up buying most of what little true capital we have left.

if nothing happens before the elections, I'll be surprised. My gut feeling is the PtB (Powers that Be) are trying to stave it off until after the elections; if they do it now, it could make Ron Paul look like a prophet....and people just mind give him a landslide victory (it could tilt the other way too, but it's still a risk on their part).

Anyway, no matter what happens, it'll be a very interesting scene, the next few months.

global recession/depression? I really don't know; I personally think so, as many many economies have developed huge bubbles (Japan, the EU, etc). If enough pop, it'll be enough to bring even the strong foreign markets down. I could be dead wrong though.