3rd in Iowa, 2nd in NH, 1st in South Carolina

CNN shill sez Ron is 12% in SC?...damn...just yesterday i saw 9...looks like i better pay attention to SC now.
 
RabbitMan said:
I think anyone who is both viewing the campaign strategy and the election outlooks seriously understands that we were looking for strong Iowa and new hampshires to give us momentum leading up to nevada and super Tuesday with the caucus states we are banking on. South Carolina and Florida were never really part of the plan, so 3rd and up is all we can hope for realistically.
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Exactly.

If we look at this all objectively, you have to see that the campaign wants to play strong in the caucus states and probably hit Mitt in two or three big states where he will probably be weak - Pennsylvania and Texas. As the other candidates fall off and this breaks down into a Paul versus Mittens campaign, the electorate will remember why they hate Romney so much - he's a vapid, empty, plastic shell.
 
trey4sports said:
well, you're going to be very disappointed then because second in S.C. is not going to be easy very realistic.
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2nd is a possibility. Ron is a fighter, and Newt, Santorum and Romney are all going to blow a lot of money in SC tearing eachother down. If we can slip in with positive ads we can have a strong 3rd, or a modest 2nd. A DeMint endorsement would help a lot. ZanZibar keeps telling us to watch DeMint on freedom watch any time "endorsement" is mentioned, so I'll be sure to do that.
 
AquaBuddha2010 said:
Nah. I disagree. We have the ability to do great in some of these western states.
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It isn't really about what we can do later... It's about Romney. If he wins the first 3 states and doesn't have a clear challenger, just a bunch of candidates jockeying for 2nd, then people will anoint him.

I am talking from a point of being the anti-Romney. You can't finish 3rd and talk about being the anti-Romney. If we want to keep the narrative of a 2 man race then we need to be finishing at least second, or else it doesn't make sense.
 
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2012-01-06-Blumenthal-scchart120106.png


I was telling people Santorum wasn't done in Iowa and we had to worry about South Carolina. We've got the material to take him down now and the time. Gingrich seemed unbeatable once too. (And while Gingrich is dropping in S.C. he needs to drop some more).
 
braane said:
It isn't really about what we can do later... It's about Romney. If he wins the first 3 states and doesn't have a clear challenger, just a bunch of candidates jockeying for 2nd, then people will anoint him.
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But that won't stick, because we'll continue competing in the 47 other states and every other territory. If Romney wins, he'll have to campaign to the bitter end to do so. The Liberty Message will be getting ever increasing play over the airwaves and in the media if we keep the campaign's coffers full.
 
SC is totally in play. Newt will make SC his last stand and he has a few million to spend. Looks like he's going to spend it bashing Romney. This is fine, as Newt voters hate RP. Newt and Mitt can split the establishment vote (Newt gets as many Liberal votes in SC as he does Conservative). RP needs to take the evangelical/conservative vote from Santorum and Perry.

If newt is sucessfull, he may pull Romney down to 25% and match it. That would be ideal. If RP can take half of Santorum's and Perry's support, he's right there in 1st place. Part of this will be the natural evolution of the strong showing in NH. The rest will be grassroots action and official campaign ads.

Oh, ignore the PPP final results (but study the crosstabs). They showed RP at 5% in the 18-29 age group. They pulled the same bullshit in IA before they started releasing accurate polls. Truth is, we were probably closer to 15% BEFORE NH.

The first polls that show the NH bump will likely show a 3 or 4 man tie for 1st - depending on whether or not Santorum is still in. Hold on to your hats, it's going to be fun ride!
 
VictorB said:
Remember that Newt, Perry, and Santorum have all come out saying they are gunning for Romney. They have invested a lot of money in running negative ads towards Romney. We could start creeping up and surprise a lot of people.
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As long as they don't attack Ron, I think it may be a good strategy for him to just air positive commercials in SC. Will allow him to stand out above the negativity for a change.
 
jmdrake said:
2012-01-06-Blumenthal-scchart120106.png


I was telling people Santorum wasn't done in Iowa and we had to worry about South Carolina. We've got the material to take him down now and the time. Gingrich seemed unbeatable once too. (And while Gingrich is dropping in S.C. he needs to drop some more).
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A slight Gingrich resurgence would be favorable to us. We don't get Grinch voters, Mitt does. Let them fight it out, we need the Santorum voters.
Overall, the campaign needs to work on favorability in SC. Paul is not very well liked at the moment. Need to bring that up, and let the other guys go negative on each other.
 
I think it's time for Ron to go after Santorum hard, especially in SC. Newt's dead in the water -- once we clear santorum out it'll be down to Mitt & Us.
 
trey4sports said:
prepare yourself to be let down if you think a win in S.C. is possible. I'd be preparing for 4th/5th and be THRILLED with 3rd.
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Agreed. I'll be happy if we can avoid the coming bloodbath in SC between Gingrich, Romney and Perry. And finish with a respectable showing.
 
freejack said:
As long as they don't attack Ron, I think it may be a good strategy for him to just air positive commercials in SC. Will allow him to stand out above the negativity for a change.
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+ rep if I could. I agree 100%
 
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