2014 -- What's your district? Could a good candidate win there? My district is...

[Cowlesy]

NY-12; Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney. There is a 0% chance that a Republican could beat her.

So I am out.


Let's list some districts and figure out if we could win them.

 

[SpreadOfLiberty]

Phil Gingrey. Not half bad but also not going anywhere.

 

[Cowlesy]

My idea with this thread is to start thinking about resource optimization; given our limited resources, where can we focus, get coordinated early, and be beyond ready when the time comes.

It creeps up on us.

 

[sailingaway]

Where are there going to be empty seats?

 

[Cowlesy]

Where are there going to be empty seats?

I don't know. What's your district? Maybe we can find out.

 

[sailingaway]

I'm afraid my district isn't a possibility, although I'd be happy to support someone who wanted to try. It only changed hands Dem to Dem in the redistricting because there were two incumbants running against eachother. Berman had a 17% approval rating and won resoundingly every time, before that.

 

[ican'tvote]

TX-3
No chance. Sam Johnson will have this seat for as long as he wants it.

 

[Matt Collins]

Can't talk about it yet

 

[Rothbardian Girl]

I'm in PA-15... I don't think Dent is leaving anytime soon. I would love to see Jake Towne run again, though.

 

[angelatc]

I'm no help here:

Mike Rogers might run for Levin's seat, which would free up Michigan 8. We have a state Senator here, Joe Hune, that is at least liberty friendly. I would hope he might step up and run Rogers' seat. Call me a sell out, because he isn't 100% Ron Paul, but I would support him.

In turn, I think that Cindy Denby would move up to the State Senate, and then possibly my friend Phillip, currently the mayor of Howell, might step into her seat. He hasn't said anything, but he is a Ron Paul guy through and through.

Never know, he might decide to run for the State Senate instead. Or he might not run for anything ever again - hard to tell. But I just don't see him running for the House seat against Hune.

 

[QWDC]

Depends on if Hal Rodgers retires in KY-5. If so, I really hope Rand or Massie know someone they could both endorse, the demographics are pretty much the same as Massie's district and it would be an easy pick-up for a lifetime seat.

 

[Cowlesy]

I appreciate everyone's replies. Hope to see more from our various members.

 

[Uriah]

IA-2 Dave Loebsack(D) elected in 2006 edged out long time moderate Republican incumbent Jim Leach with 51%. In his last 3 elections he received 57%, 51%(the constitution party and libertarian party candidates got 3% of the vote), and most recently 55.5%. He is not unbeatable although the district leans Democratic.

In the 2010 election where he garnered 51% he ran against the same candidate from 2008. The candidate increased her name recognition to make a close race. Governor Branstad also came out of retirement to run in 2010 (and win IA-2) for governor again which helped Republican candidates across the state. Branstad will most likely be running again in 2014 which increases the chances of any REP candidate doing better than expected.

Currently, no one has stepped forward to run against Loebsack, Republican or otherwise.

 

[Smart3]

I wasn't going to post but here goes.

Calvert's district.

There is almost no one with the balls to challenge him, he's got total control of the local GOP. Stone might theoretically challenge him. Fiscally conservative.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

I'm in Dingle's district and it's highly democratic as one might imagine. I'll be helping Kerry stave off a primary by the local party shitheads presuming they're still in charge down the line.

 

[Uriah]

Can't talk about it yet

??

 

[jtap]

AL-1

I wouldn't think there are many places where a first time candidate would have a good shot at a house seat against an incumbent. What kind of costs would be associated with even having a chance? How do you determine what kind of winning probability you have?

 

[TheTyke]

The 2nd District in KY. It's probably not winnable against the incumbent (Guthrie), but in 2015 he might run for governor, opening the seat if he wins. A million or two would probably be enough to win, and we have some counties where we are very strong in a primary. We need to have someone ready when the opportunity arises. There are some possibilities which we can discuss them if/when it becomes relevant.

 

[Allan Bartlett]

I agree about Calvert. He is worthless and vulnerable to the right challenger. My good friend Eric Linder just got elected to the State Assembly from that area. He would be a great candidate should he chose to try and move up.

 

[jkob]

AZ-1, Ann Kirkpatrick won the seat in 2008 lost in 2010 and won the seat back in 2012. It's +5 GOP and the Libertarian candidate has had over 6% in the past 2 elections.