100% Reporting in NH

[enjerth]

I am confused at how some News agencies will round Ronmey's 39.3% into 40%. Even a grade school kid knows you round down in that case.

Well, there are a variety of rounding methods useful for different purposes.

Round up.
Round down.
Round half up.
Round half down.
Round half even.
Round half-stupid.

If I had to take an educated guess, I'd bet that, for their purposes, they're using the last type.

 

[walt]

If you don't break 10% in NH, you get no delegates.

The rule is: fraction of total vote (if over 1/10) X 12, rounded to the nearest delegate -- with the overall winner taking the extras. Huntsman got (17/100)*12=204/100, which rounds to 2 delegates. Paul got (23/100)*12=276/100, which rounds to 3 delegates. Romney takes the remaining 7.

Effectively, if santorum and gingrich had broken 10%, they'd have each gotten a delegate, and Romney would have had 5 instead of 7. I'm happy with these results, however, because the overwhelming majority of delegates are still to come, and the important thing is to cement our status as the anti-romney. Newt and Rick coming out of NH empty handed does just that.

Clarification: I was talking about the vote spread.

 

[Trigonx]

That's because they wrote the articles when it was 95% reporting and MR had 39.5%. Same with NG, who had 9.5% and they rounded it to 10%. Now he's actually 9%.

From 90%-100% reporting, i never saw Romney get past 39.4% once. I was paying attention through the night since I was up and at work.

 

[slamhead]

The only county I had questions on was Hanover county. I heard a pundit say that that was a college town and would most likely go to Ron Paul.

 

[newbitech]

Thanks for posting this. In contains a useful metric. Ron's delta is fantastic. But if you look at turn out, a bigger story emerges. Only a very small percentage of "new voters" came out in NH 2012...I think it was like 9%. Anyway, the point is that many of the same voters returned from 2008 to vote in 2012 and many of them moved to Paul. In fact, in order to give Ron a delta of over 200%, many of the voters who backed McCain had to have switched to vote for Paul. That is significant going forward since McCain won a majority of the state down the line. So while Santorum is looking to be the social conservative candidate, Paul should be looking to grab the McCain voters that are still opposed to Romney. Even with McCain's NH endorsement, Romney was held to 39.3% instead of a 45%. Think about it: McCain grabbed 37% and Romney grabbed 33% for 70% of the NH vote in 2008. That says a lot of the people's perspectives.

Can you post a Iowa delta for me?

Ya, here is Iowa, and here is USA aggregate (so far just N.H. and Iowa) with average delta.

[TABLE="width: 268"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]USA 2008
[/TD]
[TD]USA 2012
[/TD]
[TD]Delta
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]105,567
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]127,547
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20.82%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30,149
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]83,067
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]175.52%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]354,039
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]370,752
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.72%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.82%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34.40%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.52%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.41%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Iowa 2008
[/TD]
[TD]Iowa 2012
[/TD]
[TD]Delta
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30,021
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30,015
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11,841
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26,219
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121.43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]119,188
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]122,255
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.57%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.19%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24.55%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.93%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.45%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2008
[/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2012
[/TD]
[TD]Delta
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75,546
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97,532
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,308
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56,848
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]210.51%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]234,851
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]248,497
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.81%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.17%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39.25%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.80%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.88%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[newbitech]

oh and in case you were wondering, here is how that aggregate average forecast in to S.C.

Clearly there is no McCain or Fred Thompson in S.C. Santorum MIGHT be a Huckabee. So the South Carolina Delta could really break out for Ron Paul. Maybe 4-5 times. That would be amazing wouldn't it?

[TABLE="width: 204"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]S.C. 2008[/TD]
[TD]S.C. 2012[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]68,117[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82,300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16,155[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44,511[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]445,677[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]466,716[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.28%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.62%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Nihilist23]

That's because they wrote the articles when it was 95% reporting and MR had 39.5%. Same with NG, who had 9.5% and they rounded it to 10%. Now he's actually 9%.

Or it could be the fact that 40% looks much bigger than 39 psychologically to the average CNN/Fox viewer. This what these people do...

 

[Maverick]

people actually voted for cain and bachmann?

Meh, everyone has their die-hards, I suppose. I mean, think about from someone looking at us, should Paul not win the nomination: "people are actually writing in Ron Paul?" It's sort of the same thing really. Cain and Bachmann supporters still showing up for their candidate is kind of admirable, I guess.

 

[J_White]

this is good !

here is the Romney/Paul/Turnout 2008 vs 2012 breakdown.

[TABLE="width: 268"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2008[/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2012[/TD]
[TD]Delta[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75,546[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97,532[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,308[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56,848[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]210.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]234,851[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]248,497[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39.25%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.88%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]