100% Reporting in NH

blazeKing · Jan 11, 2012

Anyone know the delegate breakdown? Gingrinch and Santorum didn't get 9.5 or above..Romney didn't break 40..

All Candidates

Romney
39.3%
97,532

Paul
22.9%
56,848

Huntsman
16.9%
41,945

Gingrich
9.4%
23,411

Santorum
9.4%
23,362

Perry
0.7%
1,766

Roemer
0.4%
945

Bachmann
0.1%
349

Cain
0.1%
160

tsai3904 · Jan 11, 2012

Delegate breakdown:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/NH-R

Ronulus · Jan 11, 2012

people actually voted for cain and bachmann?

Nihilist23 · Jan 11, 2012

I'm noticing a lot of outlets reporting Romney at 40% rather than 39%. Must just be bad math on their part though, I'm sure.

newbitech · Jan 11, 2012

here is the Romney/Paul/Turnout 2008 vs 2012 breakdown.

[TABLE="width: 268"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2008[/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2012[/TD]
[TD]Delta[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75,546[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97,532[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,308[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56,848[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]210.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]234,851[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]248,497[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39.25%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.88%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Trigonx · Jan 11, 2012

I am confused at how some News agencies will round Ronmey's 39.3% into 40%. Even a grade school kid knows you round down in that case.

John F Kennedy III · Jan 11, 2012

What is the delegate total for the candidates now? Counting Iowa?

Sarge · Jan 11, 2012

Then Dr. Paul at 22.9 percent is rounded up to 30 percent. More correct then Mittens being rounded up. Mittens stays at 39.0 in the real world.

We need up 4.5 and Mittens needs down 4.5 points right now.

tremendoustie · Jan 11, 2012

Trigonx said:
I am confused at how some News agencies will round Ronmey's 39.3% into 40%. Even a grade school kid knows you round down in that case.

display(sprintf("Ron Paul: %i, Mitt Romney: %i",floor(RP_tot), ceiling(MR_tot)))

walt · Jan 11, 2012

blazeKing said:
Anyone know the delegate breakdown? Gingrinch and Santorum didn't get 9.5 or above..Romney didn't break 40..

All Candidates

Romney
39.3%
97,532

Paul
22.9%
56,848

Huntsman
16.9%
41,945

Gingrich
9.4%
23,411

Santorum
9.4%
23,362

Perry
0.7%
1,766

Roemer
0.4%
945

Bachmann
0.1%
349

Cain
0.1%
160

Did Gingrich and Santorum agree to that? LOL

tremendoustie · Jan 11, 2012

John F Kennedy III said:
What is the delegate total for the candidates now? Counting Iowa?

We don't know what the delegate results from Iowa are yet, because we don't know who will win the county and state conventions. Odds are we will significantly outperform the voting numbers. My guess is RP and Romney will get most of the delegates out of IA, with perhaps RP getting more. I don't think Santorum had the organization to actually win many delegates.

BUSHLIED · Jan 11, 2012

newbitech said:
here is the Romney/Paul/Turnout 2008 vs 2012 breakdown.

[TABLE="width: 268"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2008[/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2012[/TD]
[TD]Delta[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75,546[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97,532[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,308[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56,848[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]210.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]234,851[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]248,497[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39.25%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.88%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Thanks for posting this. In contains a useful metric. Ron's delta is fantastic. But if you look at turn out, a bigger story emerges. Only a very small percentage of "new voters" came out in NH 2012...I think it was like 9%. Anyway, the point is that many of the same voters returned from 2008 to vote in 2012 and many of them moved to Paul. In fact, in order to give Ron a delta of over 200%, many of the voters who backed McCain had to have switched to vote for Paul. That is significant going forward since McCain won a majority of the state down the line. So while Santorum is looking to be the social conservative candidate, Paul should be looking to grab the McCain voters that are still opposed to Romney. Even with McCain's NH endorsement, Romney was held to 39.3% instead of a 45%. Think about it: McCain grabbed 37% and Romney grabbed 33% for 70% of the NH vote in 2008. That says a lot of the people's perspectives.

Can you post a Iowa delta for me?

szczebrzeszyn · Jan 11, 2012

Trigonx said:
I am confused at how some News agencies will round Ronmey's 39.3% into 40%. Even a grade school kid knows you round down in that case.

That's because they wrote the articles when it was 95% reporting and MR had 39.5%. Same with NG, who had 9.5% and they rounded it to 10%. Now he's actually 9%.

MMXII · Jan 11, 2012

newbitech said:
here is the Romney/Paul/Turnout 2008 vs 2012 breakdown.

[TABLE="width: 268"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2008[/TD]
[TD]N.H. 2012[/TD]
[TD]Delta[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75,546[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97,532[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,308[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56,848[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]210.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Turnout[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]234,851[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]248,497[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39.25%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul %[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.88%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

If Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were stocks, I'd say sell Romney and buy Paul, based on that growth!!

ronpaulhemp · Jan 11, 2012

Why has there been so little coverage of Dr. Paul's 2nd place showing last night? It's like the MSM just said "Romney won, now on to South Carolina." THe biased coverage is ridiculous. They would've flipped out if someone like Huntsman or Santorum got 2nd.

ItsTime · Jan 11, 2012

AWESOME No delegates for Newt or Santorum! You need 10%, without rounding, to get delegates in NH! woot!

tremendoustie · Jan 11, 2012

walt said:
Did Gingrich and Santorum agree to that? LOL

If you don't break 10% in NH, you get no delegates.

The rule is: fraction of total vote (if over 1/10) X 12, rounded to the nearest delegate -- with the overall winner taking the extras. Huntsman got (17/100)*12=204/100, which rounds to 2 delegates. Paul got (23/100)*12=276/100, which rounds to 3 delegates. Romney takes the remaining 7.

Effectively, if santorum and gingrich had broken 10%, they'd have each gotten a delegate, and Romney would have had 5 instead of 7. I'm happy with these results, however, because the overwhelming majority of delegates are still to come, and the important thing is to cement our status as the anti-romney. Newt and Rick coming out of NH empty handed does just that.

pipewerKz · Jan 11, 2012

Side note, a friend from work just got back from lunch and e-mailed me and said he was just driving down Route 42 in New Jersey and there was Ron Paul or Audit The Fed sign on every overpass.

doctorfunk · Jan 11, 2012

I don't get how Mitt gets 7 and RP gets 3 delegates. Seems to me the math is a little off.

smtwngrl · Jan 11, 2012

John F Kennedy III said:
What is the delegate total for the candidates now? Counting Iowa?

As someone else has said, we don't really know for Iowa. But if you go by the number that greenpapers.com says they are supposed to get in each state, here are the totals:

Romney 13
Paul 9
Santorum 6
Gingrich 4
Perry 3
Huntsman 2

100% Reporting in NH

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