100,000 donors equal at least 100,000 votes?

[Meekus]

Now, I would think the act of donating money would be a higher obstacle for an individual than filling in a bubble next to Ron Paul's name.

I believe it was in the Neil Cavuto snippet that I saw this morning, that RP said he had over 100,000 people donate money to him. If we assume that all of those 100,000 would actually vote for RP, is that enough to do it?

Is there somewhere to look up and see how many votes each candidate got in the last primaries? It's my understanding that not many people vote in the primaries at all.

Of course this is not to say we should be complacent on any level. We STILL need to do all we can to drum up the most support as possible.

But, I just don't have faith in any current polls, and perhaps this would give a better idea of where RP actually stands.

 

[bbartlog]

is that enough to do it

Um, no? You might be able to win the Iowa caucus with 30,000 votes. In California, millions of people vote in the primaries.
But don't worry about that. Even if national polling is accurate and we're only at 7%, that's still millions and millions of voters. And the large number of donors does reflect a large amount of enthusiastic support.

 

[azminuteman]

No.

With that number per state, he'd place but he'll need twice that in the big states to win.

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm

 

[Meekus]

No.

With that number per state, he'd place but he'll need twice that in the big states to win.

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm

Whoa. That link just gave me an entirely new perspective on the situation.

Time for a little elbow grease!

 

[ashlux]

I believe it was in the Neil Cavuto snippet that I saw this morning, that RP said he had over 100,000 people donate money to him. If we assume that all of those 100,000 would actually vote for RP, is that enough to do it?

In 2000 Republican primaries 124,809 people voted in Oklahoma (about equal to the Democrat primaries). You'd need 62,405 votes to guarantee a win that year. George Bush secured of those 98,781 votes (close to 80%).

 

[Paulite5112007]

I think 25 million votes will win us the primary...maybe 20 million if the rest are split much

 

[MindStalker]

No, we don't need 20 million. 20 million in TOTAL voted in the republican primary in 2000.

Right now with the multiple man split we need between 20% to place and 35% to win.

Thats between 4 and 7 million. If you take the 55 million Registered republicans (totally ignoring independents switching) and take the worse case senerio of 5% support) thats 2.75 million Republican Ron Paul supporters. Assuming 100% of them vote we still won't win. So we need greater than 5% support (we probably have close to 10% of that 55 million in reality). A LOT of independent, plus high turnout.

 

[1913_to_2008]

100,000 donors equals at least 2 million voters. 5%

 

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

Even 1% in the "official polls" equals 3 million supporters nationwide. It's higher than that.

 

[wstrucke]

Even 1% in the "official polls" equals 3 million supporters nationwide. It's higher than that.

That would be 1% of the US population. When they say 1% they mean they are estimating that 1% of registered repulicans support him. While I don't believe that is accurate, I would point to those who posted above you for more accurate statistics.

 

[Paulitician]

I wonder how many have donated from the early states...

 

[Perry]

Now, I would think the act of donating money would be a higher obstacle for an individual than filling in a bubble next to Ron Paul's name.

I believe it was in the Neil Cavuto snippet that I saw this morning, that RP said he had over 100,000 people donate money to him. If we assume that all of those 100,000 would actually vote for RP, is that enough to do it?

Is there somewhere to look up and see how many votes each candidate got in the last primaries? It's my understanding that not many people vote in the primaries at all.

Of course this is not to say we should be complacent on any level. We STILL need to do all we can to drum up the most support as possible.

But, I just don't have faith in any current polls, and perhaps this would give a better idea of where RP actually stands.

Historically I would say there is 1000 votes for every donation.