10 Reasons to remain optimistic!

I agree that the Revolution goes far beyond Ron Paul and this ONE election. However, Ron Paul would be too old to run in another 4 years. I think we need to find the Ron Paul "successor" who can continue the fight.
 
It's great to post something cheery and pat each other on the back, and agree, the Revolution MUST continue.... but in 2012... You can search for past posts by me - and you'll see they are all in reference to getting the word out. I'm no quiter, and I'm not just a forum poster/BSer, I've been hard at work for a long time. Here was my post to my local meetup group.


=============================================
First, along the lines of Anthony's disclaimer - this isn't a flame,
it's a mere reality check. Most of you won't like, others will flame,
some might listen, and not that I'm anyone special, so delete if you
want. We all, or at least most us, did our part and made an honest
effort - I don't think we could have, or should have, done anything
differently.

First, since I'm an IT guy, let's look at some numbers since that is
what I'm good at:

#1) Re: Canvass vs Volume distribution:

Anthony states 800 flyers = 22 votes - or 2.75% of the vote in
Eatontown. I'm not sure where Anthony found the number of votes in his
town, I'd like to see those numbers in Little Silver/Shrewsbury/Long
Branch/Howell. Anyhow...

800 flyers distributed by one person is ABOUT 7 hours of time give or
take 2-4hours. - but let's say 8 hours as a ballpark figure.
Anthony suggests he should have canvassed (knocked door to door)
instead, which I propose would take AT LEAST 10-15 minutes per house
that actually wants to talk to you - figure you can hit ABOUT 4 houses
in one hour including time to talk to people, time to get people to
answer their door and listen, walk between houses, etc. Had Anthony
gone this route - he would have MAYBE hit all of 30-35 houses in 8
hours. Even at a 100% conversion to Ron Paul, he's not far off from
his 22 votes with the volume method. Even if my estimate of 8 hours is
off and it is 20 hours, then MAYBE Anthony hits 60-70 houses - again,
even at 100% conversion, not going to be election changing results and
certainly not all 60-70 people will actually vote for Ron Paul - right
back to the 22 number, IMO AND I'm sure not all 22 votes were from
these flyers - I'm sure some already knew of/about Ron Paul.

And I'm not just talking out of my ass here - I also spent many many
hours and many many dollars trying to get the word out. Over the past
6 months, I covered the entire northern section of Long Branch with my
own printed Ron Paul flyers - TWICE. After I found the meetup group -
I hit about 500 of the same people that seemed like good voters again.
I helped in Oceanport with Anthony, Tiffany, and Amanda and then hit
about 300 more houses on my own in two other outings to Oceanport. I
helped get about 1200 flyers out in Shrewsbury. I helped get about 300
flyers out in Little Silver. I got about 300 out to the LB train
station, another about 300 at the Monmouth Mall, about 1-200 more at
random shopping centers in the Eatontown/Long Branch/West Long Branch
areas. I didn't waste my time - but I certainly was no match for
McCain/Romney/Clinton/Obama on the front page of the papers,
magazines, billboards every day. No match for hours and hours of daily
tv coverage, radio coverage, etc. I even spent about an hour and half
from 5 to about 6:30 standing at a busy intersection in Long Branch
last night with my huge sign, waving at everyone passing by - I got
maybe 10 people to honk - at least half of said honkers just looked to
be drunken Mexicans or Brazilians who are probably illegals and honk
at everyone, or wouldn't vote for Paul anyhow. I saw all of about 20
people going into the firehouse to vote - not that I judge people
based on skin color - but let's just say that I watched Obama get
about 20 votes. I also had one group of feminazis stop thier little
red car in front of me to wave their hillary sign at me - as if I
would somehow go vote for her - their efforts quite misdirected - but
somehow she won, go figure.

So, first bold statement I'll make, canvassing is a waste of time and
too much work - not many of us, self-included, know and understand
enough of the details of Ron Paul's policies and opinion to explain
them one on one and even if we could, how accurate will we be? What
might we say or suggest that is a turnoff, or just poorly worded.
While handing out flyers, one old fella wanted to know Ron Paul's
stand on some specific NLRA (?) issue, then on some highway issue,
then on some union issue, then on some pension/labor issue. Certainly
I, and none of us, could possible answer (or find answers) to these
specific questions in a one on one canvass. Secondly, I highly doubt
anyone in Jersey is going to welcome you into their home with your Ron
Paul flyers and DVD and sit down and shoot the shit with you about
politics. I've lived in this state long enough to know that we all,
self-included, are truely assholes and none of us will give a door to
door anything the time of day, let alone talk politics with some
stranger.
My *OPINION* - volume of confirmed information is the best path we can
take. We just need more volume, more information, more often, more
specific targeting. People are just uninformed. As much as I hate
them, the APP was dead on with their 4% prediction - we had 5%. That
means that they are probably accurate on 76% of Americans want out of
Iraq - which means the 83% of people who voted McCain/Romney are just
uninformed because if they are part of the 76% - they voted for
something they don't want - because they don't know those two dummies
are for a 100 year long war in Iraq.

#2) This meeting group was the only Ron Paul voters....
Here comes my second bold statement - we, the 128 of us on the
Monmouth Meetup group - were the only people who voted for Ron Paul.
There were 2,216 votes for Ron Paul. there are 128 people on this
mailing list/meetup group. That means for each 1 of us - there were 16
other votes. I can tell you - my 16 other people in this county that
voted Dr. Paul were my immediate family and friends who I had to beg
and plead with to vote Ron Paul - and I'll be honest - at least 10 of
them voted for Ron Paul as a goof - as in - fine - cause it won't make
a difference, enough of people will vote for McCain that he'll win -
but this at least shuts you up so you don't bother me. My dad never
votes for R or D, he always votes 3rd party (even without research)
and he even voted for Ron Paul yesterday. If each of us, all 128 of
us - only converted out immediate family and a few friends - then that
indeed is the 2,000 votes we came up with. That said, be honest- if
there are 128 of us on this list - there are probably 128 more people
who are Ron Paul supporters that don't want to bother with the mailing
list - and suddenly is 8 voters to 1 of us - seems like some of us
couldn't even get our friends/family to vote with us.


With those numbers into perspective, I've said it before and I'll say
it again - "we" claim that we are taking on BigMedia - we're not -
just face it - they have us beat by a long shot - 83% apparently. In
fact, we're somehow losing to Huckabee - I saw *1* huckabee sign in my
walking of Long Branch - that sign came down after the 3rd time I put
a Ron Paul flyer on the guy's door. Maybe he converted, maybe someone
just stole his sign, who knows. Huckass gets little more support from
the media than we do - yet he's beating us - and yes - he is beating
us - don't be confused or delusional.

Taking on BigMedia - educating 83% of the population is not easy - it
can't be done in 8 hours. It can't be done in 20 hours, it can't be
done in 40 hours. It requires weekly, if not daily, in your face
education. 33% or more won't just vote for Ron Paul because he is a
3rd party on the ballot. If we're (un)lucky, Bloomberg will hop into
the race and it'll be a 4 way battle - again, be honest, 50% of the
population won't vote 3rd party/independent so we can't say 25% will
vote for Paul - we can say MAYBE 50% of the 33% will... still nowhere
near good enough.

Getting delegates to the convention, overrunning the convention with
Ron Paul supporters, etc sounds nice - but so does winning the $102
mega millions jackpot. Face it, we're not going to get 1000+ ron paul
supporters are delegates to the convention. We're not going to overrun
it and take over, we're not going to sneak Paul on the Republican
ticket. The new Republican party doesn't want Ron Paul and the people
are too ill-informed to want him, or at least knowingly want him.

In my opinion, the ONLY possible solution is a brute force, take on
BigMedia, information (but kind of a smear) campaign. Ron Paul
Revolution on top - The issue (Real ID, the wars, the economy, etc)
and why every one of the "major" candidates just has no answer, no
credentials and no ability to fix the problem. I wouldn't even bother
saying that Ron Paul can fix said problem - just give a URL that
offers more information and a subtle banner/ad for Ron Paul from
there. People know, or think, a politician is a politician is a
politician and just because they get a flyer saying some politician is
different or better - they won't believe it - and in fact they'll wait
for the "news" to tell them. But if you start hitting home, scaring
people with the facts, and making them do some research on their own -
you MIGHT, be able to convince a few people to think 3rd party.

I'll say this - at this point - I'm prepared for the news "First Woman
President" or "First Black President" - because we just don't stand a
chance against BigMedia - unless THOUSANDS, even tens of thousands,
or Ron Paul supporters nationwide act in a concerted effort to inform
people that Republicans suck and democrats are worse and the only
solution is to vote 3rd party.. It's not 800 people in eatontown, 1500
in shrewsbury, 3000 in long branch, etc that need to be reached. If
our flyers are effective for 2.75% of people, and we need 400,000
votes to win - It's 14,545,454 people in new jersey we need to reach -
problem obviously - there aren't that many people in New Jersey! In
other words, we'd have to reach EVERY single voters, every single
week, just as "BigMedia" does. Its an effort that every single one of
us has to be on board to support. Good weather is coming soon - I did
the math in my last email and we need to reach about 3 million
households. We would need to get 3,000,000 of the same newsletters -
and to answer the dumb email someone sent me - I don't literally mean
a newsletter - I mean a single page ad - we don't need a "think tank"
like you suggest, we need a single page with good and accurate
information. Include all of the links/URLs I see sent back and forth
on this list in a small box somewhere on said flyer. If 4 person teams
chip in to get 1000 of these printed and distributed, we'd need 30,000
of these 4 person teams to act in a concerted effort to get these
printed and distributed each week. We'd be reaching 6,000,000 with the
information, at least giving us a shot - at 2.75% - that'd be 165,000
votes, but we can't do this once and move on to the next town - we
need to repeatedly hit the same towns over and over and over again and
get from 2.75% to 5%, or 10%. They need to see "Ron Paul" as often as
they see any other candidate. And I'm not contradicting myself - I
said leave Ron Paul off of the flyer - aside from Ron Paul Revolution
- they'll catch on, or at least visit one of the websites/URLs we give
to see more. If they don't - we didn't stand a chance with that person
anyhow. Of course - this leads to a second problem - if I say we need
30,000 of these 4 person teams, then we need 120,000 people to help.
We don't have that many Ron Paul supporters in this whole state. WE
barely have 20,000 at this point. Even if we could get all 20,000 to
help with this effort - 20,000 makes 5,000 teams of 4. 5,000 teams *
1,000 flyers each is only 500,0000 households. At 2.75% conversion -
we're looking at maybe 13,750 households converted - about 2 voters
per household - only MAYBE another 20,000 votes - we'd be rocking all
of MAYBE 40-50,000 votes despite these efforts.

I'll be honest - I'll stay in the fight as long as Ron Paul wans to be
in the fight and other people want to stay in the fight - but the
numbers are very much stacked against us and there really is no way to
win as a Republican and even less of a chance to win as an
independent/3rd party - especially if someone like Bloomberg, who can
outspend Romney and Clinton combined, gets into the race.

Thanks for trying - I suggest someone sets up a mailing list/meet up
group for those of us who seem to lean libertarian and/or want real
change (not change like the others promise) and maybe 4 years from
now, if this country still exists as the United States of America, and
we're still a democracy, and we're still allowed to talk politics on
the internet and exercise free speech, free press, etc - maybe then we
can try again. But be honest, at this point, we not only don't stand a
chance of winning anything - we don't even stand a chance of standing
a chance of getting even a noteworthy showing.

Unless there is an honest concerted effort along with a plan from the
top (the campaign) - I think I'm ready to call it quits, get back on
track with my workout schedule and just fade into the daily non-sense
that makes this country tick. Spending more time and money on a losing
effort, and in fact and impossible (look at the numbers) battle is
kind of pointless. In fact, it is kind of like the US staying in Iraq
- we lose a little more ground each day, the media shoves us off to
the back pages, or leaves out a mention all together, the majority
forgets about us.

Keep me posted on any future efforts - I'll be on the mailing list as
long as it exists - and I'll be willing to help - but my opinion is
that it's time to call it quits. Regroup, rethink and plan ahead for 4
years from now... or two years from now when the US collapses like the
USSR did....
=============================================

Kinda of pessimistic and disheartening, I know - but again, ***WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO TAKING ON BIG MEDIA***

If you want to take on BigMedia - you need a writer - a few of them, and good ones. You need (cheap and fast) printers. You need trucker drivers to deliver said paper to local distribution centers - you need a local delivery fella to get that paper door to door. You need the convenience store clerk to offer the paper and a smile with your morning coffee. You need the TV and radio to show the face, and tell the story and message. Clearly, you need people, thousands and thousands of people. And we can all sit here and post and agree with each other that we're doing so well, but the numbers just don't show it. We're kind of acting the Amish here - living in our own little world - ignoring everything going on around us - and we're just not being honest with our selves if we think emailing the guys at CNN/Fox/etc nasty emails or making thousands of phone calls is "taking on BigMedia". You want to take on BigMedia? ALL OF US need to become our media. All of us need to get the information printed locally (because we don't have a central printing plant or truck drivers). All of us need to chip in and pay for it (because we won't be finding any advertisers). All of us need to go door to door and deliver the "news" (because who knows your town better than you). And all of us need to coordinate (because it'd be pointless for 2 of us to hand the same "news" to the same person on the same day).

You can be optimistic - and you can keep doing your part to keep the revolution moving - but don't be delusional and think we're winning. Big Media has been around for a long time and if we want to take them on, we need twice as many people as they have, and we need to work twice as hard as they do.
 
My desire to be free, truly free, will motivate my actions for the rest of my life. It doesn't matter if I find freedom through Ron Paul, or through any other candidate in particular. It doesn't matter if I have to leave this country to find it - I will always resist tyranny. Ron Paul has simply given me a clearer understanding of my struggle. Hopefully this message of ours can permeate to all people - humanity will need it in the years ahead.

~TW
 
FBodyJim,

I like that your post has actual numbers in it. We need more of those for 2012. However, it all wasn't in vain. Ron Paul barely registered on the national polls nine months ago. It is much harder to increase a voting percentage from 2% to 6% than from 20% to 30%. We need to be all ready for 2012. Thank you for your work.
 
Back
Top