1 on 1, low turnout (our best odds)

[ggeezz]

When we had that in Virginia we did remarkably well and that was in state that heavily favored Romney. VA turnout was over 3%. Yesterday everywhere was under 2% turnout (except PA which was quite high) and NY was under 1%.

Assuming turnout is even worse in NC (which favors Paul) and Paul would do better in NC than VA anyway, then shouldn't we be able to do better than the 60/40 from VA?

Of course, there are things working against us. Romney will certainly get a boost from being the "presumptive nominee" and I suspect Gingrich and Santorum will still appear on the ballot. (Does anyone know for sure about that?)

Anyone want to speculate on the results from NC?

 

[mnewcomb]

That only works if other names are not on the ballot... it doesn't seem to matter if they have dropped out of the race or not. Santorum has been out for weeks, yet he beat Paul in Pennsylvania!

The real question is, have the ballots been set in all the remaining states? Will there be any states where it is Romney vs. Paul?

 

[Emperius]

"Our Best Odds" are with the Libertarian Party.

Ballot Access in 50 states.

 

[Tiso0770]

How does the Libertarian Party view Ron Paul?. Is the majority behind Paul. I'll vote Libertarian with or without Ron and i'm a Republican, anything to keep Mitt from getting my vote.

 

[MrGoose]

To be honest I'm willing to vote for Obama to give the liberty movement a chance in 4 years rather than 8.

 

[kathy88]

No. Ballots are set, I believe. So the people who have no clue about politics can go cast their votes for Rick and Newt.

 

[carterm]

"Our Best Odds" are with the Libertarian Party.

Ballot Access in 50 states.

i think they have access in 27 states.

 

[seawolf]

All three Primaries on May 8th are OPEN.

With the success in Rhode Island (open primary) yesterday, (6.1% in 2008 to 23.9% in 2012 and 4 delegates) why on earth is the Campaign not having an End of Month Push Money Bomb?

 

[JamesButabi]

All three Primaries on May 8th are OPEN.

With the success in Rhode Island (open primary) yesterday, (6.1% in 2008 to 23.9% in 2012 and 4 delegates) why on earth is the Campaign not having an End of Month Push Money Bomb?

I'm convinced we would have won this state if the campaign had gotten involved more heavily. At least they decided to do a last minute rally.

 

[RPit]

low turnout = low for us too. This has been clear again and again.

The best thing we as grassroots now can do is try to get Ron on every single radio program in the upcoming states... Have him talk about the foreign policy and israel in a hawkish tone and also rip Romney a big one as well as Obama. Its quite evident that now the MSM will ignore us, so we need to get the hawkish sounding Ron out there ourselves, and local tv and radio is the only way to do so.

 

[Keith and stuff]

I'm convinced we would have won this state if the campaign had gotten involved more heavily.

I agree that there are hardly any Republicans in RI and it was a semi-open primary state. I think the keys would have been completely changing what Ron Paul says. If Ron Paul would have had a dozen events all over the state and talked about just the issues where the majority of people agree with him (medical marijuana, ending foreign aid to China, preserve federal welfare for seniors, preserve federal welfare for college students, preserve federal welfare for veterans, closing 100 of the 700 or whatever bases around the world, end the war in Iraq...), printed up flyers with those issues, mailed the flyers to every voter in the state, hand delivered the flyers to every independent voter in the state and so on, there is a great chance he could have won.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Assuming turnout is even worse in NC (which favors Paul) and Paul would do better in NC than VA anyway, then shouldn't we be able to do better than the 60/40 from VA?

An open primary is a big deal, especially in a state with a lot of liberal leaning Democrats. My guess is VA has a higher percentage than NC. Additionally, Some Gingrich supporters were encouraging people in VA to vote for Paul. Additionally, some people were trying to sabotage Romney in VA (as they were in VT.) The closer it gets to the convention, the less likely there will be sabotage voters. The media and Romney have declared him the presumed nominee. Even the RNC did that.

Now that the race isn't competitive at all to most people, turnout should drop. Will that help Paul, maybe. We have to keep in mind that just because people are out of the race, doesn't mean they won't get votes. Gingrich spent quite a bit of time campaigning in NC and could get quite a few votes. Maybe more than Paul.

 

[seawolf]

Low turnout will continue to help Ron, but he has to actively Campaign for the May 8th Open Primaries in those States. Indiana, West Virginia and North Carolina are fairly close geographically.

If the Campaign had a four day, End of the Month Push Money Bomb, starting Friday, set an achievable goal of raising $500,000 and use just half for TV/Radio Advertising that would be huge.

Remember in Rhode Island just $40,000 was spend on TV and Paul received 23.9% almost 4 times what he got in 2008!!!

A real no-brainer if the Campaign is still taking suggestions!!!

 

[ggeezz]

Strategy-wise it looks like Paul is focusing on TX. But I think TX is too late, even if he wins. My hope was that a good showing in NC would change the narrative. But if Newt and Rick are still on the ballot then I think NC is a long shot.

 

[asurfaholic]

I try to avoid speculation, but nc will likely be a 60% romney, 15-20% paul, rest other state.

I am encouraged because I have never seen a sign for any republican other than paul, but at the same time, I have talked to alot of people out here... it just doesn't look good. I hope for the best though, 30-40% would be beautiful. Would show that this state is not ok with the status quo.