# Lifestyles & Discussion > Bitcoin / Cryptocurrencies >  How High do you Think Bitcoin Prices will Rise in a Year?

## Sentinelrv

The price of bitcoins right now is about $80-$95. Let's say it's a year later, March 28th 2014. How much do you think the price will have risen by that time......or is it just much too unpredictable due to the fact it's a brand new type of currency and because of the banking crisis?

I'm thinking about going all out. I have $5,000 I might invest and the idea behind bitcoins is intriguing to me, plus the way they're performing right now. I know it's a huge risk. I really need to do some more research before I get involved. I was just wondering what people here who are going all in think about where the price will be in a years time.

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## muh_roads

Just a few months ago people were projecting $100 by January 1st 2014.  Those calculations have thus been modified and most don't seem to have a clue anymore.  The banking world is in chaos right now and Cyprus was just the beginning.

The key thing to take away from the most recent two dips (from $80 to $60 and now $95 to $75) is that the profit takers have all been supplanted by new buyers and everything bounced right back.  So take that for what it is worth if you are looking for signs of strength.

The estimate so far is that 100,000 users are involved.  Pretty amazing that just 100K could move the price the way it has.  I have no idea how many more will start becoming users as well.  The estimate is that 1 billion people use the internet.  If just 20% of those become BTC curious and buy at least 1 by the end of 2014, that is 200 million people sharing just 13 million coins that will be available at that point in time.  But it may be less than that...

They also say that up to 7 million coins have been lost due to people formatting their hard drives and just not giving a $#@! back when BTC wasn't worth anything...so there is even less to go around if that is true.

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## muh_roads

And for the record, I'm not selling.  I'm not sure when I will.   Maybe if FinCEN starts beating its chest more about exchanges...but even then I know BTC will live on despite a panic sell-off.

I got in @ $6, I could buy myself a nice new big gas guzzler if I wanted.  But I'm not into cars.  And the honest truth is I am not really interested in personal possessions in general.  I would like to see everyone here profit.  I despise the fiat lords and my past posts from years ago when I only came here for Ron Paul news should prove I don't pump/dump anything.

I simply hate the banks and would love to see them get pissed off and realize there is very little they can do to stop this...other than maybe shake people out with scare tactics.

I own more silver (ounces) than BTC.  I will never sell physical, only paper and what is held at online bullion "custodians".  I never joined the silver pumping rally in 2011 like most because I knew our masters were going to short the hell out of it.

I really don't care what people think my intentions are.  BTC has taken on a life of its own much bigger than anything I could ever move.  I am just happy to see others happy.

Now I'm gonna go watch a Battlefield 4 trailer...

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## Jordan

Over $9,000. Clealry the rally has gone hyperbolic and it will sustain itself indefinitely. Furthermore there is no reason why it wouldn't have extraordinary intrinsic value given that it is the new currency of the new, post-central planning world.

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## Indy Vidual

> Over $9,000. Clealry the rally has gone hyperbolic and it will sustain itself indefinitely...


Yes, a new type of sustainable growth through uncharted waters.
No similarities at all to the dot com bubble.

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## Jordan

> Yes, a new type of sustainable growth through uncharted waters.
> No similarities at all to the dot com bubble.


Agree entirely. This is different.

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## IDefendThePlatform

I'm very bullish on bitcoin on a 3-10 year time frame because I think we are still in the extremely early adoption phase, like Paladin said. 

A lot of stuff could go wrong (hard fork in blockchain) and the price could go to zero, but I think it's more likely to continue to grow quickly in price as more people start to use it.

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## abacabb

> The price of bitcoins right now is about $80-$95. Let's say it's a year later, March 28th 2014. How much do you think the price will have risen by that time......or is it just much too unpredictable due to the fact it's a brand new type of currency and because of the banking crisis?
> 
> I'm thinking about going all out. I have $5,000 I might invest and the idea behind bitcoins is intriguing to me, plus the way they're performing right now. I know it's a huge risk. I really need to do some more research before I get involved. I was just wondering what people here who are going all in think about where the price will be in a years time.


By next year, a bitcoint should be trading at about $150,000 each.

My advice?

Invest every last penny you own. It can only go up.

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## anaconda

> By next year, a bitcoint should be trading at about $150,000 each.


That would be awesome. But what is your analysis (To reach that in one year, the price would need to rise nearly $3000 per week)?

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## hazek

My advice?

Use Bitcoin as much as you can in your daily exchanging of value among your friends and family and try to find services you need that take bitcoins. Own a few or don't own any, it doesn't really matter. If you have some of your funds ready on an exchange to buy at any time you can completely bypass the price fluctuations. 

However if you'd like to speculate and gain some value for the fact that you are promoting Bitcoin use, own a few, but I wouldn't recommend more than 10% of your entire wealth. And this is pretty much how I'm set up. Full disclosure: I didn't even buy my first bitcoin until September last year, a full year and half after I learned about it.

Also if you are going to buy any, right now this recent surge in price is really hard to be just based on sound growth in users and I would caution you to be aware of sudden price changes at any moment with a fair chance of suffering significant loses.




I now wonder if anyone can take the above and accuse me of trying to pump a ponzi or a bubble since I'm such a cheerleader for this awesome technology..

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## abacabb

> That would be awesome. But what is your analysis (To reach that in one year, the price would need to rise nearly $3000 per week)?


I'm presuming mass-hysteria and total insanity.

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## Sentinelrv

Could you imagine most Ron Paul supporters becoming millionaires through bitcoin and being able to fund Rand's entire primary and general election campaign and any other future liberty endeavor? That would be awesome! And all because Ron Paul taught us about economics and sound money.

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## abacabb

> Could you imagine most Ron Paul supporters becoming millionaires through bitcoin and being able to fund Rand's entire primary and general election campaign and any other future liberty endeavor? That would be awesome! And all because Ron Paul taught us about economics and sound money.


I'm sure Ron Paul was talking about tangible money though, and if all his supporters were broke, those money bombs wouldn't fare so well.

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## Indy Vidual

Yes




> Could you imagine most Ron Paul supporters becoming millionaires through bitcoin and being able to fund Rand's entire primary and general election campaign and any other future liberty endeavor?....


Only if more people had paid attention 2 years ago when ~5 of us were talking about it. People starting now will need to have deep pockets to continue buying when the bubble bursts and prices crash.

I CAN imagine many Ron Paul supporters becoming millionaires through these ideas: Who Wants To Be THE Billionaire?

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## dannno

> That would be awesome. But what is your analysis (To reach that in one year, the price would need to rise nearly $3000 per week)?


He's trolling, he was talking about selling $#@!coins in the last thread.

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## dannno

> I'm sure Ron Paul was talking about tangible money though, and if all his supporters were broke, those money bombs wouldn't fare so well.


No, Ron Paul promotes the ability for people to use any currency that isn't a fiat currency.

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## abacabb

> He's trolling, he was talking about selling $#@!coins in the last thread.


To be fair, the bitcoin crowd is hysterical and sounds like every other crowd (Goldbugs, pre-housing bubble keynesians, etcetera.)

The fact that my sarcasm wasn't immediately obvious (and you would even have to read another thread to know where I stand) speaks volumes.

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## dannno

> To be fair, the bitcoin crowd is hysterical and sounds like every other crowd (Goldbugs, pre-housing bubble keynesians, etcetera.)
> 
> *The fact that my sarcasm wasn't immediately obvious (and you would even have to read another thread to know where I stand) speaks volumes.*


Not really, your sarcasm aligns with others' predictions.

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## Sentinelrv

> Only if more people had paid attention 2 years ago when ~5 of us were talking about it. People starting now will need to have deep pockets to continue buying when the bubble bursts and prices crash.


When they do, do you think prices will crash below where they are currently? I'm just trying to figure out what would be the best time to get in. I don't want to buy now if the crash might be coming soon. I also don't want to wait too long to buy and then it crashes to a price far above where it's at now.

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## anaconda

> I'm presuming mass-hysteria and total insanity.


But there are some very bright people that still feel the currency crisis is about 10 years away.

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## anaconda

> People starting now will need to have deep pockets to continue buying when the bubble bursts and prices crash.


What prices are you referring to? Bitcoin prices? Or, the CPI?

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## brandon

I would say the risk/reward is about the same as buying any small cap stock. I wouldn't put more than like 3-4% of your wealth into it.

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## abacabb

> Not really, your sarcasm aligns with others' predictions.


Hence, the insanity of it all.

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## anaconda

> Hence, the insanity of it all.


So, do you expect a complete collapse to zero and universal abandonment of Bitcoin? Or, will it be a somewhat utilized alternate currency with a market value of some positive amount? If so, what would you expect to see? $1.00? $5.00? $250.00? Other? Just curious what you think. Your tone makes me think you would predict a complete collapse, or an equilibrium of, perhaps, a few pennies. I appreciate your input. I am thinking of buying some.

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## dannno

> Hence, the insanity of it all.


That's subjective.

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## dannno

> So, do you expect a complete collapse to zero and universal abandonment of Bitcoin? Or, will it be a somewhat utilized alternate currency with a market value of some positive amount? If so, what would you expect to see? $1.00? $5.00? $250.00? Other? Just curious what you think. Your tone makes me think you would predict a complete collapse, or an equilibrium of, perhaps, a few pennies. I appreciate your input. I am thinking of buying some.


You could lose everything, I'll be the first to tell you. You probably won't, but you could. It could also shoot the moon and a bitcoin could be worth hundreds of thousands or more. Or anything in the middle. It depends on how much pressure is placed on the system and where.

The upward potential is what makes it worth putting at least something behind it, imo.

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## FrankRep

Speculation is causing a Bitcoin bubble.

Have fun guys.

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## dannno

> Speculation is causing a Bitcoin bubble.
> 
> Have fun guys.


So you believe in the strength of fiat currencies?

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## anaconda

So, you Bitcoin experts, are there/will there be many, many Bitcoin clones being created as an alternative to fiat currencies? How come all I hear about is Bitcoin? Shouldn't there be hundreds of clones already? I don't understand this..

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## dannno

> So, you Bitcoin experts, are there/will there be many, many Bitcoin clones being created as an alternative to fiat currencies? How come all I hear about is Bitcoin? Shouldn't there be hundreds of clones already? I don't understand this..


You can have a monopoly in a free market if they are providing the best product available at the cheapest price. It wouldn't be as efficient to be trading bitcoins with icoins or whatever other ones they had. 

If somebody improves on bitcoin and releases it then you'd probably start to see some competition.

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## Danan

> So you believe in the strength of fiat currencies?


The bitcoin market is relatively small, though. A relatively small number of investors can cause massive price volatility. Also, is there any (concieveable) way to short bitcoins now or in the near future?

It's very easy to create a speculative attack on currencies, especially less important ones. Yet these currencies are almost guaranteed to not fall down to zero as long as they are legal tender in their respective countries. People need to pay taxes denominated in it, etc. Also, central banks can react in an unexpected manner, causing speculators to lose big time.

Bitcoins on the other hand have no lower boundary. All their value comes from projected future exchange value. If all or at least most people believe that value to be lower tomorrow than today, than this could set in motion a very dangerous downward spiral, imho.

I'd use it as a short-term medium of exchange for online transactions. I'm not convinced yet that it's a good store of value.

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## Zippyjuan

> Over $9,000. Clealry the rally has gone hyperbolic and it will sustain itself indefinitely. Furthermore there is no reason why it wouldn't have extraordinary intrinsic value given that it is the new currency of the new, post-central planning world.


Lol.  This time is always different.  Gold is going to $2000, $3000, $5000.  Heard that one just a couple of years ago.  Numerous threads here about getting into gold and making a killing.  Sputtered before it got to $2,000 an ounce. Been moving down slowly ever since. Gold threads disasppeared.  Now there seems to be a big surge in bitcoin threads and people talking not about buying them to use to avoid using dollars but trying to speculate how much money they can make buying and selling them. Not a good sign. 

 You know when people are making bets on saying it will hit crazy numbers that it is going into bubble formation. How long a bubble lasts is hard to say- some can last a long time before they burst.  Others can be very short.  The decline can also be short or long.  In the housing bubble, the decline was pretty swift.  When gold hit bubble in 1980, the decline lasted over 20 years.

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## newbitech

if you can exchange $100 today for 1 bitcoin, and in a year from now exchange that 1 bitcoin for $1000, has the value of a bitcoin increased 10x's it's value? OR has the value of $1 decreased 10x's its value?

As long as people insist on judging bitcoins by its dollar exchange value, then the bitcoin is only going to reflect the value of the exchange currency.  When people start talking about accepting bitcoins in exchanges for goods and services, that is when the value of the bitcoin will be set. 

For instance, if I charge 1 bit coin for a haircut, would you pay it?   Doubt it.  Cause you could get 5 haircuts for what one bitcoin cost. 

So, where are the exchanges for fractional bitcoins?  

From what I understand, bitcoins can be divided down to 8 decimal places.  

So who is trading say .1 bitcoins?  .01?  etc etc?

See what I'm saying?

I'd buy .1 bitcoins right now for $10 if I knew where the market was.

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## Zippyjuan

> if you can exchange $100 today for 1 bitcoin, and in a year from now exchange that 1 bitcoin for $1000, has the value of a bitcoin increased 10x's it's value? OR has the value of $1 decreased 10x's its value?


"When gold fell from over $800 an ounce in 1980 to about $250 an ounce by 2003, was it the price of gold falling or was the value of the dollar rising?" 

Could be the dollar. Could be other things.

People THOUGHT an ounce of gold was worth $800 but they changed their minds.

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## Indy Vidual

> When they do, do you think prices will crash below where they are currently? ...





> So, do you expect a complete collapse to zero and universal abandonment of Bitcoin? Or, will it be a somewhat utilized alternate currency with a market value of some positive amount? If so, what would you expect to see? $1.00? $5.00?...


They are not going away unless the Internet disappears, but Bitcoins could be pushed deep underground in most _free countries._

I would guess $3 to $7 is the lowest it will ever go (worst case), the last major bottom was $1.99 after a high of ~$31.90
One single exchange has the major volume of trading, but several others are established and could step-up if/when the USA 'freedom fighters' take down MtGox, which recently moved USA funds into USA banks. If multiple exchanges in several countries get shut down... ...oops.




> What prices are you referring to? Bitcoin prices? Or, the CPI?


Bitcoin prices




> So, you Bitcoin experts, are there/will there be many, many Bitcoin clones being created as an alternative to fiat currencies? How come all I hear about is Bitcoin? Shouldn't there be hundreds of clones already? I don't understand this..


There are at least ten clones but none is a real threat since they didn't make major improvements and Bitcoin was first.




> Lol.  This time is always different....


This time it really is different.    




> ...
> The upward potential is what makes it worth putting at least something behind it, imo.


True even at today's prices, especially if you can afford to buy more on corrections.

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## Indy Vidual

> ...
> I now wonder if anyone can take the above and accuse me of trying to pump a ponzi or a bubble since I'm such a cheerleader for this awesome technology..


You are a pioneer who really believes in the project, +rep for sticking with it during all the quiet times.





> ...
> I'd buy .1 bitcoins right now for $10 if I knew where the market was.


Send Kludge a PM he might help you out?

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## muh_roads

> Yes, a new type of sustainable growth through uncharted waters.
> No similarities at all to the dot com bubble.


The dot com bubble happened because people were literally investing in ideas with nothing substantial to back them up.  When people finally realized that free web services weren't going to make money, they bailed.

Bitcoin has already proven its service.  Wealth can be transferred digitally without asking for the nanny state's permission to make a wire transfer.

EDIT: I know you know this.  I just wanted to comment because I've seen people try to make the .com comparison before.

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## Indy Vidual

> ...
> Bitcoin has already proven its service. Wealth can be transferred digitally without asking for the nanny state's permission to make a wire transfer...


Yes, Bitcoin has real value.  

Virtually everything (both positive and negative) is already reflected in the current prices. 
Bulls know _the whole world_ will need to escape from paper money and the upside is outrageous.Bears know that having a dominant centralized exchange (also married at _wallet level_ to the Bitcoin Foundation) moving all the USA funds into USA banks is a fat target for TPTB.
It's going to be an exciting story...

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## newbitech

so we know that only 21,000,000 bit coins are ever going to be mined at most.

if that represents the total money supply I would suspect that the price of 90 per coin is cheap.  Even if bitcoin only came to represent just 1% of the total competing currency.  

according to the st. louis fed, the current USD monetary base is right at 3,000,000,000,000 * 3 trillion.

If bitcoin replaced 1% of say the USD monetary base, at bitcoins full distribution  21,000,000 btc would be = 30,000,000,000 USD 30 billion.  
Making each bitcoin worth $1,428.

Of course we know that bitcoin is a global currency, so we are not going to get full distribution of btc to represent 1% of usd base.  IOW, those coins are competing globally.

Now, we know that bitcoin is at around the half way point in its total possible distribution, and we see its total USD market cap at just over 1 billion USD.    If bitcoin is going to replace just 1% of all USD currency, at this point in its distribution the MINIMUM it should be trading at is $700.  So, we can extrapolate that percentage out to see what the real value is in the US market (with the global competition x value).

It traded as high as $92 USD.   Which is about 13% of the price at 1% USD coverage.  

So right now bitcoin represents at most .13% of USD replacement currency. 

It seems to be totally undervalued at the 1% replacement target.  Especially considering it has truly become a 1 world currency almost overnight.  

It cracks me up tho that it's STILL totally and 100% dependent on centralized global governance.

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## newbitech

question tho, what's stopping ben bernanke from printing up a billion bucks and buy out all the coins right now?

 i think the weakness of this currency is the fact that not only do we know it's distribution is finite, we can pretty much predict exactly when its production will stop.  

So that's uncharted territory for a currency as far as I know.

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## Indy Vidual

> ...
> It cracks me up tho that it's STILL totally and 100% dependent on centralized global governance.


The software and P2P machines are 0%* dependent on _centralized global governance_, except...Individual miners rushed into pools to increase their chances of making new coins, so there exists an oligarchy of influential pool operators, and...The open source project/foundation accepted a HUGE donation from the largest exchange, and shares 2 board members.
Investors have at least 7 to 10 (or more) established exchanges to choose from, but _the real action_ is at only one exchange.

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## Petar

> question tho, what's stopping ben bernanke from printing up a billion bucks and buy out all the coins right now?
> 
>  i think the weakness of this currency is the fact that not only do we know it's distribution is finite, we can pretty much predict exactly when its production will stop.  
> 
> So that's uncharted territory for a currency as far as I know.


If Bernanke pumps $1 billion into BTC, then I will make at least $100k I would think.

The media attention would be incredible and very counter-productive for him.

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## newbitech

> The software and P2P machines are 0%* dependent on _centralized global governance_, except...
> Individual miners rushed into pools to increase their chances of making new coins, so there exists an oligarchy of influential pool operators, and...The open source project/foundation accepted a HUGE donation from the largest exchange, and shares 2 board members.
> Investors have at least 7 to 10 (or more) established exchanges to choose from, but _the real action_ is at only one exchange.


ahhh, but the network is 100% centralized global governance.  with out the network, p2p software doesn't exist.  bitcoin is 100% reliant on this network because without that broadcast reach, it loses its proof of work model that replaces the 3rd party trust.

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## Petar

> ahhh, but the network is 100% centralized global governance.  with out the network, p2p software doesn't exist.  bitcoin is 100% reliant on this network because without that broadcast reach, it loses its proof of work model that replaces the 3rd party trust.


Bitcoin is making the bet that the USA will not turn into China and destroy it anytime soon.

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## newbitech

> If Bernanke pumps $1 billion into BTC, then I will make at least $100k I would think.
> 
> The media attention would be incredible and very counter-productive for him.


right, but so what?  Bitcoin would be destroyed I would think.  And where would the media focus it's attention?  I'm sure the central bank is not going to announce that it bought out the nascent anonymous currency market.

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## Petar

> right, but so what?  Bitcoin would be destroyed I would think.  And where would the media focus it's attention?  I'm sure the central bank is not going to announce that it bought out the nascent anonymous currency market.


Rising its price to the moon and gaining incredible media attention is hardly "destruction" for BTC. 

TBTB are between a rock and a hard place here.

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## newbitech

> Bitcoin is making the bet that the USA will not turn into China and destroy it anytime soon.


you mean on the network level?  That may be true, but destroying bitcoin will take far less than overtly shutting down their domain pointers.  The central bank could just buy out the entire block at the going rate.  Probably at 10x's the going rate or 10 billion.

I would think that one thing that would be stopping the fed from doing that is that people would realize the currency was non viable after someone owns more than 50% of it.  

Then the people would simply start over with a different currency.  say bitcoin 2.0.  Merchants could still decide to accept the old bit coin, or they could decide to only accept the new bitcoin.  

See where that ends up?  It's still currency inflation if the new currency can simply be exchanged for the old currency.  Eventually, people will have to realize that no we can't have currency competition until fiat is destroyed.

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## FrankRep

> so we know that only 21,000,000 bit coins are ever going to be mined at most.


What would happen if a Billionaire decided to play a joke and buy every bitcoin in existence and hoard them for fun? Bitcoin would cease functioning, right?

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## newbitech

> Rising its price to the moon and gaining incredible media attention is hardly "destruction" for BTC. 
> 
> TBTB are between a rock and a hard place here.


well considering that there is only 11 million bitcoins and a cap at 21 million, it doesn't matter how much media attention it gets, if the central bank accumulates all of the bitcoins, it game over for bitcoins, since the whole point of the central bank accumulating them all is to never use them to compete with their currency.

Lets say I had 10 billion to play with.  I go buy up as many bitcoins as I can for 100 bucks.  eventually the price is gonna move.  it can move up to $900 bucks and I'd still be able to buy every single bit coin ever  mined.  

even if I was only able to buy 5 million bit coins with my 10 billion dollars, I control 25% of the currency.  That's $500 a bit coin, 5x's it current trade.  The fed can destroy this currency the same way it's destroying it's own currency.

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## newbitech

> What would happen if a Billionaire decided to play a joke and buy every bitcoin in existence and hoard them for fun? Bitcoin would cease functioning, right?



that's what im thinking.  But not a billionaire, the central bank acting politically, and not a joke but a covert means to stamp out competition.   What's stopping the central bank from doing that?

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## Petar

Not every Bitcoin is available for sale all the time. Plus, new ones are continuously being created. I just think that the money cartels have to be incredibly delicate as to how they go about trying to manipulate this thing. I don't believe that quickly dumping a billion dollars into it is a legitimate option.

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## Indy Vidual

> Rising its price to the moon and gaining incredible media attention is hardly "destruction" for BTC. 
> 
> TBTB are between a rock and a hard place here.


Agreed




> ...The central bank could just buy out the entire block at the going rate.  Probably at 10x's the going rate or 10 billion.
> 
> I would think that one thing that would be stopping the fed from doing that is that people would realize the currency was non viable after someone owns more than 50% of it..
> ...
> See where that ends up? It's still currency inflation if the new currency can simply be exchanged for the old currency....


Nice try  
Why not pump the price way up and then cause a crash of over 93.5% ?
During the 2011 major exchange hack/price crash there was a mysterious account with over 500,000 Bitcoins just sitting there. 
If you want a good reason to still not trust the market, that would be a place to start, imo.

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## newbitech

> Not every Bitcoin is available for sale all the time. Plus, new ones are continuously being created. I just think that the money cartels have to be incredibly delicate as to how they go about trying to manipulate this thing. I don't believe that quickly dumping a billion dollars into it is a legitimate option.


there is only going to ever be 21 million bit coins.  I wouldn't need to buy them all at once.   I would just need to accumulate them all.  Yes with 10 billion USD I could buy all the bit coins at 10xs the current price right now.

If you had 10,000 bitcoins, would you not sell them for 9 million?  How about just sell 5000 of them for 4.5 million?  then hang on to the rest of them forever until someone else comes along and offers you more than 4.5 million.  

what is the point of owning bitcoins if all you are ever going to use them for is to become a millionaire one day?  Until people start accepting bit coins for real goods and real services as a replacement for whatever they are using now, you'll never see 900 per coin, at most for USD replacement at 1% and full bit coin distribution against the USD is about 1500 bucks per. and if USD only gets distribute say 10% of bitcoin full distribution you will get 15k per.  You still have at least 2 years for full bitcoin distribution and right now i would guess we are much less than 10% USD share of bitcoin.

So you need a market shift if you bought with USD, you need at least 2 years, and you need wider coverage than the paltry .13% its getting now.  People are going to accept bitcoins for services.  They are going to accept bit pennys and bit 1000ths.  Those transactions aren't even created yet I don't think.

Tell me where I can buy fractions of a bit coin.  Tell me what retailer accepts fractions of a bit coin.  So if the price is bid up to $900 USD a coin, you'll see a lot of accumulation occurring, probably a clear majority accumulation.

That will keep the miners going.  but the big problem is, once the bitcoin mine runs dry, it's over. done.  no chance of getting more bitcoins into circulation, none.

bottom line, what prevents the bitcoin market from being cornered.  answer, nothing.

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## Petar

Ok, so if some stupid billionaires want to drive the price of bitcoins up to the moon, then that's fine by me. My only decision will be how much do I sell, VS how much do I hold on to. And if they think they can stop bitcoin by just buying them all and sitting on them then what is their plan for when someone just creates a replacement in that case? There is no easy way for the money cartels to make this whole thing just disappear. I'm gonna say that we have crossed the Rubicon here.

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## newbitech

> Agreed
> 
> 
> 
> Nice try  
> Why not pump the price way up and then cause a crash of over 93.5% ?
> During the 2011 major exchange hack/price crash there was a mysterious account with over 500,000 Bitcoins just sitting there. 
> If you want a good reason to still not trust the market, that would be a place to start, imo.


cause to cause a crash would me dumping the coins back into the trade market.  That has the opposite effect.  It would be better to accumulate as many bitcoins as 10 billion can get you right now, then throw the hard drive with the transaction key into a volcano.  People who thought their coins were worth more than 900 each will hold on to them forever and never use them to buy anything, thus totally destroying bitcoin as a currency.  

it's not that i don't trust the market.  what i trust is that when i tell someone i am going to do a job for them, i do it.  and whether i agree to get paid in bitcoins, frns, pieces of metal, or toenail clippings, my price is my price.  frns is what I am used to because that is how I was indoctrinated.  but i have learned that currency is only worth what it is traded for, right now.

people want to gamble with bitcoins which is great.  i'd love to buy .1 bit coin for 10 bucks.  should be a good deal for someone who bought 1 of them for 1 buck.  he make 10x's his money back with only 1/10th of his currency.

It's a complete speculative play.  It's like buying dinars imo.  But I dont mind owning a piece of the novelty while helping some desperate people from Europe convert their currency to USD without their government knowing.

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## newbitech

> Ok, so if some stupid billionaires want to drive the price of bitcoins up to the moon, then that's fine by me. My only decision will be how much do I sell, VS how much do I hold on to. And if they think they can stop bitcoin by just buying them all and sitting on them then what is their plan for when someone just creates a replacement in that case? There is no easy way for the money cartels to make this whole thing just disappear. I'm gonna say that we have crossed the Rubicon here.


well again, i don't think their are any stupid billionaires for starters, but im talking the central bank with whom the bitcoin competes against.  what stops them from printing up 10 billion to buy up all the bitcoins that will ever be produced?  Answer, nothing stops them from doing so.

At that point, the bitcoin will have served it's purpose and made quite a few smart people FRN rich, or whatever fiat they bought it with rich.  

I thought the whole idea of bitcoin was an alternative currency to buy stuff with or to accept in exchange for services.  Seems to me the only market for these bit coins is the fiat currency exchange market and the speculation of the pairings with bitcoin.

That's fine and all, some people will get rich some, some people will lose it all.  It will serve its purpose, but it's a finite currency.  

I don't think there is a problem with that at all to be honest.  I think no one can possibly speculate with any confidence since to my knowledge there hasn't ever been a currency or a store of value that is limited.  Gold and silver for instance are still being mined.  It is not possible for someone to own ALL of the gold and silver without all owning ALL of the earth where gold and silver comes from.  At that point, if it ever did happen, gold and silver would be as completely worthless as bitcoins will be if someone ever owned all of it.

and cornering the market doesn't mean 100% control.

So yes what about another competitor?  Well, were is it?  Wouldn't another competitor right now cause the value of one limited bit coin to be reduced?  Yeah it would.  So its the same effect.  As long as Bitcoin or whatever other currency in competition with fiat, ACCEPTS fiat as a trade, then the value of that currency is tied to fiat and becomes diluted right along with that fiat.  

So the way to stifle that competition if you want to keep fiat around is to trade as much fiat as you can for those other currencies and hold on to those other currencies, forever.  

Sort of how governments do gold and silver.  Bitcoins just become part of the money supply.  

Yes, we have crossed the Rubicon, we've built a bridge over the damn thing and commerce travels across it daily.  But what is happening with bitcoin is grounded in fiat, except it's not directly government that we are believing in, rather its the technology.  I don't know what you'd call that, but for sake of argument, call the faith in bitcoins as a medium of exchange a lack of faith in the government, or anti-fiat.  In order for this anti-fiat to exist, people have to have faith in something.  Well, that's the faith they have in this little currency generating software.  

So, when a currency is created that doesn't require my faith in something, then I'd say the holy grail is found.  Personally, I believe in the idea of my currency being my word.  That is, I am an honest enough person that if you have something I want I will find something you want in exchange.  You want frns?  fine, i'll get it.  you want bitcoins? fine, i'll get them.  Heres the rub, you need to be an honest enough person to see equity in the deal and not try to profit more than I will profit in the exchange.  

If you motive is in fact profit, then you should look for the profit for both of us.  Currency is not profit.

----------


## Indy Vidual

The last bubble was much more fun for me, as a fan, and I've never owned very many.
This time the mentality (group-think) is just too familiar too soon.




> ...
> what is the point of owning bitcoins if all you are ever going to use them for is to become a millionaire one day? ...


People who love the project are more likely to spend Bitcoins and even give some away.
Hoarding coins probably harms the economy since they are (relatively) hard to get in exchange for good and services (for example, the biggest auction site is a buyers market, since people rush to sell their stuff to try to get some BTC)


ps. While you are _passionately certain_ that BTC is doomed, thousands of people are eagerly awaiting their exchange deposits to clear so they can push the price higher by grabbing some Bitcoins *before the price goes up another 150%*.

----------


## newbitech

> The last bubble was much more fun for me, as a fan, and I've never owned very many.
> This time the mentality (group-think) is just too familiar too soon.
> 
> 
> 
> People who love the project are more likely to spend Bitcoins and even give some away.
> Hoarding coins probably harms the economy since they are (relatively) hard to get in exchange for good and services (for example, the biggest auction site is a buyers market, since people rush to sell their stuff to try to get some BTC)
> 
> 
> ps. While you are _passionately certain_ that BTC is doomed, thousands of people are eagerly awaiting their exchange deposits to clear so they can push the price higher by grabbing some Bitcoins *before the price goes up another 150%*.



im not just passionately certain it's doomed.  it was coded that way. what goes up....

----------


## Petar

Well, I welcome anyone spending billions in an attempt to corner/destroy bitcoin, whether that fool is called a "billionaire" or a "central-bank". 

Either way, the price of bitcoin gets driven to the moon, and no one in the world can ever question bitcoin's significance ever again. 

If a replacement needs to be created in that case, then a replacement will be created. 

Right now we don't need one because we already have bitcoin.

----------


## anaconda

> I'd buy .1 bitcoins right now for $10 if I knew where the market was.


You can do that now. Just put in ten dollars worth. You will be sold a fraction of a bit coin.

----------


## Indy Vidual

> Well, I welcome anyone spending billions in an attempt to corner/destroy bitcoin, whether that fool is a "billionaire" or a "central-bank"...


Sounds exciting, but how would they even get that much money into the exchange?

----------


## anaconda

> It cracks me up tho that it's STILL totally and 100% dependent on centralized global governance.


I thought the consensus was that Bitcoin was essentially 0% dependent on centralized global governance?

----------


## newbitech

> Well, I welcome anyone spending billions in an attempt to corner/destroy bitcoin, whether that fool is called a "billionaire" or a "central-bank". 
> 
> Either way, the price of bitcoin gets driven to the moon, and no one in the world can ever question bitcoin's significance ever again. 
> 
> If a replacement needs to be created in that case, then a replacement will be created. 
> 
> Right now we don't need one because we already have bitcoin.


right, well i would consider accepting bitcoin for my service but it will be substantially higher than what you'd pay in FRN's, sad to say.  For instance, i'd probably cut your grass for 10 bitcoins, and I'd expect a coke and a clean towels when I was done.  

Also, if someone wanted to trade one of those bitcoin mining chips, I'd buy it for 1 bitcoin off you and give you 10% of the bitcoins it generates for life.  

any takers?  I'd run the technical side of it and use my power.  let me know.

----------


## newbitech

> I thought the consensus was that Bitcoin was essentially 0% dependent on centralized global governance?


nah, ISP's and the root name servers are centrally controlled.  p2p runs over computer networks.  these networks at best are run by highly regulated and most likely fascist corporations.  the root name servers are run all by once remove "private" company's that bow to the UN.   

sure the p2p layer is decentralized and the software seems to take privacy seriously enough to be able to hide from big brother, BUT... it all depends on name resolution and packet transport layers.

----------


## Indy Vidual

> ...
> any takers?  I'd run the technical side of it and use my power.  let me know.


Now you want some of _the doomed coins._

----------


## newbitech

> Now you want some of _the doomed coins._


yeah if there is profit in it, why not?  I already looked at what it takes to mine these things, but from what I can tell the NSA is probably already got that market cornered 

I mean really, people were hashing with cpu in 2010.  The guy that bought the 2 billion dollar pizza?  cpu.  then graphics cards started getting used, now someone had the bright idea to make a chip to do this.  

but the question is, how many bitcoins will it cost to buy one of those boards that will generate 12 bitcoins an hour?  I think he was asking 1500 USD.  But, I think 1 bitcoin should cover it.  Since bitcoins are going the moon.  If someone wanted to go out and buy that rig, I'd pay 1 bitcoin.  Then, I'd give them 10% of whatever the thing produced in bitcoins every day.  

I think its an equitable deal.  hell, you'd only need to cash in like 15 bitcoins to do it, and you'd get those back in like 10 days or so from my calculations.  then from then on out, you wouldn't have to buy at the fiat inflated prices.  you could just let my rig do the work of mining for you.  then maybe you could start actually buying things with the coins and get them into circulation instead of waiting for the big banks to step in and pay you off.  

theres an idea1!

----------


## newbitech

just saying, if I had 1500 USD i'd do it.  And if I only had 15 bitcoin, I'd sell those $#@!ers quick to get the 1500 USD to do it, plus 90 bucks for shipping.  I have no doubt at all that with this hashing chip they are coming with, I'd easily be able to generate back those 15 bit coins plus at the very least 10 a day.  No idea how long that would last, but i'd roll over those profits 20 or 30 times into new gear to set up.  Ultimately, those miners turn in to bankers tho so the more I rolled over into faster and faster gear to build that block chain, the better off i'd be.  Then i'd start denominating my bit coins and come up with a better name than bitcent lol

----------


## newbitech

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewr...es/134665.html




> The most of circulating assets on our business Current Account are blocked.Over 700k of expropriated money will be used to repay country's debt. Probably we will get back about 20% of this amount in 6-7 years.
> I'm not Russian oligarch, but just European medium size IT business. Thousands of other companies around Cyprus have the same situation.
> The business is definitely ruined, all Cypriot workers to be fired.
> 
> We are moving to small Caribbean country where authorities have more respect to people's assets.* Also we are thinking about using Bitcoin to pay wages and for payments between our partners.*

----------


## Indy Vidual

> ...That may be true, but destroying bitcoin will take far less...
> ...
> See where that ends up?...





> right, but so what?  Bitcoin would be destroyed I would think...





> ...The fed can destroy this currency the same way it's destroying it's own currency.


Watch as the _amazing Bitcoin Mind Control vibes_ transform this individual...



> just saying, if I had 1500 USD i'd do it....








> ....to get the 1500 USD to do it, plus 90 bucks for shipping....


BFL labs?
Be careful, they are 8 months late shipping the first orders.
The only current chips are coming out of China and the units cost 75 BTC!  (I think that is close to exactly correct)

----------


## anaconda

Can someone tell me how the difficulty of the mining algorithm affects the value of bitcoins, if at all? In other words, if the algorithm had been designed to be twice as difficult, what effect would this have had on the system? What if it was twice as easy? Etc.

----------


## Indy Vidual

> Can someone tell me how the difficulty of the mining algorithm affects the value of bitcoins, if at all? In other words, if the algorithm had been designed to be twice as difficult, what effect would this have had on the system? What if it was twice as easy? Etc.


The value of bitcoins affects the difficulty of the mining algorithm.*
To be more exact: When Bitcoins cost a third of a penny there was very few miners and the difficulty of the mining algorithm was very low. 
*More miners = Stronger network = More difficulty

----------


## newbitech

lol, no, im not planning on losing my ass with bitcoins.  just point out how easy it would be if my hands were on the levers of the fiat printing press to destroy it.  And what would be there to stop me from doing so?  nothing. 

value and difficulty not related 

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Protocol_rules




> The difficulty changes every 2016 blocks. This choice is designed to occur approximately every two weeks.2 weeks / 10 minutes = 14 * 24 * 60 / 10 = 2016Once 2016 blocks has been reached we loop back until we hit the 2016th block before the current one. We find the difference in time between the current block and that one. This difference (called the actual timespan) is limited in bounds between [2 weeks/4, 2 weeks*4].
> Then we get the last target for this old 2 week window and multiply it by the ratio of the actual timespan / the target timespan (2 weeks in secs).
> new target = old target * time for 2016 blocks / 2 weeks.If the old set of blocks completed too fast then the target is lowered (difficulty goes up) ensuring it takes longer to solve these new blocks... and vice versa. This way the difficulty oscillates around the ideal of 2 weeks (and 10 mins per block).





> The block creation fee changes at every 210000 blocks. The block creation fee is a function of block height on the chain (genesis=0), and is calculated using 64 bit integer operations (in satoshis) as:(50 * 100000000) >> (height / 210000)
> The block creation fee started with 50 BTC, has fallen to 25 BTC at block 210000, will fall to 12.5 BTC at block 420000, and finally down to 0 satoshi with block 6930000. The block creation fee of all coinbase transactions will sum up to 2099999997690000 satoshis, practically 21million BTC.

----------


## newbitech

> Watch as the _amazing Bitcoin Mind Control vibes_ transform this individual...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BFL labs?
> Be careful, they are 8 months late shipping the first orders.
> The only current chips are coming out of China and the units cost 75 BTC!  (I think that is close to exactly correct)


what is interesting is I have a buddy who has his custom fabbed xbox mod chips built in china.  So, i was thinking just to write the chip software, have him prototype it, and then get his china contacts to mass produce it.  Then sell them for like 31.4159265359 satoshi

----------


## anaconda

> The value of bitcoins affects the difficulty of the mining algorithm.*
> To be more exact: When Bitcoins cost a third of a penny there was very few miners and the difficulty of the mining algorithm was very low. 
> *More miners = Stronger network = More difficulty


Thanks. Your post #72 above shed some light for me.

----------


## Indy Vidual

You are welcome.

----------


## Ignostic?

> there is only going to ever be 21 million bit coins.  I wouldn't need to buy them all at once.   I would just need to accumulate them all.  Yes with 10 billion USD I could buy all the bit coins at 10xs the current price right now.
> 
> If you had 10,000 bitcoins, would you not sell them for 9 million?  How about just sell 5000 of them for 4.5 million?  then hang on to the rest of them forever until someone else comes along and offers you more than 4.5 million.  
> 
> what is the point of owning bitcoins if all you are ever going to use them for is to become a millionaire one day?  Until people start accepting bit coins for real goods and real services as a replacement for whatever they are using now, you'll never see 900 per coin, at most for USD replacement at 1% and full bit coin distribution against the USD is about 1500 bucks per. and if USD only gets distribute say 10% of bitcoin full distribution you will get 15k per.  You still have at least 2 years for full bitcoin distribution and right now i would guess we are much less than 10% USD share of bitcoin.
> 
> So you need a market shift if you bought with USD, you need at least 2 years, and you need wider coverage than the paltry .13% its getting now.  People are going to accept bitcoins for services.  They are going to accept bit pennys and bit 1000ths.  Those transactions aren't even created yet I don't think.
> 
> Tell me where I can buy fractions of a bit coin.  Tell me what retailer accepts fractions of a bit coin.  So if the price is bid up to $900 USD a coin, you'll see a lot of accumulation occurring, probably a clear majority accumulation.
> ...


Any attempts to buy up that many bitcoins would cause the price to rise far more than 10X its current value.  There are less than 60,000 bitcoins currently for sale under $1000 at MtGox.  Yes, if the price goes up a lot, then there will be more people that want to sell, but there will also be more people that want to buy and anybody trying to accumulate large amounts would need to compete with those people.  At what rate do you really believe that somebody could accumulate bitcoins given an infinite amount of dollars?  I'd be skeptical that it is possible to accumulate even a million bitcoins, let alone all of them.

Why would I sell even half of my bitcoins at $1000 each if I thought they would hit $2000 in a few more months?  I have no intention of ever selling my bitcoins for dollars, no matter how much they are worth.  If they get to a price where I have a million dollars worth, then I might decide that I want to buy a nice car.  If I can't buy that car directly with bitcoins, then I will use dollars as a middle man, but that is not the same as selling them for dollars.  I don't care if the bitcoins that I sell to buy a car might be worth double in a few months.  I want to enjoy the car now.  We're all on borrowed time.  I'd rather drive around in a nice car now than be a billionaire when I'm 80 years old.  It doesn't matter how fast bitcoin appreciates, people are still going to spend them on things they want because they want to enjoy those things in the now.  You can't enjoy dollars in the now, though.  

I think you greatly overestimate how many people would be willing to sell bitcoins for any dollar amount unless it is to immediately buy something they want that they can't get with bitcoins.  I would be willing to bet that even most of the day traders are in it for the long haul.  You can believe in the idea of bitcoin and still want to play it on the swings.  

What motivation would somebody with 10 thousand bitcoins have to sell them for 10 million dollars?  They would have to believe that the price isn't going to continue to go up.  If you keep buying more and more, then people are going to get more and more confident that Bitcoin has a real future as a world currency, so they are going to be less and less willing to trade them for a currency that is trending out.  I don't expect to ever be a millionaire from Bitcoin.  I hope to have the purchasing power of over a million dollars, though.  The goal isn't "Hey, one day I'm gonna sell these bitcoins for a million dollars".  The goal is "Hey, one day I'm gonna buy me a Tesla S for 1 bitcoin".  

And there will still be over 5 million unfound bitcoins in 4 years and still over 1 million in 12 years.  

There are valid reasons to believe that the government could pose a threat to Bitcoin in the future, but I really don't think market manipulation is one of those.  

How about this?  If you write a four line $#@!ty or not $#@!ty poem and post a bitcoin address, then I'll send you 1 bit penny (0.01BTC).  That is the current minimum you can buy at a time on MtGox.  Take care of it, though.  It could be your retirement fund.

----------


## Mordan

@newbitech

you are maybe right about the fiat-btc relationship. 

But as Ignostic explained really well, people might decide it is not worth it to swap back to fiat and just use BTC to buy other stuff. 

But I agree that for the foreseeable future, all goods priced in BTCs will always be priced relative to Fiat/BTC exchange rates. Anyone disagree on that?

----------


## newbitech

> Any attempts to buy up that many bitcoins would cause the price to rise far more than 10X its current value.  There are less than 60,000 bitcoins currently for sale under $1000 at MtGox.  Yes, if the price goes up a lot, then there will be more people that want to sell, but there will also be more people that want to buy and anybody trying to accumulate large amounts would need to compete with those people.  At what rate do you really believe that somebody could accumulate bitcoins given an infinite amount of dollars?  I'd be skeptical that it is possible to accumulate even a million bitcoins, let alone all of them.
> 
> Why would I sell even half of my bitcoins at $1000 each if I thought they would hit $2000 in a few more months?  I have no intention of ever selling my bitcoins for dollars, no matter how much they are worth.  If they get to a price where I have a million dollars worth, then I might decide that I want to buy a nice car.  If I can't buy that car directly with bitcoins, then I will use dollars as a middle man, but that is not the same as selling them for dollars.  I don't care if the bitcoins that I sell to buy a car might be worth double in a few months.  I want to enjoy the car now.  We're all on borrowed time.  I'd rather drive around in a nice car now than be a billionaire when I'm 80 years old.  It doesn't matter how fast bitcoin appreciates, people are still going to spend them on things they want because they want to enjoy those things in the now.  You can't enjoy dollars in the now, though.  
> 
> I think you greatly overestimate how many people would be willing to sell bitcoins for any dollar amount unless it is to immediately buy something they want that they can't get with bitcoins.  I would be willing to bet that even most of the day traders are in it for the long haul.  You can believe in the idea of bitcoin and still want to play it on the swings.  
> 
> What motivation would somebody with 10 thousand bitcoins have to sell them for 10 million dollars?  They would have to believe that the price isn't going to continue to go up.  If you keep buying more and more, then people are going to get more and more confident that Bitcoin has a real future as a world currency, so they are going to be less and less willing to trade them for a currency that is trending out.  I don't expect to ever be a millionaire from Bitcoin.  I hope to have the purchasing power of over a million dollars, though.  The goal isn't "Hey, one day I'm gonna sell these bitcoins for a million dollars".  The goal is "Hey, one day I'm gonna buy me a Tesla S for 1 bitcoin".  
> 
> And there will still be over 5 million unfound bitcoins in 4 years and still over 1 million in 12 years.  
> ...


I plan on reading the rest of your post, but I just wanted to say real quick that I tried to research the Mt. Gox while I was looking at my pricing scenario, but I think the exchange was under a massive DDOS from what I was reading.  So its definitely getting some attention and has some natural enemies out there.  Anyways, let me go check it out real quick and see if I can get an answer to my question.

But, yeah less than 60k for sale at my bargin offer price of $900 each?  That would definitely cripple my 10 billion dollar attempt to buy the market.  Then again, I would point out that you'd be looking at a very thinly traded market.  I suspect I could coax a fair few amount more than 60k bits out of the ether with my 10 bill frn.

----------


## newbitech

> Any attempts to buy up that many bitcoins would cause the price to rise far more than 10X its current value.  There are less than 60,000 bitcoins currently for sale under $1000 at MtGox.  Yes, if the price goes up a lot, then there will be more people that want to sell, but there will also be more people that want to buy and anybody trying to accumulate large amounts would need to compete with those people.  At what rate do you really believe that somebody could accumulate bitcoins given an infinite amount of dollars?  I'd be skeptical that it is possible to accumulate even a million bitcoins, let alone all of them.
> 
> Why would I sell even half of my bitcoins at $1000 each if I thought they would hit $2000 in a few more months?  I have no intention of ever selling my bitcoins for dollars, no matter how much they are worth.  If they get to a price where I have a million dollars worth, then I might decide that I want to buy a nice car.  If I can't buy that car directly with bitcoins, then I will use dollars as a middle man, but that is not the same as selling them for dollars.  I don't care if the bitcoins that I sell to buy a car might be worth double in a few months.  I want to enjoy the car now.  We're all on borrowed time.  I'd rather drive around in a nice car now than be a billionaire when I'm 80 years old.  It doesn't matter how fast bitcoin appreciates, people are still going to spend them on things they want because they want to enjoy those things in the now.  You can't enjoy dollars in the now, though.  
> 
> I think you greatly overestimate how many people would be willing to sell bitcoins for any dollar amount unless it is to immediately buy something they want that they can't get with bitcoins.  I would be willing to bet that even most of the day traders are in it for the long haul.  You can believe in the idea of bitcoin and still want to play it on the swings.  
> 
> What motivation would somebody with 10 thousand bitcoins have to sell them for 10 million dollars?  They would have to believe that the price isn't going to continue to go up.  If you keep buying more and more, then people are going to get more and more confident that Bitcoin has a real future as a world currency, so they are going to be less and less willing to trade them for a currency that is trending out.  I don't expect to ever be a millionaire from Bitcoin.  I hope to have the purchasing power of over a million dollars, though.  The goal isn't "Hey, one day I'm gonna sell these bitcoins for a million dollars".  The goal is "Hey, one day I'm gonna buy me a Tesla S for 1 bitcoin".  
> 
> And there will still be over 5 million unfound bitcoins in 4 years and still over 1 million in 12 years.  
> ...



Funny money, milk and honey, I wish that I were rich.
Spread the hash, its crypto-cash! I don't know what to do!
Such a buzz, what's all the fuss?  Write a poem for you?
Well here it is, I hope you like, now where's my bitcoins bitch!

149VwNpctqtdAqKsCc1y4T473c77uqEAVv

----------


## evilfunnystuff

> but I think the exchange was under a massive DDOS from what I was reading.


Not sure if it was that like some were saying, or maybe due to integration with coinlab in some way. The partnership is supposed to take effect from the 29th to the 1rst. (mtgox references the 29th coinlab references the 1rst)

It was drivin me nuts tryin to buy btc in the 70's when it dropped, with the site up and down, I managed to get er done though.  lol

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> That would be awesome. But what is your analysis (To reach that in one year, the price would need to rise nearly $3000 per week)?


He's probably thinking of an exponential curve, but still... that's extremely high.

----------


## newbitech

so i've download and installed Bitcoin-qt (its synching), i've installed MultiBit, and I've installed Electrum.  As soon as qt is synched I will have armory installed as well. 

Out of the 3 so far, MutliBit was definitely the most intuitive to set up.  Electrum seemed easy, but it wanted me to pick some server somewhere, and it presented me with 5 receiving accounts, and 3 change accounts.  I kinda get what that is all about, but unlike MultiBit, Electrum did not give me the prompt to save my wallet to some location.  

I think ultimately I am gonna run qt since I will be looking to explore cracking the block hashes and discovering some of my own coin (maybe).  So once it's synced up, I'll be all up in armory.

Not sure were I can see the Level 2 trade information from Mt. Gox. Do i need to verify my identity to get access to that data?  Not sure I want to send my personal info to these people!!!

Anyways, i'd like to know where I can see the bid ask for Mt. Gox.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> if you can exchange $100 today for 1 bitcoin, and in a year from now exchange that 1 bitcoin for $1000, has the value of a bitcoin increased 10x's it's value? OR has the value of $1 decreased 10x's its value?
> 
> As long as people insist on judging bitcoins by its dollar exchange value, then the bitcoin is only going to reflect the value of the exchange currency.  When people start talking about accepting bitcoins in exchanges for goods and services, that is when the value of the bitcoin will be set. 
> 
> For instance, if I charge 1 bit coin for a haircut, would you pay it?   Doubt it.  Cause you could get 5 haircuts for what one bitcoin cost. 
> 
> So, where are the exchanges for fractional bitcoins?  
> 
> From what I understand, bitcoins can be divided down to 8 decimal places.  
> ...


It may be a worthwhile investment.  My dad has been holding thousands of dollars worth of iraqi dinar for years.  He could probably sell them back at any point if the value does not go up because it is basically zero at this point anyway.  Bitcoin seems a bit more risky because it definitely has room to fall.  I might buy a couple and keep them for a few years.  If nothing happens, oh well.  That's basically the attitude that needs to be taken no matter how much you believe something is going to go crazy because you simply can't predict it.

----------


## evilfunnystuff

On Topic


It is hard for me to see more than $200 by years end, my guess is its gonna flirt with $100 for quite some time, and its hard for me to see it below $75-$80 again. 

But with the major milestones happening who knows... Major sites adopting btc (wordpress reddit), increased liquidity to americans (mtgox coinlab partnership), nations stealing money from bank accounts for bailouts (Cyprus), Being viewed as legitimate (FinCen recently regulating institutions that sell btc for US dollars), more stuff available to purchase for btc (PM's at Kitco spot price)

...but who knows I could be way off either way.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> "When gold fell from over $800 an ounce in 1980 to about $250 an ounce by 2003, was it the price of gold falling or was the value of the dollar rising?" 
> 
> Could be the dollar. Could be other things.
> 
> People THOUGHT an ounce of gold was worth $800 but they changed their minds.


If silver was $42/oz a few years ago, then has the strength of the dollar increased?  I don't think so.  I'd say by getting into silver now, while it's at ~$28/oz you're making a pretty good bet that you'll make a nice profit in the near future.  So, if you time it right, it's not impossible to actually accrue value from investing in silver.  I think silver prices are still artificially low at this point, and I expect it to move past where it was in 2010/11.

----------


## Snowball

I predict Bitcoin will fall over 50% after the Feds shut down the Silk Road, 
then the ECB and Federal Reserve will both successfully pressure world 
governments to totally shut down Bitcoin - resulting in seizure of domains 
and a 100% loss for anyone left holding the bag.

----------


## amonasro

Didn't the Feds say they were shutting down Silk Road last year?

----------


## Carson

All the way?

----------


## Indy Vidual

> If silver was $42/oz a few years ago, then has the strength of the dollar increased?  I don't think so.  I'd say by getting into silver now, while it's at ~$28/oz you're making a pretty good bet that you'll make a nice profit in the near future.  So, if you time it right, it's not impossible to actually accrue value from investing in silver.  I think silver prices are still artificially low at this point, and I expect it to move past where it was in 2010/11.


Yes, exactly one year from today which will rise a greater % BTC or silver?

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> Yes, exactly one year from today which will rise a greater % BTC or silver?


It's impossible to say.

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## Carson

> *If silver was $42/oz a few years ago, then has the strength of the dollar increased?*  I don't think so.  I'd say by getting into silver now, while it's at ~$28/oz you're making a pretty good bet that you'll make a nice profit in the near future.  So, if you time it right, it's not impossible to actually accrue value from investing in silver.  I think silver prices are still artificially low at this point, and I expect it to move past where it was in 2010/11.



I think perhaps the dollar did increase in value.

Back when it rose to about 42.00 about two years ago I think the dollar was devalued so much there were massive layoffs. Hours were cut and the morning commute cleared out to ghost town levels.

As people had to adjust their bill paying to a mode of not paying I think a lot of us had to default. I'm thinking that removed a lot of currency out of the system and the dollar started to increase in value. Hours increased. People are gradually being called back. The commute is picking up.

See this Kitco chart? I'm thinking silver prices are tracking the inflation and the devaluation of the dollar pretty well.

See the forty dollar point? I'm thinking the dollar was so devalued it became unprofitable for people to earn a living. It just didn't pay enough. Nor did it pay to hire.





Also note the point in 2008 or so and the spike there. That may have been the point where the devaluation of the dollar broke the housing market bubble. Lots and lots of defaulting went along there. I think it then restored some of the value back in dollar indicated by the *falling of silver pricing*.




P.S. And to get back to Bitcoin. That's a tough one to figure. Your using an inflatable scale to measure an inflatable value. Also both are deflatable and neither necessarily has to have anything to do with the other.

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## Carson

P.S.P.S. And to top it all off the counterfeiters are cranking up the fake money presses to buy GOLD.

Whenever they print up money they don't really create anything that adds to our pile of stuff, they are just shifting the property lines.

So how evil is that, to counterfeit money at a time like this to make off with the gold supply? 

It's bad enough having to live with the governments spending and empire building. And empire building for what seems the counterfeiters themselves, I might add. Or not. But I did so there you have it.

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