# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Silver investors, be careful: COMEX warehouse inventory GROWS & options expiry coming up

## swissaustrian

I just took a look at the comex warehouse data:
Registered oz *GREW* by 2.255.878 oz over the weekend. Physical supply went *UP*. This is not a good sign because some big names sold their holdings that were "stored at the comex" = eligible. So be careful if you have _speculative_ postions in silver.
TOTAL REGISTERED 30.481.689 *+* 2.255.878 => 32.737.567
TOTAL ELIGIBLE 75.212.781*	-* 2.255.878
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ver_stocks.xls

Also have in mind that options expire on August 25th. This usually means manipulative price action.

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## matt0611

Thanks, I have a bunch of SLV shares , average price = $39 (I know, pretty bad huh). 
Think I should sell and buy back at a lower price?

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## swissaustrian

> Thanks, I have a bunch of SLV shares , average price = $39 (I know, pretty bad huh). 
> Think I should sell and buy back at a lower price?


Stopp-loss orders would be my choice. Maybe - 6% of the actual price, because the intraday losses usually don´t excede 5 %. -6% would require at least two down days in a row.

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## Seraphim

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

I'd like to see silver and gold crater for a few days. 2 more days until options expire - in this market, 6 dollars down on silver could happen. Would be nice .

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## swissaustrian

> http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
> 
> I'd like to see silver and gold crater for a few days. 2 more days until options expire - in this market, 6 dollars down on silver could happen. Would be nice .


Maybe we don´t see any movement at all IF stock markets tank again - like they do right now. Then silver might rise again together with gold.
But the massive growth in COMEX silver inventories is quite bearish for silver. So if stock markets don´t crash again before the end of the week, I think silver will go a bit lower.

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## swissaustrian

Switzerlands silver manipulator No 1 (UBS) says silver is going to reach $ 50 in 3 months:



> UBS have raised their 3 month forecast for silver sharply from $30/oz to $50/oz. They suggest that investors are too nervous to short gold and may be preferring to buy silver instead.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-r...ilver-3-months
Remember, their last call was silver going to $ 30 right after we had the big crash in may. Silver stood at $ 33 back then.
I don´t trust them at all. Probably they´re trying to suck their clients into silver to get rid of their own holdings.

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## Bern

According to Harvey, the silver uptick is due to lease agreements - the banks are desperate to shore up physical silver reserves (in anticipation of settling contracts with rising open interest):

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...in-access.html

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## swissaustrian

> According to Harvey, the silver uptick is due to lease agreements - the banks are desperate to shore up physical silver reserves (in anticipation of settling contracts with rising open interest):
> 
> http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...in-access.html


That´s a good idea, but he has no sources for that.
I would never lease my silver (or gold) to a bullion bank.

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## Seraphim

I'm speculating, but some of the banks may simply be adding to their reserves by buying off of weaker industrial companies who can't afford their own reserves. Most of those companies get their credit from the big banks anyway...trouble paying the bills? Here's some silver. 




> That´s a good idea, but he has no sources for that.
> I would never lease my silver (or gold) to a bullion bank.

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## swissaustrian

Here we go silver is dropping...

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## Seraphim

I've got almost 1K in vet bills in the next week otherwise I'd use the surplus on my next paycheck to grab another 10 ounce bar on sale. =(




> Here we go silver is dropping...

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## swissaustrian

It´s getting ugly.
Same for gold.

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## YumYum

Earthquakes, Hurricanes and PMs plummet. Exciting day we've had.

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## puppetmaster

> It´s getting ugly.
> Same for gold.


not too bad so far

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## swissaustrian

> not too bad so far


-5 % intraday for silver is big.
But we all know that fridays options expiry is coming...

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## Acala

So, when to buy this dip?

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## swissaustrian

> So, when to buy this dip?


I would wait until at least monday, because
1. options expire on friday
2. Bernanke is expected to announce some kind of QE3 on the weekend. If he doesn´t, metals might take a hit on monday because they are a bet on inflation.

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## Acala

> I would wait until at least monday, because
> 1. options expire on friday
> 2. Bernanke is expected to announce some kind of QE3 on the weekend. If he doesn´t, metals might take a hit on monday because they are a bet on inflation.


Thanks!

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## Seraphim

Truly, I think they know, that we know that their inventories are horribly low in relation to all the naked shorts and paper claims they have outstanding. The demand is becoming overwhelming on the investment side - that's with the public still somewhat unaware...It is in the best interest of The Comex and it's Custodian, JPM, to lop up all industrial slow downs and increase holdings because the purchase demand is there and growing (on the investment side) - and the desire to call their BLUFF!

Secondly, they also know that they are no longer the only big dog in town. Chinese/Indian demand is now just as, if not more important than US demand. 

The East is accumulating NON STOP, every day...without fail. The East hold the bedrock of world finance in their hands. Gold, oil, debt holdings, resources.

The West manipulates PM markets to the hilt...and until recently, totally ruled the world in this respect. No longer. It's a more even economic matchup now. Our tech $#@! still rocks though .


I hope the rumors are true that a light bearing wing of the US government is protecting vast gold holdings with the intent of protecting global markets to "legalize" competition in currency and a self imposed commodity standard of money and credit...YEEEEHAH. That'd be sweet. Oh wait...The US Constitution .

Ron Paul?

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## Seraphim

I agree with SwissAustrian...

Gold/silver...MIGHT...correct enough that waiting for the discount is advisable...Big picture...by Jan 1st 2012, the price of gold and silver should be substantially higher than now. The difference between buying in at 39 or 42 is not the greatest concern when end of year projections have MODEST outlooks saying 50+. Many saying 75, even 100.

I think silver around 70$ and gold around 2150 are reasonable forecasts at this point...Those prices might be the CORRECTED prices into February...gold could go to 2350 and then correct down after the Holiday run up to the New Year.

I think silver will likely trade between 35-43$ until near the end of September...from there sling shot upwards and outperform gold. 

Those who bought a lot of silver between 4$ and 20$ are about to be rewarded for their diligence.









> Thanks!

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## swissaustrian

No doubt that this is a long term bull market  Who would have thought that silver is at 42 and gold at 1830 one year ago?

On the Asian demand issue:
Seems like Shanghai is increasing margins as well this time:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/precio...me-month-prepa
I really don´t give a lot of credibility to the "Rothschild conspiracy", but it´s interesting that a family member owns a significant part of the Shanghai metals exchange.

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## swissaustrian

And the attack goes on. Of course during CRIMEX trading.

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## Seraphim

People like you and I benefit from this. Just buy when on sale and stand pat as inevitable bull cycles grow larger and larger.

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## Bruno

> People like you and I benefit from this. Just buy when on sale and stand pat as inevitable bull cycles grow larger and larger.


+ rep

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## swissaustrian

I think we´ll see 40 by the end of the week

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## Bern

> ... This Friday is options expiry month for both silver and gold whereby all in the money options will be given a futures contract. In gold they will receive a Sept gold and in silver they will receive a September silver. It is the latter that worries the bankers as the in-the-money options in silver at a 42 strike price is considerable. The bankers will whack the price of silver below $42 so that the options become worthless. This has been their modus operandi for years. 
> ...
> ...The options expiry is this Friday and also the September contract goes off the board. However the September contract will trade until all longs are satisfied. Here the September contract rose by 5000 contracts to 55,713 which is huge when you consider that in 3 days the contract goes off the board. One would expect a huge contraction in numbers ...


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...lver-with.html

The last few months, the # of contracts has usually contracted to 10,000 or less by options expiry.  With just 3 days to go, I would have expected the number of contracts to have dropped to 30K or so.  Interesting times....

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## JasonC

Hmm.. I'm watching carefully. I'm thinking of jumping into AGQ (2x levrgd. silver fund) when silver is around the 40.00-40.50. I can hold the money in there for some time, so I'm not worried if it corrects a bit further in the short term.

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## swissaustrian

The cartell launched it´s nukes today. Shaking all the weak hands out

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## Seraphim

Naw nukes are the days like in May when it drops 5-8$.  This is just cover fire.

I'm glad I'm not a weak hand .




> The cartell launched it´s nukes today. Shaking all the weak hands out

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## matt0611

I got out of SLV at 42.xx, I'll buy again once it hits 38.00, thanks for the heads up on this.

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## swissaustrian

Just in case anybody doubts the thesis that the CRIMEX is the center of PM-price-manipulation, take a look at this chart. (Hint: grey slot) The whole takedown from 42 to 39 occured in the 3,5 hours of CRIMEX trading

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## Bern

They have to shake some of the 55,713 contracts that were still standing before the end of the week.  That's 278+ Million ounces of silver.  The CRIMEX only (supposedly) has 32+ Million ounces available to settle contracts.  I'll be watching for Harvey's commentary tonight and the rest of the week with "interest".

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## swissaustrian

> They have to shake some of the 55,713 contracts that were still standing before the end of the week.  That's 278+ Million ounces of silver.  The CRIMEX only (supposedly) has 32+ Million ounces available to settle contracts.  I'll be watching for Harvey's commentary tonight and the rest of the week with "interest".


David Morgan told his subscribers that he expects silver to touch the 50 daily moving average (38.2) maybe even the 200 dma (34.7):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER

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## Jeez

Silver can go quite low once industrial sell off begins (panic selling). 

It's sad a lot of you average joe jumped on Gold and Silver at their highs after cashing out their investments (at their lows).

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## Acala

> Silver can go quite low once industrial sell off begins (panic selling). 
> 
> It's sad a lot of you average joe jumped on Gold and Silver at their highs after cashing out their investments (at their lows).


Panic selling coming?  Ooohh!!!  I can hardly wait!

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## Jeez

> Panic selling coming?  Ooohh!!!  I can hardly wait!


75% of Silver is for industrial use and there is massive amounts held in warehouses. If *a big IF here* companies believe there is economic slow down and want to cash in on their silver gains the sell of will continue.

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## Acala

> 75% of Silver is for industrial use and there is massive amounts held in warehouses. If *a big IF here* companies believe there is economic slow down and want to cash in on their silver gains the sell of will continue.


Awesome!  I wasn't kidding.  I HOPE there is a vast panicky sell-off that drives the price of silver to $5 an ounce.  I will borrow every cent I can from every source and buy every ounce I can get.

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## Bern

Jeez - the COMEX only has ~32M ounces of silver to settle the September contracts.  Something big is happening I think. Looks like Harvey hasn't quite finished his report for today, but it appears that open interest in silver *rose* yesterday while silver fell.  If contracts aren't rolling over to forward months, all hell is gonna break loose next month.

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## _b_

I'm with Acala, I've been waiting for a good time to jump in, hope this is it.

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## Gaddafi Duck

> Jeez - the COMEX only has ~32M ounces of silver to settle the September contracts.  Something big is happening I think. Looks like Harvey hasn't quite finished his report for today, but it appears that open interest in silver *rose* yesterday while silver fell.  If contracts aren't rolling over to forward months, all hell is gonna break loose next month.


Uhhmm... yeah.. 

Realize that in all commodity markets, the paper always exceeds the physical. Some people feel it's conspiratorial, I think it's great. Better market liquidity creates more efficient pricing. 99% of all futures contracts go without delivery of the underlying. It's been that way for hundreds of years and is the best system we've been able to develop to tell producers if more supply is warranted, and consumers if changes in their consumption or substitution are necessary. 

This is nothing groundbreaking. I trade soybeans, soy meal, and corn for a living. Yes, if someone suddenly wanted a massive amount of beans delivered per their contracts, we'd have a big problem when it comes to purchasing anything with vegetable oil and meat. Truth is, no one has the capacity to store that many soybeans, just as no one is going to want to take possession of tens of thousands of ounces of silver. You must realize the amount of power and control you lose when you attempt to corner a market. 

It's as if comments like yours are blurted out without much thought. The major funds and institutions that provide the liquidity in the system have absolutely zero interest in actually storing pork bellies or tons of silver bars. Your comments seem to imply that all a few people have to do is flip the switch and it all goes to hell. You don't seem to take into account the liability that would create on those taking possession.

Too much paranoia and misunderstanding out there. That's what ignorance does to you.

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## Bern

> ... The front month of September which have the interest of everyone, saw its OI fall only marginally from 33,364 to 32,396 despite being a few days away from first day notice. ...


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...-and-gold.html

Contracts are rolling over now, but 32K still represents 165M ounces of silver (versus the COMEX inventory of 33.5M available to settle contracts).

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## swissaustrian

> Uhhmm... yeah.. 
> 
> Realize that in all commodity markets, the paper always exceeds the physical. Some people feel it's conspiratorial, I think it's great. Better market liquidity creates more efficient pricing. 99% of all futures contracts go without delivery of the underlying. It's been that way for hundreds of years and is the best system we've been able to develop to tell producers if more supply is warranted, and consumers if changes in their consumption or substitution are necessary. 
> 
> This is nothing groundbreaking. I trade soybeans, soy meal, and corn for a living. Yes, if someone suddenly wanted a massive amount of beans delivered per their contracts, we'd have a big problem when it comes to purchasing anything with vegetable oil and meat. Truth is, no one has the capacity to store that many soybeans, just as no one is going to want to take possession of tens of thousands of ounces of silver. You must realize the amount of power and control you lose when you attempt to corner a market. 
> 
> It's as if comments like yours are blurted out without much thought. The major funds and institutions that provide the liquidity in the system have absolutely zero interest in actually storing pork bellies or tons of silver bars. Your comments seem to imply that all a few people have to do is flip the switch and it all goes to hell. You don't seem to take into account the liability that would create on those taking possession.
> 
> Too much paranoia and misunderstanding out there. That's what ignorance does to you.


I think you make some very good points, but I see some differences between paper markets for softs and those for precious metals.
1. The investment objective: Paper markets are great for hedging purposes for the producers and traders of a particular good. Nobody doubts that. Hedging is a legitimate purpose. 
2. But what´s the investment objective of PM investors? You can´t eat, burn (as fuel) or feed gold and silver - things you could do with soybeans, soy meal, and corn. Gold basicly is a nice looking currency with a small fraction of industrial and jewlery use. Silver is a hybrid market consisting of currency and industrial demand. Why do people use gold and silver as currencies? Because they can´t be created out of thin air AND they don´t have a *counterparty*, i.e. they are not debt. If you invest in a *fractional reserve* gold and silver market, you once again have a counterparty. If you want that, you can stick to a fiat currency as well. The whole advantage of PM´s as currencies is gone. 
The concern of pm investors basicly is: There could be a *run on the bank*, in the case of gold / silver: the comex. As the comex is a fractional reserve system, it *might* collapse, IF physical demand > inventories.
In a nutshell: To compare pm currencies and agricultural goods seems to be inadequate to me.

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## Seraphim

I only oppose the naked shorts...if JPM's short positions were all lawful I would thank them for aiding in market stability. 

It's a shell game, Ponzi Scheme that will end at some point - the more they hammer the price down the more chances I have to buy some real dips.

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## Imaginos

> Awesome!  I wasn't kidding.  I HOPE there is a vast panicky sell-off that drives the price of silver to $5 an ounce.  I will borrow every cent I can from every source and buy every ounce I can get.


+1

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## swissaustrian

Options settlement at 3:30 pm ET.
My predicitions:
Gold 1774
Silver 39.9

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## Bern

Gold mid 1770's
Silver 40.20

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## swissaustrian

And... another attack. Like clockworks...

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## Lafayette

> And... another attack. Like clockworks...



More margin hikes incoming!

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## swissaustrian

Very interesting fact: Silver is down 1.7%, gold 2.3%. That shows the strength of silver.

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## Bern

I believe that London is closed today.  The last time London was closed on a Monday was during the May CME margin hike assault on silver.  The banks like to drop the hammer when the markets are (relatively) thinly traded.

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## swissaustrian

> I believe that London is closed today.  The last time London was closed on a Monday was during the May CME margin hike assault on silver.  The banks like to drop the hammer when the markets are (relatively) thinly traded.


This + futures expiry for gold
see here, page 12
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/meta...dar_metals.pdf

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## billjones

> This + futures expiry for gold
> see here, page 12
> http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/meta...dar_metals.pdf


swissaustrian,

What do you predict will happen with gold/silver prices in this upcoming week? (When should I buy?)

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## psi2941

Have u been reading this forum? Just buy the freaking thing on the ffirst no matter the price

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## swissaustrian

> swissaustrian,
> 
> What do you predict will happen with gold/silver prices in this upcoming week? (When should I buy?)


Just a guess, so don´t kill me if I´m wrong. 
The driving forces should be:
1. The stock market. IF the recovery continues, PMs might go somewhat lower. A lot of economic data is released this week, that could kill the recovery fast.
2. The USD/EUR exchange rate. If the EUR looses against the USD on European political theater (PIIGS bailout etc.), PMs might take a hit as well. The safe haven function of PMs should limit the losses though.
3. Margin hikes. There are some indications that gold margins might be hiked again soon. Usually they announce this at the end of the week, but who knows what drives their thoughts?
4. Momentum: Technically gold is still overbought. Silver is rather neutral, maybe slightly overbought.
5. Fundamentals: Gold supply at the COMEX looks tighter than silver supply right now. Silver supply actually went up quite a bit, but futures are still in backwardation.

Summary: A lot of uncertainties.
I think tuesday arround 9:30 am ET might be a good time to buy (because the stock market isn´t going to like the consumer confidence data on 10 am), but you should secure your positions with stop-loss orders.
If it weren´t for the stock market, i´d expect gold to go a little lower to 1650-1700; silver to 39 or so. These are the 50 day moving averages. But trading volume in stocks is so low that could shoot up PM once again IF some sellers step into the stock market.
Take a look at the volume of S&P500 futures (at the bottom of the chart):

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## Seraphim

buy physical with the intent of contently sitting on it for 2+ years.




> swissaustrian,
> 
> What do you predict will happen with gold/silver prices in this upcoming week? (When should I buy?)

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## billjones

Wow. A lot of good info. Thanks, swissaustrian. 

Unfortunately most of it went over my head. And fwiw I was talking about physical pm's. I'm going to put a decent chunk of my net worth into pm's all at once and have been waiting for the right time to buy. 

It seems most people on this board advocate buying asap, which makes sense because they also advocate buying gradually. But since I'm not taking that advice it's important that I buy on a dip, if possible. 

So I guess what I'm asking is, when exactly is the next dip?

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## Seraphim

> Wow. A lot of good info. Thanks, swissaustrian. 
> 
> Unfortunately most of it went over my head. And fwiw I was talking about physical pm's. I'm going to put a decent chunk of my net worth into pm's all at once and have been waiting for the right time to buy. 
> 
> It seems most people on this board advocate buying asap, which makes sense because they also advocate buying gradually. But since I'm not taking that advice it's important that I buy on a dip, if possible. 
> 
> *So I guess what I'm asking is, when exactly is the next dip?*


Already occured. Silver is CONSOLIDATING right now. Has been since mid may...Could trade between the mid 30's and low 40's for a bit longer...High season for PM's starts next week.

I would not expect a significant drop in silver EXCEPT in a market wide deflationary crash.

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## billjones

> buy physical with the intent of contently sitting on it for 2+ years.


I would be content sitting on it for 10+ years if need be. Whatever is necessary to preserve wealth/make a profit.

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## billjones

> Already occured. Silver is CONSOLIDATING right now. Has been since mid may...Could trade between the mid 30's and low 40's for a bit longer...High season for PM's starts next week.
> 
> I would not expect a significant drop in silver EXCEPT in a market wide deflationary crash.


So what exactly would you recommend for me? 80% silver 20% gold or something similar? 

I had planned something like 70% gold 30% silver.

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## Seraphim

My preference is with silver. 

If you don't have the stomach to take on the global elite banks - stick to gold. Silver is their favorite whipping boy. They drop it 10-15% in a couple days every so often. If you can handle that...I recommend a solid chunk of silver.

If you have a core of steel - silver all the way. 




> So what exactly would you recommend for me? 80% silver 20% gold or something similar? 
> 
> I had planned something like 70% gold 30% silver.

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## Dr.3D

> My preference is with silver. 
> 
> If you don't have the stomach to take on the global elite banks - stick to gold. Silver is their favorite whipping boy. They drop it 10-15% in a couple days every so often. If you can handle that...I recommend a solid chunk of silver.
> 
> If you have a core of steel - silver all the way.


Same here... 

If I were currently going to buy some metals, I would probably go with $3 worth of silver for every $1 worth of gold purchased.

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## billjones

> My preference is with silver. 
> 
> If you don't have the stomach to take on the global elite banks - stick to gold. Silver is their favorite whipping boy. They drop it 10-15% in a couple days every so often. If you can handle that...I recommend a solid chunk of silver.
> 
> If you have a core of steel - silver all the way.





> Same here... 
> 
> If I were currently going to buy some metals, I would probably go with $3 worth of silver for every $1 worth of gold purchased.


Could you explain why? 

Sorry I have a lot of questions. Its just that this is a huge decision for me. How much to invest, what mix of pm's, when to invest, etc.

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## Zippyjuan

Nobody can tell you exactly when to buy. Markets can't be accurately predicted that specifically. A good way to handle that is to make regular dollar sized purchases at regular intervals- say $100 a month for example- when the price is higher, you end up buying less of it and when prices are lower you end up buying more. 

Back in May I think it was there was a thread that silver was about to boom ("Silver to Hit $125 This Summer" or something like that.  It is not far from the price it was when that one was posted ($42).  You also need to judge for yourself how much to put in. Take into consideration when you may need access to the money you want to put into silver (or any other investment).  Remember to include costs of any investment- the costs of purchasing it, the costs of selling it, and the taxes on any gains (I believe silver and gold are subject to a 25% "collectables" tax rate).

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## Seraphim

The Earth produces 13-14 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. Current ratio is 44 and 1 (price wise - takes 44 silver ounces to buy a gold ounce). History shows the ratio OVER THE LONG TERM tends to revert back to that ratio, or very close.

Compared to the nominal highs of the 1980 bubble...gold is more than DOUBLE that nominal high. Silver is still around 80% of that nominal high - let alone double.

Industrial uses have used up a lot of silver and physical silver is actually HARDER to come by than gold.




> Could you explain why? 
> 
> Sorry I have a lot of questions. Its just that this is a huge decision for me. How much to invest, what mix of pm's, when to invest, etc.

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## billjones

> Nobody can tell you exactly when to buy. Markets can't be accurately predicted that specifically. *A good way to handle that is to make regular dollar sized purchases at regular intervals- say $100 a month for example- when the price is higher, you end up buying less of it and when prices are lower you end up buying more.* 
> 
> Back in May I think it was there was a thread that silver was about to boom ("Silver to Hit $125 This Summer" or something like that.  It is not far from the price it was when that one was posted ($42).  You also need to judge for yourself how much to put in. Take into consideration when you may need access to the money you want to put into silver (or any other investment).  Remember to include costs of any investment- the costs of purchasing it, the costs of selling it, and the taxes on any gains (I believe silver and gold are subject to a 25% "collectables" tax rate).


I understand this theory. But, if we conclude that the price is going up (long term), shouldn't one buy as much as they can afford, or as much as they are willing to invest, all at once?

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## billjones

> The Earth produces 13-14 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. Current ratio is 44 and 1 (price wise - takes 44 silver ounces to buy a gold ounce). History shows the ratio OVER THE LONG TERM tends to revert back to that ratio, or very close.
> 
> Compared to the nominal highs of the 1980 bubble...gold is more than DOUBLE that nominal high. Silver is still around 80% of that nominal high - let alone double.
> 
> Industrial uses have used up a lot of silver and physical silver is actually HARDER to come by than gold.


Ok. You have convinced me silver has more potential (although more volatile). My next question is what do you buy? Junk silver? 

Btw, sorry to hijack your thread swissaustrian.

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## Seraphim

Depends on your vision and goals.

Bullion or junk (pre 1964 American coins) are my two favorites. Both are HIGHLY liquid and both are great. Can't really go wrong with either. Follow your instincts and go with the best deal you find and what is convinient for you.

Good luck.




> Ok. You have convinced me silver has more potential (although more volatile). My next question is what do you buy? Junk silver? 
> 
> Btw, sorry to hijack your thread swissaustrian.

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## swissaustrian

> Btw, sorry to hijack your thread swissaustrian.


No problem

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## swissaustrian

If you want to make a contribution to the SuperPAC and buy silver buy these coins for as low as *$56.99* (pure .999 silver):
http://ronpaulswag.com/ron-paul-silver-coin.html

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## ThePiousPriest

I've got 4 oz of silver and would like to purchase more.I'd like to amass about 150 to 200 oz. How much longer do we have on prices around this area until either a major margin hike on it that causes the price to go down or a massive increase in the prices? I work a job barely above minimum wage and get paid every two weeks. Naturally I'm a little bit apprehensive. I got in just a few weeks ago when silver was between $39-41 an oz. I plan to hold for the long term, as I expect massive inflation and the only PM I can currently get into is silver.

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## blabam

> I've got 4 oz of silver and would like to purchase more.I'd like to amass about 150 to 200 oz. How much longer do we have on prices around this area until either a major margin hike on it that causes the price to go down or a massive increase in the prices? I work a job barely above minimum wage and get paid every two weeks. Naturally I'm a little bit apprehensive. I got in just a few weeks ago when silver was between $39-41 an oz. I plan to hold for the long term, as I expect massive inflation and the only PM I can currently get into is silver.


*Gold may hit $2,500 in 2011: JP Morgan*
http://business.financialpost.com/20...011-jp-morgan/

I'm no expert. But silver should go up with that prediction. So buy as much as you can!

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## ThePiousPriest

I've heard that the historic ratio of silver is 15:1 or so. If gold would hit 2500, if my math is correct, that would put silver at 166.66 an oz? I was hoping that I could get enough silver that when hyperinflation occurs, I could wipe my debts out, buy a vehicle outright in cash and purchase a home. Maybe too much hope, but I think the debt deal is possible.

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## swissaustrian

> I've heard that the historic ratio of silver is 15:1 or so. If gold would hit 2500, if my math is correct, that would put silver at 166.66 an oz? I was hoping that I could get enough silver that when hyperinflation occurs, I could wipe my debts out, buy a vehicle outright in cash and purchase a home. Maybe too much hope, but I think the debt deal is possible.


As long as you don´t use borrowed money to buy silver, it surely is a long term buy.

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## ThePiousPriest

> As long as you don´t use borrowed money to buy silver, it surely is a long term buy.


Naw, the money is coming from my paychecks. Living at home may seem like a step back, but it will allow me to spend more of my paycheck on silver. Also hoping to liquidate some assets (old antique Apple computer and possibly my plasma TV) to put toward silver.

I'm hoping for some deflation so I can take some dollars and buy a ton but quasai minimum wage jobs (7.77 an hour after 3 years and I work my rear end off) make it difficult.

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## billjones

> If you want to make a contribution to the SuperPAC and buy silver buy these coins for as low as *$56.99* (pure .999 silver):
> http://ronpaulswag.com/ron-paul-silver-coin.html


Good Idea. I was planning on investing in some Ron Paul t-shirts/car magnets/yard signs/etc for myself and my family/friends. What not throw some silver in there too?

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## Zippyjuan

> I've heard that the historic ratio of silver is 15:1 or so. If gold would hit 2500, if my math is correct, that would put silver at 166.66 an oz? I was hoping that I could get enough silver that when hyperinflation occurs, I could wipe my debts out, buy a vehicle outright in cash and purchase a home. Maybe too much hope, but I think the debt deal is possible.


It might be a good idea to get rid of the debt first-unless you can be pretty certain (there are no guarantees) that you can get a higher return (after all expenses and taxes on returns) on the investment than the interest rate you are being charged.  What sort of debt and what interest rate are we talking about?  Investments should be money you won't be needing for at least a few years down the road.

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## Seraphim

TBH I think Western custodians of bullion banks/exchanges are doing this because of PAGE and the demand for investment grade metal.

Seriously - PAGE threatens the business models of London and NY. They are scared $#@!less of global markets calling their fractional reserve gold bluff.

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## Bern

PAGE:  http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-Gold-Exchange

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## Bern

Hope you got in before today Bill.  Looks like we are off to the races again.

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## swissaustrian

> Hope you got in before today Bill.  Looks like we are off to the races again.


COMEX warehouse data looks like the big august delivery has begun:

TOTAL REGISTERED	32.146.141  //	0   //	0	 //             0	       //      *-67.489*  //   32.078.652
TOTAL ELIGIBLE		73.329.487 // 	829.894 //	1.967.481 //	-1.137.587 //	67.489 // 	72.259.389
COMBINED TOTAL		105.475.628	//  829.894	//  1.967.481	// *-1.137.587* // 	0 // 	104.338.041
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ver_Stocks.xls

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## Seraphim

10am East. in 3 minutes.

10am to noon should see silver get hammered down by nearly a dollar.

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## billjones

> Hope you got in before today Bill.  Looks like we are off to the races again.


I was too busy waiting for the next dip, which I guess I will continue to do.

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## Zippyjuan

You will only know if it is a good buying opportunity or worth waiting in the future- when the opportunity has passed if it is a good time.

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## Romulus

It's still a good time!!!! IMO

When it hits $50, ppl will wish the wouldve bought now.

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## Seraphim

The dip was when it went to 33$ from 48$.

You will not recognize the POS two months from now. Buy now and then sit on it.




> I was too busy waiting for the next dip, which I guess I will continue to do.

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## billjones

Ok I'm going to pull the trigger on silver! What about gold? Should I be more apt to wait on gold?

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## Seraphim

I say silver for a variety of reasons...but if you don't mind plunking down 2 grand for an ounce of gold, go ahead. GOld will do VERY well...I think Silver will do extremely well. 

Also, if you are a working person without a big fund sitting on the side..silver is much more affordable at the moment.




> Ok I'm going to pull the trigger on silver! What about gold? Should I be more apt to wait on gold?

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## JasonC

I bought AGQ (2x silver fund) at 208 a share last week when silver was just about at 40. AGQ is now at 244 a share, and I'm trying to decide whether or not to sell today before the close or just hold till silver hits 50. I could keep selling at highs and buying back on small dips and compound my gains, but I have a feeling silver will open next week above where it closes today..... decisions.. decisions.. Silver is due for a nice surge...

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## Seraphim

Personally I would hold until Dec 15th no matter what the daily conditions and re-assess on that date. Note that I would do that with a paper trading avenue...physical you can pry out of my cold dead hands, or until a new global monetary system is set up.

Take that as you will.




> I bought AGQ (2x silver fund) at 208 a share last week when silver was just about at 40. AGQ is now at 244 a share, and I'm trying to decide whether or not to sell today before the close or just hold till silver hits 50. I could keep selling at highs and buying back on small dips and compound my gains, but I have a feeling silver will open next week above where it closes today..... decisions.. decisions.. Silver is due for a nice surge...

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## JasonC

Yeah.. I know that is the best bet, but the greed in me is trying to squeeze a bit more gains out of this silver run. I could end up missing out on gains, though, so I'll probaby just hold onto it and not try to be too fancy.

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## MegD4Freedom

Some more silver and gold scam advice from Peter Schiff's latest report: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...VOID-THE-SCAMS

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## Zippyjuan

> Personally I would hold until Dec 15th no matter what the daily conditions and re-assess on that date. Note that I would do that with a paper trading avenue...physical you can pry out of my cold dead hands, or until a new global monetary system is set up.
> 
> Take that as you will.


Why December 15th?

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## Seraphim

Seasonally, precious metals do best between Sept 1st and right up to Christmas. Year in, Year out.

January 2nd, year in, year out....is when some real profits are taken and things cool off.

Dec 15 is right around the time where PM markets cool off for Christmas. Pick a date anytime between the 15th and the 31st. 





> Why December 15th?

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## billjones

How do you guys think this 3 day weekend (Labor day) will affect PM's?

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## billjones

We need to rename this thread "BillJones advise thread".

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## Seraphim

Nothing fundemental.




> How do you guys think this 3 day weekend (Labor day) will affect PM's?

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## Dr.3D

> Ok I'm going to pull the trigger on silver! What about gold? Should I be more apt to wait on gold?


I hope you know to go with physical silver.   The paper stuff is just that, a paper promise for something that may not really exist.

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## D.A.S.

I've been considering starting to buy up some silver bullion, too.  Silver has closed around $44, and while there is some short-term uncertainty, I see the long-term trend is UP, at least until (if ever) our government considerably overhauls its economic and other policies.  I don't have much money at this point, but I've considered using my "hobby" budget toward buying some silver as an experiment.

In general, what is considered to be a good deal on physical silver bullion for, say, 1 oz?  Is it about 10% over market price?  I imagine it's very difficult to buy PMs in small quantities at market price?

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## WilliamC

Took a friend of mine to the coin store today so he could sell some gold scrap. Even though I'm pretty much broke (I had $20 in my pocket) and already 'ave a smidgen o' silver I just can't say no and was going to buy a particularly shiny 1964 quarter when the store owner let me get a 1963 proof Ben Franklin 1/2 dollar for junk price as someone had brought it to the store out of it's sealed container. 

After tax it was ~$17.

I know it's not much, but still, sweet!

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## cooker263

> I've been considering starting to buy up some silver bullion, too.  Silver has closed around $44, and while there is some short-term uncertainty, I see the long-term trend is UP, at least until (if ever) our government considerably overhauls its economic and other policies.  I don't have much money at this point, but I've considered using my "hobby" budget toward buying some silver as an experiment.
> 
> In general, what is considered to be a good deal on physical silver bullion for, say, 1 oz?  Is it about 10% over market price?  I imagine it's very difficult to buy PMs in small quantities at market price?


Depends on what you get. Silver Eagles are a couple dollars over spot and then a broker fee around 3 percent - other places will just have a number near $5 premium. Junk or general bullion would be cheaper, but when you go to sell them, the Eagles will get you more.

Don't consider it an experiment necessarily - consider it an investment or a hedge.  I'm due for another purchase - was going to put in a big order Friday but I held off since it went up so much.  If you see it dip down on Tuesday or at some point next week, I'd definitely get in at that point.

Good luck!

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## D.A.S.

I would like to get some non-denominational silver, something that doesn't say "1 dollar" or "quarter dollar".  I'm just not sure I can count on people being reasonable: "well why would i give you more than a dollar for it when it says 1 dollar?"  I'm talking about dire times, of course, when you might have to deal with farmers or someone selling food or materials or whatever you need to get.

Silver bullion is going on eBay for $46 per troy oz and up, depending on condition and some special graphic.  Sometimes there are "good deals" where you could get it for $45.

How much does the price of silver on eBay and at the actual online dealers change with the price of silver on the stock market?  Does it reflect pretty quickly or does it lag or does it always stay above market?

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## Seraphim

If it comes down to you needing to barter/pay in silver - it will take almost no time for "the word" to spread that pre 1964 American coins are not worth a modern quarter, or whatever the denomination.

The people that don't figure that out are the ones that will go hungry pretty quick.




> I would like to get some non-denominational silver, something that doesn't say "1 dollar" or "quarter dollar".  I'm just not sure I can count on people being reasonable: "well why would i give you more than a dollar for it when it says 1 dollar?"  I'm talking about dire times, of course, when you might have to deal with farmers or someone selling food or materials or whatever you need to get.
> 
> Silver bullion is going on eBay for $46 per troy oz and up, depending on condition and some special graphic.  Sometimes there are "good deals" where you could get it for $45.
> 
> How much does the price of silver on eBay and at the actual online dealers change with the price of silver on the stock market?  Does it reflect pretty quickly or does it lag or does it always stay above market?

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## D.A.S.

> If it comes down to you needing to barter/pay in silver - it will take almost no time for "the word" to spread that pre 1964 American coins are not worth a modern quarter, or whatever the denomination.
> 
> The people that don't figure that out are the ones that will go hungry pretty quick.


Those 90% silver pre-1964 coins should then be worth 0.90*(silver market price) per troy ounce?

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## WilliamC

> Those 90% silver pre-1964 coins should then be worth 0.90*(silver market price) per troy ounce?


For 90% prices check www.coinflation.com, it has a good conversion calculator.

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## Bern

> Those 90% silver pre-1964 coins should then be worth 0.90*(silver market price) per troy ounce?


Rule of thumb is that pre-64 coins have .715 troy ounces of silver for every $1 of face value.

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## D.A.S.

> For 90% prices check www.coinflation.com, it has a good conversion calculator.


That's a really awesome website -- thank you. 




> Rule of thumb is that pre-64 coins have .715 troy ounces of silver for every $1 of face value.


Good to know!  I guess I'm not sure whether the bars or the coins are a safer investment for someone like me who is a beginner and may want to sell them at some point down the road.  Right now, I'm more inclined to buy 1-oz .999 fine silver bars.  I imagine a lot of silver beginners probably think this way as well, so does that make those silver bars generally more expensive than coins?

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## WilliamC

> That's a really awesome website -- thank you. 
> 
> 
> 
> Good to know!  I guess I'm not sure whether the bars or the coins are a safer investment for someone like me who is a beginner and may want to sell them at some point down the road.  Right now, I'm more inclined to buy 1-oz .999 fine silver bars.  I imagine a lot of silver beginners probably think this way as well, so does that make those silver bars generally more expensive than coins?


You should be able to get generic bars or coins for about the same price, but a lot of the generic stuff isn't as recognizable as 1 oz American Silver Eagles for instance.

There's nothing wrong with 90% junk either, everyone recognizes it and it's almost always got the lowest markup.

DO STAY AWAY from silver shot or scrap that is sold to jewlers, sometimes I've seen this for slightly under spot, but very few people will want it when you go to sell.

There are various investment strategies if you have a large amount of money but for a few hundred to thousand dollars just buy 1 oz American Eagles or some 'nice' 1 oz bullion (bars/coins from a well known mint) and you won't go wrong.

If you have lots of money PM me and I'll be glad to offer more personalized investment advice. 

Of course I don't have lots of money either, so take it for what it's worth

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## D.A.S.

> If you have lots of money PM me and I'll be glad to offer more personalized investment advice. 
> 
> Of course I don't have lots of money either, so take it for what it's worth


Hehe -- I wish!  No, for now, my investments will be in the hundreds and going slow.  Eventually will work into thousands, but that will be over time.  So no large orders here!

Great advices for sure and are much appreciated!

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## Bern

> ... I guess I'm not sure whether the bars or the coins are a safer investment for someone like me who is a beginner and may want to sell them at some point down the road. ...


90% silver and Silver Eagles are both very liquid - every metals retailer will buy them.  With generic bars/rounds, stick with well known mints.  Stay awar from exotic or collectable units (IMO).  YMMV.

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## billjones

> 90% silver and Silver Eagles are both very liquid - every metals retailer will buy them.  With generic bars/rounds, stick with well known mints.  Stay awar from exotic or collectable units (IMO).  YMMV.


What's the difference between 90% and 1 oz rounds (say Buffalo rounds) when you go to resell them? I assume you would get less than spot for the 90% and somewhere around spot (maybe a bit more?) for the 1 oz rounds. Yes?

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## Bern

My local coin shop has varying buy back prices on generic rounds/bars.  I'm not sure what the market for Buffalo rounds looks like.  You can check what apmex offers right from their website for most items and it should give you a baseline idea what a local coin shop might offer.  I'm pretty sure tulving.com also lists their buy price too.

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## Imaginos

> Seasonally, precious metals do best between Sept 1st and right up to Christmas. Year in, Year out.


Yes and the best month usually is September.
Below link is Silver's seasonal performance chart for past 37 years.
September surely is wonderful month for Silver.
However, this time, Silver's momentum is much bigger than just a seasonal wave.
Fiat currency combined with precious metal price manipulation scam is about to collapse.
JP Morgan and other price manipulators will have very interesting months to come.

http://seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

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## Seraphim

Agreed.




> Yes and the best month usually is September.
> Below link is Silver's seasonal performance chart for past 37 years.
> September surely is wonderful month for Silver.
> However, this time, Silver's momentum is much bigger than just a seasonal wave.
> Fiat currency combined with precious metal price manipulation scam is about to collapse.
> JP Morgan and other price manipulators will have very interesting months to come.
> 
> http://seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

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## jason43

I've recently been picking up some junk silver coins on ebay, they seem to me to be a very simple way to get physical silver that most people will know is real. My main motivation is bartering and buying in case of a $ collapse not really as an investment. I'll be happy if I lose money on them, because it will mean crisis was somehow averted. The more I read and learn though, the less I actually believe we're getting out of this without some type of outright monetary collapse. Gold would be preferable but it is so expensive right now it is hard to buy in any quantity that would be good for barter. Either way, it would be a lot better to have either one than paper dollars a year or two from now.

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