# Liberty Movement > Defenders of Liberty > Justin Amash Forum >  Amash trailing Democrat challenger in new poll (Detroit News)

## DeMintConservative

> Lansing  Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Justin Amash is in a tight race for his second term.
> 
> A poll released today shows Amash trailing his Democratic challenger, Steve Pestka, with more than two weeks before Election Day. Pestka of Grand Rapids was up 34.9 percent to 33.8 percent for Amash of Cascade Township, according to a live operator poll of 400 likely voters conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Glengariff Group. Inc.
> 
> But 28.5 percent of those surveyed were undecided. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.


From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2...#ixzz2A1WiYpMB

With almost a third of undecided, this poll is pretty much useless so I wouldn't read too much into it. Not sure why the pollster didn't push leaners at all. Amash campaign manager claims their internal are showing a double digits lead. 

Still, it's kind of worrying. Amash should have this wrapped up by now in a district like this.

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## angelatc

> Still, it's kind of worrying. Amash should have this wrapped up by now in a district like this.


Aside from the fact that you're probably trolling - I'm not sure what you mean "in a district like this."  The GOP handed him a big bunch of Democrats when they redistricted. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/michigan-map-highlights-gop-redistricting-challenges/2011/06/20/AGzYP4cH_blog.html

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## DeMintConservative

> Aside from the fact that you're probably trolling - I'm not sure what you mean "in a district like this."  The GOP handed him a big bunch of Democrats when they redistricted. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/michigan-map-highlights-gop-redistricting-challenges/2011/06/20/AGzYP4cH_blog.html


I mean a 50-49 Obama district in Michigan. At a congressional level, this should be safe R. 

Plus, Amash district went from 49 McCain-49 Obama to 50 O - 49 M in redistricting. Claiming that making a district +1 O is giving him "a big bunch of Democrats" is quite a bit hyperbolic, isn't it? Probably Amash campaign is telling the truth when they say they're up by double digits - but the point is that they should be up by double digits in this district and, while the high number of undecided gives some comfort, it's still worrying to see public polls with this type of results. The GOP cant' afford to lose this type of seat.

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## mz10

Those of you who are closely involved with the race, is this poll consistent with what you guys are seeing? If so, this is really worrisome.

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## DeMintConservative

The race must be somewhat competitive, otherwise the Democrat wouldn't  be loaning $1 million. I'd hope it isn't anywhere this close. In the end, I'd guess Amash wins by double digits, but it's still worrisome this seat is being difficult to defend.

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## raystone

New poll shows Amash dominating with 50% of decideds.

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=...&id=3160982f96

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## sailingaway

> New poll shows Amash dominating with 50% of decideds.
> 
> http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=...&id=3160982f96


I really wish they had found a polling company that did not have the initials POS


Which is credible? We aren't trying to trash him in any way, we are trying to find out if he is less secure than people thought, at this point.

--

on the other hand the pollster in the OP is Glengariff Group. Inc. whom I never heard of.  Is this a case of duling 'inside polls' and is that the Dem's private pollster?

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## sailingaway

It looks like there was one by the challenger's internal pollster that got a lot of play 'halving the lead', so if this is part of that, they may just be creating the IMAGE of a surge, which can still be very damaging if you think of Santorum, and the fake CNN poll just before the caucuses.

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapi...tinues_to.html

Do we know if these are internal numbers?

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## KingNothing

> From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2...#ixzz2A1WiYpMB
> 
> With almost a third of undecided, this poll is pretty much useless so I wouldn't read too much into it. Not sure why the pollster didn't push leaners at all. Amash campaign manager claims their internal are showing a double digits lead. 
> 
> Still, it's kind of worrying. Amash should have this wrapped up by now in a district like this.


Well, maybe the best Republican representative once Ron Paul steps down would have wrapped this up a long time ago if the Party offered him some support.

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## sailingaway

> Well, maybe the best Republican representative once Ron Paul steps down would have wrapped this up a long time ago if the Party offered him some support.


yeah, but if they didn't I think we thought he was more secure ourselves, and had enough lead to win.  If we need to shout out an alarm to people, Amash would be the guy who was worth it, I would think.

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## DeMintConservative

> Well, maybe the best Republican representative once Ron Paul steps down would have wrapped this up a long time ago if the Party offered him some support.


What kind of support? He isn't getting more or less support than all the other Republican incumbents in similar seats. I don't think the NRCC is spending any money defending seats like MI-3. If they were, then we'd be seeing a Dem takeover of the US House and with a large majority.

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## DeMintConservative

> I really wish they had found a polling company that did not have the initials POS
> 
> 
> Which is credible? We aren't trying to trash him in any way, we are trying to find out if he is less secure than people thought, at this point.
> 
> --
> 
> on the other hand the pollster in the OP is Glengariff Group. Inc. whom I never heard of.  Is this a case of duling 'inside polls' and is that the Dem's private pollster?


Glengariff Group is the Detroit News/WDIV pollster. They're a well-known pollster, who actually tends to work for the GOP than for the DEM. They're working for the NRSC this cycle, for example. If this is an internal, shame on the Detroit News to not report it as such. I don't think it is - even though at first I thought it was considering the high number of undecideds. I have no idea how you have 1/3 of the electorate undecided this late in the game. 

POS is a Rasmussen subsidiary. They're a robo-pollster who works for media and campaigns. They've become pretty popular with Republican candidates this cycle. 

I think this shows Amash will win but it'll be closer than it should and lots of people are open to vote against him. I think this is very troubling for future cycles, with worse fundamentals at a national level.

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## sailingaway

> Glengariff Group is the Detroit News/WDIV pollster. They're a well-known pollster, who actually tends to work for the GOP than for the DEM. They're working for the NRSC this cycle, for example. If this is an internal, shame on the Detroit News to not report it as such. I don't think it is - even though at first I thought it was considering the high number of undecideds. I have no idea how you have 1/3 of the electorate undecided this late in the game. 
> 
> POS is a Rasmussen subsidiary. They're a robo-pollster who works for media and campaigns. They've become pretty popular with Republican candidates this cycle. 
> 
> I think this shows Amash will win but it'll be closer than it should and lots of people are open to vote against him. I think this is very troubling for future cycles, with worse fundamentals at a national level.


I actually know POS, but seeing them referred to that way raised my eyebrows.

OK, well if this is a real poll, Amash needs attention.  I think people relaxed on his after he looked to be kind of cruising in August.

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## LibertyEagle

Oh man, we have to do what we can to help Amash.  It wouldn't be good at all if he lost.

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## DeMintConservative

> I actually know POS, but seeing them referred to that way raised my eyebrows.
> 
> OK, well if this is a real poll, Amash needs attention.  I think people relaxed on his after he looked to be kind of cruising in August.


I misread. POS, not POR. POS is a pollster who works mostly for Republican candidates and committees. POR is the new Rasmussem subsidiary. 

Attention never hurts.

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## NewRightLibertarian

Remember that Bentivolio was down 15 points in a poll announced by either the News or Free Press a week before the primary election and he trounced her. Don't trust these propaganda rags and their fake polling outfits.

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## sailingaway

> I misread. POS, not POR. POS is a pollster who works mostly for Republican candidates and committees. POR is the new Rasmussem subsidiary. 
> 
> Attention never hurts.


Youre thinking of pulse right? So if this isn't them is the bad poll just the internal pollster for the other side ? And if so media doesnt seem to mention it

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## Adrock

We need to help make sure Amash stays in, but I am not too worried about this poll. If his challenger was within striking distance than you would be seeing the outside money pouring in.

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## KCIndy

Well, people, enough with the hand-wringing.  My opinion?  We can't afford to lose Amash.  Remember, Ron Paul will NOT be in Congress next year.

Who else is willing to pony up the price of a pizza dinner in exchange for some freedom?





> Date 	10/23/2012
> Amount 	$25.00 (One Time)
> Transaction ID 	8954a085ba3f40c2adbfaf80430c7e85
> Payment Method 	Credit Card (Visa) 
> Organization 	Justin Amash for Congress


Look, folks - if just 100 people can donate $25, Justin can (according to his web site) pay for a radio ad buy for his district.  

Skip the pizza dinner and sink your teeth into some freedom.

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## Miguel

Always run like your 20 points down, that being said I see so many Amash signs in this district. It's like for every 30 Amash signs there is one for the Dem. We in Michigan are upset at the Libertarian Party for running someone against Amash. Amash supporters are way more enthusiastic than supporters for the Dem. Again always run like your 20 points down.

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## KCIndy

> Always run like your 20 points down, that being said I see so many Amash signs in this district. It's like for every 30 Amash signs there is one for the Dem. We in Michigan are upset at the Libertarian Party for running someone against Amash. Amash supporters are way more enthusiastic than supporters for the Dem. Again always run like your 20 points down.



I hope Amash *does* continue to run like he's 20 points down, no matter what.

The easiest way to lose any fight is through complacency and overconfidence.

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## sailingaway

> Well, people, enough with the hand-wringing.  My opinion?  We can't afford to lose Amash.  Remember, Ron Paul will NOT be in Congress next year.
> 
> Who else is willing to pony up the price of a pizza dinner in exchange for some freedom?
> 
> 
> 
> Look, folks - if just 100 people can donate $25, Justin can (according to his web site) pay for a radio ad buy for his district.  
> 
> Skip the pizza dinner and sink your teeth into some freedom.


RECEIPT DETAILS
Date	10/23/2012
Amount	$25.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID	3867d029441a4f7090e99eba729XXXXX
Payment Method	E-check ending in XXXX
Organization	Justin Amash for Congress

Who next?

here is the webpage: http://www.amashforcongress.com/

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## sailingaway

YAL and Ron's pac sent an email asking for money for a group including Amash, but I would rather donate directly because they also mention Cruz, who isn't on my donations list.

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## KMX

bump for a donation.

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## angelatc

> I hope Amash *does* continue to run like he's 20 points down, no matter what.
> 
> The easiest way to lose any fight is through complacency and overconfidence.


The only people I know that are taking this race for granted are the people here.  As soon as they announced the redistricting, the local politicos said "Uh oh - Amash could be in trouble."

Petska doesn't help that.  He's NOT a loud progressive, special interests protected bully - he's a moderate, pro-life Democrat.  The progressives aren't excited about him, because he's part of the war on womyn in their eyes.




> The specific threat to Amash is that parts of his district had to be removed to strengthen the districts of more favored Republicans, replaced by areas which are more evenly balanced between the parties. This includes giving several towns and suburbs where he won very strong majorities in 2010 to the neighboring 2nd District held by Bill Huizinga and replacing them with parts of Calhoun county which have traditionally voted Democrat.
> 
> The reasoning behind this may be that the libertarian-leaning Amash has the ability to win more independent and crossover votes than an establishment Republican, but it also means that Amash faces a much closer election, has to spend more time fundraising and campaigning, and will therefore be less effective in Congress this year if he wants to remain there after next November. Party leaders are not engineering a guaranteed loss for Amash, but they are dumping as many of their problems as they can in his district while smoothing the way for their cronies, leaving Amash to deal with their mess.


http://blogcritics.org/politics/article/michigan-redistricting-puts-standout-freshman-congressman/page-2/


The Tea-o-con in the UP is also in the same position.  The difference is that he's not a conservative, like Amash, and the Dems are likely going to take that seat back.

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## Lucille

Donated $25.00.

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## Nirvikalpa

> *The only people I know that are taking this race for granted are the people here*.  As soon as they announced the redistricting, the local politicos said "Uh oh - Amash could be in trouble."


This.  +rep.

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## KCIndy

> bump for a donation.


ditto.

Anyone else want to help Justin win this race?  

Anyone want to argue that we DON'T need him in Congress?

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## Libertarian_Renaissance

Wow this isn't good at all.

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## Keith and stuff

For what it is worth. RCP claims this is a Republican polling company. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...stka-3331.html

Justin is the 2nd most pro-liberty person in Congress. Once he wins reelection, he will be the most pro-liberty person in Congress.

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