# Liberty Movement > Liberty Campaigns >  BREAKING: Carl Levin to Retire

## supermario21

> Shannon Bream ‏@ShannonBream
> SenCarlLevin says he won't run in 2014 - wants to govern without the "distraction of campaigning for re-election."



Come on Amash!!

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## TaftFan

http://www.freep.com/article/2013030...un-re-election

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## UtahApocalypse

Well this could mean a lot of work ahead here in Michigan!! wooohooo

I do think Amash may be the best fit.... not sure on timing though.

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## supermario21

The Democrats are going to be going all-in at the state level especially the governor's race. They also have a terrible bench. #StandwithRand happened at a perfect time for Amash to launch a bid for liberty.

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## supermario21

Karl Frisch ‏@KarlFrisch
Sen. Levin (D-MI) is retiring. Let's Draft @JenGranholm! #DraftGranholm2014


After reading this, I want Amash. He could beat Granholm, she was the worst governor.

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## compromise

Since he got purged from the major committees and would probably get the endorsement of Rand, Lee, Cruz and DeMint if he ran, I'd say he should throw his hat in and see how it goes. Maybe he can pull a Ron Johnson and win. Even if he loses his seat in 2020, it'll still be well worth having Senator Amash for 6 years.

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## tsai3904

PPP was going to release a Michigan poll tomorrow with Levin against GOP (PPP tweeted Amash was down by 16).  I'm pretty they will still release GOP primary numbers tomorrow though.

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## supermario21

> PPP was going to release a Michigan poll tomorrow with Levin against GOP (PPP tweeted Amash was down by 16).  I'm pretty they will still release GOP primary numbers tomorrow though.


He was actually the 2nd best polling Republican in the poll, even doing better than Mike Rogers.




> PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
> Levin was up 11 pts on Candice Miller, 15 on Justin Amash, 16 on Mike Rogers, 19 on Bill Schuette, 20 on Roger Kahn in hypothetical matches


The Senate Conservatives Fund has already come out saying they would love Amash to run, as well.

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## Uriah

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Levin was up 11 pts on Candice Miller, 15 on Justin Amash, 16 on Mike Rogers, 19 on Bill Schuette, 20 on Roger Kahn in hypothetical matches


 PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Haha well we had poll numbers coming tomorrow showing that Carl Levin was a cinch for reelection but never mind that!

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## UtahApocalypse

> PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
> 
> Levin was up 11 pts on *Candice Miller*, 15 on Justin Amash, 16 on Mike Rogers, 19 on Bill Schuette, 20 on Roger Kahn in hypothetical matches
> 
> 
>  PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
> 
> Haha well we had poll numbers coming tomorrow showing that Carl Levin was a cinch for reelection but never mind that!




Never heard of her. So I am researching and its juicy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candice_Miller

Voted for CISPA
"On 26 April 2012, Miller voted for the controversial Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act. It passed the House of Representatives,  but did not become law."

Praises Obama
Miller sat on the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and has praised President Obama for his stance on off-shore oil exploration. She supports selling oil and gas leases to help fund the research and development of alternative energy projects.


And the biggest of them all

Admonishment by House Ethics Committee



She should be very easily primaried by Amash if it came down to that.

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## Kregisen

Is there any chance of a Republican winning that senate seat? I have no doubt Amash could win any primary with the Pauls, Lee, and Cruz behind him....but if there's little to no chance at winning the senate seat, would it really be worth it?

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## itshappening

The GOP has won the MI senate seat 3 times in like 60 attempts 

And some of you want Amash to give up his House seat for trying to win it? 

Jesus christ.

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## itshappening

> Is there any chance of a Republican winning that senate seat? I have no doubt Amash could win any primary with the Pauls, Lee, and Cruz behind him....but if there's little to no chance at winning the senate seat, would it really be worth it?


The chance is minimal .  The GOP have a dire record in the last 60 years at winning an MI senate seat.  They've won it maybe 3 times

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## itshappening

> Since he got purged from the major committees and would probably get the endorsement of Rand, Lee, Cruz and DeMint if he ran, I'd say he should throw his hat in and see how it goes. Maybe he can pull a Ron Johnson and win. Even if he loses his seat in 2020, it'll still be well worth having Senator Amash for 6 years.


No he should not  give up his House seat for this, under any circumstances

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## UtahApocalypse

Yes its worth it. Here are several factors; Its a non-presidential cycle meaning much more available funds and volunteers, NO Incumbent means wide open race, Amash would have national liberty movement backing, Michigan elected a Republican Governor this last time around, They already have stripped his House seat of any Key committees or positions making it mostly worthless.

Not only do I think its worth risking his seat to run..... I believe the Senate seat is his to take.


(btw I live in Michigan now so I DO know what it would mean to us living here)

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## Michigan11

If Amash wants to run I am all for it. If Amash does not want to run, let's not push him.

Amash could win with Rand, Lee, Cruz, and other pacs helping him in his campaign if he does decided to run.

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## erowe1

> The GOP has won the MI senate seat 3 times in like 60 attempts


How many of those were open seats?

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## erowe1

> No he should not  give up his House seat for this, under any circumstances


What good is his House seat? They don't even let him on committees.

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## erowe1

> I have no doubt Amash could win any primary with the Pauls, Lee, and Cruz behind him....


I do. The primary could turn out as tough or tougher than the general. If Amash runs, the GOP will pull all the stops. They'll get someone of Engler's caliber to run against him, and their candidate, whoever it is, will get more money.

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## supermario21

This seat hasn't been open for 50 years, if not more, wikipedia doesn't go back that far. The only open seat in the last 30 years has been Abraham (R) winning in 1994.

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## erowe1

> This seat hasn't been open for 50 years, if not more, wikipedia doesn't go back that far. The only open seat in the last 30 years has been Abraham (R) winning in 1994.


And in the last midterm elections, the statewide races, which didn't include US Senate, all went to the Republicans.

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## jkob

If Granholm really was the Democratic nominee then it's possible

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## supermario21

Little bit of history. This seat hasn't been open since a special election in 1952!

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## cindy25

the primary will be the challenge.  2014 will be a huge GOP year

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## Smart3

Senator Granholm sounds good enough to me. 

much better than Levin and all the Repubs likely to run.

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## RickyJ

Great, but for a second there I was thinking it was Mark Levin retiring, so I am slightly disappointed.

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## sailingaway

I'd really like Amash.  What is the timing on when he'd have to declare for the House?

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## Uriah

> I'd really like Amash.  What is the timing on when he'd have to declare for the House?


I believe the filing deadline is May of 2014 with the primary in August. Someone from Michigan correct me if I'm wrong.

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## FSP-Rebel

Itshappening, please stop spreading hysteria about the lack of potential to take this seat and hold it. Amash could easily win a general election because the dems have no one to turn to to take him on, not to mention it's a midterm in the last cycle for the current prez. Turnout is about 1.5 mill lower in off years and the gop here is working on their gotv apparatus to try and save the governor for reelection. They need Amash to bring Snyder the conservative and libertarian votes he'll need to win if the dems/unions are even remotely successful in their operations. Miller was the former sec of state and she did alright there but she's got no caliber to run for senate and she's perform badly with conservatives and libertarians. Amash has already been playing mums-the-word when asked about this but I guarantee last nights performance on the Senate floor by Rand nudged him to see the tide changes and all the notoriety Rand is getting. He's got PAC money lined up and solid endorsements ready to roll. If Rand coasts through this state on his behalf it's game over.

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## supermario21

Spencer Abraham on the left, Justin Amash on the right.

It could work. Both are Arab-Americans which can play well in the Dearborn/Detroit area.

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## Christian Liberty

Is that the world's smallest political quiz?  How do they know how they scored?  I scored 100 in favor of both econ and social liberty.

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## supermario21

No, it's something on ontheissues which is much more complex than the world's smallest quiz.

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## roho76

Oh yeah. Goodie goodie goodie!!!

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## itshappening

> Itshappening, please stop spreading hysteria about the lack of potential to take this seat and hold it. Amash could easily win a general election because the dems have no one to turn to to take him on, not to mention it's a midterm in the last cycle for the current prez. Turnout is about 1.5 mill lower in off years and the gop here is working on their gotv apparatus to try and save the governor for reelection. They need Amash to bring Snyder the conservative and libertarian votes he'll need to win if the dems/unions are even remotely successful in their operations. Miller was the former sec of state and she did alright there but she's got no caliber to run for senate and she's perform badly with conservatives and libertarians. Amash has already been playing mums-the-word when asked about this but I guarantee last nights performance on the Senate floor by Rand nudged him to see the tide changes and all the notoriety Rand is getting. He's got PAC money lined up and solid endorsements ready to roll. If Rand coasts through this state on his behalf it's game over.


Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.  You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.

It would be the dumbest political move of the century.

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## supermario21

> Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.  You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.
> 
> It would be the dumbest political move of the century.


I don't want to agree with you...but deep down I'm pretty sure you're right. Labor is going to be out in force in 2014 and that's what scares me most, not the overall bent of the state. But Amash is somewhat similar to Pat Buchanan, who would probably carry Michigan in terms of Reagan Democrats.

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## RP Supporter

Much as I'd like to see a senator Amash, it will be very tough, and I'm not sure the risk is worth the reward. I don't think it's impossible. The Dems have a thin bench, and most of their big names are pretty old. And in a 2010 sort of environment, I think he would win, and the midterms of a second term president are almost always bad for the party in the whitehouse. That said, Obama remains reasonably popular, and it's hard to say if 2014 will have the sort of populist anger that would be needed to make  a bluestate like Michigan competitive.

Not sure if this was posted, but PPP tweeted that Levin was beating Amash by 15 points. That's pretty decent I think, considering how long term Levin had been there. If we assume that any new Dem would not do that well, it's probably reasonably a single digit race. But making it competitive and winning are two different things. My advice to Representative Amash is to wait a few months, see what the fields look like, do some private polling, and see if this is a race that he can win. If it's not, it's better for him not to make the jump.

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## Brett85

I still think it's a bad idea for Amash to run for the Senate when Michigan is a Democratic state.  I think it's better for Amash to stay in his house district, which he shouldn't ever have any trouble winning.

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## Brett85

> Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.  You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.
> 
> It would be the dumbest political move of the century.


I wouldn't go as far as saying that Michigan will never elect a small government conservative to the Senate, but it seems unlikely they will, and it doesn't seem worth the risk for Amash.

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## UtahApocalypse

How many of you naysayers actually luve here in Michigan? How many here talk to Michigan residents daily and know what way the current political wind blows?

I do and can say its worth it. Not only worth it but likely victory. It will not be easy, but far from the impossibility some are making it. Honestly the primary would be more taxing then the general election.

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## EBounding

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index....arl_levin.html

Given that it's an open seat and given that the strongest Dem competitor right now is Doughy Peters, I'd say it's worth it.

I know some would rather have Justin keep his House seat, but the fact is, he's not going to influence the debate there unless we get a substantial number of other liberty representatives elected.  Getting that many "liberty reps" elected is much less likely than Amash winning the Senate in Michigan, in my opinion.  Rand has proven the power of the Senate even when he's the lone no vote.  The primary worries though.  I wish we had a caucus system.  

Michigan does have an entitlement mentality, but it's not like its Massachusetts or anything.  Justin could position himself as an independent and someone like Peters would be revealed as just Obama's lapdog.

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## CaptLouAlbano

> I still think it's a bad idea for Amash to run for the Senate when Michigan is a Democratic state.  I think it's better for Amash to stay in his house district, which he shouldn't ever have any trouble winning.


Agreed.  The risk/reward factor for this isn't on Amash's side.  He's got a nice spot in the House and with time can move up the ladder.  We give him a few dozen more allies over the next two election cycles and he could very well be in a leadership position. Winning the MI Senate seat is such a long shot.  Levin has been retaining his seat by 20+ points and will likely campaign for the Dem nominee.  

The Liberty Movement needs to choose its battles wisely.  A third of the Senate will be up for grabs in 2014, there will be plenty of races where we will be competitive and have a realistic shot at winning the seat.  Amash should stay put and keep building the coalition in the House.

Now, if you have a libertarian conservative in the MI state senate that can take a run at the seat, I am all for it.  But there's little, if any reason, to put Amash up for the seat.

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## erowe1

> Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.  You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.
> 
> It would be the dumbest political move of the century.


1) A lot of those elections were Levin winning reelection. Incumbent senators tend to get reelected, whatever their party is, whatever state they're in, and the longer they're there, the easier it usually is to keep winning.
2) In all statewide elections in recent years, Republicans and Democrats have both won a lot and lost a lot.
3) It seems like you want Amash to stay in the House forever. If he's going to move up, this is an opportunity to go for it that he might not get for a long time.

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## erowe1

> Agreed.  The risk/reward factor for this isn't on Amash's side.  He's got a nice spot in the House and with time can move up the ladder.  We give him a few dozen more allies over the next two election cycles and he could very well be in a leadership position. Winning the MI Senate seat is such a long shot.


I'd say Amash winning this senate seat is a lot less of a long shot than giving him a few dozen more allies in the House over the next two election cycles is.

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## TCE

It's been proven over time. The Liberty Movement can handle one big undertaking, such as a Senate seat, per cycle, tops. If this is what we're going with, it's time to forget about South Carolina, Kentucky, and all of those other open/competitive seats. Pete Hoekstra raised over $5 million just to get destroyed by Debbie Stabenow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Michigan,_2012 This will take AT LEAST $5 million, probably more, to win. Is the support there? Does Amash actually have a chance if he does get the money? We will find out in the coming months.

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## TCE

> I'd say Amash winning this senate seat is a lot less of a long shot than giving him a few dozen more allies in the House over the next two election cycles is.


There is a difference between playing the odds and giving up a House seat for the sake of it. It's one thing if he has a strong chance to win the open Senate seat, if he doesn't, then he would be giving up his House seat for no reason. Why go backwards unnecessarily when it took a ton to get him there in the first place?

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## CaptLouAlbano

> I'd say Amash winning this senate seat is a lot less of a long shot than giving him a few dozen more allies in the House over the next two election cycles is.


How so?  You have a 20 point spread to overcome based on Levin's numbers.  Conversely, you have a ton of open seats coming up in 2014 for the House.  We added a nice group in 2012, and can continue to do so with each subsequent election cycle, as we have CD's across the country that are becoming controlled (at the county level) by libertarian Republicans within county committees.

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## CaptLouAlbano

> It's been proven over time. The Liberty Movement can handle one big undertaking, such as a Senate seat, per cycle, tops. If this is what we're going with, it's time to forget about South Carolina, Kentucky, and all of those other open/competitive seats. Pete Hoekstra raised over $5 million just to get destroyed by Debbie Stabenow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Michigan,_2012 This will take AT LEAST $5 million, probably more, to win. Is the support there? Does Amash actually have a chance if he does get the money? We will find out in the coming months.


Right, think of all the push that was done on this site and others for Bills, yet he only raised one million, versus Klobuchar who raised 10 times that amount.

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## erowe1

> How so?  You have a 20 point spread to overcome based on Levin's numbers.


You can't base it on Levin's numbers. Levin was the incumbent senator. This is an open seat. Compare it with the numbers in the 2010 statewide races, which Republicans won.




> We added a nice group in 2012, and can continue to do so with each subsequent election cycle, as we have CD's across the country that are becoming controlled (at the county level) by libertarian Republicans within county committees.


We added how many in 2012? 2? 4? Depending who you count. Let's say it's 4 and we repeat that the next two election cycles, that brings his allies in the House up to about 5% of the Republican caucus. He won't be winning a leadership position with that.

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## CaptLouAlbano

> You can't base it on Levin's numbers. Levin was the incumbent senator. This is an open seat. Compare it with the numbers in the 2010 statewide races, which Republicans won.


Ok I will give you that, but I still see it as a huge obstacle to overcome.  Not worth the risk.  I personally, cannot justify dumping 2500 bucks into a Senate race that is a long shot.  That's why Bills didn't get a dime from me, despite the endorsements he received.




> We added how many in 2012? 2? 4? Depending who you count. Let's say it's 4 and we repeat that the next two election cycles, that brings his allies in the House up to about 5% of the Republican caucus. He won't be winning a leadership position with that.


Snowball effect.  We have more people getting elected to local committee seats this year than we did last year.  Committees are where it all begins, as the committee men and women have the ability to steer hundreds if not thousands of votes to a a particular candidate.  If we did 4 this year, we can do 8 to 12 next, and double that in 2016.  In addition, the liberty movement grows two ways: one is obviously by electing more of our guys to office, but the second way is by influencing elected officials that are already in office.  Many politicians, as you well know, will vote whichever way the wind is blowing.  We make sure that the wind is blowing in our direction, and our influence steers the votes of others.  Take McConnell in KY for example.  Do you honestly think he would have come out in favor of industrial hemp were it not for Rand?

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## EBounding

> It's been proven over time. The Liberty Movement can handle one big undertaking, such as a Senate seat, per cycle, tops. If this is what we're going with, it's time to forget about South Carolina, Kentucky, and all of those other open/competitive seats. Pete Hoekstra raised over $5 million just to get destroyed by Debbie Stabenow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Michigan,_2012 This will take AT LEAST $5 million, probably more, to win. Is the support there? Does Amash actually have a chance if he does get the money? We will find out in the coming months.


Pete Hoekstra was awful.  Plus he had to fight a somewhat competitive primary and was up against a Dem incumbent.  And it's pretty bad when the Dem can run to the right of you since she opposed TARP.  And this was all during a Presidential year when Obamanous Prime rolled through again.  If the seat wasn't open I would say no way.  

If people are comfortable with Justin being the only liberty vote in the House with maybe 5 other people, then he should hold the seat.  But I think it's worth the chance.  Justin won't only have the support of "Ron Paul people" but also Club for Growth, Tea Party groups and other grassroots activists who are tired of the old guard.

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## kathy88

So interesting who the naysayers are on this.

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## CaptLouAlbano

> So interesting who the naysayers are on this.


It's the issue of picking our battles.  For Amash to win MI, he would need to win the primary (which could be costly) and the general (which will be costly).  Failing to do either costs him his House seat.

Politics is like business, you have to assess the risk vs. the reward, and the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome.  While it would be nice to have Amash win the MI Senate seat, as I assess the situation at hand, I see the likelihood of that being very small.  So small, in fact that I would have a very hard time supporting it financially. 

Amash is too valuable to lose him to a failed Senate bid.  Find me a State Senator in MI that can win statewide, and we very well might have something to support financially.  I donate a lot of money every year to campaigns, but even with the 10's of thousands I send out, there still is a limit to what I spend - just like every other financial decision, I have to assess whether or not my money is well spent.  As I mentioned I didn't give a dime to Bills, even though I thought he was a great candidate.  He just had ZERO chance of winning, so why spend the money on him, when I could instead give it to another candidate that could actually use that money to produce results.

And of course, we have no idea if Amash is even considering running for the seat.  His people, are likely doing the very same thing - assessing the risk vs the reward, and basing their decision on that information and data.

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## supermario21

To be honest, the pulpit of a Senate seat is worth at least 20 house seats. Look at what Rand Paul (and Mike Lee and yes, Ted Cruz) was able to achieve. Also, since Michigan will be on paper a longer shot than say an Iowa, we might as well go for it there. It will be easier to get our guy in Michigan than probably going through a bloody primary in Iowa for example. Let the establishment focus on flipping seats in AR, IA, WV, SD, and MT, and AL (sorry but Joe Miller is a damaged good) and we can focus on Amash, Brannon, and whoever primaries Lindsey.

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## roho76

> Karl Frisch ‏@KarlFrisch
> Sen. Levin (D-MI) is retiring. Let's Draft @JenGranholm! #DraftGranholm2014
> 
> 
> After reading this, I want Amash. He could beat Granholm, she was the worst governor.


*OMG!!! NO!!!!!!*

This must be prevented at all costs!!!

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## roho76

> Senator Granholm sounds good enough to me. 
> 
> much better than Levin and all the Repubs likely to run.

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## roho76

> 1) A lot of those elections were Levin winning reelection. Incumbent senators tend to get reelected, whatever their party is, whatever state they're in, and the longer they're there, the easier it usually is to keep winning.
> 2) In all statewide elections in recent years, Republicans and Democrats have both won a lot and lost a lot.
> 3) It seems like you want Amash to stay in the House forever. If he's going to move up, this is an opportunity to go for it that he might not get for a long time.


Exactly. Levin also was first elected in a time that MI went through a very tough time. He assumed office in the height of the oil crisis of the late 70's and early 80's. Big time for Dems in MI. I think that's changed and a R can easily win.

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## KingNothing

> Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.



Anything could happen.  Especially when an honest, intelligent, man has the financial support of a motivated Libertarian/Conservative base that spreads all across the nation.

Most people in America are not Progressives, or Neocons, or Tea Partiers, or voting Democrats or voting Republicans.  Most people either don't vote, or only show up to cast a ballot when they have a chance to do so for person they like and trust most.  With money, honesty, charm, money, money, intelligence, more money, and money, why couldn't Amash win Levin's seat?

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## CaptLouAlbano

At the risk of veering slightly off topic, I think the liberty movement as a whole needs to work on building the farm team at the state level, as opposed to using the House as a means to "promote" someone to the Senate.

I am, and have always been, a big supporter of the repeal of the 17th Amendment.  And while that issue is far from being one that is on the table at this time, as a movement, we can at least put that somewhat into practice by having our candidates for US Senate come from the state legislature.  It's one of the reasons, I am very pleased to see Bright possibly going after Graham in SC instead of someone like Mick Mulvaney.

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## Uriah

> Agreed.  The risk/reward factor for this isn't on Amash's side. * He's got a nice spot in the House and with time can move up the ladder.  We give him a few dozen more allies over the next two election cycles and he could very well be in a leadership position.* Winning the MI Senate seat is such a long shot.  Levin has been retaining his seat by 20+ points and will likely campaign for the Dem nominee.  
> 
> The Liberty Movement needs to choose its battles wisely.  A third of the Senate will be up for grabs in 2014, there will be plenty of races where we will be competitive and have a realistic shot at winning the seat.  Amash should stay put and keep building the coalition in the House.
> 
> Now, if you have a libertarian conservative in the MI state senate that can take a run at the seat, I am all for it.  But there's little, if any reason, to put Amash up for the seat.


When exactly is a good time to move up the ladder? 

If a Democrat takes the seat in 2014 it will be much harder to win later. Are you banking on Sen. Stabenow retiring soon?  Are you certain we can give him a few more dozen allies in the house?

A few dozen, so something like 36-60 within two elections cycles. Sounds great but what districts are you talking about and who will run for those seats? How many incumbents will be challenged? It is true that Levin has been winning by large margins. But he is an incumbent with a large political machine behind him. This Senate seat will be open.

As to winning Senate seats elsewhere, can you be specific? Iowa for instance, has a great grassroots base, but as an Iowan I know we do not have a high caliber liberty candidate to win the US Senate, especially if Steve King runs. If Steve King announces then mark Iowa off of you list.

Your advice is supported more by speculation than fact.

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## KingNothing

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.  Will we ever have a better opportunity than this?

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## supermario21

In Michigan, we already have a champion of liberty who is also very popular with the Senate conservatives fund, which is anti-establishment. The party will be focused most heavily on WV, SD, AK, AR, LA, and MT. We can work on 3 seats, Brannon, Amash, and Bright. That doesn't drain us of resources and these are the 3 best candidates who can tap into the grassroots. Everybody hates Lindsey, people will rally around Brannon and Amash is already well-known in conservative and libertarian circles. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for a Republican to win a Michigan Senate seat.

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## KingNothing

> To be honest, the pulpit of a Senate seat is worth at least 20 house seats.



It's worth much, much more than that.  In the Senate one man with courage really can be a majority.  In the House, he's just a gadfly.  What Ron showed is that it takes a lifetime of amazing personal achievement and noble acts of principle to make a big impact in the House.  What we've seen from Rand is that one man can really shine an infinitely brighter light on the sorry nature of the Washington establishment from the Senate, in a much shorter period of time.  

The House is where we build and sustain the movement, the Senate is where we bring about political change.

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## EBounding

And arguably, much of what Ron accomplished wasn't necessarily because he was a Congressman; it was because he ran for President.

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## CaptLouAlbano

> When exactly is a good time to move up the ladder? 
> 
> If a Democrat takes the seat in 2014 it will be much harder to win later. Are you banking on Sen. Stabenow retiring soon?  Are you certain we can give him a few more dozen allies in the house?
> 
> A few dozen, so something like 36-60 within two elections cycles. Sounds great but what districts are you talking about and who will run for those seats? How many incumbents will be challenged? It is true that Levin has been winning by large margins. But he is an incumbent with a large political machine behind him. This Senate seat will be open.
> 
> As to winning Senate seats elsewhere, can you be specific? Iowa for instance, has a great grassroots base, but as an Iowan I know we do not have a high caliber liberty candidate to win the US Senate, especially if Steve King runs. If Steve King announces then mark Iowa off of you list.
> 
> Your advice is supported more by speculation than fact.


When I was referring to moving up the ladder, I meant in terms of seniority and potentially leadership within the House.  Read my post #58 for what I believe we should be focusing on when it comes to the US Senate.  

I think we essentially, dilute our effectiveness when we move people from the House to the Senate.  Granted a Senator has far more power than a House member, but we need to build our coalition in both chambers to achieve success.  Ultimately we want to see 26 Liberty Republicans in the Senate and 218 in the House. We need to build on both fronts. 

If MI was a red state like SC, I would be far more supportive of a "draft Amash" effort, but looking at the voting trends in the state, I am not confident that the effort would be fruitful.  I pick and choose my battles and where my money goes each election cycle.  And at this juncture, I cannot see myself writing a $5000 check to Amash should he decide to pursue the Senate seat.

----------


## KingNothing

I have to say, this has been the most heartening week for me since the polls came out which showed Ron leading in Iowa.  I mean this without a hint of hyperbole -- we are winning!  The old guard of the Republican party is dying.  The hypocrisy of the Left has been put on full display.  And this is happening MUCH more rapidly than I ever expected.  

If Amash can continue to stand on principle and continue to push issues that really ARE popular, he can wage one helluva battle for Levin's seat in Michigan.

----------


## Pisces

I know this has been mentioned before, but its interesting that the people who actually live in Michigan are much more positive about Amash's chances. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they actually live in Michigan. I don't live in Michigan but I would love it if Justin ran for Senate, especially now that McCain has singled him out as one of the top three "wacko birds" along with Rand and Cruz. (Justin should probably send McCain a thank you note for that.)

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it.  You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.
> 
> It would be the dumbest political move of the century.


First off, let me preface my points by saying that I totally understand our finite resources and if Bright goes up against Graham I think that would be a more worthwhile effort (if we can only pick one) because it's an unquestionable red state and taking out the scumbag would boost moral through the roof as well as send a shocking message in regards to our movement's growing influence and strength. I can't speak on LFA's part as they have hinted their interests in funding both JAmash and the primary opponent to Mitch (which I disagree with).

Regarding MI in 2014, yes the unions will be doing all they can to defeat republicans from top to bottom but it's not as if the republicans will sit idly by and allow their majorities to go up in smoke. Despite my lack of enthusiasm for our current chair, the man can raise absurd amounts of money plus it's rumored that Devos will be dropping some serious coin up here on our behalf. While you constantly hang on to nostalgia by regurgitating your mantra of the past 50 years of Senatorial success (or lack thereof) by republicans, the state has gradually changed over that time especially during my lifetime. Detroit was once a booming metropolis yet now it can be defined as just a big city w/ no where near the staying power it once had in terms of inner city votes or importance. The way that city has been ran into the ground actually entices suburban opinion to defer to the Governor as far as attempting to get the city's budget in order and he knows this. As the city has been depleted in revenue, size and population its affect on the state's political body has diminished by half or more over the last 10-15 years. Now, the state senate has a republican majority 26-11 as does the state house 59-51 despite Obama's reelection efforts and Stabenow's manhandling of Hoekstra.

I will grant that prez years here feature democratic strength over republicans and I'm not sure if that's due to lack of excitement in the republican isle for their statewide candidates or perhaps it's that coupled with the incumbent reelection rates. Although I didn't expound on this as much in my original post I have mentioned the midterm dynamics in other threads about JAmash's chances. My main concern is the likely primary but if there's more than 2 people running JAmash would fare well as his supporters would be uniting and the remaining block would be split. Rogers is strong in the state central area, Miller is fairly well known yet watching her speak is about as exciting as folding socks yet both could raise decent amounts of money. Of course, so could we over and above the PACs. Alone, he raised over a million just for his reelection and that could easily be doubled at least or more. Hoekstra and his people may have spent $5mil against Stabenow but quite frankly no amount of money could rescue him from the conservative/libertarian defection let alone be enough to take on an entrenched incumbent in a presidential year.

As I've stated in other threads, the 2010 gubernatorial election turnout was ~3.25 mil and the 2012 prez election turnout was ~4.7 mil plus whatever Johnson, the Greens, CP, Natural Law got and we'll never know the RP write-ins. No matter the GOTV efforts by either side in 2014, the midterm turnout will most likely mirror the 2010 turnout in a similar fashion with perhaps an extra 100k or so. The dems' problem is that they need to come up with 2 top notch candidates to take on Snyder and retake the open Senate seat yet all I've seen in the rumor mill is back benchers that have a lot of heavy lifting to do to even mount a respectable showing. JAmash is on equal footing if not better than any dem they throw up since he has nationwide donors outside of PACs. Despite the RTW issue and the unions' pumping up their chests, they got their ass handed to them as they spent a fortune pushing the two recent ballot proposals to institutionalize collective bargaining for private and public workers into the state constitution and got waxed even tho Stabenow won big and Obama did well meaning that over 500k dems (~20% of all dem voters) voted against the unions. So, with this in mind, lower midterm turnout, undoubtedly this election favoring republicans nationwide and usually the GOP fares well in recent times in MI in midterms I'd say that this will be a republican grab when you factor in the Governor's reelection efforts. Not to mention, the conservative/libertarian grassroots comprised 48% of the republican party per its recent state convention if we take the state chair race into account and that's with quite a few of our people either sitting out or non-committed for whatever reason. Also regarding this race, it took $300k to produce the 52% turnout for the establishment with a mere $10k turning out the grassroots delegates. Even if we don't take this chair race into account, we went from having 0 on the state central committee to having 16/91 explicitly pro-liberty members with likely double or triple conservative-leaning members meaning that coalitions built in the state central body can be made against the establishment wing in the overall scheme of things thus showcasing a monumental shift in the landscape of the state party apparatus. So, a leaning republican midterm bolstered by a gubernatorial reelection against dem back benchers w/ a much more conservative makeup of the party itself coupled with a general dissatisfaction for establishment types brewing on the right and we have a perfect storm to win an open Senate seat w/ someone who the vast majority of the conservative grassroots could be excited by, unlike a Hoekstra. Plus, if Snyder and team have a brain in their head, they'd realize this excitement factor could only benefit them in their beneficial reelection status in a non-prez election.

I appreciate all the concerns people have about this race but I wanted to provide at least a semi-comprehensive examination of all the dynamics that come to mind in this race be it the midterm status, the inflated impression of what the dems can pull off here in said election, the growing influence of the grassroots in the state party as well as in all district parties across the state and the overall shift of the state from what it was once known overwhelmingly for. Yes, JAmash has a safe House seat but I'd say it would be hard to envision a better opportunity for the likes of one of our own to jump to the Senate under different circumstances. I'd venture to say that even the likes of Rogers or Miller could win this on the heels of the Governor's reelection but then we'll be stuck with the likes of another McCain or Graham here in MI thus minimizing any gains made out of SC. If JAmash doesn't run for this, whether the dem or rep win the seat they'll be entrenched for their reelection down the line and Stabenow ain't going anywhere anytime soon. Therefore, if JAmash sees what I see here on the ground he should go for it.

----------


## Uriah

@CaptLouAlbano

I appreciate your opinion. You make a good case. I do not know all the numbers of Michigan in detail but if Amash decides to run then I will support him. I think he is smart enough to know if he can win the seat or not. If I were to make a donation I would evaluate the race before I do so.

It is my opinion that Michigan is moving to the right. Although, it certainly still has the lead in registered Democrats. I see potential of winning this seat.

I am in agreement with you on building leaders in both the House and Senate. To veer off topic, should we as a national movement be recruiting candidates to run for US House seats? I know YAL is doing this to some extent and people like myself in local races. But should we, as an online community, form a working group that identifies the most winnable House seats and then finds a candidate for that race?

----------


## tsai3904

I actually like Amash in the House.  He is leading the anti-establishment charge and you only need probably 20 or so allies to be a pain in their *ss.  Some say that the Senate position is more visible but I think what Amash has done on social media is nearly as prominent as what he could gain as being a Senator.  Amash has a huge following and every vote explanation gets him more likes and more follows.  The House voted 659 times while the Senate only voted 251 times in 2012.  People look to Amash's Facebook page to understand what Congress is doing and I think he would lose that prominence by either running and becoming a Senator or running and losing.  Also, it's a lot easier to build a consistent voting record while in the House since they vote on so many bills and because most of the Senate's votes are on nominations or procedural stuff like cloture.

----------


## CaptLouAlbano

> To veer off topic, should we as a national movement be recruiting candidates to run for US House seats? I know YAL is doing this to some extent and people like myself in local races. But should we, as an online community, form a working group that identifies the most winnable House seats and then finds a candidate for that race?


Historically, to win a House seat one needs to be either involved politically at the local level (county commissioner, state rep, etc) or to be a prominent business/civic leader.  Most people do not go from obscurity to winning a House seat.  Take Bentivolio for example: he was a teacher in his CD for 15 years, ran for (and lost) a State Senate seat and then won the House seat - there's some experience both politically and civilly there to be considered.  

So yes, we do need to identify people, but typically the cream rises to the top and we will see that from those who are already involved in state and local government.

As far as identifying winnable seats that should be something that is done.  The easiest seats to win are open seats in a strong GOP district (since all one needs to do is win the primary).  Those should be priority one and then followed by open seats in swing CD's, seats where the GOP incumbent is weakened (but it is a strong GOP CD), etc.  We need to be smart, and not focus solely on what would be nice, but what would be practical.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> You can't base it on Levin's numbers. Levin was the incumbent senator. This is an open seat. Compare it with the numbers in the 2010 statewide races, which Republicans won.
> 
> 
> We added how many in 2012? 2? 4? Depending who you count. Let's say it's 4 and we repeat that the next two election cycles, that brings his allies in the House up to about 5% of the Republican caucus. He won't be winning a leadership position with that.


Probably not to thrust Amash into a leadership position, but we'd start the dominoes falling around Boehnor.  Had we another 5-6 votes during his speakership vote it would've snowballed.  A lot of people sat on the sidelines seeing if a creditable challenge would blossom.  

Liberty candidate might only be 5%, but sometimes 5% is enough to be the catalyst for an explosive reaction.

----------


## UtahApocalypse

If Amash decides to run will you naysayers support him or let his failure be a self Fulfilling prophecy?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> So interesting who the naysayers are on this.


It has nothing to do about that.  I'm one of the most Rah-Rah cheerleaders here.  It's about playing the game smart and not going all in when you're holding a pair of 2s.

----------


## tsai3904

> If Amash decides to run will you naysayers support him or let his failure be a self Fulfilling prophecy?


What's with calling people "naysayers"?  Can we not have a friendly debate about the risks/rewards of running for Senate?  You do understand that everyone here likes Amash A LOT right?

----------


## CaptLouAlbano

> If Amash decides to run will you naysayers support him or let his failure be a self Fulfilling prophecy?


I'd have to see some seriously good polling numbers before I cut a check to him.  I referenced the Bills race last year - to me that was a black hole for money that could have been used elsewhere.  People are of course free to do whatever they choose with their money, but I'll be damned if I am going to give it to a candidate that is trailing miserably in the polls.

----------


## itshappening

> You can't base it on Levin's numbers. Levin was the incumbent senator. This is an open seat. Compare it with the numbers in the 2010 statewide races, which Republicans won.
> 
> 
> We added how many in 2012? 2? 4? Depending who you count. Let's say it's 4 and we repeat that the next two election cycles, that brings his allies in the House up to about 5% of the Republican caucus. He won't be winning a leadership position with that.


*sigh*

the kind of Republicans who won in 2010 in MI are like chalk and cheese to Amash who is an unabashed small govt conservative. 

The kind of Republican that actually wins in MI are big government pandering moderates and Snyder is independently wealthy and was running against a corrupt administration so it was fairly easy.  

That doesn't mean they're going to send a libertarian to the U.S Senate.  They never have and never will.  It's very easy to see this by looking at the history of who they have elected to those Senate seats over the last 60 YEARS.  And you think Amash can buck this trend?! WHY?!

----------


## supermario21

Spencer Abraham was labeled an extremist, and fought back against Ronna ROMNEY (Mitt's former sister-in-law) in 1994 over abortion for example and won.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...ham+1994&hl=en

Also read this article below, Spencer Abraham sure sounds like Justin Amash 20 years ahead of time.


http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...m+romney&hl=en

----------


## itshappening

> Spencer Abraham was labeled an extremist, and fought back against Ronna ROMNEY (Mitt's former sister-in-law) in 1994 over abortion for example and won.
> 
> http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...ham+1994&hl=en
> 
> Also read this article below, Spencer Abraham sure sounds like Justin Amash 20 years ahead of time.
> 
> 
> http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...m+romney&hl=en


It's still far too risky.  We should stick to electing conservatives in the red states.  MI is just too risky when you look at the history of who and what wins there.  

Not only would he need millions to campaign statewide but he'd have to fight an organized labor turnout machine in the home of organized labor no less.

Really dumb idea when he has a safe 55/45 seat for at least a decade which he has to give up for this?! He's 32 remember and would be stupid to lose him to a senate bid that some machine Democrat is likely to win.

The machine Democrat running against Amash and all his votes against liberal legislation they will be licking their lips and will bury him.  If you think he can win against the torrent of negative ads and a pumped up turnout machine then you obviously have more faith than I do.

----------


## CaptLouAlbano

There's 26 State Senators in MI.  Does anyone have info on any of them that would be a decent choice to go for the seat?  Possibly someone who would not risk losing their seat if they failed?

----------


## supermario21

> It's still far too risky.  We should stick to electing conservatives in the red states.  MI is just too risky when you look at the history of who and what wins there.  
> 
> Not only would he need millions to campaign statewide but he'd have to fight an organized labor turnout machine in the home of organized labor no less.
> 
> Really dumb idea when he has a safe 55/45 seat for at least a decade which he has to give up for this?! He's 32 remember and would be stupid to lose him to a senate bid that some machine Democrat is likely to win.
> 
> The machine Democrat running against Amash and all his votes against liberal legislation they will be licking their lips and will bury him.  If you think he can win against the torrent of negative ads and a pumped up turnout machine then you obviously have more faith than I do.


Pumped up turnout machine? For whom? There is no Obama this time to get the Detroiters to go vote.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> First off, let me preface my points by saying that I totally understand our finite resources and if Bright goes up against Graham I think that would be a more worthwhile effort (if we can only pick one) because it's an unquestionable red state and taking out the scumbag would boost moral through the roof as well as send a shocking message in regards to our movement's growing influence and strength. I can't speak on LFA's part as they have hinted their interests in funding both JAmash and the primary opponent to Mitch (which I disagree with).
> 
> Regarding MI in 2014, yes the unions will be doing all they can to defeat republicans from top to bottom but it's not as if the republicans will sit idly by and allow their majorities to go up in smoke. Despite my lack of enthusiasm for our current chair, the man can raise absurd amounts of money plus it's rumored that Devos will be dropping some serious coin up here on our behalf. While you constantly hang on to nostalgia by regurgitating your mantra of the past 50 years of Senatorial success (or lack thereof) by republicans, the state has gradually changed over that time especially during my lifetime. Detroit was once a booming metropolis yet now it can be defined as just a big city w/ no where near the staying power it once had in terms of inner city votes or importance. The way that city has been ran into the ground actually entices suburban opinion to defer to the Governor as far as attempting to get the city's budget in order and he knows this. As the city has been depleted in revenue, size and population its affect on the state's political body has diminished by half or more over the last 10-15 years. Now, the state senate has a republican majority 26-11 as does the state house 59-51 despite Obama's reelection efforts and Stabenow's manhandling of Hoekstra.
> 
> I will grant that prez years here feature democratic strength over republicans and I'm not sure if that's due to lack of excitement in the republican isle for their statewide candidates or perhaps it's that coupled with the incumbent reelection rates. Although I didn't expound on this as much in my original post I have mentioned the midterm dynamics in other threads about JAmash's chances. My main concern is the likely primary but if there's more than 2 people running JAmash would fare well as his supporters would be uniting and the remaining block would be split. Rogers is strong in the state central area, Miller is fairly well known yet watching her speak is about as exciting as folding socks yet both could raise decent amounts of money. Of course, so could we over and above the PACs. Alone, he raised over a million just for his reelection and that could easily be doubled at least or more. Hoekstra and his people may have spent $5mil against Stabenow but quite frankly no amount of money could rescue him from the conservative/libertarian defection let alone be enough to take on an entrenched incumbent in a presidential year.
> 
> As I've stated in other threads, the 2010 gubernatorial election turnout was ~3.25 mil and the 2012 prez election turnout was ~4.7 mil plus whatever Johnson, the Greens, CP, Natural Law got and we'll never know the RP write-ins. No matter the GOTV efforts by either side in 2014, the midterm turnout will most likely mirror the 2010 turnout in a similar fashion with perhaps an extra 100k or so. The dems' problem is that they need to come up with 2 top notch candidates to take on Snyder and retake the open Senate seat yet all I've seen in the rumor mill is back benchers that have a lot of heavy lifting to do to even mount a respectable showing. JAmash is on equal footing if not better than any dem they throw up since he has nationwide donors outside of PACs. Despite the RTW issue and the unions' pumping up their chests, they got their ass handed to them as they spent a fortune pushing the two recent ballot proposals to institutionalize collective bargaining for private and public workers into the state constitution and got waxed even tho Stabenow won big and Obama did well meaning that over 500k dems (~20% of all dem voters) voted against the unions. So, with this in mind, lower midterm turnout, undoubtedly this election favoring republicans nationwide and usually the GOP fares well in recent times in MI in midterms I'd say that this will be a republican grab when you factor in the Governor's reelection efforts. Not to mention, the conservative/libertarian grassroots comprised 48% of the republican party per its recent state convention if we take the state chair race into account and that's with quite a few of our people either sitting out or non-committed for whatever reason. Also regarding this race, it took $300k to produce the 52% turnout for the establishment with a mere $10k turning out the grassroots delegates. Even if we don't take this chair race into account, we went from having 0 on the state central committee to having 16/91 explicitly pro-liberty members with likely double or triple conservative-leaning members meaning that coalitions built in the state central body can be made against the establishment wing in the overall scheme of things thus showcasing a monumental shift in the landscape of the state party apparatus. So, a leaning republican midterm bolstered by a gubernatorial reelection against dem back benchers w/ a much more conservative makeup of the party itself coupled with a general dissatisfaction for establishment types brewing on the right and we have a perfect storm to win an open Senate seat w/ someone who the vast majority of the conservative grassroots could be excited by, unlike a Hoekstra. Plus, if Snyder and team have a brain in their head, they'd realize this excitement factor could only benefit them in their beneficial reelection status in a non-prez election.
> 
> I appreciate all the concerns people have about this race but I wanted to provide at least a semi-comprehensive examination of all the dynamics that come to mind in this race be it the midterm status, the inflated impression of what the dems can pull off here in said election, the growing influence of the grassroots in the state party as well as in all district parties across the state and the overall shift of the state from what it was once known overwhelmingly for. Yes, JAmash has a safe House seat but I'd say it would be hard to envision a better opportunity for the likes of one of our own to jump to the Senate under different circumstances. I'd venture to say that even the likes of Rogers or Miller could win this on the heels of the Governor's reelection but then we'll be stuck with the likes of another McCain or Graham here in MI thus minimizing any gains made out of SC. If JAmash doesn't run for this, whether the dem or rep win the seat they'll be entrenched for their reelection down the line and Stabenow ain't going anywhere anytime soon. Therefore, if JAmash sees what I see here on the ground he should go for it.


You always provide valuable insight.  It is very much appreciated.  I'm cautious for it being Michigan for one, and I'm not sure if we could raise the amount of money it would take to fund multiple liberty candidates at 5 million each.  Do we focus like a laser beam, raise 10 million, and take out someone like Graham; or do we fund multiple races and risk losing them all?  Tough call.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> What's with calling people "naysayers"?  Can we not have a friendly debate about the risks/rewards of running for Senate?  You do understand that everyone here likes Amash A LOT right?


We're all on the same side here so let's dispense with the name calling.  We're merely discussing strategy.

----------


## TCE

Yes, as a matter of fact, I do know a thing or two about Michigan. Or would you prefer a picture of me wearing my Calvin Johnson jersey or my Matthew Stafford for proof?  The best thing we can do is look at the poll numbers and go from there. If a bunch of high-powered Republicans or some very popular Democrats come out of the woodwork and many of the polls show Amash having little chance, it is time to cut our losses and leave Amash in the Senate. If the polls show him running competitively, then go for it. Levin retires and within a day, people are already calling others "naysayers" and tossing ad hominem attacks. Although I can't be mad at Kathy, who I must +rep once a week. Oh RPF, why do I love you so much?

Supermario: From those of us who have been to the rodeo a few times, trust me, we can run one, maybe two big candidates, tops. Rand's undertaking was gigantic the last time and took tons of energy and resources. For everyone saying the Senate Conservatives Fund and Club For Growth and such count as support. Think again. Remember Rand in 2010? Both the SCF and CFG took forever to get on board even though all of us bombarded them with emails. If another Republican they like runs, they will stay out of it until the General.

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> I'm cautious for it being Michigan for one, and I'm not sure if we could raise the amount of money it would take to fund multiple liberty candidates at 5 million each.  Do we focus like a laser beam, raise 10 million, and take out someone like Graham; or do we fund multiple races and risk losing them all?  Tough call.


As I mentioned, Graham should be priority #1 if nothing else it'll be a monumental thank you effort to Rand for his recent efforts and a gigantic middle finger to the establishment writ large. That said, these idiots that attack Rand only make him stronger and more formidable to the base. I imagine JAmash is being advised on his potential race by Team Rand and all the associated factions that support it be it financial interests or potential endorsements. Also and much to my chagrin, JAmash endorsed the current state chair's reelection so he might get some cover up top in the primary, don't know. In my post you linked to, I extrapolated how I see this next election going red so my only concern is divvying up the grassroots' resources effectively. On one hand I see taking out Graham to be using up most of what we got to offer, leaving less for Brannon and JAmash. On the other, I'd consider the pool of grassroots money is bigger this time around because of our growing influence in the party and the expansion of the grassroots which Rand is making possible. Not to mention, you'd have the likes of Levin, Hannity, Beck and others giving air time to anti-establishment primary opponents as well as articulate conservative challengers to open seats thus raking in even more money and making the grassroots base expand further. I would also assume that the conservative PACs will be spending big money in key areas to optimize their takings in terms of conservative candidates that aren't off the wall and sending token money to other random republican Senate candidates. Let's face it, out of the open seats and ones that they'll want to take back from democrats, JAmash and Brannon will be top priorities over the likes of what WV can offer as a GOP replacement to Rockefeller. Also, Broun will be a priority in GA but not in the vein of the former two. 

That said, it remains to be seen what Rove is up to and where he'll flex his muscles which actually could be the kiss of death these days based on his dismal track record and hatred among the non-establishment folks. If we can get JAmash through the primary, the party will pay the general election tab for the most part since it becomes a Snyder-Amash package. Despite what Snyder has done to irk conservatives, the bottom line is the state is back on track (from where it was) and seems to be slightly improving. If Snyder rules out Obamacare exchanges, he'll shore up his conservative base but this remains to be seen. Having a conservative house and senate basically protects him from himself (from becoming a Romney) in this instance if they get the message across and our C4L has been active all across the state getting massive amounts of petitions flooded to Lansing over this. So, I'll defer to JAmash and let him check the real pulse w/ his peeps and support him if he sees the light but I think we're tough and big enough these days to handle a few Senate races. Because let's face it, we'd be spending another mill or more getting him reelected (which is already in the liberty budget) to the House so we're only diverting a few mill more for a win at this Senate seat.

----------


## tsai3904

PPP Fav/Unfav numbers (no primary numbers yet):

Carl Levin 45/37 (+8)
Candice Miller 33/25 (+8)
Barack Obama 48/47 (+1)
Mike Rogers 16/19 (-3)
Bill Schuette 20/25 (-5)
Roger Kahn 5/15 (-10)
Justin Amash 9/20 (-11)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...ase_MI_308.pdf

----------


## tsai3904

Lots of GOPers deciding against run:

Representative Candice Miller
Attorney General Bill Schuette
Former Attorney General Mike Cox
Former Senate candidate Clark Durant
Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2...E2%80%99s-seat
https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/st...98144627154944

----------


## Adrock

Seems like some major people in MI are deciding against a run. Miller being the biggest of the names.

I hope if Justin does run, we have someone waiting in the wings to run for his open house seat.

----------


## TCE

So his name recognition is 29% as 71% of people are "not sure" how they feel about him. That is terrible news. Sure, there is a ton of time between now and the Primary, but this is a bad sign and means a ton of money will have to be spent on this race.

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> So his name recognition is 29% as 71% of people are "not sure" how they feel about him. That is terrible news. Sure, there is a ton of time between now and the Primary, but this is a bad sign and means a ton of money will have to be spent on this race.


The same could be said about a hypothetical democrat considering this was done before Levin decided to bow out. And, this was a 35 question poll and likely had a bunch of hangups or non answers skewing this to only those that do answer foreign calls that will participate in a lengthy examination. I mean, they're asking if you're a MI or state fan or whether or not you're a fan of the Tigers or not. Those outside of JAmash's district wouldn't know of him unless they had a pro or con opinion about him and obviously many establishment types would not favor him up front, thus leaving him a full 71% that aren't predisposed to not liking him. So, this is meaningless and they wasted their money before the dynamics changed in such a big way.

Key point to take away however: 


> Justin Amash has a 9/20 favorability rating 
> and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19 favorability rating and trailed Levin 
> 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25 favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger 
> Kahn had a 5/15 favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> As I mentioned, Graham should be priority #1 if nothing else it'll be a monumental thank you effort to Rand for his recent efforts and a gigantic middle finger to the establishment writ large. That said, these idiots that attack Rand only make him stronger and more formidable to the base. I imagine JAmash is being advised on his potential race by Team Rand and all the associated factions that support it be it financial interests or potential endorsements. Also and much to my chagrin, JAmash endorsed the current state chair's reelection so he might get some cover up top in the primary, don't know. In my post you linked to, I extrapolated how I see this next election going red so my only concern is divvying up the grassroots' resources effectively. On one hand I see taking out Graham to be using up most of what we got to offer, leaving less for Brannon and JAmash. On the other, I'd consider the pool of grassroots money is bigger this time around because of our growing influence in the party and the expansion of the grassroots which Rand is making possible. Not to mention, you'd have the likes of Levin, Hannity, Beck and others giving air time to anti-establishment primary opponents as well as articulate conservative challengers to open seats thus raking in even more money and making the grassroots base expand further. I would also assume that the conservative PACs will be spending big money in key areas to optimize their takings in terms of conservative candidates that aren't off the wall and sending token money to other random republican Senate candidates. Let's face it, out of the open seats and ones that they'll want to take back from democrats, JAmash and Brannon will be top priorities over the likes of what WV can offer as a GOP replacement to Rockefeller. Also, Broun will be a priority in GA but not in the vein of the former two. 
> 
> That said, it remains to be seen what Rove is up to and where he'll flex his muscles which actually could be the kiss of death these days based on his dismal track record and hatred among the non-establishment folks. If we can get JAmash through the primary, the party will pay the general election tab for the most part since it becomes a Snyder-Amash package. Despite what Snyder has done to irk conservatives, the bottom line is the state is back on track (from where it was) and seems to be slightly improving. If Snyder rules out Obamacare exchanges, he'll shore up his conservative base but this remains to be seen. Having a conservative house and senate basically protects him from himself (from becoming a Romney) in this instance if they get the message across and our C4L has been active all across the state getting massive amounts of petitions flooded to Lansing over this. So, I'll defer to JAmash and let him check the real pulse w/ his peeps and support him if he sees the light but I think we're tough and big enough these days to handle a few Senate races. Because let's face it, we'd be spending another mill or more getting him reelected (which is already in the liberty budget) to the House so we're only diverting a few mill more for a win at this Senate seat.


Well said.  I defer to Amash as well.  If he makes it a go, I'm all in.  I think you're correct when you point out that our fund raising base is casting a much larger net these days, and their general election races will go into an autopilot in terms of fund raising if we can push them to victory in the primaries.  I'm liking this chess game more and more.

----------


## TCE

FSP-Rebel, that is some serious spin. No matter what you take away from the poll, it has to be negative. Either he has a -11 approval rating or he is a complete unknown. Which would you prefer? That's the point, though. No one outside his district knows him. That's a problem. If you're argument is that this poll was way too long, well, why was Amash receiving such bad numbers whereas other people had great number? PPP has been a great pollster for a while. They have given us no reason to doubt them. This poll is legit.

----------


## supermario21

Low name recognition and only down 15 to Levin is not a bad thing AT ALL. Get lots of positive spin out there, tell him to write op-eds like Rand, etc.

----------


## tsai3904

Justin Amash ‏@justinamash
#MIGOP can't put up an unelectable establishment candidate for Senate who doesn't appeal to independent & moderate voters on federal issues.

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> FSP-Rebel, that is some serious spin. No matter what you take away from the poll, it has to be negative. Either he has a -11 approval rating or he is a complete unknown. Which would you prefer? That's the point, though. No one outside his district knows him. That's a problem. If you're argument is that this poll was way too long, well, why was Amash receiving such bad numbers whereas other people had great number? PPP has been a great pollster for a while. They have given us no reason to doubt them. This poll is legit.


For one thing, the current negs come from the impression that he's tied to Ron by those who are rinos and by the baseline drones on the left that wouldn't even venture a positive view of a republican despite knowing nothing about them. And again, any prospective dem would get the same treatment and everyone is starting from scratch here. Regardless of my take on the poll, it was done prematurely to have any meaning outside of the obvious. Furthermore, you, me and a few others are even thinking about this right now. Give me 6-9 months and then I'll be freaking out if it's the same. Lastly, no interest in this will manifest itself for serious consideration until JAmash actually decides to run and the news will get out accordingly. The positive, as I previously mentioned, is that there are huge swaths of room to popularize him in over and above getting his name out. I'm sure you know that mounting a Senate primary involves speaking all over the place and he'll do that should he decide to run. Then he'll have an army of unpaid volunteers plus an array of outside support coming in financially to help him get on the airwaves outside of the scores of interviews he'll inevitably get.

----------


## roho76

I think if we can rule the senate with liberty politicians then we can bring most horrible legislation to its knees. I'm with Amash 100% should be decide to run. We need to rule the senate. Rand earned a lot of street cred with filibuster and would be an obvious endorsement of Amash.

----------


## Michigan11

Michigan is a state undergoing dramatic changes, no less than a paradigmn shift as they term it. You have to live there or know the state well to know which way those political winds are blowing. When incumbents retire, usually the other party gets their turn for some reason, as if the incumbent party goes into slumber. The economy has had an impact on the pro-union historical stance in the state as well. Something else is that republicans in the state that donate, view this seat as more of a prize than even the presidency almost. The primary I believe would be the biggest obstacle, because I believe this seat is going republican no matter what in 2014. That's my 2 cents, not alot of specific facts in my post, but I know trends well, and Michigan is trending towards not only republican, but real conservatism.

----------


## erowe1

> *sigh*
> 
> the kind of Republicans who won in 2010 in MI are like chalk and cheese to Amash who is an unabashed small govt conservative. 
> 
> The kind of Republican that actually wins in MI are big government pandering moderates and Snyder is independently wealthy and was running against a corrupt administration so it was fairly easy.  
> 
> That doesn't mean they're going to send a libertarian to the U.S Senate.  They never have and never will.  It's very easy to see this by looking at the history of who they have elected to those Senate seats over the last 60 YEARS.  And you think Amash can buck this trend?! WHY?!


I don't know what trend you're talking about. The trend is that Michigan is a purple state that can vote for either party. So we don't need to buck the trend. We just need this midterm election to go Republican just like the last one did.

Of course Amash is different than all the other Republicans. Just like Rand is. That makes him a better candidate, not worse. If even Rick Snyder can win a statewide race, how much more should Amash be able to.

Also, why do you keep using "60 years"? Do elections 60 years ago indicate more about Michigan politics today than elections 3 years ago do?

----------


## erowe1

I also don't get why people keep mentioning Amash's position in the House as an argument against running for Senate. That's not an argument against it, it's another argument for it.

How do you expect to ever get anyone in the Senate if we don't use the House as our farm league? If we get a chance to focus on one big race in 2014, then we couldn't do better than Amash for Senate. We have no other places where we could get behind a Senate candidate who's both as good as he is on the issues and as electable as a serious candidate. He's easily in a better position than Bills was, in part precisely because he's a Congressman.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Michigan is a state undergoing dramatic changes, no less than a paradigmn shift as they term it. You have to live there or know the state well to know which way those political winds are blowing. When incumbents retire, usually the other party gets their turn for some reason, as if the incumbent party goes into slumber. The economy has had an impact on the pro-union historical stance in the state as well. Something else is that republicans in the state that donate, view this seat as more of a prize than even the presidency almost. The primary I believe would be the biggest obstacle, because I believe this seat is going republican no matter what in 2014. That's my 2 cents, not alot of specific facts in my post, but I know trends well, and Michigan is trending towards not only republican, but real conservatism.


It's interesting hearing the responses of those on the ground in Michigan.  I'd love to see election results by county, might have to delve into that later.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I also don't get why people keep mentioning Amash's position in the House as an argument against running for Senate. That's not an argument against it, it's another argument for it.
> 
> How do you expect to ever get anyone in the Senate if we don't use the House as our farm league? If we get a chance to focus on one big race in 2014, then we couldn't do better than Amash for Senate. We have no other places where we could get behind a Senate candidate who's both as good as he is on the issues and as electable as a serious candidate. He's easily in a better position than Bills was, in part precisely because he's a Congressman.


Yeah but we don't want to lose that one seat to a hack.

----------


## supermario21

But in the grand scheme of things, losing 1 House seat means very little. There is not much of a difference in the GOP caucus with solely Ron Paul in it compared to now when you've got 3 or 4 superstars and another dozen or so solid allies. It's worth the opportunity of a Senate seat.

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> It's interesting hearing the responses of those on the ground in Michigan.  I'd love to see election results by county, might have to delve into that later.


This is what I've been trying to put into words about a midterm election here these days


And, this is what happens to back bencher dems as far as numbers go



> Republican	Rick Snyder	1,874,834	58.11%	+15.81%
> Democratic	Virg Bernero	1,287,320	39.90%	-16.46%
> Libertarian	Ken Proctor	        22,390	0.69%	+0.08%
> Constitution	Stacey Mathia	20,818	0.65%	+0.46%
> Green	Harley Mikkelson	20,699	0.64%	+0.12%

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> Yeah but we don't want to lose that one seat to a hack.


I was looking at the roll call vote for the recent continuing resolution (the one that funds the govt thru Sept) and it appears that even when we have these newly elected/newfound allies they vote with the leadership (when it counts) so electing people to the House seems to be a wash in general. Key defectors towards establishment on fundamental fiscal matters: Bentivolio, Schweikert, Yoho, Chaffetz, Mulvaney, Labrador, Huelskamp, Huizenga, Duncan and Mullin to name a few.

----------


## supermario21

The problem is leadership does such a $#@!ty job with organizing bills and amendments that are guys are usually torn between voting no because it's not perfect or yes because it has something good but also something equally bad. I wouldn't call every split a "defection."

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> The problem is leadership does such a $#@!ty job with organizing bills and amendments that are guys are usually torn between voting no because it's not perfect or yes because it has something good but also something equally bad. I wouldn't call every split a "defection."


I'm not really trying to make a big deal out of this but if JAmash and TMass are the leaders of the liberty/teaparty caucus it seems like the rule of thumb is to roll with them over the establishment every time. It's more than I'm making it out to be, sure, but then again it's not all that complex.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> But in the grand scheme of things, losing 1 House seat means very little. There is not much of a difference in the GOP caucus with solely Ron Paul in it compared to now when you've got 3 or 4 superstars and another dozen or so solid allies. It's worth the opportunity of a Senate seat.


I don't know.  Some people in this movement have been fighting for three or more decades to get a foothold.  I want to hang onto everything we've accomplished for dear life.  Even though Amash is young, he's still looked up to for guidance by our other liberty candidates in the House.

----------


## itshappening

> I don't know what trend you're talking about. The trend is that Michigan is a purple state that can vote for either party. So we don't need to buck the trend. We just need this midterm election to go Republican just like the last one did.
> 
> Of course Amash is different than all the other Republicans. Just like Rand is. That makes him a better candidate, not worse. If even Rick Snyder can win a statewide race, how much more should Amash be able to.
> 
> Also, why do you keep using "60 years"? Do elections 60 years ago indicate more about Michigan politics today than elections 3 years ago do?


Believe me Amash would get burried by the slick Democrat Machine which will come out in force in a Federal U.S Senate election (supported by DNC) 

All of Amash's votes against violence against women and liberal legislation would be demagogued to hell and back and they will be out in force to give him a resounding defeat.

They will never, ever send someone like Amash to the Senate so just drop the fantasy.

It's hard enough to pull off in a red state and that's why there's only a few senators like this... Rand Paul and Mike Lee where winning the primary was basically winning the general election.  Flake is kind of libertarian and only won by 2 points in a heavily red state so that shows you how difficult it is.  In Mich? don't make me laugh.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> This is what I've been trying to put into words about a midterm election here these days


Now, *THAT* is interesting.

----------


## UtahApocalypse

Just checking... Everyone so far that ACTUALLY lives in Michigan feel he can win. Those that DON'T live here and know the real time in the ground political wind think he can't

----------


## supermario21

I live in Ohio and in the part of the state which is pretty demographically similar to SE Michigan (very labor, blue-collar oriented). Amash's positions could probably play better with that group than other Republicans, especially on trade issues.

----------


## kathy88

> It's worth much, much more than that.  In the Senate one man with courage really can be a majority.  In the House, he's just a gadfly.  What Ron showed is that it takes a lifetime of amazing personal achievement and noble acts of principle to make a big impact in the House.  What we've seen from Rand is that one man can really shine an infinitely brighter light on the sorry nature of the Washington establishment from the Senate, in a much shorter period of time.  
> 
> The House is where we build and sustain the movement, the Senate is where we bring about political change.


Never thought I'd be outta rep for you but there it is.

----------


## erowe1

> Just checking... Everyone so far that ACTUALLY lives in Michigan feel he can win. Those that DON'T live here and know the real time in the ground political wind think he can't


I lived in Michigan for the first 25 years of my life. I have close family there. I live 5 miles south of the border now. And I've been active in Michigan politics while living here.

----------


## supermario21

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ate/?hpt=po_t1

Scott Romney looking at bid. Not to mention history, but Spencer Abraham defeated a Romney on his way to winning the last open seat in an off year...

----------


## EBounding

> This is what I've been trying to put into words about a midterm election here these days
> 
> 
> And, this is what happens to back bencher dems as far as numbers go


And I remember when Rob Steele gave _John Dingell_ a run for his money in 2010.  I'm hoping for a similar (or better) environment for congressional Republicans in 2014. To say Justin has no chance for Senate is ridiculous.

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## Barrex

Rand PAC?
Would Massie, Rand, Ron and others be willing to campaign for Amash? I dont mean just endorse him. I mean go in Michigan and really campaign. Hold more than just few events and speeches. These things are standard in Europe. Why? Because they work and are effective. 1 popular senator (Rand) having few speeches for Justin can be worth more than 100000 (or x amount for those who want argue about exact value.... $#@!s) dollars. Many elections were won because x candidate brought "bigger gun" to campaign for him. This is old tradition that was common in ancient Rome (Cicero). I didnt see that in US politics. I saw sign waiving. We dont have those here... dont think they are practical/that useful.

----------


## compromise

> Rand PAC?
> Would Massie, Rand, Ron and others be willing to campaign for Amash? I dont mean just endorse him. I mean go in Michigan and really campaign. Hold more than just few events and speeches. These things are standard in Europe. Why? Because they work and are effective. 1 popular senator (Rand) having few speeches for Justin can be worth more than 100000 (or x amount for those who want argue about exact value.... $#@!s) dollars. Many elections were won because x candidate brought "bigger gun" to campaign for him. This is old tradition that was common in ancient Rome (Cicero). I didnt see that in US politics. I saw sign waiving. We dont have those here... dont think they are practical/that useful.


It does happen sometimes. Ted Cruz had Rand, Santorum and Palin campaigning for him by appearing at his events. Palin and Ron were at Rand's events too. Rand campaigned on Ron's behalf in the 2012 presidential run in Iowa and helped us get some more mainstream voters. Rand's also planning to campaign for McConnell in 2014.

----------


## erowe1

> http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ate/?hpt=po_t1
> 
> Scott Romney looking at bid. Not to mention history, but Spencer Abraham defeated a Romney on his way to winning the last open seat in an off year...


I don't remember that. But Ronna Romney ran against Levin in 96.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Michigan,_1996

ETA: Oh she did lose a primary to Abraham in 94.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronna_Romney

----------


## dusman

> It's worth much, much more than that.  In the Senate one man with courage really can be a majority.  In the House, he's just a gadfly.  What Ron showed is that it takes a lifetime of amazing personal achievement and noble acts of principle to make a big impact in the House.  What we've seen from Rand is that one man can really shine an infinitely brighter light on the sorry nature of the Washington establishment from the Senate, in a much shorter period of time.  
> 
> *The House is where we build and sustain the movement, the Senate is where we bring about political change.*


Nailed it in my eyes. I agree.

----------


## itshappening

> Rand PAC?
> Would Massie, Rand, Ron and others be willing to campaign for Amash? I dont mean just endorse him. I mean go in Michigan and really campaign. Hold more than just few events and speeches. These things are standard in Europe. Why? Because they work and are effective. 1 popular senator (Rand) having few speeches for Justin can be worth more than 100000 (or x amount for those who want argue about exact value.... $#@!s) dollars. Many elections were won because x candidate brought "bigger gun" to campaign for him. This is old tradition that was common in ancient Rome (Cicero). I didnt see that in US politics. I saw sign waiving. We dont have those here... dont think they are practical/that useful.


WHat's the point? it would be an embarrassing and crushing loss. 

Stebbenow just won there by 20 points.  They do not elect libertarians or even GOP to the Senate. Just look at the record over 60 years.

Amash should swerve this at all costs and so should we.

Yes, the Senate is important but focus on red states where the primary is the election.

SC is more important and retiring Graham.  That's a battle we can win.  Spending millions in Mich is a waste of time no matter how much we like Justin it will be  like Bills in MN

----------


## itshappening

Folks, you're not going to convince these liberal statist voters in MI to go against the DNC and vote in a GOPer to the Senate.

Yes, they will entertain a GOPer like Snyder for Governor but they will never send Snyder to the U.S senate unless he becomes really popular after 2 terms and retains a personal following. And Snyder is a big government dummy who wants to bankrupt his state through medicare expansion so liberal fools are happy with him.

If Amash ran for Senate it would be a crushing, embarrassing and expensive loss.  He should stay in his SAFE district which has been carved out for him and which they tried to make more liberal to weaken him last time but that's his seat for a decade where they will try and make it even worse for him next time.

----------


## Barrex

> WHat's the point? it would be an embarrassing and crushing loss.


In your opinion.... and you made it perfectly clear. You obviously feel strongly about it.

I was asking in case he does decide to run. If people act like you do it will be truly impossible to win. Elections are not just about registered democrats or republicans. It is also about resources (money, volunteers etc.). If Ron, Rand, Massie, Amash, YAL, C4L, liberty volunteers and others join in he can win. To say otherwise is just defeatism and irrational.

Question is not can he win. Question is: What would it take for him to win?

How many volunteers? How many phone calls? How many visits by Rand, Massie, Cruz? How much money?....

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> Folks, you're not going to convince these liberal statist voters in MI to go against the DNC and vote in a GOPer to the Senate.
> 
> Yes, they will entertain a GOPer like Snyder for Governor but they will never send Snyder to the U.S senate unless he becomes really popular after 2 terms and retains a personal following. And Snyder is a big government dummy who wants to bankrupt his state through medicare expansion so liberal fools are happy with him.
> 
> If Amash ran for Senate it would be a crushing, embarrassing and expensive loss.  He should stay in his SAFE district which has been carved out for him and which they tried to make more liberal to weaken him last time but that's his seat for a decade where they will try and make it even worse for him next time.


Snyder is mostly a dumby but that's not what he ran on. And, libs mostly don't like him because of his decision to put on financial manager on Detroit and his signing of RTW. Despite his Romney style of governance, he's hedged because the state legislature won't let him pull this medicaid expansion nor offer obamacare exchange. 

Let me say that I appreciate your posting on most issues but your blatant subversion of the facts on this open Senate seat is astounding. You pass yourself off as some senior scholar on the pulse of Mich but you're from KA iirc. I don't pretend to be all knowing, I'm just presenting recent political history not to mention my ties to C4L here over and above the contacts and allies I have in quite a few districts w/ many state and district comm members - all of whom are looking for an Amash Senate run. If I thought his chances were bleak, I'd be the first to say as it does make sense to keep a safe House seat all other things removed. Yet, there is no better opportunity to go for Senate and to have a better than average playing field going into a republican year. You're trying to liken this effort to the circumstances surrounding Bills' run but there is nothing in common. You've made your point in no uncertain terms, so let JAmash do what he decides to do and stop salting this effort.

----------


## itshappening

> In your opinion.... and you made it perfectly clear. You obviously feel strongly about it.
> 
> I was asking in case he does decide to run. If people act like you do it will be truly impossible to win. Elections are not just about registered democrats or republicans. It is also about resources (money, volunteers etc.). If Ron, Rand, Massie, Amash, YAL, C4L, liberty volunteers and others join in he can win. To say otherwise is just defeatism and irrational.
> 
> Question is not can he win. Question is: What would it take for him to win?
> 
> How many volunteers? How many phone calls? How many visits by Rand, Massie, Cruz? How much money?....


What would it take for Amash to win... moving to a red state. 

Seriously, the Dems will pick a woman and campaign against his VAWA vote  and the liberal rubes will fall for it no matter how much you explain it to them and it will be a crushing 60/40 loss.  That's the level of debate in a state like Michigan.

It would be almost too easy for the Obama Machine to defeat Amash and once they do they will never stop crowing about it.

----------


## erowe1

> What would it take for Amash to win... moving to a red state. 
> 
> Seriously, the Dems will pick a woman and campaign against his VAWA and the liberal rubes will fall for it no matter how much you explain it to them.  That's the level of debate in a state like Michigan.


How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.

----------


## itshappening

> How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.


Because the woman can grandstand more against his VAWA vote and get women to make sure they vote Democrat to stop this man being their senator.

Can you imagine MSNBC and the national media covering that race? It will be embarrassing and Justin would not stand a chance.  They will spend whatever it takes to make everyone aware of Justin's votes with their own spin attached and it just sounds really bad.  2 million voters aren't going to read his Facebook explanations.

----------


## Keith and stuff

> How would picking a woman make it harder for Amash to win? Women make of 50% of the population but only 20% of the Senate. If they put a woman up against him that's just giving him an automatic advantage right out of the gate. And if she tries to make her campaign into an overt expression of feminism by whining about VAWA, she'll only make her loss worse.


? Women make up more than 50% of voters. Women, at least recently, tend to do better than men in general elections, at least in Northern states. This is pretty widely known and reported. I know people talk about it at GOP meetings in my state. All of the congressmen in my state are women.

----------


## erowe1

> Women, at least recently, tend to do better than men in general elections, at least in Northern states. This is pretty widely known and reported.


Got a source for that?

ETA: Looking over recent US Senate elections, I don't see any support for that.

----------


## erowe1

> Because the woman can grandstand more against his VAWA vote and get women to make sure they vote Democrat to stop this man being their senator.
> 
> Can you imagine MSNBC and the national media covering that race? It will be embarrassing and Justin would not stand a chance.  They will spend whatever it takes to make everyone aware of Justin's votes with their own spin attached and it just sounds really bad.  2 million voters aren't going to read his Facebook explanations.


I take it you wouldn't think very favorably about Rand running for president either then.

----------


## UtahApocalypse

I will end with this...

It's an open seat, non presidential year. That will not happen again. It's now or never. He risks it going for the Senate or resigns himself to dozens of years only in the House.

----------


## itshappening

> I take it you wouldn't think very favorably about Rand running for president either then.


Rand doesn't have to win blue states to garner the electoral college votes he needs to become president, although it helps.

----------


## erowe1

> Rand doesn't have to win blue states to garner the electoral college votes he needs to become president, although it helps.


Michigan's not a blue state. It's exactly the kind of state someone has to win to become president. If the only states in play for someone who thinks the government is too big are the deep red ones, then the presidency is not in play for us at all.

----------


## itshappening

> Michigan's not a blue state. It's exactly the kind of state someone has to win to become president. If the only states in play for someone who thinks the government is too big are the deep red ones, then the presidency is not in play for us at all.


When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?


First of all, prez elections have historically went dem here but we're talking midterm here and in recent times things have bended red. Silver thinks the dems will take this seat so I'll have to defer to him, just surprised he's so sure about it. Lastly, the electoral votes would always go GOP if they were doled out via congressional district appropriation, which is what our party is intent on doing for the future.

----------


## Uriah

As of 2/20/2013

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...enate-in-2014/




> Michigan. The longtime Democratic incumbent, Carl Levin, has not yet decided whether to run for re-election. If he retires, the race should still be Democratic leaning: Michigan is somewhere between a blue state and a swing state. But Michigan Republicans have a number of competent and moderate representatives whom they could nominate to replace Mr. Levin.

----------


## erowe1

> When did the GOP last win MI's electoral votes?


Probably 88. But the only elections Republicans won since then were 2000 and 2004, and Michigan was in play for those elections. It was in the same category as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and happened to go Dem by small margins. In 2000 that was actually a surprise. It's still in that same basic place. My guess would be that in presidential elections, the percentages in Michigan are generally pretty close to the nationwide popular vote.

----------


## supermario21

Bush lost Michigan by 5.1 and 3.4 points I think in 00 and 04. Any chance voter ID gets passed in Michigan? Anything to suppress Detroit turnout would be good. I hate to say that but Michigan, like Pennsylvania, is a 1-city Democratic state, with help from Flint-Saginaw and Ann Arbor-Lansing to lesser extents.

----------


## FSP-Rebel

> Any chance voter ID gets passed in Michigan?


Afaik, we have voter id. Voting requires state id or driver's license and lately they have scanners where the id are ran through making sure of the legitimacy.

----------


## TheTyke

Well, the risk makes me nervous too, but I'm definitely in the "trust Amash to make the right decision" camp. He was barely on our radar before winning the congressional seat, did his own fundraising and obviously knew when to seize the opportunity. I can only assume he will get his ducks in a row and work out the possibilities before making a decision.

Besides, Itshappening is one of McConnell and establishment pundits' best buddies, while arguing too frequently and strongly against our allies for my comfort. :P

----------


## PaleoPaul

It would be awesome, but the fact that it's so union-dominated makes me nervous.  Obama won there by 16 points in 2008 and 9 points in 2012.  And the fact that Amash is so right-wing...I don't know...

----------


## erowe1

> It would be awesome, but the fact that it's so union-dominated makes me nervous.  Obama won there by 16 points in 2008 and 9 points in 2012.  And the fact that Amash is so right-wing...I don't know...


I wouldn't call Amash "so right wing." He's an independent. He'd have an easier time getting non-Republicans to vote for him than the partisan hacks would, not a harder time.

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## PaleoPaul

He's against pretty much everything that the progressive agenda stands for.  And Detroit is like Michigan's Philly...it tends to determine the election.

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## erowe1

> He's against pretty much everything that the progressive agenda stands for.  And Detroit is like Michigan's Philly...it tends to determine the election.


Detroit's less of a factor than Philly is. And in the last senatorial election in PA, Toomey won.

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## EBounding

One scenario where I wouldn't want Justin to run is if Levin decides to run for governor.  I really hope that's not what Levin is planning here.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Bush lost Michigan by 5.1 and 3.4 points I think in 00 and 04. Any chance voter ID gets passed in Michigan? Anything to suppress Detroit turnout would be good. I hate to say that but Michigan, like Pennsylvania, is a 1-city Democratic state, with help from Flint-Saginaw and Ann Arbor-Lansing to lesser extents.


If Amash does run, think he could kick off his campaign in a democrat stronghold like Ann Arbor?  You think he'd be popular with the college kids, which would cut into the usual democratic voting bloc.

Dearborn would be another potential place to kick off the campaign.

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## Son of Detroit

> If Amash does run, think he could kick off his campaign in a democrat stronghold like Ann Arbor?  You think he'd be popular with the college kids, which would cut into the usual democratic voting bloc.
> 
> Dearborn would be another potential place to kick off the campaign.


Ann Arbor makes sense.  He has two degrees from here.

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## supermario21

> If Amash does run, think he could kick off his campaign in a democrat stronghold like Ann Arbor?  You think he'd be popular with the college kids, which would cut into the usual democratic voting bloc.
> 
> Dearborn would be another potential place to kick off the campaign.


I'd tend to agree. Maybe even campaign with Ron in Ann Arbor? I know I keep beating a useless drum but Amash has a chance to win like Spencer Abraham did in 94, a staunch Arab-American conservative but Amash can have further appeal across party lines to civil libertarians and anti-war folks than Abraham did. Would moderate Republicans vote for Amash though? How did Stabenow do so well? Did Hoekstra just run a garbage campaign?

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## erowe1

Stabenow was the incumbent, for one thing.

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## PaleoPaul

From what I hear, Arabs and Muslims used to be a solid GOP voting bloc until 9/11 and the unPatriot Act happened.

Could Amash be the first GOPer running for a national office since 2000 to get Arabs and Muslims to vote GOP?!

Now that I think about it...GO AMASH!

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## erowe1

> From what I hear, Arabs and Muslims used to be a solid GOP voting bloc until 9/11 and the unPatriot Act happened.
> 
> Could Amash be the first GOPer running for a national office since 2000 to get Arabs and Muslims to vote GOP?!
> 
> Now that I think about it...GO AMASH!


I think it's a misconception to think Arab Americans make a large voting block in Michigan. There's one city where they have a very high concentration. But I don't think they make up more than 1% of the state. I do think Amash would get most of their votes though.

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## PaleoPaul

> I think it's a misconception to think Arab Americans make a large voting block in Michigan. There's one city where they have a very high concentration. But I don't think they make up more than 1% of the state. I do think Amash would get most of their votes though.


I was talking about the Arab demographic itself, not how it would influence Michigan.

Just like if Herman Cain was the nominee last year, people would be saying "Could Cain be the first GOPer since the 60s to get a good chunk of the black vote?!"  Same principle..

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## PaleoPaul

> Detroit's less of a factor than Philly is. And in the last senatorial election in PA, Toomey won.


Toomey's more of a moderate compared to Amash.

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## supermario21

Dearborn Arabs would support a guy like Amash...Here's an old article talking about Abraham's defeat. unfortunately I can only read the first sentence or two.





> When Spencer Abraham went through his political ups and downs last fall, he wasn't alone. From a crushing defeat in the Senate race to the surprise appointment as U.S. energy secretary, many Arab Americans in the Detroit area rode the political roller coaster with him. "It was really a surprise for him to lose a seat in the Senate," said Osama Siblani, editor of the weekly Arab American News, in Dearborn.


Seeing that he thought it was a suprise, I take it that the Arab community supported him.
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/...ckval=GooglePM

And whoever said Arabs were GOP leaning, you're right. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001...tember11.usa31



> America's long-established but small Arab population has been swelled by refugees and displaced populations from the Middle East conflict. Los Angeles has the largest single Arab American population, but the most prominent Arab American community is that in the Detroit and Dearborn area of Michigan, where 300,000 Muslims live. The former Republican senator for Michigan, Spencer Abraham, now the Bush administration's energy secretary, is the country's most prominent elected Arab American.
> 
> Estimates during last year's presidential election suggest that Arab American voters backed George Bush rather than Al Gore by 40%-28%. Mr Bush became the first presidential candidate to address a specificially Arab American rally when he spoke in Dearborn in October 2000.
> 
> During his speech Mr Bush took up one of the most frequent complaints of Arab Americans, that they are discriminated against at airport security check-ins. "Such indiscriminate uses of passenger profiling are wrong and must be stopped," Mr Bush told the rally.



Here's another article talking about the huge swing in the Arab community. Amash can make significant inroads unlike any Republican.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/...michigan_N.htm



> Obama has held two town-hall-style meetings with Arab Americans. The campaign has held four conference calls with leaders and has sponsored Arab-American voter registration drives.
> 
> Abdallah voted for George W. Bush in 2000, convinced that he wasn't going to be overly influenced by the Israel lobby. Dearborn and Dearborn Heights gave Bush a 49%-45% victory.
> 
> "But I guess I didn't realize what a neoconservative he was," Abdallah, 42, says. "I didn't vote for him again."
> 
> In 2004, the two communities gave John Kerry a lopsided 58%-40% win over Bush.

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## supermario21

http://www.freep.com/article/2013031...dentity-crisis

Here's an article talking about the weakness and age of the Democratic Party in Michigan.

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## FSP-Rebel

> http://www.freep.com/article/2013031...dentity-crisis
> 
> Here's an article talking about the weakness and age of the Democratic Party in Michigan.


It's some of what that article mentions among others that I had in mind when driving my own forecast of whether or not it would be prudent for JAmash to run and inevitably win under these newer circumstances. However, if Silver is that bullish still on the dems I'm not gonna be spitting in the wind here. It's up to JAmash and I'll support whatever he plans on doing.

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## Peace&Freedom

As a state, Michigan trends Democratic, period. They may be weakening and aging, but they still outnumber the Republican vote there. The best way to get a liberty candidate to win there is to run him/her in the DEMOCRATIC primaries as a liberty Democrat, period. FSP-Rebel is right, don't waste Amash's resources as a Republican in a race he is hardwired to lose. This is a WINNABLE race for a liberty victory, but only if we put a candidate in there who is positioned to win.

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## supermario21

What's a liberty Democrat? Someone with terrible fiscal ideas? I'm sorry I just can't buy into that idea.

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## Bastiat's The Law

It's important to plant a flag in the republican party and build something.  The democratic party is hopeless and welded to income redistribution.

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## itshappening

Muslims supported Bush like 80% then he started invading Muslim countries and now they support Obama 80%.

Bush was a freaking moron and ruined everything good about the GOP.

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## supermario21

> Muslims supported Bush like 80% then he started invading Muslim countries and now they support Obama 80%.
> 
> Bush was a freaking moron and ruined everything good about the GOP.



Yeah, you're making the point for Amash to run. He's the one Republican that can flip the large Arab population back to the GOP, and with margins probably larger than Bush ever had. Couple that with declining Democratic turnout in an off-year and you have a recipe to win. Justin Amash is the anti-George Bush and the anti-George Bush Republicans are the ones that win in Michigan.

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## itshappening

> Yeah, you're making the point for Amash to run. He's the one Republican that can flip the large Arab population back to the GOP, and with margins probably larger than Bush ever had. Couple that with declining Democratic turnout in an off-year and you have a recipe to win. Justin Amash is the anti-George Bush and the anti-George Bush Republicans are the ones that win in Michigan.


I dont think Amash should run. A no name Democrat will have a field day with all his no votes.  They will bury him and they will even send Obama a few times to lap it up and enjoy the easy victory.  They will be talking about it for years to come. it's not a good idea.

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## itshappening

Justin is in a 55/45 district. Why the hell would he give it up to run a statewide campaign where all his No votes will dragged up and demagogued etc?  Plus, Obama will pop up to grandstand.  There's lots of material there.  How on earth could be vote against the VAWA?! I can see the Headlines now: "Obama visits rape victims in Michigan".  He'll gleefully use such an opportunity to ram the point home that Justin doesn't want to help these poor women who are being beaten and raped. Or he voted against the shelter the woman ran to when escaping the an abusive husband.

And on and on it goes.  Every program he's voted against they will drag it up and contrive to tell some manufactured story. This is how they operate and Levin would not be retiring unless they had a plan to hand it off to someone.  The Democrats never put at risk a Senate seat and will be all out to hang on to this even though it's open it's really not as voters will be hit hard and pressed into voting for the Democrat through the usual tactics.

i would honestly be surprised if Justin cracked 42% once they're done with him statewide.  It will be a bloodbath and the Democrats will be yukking it up for years to come.

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## TaftFan

I suggested elsewhere we go ahead and let Romney's older brother run to see if an open Michigan seat is winnable. He is 71 and would probably only serve one term if elected. If he indeed got elected, the seat would be viable and Amash could run in 2020.

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## supermario21

Democrats never put a Senate seat at risk? Nationwide or the Michigan Party? Because I'm pretty sure Evan Bayh in 2010 retiring a week before the filing deadline was essentially throwing away that one lol. I get your fears, but Amash is probably best equipped to explain those votes. You're scared of VAWA? Then heck why even have a liberty movement? And Taft, 2020 would be worse than 2014.

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## itshappening

> Democrats never put a Senate seat at risk? Nationwide or the Michigan Party? Because I'm pretty sure Evan Bayh in 2010 retiring a week before the filing deadline was essentially throwing away that one lol. I get your fears, but Amash is probably best equipped to explain those votes. You're scared of VAWA? Then heck why even have a liberty movement? And Taft, 2020 would be worse than 2014.


2 million voters are not going to read his facebook.  They will see the scary ad and Obama visiting with rape victims to press home the point.  That's it.  Then every newspaper in the state will be telling the dumbass voter to vote for the Democrat.  The Democrats are not stupid. They're not going to throw away an MI senate seat.  They will spend millions and tens of millions if they have to with Obama, Clinton and Kerry visits. It will be a brutal race and Amash will be chewed up, spat out and pounded into the ground. Once they've won and ended his career at the tender age of 34 we will never hear the end of it.  They will be reminding us of it for years to come.

edit: the liberty movement should go for Senate seats in Red states where the primary is the election hint : South Carolina.  Justin is just in the wrong state for us to pull it off.

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## Uriah

> I dont think Amash should run. A no name Democrat will have a field day with all his no votes.  They will bury him and they will even send Obama a few times to lap it up and enjoy the easy victory.  They will be talking about it for years to come. it's not a good idea.


If the Democratic nominee's main message is how "bad" Amash is they will lose. For any candidate to win they must give the electorate a reason to vote for something not against. Running against Amash's record will increase his name recognition as much as the Democrat's.

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## Hyperion

Michigan has a Democratic lean but it's not overwhelming. The house delegation, State Senate, State House are all GOP(granted with favorable lines). In a mid-term year with a Democratic president, the GOP will probably be in its best position to win an open seat. If Justin is going to run, it's difficult to envision a scenario where he'll stand a better chance.

I think Amash's intelligent, level-headed approach along with independent stances on the foreign policy, civil libertarian issues would play well with swing voters.

Like man I would hate to see Justin risk a house seat he should hold for a long time for an uncertain Senate race. It's his career and he certainly understands the possibilities better. I trust whatever decision Amash makes to the best.

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## erowe1

> Because I'm pretty sure Evan Bayh in 2010 retiring a week before the filing deadline was essentially throwing away that one lol.


It was the opposite. By waiting until that moment Bayh allowed the party to choose its nominee without a primary. So they ended up with a solid one.

He could have announced his retirement 2 years in advance and allowed for a real primary contest. But presumably he hadn't decided to yet. And if he'd announced it just another week ahead of when he did, that would have allowed a no-name Democrat to get on the primary ballot and win their party's nomination.

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## Peace&Freedom

> What's a liberty Democrat? Someone with terrible fiscal ideas? I'm sorry I just can't buy into that idea.


That's two-party paradigm-itis, and we're supposed to be past that. The relevant paradigm for us is _liberty candidate versus non-liberty candidate_, not Dem vs GOP. A liberty Democrat is the same as a liberty Republican, somebody who is nominally running under a major party banner in order to get elected, but who is a constitutionalist and libertarian in substance. There will be a different accent (more socially liberal, more prone towards emphasizing civil liberties), but we are looking for the same thing as in GOP candidates, somebody with a Paul track record or mindset, including on fiscal issues. A major party label is merely a leverage point to be used to get into office, not a place to call home. 

A lot of Democrats and independents were attracted to Paul during his campaigns, including being active in the meetup groups, and this group should be mined to run in the _winnable position_ in half of these open seat situations (districts/states that are Democratic dominated). The winnable position in Republican districts/states is one where our candidate is the Republican primary winner/nominee, and the winnable position in Democratic districts/states is one where our candidate is the Democratic primary winner/nominee. WE NEED TO INFLUENCE BOTH major parties in the direction of liberty, the same way neo-cons influence both parties.

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