# News & Current Events > Economy & Markets >  Black Friday?

## Warlord

Nikkei 225 21,033.51 −*914.72 (-4.17%)

Brace for Freefall Friday: Traders warn 'the worst is yet to come TODAY' 


*


> Traders are warning that the 'worst is yet to come today' after the New York stock exchange suffered its biggest ever drop and £152billion was wiped off FTSE shares.
> 
> European and US stock markets slumped painfully again Thursday as new coronavirus infections spread outside China, exacerbating fears of a global slowdown.
> 
> While the markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong closed higher, Europe and New York saw a sea of red. London, Frankfurt and Paris all posted losses of more than three percent on the day.
> 
> Wall Street also took a beating, with major indices shedding more than four percent in what is shaping up to be the US market's worst week since the 2008 financial crisis.
> 
> The Dow shed nearly 1,200 points, or 4.4 percent, taking its losses for the week to more than 11 percent.
> ...


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-freefall.html



https://youtu.be/NjzYRtK6i_M

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## oyarde

You would think there could be more dumping of the junky airlines stock .

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## oyarde

Anyway , I am attending an auction soon where I will be bidding on a rickshaw for Danke . So he can get a real job in the service industry and drive me around on a bicycle .

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## Warlord

> You would think there could be more dumping of the junky airlines stock .


Could well be a bloodbath. London open in 90 minutes..

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## Warlord

FTSE 100	6,501.75	-294.65	-4.34%		 
 DAX	11,751.72	-615.74	-5.00%


Ouch

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## RonZeplin

Silver is way down, saw it as low as $17.07 last evening.  Gold was only down  a little.  

Good time to buy silver IMO, but who knows it may go even lower.

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## Warlord

> Silver is way down, saw it as low as $17.07 last evening.  Gold was only down  a little.  
> 
> Good time to buy silver IMO, but who knows it may go even lower.


Seems like an irrational sell off. I'm buying gold this weekend so happy to get a lower price although the premiums on smaller forms of physical gold suck (0.25 ounce/0.1 ounce Krugerrands).

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## Warlord

Schiff's precious metals analysts suggests one of the reasons for the fall in gold is down to a potential drop in demand from jewelry buyers in India and China due to the virus.  He also said people could just be spooked and are holding cash rather than buying a safe haven asset like gold.



https://youtu.be/yE6sJObncz4

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## Warlord

> (Bloomberg) -- Traders in money markets are starting to bet the Federal Reserve may be forced into an emergency interest-rate cut if the coronavirus gets much worse.
> 
> The wagers are driving down benchmark yields in U.S. Treasuries to record lows. Traders are now pricing more than a full 25-basis-point cut for the Fed in March, with another one expected in June. The last time the Fed cut out of its schedule was in 2008.
> 
> “An emergency cut is clearly a growing possibility for a number of reasons -- from the hit to sentiment, to the lower oil price, moves in equity markets, risks to the global supply chain etc.,” said John Wraith, a rates strategist at UBS Group AG in London. “Unlike most other central banks, they have some room for manoeuvre.”


The Fed are getting worried about the market. Remember Donald is obsessed with propping up the stock market because if it falls it undercuts his claims of an economic boom.

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## Voluntarist

Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

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## oyarde

> ... and his chances of re-election


LOL if they think a 20 percent drop in the dow is bad wait until they see Pelosi and Bernie try to nationalize industries.

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## oyarde

I think the Dow survives coronavirus and a quarter without profits and falls no further than 23,360 unless Bernie is the nominee and polling shows he may win.

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## Warlord

Gold down 1.3%, silver down 4% (!!!)

Dow down 3%.

FTSE and Dax down 5%

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## Warlord

oil down 5% to $45 and change.

The Saudi's etc getting screwed. couldn't happen to a nicer people.

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## RonZeplin

Gonna have to subsidize fracking at that oil price, more socialism is on the way IMO.

NYC socialists like Donnell & Bernie are too big to fail?

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## oyarde

> oil down 5% to $45 and change.
> 
> The Saudi's etc getting screwed. couldn't happen to a nicer people.


Sauds are going to cancel pilgrimages due to coronavirus .

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## oyarde

Down currently down another 3.1 percent or 15 percent since the high , silver down 1.00 , gold down 3 percent . I doubt the Dow drops more than 20 percent total and I think gold regains losses , but we will see .

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## oyarde

Danke should have dumped that airline stock and given me his 401K money to invest like I asked him a month ago . I may check and see about buying some silver this evening .

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## Warlord

> Danke should have dumped that airline stock and given me his 401K money to invest like I asked him a month ago . I may check and see about buying some silver this evening .


SIlver down to $16 and change.

Mos people will never buy it even though you can get an ounce for the price of a few coffee;s.

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## oyarde

> SIlver down to $16 and change.
> 
> Mos people will never buy it even though you can gert an ounce for the price of a few coffee;s.


Under 6 1/2 gallons of gas gets an ounce . I will be taking a little just because.

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## Krugminator2

This maybe the first time bears ever get something right.

Of course, I am leveraged long. You have had one crash in 1987. Every other time the market immediately recovers.   Never pays to be a bear on stocks as a group. Gut feeling is market rallies 5% from here over the next week. 

 If I am wrong and take a mega loss, I will say good job to bears. There certainly are tons of fundamental reasons for stocks to go down. Goldman Sachs just said zero growth in earnings this year because of the virus vs the expected 7%. Stocks were already overvalued to start. So tons of reasons.

But VIX hit 49 today. And the oscillators are at not seen before oversold levels.  Not even 2008 in the financial crisis. To me the is all in long. If you lose your ass, part of the game. But I don't think you will see an opportunity in your lifetime this good as today.

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## devil21

Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated.  It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.

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## Krugminator2

> Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated.  It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.


EVERY asset behaves this way. Not every stock has a plunge protection team. You can test selloffs and see that buying extreme selling works very well in individual stocks as well as markets. At some point markets get to a level where selling stops.  And at the same prices drop to a level where they become attractive to investors.

There was $22 billion in equity outflows this week. That dollar amount has typically market bottoms.

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## oyarde

> +643pts in final 15 minutes.  Move along, nothing to see here.
> 
> Just like how the bogus "trade deal" news was used to pump the bubble, generally bogus "coronavirus" news will probably be used to deflate it.  3-6 is the 11th anniversary of S&P 666...  (/numbers)
> 
> I expect a couple of modest up days to start next week and then back off a cliff again when the next batch of virus news hits.  This cycle will roughly repeat for most of the year.  My .02.


I am going to guess by this time next week the Dow is back within 8.75 percent of last weeks high .

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## Warlord

> Mining is volatile, no doubt about that. It goes both lower and higher than the underlying metals. But over the long term, miners do better. Compare 1 year or longer, and GDX performs better than gold.
> 
> So basically if GDX takes a big dive, it becomes a much better buy than gold itself when GDX bottoms.
> 
> Holding physical coins or bullion is another matter. Good to have some of that for SHTF scenarios.


Timing is everything.  Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.

However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market.  I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis.  It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.

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## Brian4Liberty

> Timing is everything.  Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.
> 
> However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market.  I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis.  It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.


I’d stick to the major miners in the GDX, rather than a junior miner index. If there is a specific junior miner that looks good, I’d get that specific stock. But yes, miners will be a great buy when they bottom.

Nothing wrong with a safe cash haven during a market sell off. I do have concerns with money markets, as they can bust the buck, with no insurance at all on losses.

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## Madison320

> Timing is everything.  Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.
> 
> However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market.  I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis.  It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.


I look at Schiff's/Paul's view as the ultimate in diversification. If they are wrong and debt doesn't matter then I won't make quite as much in the market, but I'll still be getting social security and medicare. But if they're right that we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity then the only thing I need to worry about is getting my fortune stolen by the next Bernie Sanders. So basically if the US crashes or prospers I do well. Most people are all in on the US. If the US fails they fail.

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## Warlord

> Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told Yahoo Finance on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told Der Spiegel it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."



https://theweek.com/speedreads/899110/stock-markets-are-headed-40-percent-plunge-says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis

He also says Trump is finished... 

 @oyarde

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## oyarde

> https://theweek.com/speedreads/899110/stock-markets-are-headed-40-percent-plunge-says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis
> 
> He also says Trump is finished... 
> 
>  @oyarde


30 to 40 percent is what I would expect after a yr of Bernie and Pelosi so needless to say that is huge . I think by next thurs we could be back within 8.75 percent of the high so that would mean a 21 to 31 percent drop from there at least. We shall see but I would expect bargain hunters to start buying before it got that far. What do you think ?

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## Warlord

> 30 to 40 percent is what I would expect after a yr of Bernie and Pelosi so needless to say that is huge . I think by next thurs we could be back within 8.75 percent of the high so that would mean a 21 to 31 percent drop from there at least. We shall see but I would expect bargain hunters to start buying before it got that far. What do you think ?


I have no idea to be honest.  I am staying out for the market. I expect the Fed to do everything they can to support the market in an election year.. However we are in a bear market territory so its going to be up and down; big swings etc.  Gold is still in a bull market despite the sell off if you look at the charts.  Tonight I'm ordering more gold online delivered Tuesday! 

I'll just put it away and watch the markets with interest :-)

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## devil21

> I am going to guess by this time next week the Dow is back within 8.75 percent of last weeks high .


Also, if Bernie kicks ass on Tuesday, which is likely, the rest of the week will -not- be pretty for markets.  Bernie winning Super Tuesday and more virus news?  I noticed even Fed officials are not indicating any sorts of overt (emergency rate cuts, eg) interventions either.  Ex-Dallas Fed Fisher said it was time to take away the punch bowl.  Current Dallas Fed governor Kaplan (iirc) indicated similarly.

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## Krugminator2

> I look at Schiff's/Paul's view as the ultimate in diversification. If they are wrong and debt doesn't matter then I won't make quite as much in the market, but I'll still be getting social security and medicare. But if they're right that we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity then the only thing I need to worry about is getting my fortune stolen by the next Bernie Sanders. So basically if the US crashes or prospers I do well. Most people are all in on the US. If the US fails they fail.




Here is a portfolio that accomplishes everything you just said. Does well in high inflation, deflation, and underperforms a bit with positive returns in a booming economy.

*Weight*

*Ticker*
*ETF Name*
*Investment Themes*

*30.00 %*

*VTI*
_Vanguard Total Stock Market_
Equity, U.S., Large Cap

*40.00 %*

*TLT*
_iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond_
Bond, U.S., Long-Term

*15.00 %*

*IEI*
_iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond_
Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term

*7.50 %*

*GLD*
_SPDR Gold Trust_
Commodity, Gold

*7.50 %*

*GSG*
_iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust_
Commodity, Broad Diversified





This looks super conservative but has returned almost as much stock market historically with much less volatility over the very long run.

http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allo...o-all-weather/

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## Madison320

> Here is a portfolio that accomplishes everything you just said. Does well in high inflation, deflation, and underperforms a bit with positive returns in a booming economy.
> 
> *Weight*
> 
> *Ticker*
> *ETF Name*
> *Investment Themes*
> 
> *30.00 %*
> ...



Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a INflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.

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## Warlord

> Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a deflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.


There will be a day of reckoning.

I can't tell you when it'll be.  Neither can Schiff or whoever biut it is surely coming.

Stocks can go to ZERO! ! 

That's why im holding gold for now and  not interested int the market despite historical gains.

The only thing I like to invest in is dividend paying emerging markets but its too risky right now.,..

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## Krugminator2

> Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a deflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.



If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct.   55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression. 

You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.

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## Prince Arthur

European Stock Markets Moving in Unison - 28th Feb 2020 

  Uncannily similar trends for the main European Stock Indices... 

  Who's pulling the strings? ﻿


FTSE100 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
EuroStoxx 50 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
DAX 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
CAC 40 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
AEX 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
IBEX35 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr



  Who's pulling the strings? ﻿

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## devil21

> If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct.   55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression. 
> 
> You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.


I don't think even Treasuries would withstand a deflationary depression for very long, since the intrinsic value of a Treasury issue is simply the masses' ability and willingness to continue to be economic engines of more debt and taxation.  Without jobs, there's no economic activity of the average body to maintain any "faith and credit" behind the Treasury instrument.  I could go off into a lecture of how Treasury instruments are created (birth certificates, ability to tax wages to generate interest payments, etc) but suffice it to say that no economic activity means no intrinsic value to a Treasury instrument.

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## Madison320

> If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct.   55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression. 
> 
> You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.


Oops!  I meant INflationary depression. Treasuries would become worthless and stocks would lose a ton of value if measured against something stable in value.

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## Madison320

> There will be a day of reckoning.
> 
> I can't tell you when it'll be.  Neither can Schiff or whoever biut it is surely coming.
> 
> Stocks can go to ZERO! ! 
> 
> That's why im holding gold for now and  not interested int the market despite historical gains.
> 
> The only thing I like to invest in is dividend paying emerging markets but its too risky right now.,..


Typo. I meant inflationary depression not deflationary!

It looks like the markets are expecting a .5% rate cut. Rate's will likely be back to 0% by the end of the year. Let's see if that's enough to stabilize things in the short run.

Like I've said a million times, until we get unbearable price inflation the Fed and the Govt are going to keep borrowing and printing.

And I'm guessing it'll show up first in gas prices.

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## Warlord

> Typo. I meant inflationary depression not deflationary!


Yeah it's basic economics. The increase in money supply eventually shows up in consumer prices.  They have got away with it for so long but it's going to a scale never seen before i.e 1.3 trillion dollar deficit.

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## oyarde

> Yeah it's basic economics. The increase in money supply eventually shows up in consumer prices.  They have got away with it for so long but it's going to a scale never seen before i.e 1.3 trillion dollar deficit.


I really cannot say I understand why it has not shown up more . Since it has not it makes it seem they can get by with more , longer .

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## devil21

> I really cannot say I understand why it has not shown up more . Since it has not it makes it seem they can get by with more , longer .


Price inflation also requires money velocity, not just a general increase in money supply.  If the money created doesn't make it to the general economy to be spent, and instead stays mostly on Wall St or in the accounts of DC crony contractors, the velocity component is missing.  What price inflation has surfaced has either been hidden by shrink-flation of goods (the "less is more" marketing narrative is all around us....ie Reese's Peanut Butter Cups that're filled with artificially flavored fake peanut butter filled Reese's Pieces instead of real peanut butter but still costs $2), tech advances (ie LED bulbs hide double and triple jumps in power prices) or has shown up in other ways like rents, insurance and automobile prices.

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## enhanced_deficit



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## Madison320

> Price inflation also requires money velocity, not just a general increase in money supply.  If the money created doesn't make it to the general economy to be spent, and instead stays mostly on Wall St or in the accounts of DC crony contractors, the velocity component is missing.  What price inflation has surfaced has either been hidden by shrink-flation of goods (the "less is more" marketing narrative is all around us....ie Reese's Peanut Butter Cups that're filled with artificially flavored fake peanut butter filled Reese's Pieces instead of real peanut butter but still costs $2), tech advances (ie LED bulbs hide double and triple jumps in power prices) or has shown up in other ways like rents, insurance and automobile prices.


I agree. I think the ultra low velocity is giving us a false sense of security.

All things being equal if you double the supply of cows or shells or paper or gold or whatever is being used as money, prices will eventually double.

We've more than quadrupled the money supply over the last 10 years and now we're printing again. So basic logic tells us that prices will eventually have to catch up.

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## oyarde

Coronavirs death rate is estimated at 3.4 percent . Higher than inflation or growth.

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## devil21

> Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated.  It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.


Happened again today.  Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky.  Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bull$#@!, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.

Rinse and repeat.

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## Warlord

> Happened again today.  Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky.  Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bull$#@!, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.
> 
> Rinse and repeat.


And gold selling off as well.

Oil crashing : down 7%

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## devil21

> And gold selling off as well.
> 
> Oil crashing : down 7%


That's a huge move for oil.  Gold has recovered.  The oil moves strike me as the real start of the decoupling of the petrodollar standard.  Russia vetoing a production cut shows cracks in OPEC and Russia (a non-OPEC member even) taking an outsized influence on OPEC's decisions.

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## Warlord

> That's a huge move for oil.  Gold has recovered.  The oil moves strike me as the real start of the decoupling of the petrodollar standard.  Russia vetoing a production cut shows cracks in OPEC and Russia (a non-OPEC member even) taking an outsized influence on OPEC's decisions.


Oil futures finished down 10% , now $41.

That should screw the Saudi's and the Sheikdom's who got drunk on $80-100 oil.

Also could harm frackers who will find it hard to extract based on that price.

Interesting times.

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## Madison320

> Oil futures finished down 10% , now $41.
> 
> That should screw the Saudi's and the Sheikdom's who got drunk on $80-100 oil.
> 
> Also could harm frackers who will find it hard to extract based on that price.
> 
> Interesting times.


I've got a lot of oil related stuff that I'm getting killed on, but in the long run I think I'll be fine. Personally I think it should be closer to $200 a barrel based on all the inflation and the fact that it's a finite supply.

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## Danke

> This maybe the first time bears ever get something right.
> 
> Of course, I am leveraged long. You have had one crash in 1987. Every other time the market immediately recovers.   Never pays to be a bear on stocks as a group. Gut feeling is market rallies 5% from here over the next week. 
> 
>  If I am wrong and take a mega loss, I will say good job to bears. There certainly are tons of fundamental reasons for stocks to go down. Goldman Sachs just said zero growth in earnings this year because of the virus vs the expected 7%. Stocks were already overvalued to start. So tons of reasons.
> 
> But VIX hit 49 today. And the oscillators are at not seen before oversold levels.  Not even 2008 in the financial crisis. To me the is all in long. If you lose your ass, part of the game. But I don't think you will see an opportunity in your lifetime this good as today.






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dFB...ture=emb_title

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## devil21

> Happened again today.  Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky.  Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bull$#@!, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.
> 
> Rinse and repeat.


Happened again today.  After dumping entire 1000 points gain at the open and eventually going negative, Trump popped up on camera and immediately the Dow rebounded back into the positive, tried repeatedly to go negative again but was NOT allowed to by a "hidden hand" and stayed up the rest of the day.  The PPT/ESF completely controls this entire "market".

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## PRB

you ain't seen nothin yet.

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## oyarde

> you ain't seen nothin yet.


Are you expecting a 30k Dow ?

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## Krugminator2

Think SPY at 276 goes up solidly by next monday from here

This time in the markets is unprecedented. More fear than 2008. Highly doubt things are this bad.

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## Krugminator2

Think combination of Fed cuts in US and around the world and Trump will bring out bazooka with fiscal stimulus seems like this fear has to be overdone. Never seen anything close to this.

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## devil21

> Think SPY at 276 goes up solidly by next monday from here
> 
> This time in the markets is unprecedented. More fear than 2008. Highly doubt things are this bad.


Markets are forward-looking.  Is it "bad" right now?  Not really but there are signs of a drop-off underway.  How will the economy look in 2-3 months?  How will earnings season look?  Whether the virus is a real threat to society or not is mostly irrelevant.  The fear being generated by media and .gov are making for a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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## RonZeplin

*

Oil Wars Combines with Covid-19 and Creates Wrecking Ball*

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## Warlord

Dow DOWN 1400 points.

WOW!

It's not even Friday yet.

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## Krugminator2

VIX is super complacent right now. Held at 52-54 for hours. Probably need to spike into 60s for the bottom today. so probably another few percent down.

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## Brian4Liberty

> Dow DOWN 1400 points.
> 
> WOW!
> 
> It's not even Friday yet.


Black Hump Day.

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## oyarde

We are currently at the full 20 percent correction from the high a few weeks ago .

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## Brian4Liberty

Apparently all kinds of margin calls happening. People need to raise cash, so they sell bonds and gold. 10 year Treasury yield inches up...

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## Voluntarist

Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

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## Warlord

> Apparently all kinds of margin calls happening. People need to raise cash, so they sell bonds and gold. 10 year Treasury yield inches up...


Gold getting hammered again.  What's going on?  @devil21 needs to check in!

Last week it also sold off then rallied strongly.

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## Voluntarist

Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

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## TheTexan

> @TheTexan ... What's with all these people voting (with their wallets) against America?
> 
> ... Well, maybe it's not really voting. It's not like they got an official "I Voted" sticker or anything.


Exactly, you answered your own question.  It's not voting unless you get a sticker.

That said, America-hating commies will buy just about anything.  A Great American buys American.

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## RonZeplin

> Gold getting hammered again.  What's going on?  @devil21 needs to check in!
> 
> Last week it also sold off then rallied strongly.


Plunge Protection Team, aka President's Working Group on Financial Markets.   

Buy as much PM's as you can now, the price in fiat dollars will skyrocket soon.   IOW, yo cash ain't nothing but trash.

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## Warlord

> Plunge Protection Team, aka President's Working Group on Financial Markets.   
> 
> Buy as much PM's as you can now, the price in fiat dollars will skyrocket soon.   IOW, yo cash ain't nothing but trash.


Buying as much as I can afford when paid. I buy 0.25 ounce Krugerrand's.  Decent premium and easily traded when SHTF!

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## Krugminator2

Not going to lie this was the worst few weeks financially of my life. Lost a staggering amount on casinos, cruise ships and shorting the VIX.  I nailed shorting treasuries and caught the market bounces but not even close to the losses on the other three. That said, trying to be as objective as I can be. I think the market has a historic rally.   The breadth indexes I look at are either the lowest in history or second lowest.

$NYMO has had four of its lowest 15 readings in history in a two week stretch. Nothing close has happened. $NYAD is the lowest in history. I look at the bullish percent index and financials are at the same low level as when Lehman Brothers fell. The Fed has upped their repos substantially. They are likely to go big on the next cut. I think Trump will sell positive BS on TV tonight and promise the world. The VIX has held very high levels for an extended period of time. The pattern of big down day, big up day, big down day tends to be pretty bullish. This is the fastest 20 percent correction in history and you still have a zillion people who think it will go down another 10%.

There are just so many indicators right now that scream bullish. The dumb money index that Sentimentrader puts out is the most bearish ever and smart money is very bullish.  Tons of gap downs clustered tends to indicate excessive fear. The last 7 Fridays have been down which tends to mark bottoms because people are scared of event risk to hold over the weekend.  Two days ago was one of the worst days in market history. Those usually mark bottoms or a slight residual bottom before sharp rally. 

Gut feel is the World Health Organization calling this a pandemic marks this as a low.

----------


## Madison320

> Not going to lie this was the worst few weeks financially of my life. Lost a staggering amount on casinos, cruise ships and shorting the VIX.  I nailed shorting treasuries and caught the market bounces but not even close to the losses on the other three. That said, trying to be as objective as I can be. I think the market has a historic rally.   The breadth indexes I look at are either the lowest in history or second lowest.
> 
> $NYMO has had four of its lowest 15 readings in history in a two week stretch. Nothing close has happened. $NYAD is the lowest in history. I look at the bullish percent index and financials are at the same low level as when Lehman Brothers fell. The Fed has upped their repos substantially. They are likely to go big on the next cut. I think Trump will sell positive BS on TV tonight and promise the world. The VIX has held very high levels for an extended period of time. The pattern of big down day, big up day, big down day tends to be pretty bullish. This is the fastest 20 percent correction in history and you still have a zillion people who think it will go down another 10%.
> 
> There are just so many indicators right now that scream bullish. The dumb money index that Sentimentrader puts out is the most bearish ever and smart money is very bullish.  Tons of gap downs clustered tends to indicate excessive fear. The last 7 Fridays have been down which tends to mark bottoms because people are scared of event risk to hold over the weekend.  Two days ago was one of the worst days in market history. Those usually mark bottoms or a slight residual bottom before sharp rally. 
> 
> Gut feel is the World Health Organization calling this a pandemic marks this as a low.


I'm getting hammered as well. I'm beating the average but not by much.

----------


## Warlord

I have gold and cash only...

----------


## Warlord

I'm predicting this Friday will indeed be a black one...

----------


## devil21

> Not going to lie this was the worst few weeks financially of my life. Lost a staggering amount on casinos, cruise ships and shorting the VIX.  I nailed shorting treasuries and caught the market bounces but not even close to the losses on the other three. That said, trying to be as objective as I can be. I think the market has a historic rally.   The breadth indexes I look at are either the lowest in history or second lowest.
> 
> $NYMO has had four of its lowest 15 readings in history in a two week stretch. Nothing close has happened. $NYAD is the lowest in history. I look at the bullish percent index and financials are at the same low level as when Lehman Brothers fell. The Fed has upped their repos substantially. They are likely to go big on the next cut. I think Trump will sell positive BS on TV tonight and promise the world. The VIX has held very high levels for an extended period of time. The pattern of big down day, big up day, big down day tends to be pretty bullish. This is the fastest 20 percent correction in history and you still have a zillion people who think it will go down another 10%.
> 
> There are just so many indicators right now that scream bullish. The dumb money index that Sentimentrader puts out is the most bearish ever and smart money is very bullish.  Tons of gap downs clustered tends to indicate excessive fear. The last 7 Fridays have been down which tends to mark bottoms because people are scared of event risk to hold over the weekend.  Two days ago was one of the worst days in market history. Those usually mark bottoms or a slight residual bottom before sharp rally. 
> 
> Gut feel is the World Health Organization calling this a pandemic marks this as a low.


This post will not age well imo.

----------


## devil21

> I'm predicting this Friday will indeed be a black one...


Friday the 13th.  Knights Templar.

Number 23 is ALL OVER THE PLACE last couple days.  Probably pointing to 3/23, the Monday after Jesuit Skull and Bones favorite day of the year 3/22.

----------


## Warlord

> Friday the 13th.  Knights Templar.
> 
> Number 23 is ALL OVER THE PLACE last couple days.  Probably pointing to 3/23, the Monday after Jesuit Skull and Bones favorite day of the year 3/22.


That is scaring me....

The markets are basically crashing and Donald is floundering. I can't see him winning an election any itime soon.  The corporatist Democrats will be back in town. Comey, Clapper, McCabe and the whole crew. God help us.

----------


## Krugminator2

> This post will not age well imo.


It didn't age well 30 minutes after I wrote it. The market was down 8% from where I typed it when you wrote your post.

Still think market has a monster 10% rally but I've been wrong about a lot with this move.

----------


## devil21

> That is scaring me....
> 
> The markets are basically crashing and Donald is floundering. I can't see him winning an election any itime soon.  The corporatist Democrats will be back in town. Comey, Clapper, McCabe and the whole crew. God help us.


Expanding a bit:  Friday the 13th was when the Knights Templar were excommunicated, ordered rounded up by the Pope and all their wealth confiscated.  A short time later the 23rd and last (official) Grand Master Jacques deMolay was burned at the stake.  That's the origin of where the bad luck of number 13 and Friday the 13th comes from.  *23*  Entire modern banking system is based on the Templar's original trust and credit system.  Who did the Templars worship as God?  BAPHOMET

Oh and "Ides of March" is Sunday 15th, when Caesar was stabbed in the back by his own Senate.  hmm....

from wiki:



> The Ides of March was a day in the Roman calendar that corresponds to 15 March. It was marked by several religious observances and was notable for the Romans as a deadline for settling debts.

----------


## devil21

> It didn't age well 30 minutes after I wrote it. The market was down 8% from where I typed it when you wrote your post.
> 
> Still think market has a monster 10% rally but I've been wrong about a lot with this move.


The only thing that will spur a monster rally is a vaccine discovery announcement.  That will come at some point.  Whether one decides to take said vaccine is.....

----------


## RonZeplin

*Longest bull market in history officially ends - Ep 545

*


> *Off-Quality American Silver Eagles (Random Date)*
> 
>                                                                                                                                                                                       $17.60                                                                                                                         
>                                               Out of stock


Sold out of ASE's.

----------


## dannno

> *Biden is going to win*
> 
> 
> 
> *Longest bull market in history officially ends - Ep 545
> 
> *Sold out of ASE's.


No, he's not.

----------


## RonZeplin

> No, he's not.


So sad, Donnell is a big fat authoritarian Socialist loser like his next door neighbor Bernie.

----------


## devil21

Go look at all of the Dow 4pm closing numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/

_Do I really need to write it?_

------------------------------------------------


Rumors floating around the net that commercial lending is about to freeze up entirely, as major corps are raiding their credit lines for cash, presumably to maintain enough capital to service existing debts.  Taking more debt to service other debt is always a wise business move and surely will end well.

----------


## Warlord

Well today is Friday the 13th,

Grab the popcorn,  London opens in 1 hour

----------


## Warlord

FTSE up 200 points (4%)

No black Friday today

----------


## RonZeplin

> FTSE up 200 points (4%)
> 
> No black Friday today


Just a temp PPT surge to make the cliff higher, before the markets fall off of it. 




"The US is headed for a massive recession, stagflation."

----------


## devil21

1500 pts in 12 minutes!  I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.  

Trump:  "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."

Markets:  "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"


So tired of this manipulated bs.

----------


## Warlord

> 1500 pts in 12 minutes!  I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.  
> 
> Trump:  "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."
> 
> Markets:  "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"
> 
> 
> So tired of this manipulated bs.


Yeah it's tiresome. 

They have really pumped the market.  So instead of Black Friday it's Green Friday.

----------


## devil21

> Yeah it's tiresome. 
> 
> They have really pumped the market.  So instead of Black Friday it's Green Friday.


It'll head back off the cliff next week but seriously, they're not even trying to hide how rigged this stuff is.  They even timed the press conference to exactly give the markets time to be run up by the PPT and end right at the close so the selling pressure can't kick back in.  Scripted.

(more available testing is a double-edged sword since it could also reveal much wider spread infection, which is back to market negative.  any word on where all of that DNA from the mouth swabs will end up?)

----------


## RonZeplin



----------


## Krugminator2

> 1500 pts in 12 minutes!  I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.  
> 
> Trump:  "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."
> 
> Markets:  "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"
> 
> 
> So tired of this manipulated bs.



This is how markets behaved before there even was a Federal Reserve.  Markets just don't go to zero because you wish it that way.  At some point there are no more brain damaged people left to panic sell. And you always have people stepping in to buy at a discount to participate in the million percent a century upward drift that holding risky equities affords you.


The secret to making money was laid out in 1887. Don't remember a Fed in 1887. not always easy to do and occasionally you take big losses but works over time. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm




> “But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.
> 
> “Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.”

----------


## devil21

> This is how markets behaved before there even was a Federal Reserve.  Markets just don't go to zero because you wish it that way.  At some point there are no more brain damaged people left to panic sell. And you always have people stepping in to buy at a discount to participate in the million percent a century upward drift that holding risky equities affords you.


Right.  Nothing to do with trillion dollar injections and PPTs and timed press conferences.  Everyone and their brother decided to buy all stock indexes in unison 15 minutes before the close on a Friday during a national emergency.  Sounds legit.   

eta:  I could see people piling into Walmart/Walgreens/Pharma at the last minute based on the speech contents but the indexes started falling fast when Trump said the words "National Emergency", Dow it 550 then *bam* moonshot, 1400+ pts in minutes on nothing positive whatsoever.  Some pharma and drug stores stocks do not make for a 1500pt ramp.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Right.  Nothing to do with trillion dollar injections and PPTs and timed press conferences.  Everyone and their brother decided to buy all stock indexes in unison 15 minutes before the close on a Friday during a national emergency.  Sounds legit.



Correct. People time trades off of catalysts. The market was a coiled spring loaded to max to go up. You had a super stretched VIX and highest put/call ratio.  The market was going to have a rip your face off rally no matter what. It was just a matter of when.  People waited around for Trump's speech before the move was going to happen. He was so terrible sounding that the market tried to sell but it wanted up. It's just how things work. Most moves happen premarket and end of day. This happened end of day.

----------


## devil21

> Correct. People time trades off of catalysts. The market was a coiled spring loaded to max to go up. You had a super stretched VIX and highest put/call ratio.  The market was going to have a rip your face off rally no matter what. It was just a matter of when.  People waited around for Trump's speech before the move was going to happen. He was so terrible sounding that the market tried to sell but it wanted up. It's just how things work. Most moves happen premarket and end of day. This happened end of day.


I'm not buying it.  No sane person is loading up on anything right before the close over a weekend these days.  That's suicide.  Back in 2008 we had dead cat bounce days, so yes those are normal and to be expected.  The scripted and staged move today was just ridiculous.

Yeah yeah it's just the "market"...

----------


## Krugminator2

> I'm not buying it.  *No sane person is loading up on anything right before the close over a weekend these days*.  That's suicide.


The last seven friday's have closed down. That tends to be extremely bullish because it is a sign of fear of event risk. I didn't know if that would change today but I did know it is a positive sign for the market over the near term.




> Back in 2008 we had dead cat bounce days, so yes those are normal and to be expected. The scripted and staged move today was just ridiculous.


Actually 2008 had two rallies like this in October. The day after Lehman feel was like a 13% up day .  Look up a chart. October 10th to two days later rebounded 25%.   The low of October 26th or so rebounded 18.5%. November has a washout rally of 18%.

Some of the biggest rallies and up days in history were during the Great Depression.

----------


## dannno

> This is how markets behaved before there even was a Federal Reserve.  Markets just don't go to zero because you wish it that way.  At some point there are no more brain damaged people left to panic sell. And you always have people stepping in to buy at a discount to participate in the million percent a century upward drift that holding risky equities affords you.
> 
> 
> The secret to making money was laid out in 1887. Don't remember a Fed in 1887. not always easy to do and occasionally you take big losses but works over time. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm


I'm going to start using the word oftener.

----------


## devil21

> The last seven friday's have closed down. That tends to be extremely bullish because it is a sign of fear of event risk. I didn't know if that would change today but I did know it is a positive sign for the market over the near term.
> 
> 
> 
> Actually 2008 had two rallies like this in October. The day after Lehman feel was like a 13% up day .  Look up a chart. October 10th to two days later rebounded 25%.   The low of October 26th or so rebounded 18.5%. November has a washout rally of 18%.
> 
> Some of the biggest rallies and up days in history were during the Great Depression.


Like I said, dead cat bounce _days_ are normal and occurred in 2008.  They do not, however, organically rise 10% in the last 15 minutes at the close on a Friday _on no major news whatsoever_ unless the PPT is throwing the full force of the ESF at the indexes.  You even said that the last 7 Fridays have closed down.  There was nothing to change that sentiment.  The commentator in the video explains it well.  Of course he's labeled a tinfoil truther by the CNBC mouthpieces in response.  Not a chance that was anything other than a highly coordinated scripted act to moonshot the indexes right before the close after a brutal week.  

No matter, it's back off a cliff again shortly once the "test results" announce widespread infections.

----------


## PRB

> Are you expecting a 30k Dow ?


hell no.

I'm expecting it to break 19,000 today. 

Trump's legacy is effectively undone.

----------


## oyarde

> hell no.
> 
> I'm expecting it to break 19,000 today. 
> 
> Trump's legacy is effectively undone.


I think by tomorrow evening it has a chance to go under 19K

----------


## devil21

As an avid ticker watcher, I can 100% state that the markets are 100% controlled DAILY by the PPT now.  Check out the last week's charts where EVERY MORNING the markets want to go negative after a down day, they are IMMEDIATELY turned back green when they turn red.  EVERY TIME.  Two day sell-offs are not being allowed to occur even though markets clearly want to.  The entire thing is rigged.

The Fed will end up with full title to every stock.

----------


## oyarde

> As an avid ticker watcher, I can 100% state that the markets are 100% controlled DAILY by the PPT now.  Check out the last week's charts where EVERY MORNING the markets want to go negative after a down day, they are IMMEDIATELY turned back green when they turn red.  EVERY TIME.  Two day sell-offs are not being allowed to occur.  Such rigged bs.


Krugminator could be buying all of that .

----------


## devil21

> Krugminator could be buying all of that .


The moment the NYSE cleared all people off the floor and became completely computer controlled was the moment the NYSE was turned over entirely to the PPT and the charade of any "market" was over.  This is ridiculous and needs to stop.

----------


## oyarde

> The moment the NYSE cleared all people off the floor and became completely computer controlled was the moment the NYSE was turned over entirely to the PPT and the charade of any "market" was over.  This is ridiculous and needs to stop.


Ya , I don't see how you have a stock exchange with an empty pit .

----------


## devil21

> Ya , I don't see how you have a stock exchange with an empty pit .


Look at the top market movers today:  Casinos, cruise lines and airlines!  WTF kind of bizarro world $#@! is this?

----------


## oyarde

> Look at the top market movers today:  Casinos, cruise lines and airlines!  WTF kind of bizarro world $#@! is this?


airlines and cruise lines should be around 0 . However that would be assuming Americans were bright and we all know that is a stretch. So who knows ?

----------


## Krugminator2

> Krugminator could be buying all of that .






> The moment the NYSE cleared all people off the floor and became completely computer controlled was the moment the NYSE was turned over entirely to the PPT and the charade of any "market" was over. This is ridiculous and needs to stop.




I am hugely stuck and deserve ridicule and have been wrong about this whole thing, but.... still think we see the biggest short term up move in percentage terms in stock market history out of this.  I have a dozen or so indicators I look at and they are all off the charts historically. 

SPY at 239.5 right now.

----------


## oyarde

> I am hugely stuck and deserve ridicule and have been wrong about this whole thing, but.... still think we see the biggest short term up move in percentage terms in stock market history out of this.  I have a dozen or so indicators I look at and they are all off the charts historically. 
> 
> SPY at 239.5 right now.


I would not ridicule you . I hope you strike it rich .

----------


## Warlord

DOW falling fast...

----------


## Warlord

Oil now $19

----------


## devil21

> DOW falling fast...


They must have honored my demand to stop it lol.  It literally topped right after my last post.

----------


## Warlord

> They must have honored my demand to stop it lol.  It literally topped right after my last post.


Quite rare to see it fall so fast into the close.. Any idea what prompted it? I know the GOP are trying to pass a stimulus maybe it leaked and it wasn't good news..

----------


## devil21

> Quite rare to see it fall so fast into the close.. Any idea what prompted it? I know the GOP are trying to pass a stimulus maybe it leaked and it wasn't good news..


I'm stickin' with my story.

eta: @Warlord - CNBC just announced the first major hedge fund default and liquidation.

----------


## PRB

> DOW falling fast...


feel so good to see Trump trainers suffer. I am once again reminded of what it means to be a Ron Paul supporter : happy when people lose money for believing in a fraudulent system. It took me 12 years to see this day, but totally worth the wait. I'm sure many people have lived through WW2 and still can't say they've seen the same.

----------


## Krugminator2

> I am hugely stuck and deserve ridicule and have been wrong about this whole thing, but.... still think we see the biggest short term up move in percentage terms in stock market history out of this.  I have a dozen or so indicators I look at and they are all off the charts historically. 
> 
> SPY at 239.5 right now.



Not that this matters or I should get much credit but

*Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stoc...lose-news.html*

----------


## oyarde

> Not that this matters or I should get much credit but
> 
> *Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stoc...lose-news.html*


I saw that , back over 22K . These are big swings , fastest ever 30 percent drop , then best three days since 1931 .

----------


## devil21

> I saw that , back over 22K . These are big swings , fastest ever 30 percent drop , then best three days since 1931 .


It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-.  Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to.  As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher.  Then it's off to the races again.  Oil crashes again?  Stocks green.  Oil rises?  Stocks green.  I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines on the news they're going to take on more debt???

----------


## oyarde

> It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-.  Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to.  As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher.  Then it's off to the races again.  Oil crashes again?  Stocks green.  Oil rises?  Stocks green.  I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines???


Personally , I laugh at anyone buying cruise lines. I do not even consider that a legitimate business . No different than investing with a crack dealer I guess.

----------


## Krugminator2

> It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-.  Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to.  As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher.  Then it's off to the races again.  Oil crashes again?  Stocks green.  Oil rises?  Stocks green.  I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines on the news they're going to take on more debt???



You have end of quarter rebalancing. Pensions and stock and bond funds have to rebalance to get their target weight of stocks to bonds back into balance which means buying stocks which got hammered relative to bonds.

Longer term the combination of QE infinity and the big deficits are bullish for stocks. Everyone thinks is a bear market. We'll see. I will use one more selloff on negative virus news to buy with longer term money. The tables are set for a raging bull market over the next 12 months. Wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't go up like 1999. Everyone thought the market was done in 97 and 98 then you had a blowoff run up. This sell off seems like a potential fake out.

----------


## devil21

Jerome Powell just said with a straight face that all of the Fed programs have been instituted in order to allow markets to once again effectively price risk

----------


## Krugminator2

> SPY at 320 feels like a short. Should trade down at some point over the next week.



SPY hit 301. Absolute bloodbath. These "obvious" ideas always seem so much easier to implement in hindsight.

----------


## Madison320

> SPY hit 301. Absolute bloodbath. These "obvious" ideas always seem so much easier to implement in hindsight.


Today's selloff seemed to come out of nowhere. Luckily I don't trade short term.

One reason given was a "spike" in corona cases. But deaths keep falling. Personally I think cases rising and deaths falling is a good thing.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Today's selloff seemed to come out of nowhere. Luckily I don't trade short term.
> 
> One reason given was a "spike" in corona cases. But deaths keep falling. Personally I think cases rising and deaths falling is a good thing.


Instead of saying markets are the most overbought and speculative in history and a selloff was inevitable, articles always come up with some BS fundamental reason.

----------


## Madison320

> Instead of saying markets are the most overbought and speculative in history and a selloff was inevitable, articles always come up with some BS fundamental reason.


This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?

----------


## devil21

> This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?


More testing, though hospitalizations are reported as rising also.

I don't see how any of it matters since it's been proven that the tests are garbage, hospitals are lying about admissions and causes of death and there are questions about whether the tests that do sometimes work are detecting antibodies from past flu shots and recent bouts with regular flus and colds.

----------


## Krugminator2

> This is going off topic but it seems like the number of cases is diverging from the number of deaths. Cases are rising or at least leveling off but deaths continue to drop. It seems to me all the news is now switching from reporting cases not deaths. Coincidence?


The news media is disgusting. Fear and sensationalism sells.  They completely stopped covering the virus to cover the domestic terrorists.  Then now back to peddling fear even though summer is hitting and the death rate had dropped nationally.

----------


## Madison320

> More testing, though hospitalizations are reported as rising also.
> 
> I don't see how any of it matters since it's been proven that the tests are garbage, hospitals are lying about admissions and causes of death and there are questions about whether the tests that do sometimes work are detecting antibodies from past flu shots and recent bouts with regular flus and colds.


I'm wondering how much the overall increase in total US deaths will be for 2020. I'm been running some number thru my head and it seems like it's only going to rise by a percent or two. You'd think it was tripling listening to the news.

----------


## devil21

PPT computers on the job today.  Headline hit during JPow's Senate testimony that Beijing is closing down all schools for Covid resurgence.  All markets immediately fell off a cliff, Dow dropped from +800 to +90 in a few minutes, then 10, 20 and 30 point chunks immediately started trying to push it back up.  I could watch the algos continuously trying to sell-off but for every 10 point chunk drop a 20 point boost countered it.  The algos finally got the message that YOU WILL NOT GO RED and stopped selling.  Big chunks back up to +450, where it stayed.

Nothing resembling a market exists any more.  The entire thing is engineered and rigged.


A few points from JPow's testimony.
1.)  Credit markets have greatly improved but the Fed promised to buy corporate bonds months ago, which turned markets around, so we have to do it whether it's needed or not. 
2.)  Dem senators asked nothing but questions about how will JPow get black people those sweet, sweet Fed bux.  Election year 
3.)  When asked about expanding the balance sheet this far, this fast, how will it be unwound?  JPow replied "we don't think about that."

----------


## devil21

Dow and S&P closed red on a Friday.  AFAIK that hasn't happened in a long time.  Every effort was made to keep the numbers looking pretty over the weekends.

Rumors of June 21 and perhaps June 24 being interesting dates to watch.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Dow and S&P closed red on a Friday.  AFAIK that hasn't happened in a long time.  Every effort was made to keep the numbers looking pretty over the weekends.
> 
> Rumors of June 21 and perhaps June 24 being interesting dates to watch.


The market is still really strong. The stocks that have lead the rally (tech like Shopify Tesla and the biotech stocks) are still really strong.  Even though there are a lot speculative extremes major tops are a process that don't happen overnight.

----------


## Krugminator2

Some small cracks showing in the market. Shopify and Fasly down on a big up day in the market.   Tesla looks like a bit of a blowoff move. Decent odds of another gap up tomorrow. If the market gaps up and closes red tomorrow above average chance for start of a pull back. Nasdaq 22% above the 200 day. Vix closed up slightly on a big up day which has been a tell this year.

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## r3volution 3.0

> Some small cracks showing in the market. Shopify and Fasly down on a big up day in the market.   Tesla looks like a bit of a blowoff move. Decent odds of another gap up tomorrow. If the market gaps up and closes red tomorrow above average chance for start of a pull back. Nasdaq 22% above the 200 day. Vix closed up slightly on a big up day which has been a tell this year.




Mr. Crackhead Market needs another fix.

On the other hand...



...that might do it.

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## r3volution 3.0

The above notwithstanding, that being a short-term issue, I'd say that the risk is decidedly to the upside. 

Dow 50,000 is _far_ more likely than Dow 5,000.

The Fed will never allow the latter to happen, at least not for more than a day or two, or however long it takes to warm up the printers.

The Venezuelan stock market is up 270% YTD.

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## devil21

> The above notwithstanding, that being a short-term issue, I'd say that the risk is decidedly to the upside. 
> 
> Dow 50,000 is _far_ more likely than Dow 5,000.
> 
> The Fed will never allow the latter to happen, at least not for more than a day or two, or however long it takes to warm up the printers.
> 
> The Venezuelan stock market is up 270% YTD.


Whether we see 50k or 5k depends entirely on how long the Fed runs the printers before the FRN is wiped away and the dollar itself revalued/reset to their CBDC digital dollar.  I'm thinking it's not going to be nearly long enough to see 50K.  5K after a reset is more likely, imo.  I also think this is why coinage is being pulled from circulation under the Covid cover story.  A quarter dollar is a quarter dollar regardless of what happens to the FRN's official valuation.  After a, say, 10:1 revaluation, a quarter dollar coin becomes quite valuable.  I don't see them letting true hyperinflation take hold before a reset is done.  I forecast years ago that a reset to gold-backing (albeit now it looks like a gold-backed digital currency) would happen before real skyrocketing prices hyperinflation was allowed to happen and I'm sticking to it.  Most of the signals I'm seeing say that a reset isn't far off....late stage Treasury FRN looting, coins pulled, cash restricted, distractions galore, WEF's "Great Reset" website, gold and silver demand at institutional levels, Fed openly violating charter just to keep up illusion of functional markets, among others.  

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-money-is-done

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## Krugminator2

Alright. This is just obnoxious. The only time I can find the 10 day moving average of the put call ratio this low is two weeks before the flash crash in 2010.

Maybe this time is different for a variety of reasons. But there is strong evidence to believe Nasdaq will take a huge $#@! next couple of weeks. I don't care how much money the Fed is printing. I think 5% pull back seems doable from QQQ at 262.18. Down below 250.

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## r3volution 3.0

> Whether we see 50k or 5k depends entirely on how long the Fed runs the printers before the FRN is wiped away and the dollar itself revalued/reset to their CBDC digital dollar.  I'm thinking it's not going to be nearly long enough to see 50K.  5K after a reset is more likely, imo.  I also think this is why coinage is being pulled from circulation under the Covid cover story.  A quarter dollar is a quarter dollar regardless of what happens to the FRN's official valuation.  After a, say, 10:1 revaluation, a quarter dollar coin becomes quite valuable.  I don't see them letting true hyperinflation take hold before a reset is done.  I forecast years ago that a reset to gold-backing (albeit now it looks like a gold-backed digital currency) would happen before real skyrocketing prices hyperinflation was allowed to happen and I'm sticking to it.  Most of the signals I'm seeing say that a reset isn't far off....late stage Treasury FRN looting, coins pulled, cash restricted, distractions galore, WEF's "Great Reset" website, gold and silver demand at institutional levels, Fed openly violating charter just to keep up illusion of functional markets, among others.  
> 
> http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-money-is-done


I don't see a return to gold even if the alternative is hyperinflation.

It would mean the greatest liquidation in world history. Among other effects, entitlements and pensions would collapse.

 And that makes for a_ very_ tough slog come reelection time, and I think we know where the politicians' priorities lie. 

But, if you're right, gold will have to be revalued to an _extraordinarily_ high level. 

So, whether that happens, or, as I expect, we stagger into stagflation, gold and the like is the place to be.

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## r3volution 3.0

> Alright. This is just obnoxious. The only time I can find the 10 day moving average of the put call ratio this low is two weeks before the flash crash in 2010.
> 
> Maybe this time is different for a variety of reasons. But there is strong evidence to believe Nasdaq will take a huge $#@! next couple of weeks. I don't care how much money the Fed is printing. I think 5% pull back seems doable from QQQ at 262.18. Down below 250.


How are you playing it? Have you sold stock, bought puts?

I've toyed with the idea, but I can't bring myself to risk losing the upside.

We're entering a world of extreme volatility. 

We could wake up tomorrow and find that the Fed monetized half the bond market.

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## Krugminator2

> How are you playing it? Have you sold stock, bought puts?
> 
> I've toyed with the idea, but I can't bring myself to risk losing the upside.
> 
> We're entering a world of extreme volatility. 
> 
> We could wake up tomorrow and find that the Fed monetized half the bond market.



Scaling in slowly. Shorted qqq small two days ago.  Bought puts yesterday and today. Not going to add right now.  Don't feel great about it. Even though everything is up not really climaxy moves. 

Watching Fsly, gsx, lvgo for red days to short.  Also looking at all electric car stocks to short bldp tsla blnk nio solo. There is probably a 90% chance gsx is a total fraud and a zero and everyone knows it but it is 90 bucks because the market doesn't care. Tech bubble valuations right now.

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## Krugminator2

> How are you playing it? Have you sold stock, bought puts?
> 
> I've toyed with the idea, but I can't bring myself to risk losing the upside.
> 
> We're entering a world of extreme volatility. 
> 
> We could wake up tomorrow and find that the Fed monetized half the bond market.



A small number of stocks are causing this melt up. Stay at home stocks and tech stocks like electric vehicles.

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## r3volution 3.0

Speaking of inflation and deflation, I have to speak ill of my fellow gold bugs for a moment. A persistent myth in the community is that gold does well in both inflation and deflation. This is largely based on the fact that gold did extremely well during the Great Depression, and on a misunderstanding of that fact. Gold did well then because _gold was money_; the dollar was gold, gold was the dollar. Gold did well in that deflationary collapse for the same reason that today the dollar rallies when stocks fall. This is no longer relevant. As we saw in 08 and just recently, gold is liquidated for cash during deflationary events (though perhaps not as much as many other assets). If you're expecting a second Great Depression, gold isn't a good bet. On the other hand, if you expect a second 1970s, with the Fed printing obscene amounts of money to prevent deflationary collapse, there's your case for gold.

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## devil21

> No idea. I would be pretty skeptical of anyone says they know. I don't guess at those big macro things because I will probably be wrong 80 percent of the time. It would seem like we should finally have price inflation  given how aggressive the Fed has been.  But if this is an asset bubble and it pops then that would be deflationary.


Price inflation requires both increase in money supply and increase in velocity.  Velocity has been retarded by all the Covid reopening restriction nonsense.  50% occupancy rules, less people spending because it's just a hassle, etc.  Very little of the Covid money creation has made it to the real economy and what has is restricted from picking up velocity by lack of spending options.




> If you're expecting a second Great Depression, gold isn't a good bet.


The other option is gold becomes money backing again, after the deflation and inflation cycles play out and kill the FRN.

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## r3volution 3.0

> Silver hit a multi-year high today, 19.99, on an unrelated note...


Make that $23.

Off to the races folks.

The parabolic move back in 2010-11 played out in a mere 8 months; we could easily be at $50 by year's end.

....though I sincerely hope not, as I have more buying to do.

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## devil21

For anyone that follows the occultist banker's love of (mostly biblical) numbers, the recent market closing numbers are chock full of possible sell signals.  3300 SP500 close on 11.9 point gain today.  Yesterday Dow close was 26,664.  Close to the magic number 11XXX on broad NASDAQ and it's already past 11,000 on the NASDAQ 100.  That's a lot of their favorite numbers all bunched up together.

The numbers aren't always an indicator but they sometimes are, especially when you see them lining up.  The hard part is determining what the numbers may translate to on their market manipulations.  Recall that during the first sell-off I posted about March 22 being an approaching ominous date (Skull and Bones '322', which is reference to Genesis 3:22).  The bottom was the next day 3/23.  (eta:  The sell-off started on 2/24, day after 2/23).  I anticipated the date meant a bigger sell-off but was wrong.  It marked the bottom, when the Fed stepped in and performed its "money magic".  They run most of this stuff by the (biblical) numbers and use the numbers as inside signals.  The numbers are lining up again.

(btw, Trump is constantly surrounded by the number 88.  8/8?  Meh probably nothing.)

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## devil21



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## RJB

Black Friday is a cool song.

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## Anti Globalist

Guessing because of the coronavirus people won't be doing Black Friday this year.

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## oyarde

> Guessing because of the coronavirus people won't be doing Black Friday this year.


2020 has been cancelled due to plague

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