# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Is this a buyers real estate market?

## Rock Sexton

I had this knucklehead friend (who's a realtor) dristro blast everyone he knew with a text message, basically trying to fish for a real estate deal or two.........ra ra'ing today's real estate market as having hit bottom and it's a buyer's paradise.

Working in this industry, my perspective might be tad ironic, but my job doesn't prevent me from seeing the writing on the wall. Yes supply is high and prices are low errrrrrr have LOWERED, but home prices as compared to income are still ridiculously out of whack. And we know why this easy in the first place....... because of the false economy created upon home equity.

Job losses are mounting, although he insists we're only at 7% unemployment (which is "healthy" as he so elequently put it.).....loan modifications are failing at a high rate....... option arms have yet to reset....... the fall out from the commercial real estate market hasn't happened yet ........

He gave me this shpeel that we're out in Scottsdale, AZ where it's sunny 350 days out of the year and living here is high priority and that my concerns are strictly fear mongering........that there's nothing to be concerned about so run out there and buy a property because prices have come down and let's be honest - he gets paid for it.

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## TER

sounds like your friend needs business.  From what I'm understanding, the housing market is 1-2 years away from hitting bottom.

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## phill4paul

Just talked with my roomate (a realtor) about this earlier.

  In a nutshell: It *is* a buyers market. If you have the ability there are great deals to be made. It all depends on your expectations.

  If your are speculating..then it depends. It depends if you think the the economy is gonna downgrade further or if it will stabilize. It all depends on your expectations.

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## liberteebell

> Just talked with my roomate (a realtor) about this earlier.
> 
>   In a nutshell: It *is* a buyers market. If you have the ability there are great deals to be made. It all depends on your expectations.
> 
>   If your are speculating..then it depends. It depends if you think the the economy is gonna downgrade further or if it will stabilize. It all depends on your expectations.


+1


There are great deals out there but you have to do your homework and look for the deals.

And yeah, I'm a Realtor and I know enough about what's going on to know that we could be a ways from the bottom.  I feel like I'm lying to people if I say, "it's a great time to buy!"  So my business sucks.   

If your expectation is a short-term investment or to use your house as an ATM, forget it.  Another story if you're actually looking for a long-term investment and a roof over your head.

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## phill4paul

> +1
> 
> 
> There are great deals out there but you have to do your homework and look for the deals.
> 
> And yeah, I'm a Realtor and I know enough about what's going on to know that we could be a ways from the bottom.  I feel like I'm lying to people if I say, "it's a great time to buy!"  So my business sucks.   
> 
> If your expectation is a short-term investment or to use your house as an ATM, forget it.  Another story if you're actually looking for a long-term investment and a roof over your head.


  Thats exactly what my friend said. Shelter>Investment.

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## Paulitician

My brother bought a house a few months ago here in the central valley of California. And we were discussing the propects of continual falling house prices, as well as rising rates.  He didn't really care to time the market (he wasn't looking to speculate; he just wanted to settle down at that time), but I think he could have waited a bit more to get a better deal.  Overall, I think he made a good choice given the information we had at the time.

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## phill4paul

> +1
> 
> 
> There are great deals out there but you have to do your homework and look for the deals.
> 
> And yeah, I'm a Realtor and I know enough about what's going on to know that we could be a ways from the bottom.  I feel like I'm lying to people if I say, "it's a great time to buy!"  So my business sucks.   
> 
> If your expectation is a short-term investment or to use your house as an ATM, forget it.  Another story if you're actually looking for a long-term investment and a roof over your head.


  BTW I'm talking with my friend right now. She admires your ethics and I can vouch she is the same. She says it is ethics that get the referrals.

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## slamminshaun

No, this is NOT a buyer's market.  Anyone who supports Austrian theory knows this.  If you need all the reasons why, check this guy's website out, he really sums it up....

www.patrick.net

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## Rock Sexton

> sounds like your friend needs business.  From what I'm understanding, the housing market is 1-2 years away from hitting bottom.


That's exactly what it is.......just more covering up of piles of sh*t with gold paint.

The worst is when you get into these kinds of conversations and you just know that the other person's opinion is skewed by the dependence of his pay check upon the success of the very subject in question.

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## phill4paul

> That's exactly what it is.......just more covering up of piles of sh*t with gold paint.
> 
> The worst is when you get into these kinds of conversations and you just know that the other person's opinion is skewed by the dependence of his pay check upon the success of the very subject in question.



 Hence, ethics. I don't know, my friend has had a really sh*tty year. Her earnings are down to less than a quarter of her former years. She has supplemented the loss by bar-tending and is now working on getting re-certification as a teacher to work as a substitute.

  I have seen her cut her own throat and waive her fee to help someone she felt needed it.  

  Because of this, in these tough times, a call from a referral has saved her butt when it was hangin'.

  Because of this, I trust her advise. Your experience is based on your expectations.

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## seapilot

Remember back in 06 a person I know was bragging how much thier house was appreciating since they bought it in 05. Well they are not bragging anymore, just talked again with this same person and they told me its the bottom of the market. 

Figure when this person is crying and screaming about how bad an investment they made, that they think housing will never stop going down is when the bottom is in.

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## pa33

Seems to me it won't be a good time to buy until the avg home price goes back to around $125k - $150k in 2009 FRNs.

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## dwdollar

It's not.  He who says otherwise is a fool or a liar.  

We're just now entering the foreclosure glut.

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## slamminshaun

Anytime a member of the Realtor Association makes a statement, think about this chart.....

http://bp0.blogger.com/_SfxDExxUukY/...ef=patrick.net

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## Rock Sexton

I took issue with the whole thing when he started lecturing me about "fear mongering."

It was funny because after I received his text, I immediately responded and told him that he was out of his mind if he thinks we've hit bottom. I tried to connect the dots for him, but he wasn't having any of it. He left me a nasty voice mail telling me how successful he has been in this market and in stocks, so he knows when it's time to buy. He completely disregarded inflation, unemployment, the abuse of our credit system........just everything we've come to know about why all this has happened.

I ended up calling him back late last night and had about an hours worth of a heated argument. I made it clear to him that what he was doing was strictly because his paycheck is counting on it. I even quoted him some of the valley's top real estate experts and economists were saying, specifically about AZ's real estate market, but he still wouldn't listen.

To make matters worse, he told me that we shouldn't look back at history (like Japan in the 80's), that there's no connection. He said that this is the system we live in and there's no changing it. He even asked me, would I rather make money or live homeless. I couldn't believe this kid. His mind is warped. It's a reflection of many people who haven't taken the time out to educate themselves and they're afraid to think for themselves and make a change. I flat out told him that I would do my part to try and change this exploitation of the people, the false economy created upon home equity...... all he could say is why would you want to do that when there's no telling if I'd ever succeed, but instead I could "live now" and make some money.

The conversation ended when he told me that I'd regret not getting in the investment property "steals" that are available right now and wanted to know what I'd rather do with my money. I told him I'd rather save or switch it to something that's going to protect my purchasing power. He then hung up the phone.

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## liberteebell

> BTW I'm talking with my friend right now. She admires your ethics and I can vouch she is the same. She says it is ethics that get the referrals.


Then please give your friend a heart-felt THANK YOU from me!  Unfortunately, in this profession, I've run across some people with very questionable ethics, which gives all of us a bad name.  I hope that we with good ethics get some referrals!

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## slamminshaun

> The conversation ended when he told me that I'd regret not getting in the investment property "steals" that are available right now and wanted to know what I'd rather do with my money. I told him I'd rather save or switch it to something that's going to protect my purchasing power. He then hung up the phone.


Forward that link I posted (a few posts up) and ask him what he thinks about it.  Why is now any different than before?

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## Rock Sexton

> Forward that link I posted (a few posts up) and ask him what he thinks about it.  Why is now any different than before?


Trying, but he won't respond.

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## lbadragan

> Seems to me it won't be a good time to buy until the avg home price goes back to around $125k - $150k in 2009 FRNs.


 Can you please give me the source of this graph? Thanks!

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## AmericasLastHope

The real estate market will bottom in December of 2009.  That is when the buyer's market begins.

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## LibForestPaul

> I had this knucklehead friend (who's a realtor) dristro blast everyone he knew with a text message, basically trying to fish for a real estate deal or two.........ra ra'ing today's real estate market as having hit bottom and it's a buyer's paradise.
> 
> Working in this industry, my perspective might be tad ironic, but my job doesn't prevent me from seeing the writing on the wall. Yes supply is high and prices are low errrrrrr have LOWERED, but home prices as compared to income are still ridiculously out of whack. And we know why this easy in the first place....... because of the false economy created upon home equity.
> 
> Job losses are mounting, although he insists we're only at 7% unemployment (which is "healthy" as he so elequently put it.).....loan modifications are failing at a high rate....... option arms have yet to reset....... the fall out from the commercial real estate market hasn't happened yet ........
> 
> He gave me this shpeel that we're out in Scottsdale, AZ where it's sunny 350 days out of the year and living here is high priority and that my concerns are strictly fear mongering........that there's nothing to be concerned about so run out there and buy a property because prices have come down and let's be honest - he gets paid for it.


There exists a video on youtube where Schiff is stating that we are heading for a bust. And everyone is laughing at him stating that he is fear mongering.
You are correct, your friend is desperate. But for the short term, house prices likely will be stable...at least 1 yr, maybe 2. But the real crash is coming, and it will be horrible.

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## LibForestPaul

Stocks, Futures, Derivatives, all of these are just paper.


Gold is real.
Real estate is real. ( Though manipulated through actions of Feds)

So the rest need to be destroyed and the credit of the Feds needs to dry up before real estate hits its true value.

Notice how gold is declining. why? (Dollar manipulation?)

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## icon124

> Stocks, Futures, Derivatives, all of these are just paper.
> 
> 
> Gold is real.
> Real estate is real. ( Though manipulated through actions of Feds)
> 
> So the rest need to be destroyed and the credit of the Feds needs to dry up before real estate hits its true value.
> 
> Notice how gold is declining. why? *(Dollar manipulation?)*



I'm so tired of people blaming things on the evil people who manipulate to benefit the elite....

The fact is America IS the safest place to invest right now, so when you have that flock to the dollar you have an increase.

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## pa33

> Can you please give me the source of this graph? Thanks!


http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/

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## Zippyjuan

The market certainly favors buyers over sellers right now.  Are we at the bottom of the market yet? Probably not although the monthly percent that prices decline is getting smaller.  Nobody can tell you for sure when we are at the bottom- you will only know after the bottom has been passed.  The question is are you looking to buy a house and why?  If not, the question is moot.  If yes, you are looking for a home is it for a place you intend to live in for several years and an you afford it?  If this is yes, then buy the house and enjoy it.  If you intend to sell again in a couple of years, stay where you are or rent.   If you are thinking about buying one for an investment, the only real way you can make money on that is to rent it out.  Check out your total monthly costs (including mortgage, maintainance costs, and property taxes) and see if you can charge enough to be able to cover all that in eight or nine monthly rental payments (see what local rents are).  If you can cover that then it may be worh buying.

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## LibForestPaul

> I'm so tired of people blaming things on the evil people who manipulate to benefit the elite....
> 
> The fact is America IS the safest place to invest right now, so when you have that flock to the dollar you have an increase.


Obviously, the rich and powerful are benevolent and are NOT going to look out for their own asses. They care about you and your family.

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## Rock Sexton

Real quick.........as far as home values are concerned..........

Right now values are dropping like rocks because of the over supply and looks like it will continue to do so for at least another year to two if not more........... what then happens to the value of a new home after it's been purchased right now.  I guess one question is it depends on which market.  But outside of that, what is going to happen when some of the monetary supply is infiltrated by the new money?  So we would essentially have an over-supply and more inflation right? What is that effect on values?

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## Zippyjuan

The cost of housing is part of the measure of inflation.  If housing prices are still rising, that will be a damper on the rate of inflation.  Remember a few month ago when people were complaining that the price of gas and food were rising and the rate of inflation was not indicating anywhere near that rate of increase?  It was the falling prices of housing which helped off-set the rising food prices.   Food is only about 15% of a household's expenses so it is given about a 15% weight in the CPI.  Housing accounts for probably half or more of the household budget (I don't have an exact number for that- I believe it could be even higher) so it gets a considerably higher weighting in the CPI. 

If housing prices have stabilized and inflation starts to pick up, the price of housing will probably rise more slowly than the price of other goods for a while.  Housing is based on supply and demand.  If people are being squeezed by higher prices for other goods the demand for housing is probably not going to soar meaning prices for them will probably not rise.  Historically the price of homes have not risen as fast as the rise in prices for other goods.

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## theoakman

> The cost of housing is part of the measure of inflation.  If housing prices are still rising, that will be a damper on the rate of inflation.  Remember a few month ago when people were complaining that the price of gas and food were rising and the rate of inflation was not indicating anywhere near that rate of increase?  It was the falling prices of housing which helped off-set the rising food prices.   Food is only about 15% of a household's expenses so it is given about a 15% weight in the CPI.  Housing accounts for probably half or more of the household budget (I don't have an exact number for that- I believe it could be even higher) so it gets a considerably higher weighting in the CPI. 
> 
> If housing prices have stabilized and inflation starts to pick up, the price of housing will probably rise more slowly than the price of other goods for a while.  Housing is based on supply and demand.  If people are being squeezed by higher prices for other goods the demand for housing is probably not going to soar meaning prices for them will probably not rise.  Historically the price of homes have not risen as fast as the rise in prices for other goods.


that's not true.  The government excludes housing from their inflation numbers.  They use "owner equivalent rent".  If the government actually included housing the CPI, inflation would have been running at double digits in 2004.

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## danberkeley

> that's not true.  The government excludes housing from their inflation numbers.  They use "owner equivalent rent".  If the government actually included housing the CPI, inflation would have been running at double digits in 2004.


This.

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## Zippyjuan

Thank you for correcting me on that.  Housing is a component of the CPI but as you say it is converted to rents- what a homeowner might have had to pay if they rented their home.  Either way- rising inflation would probably not have a coresponding rise in the prices of homes.

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