# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Are 401K's safe?

## Madison320

What do you think the chances are that 401Ks (or any retirement account) gets raided when the dollar starts to crash? I think it's a numbers game. A lot of voters with retirement accounts would get seriously pissed off. On the other hand an even greater number of voters will have their government handouts reduced if we don't raid retirement accounts.

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## Acala

I think it is likely that IRAs and 401ks will, by increments, be pushed into government bonds "for your protection".  The banks, who administer those accounts will comply instantly.  And by the time most people realize they have been ripped off, it will be too late to do anything about it.

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## pcosmar

Define "safe".

When the US Dollar crashes. and IMF (or whoever) takes over,, they will do whatever they damn well please.

The money is all fake anyway.

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## oyarde

I still have some in mine ,have closed out the Mrs. , but safe ? No , I do not think so.

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## Lucille

It's already been proposed.  Cash out.  

Nothing is safe from this desperate, insatiable, all-consuming govt.  Nothing.  Not your life, not your liberty, not your property.

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## angelatc

> What do you think the chances are that 401Ks (or any retirement account) gets raided when the dollar starts to crash? I think it's a numbers game. A lot of voters with retirement accounts would get seriously pissed off. On the other hand an even greater number of voters will have their government handouts reduced if we don't raid retirement accounts.


The liberals have already started pushing to take the money. There have been Senate hearings on the topic. Once they get an idea, it's only a matter of time until they succeed in implementing it.

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## Tod

> I still have some in mine ,have closed out the Mrs. , but safe ? No , I do not think so.


When you say "closed out", you mean you paid the 10% penalty in addition to the taxes?

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## MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2

I think you're safer with an AR-15.

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## Zippyjuan

One person testifying at a Senate hearing proposed the idea which was immediately shot down (though some like to suggest that it is bigger than that and maybe a done deal- it is not).  IRAs and 401ks are not going to be seized.   Will their value move up and down and be risky for that reason?  Yes- all investments will do that.  

If the dollar is worthless then all things denominated in dollars -all bank acounts, and investments like IRAs and 401ks- will also be worthless so there will be nothing to "seize" anyways.

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## The Free Hornet

> When you say "closed out", you mean you paid the 10% penalty in addition to the taxes?


I thought the penalty ends up being like 20% or more.  Additionally, cashing out means losing future employer contributions (and I thought I would have to quit my job too - not gonna happen).  Maybe Acala is correct, they might incrementally push people towards "safe" investments that favor TPTB.  But raising taxes would be the easiest way to get 401 money.

More so, the 401 is tax deferred so cashing out now will increase the war chest.  Maybe in 40 years we will have come to our senses or the fake money is all gone as pcosmar suggests.

For now, I'm happy with my hands, and Uncle Sam's, off that account.

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## Zippyjuan

> When you say "closed out", you mean you paid the 10% penalty in addition to the taxes?


That could be expensive.  Say you had $10,000 in one. Ten percent penalty knocks you down to $9000 and then it counts as ordinary income for you.  If you are in a 25% tax bracket, you could lose another $2500 (not sure if the tax applies to amounts before or after the penalty is applied) or $2,025 which would drop your $1000 down to about $6500. They keep 20% as withholdings against the taxes.  You just lost $3500. Now if you wanted to put that into a different investment, it would have to go up by 46% just to break even (ignoring costs of the new investment) with what you had in the 401k (to get the $6500 back up to $10,000).  That is a big return you need. And that assumes that the 401k didn't grow at all in that time- otherwise you need even more growth to simply break even with keeping the account.

If you are seriously worried (and I am not),  I would not close the account but perhaps put any new money into something else and leave the money you already have in the 401k.

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## ghengis86

> That could be expensive.  Say you had $10,000 in one. Ten percent penalty knocks you down to $9000 and then it counts as ordinary income for you.  If you are in a 25% tax bracket, you could lose another $2500 (not sure if the tax applies to amounts before or after the penalty is applied) or $2,025 which would drop your $1000 down to about $6500. They keep 20% as withholdings against the taxes.  You just lost $3500. Now if you wanted to put that into a different investment, it would have to go up by 46% just to break even (ignoring costs of the new investment) with what you had in the 401k (to get the $6500 back up to $10,000).  That is a big return you need. And that assumes that the 401k didn't grow at all in that time- otherwise you need even more growth to simply break even with keeping the account.


This is the correct math for the most part (consider what portion is basis and gain). But people lost a lot more percentage wise in the 2008 crash. And 'losing' $3,500 is better than losing it all. 

But your math is good enough and should be considered by anyone who is wanting to cash out.

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## Zippyjuan

The 2008 losses hit nearly every investment and were out of your control.  You do have control over the losses from closing or not closing a 401k. Those are self-inflicted and can be avoided.

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## Madison320

> That could be expensive.  Say you had $10,000 in one. Ten percent penalty knocks you down to $9000 and then it counts as ordinary income for you.  If you are in a 25% tax bracket, you could lose another $2500 (not sure if the tax applies to amounts before or after the penalty is applied) or $2,025 which would drop your $1000 down to about $6500. They keep 20% as withholdings against the taxes.  You just lost $3500. Now if you wanted to put that into a different investment, it would have to go up by 46% just to break even (ignoring costs of the new investment) with what you had in the 401k (to get the $6500 back up to $10,000).  That is a big return you need. And that assumes that the 401k didn't grow at all in that time- otherwise you need even more growth to simply break even with keeping the account.
> 
> If you are seriously worried (and I am not),  I would not close the account but perhaps put any new money into something else and leave the money you already have in the 401k.


I'm seriously considering lowering my contribution from 15% to 4%, my employer matches 50% up to 4%.

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## Zippyjuan

Definalty take that employer match- free money! My employer doesn't offer me a match so I don't use our 401k plan (make my own investments outside of work including an IRA for tax purposes) but I do have (at least for now- who knows what the future may bring) a pension fund which are getting rarer these days.

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## Madison320

> If the dollar is worthless then all things denominated in dollars -all bank acounts, and investments like IRAs and 401ks- will also be worthless so there will be nothing to "seize" anyways.


I'm wondering what will happen if we have hyperinflation. I sold all my mutuals funds and now own only individual, mostly foreign stocks in my 401K. Suppose I have 100 shares of Toyota in my 401K and the dollar goes to zero. I still own 100 shares of Toyota, correct? Would I be able to sell those shares in another currency? 

That's one of the reasons I sold my mutual funds and bought individual stocks. If there's a crash it seems like it would be easier to handle an individual stock compared to a mutual fund. Especially if the investment company that manages the mutual fund goes bankrupt.

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## Zippyjuan

I am no stockbroker so I am guessing- but if you purchased the shares in US dollars on a US stock exchange, you would have to sell the shares and then take the money in dollars you get for them and convert that into foreign currency- paying costs for both transactions.

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## Shredmonster

Watch the govt. very very closely as changes have been discussed since 2003.   They would start with forcing you to invest 3 to 5% in treasuries most likely.

If and when this happens that will be the very day I close my accounts out, pay the taxes and buy gold.

You really can't make money with the corruption, manipulation and computer algorhythm trading anyway.  Believe me I follow this stuff.  Check out ZeroHedge.com some time for starters.  Basically you are just protecting capital if you are in cash in your account cause the market will eat you alive these days.

However, I look at it as making 30% on your money right off the bat as you don't have to pay taxes on that money.  Where are you going to make 30% in this market without being an insider at Goldman Sachs or JPM these days ?

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## The Gold Standard

Depends on what you mean by safe. If there is any sense of law and order remaining then your money should still be there. Of course, it won't be worth anything. Maybe you could cash it out and buy a sandwich with it.

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## Madison320

> I am no stockbroker so I am guessing- but if you purchased the shares in US dollars on a US stock exchange, you would have to sell the shares and then take the money in dollars you get for them and convert that into foreign currency- paying costs for both transactions.


With really high inflation, that's not a problem. When I sell my shares I'll get more more dollars, except they'll be devalued. But my purchasing power should remain about the same.

The interesting question is what happens with hyperinflation where the dollar actually becomes worthless and is no longer used? My hope is that I'd be able to trade my shares in "Toyota" for whatever currency is acceptable for both parties.

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## Zippyjuan

If the dollar is no longer used and your stocks are priced in dollars they will be worth nothing. But I don't see that happening.

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## Acala

People who held solid German stocks through the Weimar hyperinflation came out all right.  When you buy a share of equity in the company it remains a share regardless of what you purchased it with.  One share of company A is one share of Company A no matter what happens to the currency.  In fact, corporate equity is often not even purchased in dollars, being instead offered as part of a compensation package or as part of a purchase price of a business.  But I would want to hold the certificates if I were to stay in equities. 

That having been said, if I had money in equities I would be on the phone right now trying to liquidate them.  Penalty be damned.  The stock market is a bubble.  

The value of the dollar has had a reprieve due to the collapse of the Euro.  But the honeymoon will end.  I would turn stocks into dollars and start hunting for agricultural land to buy with the dollars while they retain value.

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## brandon

I don't see how this possibly could happen.  If they actually tried to move legislation like this, there would be a period of time after it leaves committee that people could act on the information (empty their 401ks) before it's voted on, which would end in the worst stock market crash the world has ever seen. I think most politicians want to avoid being responsible for that.

Edit: Oops I was responding specifically to the confiscation chatter

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## Acala

> I don't see how this possibly could happen.  If they actually tried to move legislation like this, there would be a period of time after it leaves committee that people could act on the information (empty their 401ks) before it's voted on, which would end in the worst stock market crash the world has ever seen. I think most politicians want to avoid being responsible for that.
> 
> Edit: Oops I was responding specifically to the confiscation chatter


Maybe.  But people are spooked by the withdrawal penalties.  People will only take that loss if they are convinced that they will suffer WORSE losses if they don't and that takes a level of foresight that is not in abundant supply.    

Besides, it isn't individuals that are holding up the stock market.  It is the Fed working through banks.  Look at the trade volumes.  The thing is almost dead in the water.

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## Pauls' Revere

When it comes to investments...nothing is safe, there are no guarantees.

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## Acala

> When it comes to investments...nothing is safe, there are no guarantees.


Some things are safer than others.  Cash in a Goldman Sachs account versus gold coins buried in the forest.  Big difference in safety.

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## Madison320

> People who held solid German stocks through the Weimar hyperinflation came out all right.  When you buy a share of equity in the company it remains a share regardless of what you purchased it with.  One share of company A is one share of Company A no matter what happens to the currency.


That's what I was guessing. It's good to hear someone else say it.





> That having been said, if I had money in equities I would be on the phone right now trying to liquidate them.  Penalty be damned.  The stock market is a bubble.  
> 
> The value of the dollar has had a reprieve due to the collapse of the Euro.  But the honeymoon will end.  I would turn stocks into dollars and start hunting for agricultural land to buy with the dollars while they retain value.


Isn't it really the dollar not the the stock market that's the bubble now? My feeling is that stocks will go up as the dollar loses value. Just not as fast as other prices so you will lose purchasing power. But if you're holding cash or bonds or treasuries, you'll get crushed. Personally I'm invested in foreign stocks and physical gold.

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## angelatc

> One person testifying at a Senate hearing proposed the idea which was immediately shot down (though some like to suggest that it is bigger than that and maybe a done deal- it is not).  IRAs and 401ks are not going to be seized.   Will their value move up and down and be risky for that reason?  Yes- all investments will do that.  
> 
> If the dollar is worthless then all things denominated in dollars -all bank acounts, and investments like IRAs and 401ks- will also be worthless so there will be nothing to "seize" anyways.


I don't think it's a done deal literally, but I think that the fact they invited the author of the plan to testify indicates that they at least consider the plan viable.  For all we know, they already have the plan drafted up and are waiting for a crisis to shove it through.  Sort of like the Iraq war plans.

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## Zippyjuan

> Maybe.  But people are spooked by the withdrawal penalties.  People will only take that loss if they are convinced that they will suffer WORSE losses if they don't and that takes a level of foresight that is not in abundant supply.    
> 
> Besides, it isn't individuals that are holding up the stock market.  It is the Fed working through banks.  Look at the trade volumes.  The thing is almost dead in the water.


Trade volume isn't that low. It is down slightly this year but not much below where it has been for the last ten years- see bar graph below chart at this link: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Edji+interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;  compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair  =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;   (image is flash so I can't copy it for you).

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## angelatc

> I thought the penalty ends up being like 20% or more.  Additionally, cashing out means losing future employer contributions (and I thought I would have to quit my job too - not gonna happen).  Maybe Acala is correct, they might incrementally push people towards "safe" investments that favor TPTB.  But raising taxes would be the easiest way to get 401 money.
> 
> More so, the 401 is tax deferred so cashing out now will increase the war chest.  Maybe in 40 years we will have come to our senses or the fake money is all gone as pcosmar suggests.
> 
> For now, I'm happy with my hands, and Uncle Sam's, off that account.


Cashing out means the withdrawal is taxed as income.  The broker will withold 20%, but most of us pay less than 20% on our income.  There's also an early withdrawal penalty of 10%.

You can make penalty free withdrawals for certain things.  Buying a house, paying for school, medical expenses.

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## Zippyjuan

> That's what I was guessing. It's good to hear someone else say it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Isn't it really the dollar not the the stock market that's the bubble now? My feeling is that stocks will go up as the dollar loses value. Just not as fast as other prices so you will lose purchasing power. But if you're holding cash or bonds or treasuries, you'll get crushed. Personally I'm invested in foreign stocks and physical gold.


The value of bonds (including Treasuries) moves inversely with interest rates so if interest rates rise (and if inflation increases, so will interest rates since expected inflation is one component of interest rates) then yes, the value of bonds will go down.

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## Acala

> That's what I was guessing. It's good to hear someone else say it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Isn't it really the dollar not the the stock market that's the bubble now? My feeling is that stocks will go up as the dollar loses value. Just not as fast as other prices so you will lose purchasing power. But if you're holding cash or bonds or treasuries, you'll get crushed. Personally I'm invested in foreign stocks and physical gold.


The Fed itself reports that virtually the entire increase of the S & P since the crash has been fueled by QE.  That strikes me as being a bubble in stick prices.

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## Acala

> Trade volume isn't that low. It is down slightly this year but not much below where it has been for the last ten years- see bar graph below chart at this link: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Edji+interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;  compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair  =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;   (image is flash so I can't copy it for you).


I was thinking more about volume in the last week or two.  I would check it out and see if I am right but I have to catch a plane.

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## Zippyjuan

Have a good trip!

Maybe August is a slow month- most people take vacations then. I don't keep track of things like volume so I am only going by the charts. 

Found a better chart (shows one year- you  can select longer terms at the link) :


http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts

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## pcosmar

Safe. *NO*

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...Customer-Funds

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## idiom

401k's would never be seized. Just like HMO's were not nationalised by Obamacare. The rules will simply be changed a little bit so that you *want* to give up your 401k. 

Most likely wither by providing a way to be made whole right after a crash by shifting everything into Treasuries, or Social security, or placing a penalty for not doing so.

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## The Free Hornet

> If the dollar is no longer used and your stocks are priced in dollars they will be worth nothing. But I don't see that happening.


Wouldn't the price be closer to infinity than zero?  Regardless, aren't shares expressed as some fractional worth of a corporation?  Only the exchange is tied to the dollar, so couldn't these be traded with a different currency at the same or a different exchange?

Maybe this is a nitpick, but how does being priced in dollars matter to a multi-national?

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## Zippyjuan

Of course if they were worth "infinity" then one share could theoretically be exchanged for every single thing on the planet- including all other "infinity" shares. 

The shares are issued on one of the global stock exchanges and are traded on that exchange only- you can't take shares you bought on the German exchange and resell them on the UK stock exchange.   So what do big international companies do?  They issue shares on multiple exchanges.  They may for example sell shares worth an initial value of $100 billion in New York and another $100 billion in Tokyo or Hong Kong.  The share price is based on the total number of shares in the country issued.  And they have different subsidiaries in different countries. The currency may not matter as much to the companies but it does matter to the exchanges- they don't want shares sold on another exchange dumped on their exchange- driving down prices (the value of shares) there. (winging this off the top of my head at the moment). Revenues are broken down by country too (which will effect the stock price by stock exchange country as well- good sales in the UK may cause their shares there to rise while poor results in the US may cause the stock to fall there)- for tax purposes.  They have to pay their corporate taxes for each country so they basically have different businesses in different countries each with their own stock shares issued- even if they share the same name and the bulk of the profits goes to the main headquarters.

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## Dr.3D

Anything that is on paper isn't safe.   The only safe money you can have must be something that isn't paper and in your own possession.

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## heavenlyboy34

> Anything that is on paper isn't safe.   The only safe money you can have must be something that isn't paper and in your own possession.


winner.

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## jonhowe

> Check out ZeroHedge.com some time for starters.


Everyone at my firm reads that daily. Needless to say, most did well during 2008.

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## The Free Hornet

> Of course if they were worth "infinity" then one share could theoretically be exchanged for every single thing on the planet- including all other "infinity" shares.


I meant if the share is priced in dollars, and dollars are worthless or nearly so (say, $1 bill = 0.0001 oz of silver 'cause you can still wipe your ass with it or something), then buying anything with dollars might require a HUGE number of them.

But regarding your prior quote,




> If the dollar is no longer used and your stocks are priced in dollars they will be worth nothing. But I don't see that happening.


Regardless of the exchange, if the share is defined as fractional ownership (say one millioneth) of a company, why does it matter if the dollar is still used?  Ought you not still own a millioneth of that company?

If you are correct, then we would want to diversify which exchanges we trade on, no???  My contention has more to do with "worth nothing" than the price of the share in dollars (which may be undefined or no longer applicable).

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## misean

> What do you think the chances are that 401Ks (or any retirement account) gets raided when the dollar starts to crash? I think it's a numbers game. A lot of voters with retirement accounts would get seriously pissed off. On the other hand an even greater number of voters will have their government handouts reduced if we don't raid retirement accounts.


I'm just curious, why would the government raid 401ks if the dollar collapses? That doesn't even make sense. 99.9999% of money in 401ks is in dollar denominated assets. What would it accomplish?

I don't think it is completely out of the question that government will dictate at some point down the road how people allocate money in their accounts. I wouldn't be stunned if government forces people to put money in some type of fixed type of investment.

All paper currencies have failed at some point in time throughout history.  That said, the long run can be a very long time.  Think about how many people have said the dollar is through throughout history. A lot economists thought we would have hyperinflation in the late 70's.  Think how many people have called for hyperinflation in Japan. They are on like QE77 right now. They run deficits almost 50% greater than Greece. They have printed at an alarming rate since 1990. And yet their currency has held up (though they have had almost no growth and the stock market is down 75% since 1989.)

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## misean

> Everyone at my firm reads that daily. Needless to say, most did well during 2008.


That's interesting because Zero Hedge didn't exist in 2008. And for some reason, even if it did, I don't think they would have told people to plow money into Treasuries and then short oil during the summer.

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## Carson

I never did think it was safe.

I remember way back when finding out that they fined you for using your own money early. I figured that was punishment for you using their money that they had already been spent and now had to be coughed again up just for you.


I see someone has already posted the grab play they are working on. Remember just because you can stop them once, on an idea like this, they have the ability to keep rising up, like those guys in the scary movies. They can keep rising up because they have the ability to fire up the fake money presses to print what ever it takes to get their way. Then they stiff us with the bill.

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## Carson

> People who held solid German stocks through the Weimar hyperinflation came out all right.  When you buy a share of equity in the company it remains a share regardless of what you purchased it with.  One share of company A is one share of Company A no matter what happens to the currency.  In fact, corporate equity is often not even purchased in dollars, being instead offered as part of a compensation package or as part of a purchase price of a business.  But I would want to hold the certificates if I were to stay in equities. 
> 
> That having been said, if I had money in equities I would be on the phone right now trying to liquidate them.  Penalty be damned.  The stock market is a bubble.  
> 
> The value of the dollar has had a reprieve due to the collapse of the Euro.  But the honeymoon will end.  I would turn stocks into dollars and start hunting for agricultural land to buy with the dollars while they retain value.



The way I see it is that when the number of dollars is doubled it then takes twice as many to buy something. You do all right in regards to inflation as your getting twice as many of something worth half as much...

until they stiff you with a capital gains tax and* cut themselves in* on your stuff. 

I mean really! They stiff you with a capital gains tax when there wasn't any real gain.

Are these the false profits we were warned about?

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## jonhowe

> That's interesting because Zero Hedge didn't exist in 2008. And for some reason, even if it did, I don't think they would have told people to plow money into Treasuries and then short oil during the summer.


I have no idea what they read in 2008, I started 14 months ago.  I do know that many of the advisors I work with had losses significantly below the S&P, AND that they do read ZeroHedge every day. They also turn up CNBC when Ron Paul is on, especially when he's grilling Bernanke. (Also, since we don't do any proprietary trading, the company itself didn't lose as much as many did.)

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## Lmata

The biggest problem w/ 401K is you can't get to your money if you need or want to - even with the penalty.  Back in '07 I saw the crash coming and wanted to take out 1/2 of our money.  Well, the only way we could get it was to leave the job, major medical, or be in foreclosure.  None of them applied so the best I could do was move around some of the money.  Very frustrating when you aren't allowed to take out your own money.  We still put a bit in but just enough to get the employer match.

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## misean

> The biggest problem w/ 401K is you can't get to your money if you need or want to - even with the penalty.  Back in '07 I saw the crash coming and wanted to take out 1/2 of our money.  Well, the only way we could get it was to leave the job, major medical, or be in foreclosure.  None of them applied so the best I could do was move around some of the money.  Very frustrating when you aren't allowed to take out your own money.  We still put a bit in but just enough to get the employer match.


If you saw the crash coming why didn't you move money into fixed or money market. What would you do differently with it outside of a 401k? Nobody was forcing you hold risk assets inside of it.

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## QuickZ06

Thanks for all the good info, all who have provide. Got a buddy that asked me this exact question. He is pulling out like he always does

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## Dr.3D

A lot of people have put at least 10% of their holdings in physical precious metals.  If there were a serious economic situation, they would still have that to hold onto.

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## LibertyEagle

> I don't think it's a done deal literally, but I think that the fact they invited the author of the plan to testify indicates that they at least consider the plan viable.  For all we know, they already have the plan drafted up and are waiting for a crisis to shove it through.  Sort of like the Iraq war plans.


Yeah, that is what scares me.

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## oyarde

> When you say "closed out", you mean you paid the 10% penalty in addition to the taxes?


 Not exactly , she is retirement age. , it is closed out , she will be retiring from her current job in Feb , working part time at a new job and expanding her home business , I have no idea what to do with mine yet, still have 3 % of my gross going into it , did switch 40 % to bonds before the last crash , so , I am actually up a bit since then, now, finally , last quarter , but I feel the next crash is coming , so I need to figure something out , it actually represents, not a large portion of our total which is mostly in property ,etc , but I want to salvage it ....

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## oyarde

[QUOTE=Zippyjuan;4581674]That could be expensive.  Say you had $10,000 in one. Ten percent penalty knocks you down to $9000 and then it counts as ordinary income for you.  If you are in a 25% tax bracket, you could lose another $2500 (not sure if the tax applies to amounts before or after the penalty is applied) or $2,025 which would drop your $1000 down to about $6500. They keep 20% as withholdings against the taxes.  You just lost $3500. Now if you wanted to put that into a different investment, it would have to go up by 46% just to break even (ignoring costs of the new investment) with what you had in the 401k (to get the $6500 back up to $10,000).  That is a big return you need. And that assumes that the 401k didn't grow at all in that time- otherwise you need even more growth to simply break even with keeping the account.                 You forgot state tax..

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## oyarde

> The biggest problem w/ 401K is you can't get to your money if you need or want to - even with the penalty.  Back in '07 I saw the crash coming and wanted to take out 1/2 of our money.  Well, the only way we could get it was to leave the job, major medical, or be in foreclosure.  None of them applied so the best I could do was move around some of the money.  Very frustrating when you aren't allowed to take out your own money.  We still put a bit in but just enough to get the employer match.


 Well , in the case of knowing a crash is coming , you can take a loan out of it for near half value and buy land and precious metals , I have done it before, and may again....

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## oyarde

> Anything that is on paper isn't safe.   The only safe money you can have must be something that isn't paper and in your own possession.


Yep

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## oyarde

> winner.


 Yep

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## Zippyjuan

> Not exactly , she is retirement age. , it is closed out , she will be retiring from her current job in Feb , working part time at a new job and expanding her home business , I have no idea what to do with mine yet, still have 3 % of my gross going into it , did switch 40 % to bonds before the last crash , so , I am actually up a bit since then, now, finally , last quarter , but I feel the next crash is coming , so I need to figure something out , it actually represents, not a large portion of our total which is mostly in property ,etc , but I want to salvage it ....


You are usually up on things and know that bonds will head south if inflation or interest rates head up.  Can't say into what but would suggest to anybody with money in bonds or Treasuries or the like to start cutting them back and changing them over to something else. Mine is mostly either going to the mortgage or into a dividend paying utility.

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## oyarde

> You are usually up on things and know that bonds will head south if inflation or interest rates head up.  Can't say into what but would suggest to anybody with money in bonds or Treasuries or the like to start cutting them back and changing them over to something else. Mine is mostly either going to the mortgage or into a dividend paying utility.


 Yeah, I just did that to cut the losses I saw coming then , now I need to do something else ( in my 401 ) I only put the minimum in they match , so I never wanted to shut that off , but I really do need to do something , Canadian mint has a quarter ounce .9999 silver polar bear with $20 face value  , might just get a wild hair and borrow 40 % and buy those

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## Madison320

> I'm just curious, why would the government raid 401ks if the dollar collapses? That doesn't even make sense. 99.9999% of money in 401ks is in dollar denominated assets. What would it accomplish?
> 
> I don't think it is completely out of the question that government will dictate at some point down the road how people allocate money in their accounts. I wouldn't be stunned if government forces people to put money in some type of fixed type of investment.
> 
> All paper currencies have failed at some point in time throughout history.  That said, the long run can be a very long time.  Think about how many people have said the dollar is through throughout history. A lot economists thought we would have hyperinflation in the late 70's.  Think how many people have called for hyperinflation in Japan. They are on like QE77 right now. They run deficits almost 50% greater than Greece. They have printed at an alarming rate since 1990. And yet their currency has held up (though they have had almost no growth and the stock market is down 75% since 1989.)


But Japan only increased its monetary base by about 5% a year. Japan has a huge trade surplus. Japanese citizens have savings. The US increased its monetary base by around 300% in just 3 years. We have a huge trade deficit. US citizens are broke. And that was while we can still borrow money. Wait until we HAVE to print. To stop inflation in the 1970's Paul Volcker set the interest rate at 20%. We can't do that now because of the debt. Not even close. 

According to this article the average lifespan of a fiat currency is 34 years:

"According to an interesting study of the 775 fiat currencies that have existed, 599 are no longer in circulation. The median life expectancy for the defunct currencies? Fifteen years. Perhaps the author was being unfair by focusing solely on the failures. Sadly no, the average life expectancy of all fiat currency is running at a truly underwhelming 34 years. Only a select few have managed anything approaching old age. The British pound sterling is one such example at over 300 years and counting. Before we get too excited by this apparent example of longevity, at inception the pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver. The pound is now worth less than 0.5% of this original value and of course there is no silver involved anywhere. In other words, the most successful currency in existence in terms of life-span has lost more than 99% of its value."

http://www.europac.net/voices/experience_teacher_fools

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## Madison320

> The biggest problem w/ 401K is you can't get to your money if you need or want to - even with the penalty.  Back in '07 I saw the crash coming and wanted to take out 1/2 of our money.  Well, the only way we could get it was to leave the job, major medical, or be in foreclosure.  None of them applied so the best I could do was move around some of the money.  Very frustrating when you aren't allowed to take out your own money.  We still put a bit in but just enough to get the employer match.


I had similar problem. Back in 2006 I knew the US was in trouble from all the debt (seems like nothing now - about 7 trillion!). All I had was a few crappy mutual funds in my 401K so I moved most of my money to the international mutual fund. I got hammered pretty good in the crash because the dollar went up. 

Anyway after the crash I did some investigating and found that my 401K has a program you can sign up for that allows you to invest in anything you want. I don't think all 401K programs offer this but it's worth checking out. It's great to be able to buy almost whatever I want. Now I own individual stocks, mostly international and a couple of ETFs (oil and gold).

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## osan

> What do you think the chances are that 401Ks (or any retirement account) gets raided when the dollar starts to crash? I think it's a numbers game. A lot of voters with retirement accounts would get seriously pissed off. On the other hand an even greater number of voters will have their government handouts reduced if we don't raid retirement accounts.


Stupid question.  _Nothing_ is safe.  Here, "nothing" means precisely that.

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## osan

> Define "safe" .


You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to pcosmar again.

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## osan

> Once [liberals]  get an idea, it's only a matter of time until they succeed in implementing it.


Every time.

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## Cowlesy

I'm happy with mine so far this year.  It's up about 7% so far.  I'm 66.10% in equities (between europacific growth, large cap value, mid cap value and small cap value), 11.47% bond/fixed income and 22.43% stable value.  This way I have a bit across all market capitalization ranges, some exposure to the europe and asia, a little bit of fixed income and some emergency cash in case the market crashes and i can buy some stuff on sale.

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## pcosmar

Which, Games in Vegas (or any casinos) are "safe" .?  Which slots are safe?

Of course some win a little,,it keeps the "rubes" playing..

The game is rigged,,and when the house folds,, it is game over. Everything on the table is gone.

Safe?

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## Dr.3D

> Which, Games in Vegas (or any casinos) are "safe" .?  Which slots are safe?
> 
> Of course some win a little,,it keeps the "rubes" playing..
> 
> The game is rigged,,and when the house folds,, it is game over. Everything on the table is gone.
> 
> Safe?


That's why I don't bet at the New York Stock casino.

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## Lmata

> I had similar problem. Back in 2006 I knew the US was in trouble from all the debt (seems like nothing now - about 7 trillion!). All I had was a few crappy mutual funds in my 401K so I moved most of my money to the international mutual fund. I got hammered pretty good in the crash because the dollar went up. 
> 
> Anyway after the crash I did some investigating and found that my 401K has a program you can sign up for that allows you to invest in anything you want. I don't think all 401K programs offer this but it's worth checking out. It's great to be able to buy almost whatever I want. Now I own individual stocks, mostly international and a couple of ETFs (oil and gold).



That's good to know Madison.  I'll have to ask about that with ours.  I did move a lot to fixed funds but there wasn't much to choose from.  
As far as taking out a loan - I didn't want the huge pay back each month.  Why add another payment to the budget when you think the economy is going to tank?  Didn't make sense to us as we like to be debt free - even free from being forced to take large payroll deductions to payback 401K loans.  I can see how a loan would work if it's a small amount but when you've got a lot in there it's not feasible to pay it all back easily.

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## ctiger2

401K', IRA's etc will ALL be seized by the US Govt at some point. Either an outright seizure OR they'll force investments in US Treasuries to keep interest rates low so the politicians can borrow more, spend more and get re elected more.

All the madness about seizing this and seizing that WILL come to pass.

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