# Liberty Movement > Defenders of Liberty > Justin Amash Forum >  Justin Amash mulls Senate run

## tsai3904

> Republican insiders tell National Review Online that Representative Justin Amash of Michigan is privately considering a Senate bid, should incumbent Democrat Carl Levin retire.
> 
> People are asking him to look at it, and he hasnt closed the door, says a Republican operative familiar with Michigan politics. If Levin steps down, I think hes going to run.
> 
> Several libertarian activists, who are close with Amash, say the 32-year-old congressman is intrigued by the idea. He recently huddled with his friends and allies to express his interest.
> 
> But no decision is imminent. Amash is waiting to see whether Levin, who has less than $250,000 in his campaign account, will formally announce his retirement plans. Levin, the chairman of the Armed Services committee, was first elected in 1978.


More:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...betsy-woodruff

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## itshappening

He'd have to give up his seat and it's not a sure bet in a statewide race with heavy Democrat votes in the big cities like Detroit?

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## Spoa

If I thought he could win, I'd say ABSOLUTELY YES! But I think he would be better off waiting a longer time and staying in the House of Reps. He's young and can wait longer. I'd just hate it if he lost and we lost such a strong voice in congress.

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## itshappening

Plus, if he could win in 2014 he'd next be up again in a presidential year. .

i don't see the point when the state is too Democratic

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## compromise

This will be very difficult to win. I hope Amash doesn't run and instead focuses on leading the Liberty Caucus in the House.

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## itshappening

He should wait for a Supreme Court appointment.

Amash as a justice for the next 50 years, that sounds good to me.

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## Cowlesy

> This will be very difficult to win. I hope Amash doesn't run and instead focuses on leading the Liberty Caucus in the House.


I agree.  I highly doubt The Penguin will retire.

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## erowe1

> He'd have to give up his seat and it's not a sure bet in a statewide race with heavy Democrat votes in the big cities like Detroit?


It's not heavy Democrat. It leans that way slightly. In the last midterm election they elected a Republican governor.

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## compromise

> He should wait for a Supreme Court appointment.
> 
> Amash as a justice for the next 50 years, that sounds good to me.


Why not appoint Judge Napolitano? Napolitano is unelectable, but is very experienced in constitutional law and has state court experience. Amash is electable, so it's best he stays in politics.

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## itshappening

> Why not appoint Judge Napolitano? Napolitano is unelectable, but is very experienced in constitutional law and has state court experience. Amash is electable, so it's best he stays in politics.


Because Amash in his 30's and can hold the seat for 50 years

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## itshappening

> It's not heavy Democrat. It leans that way slightly. In the last midterm election they elected a Republican governor.


While that's true it's no sure thing Snyder who is at the top of the ticket in 2014 will be re-elected and that could hurt Amash especially with the leftists mobilized against his right to work law, it will be a titanic battle.  Also, if Amash did somehow prevail the term is up in 2020 which is a presidential year and MI always goes Democrat.  So it's fraught with risk on multiple fronts.

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## tsai3904

> So it's fraught with risk on multiple fronts.


He could be just getting his name out there and finding out what kind of support there is.  This will also get his name included in polls.

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## mz10

> This will also get his name included in polls.


I wouldn't put money on that lol

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## supermario21

It would be a test of the liberty message in a state that would be important in a Rand presidential run. What a better way to see if we really are popular with minorities/young people than to test the waters. Although I fear 2014 will be a Democratic year in Michigan b/c of RTW. This will be labor's last hurrah. Stay with the safe House seat.

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## erowe1

> It would be a test of the liberty message in a state that would be important in a Rand presidential run. What a better way to see if we really are popular with minorities/young people than to test the waters. Although I fear 2014 will be a Democratic year in Michigan b/c of RTW. This will be labor's last hurrah. Stay with the safe House seat.


I don't know about that.

If the unions couldn't prevent RTW when they were more powerful, how are they powerful enough now to undo it?

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## sailingaway

I'd back him but I don't want him to make the move unless we can win. I don't want to lose him.

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## thoughtomator

Democrat Senators don't retire willingly.

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## FSP-Rebel

Pretty sure Gov. Snyder is going to be reelected in 2014. Our budget is under control despite him raising taxes on some and fees on others but his right to work cred will see him through. Typically and recently, non-prez years don't fare well for dem turnout. Also, when the dems put up non-well known and weak statewide candidates like they did against Snyder initially, they get their clocks cleaned. 

We've lost 120k people in our state over the last four years which could ultimately be meaningless. But, I'd suspect they were laid off auto workers, manufacturers and younger folks that undoubtedly lean left as far as voting. Obama lost 300k votes from four years ago but Stabenow got 200k more than Obama recently. 100k more people voted against prop 2 (shoving union collective bargaining down our throats) than voted for Obama, so roughly 500k dems voted against it. We had roughly 4.7 million voters in the recent prez election which was down from '08 yet in the 2010 midterms where the Tea Party showed strength, we had only 3.15 million voters. Off prez years notoriously suck for dems for the most part in relative recent times. GOP strength sucks when they put up non conservatives. All in all, despite the unions in over drive for 2014, they're going the way of the dinosaurs unless they can gin up enough animosity over RTW in 1.5 years. 

I would like to stay in his House seat but think he should go in for Senate if Levin retires because the dems don't really have any big names that could offset him. Turnout will be low and he could sneak in esp with big conservative pacs behind him. My only issue is with a potential primary where lots of our money could be wasted if there's an ugly battle between him and a rino. Outside money will be soaring in and undoubtedly the buying the Mich vote will come up. Plus, we'll be engaging in other Senate battles too. I guess an appropriate pro/con list would need to be measured before I could 100% say I'm on board with this move. I know that was quite scattered but thought I should lay out some info for perspective of how Mich has been lately.

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## Pisces

I'm guessing he would do much better than most Republicans at getting the Arab-American vote which is important in Michigan.

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## supermario21

In 2010, Wayne County turned out roughly 518K, while the prez election had 808K. Snyder only lost 4 counties, and those were all within a percent or 2, except Wayne (Detroit) which was 60-38. Would Amash be popular with the college crowd? If a Republican can suppress Detroit turnout and do well in the college towns, then they can win statewide.

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## erowe1

> I'm guessing he would do much better than most Republicans at getting the Arab-American vote which is important in Michigan.


Not really.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan#Demographics

I think there's a high concentration in Dearborn, but not enough to have a noticeable effect on state election.

I could be wrong, though. The last Republican senator from there was Spence Abraham, also with Arab roots.

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## EBounding

> I'm guessing he would do much better than most Republicans at getting the Arab-American vote which is important in Michigan.


Arabs, Chaldeans used to mostly vote Republican.  Now they don't by a large margin.

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## FSP-Rebel

> Arabs, Chaldeans used to mostly vote Republican.  Now they don't by a large margin.


Yep, Bush inc did wonders for the GOP.

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## SpreadOfLiberty

Only if Levin retires and only if the polling gives him a good chance should he even consider it. 2014 will be a down year for Democrats big time, so it is worth watching. I think the big establishment money would back him if he ran.

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## erowe1

> Only if Levin retires and only if the polling gives him a good chance should he even consider it. 2014 will be a down year for Democrats big time, so it is worth watching. I think the big establishment money would back him if he ran.


I don't know what the establishment would do. They definitely won't back him in the primary, and how enthusiastically they do in the general might depend on how bitter they are over whomever he defeats in the primary and what kind of Dem he's up against. The GOP establishment was definitely ambivalent about Mourdock all through 2012, and he was on much better terms with them than Amash is.

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## K466

I like the idea of Amash stepping up but it's also risky and as he could lose and anyway he has opportunity to be the next Ron Paul as a member of the House. Senators are more powerful and I doubt they could get away with following Ron's footsteps (as we saw with Rand) at this time.

So initial reaction is, I hope he doesn't do it.

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## SpreadOfLiberty

Help out Amash in the comments section on NRO: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...betsy-woodruff

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## Brett85

This seems like a really bad idea to me.  He'll just end up losing his house seat.

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## Keith and stuff

> Why not appoint Judge Napolitano? Napolitano is unelectable, but is very experienced in constitutional law and has state court experience. Amash is electable, so it's best he stays in politics.


He was just dreaming. Obviously, Amash is much more likely to be a US Senator than a SC Justice. Let the guy have his dream.

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## Smart3

I don't see any reason for Amash to run. We can't afford to lose him.

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## Spoa

> I don't see any reason for Amash to run. We can't afford to lose him.


Amen. Maybe if we get more liberty reps in 2014 then it would be all right for him to run in for a senate seat. But we don't have a lot of great reps like him. Also, is there anyone who lives in his district who would be good to succeed him? (I'd hate to give Amash's seat to a RINO!)

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## erowe1

> Also, is there anyone who lives in his district who would be good to succeed him? (I'd hate to give Amash's seat to a RINO!)


Yes. Eric Larson who narrowly lost a primary to replace Amash as state rep.

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## mad cow

I don't like the risk.In a deep red State ,maybe.But even then,could Ron Paul have won a Senate seat in Texas.

He is our best Representative,I would hate to lose him.

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## wormyguy

Michigan is too blue a state, and the primary would be uncertain.  Organized labor is going to dump every last cent into Michigan in order to reverse RTW, and it's going to be impossible for someone who's burned all establishment bridges to even come close spending/name-recognition-wise to his opponent, which is crucial in a blue state with a hard ceiling for GOPhers.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Sen. Amash, I just don't think it's a likely proposition.  1.5 years are of course an eternity in politics.

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## RonPaulMall

> What a better way to see if we really are popular with minorities/young people than to test the waters. .


Michigan isn't really the state to test if you are popular with minorities.  And the answer to that anyway is that we aren't.  But it is a good test of whether we can gain traction with the northern white working class vote, which is the be all and end all in terms of Rand, or any other GOP Presidential candidate's chances.  That being said, Amash's seat is not worth a "test".  We dont' have enough Liberty candidates in office to be sacrificing them on pipe dream experiments.

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## supermario21

> Michigan isn't really the state to test if you are popular with minorities.  And the answer to that anyway is that we aren't.  But it is a good test of whether we can gain traction with the northern white working class vote, which is the be all and end all in terms of Rand, or any other GOP Presidential candidate's chances.  That being said, Amash's seat is not worth a "test".  We dont' have enough Liberty candidates in office to be sacrificing them on pipe dream experiments.


That's pretty much how I feel. I hope the people steering Amash aren't hacks planted by the establishment trying to get him out of Congress.

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## Pisces

> Michigan isn't really the state to test if you are popular with minorities.  And the answer to that anyway is that we aren't.  But it is a good test of whether we can gain traction with the northern white working class vote, which is the be all and end all in terms of Rand, or any other GOP Presidential candidate's chances.  That being said, Amash's seat is not worth a "test".  We dont' have enough Liberty candidates in office to be sacrificing them on pipe dream experiments.


The northern white working class didn't vote for Obama in 2012. If Romney had gotten their vote in Ohio and Michigan, he could've won the election.

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## supermario21

> The northern white working class didn't vote for Obama in 2012. If Romney had gotten their vote in Ohio and Michigan, he could've won the election.


Correct, but Obama got enough of them in Ohio and Michigan because of the auto bailout. Obama was around 39% with that group nationwide but pulled mid 40s in Ohio.

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## wormyguy

> The northern white working class didn't vote for Obama in 2012. If Romney had gotten their vote in Ohio and Michigan, he could've won the election.


So did they both didn't and did vote for Obama in 2012?

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## Pisces

> So did they both didn't and did vote for Obama in 2012?


According to supermario enough voted for Obama to give him the win. What I was trying to say is that most of them voted for neither Obama or Romney.

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## wormyguy

> According to supermario enough voted for Obama to give him the win. What I was trying to say is that most of them voted for neither Obama or Romney.


Um, I think it's pretty obvious that the vast majority voted for one of the major party candidates.

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## Pisces

> Um, I think it's pretty obvious that the vast majority voted for one of the major party candidates.


No, they could have just stayed home and not voted at all.

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## SpreadOfLiberty

Senate Conservatives Fund posted the NRO article, so presumably they are interested. http://www.senateconservatives.com/s...lls-senate-run

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## tsai3904

> Senate Conservatives Fund posted the NRO article, so presumably they are interested. http://www.senateconservatives.com/s...lls-senate-run


Liberty For All said they would put "six to seven figures" behind a Senate run.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...res-robert-cos

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## supermario21

Agreed on earlier posts. White rural vote was definitely DOWN in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, don't know about Michigan b/c I live along OH/PA border not OH/MI border. It went big to Romney, but not nearly enough. So two factors kept Romney down, a disenchanted white working class as well as a group that supported Obama because of the bailout.

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## itshappening

The GOP has won an MI senate seat 3 times in 60 years over 20 races. 

Don't give up your House seat for those odds, you'd be insane to. 

It's not worth it.  Michigan is brutal for Republicans.  He's in a safe district and hopefully he stays there for many years rather than throw everything away on a fanciful senate bid because Preston Bates thinks its a good idea.

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## 1836

Unfortunately for Justin, he doesn't live in a state that allows much upper movement. Possibly he could run for statewide office at some point in the future, or even a Senate seat down the road...

Michigan, like all upper midwestern states, is trending Republican. Urban Detroit has lost almost 250,000 people in the last decade.

It's worth noting that Michigan may be a GOP state or a very close swing state before long.

But not yet. Not a good time for Justin to run.


It must be frustrating for him to be so limited in the House, however. Senators can single-handedly block bills and all sorts of fun things, but House reps are fairly limited in the procedure they can employ.

We just need to keep supporting him and helping him to foster growth in the liberty wing of our party, and help him lead efforts on bills in the future.

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## FSP-Rebel

If Levin retires, he should run because from what I can tell, the dems don't have a big name to fill in. Also, being a midterm that likely will go GOP because of low dem turnout. The issue over turnout will be if the unions can drum up enough backlash over RTW passed here recently. I'll have a better view of things after I see how things turn out at our state convention next weekend.

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## supermario21

> Unfortunately for Justin, he doesn't live in a state that allows much upper movement. Possibly he could run for statewide office at some point in the future, or even a Senate seat down the road...
> 
> Michigan, like all upper midwestern states, is trending Republican. Urban Detroit has lost almost 250,000 people in the last decade.
> 
> It's worth noting that Michigan may be a GOP state or a very close swing state before long.
> 
> But not yet. Not a good time for Justin to run.
> 
> 
> ...


I don't know. What caused Michigan to go so blue after the elections of 2000 and 2004? IIRC Bush lost those races by 5 and 3 points respectively. 08 was a blowout and Romney still lost the state by close to 10 points. If anything, the state has gone more blue? Unless that was just the Obama turnout machine at hand. That's the thing you have to watch with states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are pretty red but all have a really blue big city (Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia). It's so hard to gauge the overall trend of those states because a 10% turnout difference in those cities can swing elections.

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## AJ Antimony

> I don't see any reason for Amash to run. We can't afford to lose him.


Well, the reason would be that he might be able to get promoted to US Senator. Maybe if we had 218 or 219 libertarian Representatives I'd agree we couldn't afford to lose him. But we have... what?... 10? I think we can easily afford losing him in exchange for the best odds possible for a huge promotion.

This may be the last open MI Senate race for a fairly long time. 6-12 years, depending on when Stabenow decides to retire. If Amash wants to run state-wide in his Democratic leaning state, then he has to do it when the seat is open. That will provide the best odds for winning as a Republican. Furthermore, 2014 will be the mid-term elections, which generally lean opposite of the party of the sitting president. So in this case, 2014 is expected to favor Republicans.

If Amash wants to run for Senate, yes, he is young enough that he can wait for future opportunities (retirements). However, it's also possible that an open Senate race in 2014 may actually be his absolute best chance in his lifetime to win a Senate seat. Who knows.

There are certainly many factors for Amash to consider before entering the race...
- Who will be his potential primary challengers?
- If L4A, SCF, C4G, FW line up behind Justin early, will that huge money advantage scare off potential primary challengers?
- Who will be his potential Democratic opponent?
- How much money can he raise outside of the aforementioned PACs/superPACs?
- How much can the Dem raise?
- Will Amash be able to use his independence to his advantage in the general election?
- Or will he be forced to run a partisan campaign to fire up and unify the GOP?
- What will happen of his House seat? Are there any high quality state Reps to take it over? 
- Is he himself actually ready to run as a big-time, state-wide candidate? 
- Does the MIGOP consider Amash to be a strong candidate, or do they have someone else in mind?
- How will the Dems attack him?
- What is he going to tell MI he will do as their next Senator?

If enough important variables are lining up in his favor, then I say he should run. If L4A, SCF, C4G, FW are really throwing their weight behind Justin before Levin even announces his retirement, then I think that's an amazing sign.

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## Brett85

What is the law in Michigan regarding whether or not a candidate can be on the ballot for two different races?  If Amash could run for the Senate and still be on the ballot for his house race, there wouldn't really be any harm in him running for the Senate seat.  It just depends on what the law in Michigan actually is.

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## AJ Antimony

> What is the law in Michigan regarding whether or not a candidate can be on the ballot for two different races?  If Amash could run for the Senate and still be on the ballot for his house race, there wouldn't really be any harm in him running for the Senate seat.  It just depends on what the law in Michigan actually is.


When have you ever seen that as legal, in any state?

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## Brett85

> When have you ever seen that as legal, in any state?


It was legal for Paul Ryan to be on the ballot as the Vice Presidential nominee and also on the ballot for his house seat.

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## itshappening

Preston Bates - who likes to see his name in the paper - is out in Mlive the Grand Rapids local paper pressuring Justin to run 

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapi...zable_sum.html

These people have no sense.  They want Justin to give up his House seat and persue a long shot Senate bid.  

The GOP have won 3 senate races in Michigan in 60 years and they're never going to elect a proper conservative like Justin. 

And even if they do, he's a gonner in 2020 as it's a presidential year.

It's another dumb idea from Bates.  He's a clown.

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## AJ Antimony

> It was legal for Paul Ryan to be on the ballot as the Vice Presidential nominee and also on the ballot for his house seat.


Right, and that's completely different than running for both House and Senate at the same time.

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## Uriah

Can someone point me in the directions of voter registration totals for Michigan? I can't seem to find them on my own. I would like to see statistics going back at least 10 years if possible.

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## supermario21

These are some of Michigan's recent results. As to voter registration, a Rasmussen demographic estimate is all I could find which has Michigan pegged as 40D-33R-27I. If Levin retires, Amash should make a run for it. 

2012

Obama: 2,564,569 (54.21%)
Romney: 2,115,256 (44.71%)

2008

Obama: 2,872,579 (57.33%)
McCain: 2,048,639 (40.89%)

2004

Kerry: 2,479,183 (51.2%)
Bush: 2,313,746 (47.8%)

2000 presidential

Gore: 2,170,418 (51.3%)
Bush: 1,953,139 (46.1%)

2000 Senate

Stabenow: 2,061,952 (49.5%)
Abraham: 1,994,693 (47.9%)

1994 Senate (Open Seat)

Abraham: 1,577,865 (52%)
Carr: 1,298,726 (43%)

1994 Governor 

Engler (Incumbent R) 1,899,101 (61.5%)
Wolpe: 1,188,438 (38.5%)



1994 could be a very similar year to 2014 if Levin retires, with an incumbent Republican governor at the top of the ticket and an open Senate seat. 1992 was a competitive 3 way race between Clinton, Bush, and Perot (43-38) but other than that, only Bush has come close as a Republican to winning Michigan.

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## Uriah

Presidential races are much different than state races. Much less turnout usually and media attention.

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## jkob

Amash is too valuable in the House

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## erowe1

> Amash is too valuable in the House


I understand wanting to keep him there.

But really, how valuable is he there? They took away his committees. What can he really do?

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## Feeding the Abscess

If he goes into the Senate, we'd be better off if he gets more radical, which would presumably (if Rand is really playing the stealth game) allow Rand to move more in the libertarian direction.

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## compromise

> If he goes into the Senate, we'd be better off if he gets more radical, which would presumably (if Rand is really playing the stealth game) allow Rand to move more in the libertarian direction.


Amash is a Hayekian, he isn't particularly "radical" anyway. On the issues, his positions are virtually identical to those of Rand Paul.

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## supermario21

Levin is done, we shall see.

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## geraldbrooks

Run, Run, Run!!!  Levin is out

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## UtahApocalypse

Things just got real.....

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## Uriah

http://atr.rollcall.com/pre-write-mi...etire-embargo/

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## sailingaway

Jim Antle is tweeting about this saying he'd risk House but could see him being tempted.

I want him in the senate but only if he starts with solid footing.  A nonpresidential year is better, though, for funding, imho.

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## UtahApocalypse

Pros
1. Non presidential year, more funding
2. No Incumbent
3. 1 of 100 is better then 1 in 435 if he wins.

Cons
1. Gives up House seat
2. Heavy Democrat state

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## erowe1

> Pros
> 1. Non presidential year, more funding
> 2. No Incumbent
> 3. 1 of 100 is better then 1 in 435 if he wins.
> 
> Cons
> 1. Gives up House seat
> 2. Heavy Democrat state


It's not a heavy democrat state. It slightly leans that way.

I think he should go for it. Just the process of a serious statewide campaign, even if he loses, could be as impactful as he is right now in the House. He needs to move up from where he is now, and Levin's only going to retire once.

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## supermario21

This seat hasn't been open in over 50 years. Open senate seats in Michigan are a once in a generation opportunity, and the dynamics of 2014 will be more 1994 when the Republicans (Abraham) won the seat than 2012. The only thing I fear is that the RTW agenda will hurt any Republican on the ballot in Michigan.

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## Uriah

What we know right now:

Levin will retire, open seat.
Democratic bench is weak.
Michigan leans Demoratic yet just elected a Republican governor.
Justin Amash has an active/energetic base.
Justin Amash will get massive outside support from Club for Growth, Liberty for All, Freedom Works, Campaign 4 Liberty, Young Americans for Liberty
Justin Amash has been blacklisted by John Boehner and Republican leadership in the US House.

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## Uriah

> This seat hasn't been open in over 50 years. Open senate seats in Michigan are a once in a generation opportunity, and the dynamics of 2014 will be more 1994 when the Republicans (Abraham) won the seat than 2012. The only thing I fear is that the RTW agenda will hurt any Republican on the ballot in Michigan.


Michigan is losing voters. Mostly from the Detroit metro area which is heavily Democratic.

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## sailingaway

ailing @usernamenuse	07 Mar
@Ryan_JamesG @jimantle dunno. In 2014 he'd have more money, no pres election.
 		Ryan James Girdusky
@Ryan_JamesG
@usernamenuse @jimantle he would be hard sell to most of the state, parts are very christian and very union

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