# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Still a good time to buy gold and silver?

## devil21

Im apprehensive after gold and silver's moon shot a year or so ago.  Remember when silver was $21/oz and gold was $1000/oz?  I do.  Then what happened?  $10/oz silver and $800/oz gold.  Ballpark figures off the top of the head but you get my point.

Is this still a good time to buy in further?  Or a repeat of last year?  Jump in or wait for a pullback that may never come?  They keep going up but the history bugs me.

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## Dr.3D

Well, when the price starts going up, it is usually a bad time to think about buying.
One should think about buying when the price wasn't doing much.

If you believe there will be a lot of inflation down the road, then you would also believe it is still a good time to buy precious metals, just not as good a time as when they were lower in price.

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## theoakman

Everyone on this board kept talking about timing the market and they've been telling people to wait for a better entry point.  They've been saying the same thing since November.  Meanwhile, Gold is up $250 since then.  My suggestion is, buy Silver.  You obviously are looking for advice on timing the market.  My stance?  That opportunity waived bye bye long ago.  The real time to buy it was 8 years ago.  Just set some money aside each month and buy Silver.  I try to buy 200 oz. a month.  It's worked just fine.

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## tmosley

Yup.  A lot of people are going to miss the boat.  China's on board, and there isn't anyone else strong enough to keep it from sailing at this point.

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## theoakman

> Yup.  A lot of people are going to miss the boat.  China's on board, and there isn't anyone else strong enough to keep it from sailing at this point.


People already missed the boat.  Silver has seen nothing but consistent price increases for almost a year now.  Every time it went down slightly, people were on this board nearly making fun of those who were buying.  The time to go all in as a market timer was in November.  Anyone looking to protect their savings needs to stop treating the gold/silver market like a casino and just place their bets.  The risk of a currency crisis trumps the attractiveness to get in on a dollar rally bar far.  Besides, we haven't had the currency crisis yet and both metals are way up anyway.   It really makes no sense to wait it out anymore.  Bernanke has already laid down his chips and he's got no choice but to go all in.  Buy gold and silver now.

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## Dr.3D

> *People already missed the boat.*  Silver has seen nothing but consistent price increases for almost a year now.  Every time it went down slightly, people were on this board nearly making fun of those who were buying.  The time to go all in as a market timer was in November.  Anyone looking to protect their savings needs to stop treating the gold/silver market like a casino and just place their bets.  The risk of a currency crisis trumps the attractiveness to get in on a dollar rally bar far.  Besides, we haven't had the currency crisis yet and both metals are way up anyway.   It really makes no sense to wait it out anymore.  Bernanke has already laid down his chips and he's got no choice but to go all in.  Buy gold and silver now.


Yep, I like to think of it more like a train leaving the station, rather than a boat.
You still have time to get on the caboose.  You may not have saved as much of your money getting on board late, but it's still better to save what you have left by getting on board before you can't.

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## Working Poor

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## ctiger2

When Silvers at $100 and Golds at $3000 I don't think you'd care if you got in at $20 or $12 or $1000 or $800.

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## Bruno

I'd wait for the next dip, which might be as soon as next month.

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## FreedomFighter8008

Yes.  This thing is just getting revved up.

http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com...12-month-lows/

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## Original_Intent

I think a dip is likely but the biggest thing is YOU NEVER know. I have heard that a good thing to do (I never follow it) is to buya certain dollar amount each month no matter the price (if you are accumulating) That way you buy twice as much when it is at $10 than when it is at $20/oz. That way instead of an average price of $15 your average is actually $13.33/oz.

If you just have a lump sum and are considering making a one-time purchase, I have no recomendation. Timing dips is too tricky. I personally would be hesitant to buy into the current euphoria, because then I always end up buying high. But if you don;t have any right now I would try to determine a monthly dollar amount that you are going to sink into gold or silver and start doing it. Then if there is a drop you would still have money to lower your average price/oz.

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## Cowlesy

> I think a dip is likely but the biggest thing is YOU NEVER know. I have heard that a good thing to do (I never follow it) is to buya certain dollar amount each month no matter the price (if you are accumulating) That way you buy twice as much when it is at $10 than when it is at $20/oz. That way instead of an average price of $15 your average is actually $13.33/oz.
> 
> If you just have a lump sum and are considering making a one-time purchase, I have no recomendation. Timing dips is too tricky. I personally would be hesitant to buy into the current euphoria, because then I always end up buying high. But if you don;t have any right now I would try to determine a monthly dollar amount that you are going to sink into gold or silver and start doing it. Then if there is a drop you would still have money to lower your average price/oz.


Average in, sage advice.

If you ultimately believe the U.S. Dollar is doomed, and that the Federal Reserve is not going to mop up the liquidity or that they will lose control of the economy, the best way to buy is to do it incrementally over time.  The downside is freight costs are high on PM's, so you have to buy enough not to kill your cost basis.

No matter what happens, people will always say "I think it goes higher from here" as the price goes up, and people will say "I'm going to wait until I see a bottom" when it is falling.

If Jimmy Rogers can't time the market, I certainly cannot time the market.

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## brandon

Always remember the old cliche "Buy low, Sell high"

Though sometimes it can be tempting to buy something when the price seems to be shooting through the roof, it's generally not a good idea. If I were you I would wait until a few months from now when the forum is littered with threads with titles like "The PPT is manipulating the price of gold!" and "These markets are controlled, gold should never have gone this low!"

That's a good time to buy.

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## theoakman

Silver is going much higher regardless of what happens to the dollar.

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## Dr.3D

> Silver is going much higher regardless of what happens to the dollar.


For sure, above ground supplies of silver are much less than for gold.

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## tmosley

> Always remember the old cliche "Buy low, Sell high"
> 
> Though sometimes it can be tempting to buy something when the price seems to be shooting through the roof, it's generally not a good idea. If I were you I would wait until a few months from now when the forum is littered with threads with titles like "The PPT is manipulating the price of gold!" and "These markets are controlled, gold should never have gone this low!"
> 
> That's a good time to buy.


I take it you didn't see the thread where it was revealed that China is now buying gold and silver in massive quantities, and is advising their citizens to do so as well, where until recently it was ILLEGAL for them to do so?

1 Billion more customers, plus a government with a trillion+ dollars looking to get rid of them.  I wonder what's gonna happen?

If you want to cost average, fine, but start NOW.  You should have started at $12.  I myself went almost all in at $14.  I am very happy right now, as you can imagine.

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## devil21

Thanks for the thoughts.  I definitely agree that things have ramped up in the last year, fundamentally, more than they were during last year's climb.  This upward move appears based more on fundamentals of a weakening dollar, China's buying spree, and other factors than last year's which seemed more like panic buying and speculation.

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## ShowMeLiberty

> I think a dip is likely but the biggest thing is YOU NEVER know. I have heard that a good thing to do (I never follow it) is to buya certain dollar amount each month no matter the price (if you are accumulating) That way you buy twice as much when it is at $10 than when it is at $20/oz. That way instead of an average price of $15 your average is actually $13.33/oz.


Great idea - thanks!

I bought some silver last year when it was $10 - $11/oz. so I'm pretty happy about the current price. Still, I haven't bought any in a while and was thinking I ought to get some more.

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## stag15

Who cares when you buy?  If you are holding for the long term, what does $1 matter?  I think silver will at least hit $30 in a few years.  After that, who knows.  If there is a bubble in precious metals, which is highly possible, silver will go into the 100s.

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## stag15

> I take it you didn't see the thread where it was revealed that China is now buying gold and silver in massive quantities, and is advising their citizens to do so as well, where until recently it was ILLEGAL for them to do so?
> 
> 1 Billion more customers, plus a government with a trillion+ dollars looking to get rid of them.  I wonder what's gonna happen?
> 
> If you want to cost average, fine, but start NOW.  You should have started at $12.  I myself went almost all in at $14.  I am very happy right now, as you can imagine.


Tmosely, people don't get it.  Don't try to explain it to them.  The information is there, but they don't want to believe.  Let them try an time it.  I have bought at 12, 14, and 16.  The times that I bought, everyone was screaming that prices were going to 10, 12, and 13.

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## brandon

> Tmosely, people don't get it.  Don't try to explain it to them.  The information is there, but they don't want to believe.  Let them try an time it.  I have bought at 12, 14, and 16.  The times that I bought, everyone was screaming that prices were going to 10, 12, and 13.


The prices go up and down all the time. Last year when gold was at 1000/ounce no one thought it would drop to 700/ounce a month later, but it did.

Right now there is an upward trend for pretty much any time frame, and long term it will likely continue to be an up trend. But there will be plenty of buying opportunities that are much better than right now.

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## devil21

> The prices go up and down a the time. Last year when god was at 1000/ounce no one thought it would drop to 700/ounce a month later, but it did.
> 
> Right now there is an upward trend for pretty much any time frame, and long term it will likely continue to be an up trend. But there will be plenty of buying opportunities that are much better than right now.


Exactly.  Im not really concerned about "timing" the market for profit purposes as much as I'm concered about getting the most gold and silver possible for a finite amount of paper money.  I don't see why it's so hard for some people to grasp that.

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## stag15

> The prices go up and down a the time. Last year when god was at 1000/ounce no one thought it would drop to 700/ounce a month later, but it did.
> 
> Right now there is an upward trend for pretty much any time frame, and long term it will likely continue to be an up trend. But there will be plenty of buying opportunities that are much better than right now.


Can you gaurantee this?  I don't doubt there will be dips, but how do you or any of us know what will happen?  If the dollar drops over night say 5%, gold/silver could gap up.  They may retrace a little, but maybe not to these levels.

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## devil21

> Can you gaurantee this?  I don't doubt there will be dips, but how do you or any of us know what will happen?  If the dollar drops over night say 5%, gold/silver could gap up.  They may retrace a little, but maybe not to these levels.


The scary part is that I remember these exact same thread talking points last year.  I didn't buy at the high end and was rewarded with more purchasing power when it came back down and was able to start my collection.

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## specsaregood

Silver is up another +$.10 since you posted this.....
I go with the buy every month plan, I buy an even amount of gold and silver (frn-wise, not oz-wise).  I put in my monthly order today.  The little price changes don't really affect me much; but the current state looks extremely bullish to me.

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## devil21

I think the cost averaging plan is probably my best bet.  If I can find $200 a month to spend on ammo then I guess I can push at least some of that toward PMs.

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## stag15

> The scary part is that I remember these exact same thread talking points last year.  I didn't buy at the high end and was rewarded with more purchasing power when it came back down and was able to start my collection.


Yes, but the dollar climbed 25% from all the liquidation/Fed currency swaps.  It appears the dollar trend has reversed, and might not repeat in another stock market crash.

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## Brian4Liberty

It's always best to buy during the summer lows. You may have missed the boat. If it breaks through 1033, we may go to a higher trading range. Maybe between 1000 and 1100 or 1200. It will come back down below 1000 in the next 12 monthes. Buy low, sell high.

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## Dr.3D

For those who are interested, here is gold and silver for the past two years.



I collect the closing data every day from Kitco so it is their data.

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## Dr.3D

While I'm at it, here is an updated chart showing the Gold/Silver ratio vs. the U.S. Dollar Index.
I find this chart to be very interesting.

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## devil21

^^^^
The spread appears to be slowly but surely widening in the favor of PMs.  Point taken.  You can tell by the graph that PMs hold the higher ground more than the dollar does.  But does the PM ratio (I assume ozs of gold per ozs of silver) distort the trend any?

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## tmosley

> It will come back down below 1000 in the next 12 monthes. Buy low, sell high.


Hey there, Nostradamus.  I'm not sure if you were paying attention, but with China buying on dips, any downtrends are going to be short, ie less than a day.  In this environment, this market can go two ways--sideways and up.  Until the Chinese have divested their last dollar denominated asset, I don't think gold or silver will see any real downtrends.

THAT is when the bubble is going to hit, as private investors move in and wind up overshooting the goal anticipating infinite demand to continue from China.

I'll continue to buy as much as I can afford each month for at least another year, until the currency crisis hits for real in America.  Only then will I start trading for equities and real estate.  Dollars?  I don't think so.

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## Dr.3D

> ^^^^
> The spread appears to be slowly but surely widening in the favor of PMs.  Point taken.  You can tell by the graph that PMs hold the higher ground more than the dollar does. * But does the PM ratio (I assume ozs of gold per ozs of silver) distort the trend any?*


I'm not sure what you are asking here, but yes the Gold/Silver ratio is how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.    I believe the trend lines to be separating because of the severe beat down taken by the metals.  If I am correct, over time those trend lines will begin to go parallel and perhaps even merge in the future and the prices of the metals go up.

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## theoakman

> Exactly.  Im not really concerned about "timing" the market for profit purposes as much as I'm concered about getting the most gold and silver possible for a finite amount of paper money.  I don't see why it's so hard for some people to grasp that.


they still hold an affliction to the nominal number of their bank account.  Sane investors today recognize that they measure their wealth in weight of gold, not a number on a bank statement.

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## devil21

> I'm not sure what you are asking here, but yes the Gold/Silver ratio is how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.    I believe the trend lines to be separating because of the severe beat down taken by the metals.  If I am correct, over time those trend lines will begin to go parallel and perhaps even merge in the future and the prices of the metals go up.


I was asking if the changing ratios have any effect on the graph?  I see the overall uptrend but the ratios change daily.  Nevermind....doesn't matter.  I did order some PMs tonite so thanks for the prodding all.

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## Brian4Liberty

> Hey there, Nostradamus.  
> 
> I'll continue to buy as much as I can afford each month for at least another year, until the currency crisis hits for real in America.  Only then will I start trading for equities and real estate.  Dollars?  I don't think so.


Good strategy. Dollar cost averaging is usually best. My long term (Nostradamus) prediction is that real estate will bottom when metals peak. 

Long run, buy and hold. But if you feel the urge to play the ups and downs, nothing goes straight up...

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## puppetmaster

ok if I was China I would dump my gold or silver for a bit to get the suckers to panic and sell. Then I would continue to buy QUIETLY. Figure I could get AU and AG to drop by a big enough percent to save $$...if I was China.

Now personally I continue to buy on a regular basis without regards to cost. Hell I used to waste this difference daily at Starbux or whatnot.

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## tmosley

> ok if I was China I would dump my gold or silver for a bit to get the suckers to panic and sell. Then I would continue to buy QUIETLY. Figure I could get AU and AG to drop by a big enough percent to save $$...if I was China.
> 
> Now personally I continue to buy on a regular basis without regards to cost. Hell I used to waste this difference daily at Starbux or whatnot.


That would cause riots in China, as they just told their citizens to start buying.  If they immediately turned around and crashed prices, the now even poorer population would be enraged.

A better strategy is for them to encourage their people to buy PMs, then buy steadily over a long period.  That way, they can buy the people's passivity, and enrich their populace without letting the Yuan float, allowing them to get rid of all of their dollar reserves prior to severing the link to the dollar.

They are attempting to channel the yuan that they are forced to create by that link into PMs in order to keep prices stable, even as the US prints trillions.  This will work for a while, and as I mentioned, have the pleasant side effect of enriching their population.  We can take advantage of it as well.

Understand that with all this buying power coming onto the market, there won't be any major downturns for quite some time.  

The gold and silver shorters are $#@!ting their pants right now.  They have tried to push it down for the last three sessions, but they have only been able to keep it from rising further.  Look for COMEX to bust before the end of the year, probably in both gold and silver.

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## Brian4Liberty

> It's always best to buy during the summer lows. You may have missed the boat. If it breaks through 1033, we may go to a higher trading range. Maybe between 1000 and 1100 or 1200. It will come back down below 1000 in the next 12 monthes. Buy low, sell high.


Below 1000 today. Happened fast, probably because we haven't gotten through 1033 yet...




> Hey there, Nostradamus.

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## tmosley

We'll see if it stays there for more than 24 hours.  I highly doubt it.

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## Brian4Liberty

> We'll see if it stays there for more than 24 hours.  I highly doubt it.


Actually I am more pessimistic than I was for that original prediction. I was hoping for a break-out to the upside over 1033, and then back for a brief drop below 1000. Now I'm not so sure.

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## devil21

Bump.

Now with gold at $1200/oz and silver nearing $20/oz, is it still a good time to buy?  I can't imagine too big of a pullback but man, PMs just keep going vertical.

Buy now or wait?  What say you?

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## brandon

> Bump.
> 
> Now with gold at $1200/oz and silver nearing $20/oz, is it still a good time to buy?  I can't imagine too big of a pullback but man, PMs just keep going vertical.
> 
> Buy now or wait?  What say you?



I was just wondering this. I finally have enough money to increase my position in gold...but I'm scared to do it now.

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## Brian4Liberty

> Bump.
> 
> Now with gold at $1200/oz and silver nearing $20/oz, is it still a good time to buy?  I can't imagine too big of a pullback but man, PMs just keep going vertical.
> 
> Buy now or wait?  What say you?


It dropped below $1000 for weeks. That was a short term buying opportunity. Did you buy?

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## JamesButabi

Im so weary of keeping my money in the dollar right now.  Im saving for real estate currently, but I have a couple of years until I put the money into it.  I have about about 9% of my savings in commodities.   I don't care to touch the stock market.  My current fund yields about 3.5%.  What to do......what to do....

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## JXL78

It might be best if people just buy and not look back.  Whatever you can save, buy gold and silver with it instead of putting into a savings account in a bank.  Only keep emergency money in savings.

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## bander87

Do people realize the next dip might be higher than it is currently? There is no telling.

There may be a small correction, but I wouldn't wait for any major correction.

Heck, the dollar might drop another point.

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## Che

We don't have to guess or try to figure out the reaction in gold and silver.  It's very simple.  Both will react inversely to the dollar's movement.  So if we figure out the dollar, we can figure out commodities.  One glance at the long-term picture of the dollar probably tells us all we need to know.  If the trend is our friend, then undoubtedly it stands to reason that the dollar's path is downward.  That leaves but one option for commodities - higher prices. Will the us dollar index go up about 3-5% in few months and gold slide back to 1000? Sure, that's possible, but not probable. There will be intermediate periods of dollar strength, which will temporarily cool off commodities.  But don't expect any sort of bubble-bursting move to the downside in commodities until the dollar has clearly reversed its downward spiral.  I just don't see it happening anytime soon, I bought my silver/gold a week ago and today it reached $1200/oz and i'm pretty satisfied with my capital. I think what people are concerned about is the next market crash as we witnessed in 2008 when all prices were devalued except the dollar. But, as P. Schiff noted, i don't think other foreign nations will rush towards the dollar haven when the next crash happens, people will run away from it, we won't see that happen again. The Dubai crisis is just a microsphere of what can happen: even though people fled towards the dollar as a safe haven, and yet the dollar is losing its value. So i would just invest in PM today, who knows what $#@! can happen tmrw.

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## devil21

> It dropped below $1000 for weeks. That was a short term buying opportunity. Did you buy?


I did.  I think I said so when I posted on this thread originally.  Just looking for more now at the best price point 

I understand the long term completely, I just don't want to be the buy high type.  $21 for a silver round is starting to sting a little bit.

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## tmosley

Yup, I don't think the dollar can go up for very long before Eastern central banks start selling their dollars and drive down the index.  Those guys are done with the dollar at this point, and they want out (without crashing the dollar before they are out), and they will take any opportunity available to sell into strength.

If I were worried about a possible dip in silver prices, then I would just cost average until I was fully invested in metals.  I did this myself, and I'm pretty well done buying bullion.  From now, I'm buying miners and agricultural stocks, especially those with exposure to China.

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## Original_Intent

> Yup, I don't think the dollar can go up for very long before Eastern central banks start selling their dollars and drive down the index.  Those guys are done with the dollar at this point, and they want out (without crashing the dollar before they are out), and they will take any opportunity available to sell into strength.
> 
> *If I were worried about a possible dip in silver prices, then I would just cost average until I was fully invested in metals*.  I did this myself, and I'm pretty well done buying bullion.  From now, I'm buying miners and agricultural stocks, especially those with exposure to China.


Every time I see a thread about this, I think "dollar cost averaging". If I had a lump sum and was worried about getting burned I would maybe divide the money into 10 equal amounts and spend one pile a week for the next 8-10 weeks. It all depends how much you have to spend, and how quickly you want to get fully invested. (I say ten weeks because that is the longest I would want to take. You could do 4 piles and be all in within a month. Or you could do 10 piles and only spend one pile per month.

For me personally I would buy it all now, but I am not necessarily smart.

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## Brian4Liberty

I would dollar cost average a large sum over ten months. There is almost always a summer drop.

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## devil21

I just dropped another few bucks on some barbarous relics.  You people are a bad influence.  Or a good influence depending how you look at it.  More to come too!  I don't think we're going to see much of a pullback.  At least not back to sub $10 Ag and sub $1000 Au.  I could be wrong but I can't ignore that gold (and now silver finally) BOTH are reliably going up even when the DX goes up.  That's a big sign to me.

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## echebota

> I just dropped another few bucks on some barbarous relics.  You people are a bad influence.  Or a good influence depending how you look at it.  More to come too!  I don't think we're going to see much of a pullback.  At least not back to sub $10 Ag and sub $1000 Au.  I could be wrong but I can't ignore that gold (and now silver finally) BOTH are reliably going up even when the DX goes up.  That's a big sign to me.


I would say gold $1000 and silver $15 is the floor now. I don't think silver will ever go below $15 again.

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## JXL78

> I would say gold $1000 and silver $15 is the floor now. I don't think silver will ever go below $15 again.


Didn't China say they were securing the floor at $1,000 a while back when they went bullish?

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## tmosley

> Didn't China say they were securing the floor at $1,000 a while back when they went bullish?


They didn't specifically say that, rather they said that they would be buying on the dips.  This means that there is a rising floor, probably $20-30 below the most recent high on any given day.

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## devil21

> Didn't China say they were securing the floor at $1,000 a while back when they went bullish?


I think that was speculation based on some of the reports that China was urging their citizens to by PMs instead of USD, but I do remember the $1000 floor reference too.  I thinks turning out to be accurate.  Other countries are jumping on the bandwagon now too.

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## Dr.3D

> That would cause riots in China, as they just told their citizens to start buying.  If they immediately turned around and crashed prices, the now even poorer population would be enraged.
> 
> A better strategy is for them to encourage their people to buy PMs, then buy steadily over a long period.  That way, they can buy the people's passivity, and enrich their populace without letting the Yuan float, allowing them to get rid of all of their dollar reserves prior to severing the link to the dollar.
> 
> They are attempting to channel the yuan that they are forced to create by that link into PMs in order to keep prices stable, even as the US prints trillions.  This will work for a while, and as I mentioned, have the pleasant side effect of enriching their population.  We can take advantage of it as well.
> 
> Understand that with all this buying power coming onto the market, there won't be any major downturns for quite some time.  
> 
> *The gold and silver shorters are $#@!ting their pants right now.*  They have tried to push it down for the last three sessions, but they have only been able to keep it from rising further.  Look for COMEX to bust before the end of the year, probably in both gold and silver.


Looks like they are setting up even bigger short positions.
Check out this thread I just started about that.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=221285

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## tmosley

Yeah, I saw that.  Might as well double down and go out with a bang.  It's not their money, what do they care?

This is a classic example of perverse incentives.  They see that they are going to lose money, so they increase their short positions as much as they can manage, on the off chance that they might be able to drive down prices, so they might be able to get a nice big bonus.  It's a Hail Mary.  It's not going to work, either.

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## Dr.3D

Here is an updated copy of that Gold/Silver ratio versus the USDI.



Notice how it seems the gold silver ratio has been somehow kept around the 63 mark for the past month?  It almost looks controlled doesn't it?

All the while the USDI continues it's fall toward 74.

Either this indicates silver is very cheap right now, or gold is very expensive.
I'm talking by comparison between the typical historical gold/silver ratio versus the USDI.

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## ghengis86

> Here is an updated copy of that Gold/Silver ratio versus the USDI.
> 
> Notice how it seems the gold silver ratio has been somehow kept around the 63 mark for the past month?  It almost looks controlled doesn't it?
> 
> All the while the USDI continues it's fall toward 74.
> 
> Either this indicates silver is very cheap right now, or gold is very expensive.
> I'm talking by comparison between *the typical historical gold/silver ratio versus the USDI*.


which is....?

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## Dr.3D

> which is....?


Well, that chart shows how the two usually move together.  Now toward the end of the chart, they are moving apart. 

Edit: As the USDI drops, the gold/silver ratio usually drops along with it, but for some reason, the USDI is dropping but the gold/silver ratio has been holding it's own for the past month.

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## ghengis86

> Well, that chart shows how the two usually move together.  Now toward the end of the chart, they are moving apart. 
> 
> Edit: As the USDI drops, the gold/silver ratio usually drops along with it, but for some reason, the USDI is dropping but the gold/silver ratio has been holding it's own for the past month.


sorry, I meant just the historical ratio between gold/silver, not compared to the USDI.

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## Dr.3D

> sorry, I meant just the historical ratio between gold/silver, not compared to the USDI.


Well, at one time, I understand the gold/silver ratio was around 15 to 1.
Fifteen ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold.

It hasn't been down that far in a long long time and I doubt it will ever find it's way down there again.   But, silver is very scarce now and there is not as much of it above ground as there is gold.    I have heard that there is more gold in storage than there is silver.   The explanation is that because silver is used in industry and lost to the trash yards, it's supply isn't as large as that of gold where it doesn't get used as much by industry and thus just sits in various storage facilities and peoples stashes.  Gold just moves around from one place to another whereas, silver is lost in the processes of industry and scrap is not always recycled.  Quite often electrical circuit boards are just dumped in the trash with the rest of the garbage.  Same goes for other uses of silver and the places it ends up.   Often much of it ends up in the trash.

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## ghengis86

> Well, at one time, I understand the gold/silver ratio was around 15 to 1.
> Fifteen ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold.
> 
> It hasn't been down that far in a long long time and I doubt it will ever find it's way down there again.   But, silver is very scarce now and there is not as much of it above ground as there is gold.    I have heard that there is more gold in storage than there is silver.   The explanation is that because silver is used in industry and *lost to the trash yards,* it's supply isn't as large as that of gold where it doesn't get used as much by industry and thus just sits in various storage facilities and peoples stashes.  Gold just moves around from one place to another whereas, silver is lost in the processes of industry and scrap is not always recycled.  *Quite often electrical circuit boards are just dumped in the trash with the rest of the garbage*.  Same goes for other uses of silver and the places it ends up.   *Often much of it ends up in the trash*.


yeah, i've always thought at some point (say $100+/oz) the opportunity costs to mine garbage dumps would be low enough for someone to try.  already there are dedicated electronic recyclers that harvest PMs. 

FWIW, gold just blew past $1,220 (1,223.10) and silver's on a collision course with $20 (19.40 and risin)

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## devil21

I think next time I feel like bumping this thread I'll wait a week before buying.  Bought near the high this time.

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## devil21

bump

I like to bump this when PMs go vertical.  Is it still a good time to buy physical PMs or is there a hard pullback coming?

(Maybe Ill take my own advice in my above post!)

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## Uriel999

> bump
> 
> I like to bump this when PMs go vertical.  Is it still a good time to buy physical PMs or is there a hard pullback coming?
> 
> (Maybe Ill take my own advice in my above post!)


Alright currently I am financially tapped, however, even if I was in the market currently, I would wait. Give it a few days. While I feel silver and gold will continue to go up overall, there will still be dips. With silver I would wait for it drop by only about 50 cents. With gold...I dunno, I am poor and that is rich mans shiny. I can only really afford poor mans shine.

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## Seraphim

> Alright currently I am financially tapped, however, even if I was in the market currently, I would wait. Give it a few days. While I feel silver and gold will continue to go up overall, there will still be dips. With silver I would wait for it drop by only about 50 cents. *With gold...I dunno, I am poor and that is rich mans shiny. I can only really afford poor mans shin*e.


This is precisely why gold will steadily go up and silver will rocket up.

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## WaltM

> I'd wait for the next dip, which might be as soon as next month.


even if you're expecting $28 within a year?

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## devil21

bump

Should folks still buy in even at damn near $40 per oz for silver and well over $1450 for gold?  Is it still a good time to buy PMs?

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## Seraphim

I would save as much cash as possible and wait for the QE announcement. If QE ends, commodity prices will take a solid breather and retract - but only temporarily. There is a possible buy op in the middle of the summer that may only last a month or so.

If QE is announced to continue (QE3 or something of the like)...Then 50$ is virtually a given by Oct and you may not see a lot in the way of serious buy ops.

Cost avg is the best way to go for most of us here.




> bump
> 
> Should folks still buy in even at damn near $40 per oz for silver and well over $1450 for gold?  Is it still a good time to buy PMs?

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## Bern

Seraphim continues a solid streak of sage solicitudes.

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## TheDriver

Only a fool would buy at all times high. Does anyone know where to get some coins (jk)?

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## Seraphim

What all time highs?

Silver is still under 80% of it's NOMINAL all time highs. Once adjusted for inflation silver is no where near all time highs. Silver is around 40% it's real value all time highs once adjusted for inflation. Once adjusted for inflation gold is still only 63-65% of it's all time highs.

It is just as important to note the nominal price as it is to note the purchasing power of the units that are the nominal accounting measure.

Additionally, this bull market has LESS supply (primarly in silver) then the 1970's bull market with around 10 times the number of people with access to the market place. Couple this with the inflationnary measures of our central planners and you have a recipe for MUCH higher prices.




> Only a fool would buy at all times high. Does anyone know where to get some coins (jk)?

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## TheDriver

> What all time highs?
> 
> Silver is still under 80% of it's NOMINAL all time highs. Once adjusted for inflation silver is no where near all time highs. Silver is around 40% it's real value all time highs once adjusted for inflation. Once adjusted for inflation gold is still only 63-65% of it's all time highs.
> 
> It is just as important to note the nominal price as it is to note the purchasing power of the units that are the nominal accounting measure.
> 
> Additionally, this bull market has LESS supply (primarly in silver) then the 1970's bull market with around 10 times the number of people with access to the market place. Couple this with the inflationnary measures of our central planners and you have a recipe for MUCH higher prices.


One spike in the 80's caused the all time high, so forgive me for not weighing that appropriately. I bought silver in 2008 for 11 bucks an ounce. There is no way I would buy at 40 bucks now. One day the silver and gold prices will fall, that's when you buy--not at a 31 year high, imo.

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## Seraphim

Yes it's called a blowoff top. It will happen in this bull market as well and we are no where near that level yet.

The wonderful thing about the market place is that if you are pushed out at 40$ an ounce, it is of very little consequence to the 5 billion or so other people who are still more than happy to trade paper for precious metal. Additionally, as the market advances your nice savings pot will continue to appreciate in value. 

Congradulations, you were way ahead of the curve and can now largely sit back and reap the rewards.




> One spike in the 80's caused the all time high, so forgive me for not weighing that appropriately. I bought silver in 2008 for 11 bucks an ounce. There is no way I would buy at 40 bucks now. One day the silver and gold prices will fall, that's when you buy--not at a 31 year high, imo.

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## Kelly.

> I would save as much cash as possible and wait for the QE announcement. If QE ends, commodity prices will take a solid breather and retract - but only temporarily. There is a possible buy op in the middle of the summer that may only last a month or so.
> 
> If QE is announced to continue (QE3 or something of the like)...Then 50$ is virtually a given by Oct and you may not see a lot in the way of serious buy ops.
> 
> Cost avg is the best way to go for most of us here.


i agree with this.

the fundamentals for owning money (gold/silver) have not changed. 
the dollar will continue to be debased 
the us is bankrupt

i think the only question remaining is whether qe3 will be officially announced, or if it will happen "behind the scenes"

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## Acala

Funny thing about "the all time high".  It comes just before the new "all time high".  Sometimes.

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## Seraphim

Much like raising margins is being ignored and shaken off by the market, interest rate rises such as this one are being shaken off rather quickly.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11075...ecb-hike.html#

It is much later in the game then people realize. 

Revolution and unrest are spreading. Debts and currency are collapsing. 80% probability a MAJOR currency falls THIS YEAR.

I believe the Yen will be the hyperinflated confetti to burn first.

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## Kelly.

> I believe the Yen will be the hyperinflated confetti to burn first.


is this because central banks stepped in to stop the blood bath that would have ensued after the japan earthquake? (ie something about the yen carry trade?)  

i dont completely understand it, but i know central banks stepped in to prevent "something bad" , which went moslty unnoticed in the main stream media... although im not surprised.

if you care to elaborate, that would be great. if not, i understand, this isnt the right thread

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## Seraphim

There are many reason's that are all converging onto each other.

1) GDP to debt measured as a percent is VERY VERY high

2) demographics. Unlike other Western countries, the Japanese GOVT deficits have been financed by the citizens. They are almost all holding A LOT of GOVT bonds with the hope of using them to fund retirment. Japan, like other Western countries has a boomer generation- and their retirement is here and upon us. They DO NOT have the labour force to replace them, with a generation that is now entering it's years of dependence and low productivity. What happens when GOVT entitlements/health care shoot up and the financiers of past not only stop financing the GOVT programs BUT START TO REQUIRE THEM?

3) Productive capacity lowered from tsunami's, appreciating curreny AND money printing all at the same time. The amount the YEN has appreciated since the tsunami is rather astounding. Even more so when factoring in the fact that the BOJ has effectively opened the floodgates of monetary expansion to lift the lowering tides of the stock market. The deflationary forces are trying very hard to come to light, but the knee jerk reaction of monetary expansion is the inflationary counter point...perhaps hyperinflationary?

With it's huge debts, Japan has no other option but to outright monetize, it is doing so. 

The sad part is thatthe fundemental reasons for hyperinflation and currency collapse are EVERYWHERE in the world- I think Japan is just set up nicely to be first in line.




> is this because central banks stepped in to stop the blood bath that would have ensued after the japan earthquake? (ie something about the yen carry trade?)  
> 
> i dont completely understand it, but i know central banks stepped in to prevent "something bad" , which went moslty unnoticed in the main stream media... although im not surprised.
> 
> if you care to elaborate, that would be great. if not, i understand, this isnt the right thread

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## Dr.3D

Something just occurred to me.  If gold and silver are just commodities, then why are the big banks not keeping corn in their vaults?

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## Bern

The media has a monopoly on the corn.

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## Michael P

> The media has a monopoly on the corn.


Yeah they are busy eating it the long way.

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## MozoVote

There could be more upside, but I say that, as someone whose investment caution has kept me out of speculative bubbles. I can recognize this is a bull run that is reaching a mature phase ... radio commercials to hawk precious metals, "buying gold" signs hastily hung and painted on storefronts, mainstream news articles appearing in Time or Newsweek, etc.

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## AdamT

Both are still undervalued to a large degree.

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## Travlyr

> Something just occurred to me.  If gold and silver are just commodities, then why are the big banks not keeping corn in their vaults?


Durability - corn gets moldy if not maintained at the right moisture and fire can burn it away.

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## erowe1

> Something just occurred to me.  If gold and silver are just commodities, then why are the big banks not keeping corn in their vaults?


For the same reason gold and silver are more popular metals to store than copper, nickel, aluminum, iron, etc. The amount of space required to store every $1,000 worth of stuff would add too much to the cost.

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## Arklatex

If you don't own any silver then yes, now is the time to get some.

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