# Start Here > Ron Paul Forum >  PPP Iowa Poll to be released between 11 and 12 tonight

## joshnorris14

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/statu...22428262244353

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## truthdivides

bump

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## Austin

Awesome, thanks for the update. Looking forward to this poll...

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## asurfaholic

Why so late

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## SchleckBros

> Why so late


They're polling until 10 PM tonight.

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## jer4liberty

> Why so late


Because they are polling into the night, and PPP releases their poll on the same day it ends. Most pollsters would wait until the next day, if not a few days later to release the results. Nothing late about their release. They release their results quicker than everyone else.

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## eric4186

everyone should be nervous as $#@! about this...it basically is going to show how effective the media attacks are

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## Bruno

> everyone should be nervous as $#@! about this...it basically is going to show how effective the media attacks are


I am chill as hell

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## asurfaholic

Ive been anticipating this all day. Didnt realize they werent done... they have been dropping hints for how long now??

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## Canderson

Prediction:

Paul:22
Romney:20

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## tbone717

My optimistic prediction Paul leads by 4.  I honestly have a lot of faith in the intelligence of the typical GOP voter.  The newsletter attacks have not hurt, but helped the campaign.  Paul is shown to be the only true anti-establishment candidate being that he was systematically attacked by left & right with the most overplayed attack that there is in modern politics.   They see through the lies and spin.

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## KramerDSP

> I am chill as hell


Seconded.

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## jer4liberty

My Prediction:
Romney 26
Paul 25
Gingrich 12
Santorum 7
Perry 7
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

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## eric4186

I predict a tie between Paul and Romney

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## White Bear Lake

> Ive been anticipating this all day. Didnt realize they werent done... they have been dropping hints for how long now??


They drop hints as they are polling.

I'm nervous.  This poll is a BFD.

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## UtahApocalypse

> everyone should be nervous as $#@! about this...it basically is going to show how effective the media attacks are


I think we will drop one or two, but remain first place.

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## Omnica

I think we areinfirst place by a good margin in Iowa,

But the establishment is setting us up for stealing the election for the status quo. Hope i am wrong.

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## thehungarian

Paul should still be in 1st place, but Romney still within the margin of error.

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## KramerDSP

> They drop hints as they are polling.
> 
> I'm nervous.  This poll is a BFD.


Trademarked by Joe Biden.

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## Brick-in-the-Wall

> I am chill as hell


Hell isn't all that chil...oh never mind.

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## eok321

Prediction..

Paul 23
Romney 23
Gingrich 15
Santorum 13
Perry 11
Bachmann 8

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## limequat

This could be our last indicator prior to the caucus.  Iowa is make or break.  

I'm with eric, Nervous as FCUK.  

I predict Romney up by 1.

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## low preference guy

> Prediction..
> 
> Paul 23
> Romney 23
> Gingrich 15
> Santorum 13
> Perry 11
> Bachmann 8


I would like that result.

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## TheDrakeMan

From what I've seen, when PPP says two candidates are _close_, they really mean it. Paul and Romney are going to be separated by no more than 2 points. And that'll fit right into the margin of error. So obviously they'll be tied for first.

I'm thinking this:
Paul 24
Romney 22
Gingrich 13

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## joshnorris14

You guys do know they still haven't finished the polling. That tweet came more than 24 hours ago, things could've changed.

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## asurfaholic

Paul 26 romney 23, perry 14, grinch 13

I know i may be a bit optimistic

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## No Free Beer

Prediction:

Paul 22
Romney 21
Gingrich 14
Perry 12

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## TheDrakeMan

> You guys do know they still haven't finished the polling. That tweet came more than 24 hours ago, things could've changed.


Of course but nothing wrong with speculating with what we have.

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## No Free Beer

> This could be our last indicator prior to the caucus.  Iowa is make or break.  
> 
> I'm with eric, Nervous as FCUK.  
> 
> I predict Romney up by 1.


Even if that is the case, Ron Paul has the organization. I honestly don't see Romney beating Paul if it is close going into the caucus. Don't forget, the Des Moines Register always does a poll that indicates what will happen on voting day. I think Dr. Paul is in GREAT shape. 

Keep the phones a ringing!

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## No Free Beer

> Prediction..
> 
> Paul 23
> Romney 23
> Gingrich 15
> Santorum 13
> Perry 11
> Bachmann 8


I would flip Perry and Santorum...

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## kah13176

Prediction: Romney ahead by 1 point.

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## jkob

as long as we're within 2%, I feel pretty good

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## braane

No change from last time. Ron by 3

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## Endthefednow

Prediction: Ron Paul ahead by 2.5 point.

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## Cshelton21

> No change from last time. Ron by 3


Yeah 2 or 3, Gingrich is going to have taken a big hit. and its going to have impacted Mittens and Paul evenly and maybe given a larger boost to Santorum. 
I'm sure tomorrows headlines will be "Gingrich Slips, Charging Santorum from 6th to almost 5th!"

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## Kuthreck

Paul 24 %
Romney 22 %
Gingrich 16 %

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## Adrock

[COMMENT][/COMMENT]


> No change from last time. Ron by 3


Agreed. Ron and Mitt pick up one point each. Newt continues free fall. Santorum picks up the rest of the votes peeling off Gingrich.

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## Student Of Paulism

Thats what sucks about Newt dropping down, because his support is never going to go to Ron, like some of Cains did. I think its fair to say any Gingrich supporter's second choice, would be Romney, since they similar on many issues (especially the big government and flip flopping crap). So Gingrich sliding back helps Mitt way more than it helps Ron, so that being said, i see Mitt tying or going ahead here. I dont think it would have been that close though, if not for the Newsletter garbage. That is what is throwing a monkeywrench into things.

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## RedLightning

I think Romney is going to be ahead, but within the margin of error.

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## speciallyblend

hmm waiting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BejdCyIIVyw<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BejdCyIIVyw">

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## MrTudo

I would really like to see a big win, Paul by 4, then gingrich that weasel just hitting 13

Bachman and Huntsman drop out.

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## Adrock

> I would really like to see a big win, Paul by 4, then gingrich that weasel just hitting 13
> 
> Bachman and Huntsman drop out.


Huntsman in to keep votes from Romney. Santorum and Bachmann out.

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## sailingaway

I want Huntsman out because he takes votes from Ron, but Huntsman has put NOTHING into Iowa.  He won't drop out before New Hampshire, but people voting for him are kidding themselves if they think he can remotely go all the way. He ONLY has organization in New Hampshire.

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## sailingaway

> Yeah 2 or 3, Gingrich is going to have taken a big hit. and its going to have impacted Mittens and Paul evenly and maybe given a larger boost to Santorum. 
> I'm sure tomorrows headlines will be "Gingrich Slips, Charging Santorum from 6th to almost 5th!"


I think Romney got more of the Gingrich second choice than Ron did, but it depends on which ones defect, of course.

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## kill the banks

fox just mentioned about someone dropping out GOP ?

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## Epic

> fox just mentioned about someone dropping out GOP ?


Johnson.

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## Student Of Paulism

> I want Huntsman out because he takes votes from Ron, but Huntsman has put NOTHING into Iowa.  He won't drop out before New Hampshire, but people voting for him are kidding themselves if they think he can remotely go all the way. He ONLY has organization in New Hampshire.


Lol i know, what is the point already with Huntsman? He is just making himself look really pathetic. He has no money, an extremely weak base of support, no real economic plan (i remember him saying he would 'get back to us on that' in a debate lol). Total waste of time and money, i think anyone on this forum would have a better chance at being president than he does.

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## eric4186

> I want Huntsman out because he takes votes from Ron, but Huntsman has put NOTHING into Iowa.  He won't drop out before New Hampshire, but people voting for him are kidding themselves if they think he can remotely go all the way. He ONLY has organization in New Hampshire.


Huntsman could make a minisurge in NH, take a cut out of the Romney vote, and cause Paul and Romney to become neck and neck there.

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## Duckman

> Lol i know, what is the point already with Huntsman?


He thought there was a space for a moderate in the race, and he was wrong.

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## Darthbrooklyn

Paul and Romney only candidates above 13% in our Iowa poll...still no one else catching fire there https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

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## Adrock

> I want Huntsman out because he takes votes from Ron, but Huntsman has put NOTHING into Iowa.  He won't drop out before New Hampshire, but people voting for him are kidding themselves if they think he can remotely go all the way. He ONLY has organization in New Hampshire.


I didn't think there would be too much crossover between the two. Huntsman just felt like a milk toast version of Romney, if that is possible. I guess Ron has potential support from a wide range of places.

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## Epic

So that means that someone is at 13%.  Likely Gingrich.

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## sailingaway

> Huntsman could make a minisurge in NH, take a cut out of the Romney vote, and cause Paul and Romney to become neck and neck there.


Huntsman is being puffed by media to get PAUL type voters.

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## Jtorsella

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling 
Gingrich's favorability with Iowa Republicans now 37/54. Over our 4 polls favorability has gone from +31 to +12 to -1 to -17
54 seconds ago

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## Epic

Newt now at 37/54 favorability.  Stick a fork in him.

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## Adrock

> Paul and Romney only candidates above 13% in our Iowa poll...still no one else catching fire there https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls


Bad news for the Grinch.

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## sailingaway

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling 
Santorum favorability of +27 (56/29) makes him the most popular of the candidates in Iowa...but still only at 10%.

He just hasn't been attacked yet.

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## Jtorsella

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling 
Santorum favorability of +27 (56/29) makes him the most popular of the candidates in Iowa...but still only at 10%.
43 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Great he is stagnating.

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## GunnyFreedom

data slowly dribbling out

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## Epic

Santorum 10% confirms the other poll where he was at 10%.

That's probably decent for us.  Takes away from Romney likely.

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## Liberty Shark

> I want Huntsman out because he takes votes from Ron, but Huntsman has put NOTHING into Iowa.  He won't drop out before New Hampshire, but people voting for him are kidding themselves if they think he can remotely go all the way. He ONLY has organization in New Hampshire.


Yes. You are right. Huntsman is gonna be a pest in New Hampshire. It wouldn't surprise me if he was sent to NH by the establishment to cut into potential Paul support.

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## Brett85

Well, they mentioned Ron's name first again this time.  Maybe that's a good thing?

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## Jtorsella

> Well, they mentioned Ron's name first again this time.  Maybe that's a good thing?


Yes it is. They probably got more support today.

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## Epic

Prediction:

Paul 23
Romney 22
Newt 13
Santorum 10
Bachmann 10
Perry 9
Huntsman 3

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## sailingaway

> I didn't think there would be too much crossover between the two. Huntsman just felt like a milk toast version of Romney, if that is possible. I guess Ron has potential support from a wide range of places.


I've been watching second choices in polls, and the media pitching how Huntsman and Ron Paul appeal to independents for less hawkish views....(they don't mention Huntsman's desire to invade Iran.)  It is what people there are being told, and it SPINS Huntsman as an alternative to Ron.  It isn't true, of course.

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## Adrock

> Yes. You are right. Huntsman is gonna be a pest in New Hampshire. It wouldn't surprise me if he was sent to NH by the establishment to cut into potential Paul support.


That may make an Iowa win all that more important. Shore up support and take away what we can from Huntsman with the surge.

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## SchleckBros

If Santorum is at 10% then either Gingrich or Perry is at 13%

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## kill the banks

we just need to do our thing and we will do fine ... hit those phones in NH and stand tall ... get to that 6$ million Ron asked for ...  I smell something good still

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## MRoCkEd

> Prediction:
> 
> Paul 23
> Romney 22
> Newt 13
> Santorum 10
> Bachmann 10
> Perry 9
> Huntsman 3


My prediction:

Romney 24
Paul 21
Gingrich 13
Perry/Bachmann/Santorum 10
Huntsman 3

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## 69360

Heads at CNN and Faux are going to explode if Ron is still ahead. Brace yourself for the "Ron rapes kittens" stories. 

I kinda think it might be Mittens though.

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## Brett85

> If Santorum is at 10% then either Gingrich or Perry is at 13%


I bet Perry is at 13%.  I bet Newt is even lower than that.  It wouldn't surprise me if Newt ends up getting 6th in Iowa.  All of the other campaigns have a better organization than Newt.

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## Fermli

Poll looks to be virtually the same as their last poll.

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## Student Of Paulism

> Poll looks to be virtually the same as their last poll.


Lol i was just gonna say that, not much difference it looks like.

Ron just better scour IA as much as possible right now. Tomorrow should be a good day with the Vet rally and all, give him some nice exposure from a base who gives him tons of support.

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## Brett85

My prediction:

Paul: 25
Romney: 23
Perry: 13
Newt: 11
Santorum: 10
Bachmann: 8
Huntsman: 3
Other-Undecided: 7

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## zerosdontcount

I expect a small drop for Paul prob 20% Mitt at 22%

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## Adrock

> I expect a small drop for Paul prob 20% Mitt at 22%


Doug Weed just did an interview and said their internal polling shows they are increasing.

Wead?

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## r3volution

My prediction:

Paul: 95
Romney: 1
Perry: 2
Newt: -10
Santorum: 1/2
Bachmann: 0
Huntsman: 5
Other-Undecided: what ever fox wants .

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## tremendoustie

> Doug Weed just did an interview and said their internal polling shows they are increasing.
> 
> Wead?


Sweet!

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## MrTudo

> Huntsman in to keep votes from Romney. Santorum and Bachmann out.


OK!

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## Jtorsella

> Doug Weed just did an interview and said their internal polling shows they are increasing.
> 
> Wead?


Weed?

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## jax

I'm guessing a 1% increase for both paul and romney. Drop in grinch and a 3% raise for frothy

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## Agorism

> Doug Weed just did an interview and said their internal polling shows they are increasing.
> 
> Wead?


link?

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## Jtorsella

> I'm guessing a 1% increase for both paul and romney. Drop in grinch and a 3% raise for frothy


We already know no frothy rise, stays at 10%

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## braane

> Brace yourself for the "Ron rapes kittens" stories.

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## SchleckBros

> link?


He said it on the Larry Kudlow show tonight

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## Adrock

> link?


My copy / paste function is jacked on this iPad. It is on page five of the "CNBC" thread I just bumped up.

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## RileyE104

> He said it on the Larry Kudlow show tonight

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## The Binghamton Patriot

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx4nyII9HiA

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## jkob

should be released any time now right?

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## Uriah

> We already know no frothy rise, stays at 10%


If Santorum supporters give good speeches at the caucus we could see his numbers rise. He has 3 things going for him: favorability, being a social conservative, and working the ground. He could surprise in Iowa and end up with 3rd.

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## Adrock

I wonder if they keep track of how many times people are just sitting on their Twitter Link, refreshing the page.

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## Bruno

Tick...tick...tick...

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## Kuthreck

When?

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## Student Of Paulism

> When?


Within the next hour.

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## Uriah

Guess for who is at 13%?

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## Canderson

> Guess for who is at 13%?


Perry

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## Adrock

Parry. The Grinch has been flailing around too much to not be falling hard.

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## The Binghamton Patriot

santorum @13%

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## Kuthreck

Grinch

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## sailingaway

> santorum @13%


they already tweeted he is at 10% still

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## r3volution

lol .............

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## Adrock

Plus Perry has been spending all his coin in Iowa.

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## r3volution

40 min or less , or you get a bailout /\

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## Adrock

Funny how Gingrich went from an above the fray plan, to one of the most negative outbursts. He is likely seeing his campaign implode again before his eyes. The RP crew must be seeing good polling because they are sticking with their strategy.

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## 69360

> Funny how Gingrich went from an above the fray plan, to one of the most negative outbursts. He is likely seeing his campaign implode again before his eyes. The RP crew must be seeing good polling because they are sticking with their strategy.


Grinch has always been a loose cannon. He just flip flopped on his don't go negative strategy.

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## Adrock

Damn, I haven't been this antsy since waiting for polling to come out during the Aqua Budda phase of Rand's campaign.

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## braane

> Grinch has always been a loose cannon. He just flip flopped on his don't go negative strategy.


In the same interview. Which has to be a new record.

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## Uriah

> In the same interview. Which has to be a new record.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WELkanHrSqw

Don't forget about our good friend Herman "9-9-9" Cain.

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## r3volution

> In the same interview. Which has to be a new record.


i wish it was , i have seen politicians do it in the same sentence .

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## nyrgoal99

Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:

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## ericsnow

Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:

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## neverseen

Paul +4!!! He's CRUSHING IT!

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## Uriah

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/p…
42 seconds ago

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## jsingh1022

Amazing!

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## Epic

PAUL UP 4

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## pauliticalfan

Very nice.

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## bighairycaveman

AMAZING!!!!

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## pulp8721

BOOM BABY: Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2!!!!

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## braane

> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WELkanHrSqw
> 
> Don't forget about our good friend Herman "9-9-9" Cain.


Haha 10-4. I had completely forgot about that. Good times.

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## SchleckBros

TAKE THAT FAUX NEWS! BAM!

Blowback.

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## Adrock

4points bitches!

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## Zydeco

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!

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## Xelaetaks

Yay!

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## Epic

PAUL EXTENDS LEAD AFTER NEWSLETTER SMEAR BACKFIRES!

IOWA VOTERS TOO SMART FOR MSM SMEAR CAMPAIGN

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## kusok

> Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:


Is that a prediction or breaking news?

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## joshnorris14

Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2: 

$#@! YEA

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## brushfire

FKYEA!!

More establishment peepee on the floor!

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## Dr.3D

> Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:


Is this the result or just a guess?   If it's the result, what is the margin of error?

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## Kuthreck

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.

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## r3volution

will you run for the 10pm slot wolf ??

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## Epic

Everyone dig into crosstabs...

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## PauliticsPolitics

....yes

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## sailingaway

> Iowa: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11, Perry/Santorum 10, Huntsman 4, Roemer 2:


^^this!

but I've been told that the crossover voters are the hardest to predict if they will actually turn out.

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## CTRattlesnake

Bachmann about to overtake Grinch

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## Epic

Romney leads 34-12 with seniors, and we are still winning!

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## PastaRocket848

Whaaaaaaaaat? Thats insane. In a good way of course.

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## torchbearer

> Tick...tick...tick...


that's the sound of your life running out.

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## Christopher David

Prepare for the onslaught.

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## braane

I think this calls for a revision to Amazing, amazing!... Where is Wolf when we need him?

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## RDM

> i wish it was , i have seen politicians do it in the same sentence .


I've seen them do it without uttering one word with a nod of their head or wave of the hand.

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## Epic

Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at *28-21.*

And Iowa voters *think* Paul is going to win.

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## pauliticalfan

> *But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News.*


Well would you look at that!

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## kill the banks

beautiful

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## Fermli

RONSTOPPABLE
RONSLAUGHT
RONGASM

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## Epic

> Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%.


Woohoo, Romney gets few 2nd choices, and his favs suck!

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## CTRattlesnake

Sooo.....

guess the ceiling is at 25% now

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## tremendoustie



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## StateofTrance

Please reddit: h xxp://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/nt6fi/latest_ppp_poll_paul_maintains_his_lead_paul_24/

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## Bruno

> that's the sound of your life running out.


Hey, I had heart surgery last month to fix that!

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## nyrgoal99

29% of people think he will win.  Very important, some people will vote for the person they think will win

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## RonRules

Is the margin of error the usual +/-3%?

If so, I don't want to hear the MSM saying "Statistically Tied", bla bla bla.

Ron is now the CLEAR LEADER.

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## pauliticalfan

We're winning Evangelicals too.

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## CTRattlesnake

Parallels between Ron and Obama in 2008

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## braane

Favorable gap was 53-38 last week I think? It's 53-40 now. Not much of a change and clearly within MOE. Hopefully that is a sign that the newsletters haven't hurt us!

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## Johnnybags

Cannot be true, FOX news said we had a 10% ceiling, then 20%. Must be those damn democraps.

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## r3volution

it took 20 + fing yrs but people are getting it when it counts . +rep to iowa .

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## Epic

> And given all the strange twists and turns to this point don't expect to see a surprise in the final week...and based on the innards of this poll the person best positioned to provide that surprise in the closing stretch is Santorum.


Does that make sense to anyone?  It's from PPP's official release.  That sentence makes zero sense.  If this campaign has had a lot of surprises already, wouldn't you expect more?  But PPP says not to expect a surprise.  What gives?

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## HarryBrowneLives

and we're just gettin warmed up. Wait till the $10M worth of ads start hitting IA and NH this week! Paul's camp goes for the knockout!

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## pauliticalfan

Romney's favorability down 12 points in just the past week--now underwater.

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## braane

> Q21 Which of the Republican candidates do you 
> think has the best chance of defeating Barack 
> Obama?
> Michele Bachmann  8% 
> .........................................
> Newt Gingrich 13% 
> .................................................
> Jon Huntsman  4% 
> .................................................
> ...


Looks like Ron is now considered the second best candidate against Obama. Times a changin'

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## kill the banks

Flash: media drops out of GOP race ... we just lost again said one ... damn I quit was heard ... others stood in FEAR ... Mutters of Ron Paul , fudge it said a top fox neocon

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## HarryBrowneLives

RUN LIKE WE'RE 10 POINTS BEHIND!

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## evadmurd

A nice bit of good news before bed.

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## smtwngrl

After a week of attacks, Paul takes a point from Gingrich (one of those participating in the attacks).   *satisfied sigh*

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## Epic

Only 8% of people who PPP surveyed actually voted for Ron Paul in 2008.

That means we might have even more upside.

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## green73

Drrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrudge it!

Site and email
drudge@drudgereport.com

http://www.drudgereport.com/

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## Brett85

> Does that make sense to anyone?  It's from PPP's official release.  That sentence makes zero sense.  If this campaign has had a lot of surprises already, wouldn't you expect more?  But PPP says not to expect a surprise.  What gives?


They probably meant to say "expect a surprise in the final week."

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## J_White

Drudge this !! tweet this ! FB this !! 
fired up !!

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## joshnorris14

Can a mod edit the title?

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## nyrgoal99

> Only 8% of people who PPP surveyed actually voted for Ron Paul in 2008.
> 
> That means we might have even more upside.


Paul only got 9.9%. Pretty close

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## Carehn



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## r3volution

> RUN LIKE WE'RE 10 POINTS BEHIND!


 obvious quote .

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## GunnyFreedom

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...lead.html#more

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

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## joshnorris14

We'll have a fresh New Hampshire poll Thursday and one final Iowa poll late Sunday night

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## RonPaulRules



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## HarryBrowneLives

> Only 8% of people who PPP surveyed actually voted for Ron Paul in 2008.
> 
> That means we might have even more upside.


That's one hell of a stat.

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## nyrgoal99

> That's one hell of a stat.


9.9%/8% in this poll is 1.23

So RP at 24% would mean he would really be at 29.7% going off 2008 numbers

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## kill the banks

drudged

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## J_White

i dont see Paul's favorability numbers ?

Oh, found it in crosstabs 
Fav/unfav is 53/40

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## nyrgoal99

On this day in 2007, Real Clear Politics Average vs Caucus Result

Ron Paul as at 5.5% and got 9.9%

2nd place Romney was at 26% and got 25.2%

1st place-Huckabee was 29% and got 34.3%


Leader will get a boost based on people wanting to vote for the winner

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## White Bear Lake

RP better have a strategy for turning out young voters.  This is all going to come down to GOTV efforts.  Campaigning 101.

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## RonRules

> RP better have a strategy for turning out young voters.  This is all going to come down to GOTV efforts.  Campaigning 101.


When will the campaign make ads targeting senior citizens. It was the same in 2008.

We could probably get NH if the elderly were properly educated.

It's fascinating to compare Ron Vs Mitt for young people and for the elderly.  It's pretty much an exact swap.

Romney won't convince young people, but Ron CAN convince the elderly.

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## GunnyFreedom

BOOM shaka laka laka _BOOM!_

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## sailingaway

> Parallels between Ron and Obama in 2008


the question is will they show up..... they did, for Obama... but no one AT THAT TIME was conducting a smear campaign to beat all smear campaigns on him.

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## ronaldo23

so for the record ... does anyone know from 08 how huckabee polled in NH and further states. Was the reason he only won Iowa and lost everywhere else the result of only having organization in that one state? If we win Iowa, and place a close 2nd in NH (assuming Romney's support holds up there since he's essentially tried to buy the state), which states are the most realistic path to the nomination (i.e. what states is ron most competitive in pre-super tuesday)?

I feel like it's going to be tough to win states that only allow Repub voters in the primary, if Ron's Iowa coalition is reflective of the national scene.

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## RonRocks

Wow, really shows how the internet has changed things.  His level of support is proportionally biased towards people that get their news from the internet vs. the older folks who get most of their news from the talking heads.  Just show how ahead of his time he really is.

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## Shane Harris

f***ing bring it MSM.

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## Shane Harris



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## Uriah

> so for the record ... does anyone know from 08 how huckabee polled in NH and further states. Was the reason he only won Iowa and lost everywhere else the result of only having organization in that one state? If we win Iowa, and place a close 2nd in NH (assuming Romney's support holds up there since he's essentially tried to buy the state), which states are the most realistic path to the nomination (i.e. what states is ron most competitive in pre-super tuesday)?
> 
> I feel like it's going to be tough to win states that only allow Repub voters in the primary, if Ron's Iowa coalition is reflective of the national scene.


The evangelicals in Iowa got all hot and flustered about Huck. There are not many evangelicals in NH. Huckabee didn't have money. Therefore, not much of an organization to capitalize on a victory in Iowa.

Look below at the upcoming primary schedule before super tuesday, March 6th. Paul polls well in the caucus states and has a campaign office in all the caucus states listed except Wyoming(unless I am mistaken).

January 3, 2012  	Iowa (caucus)
January 10, 2012	New Hampshire (primary)
January 21, 2012	South Carolina (primary)
January 31, 2012	Florida (primary)
February 4, 2012	Nevada (caucus)
February 411, 2012	Maine (caucus)
February 7, 2012	Colorado (caucus)
                                Minnesota (caucus)
                                Missouri (primary)  *See note below on Missouri
February 28, 2012	Arizona (primary)
                                Michigan (primary)
March 3, 2012	        Washington (caucus)
March 3-10      Wyoming (caucus)



*Missouri: Missouri will hold a primary on February 7th, 2012, which will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention  See report from CNN

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## sailingaway

> RP better have a strategy for turning out young voters.  This is all going to come down to GOTV efforts.  Campaigning 101.


this

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## Greg Buchanan

> When will the campaign make ads targeting senior citizens. It was the same in 2008.
> 
> We could probably get NH if the elderly were properly educated.


Seniors like hard stances on immigration, while Ron has been skipped in most debates on the immigration issue, leaving people to believe he's soft on that one.

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## sailingaway

> Seniors like hard stances on immigration, while Ron has been skipped in most debates on the immigration issue, leaving people to belief he's soft on that one.


I think the seniors have read over and over that he thinks Social security is unconstitutional and HAVEN'T heard him say 'but once you've paid in I see it as a kind of contract right' and don't know he is the ONLY candidate making provision to pay for it in his budget.

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## Epic

http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/com...egy_backfires/

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## RonRules

> RP better have a strategy for turning out young voters.  This is all going to come down to GOTV efforts.  Campaigning 101.


I'm checking the weather report:  On Jan 3, it's going to be the coldest of surrounding days, but sunny.
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...es+IA+USIA0231

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## mport1

> I'm checking the weather report:  On Jan 3, it's going to be the coldest of surrounding days, but sunny.
> http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...es+IA+USIA0231


Ugh, come on blizzard.

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