# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Silver - Hold or Sell?

## Anti Federalist

OK, let me see what my fellow forum-ites think.

I have a fair amount silver, the vast bulk of it in 1 ounce Nevada Mint, "State of Nevada" rounds.

About half those rounds were acquired at a liquidation sale at around $10 per ounce.

The other half was from the same liquidation but purchased later at around $16 per ounce.

The rest is in bars, novelty bars, and five NORFED 2007 Ron Paul "$20" 1 ounce rounds (*not* for sale, LoL)

So, with silver approaching $46 per ounce spot, with these rounds going for roughly 5% 3% above spot, what would *you* do, hold or sell?

Proceeds from the sale would probably be used to retire some debt.

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## tsai3904

Eric Sprott just released his latest investment letter today so it's up to date with the latest news.  Take a read and see what he has to say.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Marketsat...he%20Money.pdf

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## Dr.3D

> Eric Sprott just released his latest investment letter today so it's up to date with the latest news.  Take a read and see what he has to say.
> 
> http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Marketsat...he%20Money.pdf


Seems like a very good analysis of the situation.

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## TheNcredibleEgg

If the debt is variable - sell the silver, pay off the debt.

Silver will go higher longterm - but short to medium term - the bubble mentality prevades. Yes, bubbles invariably go higher and it's impossible to call a top - but they also invariably crash. So be safe - pay off the debt in the short term. The dollar is still probably 10 years away from collapse/hyperinflation risk.

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## mport1

You need buy as an option.  That is my choice.

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## Anti Federalist

> If the debt is variable - sell the silver, pay off the debt.
> 
> Silver will go higher longterm - but short to medium term - the bubble mentality prevades. Yes, bubbles invariably go higher and it's impossible to call a top - but they also invariably crash. So be safe - pay off the debt in the short term. The dollar is still probably 10 years away from collapse/hyperinflation risk.


Debt is fixed. 

5.1% for 15 years.

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## Anti Federalist

> You need buy as an option.  That is my choice.


LoL, didn't even think of that, as my situation is going to get bad here in few months.

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## jclay2

AF, I might have to negative rep you for such an absurd idea! JK, but really, keep the silver and work especially hard to pay off the debt in the short run. You would not want to be caught in the collapse with your pants down (no silver). I would be more inclined to pay off your debt, however, if it is not on a fixed interest rate.

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## muzzled dogg

definitely sell   
















































me those norfeds

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## Anti Federalist

> AF, I might have to negative rep you for such an absurd idea! JK, but really, keep the silver and work especially hard to pay off the debt in the short run. You would not want to be caught in the collapse with your pants down (no silver). I would be more inclined to pay off your debt, however, if it is not on a fixed interest rate.


LoL I know, I know...but jeez, +$30 a round "profit"???

Mighty mighty tempting.

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## squarepusher

silver should be 10-20,000 soon

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## Anti Federalist

> silver should be 10-20,000 soon


Dollars?

That's Zimbabwe inflation and I'll have whole lot more to worry about in that case, like fending off the cycle gangs.

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## BrendenR

Can I recommend selling only part of your stash, if you decide to sell?

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## cubical

Geez, where are these liquidation sales?

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## Anti Federalist

> Can I recommend selling only part of your stash, if you decide to sell?


That's all I was planning on.

Less in fact.

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## puppetmaster

hold...if you don't you wont have the rainy day fund. besides I hear 125 is the near term price

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## libertybrewcity

Silver has been making 30+ year highs, but just as the housing market couldn't go up for ever, the silver price can't go up forever. There is nothing wrong with selling half and using the money later to buy some of it back at a lower cost. Even if silver only corrects 5 or 10 dollars, you could still make some decent money.

If you paid $15 each for 100oz Ag you would have paid 1500, and selling now you would have made 4500 revenue and 3000k profit out of that 4.5k. If the price corrects down to 30per ozAg, you could buy in and get 150 ounces. You could also spend 1500 of the 4500 to pay off debts or whatever and buy back your original 100 ounces (given the price is 30$). All in all you would making a killin.

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## Pauls' Revere

true freedom comes from being free of debt.

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## ILUVRP

to me being a small farmer is the only truly free people in the US , you can build it , tear it down , burn it , bury it , fish w/o a permit on your own pond , don't answer to anyone , being free of debt would make farming perfect but they never will be free of debt as their taxes are going through the roof .

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## Cowlesy

5.1% is a pretty reasonable rate of interest.

That being said, silver has soared, and i think it'd be wise to take some profits now and retire some of that debt.  

That way you lock in some nice gains, and you can still participate on future upside, though a bit muted, but also if it comes back to earth, it's less of your profits shaved off.

Maybe only take 25 to 33% off the table?

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## brandon

Depends on why you have the silver. If it was a short term investment and you need the money soon, then by all means get out now.  If you can wait another 20 years before cashing in, then keep holding.  I'm holding.

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## TomtheTinker

I feel you on the $30 profit..I myself have been thinking about selling off 25% of my silver.What worries me is the fact I might wake up tomorrow morning and silver is at $100.

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## K466

Considering the silver to gold ratio, I think now would be a good time to sell some silver and buy gold.

Silver is either likely to have some sort of pull back after this surge, or gold is going to do some catching up.

So, I reluctantly voted _sell_.

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## Cleaner44

Hold and buy more. Continue watching dollar decline. Continue to enjoy your _real_ money.

P.S.
Visit my home page to find companies selling PMs below spot. I am constantly scanning magazine ads for the really great deals. Right now you can buy a Canadian Silver Grizzly for $40 shipped.

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## Acala

Just remember, the biggest bubble in the history of the world is the US dollar and it has just about reached its maximum diameter.  So be wary about exchanging silver, which "might" be supported to some extent by speculation at the moment, for the dollar, which absolutely is a house of cards teetering in the breeze.

I would not trade ANY hard asset for dollars unless you can immediately convert those dollars into another hard asset.

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## Original_Intent

It depends on what "a fair amount" is. I'd probably sell 10 or 20 percent, and split the proceeds between retiring debt and cash. If we get a significant correction, I would seed the cash back into silver. If the price flattens out, you have retired some debt and not really hurt your silver position. And if silver goes to the moon, sure you always could have "made more" but as it is you quadrupled on the ones you did sell, and did a lot more on anything that goes higher.

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## ctiger2

Do NOT sell it. Spend it when it's re-monetized. It will be re-monetized along with Gold.

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## osan

> OK, let me see what my fellow forum-ites think.
> 
> I have a fair amount silver, the vast bulk of it in 1 ounce Nevada Mint, "State of Nevada" rounds.
> 
> About half those rounds were acquired at a liquidation sale at around $10 per ounce.
> 
> The other half was from the same liquidation but purchased later at around $16 per ounce.
> 
> The rest is in bars, novelty bars, and five NORFED 2007 Ron Paul "$20" 1 ounce rounds (*not* for sale, LoL)
> ...


Not enough information to make an intelligent opinion.  That said, the answer is "it depends".  If you wish to retire debt, it depends on how much debt there is, whether you can chip at it effectively through the paycheck, and so forth.  If it is a large debt and you can cover it completely, my opinion is that being debt-free is next to godliness.  If SHTF, one cannot predict how debt issues will d/evolve.  They may go away or men with guns may come to take you to a dank hole for not paying up.  I'd much rather be free of all liens on my person.

Silver and gold may well be in a bubble.  I know some say it is not possible, but many of those said the same about real estate.  Good are the chances they are not, given the fast and loose games the Fed has played with the presses, but we are in precedent-setting times and I suspect that the limits of the economic envelop are being surfed.  Maybe hyperinflation will hit, maybe not - I am not even sure the "experts" know with any credible certainty.  Only time will tell.

I would hang on to the bouillion as long as possible, ignoring momentary profit opportunities because down the road the cash you take in exchange may lose its purchasing power and then you are fooked.  As I said, if you are carrying significant debt, such as a mortgage, and you have enough to gain free title, I would go for that.  Then all you have hanging over your head is the sword of the tax burden, and in SHTF times even that may go away if things go south of the border.  If things go that amiss, I suspect your silver will no longer possess the leverage for which you acquired it.

When making such decisions I like to get back to the basics of living.  Do I have property with clear title?  Do I have a means to produce my own food?  Do I have access to good water?  And so forth.  If the end of the world is in fact nigh, nothing else matters.  You will indeed be fortunate if what remains to us will leave even these questions significant.  I have no idea what will come or when, but looking at the world as things stand, between economic suicide, shooting wars, and glow-in-the-dark Japan, it becomes daily more difficult to believe that truly dangerous days do not await us.


PS: if we have reason to believe that inflation is going only to get worse, then I would recommend you hang on to your holdings.  As the purchasing power of the $ declines, so does the value of your debt.  If we believe inflation will be high, then by all means hang on to the metals.  If it gets bad enough, take one coin and retire all your debts with change. 1/2 

PPS: One other factor: rises in income must accompany the inflation or your static debt numbers will not lose significance.  This is where I fear "they" are going to $#@! us wild and hard.  The inflation will skyrocket by wages will not.  Debt to income ratios remain close to what they were while purchasing power plunges.  That is how the USA may be taken down, so keep your eyes to this as well as it is really one of the key factors.  This is precisely how the standard of living has been slashed.  Hello.

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## osan

> Do NOT sell it. Spend it when it's re-monetized. It will be re-monetized along with Gold.


Remonetized?  By whom?  The Fed?  Let's get serious here.  States may attempt it, but they will be flying in the face of the Constitution and that will make it an uphill for them.  The feds are not likely to do it.  The goal here is to wreck the nation - surely this is apparent to you, yes?

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## enjerth

> Dollars?
> 
> That's Zimbabwe inflation and I'll have whole lot more to worry about in that case, like fending off the cycle gangs.


Bicycle gangs? Cause they won't be able to afford fuel for motorcycles.

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## ctiger2

> The feds are not likely to do it.  The goal here is to wreck the nation - surely this is apparent to you, yes?


They won't have a choice once the dollar plunges. I've already re-monetized them in my house. Sitting idly by waiting to spend.

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## Acala

> Remonetized?  By whom?


By the same folks who monetized gold and silver in the first place - the people.




> States may attempt it, but they will be flying in the face of the Constitution and that will make it an uphill for them.


The US Constitution specifically authorizes states to issue gold and silver money.




> The goal here is to wreck the nation - surely this is apparent to you, yes?


I would say the goal is to pour as much wealth as possible into the pockets of the banks and their ilk.  The destruction of the nation is just a side effect and probably one they would like to put off as long as possible since it has been the greatest money machine in history.  But all cons unravel eventually and the iron laws of economics will not be denied.  Se la vie.  They will move on to the next vicitm and leave us to wallow in our new austerity.  And probably using silver and gold as money.

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## osan

> They won't have a choice once the dollar plunges.


There's always a choice and I can all but guarantee that "they" will most certainly NOT remonetize silver and gold.  Several bad things would happen for them.  First, it would put real money in the hands of the mob, something they have worked against assiduously for well over 100 years.  Now that they are close enough to the final result to kiss it, they are going to reverse course?  Not likely.  

Second, they will take a terrible credibility hit because all of their rocket-surgeon have been trumpeting the evils of commodity money and the virtues of fiat currencies for many decades.  This sudden reversal would not bode well for them even in the eyes of many of our less intellectually inclined citizens.

These two reasons alone all but guarantee that if/when the dollar loses its utility as a currency, it will be replaced with another, equally vacuous medium and not anything substantial such as gold and silver.  To believe otherwise is, IMO, substantially divorced from reality.

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## Acala

> There's always a choice and I can all but guarantee that "they" will most certainly NOT remonetize silver and gold.  Several bad things would happen for them.  First, it would put real money in the hands of the mob, something they have worked against assiduously for well over 100 years.  Now that they are close enough to the final result to kiss it, they are going to reverse course?  Not likely.  
> 
> Second, they will take a terrible credibility hit because all of their rocket-surgeon have been trumpeting the evils of commodity money and the virtues of fiat currencies for many decades.  This sudden reversal would not bode well for them even in the eyes of many of our less intellectually inclined citizens.
> 
> These two reasons alone all but guarantee that if/when the dollar loses its utility as a currency, it will be replaced with another, equally vacuous medium and not anything substantial such as gold and silver.  To believe otherwise is, IMO, substantially divorced from reality.


Oh, I think you are correct that the banks and government will TRY to replace the dollar with another fiat currency and may succeed in part.  But I think the future is in the black market and the money of the black market is not going to be dollars or SDRs or Yuan.

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## JK/SEA

Yes, i'm planning on selling just enough to recoup my initial cost. I'm waiting for 90-100oz.

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## JamesButabi



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## nobody's_hero

+ Rep for the Braveheart reference, a movie that applies to all things Ron Paul Revolution-related.

That's quite a funny clip, lol.

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## Wolverine302

i have no f'ing clue what i'll do if it just keeps rising like this. i had a penny stock that moved like this and i never sold, and i'm shooting myself in the foot for not taking profits. however, if i were to sell, i'm not sure what hard assest i would buy. so i'll just probably hold... 
: |

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## Michael P

It could go to $100 or it could go to $25 (before it goes to $100, imo). By trying to move in and out of the market you would be speculating not investing. I would say if you need the money now then sell what you need to and hold the rest. If you don't need the money and don't want to speculate, just hold.

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## Michael P

> i have no f'ing clue what i'll do if it just keeps rising like this. i had a penny stock that moved like this and i never sold, and i'm shooting myself in the foot for not taking profits. however, if i were to sell, i'm not sure what hard assest i would buy. so i'll just probably hold... 
> : |


you really can't compare a penny stock to a PM

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## Wolverine302

> you really can't compare a penny stock to a PM


you didnt understand the message

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## osan

> By the same folks who monetized gold and silver in the first place - the people.


The likely reaction will be to make gold illegal as tender and perhaps even conduct Confiscation 2.0.






> The US Constitution specifically authorizes states to issue gold and silver money.


I thought it authorized the US Treasury to do that.  I may have to reread that bit.




> I would say the goal is to pour as much wealth as possible into the pockets of the banks and their ilk.  The destruction of the nation is just a side effect and probably one they would like to put off as long as possible since it has been the greatest money machine in history.


I think you have this precisely backwards.  I seriously doubt that token fortune is the goal.  Power and the control is affords is that which is sought.  The fortunes are but the means to that end.




> But all cons unravel eventually and the iron laws of economics will not be denied.


It's been denied increasingly over at least 125 years.  This economy is an artificial beast with few organic aspects.  This truth is rooted largely in the nature of the system of currency, which is similarly artificial.  It is a creature of their making and I suspect they understand it well enough to know where it will go in the broader strokes.  I also believe that when it unravels it will have done so purely by intention and not through accident.




> They will move on to the next vicitm and leave us to wallow in our new austerity.  And probably using silver and gold as money.


No, they will not.  They will take control in measures and ways you really do not want to think about, though you ought to IMO.  It is pure foolery to believe that mere monetary gain is the objective with these people.  If the dollar approaches zero purchasing power, having trillions of them will not be of much comfort to the former wealthy class.  The goal is to gain the world, to make it theirs alone, and to utilize the rest of us as they see fit no matter what that might entail.  These are despots and must never be confused with the merely greedy.  Their greed defines a class unto itself, setting to pale all others.  The game that is afoot is serious as a heart attack and your ass hangs in the balance, as does mine and everyone else's.

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## osan

> Oh, I think you are correct that the banks and government will TRY to replace the dollar with another fiat currency and may succeed in part.  But I think the future is in the black market and the money of the black market is not going to be dollars or SDRs or Yuan.


I think it will be perfectly successful and the reason is that as long as whatever it is they use to replace the $ has purchasing power, people will accept it.  They will accept it because their hungry children will be able to eat, and so forth.  The hitch, of course, will come in terms of the price we will have to pay in return for selling our souls to the devil.  I can easily see waivers of rights in some disguised and innocuous looking form being part of the deal.  But more likely will be the shift in relative wealth.  

Here is what I mean: imagine Johnny has 100 units of wealth in year 1.  All the Johnnies represent 24% of the total wealth in the nation, the elites holding 75%.  By year 20 his effective wealth is only 1 unit, meaning he has lost 99% of his real holdings over 20 years, even though his numbers of units are in fact higher - perhaps much higher - than they were in year 1.  The unit of wealth "collapses" and things are very bad.  People are on the edge of violence.  All of a sudden a new currency is offered, instantly tripling or even quadrupling everyone's wealth.  People will mostly fall for the trick, being happy they can now eat and go to a movie twice a year.  Those pulling the strings now hold 96% of the total value of the national asset base.  They have made a great coup, have grossly impoverished the Johnnies, and are thanked for it in the end because they "saved" Johnny from destruction... or so the perceptions go.  Johnny will be glad to have gained back his fortunes by 4x but may not realize (or care) that he is grossly impoverished when compared with his position of year 1.

But the worst aspect of this, of course, is that the Johnnies are NOT free to make their own fortunes because the economic deck is stacked hopelessly against them.  The small handful that manage to work it to their advantage are likely to be welcomed into the elite class... at least as house slaves anyhow.

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## Anti Federalist

> + Rep for the Braveheart reference, a movie that applies to all things Ron Paul Revolution-related.
> 
> That's quite a funny clip, lol.


<<<Hold!!!!>>> may be the thread I am most proud of here.

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## Anti Federalist

Thanks for all the input so far.

Cowlesy's advice taken, I've dropped the amount down to about 30 percent.

Still holding for right now though.

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## ninepointfive

super mario 2. wow didnt expect that. 

picking up silver today, my friends. remember to invest in brass, and jacketed lead

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## Jordan

> you really can't compare a penny stock to a PM


Why not?

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## Acala

> I thought it authorized the US Treasury to do that.  I may have to reread that bit..


No, I was wrong.  Or at least mashed things up a bit.  The US Constitution prohibits the states from COINING money but specifically leaves them with the authority to make gold and silver legal tender.

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## Michael P

> Why not?


Assuming you are not being sarcastic... Most penny stocks are just pump and dump vehicles and often very illiquid. They are not investments or even tools for speculation. Sometimes penny stock companies have not even met basic financial standards. In the best case scenario a penny stock is at least a tiny micro-cap company or a stock beaten into the ground, either way extraordinarily risky.  

Precious Metals are rare metallic minerals with many practical uses and represent a store of value.

About the only thing they have in common is you can purchase them and they can increase or decrease in value (true about almost anything). I wouldn't use the performance or history of a penny stock to influence my decisions of PM's.

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## Jordan

> Assuming you are not being sarcastic... Most penny stocks are just pump and dump vehicles and often very illiquid. They are not investments or even tools for speculation. Sometimes penny stock companies have not even met basic financial standards. In the best case scenario a penny stock is at least a tiny micro-cap company or a stock beaten into the ground, either way extraordinarily risky.  
> 
> Precious Metals are rare metallic minerals with many practical uses and represent a store of value.
> 
> About the only thing they have in common is you can purchase them and they can increase or decrease in value (true about almost anything). I wouldn't use the performance or history of a penny stock to influence my decisions of PM's.


Oh, I see.

So penny stocks are illiquid (marked by large differentials in bid/ask prices), and rarely cash flow.  So silver is different in that regard.

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## cubical

> Oh, I see.
> 
> So penny stocks are illiquid (marked by large differentials in bid/ask prices), and rarely cash flow.  So silver is different in that regard.


Nevermind, misread.

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## BrendenR

> Silver is illiquid? a PM doesn't make or lose money itself. Most companies that are listed as penny stocks are losing money.


He said silver was different (liquid).

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## Gideon

> OK, let me see what my fellow forum-ites think.
> 
> I have a fair amount silver, the vast bulk of it in 1 ounce Nevada Mint, "State of Nevada" rounds.
> 
> About half those rounds were acquired at a liquidation sale at around $10 per ounce.
> ... five NORFED 2008 Ron Paul "$20" 1 ounce rounds (*not* for sale, LoL) 
> 
> So, with silver approaching $46 per ounce spot, with these rounds going for roughly 5% 3% above spot, what would *you* do, hold or sell?
> ...




I altered the thread title in order to better reflect the true issue.

*Is it better to hold rampantly devaluing FRNs, or PMs and other hard assets?*

In terms of the "debt" you hold: it is always a good time to eliminate debt, but IMO that re-frames your original question in a different context.

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## Anti Federalist

I bucked the trend, sold a chunk last week at over $45, retired some debt and had enough to buy back in on the dip.

Whoo Hoo!

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## osan

> In terms of the "debt" you hold: it is always a good time to eliminate debt


Not always so.  Debt is a tool.  Used properly, it makes possible what would otherwise be unlikely.

If I can borrow at 5% and make a return on what I borrowed at 8%, I will do that all day long.  Context is the critical question.  Debt is your friend as long as your cashflow is strong.  When that stops, debt loses all its virtues.  In a good economy, debt makes things happen.  When the economy turns south... well, debt still makes things happen... just not quite so pleasant.

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## Freedom 4 all

> LoL, didn't even think of that, as my situation is going to get bad here in few months.


Well if that is your situation definitely sell. Not ALL of it obviously, but enough to cover whatever's gonna make your situation go bad.

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## jclay2

> Not always so.  Debt is a tool.  Used properly, it makes possible what would otherwise be unlikely.
> 
> If I can borrow at 5% and make a return on what I borrowed at 8%, I will do that all day long.  Context is the critical question.  Debt is your friend as long as your cashflow is strong.  When that stops, debt loses all its virtues.  In a good economy, debt makes things happen.  When the economy turns south... well, debt still makes things happen... just not quite so pleasant.


The problem with your analysis is that debt payments are an absolute certainty whereas hypothetical returns are not.

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## osan

> The problem with your analysis is that debt payments are an absolute certainty whereas hypothetical returns are not.


I believe I said precisely that, using different words.

Oh, and the debt is not assured.  Bankruptcy can take care of that.  All business is a gamble and sometimes loaners of capital lose the bet.

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## Jordan

> I believe I said precisely that, using different words.
> 
> Oh, and the debt is not assured.  Bankruptcy can take care of that.  All business is a gamble and sometimes loaners of capital lose the bet.


And 401k assets (IRAs in some states, check laws!) are protected up to $1M.

Borrow money, invest in 401k/IRA, go broke and screw the lender while keeping your $1M.

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