# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  What's Going on With Gold/Siver? Should I Invest in Oil Instead?

## AGRP

Gold/Siver/etc are taking a nose dive.  Should I move to a commodity like oil?

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## jct74

I would do the opposite: buy whatever is going down and sell whatever is going up.  And I don't know if oil is going to go much higher for the short term at least.  Since everyone seems to think that the fate of the world economy depends on keeping oil under $100, I think if it goes up much higher they will implement some type of solution to bring the price down for a while, such as restricting the trading of oil futures in some way or OPEC can just increase the production level.  Long term I think oil is going much higher though, they won't be able to contain the price long-term.

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## StilesBC

Gold is down 7.5% from the peak.  If you can't handle that kind of volatility in the PM's, you shouldn't be investing in them.  Expect 25-50% swings annually.  

And no, do not chase performance.  It is the one strategy that is guaranteed to bankrupt you.  

You should have solid diversity across as many asset classes as you can - including cash.  Adjust the weightings of each based on careful analysis - or the analysis of multiple trusted others - preferably of those with multiple backgrounds, worldviews and outlooks.

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## ctiger2

Wait til Gold hits $1280 and Silver $25. Then load the boat... Should happen shortly...

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## psi2941

just letting u know if silver ever hits 20 dollars, i'm buying $#@! load again.

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## cubical

i wish silver would go back to 20 and gold back to 1100 and I own a lot right now at these prices.

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## AGRP

Wasn't gold supposed to go to 1500 by Feb?

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## StilesBC

I see a lot of support for silver at both $17 and $15.  Not much support between here and there.  

Support for gold at $1000.  A break of $1265-1280 should be looked at bearishly for both metals.  

One man's reading of the charts...

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## cubical

> Wasn't gold supposed to go to 1500 by Feb?


according to?

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## YumYum

> Wasn't gold supposed to go to 1500 by Feb?


Gold is going to $5,000 an ounce, according to Peter Schiff.

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## squarepusher

> Gold is going to $5,000 an ounce, according to Peter Schiff.


that's silver   gold 20000

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## YumYum

> that's silver   gold 20000


Don't tell anyone...let's keep it a secret.

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## Seraphim

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/jan242011.html

*Money will come out of bonds in favor of the premier hard assets, Gold and Silver.*

When that happens, look out.

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## Bern

The paper markets are in trouble.  They are on the verge of being overrun by demand in the physical market:


> ... something serious is going on inside this comex vaults. Today we had zero activity on every front: no withdrawals , no deposits, and no deliveries.
> and we have first day notice next Tuesday????? This is totally unprecedented in comex history!!
> ...
> Looks like are banking cartel members are having trouble locating some gold. I will have to check but I believe that this is a record number of oz standing in gold for January.
> 
> and now for silver:
> 
> All I can say is another day of violent activity inside the silver vaults. Today the customer received 1,194,233 oz of silver and another customer removed 241,433 oz. Thus the net addition to the customer was a very large 952,800 oz of silver.
> There were no adjustments in silver and for that matter, no adjustments in gold.
> ...


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...-gold-and.html

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## ILUVRP

I would look at the ag ( grains ) ETF like DBA or MOO , they will go up without a raise in gold/silver , if gold/silver go up the ag's will still go up .

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## nandnor

nvm

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## jct74

> Uhh crude production is peaked. oil is the best investment in the world at the moment


Thanks for the info.  I'm not knowledgable on that subject, you would know better than I do.  But if prices go much higher, can they do anything else to knock down the prices significantly for a while, like with restricting the futures trading?  I assume they will try do that since I keep hearing all this talk that it will threaten the global economy.

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## hazek

What is going on with the paper market guys? Almost all commodities are significantly lower? Is this the paper market imploding?

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## Bern

From what I'm reading, it's blatant manipulation trying to shake weak hands and break interest in the physical stuff.  For example, the big move down in silver/gold yesterday took place on the Globex (with fewer participants to counter the naked selling) just after the markets closed in NYC.

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## Seraphim

Once silver is spot plus 10, 15 $ in premium, you'll know the paper markets are imploding. 

I really think they will let it implode once the time is right (for them) because it will scare A LOT of people off as they see the spot price drop. 




> What is going on with the paper market guys? Almost all commodities are significantly lower? Is this the paper market imploding?

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## cubical

fall just a but more and I will be buying.

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## Dr.3D

Watch the physical metals and you will see there really isn't much of a drop in the prices.

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## StilesBC

This is NOT an implosion of any kind.  People here really seem to have short memories.  PMs can move breathtakingly on a day to day basis.  In the crisis of '08, it was not abnormal to see swings of 10%.  Please don't get hysterical over a 1.5% move and claim "blatant manipulation."

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## Seraphim

exactly.

For most of our purposes, reality...the physical metals...are what we are concerned with for ourselves.




> Watch the physical metals and you will see there really isn't much of a drop in the prices.

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## hazek

I was asking only because I saw other commodities also going down, not just PMs and so I was wondering what might be the cause of that.

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## Dr.3D

> This is NOT an implosion of any kind.  People here really seem to have short memories.  PMs can move breathtakingly on a day to day basis.  In the crisis of '08, it was not abnormal to see swings of 10%.  Please don't get hysterical over a 1.5% move and claim "blatant manipulation."


Yeah, even if it is "blatant manipulation".

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## enoch150

> I was asking only because I saw other commodities also going down, not just PMs and so I was wondering what might be the cause of that.


A slowdown in the global economy would cause most or all commodities to fall a bit. If Brazil, India, and China are raising rates, Europe has some kind of austerity measures, that could slow down the economy enough that commodities take a hit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

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## juvanya

Hopefully they go down before rebounding. Altho I will be depressed thinking about how I bought all my silver at around $28-9.

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## JoshLowry

> Hopefully they go down before rebounding. Altho I will be depressed thinking about how I bought all my silver at around $28-9.


Cars (4 wheels, motor, enclosure) were around $1500 brand new in the 1950's.

Protect your purchasing power.  They are stealing from everyone.

Also brought up to me recently:  They tax your real estate yearly, but not your precious metals.

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## Danke

> Cars (4 wheels, motor, enclosure) were around $1500 brand new in the 1950's.
> 
> Protect your purchasing power.  They are stealing from everyone.


And Muscle Magazines can go for around $5 compared to 35¢ in 1954.

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## juvanya

> Also brought up to me recently:  They tax your real estate yearly, but not your precious metals.


 Dont give them any ideas!

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## Seraphim

At 27$ silver, I am thinking there is maybe another 1$ drop in store for us.

Near the end of December I had stated that  25-27$ price range correction/consolidation would be 1) healthy 2) needed 3) An entry point/buy opportunity.

Even though the trend is down right now, there is a lot of support and 27 right now is proving the be hard to go lower. Silver hits 26.80$ and the market gobbles it up and pushed it back up. 

Combine that with unprecedented demand for physical we are seeing the unravelling of paper markets and the Comex. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see 30$ spot and 50$ physical by Sept 2011. A sizeable MONEY/SAVINGS position in physical PM's (as a % of assets) will put you in a very good position over the next half decade, or more. 

It's going to get VERY bumpy and PM's will offer you some padding where you need it most.





> Hopefully they go down before rebounding. Altho I will be depressed thinking about how I bought all my silver at around $28-9.

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## TomtheTinker

> Wasn't gold supposed to go to 1500 by Feb?


That is like saying the fish are suppose to bite at 6:00 a.m.....sure its sounds about right but there are to many variables to be able to predict what golds price is going to be on any given day.

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## Bern

> ...
> It's going to get VERY bumpy ...

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## Seraphim

Just checked with my dealer.

Premiums on physical silver are up 50 cents per ounce and gold premium up 20$ per ounce.




> At 27$ silver, I am thinking there is maybe another 1$ drop in store for us.
> 
> Near the end of December I had stated that  25-27$ price range correction/consolidation would be 1) healthy 2) needed 3) An entry point/buy opportunity.
> 
> Even though the trend is down right now, there is a lot of support and 27 right now is proving the be hard to go lower. Silver hits 26.80$ and the market gobbles it up and pushed it back up. 
> 
> Combine that with unprecedented demand for physical we are seeing the unravelling of paper markets and the Comex. 
> 
> It wouldn't surprise me to see 30$ spot and 50$ physical by Sept 2011. A sizeable MONEY/SAVINGS position in physical PM's (as a % of assets) will put you in a very good position over the next half decade, or more. 
> ...

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## Bossobass

> Uhh crude production is peaked. oil is the best investment in the world at the moment


I've never believed that oil is a fossil fuel. I've never believed that anyone can predict peak oil (which Schlesinger convinced everyone was imminent in the late 70s, but now says is imminent today) and, if the wankers really believed the BS, their partners in crime would not have been building and selling 18 mpg vehicles for the past 1/2 century.

Despite the medias "no new finds since, blah, blah":




> Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey announced Friday that approximately 513 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil were found in the Orinoco belt region of Venezuela  twice as much as previously believed. 
> 
> Outside the Middle East, the largest oil reserves in the world exist in Venezuela.  The Orinoco region spans a 50,000-square-kilometer (19,305-square-mile) area in the eastern portion of the country. Nearly 20 foreign oil companies hold contracts there, according to the Latin American Herald Tribune.





> BG's Brazilian oil find will 'dwarf' BP's strike in the US Gulf Coast


Even if one remains unconvinced about peak oil and the timing of it, these 2 latest finds doubles capacity in the short term.

Gold and silver are a different story, IMO.

Bosso

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## Seraphim

There is also the emergence of alternative energy technologies that moving forward will remove some of the pressures on oil driven energy. We aren't there yet but it IS coming. Energy demand is increasing, but so is energy production.




> I've never believed that oil is a fossil fuel. I've never believed that anyone can predict peak oil (which Schlesinger convinced everyone was imminent in the late 70s, but now says is imminent today) and, if the wankers really believed the BS, their partners in crime would not have been building and selling 18 mpg vehicles for the past 1/2 century.
> 
> Despite the medias "no new finds since, blah, blah":
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Even if one remains unconvinced about peak oil and the timing of it, these 2 latest finds doubles capacity in the short term.
> 
> ...

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## Dr.3D

> This is NOT an implosion of any kind.  People here really seem to have short memories.  PMs can move breathtakingly on a day to day basis.  In the crisis of '08, it was not abnormal to see swings of 10%.  Please don't get hysterical over a 1.5% move and claim *"blatant manipulation."*


 John Embry: 'Manufactured' gold correction will produce lowest price for year
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Investors...1_pg003Emb.pdf

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## YumYum

> *I've never believed that oil is a fossil fuel*. I've never believed that anyone can predict peak oil (which Schlesinger convinced everyone was imminent in the late 70s, but now says is imminent today) and, if the wankers really believed the BS, their partners in crime would not have been building and selling 18 mpg vehicles for the past 1/2 century.
> 
> Despite the medias "no new finds since, blah, blah":
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Even if one remains unconvinced about peak oil and the timing of it, these 2 latest finds doubles capacity in the short term.
> 
> ...


This is a very interesting post. I wish you would elaborate a little more on oil not being a fossil fuel. You make some very valid points. They say we are running out, but they keep finding more oil.

Also, why do you think gold is following oil? Gold is independent of the dollar (gold goes up when dollar goes down). But lately, gold has been reacting to the moves made by oil.

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## Bern

For you YumYum: 


> Over the past several weeks there had been rumors that the reason for the precipitous drop in gold was primarily driven by a hedge fund liquidating its futures positions. This has now been confirmed: "Yeah, that was just me liquidating my spread position," Mr. Daniel Shak, [of SHK Asset Management] 51 years old, said in an interview. "I had a significant, fully margined position. The dollar amount of the gold liquidation was very small, it was just a lot of contracts."" Of course in the extremely jittery gold market, the kind of persistent marginal gross selling of contracts was all that was needed to spook week hands into a consistent dump of the precious metal, which as we pointed out was beyond overdone. Judging by this morning's jump in the precious metal SHK's liquidation is now over. Look for gold to resume its upward advance as investors realize that the gold dump was nothing more than an ongoing futures position liquidation.
> ...


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mee...ew-gold-market

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## squarepusher

> This is a very interesting post. I wish you would elaborate a little more on oil not being a fossil fuel. You make some very valid points. They say we are running out, but they keep finding more oil.
> 
> Also, why do you think gold is following oil? Gold is independent of the dollar (gold goes up when dollar goes down). But lately, gold has been reacting to the moves made by oil.


that oil is somehow produced from the earth, deep below the surface.

It does seem a bit odd, that all these dinosaurs would just pile up dead bodies, and make million gallon pools of oil.

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## Seraphim

To Yum Yum:

Central banks move and lend physical gold to foreign banks/entities in exchange for oil. Oil and gold are the worlds preservations of value. The US dollar is the official trading median for oil, but gold IS a big part of silently reprediating debts without the sheep seeing the value of gold so they can chase their legal tender, which is in effect, chasing ones own tail.

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## Anti Federalist

> This is a very interesting post. I wish you would elaborate a little more on oil not being a fossil fuel. You make some very valid points. They say we are running out, but they keep finding more oil.
> 
> Also, why do you think gold is following oil? Gold is independent of the dollar (gold goes up when dollar goes down). But lately, gold has been reacting to the moves made by oil.


In "Black Gold Stranglehold," Jerome Corsi and Craig Smith expose the fraudulent science that has made America so vulnerable: the belief that oil is a fossil fuel and that it is a finite resource. This book reveals the conclusions reached by Dr. Thomas Gold, a professor at Cornell University, in his seminal book "The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels" (Copernicus Books, 1998) and accepted by many in the scientific community that oil is not a product of fossils and prehistoric forests but rather the bio-product of a continuing biochemical reaction below the earth's surface that is brought to attainable depths by the centrifugal forces of the earth's rotation.

http://superstore.wnd.com/Black-Gold...-Oil-Hardcover

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