# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Short term metals direction?

## Brian4Liberty

For short term metals traders, where do you see them going in the near future? It feels a bit overbought (in the temporary, short-term sense). SLV has had trouble breaking through the 34 level, pulling back a bit today. What next? Will we break below 30 before the end of the year? Or bounce above 30?

----------


## thoughtomator

If you're trading day-to-day, you can pretty much count on intervention to slap down the price of silver whenever it goes above $35. It practically begs a trading strategy of shorting silver whenever it goes above, and going long when it drops below. If you'd played that over the past few weeks you'd have made a ridiculous amount of money off it.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Fixed the OP. My prices were based on SLV, not actual silver. Bet there are probably a lot of traders that focus more on SLV and GLD than the metal prices. That could have some interesting ramifications.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Just me, but I am not a big fan of short term trading.  The shorter the term, the higher the risk of something unexpected popping up and you being on the wrong side of it. A single news story can move the price in a different direction.  Also more frequent trading increases costs which reduces your overall returns.  If anybody could consistantly predict short term movements they would be millionares. Longer term investing lets you ride out the little ups and downs and keep your costs lower.

----------


## brandon

> Will we break below 30 before the end of the year? Or bounce above 30?


It's really a coinflip. Could go in either direction.  I've been holding some slv for about a year now with a $32 cost basis.  I think I may close my position any day now because there is just too much uncertainty for me.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> It's really a coinflip. Could go in either direction.  I've been holding some slv for about a year now with a $32 cost basis.  I think I may close my position any day now because there is just too much uncertainty for me.


There is a lot of self-fulfilling prophesy involved in short term market movements. People start to sell when they think it is peaking, and that in itself creates the peak. People buy when they think it has bottomed, thus creating the bottom. And you don't even want to think about how much the people on Wall St. can manipulate that process. It would be nice to be a major brokerage who can see all of it's clients sell and buy points (i.e. outstanding limit orders).

----------


## jclay2

> Just me, but I am not a big fan of short term trading.  The shorter the term, the higher the risk of something unexpected popping up and you being on the wrong side of it. A single news story can move the price in a different direction.  Also more frequent trading increases costs which reduces your overall returns.  If anybody could consistantly predict short term movements they would be millionares. Longer term investing lets you ride out the little ups and downs and keep your costs lower.


Agreed.

----------


## Seraphim

Trading precious metals in paper markets (mostly leveraged, on margin trades) - is a good way to give yourself an early heart attack. You could make a lot of money fast and you can lose a lot of money fast, both based on UNfundamentals and totally irrelevant garbage.

People who hang around these parts (RPF) are privy, thanks to their own activism, certain truths that should not be wasted.

Physical. When it comes to PM's, just buy the metal.

----------


## ILUVRP

i've been thru about 12 potus elections , if a person things obama will be reelected load the boat with gold/silver , intrade has obama at 66% chance of being the next potus.

myself i don't think there is much difference between the 2 parties , i will vote for gary johnson.

most real long term gold lovers would like to see the price go down so they can buy more at a cheaper price .

like said above gold is a long term hold , i see it doing nothing but going up , the whole world is printing paper.

----------


## NoOneButPaul

If you're looking at the short term I wouldn't bother with the PMs.

It's a long game for sure... silver is manipulated regularly by the central banks as well as gold. If you can figure out those manipulations on the paper silver market you might be able to make a good amount of money but that's not my prerogative. 

When it comes to PMs I think the best thing to do is buy phyiscal, out of the government's eyes, and wait until monetary order is restored or interest rates start to rise.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Update: SLV now at 31.73, after hitting a ceiling at 35.

(Disclaimer: this thread/information is purely for fun and entertainment. It is not to be construed as investing advise in any way. Short term trading in any market should be considered gambling.)

----------


## oyarde

Probably be 33 end of the day , but we will see.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Probably be 33 end of the day , but we will see.


SLV ended at 31.66. Got to keep in mind that SLV is not exactly the same as the price of silver.

----------


## DFF

I use a couple of moving averages to guide my entries, the 13 EMA and the 26 EMA. When they cross, I start entering my position in 1/3's. They're close to crossing now, indicating a move down. How far is anybody's guess.

----------


## brandon

I sold my SLV last week at 33.50.  Working on exiting my gold position next.

----------


## NickOdell

> I sold my SLV last week at 33.50.  Working on exiting my gold position next.


Out of curiosity, why are you selling?

----------


## brandon

My personal reason is because I'm going to use the money to buy a house this spring. There's too much volatility in metals for me right now.  I'm still bullish long term on gold and silver.

----------


## oyarde

> SLV ended at 31.66. Got to keep in mind that SLV is not exactly the same as the price of silver.


 That is right.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

SLV hit 30.93 today...

----------


## NoOneButPaul

Which is why I went to my guy and bought more  

I kind of don't want Romney to win because I think it will crash all the metals in the short term but at the same time it will make it an even better time to buy... whenever it crashes I like to get some and silver didn't really have a good week.

----------


## oyarde

I cannot figure it out ,  , so I bought some beer, copper, bacon , shrimp , pork and gold. $#@! em

----------


## Brian4Liberty

SLV closed below 30 today (29.95). Based on my original speculation, this could be the buy point (for those who attempt to buy at lows).

Then again, breaking through the 30 barrier may mean we go back to yearly lows (bounce at 26?).

----------


## oyarde

I am skeptical , 26 or , even 27 will ever be seen again ......

----------


## Brian4Liberty

SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...

----------


## puppetmaster

> SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...


Yup!

----------


## Dr.3D

> SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...


Looks like 32.11 to me.

----------


## CaptUSA

Yeah, I missed the low.  Couldn't find anyone who wanted to sell.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Obama wins. Where do metals go tomorrow?

----------


## Steven Douglas

> Obama wins. Where do metals go tomorrow?


Up, up and away.

EDIT: Too bad, I wanted time to buy some more while the market was in a holding pattern.  Half the electorate voted for the Fed's dollar to continue plummeting, which will give the illusion that all commodities elevators are taking off at once, when really it's only the FRN elevator on a descent. 

I have always said that I pity whomever is sworn into office in January, because that President AND his party are going to be left holding a TERRIBLE Fed/Bankers/Bush/Obama bag.

Happy scapegoat, Obama. That's not a can you're kicking down the road. It's a bundle of sweaty dynamite. 




> [SOURCE]
> 
> “An Obama win favors a continuation of the current easy money policy,” Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments LLC, wrote in an e-mail. “The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The market rewards this certainty by bidding up gold, selling off the dollar versus all major currencies.”
> 
> The incoming president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in January unless Congress can reach a budget compromise.

----------


## CT4Liberty

This almost feels like the perfect storm for a dollar crisis...

Already high unemployment and debt/deficit numbers - check
Large tax increases looming - check
Large federal spending cuts looming - check

We all know how this plays out, if Obama and the Republican House cant reach an agreement, then Obama's only lever to pull in trying to stop another recession is to inflate his way out of it...

----------


## fatjohn

> If you're trading day-to-day, you can pretty much count on intervention to slap down the price of silver whenever it goes above $35. It practically begs a trading strategy of shorting silver whenever it goes above, and going long when it drops below. If you'd played that over the past few weeks you'd have made a ridiculous amount of money off it.


Hmm there are a couple of rules in trading that actually endorse this:

1. Sell high and buy low
2. Never try to catch a falling knife
3. Always listen to people with a tomato in their name

----------


## presence

With Colorado and Washington, I expect Metal Halide to spike?

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Gold and silver dropping just a little, but the rest of the market is crashing. The Obama Dump!

----------


## jazzyjey

> Gold and silver dropping just a little, but the rest of the market is crashing. The Obama Dump!


SWHC and RGR are up as well.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

$29.44 silver today.

What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?

----------


## swissaustrian

> $29.44 silver today.
> 
> What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?


Short term silver might go to 28 or even lower. Speculative positions in silver in the paper markets haven't been flushed out yet like they should: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/open-...html#post18904 Technically silver is oversold as of today, however. Tommorow at 2pm ET, the FED posts their January minutes: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/fomc-t...html#post18909 I'd wait for the outcome of that before purchasing anything. It might cost you 50c per oz but it might also save you $1.5.

For gold, the picture is totally different, I think 1600 is the bottom: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/im-ca...tom-gold-2128/
Speculators have fled the gold market already. The physical market is ultra tight as indicated by rapidly falling forward rates: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/negati...html#post18806
and backwardation in the April futures contract: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/april-...ardation-2130/
The FED could still cause damage to gold tomorrow, though.

----------


## CaptUSA

Silver down to $28.50.  I'm not sure what's going on, but my guy won't sell this cheap... Grrr...

I'm expecting a jump anytime now, but I'm not sure why it hasn't happened, yet.  I was expecting this dip and planned on using it to buy, but right now, I'm a little flummoxed.  Anyone care to explain?

----------


## swissaustrian

> Silver down to $28.50.  I'm not sure what's going on, but my guy won't sell this cheap... Grrr...
> 
> I'm expecting a jump anytime now, but I'm not sure why it hasn't happened, yet.  I was expecting this dip and planned on using it to buy, but right now, I'm a little flummoxed.  Anyone care to explain?


*Options expiry is on monday*. That's why all pm prices are magicly pegged to round numbers today, gold to 1575, silver to 28.5 and platinum to 1600.
It works like this: a bank sells options to clients. Options are contracts that offer a client the right to purchase an underlying asset at a point of time in the future. The price of the future purchase is fixed at the day the option is created, it's called the strike. The customer of the option pays the bank a fee for that, called the premium E.g.:
On August 1st 2012, Bank A offered customer B to purchase 5000 oz of silver for $29/oz on January 25th 2013. B therefore paid 2% of the transaction value to the bank as the premium. Bank A will therefore cash in the premium and the options will expire worthless on January 25th IF the price of silver is at or below $29 (+2% premium).

*The formula for the Bank to make money by selling options is therefore:
At the expiry date, move the price of the commodity right to the level with the highest number of outstanding options. This way, the bank can cash in the premium and the customer loses it.* 

You would assume that *such manipulative behavior would be visible on a price chart*. You bet it is, see (as an example) this gold chart back from 2011. *Options expiry dates often marked monthly lows for gold*:

----------


## thoughtomator

Be very careful if you are short term trading metals right now - there is over-the-top blatant manipulation in progress recently, details here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...orning-mugging

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Be very careful if you are short term trading metals right now - there is over-the-top blatant manipulation in progress recently, details here:
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...orning-mugging


Good article, and good advice. I.e. always buy on Monday morning.

----------

