# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Possible of sub $20 silver?

## Lord Xar

Your thoughts, and if so - good to buy, or do you feel it could go way down?

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## ronpaulfollower999

I'm waiting to see what happens this summer. I've been thinking sub-$20 silver by July for at least a week now.

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## Jordan

100%.

Retail money hates holding losses. They love to sell!



Lots of investment interest to shake out!

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## Bern

If OP is referring to spot price, who knows.

If Jordan is referring to retail of physical, then lol.  Have you tried to buy physical silver Jordan?  You are all over the gold/silver threads, but it doesn't seem like you have ever bought any.  Premiums on physical silver are exploding.  Silver Eagles, if you can find them, are running ~20% premium right now.

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## Seraphim

It will go sub 20$ if this turn out to be a banking/soverign crisis that erupts like 2007. That will be a deflationary crash across the board and it looks like that is what is coming up.

Good luck finding much of the metal once that happens, strong hands are already moving in to buy up as much sub 25$ as possible.

Once policy response kicks in, it's off "to the moon". 

Print, print print. There's no other option outside of outright defaults and that will not be aloud to happen.

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## Jordan

> If OP is referring to spot price, who knows.
> 
> If Jordan is referring to retail of physical, then lol.  Have you tried to buy physical silver Jordan?  You are all over the gold/silver threads, but it doesn't seem like you have ever bought any.  Premiums on physical silver are exploding.  Silver Eagles, if you can find them, are running ~20% premium right now.


I bought some, and admittedly sold too early. I sold most of my "paper silver" in the mid-teens, and later dumped all my/my family's physical at or around $28-30 an ounce. I've been 100% honest about my terrible timing with silver in past threads - it's admittedly the ugliest but still profitable trade I've ever made. I wish I could claim I got in when I did (financial crisis) and dumped when I should have (2011 parabolic bubble at $50), but I'd just be a dirty liar.

Don't regret getting the hell out of silver. I'm much more comfortable with a portfolio of equities. I've made a promise to myself to avoid playing in commodities. There's too much timing involved.

P.S. I'm referring to retail investors. Mom and pop investors who are the last in and first out of any market. They always get slaughtered.

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## oyarde

There is no reason to get out when alternatives are paper.

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## Seraphim

I'd rather be in equities than actual commodities as well. Gold/silver are the exception for me. Gold is money and silver is money and a commodity. I'd rather have my cash/cash equivalents in Precious metals with a nice balance of productive company's equities and well positioned real estate.

Most of the physical PM holders around here are unleveraged long term savers. Strong hands.

When the price drops 10% in the span of 2-3 days it does nothing to us. It's the leveraged longs that get man-handled. Us unleveraged longs say THANKS FOR THE SALE.




> I bought some, and admittedly sold too early. I sold most of my "paper silver" in the mid-teens, and later dumped all my/my family's physical at or around $28-30 an ounce. I've been 100% honest about my terrible timing with silver in past threads - it's admittedly the ugliest but still profitable trade I've ever made. I wish I could claim I got in when I did (financial crisis) and dumped when I should have (2011 parabolic bubble at $50), but I'd just be a dirty liar.
> 
> Don't regret getting the hell out of silver. I'm much more comfortable with a portfolio of equities. I've made a promise to myself to avoid playing in commodities. There's too much timing involved.
> 
> P.S. I'm referring to retail investors. Mom and pop investors who are the last in and first out of any market. They always get slaughtered.

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## Lord Xar

Apmex is showing 1.60 over spot on their brand, 1oz.

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## NoOneButPaul

Don't buy the ETFs and if you buy physical you won't find anything at 20 even if the spot price is 18

Go to Ebay... search for Silver Eagles.

A roll of 20 is going for 635$ right now... that's 31.75 per Eagle. 

Physical and paper prices are starting to diverge, we are really starting to see the end game unfold here for the dollar. 

Prepare.

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## Seraphim

Important; The average miner inccurs costs of about 20$ per ounce of silver now. It depends entirely on the mine, but averaged out, we are approaching COST just to mine the stuff.

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## Seraphim

I'm getting a lot of word about shortages at dealers and multiple week wait times for delivery.

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## Seraphim

By the way, when correlated to base money, we are now approaching HISTORIC lows for gold and silver.

This is about as cheap as we will get for a long, long time. There might be a bit more to bleed down, but based on base money aggregates this is a *historic buying opportunity.*

The last time the gold price was this low compared to base money was...drum roll...the year 2000.

That's right.

This is officially the largest bear trap the world has seen in a long, long time.

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## Jordan

> Important; The average miner inccurs costs of about 20$ per ounce of silver now. It depends entirely on the mine, but averaged out, we are approaching COST just to mine the stuff.


Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.

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## Seraphim

Mmmm I read the report 2 days ago. I'm going out for the night now, I'll update this thread tomorrow with as much info as I can.




> Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.

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## muh_roads

Got into a fender-bender with a woman and she gave me $350 to not report to insurance.

Thinking about bringing the money to a coin dealer and get me some more silver at these prices.

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## Bern

> Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.





> ...
> The whole silver mining industry is seeing its costs rise, but other than its $100 million write-down, PAAS's performance in terms of cost per ounce was pretty good. The company seems to be getting costs under control as evidenced by its 4Q costs being less than its yearly average. *Also, when compared to last quarter's average silver miner costs (around $26/oz), PAAS is looking to be on the lower end with an average cost of $21.88 /oz for the 4Q and $23.72 for the year.* I cannot say I'm surprised because PAAS tends to be a lower cost producer compared to the rest of the industry, but it is nice for PAAS investors to see that they are still maintaining themselves as one of the lowest cost primary silver miners.
> ...


http://seekingalpha.com/article/1217..._article_title




> ...
> The purpose of this article is not to analyze PAAS, but rather, the whole silver industry to determine the cost of producing silver. To do so, I used the methodology that I have shown you above and applied it to as many public silver companies as I could find.
> 
> *This is what I came up with for 3Q 2012 (the most recent reported quarter), which includes the reported costs of Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE), Hecla Mining (HL), PAAS, Endeavour Silver (EXK), First Majestic (AG), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), and Gold Resource Corporation (GORO).*
> 
> 
> 
> *The third quarter production of these companies incorporates 27 million equivalent ounces and comes out to about $26.54 per ounce of silver* -- this should be shocking to investors who follow the "cash cost" number offered by silver companies.
> ...


http://seekingalpha.com/article/1209...to-mine-silver

YMMV

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## 2young2vote

There is a website I know that is selling their brand of 1oz .999 silver rounds for only $1.00 over spot any quantity.  Earlier today they  had only 1300 or so of these coins available, now they have over 4000. I think they are going to try to take advantage of the people who are buying on the dip in prices.  If it goes to $20 i will probably pick up 20-40oz.

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## Rekonn

Silver spot price $22.85, Gainesville price for 1oz 2013 silver eagle is $28.84. Apmex for same is $29.85. $6 and $7 over spot!! Here I was all happy for a buying opportunity, and there really isn't one at all. I'm going to check out a coin shop tomorrow instead, wish me luck.

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## LibertyRevolution

Yep, price drop seems to only be effecting paper... local dealers want $29...

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## Lord Xar

> Silver spot price $22.85, Gainesville price for 1oz 2013 silver eagle is $28.84. Apmex for same is $29.85. $6 and $7 over spot!! Here I was all happy for a buying opportunity, and there really isn't one at all. I'm going to check out a coin shop tomorrow instead, wish me luck.


Why wouldn't you buy like sunshine mint or some other "non american eagle" ones.. for instance, apmex has their own brand for like 1.60 over spot.

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## Rudeman

Would it be worth going for an apmex bar instead of a silver eagle?

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## Lord Xar

> Would it be worth going for an apmex bar instead of a silver eagle?


hey! that is what I am asking you! :-)

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## talkingpointes

> I bought some, and admittedly sold too early. I sold most of my "paper silver" in the mid-teens, and later dumped all my/my family's physical at or around $28-30 an ounce. I've been 100% honest about my terrible timing with silver in past threads - it's admittedly the ugliest but still profitable trade I've ever made. I wish I could claim I got in when I did (financial crisis) and dumped when I should have (2011 parabolic bubble at $50), but I'd just be a dirty liar.
> 
> Don't regret getting the hell out of silver. I'm much more comfortable with a portfolio of equities. I've made a promise to myself to avoid playing in commodities. There's too much timing involved.
> 
> P.S. I'm referring to retail investors. Mom and pop investors who are the last in and first out of any market. They always get slaughtered.


LOL EQUITIES AND YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT BUBBLES. I'm all in on equities as well, but only to short. Why didn't you keep the silver for a carry trade - you can't possible think the dollar is going to last the span of your life ?

104% on TKECY in two weeks. 2$ stock with tons of inflation to send it sky high. (the only non-short with MCP)

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## Rekonn

> Why wouldn't you buy like sunshine mint or some other "non american eagle" ones.. for instance, apmex has their own brand for like 1.60 over spot.


Well, I haven't bought any physical silver or yet, so I'm a newbie to this, but I figure I'd get the bullion that was in highest demand. If I need to sell it someday, I'd want to get the kind that the most people want because that would be the easiest to sell.

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## Bern

The market for Silver Eagles and 90% are very liquid.  You won't have any problem selling them (assuming you can find any right now).

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## Rekonn

Great, liquid is what I'm looking for. Maple Leafs are liquid too, right? I think my first gold coin is going to be a 2013 1oz Maple Leaf. I like the new anti counterfeiting micro engraving feature. Interestingly, the cost over spot for gold hasn't changed at all. 

Found a coin dealer near where I work, asked what the price would be for a roll of 20 silver eagles, he said $29 per coin. Still way over spot, but better than anything online, and without the extra cost of shipping.

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## dannno

> Found a coin dealer near where I work, asked what the price would be for a roll of 20 silver eagles, he said $29 per coin. Still way over spot, but better than anything online, and without the extra cost of shipping.


Have you tried this place? No silver eagles, but lots of other inexpensive options around $25/$26 and the shipping is very reasonable.

http://www.amagimetals.com/silver.html?cat=12&p=1

They even accept bitcoin.

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## Bern

> ... Maple Leafs are liquid too, right? ...


Yes.

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## toathis

I bought silver two years ago and have lost money in my investment which was supposedly supposed to "Protect my purchasing power"

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## KevinR

> I bought silver two years ago and have lost money in my investment which was supposedly supposed to "Protect my purchasing power"


SOON.

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## Shane Harris

> Have you tried this place? No silver eagles, but lots of other inexpensive options around $25/$26 and the shipping is very reasonable.
> 
> http://www.amagimetals.com/silver.html?cat=12&p=1
> 
> They even accept bitcoin.


Very good prices and they actually have Buffalo rounds (albeit Golden State Mint). I might use this site from now on. Shipping is much more reasonable than APMEX. Are they reliable?

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## FSP-Rebel

> Are they reliable?


I liked them at first too. Then I told my local dealer, who wasn't selling at the time, about them cuz he was wanting to find more but he checked the FB page and allegedly it's riddled with complaints. I haven't checked further so that's all I got atm.

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## Crystallas

When everyone was sold out/backlogged, I bought from https://www.bulliondirect.com/index.jsp 

So far, so good. Bought 25 1oz maples, received them 15 minutes ago.

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## Shane Harris

> I liked them at first too. Then I told my local dealer, who wasn't selling at the time, about them cuz he was wanting to find more but he checked the FB page and allegedly it's riddled with complaints. I haven't checked further so that's all I got atm.


thanks

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## Acala

> I bought silver two years ago and have lost money in my investment which was supposedly supposed to "Protect my purchasing power"


You haven't lost anything unless you sold.  And if you sold, you were not paying attention to what people here have been saying.

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## Aldanga

> thanks


They've got a thread on Bitcoin Talk. They're apparently backlogged with orders right now, but have lots of good feedback there. Link if you want it.

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## Carson

> I bought silver two years ago and have lost money in my investment which was supposedly supposed to "Protect my purchasing power"


If you've still got it you haven't lost a thing. 

At least the way I'm thinking. The only thing that has changed is the exchange rate. With the value of the dollar increasing I'm thinking the economy is getting stronger also. With the way things are going with the printing presses it seems like the dollar value will fall again. The economy will hit the skids *but anywhere along the line you sell you still get your value out of your silver*.

The same value that you put in at least...


until you pay the capital gains taxes on the illusion of a gain. 

Then again if you were to sell at the illusion of a loss...? I've never done that before with silver.

But still.

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## oyarde

I do not think the economy is getting stronger , I still expect global slow down, March existing home sales down slightly , considering by now , most tax refunds are back and March is a 31 day month I do not view that as good . Cat is expecting less than expected sales , I do not view that as good. Many are about to get out of school and find no jobs. I see nothing but illusion, the facts are still stagnant with the potential for worse . There will continue to be an employment problem , best I can tell ..... summer normally brings higher fuel prices , then winter rising utility costs . These become major problems when wages do not increase and employment is dim. Food & energy will continue to cost more , I imagine.Less people working , less discretionary income.Just my guess.

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## enoch150

I don't understand this. If you could sell physical silver at $30 and buy SLV at $22, why wouldn't you do that and then swap back into physical when the prices converge? I doubt that divergence is going to be permanent. Either SLV is going to come up or physical will come down, but either way you should end up with more ounces of physical at the end of the trade.

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## Bern

Bird in the hand...

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## Jordan

> I don't understand this. If you could sell physical silver at $30 and buy SLV at $22, why wouldn't you do that and then swap back into physical when the prices converge? I doubt that divergence is going to be permanent. Either SLV is going to come up or physical will come down, but either way you should end up with more ounces of physical at the end of the trade.


There's more to the price of silver than just the silver. Moving it, pressing it into 1oz coins, insuring it, all costs a boatload of money.

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## Bossobass

Having sold @ $34, I'm dying to get back in at $23, but...

Silver Pandas = SOLD OUT!
ASE = SOLD OUT!
Maples = SOLD OUT
ASE SF Mint = SOLD OUT!
Buffalos = SOLD OUT!
Mexican Libertad = Spot + $3.50

Yeah, lousy investment, that silver bullion nonsense, everyone with any is dumping it in a panic 

What does it matter the price against the USD when you can't buy any????

Personally, I'd take several monsters @ $23 spot... in a heartbeat.

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## buenijo

Sub $20 silver? Well, considering that the price is roughly $30 at the moment that's a long way to fall... oh, were you referring to the "spot price"? Look, premiums on investment grade silver coins (U.S. eagles and Canadian maples) is $6 over this nebulous "spot price", and that assumes a bulk purchase while also waiting a while for delivery. We saw the same thing during 2008 when the "spot price" for silver dropped by 50%. Anything can happen in these markets, but either way I think it's important to recognize the reality that there exists a price for paper silver and a price for physical silver, and the two are only loosely correlated at best. I was really excited during 2008 when the "spot price" for silver dropped to $10. I jumped online to buy silver only to be sorely disappointed as I couldn't find any! Furthermore, I had to pay nearly $6 over "spot price" to finally get it, and wait a month for delivery. One of the main reasons why I chose to purchase at the higher price was because of the clear deviation between the paper price vs. physical price. That was and is good circumstantial evidence for a very tight market in physical silver. This reminds me of a story: a woman goes into a supermarket looking to buy prime rib. She is shocked at the price of $20 and asks the butcher why the price so high saying, "The market down the street sells it for $10!". The butcher replied, "Well, why don't you go there?". The lady sighed, "They've been out of prime rib for the last week." "Ah," replied the butcher, " but when I'm out of prime rib I sell it for $5!".

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## Michigan11

3 virds in the hand. worth about $50 bucks tdday

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## Michigan11

I reach down.....ease th eseat back....

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## osan

I have been quoted $0.25 over spot for .999 shot.  Minimum 200 ozt. to avoid $50 service fee.  I can afford maybe 10 or 15 ozt.

Anyone interested?

1 ozt. .999 coin blanks, 1.75 over spot, min. 40 ozt.

Can also get 10 ozt. bars, .75/ozt over spot.

I'd like to get a 200 ozt. shot order in.  Can't afford to do one smaller, so if enough are interested, I would be willing to broker this.  Might be able to get drop shipping done, though have nor asked yet.  

I can recast into ingots and roll into sheet.  I don't think you will find it cheaper than this anywhere.

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## buenijo

> I have been quoted $0.25 over spot for .999 shot.  Minimum 200 ozt. to avoid $50 service fee.  I can afford maybe 10 or 15 ozt.
> 
> Anyone interested?
> 
> 1 ozt. .999 coin blanks, 1.75 over spot, min. 40 ozt.
> 
> Can also get 10 ozt. bars, .75/ozt over spot.
> 
> I'd like to get a 200 ozt. shot order in.  Can't afford to do one smaller, so if enough are interested, I would be willing to broker this.  Might be able to get drop shipping done, though have nor asked yet.  
> ...


I recommend against silver shot. In general, silver shot is purchased by jewelers for the fabrication of silver products. I can say from experience that it's extremely difficult to resell silver in that form. For that reason I purchase only investment grade silver (silver eagles, silver maples, royal mint silver bars, etc.). "Junk" silver is ok simply because it's recognizable as silver. That's the main problem... when it comes time to sell/trade silver you have to be able to convince the buyer that you have silver. I've found that any savings in lower premiums today is likely to be lost in the trade later. For example, even APMEX is buying silver eagles in the open market (from customers) for $3.50 over spot. The best deal I've found so far is bulk 2013 silver eagles at gainesvillecoins.com for $4.55 over spot (with bank wire and week delay on delivery).

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## oyarde

Well right now , silver @ $24.04 , gold $1462.90, Copper , about $3.20 , Palladium $678 , platinum $1476. Of course , I doubt anyone could buy any for that .....

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## kpitcher

Amagi looks like they have decent pricing on silver coins. With silver at 24 their 1oz rounds are 26.49
http://www.amagimetals.com/silver/1-ounce.html

Never ordered with cash there but have used them with bitcoins so not sure how price competitive they are.

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## Carson

*buenijo*,

Your link has some interesting stuff to look at.

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/bestseller.aspx


I'm a little leery of buying some of the ones that are, "Design". Still some are nice and the website does have some variety to check out.

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/prod...-999-pure.aspx



P.S. You too *kpitcher*,

-http://www.amagimetals.com/silver/1-...irl-round.html

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## buenijo

Carson, In general I avoid numismatics (i.e. "designer" bullion coins) as well. However, I had a great experience with Chinese pandas. The Chinese one ounce silver panda is a Chinese government sanctioned coin that is truly beautiful. Few are minted each year, and a new design is released every year. What this tends to do is increase the value over time simply due to scarcity. Check premiums for recent pandas vs. older pandas and you'll see clearly that the premiums increase over time. Well, I bought 100 2008 pandas in 2008 along with a very large purchase of 2008 silver eagles. I got the pandas for just under $20 per coin (about $8 over spot). I later sold them for $75 (about $32 over spot). Of course, fancy silver is not going to matter much in a worst case scenario, but I don't buy into the worst case scenario. We must be mindful of statistics folks: "worst case" is by definition unlikely to transpire. If I could do it over again I would buy all pandas and forgo the eagles.

The lesson here is that a high premium is not inherently bad. I also note that I routinely get between $1.50 and $2.00 over spot when I sell silver eagles to local coin shops (which I rarely do) even when nothing strange seems to be going on in the silver market. Right now APMEX is paying $3.50 over spot for silver eagles. LESSON: You often get back higher premiums that you pay... or more as in the case of the pandas. For example, 2013 pandas are $10 over spot at APMEX (bulk price). If you can find older years they are often $100 or more over spot. Perhaps I should have bought and held more pandas.

The single most important thing in buying silver is that you get a form that is most recognizable as silver. Consider not only the initial purchase, but the future reselling.

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