# Lifestyles & Discussion > Bitcoin / Cryptocurrencies >  $551/btc Christmas? Interpolation Infographic

## presence



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## presence

http://i40.tinypic.com/262l1rl.png
to see full size image


****UPDATE****
*
 12/16/2013* Bitcoin China hit a low of 3251 (6.07 exchange rate)


*$535.58*
*$610.00 on the btce exchange*

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## PaulConventionWV

> http://i40.tinypic.com/262l1rl.png
> to see full size image


Why should we listen to you?  What have you predicted correctly in the past to make us think you can predict this?

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## dannno

> Why should we listen to you?  What have you predicted correctly in the past to make us think you can predict this?


I think he predicted the first 300 - 600 break out, but it was preceded by a primary prediction that it would go back down.. something to the effect of, it will go up to 250 then down to 150, but if it goes above 300 then it is going all the way to 600 and it did. 

They are timing the market and not really investing in the longterm viability of the currency, although I hope they are investing SOME amount in the longterm viability otherwise I think they will miss out.. tho I am pretty sure they have made a pretty good return, probably better than my purely buy and hold until it goes up really high then buy a little silver each time return.

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## presence

> I think he predicted the first 300 - 600 break out, but it was preceded by a primary prediction that it would go back down.. something to the effect of, it will go up to 250 then down to 150, but if it goes above 300 then it is going all the way to 600 and it did. 
> 
> They are timing the market and not really investing in the longterm viability of the currency, although I hope they are investing SOME amount in the longterm viability otherwise I think they will miss out.. tho I am pretty sure they have made a pretty good return, probably better than my purely buy and hold until it goes up really high then buy a little silver each time return.



To "invest in the long term viability of the currency" is to have cash when crypto needs cash; and to have crypto for sale when people are willing to pay to much for it.


When crypto needed cash after the April crash... I bought.
When people were paying too much @ 7588y... I sold.

Peaks and valleys along the way?  I was the sponge washing the bloody knife.




The day trader's job is to provide liquidity to the market.

crypto is overbought right now, to buy and hold now is only to exaggerate the condition









Through November, bitcoin was gaining over 5% daily... grossly over the 0.59% daily long trend.

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## presence

> Why should we listen to you?  What have you predicted correctly in the past to make us think you can predict this?




http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...st-to-48-short

Here in this thread I suggest you buy LTC $28.2, I later advised to sell at $34.5

22.3% gain in less than 2 days.

Since suggesting sell @ 34.5 the price is last $30

13% stop loss.

In this thread:

*Thread: LTC - Litecoin 30-40 price channel? Dec 5th*

I project a sale point of $37.  Price crashed to $30 shortly there after. 


In this thread 12/7  I suggested currency war:

and noted the $5billion dollars that moved out of bitcoin in 1 hour:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-Wild-Pressure




> Market cap dropped almost $5B in one single candlestick.  Massive chinese pump and dump.


today rawstory picked it up:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/12/1...about-bitcoin/





> China is the world’s biggest market for trading Bitcoins, but around  $5.0 billion was wiped off the value of the currency’s global stock  within an hour of an announcement from Beijing’s central bank in early  December, banning financial institutions from dealing in it.


Here I noted
*Thread: China Panic Buying Litecoin*


LTCcny went from 225 when I posted the thread to 380cny high in 20 hours. 

+68%




I was banned from the btce trollbox once... the day I "screamed" in all caps

Buy $69.999/BTC at the bottom of the April Crash.


I've also been posting charts and analysis all month... check the trollbox archive "litepresence"; I've been quite accurate:

http://trollboxarchive.com/about.php




> cryptkings
> 26522655
> 21 Hours Ago
> litepresence you were right earlier man, seems downtrend is over, thnx for the breakdown





> 999FINE
> 26350661
> 2 Days Ago
> Litepresence  very Impressive. That looks like what I was expecting from the 12h  charts and 15m charts. idk if we will see another huge spike soon, but i  plan on selling on these isolations just like that graph showed. $#@! dude, that graph is highly accurate, down to the "jigsaw" pattern we are seeing now. Amazing






> btczen
> 26337401
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence, thank you! I do think the chart today maybe affected by social media events! It BTC/LTC  crash because China farted the other day. Then Wall Street adopting bit  coin should theoretically send everything to the moon. Who knows this  place is crazy town!





> Karlova27
> 26335939
> 3 Days Ago
> AntiPro, people put walls to try to prop it up, yeah, and I agree, it's not working anymore, ltc is on a crystal clear corrective downtrend, litepresence was right,





> okay
> 26309161
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence, i saw that and was thinking similar. good job both of us high five





> littleguy
> 26293007
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence, hey thanks for the tip, worked great.



here's a post @ bitcointalk regarding my quant:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?to...212#msg3953212

[quote author=GigaCoin link=topic=370058.msg3953374#msg3953374 date=1386965384]
Thanks for the analysis Litepresence, always appreciated.

litepresence is actually a v good technicals/chart analyst, i know him since back in March 2013 from Btc-e. He has been pretty much spot on the vast majority of times, i def wouldn't underestimate his analysis / predictions.
[/quote]



I could go on.  

Good luck my friends.






> Swof
> 26285653
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence, you know... with fontas gone you are now our leader?






> philuk2000
> 26284865
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence, keep up the good work, I can't validate your graphs or methods, but I trust you're being legitimate.





> choseh
> 26283207
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence is the first person in the trollbox i would trust






> jasinlee
> 26239211
> 3 Days Ago
> litepresence sends me nice little updates on forecasts every once in a while





> btc1776
> 26222691
> 3 Days Ago
> blackbird307,  touche  @litepresence, thnx trying to get better at this whole  trading thing always looking for quality trading advice




........

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## newbitech

massive H&H and douple top H&S formed in BTC chart the depth has slowly been shifting from buy side to sell side.  

huge down drafts in the market,  daily MA cross coming really soon.  

Big test coming,  I am looking for that overshoot on the downside, possibly as low as 250.

BTC charts have crash written all over them.

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## presence

> BTC charts have crash written all over them.



I'm 100% fiat for the first time in months since 6000y/btc.

Not even working daily shorts.

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## dannno

> I'm 100% fiat for the first time in months since 6000y/btc.


What if the markets crash tomorrow somewhere, they install a bitcoin ATM and it goes up to $5k? 

Technical analysis is a great thing, but if I were as sure as you are about your technical analysis I would still probably be holding 50/50 btc vs. fiat, just in case..

That said I may sell 10% of what I have and put it into fiat so if the dip happens I can buy more.. but I really get the feeling if I do that it is just going to go up

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## presence

> What if the markets crash tomorrow somewhere, they install a bitcoin ATM and it goes up to $5k? 
> 
> Technical analysis is a great thing, but if I were as sure as you are about your technical analysis I would still probably be holding 50/50 btc vs. fiat, just in case..
> 
> That said I may sell 10% of what I have and put it into fiat so if the dip happens I can buy more.. but I really get the feeling if I do that it is just going to go up




monitor your 508 585 660 and 698 MAs on your 5m btce btcusd wisdom chart


We had an upswing... they diverged... upswing fail... long trends are converging again.... she's going back under. 

Good luck

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## presence

a few changes... just not to "edit the op"

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## PaulConventionWV

> http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...st-to-48-short
> 
> Here in this thread I suggest you buy LTC $28.2, I later advised to sell at $34.5
> 
> 22.3% gain in less than 2 days.
> 
> Since suggesting sell @ 34.5 the price is last $30
> 
> 13% stop loss.
> ...


Very interesting.  What is your advice for a long-term holder right now?  Should I sell and reenter at a lower rate?  The rate right now is only slightly higher than it was when I got in so I wouldn't be losing money, but I'm still not sure if I can trust your analysis that the price will go down.  Can you explain your reasoning?  I would appreciate it.

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## presence

> Very interesting.  What is your advice for a long-term holder right now?  Should I sell and reenter at a lower rate?  The rate right now is only slightly higher than it was when I got in so I wouldn't be losing money, but I'm still not sure if I can trust your analysis that the price will go down.  Can you explain your reasoning?  I would appreciate it.





My reasoning is multifaceted

1) http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png  (not my image) We're well above our 0.59% daily interest rate; all of november was 5% daily. 

2) http://i.imgur.com/sWZ9OCT.png (not my image) This is a very telling image, quite concerning and posted while price was still 6000y; 5400y last

3) Interpolation analysis from last night per OP

4) Financial institutions banned from trading BTC in China

5) Posted this: http://i42.tinypic.com/2l9qd1v.png three days ago... look what happened: http://i42.tinypic.com/2j26psw.png

6) I've networked myself well in the trollbox at btce... I use an addon to change people's names to green if I know they trade 100k or more... the green names are bearish right now.

7) I'm on a string of very accurate "head and shoulders" calls on the shorts, check the trollbox archive... although I haven't traded on them because I'm awaiting the second red bar http://i42.tinypic.com/2l9qd1v.png which is simply too risky to F with.

8) A bubble is a bubble... it was 1000y last month... jacked to 7588 in 30 days when it was jackin'   Ain't jackin' no more and hasn't been for a week now... and we still aren't too far from 7588.  That to me mean we have bubble deflation yet to come.   Maybe slow maybe fast... but we're jacked.  Things chill, then pump, then crest, then dump... then repeat.  I get crest vibe.

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## presence

Parabolic up moves on "new money"

We're going to parabolic up between Dec12th and Christmas?  Not happening in the Christian world.



.............................

I think the question right now is not "up/or down"  I think we can safely assume down (on monthly; medium term... I'm a long $100,000/btc bull).  

5% a day for 30 days?  Pump fail for a week.   I say down at the moment is the safe bet:

 Go cash, let it crash, take 50% more chikun then you were holdin' before at the bottom.  


I'm a bull and I'm a believer I'm "risking 2x gain long" for a 50% short.  If you check your prices a few times a day its not nearly as hectic as sponging bloody 5 minute candles and tallying trading fees.  

I would go so far as to say you're actually doing the market a favor, doing a good deed; helping it by not hoarding during periods of peak demand.   You're providing the flexiblity it needs as it grows.  For this you deserve a profit: cheap chikun.



IMHO the real question is:

C to D to E to F to G to H

C to D to E to H

or 

C to D to H


$1000 8/14 is still way out in the future.

and if we're headed to H... which our long log trend says Dec = $274.



http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Then right now I want to be holdin' $551 crypto, not $859.50last crypto, at the very least.

We can talk about our choice at D when we get there; be it hold our buy... or short sell it on the way down H (if my triple top Interpolation dream should fail).





October 2nd was the gold mine.  October 26th was our last day on earth.  


The rest is just a bubble


Look straight forward from the october 2nd low through 10/26 low... project, you'll see where this bubble will close. 


Same thing in April 2013
Same thing in August 2012



Same thing in the unrelated tech bubbles in 1996


alt coins are .coms and bitcoin is yahoo




facebookgoogletwittercoin hasn't even been invented yet 


H = $366





$550/$850?
35% reduction in value.  


$850 to $366?
57% reduction in value




Do you bet on 0.59% Daily BTC long?

or

5% Daily November 2013?
 (ie 5% Daily April 2013)


I'm holdin' fiat until Christmas or further notice.



---------------------------------------------------




> In the mathematical field of numerical analysis, *interpolation* is* a method of constructing new data points* within the range of a discrete set of known data points.
> 
>  In engineering and science, one often has a number of data points, obtained by sampling or experimentation, which represent the values of a function for a limited number of values of the independent variable. It is often required to *interpolate* (i.e. estimate) the value of that function for an intermediate value of the independent variable. This *may be achieved by curve fitting* or regression analysis.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation


you have to look at the first leg of an interpolation with most confidence... confidence fading with time.

D is definitely under C;  tells me dump.  



 and I broke out my best photoshop skillz to make things line up nice.  


If you want a copy of the layers I used send me a pm and stretch them "best fit" yourself.




So why do I think this event was so important... 


1) it was close in time to the big parabolic gain in november.  
2)It was 2 tiers of parabolic movement that played out on the 5m scale on all major exchanges, both LTC and BTC... and it seemed LTC lead.
3)It established a "relationship" between bullish and bearish tendency "now"
4) it failed because it had to fail.  We were so far under our long moving averages that there was no chance of penetration.... and now were back down at the same price level we were before it happened hashing out the same 5450 price point.  

I interpolated through curve fitting the 2 "tiers" of 5m data to the top 2 "tiers" of the log 6h data from the last 2 months.  You'll have to bear with me on why all that... but I made it fit, and extrapolated data points.

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## newbitech

> I'm 100% fiat for the first time in months since 6000y/btc.
> 
> Not even working daily shorts.


I got caught holding 900 took the daily right shoulder pit 50% retrace ride, got out on right daily cheek for a decent 10% gain, stuck a toe in around hourly right shoulder pit got out at the hourly right cheek for another 10%.  I'm straight cash as well.  no sense in risking 80% for 10% if the pattern confirms.   If the pattern doesn't confirm then I will ride the daily tripple top and do it all over again in a week.  

this is easy call right here.  100% fiat, let it ride.

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## PaulConventionWV

> I got caught holding 900 took the daily right shoulder pit 50% retrace ride, got out on right daily cheek for a decent 10% gain, stuck a toe in around hourly right shoulder pit got out at the hourly right cheek for another 10%.  I'm straight cash as well.  no sense in risking 80% for 10% if the pattern confirms.   If the pattern doesn't confirm then I will ride the daily tripple top and do it all over again in a week.  
> 
> this is easy call right here.  100% fiat, let it ride.


I'm convinced.  Fiat all the way (for now).

As a side note, I am sort of proud of the fact that I just day-traded my .8779 BTC into 25 LTC and back to .9032 BTC.  Now time to convert the whole stash into cash.

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## muh_roads

Just like binary.  0 or 1

50% chance of this happening.

It is in the media's hands.  More retards now own than straight libertarians.  The media did a good job of convincing people that China banned Bitcoin, even though that wasn't true.

I'm in the bear camp.  But I've been wrong many times before.  Volume @ $200 was also weak and it shot up.

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## newbitech

> I'm convinced.  Fiat all the way (for now).
> 
> As a side note, I am sort of proud of the fact that I just day-traded my .8779 BTC into 25 LTC and back to .9032 BTC.  Now time to convert the whole stash into cash.


Just make sure to figure in your trade commissions in your P/L when you plan your positions.  Need to cover that spread too.

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## PaulConventionWV

> Just make sure to figure in your trade commissions in your P/L when you plan your positions.  Need to cover that spread too.


Yes, I factored that in.  Just sold this morning and about broke even.  Looks like it was a good time to do it so far.

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## presence

> litepresence: koenberretty,  I count beans; I predict crashes.  Fiat or cry my friend.  Check the  archive... been chantin' 4 straight days... since price point $964/btc  btce.  853last; listen back then = 13% stop loss.


http://trollboxarchive.com/search.ph...resence&page=1


"fiat or cry"

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## Dianne

I'm a complete noob, having only created a btc wallet a little over a week ago.     I don't understand half what you guys are saying, but is the general gist that BTC is about to take a nose dive?

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## presence

> I'm a complete noob, having only created a btc wallet a little over a week ago.     I don't understand half what you guys are saying, but is the general gist that BTC is about to take a nose dive?


Yes.  $550 bottom near Christmas.  

We just had another 1m candlestick breakout in the last hour, here is the interpolation from that event on the 12h




This is the short event I just interpolated displayed on 3m sticks:

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## dustinn

Thanks for all of your updates presence. Out of everyone from the trollbox you and CaptainScio (https://twitter.com/captainscio) are the ones I trust.  Taking your advice once again on this one and will pull the trigger after Christmas when prices are lower.  Hopefully one day I can be as good as you at reading charts lol

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## amonasro

I've been dollar cost averaging for a few months and it's worked out pretty well. So basically buying every week/every other week with whatever extra I can spare. Still kicking myself for holding off at $600 recently, granted I didn't have any cash at the time.

This market is simply too volatile for traditional TA, although it can give good insight. I had better luck while watching the tape like a hawk, spotting patterns, learning what the bots are doing, and waiting for inevitable whale dumps/buys that inevitably push the price down/up beyond resistance levels. Spotting the manipulation and constantly changing your strategy to match it is the best way to make money here, but it requires lots of time to simply read the tape at all major exchanges, all the time.

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## presence



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## Dianne

> Yes.  $550 bottom near Christmas.  
> 
> We just had another 1m candlestick breakout in the last hour, here is the interpolation from that event on the 12h
> 
> 
> 
> Wow BTC was around 820. this morning.   I ran a couple of errands, came home and it dropped around $100.     So do you think it will bottom out in the 500's, or a chance of going lower?
> 
> 
> This is the short event I just interpolated displayed on 3m sticks:


[QUOTE=presence;5342617]Yes.  $550 bottom near Christmas.  

We just had another 1m candlestick breakout in the last hour, here is the interpolation from that event on the 12h



Wow BTC was around 820. this morning.   I ran a couple of errands, came home and it dropped around $100.     So do you think it will bottom out in the 500's, or a chance of going lower?

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## bw68

...

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## presence



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## newbitech

I think it's going a lot lower than 550 for christmas.. sad to say

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## presence



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## Dianne

> 


What about LTC, will it also have a dramatic adjustment?   It seems like just a month ago it was struggling to hit $2.00 .

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## dustinn

> What about LTC, will it also have a dramatic adjustment?   It seems like just a month ago it was struggling to hit $2.00 .


Dramatic adjustment? For sure.  Maybe momentarily, but remember that LTC closely follows the trends of BTC (compare the two on bitcoinwisdom).  I'm looking to get back into LTC at ~$15.

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## PaulConventionWV

I'm glad I sold at $860.  Convinced my dad to sell some, too.

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## presence



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## presence

> What about LTC, will it also have a dramatic adjustment?   It seems like just a month ago it was struggling to hit $2.00 .

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## Dianne

> 


LMAO ...  don't understand anything in that chart.

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## newbitech

LTC chart actually looks alot better than BTC charts.  LTC is displaying a bullish pennant  and is in the middle of a symmetrical triangle,  im buying the ltc dips for a hedge against my non existent BTC position at this point.

I only keep about 5% of my crypto as LTC but right now im at 100% that's how bad the BTC charts look.

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## ronpaulfollower999

> LMAO ...  don't understand anything in that chart.


All I got was

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## presence



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## Dianne

> All I got was


Well done vid !!

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## Dianne

> I think it's going a lot lower than 550 for christmas.. sad to say


seems to be on a free fall (

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## FSP-Rebel

Have to admit I sold a coin on crypto-trade to see what it was like @ $970, in the process of buying close to a coin and a half back if the order goes through. I'm thinking I'll add this to my securities shares on the Galt's Gulch Chile Organic Farm.

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## newbitech

On the daily for the dollar pair you are now sitting on top of major support at the following levels...

Stamp 625 from 11/19 bounce off 11/16 china volatility. 
Gox in no mans land really at 700, should also be looking at major support 650 from the 11/16 china volatility bounce. (gox is levitating should catch down to the other majors soon if your trading that exchange.)
China 3250 11/16 break out peak and launch pad for super breakout that led everything to high water mark.  

Those levels providing very strong support.  Now the buyers have to start thinking about putting a toe in the water.   there are only 2 more major support levels from here as follows...

Stamp 350 from 11/8
Gox 400 from 11/8
China 2400 from 11/8

and finally

Stamp 200 stable range from 10/22 - 11/2
gox 225 stable range from 10/22-11/2
China 1300 stable range from 10/22-11/2

my guess is, we see a break 10-15% below current levels, we will be pulling all the way back to stability.   That being said, not looking for a dramatic sharp spike, but the slow steady sell off we've seen since the peak dead cat bounce.  sort of like the last bubble fizzle off, and then reestablish the steady growth trend.  

Christmas is 10 days away.  I'm guessing we shave 10% a day till then on average.  Big new years bounce then a couple months stead until spring then BOOM!  another exponential bubble when 2nd quarter kicks in.

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## presence

Funny... 2 degrees F outside tonight... seems hell just froze over.

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## newbitech

yep we hitting a cycle bottom, nows a good time to start scalping again.  im on it.

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## PaulConventionWV

> yep we hitting a cycle bottom, nows a good time to start scalping again.  im on it.


What does that mean?

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## dustinn

> What does that mean?


Making smaller trades for some profit.  Not holding for a long time.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/scalping.asp

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## newbitech

> What does that mean?


we are at a strong support level in a generally bearish market trend.  I expect some consolidation at this level before the next move, either short bounce or another lurch down.  In the mean time, price should stabilize enough to present some quick opportunities to play the spread. 

I'm watching the 5 minute and 1 minute charts looking for set ups in the L2 activity.  Only taking about a 20% position here and making sure to cover the commission.  really just looking to add to my fiat position on the way down.

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## Dianne

Are we still thinking $550.?

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## presence

> Are we still thinking $550.?



See second post.  You've missed it at this point.  We hit 3251y yesterday; $535.  BTCE dipped to $610.

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## PaulConventionWV

Wait, so what's the simplified version of this?  You think it's done going down?

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## presence

> Wait, so what's the simplified version of this?  You think it's done going down?



3251y was our bottom; ($535); btce bottomed at $610.  

We are in a period of consolidation; there was no "dead cat" after 3251; we are short playing the "cat's tail" right now.    Right now you should be holding crypto long or short.

Short, I suggest LTC as there is a multiplier effect; LTC/BTC is following the BTC/USD up and downs. 

Long, I also suggest LTC as LTC/BTC long is very bullish.  


Short, get into LTC; asap,


Hold LTC long.

 If you are USD and cannot buy in next 15 minutes... wait until next buy signal in 5 +/- hours @ 3705; you will have missed this coming "short":



Else, for short gains:

In 3 hours:

sell LTC to USD @ BTCchina signal ~3840y 


2 hours later: 

buy LTC w/ USD @ BTCchina signal ~3705y


This short trade should yield 8 to 11%  



Best of luck.

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## presence

Let BTCChina btccny be your indicator: 

Best short gains in LTC/USD pair.

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## Dianne

> 3251y was our bottom; ($535); btce bottomed at $610.  
> 
> We are in a period of consolidation; there was no "dead cat" after 3251; we are short playing the "cat's tail" right now.    Right now you should be holding crypto long or short.
> 
> Short, I suggest LTC as there is a multiplier effect; LTC/BTC is following the BTC/USD up and downs. 
> 
> Long, I also suggest LTC as LTC/BTC long is very bullish.  
> 
> 
> ...


OMG, I didn't understand any of that.    Best of luck everyone though, that did )

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## presence

we have a dagger below support in china.  

watch your charts.

good luck

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## dannno

> we have a dagger below support in china.  
> 
> watch your charts.
> 
> good luck


Does that mean if it falls below the support it may fall by quite a bit?

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## dustinn

> Does that mean if it falls below the support it may fall by quite a bit?


Below support and it will fall yes

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## dustinn

> 3251y was our bottom; ($535); btce bottomed at $610.  
> 
> We are in a period of consolidation; there was no "dead cat" after 3251; we are short playing the "cat's tail" right now.    Right now you should be holding crypto long or short.
> 
> Short, I suggest LTC as there is a multiplier effect; LTC/BTC is following the BTC/USD up and downs. 
> 
> Long, I also suggest LTC as LTC/BTC long is very bullish.  
> 
> 
> ...


Thank you SO much for this information, I owe you.

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## presence

*Thread: Bitcoin back to up $864 Before Christmas*

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## newbitech

the attack on 650 gox is on tonight. 

If we fall significantly below 650 on gox, it will be lights out on BTC before Christmas.  Same level 600 for Stamp.  CHina is already well into its post mortem.  nasty nasty nasty, doom and gloom coming.  

I am looking to soak up the sub 200 BTC again.  I now think we'll see sub 200 before we see super 1000  beyond 50/50 at this point.  The vibe is quickly coming to an end, an it's time for some seriousness to the hype.

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## PaulConventionWV

Wow.  Should've waited.

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## RonPaulIsGreat

Alright, you can buy now, I'm declaring the fall over. buy 450-500. HOLDDDD HOLLLD< BUYYYYYYY.... Now, leave house, and don't look back. LOL>

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## Neil Desmond

Yay volatility!  Where would I be without it?

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## Dianne

Projections on how low it will go?

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## ronpaulfollower999

I'd wait two months.

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## ronpaulfollower999

Damn, Stamp went under $400? Hoping this is just a dead cat bounce.

I want cheap coins!

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## Neil Desmond

> Projections on how low it will go?


Here's some interesting things I notice based on Mt. Gox historical chart data:

Before May, 2011 it hovers around the $1 / btc area.
Between May, 2011 and early June, 2011 it ramps up.
June 8, 2011 peaks @ around $31 - $32 / btc.
Between late June, 2011 and January, 2013 hovers around the $10 / btc area.
Between January, 2013 and April, 2013, it ramps up.
April 10, 2013 peaks @ around $260 - $270 /btc.
Between late April, 2013 and late October, 2013, it hovers around the $100 / btc area.
In November, 2013, it ramps up.
Around the beginning of December, 2013, it peaks at around $1,200 - $1,300 /btc area.

Now, let's reorganize this information into 3 categories, what I call the "hovers", the peaks, and the time spans between peaks.  Ramp-ups go with peaks, so we can omit those.

Here are the "hovers":

Before May, 2011 it hovers around the $1 / btc area.
Between late June, 2011 and January, 2013 hovers around the $10 / btc area.
Between late April, 2013 and late October, 2013, it hovers around the $100 / btc area.

Notice what these hovers are doing?  First it was $1/btc, then $10/btc, then $100/btc.  Each time it increased by a factor of 10.  Would that make $1,000/btc its present hover?

Now let's look at the peaks:

June 8, 2011 peaks @ around $31 - $32 / btc.
April 10, 2013 peaks @ around $260 - $270 /btc.
Around the beginning of December, 2013, it peaks at around $1,200 - $1,300 /btc area.

The first peak went just over 3 times past the hover value that followed it.  In other words, it peaked at around $31 - $32 / btc before settling on its $10/btc hover.  
The second peak went to just over 2.5 times past the hover value that followed it, $260 - $270 / btc, before settling on its $100/btc hover.
The third peak only went a small fraction past $1,000/btc, at around the $1,200 - $1,300 / btc area.

Does this mean the next peak might be barely over the $10k / btc area?

Last thing is the stretches of time between each multiples of a factor of 10 steps from $1/btc.  In other words, the distances in time between each peak when they hovered around $1/btc, $10/btc, $100/btc, and what it's probably hovering at now, which would be $1,000/btc.

The time between the first peak and second is around 22 months.
The time between the second peak and the third peak is around 7  or 7.5 months.

Notice how it reduced to about 1/3 of the time span?  If we reduce the time span for 7.5 months to 1/3, that's 2.5 months.  Does this mean that the next peak will occur around the middle of February 2014?

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## Dianne

Can an American buy and sell on BTC China www.btc123.com by transferring btc to a wallet there?    I can't help but notice their prices are so much lower than the U. S. Exchanges, like GOX.

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## dannno

> Can an American buy and sell on BTC China www.btc123.com by transferring btc to a wallet there?    I can't help but notice their prices are so much lower than the U. S. Exchanges, like GOX.


Why would you want to transfer BTC to the Chinese exchange to sell at a lower price? You would want to buy there, which would require getting some type of currency, likely Yuan, but possibly dollars, into the account so you could buy at the lower price. Taking that cheap BTC to Gox and selling high would be called arbitraging, and so the fact that there is such a big price spread likely means it is kinda expensive getting currency into the exchange so you can buy cheap, transfer to gox, sell high (for arbitraging), then get the cash out, convert back into the currency that is accepted at btc123.com, get the currency back in, rinse and repeat. Of course you are probably just wanting to do a one time buy, but the concept is the same.

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## Dianne

> Why would you want to transfer BTC to the Chinese exchange to sell at a lower price? You would want to buy there, which would require getting some type of currency, likely Yuan, but possibly dollars, into the account so you could buy at the lower price. Taking that cheap BTC to Gox and selling high would be called arbitraging, and so the fact that there is such a big price spread likely means it is kinda expensive getting currency into the exchange so you can buy cheap, transfer to gox, sell high (for arbitraging), then get the cash out, convert back into the currency that is accepted at btc123.com, get the currency back in, rinse and repeat. Of course you are probably just wanting to do a one time buy, but the concept is the same.


Great advice, thank you !!!    I'm not sure how long the btc dumps are going to be taking place; so was thinking of a way to buy "quickly", specifically litecoin.   I can see ltc below 10 in China, but still showing up as 14. on btc-e ( .

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