# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Get out of Gold now, price will plummet to $1450/oz: Dennis Gartman

## YumYum

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/get-out-of-gold-now-price-will-plummet-to-$1450oz-dennis-gartman-44362-3-1.html

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## Perry

If you're reading a stock chart and the chart says the stock is about to explode it does not take into account the fact that the CEO is about to takes $100 million from the company and secretly put it into his personal bank account.

Likewise technicals don't take such variables as inflation into account.

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## Bern

Trader chatter that I read says gold has significant support at 1550.  We'll see.

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## hazek

Haven't you learned your lesson yet yumyum?

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## raystone

Physical or paper ?

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## fletcher

I've never seen YumYum say anything besides get out of gold.

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## YumYum

> I've never seen YumYum say anything besides get out of gold.


I have done some research. Deposit your gold out of this country immediately. Asia is the best bet. We are going to have a economical martial law by the first quarter of next year.

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## Seraphim

Well, I think a MARKET WIDE crash is coming soon. PHYSICAL gold is the last thing you sell. 

I'm still thinking the next (possibly current?) market crash will yield low-mid 20's$ silver and something like 1400-1500$ gold. Does that mean I am selling? HELL NO.What I am doing is paying off my last bit of debt so I can get CASH to BUY silver once it's discounted price is near it's bottom.

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## Seraphim

That is NOT selling gold. That is a wiser choice than selling it....




> I have done some research. Deposit your gold out of this country immediately. Asia is the best bet. We are going to have a economical martial law by the first quarter of next year.

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## danda

dollar cost average.   If you buy a little physical every week, and I mean EVERY week, then you will benefit from the dips and just be happy to see it going lower.

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## schiffheadbaby

Both sides please calm down.

YUMYUM is a noted gold bear, I will pray for him that he has missed out on the rally.

Does anyone expect sub 1trillion dollar deficits in next few years?  

The fundamentals are still there, YUMYUM is really promoting propaganda.  Shorterm there probably will be more weakness, medium-longer view still intact

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## unknown

I think its very possible that the price of gold may drop.  

Its a game they play in the run up to every election in which they like the incumbent.  

Between now and the 2012 Presidential election, I think we'll see a strengthening of the dollar, resulting in cheaper commodity prices.  I think we'll see a stable stock market and lower unemployment.

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## Jordan

> I think its very possible that the price of gold may drop.  
> 
> Its a game they play in the run up to every election in which they like the incumbent.  
> 
> Between now and the 2012 Presidential election, I think we'll see a strengthening of the dollar, resulting in cheaper commodity prices.  I think we'll see a stable stock market and lower unemployment.


The second ranking reserve currency is in the toilet.  The US Dollar is clearly back in the "awesome assets to have" class until the Euro gets its stuff together.  Some 26% of the world's reserves are held in Euros.

Canadian Dollar has been unrealistically overbought as a "carry" currency along with the AUD.  PPP between US and Canada doesn't make sense.  Canada isn't a commodity country, either.  Nor is it a growth territory.  Australia is a super-levered bet to emerging markets.  It was only the risk-on love that kept the dollar down, now the markets are correcting.  It's perfectly reasonable to see the US dollar rise here.

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## schiffheadbaby

> I think its very possible that the price of gold may drop.  
> 
> Its a game they play in the run up to every election in which they like the incumbent.  
> 
> Between now and the 2012 Presidential election, I think we'll see a strengthening of the dollar, resulting in cheaper commodity prices.  I think we'll see a stable stock market and lower unemployment.


It will be next to impossible to have a stronger dollar, stable equities and lower commodities for 12 months straight.

Jordan, tell me you don't buy that.

Do you think dollar index can hit 90 without major problems for ES?  I'm inclined to say no

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## Jordan

The S&P500 is dollar-denominated (I'm assuming by ES you're referring to the e-minis?) so I do absolutely buy that.

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## schiffheadbaby

There has been such a strong correlation between Dollar weakness and equities I don't think that could be sustainable.  

In the event the dollar continues to rally there should be much more downside for US stocks.

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## Jordan

I don't think it'll rally too much further, as it's already getting closer and closer to "fair-value."

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## Steven Douglas

Funny how few people see this as a Dollar Bubble, but instead look at it as a deflating gold or silver bubble. 

Hoo boy, make hay while the sun shines. Sell those dollars, baby! Especially on the rise, and as long as anybody is willing to buy them.  Every sinking ship tilts upward as it founders before it finally sinks. Sell out while feces is still selling.

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## Jordan

> Funny how few people see this as a Dollar Bubble, but instead look at it as a deflating gold or silver bubble. 
> 
> Hoo boy, make hay while the sun shines. Sell those dollars, baby! Especially on the rise, and as long as anybody is willing to buy them.  Every sinking ship tilts upward as it founders before it finally sinks. Sell out while feces is still selling.


You don't actually expect a majority of people find the above argument particularly convincing, do you?

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## Danke

> I have done some research. Deposit your gold out of this country immediately. Asia is the best bet. We are going to have a economical martial law by the first quarter of next year.


Oh, OK.  Say, how's your aunt doing?

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## Steven Douglas

> You don't actually expect a majority of people find the above argument particularly convincing, do you?


Some will, some won't, but does it really matter either way?  

There is no committee here. Nothing to vote on, and even if there was, being convinced of anything will not change the fundamentals or even much of the dynamics, whatever they are - even if I described them incorrectly.

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## YumYum

> Oh, OK.  Say, how's your aunt doing?


She is nasty, Danke. She has yeast. But look at gold! Ouch!!!

http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

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## dannno

> I've never seen YumYum say anything besides get out of gold.


YumYum was saying get out of gold back when it was at $800.. REALLY not a poster to be looking towards for investment advice.

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## dannno

*Gold threads by YumYum:*


*Gold will plummet: the dollar will strengthen.*  
_10-25-2009_
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ill-strengthen.

*What causes a ceiling in gold?* 
_12-14-2009_
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eiling-in-gold

*What will be gold's bottom?* 
_12-17-2009_
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-gold-s-bottom

*Gold slides 2.7% as losses intensify* 
_01-04-2011_
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...sses-intensify

*Get out of Gold now, price will plummet to $1450/oz: Dennis Gartman*  
_12-14-2011_
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...Dennis-Gartman

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## squarepusher

> *Gold threads by YumYum:*
> 
> 
> *Gold will plummet: the dollar will strengthen.*  
> _10-25-2009_
> http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ill-strengthen.
> 
> *What causes a ceiling in gold?* 
> _12-14-2009_
> ...


lol, but i must say it is nice to see YumYum and Jordan in the same thread.

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## specsaregood

> I have done some research. Deposit your gold out of this country immediately. Asia is the best bet. We are going to have a economical martial law by the first quarter of next year.


So you are predicting martial law of sorts and your suggestion is to deposit your gold halfway around the world we don't have access to it?   I'll stick to burying it underneath my shed -- _if I hadn't already lost it all in a tragic boating accident that is._

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## Deft9

It did plummet today.  I'm going down with the ship.  We'll see where it's at in 10 years.

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## Dr.3D

If I had any gold, I sure wouldn't be selling it.   I would be keeping it for the long haul.  Why pay shipping both ways for when you decide to buy it all back again?

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## jclay2

I am desperately hoping that this pm sell off continues. Who wouldn't want to accumulate more metal on the cheap. For those who believe in this bull market, a massive sell off is a blessing. You would think more people would have respect for physically accumulating the metal, especially in light of recent events at mf global.

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## Seraphim

+ rep.

Fundamentals are very much intact. It's irrational to want higher prices if you feel like your stash isn't large enough.

Bring on the fire sale.

I've said this for a while; in the event of a market wide, deflationary crash, silver may go sub 20$ an ounce. Bring it on. I'm 23 years old - I don't have enough for my retirement, therefore, bring on the crash...so that my WAGE increases in value (even if only temporarily).

The last deflationary crash saw silver go to about 8$ an ounce. To be honest, in another crash, anything over 12$ silver is highly bullish from a secular bull point of view.





> I am desperately hoping that this pm sell off continues. Who wouldn't want to accumulate more metal on the cheap. For those who believe in this bull market, a massive sell off is a blessing. You would think more people would have respect for physically accumulating the metal, especially in light of recent events at mf global.

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## Steven Douglas

> I've said this for a while; in the event of a market wide, deflationary crash, silver may go sub 20$ an ounce.


Hey, we can dream, can't we?

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## devil21

Both YumYum _and_ Jordan makes appearances on the same day?  Two noted PM bears on RPF that only show up when metals take a temporary downswing.  Should have been predictable I guess.  Yawn.

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## Seraphim

Sure can.

In the real world, 16$ silver will mean the rich and anyone with half a brain will be renting moving trucks to purchase.




> Hey, we can dream, can't we?

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## Jordan

> lol, but i must say it is nice to see YumYum and Jordan in the same thread.


I don't have any particular fault with gold, just that I don't believe anyone can seriously value it.  It supposedly has an intrinsic value of greater than $0, but that's about as far as anyone can really go to throw a pricetag on it.

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## Steven Douglas

> I don't have any particular fault with gold, just that I don't believe anyone can seriously value it.  It supposedly has an intrinsic value of greater than $0, but that's about as far as anyone can really go to throw a pricetag on it.


It's not so much that gold has intrinsic value in itself - it's that some people erroneously conclude that because a given value is based internally, on belief alone, without acknowledging other fundamentals, that it might as well be thin air; a box that Tommy Boy takes a dump in and marks "GUARANTEED", because he's got time.  _And then they run with it_, seeing all the wonderful possibilities of a fantasy value substitution in exchange for what they incorrectly saw as an equivalent fantasy value.  However, because value fundamentals, like _natural scarcity_, can be tested, once it is learned that the fantasy value is based on something cheaper than dirt, paper, or air, and just as widely available, the value * poof * ultimately vanishes.  It is at that point, after real wealth is wiped out by an easily counterfeited fantasy holding vehicle, that everyone clings to something with sounder fundamentals - the number one being gold.  

Gold's value is not just in its beauty or useful physical properties. It has intrinsic fundamentals that make it an ideal medium of exchange that minimizes the need for trust.  It's value as an ideal vehicle (as perceived on an individual level - not some theoretical fantasy model) is _highly explicable_.  And rational.

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## cubical

> It's not so much that gold has intrinsic value in itself - it's that some people erroneously conclude that because a given value is based internally, on belief alone, without acknowledging other fundamentals, that it might as well be thin air; a box that Tommy Boy takes a dump in and marks "GUARANTEED", because he's got time.  _And then they run with it_, seeing all the wonderful possibilities of a fantasy value substitution in exchange for what they incorrectly saw as an equivalent fantasy value.  However, because value fundamentals, like _natural scarcity_, can be tested, once it is learned that the fantasy value is based on something cheaper than dirt, paper, or air, and just as widely available, the value * poof * ultimately vanishes.  It is at that point, after real wealth is wiped out by an easily counterfeited fantasy holding vehicle, that everyone clings to something with sounder fundamentals - the number one being gold.  
> 
> Gold's value is not just in its beauty or useful physical properties. It has intrinsic fundamentals that make it an ideal medium of exchange that minimizes the need for trust.  It's value as an ideal vehicle (as perceived on an individual level - not some theoretical fantasy model) is _highly explicable_.  And rational.


or more easily put... Gold has been money for 4000 years and that didn't change in the last 40.

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## Seraphim

To add to what the two just above me said;

Gold is one of the most utile metals around. It just happens to be so rare/in demand that other inferior metaas get used because they are so much more cost effective. From a purely utilitarian perspective, gold is extremely useful for industry.




> I don't have any particular fault with gold, just that I don't believe anyone can seriously value it.  It supposedly has an intrinsic value of greater than $0, but that's about as far as anyone can really go to throw a pricetag on it.

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## schiffheadbaby

let's not argue,

what does confuse me is the fact that Jordan and Yumyum say they are Ron Paul supporters but they are bearish on metals relative to equities.  This to me would come from a perspective that the economy is experiencing organic growth and that things are relatively fine.  If they believe as such why aren't they on Obama 2012's team?

We need all the supporters we can get, but are they serious about RP?  If so why own Equities over metals in this environment?

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## QE Is Theft

> I've said this for a while; in the event of a market wide, deflationary crash, silver may go sub 20$ an ounce


This isn't out of the realm of possibility at all.

Fed FX line swaps have dried up.

Liquidity is ultra-tight. 

The LIBOR-OIS spread reflects this.

Banks are rightfully very nervous at the moment.

As a result, they are liquidating winners. 

Anyone who has a large silver position would be wise to buy some SLV put options or ZSL ultra-short silver to protect against a futher 30%+ decline.

Regarding Gold, technically speaking, it _could_ go down to $1200.

And I say bring it on as well....I will "Buy! Buy! Buy!" like Jim Cramer says.

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## John F Kennedy III

Get out of paper gold. Keep your physical gold.

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## cubical

If silver hit $20 I would literally be throwing my entire paycheck at it every week(which is half of mine and my wife's income).

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## AdamT

Yep, if the metals crash buy up all you can ASAP. You will not be sorry in the years to come.

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## jason43

Longer term, with the Fed printing pressed trapped on print with no way to raise interest rates, there is no way to lose saving in precious metals. If there was a major dip in prices, I'll be happy, it'll just be a buying opportunity. 

Is there any reason that metals could drop against the dollar long term? The more dollars, the less they are worth compared to gold. You may not get richer, but you will preserve your wealth.

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## Jordan

> let's not argue,
> 
> what does confuse me is the fact that Jordan and Yumyum say they are Ron Paul supporters but they are bearish on metals relative to equities.  This to me would come from a perspective that the economy is experiencing organic growth and that things are relatively fine.  If they believe as such why aren't they on Obama 2012's team?
> 
> We need all the supporters we can get, but are they serious about RP?  If so why own Equities over metals in this environment?


LOL.  You have to own gold to be a Ron Paul supporter?

Equities are way better than metals because they're easier to value.

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## Steven Douglas

> Equities are way better than metals because they're easier to value.


Yeah, I love the smell of Equities in the morning. Smells like victory!

When shopping for equities, be sure to get US-minted AAA assets. Those are the best kind.  Greek banks bought boat-loads of them that they were able to leverage, and from what I understand, that's what's kept them happy. 

For a great equity, you might want to try BofA. It got the most AIG bailout money of the big depositor banks, has some $53.7 trillion in derivatives in the FDIC-insured portion (the Merrill Lynch securities division holds $22 trillion in addition.) The bank has $5 trillion of credit derivatives. Plus, because of its rating downgrades, the cost of insuring BofA against a possible default continues to rise in the credit derivatives market - a pattern that American International group (AIG) once followed. 

Downsides ignored, BofA pays absolutely nothing in taxes, is able to lend out money it doesn't have at a profit, and right now it's selling at a rock bottom value of $5.27 a share.  Nowhere to go but up - I'm giving you pearls here, Icarus, the sky's the limit!

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## QE Is Theft

> For a great equity, you might want to try BofA. It got the most AIG bailout money of the big depositor banks, has some $53.7 trillion in derivatives in the FDIC-insured portion (the Merrill Lynch securities division holds $22 trillion in addition.) The bank has $5 trillion of credit derivatives.


LOL...Bank Of America Countrywide....AAA all the way.

Y'know, when you look at the way all the financial institutions in the world are daisy chained together, with trillions, and trillions of complex derivatives, 30-1 leverage, reypothecation out the wazoo...

You really have to wonder how in the world Ben Bernanke, and the other central bankers, have managed to keep the ship afloat....

It's mindboggling, to me...

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## YumYum

> let's not argue,
> 
> what does confuse me is the fact that Jordan and Yumyum say they are Ron Paul supporters but they are bearish on metals relative to equities.  This to me would come from a perspective that the economy is experiencing organic growth and that things are relatively fine.  If they believe as such why aren't they on Obama 2012's team?
> 
> We need all the supporters we can get, but are they serious about RP?  If so why own Equities over metals in this environment?


I had to chuckle at this post. Like Jordan said, you don't have to be a gold bug to love Ron Paul. But think about this: what if the only people in the world who hold onto gold are Ron Paul supporters? What then, would be the value of gold? Also, think about this: what if the only people in the world who hold on to food are Ron Paul supporters? What then, would be the value of food? What would you rather have in this scenario? Something to think about.

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## Bman

> Haven't you learned your lesson yet yumyum?


Seriously.  If history serves us well, meaning YumYum posting to get out of gold, now must be the time to buy.

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## row333au

"blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel buy"... "Anacott in play." (script in Wall Street movie, the scene with media manipulation of creating dumping of stocks, so Gordon Gekko buys them at dirt cheap price along with insider tradings while ripping (stealing) off the sellers for a BS plummeting created by media).... yumyum is the china company for food that partly owns yum brands who owns KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bel, etch......... Highest demand right now is Gold and Silver market buying...

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## YumYum

> Seriously.  If history serves us well, meaning YumYum posting to get out of gold, now must be the time to buy.


No, you don't understand business cycles, nor do you understand what causes "bubbles". I claimed back in 2009 that Central Banks were buying up gold, and I was called an idiot. Now, the truth is, I was right and they were wrong. We have no idea how much gold there is, nor who has what. We live in a fiat world where gold is not money, and if tomorrow, Obama declares that hoarding gold is a violation punishable by death, what will that do to the value of gold? Please don't tell me that you will get your Kentucky rifle and fight to the death. You will do whatever you are told.

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## Kluge

> LOL.  You have to own gold to be a Ron Paul supporter?
> 
> Equities are way better than metals because they're easier to value.


Well... Ron Paul supporters will probably be the only ones trading physical gold were the S to HTF. You try giving a disc of gold to any other man seeking guns in exchange for chickens, and he'll give you a pretty stern "wtf can I do with that - gtfo." stare, I suspect.

Lol -- you know, I remember the videos about people trying to give gold away to kids, and none of them wanted it. Libertarians, though, they know the "true" value of physical gold.... yessirreee! They'll be trading it all day long once the SHTF, and TV news reporters will come ask folks "Why have you traded away your house for gold?" and the fellow will respond "Gold always increases in value once the SHTF."

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## YumYum

> I've never seen YumYum say anything besides get out of gold.


I never said "Get out of gold", I have always said "Be careful". You see, Ron Paul supporters are called "Paulbots" because people view us like "Moonies". They claim this is a "cult". We all think alike, and act alike. Scary. I am not ready for "1984", just yet.

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## YumYum

> Well... Ron Paul supporters will probably be the only ones trading physical gold were the S to HTF. You try giving a disc of gold to any other man seeking guns in exchange for chickens, and he'll give you a pretty stern "wtf can I do with that - gtfo." stare, I suspect.
> 
> Lol -- you know, I remember the videos about people trying to give gold away to kids, and none of them wanted it. Libertarians, though, they know the "true" value of physical gold.... yessirreee! They'll be trading it all day long once the SHTF, and TV news reporters will come ask folks "Why have you traded away your house for gold?" and the fellow will respond "Gold always increases in value once the SHTF."


I understand your point, but had you lived in the 1930's with all your gold, you would have been sent to prison. One thing I have learned about people throughout history: same faces, just different names.

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## Steven Douglas

> I understand your point, but had you lived in the 1930's with all your gold, you would have been sent to prison. One thing I have learned about people throughout history: same faces, just different names.


You actually have that one wrong.  Many did not turn in their gold, even though most complied voluntarily. Nobody ever went to prison over this.  There were no house to house searches, no forced seizures of any kind, and only one prosecution - even that was overturned by Judge John M. Woolsey on the grounds that the order was signed by the President, and not the Secretary of the Treasury, as required by law.  

That does not mean it cannot happen, but history is not a guide in this particular case.

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## YumYum

> You actually have that one wrong.  Many did not turn in their gold, even though most complied voluntarily. Nobody ever went to prison over this.  There were no house to house searches, no forced seizures of any kind, and only one prosecution - even that was overturned by Judge John M. Woolsey on the grounds that the order was signed by the President, and not the Secretary of the Treasury, as required by law.  
> 
> That does not mean it cannot happen, but history is not a guide in this particular case.


There was a man that was found in violation of hoarding gold. You trust people, don't you?

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## Steven Douglas

> There was a man that was found in violation of hoarding gold.


Yes, and he was exonerated, as I said. 




> You trust people, don't you?


Many. But that's not what you meant, is it?  You meant "government people"? No. I trust the rule of law when it is structured in a way that acknowledges an inherent, very healthy, very patriotic distrust of ALL government. I trust the Constitution, not our CORRUPTED government that refuses to follow it. I also trust the Bill of Rights that we would NEVER have gotten were it not for complete distrust of our currency debauching government, and the terrible anarchy that ensued and threatened the Republic in its infancy.

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## Steven Douglas

Double post.

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## YumYum

> Yes, and he was exonerated, as I said. 
> 
> 
> 
> Many. But that's not what you meant, is it?  You meant "government people"? No. I trust the rule of law when it is structured in a way that acknowledges an inherent, very healthy, very patriotic distrust of ALL government. I trust the Constitution, not our CORRUPTED government that refuses to follow it. I also trust the Bill of Rights that we would NEVER have gotten were it not for complete distrust of our currency debauching government, and the terrible anarchy that ensued and threatened the Republic in its infancy.


Ok. Given that you love the Constitution, and our country, and Martha Washington and all her kids, you will pay pack the national debt...correct? I mean, if you believe in the Constitution, we are responsible for paying off our debts. Right?

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## Steven Douglas

> Ok. Given that you love the Constitution, and our country, and Martha Washington and all her kids, you will pay pack the national debt...correct? I mean, if you believe in the Constitution, we are responsible for paying off our debts. Right?


Of course. Show me the Constitutionally created debts, and I would be delighted to foot the bill for them.

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## Bern

Apmex has sold off (or pulled from available inventory) 35% of their 100 ozt silver bars over the last ~40 hours.  It appears as if people are buying this dip like crazy.

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## Revolution9

> or more easily put... Gold has been money for 4000 years and that didn't change in the last 40.


More practically put gold has been a very useful metal since a long frakkin' time. It is incorruptible, ductile and can be beaten to a sheet 20 atoms thick, is the best natural conductive metal, in monoatomic form it has very special properties and is used for jewelry because symbolically it is of the Sun.

Rev9

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## xFiFtyOnE

According to what I've been reading, YumYum is somewhat correct.  Expect a *TEMPORARY* drop in PM prices.  Key word being temporary.  The prices are going to drop before blasting off into space.  If you can hold on to your PM's I'd suggest doing so.

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## Bossobass

YUM!,

Good to see you, my friend. 

Thanks for the wake up call. I just bought a pile of silver. If it drops a bit more, I couldn't care less, but I really don't see the $ going much higher than it is right now (the cause of the drop in PMs against the $).

Of course, everyone with a brain knows that the USD hasn't increased in value at all. It's only increased against the basket of other worthless paper.

Every estimate of the drop in value of the $ vs its value in 1913, measured against the value in USD of 1 Oz of silver in 1913 tells me silver is worth $65 today against the USD. That can only continue in silvers favor, "market volatility" notwithstanding.

We'll see.

Bosso

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## YumYum

> YUM!,
> 
> Good to see you, my friend. 
> 
> Thanks for the wake up call. I just bought a pile of silver. If it drops a bit more, I couldn't care less, but I really don't see the $ going much higher than it is right now (the cause of the drop in PMs against the $).
> 
> Of course, everyone with a brain knows that the USD hasn't increased in value at all. It's only increased against the basket of other worthless paper.
> 
> Every estimate of the drop in value of the $ vs its value in 1913, measured against the value in USD of 1 Oz of silver in 1913 tells me silver is worth $65 today against the USD. That can only continue in silvers favor, "market volatility" notwithstanding.
> ...


Hello Bosso!

I think it is pretty much agreed by all of us that gold and silver is one way to protect our wealth. But, since none of us have been through an economic collapse before, we can only speculate what will happen when all Hell breaks lose. So, the only thing we have to go by is history, and the fact that our government made hoarding gold illegal in the 1930's, it can/will happen again. Also, MF Global was a reputable company, and if we can't trust them, who can we trust? After the holidays are over, Celente is predicting economic Martial Law in the first quarter of next year. That could mean making gold hoarding illegal; wage and price controls, even regulating how much cash we can take out of the bank on a daily basis. Silver makes the most sense, since it is still legal tender. By the way, I have always wanted to ask you (since you play bass) who your favorite bass player is? I now play bass and I love Paul McCartney for his melodic tones, and Bootsy Collins of Parliament for his funk.

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## fj45lvr

haha.....yumyum    the guy who has a track record of being wrong.     You should try to predict global warming...

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## -C-

> It will be next to impossible to have a stronger dollar, stable equities and lower commodities for 12 months straight.
> 
> Jordan, tell me you don't buy that.
> 
> Do you think dollar index can hit 90 without major problems for ES?  I'm inclined to say no


You could see the euro totally swap places with the dollar before its all over with, point for point. Massive transfer of wealth there, some would suggest it is impossible, but look how fast the Euro overtook the dollar....it could swing right back.

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## QE Is Theft

There was a time when we had a strong dollar and high equity prices.

Regarding forecasts, I anticipate the dollar to continue gaining strength for some time.

It wouldn't surprise me if we retest the highs from 2010 and even late 2008.

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## cubical

> Hello Bosso!
> 
> I think it is pretty much agreed by all of us that gold and silver is one way to protect our wealth. But, since none of us have been through an economic collapse before, we can only speculate what will happen when all Hell breaks lose. So, the only thing we have to go by is history, and the fact that our government made hoarding gold illegal in the 1930's, it can/will happen again. Also, MF Global was a reputable company, and if we can't trust them, who can we trust? After the holidays are over, Celente is predicting economic Martial Law in the first quarter of next year. That could mean making gold hoarding illegal; wage and price controls, even regulating how much cash we can take out of the bank on a daily basis. Silver makes the most sense, since it is still legal tender. By the way, I have always wanted to ask you (since you play bass) who your favorite bass player is? I now play bass and I love Paul McCartney for his melodic tones, and Bootsy Collins of Parliament for his funk.


While it is true the government can do anything, the circumstances now and back in the 30s are much different. The biggest being the fact that the dollar was tied to gold in the 30s. He needed to do it to devalue. It is much easier to devalue these days.

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## archangel689

> http://www.commodityonline.com/news/get-out-of-gold-now-price-will-plummet-to-$1450oz-dennis-gartman-44362-3-1.html


Gold is a hedge against government. Until government fixes the economic problems, gold will continue to rise. End of story. buy the dips.

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## AmericasLastHope

*Zerohedge: Gold Takes Out 200DMA...The Other Way*

"Gold again proves it is not the safe haven many had hoped for, breaking the 200-day moving average, the first time since 2009 and signaling that prices may drop to US$1400/ounce." So begins a post by a "market strategist" from Roubini Global Economics as of less than a week ago. *Well, since as the chart below shows gold just took out the 200-DMA, this time in the opposite direction upside, having proven the recent drop was nothing but a buying opportunity as was suggested by the non-Ph.D. community, we assume that using the author's logic, gold has proven that it is in fact a safe haven, and that since it is not going to $1400 it can only go to infinity....* Or is that us taking liberties with our lack of an economics Ph.D. a little too far?




Gold just took out the 200DMA (green dotted line).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-t...athe-other-way

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## Steven Douglas

I keep looking at the title of this thread and shaking my head. 

Can you imagine telling someone in the year 2000, when gold was at $282/oz, that there would come a day, eleven short years from now, where there would be real fears on the parts of some that gold might *"plummet to $1450/oz"*?

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## RickyJ

We will see soon. I kind of doubt it though. And 1450 is not really a crash, just a dip, nothing to be concerned about for the long run in this Gold bull market.

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## Kluge

> I keep looking at the title of this thread and shaking my head. 
> 
> Can you imagine telling someone in the year 2000, when gold was at $282/oz, that there would come a day, eleven short years from now, where there would be real fears on the parts of some that gold might *"plummet to $1450/oz"*?


That was way back before gold was priced out of most industrial use, though. Imagine showing evidence to a manufacturer 10 years ago that gold would skyrocket to $1600/oz, or another that copper would go from <$1/lb to ~$4/lb, and I bet they'd both be scrambling to find a more reasonably-priced metal... like aluminum!

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## Steven Douglas

> That was way back before gold was priced out of most industrial use, though. Imagine showing evidence to a manufacturer 10 years ago that gold would skyrocket to $1600/oz, or another that copper would go from <$1/lb to ~$4/lb, and I bet they'd both be scrambling to find a more reasonably-priced metal... like aluminum!


No, I would bet my life that the scramble would have been a much needed run on physical, with hoarding and acceleration of prices the likes of which the world has never seen before - including the absolute destruction of all paper derivatives.  Then we would have seen some similar maneuvering to other metals. 

Why the industrial users of silver don't do this now will always be a puzzle to me. Unless, like me, they really are taking in as much as they can, on the hope that the artificial devaluation games continue just a bit longer.

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## Bern

Next leg of the Elliott Wave starting?

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## QE Is Theft

> Next leg of the Elliott Wave starting?


I'm not a believer in Elliot Wave theory.

I have a better, more simple, trend-based system.

To find a good entry/exit, I primarily watch 3 things:

1)5emaX10sma on daily timeframe -- when I see this cross, it's a heads up that the current uptrend/downtrend _might_ be shifting directions.

2)8emaX21ema on daily time with heikin ashi candles -- when this crosses, it's almost a sure bet *in the mid-term*, that the trend has come to an end. 

3)6X10X12 sma on monthly timeframe -- to confirm *a long term* trend change...this crossover combo almost never fails.

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## Bern

FYI, I was referring to this:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/...-by-alf-field/

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## Steven Douglas

> FYI, I was referring to this:
> 
> http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/...-by-alf-field/


Highly recommended read, BTW. +rep

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