# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

## bobbyw24

The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

Gold's real return: aero
Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

Gold's real return: aero
Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

Gold's real return: aero
Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx

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## MRoCkEd



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## Bruno

People said that at $25, $30, and $40 also.  Time will tell.

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## Bruno

Dupe post

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## Bern

> ... Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? ...


In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.

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## matt0611

> In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.


Lol yup.

Same thing could be said for anything:

"Why would oil, a commodity with no yield -- accrete value?"

Some people are so ignorant of economics and prices, its so sad.

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## Gideon

> In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.


I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness. 

Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.

I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.

Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.

The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!

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## Jordan

> In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.


Exactly.  The author is accepting the view that this time isn't different. Most silver investors are buying silver because they think this time is different.  Of course, "this time isn't different" crowd has a better track record seeing as 99.9999% of the time this time isn't different.  However, maybe the silver bugs are right this time in that it is different, and they'll reap the rewards if they're right.  So too will the silver shorts.  This is like having a priest and atheist argue; each would argue a reality that they've created within their own belief.  At the end of the day, neither will understand the other, since an assumption (acceptance of their own truth) was made at the most basic level of their thought process.

Also, I've started to come to the understanding that silver price could go up forever, simply because there are so many people who see it as the ultimate asset class.  Ever seen Kitco's forum? LOL.  It would be interesting to do a study on libertarians and metal holdings.  If libertarians can send a politician many millions of dollars, one has to wonder how much gold and silver these same libertarians can buy.  I'm almost convinced that a small minority of investors who are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow can control the buy-side of the equation, and push the price higher and higher and higher.  There aren't many sellers in this group of investors, and should they continue to accumulate, the price of gold and silver could go up forever...err, at least until they start selling.

On a side note, anyone remember that JP Morgan story?  The one where JP Morgan was allowing investors to open trading accounts denominated in gold?  Has there been any recent news about it?  

Not sure how popular the program actually was, but I have a feeling that JPM is making a mint writing calls on the holdings.  Sure, you're looking at like $3 per month per ounce, or ~2% per year, but even at that rate cash flow is cash flow.  They have to be loving the idea that gold is negative carry, seeing as they pay 0% interest on the gold and generate yield with it.

Gold and silver, when owned in more "financialized" instruments, is actually positive carry, but the yields are pretty low.  However, when money is cheap, those who can borrow at low rates can buy gold and silver--or any commodity, for that matter--and generate a positive yield greater than their carry costs.

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## Gaddafi Duck

What point is he trying to make? In the very long run, gold maintains its purchasing power--that is what he established and everyone knows that. But I myself will sell gold when the market is much higher from here. My holding period on gold is only several years, as is most people's. If you bought gold in the early 1970's and still have it today, you are doing pretty good. But if you sold the gold in the 1980's, invested in the stock market instead and eventually dot coms in the 1990's then sold, then repurchased gold in 2000, then you'd do much better than just outright ownership of gold from the 1970's until now.

The same is true if you bought stocks in the 1980's but held them until today..You made a big bull run, but now you've been stuck in a bearish slump for a decade when you could've amplified all those gains in 1998-2000 by plowing them into undervalued assets like commodities.

In 5-8 years, the same will be true only in reverse..probably by then, bonds will be much more lucrative than owning expensive precious metals. It'd be prudent to switch out asset classes, but again, if you plan on owning gold from now until you die, you'll weather some bad storms, but you'll make it through a couple or so bull markets.

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## Carson

I've been thinking this is very little to do with the value of silver or gold but more a thing to do with the value of the dollar.



Click to embiggen

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## Dr.3D

> *I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness.* 
> 
> Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.
> 
> I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.
> 
> Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.
> 
> The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!


I agree, he seems to be some kind of a FED shill.

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## Michael P

The author plays that Caps game on that site and his accuracy at picking stocks is 50%. I think of monkeys and dart boards... just sayin

http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFBullnBear/activity.aspx

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## libertybrewcity

WOWOWOWOWOW! Warning, don't listen to anything ANYONE has to say from that site EVER. When I was about 16 I was really into pharmaceutical companies and I posted a comment on the site about one particular company. I said this stock will "sky rocket to the moon one their drug is FDA approved!". Haha, they posted my comment in an article claiming that it was actually some sort of legitimate investment advice, and the stock shot up in the next week from about .75 to over 2.50.

The drug was rejected by the FDA and the stock has since dropped to .34. CTIC check it out.

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## KCIndy

If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity!  Bring it on!!

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## Travlyr

^^^ No doubt. Drop baby drop!

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## Michael P

No chance. It didn't even drop that much during the 08 crash & we won't see the dollar strengthen like that again. Flight to safety is now Gold.

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## YumYum

I took it in the teeth on this forum because I had the courage to say: "Gold will plummet, the dollar will strengthen" 

I only made my claim because the Gefiltes at the top have a proven track record. What makes you think they will change their game?

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## low preference guy

> I took it in the teeth on this forum because I had the courage to say: "Gold will plummet, the dollar will strengthen" 
> 
> I only made my claim because the Gefiltes at the top have a proven track record. What makes you think they will change their game?


The key here is that governments and special interests cannot, no matter how hard they try, print gold. So in the long run, the value of gold will go up substantially.

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## kah13176

Come on guys.  Look at the dollar index.  Dollar is down 20% in the past year.  PM's are up WAY more than 20%.  You're speculating on future inflation, which IS likely, but it's speculation nonetheless.  As of yet, nothing justifies PM's being so high; it's not their true value in today's dollars.

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## Dr.3D

> Come on guys.  Look at the dollar index.  Dollar is down 20% in the past year.  PM's are up WAY more than 20%.  You're speculating on future inflation, which IS likely, but it's speculation nonetheless.  As of yet, nothing justifies PM's being so high; it's not their true value in today's dollars.


Since when has the true value of the metals been known?   There has been so much manipulation in the prices for so many decades, no one knows the exact true price of the metals.

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## kah13176

> Since when has the true value of the metals been known?   There has been so much manipulation in the prices for so many decades, no one knows the exact true price of the metals.


Good point, but then you could say that about any commodity.  Perhaps wheat prices are still equilibrating after a negative supply shock caused by Australian floods, for example.  Markets are complex and semi-chaotic, you never know.

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## Travlyr

> As of yet, nothing justifies PM's being so high; it's not their true value in today's dollars.


How about Utah's move toward honest money? Also, many people around the world are beginning to understand that "Inflation is the increase in the money supply", and fiat inflation is theft. Silver's return to use as a monetary instrument is an important development.

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## Dr.3D

> Good point, but then you could say that about any commodity.  Perhaps wheat prices are still equilibrating after a negative supply shock caused by Australian floods, for example.  Markets are complex and semi-chaotic, you never know.


Not necessarily.   Wheat doesn't keep around like silver and gold.   I'm pretty sure the Federal Reserve isn't worried about people checking the price of wheat to see how the dollar is doing.

There were vast stockpiles of silver for a long time, and then the government decided to liquidate those stockpiles and sold them into the market.    That constant selling of those stockpiled metals drove down the price for decades.    Couple that with the paper market, it is easy to see how the price of silver has been suppressed to make the dollar look better than it really is.

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## Indy Vidual

At some point, this statement, "*Silver Falls by 66%*", will be true; 
How long will it take? 1,2,5, or 10 more years?
The Bear market in Silver lasted over 20 years.What if the 66% drop happens (for example) *after* you sell your silver for $401/OZ?

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## youngbuck

I'm thinkin' that I'll sell my silver when it's no less than $100/oz.

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## Dr.3D

> I'm thinkin' that I'll sell my silver when it's no less than $100/oz.


I'll start thinking about selling when I can buy one ounce of gold with ten ounces of silver.   I'll just *start* thinking about it.

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## efiniti

Acknowledging that nothing drastic has changed in market fundamentals?  ~$45.  Believing this claim from a site called Fool.com from a guy named TMFBullnBear and selling your physical..  Priceless.

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## hugolp

> Exactly.  The author is accepting the view that this time isn't different. Most silver investors are buying silver because they think this time is different.  Of course, "this time isn't different" crowd has a better track record seeing as 99.9999% of the time this time isn't different.  However, maybe the silver bugs are right this time in that it is different, and they'll reap the rewards if they're right.  So too will the silver shorts.  This is like having a priest and atheist argue; each would argue a reality that they've created within their own belief.  At the end of the day, neither will understand the other, since an assumption (acceptance of their own truth) was made at the most basic level of their thought process.
> 
> Also, I've started to come to the understanding that silver price could go up forever, simply because there are so many people who see it as the ultimate asset class.  Ever seen Kitco's forum? LOL.  It would be interesting to do a study on libertarians and metal holdings.  If libertarians can send a politician many millions of dollars, one has to wonder how much gold and silver these same libertarians can buy.  I'm almost convinced that a small minority of investors who are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow can control the buy-side of the equation, and push the price higher and higher and higher.  There aren't many sellers in this group of investors, and should they continue to accumulate, the price of gold and silver could go up forever...err, at least until they start selling.
> 
> On a side note, anyone remember that JP Morgan story?  The one where JP Morgan was allowing investors to open trading accounts denominated in gold?  Has there been any recent news about it?  
> 
> Not sure how popular the program actually was, but I have a feeling that JPM is making a mint writing calls on the holdings.  Sure, you're looking at like $3 per month per ounce, or ~2% per year, but even at that rate cash flow is cash flow.  They have to be loving the idea that gold is negative carry, seeing as they pay 0% interest on the gold and generate yield with it.
> 
> Gold and silver, when owned in more "financialized" instruments, is actually positive carry, but the yields are pretty low.  However, when money is cheap, those who can borrow at low rates can buy gold and silver--or any commodity, for that matter--and generate a positive yield greater than their carry costs.


Why do you have to be such a radical?

Why are the only options you comtemplate "silver will go up forever" or "silver will collapse today or tomorrow"? We are in a moment of the cycle that is extremely bullish for commodities and this part of the cycle can go on for years, but it does not mean it will never end. What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?

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## scrosnoe

> If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity!  Bring it on!!


Exactly -- buying opportunity!

It is difficult to make money in the metals market if you are a short term trader or an emotional trader because the peaks are often sharp and the troughs can be extended.  But if you are consistent and buy on dips for the purpose of holding the asset you will be fine.  

I must remind everyone here though that our real treasure is not in earthly treasures that can be stolen, but in the priceless idea of liberty.  Where the spirit of the Lord is -- there is Liberty.  We have what seems to be a dwindling opportunity to bless the next generation with what our forefathers gave us.  

Let us be ever vigilant in our efforts to restore the respect for Life and Liberty in our land.  

Let us ask the Lord God who made us to have mercy on us and guide us in the battle at hand to restore the republic.  May we be a people that He would be pleased to bless once again.

Blessings,
Sandie

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## Liberty Rebellion

As an atheist, I agree with the above sentiment

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## juvanya

> ^^^ No doubt. Drop baby drop!


qft I still have some napkins to get rid of...

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## nobody's_hero

Aero = zero?

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## bobbyw24

> 


Posted as a warning to BUY since Motley Fool is screaming sell

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## vita3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2XDsMU8a0M&NR=1

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## misterx

I hope so, I shorted the crap out of it last week.

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## Jordan

> Why do you have to be such a radical?
> 
> Why are the only options you comtemplate "silver will go up forever" or "silver will collapse today or tomorrow"? We are in a moment of the cycle that is extremely bullish for commodities and this part of the cycle can go on for years, but it does not mean it will never end. What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?


I'm a radical?  Cool.

I actually don't see either view.  All I see in the online world is that silver will go up forever because it is manipulated, or silver will crash because it is in a bubble. These are other people's views, not mine.  I don't really care.  In fact, I'm waiting for the next crash in equities so I can buy up like there's no tomorrow.




> What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?


That seems to be a minority view in the metals market, mostly because it is well-reasoned...at least when compared to other views.

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## Godisnowhere

The fool is the person who believes the US dollar is getting strong. 100 Trillion USD liability, printing gone wild. 1.5 Trillion deficit and Obama and the Republicans are will to continue on (just wait till Obama care kicks in). China stating they want to dump 2 trillion of their 3 trillion US treasuries. Increased deficits without buyers and more QE and more printing. Now who besides the fool would believe the US dollars is getting stronger? In the short run markets go up and down a bit. Silver may flucuate some as well. But better on silver's increase is based on the US dollar weakening. Please explain this futher to us Chartman? Charts without facts = wrong charts.

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## Jay Tea

I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.

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## Seraphim

I don't think the funny money markets can last that long without QE3 - other than that I'd say a pretty sound analysis.





> I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.

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## Michael P

> I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.


I agree with you except 40 and 1350 could be a little low. June could be an explosive month for gold and silver. If silver gets through its all time highs there isn't a lot of resistance in June. I could see silver taking out 60 and gold 1650 in June. There could be a lot of money to be made but it's a real gamble because like you said once we get into July all bets are off.

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## Jay Tea

> I don't think the funny money markets can last that long without QE3 - other than that I'd say a pretty sound analysis.


Don't forget, the Fed will still be rolling payments from QE1 and QE2 into fresh purchases of Treasury bonds via QE-Lite. This is especially relevant when it comes to the $1.25 trillion (face value, of course) in mortgage assets purchased during QE1. Rollovers of previous Treasury purchases will only affect the flow, not the stock, of Bernanke's Treasury assets, but rollover of mortgage debt will be used to buy more of Uncle Sam's "AAA" bonds, providing a boost to both stock _and_ flow.

Even with that going on, however, I personally would guess that we'll get QE3 before 2011 is over. But a couple of factors could extend the "wait" into 2012. Bernanke's feet were held a bit closer to the fire for QE2, so he may want to achieve the psychological effect of storing his ammo until we're in a new calendar year. Ideally, he'd probably also like to see oil drop below $100/barrel (another important psychological barrier) before firing up the printing presses again. He could also try to outlast the rest of the world, and hold off until either China gets more aggressive in its fight against inflation, or Europe's debt crisis explodes once again and most of the EU falls back into recession. Either would choke off some demand for commodities, and the latter would provide a significant direct boost the dollar, allowing Ben to say, "See? There's obviously nothing to worry about. Time for another trillion."

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## Jay Tea

> I agree with you except 40 and 1350 could be a little low.


Not according to the past hour.

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## bobbyw24

Silver just dropped 12%

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## Travlyr

> Silver just dropped 12%


Only 54% more to go... wow...

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## ctiger2

BTFD!  There won't be any physical anywhere if this keeps up. What you're seeing here is "paper" silver crashing. Two diff markets. Paper silver will eventually goto ZERO.

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## Seraphim

Please listen to this man.




> BTFD!  There won't be any physical anywhere if this keeps up. What you're seeing here is "paper" silver crashing. Two diff markets. Paper silver will eventually goto ZERO.

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## bobbyw24

Inquiring minds are watching silver futures get smacked this Sunday evening. Here are a couple of charts to consider.



The monthly chart looks ominous. It seldom pays to chase spikes like that, regardless of fundamentals or perceived fundamentals.

*Where to From Here?*

I was not even going to comment on silver tonight because of my sale last Wednesday as noted in Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold.

What changed my mind was a post this evening by Zero Hedge: More On The Silver Dive: "Massive Sell Orders" Coupled With Bolivian Nationalization Halt Combine For Perfect Weak Hand Shakeout Storm

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-going-on.html

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## bobbyw24

(At $40-50/oz., it's better than all the alternatives!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, Feb 5th, 2011


In April, we had a record month in buying and selling silver and gold.  Business volume increased 57% over our prior month's record.

Many customers are walking in, and saying, "I need silver."  Not "I'd like to buy".  Not "I want".  But "I need." 

Most of our customers mention that they are aware of the recent government budget battle and near shutdown of the government.  People are aware that the government's budget is short by $1.6 trillion, which is $1600 billion dollars-- that they are printing, to meet the "need," and yet, the political parties were arguing over a mere $30 billion difference.  (And yet, investment demand for silver stands at a paltry 250 million oz., at $50/oz, which is a mere $12.5 billion.)  Our customers are aware that there is zero political will (neither among the politicians, nor among the population) to even remotely fight for something close to a balanced budget for nearly the next two years, until after the next election in the fall of 2012.  They say it would be one thing, if the budget fight was whether to cut $500 billion to $700 billion from the budget, but it was nothing like that.  They are aware that the current crop of politicians are so weak, and so ineffectual, even with the new tea party tax cutters in office, that inflation is guaranteed for the next two years or many more.  People are aware that the entitlement mentality in America is now so strong, and since so many people are "on the dole" from the government, that they will likely continue to vote for more government spending for decades to come.

I'm 41.  For the first time in my life, an older customer actually apologized to me.  He apologized as a representative of the older generation, to me, as a member of the younger generation, because America has been destroyed on their watch, and they know that they made our lives worse by stealing our freedoms, and by increasing our tax burden.  But he said he did not know what to do about it.  And I said that buying silver is far more than enough.  After all, if voting counts, and if writing letters counts a thousand times more than voting, then buying silver counts a thousand times more than writing letters!

More

http://silverstockreport.com/2011/wh...ilver-now.html

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## bobbyw24



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## jclay2

We have seen a fairly big retracement in silver. I am still bullish until I see a close that is $ 3-4 below the high. So far, every cliff drop has been repeatedly beaten back.

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## hugolp

> Don't forget, the Fed will still be rolling payments from QE1 and QE2 into fresh purchases of Treasury bonds via QE-Lite. This is especially relevant when it comes to the $1.25 trillion (face value, of course) in mortgage assets purchased during QE1. Rollovers of previous Treasury purchases will only affect the flow, not the stock, of Bernanke's Treasury assets, but rollover of mortgage debt will be used to buy more of Uncle Sam's "AAA" bonds, providing a boost to both stock _and_ flow.
> 
> Even with that going on, however, I personally would guess that we'll get QE3 before 2011 is over. But a couple of factors could extend the "wait" into 2012. Bernanke's feet were held a bit closer to the fire for QE2, so he may want to achieve the psychological effect of storing his ammo until we're in a new calendar year. Ideally, he'd probably also like to see oil drop below $100/barrel (another important psychological barrier) before firing up the printing presses again. He could also try to outlast the rest of the world, and hold off until either China gets more aggressive in its fight against inflation, or Europe's debt crisis explodes once again and most of the EU falls back into recession. Either would choke off some demand for commodities, and the latter would provide a significant direct boost the dollar, allowing Ben to say, "See? There's obviously nothing to worry about. Time for another trillion."


I am also in the camp that thinks that QE3 will be probably delayed until 2012.

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## bobbyw24

Pick some up

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## bobbyw24

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...02#post3246102

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## fatjohn

> As an atheist, I agree with the above sentiment


uh




>

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## bobbyw24



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## qh4dotcom

$41.44 now

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## ctiger2

_Some_ are thinking $27-$33 range.

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## bobbyw24



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## Seraphim

I have 33$ pegged as the LOWEST it will go.

I am inclined to think the brutal drop will be met with rebellious support. 

In USD, I think it will begin to hit A LOT of support at worst around 37$.

The long term fundemental bulls will stop the bleeding once they start seeing spot prices beginning with the number 3.




> _Some_ are thinking $27-$33 range.

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## AZKing

I'm kind of convinced they're trying to push it to mid 30s for the summer... I don't mind too much. Most of my silver is from the mid 20s and ~10 oz from 35-40.

It's a buying opportunity. And hopefully it really is and they're not just trying to shake out some people.

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## Michael P

I heard there was a big 15% off Silver sale going on...

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## bobbyw24

Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land. 

More:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and...ime-same-place

----------


## rp4prez

I like the trend... means I can buy more for my monthly purchase!

----------


## qh4dotcom

$39.62 now...silver has fallen $3 today

----------


## Jandrsn21

> In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.


Well said! Only fools here are the ones still holding on to dollars.

----------


## bobbyw24

> $39.62 now...silver has fallen $3 today


Excellent. Sell and take profits

----------


## Brown Sapper

Let it go down to $8/oz I'll start buying bricks

----------


## cubical

> Let it go down to $8/oz I'll start buying bricks


haha I wish.

Gold is still above 1500. This should show that if you are wanting to get into gold/silver, that you need to look at the charts. Silver might be a good buy here, but if it went down to 30 I wouldn't be shocked. It went from 20 to 50 in 7 months, back to 30 wouldn't be too strange. Gold on the other hand has slowly been moving higher and higher and now with the big sell off it is still above 1500, only 5% or so off highs. Whereas silver is 20% off highs.

We know the future value of these metals is much higher, so why not buy the one that isn't extended.

----------


## Icymudpuppy

The value of a commodity is based on mutual voluntary exchange...

HR I might think that I hold Taggart Transcontinental in my power.
DTYou know that, anyway.
HRI do. And I intend to make you pay for it.
DTI expect to. How much?
HRTwenty dollars extra per ton on the balance of the order delivered after today.
DTPretty steep, Hank. Is that the best price you can give me?
HRNo. But thats the one Im going to get. I could ask twice that and youd pay it.
DTYes, I would. And you could. But you wont.
HRWhy wont I?
DTBecause you need to have the Rio Norte Line built. Its your first showcase for Rearden Metal.
HR (chuckling)Thats right. I like to deal with somebody who has no illusions about getting favors.
DTDo you know what made me feel relieved, when you decided to take advantage of it?  That I was dealing, for once, with somebody who doesnt pretend to give favors.

----------


## qh4dotcom

$39.32 now

----------


## KevinR

Let it fall, then we can get rid of FRNs at a better rate

----------


## Brian4Liberty

So where's the bottom going to be?

IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz. Barring a total crash scenario, and looking at a typical draw-back, maybe $30 will be the bottom?

What do the technical gurus think?

----------


## Seraphim

The prior bottom was at 27$. 27 to 49 = 22$ increase. It will probably retract back about half of that (down to 38$ or so).

Technicals can only go so far however - the marketplace is so incredibly messed up right now that anything can happen - it could be a $#@! storm back to 30$ or we could see massive support push prices back up in a hurry.

I tend to think the latter is more likely. 

I am inclined to think in USD the price will soon start to level...I do think the 38$ area is a solid target as a bottom. 

36.50$ or so in CAD.

Once the new bottom is established, prices consolidate and prices start to move up again - look out, the next move up is going to be huge.

I would not be surprised to see **HOLDS BREATH** triple digit silver by the end of 2011. 70$ should be a breeze. This, of course, is dependent on relatively similar monetary policies and fiscal policies.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Went back in the thread for some predictions...




> _Some_ are thinking *$27-$33* range.





> I have *33$* pegged as the LOWEST it will go.
> 
> I am inclined to think the brutal drop will be met with rebellious support. 
> 
> In USD, I think it will begin to hit A LOT of support at worst around 37$.
> 
> The long term fundemental bulls will stop the bleeding once they start seeing spot prices beginning with the number 3.





> I'm kind of convinced they're trying to push it to *mid 30s* for the summer... I don't mind too much. Most of my silver is from the mid 20s and ~10 oz from 35-40.
> 
> It's a buying opportunity. And hopefully it really is and they're not just trying to shake out some people.





> So where's the bottom going to be?
> 
> IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz. Barring a total crash scenario, and looking at a typical draw-back, maybe *$30* will be the bottom?
> 
> What do the technical gurus think?

----------


## Seraphim

Also, once the support is established and prices start moving up again - woe is me if I start hearing SILVER IS IN A BUBBLE once prices hit 45$ again.

Silver won't be in a bubble - or even close to it...until you see the currency/debt issues resolved or even STABILIZED. 

Over the next decade, HEALTHY currencies such as the CAD and AUD will likely see 300$ silver as a "normal". I.e prices will go MUCH higher than that, and then correct from the ACTUAL bubble price.

Ladies and gents - the debt/currency bubble has gone parabolic - it WILL collapse and when it does the nominal funny money valuations on ALL commodities will go insane.

----------


## swissaustrian

> This, of course, is dependent on relatively similar monetary policies and fiscal policies.


Is´nt it frustrating that investing turned basicly into betting on decisions of central planners?
I would love to invest according to fundamentals and pick stocks. Now i have to put my main focus on what some corrupt freaks decide to be the "right" economic policy. I hate it, although i make some money from it. Morally it´s ashaming to me.

----------


## Seraphim

I hear ya.

I'd rather be invested in dividend paying companies and have our currencies be market oriented (which would mean my silver would be less of an investment and just MONEY) free from central planning printing presses.

Alas, that is not the case. Thus, I view precious metals, energy and real estate to be the best investments.






> Is´nt it frustrating that investing turned basicly into betting on decisions of central planners?
> I would love to invest according to fundamentals and pick stocks. Now i have to put my main focus on what some corrupt freaks decide to be the "right" economic policy. I hate it, although i make some money from it. Morally it´s ashaming to me.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> So where's the bottom going to be?
> 
> IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz.


By total crash, I mean if there is another stock market crash. Unfortunately that will also take metals down to a certain extent because people will need real money, and will be selling some of their winners to cover loses.

----------


## Bern

> So where's the bottom going to be? ...


Hard to predict anything when they keep changing the rules.  *Margins hiked today (again!) for the 4th time in the last 8 days - this time by another 17%!*  The COMEX must really be in deep doodoo.

----------


## Seraphim

20$ silver due to a MARKET WIDE crash would still represent a 150% increase in price from the last crash bottom - VERY BULLISH.




> By total crash, I mean if there is another stock market crash. Unfortunately that will also take metals down to a certain extent because people will need real money, and will be selling some of their winners to cover loses.

----------


## Scottj88

Okay not to sound smut, but there is a lot of uneducated talk going on here.  I recommend using tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com to learn about what is going on.



I would guess 36 at lowest, they are increasing margins effective tomorrow close and monday close.  However, mining stocks may be bottoming and ready for a takeoff.  Quarter 1 earnings reports are coming out and the results are stellar (record prices for metals = record earnings).  For reference, the price of silver now is what it was a little over 2 weeks ago.  The price of gold/silver now is higher than the avg price the miners will be showing record profits at...

Scott
http://thehardrightedge.com

Also, try:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

----------


## bobbyw24

Read this

http://livesilverprices.net/silver-prices-fall-20/

----------


## bobbyw24

$37.99 here we come!

----------


## swissaustrian

> $37.99 here we come!


It´s the same move since 4 days, like clockworks: Hongkong closes, silver takes a dive. When the Crimex opens at 8 am ET there will be a short rally. Then at about 8:30 the trend will turn until 12 am ET (London pm price fixing!), then again a short rallly and finally the next major downturn. We had this for 3 1/2 days now. The closing price for the day will be visible at about 3 pm ET:

----------


## bobbyw24

Uh oh. $37.54 and falling. Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs.

----------


## bobbyw24

The biggest slump for silver since 1983 may not be over as the Comex exchange in New York makes it 84 percent more expensive for speculators to trade the metal, triggering an exit by investors.

The minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $21,600 per contract after May 9, CME Group Ltd., Comexs owner, said yesterday. Thats up from $11,745 two weeks ago. Open interest in futures has tumbled about 15 percent since the exchange began raising margin requirements on April 25.

*Prices may drop another 12 percent to $34 an ounce by the end of next week*, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of six analysts. Silver has more than doubled in the past year as record-low U.S. borrowing costs and a slumping dollar prompted investors to buy precious metals as alternative assets. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...costs-84-.html

----------


## bobbyw24

** Silver set for biggest weekly slide since at least 1989

* iShares Silver Trust holdings drop, most since early 2008*


By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Silver prices were on track for their largest weekly fall in over 20 years on Thursday, as investors pulled their money out of the metal after its rise last week to 31-year highs.

A fourth rise in margin requirements for U.S. silver futures added to the pressure on the market, while global holdings of silver in exchange-traded funds staged their biggest one-day decline this year.

http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Silve...4d1e15649c8a64

----------


## swissaustrian

I´m not buying before monday because there will be another margin hike on 5-9. Maybe then we find a bottom. One thing is for sure: Volatile times ahead. Fasten your seatbelts! Hitorically may was a rather bad month for silver: http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html But it often marked the low for the year too.

----------


## swissaustrian

Gold is now below $ 1500!

----------


## fatjohn

> Uh oh. $37.54 and falling. Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs.


Silver was also going full retard when priced in real money gold. What concerns me now is that the last two days also gold is going down. Now it already retreated over 5% from it's all time high.

----------


## RonPaulGetsIt

silver is shaking off the weak bulls.  That is what a market does.  The dow crashed in 1987 and is barely discernable on a 20 year chart of the dow bull market.

----------


## Bern

> ... Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs. ...


The CME and brokerage margin hikes over the last week or so are unprecendented.  The COMEX must really be in deep $#@! for them to do this.  In any event, you can wait if you want to, but I would keep an eye on the inventory at whatever shop or dealer you prefer.  I went by my local coin shop yesterday and their inventory was so bare I was shocked.  While I was in the store, every customer who came in was looking to buy silver.  The physical market is very tight and I don't see that changing dramatically.

----------


## bobbyw24

The price action in silver since late January has been dramatic to say the least. The derivatives marketplace CME Group raising margin requirements has been seen by many as the reason for the 20 percent correction in prices since the precious metal hit a record over $49 an ounce on April 28th.

Regular readers will remember that the currency team at Bank of New York Mellon [BK  28.75    -0.19  (-0.66%)   ] have been drawing a number of comparisons between 2011 and 2008. The key comparison for Simon Derrick has been the commodities market which in 2008 acted as a lead indictor for stocks and the financial crisis in the autumn of that year.

One of the most significant signals to emerge in early 2008 was a marked reversal in the price of a number of basic foodstuffs well before oil prices peaked in July 2008, Derrick wrote in a research note on Thursday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42910646

----------


## bobbyw24

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me last night that also ended up as a GATA release shortly thereafter, so I'm just going to steal Chris Powell's most excellent preamble...and then post the link.

There's been some controversy over Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott's sale of some shares of his company's spectacularly successful physical silver fund, PSLV. In an interview yesterday with Eric King of King World News, Sprott remarked that the sale was small, that the proceeds were entirely reinvested in silver-related assets, that he continues to expect silver's price to return to a 16-1 ratio to gold's price, and that he now owns more silver than ever.

Here you have it from the man himself...and the link to this must listen audio interview is 

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...ic_Sprott.html

----------


## V-rod

Are most of you just watching Silver? I'm seeing steep drops on just about every commodity, and just about every stock. Silver is falling only a few percentage points lower than other metals, and that isn't bad considering the huge run up it had.

----------


## bobbyw24

By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD

With silver dropping roughly 19% in the last three days, a correction is clearly under way. Lets take a quick look at how far it might drop.

Ive updated the corrections chart, which shows all major pullbacks in silver since our bull market began in 2001. The data measure any clearly visible drop in price greater than 10%, regardless of time length. As youll see, some drops occurred over short periods of time, while others were prolonged.



http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/eli...ts-coming-soon

----------


## osan

> The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.
> 
> Gold's real return: aero
> Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).
> 
> There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):
> 
> 
> http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx


Guess you had a little editing failure there.

Anyhow, both sides argue somewhat convincingly.  We are in unprecedented times, so who knows how this will all shake out?  The graph is interesting, but given the remarkable position in which we now stand, I am not quite sure that it can be trusted as a predictor.  On the one hand, we do have every indication of a bubble, given what is beginning to appear as an asymptotic rise in price.  On the other hand, we have the churning out of dizzying volumes of money by the fed, which should be triggering significant inflation.  Inflation, while currently high, is not as high as I would have expected.  What, exactly, is going on with that?

Several really weird, counterintuitive things are happening.  Which way the shoe will fall... who can tell?  I cannot.

----------


## osan

> The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!


Raising the question: what will replace it?  The answer to that is the one over which we should be on pins and needles.  When a new currency comes, "they" are not going to be kind.  We are going to be collectively sheared until we bleed.  Maybe even literally.

Get foods and medicines stocked.  Don't go crazy, but have a year's worth anyway.  Worst that happens: you eventually go through the stock as you would otherwise consume and the world doesn't come to an end.

----------


## bobbyw24

*Dollar Falls to 18-Month Low Against Euro*

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/...5/04/id/395197

----------


## Jordan

For the record, margin hikes affect short-interest too.

----------


## bobbyw24

$35.95. Hold on

----------


## Bern

> For the record, margin hikes affect short-interest too.


Apparently not so much (nice when the Fed gives you a blank checkbook to use).  Open interest is rising.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Okay not to sound smut, ...


Too late.

----------


## Jordan

> Apparently not so much (nice when the Fed gives you a blank checkbook to use).  Open interest is rising.




Silver producers are silver shorts in the futures market.  It wouldn't surprise me to see rising open interest as miners look to lock some of their production in at current levels.

----------


## bobbyw24

(Silver prices are in an anti-bubble!)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, May 5th, 2011   Grass Valley, CA

For more of my commentary and links, follow me on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/jason.hommel


Silver dipped below $36/oz. this morning, down about 8% from yesterday, and down about 27% from the high last week of about $49.50/ per troy ounce.  (A Troy oz. is about 10% heavier than a the more common international avoirdupois ounce.)

Some people are saying "this is like 1980 all over again" and that silver will now crash.  Nothing could be further than the truth.

The truth is that the amount of money they have printed up since 1980 is ten times higher, so if you adjust for inflation, the peak price from 1980 should be more like $500/oz. in today's dollars.

The next key difference is that in 1980, interest rates, the amount paid on bonds, rose to over 20% per year.  Today, interest rates are close to zero.  Interest rates make holding bonds more attractive.

http://silverstockreport.com/2011/dip.html

----------


## bobbyw24

Keep on falling baby!

----------


## Seraphim

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag0030lnb.html

So far the low is 32.50$ and that saw a serious jump up almost right away.

Today gold went down 10$ from USD strength and down 1$ from supply/demand.

Silver? Up almost a dollar on supply/demand and about 25 cents given back from USD strength.

This is looking more like the trend prior to all the margin raises.

If margins aren't raised for a few weeks, silver will see a huge rebound back up. If that is the case my 33$ prediction was pretty spot on.

We will see.




> I have 33$ pegged as the LOWEST it will go.
> 
> I am inclined to think the brutal drop will be met with rebellious support. 
> 
> In USD, I think it will begin to hit A LOT of support at worst around 37$.
> 
> The long term fundemental bulls will stop the bleeding once they start seeing spot prices beginning with the number 3.

----------


## Bruno

Inflation hit a two and a half year high today as well.

----------


## vita3

Don't know what the number is every second..  but I love having silver in hand.

----------


## swissaustrian

I went long with options today, but hedged myself against downside risk:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...26#post3271426

----------


## Gaddafi Duck

> http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag0030lnb.html
> 
> So far the low is 32.50$ and that saw a serious jump up almost right away.
> 
> Today gold went down 10$ from USD strength and down 1$ from supply/demand.
> 
> Silver? Up almost a dollar on supply/demand and about 25 cents given back from USD strength.
> 
> This is looking more like the trend prior to all the margin raises.
> ...


I don't know when you've made that "prediction," but when silver was $47 a couple weeks ago, you said silver could drop to 40-42, but maybe even to $35. I remember you also saying you wouldn't be surprised if silver keeps going higher.

So now you've made another prediction that it could go as low as $33. Congratulations, after spouting off seven different answers, you were finally correct! 

The only range in silver prices I have been able to get from you has been anywhere in the neighborhood of $33-50+. Whatta range!

I wouldn't break your arm patting yourself on the back..you can't determine any asset has "support" at any level given the amount of leverage people are playing with. I'm sure oil had a lot of support levels suggested by analysts when oil was $147/barrel on July 11, 2008. Then, a couple months later, oil dropped to $33/barrel having no problem breaking through "key support levels".

It's all speculation. Silver has shot up dramatically over the past year. If it was $20 not too long ago, it's not all that unquestionable to return to similar levels. Support levels mean nothing when investors hit margin calls and are forced to liquidate positions.

But I mean hey, you were right on with silver being in a $33-$50+ price range over a two week time horizon. Apart from the earth ending and/or the largest silver mine ever discovered and thus put into immediate production, you had an accurate range for less than half a month's time.

----------


## Seraphim

Read the timeline on the forums and match it up to reality. The thread topic was to pick the bottom price that would occur during the correction. All I did was answer the OP's question based on the information I had in real time. 

I'm glad you took time to write such a lenghthy response with very little substance.

At least I contribute to the flow of information and reason on the boards to help people who are genuine in their interest. I also have a track record over the last year of calling short and intermediate moves on precious metals VERY accurately.

I'm not patting myself on the back. I'm adding to the conversation.

You're a douche. I'll give you that.




> I don't know when you've made that "prediction," but when silver was $47 a couple weeks ago, you said silver could drop to 40-42, but maybe even to $35. I remember you also saying you wouldn't be surprised if silver keeps going higher.
> 
> So now you've made another prediction that it could go as low as $33. Congratulations, after spouting off seven different answers, you were finally correct! 
> 
> The only range in silver prices I have been able to get from you has been anywhere in the neighborhood of $33-50+. Whatta range!
> 
> I wouldn't break your arm patting yourself on the back..you can't determine any asset has "support" at any level given the amount of leverage people are playing with. I'm sure oil had a lot of support levels suggested by analysts when oil was $147/barrel on July 11, 2008. Then, a couple months later, oil dropped to $33/barrel having no problem breaking through "key support levels".
> 
> It's all speculation. Silver has shot up dramatically over the past year. If it was $20 not too long ago, it's not all that unquestionable to return to similar levels. Support levels mean nothing when investors hit margin calls and are forced to liquidate positions.
> ...

----------


## Dr.3D

Somehow, I see a few more margin hikes in the future.  If that happens, I suppose it could drop even farther.

----------


## Travlyr

Silver Eagles are still at $42 from APMEX. Hardly a crash.
Paper silver WILL eventually go to $0

----------


## Gaddafi Duck

> Read the timeline on the forums and match it up to reality. The thread topic was to pick the bottom price that would occur during the correction. All I did was answer the OP's question based on the information I had in real time. 
> 
> I'm glad you took time to write such a lenghthy response with very little substance.
> 
> At least I contribute to the flow of information and reason on the boards to help people who are genuine in their interest. I also have a track record over the last year of calling short and intermediate moves on precious metals VERY accurately.
> 
> I'm not patting myself on the back. I'm adding to the conversation.
> 
> You're a douche. I'll give you that.


lol..a legend in your own mind.

----------


## Seraphim

Don't let your fingers slip on those straws.




> lol..a legend in your own mind.

----------


## Gaddafi Duck

> Don't let your fingers slip on those straws.


Oh, no not at all. You've clearly demonstrated, with your track record, that you have immaculate short term projections on the price of silver. So much so your skills far surpass what billionaires like Jim Rogers or Warren Buffett are capable of. Not even Peter Schiff, even self-admittedly, can match what you have appeared to master.

Day trading/making short term projections isn't an art--it's gambling. All asset prices move in irrational directions on a daily basis--there is no fundamental reason for the varying in price of silver from minute to minute, or day to day. 

Quit making yourself out to something you clearly aren't and nobody is. The very premise of Austrian Economics is the concept that no one person can hold the information of the masses at any given moment in time. It's why Central Banking fails--because no one person or group can understand or comprehend the information that goes into the market interest rates. 

But clearly, you have demonstrated you know something about silver prices that no one, not even David Morgan, Peter Schiff, yah know..the people who actually have followed financial markets for years and actually have money, do. 

Enjoy your random walks with the futures market and the numerous pricing points we should keep an eye out for. Every two dollar change in the silver price is a "watch point" according from your "projections". Of course if silver doesn't reverse on your pricing point, you round to the nearest projected integer.

----------


## bobbyw24

With the gold price just shy of $1,500 and silver around the $35 level, Eric King of King World News has just interviewed Robin Griffiths of Cazenove, one of the top investment strategists in the world with 44 years experience. When asked if this time around silver will eclipse the 38 fold up-move which took place in the 70s Griffiths replied, Yes, I think getting to $50 was a slam dunk certainty, you test the old all-time high.  We now have a consolidation for lets call it two months and I think then we are going to go on up because the paper monies are still being printed.

He said: Ive got it (silver) as a ten bagger from current levels. You dont want to be wobbled out here because of a few champagne bubbles. You want to be able to stay with and add to your long-term holdings.  Bulls (bull markets) are very successful at wobbling people out at the wrong time.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...50-gold-12000/

----------


## UK4Paul

I've been watching "this silver thing" for a while now, and have spent the last couple of weeks reading tons of bullish and bearish articles and opinions, and here are my thoughts so far...

*Buying silver as a LONG TERM store of value makes sense*. If you're looking for a "long term store of value", or if you're worried about the collapse of the dollar, then investing in physical silver makes perfect sense, but then it doesn't matter too much what the price of silver is on a day to day basis. In fact, you'd prefer prices to go LOWER, so you can "fill your boots".*However, the dollar system doesn't seem on the verge of collapsing just yet*. Let's face it, the US Government has proven that it is capable of kicking the can down the road pretty well. Based on the growth of the national debt, it seems much more likely that the REAL crisis point is 5-10 years away, when the INTEREST on the ever-increasing debt starts to get too much to handle.*In the meantime, the illusion of relative normality will continue*. So there won't necessarily be a mad rush by the masses into silver (yet). However, because the silver market is fairly small, maybe it doesn't need a "mad rush", but just enough people to come in and push prices up.*It costs $5 - $15 to extract an ounce of silver*. Different mines have different costs, but let's go with $15 (probably too high, but let's run with it). Clearly if price drops below $15, it becomes unprofitable to mine. (OK, I know miners can hedge, but sooner or later they need prices to be over $15.) On the other hand, if price goes to, say $100 for any reasonable length of time... it becomes massively profitable to extract, probably leading to massive expansion in exploration and mining, which would increase supply, forcing price back down again, until an equilibrium is reached between supply and demand.*I'm not convinced by the "silver should be [$100-]$400!" arguments* based on inflation-adjusted prices. By that argument, a radio should today cost thousands of dollars... but it doesn't, because it's cheaper to make each unit than, say, 40 years ago. Similarly, it's $15 (max) to extract an ounce of silver, in today's dollars. The only factors that are left are SUPPLY, DEMAND and SENTIMENT.*On SUPPLY...* in a TRUE silver shortage, price would go up quite a lot I'm sure, but at some point, mining will expand to take advantage of the premium price, bringing price lower again. Supply from mining has been increasing steadily since 2002.*On DEMAND...* the main demand for silver is for industrial application, which will probably increase over time, as the world becomes more industrialized. However, recessions probably dent demand, as was the case in 2009. Coins and metal demand will probably increase because of increased fears about the economy, hyperinflation etc.*On SENTIMENT...* this is really the speculative element, the constant mental battle between the "silver should be at $400" meme, and the "silver will crash 66%" meme, among many others... all of which are just IDEAS... sentiments. *Silver is ultimately worth whatever somebody else will pay for it*. A Van Gogh painting is worth millions because somebody will pay millions for it. If nobody on the planet rated Van Gogh, his paintings would be valued near zero.Looking at the past 20 years, the price of silver hovered around the $5 mark during the 1990's, and then past the $10 mark in 2006, fluctuated wildly around the $15 mark 2007-2009, and then shot past the $20 mark around August 2010. In other words, there's a lot of DOWNSIDE with this metal (not that I'm saying it would go down to $5 again).
I just wanted to put these out as "talking points" and "thinking points". I do think that the MAJOR reason gold and silver have exploded these past couple of years is because they are seen as SAFE HAVENS in a world of financial crises, money printing and exploding debt that can't be paid off.

And let's face it... nothing has changed in that regard, so I suspect the bull market in gold and silver will continue. (What else could serve as such a good safe haven?)

However, I think it's a LOT more complicated than saying, "Silver should REALLY be at $XYZ" based on prices 30-40 years ago. Prices don't work like that. On the other hand, silver MIGHT go to that price... but perhaps by that time, we'd be using a different currency anyway... so the DOLLAR price of silver would become irrelevant 

I suppose this post sounds a bit bearish. To be honest, I don't know... and at the moment, I don't own any silver. If you're buying silver as a "long term store of value", great. However, some of what I've read in some silver articles online does have a tinge of Ponzi about it, i.e. if everyone piles in (and you can persuade your grandmother to invest), then prices can only ever go up, up and UP... because look!... the price should really be $xyz (oh, and you'll be bankrupting JP Morgan in the process  )

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## llepard

This entire bull market is not about silver going up.   It is about the dollar going to its intrinsic value:  Zero.    Based upon current trends and commitments we are too far gone.  The dollar will be worthless, the only issue is when.  See:  Weimar Germany 1923.  An ounce of silver was worth billions of marks.

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## outspoken

On a side note, I purchased silver via a wire transaction through apmex the other day and it got deposited in their JP MORGAN account.  It seemed more than a little ironic given all the talk about this bank in particular manipulating the paper silver.

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## bobbyw24

> On a side note, I purchased silver via a wire transaction through apmex the other day and it got deposited in their JP MORGAN account.  It seemed more than a little ironic given all the talk about this bank in particular manipulating the paper silver.


*
APMEX: In bed with the Govt? 

 Last summer APMEX changed their bank to JP Morgan Chase and yesterday I received a letter from APMEX stating they're moving into the Federal Reserve building in OK. Does this smell funny to anyone else?*

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-with-the-Govt

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## Freedom 4 all

> I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness. 
> 
> Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.
> 
> I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.
> 
> Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.
> 
> The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!


Exactly It's like betting on horses. For the sake of argument, there are two horses in the race. One is of so-so breeding and overall rather slower than average with an inconsistent history, the other is extremely sick with ever increasing numbers of parasites and malignant tumors and will in all likelihood collapse and die before the race is over. Despite the faults with the first horse, he is still the obvious choice given who he is competing against.

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## UK4Paul

> This entire bull market is not about silver going up.   It is about the dollar going to its intrinsic value:  Zero.    Based upon current trends and commitments we are too far gone.  The dollar will be worthless, the only issue is when.  See:  Weimar Germany 1923.  An ounce of silver was worth billions of marks.


OK, then at 1 oz = $35, we're not quite at Weimar 1923 yet.

I just finished listening to an audio version of When Money Dies, all about the Weimar republic. I don't think we're anywhere near CLOSE to that situation just now, although I appreciate things can change.

I know a lot of people envision a collapse of the dollar, but is it possible "they" (the powers that be) could engineer a different scenario? For example, one of the biggest problems facing the US in the near future is the growing debt mountain, and the growing interest payments on this.

To deal with this, they COULD engineer a decade of 1970's style moderately "high" inflation... say 10%-15% a year... which would push up the nominal tax receipts received by government, while reducing the overall interest burden. Sure, this would probably mean high interest rates, and perhaps cripple the economy...

...but it may make the debt problem less of a problem for them... and I can see them doing this rather than them allowing the dollar to collapse.

I personally see this as more plausible than hyperinflation.

Still, I don't know for sure... which is why I can see it makes SENSE to invest in a store of value like sliver and gold.

If they merely use 1970's style inflation... then you're holding a store of value against a dollar that is decreasing in value.

If they get hyperinflation... then you're holding an even better store of value!

I guess it's win / win for holding silver and gold.

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## bobbyw24

Slide in silver prices could be short-lived - Dillon Gage

World demand for silver in coins, industrial uses and jewelry remains strong and support is seen at the $32 an ounce level suggesting the recent drop in prices could be a brief hiatus.
Posted:  Friday , 13 May 2011

ADDISON, TX - - 

Silver's drop could be only temporary after prices retreated from a 31-year high reached in late April as traders watched crude oil values decline. Prior to that, silver was a sizzling hot commodity favored by small investors and money managers, and Dillon Gage experts say not to write it off now.

Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage Metals, the Dallas-based, precious-metals trading firm, said, "This year, silver had its biggest run in the shortest period of time in recent memory. Profit-taking corrections are to be expected when markets rally."

http://rp12.us/aIUiF

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## cubical

> OK, then at 1 oz = $35, we're not quite at Weimar 1923 yet.
> 
> I just finished listening to an audio version of When Money Dies, all about the Weimar republic. I don't think we're anywhere near CLOSE to that situation just now, although I appreciate things can change.
> 
> I know a lot of people envision a collapse of the dollar, but is it possible "they" (the powers that be) could engineer a different scenario? For example, one of the biggest problems facing the US in the near future is the growing debt mountain, and the growing interest payments on this.
> 
> To deal with this, they COULD engineer a decade of 1970's style moderately "high" inflation... say 10%-15% a year... which would push up the nominal tax receipts received by government, while reducing the overall interest burden. Sure, this would probably mean high interest rates, and perhaps cripple the economy...
> 
> ...but it may make the debt problem less of a problem for them... and I can see them doing this rather than them allowing the dollar to collapse.
> ...


How would they create this inflation? In a world where our monetary policy is already under scrutiny, if the fed went into a QE3, QE4 to get such high inflation numbers, then dollars from foreign holders would flood the US as people will want to get out of their depreciating asset. Yes, this would cause inflation and make debt cheaper, but it would cause inflation that is higher than 10%. It would also cause our bond market to implode because most foreign holdings are in treasuries. And assuming the government is still borrowing, they would not be able to roll over debt at such high rates, so the fed would step in and buy their debt causing even further inflation.

Remember back in the 70s, the US was filled with savers. Now we live off credit. The high rates that would eventually come from higher inflation would absolutely crush the economy. The fed is really in a no win situation unless the government started spending what it takes in immediately.

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## bobbyw24

The recent speculation-driven ups and downs in silver are par for the course with this manic metal. Also: Why gold and Microsoft get no respect.

Bill Fleckenstein

Sometimes financial markets can be mind-numbingly boring. The past week or so has not been one of those times.

The massacre in commodities a week ago yesterday (with more bloodletting this week), led by silver, has given us an example of how volatile the world can be, thanks to the insidious effects of money printing.

Regarding the action on May 5, the commodities and foreign exchange markets were total chaos. While many explanations were offered, it was really just an example of the flip side of frothy, momentum-based speculation.

http://money.msn.com/currency/silver...ckenstein.aspx

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## Blueskies

> To deal with this, they COULD engineer a decade of 1970's style moderately "high" inflation... say 10%-15% a year... which would push up the nominal tax receipts received by government, while reducing the overall interest burden. Sure, this would probably mean high interest rates, and perhaps cripple the economy...


This is exactly what "they" are trying to do.

Of course things could get out of hand.  The market is inherently unstable..

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## Anti Federalist

> This is exactly what "they" are trying to do.
> 
> Of course things could get out of hand.  The market is inherently unstable..


Engineering an economic condition that is only possible with fiat currency and defies any economic "law" you care to name.

Stagflation...decreasing demand and increasing prices.

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## vita3

"APMEX: In bed with the Govt? 

Last summer APMEX changed their bank to JP Morgan Chase and yesterday I received a letter from APMEX stating they're moving into the Federal Reserve building in OK. Does this smell funny to anyone else?"

good info thanks-

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## UK4Paul

Here's an interesting article... the guy uses a metric he calls rSilver (that is, silver price divided by its 200 day moving average), and has been able to predict the 30% or so price drops in silver in April 2004, May 2006, March 2008 and this time around. He says that whenever rSilver reaches 1.4x or higher, it's almost inevitable that a 30% or so correction occurs.

It also contains some interesting comments on the psychology of the silver market.
http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1305305477.php

Yes, silver may be destined to go to gazillions of dollars an ounce, as the dollar falls to zero... but I think it's useful to know what path it will take in the short to medium term.

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## swissaustrian

> Here's an interesting article... the guy uses a metric he calls rSilver (that is, silver price divided by its 200 day moving average), and has been able to predict the 30% or so price drops in silver in April 2004, May 2006, March 2008 and this time around. He says that whenever rSilver reaches 1.4x or higher, it's almost inevitable that a 30% or so correction occurs.
> 
> It also contains some interesting comments on the psychology of the silver market.
> http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1305305477.php
> 
> Yes, silver may be destined to go to gazillions of dollars an ounce, as the dollar falls to zero... but I think it's useful to know what path it will take in the short to medium term.


The rS indicator is indeed interesting. RSI ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relativ...ex#Calculation ) and MACD deliver similar results. 
The problem with rS is that might indicate that it is still overvalued although the price stopped declining. This comes from the construction of the rS: After a sharp decline that was way faster then the rise the Silverprice/200dma ratio will even fall when the price itself settles at a trading range (like it seems to do now) *IF* dma200 > actual price. Therefore i think that rS works better to identify overBOUGHT markets than overSOLD markets using. I would use RSI to identify oversold markets instead.

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## bobbyw24

Readers often inquire about problems that could arise with a gold and silver currency. I dont want to touch on all the issues, but I do want to discuss one in particular: the volatility of the two commodities. These past few weeks are a perfect example of a good reason for concern. Would precious metals currencies act in a similar way? If silver is $50 one week and $35 the next, the problem is obvious.

Though no one can know the future for certain, we can speculate on the outcome. First of all, if gold and silver became major currencies, I would no longer expect either to trade like a commodity. Instead, gold and silver would trade like any other currency.

The demand for gold would jump through the roof simply from the transactions demand. On top of that, gold and silver markets would receive huge influxes of hedgers. The market would no longer be filled with investors betting on inflation or the state of the world economy. Instead, companies hedging against uneven cash flows would dominate the market. This change in the major players would make the market far more stable and akin to currency trading.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/sil...ed-lack-supply

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## swissaustrian

With regards to silver, the analysis is incomplete: The largest part of silver demand is industrial, NOT investment/fiat currency hedging:

This connection to the business cycle obviously contributes to the volatility. 
On the supply side, i totally agree.
The backwardation still exists: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/meta...us/silver.html

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## Bern

> With regards to silver, the analysis is incomplete: The largest part of silver demand is industrial, NOT investment/fiat currency hedging...


... right now.  This could change dramatically once the world wakes up to re-monetized silver.  




> ...
> Hugo Salinas Price continues:
> 
> “I think our central bank has done something prudent.  It signals a difference of opinion with the Fed, and that is strange for our central bank that has always been in great cooperation with the US central bank.  Most of our reserves, which are at the highest level they have ever been, are in dollars.
> 
> Some have commented, ‘Well where is the gold?  Is it in a central bank receipt or is it in a central bank vault?’  It should be in the central bank vault.  Is it a paper certificate or is it actual physical gold and if so where is it?
> 
> I wrote a letter and told him (Mexican central bank Governor Carstens) that I thought it was a good move in view of the chaos presently prevailing in the United States fiscal situation.  I told him also that perhaps the central bank would take another look to monetize a silver ounce as a means of preserving popular savings from devaluation...That is what we are trying to do is to try to have the Mexican people have a lifeboat available in case of a severe crisis.  It looks like it will happen.”
> 
> ...


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...struction.html

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## JasonC

> OK, then at 1 oz = $35, we're not quite at Weimar 1923 yet.
> 
> To deal with this, they COULD engineer a decade of 1970's style moderately "high" inflation... say 10%-15% a year... which would push up the nominal tax receipts received by government, while reducing the overall interest burden. Sure, this would probably mean high interest rates, and perhaps cripple the economy...


How would the interest burden be reduced by raising the interest rates? If the rates were raised to 15%--I am not sure what the number would be--the interest payments on our debt alone would be extremely high. The principle on our debt would be reduced through inflation, but the interest rate hikes would mitigate much of that if not all. My understanding is that right now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place; between letting our economy tank by tightening monetary policy in order to reign in inflation or keeping the current monetary policy and hope we dont piss the world off too much, causing them to shun the dollar.

Edit: Ahhh, I misread your post. You mentioned a 15% inflation rate not interest.... Urrrdurrr

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## Jordan

> With regards to silver, the analysis is incomplete: The largest part of silver demand is industrial, NOT investment/fiat currency hedging:
> 
> This connection to the business cycle obviously contributes to the volatility. 
> On the supply side, i totally agree.
> The backwardation still exists: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/meta...us/silver.html


Economics is all about the margin.

The majority of silver demand does come from industrial demand, but at the margin all demand above 870 Moz is mostly investment demand.  I think we can safely say also that the "coins" portion of that chart is implied investment, since there aren't any silver coins minted at a face value greater than their bullion value. Also, note the dehedging demand in the early 2000s, which is markedly bullish speculation on future silver prices.

At any rate, we have to wonder why investors have greatly increased their demand for silver.  The bulk of it, I suggest, is from a change in interest-rate policy which makes negative-carry assets more enticing.

If you invest with the idea that you will not invest in assets that provide for opportunity cost losses of 1% or greater on the carry trade, silver is mostly untouchable through much of history.  Recently, however, with the cost of carry so low, and inflation relatively high compared to interest rates, silver is now on the radar for investors who once shied away from it's negative-carry qualities.

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## swissaustrian

> Economics is all about the margin.
> 
> The majority of silver demand does come from industrial demand, but at the margin all demand above 870 Moz is mostly investment demand.  I think we can safely say also that the "coins" portion of that chart is implied investment, since there aren't any silver coins minted at a face value greater than their bullion value. Also, note the dehedging demand in the early 2000s, which is markedly bullish speculation on future silver prices.
> 
> At any rate, we have to wonder why investors have greatly increased their demand for silver.  The bulk of it, I suggest, is from a change in interest-rate policy which makes negative-carry assets more enticing.
> 
> If you invest with the idea that you will not invest in assets that provide for opportunity cost losses of 1% or greater on the carry trade, silver is mostly untouchable through much of history.  Recently, however, with the cost of carry so low, and inflation relatively high compared to interest rates, silver is now on the radar for investors who once shied away from it's negative-carry qualities.


Totally agree. 
The point i wanted to make, is showing the difference between gold and silver demand.
See Gold here (sorry, could´nt find a better source quickly):

But the trend you pointed out in investment demand for gold is also very strong.

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## Deft9

There is no fixed measure of value.  Values are imputed by people and are constantly changing.  The guy made a good short-term call on silver.  Silver was getting over-heated; CME group hiked margin requirements on silver contracts and crashed the price.  But I'm still betting that over the next several years, more and more people will be choosing hard assets over paper currency.  I think it's easier to see where we're headed than to spot the bumps in the road along the way.

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## bobbyw24

By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD

I heard some disturbing reports about silver supply last month that I felt every investor should know. And while precious metals are currently in correction mode, the long-term concerns with supply wont disappear anytime soon. In attempt to get a handle on the bullion market, I spoke to Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin, who has contacts that run deep in the industry. What he sees everyday might just compel you to count how many ounces you own



Jeff Clark: Andy, tell us about your industry contacts and how you get the information you're privy to.

Andy Schectman: We source our product from three of the largest six primary U.S. mint distributors. Having 20 years of experience with these sources, as well as the dealers in the secondary market, we're as tied into the industry as anyone.



Jeff: You made some interesting comments to me about supply and premiums. Tell us what youre hearing and seeing in the bullion market right now.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editori...=DLC404ED0511C

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## swissaustrian

Anyone interested in Comex warehouse data can find it here (updated on a daily basis): 
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...y-reports.html (at the bottom of the page)
.xls: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ver_Stocks.xls
Registered still moving down.
Eiligible up a bit.

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## bobbyw24

With gold off the lows and silver trading higher, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Europacific Capital.  When asked about the pullback in gold Schiff remarked, I think its a buying opportunity...I do believe the US economy is slowing down, in fact I think its going to slow a lot more than people realize.  But for that reason I think that quantitive easing will not end over the summer, in fact I think the Fed is going to step it up.  QE3 could be even bigger than QE2 and thats very bullish for precious metals and very bearish for the dollar.

When asked about the Mexican central bank purchase of 100 tons of gold Schiff replied, What surprises me is that more central banks arent buying even more gold.  Central banks are loaded up with depreciating dollars, they need to buy gold instead.   The crazy thing is that Im even hearing talk about the US selling its gold to help fund its debts.  That would be the worst thing we could do.  The last thing we would want to sell is our gold, I mean if we sold that then that would be it, we would have nothing.  The dollar would just become complete confetti. 

http://rp12.us/aIUOT

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## bobbyw24

HOUSTON -- Although the data is now fully one week old, last weeks disaggregated commitments of traders (COT) report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that traders the CFTC classes as Managed Money (hedge funds, commodity trading advisors, etc.) held 22,250 COMEX silver futures contracts long and 4,973 short for a combined no-spread net position of 17,457 contracts long (about 87.3 million ounces).  The COT evidence is contrary to the notion that silver has already peaked and instead supports the idea that silver has merely corrected.  

That is the least amount of net long exposure for Managed Money since February 23, 2010, when the veteran speculators then held 12,624 contracts net long with silver then trading at $15.85.  Just below is a graph showing the net long positioning of traders classed as Managed Money as of Tuesday, May 10 as the price of silver closed at $38.47. 

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/05...y-2010.html#tp

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## bobbyw24

The price of silver has been notoriously volatile as it can fluctuate between industrial and store of value demands. At times this can cause wide ranging valuations in the market, creating volatility.

Silver often tracks the gold price due to store of value demands, although the ratio can vary. The gold/silver ratio is often analyzed by traders, investors and buyers. In 1792, the gold/silver ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 1:15, which meant that one troy ounce of gold would buy 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 1:15.5 was enacted in France in 1803. The average gold/silver ratio during the 20th century, however, was 1:47. The lower the ratio/number, the more expensive silver is compared to gold. Conversely the higher the ratio/number, the cheaper silver is compared to gold.

Silver price manipulation is evident in the gold to silver price ratio which should average between 10 and 20. That is, for every ounce of gold, you should be able to buy 10 to 20 ounces of silver.

http://silver-shortage.blogspot.com/...ver-ratio.html

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## bobbyw24

LONDON - 

Silver followers with an hour to spare - or those just interested in the junior precious metal - might benefit from listening to a round table discussion on You Tube, put together by silver guru David Morgan.  Admittedly all those involved are from the bullish side of the silver investment scene, but all the points made on the discussion constitute an imposing case for investment in the precious metal.  No doubt there are others who might disagree, but the people involved in the round table are all specialist followers of silver whereas many of the silver bears out there are non-specialist analysts who next week may be commenting on markets in hogs or soya beans and do not have the in-depth knowledge of those participating.

http://rp12.us/aIUOL

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## bobbyw24

MONTRÉAL(Kitco News) Despite silver prices dropping drastically over the last few weeks, after flirting with the $50 mark in late April, John Smith, President and CEO of Silver Standard Resources said silver prices will bounce back.

I try to look at more fundamental long term views around silver than the specifics of whats happening day to day in the market, said Smith.

Smith still thinks that the fundamentals which saw the white metal soar in price over the last year are still in place and the current correction was bound to happen.

I think weve seen a fairly aggressive run-up in silver price and I think theres a bit of the market drawing its breath, but at the end of the day theres still something like 60 odd trillion in cash looking for an investment home, Smith said.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe..._standard.html

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## UK4Paul

> Silver price manipulation is evident in the gold to silver price ratio which should average between 10 and 20. That is, for every ounce of gold, you should be able to buy 10 to 20 ounces of silver.


I'm not sure I entirely buy that argument. The use of silver has changed over time, from a store of value to primarily used in industrial production... while gold is still primarily seen as a store of value or used in jewelery.

In other words, why should this ratio be the same or similar to the 19th century, when silver usage has changed dramatically since then, while gold hasn't?

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## efiniti

> I'm not sure I entirely buy that argument. The use of silver has changed over time, from a store of value to primarily used in industrial production... while gold is still primarily seen as a store of value or used in jewelery.
> 
> In other words, why should this ratio be the same or similar to the 19th century, when silver usage has changed dramatically since then, while gold hasn't?


Right, the article said the gold/silver ratio was 1:47 for the 20th century, but should be around 1:20 in today's world.  But its 1:43 right now so that either means gold is overpriced or silver is undervalued.

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## Bern

The ratio used to be related to the amount of metal that was available.  Most industrial silver is unrecoverable (at least economically) in landfills.  The amount of available mined silver is now much less (rarer) than it used to be.  As investor demand for silver increases, it will drive the ratio back towards the 10-20 range (IMO).

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## bobbyw24

Bid|Ask	     37.25	 	37.27

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## bobbyw24

When asked about the action in silver specifically Embry remarked, *Lets face it, silver needed a correction because it had gone up in almost a straight line and people were talking about parabolas and what have you*.  But the correction was amplified by the CFTC allowing or sponsoring five margin hikes in eight days.  Every time the price was getting pounded they put in another margin hike, so anybody that was long and didnt have extraordinarily deep pockets had to puke the position.


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...or_%24125.html

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## HOLLYWOOD

> Bid|Ask	     37.25	 	37.27


 Durable Goods orders... #'s were horrendous... flight to saftey PMs.

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## Ray

Ah, now there is a familiar looking graph

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## Godisnowhere

"Fools, silver will be down 66%."

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## bobbyw24

With so much volatility in the gold and silver markets, today King World News interviewed one of the top ranked money managers in the country, Dr. Stephen Leeb, Founder of Leeb Capital Management.  Dr. Leebs comments surprised KWN in many ways, here is how he started the interview, I think the United States has been asleep at the switch for a long time, and I think the Chinese in contrast have been wide awake to an emerging problem in the world and its one called resource scarcity.  Weve heard a lot about resource scarcity and mostly the reaction in the US is just to shrug their shoulders, well figure out a way around it.  Well, there really is not a way around certain kinds of scarcities.

Stephen Leeb continues:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...150_Today.html

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## buffalokid777

I hope it does,

I just sold my house and am looking to buy as well as gold to put my liquid cash.

"Sell in May and go away", isn't materializing like I hoped it would

I really am hoping for a big pullback in June, even if short lived and manufactured by paper shorts. I don't know if it will happen.

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## fatjohn

There was a big pullback in may: 49 to 33. Why do you expect to have another one? Bull markets don't roll that way.

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## buffalokid777

> There was a big pullback in may: 49 to 33. Why do you expect to have another one? Bull markets don't roll that way.


Don't expect it just hoped for it, I'm a few days away from closing.

----------


## bobbyw24

With the US dollar attempting to stabilize and gold and silver off the recent lows, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had this to say in his latest commentary, Europe -- Aside from France and Germany, Europe appears to be falling apart. First it was Portugal, Ireland, Greece that were in trouble, and now you can add Italy, Belgium and Spain. Wait Spain? Spain is the fourth biggest economy in Europe. Thus the US dollar and the euro are perched on a see-saw, juggling back and forth, first one is up and the other is down, then it's vice versa.

Russell continues:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...nce_Again.html

----------


## fatjohn

> With the US dollar attempting to stabilize and gold and silver off the recent lows, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had this to say in his latest commentary, “Europe -- Aside from France and Germany, Europe appears to be falling apart. First it was Portugal, Ireland, Greece that were in trouble, and now you can add Italy, Belgium and Spain. Wait Spain? Spain is the fourth biggest economy in Europe. Thus the US dollar and the euro are perched on a see-saw, juggling back and forth, first one is up and the other is down, then it's vice versa.”
> 
> Russell continues:
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...nce_Again.html


Pff, the situation in europe is bad, yes. But it is not as bad as the states. Germany has the lowest unemployment since the reunion of east and west and Belgium had one of the highest gdp growths of the EU in the first Quarter, so the only legitimacy to put them into that list is the fact that they only have 5 governments functioning instead of the usual 6. The big difference between EU and US is the total deficit. For the EU if you add them up you have something like 7 percent of GDP the us has something of 13 percent (including states). All the while taxes are much lower in the US as a proportion to the economy. Europe might have a wrong socialistic policy, but the US claims to be capitalists and taxes as if they are, but spends like socialists. In the long run the euro is going to 2 dollars if you ask me.

----------


## nurse_emily

If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.

----------


## cubical

> If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.


You believe the dollar will strengthen from here?

----------


## Travlyr

> You believe the dollar will strengthen from here?


Every day brings more and more people to the understanding that gold and silver is real money and paper is the ghost of money. The Laws of Supply and Demand are immutable. Silver at $15? I'll try to buy a ton, but I will not hold my breath waiting.

----------


## buffalokid777

Back in 2008,

I didn't think there was any chance silver could have a 50% pullback based on fundamentals.

I was wrong.

The current pullback in silver was similar in terms of percentage to the pre cursor event in 2008.

There are powerful people who manimulate the markets via paper and shorts.

They won't be able to do it much longer, but they have at least 1 manufactured pullback, maybe 2, to escape their paper short positions as cheaply as possible.

----------


## bobbyw24

With continued volatility in gold, silver and the US dollar, today King World News interviewed one of the most street-smart pros in the resource sector, Rick Rule Founder of Global Resource Investor now part of the $9 billion strong Sprott Asset Management.  When asked if there is still a shortage in the silver market Rule replied, Yeah I think there is absolute shortage in the physical market.  There has been some softness (in the price) which I think is mostly a function of two things, generally a sort of risk off trade as institutional investors in particular have found credit conditions more difficult, and of course the tightening of the margin requirements in the futures markets.  But I dont think that has obviated the near-term physical shortage which has come about from very, very strong retail end user investment demand and a shortage of coin strip.

Rule continues:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...sis_Looms.html

----------


## bobbyw24

Jim Rogers, the renowned investor and  along with George Soros  co-founder of the famous Quantum Fund, told The Economic Times in an interview that he expects further declines in the silver price. In his view, however, the current silver price action is a healthy development as far as long-term investors are concerned. Rogers added that the white metal's long-term up trend was still intact.

According to Rogers, given the surge in the price of the metal since last August, a sharp correction was overdue. A parabolic price increase would have been counterproductive and would have resulted in a bubble. At one stage the silver price had risen by 25% in only one month  unsustainable appreciation.

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...efcode=dollarc

----------


## swissaustrian

Someone is attacking the pm´s today:

----------


## UK4Paul

Looks like there was a big sell off of SLV and SLW today. Man, silver is one wild metal.

----------


## Michael P

I bought some SLV just before close waiting for a bounce tomorrow.

----------


## freshjiva

> If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.


Silver isn't dropping below $26, which is the technical support level established in late March. Save this post. It will NOT drop below $26, unless the Senate and President miraculously pass the Ryan budget plan.

I'd begin buying at the 200-day moving average level, around $29. But look at the MACD -- it has triggered a bullish call.

I wouldn't expect too much additional downside from the current levels, but I'm keeping some cash handy just in case we do test the $29 price level.

----------


## Seraphim

This.

29-32$ silver is back up the truck time.




> Silver isn't dropping below $26, which is the technical support level established in late March. Save this post. It will NOT drop below $26, unless the Senate and President miraculously pass the Ryan budget plan.
> 
> I'd begin buying at the 200-day moving average level, around $29. But look at the MACD -- it has triggered a bullish call.
> 
> I wouldn't expect too much additional downside from the current levels, but I'm keeping some cash handy just in case we do test the $29 price level.

----------


## freshjiva

Note the $26 support, 200-day moving average at $29, and the MACD indicating a bullish trend as of 5/25.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> So where's the bottom going to be?
> 
> IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz. Barring a total crash scenario, and looking at a typical draw-back, maybe $30 will be the bottom?
> 
> What do the technical gurus think?





> _Some_ are thinking $27-$33 range.





> I have 33$ pegged as the LOWEST it will go.
> 
> I am inclined to think the brutal drop will be met with rebellious support. 
> 
> In USD, I think it will begin to hit A LOT of support at worst around 37$.
> 
> The long term fundemental bulls will stop the bleeding once they start seeing spot prices beginning with the number 3.





> This.
> 
> 29-32$ silver is back up the truck time.


Bump for $33. Who is backing up the truck today?

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

what are good places to buy silver online?

----------


## Bern

> Bump for $33. Who is backing up the truck today?


Dollar cost averaging holla.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Dollar cost averaging holla.


Right you are! Today is a good reminder...

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> what are good places to buy silver online?


Physical silver coins? APMEX.com is pretty popular. Even better if you can find a good local dealer.

----------


## losinglife

> Bump for $33. Who is backing up the truck today?


bah i want to, but i feel it will still hit 32$ or a bit lower. I will buy at some point this week to keep averaging down tho!

----------


## bobbyw24

With gold stabilizing at $1,500 and silver near the $34 level, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, 40 year veteran Robin Griffiths of Cazenove.  When asked about the action in gold Griffiths had this to say, I think the long-term trend for gold is absolutely in place and the final high is so far higher than weve been that theres nothing to worry about.  However, in the short-term it became overbought and its very likely to fall back to its 200 day moving average which is in broad numbers $1,400. 


A shakeout to there ($1,400) means nothing significant at all, its just eliminating an overbought situation.  The long-term, what I call the prime uptrend is still absolutely in place, and for as long as central banks create too much paper money thats going to remain the condition.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...on_Are_In.html

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Confusing article on Silver:




> http://www.minyanville.com/businessm.../2011/id/35450
> 
> Strange Times and Conflicting Data for Silver
> 
> It is no understatement to say that silver is currently out of favor. Two concurrent currents are at work: the fear that the May massacre instilled in long side speculators, and the growing recognition that the Federal Reserve will not debase the currency any further (at least not right away).

----------


## Bern

Eric Sprott recently published a very good summary of recent events:

http://www.industrymailout.com/Indus...20Venditor.pdf

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Some bullion related funds that I watch briefly fell through their support level today. That $30 silver is getting close.

----------


## Bern

I don't see silver falling below $33, but I'll be buying for sure if it hits $30 (assuming the spot price actually affects the price of physical silver).

----------


## devil21

Here we go again.

The DX is down today yet metals are getting hammered AGAIN?  The stock market is shooting upward, yet metals are getting hammered AGAIN?  Metals always go up when the dollar is down and almost always up when equities are up.  There's more crap games going on in the background.  I wonder how many thousands of shorts JPM created today.

----------


## ctiger2

> I don't see silver falling below $33, but I'll be buying for sure if it hits $30 (assuming the spot price actually affects the price of physical silver).


The MA(200)31.64 and probably a tad below is silvers destiny. 
The MA(200)1414.75 and prob a tad below is golds.

----------


## MRoCkEd

Silver's been going sideways for a while now

----------


## FlatIron

Once china stops buying up gold and silver, the prices of the commodities may crash pretty hard.

----------


## Travlyr

> Once china stops buying up gold and silver, the prices of the commodities may crash pretty hard.





> China Population
> Nov 17 2010
> With just over 1.3 billion people (1,330,044,605 as of mid-2008), China is the world's most populous country.
> 
> As the world's population is approximately 6.7 billion, China represents a full 20% of the world's population so one in every five people on the planet is a resident of China.


Might be a while.

----------


## YumYum

> Here we go again.
> 
> The DX is down today yet metals are getting hammered AGAIN?  The stock market is shooting upward, yet metals are getting hammered AGAIN?  Metals always go up when the dollar is down and almost always up when equities are up.  There's more crap games going on in the background. * I wonder how many thousands of shorts JPM created today.*


I have been watching the drop and silver is following gold. Gold drops, silver hesitates, then it too drops. Is JPM shorting gold?

----------


## Revolution9

Good. When the fools sell it at 10 fiat bucks an ounce I will build my house from it.

Rev9

----------


## Bern

> Stunning Plunge in COMEX Commercial Gold Net Short Futures 
> 
> Lowest relative commercial net short position to total open interest since 2008 panic for silver futures.  
> 
> Accelerated pace of commercial short covering. 
> ...
> For whatever reasons, the largest hedgers and short sellers of gold and silver futures have used the recent declines in the price of gold and silver to get a great deal “smaller” in their net short bets – and in a New York hurry as evidenced in the very important graphs shown.
> 
> Most anything can happen over the very short term, but historically very large, abrupt changes in commercial net short positioning have been like klaxons sounding for experienced traders to “get to battle stations.”  These are indeed just the kind of very large changes of which we speak.
> ...


http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07...t-futures.html

----------


## swissaustrian

> http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07...t-futures.html


Some additional excellent charts can be found here:
http://www.cftc.gov/oce/web/silver.htm 



COMEX inventories are also in freefall:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ver_Stocks.xls

----------


## Bern

Traders <> Commercials (ie. JPM, et. al.)



That graph is for the commercials, but I'm not sure that "share" is the best way to understand the issue.  Harvey posted a good table of the COT report that is easy to read:

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...r-raidcot.html

----------


## swissaustrian

You´re right i picked the wrong chart...

----------


## Bern

> I don't see silver falling below $33, but I'll be buying for sure if it hits $30 (assuming the spot price actually affects the price of physical silver).





> The MA(200)31.64 and probably a tad below is silvers destiny. 
> The MA(200)1414.75 and prob a tad below is golds.


Looks like 33ish was the low.  Eurozone credit/debt implosion is giving PMs rocket fuel right now.

----------


## UWDude

I think it still has potential to fall to $25... ...for a while, but I'm in at $33 any day.  In fact, I am considering going in at $36.  (this has been my first paycheck with spare cash in a while) The DOW is at 12,500, even though UE is still 9.2.  there is simply too much paper floating around.

----------


## Bern

FWIW:


> ...
> A big hat tip to internet contributor RG, whose message was relayed by the Midas Report. Consider verbatim his message, in which he gleefully proclaims to be calling all Rocketeers of the Happy Silver Ship. The goodfellow RG wrote, 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				"The latest Commitment of Traders Report for silver is now screaming out at full volume BUY BUY BUY. In fact, the Commercial Short-Long Ratio that I have already bored you with at great length in recent correspondence is now down at a multi-year super extreme of 1.79. Below is an up-to-date chart of the COT picture. In summary there have only been four other weeks in this whole bull cycle where the ratio has dropped below 1.80, four weeks. The first two weeks of these was the 28th August 2007 and the following week of the 4th September 2007. The second tranche was the 21st October 2008 and the following week 28th October 2008. *If you study below both the chart of silver over that period and also the HUI gold mining index, you can see how these extreme lows below 1.80 in the ratio coincided on both occasions very markedly with a bottom in both the silver price and the mining index. On each occasion this proved to be a multi-year opportunity to take positions in both the metal and the precious metal mining stocks. Each time the price of silver rose by some 60% to 90% within a six month period!* And the HUI index rose some 90% to 160%. Folks, there is no such thing as a risk-free trade. There is no such thing as a free lunch. And there is no such thing as a one-way bet. However, there are certain times in an investment cycle when an outstanding opportunity presents itself and advantage should be taken. The evidence above shows very clearly the historic correlation between an extreme low below 1.80 on the Commercial Short-Long Ratio and a multi-month bottoming in the price of both silver and the precious metal mining stocks. I have been trading the precious metal sector since 2003 and I would consider this to be one of perhaps four of the most suitable buying opportunities within the last eight years!"
> 			
> 		
> ...


http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1310056086.php

----------


## Bern

Hope you guys bought the dip.

----------


## UWDude

wish I had the money at the time.  I was worrying I would have to sell @ 33 because my finances were so bad.  Now I am employed (Yay!), and am waiting until a day off to go buy, since my usual shopping spot, Ebay, has become so expensive.  No need to pay for shipping for what I can buy locally.

----------


## cubical

> wish I had the money at the time.  I was worrying I would have to sell @ 33 because my finances were so bad.  Now I am employed (Yay!), and am waiting until a day off to go buy, since my usual shopping spot, Ebay, has become so expensive.  No need to pay for shipping for what I can buy locally.


I am in the same situation. Just got a job! But there was no way I was selling my PMs. I would have moved back in with my parents before that haha. Luckily my wife always had a job.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Bump for $33. Who is backing up the truck today?


Bump for nostalgia! Wish I had bought more that day.

----------


## bobbyw24

In 2004, 2006, and 2008, the price of silver experienced three large separate moves followed by similar corrections of magnitude and duration. Our in-house analyst, Chris Puplava, averaged them into a single composite (red line below) and compared the current chart of silver (black line) to see how closely they compare. As you can see below, the similarity between silver currently and the average of the past three moves has been very close.



http://www.financialsense.com/contri...rrection-ahead

----------


## ronpaulfollower999

Silver is dropping today! Not that I'm complaining cause I was planning on loading up this week anyway but woohoo!!!! look at that discount!

----------


## Bern

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2327/warning

----------


## devil21

If $50 down on gold and less than a dollar down on silver is all they can manage these days during raids then they're probably losing their grip on manipulation.

----------


## billjones

> In 2004, 2006, and 2008, the price of silver experienced three large separate moves followed by similar corrections of magnitude and duration. Our in-house analyst, Chris Puplava, averaged them into a single composite (red line below) and compared the current chart of silver (black line) to see how closely they compare. As you can see below, the similarity between silver currently and the average of the past three moves has been very close.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.financialsense.com/contri...rrection-ahead


Where do you see the floor for silver on this dip? Low 30's according to the chart?

----------


## bobbyw24

> Where do you see the floor for silver on this dip? Low 30's according to the chart?


Could be there soon?

----------


## squarepusher

haha waiting 7 months for this?

----------


## bobbyw24

> haha waiting 7 months for this?


I read here that in times of turmoil and stock market trouble Silver & Gold are safe havens.

----------


## ctiger2

> I read here that in times of turmoil and stock market trouble Silver & Gold are safe havens.


During a currency crisis, yes. We're not there...yet. Patience.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Another buying op coming up. Still has a way to go. Once again, 30 is a potential buy spot. (barring that big crash, as always).

----------


## bobbyw24

*Why the short-term pain of the post-"Twist" sell-off in #gold and #silver will give way to long-term gain.*



Should you worry if the gold price falls another $100?,asked a Daily Wealth article, when gold was just north of $1,800 an ounce:  As you can see from the chart, gold sprinted this summer. The metal surged from $1,500 to $1,900 in under two months. This type of parabolic move is often followed by a healthy shakeout that backtracks 50% of the previous climb. Should the 50% rule apply to golds latest jump, the precious metal would fall down to $1,700 per ounce. This fall might scare some latecomers, but wed see it as a natural, healthy selloff.

About that sprint, Gold Newsletter editor, Brien Lundin, says that If the European debt crisis and the S&P downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt had happened separately, say a couple of months apart, I think gold would have risen just as far, but the rise wouldnt have been as steep and the market wouldnt have overheated.  But they happened to occur right on top of each other, so the market got ahead of itself and went nearly parabolic. Longer term, he points out that There is no way, especially under the weight of those austerity programs, that growth can be robust enough to overcome these debt burdens. At some point and to some degree, inflation will have to depreciate those debts away. That is the very reason why investors with a long-term view are buying gold.

http://silverandgoldcoinblog.com/

----------


## -C-

If you have any inclination to what is going on, even if its limited to the central banks becoming the powerhouse purchasers of Gold, then you would cheer when you see both Gold and Silver prices go down. It gives YOU a chance to get on THEIR scheme. The PM bubble, imo, is no different than any other bubble. Hell the Gold Florin had a paper bubble on top of it in the 1300s(lol this $#@! isnt new and Gold *was* worth "zero") and it blew all to $#@! leaving all of Italy, and eventually Europe, tattered. 

So ride the wave and go physical regardless if its gold or silver...stay away from that "paper metal," its bull$#@!. In my honest opinion, if you have financial aggregated future contracts, which sum is larger than the annual global production, traded over and over again in a less amount of time than it takes to produce...it totally rules out the so-called "golden rule" to a fixed amount of inflation of said gold, or any other so-called precious metal for that matter.

----------


## bobbyw24



----------


## Bern

The London hammer strikes as soon as Asian trading closes.  It's been the pattern since the Swiss peg announcement more or less.

----------


## sluggo

Just bought some more.

32/oz is a bargain.

----------


## bobbyw24



----------


## bobbyw24

It was the biggest single-day decline in silver in two decades. On Friday, silver futures at one point posted losses of 17.7% for the day, as the spot price closed just over $31. On early Monday morning, it fell into the $26s before recovering to $29.
Earlier last week the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement warning of "significant downside risks to the economic outlook." You'd think that if silver got walloped over fears of another global recession, the stock market would have been similarly affected. Strangely, the equity markets on Friday acted as if nothing happened. The S&P 500 posted a 0.6% gain on the same day the metals complex got smashed to smithereens.
The violent price drops in the metals appear to have been driven less by the fundamentals of physical supply and demand and more by technical paper selling in the illiquid futures markets. Margin calls to leveraged futures traders  as well as increases in margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange  have accelerated the selloff.
Independent Living Bullion - A trustworthy source for gold and silver bullion.
Keep in mind that when the price of a commodity is set artificially low, shortages eventually emerge. We are already seeing signs that certain types of silver products in the retail market are becoming scarce at these prices, which are stimulating demand from bargain hunters. Asian buying in the physical market is brisk as well.
Unnatural sell-offs in these markets make many precious metals bugs irate. I take a more opportunistic view.
When the price of silver gets artificially low, I view it as an opportunity to buy ounces at a discount to the real value I'm receiving. I don't invest funds that I expect to need in the short to medium term, so these violent corrections are mostly an annoyance. Staying calm and buying more when these sharp corrections come along has been a winning strategy for this entire bull market. During the 2008 financial crisis  after silver prices collapsed by 50% to under $10  those who had the resolve to exploit the situation are today up over 200%!
Silver's Long-Term Chart Still Looking Up
More downside is possible in the paper trading market before a major support level is reached. Discouragingly, however, silver broke below its 50-week moving average, which it will need to regain before we can say all systems are go. On the bright side, the major uptrend that has been in place since late 2008 has remained intact.

Silver Long Term


There are times to be buying aggressively and times to be cautious. I was cautious on silver for much of this year. In fact, in the spring silver had gotten so overextended technically and in relation to gold on an intermediate-term basis that we at Independent Living suggested to readers that they consider selling some silver and switching it into gold. Since then, silver has fallen sharply in relation to gold.

MORE

http://cl.publicaster.com/ViewInBrow...3SaLFw&sysid=1

----------


## bobbyw24

*Will it happen in February 2012?*

----------


## Zippyjuan

Looks like the original post was pretty correct on the price direction for the price of silver. It was about $45 an ounce back then (end of April 2011- and according to the chart above was the peak price) and is around $30 an ounce now. Not a 65% decline but it has been going down.

----------


## swissaustrian

Open interest in futures is at record lows. The futures curve is still partially backwardated, indicating physical shortages. It´s unlikely that silver drops another 50 % from here. The dollar would have to strengthen a lot for that. The FED will not allow that. They need a cheap dollar.

----------


## fj45lvr

Yahooooo!!!!!  


hope if falls so I can buy more

----------


## seraphson

> Looks like the original post was pretty correct on the price direction for the price of silver. It was about $45 an ounce back then (end of April 2011- and according to the chart above was the peak price) and is around $30 an ounce now. Not a 65% decline but it has been going down.


Temporarily...Right? The word on the street is that silver will gain quite a bit of momentum in 2012. This is just another buying opportunity, right? What was all that talk about gold/silver prices being artificially maintained? I thought the true value of silver was much higher.

----------


## Seraphim

This.

It's been a while since I could really afford to add to my silver position. Now that I'm just weeks away from being able to make a significant (for me) purchase...well I hope it falls to 25$ !! 

2 months ago when silver dropped to 26$ like a knife...it shot back up equally as fast - many didn't notice how far it fell it was so quick.

Bring on the knife like drop to 20$.

I for one will be searching far and wide for cash to immediately flip for some 20$ silver.

This time around, 16-22$ silver will be very much like 8-9$ silver in 2008. STRONG strategic buy point.

I`m not convinced it will even go that low. It might though.

Gasoline is getting cheaper as well.






> Yahooooo!!!!!  
> 
> 
> hope if falls so I can buy more

----------


## Steven Douglas

> Bring on the knife like drop to 20$.


...thus putting many silver mines out of business, keeping new silver production out of circulation. 

I'd throw a massive party if it dropped to $1 and stayed there _for the next five years_. I've never bought paper silver, let alone on margin, in my life. It's not a "position" or an investment for me.  I'm just stupidly, naively using it as a store of wealth. Money. I say wipe out that "wealth".  Pop that bubble, baby, as I am not holding my breath for anything. I would LOVE to be wrong, and would gladly take one for the team. I will just continue to stock up on the worthless, volatile stuff, as I always have.  Bring it, the lower the merrier!

----------


## devil21

QE3 rumblings are restarting so this drop will be short-lived.  Deflation is what the Fed fears.

----------


## Seraphim

It wouldnt stay there for long. Doubt that puts a lot of mines out of business.




> ...thus putting many silver mines out of business, keeping new silver production out of circulation. 
> 
> I'd throw a massive party if it dropped to $1 and stayed there _for the next five years_. I've never bought paper silver, let alone on margin, in my life. It's not a "position" or an investment for me.  I'm just stupidly, naively using it as a store of wealth. Money. I say wipe out that "wealth".  Pop that bubble, baby, as I am not holding my breath for anything. I would LOVE to be wrong, and would gladly take one for the team. I will just continue to stock up on the worthless, volatile stuff, as I always have.  Bring it, the lower the merrier!

----------


## Steven Douglas

> It wouldnt stay there for long. Doubt that puts a lot of mines out of business.


I was being facetious, taking it to ridiculous extremes for those silver/gold anti-bugs who, in their wildest and most bizarre fantasies, honestly believe the value of gold and silver is fictitious (if people would just see it this way, and everyone could finally agree - which they never will).  

To all such, gold and silver are essentially no different than the intrinsically worthless fiat currencies they believe in and worship, which really are nothing more than fictitious value made real, rather than the reality: that they are only dilutions of real wealth, and real productivity, unlike gold and silver, which do have real floors, and are ultimately governed by intrinsic value and the underlying fundamentals.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> So where's the bottom going to be?
> 
> IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz. Barring a total crash scenario, and looking at a typical draw-back, maybe $30 will be the bottom?
> 
> What do the technical gurus think?


Wow, what a long thread... luckily my initial prediction (above, from 05-04-2011) is intact. 

I've been buying under $30, had my finger on the trigger today but didn't pull. I am anticipating a near-term low (dollar cost averaging buy point) this week or next.

----------


## swissaustrian

> Wow, what a long thread... luckily my initial prediction (above, from 05-04-2011) is intact. 
> 
> I've been buying under $30, had my finger on the trigger today but didn't pull. I am anticipating a near-term low (dollar cost averaging buy point) this week or next.


12-28 is january options expiry. Usually the day before options expiry is a good time to buy:

----------


## Steven Douglas

> I've been buying under $30, had my finger on the trigger today but didn't pull. I am anticipating a near-term low (dollar cost averaging buy point) this week or next.


I love the word trigger.  Some are trigger-shy, while others are trigger-happy, usually as it applies to major buys and sells.  I'm more of a trigger-pressure kind of guy.  As silver goes down, I apply more pressure, as silver goes up, I apply less pressure.  But I never sell, I never try to parlay. I never stop buying, and the trigger is always pulled.  That decision was made in 2006, and has yet to fail me. 

Screw the conventional wisdom of buying on dips and selling on peaks. That is gambling, trying to parlay - unnecessary when you have a sure thing. I accelerate on the downturns, and decelerate on the upswings, but my foot is on the accelerator only, and never once hits the brakes.

----------


## heavenlyboy34

> ...thus putting many silver mines out of business, keeping new silver production out of circulation. 
> 
> I'd throw a massive party if it dropped to $1 and stayed there _for the next five years_. I've never bought paper silver, let alone on margin, in my life.* It's not a "position" or an investment for me.  I'm just stupidly, naively using it as a store of wealth. Money.* I say wipe out that "wealth".  Pop that bubble, baby, as I am not holding my breath for anything. I would LOVE to be wrong, and would gladly take one for the team. I will just continue to stock up on the worthless, volatile stuff, as I always have.  Bring it, the lower the merrier!


+1

----------


## Zippyjuan

> QE3 rumblings are restarting so this drop will be short-lived.  Deflation is what the Fed fears.


The Fed has been giving no indications of starting any QE3 at this time. At their latest meeting (which was last week) the Fed said they would keep things as they are with no hints of any new actions.

----------


## devil21

> The Fed has been giving no indications of starting any QE3 at this time. At their latest meeting (which was last week) the Fed said they would keep things as they are with no hints of any new actions.


That's nice.  I never said the Fed itself mentioned QE3.  I will however counter your statement because the Fed has mentioned in previous recent meetings that additional stimulus may be necessary, but that's not what I was talking about.  The rumblings are in finance articles, blog posts, etc.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> That's nice.  I never said the Fed itself mentioned QE3.  I will however counter your statement because the Fed has mentioned in previous recent meetings that additional stimulus may be necessary, but that's not what I was talking about.  The rumblings are in finance articles, blog posts, etc.


"May add stimulus as necessary" or "monitoring the situation" has been part of their statement for years.  The Fed always gives warnings well in advance of any moves they intend to make so that markets have a chance to plan for and react to them- and to not spook the markets.  If they are going to offer more stimulus, they will let us know well ahead of time and since they are still saying no, that means that nothing will happen in the near future. Blogs are not the Fed and are free to speculate about whatever they want. It is just that- speculation. 

Article from December 1st:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/01/news..._qe3/index.htm



> NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors clamoring for another round of Federal Reserve bond buying need to root for a blue Christmas. That's according to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a self-described inflation hawk and influential member of the central bank. 
> 
> Bullard said at a Bloomberg hedge fund conference in New York Thursday that the Federal Reserve should get a read on the holiday season before making a decision on so-called third round of quantitative easing or QE3.
> 
> In other words, don't expect any quantitative easing in 2011.


The Fed OMC statement from last week:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20111213a.htm

----------


## Steven Douglas

> "May add stimulus as necessary" or "monitoring the situation" has been part of their statement for years.  The Fed always gives warnings well in advance of any moves they intend to make so that markets have a chance to plan for and react to them- and to not spook the markets.  If they are going to offer more stimulus, they will let us know well ahead of time and since they are still saying no, that means that nothing will happen in the near future. Blogs are not the Fed and are free to speculate about whatever they want. It is just that- speculation. 
> 
> Article from December 1st:
> http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/01/news..._qe3/index.htm
> 
> 
> The Fed OMC statement from last week:
> http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20111213a.htm


You do realize that you're quoting the Fed itself in both cases as a source, right? One is an article quoting the Fed as a source, the other is the Fed itself. Is there a de facto presumption of faith that the Fed is telling the truth? 




Did the last Fed audit, not to mention the track record of the Fed, teach us nothing? I personally don't buy into the nice rounded integers that describe QE in terms of QE1, QE2, QE3, etc., as if they really were some kind of official discrete units.  To me it's more like saying morning, afternoon and evening.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Can you show a time when the Fed began any quantative easing or made any other significant moves without announcing it first? I can't. They have always announced their intentions. Even if it is simply a tiny raising or lowering of interest rates they charge banks to borrow from them.

----------


## Steven Douglas

> Can you show a time when the Fed began any quantative easing or made any other significant moves without announcing it first? I can't.


That's the point.  I can't even show you a time when the Fed made _any moves_ other than interest rate setting, regardless of whether it was preceded by an announcement.   

If I could lob a slow floating invisible weather-balloon bomb in your direction, one that takes six months to actually reach you, and then "announced" that I'm doing it a few weeks before it arrives, would that count as "announcing it first" in your mind?  Not too far fetched, coming from an entity which, which it says "inflation", means _price inflation_ (the effect), not _currency inflation_ (the cause).  

Everything the Fed does behind closed doors has a delayed effect, while everything the Fed announces in public has some immediate effect.   

Hey, you seem to trust them, taking them at their word.  I have every reason in the world not to trust them, given what I see as treason in just the basics which are well known.  Beyond that I need to see how far I can throw them first before I can trust them. So far, not so far.

----------


## cubical

nm

----------


## cubical

> Can you show a time when the Fed began any quantative easing or made any other significant moves without announcing it first? I can't. They have always announced their intentions. Even if it is simply a tiny raising or lowering of interest rates they charge banks to borrow from them.


Without announcing anything M2 has risen 7% since the fed stopped QE2 only 6 months ago.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Without announcing anything M2 has risen 7% since the fed stopped QE2 only 6 months ago.


Thanks for the info- I honestly haven't checked it in a while. Looks like over the past year (November 2010 to November 2011) it has gone up 9.8% (seasonally adjusted M2). 
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/
Over that same time period (I looked at end of November for both years on this chart from the St Louis Fed http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE.txt ) the base is up by 29%.

The Fed does not have to change its policy for the money supply to change. They are still for example keeping their target interest rates at very low levels.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

$27 bump!

----------


## bobbyw24

> $27 bump!


Indeed--where's this $200 Schiff talked about???????????????????

https://goldsilver.com/new/peter-sch...rade-over-200/

----------


## Bern

MF Global may have initiated a fundamental change to the futures market.  We may yet see that fabled disconnect between the paper and physical market in 2012.

----------


## TheDriver

A little lower, and it's buying time!

----------


## xFiFtyOnE

$2 drop possible today?

----------


## fatjohn

> Indeed--where's this $200 Schiff talked about???????????????????
> 
> https://goldsilver.com/new/peter-sch...rade-over-200/


So where do you see it going from here. Further down to 17? When? And what after that? If i may ask.

----------


## bobbyw24

> So where do you see it going from here. Further down to 17? When? And what after that? If i may ask.


You know, I kijnda want it to go to $18 by late Janaury like the chart I posted a week or so ago suggests since I sold most of my holdings at $44/oz.

I would love to stock up any where below %20/oz.

I may buy shares of  SIL and by puts on SLV to hedge my bets

----------


## bobbyw24

*Will it happen in February 2012?*

----------


## Seraphim

Everything is down a lot today - this is more market phenomenon than silver itself.

Keep on dropping.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Everything is down a lot today - this is more market phenomenon than silver itself.
> 
> Keep on dropping.


Year end tax sales. This is the week people (traders/investors in taxable accounts) finalize their gains/losses.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> So where do you see it going from here. Further down to 17? When? And what after that? If i may ask.


People can guess- but nobody can know for certain.

----------


## virginiakid

So if prices fall, that just means I can buy more silver....woohooo!

----------


## Zippyjuan

"Dollar cost averaging" is a good way to invest in just about anything you want- you buy a certain dollar amount at regular intervals. If the price is higher, you buy less of the investment, if the price is lower, you get more of it.

----------


## Godisnowhere

There are all kinds of ignorant statements like this floating around. Fact 1 - USD Unfunded liability > $100 Trillion with current debt >16 Trillion and the US cannot EVER make those payments and the bill is coming due. Based on Fact 1 is this guy right about silver and gold being in a bubble?  Perhaps a short time but Never for long. But that is not all. What has happened to the physical inventory of silver? Does this ignorant guy who wrote this about the silver bubble even know? If so please tell us where the inventory of silver is because you imply that it is in a bubble so the inventory must be large just like the number of available houses right, wrong.  Above ground silver is more rare now than Gold. And what about the new uses of silver because every single cell phone, every TV, every solar device, and other electronics and medical devices are consuming more inventory. The inventory is being depleted not growing so is this a bubble?  But that is not all, what about the new breakthrough in battery technology using silver dust combined with silicon that will revolutionize electric cars and a host of other battery operated stuff that will require more silver. What is this going to do with the inventory level.  And what about the Euro is it is good shape?  So Silver as a monetary metal like gold is a bubble if one believes the fiat monies are going to get stronger.  With the Euro bankrupt and the US dollar heading for certain default what do you think on this smart man who calls others "fools".  And the other side of the silver buble is the inventory and the industrial use of the metal. Is it decreasing? Is the mining capacity producing enormous amounts more of it? The answer is no. In fact one can look at the inventory level and the demand for industrial silver and see it is under priced and being controlled. So where is this ignorant guy coming from? Is it true ignorance or simply influenced by the forces that want to keep silver down?  I hope ignorance because that can be quickly corrected with some study and understanding but the other would simply be mere evil.  Please let us know which as we want to know. If I am wrong and ignorant please deal with the specific points I have made and inform me. I do not want to remain ignorant if I am. However, in 2008 after studying the mining cost of silver, the inventory levels, the increased industrial demand of it, the low ration of 70:1 to Gold which physically be 15:1 based on natural mining of the metals from the earth, I realized I should buy silver at $12 an ounce. A Raymond James rep in Peru Indiana told no matter what I did I should NEVER buy silver because he said I would be a fool. Now this guy is saying the same. So who do you all believe?

----------


## bobbyw24

*$26.49*



(Kitco News) - Comex February gold futures prices Thursday morning are seeing strong follow-through selling pressure from steep losses suffered Wednesday. February gold overnight hit a fresh six-month low of $1,523.90 an ounce. Fresh, serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted in gold this week. Heavy long-liquidation pressures have surfaced as the year winds down. Dont remind gold traders this week was supposed to be a quieter, holiday trading week. February gold last traded down $34.30 at $1,529.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $27.80 an ounce at $1,529.00.  March Comex silver last traded down $0.854 at $28.38 an ounce.



http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...1229JW_am.html

----------


## Jeez

Hope everyone listened to my warnings couple months back where i noted there is bearish move in Silver and it could go as low as $20 /oz.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Gold is down about $350 (an 18% decline) from its high for the year as well:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Hope everyone listened to my warnings couple months back where i noted there is bearish move in Silver and it could go as low as $20 /oz.


$20 was my worst case scenario too. Will we see the worst case though? Sentiment is pretty negative all around, which usually means buy to contrarians.

Relative (to other fiat currencies) US dollar strength is all that worries me for the metal price in US dollars. That usually levels out at some point. Are we there yet? Or does the dollar have a significant rise left vs the Euro?

----------


## kuckfeynes

I hope it does go down to $20 (and gold to $1450 or whatever) so I have time to make more FRNs and buy more for less.

The dollar is temporarily perceived to be strong, the economy is temporarily perceived to be growing...

Deflation before inflation...

----------


## Steven Douglas

> I hope it does go down to $20 (and gold to $1450 or whatever) so I have time to make more FRNs and buy more for less.
> 
> The dollar is temporarily perceived to be strong, the economy is temporarily perceived to be growing...
> 
> Deflation before inflation...


Yep, while many are selling Euros and buying dollars, some dollar holders are dumping dollars and buying silver. 

"kuckfeynes" lol - love your name.

----------


## YumYum

> I hope it does go down to $20 (and gold to $1450 or whatever) so I have time to make more FRNs and buy more for less.
> 
> The dollar is temporarily perceived to be strong, the economy is temporarily perceived to be growing...
> 
> *Deflation before inflation*...


Griffin himself says the same thing in his book "Creature". I tried to warn people of this back in 2009, and was met with some very interesting opposing views. Its not that I didn't/don't believe that we will have hyper-inflation, what is a fact is that in the boom and bust cycles there is always a deflationary period before hyper-inflation. That is why we will have tyranny; and that is to "save our dollar". The deflation that we are now entering will be forced on us by the banksters, and will be horrible.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ill-strengthen

----------


## Bossobass

Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:



In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100. 

Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?

Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.

Bosso

----------


## YumYum

> Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:
> 
> 
> 
> In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100. 
> 
> Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?
> 
> Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.
> ...


Bosso...the problem with people who are broke and holding on to their precious metals is that at some time in the future they need cash to pay their bills. In fact, that is why gold and silver are bearish, because everybody needs cash right now, and you can't survive holding on to gold or silver in one hand, and with a thumb up the ass with the other hand. People have to eat.

----------


## Acala

> Bosso...the problem with people who are broke and holding on to their precious metals is that at some time in the future they need cash to pay their bills. In fact, that is why gold and silver are bearish, because everybody needs cash right now, and you can't survive holding on to gold or silver in one hand, and with a thumb up the ass with the other hand. People have to eat.


Anyone who invested the cash they need to live on in gold or silver made a mistake.  I have never heard any reputable analyst say otherwise.

----------


## YumYum

> Anyone who invested the cash they need to live on in gold or silver made a mistake.  I have never heard any reputable analyst say otherwise.


Yeah, but what about the suckers who bought gold when it was at $1900 an ounce? Do you feel their pain?

----------


## Acala

> Yeah, but what about the suckers who bought gold when it was at $1900 an ounce? Do you feel their pain?


Unless they bought at $1900 and sold lower, they have no real pain - only imaginary pain.  And the perfect relief for the imaginary pain of a purely paper loss is to stop worrying about it.

If they did, in fact, buy at $1900 and sell at current prices, they are also not following the sound advice I have seen on this forum and coming from wise investors.  Unless I missed it, nobody I respect is advising to sell gold or silver now.

This is not rocket surgery.  The dollar will inevitably be debased because there is no other way to fill the debt hole other than default.  Politicians and banks will not choose default because it will end their scam more quickly.  Turning paper dollars that are doomed to be debased into hard assets that have a long history of being useful is a LONG-TERM strategy for preserving wealth.

Short-term trading is beyond my ability and my threshhold of risk.  Speculating in commodities in the short term is risky.  People who bought gold at $1900 thinking they were going to sell it within a few months at a profit took a risk.  They got burned.  But not because they followed the advice on this forum.

----------


## Steven Douglas

> Unless they bought at $1900 and sold lower, they have no real pain - only imaginary pain.  And the perfect relief for the imaginary pain of a purely paper loss is to stop worrying about it.
> 
> If they did, in fact, buy at $1900 and sell at current prices, they are also not following the sound advice I have seen on this forum and coming from wise investors.  Unless I missed it, nobody I respect is advising to sell gold or silver now.
> 
> This is not rocket surgery.  The dollar will inevitably be debased because there is no other way to fill the debt hole other than default.  Politicians and banks will not choose default because it will end their scam more quickly.  Turning paper dollars that are doomed to be debased into hard assets that have a long history of being useful is a LONG-TERM strategy for preserving wealth.
> 
> Short-term trading is beyond my ability and my threshhold of risk.  Speculating in commodities in the short term is risky.  People who bought gold at $1900 thinking they were going to sell it within a few months at a profit took a risk.  They got burned.  But not because they followed the advice on this forum.


^^^ THIS THIS THIS ^^^ +rep

Anyone who bought it short-term with money they couldn't afford to sock away for the long haul, I have some sympathy for some, but no empathy, because it was an INVESTMENT - not a store of wealth.  When Gold hits $2,000 and $3,000, and higher eventually - as it inevitably will - it won't be because of pleasure OR pain on the part of the gold itself, regardless how anyone feels.  The only "windfall" involved will be the sound of the wind as the value of the currency and derivatives, not the gold that neither represents, plummets.

----------


## YumYum

> Unless they bought at $1900 and sold lower, they have no real pain - only imaginary pain.  And the perfect relief for the imaginary pain of a purely paper loss is to stop worrying about it.
> 
> If they did, in fact, buy at $1900 and sell at current prices, they are also not following the sound advice I have seen on this forum and coming from wise investors.  Unless I missed it, nobody I respect is advising to sell gold or silver now.
> 
> This is not rocket surgery.  The dollar will inevitably be debased because there is no other way to fill the debt hole other than default.  Politicians and banks will not choose default because it will end their scam more quickly.  Turning paper dollars that are doomed to be debased into hard assets that have a long history of being useful is a LONG-TERM strategy for preserving wealth.
> 
> Short-term trading is beyond my ability and my threshhold of risk.  Speculating in commodities in the short term is risky.  People who bought gold at $1900 thinking they were going to sell it within a few months at a profit took a risk.  They got burned.  But not because they followed the advice on this forum.


Advice on this forum??? You must be joking! If that is the case, what about people who are hoarding gold, and will be thrown in jail for disobeying the new laws that will hit them between the eyes that will outlaw hoarding precious metals? Where will you hide your metals?

----------


## Acala

> Advice on this forum??? You must be joking! If that is the case, what about people who are hoarding gold, and will be thrown in jail for disobeying the new laws that will hit them between the eyes that will outlaw hoarding precious metals? Where will hide your metal?


I don't have any metal.  I converted mine to food production machinery (hammer mill, seed press, diesel engines to run them etc.)and other tools to help me take a productive place in the coming localized economy.  I think the time of austerity to come will exceed almost anyone's ability to hoard food or consumable assets.  So I invest in tools and skills.

But I think the idea that there will be some nationwide Federal swoop where millions of homes will be invaded and people incarcerated for owning gold is so improbable and logistically difficult as to be laughable.  Furthermore, I can't think of any asset that is EASIER to hide than gold.  Easier than my tools.

----------


## Steven Douglas

> I don't have any metal.  I converted mine to food production machinery (hammer mill, seed press, diesel engines to run them etc.)and other tools to help me take a productive place in the coming localized economy.  I think the time of austerity to come will exceed almost anyone's ability to hoard food or consumable assets.  So I invest in tools and skills.


I have metal, but my plan is also very similar, and also deals with food - not on the processing, but localized farming and agricultural end, and how to make that as viral as possible. The metal is partly a hedge, should that means be expropriated or otherwise commandeered, which I think is far more likely from any number of sources.

----------


## Acala

> I have metal, but my plan is also very similar, and also deals with food - not on the processing, but localized farming and agricultural end, and how to make that as viral as possible. The metal is partly a hedge, should that means be expropriated or otherwise commandeered, which I think is far more likely from any number of sources.


Interesting.  I am REALLY interested in small, self-sustaining, grass-fed cow-calf operations.

----------


## Steven Douglas

> Interesting.  I am REALLY interested in small, self-sustaining, grass-fed cow-calf operations.


Me too. Sent you a PM.

----------


## Bossobass

> Yeah, but what about the suckers who bought gold when it was at $1900 an ounce? Do you feel their pain?


What about the suckers who bought a home in CA, FLA, AZ in 2007?

When gold was $1900, my neighbors bought a Cadillac Escalade. If they had bought gold instead, would they be feeling pain vs the SUV, tires, oil changes, registration fees, plates costs, insurance, gasoline, personal tax, etc., etc? When they bought the SUV, did they plan to keep it for 3 months and sell it?

If you asked them about buying that much gold, they would say without hesitation; "I can't afford that!!!", but when you mention that they had no apparent problem finding the means to purchase the SUV, you'll immediately get; "But, you HAVE to have a CAR!!!".

But, let's stick to silver here, since that's the subject of the thread. Silver has outperformed gold 2:1 since the meltdown. Gold is at or above where it should be, silver is 1/2 what it should be against the USD. That means, IMHO, that with a USDX at 80, silver should cost 60USD. If TPTB were making ANY moves to strengthen the USD, I would still hold silver. But, they're doing the opposite, continuing to debase the USD.

My point is a very simple one. While virtually everyone I know has just spent thousands of USD to satisfy the demands of the Christmas obligation and the latest iPad, iPhone, Plasma TV, Premium Cable Package, Dining Out, sucking down booze by the case and really cool shoes... it would be absurd for me to think of them as suffering any pain if they had allocated a percentage of those completely useless expenditures toward silver at $48.

Bosso

----------


## YumYum

Well said , Bosso!

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What about the suckers who bought a home in CA, FLA, AZ in 2007?
> 
> When gold was $1900, my neighbors bought a Cadillac Escalade. If they had bought gold instead, would they be feeling pain vs the SUV, tires, oil changes, registration fees, plates costs, insurance, gasoline, personal tax, etc., etc? When they bought the SUV, did they plan to keep it for 3 months and sell it?
> 
> If you asked them about buying that much gold, they would say without hesitation; "I can't afford that!!!", but when you mention that they had no apparent problem finding the means to purchase the SUV, you'll immediately get; "But, you HAVE to have a CAR!!!".
> 
> But, let's stick to silver here, since that's the subject of the thread. Silver has outperformed gold 2:1 since the meltdown. Gold is at or above where it should be, silver is 1/2 what it should be against the USD. That means, IMHO, that with a USDX at 80, silver should cost 60USD. If TPTB were making ANY moves to strengthen the USD, I would still hold silver. But, they're doing the opposite, continuing to debase the USD.
> 
> My point is a very simple one. While virtually everyone I know has just spent thousands of USD to satisfy the demands of the Christmas obligation and the latest iPad, iPhone, Plasma TV, Premium Cable Package, Dining Out, sucking down booze by the case and really cool shoes... it would be absurd for me to think of them as suffering any pain if they had allocated a percentage of those completely useless expenditures toward silver at $48.
> ...


I bought my home in CA in 1999.  It is still worth more than I paid for it. But there is no way I could have or would have purchased in 2007. I am wary of buying anything which has had a good runup in price- and at $1900 gold had been up a very large amount.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What about the suckers who bought a home in CA, FLA, AZ in 2007?
> 
> When gold was $1900, my neighbors bought a Cadillac Escalade. If they had bought gold instead, would they be feeling pain vs the SUV, tires, oil changes, registration fees, plates costs, insurance, gasoline, personal tax, etc., etc? When they bought the SUV, did they plan to keep it for 3 months and sell it?
> 
> If you asked them about buying that much gold, they would say without hesitation; "I can't afford that!!!", but when you mention that they had no apparent problem finding the means to purchase the SUV, you'll immediately get; "But, you HAVE to have a CAR!!!".
> 
> But, let's stick to silver here, since that's the subject of the thread. Silver has outperformed gold 2:1 since the meltdown. Gold is at or above where it should be, silver is 1/2 what it should be against the USD. That means, IMHO, that with a USDX at 80, silver should cost 60USD. If TPTB were making ANY moves to strengthen the USD, I would still hold silver. But, they're doing the opposite, continuing to debase the USD.
> 
> My point is a very simple one. While virtually everyone I know has just spent thousands of USD to satisfy the demands of the Christmas obligation and the latest iPad, iPhone, Plasma TV, Premium Cable Package, Dining Out, sucking down booze by the case and really cool shoes... it would be absurd for me to think of them as suffering any pain if they had allocated a percentage of those completely useless expenditures toward silver at $48.
> ...


I bought my home in CA in 1999.  It is still worth more than I paid for it. But there is no way I could have or would have purchased in 2007. I am wary of buying anything which has had a good runup in price- and at $1900 gold had been up a very large amount.

----------


## Bossobass

> I bought my home in CA in 1999.  It is still worth more than I paid for it. But there is no way I could have or would have purchased in 2007. I am wary of buying anything which has had a good runup in price- and at $1900 gold had been up a very large amount.


Take the price you paid for your house and instead purchase gold in 1999 at $280. If you were smart, you'd have sold it at $1900 and bought it back at $1550. 

If you bought your home with a mortgage, you also paid interest along with property taxes, insurance and the required maintenance. Counting the actual costs involved, I doubt your home is worth more than you paid for it.

Against the million+ the gold would be worth today, there is no real comparison here.

Bosso

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> My point is a very simple one. While virtually everyone I know has just spent thousands of USD to satisfy the demands of the Christmas obligation and the latest iPad, iPhone, Plasma TV, Premium Cable Package, Dining Out, sucking down booze by the case and really cool shoes... it would be absurd for me to think of them as suffering any pain if they had allocated a percentage of those completely useless expenditures toward silver at $48.
> 
> Bosso


Ain't that the truth. These kind of people buy high and sell low, so investing isn't really for them in the first place.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Take the price you paid for your house and instead purchase gold in 1999 at $280. If you were smart, you'd have sold it at $1900 and bought it back at $1550. 
> 
> If you bought your home with a mortgage, you also paid interest along with property taxes, insurance and the required maintenance. Counting the actual costs involved, I doubt your home is worth more than you paid for it.
> 
> Against the million+ the gold would be worth today, there is no real comparison here.
> 
> Bosso


Is that what you did? Sold all your gold at $1900?  Incredible that you knew that would be the top price for the market.  In 1999, I was looking at a guaranteed return on buying my home. Consider also that at that time, the price of gold had been falling nearly every year for 20 years. That did not look like a very good investment. Not many people want to invest in something which had such a dismal record. 


Buying  a home vs renting? When you rent, you are paying interest, property taxes, and required maintanance to- that is going to the person who owns the property owner and is included in your rent- you are paying those costs for them. You are not avoiding those costs.  By using the same amount of money (my mortgage plus taxes are actually lower than renting a comparable unit in my area), instead of simply giving that money away to the property owner, I get a piece of that property for myself. Now when do I get my return? I have been saving all along vs the cost of renting and in addition when it is paid for (in just under one year more at the rate I have been pre-paying on the mortgage) my spendable income will jump by nearly 30%- and I get that return for as long as I continue to live here. Guaranteed.  I can't get that guarantee from gold or other investments which will go up or down over time. And if I want I can still sell my home so I get a return plus still own the asset. To get the return on gold you have to actually sell it. 

In reality, the choice was keep renting or buy a home. It was not buy a home or buy gold-  you would still be spending that money either way on renting or home ownership. If you want to buy gold instead of renting, you can't because you still need a place to live. Unless you still live with Mom.  That must be from money in addition to any rents or mortgage/interest/maintanance.  It is not instead of.  You can own a home and buy gold. It is not either or. I took money not going to rent and put it towards the home purchase. I still had to pay that money anyways- might as well get something for it.  And by paying it off early (note that this will be in less than even 15 years) I am saving thousands in interest. 

I am very happy with my decision. 


So let us say I did not purchase a home when I did.  I would still have been paying about $1000 a month or so on rent (Southern California beach area).  I would not nearly have it paid off and I would not have had that "extra" money "saved" by not buying a home to put into gold. I would still be paying $1000 or more a month and not be facing a 30% increase in disposable income for 2013 and having an asset worth over $200,000. I do not see how I would be better off. But that is how it worked out for me.  
If I decide to put more money into gold, can you promise me (and back it up with a guarantee) that gold will once again triple in price? Nobody can.

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## Bossobass

> Is that what you did? Sold all your gold at $1900?  Incredible that you knew that would be the top price for the market.  In 1999, I was looking at a guaranteed return on buying my home. Consider also that at that time, the price of gold had been falling nearly every year for 20 years. That did not look like a very good investment. Not many people want to invest in something which had such a dismal record. 
> 
> 
> Buying  a home vs renting? When you rent, you are paying interest, property taxes, and required maintanance to- that is going to the person who owns the property owner and is included in your rent- you are paying those costs for them. You are not avoiding those costs.  By using the same amount of money (my mortgage plus taxes are actually lower than renting a comparable unit in my area), instead of simply giving that money away to the property owner, I get a piece of that property for myself. Now when do I get my return? I have been saving all along vs the cost of renting and in addition when it is paid for (in just under one year more at the rate I have been pre-paying on the mortgage) my spendable income will jump by nearly 30%- and I get that return for as long as I continue to live here. Guaranteed.  I can't get that guarantee from gold or other investments which will go up or down over time. And if I want I can still sell my home so I get a return plus still own the asset. To get the return on gold you have to actually sell it. 
> 
> In reality, the choice was keep renting or buy a home. It was not buy a home or buy gold-  you would still be spending that money either way on renting or home ownership. If you want to buy gold instead of renting, you can't because you still need a place to live. Unless you still live with Mom.  That must be from money in addition to any rents or mortgage/interest/maintanance.  It is not instead of.  You can own a home and buy gold. It is not either or. I took money not going to rent and put it towards the home purchase. I still had to pay that money anyways- might as well get something for it.  And by paying it off early (note that this will be in less than even 15 years) I am saving thousands in interest. 
> 
> I am very happy with my decision. 
> 
> ...


No, I sold at $1700. Did you invest in anything that appreciated that much in 12 years? If so, you're a pretty astute investor, considering the DOW is up only <20% in that span.

You haven't told us yet what your house has actually cost you to date vs what you think it's worth? BTW, how much is your house worth if no one wants to buy it?

I don't care if you or anyone else invests in silver (the subject of this thread). Did I give you the impression that I do? I just object to silly arguments against the idea by folks who just aren't thinking straight, have a typical American consumer mentality that dictates that buying built-in obsolescence and losing buckets of income in the process is AOK, but "FOOLS, Silver Is Gonna DROP!!!" 

Here's my guarantee; I'll buy the silver instead of you. Good luck with your real estate portfolio out there in CA. 

Bosso

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## Zippyjuan

I paid just over $100k for my condo which even after the price drops is still worth over $200k (what they are currently selling for). If you consider that, I still have a pretty nice return. If I was paying rent, my return would have been a loss of 100% every month.  And in one more year I will be basically paying no rent (OK- small amounts compared to rent- there will still be property taxes and homeowners fees but that will be one third of what I would be paying in rent had I not bought- about $300 a month vs $1100 a month).  Your return on gold is excellent. Congratulations! Nobody could have predicted that- you were lucky on that.  Were you buying metals in 1999? Not many were- as I pointed out, at that time gold had been declining in price for 20 years. 

This is just how it worked out for me. I was as lucky on real estate as you were on gold. It depends on when you got in if either would be a good move for somebody else. Buying either gold six months ago when it was $1900 or real estate two years ago at the top of that market would not be as good of a deal- though that remains to be seen how they come out in the long run. My goal was to have a place paid off before I retire (at least a decade and a half away) to lower my expenses.  That gives you the same economic benefit as having a pile of money put into some other investment.  I get the benefits (lower expenses) and still own the asset as well.

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## Steven Douglas

> This is just how it worked out for me. I was as lucky on real estate as you were on gold. It depends on when you got in if either would be a good move for somebody else. Buying either gold six months ago when it was $1900 or real estate two years ago at the top of that market would not be as good of a deal- though that remains to be seen how they come out in the long run. My goal was to have a place paid off before I retire (at least a decade and a half away) to lower my expenses.  That gives you the same economic benefit as having a pile of money put into some other investment.  I get the benefits (lower expenses) and still own the asset as well.


All of this speaks to temporal strategies employed for the greatest return in value as strictly an investment strategy, which, like you said, is "just how it worked" for you (thus far). The equity on your house has outperformed gold thus far (again, just within your investment time span), as housing values continue to have a relatively high floor, despite the housing crisis, and may continue to remain high so long as interest rates remain low and there is at least enough economic activity for people to continue to buy and sell houses.  

Remember that you also stated that it was your goal to have a place paid off before you retire, which is at least fifteen years away.  That goal, as stated, is not an investment strategy, per se, but a survival/security goal - one that happens to be supported by wise investment. 

As of this moment, you have enough equity in your house to be able to liquidate it and purchase a $100k house outright.  But let's say that you don't do that. Let's say that your expectation is that you will not lose the net equity you've gained, and that your plan is just to see the mortgage through until your condo is finally paid for.  

That all hinges on what can happen at any time within the next fifteen years, so let's look at that in the long term:

1 - The economy will remain more or less stable, with moderate price inflation that will continue to increase your equity position even as dollars become inexorably cheaper.  

2 - Abnormally high price inflation or hyperinflation, enabling you to pay off our loan in even cheaper dollars.

That assumes, of course, that a) you are able to adjust your income, and/or b) that the rising cost of other necessities doesn't seriously impact your ability meet your mortgage obligations.  However, such a scenario assumes economic instability, as unusually high price inflation also coincides historically with enormous capital flight, as people pour money into commodities, so once again we're back to gold and silver, and whether it will outperform your condo in the long run.    

3 - Monetary deflation, or a full-on credit deflationary crash and depression kicks in (even temporarily, prior to hyperinflation) and becomes so acute that two things could happen:

Your means for acquiring the cash required to pay off your loan no longer exists, and/orHousing prices fall even further, eating into your equity by that much.

If you are without income, you might be forced to liquidate other assets, and barring that ability, might lose your condo anyway. Even if you are fortunate enough to retain your own income source, if severe deflation is an economy-wide phenomenon, with enough foreclosures around you, that could most definitely represent a drop in the general floor value real estate to the point of putting you upside down, with negative equity.  

Meanwhile, what happens historically to gold and silver during a deflationary depression?  It skyrockets, right along with perishable commodities, outperforming everything, even as shortages are revealed.  Abnormally high prices will eventually correct as available cash dries up, but very slowly in terms of hard and soft commodities, because that is where all the available cash is being pumped -- into something that is otherwise unavailable even at high prices. So it remains highly liquid, even as prices for everything else, including real estate, continues to fall. 

In the long run, a frugal renter who bought PM's could end up being able to buy more than just a condo. It all hinges on what you think is going to happen with the currency, and therefore the economy.  I'm betting against both.

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## Zippyjuan

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. 

You seem to be making the same mistake that Bossobass was.  I am not taking any extra income to purchase the condo- I am instead using money which would have been going to paying rent and getting me nothing. By purchasing a home I am getting something in return for that money rather than simply giving it away every month.  A person cannot really take the money they are spending on rent, stop paying that rent, and buy precious metals (unless they decide to live on the street or bum of somebody else for a place to stay) but you can buy a home with it.  As for inflation, if prices for everything are rising then rents will likely also be rising. My mortgage will not be rising (fixed mortgage rate of course) and in fact will go to zero once it is paid off.  This will not happen for a renter. I am avoiding inflation in the price of renting while the renter could face higher costs in the future, mine will be lower and we both get the same thing- a place to live- for the money. 

This does not exclude using any extra money to invest in gold as any renter can do as well. 

By the way, my balance due is down to about $15k so I really have about $200k in equity.  I expect to have it gone in about one year (not 15 years) by making extra payments.  Granted these extra payment ARE money which could go to something else. I just don't see much else offering the same rate of return right now as the interest I am paying.  I think metals have peaked for now and that stocks will be pretty flat for a few years- maybe longer.

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## Steven Douglas

Actually, I am not ignoring rent, or the fact that one must live while saving.  

I think many people make the mistake of simplistically thinking of mortgage payments as somehow equal to rental payments they otherwise would have had to make.  After all, goes the reasoning, why make someone else's mortgage payment when you can buy and own yourself? 

If your mortgage payment truly equals the rent you could have otherwise paid (do like valued condos in your area rent for what you are paying in mortgage payments?), and none of the hidden cost of ownership of your condo eats into that by any appreciable amount, then there _may be_ nothing wrong with what you are doing - and provided you never end up in a situation where you are upside down.  

As it is now, most people can actually save a considerable amount of money by renting. They can rent _and pocket/save the difference_ between the mortgage cost and the rental value.  The only thing they stand to lose is any equity the owner will have if the rental appreciates in value. 

The New York Times published a nifty widget that accounts for various factors in determining whether it really is better to buy or rent.  And the answer is always:  _it depends_ on a number of factors.  (don't take the default values at face value - play with the sliders, and even the advanced settings where you can input all of your costs and other factors)

Rental prices are rarely equal to mortgage payments, unless someone has owned their rental property for a very long time.  If housing prices fall, and foreclosures become more rampant, renters have the ultimate variable rate mortgage, because they can always move to a house where an owner is at least trying to recoup some of his obligation.  But the days of positive cash flow for new owners who buy houses to turn into rentals are gone in most areas.  

Since we are talking about PMs versus real estate - and *long term only*, given that you are paying on a mortgage, your long term bet is that real estate will outperform PMs.  Mine would be the opposite, with housing prices continuing to fall/correct, and dollar prices of PM's rising - and ultimately becoming deleveraged, as they float up and away from their previously suppressed ceilings.  

Thus, a renter who saves the difference in PM's can actually accumulate enough to later buy a foreclosed house that has lost its value, and end up on top - regardless of whether we are faced with deflationary depression - where both credit AND cash are scarce - or hyperinflation, where PM's skyrocket along with all hard and soft commodities as the only goods having any real value.

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## Zippyjuan

> If your mortgage payment truly equals the rent you could have otherwise paid (do like valued condos in your area rent for what you are paying in mortgage payments?), and none of the hidden cost of ownership of your condo eats into that by any appreciable amount, then there may be nothing wrong with what you are doing - and provided you never end up in a situation where you are upside down.


At the time of my purchase, the mortgage plus property taxes and HOA fees was pretty close to what rentals were (I got in just before the bubble took off- luck on my part) and now they are less than renting comparable units (currently $1100 a month to rent vs my current $800 for taxes, HOA and mortgage).  As for ending up in an upside down situation, as I mentioned in my last post I only owe another $15,000 on it so that is incredibly unlikely. But being upside down only really matters if you decide to sell your house during the time it is valued at less than you paid for it.  If you bought gold at $1500 and it drops to $1200, one has not lost that $300 unless you sell at that price. 

You are right that things are different now as far as the gap between rentals and purchasing costs, but in many areas that is closing again- rental prices have been rising while selling prices of homes have been coming down. Interest rates are also incredibly low right now so that also makes it a pretty good time to buy. 

You are also right that a person needs to consider what else they could do with that money and if they think it would be a wise decision for them.  In 1999 (the year I bought my place) gold had been going down in price for about 20 years following the 1980 bubble- making high prices for gold seem more like an anomoly.  One could not have predicted either the extent of the housing bubble and its collapse or that gold would take off like it has. Will housing go down furher or is it nearing its bottom? I am inclined to think the bottom in most areas is not really that far off now (we won't know until after the bottom has passed of course) and gold peaked in price back this past summer at $1900 and has been settling down again.  Will it continue to go lower or will it reverse course again and go up? Was that another bubble which is now passed or are we just in a correction on the way higher? Nobody can predict with any certainty. 

A person needs to be sure they will stay in the home for a while too. If one plans on moving in a few years, buying is definately not a good idea. 

I am pleased with my decision. I locked in my housing costs and in another year my disposable income will take a significant jump. If I wanted to, I could take the money I will be saving and buy perhaps half an ounce of gold every month (at current gold prices I will be saving that much) compared to what I would be paying to still rent.  Others of course will have to make their own decision. 

Interesting chart: US housing prices in terms of ounces of gold:
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

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## Zippyjuan

Article from 2011:
http://money.msn.com/home-loans/the-...martmoney.aspx



> 3/3/2011 11:07 AM ET
> By SmartMoney
> *The rising costs of renting*
> 
> With inflation on the upswing and home prices still subdued, becoming a renter is no longer the bargain it was in recent years.
> 
> 
> Freaked by the housing market, more would-be homebuyers are opting for rentals -- and driving up prices along the way. But rising rents aren't the only thing apartment dwellers have to worry about. New costs could also make renting less of a bargain than it appears.





> In some cities, the housing market has fallen so far, and the rental market has gotten so tight, that rent could cost significantly more than a mortgage on a comparable place.
> 
> In Miami's Dade County, for example, renting a two-bedroom apartment costs $1,206 on average. Monthly mortgage and property tax payments on the same property, based on a median list price of $209,000, would cost $774, according to Movoto.com, which tracks rentals and sale prices. Over five years, that's a difference of almost $26,000 -- not even including the tax break for mortgage interest. In Fairfax County, Va., the savings could be similar
> 
> To determine whether owning is cheaper than renting in a specific neighborhood, pull up equivalent for-sale listings online, speak with a real estate agent, and use a rent-or-buy calculator to compare the monthly costs of renting and owning. If the monthly savings are significant, there are other compelling reasons to buy, says John Mulville, a senior vice president at Real Estate Economics, which tracks residential real estate data: Prices are low, and so are mortgage rates.

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## Steven Douglas

> As for ending up in an upside down situation, as I mentioned in my last post I only owe another $15,000 on it so that is incredibly unlikely.


I missed that part. You're actually paying down principle now, and will never, EVER be upside down, and with a fixed interest rate, you're sitting pretty.  Good for you, and hopefully you won't get hit by some pointy-head who figures out how to get to siphon off your equity through property taxes or increased HOA fees.  Otherwise, it's nothing at all for you to have enough PM's on hand to liquidate piecemeal in case of emergencies as you pay the remainder of the debt over time with ever-cheapening dollars.  

Good luck to you.

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## smokemonsc

> I missed that part. You're actually paying down principle now, and will never, EVER be upside down, and with a fixed interest rate, you're sitting pretty.  Good for you, and hopefully you won't get hit by some pointy-head who figures out how to get to siphon off your equity through property taxes or increased HOA fees.  Otherwise, it's nothing at all for you to have enough PM's on hand to liquidate piecemeal in case of emergencies as you pay the remainder of the debt over time with ever-cheapening dollars.  
> 
> Good luck to you.


I thought I'd chime in as I do all three things listed above (buy rentals, own my own condo, and purchased PMs):

In my area it is significantly cheaper to own than rent.  My condo costs me total (excluding electric) ~$1200/month and it would rent for $1,500/month.  However, the condo market in my area is very...interesting =p

With repairs though it comes about the same.  *So I would argue your opportunity cost is the following: Your down payment.*  You are locking a decent portion of your wealth in a non-income producing asset that depreciates and is ill-liquid.  I've obviously diversified my wealth in aspects that are supportive and yet not conflicting.

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## Bern

*Backwardation again bitchez*.  Feels like February 2011 all over again.

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## bobbyw24

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The surge in the U.S. Mints sales of American Eagle silver coins in January may signal an end to the bear market in the metal.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Mint sold 4.26 million ounces of the coins to authorized purchasers Jan. 3 through Jan. 10. At this pace, full-month deliveries may reach 14.2 million ounces, more than twice the record 6.422 million ounces sold in January 2011.

Silver futures fell 48 percent from April to December, more than double the 20 percent drop associated with the start of a bear market. Prices are up 6.9 percent this year. Silver may rise as high as $42.20 an ounce this year, according to the median of 41 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey last month.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...f-the-day.html

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## Brian4Liberty

> $27 bump!


The good old days (one month ago), when silver was at $27/oz...

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## Seraphim

A breather back down to about 30 is likely before another rocket move up. Hope so anyway, I just got some cash to buy a bit, wouldnt mind the savings .




> The good old days (one month ago), when silver was at $27/oz...

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## Brian4Liberty

> A breather back down to about 30 is likely before another rocket move up. Hope so anyway, I just got some cash to buy a bit, wouldnt mind the savings .


You never know. I don't see us back under $30 for a long time, barring extraordinary events. The big buying op came and went (they usually do with very little hype). When it gets back up to $40, we'll have three threads a day about it.

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## Bern

Sprott's PSLV tranche buying, US Mint sales of Eagles, ZIRP, QE to inifinity (as needed to hit inflation target), SLV physical metal raids, etc.

Very bullish.

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## presence

*The problem with silver...
*
*
FRAUD
*

 and why REAL *PHYSICAL* silver will go through the roof is because the market is being *FLOODED WITH FIAT SILVER.*  I think holding REAL silver at 30, 40, 50, even 150 is a good bet... because before long the market will figure out that "traded" silver certificates are totally BOGUS and are *not backed by anything*.  Thats when your silver coins are going to be worth a small fortune.  Depending on how long it takes for the market to wise up to the fraud of silver manipulation... I bet (REAL) silver (IN HAND) goes tenfold to $500++ if not a disneyland $5k and those BOGUS certificates that we call "silver" become worthless; just like the green back when this all collapses.  

The $#@! will hit the fan.

*
THE 
LARGEST 
FINANCIAL 
FRAUD
IN HUMAN 
HISTORY*


Google: 
silver manipulation Andrew Maguire JPM

Google:
silver* NAKED SHORT ORDER* 

*
"FOR EVERY 100 OUNCES IN TRADE there exist only ONE OUNCE in the VAULT"*

Repeat:

*COMEX SILVER IS NAKED 100:1
*
Andrew Maguire finally exposes systemic fraud by CFTC & JPMorgan 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLxoeLqQMlw
90k views 100% likes

xtranormal cartoon explaination:

*
Part 1- JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Explained*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI
*300k views nearly 100% positive "likes"*

"the higher the silver goes the more worthless the paper fiat $ is that the Ben Bernanke prints for free"
"when the BB needs to keep silver down, JPM is given paper to short the silver market"

Part 2-JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Explained
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E

Part 3 - Silver Manipulation Explained
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ

Part 4 - Silver and Gold Manipulation Explained
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h66R4U-Eybs

Part 5 - The Silver Saga Story Continues
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzyXn8t0plM

Part 6- The Paper Silver Manipulation Game at all time Highs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE

Part 7, The EPIC Weekend has Arrived
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJlzhnZMChY

Part 8 - The Gold Rush Currency Wars
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIUctQ8Wy4Q

*THE GIG IS UP!*

"stores of silver have multiple claims upon them"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment


GOT SILVER?  or a spastic colon?

----------


## stu2002

> You never know. I don't see us back under $30 for a long time, barring extraordinary events. The big buying op came and went (they usually do with very little hype). When it gets back up to $40, we'll have three threads a day about it.


We are over $30 now--what's next?

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## NACBA

Silver has been trading in a narrow range for about 3 months

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## oyarde

I feel pretty good about all of it I bought this year @ an avg of 27.06 . Still feel pretty good about what I bought in the 90's too .

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## stu2002

> I feel pretty good about all of it I bought this year @ an avg of 27.06 . Still feel pretty good about what I bought in the 90's too .


Hmm--how early in the 90s like 1993 when it was $3.50/oz.?

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## AmericasLastHope

> We are over $30 now--what's next?

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## oyarde

> Hmm--how early in the 90s like 1993 when it was $3.50/oz.?


 Slightly above , $3.50 was about what I was paying for Walking Liberty halves , graded Good from the teens and 1920 to 1930 Standing Liberty quarters graded Good , most of my dimes were purchased at silver $5 to $8 an oz. , paying spot. Five bucks for 14 silver dimes sounds good huh ?

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## oyarde

For whatever it is worth , I think  wheat , corn , soy beans and oats will rise as well ....

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## oyarde

This thread was posted , 4/30/11 , I think , around 4/26/11 , closing price was around $45.10 , probably , Friday's close , around $31.72 , so it is , about , what ? , 30% lower and only one direction to go , that I can imagine , which , is up....

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## Brian4Liberty

$29.44 silver today. 

What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?

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## oyarde

> $29.44 silver today. 
> 
> What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?


I go with the truck .

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## Seraphim

Truck. Lol.




> $29.44 silver today. 
> 
> What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?

----------


## Romulus

I was going to say truck too.

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## ronpaulfollower999

Looks like silver and bitcoin have reached parity. Interesting.

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## Zippyjuan

Looks like it is still working its way down (to who knows where) from its peak in 2011. 


http://www.monex.com/prods/silver_chart.html

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## Seraphim

http://silverstrategies.blogspot.ca/...ble-chart.html

Silver(gold) are at the "First sell off/bear trap" stage of this shindig (picture in the above link).

Look at a 15 year chart of silver. Aside from the all out deflationary collapse in 2007-2008 (where all assets save cash took a hit) the first real sell off/correction took place in two major rounds from 48 to 30. 

This is secular super bull and once it's all said and done, 2011-2012 will simply be shown as the correction/cooldown phase before the largest gains are made.

As an example:

http://www.zealllc.com/2004/au3stage.htm

There is a chart in there that shows the gold bull of the 1970's. Within that SECULAR bull market there was a CYCLICAL bear market from 1974-1976.

Yes, a roughly 2 year bear market within the massive secular bull.

No different this time in that sense. The difference this time is that the scope and magnitude of the secular bull in precious metals is orders of magnitude larger than the last time around. The forces driving it are much, much larger.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Note that the price of gold was pretty much rising along with the rate of price inflation (though not at the same rate- gold was rising faster). The bubble burst in 1980 when the Fed took actions to lower the rate of inflation (by letting interest rates go as high as 20% which briefly also led to double digit unemployment).  The price (and the inflaition rate) declined for the next 20+ years.

----------


## Seraphim

Well aware.

Also, gold outperformed inflation by a wide, wide margin in the 1970's.




> Note that the price of gold was pretty much rising along with the rate of price inflation (though not at the same rate- gold was rising faster). The bubble burst in 1980 when the Fed took actions to lower the rate of inflation (by letting interest rates go as high as 20% which briefly also led to double digit unemployment).  The price (and the inflaition rate) declined for the next 20+ years.

----------


## Zippyjuan

The price of gold was basically fixed at an artificial price compared to the dollar until 1972 when Nixon closed the "gold window". Once the restriction was lifted, it was free to move finally so yeah, it moved up.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> The good old days (one month ago), when silver was at $27/oz...


13 months later..... $29.44

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## Brian4Liberty

> 13 months later..... $29.44


Buying low and selling high in approximately 6 month cycles has worked pretty well the past few years.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> Buying low and selling high in approximately 6 month cycles has worked pretty well the past few years.


Not when you spent the last few years below the poverty level 'for the cause.'

----------


## Natural Citizen

Here's a good discussion.




Greg runs a very good web site, btw.

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## cubical

Silver manipulation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## devil21

> Note that the price of gold was pretty much rising along with the rate of price inflation (though not at the same rate- gold was rising faster). The bubble burst in 1980 when the Fed took actions to lower the rate of inflation (by letting interest rates go as high as 20% which briefly also led to double digit unemployment).  The price (and the inflaition rate) declined for the next 20+ years.


That's great and all but means nothing since the Fed won't move from ZIRP, much less 20%.

----------


## KevinR

I bought high, and now I'm buying low. No regrets!

----------


## matt0611

If I had more money laying around I'd buy in more now.

----------


## cbc58

I think anyone who is buying gold and silver is doing so on the belief that they will be able to store or increase the value of their dollars.  They better hope that:

a.) they sell it in a timely manner before the end of it's run-up and potential confiscation by govt., or;
b.) there is an established system to use it for the purchase of goods or services that they want/need.

I have personally tried to use it to purchase products and services by using the spot price but the adoption has been about
1 in 25.   The one time it was accepted was by someone who wanted the coins I had, which were Morgan dollars in very
good condition.   They accepted it at spot + a 10% premium because they wanted them for their collection.

----------


## Seraphim

This.

If interest rates on UST's go to just over 10%, the USG immediately becomes bankrupt as it will no longer be able to cover INTEREST costs on the debt.

That figure was 11.7% about to years ago but it's dropping as the debt goes parabolic.

This game is to destroy the debt by debauching the currency. Certain bubble aspects of the economy can and will burst, but not the inflation machine as a longstanding trend.

USG default = world war. USD devaluation = trade war. 

"Leaders" have chosen the latter with the hope it does amount to the former.




> That's great and all but means nothing since the Fed won't move from ZIRP, much less 20%.

----------


## Seraphim

This is not correct.

Some may be doing so, but most around these parts are storing gold/silver as a store of money until the new global credit/banking system is rolled out. It is coming, it's a matter of when, not if.

Most of us don't really care what the value of the metal is priced in these transient fiat currencies. 

Gold is MONEY. Currency is a bill of credit.

Look at the global system of banking and credit. It is FUNDEMENTALLY FRACTURED. Broken and on life support.

In such a scenario, where should your hard earned long term savings go? 

Unleveraged specie? Or leveraged debt obligations?

The choice is extremely simple.



> I think anyone who is buying gold and silver is doing so on the belief that they will be able to store or increase the value of their dollars.  They better hope that:
> 
> a.) they sell it in a timely manner before the end of it's run-up and potential confiscation by govt., or;
> b.) there is an established system to use it for the purchase of goods or services that they want/need.
> 
> I have personally tried to use it to purchase products and services by using the spot price but the adoption has been about
> 1 in 25.   The one time it was accepted was by someone who wanted the coins I had, which were Morgan dollars in very
> good condition.   They accepted it at spot + a 10% premium because they wanted them for their collection.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> As an atheist, I agree with the above sentiment


"Where the spirit of the Lord is -- there is liberty."

You agree with that, do you?

----------


## Dogsoldier

Well if it does go down I'm stocking up. Heres a thought....I wouldn't sell an oz of my silver for 50$....Its much more valuable to me then that. Market can do whatever it wants cause to me silver is soooooo much more valuable then a peice of paper.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> $29.44 silver today. 
> 
> What to do now? Back up the truck to buy under $30, or panic sell?


Buy, baby, buy!  

Bought my first silver a couple of weeks ago at ~$31.  Looking to buy more under 30 tomorrow.  It's like Christmas.  I'm ready for large rise before the end of the year.

----------


## cbc58

Anyone care to comment on this post:   http://www.econmatters.com/2013/01/w...-look-out.html  Says Schiff selling some gold...




> Some may be doing so, but most around these parts are storing gold/silver as a store of money until the new global credit/banking system is rolled out.


I think some are doing that, but many are buying some to try and make money... if we are being honest with each other.  The powers that be are not going to welcome private gold ownership if a gold-backed system emerges.. and if it looks like that is going to happen, I would bet that most who hold it would try and get out and into something else prior to conversion.  If I knew what that was I'd be sitting on a beach sipping pinacoladas right now...

----------


## GunnyFreedom

$28.70 kinda wishing I had FRNs to buy with right now.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> Buy, baby, buy!  
> 
> Bought my first silver a couple of weeks ago at ~$31.  Looking to buy more under 30 tomorrow.  It's like Christmas.  I'm ready for large rise before the end of the year.


I started buying at $14 and I'd still be buying now if'n I could.

----------


## ronpaulfollower999

I'm not planning on selling for a while, so I welcome this sale. Hopefully it'll last through the summer. $26 will be a very important number if we get there.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

$28.47 and falling...

----------


## Zippyjuan

> This.
> 
> If interest rates on UST's go to just over 10%, the USG immediately becomes bankrupt as it will no longer be able to cover INTEREST costs on the debt.
> 
> That figure was 11.7% about to years ago but it's dropping as the debt goes parabolic.
> 
> This game is to destroy the debt by debauching the currency. Certain bubble aspects of the economy can and will burst, but not the inflation machine as a longstanding trend.
> 
> USG default = world war. USD devaluation = trade war. 
> ...


I assume that UST means US Treasury notes?  They haven't been double digits since the 1980's.  But it would not take much of an increase in rates to cause the costs of servicing the debt (interest) to soar.  If the Treasury is wise, they should be selling as many long term notes (20- 30 years) and lock in these low rates for as long as they can.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

I'm dreadfully unhappy that I just had to sell 13oz AG to make car repairs after whacking a deer, but I have to visit all 100 counties in the next 3 months, and need my car operational.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Did they let you keep the meat? (Some states do- I have relatives in PA and they don't mind not having to clean up the carcass- or did is survive and get away?). That would help defray some of your costs with good meat to eat.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> Did they let you keep the meat? (Some states do- I have relatives in PA and they don't mind not having to clean up the carcass- or did is survive and get away?). That would help defray some of your costs with good meat to eat.


They would if I could have gotten to it.  It went over a 10 foot embankment at 2AM.  I went back at first light and couldn't find it.  Not that I could have done much, I've never cleaned a deer in my life.  I'd be all...

----------


## Zippyjuan

Sorry.  Those things can do some pretty serious damage to a car.  In the town I grew up in somebody was killed on their bicycle from a deer- bicycle coolision.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> Sorry.  Those things can do some pretty serious damage to a car.  In the town I grew up in somebody was killed on their bicycle from a deer- bicycle coolision.


Thanks, and sorry about the guy from your town.  Deer can certainly be deadly.

I'm usually very good at avoiding them.  I've only been hit by a deer once before in my life, and that was 23 years ago.  And I didn't hit it, it hit me.  In the side.

This time, the thing jumped out of a ditch right in the middle of a hairy s-curve and went right in front of me.  I slammed on the brakes as hard as I could, but my car has ABS.  (I can stop faster *WITHOUT* ABS)

Without ABS I might have managed to avoid it entirely, adding another half second before impact.

But I hit this critter HARD.  The deer went airborne and was doing a flat spin, launched off another 30 foot off the other side of the road and down the aforementioned embankment.  It was pretty bad.  And it's a lot of damage. 

If I were to go to a normal body shop, it'd cost me $4000 or better.  Instead, I can get parts and do the work, and be back to normal for around $700

But I did NOT want to sell $700 in silver when it's in a dip like it is now.  So I sold just enough to do the mechanical repairs (headlights, hood) and I'll worry about the fenders later.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Last year my Dad's car got hit (by another car while he and my Mom were going home from visiting my brother) and was totaled.  He had to sell some of his PMs to get a new (used) one to replace it (insurance didn't cover everything) so I understand what you are going through.

----------


## torchbearer

> They would if I could have gotten to it. It went over a 10 foot embankment at 2AM. I went back at first light and couldn't find it. Not that I could have done much, I've never cleaned a deer in my life. I'd be all...


pointers-
cut behind the knees of the hind legs, there is a tendon there with skin gaping toward the leg.
this is where you will use hook(for each leg) and chain(rope). toss the chain over a tree branch and raise the deer.
cut the skin in the creases, like leg pits, arm pits, around tail.
once all seams are made, grab hold of hide and pull down.
that will remove hide from the animal.
afterwards, if the animal isn't field dressed- you should take a sharp hooked knife, starting the bottom(the bottom side of neck and cut up toward the breastplate.
you will need a saw to cut the breastplate.
from there, continue upwards until you can take all the innards at once and remove from deer. (some people will use a tub or bucket of some sort at the bottom to collect and dispose)
from there, you are basically done. remove the head unless you are really hard up for food.
quarter and store.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> I started buying at $14 and I'd still be buying now if'n I could.


Alas, I wasn't economically aware when it was $14/oz.  What's more I wouldn't have had much money to buy with.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> Did they let you keep the meat? (Some states do- I have relatives in PA and they don't mind not having to clean up the carcass- or did is survive and get away?). That would help defray some of your costs with good meat to eat.


Lol

People make fun of WV because that's legal.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> Thanks, and sorry about the guy from your town.  Deer can certainly be deadly.
> 
> I'm usually very good at avoiding them.  I've only been hit by a deer once before in my life, and that was 23 years ago.  And I didn't hit it, it hit me.  In the side.
> 
> This time, the thing jumped out of a ditch right in the middle of a hairy s-curve and went right in front of me.  I slammed on the brakes as hard as I could, but my car has ABS.  (I can stop faster *WITHOUT* ABS)
> 
> Without ABS I might have managed to avoid it entirely, adding another half second before impact.
> 
> But I hit this critter HARD.  The deer went airborne and was doing a flat spin, launched off another 30 foot off the other side of the road and down the aforementioned embankment.  It was pretty bad.  And it's a lot of damage. 
> ...


I find that interesting.  How does one stop faster without ABS?  I had an '87 oldsmobile and the thing would slide at the smallest tap of the brakes no matter what the weather.  My new Soob does a lot better with ABS.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Silver and gold moving up today. Was the bottom yesterday?

----------


## ctiger2

> Silver and gold moving up today. Was the bottom yesterday?


It's entirely possible. However, the Ron Rosen chart shows the low range for this move has until 6/30/13 to be made. The range for new highs to be made starts Sept '13 and runs through July '14. So we're getting damn close to the breakout starting. I'd guess this move should take silver to $100, then trade back down to $50 before the next move up to $100+. The Silver market will price many people out on this next move. Get it cheap while you still can.

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> I find that interesting.  How does one stop faster without ABS?  I had an '87 oldsmobile and the thing would slide at the smallest tap of the brakes no matter what the weather.  My new Soob does a lot better with ABS.


If you know how to modulate brakes properly you will always stop faster with regular brakes than ABS.  That 87 Olds if fitted with ABS would have taken even longer to stop than using a proper brake modulation technique on non-ABS brakes.

The problem you have is that electronic or hydraulic ABS use a 'theoretical' maximum rather than an 'actual' maximum, and ABS modulation is mechanical not intuitive.

So in ABS your brake pressure goes to 90% max and then modulates precisely between 93% and 85% in quarter second intervals.

Doing it PHYSICALLY on regular brakes you can take it up to 98% max and then modulate with your foot between 95% and 97% in random intervals dictated bu road traction and conditions.

While it's true that someone who does not know how to do a proper emergency stop with regular brakes will always do worse than ABS, it is also true that someone who DOES know how to do a proper emergency stop with regular brakes will always outperform ABS.

----------


## PaulConventionWV

> If you know how to modulate brakes properly you will always stop faster with regular brakes than ABS.  That 87 Olds if fitted with ABS would have taken even longer to stop than using a proper brake modulation technique on non-ABS brakes.
> 
> The problem you have is that electronic or hydraulic ABS use a 'theoretical' maximum rather than an 'actual' maximum, and ABS modulation is mechanical not intuitive.
> 
> So in ABS your brake pressure goes to 90% max and then modulates precisely between 93% and 85% in quarter second intervals.
> 
> Doing it PHYSICALLY on regular brakes you can take it up to 98% max and then modulate with your foot between 95% and 97% in random intervals dictated bu road traction and conditions.
> 
> While it's true that someone who does not know how to do a proper emergency stop with regular brakes will always do worse than ABS, it is also true that someone who DOES know how to do a proper emergency stop with regular brakes will always outperform ABS.


How do you tell the difference between 95% and 97%?  When do you use 95 and when do you use 97?

----------


## GunnyFreedom

> How do you tell the difference between 95% and 97%?  When do you use 95 and when do you use 97?


You don't.  Those were just examples.  Who knows what the real numbers are.  It's all seat of the pants, feeling, intuition, and experience.  

Ask anyone experienced at performance driving.  I bet you they will all, or almost all say the exact same thing I am.

----------


## ClydeCoulter

> You don't.  Those were just examples.  Who knows what the real numbers are.  It's all seat of the pants, feeling, intuition, and experience.  
> 
> Ask anyone experienced at performance driving.  I bet you they will all, or almost all say the exact same thing I am.


Yep, I hate those dang ABS brakes.  I don't know how many times they have gotten me into trouble. They drive me crazy.  I hope I never get into an accident with someone over these things.

I have tried to get them to stop their crap by pumping, doesn't work.  I want my control back.  And like you say, it's a "seat of the pants" thing with real brakes, but it works.  Trying to tell someone who has never experienced using them well is like trying to tell a person that has never driven a stick shift how you know when to shift and use that other pedal.

----------


## ClydeCoulter

Speaking of silver, what is IRA Approved silver? (http://www.apmex.com/Category/1238/I..._Products.aspx )




> IRA-Acceptable Silver Products - In the midst of the various social, political, and financial factors that continuouslyMore impact today's global economy, an IRA based on the value of silver provides some financial reassurance and stability. A more secure option for investment opportunities than stocks, bonds, or other forms of investments backed by paper,an IRA backed by silver gives you the opportunity to invest in an account that can never lose all of its value. 
> 
> Choose from an extensive variety of IRA-acceptable silver items to begin setting up an investment plan that will hold its value for years to come. 
> 
> To view available IRA-acceptable silver bars, silver coins, and silver rounds, click on the image representing the silver products of your interest:


The reason I ask, is that I have a chance (1 week left) to cash out my retirement account (pension) with my previous employer or roll over all/part to an IRA. hmmm

----------


## ClydeCoulter

> Speaking of silver, what is IRA Approved silver? (http://www.apmex.com/Category/1238/I..._Products.aspx )
> 
> 
> 
> The reason I ask, is that I have a chance (1 week left) to cash out my retirement account (pension) with my previous employer or roll over all/part to an IRA. hmmm


Hello?  Anyone know how this works?  Do you invest in a particular type of silver that then is vaulted for you and you are issued an IRA account based on those vaulted commodities? Is it then Physical Metal stored for you? Wassup?  Whats the risk asside from PM prices?

----------


## ronpaulfollower999

> Hello?  Anyone know how this works?  Do you invest in a particular type of silver that then is vaulted for you and you are issued an IRA account based on those vaulted commodities? Is it then Physical Metal stored for you? Wassup?  *Whats the risk asside from PM prices?*


Confiscation from the Feds. 

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it."

----------


## GunnyFreedom

I was under the impression that "IRA Approved" silver was more about the mint mark and assay certification than anything else, and for that you pay a premium over spot.  I could be mistaken however, as I've never dealt with "IRA Approved" bullion. Yes, however, just like a regular IRA it would be held by the IRA company and not physical metal yourself.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Here is some info on the topic: http://www.ehow.com/how_5477608_crea...nvestment.html




> *Instructions*
>  1  Identify the silver coins and bullion allowed to be invested in IRAs. These assets may be newly purchased or existing assets that will be transferred via rollovers from another eligible investment account. Silver coins and bullion are permitted assets. *The IRA rules require the silver assets must be at least 99.9% pure silver for inclusion.* Therefore silver coins and bullion must be 99.9% pure silver to be eligible for IRA investments.
> 
>  2  Plan to open an account with an IRA custodian for the silver coins and bullion. *The silver assets can't be held at home or at a bank safe deposit box if these are used for IRA investment.* The rules require that the coins and bullion be held at an independent third party for safekeeping. Some of the silver dealers also offer custodian services through their subsidiaries. Decide how much to invest in the silver IRA account.
> 
> 3  Look for reputable precious metal dealers and custodians doing business for a long time. Follow the custodian instructions for opening a new IRA account, for rolling over precious metal assets from other accounts and for redemption of silver coins and bullion in your IRA account. The custodian will provide monthly or quarterly account statements for you to monitor account holdings.
> 
>  4  Check the precious metals IRA rules for any changes annually. Sometimes these rules are amended by the government allowing new type of metals for IRA investments. Also, review the maximum annual contribution allowed for IRA investment for any changes.
> 
> ...

----------


## ClydeCoulter

Okay, but with an IRA silver/gold acct how do they make their money (the storage and accounting)?  I'll have to talk to APMEX tomorrow.

_edit: maybe they make loans against it?_

----------


## Zippyjuan

Probably charge some form of custodial or other fees.

http://www.ehow.com/how_7495182_comp...dian-fees.html



> Ask the representative what the basic account fees are, regardless of transactions. You are asking what the annual custodial, set-up and termination fees are. Some accounts have flat fees while others, like many real estate IRAs, take a percentage of the IRA value called a wrap fee. Some custodians waive these fees if you have a minimum balance maintained in the account.

----------


## devil21

Isn't the MF Global collapse a perfect example of why not to turn your metals over to an investment firm for "safe keeping"?

----------


## ClydeCoulter

> Isn't the MF Global collapse a perfect example of why not to turn your metals over to an investment firm for "safe keeping"?


That did cross my mind, and it was going to be my next opinion question here once I learned more about the IRA Silver account (is it with APMEX or a 3rd party, etc).  Maybe I should ask Celente?

----------


## oyarde

> Here is some info on the topic: http://www.ehow.com/how_5477608_crea...nvestment.html


So really just like ordinary paper, it  is 99.9 % but you do not have it.

----------


## Zippyjuan

So it would seem.  Might as well have it in silver stocks.

----------


## oyarde

Thanks for the info Zip , I always thought I would get around to looking at that , but had not.

----------


## XTreat

Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.

----------


## oyarde

> Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.


Makes sense to me.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Silver closed over $29 today. Last week was probably a (relative) bottom. We shall see...

----------


## matt0611

> Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.


This. ^^^

I'm not really sure why anyone would want to put gold or silver in an IRA...

----------


## oyarde

> This. ^^^
> 
> I'm not really sure why anyone would want to put gold or silver in an IRA...


I would not , defeats the purpose of having it.

----------


## oyarde

> Silver closed over $29 today. Last week was probably a (relative) bottom. We shall see...


I figured last summer @ $26 was the bottom , forever ....

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> I figured last summer @ $26 was the bottom , forever ....


Seems to be a lot of talk about hitting that $26 again this summer. We'll see.

----------


## oyarde

> Seems to be a lot of talk about hitting that $26 again this summer. We'll see.


Then I would buy some more,most of mine , probably 1/2  below $10 , other half, below $27 , so , I am happy.Bought a little bit of gold a few days ago.Some copper today.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

$29.40 now. There are some buyers today.

----------


## fatjohn

First day of the new bull market in metals.
Tell others I told so.

----------


## flaversaver

> First day of the new bull market in metals.
> Tell others I told so.


So far you're wrong. I hope the other holds true however.

----------


## Carson

I remember once when I was young noting that the price of silver was very low during the depression and wondered why everyone didn't buy it. Someone mentioned because no one had any money.

_But going back to the Great Depression in the 1930's, silver prices were 25 cents per ounce, and the U.S. mint paid that to the miners, yet turned that silver into coinage worth $1.40 per ounce, as there is 0.72 of an ounce of silver in $1 face value of 10 dimes or 4 quarters minted 1964 or earlier. _ 

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/rapture.html

The miners didn't. ?????


Anyway we saw the housing bubble burst. Most recently I thinking I saw inflation get to the point that the money we were working for no longer covered the cost of our business operations. I saw layoffs and hours cut. The morning commute to a sever cut in traffic.

I think that cutback caused a lot of loan defaults. I think that in turn caused our currency to regain some of its value. Silver prices fell. I'm assuming other commodities and stocks did as well.

It then became worth it for some to increase hours. Others to hire. Traffic has picked up in the morning. I thinking another round of inflation will yank the slates right out from under us. 

http://www.silverseek.com/quotes/5silver.php

I think the big pullback in this one was the housing market.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI


Anyway it seems a dilemma for me. On the one hand I should be charting all commodities and stocks and following them as they twist and turn with each other like the way DNA twist and turns. Buying the lows selling the highs.

On the other hand it looks like the little recent gains we've made are going to get stopped in their tracks. 

I think *only* restoring sound money can stop the inflation. Its gone past the point of regaining some control through government spending. Even if we did have their hearts and minds to do so their are still those outside of the country with access to the fake money presses.

Are we the new miners?

----------


## Carson

> They would if I could have gotten to it.  It went over a 10 foot embankment at 2AM.  I went back at first light and couldn't find it.  Not that I could have done much, I've never cleaned a deer in my life.  I'd be all...


I've had help in the past with such things. The advice that really set me free and allowed me to get in up to my elbows came from a friend as he was in there doing my work for me. *He said what he does is cut out all the parts he doesn't want to eat.*


P.S. 100 countries?

P.S.P.S. Let me know if any of the women are asking about me.

----------


## ronpaulfollower999

I think we're due for a rise in silver and gold. Maybe 1,800 and 35.

----------


## qh4dotcom

OP was almost correct two years after this post was created 

Silver has fallen about 60% since the $50 high....not quite 66%





> The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.
> 
> Gold's real return: aero
> Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).
> 
> There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):
> 
> The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV  ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.
> 
> ...

----------


## ronpaulfollower999

So 2 or 3 more dollars to go....

----------


## Brian4Liberty

And the long-term Silver Prediction Award goes to Alex Dumortier and bobbyw24! 

Congratulations. 

It took over three years, but the original prediction has come to pass. And overshoot to the downside it did. Yippee.




> Silver could fall by two-thirds!
> Silver prices are now well ahead of their historical average (the red line). The chart doesn't do justice to the extent of the gap that has opened up with respect to a fair price since it ends on the average price of silver during the first quarter of this year (roughly $32), whereas daily prices are now close to $50. *In fact, the price of silver would need to fall by nearly two-thirds to get back to its long-term average of $18/ ounce -- not to mention that markets typically overshoot*.
> 
> http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx

----------


## Brian4Liberty

What a long thread, just for fun, here's some select quotes. Most of these are from 2011.

It's always darkest before the dawn. Are we there yet?




> If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity!  Bring it on!!


It's on.




> At some point, this statement, "*Silver Falls by 66%*", will be true; 
> How long will it take? 1,2,5, or 10 more years?
> The Bear market in Silver lasted over 20 years.What if the 66% drop happens (for example) *after* you sell your silver for $401/OZ?


It took over three years.




> Exactly -- buying opportunity!
> 
> It is difficult to make money in the metals market if you are a short term trader or an emotional trader because the peaks are often sharp and the troughs can be extended.  But if you are consistent and buy on dips for the purpose of holding the asset you will be fine.


Buy low, sell high. Easy concept. Timing is extremely difficult.




> I like the trend... means I can buy more for my monthly purchase!


True,




> So where's the bottom going to be?
> 
> IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) *takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz.*


And what a long, slow crash it has been, with a bounce in between.




> If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.


Almost time to buy?




> This.
> 
> 29-32$ silver is back up the truck time.


Do you have another truck to fill?




> This.
> 
> It's been a while since I could really afford to add to my silver position. Now that I'm just weeks away from being able to make a significant (for me) purchase...well I hope it falls to 25$ !! 
> ...
> Bring on the knife like drop to 20$.
> ...
> This time around, 16-22$ silver will be very much like 8-9$ silver in 2008. STRONG strategic buy point.
> 
> I`m not convinced it will even go that low. It might though.


At we there yet?




> $20 was my worst case scenario too. Will we see the worst case though? Sentiment is pretty negative all around, which usually means buy to contrarians.
> 
> Relative (to other fiat currencies) *US dollar strength* is all that worries me for the metal price in US dollars. That usually levels out at some point. Are we there yet? Or does the dollar have a significant rise left vs the Euro?


And the dollar continues higher...how far will it go?




> *I hope it does go down to $20* (and gold to $1450 or whatever) so I have time to make more FRNs and buy more for less.
> 
> The dollar is temporarily perceived to be strong, the economy is temporarily perceived to be growing...
> 
> Deflation before inflation...


Your wish has been granted.

----------


## CaptainAmerica

I don't really care if it "falls" right now, the value of silver is in its conductivity,malleability , brazing ability, it is a useful metal all around and for that a good bartering resource to hold onto

----------


## William Tell

> I don't really care if it "falls" right now, the value of silver is in its conductivity,malleability , brazing ability, it is a useful metal all around and for that a good bartering resource to hold onto


I care, I wanna buy a bunch at $4.00 oz

----------


## WillieKamm

He took a lot of heat and he was right. For the moment it looks like there is no floor for silver. Some will still beat the drum for Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyper inflation. As for me, I've learned my lesson. I still have my metals and will keep them but do not look for PMs to be mine, yours or anyone's savior if and when TSHTF.

----------


## Peter4Paul2016

> Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.


When you hold a gold IRA, the metals are held in a self-directed IRA.  The IRS does not know details of what you're holding in the self-directed IRA.  They would only know the total value...

----------


## Peter4Paul2016

Silver's @ $17 right now...  http://goldsilverinvestments.net/rea...-metal-prices/

----------


## Seraphim

As a matter of fact, Brian - I am looking into making my single largest purchase ever (silver).

----------


## Seraphim

Unfortunately in my area (Toronto and surrounding area) many silver products are sold out and the others have huge premiums. It seems a lot of people are buying these prices.

----------


## oyarde

> Unfortunately in my area (Toronto and surrounding area) many silver products are sold out and the others have huge premiums. It seems a lot of people are buying these prices.


I have been able to get some 90 % locally in dimes and halves for spot , but , yeah , Eagles and dollars have a premium.

----------


## Tod

this guy is saying basically the same thing Harvey Organ said on Greg's show not too long ago.....that the physical metal shortage will come to a head by year's end.

----------


## jmdrake

> He took a lot of heat and he was right. For the moment it looks like there is no floor for silver. Some will still beat the drum for Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyper inflation. As for me, I've learned my lesson. I still have my metals and will keep them but do not look for PMs to be mine, yours or anyone's savior if and when TSHTF.


Somebody unban him already!

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> As a matter of fact, Brian - I am looking into making my single largest purchase ever (silver).







> Unfortunately in my area (Toronto and surrounding area) many silver products are sold out and the others have huge premiums. It seems a lot of people are buying these prices.


Ever buy online? They seem to have stock, premium is about the same as usual.

An example:
https://www.amagimetals.com/silver/coins

----------


## TheCount

> this guy is saying basically the same thing Harvey Organ said on Greg's show not too long ago.....that the physical metal shortage will come to a head by year's end.


The same argument that's been made since about 2009.  Still hasn't happened.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> this guy is saying basically the same thing Harvey Organ said on Greg's show not too long ago.....that the physical metal shortage will come to a head by year's end.





> The same argument that's been made since about 2009.  Still hasn't happened.


The interesting part of this debate is the fact that the government is the producer of the product (silver coins) in question. Silver Eagles and Maple Leafs are the coins of choice, produced by government. If they could manipulate the paper price, they could also manipulate the physical prices, as long as they can produce enough coins. If it were pure manipulation, and as long as they had a physical silver supply, they can charge any price they want, even flood the market at a loss.

And another option is unthinkable...are they manipulating the content of their coins? It would be incredibly easy and inexpensive for an independent assay of a Silver Eagle. Does anyone do that regularly?

And then there is the option that there is plenty of physical silver, and they can produce enough Eagles to meet demand forever.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Coins account for only a small percent of global silver demand. When the US Mint needs metal for coins, it buys it on the market and adds a profit margin from that cost plus their production costs.  They react to the world price of silver (and gold).  They don't determine it. 



https://www.silverinstitute.org/site...silver-demand/

----------


## Chester Copperpot

> Coins account for only a small percent of global silver demand. When the US Mint needs metal for coins, it buys it on the market and adds a profit margin from that cost plus their production costs.  They react to the world price of silver (and gold).  They don't determine it. 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.silverinstitute.org/site...silver-demand/


Theyre committing fraud by selling a $1 silver coin for anything more than $1.

They should make the face amount $20, or $50. Something more in line with reality.

----------


## TheCount

> The interesting part of this debate is the fact that the government is the producer of the product (silver coins) in question. Silver Eagles and Maple Leafs are the coins of choice, produced by government. If they could manipulate the paper price, they could also manipulate the physical prices, as long as they can produce enough coins. If it were pure manipulation, and as long as they had a physical silver supply, they can charge any price they want, even flood the market at a loss.


The question being, of course, why?


Also, lots of things are possible, but not likely or actually happening.

----------


## reduen

Question is, can silver ever really be worth nothing? For me the answer is no....

----------


## Zippyjuan

Will it be worth nothing? Probably not. Can it be worth less than it is now?  Yes, it can.  Or it can be worth more.  Nobody can be sure.

----------


## acptulsa

> Will it be worth nothing? Probably not. Can it be worth less than it is now?  Yes, it can.  Or it can be worth more.  Nobody can be sure.


Will the Federal Reserve Note be worth nothing?  Maybe.  Can it be worth less than it is now?  Obviously.  Can it be worth more?  That would contradict its _entire_ history.  On that last one I think we _can_ be sure:  No way.

Theoretically the Fed could shut down the presses for a while, and it could gain value.  But that will remain a theory because greed rules the banks and the banks own the Fed.

So, which is best?  Swimming with the inside trader sharks?  Putting your FRNs in the bank and watching them shrink?  Or speculating that the Fed Greed will eventually destroy that thing they call the dollar?

Time will tell...

----------


## TheCount

> So, which is best?  Swimming with the inside trader sharks?  Putting your FRNs in the bank and watching them shrink?  Or speculating that the Fed Greed will eventually destroy that thing they call the dollar?


Speculating that it could eventually happen and saying that it will definitely happen SOON are two completely different things.

Likewise, EVENTUALLY the United States will no longer exist in their current form.  That's absolute, given an infinite amount of time.  Planning for it to happen this year is not going to be profitable for you.

----------


## NACBA

I still cannot believe how low Silver has fallen.

I loaded up at $20 and am wondering if I should buy more

----------


## Dforkus

> First day of the new bull market in metals.
> Tell others I told so.


you said so

----------


## Zippyjuan

Gold  has dropped nearly $30 an ounce since the Fed announcement as of right now- almost exactly $1200 an ounce.

----------


## oyarde

> Gold  has dropped nearly $30 an ounce since the Fed announcement as of right now- almost exactly $1200 an ounce.


I can work with that .

----------


## JK/SEA

i'm going to start investing in paper...

----------


## oyarde

> i'm going to start investing in paper...


Not me

----------


## JK/SEA

> Not me


ahh, i see...ink then..

will consider ink as my retirement fund investment....ftw...

----------


## JK/SEA

just noticed the OP was banned awhile ago....geez.....really.....has a good thread and is banned....why?

----------


## ctiger2

> just noticed the OP was banned awhile ago....geez.....really.....has a good thread and is banned....why?


Anti-semite?

----------


## osan

> In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue.  It's not that metals are "accreting value".  It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing.  The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days.  Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.





> Lol yup.
> 
> Same thing could be said for anything:
> 
> "Why would oil, a commodity with no yield -- accrete value?"
> 
> Some people are so ignorant of economics and prices, its so sad.


Both posts make excellent points, but they do not take into account the circumstance under which such commodities actually do accrete value.

What you both were addressing was the monetary inflation aspect.  Silver, for example and all else equal, retains it market value while the currency declines.  That is clearly no accretion of value.

However, market values for silver can in fact rise even with perfect money as the only currency due to increased demand.

If, for example, a superconducting medium were invented that would operate up to, say, the boiling point of water at standard pressure, you can bet you hide that silver would accrete staggering value.  The same might be said for any other comparatively rare commodity.  But even sand, were it to be the magic ingredient in the next wave of quantum advances that everyone in the world will want, its market value would rise.

So always bear in mind the two disparate foundational bases for rises in apparent value: money inflation and increased demand.  Same outward appearance; totally and mutually alien foundations and, often, results.

----------


## osan

> If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.


Well, here's your chance.

----------


## TheCount

> Silver, for example and all else equal, retains it market value while the currency declines.  That is clearly no accretion of value.
> 
> However, market values for silver can in fact rise even with perfect money as the only currency due to increased demand.


Also, changes in supply.

----------


## NACBA

*Precious metals weaker as gold and silver price drop*  MORNING REPORT - See more at:

http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-anal....fHgxK2wy.dpuf

----------


## NACBA

SIVLER PLUNGES BELOW $30 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MONTHS.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS BUYING OPPORTUNITY.!!!!
LOCK IN YOUR PRICE WHEN YOU ORDER FROM APMEX

When you buy Silver from APMEX, the price listed is the price you pay (not including shipping)  locked in at the time of your order. There are no commissions and no hidden fees. That means you can take maximum advantage of the recent price pullback in Silver to buy your favorite items.
*DON'T MISS THIS BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN SILVER*

----------


## CaptainAmerica



----------


## Dforkus

> SIVLER PLUNGES BELOW $30 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MONTHS.
> TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS BUYING OPPORTUNITY.!!!!
> LOCK IN YOUR PRICE WHEN YOU ORDER FROM APMEX
> 
> When you buy Silver from APMEX, the price listed is the price you pay (not including shipping)  locked in at the time of your order. There are no commissions and no hidden fees. That means you can take maximum advantage of the recent price pullback in Silver to buy your favorite items.
> *DON'T MISS THIS BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN SILVER*


I just stopped by the Toyota Dealership, I asked the nice man who greeted me if now was a good time to buy a Corrola, lucky me, it is!

I then stopped by a real estate agent and asked if now was a good time to buy a house, lucky me, it is!

I then stopped by a different agent and asked if now was a good time to sell my house, it is!, the stars must be aligning.

----------


## Lucille

"Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves." — Norm Franz

(Some old threads have been bumped lately, and while I miss so many people either gone or banned, I sure as hell don't miss the OP *boobyw24*.)

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Wages falling, metals falling, oil falling, gas falling, stocks falling... is it deflation time?

----------


## NoOneButPaul

> Wages falling, metals falling, oil falling, gas falling, stocks falling... is it deflation time?


It sure is... and we all know what happens next... gigantic crash and more printing... rinse and repeat until hyperinflation or they finally decide to man up and default on the debt.

----------


## DamianTV

Replacing our current Fiat Currency with another banker controlled world Fiat Currency is an ultimate goal, which means a planned dollar collapse.  It just depends where we are on their time table.

----------


## oyarde

> Wages falling, metals falling, oil falling, gas falling, stocks falling... is it deflation time?


Ammo , Nat Gas , diesel , pork bellies , beef  look fairly steady .

----------


## Dforkus

> Ammo , Nat Gas , diesel , pork bellies , beef  look fairly steady .


Natural Gas is under 4$ a therm.. which is dirt cheap, corn is still fairly cheap, diesel is falling, just like gasoline, although winter supply chain realities mean it doesn't fall as fast as gasoline, it is still falling.. It's through the 3 dollar barrier here in the Atlanta area.

Natural Gas, gasoline, diesel, corn: these core products, in some combination are involved in the production and/or consumption of nearly every good or service sold in the economy.

I know some people like to hold on to the idea that there is some conspiracy of secret, runaway inflation and dollar devaluation in the economy like Linus believes in the great pumpkin, but it's just not there...

Maybe someday... sure, predicting the future is a difficult business, and I'm not very good at it.. 

But I am good (reasonably) at looking at economic data dispassionately, without warping it to fit some internal version of how things are, or to fit some previous prediction of a future that I made that was obviously wrong...

----------


## NACBA



----------


## oyarde

> Natural Gas is under 4$ a therm.. which is dirt cheap, corn is still fairly cheap, diesel is falling, just like gasoline, although winter supply chain realities mean it doesn't fall as fast as gasoline, it is still falling.. It's through the 3 dollar barrier here in the Atlanta area.
> 
> Natural Gas, gasoline, diesel, corn: these core products, in some combination are involved in the production and/or consumption of nearly every good or service sold in the economy.
> 
> I know some people like to hold on to the idea that there is some conspiracy of secret, runaway inflation and dollar devaluation in the economy like Linus believes in the great pumpkin, but it's just not there...
> 
> Maybe someday... sure, predicting the future is a difficult business, and I'm not very good at it.. 
> 
> But I am good (reasonably) at looking at economic data dispassionately, without warping it to fit some internal version of how things are, or to fit some previous prediction of a future that I made that was obviously wrong...


I could go for some deflation , but I am not hopeful in energy and groceries to see things other than where things are now .

----------


## NACBA

I think it really is time to buy now.

----------


## NACBA

In 2014, silver once again suffered a substantial loss, following up a 36% crash in prices during 2013 with more double-digit percentage declines. Yet even though investors have had to live through a crushing precious-metals market environment during the past two years, many investors now believe that the price of silver in 2015 could finally bounce higher and give bullion owners some long-awaited relief. Let's look more closely at what's moving silver prices, and how those factors are likely to affect silver prices in 2015 and beyond.

Can the price of silver in 2015 really rise?

Silver offers a unique mix of attributes of both precious and industrial metals. On one hand, silver has traditionally moved closely with gold, given the two metals' historical use in monetary systems around the world. Yet, to a much greater extent than gold, silver has many industrial uses, and industrial demand gives silver a more concrete connection to the health of the global economy than gold.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...ce-higher.aspx

----------


## Dogsoldier

Well what is the lowest silver could go? 

Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?

It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.

----------


## NACBA

> Well what is the lowest silver could go? 
> 
> Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?
> 
> It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.


It was $7.00 or so in 2005 and $3.50 in 1993 when Clinton took office 

So yes it could but will it?

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Well what is the lowest silver could go? 
> 
> Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?
> 
> It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.


That's OK. Experts don't know either- otherwise they would all be billionaires. They only way to know a high or low price is by looking in the past and see where the peak occured. Nobody knows what it will be in the future.  Some think its recent price moves look like a bubble which still needs to deflate more lie we saw with housing prices. (yes, I am one but do not claim any "expertise"). 



http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_ch...rly_graphs.plx

----------


## Dogsoldier

Well in that case its not a good time to buy...lol

Even if its gets down to 3.50 it will still be selling at 10 or 15$.

----------


## oyarde

> Well in that case its not a good time to buy...lol
> 
> Even if its gets down to 3.50 it will still be selling at 10 or 15$.


It will not go to $3 , but if it did , you could buy none for that .That is my guess ,look at what gold really goes for now ....

----------


## Dforkus

I think the commodity sell off has a little more to go; 10-20% on silver 10-15% gold is my wag...

I have a small hobby stock trading acount aside from my 401ks; When the dividends come in next February, I may considered plowing the cash into some silver eagles. That would be the first time I bought since I got some on the front side of the recent bubble at around 22

I think oil is going to bottom at 50, and natural gas is going to bottom around 3.00, the big move down today in natural gas (which took it damn near 3) might have been a classic capitulation moment there actually.. My advice for oil and gas is unchanged, don't play the commodity yourself, that's a billionare's game.  Play the commodity through best of breed corps and MLPs.

----------


## Peter4Paul2016

Now is an excellent time to purchase more silver (and gold).  As soon as our "recovering" economy shows any indication of weakness... the house of cards will come falling and precious metals will rise again.  Will it be a Peter Schiff style collapse? I don't know...  But weakness in the stock market in 2015 will boost our confidence in metals.

Gold & Silver Charts 

I love corrections and price dips - if prices continued upwards beyond 2011 prices, I wouldn't be able to buy more.  Let the scared investors jump in and out of favor with metals. I'm buying at a discount and I know I'm good for the long term.

----------


## NACBA

* Gold jumped more than 1.5 percent on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank announced it was abandoning its ceiling against the euro.*

The Swiss franc soared almost 30 percent on the move, which caught global markets by surprise.

Elsewhere, Asian equities rose and the dollar regained its footing, dulling demand for the safe-haven metal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102338987

----------


## NACBA

Silver over $20 is Insanity

----------


## NACBA

Silver is so confounding

----------


## Bossobass

> Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:
> 
> *In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100.* 
> 
> Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?
> 
> Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.
> 
> Bosso


Bump and quote for reference^^

Here's a chart of the USDX laid over a composite chart of Silver from my post to last month or so ago:



Crudely done, yes, but the trend is still obvious (or should be). As I said then, I wasn't betting the $ would ever hit 100 again, but, as I also said then, that's the fun of it.

The whole ballgame is the when of it. For now, I'm gladly trading my USD for silver, USDX notwithstanding.

----------


## NACBA

Will this $#@! ever bounce back?  Damnit APMEX --quit showing your ads here telling me that THIS is the perfect time to buy--you said that at $30/oz.

----------


## edward222

No one can really predict if the silver will really go down by %66.
But if that will really happen,
many will surely buy silver,
and many will keep their silver.

----------


## NACBA

> No one can really predict if the silver will really go down by %66.
> But if that will really happen,
> many will surely buy silver,
> and many will keep their silver.


Sure they did--when this was posted Silver was at like $40/Oz and foolish Kool Aid drinkers held on since advisors told them to sit tight=FOOLS

----------


## phonetic lee

> There is no reason for investors to  expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with  no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it  even as a stable store of value.





> ... Kool Aid drinkers ... FOOLS


It's always nice to know that if I buy something like IBM or Walmart and it goes down, I simply misjudged or made a mistake. But if I'm wrong about silver, I'm an imbecile who needs to be yelled at.

As the author notes, silver is a store of value rather than an investment. But I think the complaint about volatility is selective.

As an investment, I own shares of silver producing companies. There's nothing controversial about owning stocks, and if I can identify underpricing of silver (obviously a big "if"), then the producers are likely underpriced as well. 

At the moment, prices are suffering an end-of-month smash, offering enhanced bottom-hunting opportunities

----------


## TheCount

Haven't the silver miners fared even worse than silver itself?

----------


## phonetic lee

Yes, miners have severely underperformed the precious metals.

For example, Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently below its 1989 high. Pan American Silver (PAAS) is below its 1997 high. (Dividends included.)

GDX (gold miners ETF) is down nearly 50% since its 2006 inception. SIL (silver miners ETF) is down nearly 40% during its 5-year existence. (Silver is down about 10% for the 5-year period, based on the SLV price.)

In part, I think the miners have been legitimately punished for poor corporate management, but current pricing appears to reflect an overdose of pessimism.

----------


## oyarde

> Sure they did--when this was posted Silver was at like $40/Oz and foolish Kool Aid drinkers held on since advisors told them to sit tight=FOOLS


 Well , I sold alot and bought alot since then .Today , I doubled my money on some nickels I had been sitting on for awhile.

----------


## Dforkus

> Yes, miners have severely underperformed the precious metals.
> 
> 
> For example, Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently below its 1989 high. Pan American Silver (PAAS) is below its 1997 high. (Dividends included.)
> 
> GDX (gold miners ETF) is down nearly 50% since its 2006 inception. SIL (silver miners ETF) is down nearly 40% during its 5-year existence. (Silver is down about 10% for the 5-year period, based on the SLV price.)
> 
> In part, I think the miners have been legitimately punished for poor corporate management, but current pricing appears to reflect an overdose of pessimism.


Miners are just terrible investments... It seems like they combine the negative aspects of commodity AND equity investments with neither of the upsides...
For metals, it seems like you are better off just sticky with the metal..

For energy it has always, at least to me, seemed just the opposite. You are better off sticking with large, stable, dividend paying equities

----------


## phonetic lee

> Miners are just terrible investments...


Yes, they have been, but there must be some price level low enough to be attractive. Miners are difficult to value because they're so dependent on prices of metals (which themselves are difficult to value), but by my count, we already have silver trading below cost of production, and gold in the vicinity of cost. 

It's hard for me to envision sustainable price declines from these levels unless mining costs fall sharply.

I think the miners have shown more enthusiasm for paying dividends, but it's difficult when they're in a crisis situation.

----------


## edward222

> Haven't the silver miners fared even worse than silver itself?


Silver always have people,
people doesnt always have silver.

Reality...

----------


## devil21

PMs haven't moved more than a few bucks a day for many months.  Very stable.

----------


## NACBA

BACK DA TRUCK UP

----------


## roho76

> BACK DA TRUCK UP


Not yet! I'm looking at the $13.50 price range. If it breaks that support then we could be on our way to the sub $10 dollar range but I doubt it will go that far.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Where can we buy an oz of silver for $14.76?

----------


## oyarde

> Where can we buy an oz of silver for $14.76?


I dunno , but I got lucky last Wed  and got  15 Mercury dimes and a Walking Liberty Half for $21.25 , or , about an ounce and a third.

----------


## oyarde

I saw some 2014 silver eagles for $21 , they sold too , I did not buy any....

----------


## Lord Xar

nvm..

----------


## Schifference

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_panam.php

Can purchase for as little as $15.57 an ounce.

----------


## qh4dotcom

Silver is now less than $14

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> I dunno , but I got lucky last Wed  and got  15 Mercury dimes and a Walking Liberty Half for $21.25 , or , about an ounce and a third.





> Silver is now less than $14


OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...

----------


## angelatc

> OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...


I think that's a buy price for me as well.  I remember being excited to see it at $15.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...


April 2011 (start of thread) Silver was about $45 an ounce. $17 currently.

----------


## LibForestPaul

> April 2011 (start of thread) Silver was about $45 an ounce. $17 currently.



What caused the massive increase in jul10 and jan 11?

----------


## Dark_Horse_Rider

...

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What caused the massive increase in jul10 and jan 11?


The ending of the recession metals bubble.

----------


## oyarde

> The ending of the recession metals bubble.


Next one starts when the next stock correction comes .

----------


## TheTexan

#bubble #crashing

----------


## Original_Intent

> Next one starts when the next stock correction comes .


The BIG One. Big Bada Boom!

----------


## devil21

> What caused the massive increase in jul10 and jan 11?


That's when the bullion banks stopped shorting silver for a period, JPM covered all of the Bear Stearns short positions they inherited, then restarted manipulating the market itself through short paper games.  We saw the true prices of PMs emerging for a short period.

----------


## GoGetter

A bad trade is a bad trade. 

It can join bitcoin in the list of supposedly superior currencies that still no-one is using to pay rent or buy groceries.

----------


## oyarde

I have been doing quite well with silver ,

----------

