# Liberty Movement > Defenders of Liberty > Justin Amash Forum >  Roll Call: Amash eyeing Senate run?

## eleganz

Draft Justin Amash FB page here: https://www.facebook.com/DraftJustinForMichigan

http://atr.rollcall.com/michigan-ama...ng-senate-run/




> Conservative Rep. Justin Amash, R-Mich., is considering a Senate run if Democratic Sen. Carl Levin retires, according to a report in National Review.
> 
> Amash has told local activists he’s intrigued by a statewide run, per the conservative outlet. An Amash spokesman did not immediately respond to an email and voice mail message.
> 
> Levin, 78, has not said yet whether he will seek a seventh term, but his spokeswoman told the Lansing State Journal this month that she expects a decision “in the next few weeks.”
> 
> If he retires, Michigan Democrats expect a top official in the state will run in his stead. Wolverine Republicans are more concerned about their candidate prospects for the race — especially after Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., walloped former Rep. Peter Hoekstra, a Republican, by 20 points last November.
> 
> Michigan GOP insiders were not surprised by Amash’s interest. Paul Welday, a Republican consultant in Michigan, said ”there have been rumors to that effect for a while.”
> ...


http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapi...ng_senate.html




> Amash, described by the Review as "the libertarian bad boy of the House GOP," would likely run if Levin retires, an unnamed source told the magazine:
> 
> “People are asking him to look at it, and he hasn’t closed the door,” says a Republican operative familiar with Michigan politics. “If Levin steps down, I think he’s going to run.”
> 
> …
> 
> But no decision is imminent. Amash is waiting to see whether Levin, who has less than $250,000 in his campaign account, will formally announce his retirement. Levin, the chairman of the Armed Services committee, was first elected in 1978.
> 
> Without naming names, the Review also charged that Michigan Republicans are unnerved by the prospect of an Amash run because they hope a more established GOP candidate will seek Levin's seat.

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## MikeStanart

There hasn't been a Republican Senator from Michigan since 2001; not sure if this is a wise move.  Preston Bates from Liberty for All has been pushing Amash to run, but I'm not sold on the idea.  Amash has an almost guaranteed spot in the House.  What does he gain by risking it all?

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## MikeStanart

*Presidential Results:*

Obama , Barack (i) 	Dem 	2,561,911 	*54%*
Romney , Mitt 	GOP 	2,112,673 	*45%*

*Senate Results:* 

Stabenow , Debbie (i) 	Dem 	2,732,886 	*59%*
Hoekstra , Pete 	GOP 	1,765,548 	*38%*

This is a state-wide race; this is a completely different ball-game than Amash's current district!

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## Uriah

> *Presidential Results:*
> 
> Obama , Barack (i) 	Dem 	2,561,911 	*54%*
> Romney , Mitt 	GOP 	2,112,673 	*45%*
> 
> *Senate Results:* 
> 
> 
> Stabenow , Debbie (i) 	Dem 	2,732,886 	*59%*
> ...


Stabenow was an entrenched incumbent. Presidential races are different machines. Open seats are a completely different game. I haven't seen the data but some are saying Michigan is trending GOP. MI elected a GOP governor last time around. Anything goes.

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## KEEF

I live in Michigan, and about the only GOP part of Michigan is the bible belt found west of US-131 and south of I96.  Amash's district is on the West side of Grand Rapids.  Being a senate race is a statewide race, I think it would be best if he stayed in the house.

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## eleganz

Don't forget Ron Paul did win Detroit, MI when all odds were against him.

He won because they know he was the only one with the 'outside-the-box' solutions to give them the best chance at a better life.

I'm thinking Justin could very well do the same.

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## FSP-Rebel

This would be our best shot at a Senate seat here in Mich, opposition and entrenched incumbent retires during the midterm of the opposition party's president's last term. Since his House district leans right, we could probably end up with a decent replacement. The dems don't have a replacement Senate candidate that would have a head start in terms of statewide name id. This election could and likely will replicate Snyder going up against a nobody dem for Governor in 2010 in terms of turnout from the left. Quite frankly, the insider GOPs need a solid conservative-libertarian to help Snyder win reelection and strengthen the ticket all the way down. LFA, Club 4 Growth, RandPac and many more PACs will help in the general aside from grassroots donations from around the country. However, we'll likely be dealing with the likes of Rove in the primary assuming we can't go convention/caucus style by then. If Levin retires, go all in for this.

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## Uriah

If Amash runs, support him all the way. Rep. Amash seems like an intelligent young man to me. If he thinks he can win statewide then he probably can.

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## itshappening

> If Levin retires, go all in for this.


What's the point? Michigan is NOT going to replace an uber liberal like Levin with a staunch conservative.  Never, ever, ever.  And he has to give up his House seat for this long shot statewide bid?  

Total fantasy and a bad idea. 

GOP has won the Senate in MI 3 times in 60 years and 20 races .

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## Peace&Freedom

Amash could win the Senate seat if he switched parties and won the Democratic nomination. The key to our guy winning big elections is to look for open seats like this one, abandon this "we can do it all through one major party" mindset, and focusing on rolling with demographics of the districts and state. Run liberty Democrats in statewide races that trend Democrat (as in Michigan), and run liberty Republicans in states that tilt GOP.

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## mz10

> Amash could win the Senate seat if he switched parties and won the Democratic nomination. The key to our guy winning big elections is to look for open seats like this one, abandon this "we can do it all through one major party" mindset, and focusing on rolling with demographics of the districts and state. Run liberty Democrats in statewide races that trend Democrat (as in Michigan), and run liberty Republicans in states that tilt GOP.


Democrats won't go for a liberty candidate. Literally the only way would be to lie throughout the campaign and pretend to be a hardcore lefty, and then get in office and start promoting liberty. And that would probably turn a lot of people off, anyway, so do we really want that?

The _best_ Democrat you will ever find in a high office is Ron Wyden. And he's a two-star at most on liberty issues.

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## AJ Antimony

> What does he gain by risking it all?


A Senate seat...

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## AJ Antimony

> What's the point? Michigan is NOT going to replace an uber liberal like Levin with a staunch conservative.  Never, ever, ever.  And he has to give up his House seat for this long shot statewide bid?  
> 
> Total fantasy and a bad idea. 
> 
> GOP has won the Senate in MI 3 times in 60 years and 20 races .


That's why you don't market Justin as a "staunch conservative." You market him as an independent libertarian-leaning Republican.

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## wetroof

If Amash brands himself as libertarian instead of tea party /conservative he could do better with democrats. but he would need to get a lot of money and GOP support behind him.

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## AJ Antimony

> Amash could win the Senate seat if he switched parties and won the Democratic nomination. The key to our guy winning big elections is to look for open seats like this one, abandon this "we can do it all through one major party" mindset, and focusing on rolling with demographics of the districts and state. Run liberty Democrats in statewide races that trend Democrat (as in Michigan), and run liberty Republicans in states that tilt GOP.


Something tells me you didn't think this through.

Well, actually, something tells me that after 5-6 years of being a member here and thus following politics, you still have absolutely no idea whatsoever how politics works. 

Let me see if I understand your fantasy correctly:

You think Justin, a Republican, as his best shot at winning this Senate seat, should abandon the party that nominated and elected him to the House, run as a Democrat, and then somehow he will actually convince Democratic voters to nominate him, a former Republican, over the actual Democratic candidates in the race?

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## KingRobbStark

This won't work at all. Even if a miracle happens and he wins this time, I am 100% sure he won't win again come reelection,

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## itshappening

> That's why you don't market Justin as a "staunch conservative." You market him as an independent libertarian-leaning Republican.


Doesn't matter.  MI will not elect a senator who wants to cut spending and who tells it to them like it is no matter how you brand it. 

The only places you can win with that message is in red states and Michigan is anything but. It's the home of organized labor and left wing politics.

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## Uriah

> Doesn't matter.  MI will not elect a senator who wants to cut spending and who tells it to them like it is no matter how you brand it. 
> 
> The only places you can win with that message is in red states and Michigan is anything but. It's the home of organized labor and left wing politics.


The home of organized labor, the land that just passed Right-to-Work into law.

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## Uriah

The thing is, Rep. Amash will have more power in the US Senate. He will lose his congressional seat if he runs for Senate, that much is certain. However, he has no traction in the House. Speaker Boehner removed him from Budget committee. Senate seats are hard to win, especially when the state leans towards the opposing political party. However, open US Senate seats are hard to come by and much easier to win. Challenging Senator Levin would be a huge mistake. Although, if he retires then the door of opportunity opens. Rick Snyder won the governorship with 58% of the vote. Michigan can go either way.

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## supermario21

Does Michigan have a Democratic bench? Other than Levin and Stabenow, they have had some pretty weak candidates run in their recent statewide elections. Also I'd think there will be a rush to attack Snyder more thinking that the Senate seat would be an easy hold if Levin were to retire.

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## FSP-Rebel

> Doesn't matter.  MI will not elect a senator who wants to cut spending and who tells it to them like it is no matter how you brand it. 
> 
> The only places you can win with that message is in red states and Michigan is anything but. It's the home of organized labor and left wing politics.


In past times I would agree with you. Yet, your religious mentioning of the fact that there's been only 3 GOP Senators in whatever X amount of years doesn't translate into today's MI scenery. The unions don't have the strength they once had as evidenced by the recent stomping of their public and private worker collective bargaining ploy (prop 2) to reshape the MI Constitution. In addition, their recent ploy to unionize home health care workers (prop 4) met the same fate all this despite Obama winning MI, meaning a half a million Obama voters voted against this tripe. Not to mention, these unions weren't sitting on their hands when Snyder was running against their dem and still they couldn't turn out the vote. They make a lot of noise but that's about it. It's all about turn out esp in this next midterm and lately, the dems have proven faulty at it. 

The last GOP Senator from MI was Spence Abraham who got upset by Stabenow during Gore's stomping of W back in 2000 and they haven't had any decent non-rinos since. In midterms when our Governor is elected, the dems don't do so hot against incumbent republicans as evidenced by incumbent Engler stomping Fieger in '98 yet they win when the GOP nominates dribble like Posthumus in '02. In '06, DeVos spent $40 mil going up against Granholm yet lost big time because that was the anti-Bush/republican payback election. Then, we move on to Snyder winning in '10 because the dems could only field a back-bencher and the Tea Party's strength gave Snyder the edge. So, here we are going into the '14 midterms and the dems are in a similar situation of not having anyone in the wings that can offer them the edge. Turnout will be low as in all midterms and traditionally the repubs have the edge and likely will in many states that can flip (not the IL, NY, MA, NJ, RI, VT etc). JAmash has every shot at winning should he decide to run. PAC money will be getting him all the name id he needs in a positive fashion which will supersede any person the dems can put up esp in this midterm. This is a very winnable race because of the circumstances.

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## KingNothing

Amash would definitely have a shot at winning, because he'd have national financial support.  I know that I'd max-out to his campaign.  I assume that there are MANY like me who would love to see him in the Senate, making Rand look tame!

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## KingNothing

> Democrats won't go for a liberty candidate. Literally the only way would be to lie throughout the campaign and pretend to be a hardcore lefty, and then get in office and start promoting liberty. And that would probably turn a lot of people off, anyway, so do we really want that?
> 
> The _best_ Democrat you will ever find in a high office is Ron Wyden. And he's a two-star at most on liberty issues.



I imagine that if ANYONE ran an aggressive, energetic, youthful, optimistic, state-wide campaign founded on populism and unabashed attacks on corporatism, he could win provided he had the financial support to keep the ball moving forward.

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## KingNothing

> This won't work at all. Even if a miracle happens and he wins this time, I am 100% sure he won't win again come reelection,



I completely disagree with this.  The hard part is winning office once. Incumbents rarely lose.

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## AJ Antimony

> Doesn't matter.  MI will not elect a senator who wants to cut spending and who tells it to them like it is no matter how you brand it. 
> 
> The only places you can win with that message is in red states and Michigan is anything but. It's the home of organized labor and left wing politics.


And has a Republican governor and legislature...

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## AJ Antimony

> In past times I would agree with you. Yet, your religious mentioning of the fact that there's been only 3 GOP Senators in whatever X amount of years doesn't translate into today's MI scenery. The unions don't have the strength they once had as evidenced by the recent stomping of their public and private worker collective bargaining ploy (prop 2) to reshape the MI Constitution. In addition, their recent ploy to unionize home health care workers (prop 4) met the same fate all this despite Obama winning MI, meaning a half a million Obama voters voted against this tripe. Not to mention, these unions weren't sitting on their hands when Snyder was running against their dem and still they couldn't turn out the vote. They make a lot of noise but that's about it. It's all about turn out esp in this next midterm and lately, the dems have proven faulty at it. 
> 
> The last GOP Senator from MI was Spence Abraham who got upset by Stabenow during Gore's stomping of W back in 2000 and they haven't had any decent non-rinos since. In midterms when our Governor is elected, the dems don't do so hot against incumbent republicans as evidenced by incumbent Engler stomping Fieger in '98 yet they win when the GOP nominates dribble like Posthumus in '02. In '06, DeVos spent $40 mil going up against Granholm yet lost big time because that was the anti-Bush/republican payback election. Then, we move on to Snyder winning in '10 because the dems could only field a back-bencher and the Tea Party's strength gave Snyder the edge. So, here we are going into the '14 midterms and the dems are in a similar situation of not having anyone in the wings that can offer them the edge. Turnout will be low as in all midterms and traditionally the repubs have the edge and likely will in many states that can flip (not the IL, NY, MA, NJ, RI, VT etc). JAmash has every shot at winning should he decide to run. PAC money will be getting him all the name id he needs in a positive fashion which will supersede any person the dems can put up esp in this midterm. This is a very winnable race because of the circumstances.


Wow, it's almost like you live in Michigan and therefore know what you're talking about!

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## Brett85

Amash is downplaying this report.

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapi...ts_hell_r.html

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## supermario21

Does a ranking like this help Amash? He's well to the left of the ideological center and is one of the most moderate Republicans according to this. We know he's the most conservative, but does this help attract moderates in a potential Senate campaign?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...refid=earthbox

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