# Liberty Movement > Liberty Campaigns >  Ron Paul Odds for 2012: 50/1

## RonPaulFanInGA

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...day-537712824/




> DUBLIN, Jan. 16, 2009 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) ----To mark the inauguration of Barack Obama as the forty-fourth President of the United States of America, Irish bookmaking chain Paddy Power are offering a wide range of Obama themed betting opportunities.
> 
> With an expected domestic TV audience in excess of 50-million, customers of Paddy Power can place bets on the duration of President Obama's speech, what "cliche" he will first mention during his address, the actual number of viewers that tune in and whether the TV audience will exceed that of Superbowl XLIII.
> 
> Other Obama bets on offer from Paddy Power include which country (after Canada) Obama will first officially visit as President of the United States, his first year approval ratings and how many Oscar winners will mention Obama in their acceptance speech!
> 
> Paddy Power famously paid out over EUR 1,000,000 on Barack Obama winning the 2008 Presidential race a full 10-days before polling day last year. Already President Obama is the bookmaker's odds-on 4-5 favourite to win in 2012 which gives him a 56% of success.


US Presidential Election 2012 - Winning Candidate (Next President) 

4/5 Barack Obama 
7/1 Sarah Palin 
10/1 Hillary Clinton 
11/1 Mitt Romney 
14/1 Mike Huckabee 
16/1 Joe Biden 
20/1 Jon Huntsman 
25/1 Bobby Jindal 
33/1 Fred Thompson 
33/1 Bill Owens 
40/1 Evan Bayh 
40/1 Rudolph Giuliani 
40/1 Jeb Bush 
40/1 Lindsey Graham 
40/1 David Petraeus 
50/1 Tom Ridge 
50/1 Ron Paul 
66/1 John McCain 
66/1 Al Gore

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## slacker921

holy hell..   Palin at 7/1  ...   H.Clinton at 10/1 ..   that's a scary list.  Look at all the nutjobs that they're giving good odds to.  Yikes.  Giuliani?  Jeb $#@!ing Bush??

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## AJ Antimony

Yeeeaaahhh ron paul!!!!!!!!

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## nobody's_hero

When Al Gore creates his climate-altering machine and bends everyone to his will, I believe these odds will change. 

Bwua Ha Ha Ha.

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## rockandrollsouls

> holy hell..   Palin at 7/1  ...   H.Clinton at 10/1 ..   that's a scary list.  Look at all the nutjobs that they're giving good odds to.  Yikes.  Giuliani?  Jeb $#@!ing Bush??


I know...it's all a little ridiculous. But...hell, at least they acknowledged his existence.

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## Kludge

I think Huckabee could have a good run in 2012 if Obama doesn't make good on his promises (not that it benefits us).

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## Uriel999

> I think Huckabee could have a good run in 2012 if Obama doesn't make good on his promises (not that it benefits us).


I think your right. With his own tv show on Fox now he can just become more and more well known. Then again, he may be happy to have his own tv show...I mean who wouldn't want to have their own tv show!

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## rockandrollsouls

> I think Huckabee could have a good run in 2012 if Obama doesn't make good on his promises (not that it benefits us).


Eh, I don't think so. I can't see many people liking him....not only that, those odds are greatly distorted. Does anyone in the country NOT think Sarah Palin is a complete and total moron?

I'm tellin' you guys, odds for Ron in 2012 are great.

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## satchelmcqueen

if paul gets as much positive coverage then as he is now i think the odds are for him.

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## RonPaulFanInGA

> ....those odds are greatly distorted. Does anyone in the country NOT think Sarah Palin is a complete and total moron?


http://www.rlcil.org/2009/01/16/new-...v-sarah-palin/

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## TER

I'm not a betting person, but if he announces a run and the odds stay 50/1, it would be a bet I'd be willing to put some money on.

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## Conza88

Is there even going to be a United States in 2012? 

Maybe Canada and the Mexicans might have someone running.. lol

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## brandon

I'm guessing all Ron Paul has to do is announce he is running and his odds will shoot up to like 25/1

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## Paulitical Correctness

I wish TW was here to throw some cynicism ya'lls way.

Voting is pointless, someone like Ron Paul can't win, and the only "change" headed our way is for the worst.

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## rockandrollsouls

> http://www.rlcil.org/2009/01/16/new-...v-sarah-palin/


I highly doubt it, and I really don't care what the polls say. The sentiment I've picked up is she's a complete klutz and kook and I've really never met anyone that likes her. Plus, remember the GOP isn't exactly a powerhouse anymore.

Believe whatever numbers you want...I don't believe em.

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## Peace&Freedom

Who the heck is Jon Huntsman? And does anybody know the breakdown list this same group gave four years ago on Presidential odds?

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## brandon

> And does anybody know the breakdown list this same group gave four years ago on Presidential odds?


I don't know about this same group, but I know some professional odds makers had RP at about 200/1 to start with, and he peaked at about 50/1 shortly before the Iowa caucus. These aren't exact numbers, just the best I can remember.

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## RonPaulFanInGA

> Who the heck is Jon Huntsman?


He was the only one on the list I didn't recognize.  Huntsman is the republican governor of Utah.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.

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## RevolutionSD

Did we not learning anything from RP's run last year? The game is rigged, and anyway, we should not be trying to vote in our masters even if they are Ron Paul. Voting is simply a suggestion box for slaves. The mainstream media controls popular thought. They are NEVER going to become libertarian as long as we have a federal government in charge. We need to realize that government brings us NOTHING and suggesting different masters every 4 years is a total waste of time if you are for total freedom. We simply must not comply with the BS. There is no use for a federal government nor will there ever be. We need to grow up as a society and get past the idea of mommy and daddy government.

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## RonPaulVolunteer

I am convinced that if we stop talking about silly crap and get serious, we can run a 4 year campaign and win. Ron Paul and someone very well liked as his VP. Peter Schiff perhaps, Steve Forbes maybe.

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## rockandrollsouls

> I am convinced that if we stop talking about silly crap and get serious, we can run a 4 year campaign and win. Ron Paul and someone very well liked as his VP. Peter Schiff perhaps, Steve Forbes maybe.


I agree...which is why he should announce now, so we can start telling everyone about it NOW. And, forget Steve Forbes. If I recall correctly, he was originally a fan of some of the bailouts.

And at RevolutionSD, I suppose you want to torch the Constitution then? Government has its proper role.

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## surf

we need to take over control of the GOP. next time there won't be guys like Sal from Michigan saying things like "RP should be excluded from all debates."

like many here, i do not feel that good about having to associate heavily w/the current republican party - but laws limit libertarians (and Bob Barr was a schmuck) so i do it. i'll gladly continue to push for acceptance of our platform, and it should be easier as the current GOP rallies in opposition to Obama's Bush-like positions.

my .02

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## Imperial

No Mark Sanford?

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## brandon

> No Mark Sanford?


I have trouble trusting someone who campaigned for John McCain.

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## qh4dotcom

I can't believe the odds are so high for Obama considering that the economy/recession will get much worse during his presidency according to RP and Schiff.

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## Sandra

Oh c'mon... Jeb Bush is 40/1. No way in hell.

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## qh4dotcom

> Oh c'mon... Jeb Bush is 40/1. No way in hell.


Jeb said he's not running

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## Minlawc

Why would Giuliani have better odds when he did far worse than Paul in the primaries?

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## qh4dotcom

Lindsey Graham 40/1? What are these oddsmakers smoking? That video of him calling bigots whoever opposes his amnesty should ruin any chance he has.

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## RevolutionSD

> I agree...which is why he should announce now, so we can start telling everyone about it NOW. And, forget Steve Forbes. If I recall correctly, he was originally a fan of some of the bailouts.
> 
> And at RevolutionSD, I suppose you want to torch the Constitution then? Government has its proper role.


The constitution was torched a LONG time ago. Bush just put the finishing touches on it. And he's right, it's just a goddamn piece of paper. What makes you think we can turn government around? If you haven't noticed, they do what they want. 

Tell me how we're going to turn a coercive, violent organization into a benevolent one and I'm game for another election. Otherwise it's just a WOT to me.

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## slacker921

> ....those odds are greatly distorted. Does anyone in the country NOT think Sarah Palin is a complete and total moron?
> 
> I'm tellin' you guys, odds for Ron in 2012 are great.


I see "Sarah" or "Cuda" bumper stickers all the time - far more than McCain or even "W04" (and I still see a lot of those, as hard as that is to believe).  There are a lot of neoconservative evangelicals.

And "Moron" is relative.  If you're going through life with an IQ of 90 then Palin is a genius and someone like Ron Paul is so smart he's just obnoxious and doesn't make sense when he talks about things like "fiat currency".

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## XxNeXuSxX

> I see "Sarah" or "Cuda" bumper stickers all the time - far more than McCain or even "W04" (and I still see a lot of those, as hard as that is to believe).  There are a lot of neoconservative evangelicals.
> 
> And "Moron" is relative.  If you're going through life with an IQ of 90 then Palin is a genius and someone like Ron Paul is so smart he's just obnoxious and doesn't make sense when he talks about things like "fiat currency".


Masterfully articulated.

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## satchelmcqueen

sure its all rigged as we found out this last time without a doubt, but im hoping that this time around people will finally be pissed off enough to do things with force and make the government back down. there is nothing like mad people with a hero to lead them or to get behind. ron paul can be that man if he announces now, or right after obama is sworn in...which im wondering if thats all that is holding him back right now. he sees the massive support for him now that wasnt there even 2 months ago.

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## tremendoustie

> http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...day-537712824/
> 
> 
> 
> US Presidential Election 2012 - Winning Candidate (Next President) 
> 
> 4/5 Barack Obama 
> 7/1 Sarah Palin 
> 10/1 Hillary Clinton 
> ...


Someone explain to me how in the heck Hillary is #3. Are they betting on Barack being assassinated or impeached or something?

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## jdmyprez_deo_vindice

If memory serves me correctly I believe bookmakers had much higher odds of Ron Paul winning in the early stages of the last election (like 250/1 or something like that). So I guess this is a small victory.

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## jrich4rpaul

http://bumperstickers.cafepress.com/...mper/316617660

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## ARobb

> Someone explain to me how in the heck Hillary is #3. Are they betting on Barack being assassinated or impeached or something?


Just a guess and something I was thinking after Barack won the nomination...Hillary could always run as a 3rd party candidate.

Unlikely to happen but it's possible.

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## ARobb

> If memory serves me correctly I believe bookmakers had much higher odds of Ron Paul winning in the early stages of the last election (like 250/1 or something like that). So I guess this is a small victory.


It shows how far this campaign has come....

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## trey4sports

you have to understand, people looking from the outside, have plenty of reason to be pessimistic. Paul never ever had good polling numbers nor did he place well in any MAJOR primarys. His fundraising could have been a "fluke"
but when your on the inside looking out you know that we will do well

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## polomertz

50/1 Ron Paul 
66/1 John McCain

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## Aratus

if you want to crossbet, and counterbet, lay 100 on obama, 
lay 100 on palin, and then bet 200 on ron paul at the 50 to 1 odds

if ron paul wins, your initial $200 becomes $10,ooo and you are in rEVOLUTIOnARy bliss
as you can actually get some bills paid. if "divine sarah" wins, your initial $400 dollar
decision to counterbet has you with a $300 profit most happily. this is sorta like
what voting g.o.p would do in 2012 would do to us as a country...methinks!
now as to why you tossed good money after bad when laying a C~note
on our current potus, okaaaay... if he squeaks in on this one again...
thats how things will be feeling. full-time becomes part-time and
yes, you need some compensation for the wad of cash you
just blew with all the 1990s and bush years panache...
as you get your initial 100 dollar bet back, the neat
differential that is the payout is our inflation rate...

cheer up! laying the $300 on both ron apul and divine sarah
has one at least briefly with hope voting one's heart...
even if the opinion polls have you seeing the wood for the trees!

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## eok321

*Republican Presidential Nominee* 

David Petraeus  20 - 1  
*Ron Paul  25 - 1 * 
Sarah Palin  3 - 1  
John Ensign  25 - 1  
Mitt Romney  5 - 1  
George Allen  33 - 1  
Mike Huckabee  7 - 1  
Condoleezza Rice  33 - 1  
Bobby Jindal  12 - 1  
John McCain  33 - 1  
Jon Huntsman  12 - 1  
Bill First  40 - 1  
Fred Thompson  16 - 1  
George Pataki  40 - 1  
Bill Owens  16 - 1  
Sam Brownback  50 - 1  
Lindsey Graham  20 - 1  
Arnold Schwarzenegger  50 - 1  
Jeb Bush  20 - 1  
Dick Cheney  100 - 1  
Rudolph Giuliani  20 - 1  
Laura Bush  500 - 1  
Tom Ridge  25 - 1  

*Winning Party*
Democrats  4 - 6  
Republicans  11 - 10  
Any Other  80 - 1

Paddy Power U.S Presidential Betting

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## Austin

> *Republican Presidential Nominee* 
> 
> David Petraeus  20 - 1  
> *Ron Paul  25 - 1 * 
> Sarah Palin  3 - 1  
> John Ensign  25 - 1  
> Mitt Romney  5 - 1  
> George Allen  33 - 1  
> Mike Huckabee  7 - 1  
> ...


Interesting.

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## ClayTrainor

I'll take those Odds!

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## brandon

> I'll take those Odds!


Considering I've lost several hundred dollars playing roulette in the last month, I'm not satisfied with those odds. We need to get him to like 1 - 4 then i'll feel safe.

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## PureCommonSense

If we start raising money early enough, we can make those odds skyrocket.  And Ron Paul has to spend a LOT of time in New Hampshire (the remainder in Iowa in the beginning) and then Nevada this time around without wasting time in places like New York or South Carolina.  Prioritize to win strategy.

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## homah

Keep in mind that the true odds on these bets are much worse than are being offered by the sportsbook.  They might be offering 50/1 on Paul, but his true odds are much, much worse.  They are basically fishing for sucker bets.

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## homah

> Lindsey Graham 40/1? What are these oddsmakers smoking? That video of him calling bigots whoever opposes his amnesty should ruin any chance he has.


They aren't smoking anything.  They are relying on the general public smoking something and placing the bet.  If the true odds are 10000/1 and they can get away with offering only 40/1, they will gladly do so.

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## dr. hfn

Doug Wead has it all thought out

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## Lucille

The PC crowd will crush him again.  McArdle was proving (re-proving?) her anti-racist bonafides again this weekend by bring up the newsletters.  If Paul ran against Bambam in '12, it is guaranteed the MSM (including all the so-called libertarian publications) would see to it those newsletters would be front page news.

Re-reading all that refreshed my hatred for the liberaltarians.

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## rsvforronpaul

Mark Sanford will be the next president!!!

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## Paul or not at all

it's still to early to tell. There is no guarentee that there will even be an election (or an America) in 2012

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## amonasro

> it's still to early to tell. There is no guarentee that there will even be an election (or an America) in 2012


There will.  And the people will desperately need someone who can fix the economy, not another status-quo liar.

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## Lovecraftian4Paul

Interesting. I don't understand how these statistics are calculated though. And why do they even bother with Democrats? We all know Obama is going to be their candidate in 2012 again, unless something cataclysmic happens to him. He could do a more crap job than Bush--and, in all likelyhood, he will--and still get re-nominated. Neither of the two parties in modern times have ever dumped an incumbent President. Even LBJ voluntarily decided not to go for re-election, he probably would have gotten their nomination again if he had.

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## PureCommonSense

I hope Sanford and Paul don't split the liberty vote if they BOTH go for the GOP nomination.  Sometimes its better to have one figure to rally behind.

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## eok321

Update..

*Republican Nominee*

Mitt Romney 	             8/13
Rick Perry 	                     5/2
Herman Cain 	            14/1
*Ron Paul 	                    14/1*
Michele Bachmann 	    20/1
Jon Huntsman 	            22/1
Paul Ryan 	                    33/1
Rudolph Giuliani 	            40/1
Newt Gingrich 	            66/1

*Next President*

Barack Obama 	              4/5
Mitt Romney 	              2/1
Rick Perry 	                      7/1
*Ron Paul 	                     16/1* 
Herman Cain 	             25/1
Jon Huntsman 	             33/1
Hillary Clinton 	             33/1
Michele Bachmann 	     40/1	
Paul Ryan 	                     66/1
Rudolph Giuliani 	             80/1
Joe Biden 	                     80/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...grp_ids=482041

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## eok321

*Iowa Caucus*

Mitt Romney 	6/4
Newt Gingrich 	13/8
Herman Cain 	5/1
*Ron Paul 	5/1*
Rick Perry 	9/1
Michele Bachmann 	12/1
Rick Santorum 	20/1
Jon Huntsman 	40/1 


*Republican Nominee*

Mitt Romney 	1/2
Newt Gingrich 	7/2
Rick Perry 	10/1
*Ron Paul 	10/1*
Herman Cain 	14/1
Jon Huntsman 	25/1
Michele Bachmann 	50/1 

*Next President*

Barack Obama 	10/11 
Mitt Romney 	15/8 
Newt Gingrich 	8/1
*Ron Paul 	16/1*
Rick Perry 	22/1 
Herman Cain 	22/1

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## eok321

Ron Now 17/2 for the Nomination

Markets reacting to the slew of better polls

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## eok321

*To Win Iowa*
Newt Gingrich 8/11
*Ron Paul 5/4*
Mitt Romney 10/1


*To Win New Hampshire*
Mitt Romney 4/6
Newt Gingrich 2/1
*Ron Paul 7/1*

*
Republican Nominee*
Newt 6/5
Mitt  6/5
*Ron 7/1*


*Next President*
Obama 5/6
Newt 10/3
Mitt 10/3
*Ron 14/1*

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...grp_ids=482041

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