# News & Current Events > Economy & Markets >  CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

## Matt Collins

If they are admitting a 5% jump, the true number is probably more like 15%-20%


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/b...-may-2021.html

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## TheCount

It's mostly in strange places like used car prices, hotel rooms, etc


Some of it will settle out, only time will tell how much

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## dannno



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## Warrior_of_Freedom

I hope all those big screen stimulus tvs were worth the lifelong interest

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## TheTexan

> I hope all those big screen stimulus tvs were worth the lifelong interest


They were

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## Danke

> They were


how big is yours?

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## Warrior_of_Freedom

> how big is yours?


32" is the perfect size. Not too big, not too small.

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## TheTexan

> how big is yours?


I have four 120"s stacked as 2x2, wired to work as a single TV.

Thx covid stimmies

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## oyarde

Used cars were up ten percent in April alone , more now . housing 13 percent last year , more this yr so expect these numbers to go much higher in the near future.

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## oyarde

Companies like Coca Cola have said now they are already planning for price increases in 2022 . They know costs are rising and it cant be stopped .

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## oyarde

Nine other companies working on price increases now are , Stanley, Clorox , Proctor and Gamble , Kimberly Clark , Honeywell , JM Smucker Co , Whirlpool , Reynolds , Campbell Soup . These are just the ones publicly admitting it . Reynolds has implemented the first round of increases and the second and third rounds are set . Meanwhile the Fed continues to blatantly lie and say it is of no concern and just due to plague shortages. Thats is not even close to the truth they just expect you to be stupid enough to believe it when your paying 45 percent more for a ribeye in 2022 than you did in 2019.

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## oyarde

So far I havnt even seen any studies showing a projected impact of the shipping crisis. I expect this could also contribute more to consumer goods increases beyond all the other things contributing.

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## Danke

> I have four 120"s stacked as 2x2, wired to work as a single TV.
> 
> Thx covid stimmies


mine is 120”

4000k Epson projector.  Great for watching football. But don’t tell the Injun, I don’t want him knocking at my door and eating my popcorn during the playoffs.

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## oyarde

> mine is 120”
> 
> 4000k Epson projector.  Great for watching football. But don’t tell the Injun, I don’t want him knocking at my door and eating my popcorn during the playoffs.


you have popcorn ?

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## Madison320

Commodity prices have crashed the last couple weeks. 

I think before prices really go crazy we'll see all time highs in every commodity, but I don't think we're there yet. Oil could change that.

One thing I think the "experts" are missing is that there's going to be another market crisis. I hear people saying the Fed might start to tighten but that assumes nothing is going to go wrong.  When you have 28 trillion in debt and you're borrowing 4+trillion a year, something WILL go wrong. The experts that are predicting tightening will be screaming for more QE when the market starts crashing.

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## oyarde

oil is out there leading the way today.

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## oyarde

Fed continues with blatant dishonesty saying expects 3 1/2 percent inflation.

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## Krugminator2

> 


 
High prices mean more profits, which means more supply brought to market, which means lower prices and normalized profits. The cure for high prices is high prices. 

Lumber is down 50% since the peak when he highlights that article.  

Home prices are determined by supply and demand not by Blackrock or mysterious people on Wall Street.  Speculators don't cause high prices.   If Blackrock buys houses for more than they are theoretically worth, then they will lose money. If existing home prices rise to more than people can afford, then new homes will be more economical to build which will bring existing home prices down. 

Basically nothing he said is worth listening to, assuming you believe markets work.

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## ClaytonB



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## Matt4Liberty

> High prices mean more profits, which means more supply brought to market, which means lower prices and normalized profits. The cure for high prices is high prices. 
> 
> Lumber is down 50% since the peak when he highlights that article.  
> 
> Home prices are determined by supply and demand not by Blackrock or mysterious people on Wall Street.  Speculators don't cause high prices.   If Blackrock buys houses for more than they are theoretically worth, then they will lose money. If existing home prices rise to more than people can afford, then new homes will be more economical to build which will bring existing home prices down. 
> 
> Basically nothing he said is worth listening to, assuming you believe markets work.


That "cure" only works in a free market. Unlimited Federal Reserve notes to select insiders does not a free market make.


Blackrock buys real estate with Federal Reserve notes that have no limits in supply. They can "overpay" because they are using an asset they have an unlimited supply of. Overpaying by 20% doesn't matter to them because more is just a phone call away.  

As usual, you're completely wrong, but that's okay.

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## Krugminator2

> That "cure" only works in a free market. Unlimited Federal Reserve notes to select insiders does not a free market make.
> 
> 
> Blackrock buys real estate with Federal Reserve notes that have no limits in supply. They can "overpay" because they are using an asset they have an unlimited supply of. Overpaying by 20% doesn't matter to them because more is just a phone call away.  
> 
> As usual, you're completely wrong, but that's okay.


You should read Economics in One Lesson. Good foundation and gets rid of fuzzy thinking. 

This article by Walter Block is also useful for this topic. https://fee.org/articles/the-benefits-of-speculation/

Systematically overpaying for something is not a winning strategy.  It doesn't matter how much money you have or have access to. At some point you have to sell.  And if you have a lot of inventory to unload that depresses price and in the meantime taking inventory off the market would encourage people to build. The laws of economics are undefeated.

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## ClaytonB

> That "cure" only works in a free market. Unlimited Federal Reserve notes to select insiders does not a free market make.


^ This




> Blackrock buys real estate with Federal Reserve notes that have no limits in supply. They can "overpay" because they are using an asset they have an unlimited supply of. Overpaying by 20% doesn't matter to them because more is just a phone call away.  
> 
> As usual, you're completely wrong, but that's okay.


And even if Blackrock isn't getting "free inflationary cash", no matter, _they're just a drop in the literal ocean_ of cash spewing out of the money-fountain in DC. In fact, most of it ends up going into "defense" spending. This is why it is so important to keep the MIC fully employed at all times. The true purpose of the central bank is not for the government to buy things -- rather, its primary purpose is to light the distributed savings/capital of the general public on fire because distributed savings/capital makes Marxist takeover impossible. "Paper assets" like stocks, mutual funds, bonds, etc. don't count because those are already in the custody of the banking system and can be seized at the snap of the fingers. Marxist takeover is only possible when the vast majority of liquid wealth is in the hands of the central-planners (whether through outright revolution or, as in the case of the US, through a "boiling the frog" approach).

The Agenda is the same as it was since Marx wrote Das Kapital. Nothing has changed.

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## Matt4Liberty

> You should read Economics in One Lesson. Good foundation and gets rid of fuzzy thinking. 
> 
> This article by Walter Block is also useful for this topic. https://fee.org/articles/the-benefits-of-speculation/
> 
> Systematically overpaying for something is not a winning strategy.  It doesn't matter how much money you have or have access to. At some point you have to sell.  And if you have a lot of inventory to unload that depresses price and in the meantime taking inventory off the market would encourage people to build. The laws of economics are undefeated.


You keep assuming that the unlimited money printing of the MMT system you support has no affect on the market. Just because currently there are still people willing to buy something for the FED's IOUs doesn't mean that Blackrock isn't well aware of the worthlessness of them, and they have an unlimited supply. You can't overpay with something that has a value of zero.


Trying to justify your MMT planned economy with free market rules is like trying to use baseball rules in hockey. It does not work. You can site whatever you want. That's the ultimate scam of the MMT central planner. Trying to make markets out to be some magic form of sourcery. Only the great wizards Powell and Yellan can save us. We commoners can't understand the markets.

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## Krugminator2

> You keep assuming that the unlimited money printing of the MMT system you support has no affect on the market. Just because currently there are still people willing to buy something for the FED's IOUs doesn't mean that Blackrock isn't well aware of the worthlessness of them, and they have an unlimited supply. You can't overpay with something that has a value of zero.
> 
> 
> Trying to justify your MMT planned economy with free market rules is like trying to use baseball rules in hockey. It does not work. You can site whatever you want. That's the ultimate scam of the MMT central planner. Trying to make markets out to be some magic form of sourcery. Only the great wizards Powell and Yellan can save us. We commoners can't understand the markets.


Good take. Money is worthless so that means houses are free.  And the law of supply and demand is repealed because of something about MMT, Janet Yellen,  and wizards.

Makes sense.

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## Matt4Liberty

> Good take. Money is worthless so that means houses are free.  And the law of supply and demand is repealed because of something about MMT, Janet Yellen,  and wizards.
> 
> Makes sense.


Your little show of always pretending the point went way over your head is getting old. You keep pushing your MMT and then claim to be for free markets. Somehow though, you conflate Blackrock having unlimited FRNs to "free markets."

Blackrock has as many FRNs as they want. FRNs are not money. They are debt coupons created out of thin air. Blackrock has no worry of devaluing those FRNs or any sort of need for "value" in terms of FRN value. It's like a cheet code in a video game. It doesn't matter if they buy a house at $500,000 that should be worth $400,000. All the money printing will inflate the price past that anyway. Yet somehow this is all free markets. Yeah OK. Let me know if you need this translated into Sinhala again so you can understand.

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## ClaytonB

> Good take. Money is worthless so that means houses are free.  And the law of supply and demand is repealed because of something about MMT, Janet Yellen,  and wizards.
> 
> Makes sense.

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## Krugminator2

> You keep pushing your MMT and then claim to be for free markets.


I have a lot of posts over 8 years. Feel free to find one quote pushing MMT. Just one.  Go ahead.




> FRNs are not money. They are debt coupons created out of thin air.


Money - a current medium of exchange in the form of coins and banknotes; coins and banknotes collectively

Dollars are money.




> Your little show of always pretending the point went way over your head is getting old.




I regurgitated your point. No credible economist thinks like you or says anything close. You are an economic illiterate.

For example




> It doesn't matter if they buy a house at $500,000 that should be worth $400,000.




That's pretty daft. 

Or this gem... 




> People always ask me if I want mortgage rates at 12% and I always say yes. Prices wouldn't be artificially high and you would have real savings rates.

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## Brian4Liberty

> ...
> Systematically overpaying for something is not a winning strategy.  It doesn't matter how much money you have or have access to. At some point you have to sell.  And if you have a lot of inventory to unload that depresses price and in the meantime taking inventory off the market would encourage people to build. The laws of economics are undefeated.


And how does that apply to the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds at above market prices?

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## oyarde

> 


The dropoff from the mid 1960's to now is incredible. People really dont understand it as far as I can tell .Of course a big part of the working population would have become accustomed to this in the late 80's to now.

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## oyarde

> And how does that apply to the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds at above market prices?


At a set amount every month weather it is needed or not for years at a time . Crazy town is how I see it. You'd think AOC was running the Fed.

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## Brian4Liberty

> ...
> Blackrock has as many FRNs as they want. FRNs are not money. They are debt coupons created out of thin air. Blackrock has no worry of devaluing those FRNs or any sort of need for "value" in terms of FRN value. It's like a cheet code in a video game. It doesn't matter if they buy a house at $500,000 that should be worth $400,000. *All the money printing will inflate the price past that anyway.* Yet somehow this is all free markets. ...


And that’s the key. Forward looking at prices.

Monetary inflation leads to price inflation. Being the first person to get that new money means you spend stronger dollars, in anticipation that those dollars will decrease in value after it flows into the system. You anticipate higher prices in the future, as you are part of the inflationary system that drives those prices higher.

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## Krugminator2

> And how does that apply to the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds at above market prices?



Blackrock is a publicly traded company that has a fiduciary duty to shareholders.  They are in business to make money. Systematically overpaying for houses for whatever conspiratorial reason would interfere with making money. The Federal Reserve conducts monetary and doesn't exist to make money.




> And that’s the key. Forward looking at prices.
> 
> Monetary inflation leads to price inflation. Being the first person to get that new money means you spend stronger dollars, in anticipation that those dollars will decrease in value after it flows into the system. You anticipate higher prices in the future, as you are part of the inflationary system that drives those prices higher.


If you think prices are going up, you by definition aren't overpaying. That is called speculation. Credit worthy borrowers have no trouble getting access to loans right now if they want to make that bet. Nobody is stopping you from making the same bet on housing as Blackrock.

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## ClaytonB

> The dropoff from the mid 1960's to now is incredible. People really dont understand it as far as I can tell .Of course a big part of the working population would have become accustomed to this in the late 80's to now.


Jorg Guido Hulsmann: The Cultural and Spiritual Legacy of Fiat Inflation




> In the old days, saving was typically done in the form of hoarding gold and silver coins. It is true that such hoards did not provide any revenuethe metal was "barren"and that they therefore did not lend themselves to the lifestyle of rentiers. But in all other respects money hoards were a reliable and effective form of saving. Their purchasing power did not just evaporate in a few decades, and in times of economic growth they even gained some purchasing power.
> 
> Most importantly, they were extremely suitable for ordinary people. Carpenters, masons, tailors, and farmers are usually not very astute observers of the international capital markets. Putting some gold coins under their pillow or into a safe deposit box saved them lots of sleepless nights, and it made them independent of financial intermediaries...
> 
> ... Things are not much better for those who have already accumulated some wealth. It is true that inflation does not force them into debt, but in any case it deprives them of the possibility of holding their savings in cash. Old people with a pension fund, widows, and the wardens of orphans must invest their money into the financial markets, lest its purchasing power evaporate under their noses. Thus they become dependent on intermediaries and on the vagaries of stock and bond pricing.
> 
> It is clear that this state of affairs is very beneficial for those who derive their living from the financial markets. Stockbrokers, bond dealers, banks, mortgage corporations, and other "players" have reason to be thankful for the constant decline of moneys purchasing power under fiat inflation. But is this state of affairs also beneficial for the average citizen? In a certain sense, his debts and increased investment in the financial markets are beneficial for him, given our present inflationary regime.
> 
> When the increase of the price level is perennial, private debt is for him the best available strategy. But this means of course that without government interventionism into the monetary system other strategies would be superior. The presence of central banks and paper money make debt-based financial strategies more attractive than strategies based on prior savings...
> ...

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## Madison320

> High prices mean more profits, which means more supply brought to market, which means lower prices and normalized profits. The cure for high prices is high prices. 
> 
> Lumber is down 50% since the peak when he highlights that article.


That works for some things but not for necessities like food. I read a book by a guy who lived thru 3 hyperinflations, 2 in Argentina and 1 in Chile. He said assets like home prices collapsed while food skyrocketed. People had to sell assets to buy food.

If high prices cured high prices there would never be high inflation.

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## ClaytonB

> That works for some things but not for necessities like food. I read a book by a guy who lived thru 3 hyperinflations, 2 in Argentina and 1 in Chile. He said assets like home prices collapsed while food skyrocketed. People had to sell assets to buy food.
> 
> If high prices cured high prices there would never be high inflation.


It works for everything -- high prices are the cure for high prices. The trouble is that it works for _everything_, even money itself. So when a market is flooded with cash, the price of cash itself (its purchasing power) must fall. Therefore, there will always be a secular rise in all prices in the presence of monetary expansion. This was even true during the gold/silver era, it's just that monetary expansion could never occur very quickly because mining is so costly. Gold/silver inflows-outflows also occurred as a result of the insane bimetallist policies that governments would institute. But even these were nothing compared to modern inflation which has devalued the dollar to a tiny fraction of its value in the course of just a century (there are people born before the Federal Reserve was established who are still alive today...)

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## Brian4Liberty

> Blackrock is a publicly traded company that has a fiduciary duty to shareholders.  They are in business to make money. Systematically overpaying for houses for whatever conspiratorial reason would interfere with making money. The Federal Reserve conducts monetary and doesn't exist to make money.
> 
> If you think prices are going up, you by definition aren't overpaying. That is called speculation. Credit worthy borrowers have no trouble getting access to loans right now if they want to make that bet. Nobody is stopping you from making the same bet on housing as Blackrock.


I’m not addressing whatever conspiracy hypothesis you are talking about.

But any given fund has a purpose and objectives. If it invests in the S&P 500, it invests in the S&P 500 whether it is going up or down. It has to buy it. Likewise, a fund that invests in residential real estate has to invest in residential real estate. And with the amount of money they have to invest, they are not going out bargain hunting and lowballing. They pay top prices to ensure that they can acquire property and fulfill that investment purpose.

Supply and demand. Demand increases, prices go higher. Pretty basic.

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## Brian4Liberty

> That works for some things but not for necessities like food. I read a book by a guy who lived thru 3 hyperinflations, 2 in Argentina and 1 in Chile. He said assets like home prices collapsed while food skyrocketed. People had to sell assets to buy food.
> 
> If high prices cured high prices there would never be high inflation.


The fundamental error in the application of big picture theories to real time, real life is that they don't apply in real time. There are far too many variables. You are hungry and don't have any food? Don’t worry, prices will rise, and farmers will meet your demand. You just have to wait a year. You can go without food for a year, can’t you?

Likewise, when housing is the issue, the real world is not a thought experiment. The solution is build more houses? How long does that take? How much open land is there? There may well be no space to build. It can take a long time to convert suburban areas into Hong Kong style urban sky scrapers. People don’t want to sell their property for redevelopment. Creating more housing may take a long time, more time than you have.

The Chinese came up with a solution to the commoditization of residential housing. Build huge cities of high rise condos in the middle of nowhere and sell them. Ghost towns of unoccupied homes. Is it smart? Is it efficient? Is it a good use of land? Is it a good investment? No, but’s a pure “market solution”. It should make Gordon Gekko happy.

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## CaptUSA

> The fundamental error in the application of big picture theories to real time, real life is that they don't apply in real time. There are far too many variables. You are hungry and don't have any food? Don’t worry, prices will rise, and farmers will meet your demand. You just have to wait a year. You can go without food for a year, can’t you?
> 
> Likewise, when housing is the issue, the real world is not a thought experiment. The solution is build more houses? How long does that take? How much open land is there? There may well be no space to build. It can take a long time to convert suburban areas into Hong Kong style urban sky scrapers. People don’t want to sell their property for redevelopment. Creating more housing may take a long time, more time than you have.
> 
> The Chinese came up with a solution to the commoditization of residential housing. Build huge cities of high rise condos in the middle of nowhere and sell them. Ghost towns of unoccupied homes. Is it smart? Is it efficient? Is it a good use of land? Is it a good investment? No, but’s a pure “market solution”. It should make Gordon Gekko happy.


Nominal rigidity.  Or, price "stickiness".  Wage prices are historically far more sticky than products and services.  Another reason why price inflation kills the lower classes.  But those who can take advantage of nominal rigidity will benefit.

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## ClaytonB

> The fundamental error in the application of big picture theories to real time, real life is that they don't apply in real time. There are far too many variables.


This is simply not true. Sound economic theory -- that is, the Austrian school of economics -- has no problems with the complexity of the real world because it's not pretending to "model" the real-world, as the modern "quantitative economics" theories do. Rather, sound economic theory is a theory of human behavior, in particular, human action. Human action is human action, whether there is an abundance or famine.




> Likewise, when housing is the issue, the real world is not a thought experiment. The solution is build more houses?


No, the solution is to allow the market to do what it does best -- economize. Two families can live in one home if they have to. Rooms can be sub-let. Garages/basements can be converted. Camping trailers can be used as a living space, at least for a while. People who were debating the idea of off-grid living can be pushed off the fence by a rise in housing prices. And so on, and so forth. When the crunch really is that bad, high prices compel those with low demand for housing to economize their use of it, freeing up housing for those with high demand for it; at the same time, high prices incentivize developers (who may have significant idle capacity) to build more housing. Project timelines can be moved up, project-management is not Moses with the ten commandments... everything is flexible/negotiable. Money moves, so when prices rise, things move faster.




> People don’t want to sell their property for redevelopment.


And high prices help change their minds...




> The Chinese came up with a solution to the commoditization of residential housing. Build huge cities of high rise condos in the middle of nowhere and sell them. Ghost towns of unoccupied homes. Is it smart? Is it efficient? Is it a good use of land? Is it a good investment? No, but’s a pure “market solution”. It should make Gordon Gekko happy.


China is the exact opposite of free markets. And Gordon Gekko is no spokesman for the free market, he's a spokesman for greed, and says as much in the movie. The Marxist smear of capitalism is that "capitalism is greed", but genuine free markets have nothing to do with greed. The best entrepreneur is the one who learns to serve and to love serving. Putting the customer first has become a meaningless buzz-phrase nowadays but it used to mean something.... just goes to show how deeply printing-press money corrupts a society and its markets...

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## Brian4Liberty

> This is simply not true. Sound economic theory -- that is, the Austrian school of economics -- has no problems with the complexity of the real world because it's not pretending to "model" the real-world, as the modern "quantitative economics" theories do. Rather, sound economic theory is a theory of human behavior, in particular, human action. Human action is human action, whether there is an abundance or famine.


And no matter what actions that human's take, there are still many variables out of the control of humans. People might starve to death, it happens. And trite quips about the free market don't change basic facts today. I am advocate and supporter of true free markets, but I don't wear it like a religion, along with all of the usual mantras. It does work best in the long run.




> No, the solution is to allow the market to do what it does best -- economize. Two families can live in one home if they have to. Rooms can be sub-let. Garages/basements can be converted. Camping trailers can be used as a living space, at least for a while. People who were debating the idea of off-grid living can be pushed off the fence by a rise in housing prices. And so on, and so forth. When the crunch really is that bad, high prices compel those with low demand for housing to economize their use of it, freeing up housing for those with high demand for it; at the same time, high prices incentivize developers (who may have significant idle capacity) to build more housing.


Agree.




> Project timelines can be moved up, project-management is not Moses with the ten commandments... everything is flexible/negotiable. Money moves, so when prices rise, things move faster.


I have to laugh, due to real world experience. Depends upon where you are. Is ten years a long time? I've seen many projects for building housing last longer than that.




> And high prices help change their minds...


But not always.




> China is the exact opposite of free markets.


But in what way was the building of massive amounts of housing (supply) to meet investor demand the opposite of free markets?




> And Gordon Gekko is no spokesman for the free market, he's a spokesman for greed, and says as much in the movie. The Marxist smear of capitalism is that "capitalism is greed", but genuine free markets have nothing to do with greed. The best entrepreneur is the one who learns to serve and to love serving. Putting the customer first has become a meaningless buzz-phrase nowadays but it used to mean something.... just goes to show how deeply printing-press money corrupts a society and its markets...


The printing press is not the root of all evil, just the majority of it.

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## Brian4Liberty

> Nominal rigidity.  Or, price "stickiness".  Wage prices are historically far more sticky than products and services.  Another reason why price inflation kills the lower classes.  But those who can take advantage of nominal rigidity will benefit.


I was thinking of using the term "supply stickiness". The supply of some things can not be increased very fast. Gold, bitcoin, housing...

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## oyarde

> I’m not addressing whatever conspiracy hypothesis you are talking about.
> 
> But any given fund has a purpose and objectives. If it invests in the S&P 500, it invests in the S&P 500 whether it is going up or down. It has to buy it. Likewise, a fund that invests in residential real estate has to invest in residential real estate. And with the amount of money they have to invest, they are not going out bargain hunting and lowballing. They pay top prices to ensure that they can acquire property and fulfill that investment purpose.
> 
> Supply and demand. Demand increases, prices go higher. Pretty basic.


that is an interesting point , if your dumping big sums your just taking what is available , not looking for bargains

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## Krugminator2

> That works for some things but not for necessities like food.
> 
> If high prices cured high prices there would never be high inflation.


Food is the  textbook example of where price signals work.  If the price of soybeans rises relative to wheat, farmers will plant soybeans to earn a higher profit. The extra supply will prevent soybean prices from running away to the upside and ultimately bring them back down.

inflation is a monetary phenomenon not something caused by speculators buying houses or businessman. Rising home prices are a market signal that encourages buyers to economize and builders to bring more supply to market. Those actions check unduly high prices. Speculators don't cause high home prices. They only speed up adjustment to whatever prices should be. And if a speculator does push up home prices and their economic forecast is in error, they will lose money as prices fall.

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## Brian4Liberty

> And how does that apply to the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds at above market prices?





> ... The Federal Reserve conducts monetary and doesn't exist to make money.
> ...


Isn't the Federal Reserve made up of banks that exist to make money?

This is the Ron Paul Forums, so just blowing off the Federal Reserve as if they are a benevolent organization doesn't hold water. What they do (monetary inflation) is very destructive to the economy as a whole, and to many segments of the economy. Purchasing debt instruments and manipulating the entire interest rate market is central planning at it's worst. There is no free market interest rate discovery.

Go to the 12:44 mark. It's very basic to what Ron Paul is about.

Prices Rise & Standards of Living Fall -- Yet The Fed Keeps Printing Like Crazy

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## ClaytonB

> Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
> ... The Federal Reserve conducts monetary and doesn't exist to make money.
> ...
> 			
> 		
> 
> Isn't the Federal Reserve made up of banks that exist to make money?


The Federal Reserve is a private entity created by an act of Congress, a bit like the USPS. As such, it is regulated separately from other kinds of private entities -- importantly, it is not subject to FISA, Congressional oversight or other public accountability mechanisms. This makes the Federal Reserve a legal black-hole in respect to public policy. Even the CIA has to report to Congress through the intelligence oversight committee. Nor does the Federal Reserve directly answer to executive authority under the US President, although the relationship is obviously inherently cooperative. The stated reason for this arrangement is "independence" from the government, I guess to prevent corruption or something, who knows. The real reason is to shield the Federal Reserve from the apparatus of national power which is why the Federal Reserve has never been a friend of US nationalism and has consistently supported economic policy that is consistent with the aims of the globalists.




> This is the Ron Paul Forums, so just blowing off the Federal Reserve as if they are a benevolent organization doesn't hold water. What they do (monetary inflation) is very destructive to the economy as a whole, and to many segments of the economy. Purchasing debt instruments and manipulating the entire interest rate market is central planning at it's worst. There is no free market interest rate discovery.


Indeed. And the insidiousness of the effects of inflation is not limited to ever-rising prices and economic collapses:

The Non-Price Effects of Monetary Inflation




> In this article, we have challenged the common view that monetary inflation automatically leads to increases in prices of consumer products. Changes in prices are always a result of conscious actions of entrepreneurs who, in response to the rising prices of means of production—and according to the Cantillon effect, an increase in money supply does not affect all prices uniformly and simultaneously—may apply other strategies, consisting in decreasing the quantity of product or reducing its quality, keeping the nominal prices unchanged.
> 
> Thus, monetary inflation is a factor passed over in the literature that may be partially responsible for downsizing and decreasing quality of some products. From this perspective, the above-mentioned actions taken by entrepreneurs do not have to result from their ill will or inherent greed, but from their effort to remain in business in inflationary and competitive environment. Therefore, it seems that the Austrian theory of inflation should be extended to incorporate non-price effects of monetary inflation.
> 
> The non-price effects of increases in the money supply clearly show that the impact of monetary inflation on innovation is negative. Instead of promoting products of higher quality, entrepreneurs spend scarce resources to hide the increase in an effective price through changing packaging or reducing quality, which is detrimental to innovation. That impact does not have to be direct, but can result from cutting costs through limiting expenditures on investments.


The Cultural and Spiritual Legacy of Fiat Inflation




> The notion that inflation is harmful is a staple of economic science. But most textbooks underrate the extent of the harm, because they define inflation much too narrowly as a lasting decrease of the purchasing power of money (PPM), and also because they pay scant attention to the concrete forms of inflation. To appreciate the disruptive nature of inflation in its full extent we must keep in mind that it springs from a violation of the fundamental rules of society.
> 
> Inflation is what happens when people increase the money supply by fraud, imposition, and breach of contract. Invariably it produces three characteristic consequences: (1) it benefits the perpetrators at the expense of all other money users; (2) it allows the accumulation of debt beyond the level debts could reach on the free market; and (3) it reduces the PPM below the level it would have reached on the free market.
> 
> While these three consequences are bad enough, things get much worse once inflation is encouraged and promoted by the state (fiat inflation). The government’s fiat makes inflation perennial, and as a result we observe the formation of inflation-specific institutions and habits. Thus fiat inflation leaves a characteristic cultural and spiritual stain on human society...


Reference for those who would like to learn the factual history of the Federal Reserve:

----------


## Madison320

> Food is the  textbook example of where price signals work.  If the price of soybeans rises relative to wheat, farmers will plant soybeans to earn a higher profit. The extra supply will prevent soybean prices from running away to the upside and ultimately bring them back down.
> 
> inflation is a monetary phenomenon not something caused by speculators buying houses or businessman. Rising home prices are a market signal that encourages buyers to economize and builders to bring more supply to market. Those actions check unduly high prices. Speculators don't cause high home prices. They only speed up adjustment to whatever prices should be. And if a speculator does push up home prices and their economic forecast is in error, they will lose money as prices fall.


Higher prices will reallocate production to different areas, but it can't increase overall production. So in you example the price of soybeans will come down but at the expense of wheat prices. 

Do you really think the US has increased it's overall productive capacity over the last 12 years considering how far left we've moved?

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## ClaytonB

> Higher prices will reallocate production to different areas, but it can't increase overall production. So in you example the price of soybeans will come down but at the expense of wheat prices. 
> 
> Do you really think the US has increased it's overall productive capacity over the last 12 years considering how far left we've moved?


This is not completely correct. All or nearly all of the monetary expansion by the Fed is concomitant with lower interest rates (because the injection-point of new money into the economy is the commercial banks, which are credit institutions... free cash for them translates to lower interest rates on loans), so the economy is, in fact, stimulated in terms of increased production (new investments -> increased production). But the problem is that this increased investment is not based on a _prior reduction in popular consumer spending or other expenditures for the purposes of building capital_. Therefore, the "price signal" of interest rates becomes distorted. In a sound money economy, savers increase savings _in response to higher interest rates_, and vice-versa. The artificial lowering of interest rates punishes would-be savers so they are forced to either invest or consume. So the entire economy is driven into a situation of simultaneous over-investment and over-consumption and _this_ is the cause of the business cycle, as so well explained by Austrian economists...

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## oyarde

Fed Philly pres says employment significantly down , probably near 11 million jobs off. Atlanta Fed Pres says employers reluctant to hire because of future uncertainty and he expects Fed will raise rates in 2022 and not wait to 2023. Basically all signs are negative. Even if GDP evens up back where it was , there wont be much growth , congress still off the rails with spending , the Fed still buying 120 billion per month while pushing infrastructure drugs , inflation is high and rising , workforce participation is too low , there are more takers than givers. I  see complete , total failure.

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## Madison320

> This is not completely correct. All or nearly all of the monetary expansion by the Fed is concomitant with lower interest rates (because the injection-point of new money into the economy is the commercial banks, which are credit institutions... free cash for them translates to lower interest rates on loans), so the economy is, in fact, stimulated in terms of increased production (new investments -> increased production). But the problem is that this increased investment is not based on a _prior reduction in popular consumer spending or other expenditures for the purposes of building capital_. Therefore, the "price signal" of interest rates becomes distorted. In a sound money economy, savers increase savings _in response to higher interest rates_, and vice-versa. The artificial lowering of interest rates punishes would-be savers so they are forced to either invest or consume. So the entire economy is driven into a situation of simultaneous over-investment and over-consumption and _this_ is the cause of the business cycle, as so well explained by Austrian economists...


That's a good point, although I'm not sure how much you can print and get the overall economy to overproduce, since there's a limited amount of resources.

If you had 2 guys on an island, one is a coconut farmer and the other is a fisherman, would a pile of money make them able to increase their production? Maybe to a certain extent.

----------


## ClaytonB

> That's a good point, although I'm not sure how much you can print and get the overall economy to overproduce, since there's a limited amount of resources.
> 
> If you had 2 guys on an island, one is a coconut farmer and the other is a fisherman, would a pile of money make them able to increase their production? Maybe to a certain extent.


With such a small economy, of course, changes in the monetary commodity cannot alter production in any meaningful sense. One way to see how inflation in a modern economy increases production is to consider idle production resources (mothballed factories, dormant manufacturing lines, dormant mines, resting agricultural land, etc.) These resources can be brought online virtually overnight. They were deactivated in response to market conditions, meaning, prices fell too low to continue at the former level of production. But if prices rise, these resources can be reactivated and brought online. In fact, this is one of the major arguments that Keynes and other economists made for inflation during periods of unemployment -- we have all these "idle production resources" and we also have unemployed people, might as well put them to work on these mothballed production lines!!

You can see how this concept naturally extends into new investments, that is, the building of _new_ factories, addition of _new_ production lines, opening of _new_ mines, development of _new_ agricultural land, and so on. Investment tends to fluctuate inversely with interest rates since cheap money is easier to pay back much later, whereas business loans with high interest rates are at greater risk of creating losses on the balance sheet if the expansions don't turn out to be as profitable as expected.

It's crucial to keep in mind that these artificially cheap loans are driving increased investment _in the absence of genuine price signals from consumers_. The reason these investments were too risky/unprofitable prior to money-printing is that consumers were not demanding additional goods/services of that variety. We can say there is no real demand for this increased production. And yet, we are pouring _real_ resources into these projects. So this is why the Austrians call this the misallocation or discoordination of economic resources caused by inflation. The price signals are being jammed or disrupted by the central bank which is creating an illusion of increased demand in the absence of an increase in real demand (by consumers). So we get container ships full of cheap Chinese garbage that nobody really wanted to begin with at absurdly low prices overflowing from the shelves of our stores. Material production has absolutely been increased, but at what cost??

All the resources that were poured into these massive investments to produce plastic knockoffs of quality products could have gone to other, more valuable uses (as judged by consumers) instead. Maybe we would have a larger artisan / handmade / homegrown / farmers market / bespoke economy today if it weren't for inflation. I'm not saying it's necessarily the case since these are very costly ways to produce goods. But the point is that higher price is how consumers signal demand for higher quality goods, not just higher quantity. And inflation is certainly driving increased quality in very select consumer goods --- those demanded by people working in the heavily inflation-subsidized financial/banking sector! So we see that the redistribution effect of inflation -- explained _ad nauseum_ by the Austrian economists going back to Mises and even earlier -- is not "theory" at all, it's a brute fact that anyone can observe with their own two eyes.

As a starting-point, check out the two articles I linked above regarding the destructive effects of inflation. I like to point people to these articles to open their eyes to the _broader_ destructive effects of inflation. The Keynesians/Krugmanites always want to reduce the discussion to some kind of abstract mathematical argument over arcane "models" of economics. But the majority of the real damage of inflation is not even measurable via monetary calculation. Inflation is an insidious corruption not only of the economy, but of culture, faith, family and the very structure of our communities...

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## oyarde

Along with Mays inflation you have personal income down 2 percent compounding the inflation problem while consumer spending is flat .Personal savings rate down over two percent . Just no positive news to be found.

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## Matt Collins



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## Madison320

> With such a small economy, of course, changes in the monetary commodity cannot alter production in any meaningful sense. One way to see how inflation in a modern economy increases production is to consider idle production resources (mothballed factories, dormant manufacturing lines, dormant mines, resting agricultural land, etc.) These resources can be brought online virtually overnight. They were deactivated in response to market conditions, meaning, prices fell too low to continue at the former level of production. But if prices rise, these resources can be reactivated and brought online. In fact, this is one of the major arguments that Keynes and other economists made for inflation during periods of unemployment -- we have all these "idle production resources" and we also have unemployed people, might as well put them to work on these mothballed production lines!!
> 
> You can see how this concept naturally extends into new investments, that is, the building of _new_ factories, addition of _new_ production lines, opening of _new_ mines, development of _new_ agricultural land, and so on. Investment tends to fluctuate inversely with interest rates since cheap money is easier to pay back much later, whereas business loans with high interest rates are at greater risk of creating losses on the balance sheet if the expansions don't turn out to be as profitable as expected.


I think we agree on the main point, that screwing with the market price of money leads to all kinds of disasters. 

I think the business cycle is more a case of misallocated production, not a case of more overall production. If someone tries to open a new mine they have to take resources from somewhere else, right.? I'm guessing if you looked at countries that tried to stimulate their economy, their net production actually decreased. I know that's the case for the US. Easy money has caused our production to collapse. Everyone is staying home and ordering stuff from China.

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## ClaytonB

> I think we agree on the main point, that screwing with the market price of money leads to all kinds of disasters. 
> 
> I think the business cycle is more a case of misallocated production, not a case of more overall production.


It's _both_...




> If someone tries to open a new mine they have to take resources from somewhere else, right.?


In the short-run, yes, but in the medium-run (when the mine begins operation), the total amount of production in the economy will be increased. Aggregate production measures like "GDP" tend to conceal misallocation, however -- "Oh wow, national production has increased!" But there wasn't market demand for increased mining (for example), so the new mines that are opening are feeding into a market that was already at equilibrium, and they will have the effect of artificially lowering prices in that market. This will, in turn, "stimulate" all other secondary products that consume the output of this mine as a factor of production. For example, if the price of steel goes down, this will stimulate the building of more cars. But the pre-inflation condition was already one of market equilibrium, so the artificial lowering of steel prices has come at the cost of disrupting the market's price signals which were already allocating the resources in the economy to where they were most demanded. Thus, inflation is a "jamming" signal. It shuts down the coordinating effect of prices in the economy, necessarily leading to misallocation/discoordination.




> I'm guessing if you looked at countries that tried to stimulate their economy, their net production actually decreased. I know that's the case for the US. Easy money has caused our production to collapse. Everyone is staying home and ordering stuff from China.


In the long-run, absolutely. The most apt metaphor would be performance-enhancing drugs. They really do enhance performance. But they do so at the cost of long-run health. The body is not designed to sustain such artificially stimulated levels of activity, diet, exercise, etc. so the body's systems wear down at an accelerated rate -- accelerated aging (and ultimately, death). Of course, the economy is not exactly like a body, but the metaphor is serviceable.

----------


## oyarde

Fed still buying 120 billion per month . New jobs report out . Unemployment went from 5.8 to 5.9 . Markets up as that is perceived as good news .

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## oyarde

US jobless claims tick up to 373K . At some point here the Fed is going to throw in the towel on employment dreams , go back on everything they have said all along , dozens of times and raise rates over 1/4 percent. Clearly they have no idea what they are doing ,The question is how will that effect the markets ? Because right now the Dow is poised for 35K by Tue.

----------


## oyarde

CPI up another percent in June , most in 13 years . West Texas Crude and Brent Crude both up again over 1 1/2 percent ea . Gold ( and silver ) , the only bargains out there never reached higher than 1818.40 .  On another continent , South African mining industry grows 21.9 percent in May .

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## Warrior_of_Freedom

It's like a bad episode of Shark Tank. "I'll give you $5,000, but you pay 20% more for food in perpetuity."

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## oyarde

US Wholesale prices post largest 12 month jump  on record . Producer Price Index inflated 7.3 percent . . All but .8 percent of that has been racked up since December.

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## oyarde

US retail sales down 1.7 percent in May , up .6 percent in June for a combined total of negative 1.1.

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## acptulsa

> US Wholesale prices post largest 12 month jump  on record . Producer Price Index inflated 7.3 percent . . All but .8 percent of that has been racked up since December.





> US retail sales down 1.7 percent in May , up .6 percent in June for a combined total of negative 1.1.


Higher prices on lower sales.  Sounds like stagflation to me.

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## oyarde

Thats one way to look at it , what we currently have are huge price increases for  a lesser variety of goods and the FRN is devalued every day . Pretty predictable . Symptoms of failed state .

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## Matt Collins



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## Matt Collins



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## oyarde

US homebuilder confidence falls to 11 month low in July. Dow futures up 186 after biggest loss day this yr. Gold still a bargain at 1820.

----------


## oyarde

One yr oil forecast at 77.00 , oil looks to be at 70 soon.

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## oyarde

US launching air strikes to support Afghan ground operations.

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## oyarde

Weekly jobless claims near 420K as inflation continues .

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## oyarde

Bombing in Afghan picking up intensity , Dow hits 35K . Gold still a bargain at 1804.

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## oyarde

On the bright side the Great Hoosier state now imports more FRN's in goods from Ireland and Canada than china . chicoms at number three . In at number four is Denmark ahead of the japs .

----------


## oyarde

Soon troop withdrawal from Iraq will be announced as Iraq prime minister will demand withdrawal of combat troops which could be as few as 2500.

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## oyarde

132K without power in Mich from storms last night , 96K in the county surrounding Detroit.

----------


## oyarde

Fauci now out saying some americans will need kung flu booster shot.

----------


## oyarde

General McKenzie ( US Central Command ) says the US is ready and preparing to continue to bomb the taliban . Intensity expected to pick up big time between now an Aug 31.

----------


## oyarde

Dow still over 35K , if it lost 20 percent it would still be 3K over the 52 week low . Thats pretty amazing if you think about it .

----------


## oyarde

Housing boom declared over as new home sales fall to plague low . 6.6 percent under May levels and 20 percent below June  2020. Supply reaching a 6 1/3 month level , twice what it was last fall .

----------


## oyarde

Biden wants to declare mandatory vaccines for Fed employees. And you thought mail delivery was bad the past two years .

----------


## oyarde

US Coast Guard cutter intercepts 882 lbs of cocaine estimated at 16 million. They should drop it of here for destruction.

----------


## oyarde

Since california has so many resources they have extended state run health care to illegals age 50 and up .

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## oyarde

America , in its continued fail in mnfg state imports 1 1/2 percent more than previous to a record 236.7 billion while exports decline .3 percent to 145 billion . ( June numbers ) . No good news as crude moves over 72 and inflation is hot while the housing market declines.

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## oyarde

tesla planning to hike US prices so they can use it to compete in china.

----------


## oyarde

RIP Dusty Hill , ZZ Top bassist passes away in Houston in his early 70's . Biden approval rating falling , currently at 46 percent which is only 5 better than Trump at this point in his presidency. Look for biden to continue to slide as he pushes vaccines , masks , continues being an enemy to American energy , inflation and oil continue to rise and the dollar becomes more worthless.

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## oyarde

dow futures up 161 , gold still a bargain at 1827. US GDP misses expectations for second quarter by two percent . Net exports down about 1/2 percent , trade deficit moves to second largest ever . Residential investment on a downward trend .

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## oyarde

Most US workers face two percent or more paycut simply from inflation.

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## oyarde

Ten yr treasury at risk of going below 1.1 soon , Feds Waller says Sept taper may be warranted and he would back it if the next two jobs reports are acceptable . Dow falls , Gold still a bargain , only reached 1821.10 today .  Stocks entering the time of year where traditionally they dont avg gains . Rep Don Beyer has a new Crypto bill in Congress .

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## ClaytonB

> Most US workers face two percent or more paycut simply from inflation.


Annually. And it's more like 3% even according to official CPI. But official CPI specifically does not count food, fuel, utilities and the other core costs of a typical American household. The intangible benefit of higher resolution gaming monitors, however, is counted by the official CPI and acts as a discount against inflation because a monitor with more pixels in 2021 akshually counts as 1.5 or 2 lower-resolution monitors from 2015. Therefore, even though the price has risen slightly, you are actually receiving more "hedonic value" per dollar. So inflation _seems_ to be going up but it is akshually going down. 

Also, even if your paycheck was raised 3% per year like clockwork (so-called "cost-of-living pay-raise") _timing matters_.



In this table, for the first year, your expenses and income were equal. In the second year, however, expenses rise by 3%. At the end of the second year, because prices have risen, your employer gives you a 3% raise to "offset inflation". Every year after that, both your expenses and your income increase by a 3% annual compound rate -- yet you keep falling further and further behind. This is why I despise the "yeah, but income rises with inflation, too" argument. It's an absolute insult to everyone's intelligence to even make that argument. How stupid do you think people are??

----------


## oyarde

Krauts send Warship to south china sea , chicoms will be very scared. ED will let us know if any jews or **** are in there.

----------


## oyarde

> Annually. And it's more like 3% even according to official CPI. But official CPI specifically does not count food, fuel, utilities and the other core costs of a typical American household. The intangible benefit of higher resolution gaming monitors, however, is counted by the official CPI and acts as a discount against inflation because a monitor with more pixels in 2021 akshually counts as 1.5 or 2 lower-resolution monitors from 2015. Therefore, even though the price has risen slightly, you are actually receiving more "hedonic value" per dollar. So inflation _seems_ to be going up but it is akshually going down. 
> 
> Also, even if your paycheck was raised 3% per year like clockwork (so-called "cost-of-living pay-raise") _timing matters_.
> 
> 
> 
> In this table, for the first year, your expenses and income were equal. In the second year, however, expenses rise by 3%. At the end of the second year, because prices have risen, your employer gives you a 3% raise to "offset inflation". Every year after that, both your expenses and your income increase by a 3% annual compound rate -- yet you keep falling further and further behind. This is why I despise the "yeah, but income rises with inflation, too" argument. It's an absolute insult to everyone's intelligence to even make that argument. How stupid do you think people are??


I think the problem will be compounded by various other factors now . It looks as though the economy already peaked and is in decline . The inflation still to be there but growth could return to the doldrums of the usual dismal growth. What Americans are going to get now is just more of the same , debt , printing , costs rising more than the increasing wages and a dollar of no value .

----------


## oyarde

As inflation continues to rise daily bidens approval rating drops to just 9 points above his disapproval rating , expected to slide more soon as economic growth slows while inflation continues and covid " positive tests "  becomes rampant among the 70 percent vaccinated.

----------


## oyarde

Jobs report produces almost half the jobs expected . Peak has come and gone . Gold and silver still a bargain , Gold only reaching 1834 this morning and still just slightly under the 200 day avg currently , silver reached 26 but has settled back in at 25 1/2.

----------


## oyarde

Airstrikes galore in southern Afghanistan , Mexico suing US arms makers , NH main jailed for squatting for 30 years. Australia  puts 378.6 million in reparation fund for Aboriginals taken from homes in youth.

----------


## oyarde

Former Fed Gov Kroszner says he thinks inflation will let up in a yr or two as growth slows. I somehow fail to find that as comforting as he meant it to be .

----------


## oyarde

Venezuela to drop six zeros from currency value . Here unemployment is down to 5.4 percent according to dept of labor or about two percent more than the pre plague scare numbers of 3 1/2. Missing 5.7 million jobs . About 27 percent of the job increases were in food and drink and those all may still slide again as dirty marxist leaders start new restrictions . Dow up, silver dropped 3 1/3 percent, practically free. Putting the imaginary spot paper silver price at 7 1/2 gallons of gasoline .

----------


## ClaytonB

> the imaginary spot paper silver price


Oh come on, paper silver investors regularly demand physical delivery! It's all real!!

----------


## oyarde

A 2021 variety two silver eagle would still be 33.59 with shipping to purchase wholesale this morning so if you mark it up about 15 percent your at the real silver price  I reckon , those guys probably dont know what one looks like.

----------


## oyarde

US now using B -52 Bombers and Spectre Gunships on the Taliban.

----------


## oyarde

Three Maasai children killed by lions in Tanzania near the Ngorongoro conservation area . One child escaped just injured.The lions will be relocated.

----------


## oyarde

Indian Army troops on the border with Chicoms are now being armed with Sig Sauer 716 rifles and Swiss MP 9's. I havnt used a MP 9 ( more like a poker night with Danke type weapon)but for mountain warfare the Sig is a good choice due to the range.

----------


## oyarde

Dem senate soon to roll out 3 1/2 trillion budget with rumors of lots of green energy grant monies and tax preference . Dollar Tree earnings expected to continue taking the big hit on continued inflation . Bitcoin breaks through 46K , Dow down 125 , S & P pretty flat , down 7 , Nascrap up slightly. The more interesting move is oil down with West Texas reaching as far as 11 1/2 percent below two weeks ago with chicom plague restrictions expected and speculation on lower demand for commodities. While US has over 10 million job openings and employment still  many millions below pre plague levels. Ten year treasury around 1.2. Dont squint too hard looking for the good news in there because I dont see any . Basically all this down slide  is happening because people are stupid , because of  of govt.'s and the fact the fed might quit buying junk.

----------


## oyarde

Consumer inflation expected to really tick up now .

----------


## oyarde

CPI Still running hot for July around 5 1/2 percent , similar to June . So far no sign it has peaked in the first 1 1/2 weeks of august inflation just keeps on chooglin'. Gold still a bargain  only reaching 1755.80 today, Dow up 220  to 35485 .

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## oyarde

Seems the fed may be out of options . Assuming next yr they raise rates , they'll never be able to raise them enough to keep inflation as low as growth. Unless I'm missing something your dollar will continue to be worth less every day.

----------


## oyarde

The university of Michigan's consumer confidence polling slumps 11 percent from previous month, over 1 1/2 percent below April 2020 plague shutdown month.

----------


## oyarde

Chicoms close Ningbo - Zhoushan port . Due to covid . Meaning the end to cheap goods for americans. Rising costs will add to the inflation

----------


## oyarde

retail sales lower than expected , down about 1 1/2 percent in July while inflation is still high . So no change in the cycle . Less goods , less goods bought , higher prices.

----------


## oyarde

Biden approval rating plunges 7 points this week. Could be lowest in history by Christmas . Bank of America predicting 7 percent decline yet this yr in S & P .

----------


## oyarde

Weekly unemployment claims expected to still exceed 340K . Still 2.8 million on unemployment as businesses close for lack of employees. Dow could slide more as Fed decides to taper later this yr.

----------


## oyarde

Goldman Sachs economists slash 3rd quarter US growth estimates nearly in half to a very optimistic 5 1/2 percent , hoping it stays with inflation . Deep down they are also skeered how fascist gov.'s will react to Danke variant Sars. Texas dems return to statehouse , hopefully they will have a public hanging of them all .

----------


## Madison320

> CPI Still running hot for July around 5 1/2 percent , similar to June . So far no sign it has peaked in the first 1 1/2 weeks of august inflation just keeps on chooglin'. Gold still a bargain  only reaching 1755.80 today, Dow up 220  to 35485 .


The flaws in the CPI are really getting exposed now that inflation is ramping up. Almost all the measures of inflation are showing rates of 10-20% year over year while the CPI is around 5%. My guess is the CPI is about half of the actual number. When the CPI is 1% and the true rate is 2% it is not that noticeable but when the CPI is 5% and the true rate is 10% it becomes more obvious.

By the way my inflation hedging investments are getting killed by inflation.

----------


## oyarde

Interview today with Ron Paul on Afghanistan  on Kitco news .

----------


## oyarde

All Chevy Bolts recalled for fire risk . 1K Nabisco workers strike over 12 hour shifts . Might lead to a better job opening for Danke.  Santa Rosa bike theft sting operation nets two arrests . Danke was not apprehended .Taliban leader , gun grabber in chief biden spotted today supporting the taliban going door to door seizing weapons.

----------


## oyarde

Roanoke Virginias first gun buyback netted 91 guns for slightly more than 14k in grocery giftcards. Started at 11 am and shut down early when ran out of giftcards .

----------


## oyarde

After massive fraud ( more than 15 million ) will illinois revamp the unemployment system ? Estimates are as high as a  billion in fraud in the past 23 billion pd out .

----------


## oyarde

weekly jobless claims come in at 353k. 2.862 million on unemployment

----------


## oyarde

13 dead American soldiers today at Afghanistan Kabul airport gate . Needless , there shouldnt be any Americans in the Afghan $#@!hole by now. Complete and total failure by biden. America has never been weaker.

----------


## oyarde

Gold reaching 1812.20 this morning  so far , platinum 1012.

----------


## oyarde

France and Britain have concluded withdrawal from Afghanistan .  I decided to help the SAS since they seem more like fighters and I've worked with them before. How is Danke doing getting the last 630 'Mericans out ? Not too well , they dont know where 280 of them are and he hasnt yet picked a DUI lawyer.

----------


## oyarde

Turkey is bombing Iraq and Syria it appears in support of ISIS. US drone detonates ISIS K vehicle loaded with explosives in Kabul today also. Our new Central Command spokesman is a Navy Capt. I'm thinking it would be more entertaining to get a good Army  Chaplain. Dems working on new plan for 800 billion in tax increases for two more 1400 dollar stimulus checks. That should fuel some more inflation and further erode the value of a dollar. House budget was already 3 1/2 trillion separate from infrastructure bill and tax revenue will be down as business flees overseas. 150 MPH winds arrive is Southeast Louisiana . Canadian steel product prices up 51 percent yr over yr.

----------


## oyarde

Will social security get a 6 percent inflation increase this yr to drive more inflation ? We shall see.

----------


## oyarde

Tonight Pentagon will announce official completion of US withdrawal from the Afghan.

----------


## oyarde

44 container ships backed up off the coast of Caly. Caly ports represent about 40 percent of the incoming china junk for americans . Avg wait time in LA is about 8 days. Shanghai to Chicago now avg of one month longer . Improvements expected in 2023 .

----------


## oyarde

AOC and the other mentally challenged dems in congress are asking biden to replace powell at the fed . They demand the fed wield the power of climate changes with your worthless FRN's .

----------


## Madison320

> AOC and the other mentally challenged dems in congress are asking biden to replace powell at the fed . The demand the fed wield the power of climate changes with your worthless FRN's .


Yeah, I saw that. What do they want the Fed to do exactly? Print money and buy windmills? How is any of even remotely the responsibility of the federal reserve? One of the dumbest comments she's ever made and that's saying something.

----------


## oyarde

> Yeah, I saw that. What do they want the Fed to do exactly? Print money and buy windmills? How is any of even remotely the responsibility of the federal reserve? One of the dumbest comments she's ever made and that's saying something.


crazy town most certainly

----------


## ClaytonB

> Yeah, I saw that. What do they want the Fed to do exactly? Print money and buy windmills? How is any of even remotely the responsibility of the federal reserve? One of the dumbest comments she's ever made and that's saying something.


I think they're planning to acquire Mega-Maid...

----------


## oyarde

The plague shutdowns have hurt social security and they are burning through the FRN's faster than they expected. Right now able to make payments for 12 more full years . Will then require a 25 percent cut . After the govt went out of its way to create inflation and make the dollar worthless .

----------


## oyarde

The IRS is currently planning on giving Hurricane Ida victims more time to file taxes for 2020.

----------


## oyarde

Rasmussen poll shows 52 percent think it best biden resign , only 39 percent disagree but also expect it would be worse under harris. Only 38 percent say she is qualified.

----------


## oyarde

Bitcoin over 50K , Gold up to 1832 earlier this morning . No numbers expected to get where the fed would like in the next couple months.

----------


## oyarde

Prices rising , Unemployment at 5.2 percent while millions no longer look for work , Fed leaving rates near zero into next yr , work force participation still 2 percent below pre plague levels , vaccinations dont prevent the plague , service industry losing jobs. Where will it lead ?

----------


## Madison320

> The plague shutdowns have hurt social security and they are burning through the FRN's faster than they expected. Right now able to make payments for 12 more full years . Will then require a 25 percent cut . After the govt went out of its way to create inflation and make the dollar worthless .


Yeah I was reading some recent articles about SS running out of money earlier than they thought. Whenever I read blatantly wrong stuff like that is gives me more confidence that I'm right. The SS trust fund never had any money in it. All they have are treasury notes which is the same as nothing because it's simultaneously and asset and a liability. It's the same as writing a check to yourself. If I write a check to you it's an asset to you (and a liability to me). But if I write a check to myself it an asset and a liability so it cancels itself out. What gets me is that it's not a secret conspiracy, it's right out in the open but they still claim there's "money in the trust fund".

----------


## acptulsa

> Yeah I was reading some recent articles about SS running out of money earlier than they thought. Whenever I read blatantly wrong stuff like that is gives me more confidence that I'm right. The SS trust fund never had any money in it. All they have are treasury notes which is the same as nothing because it's simultaneously and asset and a liability. It's the same as writing a check to yourself. If I write a check to you it's an asset to you (and a liability to me). But if I write a check to myself it an asset and a liability so it cancels itself out. What gets me is that it's not a secret conspiracy, it's right out in the open but they still claim there's "money in the trust fund".


I understand why you think it's not a secret.




But as far as the propagandists are concerned, anything they haven't said this week is so completely forgotten that it is secret.  Even stuff we've known for more than a century, like vitamin C fights a cold, and don't lie flat when you have chest congestion or you might get pneumonia.

The sad thing is, for a large swath of the population, they're right.

----------


## oyarde

India gold imports up 3 billion yr over yr in Aug , up nearly fifty percent to 6.7 billion.

----------


## oyarde

American tourism to Canada is done . Fifteen percent of 2019 levels last month. Done in by canadian restrictions. Bye Canada .

----------


## oyarde

The economy is contracting yet costs are still going up and there are still shortages of goods. I dont think I'd be expecting good news between now and Thanksgiving .

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Inflation is taking off. I noticed some small grocery items have really gone up. $1 up to $3. $2.25 up to $2.50. $1.99 up to $3.99, etc.

They really screw the poorest people the most.

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/scotthortonshow/...30065598332932

----------


## Matt Collins



----------


## oyarde

Fauci says it is too early to cancel Christmas. Thats code for he plans to make that announcement later.

----------


## oyarde

Feds next scheduled meetings look to be   Nov 2 & 3 , Dec 14 & 15. Not expecting much from them .

----------


## oyarde

Inflation out of control now.  West Texas Light Sweet Crude 78.93 ( up 1.7 percent ) , Brent Crude 82.56 ( up 1.3 percent ) One year oil forecast 90.00 , Heating Oil 2 1/2 , Nat Gas 6 1/3 ( up 8.7 percent ), Wholesale gasoline up 2.1 percent to 2.36. Looking like a cold winter in New England.

----------


## oyarde

One yr oil forecast hits 91.00 as Brent Crude breaks well over 80 to 82.39 , West Texas Light Sweet Crude should make 80 tomorrow at 79.35 now . Wholesale gasoline up to 2.37 . That means 3.40 at the pump soon I'd surmise . Gold looks like the only bargain left . Gas could be 4 by Christmas , deisel will be.

----------


## oyarde

High inflation looks like a lock the rest of this calendar yr.

----------


## ClaytonB

> High inflation looks like a lock the rest of this calendar yr.

----------


## Occam's Banana

>

----------


## ClaytonB

>

----------


## Occam's Banana

Bloomberg headline (story behind paywall):

Transitory Inflation? The Fed Should Strive to Make It Permanent
*America Needs Higher, Longer-Lasting Inflation*
_The benefits of moderately rising prices and wages outweigh the costs_
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...e-it-permanent
_Karl W. Smith (11 October 2021)_

----------


## oyarde

actually i think if we consider the fact our GDP only  goes up on avg of 1.9 percent per year since 2006 low inflation was the only thing keeping any standard of living for the peasants. We can be sure that  wages will not keep pace with any inflation higher than our dismal growth once they greatly exceed 2 or 3 percent based on the past couple decades .

----------


## oyarde

Fastenal CEO says inflation has moved from massive ( three months ago ) to brutally high fo shipping , matls and overseas shipping .

----------


## oyarde

One yr oil forecast moves up to 92.00 with the new daily inflation as West Texas Light Sweet moves over 80.

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## oyarde

Gold moves to 1794 this morning , silver 23.21 . No real reason Gold isnt 1800 to 2K and silver 30. We shall see what the future holds other than tax increases , high inflation , high prices , wages that wont keep up , less people working , higher debt, 4 doll gas and deisel  and the IRS checking your bank account for 600. Heating oil still over 2 1/2 , Nat Gas still over 5 1/2. Big winter heating bills coming starting in Nov .Just in time for a Christmas of empty shelves. Next downturn could start Jan. , surely likely to start before the next Jan . Nothing like the product of govt .

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1448702322540941317

----------


## TheTexan

> Daily out of control third world inflation continues in America as one yr oil forecast reaches 96 on 7 yr high for oil.


No worries, it is "transitory", indeed...

----------


## oyarde

> No worries, it is "transitory", indeed...


Ya , transitory , LOL . I think its safe to say that since oil only has to rise 17 percent to break over 100 that within the next year we will see that unless the economies collapse and there is no demand.

----------


## CaptUSA

> No worries, it is "transitory", indeed...


Maybe it's only identifying as transitory....

----------


## ClaytonB

> Maybe it's only identifying as transitory....


LOL -- "Don't hurt inflation's feelings, it identifies as 'real economic growth'..."

----------


## Madison320

> Ya , transitory , LOL . I think its safe to say that since oil only has to rise 17 percent to break over 100 that within the next year we will see that unless the economies collapse and there is no demand.


This debt ceiling holdup is messing up the spending and borrowing. They need to clear that up to smooth the path for $150 oil. And they will.

----------


## oyarde

Gas stations across Iran are closed . Cyber attack rendering iranian govt subsidized fuel cards useless . Only gas stations outside the network that only take cash ( few) are operational . Iranians pay 20 cents a gallon while the govt picks up the tab ( marxist paradise ). In 2019 the iranian govt is believed to have killed 304 protesters over an increase in gas prices in the govt crackdown .

----------


## oyarde

US Fed Comm commission voted to cancel permission for china  telecom to operate in the US.

----------


## oyarde

GDP looking like a lock to be a let down , continuing the modern times trend .

----------


## oyarde

Avg gasoline price in San Fran hit 4.75 Thurs . Highest ever US avg for a city .

----------


## oyarde

US supreme court rejects religion challenge to Maine shot mandate for health care workers. Gamestop CEO leaving after 7 months .

----------


## oyarde

Looks like the govt will run out of money by as early as a week and a half before Chrismas.

----------


## oyarde

Deutche bank predicting chinese recession starts in Jan,

----------


## oyarde

Today in 1895 the ottomans perpetrate the massacres of Amida exterminating 100K Greeks. In Oct , the 24th through 29th in 1929 the Dow had dropped 25 percent .. Tomorrow is 2 Nov so at least we avoided those so far this yr.

----------


## oyarde

Since we know the fed will not be aggressive with the taper or rate increases and that inflation through next yr is a lock our only entertainment left is guess the inflation and gold price by end of June . I'll guess 5 percent reported inflation .

----------


## Madison320

> Avg gasoline price in San Fran hit 4.75 Thurs . Highest ever US avg for a city .


That doesn't sound right. I'm pretty sure it was higher back in 2007 or so?

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/sta...24199809245190

----------


## oyarde

Dow up 300 on omega - Xi plague and retail decline news. Not much logic there but who am I to say .

----------


## oyarde

US inflation  inflation pressures growing in Dallas . 95 Texas manufacturers were surveyed. 60 percent have raised wages , 90 percent expect inflation to last through 2022. ( From Dallas Fed survey ) .

----------


## oyarde

Bank of America expecting S & P to close out 2022 lower than current .

----------


## Occam's Banana

LOL

https://twitter.com/business/status/1465707440725393414

----------


## oyarde

Time to remove " the honorable " off the name plate too .

----------


## oyarde

Irish central bank adds gold for first time in 12 years .

----------


## Madison320

> LOL
> 
> https://twitter.com/business/status/1465707440725393414


Yeah, that was hilarious! That's a slick alternative to saying "We were wrong".

Peter Schiff said it reminded him of the comedy show Happy Days where Fonzie was unable to say he was wrong, all he could do was say "I was wrr".

You have to be old enough for that one.

----------


## acptulsa

..



>

----------


## CaptUSA



----------


## Madison320

> ..


Actually banks are one of the greatest advancements in society. It's government CENTRAL banks that are the problem.

----------


## acptulsa

> Actually banks are one of the greatest advancements in society. It's government CENTRAL banks that are the problem.


And what bank is pictured there?  You don't recognize it?

----------


## Madison320

> 


I'd add that the free market solves the supply chain problems thru voluntary interaction. The state screws it up by using force.

----------


## Madison320

> And what bank is pictured there?  You don't recognize it?


Federal Reserve?

You may not but many people think ALL banks are bad.

----------


## oyarde

British royal mint seeing strong demand for physical gold with Nov 30th being the second largest sales day of the yr ( doing twice the normal volume ) with ten ounce bars being the most popular product ( avg joe isnt buying those ). Mint says the Christmas season is usually a slow time for them but not expecting that this yr with inflation the driving factor . Perth Mints Nov gold sales nearly double

----------


## oyarde

With persistant inflation now is the time for legislation to eliminate sales taxes on food in the states that do that. Get on your state rep .

----------


## CaptUSA



----------


## Occam's Banana

> 


Remy!!! _You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to CaptUSA again._

... HAMILTON STARTED THIS PLACE, THAT'S WHY THE PRINTER GOES BURR! ... 

... IT COSTS AN ARM AND A LEG. WHERE AM I? THE SAUDI CONSULATE? ... 

... CHARMIN MIGHT RUN OUT OF PAPER, SON, BUT GUESS WHO NEVER DOES? ...

----------


## oyarde

November was the 18th straight month of CPI inflation increases. Inflation at 6.8 percent. Consumer spending expected to drop in Jan. Inflation much higher than wage increases.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

Meanwhile, paper silver prices continued to drop for the past year and a half...

----------


## oyarde

Dow up 66 points .LOL

----------


## oyarde

> Meanwhile, paper silver prices continued to drop for the past year and a half...


Wholesale silver eagles still around 31 3/4 with shipping for dealers for a nearly perfect 33 percent disconect .

----------


## oyarde

Accurate , short article at Washington Examiner titled  CBO blows lid off bidens agenda as Bidenflation shows its teeth . Check it out . Has the real price tag for build back better bill .

----------


## oyarde

At the feed store today I noticed chicken feed up 61.4 percent over pre plague price. On 50 lb bags , it went first 9.99 to 12.99 , now to 16.29. Thats probably enough for me to give up the egg business.

----------


## Occam's Banana

Gotta keep that "circular flow" groove on ...

https://twitter.com/business/status/1470174641691967490

----------


## RJB

The socialist doesn't value hard work or goods.  The socialist is obsessed with equal distribution of paper money.  It why they end up with hundreds of billionaires waiting in line for a few loaves of bread.

----------


## oyarde

I noticed also yesterday the pork ribs at the butcher up 33 percent.

----------


## oyarde

Wholesale prices up another ten percent in Nov. The doom is upon you now , the inflation cannot be escaped .

----------


## Cleaner44

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts

----------


## oyarde

double digit inflation , interest rates rising 2 percent between 2022 and 2024 while inflation keeps on going .

----------


## Occam's Banana

Because "pandemic" ...

https://twitter.com/jeremykauffman/s...78092302368771

----------


## oyarde

Senate raises debt ceiling 2 1/2 trillion to finish out this yr.

----------


## oyarde

Here is the deal . The fed is going to spend the next 27 or so  months raising the interest rate to 2 percent or so  . Meanwhile the stock markets are most likely to take a dive . While all thats going on there is still going to be inflation , next year a lot of it based on wholesale and mnfg costs now. Wages will be inflated but they are not going to keep up .Poorer people are becoming poorer by the day. Workforce participation and GDP are dismal . Be a good time for people to start doing something for representation that is willing to remove govt from business.

----------


## oyarde

Rumors are Dodge will discontinue Hemi V8

----------


## Matt Collins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dqjj6FNel80

----------


## oyarde

On the ground in Turkey , real inflation about 50 percent . Maybe that will make your 11 or 15 percent easier.

----------


## Occam's Banana

> Because "pandemic" ...
> 
> https://twitter.com/jeremykauffman/s...78092302368771


https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/...23771178123270

----------


## oyarde

I'm enjoying my fresh groud sausage and hashbrowns this morning. Any of you peasants want something , see Danke for current pricing on stale , generic pop tarts.

----------


## oyarde

Rumors are S&P will dump evergrande into the default bin .

----------


## Madison320

> Here is the deal . The fed is going to spend the next 27 or so  months raising the interest rate to 2 percent or so  . Meanwhile the stock markets are most likely to take a dive . While all thats going on there is still going to be inflation , next year a lot of it based on wholesale and mnfg costs now. Wages will be inflated but they are not going to keep up .Poorer people are becoming poorer by the day. Workforce participation and GDP are dismal . Be a good time for people to start doing something for representation that is willing to remove govt from business.


Yup, we're in a tightening cycle, although right now it's just barely less loose. I suspect that my inflation based investments are going to go down until the next loosening cycle. The good news is I don't think this tightening cycle is going to last very long, maybe less than a year. I'm guessing they finish the taper and get in a few .25 rates hikes and then some sort of debt based disaster will occur and they have to drop rates back to zero and launch the biggest QE yet. 

The tightening cycles keep getting shorter and weaker, while the loosening cycles are getting longer and stronger. So I'm just going to relax and be patient and wait for this tightening cycle to end.

----------


## oyarde

Without the two trillion social spending bill in the senate being added to debt Goldman Sachs revises down estimated GDP growth for first three quarters of 2022 to an avg of 2.5 . Seems a little optimistic to me  , I think anything over 2 is.

----------


## oyarde

Biden extends federal student loan repayment pause through May 01 . Govt doesnt need the money

----------


## Occam's Banana

> 


And right on cue:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1476151886378065924

----------


## CaptUSA

> And right on cue:
> 
> https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1476151886378065924


Love 'em or hate 'em, Reason is right on cue, too:

----------


## Matt Collins



----------


## oyarde

Another 7 percent in Dec , so about 10 .

----------


## Occam's Banana

Just relax, everyone.

There's nothing to be concerned about.

The Fed has got this ...

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1480923726506041353

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/statu...23200593289220

----------


## Okie RP fan

January is set to be higher than December's 7%. Can't imagine it is any less than that. All other indicators are still rising as we enter the second half of the month. 

But yea, this is fine.

----------


## oyarde

Actually it has three percent to go up just to catch up with production costs.

----------


## acptulsa



----------


## acptulsa



----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## TheTexan

You can run on for a long time, run on for a long time...  but sooner or later, inflation gonna cut you down

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## Occam's Banana

> https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1483425033376747521

----------


## devil21

Prices are jumping every time I go grocery shopping.  Most notable increase that I follow is the crab meat price.  A can of claw meat was $12.99 a year ago.  Same can is now $27.99.

----------


## Madison320

> Prices are jumping every time I go grocery shopping.  Most notable increase that I follow is the crab meat price.  A can of claw meat was $12.99 a year ago.  Same can is now $27.99.


I still firmly believe that the most accurate long term driver of inflation is the fed's balance sheet. If it wasn't it would mean we could all just stay home and let the Fed send us checks.  

The balance sheet is 9 times larger than it was in 2008 so ultimately prices should follow. In other words the price rises we've seen over the past year are just the tip of the iceberg.

My guess is commodity prices will fall a little while the Fed is in this "tightening cycle" and then go ballistic later this year when all hell breaks loose and they launch an even bigger round of QE and set rates back to zero. I don't really watch the CPI, it's too rigged. I look at commodity prices like gold, oil, wheat, copper, etc. I think they'll all be making record highs later this year.

----------


## ClaytonB

Mises Institute: Will the Fed Pop the Everything Bubble? -- 01/26/2022 Daniel Lacalle

----------


## ClaytonB

> 


I'm throwing a flag on "What Austrian economists think it is" -- move that under the burglar, and the meme will be salvaged (mostly). Austrians are crystal-clear that inflation is theft through counterfeiting.

----------


## acptulsa

> I'm throwing a flag on "What Austrian economists think it is" -- move that under the burglar, and the meme will be salvaged (mostly). Austrians are crystal-clear that inflation is theft through counterfeiting.


Austrians _ don't_ think it's tyrants like Wilson blowing bubbles?  You know, picking a lock and committing burglary aren't so mutually exclusive...

----------


## ClaytonB

> Austrians _ don't_ think it's tyrants like Wilson blowing bubbles?  You know, picking a lock and committing burglary aren't so mutually exclusive...


The implication of the meme is that Austrians are in the same boat as all others who don't realize that inflation is really burglary. If that's not what the meme-maker intended, he failed...

----------


## acptulsa

> The implication of the meme is that Austrians are in the same boat as all others who don't realize that inflation is really burglary. If that's not what the meme-maker intended, he failed...


Whatever, dude.  Only "what Keynesians think" is wrong.  I think monetarists and capitalists know it's the dollar shrinking.  I think capitalists and Austrians know it happens when the intaglio presses go brrrr.

And I think the meme-maker intended to make a meme, and in that particular meme form (a well-established precedent) the last frame is the punch line, and the punch line is, "What it really is".  So if you want to break orthodoxy and go all heretical, go make your own damned memes!

----------


## ClaytonB

> Whatever, dude.  Only "what Keynesians think" is wrong.  I think monetarists and capitalists know it's the dollar shrinking.  I think capitalists and Austrians know it happens when the intaglio presses go brrrr.
> 
> And I think the meme-maker intended to make a meme, and in that particular meme form (a well-established precedent) the last frame is the punch line, and the punch line is, "What it really is".  So if you want to break orthodoxy and go all heretical, go make your own damned memes!


Don't make me come down there and fix that meme myself...

----------


## Occam's Banana

National Enquirer >>> CNN / CNBC / Bloomberg / etc.

----------


## oyarde

National debt cruises past   30 trillion today . Keeps on Chooglin' like the inflation .

----------


## oyarde

Private sector loses jobs in Jan  ( more than 300k ) making the forecast a loser by 508K and marking the first decline in 13 months . Decline is in the air for first quarter but expect no improvement on inflation. Trade , Transportation and utilities losing 62K jobs a large negative sign. Only mining showed improvement on the real job list. No improvements expected next month.

----------


## oyarde

Dow could be headed  right back to 36K at this rate. March numbers looming large now because the Jan / Feb numbers could all be $#@! .

----------


## oyarde

Meta disaster and your amazon prime is going up 20 . Oyarde not effected.

----------


## oyarde

Record silver sales in Jan at Perth mint .

----------


## oyarde

new inflation number 7 1/2 percent

----------


## Occam's Banana

> new inflation number 7 1/2 percent

----------


## oyarde

South Afrika mining sectors grew 11.2 percent last yr . Here in the pelosi - schumer- biden - harris amerika the only 11 percent you'll see is decline of the value of the FRN.

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## oyarde

biden sending 3k more troops to poland to skeer putin. Should help the economy in poland , just not yours .

----------


## oyarde

With inflation beginning the out of control spiral and the feds lack of general interest in the process I think its time to speculate when the next recession sets in

----------


## Madison320

> With inflation beginning the out of control spiral and the feds lack of general interest in the process I think its time to speculate when the next recession sets in


Assuming they stop doing QE my guess is they only get a few rate hikes before we get a crash and they go back to 0% and resume QE. Their cure for price inflation will be price controls. Then you'll see real shortages. 

At some point things will get so bad that the Fed will be forced to raise rates, let the economy crash and force the US to default on it's debt. But I think we're a long way from that.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Assuming they stop doing QE my guess is they only get a few rate hikes before we get a crash and they go back to 0% and resume QE. Their cure for price inflation will be price controls. Then you'll see real shortages. 
> 
> At some point things will get so bad that the Fed will be forced to raise rates, let the economy crash and force the US to default on it's debt. But I think we're a long way from that.





> I am currently working on an article for The Hill, discussing all of the reasons why monetary policy became too expansionary in late 2021. One reason I cite is the Feds reluctance to move fast. Theyve seen evidence of overheating for several months, but fear another taper tantrum if they move too quickly to tighten policy.
> 
> In fact, the 2013 taper tantrum is widely misunderstood. The problem was not that the Fed tightened policy unexpectedly, its that the Fed tightened policy _inappropriately_, at a time when unemployment was 7.5%. *The markets dont fear unstable policy instruments, they fear bad macroeconomic outcomes.*
> 
> *Today, a tightening of policy is overdue*. A new article in the *Financial Times* discusses how things are very different from back in 2013. Heres the headline:


https://www.themoneyillusion.com/why-2022-is-different/

----------


## oyarde

Oil up oil down makes no difference , that double digit grocery store inflation  is gonna keep on chooglin'

----------


## Krugminator2

> Think Oil pulls back 10% or so here but might not be a super smooth ride. A lot things lined up to keep it from going much higher. Technically very overbought using a few different metrics. Exchanges raising margin requirements. Using strategic reserve



That wasn't one of my better takes

----------


## oyarde

Dow down to 32, 324  , gold 1937 ,  inflation going up , one yr oil forecast 105

----------


## Madison320

> Dow down to 32, 324  , gold 1937 ,  inflation going up , one yr oil forecast 105


Oil is way up, gold is up but my oil and gold stocks are getting killed!

----------


## Madison320

> That wasn't one of my better takes


I still think commodities will pull back while the Fed is "attempting" to tighten. But at some point the tightening will crash the markets and the Fed will reverse course in a big way and then I think we'll see new all time highs in the commodities.

----------


## Krugminator2

> I still think commodities will pull back while the Fed is "attempting" to tighten. But at some point the tightening will crash the markets and the Fed will reverse course in a big way and then I think we'll see new all time highs in the commodities.



I got sloppy and didn't take into consideration how big of impact the invasion would have on prices. If price moves against you 6% in something like oil you $#@!ed up in a big way.  That said, the trade is more likely than not going to end up "working" over the next couple of weeks. Might not be 10% from where I wrote that initially but probably sells off. Kind of think all this is priced into stocks and commodities. We'll see though.

----------


## Madison320

> I got sloppy and didn't take into consideration how big of impact the invasion would have on prices. If price moves against you 6% in something like oil you $#@!ed up in a big way.  That said, the trade is more likely than not going to end up "working" over the next couple of weeks. Might not be 10% from where I wrote that initially but probably sells off. Kind of think all this is priced into stocks and commodities. We'll see though.


So at this moment oil is up about 4% gold 1%, the major indexes are down like 1%, but my oil and gold stocks are down from 4%-8%!

I'm not a short term guy so it's not a big deal but I'm curious as to what you think is causing this? I'm sure it's some sort of weird effect of the war but not sure what.

----------


## oyarde

Gold 1914.40 . Inflation high. I'm still expecting Gold to even out around 1926 by Mon. but who knows. The one thing I know is costs are still rising .

----------


## Krugminator2

> So at this moment oil is up about 4% gold 1%, the major indexes are down like 1%, but my oil and gold stocks are down from 4%-8%!
> 
> I'm not a short term guy so it's not a big deal but I'm curious as to what you think is causing this? I'm sure it's some sort of weird effect of the war but not sure what.


So many of the oil stocks were set up to be shorts going into the spike in oil. It was interesting though how so many of the bigger ones went down immediately before the price of oil like SLB, HAL, DVN. 

Markets are forward looking. Some had moved for months in anticipation of this Russian event. Once the event happens the fear and uncertainty subsides. Buy the rumor, sell the news event. It is so simple and such and old piece of wisdom but it works.

As far as gold everyone (including me I was long Palladium and sold most  gold two days before the big overnight spike but still had some) going into this invasion When everyone is on one side of the boat there is no one left to buy short term.

----------


## Madison320

> Ya but any GOP running for house or senate should point out the trillions more in wasteful spending bills the dems were planning for this yr to make it much worse.


Remember though, when the GOP had trump and the house and senate, spending went way up, more than during obama (except for obama's first 2 years when the dems had total control). 

That being said I do think now that we have price inflation republicans are more likely to slow spending then the democrats.

----------


## oyarde

Fed still going to raise rates in Mar I reckon . I'm not expecting it to have any effect on inflation. Do nothing fed too little too late to do anything for the avg joe.

----------


## Madison320

Just about all the commodities are making all time highs. Wheat, corn, copper, gold, etc.

To me that's a more accurate inflation gauge than the CPI. The surprising thing to me is that it took this long to make new highs considering how much we've printed since the last time those highs were made back 2012. I guess that's the luxury of having the reserve currency.

I still think we have a ton of catching up to do before commodities get back in proportion with the amount of dollars that have been printed (otherwise know as the federal reserve's balance sheet). Plus the demand for dollars has nowhere to go but down. Is there any doubt that China is planning on dumping their dollars?

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## oyarde

2004.70 looks like this months high for gold so far , oil at 13 yr high , dow futures down 400

----------


## oyarde

gasoline prices and gold set new record highs today. inflation picking up steam .

----------


## Madison320

> gasoline prices and gold set new record highs today. inflation picking up steam .


It was less than two years ago that pretty much every mainstream economist said we had to worry about deflation not inflation. And they'd been saying that for the last 10 years.

I kept saying that makes no sense that they're afraid of deflation because the Fed can instantly create massive amounts of inflation anytime they wanted. It's inflation that they were really worried about, for good reason because the only way to fight inflation is to cause a massive financial crisis much worse than 2008.

----------


## oyarde

Feds balance sheet of bonds estimated at 9 trillion by Apr 01 . Inflation keeps on chooglin .

----------


## ClaytonB

> It was less than two years ago that pretty much every mainstream economist said we had to worry about deflation not inflation. And they'd been saying that for the last 10 years.
> 
> I kept saying that makes no sense that they're afraid of deflation because the Fed can instantly create massive amounts of inflation anytime they wanted. It's inflation that they were really worried about, for good reason because the only way to fight inflation is to cause a massive financial crisis much worse than 2008.


It's two lies for the price of one. If the Fed should ever contract the money supply (and it can do this as easily as it can expand it), this would almost certainly trigger another deflationary collapse, ala 1929. So, the threat of deflationary collapse is very real, but the Fed is the only one that can pull that lever.

----------


## oyarde

I'm a steamroller now , baby  , I'm bound to roll all over you. In another 20 days we enter the beginning of the 12th month of the worst inflation in the history of the US while the fed has done nothing but make it worse. Will the sheep citizens continue  to let the kremlin to treat them this way ? I predict yes.

----------


## Madison320

> It's two lies for the price of one. If the Fed should ever contract the money supply (and it can do this as easily as it can expand it), this would almost certainly trigger another deflationary collapse, ala 1929. So, the threat of deflationary collapse is very real, but the Fed is the only one that can pull that lever.


That's true. They can contract the money supply but since everything will collapse there's enormous political pressure not to. But expanding the money supply makes everybody happy in the short run so it's easier politically.

Most mainstream economists were worried about a deflationary collapse if the Fed didn't keep expanding their balance sheet. But that's just wrong. The only way we get overall deflation is if the Fed contracts.

Another thing is that the Fed can never reduce their balance sheet back to 0. The assets they own are worth way less than their liabilities.

----------


## Madison320

> I'm a steamroller now , baby  , I'm bound to roll all over you. In another 20 days we enter the beginning of the 12th month of the worst inflation in the history of the US while the fed has done nothing but make it worse. Will the sheep citizens continue  to let the kremlin to treat them this way ? I predict yes.


How is the Kremlin treating us?

----------


## oyarde

> How is the Kremlin treating us?


the peasants are not doing well and no reprieve in sight

----------


## ClaytonB

> That's true. They can contract the money supply but since everything will collapse there's enormous political pressure not to.


The other way to look at it is that the Fed's deflationary-collapse lever is a kind of political nuke that they can use to force Congress or whoever to get in line with whatever its agenda happens to be.

----------


## oyarde

Pink Floyd will remove music from russia . Inflation still out of control .

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## Occam's Banana

> Pink Floyd will remove music from russia.


Oh, they will, will they ... ?

https://twitter.com/IGN/status/1502449550862299137

----------


## Occam's Banana

> Inflation still out of control.


Business Insider has the answer! (They've since changed the title to "Experts are battling over price controls: a radical, long-dead inflation fix that's either the silver bullet for America's runaway prices or a recipe for total economic catastrophe". LOL)

And these insights are "premium" content they want you to pay for.

https://www.businessinsider.com/pric...y-chaos-2022-3

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## Madison320

> Business Insider has the answer! (They've since changed the title to "Experts are battling over price controls: a radical, long-dead inflation fix that's either the silver bullet for America's runaway prices or a recipe for total economic catastrophe". LOL)
> 
> And these insights are "premium" content they want you to pay for.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/pric...y-chaos-2022-3


Geniuses. 

The next step after price controls is shortages. 

Government spending => Deficits => Printing Money => Rising Prices => Price controls => Shortages

I saw something similar where "experts" were recommending gas vouchers to help with inflation. Duh. In other words fight inflation with more inflation.

----------


## ClaytonB

>

----------


## ClaytonB

> Business Insider has the answer! (They've since changed the title to "Experts are battling over price controls: a radical, long-dead inflation fix that's either the silver bullet for America's runaway prices or a recipe for total economic catastrophe". LOL)
> 
> And these insights are "premium" content they want you to pay for.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/pric...y-chaos-2022-3


Another version:

----------


## oyarde

Since putin will not accept elon musks challenge to a duel it is apparent that the ruskies will be exporting less oil by next quarter due to numerous restrictions imposed by others on themselves . Meaning oil will rise well above current levels unless the chinese release a real killer plague on themselves killing future demand. biden bypasses congress and declares war on russia by announcing 800 million in military aid to ukraine.Gold goes down 4.00.

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/persp...cks/index.html

----------


## oyarde

mortgage rates beginning to rise now  , they'll keep on chooglin'

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## Madison320

> mortgage rates beginning to rise now  , they'll keep on chooglin'


Let's see what happens when we go about 6 months with no QE and a few more hikes.

----------


## oyarde

> Let's see what happens when we go about 6 months with no QE and a few more hikes.


It'll take more than that to slow inflation . I think your thinking the economy could dive . That might be true but there will still be inflation. It isnt slowing down this yr

----------


## Madison320

> It'll take more than that to slow inflation . I think your thinking the economy could dive . That might be true but there will still be inflation. It isnt slowing down this yr


It's going to crash hard, depression hard. And yeah, there will still be inflation, hyperinflation if the Fed keeps trying to print our way out of it. Apparently the Fed changed their statement from last month and took out the part describing how they planned to start QE. I have a feeling that behind the scenes the wheels are already coming off the wagon in the bond market from the fact that they stopped QE a week ago.

----------


## Occam's Banana

_Hoi oligoi_ say "shut up and suck it up, _hoi polloi_" ...

https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1505292742993321993


... and just add your dog to a nice lentil soup ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-under-300-000

----------


## Occam's Banana

> _Hoi oligoi_ say "shut up and suck it up, _hoi polloi_" ...
> 
> https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1505292742993321993
> 
> 
> ... and just add your dog to a nice lentil soup ...
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-under-300-000


https://twitter.com/sourpatchlyds/st...93820321853444

----------


## Occam's Banana

> _Hoi oligoi_ say "shut up and suck it up, _hoi polloi_" ...
> 
> https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1505292742993321993


https://twitter.com/justinamash/stat...77820964536321

----------


## oyarde

bloomturd can take the lentils and buses and stick them in the ass

----------


## ClaytonB



----------


## ClaytonB

> _Hoi oligoi_ say "shut up and suck it up, _hoi polloi_" ...
> 
> https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1505292742993321993
> 
> 
> ... and just add your dog to a nice lentil soup ...
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-under-300-000


Thanks for the encouragement, Bloomberg! Visualizer:

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## Krugminator2

Here's the CNN article.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...ons/index.html

It is remarkable all the things they blamed like quoting Robert Reich saying it us greedy businesses. They mentioned The Fed but didn't actually give how Fed policy caused inflation. Instead they said something about interest rates. 

Inflation is always too many dollars chasing too few goods. The M2 money supply had the biggest percentage increase since WW2.  Unless the quantity of goods produced kept up with money that people have in their hands to spend or unless velocity dropped dramatically inflation was the predictable outcome.

MV = Pq still holding strong. Amazing how these economists ignore the economics they learned in college and what I was taught and what they presumably teach.

----------


## Krugminator2

https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-printing-money-supply-m2-raises-prices-level-inflation-demand-prediction-wage-stagnation-stagflation-federal-reserve-monetary-policy-11645630424




> One of us, Mr. Hanke, predicted in these pages last July that year-end inflation for 2021 would “be at least 6% and possibly as high as 9%.” That was based on the quantity theory of money, which economic thinkers have used since the Renaissance. The theory rests on a simple identity, the equation of exchange, which demonstrates the link between the money supply and inflation: MV=Py, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money (the speed at which it circulates relative to total spending), P is the price level, and y is real gross domestic product. So, the quantity theory of money provides the link between money and inflation.





> If Mr. Powell is right and all that is outdated thinking, then when looking back through economic data, the equation of exchange shouldn’t be able to predict prices. But look at the chart. When we took the past 60 years of economic data and the rate-of-change form of the identity we explained above, it predicted price changes almost perfectly. Our estimate deviated from actual inflation only during 2020, as the money supply grew at unprecedented rates and lockdowns stanched real growth. By June 2021, our estimate for inflation based on the quantity theory of money had reverted back to its conjunction with actual inflation.

----------


## oyarde

Inflation still chooglin , no sign of letting up

----------


## oyarde

Gold 1950 tonight , oil moved back to about 122 today , one yr oil forecast moved to 132 , could be 200

----------


## Occam's Banana

Problem: 8% inflation
Solution: increase the money supply by 8%

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/s...14594996031489


https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy

----------


## Madison320

> Problem: 8% inflation
> Solution: increase the money supply by 8%


Which will lead to price increases of 16%.

I keep seeing idiotic stuff like this every day. I'm guessing Biden will come out with some sort of giveaway before the midterms. 

Remember that the proper definition of inflation is an increase of the money supply. Price increases are the effect of inflation, not inflation itself.

So they're going to combat the effects of inflation with more inflation.

----------


## Occam's Banana

> Which will lead to price increases of 16%.
> 
> I keep seeing idiotic stuff like this every day. I'm guessing Biden will come out with some sort of giveaway before the midterms. 
> 
> Remember that the proper definition of inflation is an increase of the money supply. Price increases are the effect of inflation, not inflation itself.
> 
> So they're going to combat the effects of inflation with more inflation.


The guy (who is/was an economic advisor to Jeremy Corbyn) wrote a book with a cover that depicts money growing on trees.

(Apparently, the book is just a collection of Twitter threads and tweets like the one I posted above.)

----------


## oyarde

US reported inflation expected to be around 9 percent before next fed meeting raises interest rates a half percent in the late spring meeting. That 3/4 of a percent will do nothing to stop inflation. Real inflation is and will be double digit. You are in a banana republic with no bananas.

----------


## oyarde

biden warns real food shortages are coming .

----------


## oyarde

Tiffany bans new diamonds from russia .

----------


## oyarde

Yesterday began the second month of the russian invasion.

----------


## oyarde

57 of  percent Americans pd no fed income tax last yr , 60 percent the year prior with those numbers much higher than pre plague level of 44 percent . Fed gov deficit spending like inflation will keep on chooglin'

----------


## oyarde

Fed gov needs to start cutting back now to afford that eight percent social security raise next yr

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/alifarhat79/stat...00604736688135

----------


## oyarde

Heineken projects nearly a half billion loss from pulling out of ruskie land.

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/s...38849844813831

----------


## oyarde

Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes as prices soar

----------


## Madison320

> Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes as prices soar


I'm wondering when that is going to happen here. You know China is going to be trying to get rid of its dollars.

----------


## oyarde

> I'm wondering when that is going to happen here. You know China is going to be trying to get rid of its dollars.


Considering how worthless the dollar is and we are a full 12 months into runaway inflation that was never acted on Id say it is time to consider that now.

----------


## Occam's Banana

For those who might still harbor some shred of doubt that any of this is fully intentional and deliberate:

(The overweening hubris implicit in economic scientism is what allows all these arrogant and presumptuous jackasses to imagine that they are clever and masterful enough to ride the tiger.)

----------


## Madison320

> For those who might still harbor some shred of doubt that any of this is fully intentional and deliberate:
> 
> (The overweening hubris implicit in economic scientism is what allows all these arrogant and presumptuous jackasses to imagine that they are clever and masterful enough to ride the tiger.)


Great post.

It's easy to forget that even during the first year of covid the vast majority of economists were warning that DEFLATION was the big worry. 

The whole idea of a deflationary spiral is idiotic, it's never actually happened in real life.

----------


## Krugminator2

> The whole idea of a deflationary spiral is idiotic, it's never actually happened in real life.



1930s. Was the singular cause of the first part of Great Depression.  Debt is priced in nominal dollars. If nominal incomes drop across the board, debt gets harder to service which means bankruptcies. The bankruptcy process is slow. It took years to sort out delinquent housing payments after 08 housing crisis which meant you had lots of dormant inventory.  Companies can take years to sort bankruptcy out. New investment within bankrupt companies stop which means a further drop in nominal GDP and more bankruptcies. It also means lower future growth from less investment. Unions and employees don't like wage cuts which makes wages sticky. As a consequence companies lay off workers instead of cutting wages which causes unemployment to rise and more bankruptcies as laid off workers can't service debt.

Tl;dr. A deflationary spiral is a nominal GDP spiral. A big drop in nominal GDP can cause pain with no gain. The goal isn't deflation or inflation. It is stable monetary policy a stable growth in nominal GDP.

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## oyarde

S & P cuts russia rating , I'd say that was a little overdue. Default coming .

----------


## oyarde

Here of course Inflation just keeps on chooglin' .

----------


## oyarde

Iranian water scarcity protesters sentenced to  75 lashes and prison. Guess I wont complain about all the rain here until at least Tue of course things will cost more Tue than yesterday .

----------


## oyarde

cbs news poll says inflation outweighs jobs. Makes perfect sense to me . So few americans work , even the other half is negatively effected by inflation.

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## Madison320

> 1930s. Was the singular cause of the first part of Great Depression.  Debt is priced in nominal dollars. If nominal incomes drop across the board, debt gets harder to service which means bankruptcies. The bankruptcy process is slow. It took years to sort out delinquent housing payments after 08 housing crisis which meant you had lots of dormant inventory.  Companies can take years to sort bankruptcy out. New investment within bankrupt companies stop which means a further drop in nominal GDP and more bankruptcies. It also means lower future growth from less investment. Unions and employees don't like wage cuts which makes wages sticky. As a consequence companies lay off workers instead of cutting wages which causes unemployment to rise and more bankruptcies as laid off workers can't service debt.
> 
> Tl;dr. A deflationary spiral is a nominal GDP spiral. A big drop in nominal GDP can cause pain with no gain. The goal isn't deflation or inflation. It is stable monetary policy a stable growth in nominal GDP.


Falling prices didn't cause the great depression, the great depression caused falling prices. And the great depression was caused by the federal reserve keeping rates artificially low during the "roaring twenties".

It's not a coincidence that we had the great depression 16 years after the federal reserve was created.

I agree that once the federal reserve induced bubble popped, falling prices were a problem, but they weren't the initial cause. The most important thing is that the cure was not for government to try to prop up prices. That was the worst thing they could do.

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## Krugminator2

00


> Falling prices didn't cause the great depression, the great depression caused falling prices. And the great depression was caused by the federal reserve keeping rates artificially low during the "roaring twenties".
> 
> It's not a coincidence that we had the great depression 16 years after the federal reserve was created.
> 
> I agree that once the federal reserve induced bubble popped, falling prices were a problem, but they weren't the initial cause. The most important thing is that the cure was not for government to try to prop up prices. That was the worst thing they could do.


Not only was money in the 1920s not loose, it is almost the perfect exemplar of Austrian monetary policy in that it allowed prices to fall because of productivity growth. You said  base money was the best measure of monetary policy in the past.  The monetary base in 1920 was $6.9 billion. It was $6.978 in 1929. Does that sound loose?   The price of gold was the same at every point in the 20s so no inflation using that metric. Nominal GDP only grew 5% over 10 year or roughly .5% a year.  That is very deflationary in the good sense. You had huge productivity growth during that time. Prices fell by some metrics in the 1920s. 

Using this data, the average inflation rate in the 1920s using the CPI data was .38%, basically the lowest ever outside of the the deflation of the Great Depression. https://inflationdata.com/articles/i...dex-1920-1929/

I like Austrian economists a lot. But the data is devastating to the Austrian depression narrative. What is the response to what I posted?  

It is true the Federal Reserve caused the Depression but it was because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 6 percent when the inflation rate was zero to burst the stock bubble. Just like I think you would agree a hugely negative real rate is bad (like now), why is having a huge positive real rate good? As gold flowed into the country instead of expanding money as the gold standard would dictate, the Federal Reserve  purposefully collapsed the money supply by a third.  

Both inflation and deflation are bad policy outcomes. Deflation in the early 30s wasn't some beautiful corrective process caused by letting the market work. It was a purposeful choice by monetary central planners that should be thought of the same way as choosing inflation as a policy.

----------


## Krugminator2

Does this look like a decade of decadent Federal Reserve monetary excess or frankly  a near ideal Austrian policy of some years being negative and some positive?

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## ClaytonB

> Does this look like a decade of decadent Federal Reserve monetary excess or frankly  a near ideal Austrian policy of some years being negative and some positive?


The original assertion in this thread of discussion was that deflationary collapse is not a real concern and that is incorrect -- a business which has $1M debt and is legally obligated to service that debt will collapse under the weight of it if its revenues, measured in the monetary unit of the debt (dollars), suddenly decline in absolute terms, _even if the ratio of its revenues and outlays remains fixed throughout_. A deflationary collapse is a debt-magnifier and so any major deflationary event will cause a swathe of bankruptcies. Whether businesses should be carrying such large debt loads (and the role that the constant expansion of credit plays in encouraging reckless commercial debts) is a separate question.

However.

In respect to the Fed's monetary recklessness, they have almost constantly expanded the money supply since the day it was created in 1913:



This figure shows the nominal inflation-rate based on the official stats which are always the most flattering picture of the history of inflation.

While Mises could no more "time the market" than anyone else could, he did indeed predict a coming, massive inflationary collapse in the decades leading up to the 1929 crash. And while a lot of hay is made of the aftermath of the 1929 stock-market crash, the forgotten depression of 1920 is much more illustrative of the dangers of inflation.

In the absence of a central bank, there will still be a business cycle. Humans are not immune to "animal spirits" -- hypes, manias, FUD, etc. are all a part of the market. No Austrian economist claims that, but for the Fed, there would be no business cycle. The primary problem with the Fed is that it _amplifies_ the business cycle, so that the bubbles blow much larger, and burst much harder, than they otherwise would.  People are going to get sucked into bad investments with or without the Fed. But with cheap, expansionary credit _many more people_ will get sucked in, and the extent of the monetary losses will be much greater than they otherwise would be.

The 2008 housing collapse, for example, is textbook Austrian economics. Yes, the Austrians were blaring the warning horns the entire time as we went into the housing bubble. Can an Austrian economist tell you "when" a bubble will burst, or exactly how the wreckage will get strewn in the aftermath? Don't be ridiculous, Austrian economics is not a crystal ball. It just explains cause-and-effect. If you light the fuse to an explosive charge, there will be a detonation and whatever that charge is attached to will be obliterated. You don't have to have a crystal ball to understand cause-and-effect. And understanding cause-and-effect, by itself, will not tell you how long the fuse is or where all the debris is going to land afterwards. But it will tell you a detonation is coming.

More instructive than the navel-gazing over "predicting" crashes, collapses, depressions, and the like, is understanding all the mechanisms by which the Fed has learned to conceal the real effects of inflation over the past century. Prior to 2008, real estate was considered an inflation hedge... the reason the American dream prescribed the 30-year mortgage as an enforced savings plan for the typical American household was supposed to be something along the lines that your retirement portfolio might evaporate in an unforeseen stock market crisis but your house won't just evaporate into thin air. So it's instructive to see how inflation is always chasing the inflation-hedge and that's the fundamental structure of the inflationary monster. Each successive bubble occurs in the former inflation shelters, the very thing that people ran into for cover against inflation. The entire economy has been restructured, top-to-bottom, to accommodate and conceal the real costs of inflation.

And not only has the economy itself been restructured, but our very culture has been corrupted. Stealing is a crime, and counterfeiting the money of the nation is corruption and an inherently criminal activity, no matter what is written in legislation. In Peter Thiel's recent keynote at the Bitcoin Miami Conference, he explained that we're supposed to believe that financial management is this highly complex art that only those who have been educated in the mysteries of modern finance can even begin to comprehend. In reality, saving up for the future is dead simple if you have honest money... anybody can do it. And that's one reason that the financialists and Wall Street types are so fond of non-sound money, because sound money is so simple that any Tom, Dick or Harry can do it, but non-sound money requires constant, harried flight from the inflation monster, leaping from one hedge into the next and the next. We have normalized the crime of counterfeiting the nation's money in order to accommodate every kind of swindler, shyster, hustler, con-artist and scammer known to man. In the end, truly honest work is guaranteed to be the least financially rewarding form of endeavor. Running a (legal) scam will always pay better.

tl;dr: No, the 1929 stock market collapse and the Fed's uncharacteristically restrained behavior in the period prior do not disprove the Austrian theory of the business cycle. The oft-forgotten 1920 stock market collapse, however, clearly shows the pattern of expansionary money and the resultant bubble burst it causes, as explained by Austrian theory.

The missing element from mainstream economics is _the time-structure of production_. Reference for lurkers who would like to understand the Austrian business cycle in more depth:

----------


## Krugminator2

> In respect to the Fed's monetary recklessness, they have almost constantly expanded the money supply since the day it was created in 1913


The chart you link shows the money supply almost flat in the 1920s which is the only topic mentioned.  The 1920s were not a decade of monetary excess. It was a decade of restraint and should represent a monetary ideal for Austrian economics.

----------


## ClaytonB

> The chart you link shows the money supply almost flat in the 1920s which is the only topic mentioned.  The 1920s were not a decade of monetary excess. It was a decade of restraint and should represent a monetary ideal for Austrian economics.


Well, printing money is never "restraint" or a "monetary ideal" and, yes, the Fed was printing money throughout the 1920s. The official stats are not reliable and always present the most flattering possible picture of the Fed's activity. The CPI is problematic and the picture it paints does not tell you, by itself, the rate of monetary or credit expansion. If you look at the stock market charts for the 1920's, you can see that the stock prices were moving up at an exponential pace and money invested in Wall Street could not simultaneously be spent on Main Street (driving up CPI). I haven't dug into the M* stats (and not going to, because I have other more important things to do) but the Fed has, obviously, been the primary culprit in _all_ US market crashes, collapses, depressions, etc. since the day it was created. Its purpose is to be the central bank, that is, to yank the economy's chain this way or that way. If the chain slips, that doesn't tell you they weren't pulling on it, it just means that it slipped. You would like to zoom in on a few well-selected stats in a narrow band of the Fed's history, rather than having a broad discussion about central banking and the general history of the Fed because the former is an argument that can be fine-tuned to achieve some kind of "technical victory" (in your mind), while the latter is a dead ringer that makes obvious the role of the central bank in destroying the economy not merely through the bursting of inflationary bubbles, but through a systematic corruption of the entire structure of the economy.




> "Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . . Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose." -- John Maynard Keynes

----------


## Krugminator2

> Well, printing money is never "restraint" or a "monetary ideal"



 The money supply should grow with the economy which is what would happen in a free market and what happened under the gold standard from 1870-1913. Between 1880 and 1900 the money supply grew by 80%. No Federal Reserve.




> For example, between 1880 and 1900, the monetary base in Italy actually shrank by 4.8%.  However, the monetary base in the U.S. grew by 81% over those same years


 https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanl...h=1716f94b6c09





> but the Fed has, obviously, been the primary culprit in _all US market crashes_


There wasn't a Federal Reserve until 1913. There were constant crashes without a central bank. Booms and busts are part of human nature and will happen whether a central bank exists or not. Bubbles are part of human nature and human nature doesn't change.

----------


## ClaytonB

> The money supply should grow with the economy which is what would happen in a free market and what happened under the gold standard from 1870-1913. Between 1880 and 1900 the money supply grew by 80%. No Federal Reserve.


Yes, I understand that mining and minting exist and are markets like any other. Austrians call it the market for money production.




> There wasn't a Federal Reserve until 1913. There were constant crashes without a central bank. Booms and busts are part of human nature and will happen whether a central bank exists or not. Bubbles are part of human nature and human nature doesn't change.


Nice try, but I qualified "since it was created." And yes, there were booms, bubbles, crashes, etc. prior to 1913. The central bank only made things worse by amplifying the very thing its job is supposedly to stop: instability. The market solution to manias is bankruptcy and liquidation. Yes, that good old-fashioned "bitter end liquidation" is the perennial solution to youthful animal spirits. And while a spoonful of sugar might make the medicine go down, the Fed waves its magic wand and imports a container ship load of sugar every few months with open market operations. Wall Street's infernal army of ants and roaches, of course, are always onsite to make quick work of all that magic infinity-cash.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Nice try, but I qualified "since it was created."





> Yes, that good old-fashioned "bitter end liquidation" is the perennial solution to youthful animal spirits.


1. 1920s stock bubble. Not caused by Fed. See stats above

2. Forcing bitter end liquidation though deflationary monetary policy is central planning. If you think the Fed causing inflation is bad, you should think the Fed causing deflation through purposeful monetary contraction is bad. /thread

----------


## ClaytonB

> 1. 1920s stock bubble. Not caused by Fed. See stats above


You're confusing the run-up to the 1929 crash with the 1920 depression itself which was, indeed, caused by the Fed's rampant inflation in the years prior. Just look at the historical graph yourself.




> 2. Forcing bitter end liquidation though deflationary monetary policy is central planning.


Correct. Therefore, to avoid central planning in the market for money, the correct solution is to free that market so money producers may freely compete. Obviously, a central monopolist with the power to print money out of thin air makes any such market practically impossible, even if it is not overtly prohibited (which, in most places, it is, just to be safe).

When the law is justly applied to bankruptcy of deposit banks, the result is bitter-end liquidation, no different than it would be when a business goes bust in any other market. Depositors are _pro rata_ stakeholders in the final liquidation. There are some complexities but they are not insurmountable. And if our regulators really are so thick-skulled that they literally can't comprehend how to liquidate bankrupt banks, then we could fall back to Islamic/Eastern banking which even the rock-headed morons in Congress can understand. It protects depositors, prevents runaway speculation based on credit-expansion and it is just. And contrary to Western banking bull$#@! propaganda, it's thoroughly modern.

Or Congress can wake the hell up and figure out how to write just laws. Their choice.




> If you think the Fed causing inflation is bad, you should think the Fed causing deflation through purposeful monetary contraction is bad. /thread


Both are bad, and the Fed should not be able to do either, that is, the Fed should not have a money printing press and neither should anybody else. Even a young child can understand this, so there's really nothing for Congress and the banking lobby to be "confused" about.

So far, the Fed and its global "banking" syndicate has managed to evade existential disruption to its affairs. The longer this continues, the more sudden its collapse will be. The Fed is like a malignant tumor that has threaded its tentacles into the nerves between the heart and brain. Any attempt at directly cutting it out would surely kill the patient (the common man). That didn't happen by accident. But that doesn't mean there is no solution to the problem. For those criminals who are perpetuating this corruption, voluntarily stopping is their least bad option. But when they have removed all other options, the matter will be brought to a final head, Rev. 18:10.

----------


## Occam's Banana

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...82387317334016


https://twitter.com/brad_polumbo/sta...24837855531013

----------


## Occam's Banana

> https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...82387317334016


https://twitter.com/SpectrumNews1WI/...72092348960777





> https://twitter.com/brad_polumbo/sta...24837855531013

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## Occam's Banana

>

----------


## oyarde

as anyone knows inflation is double digits . lets take a moment to reflect on the costs that matter to the avg , median income type american . we have housing , energy and food . now we also know that at least roughly half of those people are clearly full retard. these are the type that vote for gore , kerry , clinton , obama , biden , pelosi and schumer  ( for at least 13 consecutive years ). also we know only 6 in 10 americans actually work , considering this includes govt employees . probably less than that are actually productive towards anything somewhat useful. Of those 6 only about two pay more fed tax than they receive . We also know the fed allowed 12 months of record third world inflation before really ever looking at raising the interest rate. Considering the severity of these facts ( none of which are favorable , zero ), now we arrive at a point where we can predict that there is nothing  to stop this inflation for lasting through 2022 and 2023. Today your worthless FRN is more worthless than ever ( until tomorrow).

----------


## Madison320

> 00
> 
> Not only was money in the 1920s not loose, it is almost the perfect exemplar of Austrian monetary policy in that it allowed prices to fall because of productivity growth. You said  base money was the best measure of monetary policy in the past.  The monetary base in 1920 was $6.9 billion. It was $6.978 in 1929. Does that sound loose?   The price of gold was the same at every point in the 20s so no inflation using that metric. Nominal GDP only grew 5% over 10 year or roughly .5% a year.  That is very deflationary in the good sense. You had huge productivity growth during that time. Prices fell by some metrics in the 1920s. 
> 
> Using this data, the average inflation rate in the 1920s using the CPI data was .38%, basically the lowest ever outside of the the deflation of the Great Depression. https://inflationdata.com/articles/i...dex-1920-1929/
> 
> I like Austrian economists a lot. But the data is devastating to the Austrian depression narrative. What is the response to what I posted?  
> 
> It is true the Federal Reserve caused the Depression but it was because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 6 percent when the inflation rate was zero to burst the stock bubble. Just like I think you would agree a hugely negative real rate is bad (like now), why is having a huge positive real rate good? As gold flowed into the country instead of expanding money as the gold standard would dictate, the Federal Reserve  purposefully collapsed the money supply by a third.  
> ...


Those are good points but I have some questions. If the fed wasn't printing why did they have to reprice gold from 20 to 35 an ounce?

Also what was going on with rates during the 1920s? In my opinion the fed's balance sheet is the most important long term thing that affects inflation, but rates are very important also. 

Anyway I'm not sure what we're arguing about. I agree that the Fed can cause massive deflation if they wanted to. My original point is that the idea of a deflationary spiral is wrong. Maybe I have the wrong definition of a deflationary spiral. I'm assuming it means that a free market economy, with free market money will inevitably have a period where prices start to fall and it spirals out of control until the economy is ruined. 

Even if you're right and the there was no bubble in the 1920s, it wasn't falling prices out of the blue that created the great depression. In that case it was the fed artificially raising rates ABOVE the free market level. Austrian economics doesn't say that rates should always be high, it says that rates should be set by the market.

P.S. I used to think that the monetary base was the amount of printed money but I've since realized that the fed's balance sheet is really the mount of printed money so I use that instead.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Those are good points but I have some questions. If the fed wasn't printing why did they have to reprice gold from 20 to 35 an ounce?


It was a quick way to devalue the currency to inflate away debts and raise nominal incomes. 




> This price change incentivized gold miners globally to expand production and foreigners to export their gold to the United States, while simultaneously devaluing the U.S. dollar by increasing inflation.






> My original point is that the idea of a deflationary spiral is wrong. Maybe I have the wrong definition of a deflationary spiral. I'm assuming it means that a free market economy, with free market money will inevitably have a period where prices start to fall and it spirals out of control until the economy is ruined.


Some random quotes from Hayek related to this. 




> “I agree with Milton Friedman that once the Crash had occurred, the Federal Reserve System pursued a silly deflationary policy.  I am not only against inflation but I am also against deflation.  So, once again, a badly programmed monetary policy prolonged the depression.”






> Although I do not regard deflation as the original cause of a decline in business activity, such a reaction has unquestionably the tendency to induce a process of deflation – to cause what more than 40 years ago I called a ‘secondary deflation’ – the effect of which may be worse, and in the 1930s certainly was worse, than what the original cause of the reaction made necessary, and which has no steering function to perform. I must confess that forty years ago I argued differently. I have since altered my opinion – not about the theoretical explanation of the events, but about the practical possibility of removing the obstacles to the functioning of the system in a particular way”





> Such a "secondary depression" caused by an induced deflation should of course be prevented by appropriate monetary counter-measures.  Though I am sometimes accused of having represented the deflationary cause of the business cycles as part of the curative process, I do not think that was ever what I argued. What I did believe at one time was that a deflation might be necessary to break the developing downward rigidity of all particular wages which has of course become one of the main causes of inflation.  I no longer think this is a politically possible method and we shall have to find other means to restore the flexibility of the wage structure than the present method of raising all wages excep those which must fall relatively to all others.

----------


## oyarde

Russian warship Moskva sinks into the Black Sea, Europe drafting plan to ban ruskie oil , russia  threatening finland and sweden again with moving nukes closer to them if they join nato . Europe currently buys about 25 percent of its oil from russia . The groups 27 votes would be needed to ban the russian oil. Meanwhile here , inflation keeps on chooglin at double digit third world level while nothing is done about it . Nothing.

----------


## oyarde

Wall St journal says mortgage rates reach  5 percent for first time since 2011 . The week prior the avg was 4.72 on 30 yr mortgages. This moves  the avg monthly payment up 38 percent increase from one yr ago ( 1223 after a 20 percent down payment to 1700). Jan to Jan home prices increased 19.2 percent ( S&P Core Logic  Case - Shiller National home pice index ). Jan 2021 mortgage rates were 2.65 percent . Wells Fargo says mortgage applications suddenly dropped by 27 percent  , JP Morgan Chase 37 percent . Credit card rates will also rise this yr . I expect the double digit inflation to continue . While the pool of worthy borrowers is shrinking by the moment they still expect around 2.6 trillion in mortgage types for this yr.

----------


## oyarde

This evening paper share spot silver price 25.77 , real 90 percent silver dimes and quarters trading at 31 1/3 ounce buy and 32.52 sell ( wholesale to dealers ) , Halves 23.29 times face buy (11.65 ea) and 24 1/3 times face sell wholesale ( 12.16) moving retail to about 13 or roughly 40 per ounce Dealer wholesale buy price for Silver Eagles 38.22 pushing retail to 42 . 99.9 percent silver rounds dealer buy price 29.17 keeping retail @ 32. Junk 90 percent silver dimes trading at 32.52 per ounce to dealers and roughly 35 3/4 retail reflects the inflation from start of plague to now ( twice the price of Feb 2020) . If you put 1K in a savings account in 2019 or 2020 it is essentially worth zero as it would take 2K FRNs now to buy the same housing , auto , energy or groceries as the 1K would have then and you wouldve made zero off your 1K. That is what double digit inflation does , makes people poorer. Right this moment the US is full of people trying to enjoy the new  zero that was given them.

----------


## oyarde

With the paper share gold spot price at 1974.20 the cheapest American gold coin a dealer can purchase wholesale is a one ounce gold Eagle for 2049  pushing retail to 2125. Real gold price 2125 , probably should be 2400 or more

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## devil21

> With the paper share gold spot price at 1974.20 the cheapest American gold coin a dealer can purchase wholesale is a one ounce gold Eagle for 2049  pushing retail to 2125. Real gold price 2125 , probably should be 2400 or more


It's pretty clear they don't want spot gold price crossing 2000 for more than a day or two.  Big psychological price point even if generally meaningless compared to 1975 or thereabouts.  It'll continue to be managed until the very last moment right before the major monetary paradigm shift occurs.  Whether that shift takes the form of a major upward revaluation (gold-backing existing FRNs) or a major downward revaluation (dollar reset haircut) I don't know.

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## Madison320

> With the paper share gold spot price at 1974.20 the cheapest American gold coin a dealer can purchase wholesale is a one ounce gold Eagle for 2049  pushing retail to 2125. Real gold price 2125 , probably should be 2400 or more


I think it should be somewhere around 4,000 based on the historical fed balance sheet/gold price ratio.

----------


## Madison320

> Wall St journal says mortgage rates reach  5 percent for first time since 2011 . The week prior the avg was 4.72 on 30 yr mortgages. This moves  the avg monthly payment up 38 percent increase from one yr ago ( 1223 after a 20 percent down payment to 1700). Jan to Jan home prices increased 19.2 percent ( S&P Core Logic  Case - Shiller National home pice index ). Jan 2021 mortgage rates were 2.65 percent . Wells Fargo says mortgage applications suddenly dropped by 27 percent  , JP Morgan Chase 37 percent . Credit card rates will also rise this yr . I expect the double digit inflation to continue . While the pool of worthy borrowers is shrinking by the moment they still expect around 2.6 trillion in mortgage types for this yr.


And when you factor in heating/cooling and maintenance I'm guessing it's easily 50% more to live in a home from a year ago. 

I think I've said this before but I think there's going to be a huge shift in demand from mcmansions to small homes under 1500 sq ft. I'll bet the price of a smaller home has gone up much more than the price of a big home over the last year. Also I think those mcmansions are going to be split into duplexes and shared in other ways, like renting out rooms, etc.

It really irritated me when I was looking for a home about a year and a half ago. It seemed like for every 1200 sq ft house there were 10 3,000 sq ft houses. That's what 20 years of artificially low rates and govt backed loans have done. Almost everyone has bought too much house.

----------


## oyarde

I expect mortgage rates to creep to 5.2 or 5 1/4 this week or next  but I dont think it will stop home values or large dollar amount mortgages. I expect inflation to keep on chooglin'. Fed a disaster for waiting so long to stop pumping money and leaving interest at nothing in the face of inflation clearly beyond control.

----------


## oyarde

I think it wouldve done that a decade ago but now there is two trillion probably in crypto t.hat much of wouldve gone to gold or silver so it is hard to judge

----------


## Krugminator2

> And when you factor in heating/cooling and maintenance I'm guessing it's easily 50% more to live in a home from a year ago. 
> 
> I think I've said this before but I think there's going to be a huge shift in demand from mcmansions to small homes under 1500 sq ft. I'll bet the price of a smaller home has gone up much more than the price of a big home over the last year. Also I think those mcmansions are going to be split into duplexes and shared in other ways, like renting out rooms, etc.
> 
> It really irritated me when I was looking for a home about a year and a half ago. It seemed like for every 1200 sq ft house there were 10 3,000 sq ft houses. That's what 20 years of artificially low rates and govt backed loans have done. Almost everyone has bought too much house.



I was looking home prices in Peter Schiff's neighborhood over the last three years. (I think he lives in an even nicer subdivision but same general block).   It is the most insane thing I have ever seen.  This generic place sold for $1.15 million in 2019.  https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...6_M37215-15852   An almost identical unit is listing for $6.35 million with the price being adjusted up. For a 2500 sq ft place not even on the ocean. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/P...65479790_zpid/  These are the poor people houses in that area.

I have always viewed housing as an expense and not an investment. I honestly have no idea where people get this kind of money and how they can possibly think spending this much on a house is a good financial decision regardless of income or net worth. Maybe home prices keeping going up and they will be right. I doubt it is a bubble but it "feels" like something isn't right. All of it feels very bull$#@! to me. His neighborhood is just an extreme example.

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## oyarde

I think housing is getting to bubble territory but I dont see how it would stop as inflation continues . The cost of putting in driveways , septics , pouring basement walls and building/ matl.s is insane

----------


## oyarde

> And when you factor in heating/cooling and maintenance I'm guessing it's easily 50% more to live in a home from a year ago. 
> 
> I think I've said this before but I think there's going to be a huge shift in demand from mcmansions to small homes under 1500 sq ft. I'll bet the price of a smaller home has gone up much more than the price of a big home over the last year. Also I think those mcmansions are going to be split into duplexes and shared in other ways, like renting out rooms, etc.
> 
> It really irritated me when I was looking for a home about a year and a half ago. It seemed like for every 1200 sq ft house there were 10 3,000 sq ft houses. That's what 20 years of artificially low rates and govt backed loans have done. Almost everyone has bought too much house.


I think 50 percent is nearly exact from 2019 to now.

----------


## oyarde

Right now I dont see next months reported cpi inflation getting in under 9 unless they fudge something. Short month and a Holiday ( Good Friday ) but probably a little extra spending too for Easter , Mothers Day once all those pesky increased property taxes are out of the way.

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## Madison320

> I think housing is getting to bubble territory but I dont see how it would stop as inflation continues . The cost of putting in driveways , septics , pouring basement walls and building/ matl.s is insane


I read a book a few years ago on hyperinflation by a guy who lived thru 3 of them. 2 in argentina and one in chile. One thing he mentioned is that prices didn't all go up in fact real estate prices crashed hard each time because people were selling their homes so they could afford to buy food. I think the basic idea is that essentials like food go way up but non-essentials go way down.

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## Madison320

> I think housing is getting to bubble territory but I dont see how it would stop as inflation continues . The cost of putting in driveways , septics , pouring basement walls and building/ matl.s is insane


The fed just printed another 20 billion last week. Why????? I'm telling ya, I think behind the scenes the fed is freaking out, it sure looks like they are desperately trying to keep the bubble afloat for some kind of miracle to happen and bail them out.

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## oyarde

I think the fed should be freaking out and while I personally see no reason for it to continue at all since it is there it wouldve helped if they were not all incompetent. If you performed at a job as they have for a yr you'd be fired sooner and rightfully so. When the major league baseball season ends this yr there will not be a player on a roster who didnt perform better than these dipshits.

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## oyarde

[QUOTE=Madison320;7104154]I read a book a few years ago on hyperinflation by a guy who lived thru 3 of them. 2 in argentina and one in chile. One thing he mentioned is that prices didn't all go up in fact real estate prices crashed hard each time because people were selling their homes so they could afford to buy food. I think the basic idea is that essentials like food go way up but non-essentials go way down.[/QUOTE
Interesting but different . On avg I'd say the avg Mexican or South American spends more on food and less on energy ,  housing ,  etc than an avg american even in normal times. Overall there is probably no welfare , food stamps or social security so hard to tell if that type of scenario could go here . I could picture americans selling bigger homes for smaller , especially childless couples but there is already a shortage of those smaller homes available .

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## Madison320

> Interesting but different . On avg I'd say the avg Mexican or South American spends more on food and less on energy housing , clothing etc than an avg american even in normal times. Overall there is probably no welfare , food stamps or social security so hard to tell if that type of scenario could go here . I could picture americans selling bigger homes for smaller , especially childless couples but there is already a shortage of those smaller homes available .


I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of chinese people buying real estate. They're going to be trying to trade their dollars for something of real value. The next step will be a ban on foreigners buying US property.

----------


## oyarde

One yr oil forecast 122.00 . I still think gold has a good shot of hitting a new record in Apr - May. ( reached 2000.80 this morning )

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## Madison320

> One yr oil forecast 122.00 . I still think gold has a good shot of hitting a new record in Apr - May. ( reached 2000.80 this morning )


I'm a little surprised commodities are all close or above hitting record highs since the Fed is just starting a "tightening" cycle. Just wait until the economy starts to crash hard and the Fed reverses course and starts printing. I think that will trigger massive moves up in commodities. I'm looking at the current increases as gravy since I didn't expect it.

----------


## oyarde

US Sec of Defense and Sec of State to arrive in Ukraine tomorrow

----------


## oyarde

On msnbc interview this week yellen says " I think we'll have to put up with high inflation for awhile longer  " . Check back later to see how many years " awhile longer " may be uttered from someone who has lived under a rock for the past yr.

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## ClaytonB

> On msnbc interview this week yellen says " I think we'll have to put up with high inflation for awhile longer  " . Check back later to see how many years " awhile longer " may be uttered from someone who has lived under a rock for the past yr.


Two weeks to reduce inflation...

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## Occam's Banana

Inflation is workers' fault ...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers...gh-11650792602

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## oyarde

Ya the inflation is all the fault of the median income US worker. If those bastards would quit buying so many 5.00 a doz eggs.LOL . That is so retarded even the public wont believe it. The propaganda needs improvement .

----------


## oyarde

economy shrinks in US 1.4 percent first quarter with double digit inflation still in the mix

----------


## oyarde

economy off by 2 1/2 percent of estimates

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## oyarde

personally , i'd view contraction during the height of tax refund season a very bad sign for the next quarter . inlafion still chooglin' though.

----------


## oyarde

US trade deficits reached all time high , will it be reaching for new highs? net exports dragging for seven consecutive quarters . Has the new US motto become "there may not be a lot to buy but it sure will be expensive " ?

----------


## oyarde

dow up 589

----------


## oyarde

China manufacturing weakens further , US consumer spending rising  by .2 percent while savings rate dropped three times as much, inflation keeps on chooglin'

----------


## oyarde

Colorado inmate tests positive for H5 bird flu

----------


## Occam's Banana

god tier hoochie *moron*

https://twitter.com/decemberarie/sta...70986103721984

----------


## acptulsa



----------


## oyarde

Gasoline and diesel exceeded all time high prices here this week . Inflation keeps on chooglin'

----------


## oyarde

jill biden visits Ukraine . Inflation keeps on chooglin' , mortgage rates near 5.3 percent. No slowing in building here.

----------


## oyarde

9 days into this month and I see no reason to think cpi for this month this year will not be higher inflation than same time last year .

----------


## oyarde

biden to expadite military aid to ukraine today .

----------


## oyarde

According to fbi gun sales in first quarter this yr only 68 percent of last yrs numbers . Looks to coincide with the govts own number of an economy in the negative. Economy is recessed if gun sales are down certainly . Here in the old Northwest Territory , Indiana Territory ( Land of Indians ) and The Gore we are in the top four per capita so far for gun sales this yr . Hoosiers doing part making america Great .

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## Madison320

> 9 days into this month and I see no reason to think cpi for this month this year will not be higher inflation than same time last year .


I'm not big on conspiracies but there's got to be a lot of pressure to "rework" the cpi. 

It's already way underreporting inflation. Practically every other common measure of inflation is well into double digits.  Gas, food, cars, homes, etc.

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## oyarde

> I'm not big on conspiracies but there's got to be a lot of pressure to "rework" the cpi. 
> 
> It's already way underreporting inflation. Practically every other common measure of inflation is well into double digits.  Gas, food, cars, homes, etc.


Inflation is double digit and has been over a yr with housing probably nearing 20 percent , groceries over 33 percent etc. Third world stuff.

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## oyarde

it is almost as if the inflation cant be stopped , just think , if the economy tanked tomorrow  the retard congress would give out trillions in unemployment bonus to equal more than the avg income person was making when working and inflation would just keep on chooglin ' .

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## oyarde

I think they are calling it 8.3 percent  . Very little difference from March.More where that came from i'd say for next month. S & P down about 17 percent from Jan high . Dow looks like it could actually dip below 32k for the first time in a long time.Anyway , i have all my property tax pd so i get to keep what is mine for another yr. Groceries , gasoline , utilities , new and used cars all still double digits .Avg 30 yr mortgage rate cracks 5 1/2 percent with purchase activity rising the past two weeks as the rates go up.

----------


## oyarde

Probably down to 50 days , the GDP wiil need to be positive the next 50 days.

----------


## oyarde

Bank of america says S & p could drop another 28 percent between now and end of Oct, Iran raises food prices ,US producer prices continue to rise double digits , 11 percent over last Apr up a half percent from last months 10 1/2. Glad I'm about done with my Christmas shopping . Danke struck off this years list as a deserter.

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## oyarde

Could be as little as 40 some days away from completing the biggest stagflation half yr in american history .

----------


## Occam's Banana



----------


## oyarde

Consumer sentiment lowest than in over a decade . Drop of six  from last month . Predictions were off by 7.8 percent .Very bad sign for the next 6  weeks . Consumer sentiment  lowest in 13 years . Americans , dullards that they are just figured out income will not be equal to the inflation.

----------


## oyarde

American household debt rising with inflation  , up 266 billion last quarter or up to nearly 16 trillion ( 15.85) and up 1.7 trillion from beginning of 2020.

----------


## oyarde

Rumors from a northside Indy Jeweler say that buying gold that doesnt come from Russia is going to cost 20 percent more for the origin pedigree .

----------


## oyarde

Polled consumers expecting nearly another 6 percent inflation for 2023.

----------


## oyarde

Lets review , Apr inflation reported at 8.3 , hourly wages increases at .3.

----------


## oyarde

Will Erdogan block the Fins from joining NATO?

----------


## oyarde

Biden approval rating at 37 percent once again proving my theory that many citizens are retarded. This admin has zero to approve of . Zero.

----------


## oyarde

India bans wheat exports . That ought to drive prices a little higher

----------


## oyarde

Chicom productivity down 2.9 percent in April while chinese retail sales dropped 11.1 percent .

----------


## oyarde

A little early to tell but getting close to the point where we will be needing June to be the month to bail out the first half of 2022. So whatever you think the odds are on that .

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## Madison320

> A little early to tell but getting close to the point where we will be needing June to be the month to bail out the first half of 2022. So whatever you think the odds are on that .


The only thing that's going to bail out the markets is when the Fed reverses course.

----------


## oyarde

> The only thing that's going to bail out the markets is when the Fed reverses course.


I think the fed will meet in June and they could raise rates another 1/4 point if everything remains about where it is now so ....... what are your thoughts if that happens? I expected Gold to go back to 1820 this morning. There is a lot of money out of crypto ( even more than I expected ) and about as much money out of stocks as I expected . I thought more of it would go to gold since sitting on cash is such a losing proposition  so that shows how much I know . If these people are smart enough to save and or invest ( however you view it ) you'd think they wouldn't be happy losing what you'd be losing right now sitting on cash .Cash year over yr right now is zero . It takes 2k to buy what 1k would've a yr ago.

----------


## oyarde

Sweden announces intent to join NATO . Mcdonalds will shed russian business .

----------


## oyarde

I wonder how high inflation could go above the past yr if the fed did reverse course ? Hell , we're already a banana republic with no bananas when it takes 2k to buy what 1k wouldve a yr ago.

----------


## Madison320

> I think the fed will meet in June and they could raise rates another 1/4 point if everything remains about where it is now so ....... what are your thoughts if that happens? I expected Gold to go back to 1820 this morning. There is a lot of money out of crypto ( even more than I expected ) and about as much money out of stocks as I expected . I thought more of it would go to gold since sitting on cash is such a losing proposition  so that shows how much I know . If these people are smart enough to save and or invest ( however you view it ) you'd think they wouldn't be happy losing what you'd be losing right now sitting on cash .Cash year over yr right now is zero . It takes 2k to buy what 1k would've a yr ago.


I think the market is expecting a .5 rate hike in June. I've been expecting to lose money while the Fed is tightening, just not as much as the overall stock market. I think when the Fed starts to loosen is when gold, gold stocks, oil, oil stocks, etc are going to take off, and a lot more than other markets. 

The question is when will the Fed reverse course? My guess is still around the last half of this year. Biden might be pressuring the Fed to stimulate before the elections if things are crashing. At some point the crash will overtake inflation as the number one priority.

----------


## oyarde

after looking at all the data the only positive thing i could find is US retail sales were up .9 percent in April. That may not though be beneficial to he inflation problem as we continue to have too many FRN's chasing too few goods.

----------


## oyarde

retail earnings in , walmart slashes  profit outlook for the yr , target suggests fuel costs alone will increase by 1 billion , cuts its operating income margin outlook.

----------


## oyarde

new record gasoline highs here and record global wheat prices.still chooglin', crude oil 113

----------


## Madison320

> new record gasoline highs here and record global wheat prices.still chooglin', crude oil 113


Nobody is laughing at my little car anymore.

----------


## oyarde

All the real auto makers left russia so the ruskies will revive the old soviet Moskvich in an abandoned Renault factory.

----------


## oyarde

All the real auto makers left russia so the ruskies will revive the old soviet Moskvich in an abandoned Renault factory. Moskvich though plans to go gay and after some success switch to electric . Russians  so stupid no longer a threat to the rest of the world. Bye ruskies.

----------


## devil21

> after looking at all the data the only positive thing i could find is US retail sales were up .9 percent in April. That may not though be beneficial to he inflation problem as we continue to have too many FRN's chasing too few goods.


And the msm stats generally don't take inflation into consideration when reporting "sales up .9% year over year".  It's usually based on pure dollar figures.  So when hearing their numbers it means that sales (total items sold, individual customer tickets, etc) were actually way down overall.  Overall economic activity is far lower year over year.

----------


## oyarde

Homebuyer mortgage payment amounts up 43.4 percent yr over yr . Reaching 2447.00 . To put that in perspective , my take home pay about 20 yrs ago from my 50K yr steel factory managers job was around 2600 . That was after putting maybe 11 percent into my retirement , federal , state , county taxes with held , social security tax , medicare tax and family plan health insurance payment of about 20 percent of what the co pd for the ins , 3 times salary life ins policy ( company pd 1 times ), dental ins , vision ins . And then no tax refund. My mortgage payment during those times ( I never had more than one even though I owned several homes ) was somewhere between 500 to 700, I never borrowed more than slightly more than one times my yearly salary. So te avg american mortgage is what my take home pay was 20 years ago. Thats a lot of inflation.

----------


## oyarde

Avg US gasoline price up another 1/3rd of dollar , past 4.70. Chooglin.

----------


## oyarde

bidens current plan is to beg opec for oil

----------


## oyarde

jpmorgan says gas prices could exceed 6.20 by august , i'm guessing that moves diesel to 7 1/4 . i expect this to happen because there is no real increase in refining capacity nor will there be new investment in oil processes under the economic terrorist dems ( pelosi , schumer , biden harris ) or whatever creatures they run in the next elections .

----------


## oyarde

CBO predicts over 6 percent inflation rest of this yr , over 3 percent next yr and that is factoring in 2 1/2 percent Fed interest increase. CBO predicts 1.2 trillion per yr in interest to service debt by 2032 or more than the current defense spending . CBO cites too much spending and too little action by the fed ( all very true ) however I think 3.1 inflation for 2023 could be optimistic. They seem to think the good news is the low unemployment but really the labor participation rate is not a positive and the CBO admits that the growing debt is out of control going into the future. Basically GDP has not ( dismal for years now ) and will not save the future as the main spending will become interest on debt .That is a failed economic model. CBO budget Director will testify tomorrow  to House Budget Committee on the newest report of failure . The failed house will then do nothing positive .

----------


## Krugminator2

Pretty big drop in M2 in the last reading. Maybe that is a one off.  But it looks like the inflation the Fed has the most influence  over (non-energy)  peaked.  Jeremy Siegel is a Wharton professor and a Milton Friedman disciple and who has been right about inflation for the last 15 years thinks the Fed should possibly stop hiking after the June meeting. The Fed made the error by not tightening last year and now thinks you can somehow make up for it by slamming on the breaks and sending the passenger through the window.

----------


## oyarde

Ya I think the June hike has already been decided on past numbers and failures so really its waiting to see about after that

----------


## oyarde

Fed carrying 330 billion in yet unrealized losses at the end of first quarter in mortgage backed securities  . Last year ended with a larger  458 billion unrealized loss. Basically what this means going forward in the future is the treasury should not be expecting profits from the fed to deposit ( roughly 107 billion last year and 32 billion this yr ) .

----------


## oyarde

Inflation still chooglin ' reported as 6.3 percent by your govt as wage increases come in 6 percent less.

----------


## Madison320

> Inflation still chooglin ' reported as 6.3 percent by your govt as wage increases come in 6 percent less.


That measure is the least accurate. It also happens to be the Fed's preferred measure. Why is that?

----------


## oyarde

Biden calls  9mm weapons high caliber and suggests ban. I see some mo inflation coming there .

----------


## oyarde

trudeau annonces national freeze on canadian handguns

----------


## oyarde

Home prices up 20 percent feb to feb , 20.6 percent mar to march . So less than energy and food but still chooglin'

----------


## oyarde

median house hits 375k

----------


## devil21

> Home prices up 20 percent feb to feb , 20.6 percent mar to march . So less than energy and food but still chooglin'


Price cuts are starting to happen in many areas.  Some small cuts, some large cuts but they are starting.  High rates and high prices have priced out a lot of otherwise potential buyers.

----------


## oyarde

Pretty much big picture it is quite possible we are at the beginning of the end now. With the spending and debt gone on in the past 13 1/2 yrs  and the amount of debt to our dismal GDP projected in the next decade along with a pelosi - schumer type budget its hard to imagine the unbacked paper dollar and the fed govt to remain as is in status quo within the next 10 to 12 yrs . Although they have kept it propped up the past 13 which is quite amazing in itself .

----------


## oyarde

The Larry Kudlow commentary today titled "Biden knows the economy is moving towards recession "  and the CBO report ( estimated annual shortfall of 1.6 trillion from 2023 to 2032 ) pretty well sum up the direction we are headed .  By 2032 fed debt would be roughly 110 to 125 percent of GDP . All very realistic .

----------


## oyarde

Deutsche bank raided and potential evidence taken . Prospectus fraud , selling green investments that are not green . Chumps all around I say .

----------


## oyarde

Feel free to check out the Washington Examiner article from yesterday titled " New Budget numbers show US careening toward calamity " .

----------


## Krugminator2

> Feel free to check out the Washington Examiner article from yesterday titled " New Budget numbers show US careening toward calamity " .



Calamity? Probably not.  A lower standard of living and stagnation? Much more likely.

----------


## oyarde

So the same americans who were recently given more unemployment monies than they made at work are supposed to suddenly toughen up , work harder for less and be happy with stagflation and lower standard of living ? I'm not really picturing it unless its after a total collapse.......

----------


## oyarde

Gasoline prices through the roof here today pushing 4.90, expecting 5 on next stations fill ups as wholesale gasoline nears 4.20 .West Texas crude about 117 , Brent Crude about 118 . One yr oil forecast moves to 134. Pretty well out of control now as this inflation seeps into the grocery driving high prices higher.

----------


## ClaytonB



----------


## oyarde

Chevron CEO says no more US refineries . Chooglin

----------


## oyarde

Oil 119.72 , one yr oil forecast moves to 136 . Pretty much all over now , local gas at 4.90 . Only thing that will stop 5 gas and 6 doll diesel now is an economy crash. Grocery inflation will rise between now and Christmas and the savings rate is dismal. More FRN's fueling the inflation.Looking like the calamity might arrive before one more decade.

----------


## oyarde

Sloth Bear in India kills couple walking home from temple at 6:30 am a mile from home  and eats them . Hard times. Baloo is a man eater.

----------


## oyarde

target moves down its estimates that were already lowered and will begin canceling orders and discounting items.

----------


## oyarde

tesla will stop hiring and reduce work force ten percent. auto gross margins expected to have reached peak in first quarter this yr.

----------


## Madison320

> The Larry Kudlow commentary today titled "Biden knows the economy is moving towards recession "  and the CBO report ( estimated annual shortfall of 1.6 trillion from 2023 to 2032 ) pretty well sum up the direction we are headed .  By 2032 fed debt would be roughly 110 to 125 percent of GDP . All very realistic .


Kudlow is a hypocrite. He was always cheering Trump's massive spending increases and all his other socialist policies.

----------


## Madison320

> tesla will stop hiring and reduce work force ten percent. auto gross margins expected to have reached peak in first quarter this yr.


I'm guessing in a few more months we're going to be in recession and the "official" CPI is going to be down to somewhere around 4%. Then the Fed is going to declare success on inflation and resume QE and drop rates back to 0%. Then in another 6 months the CPI will hit all time highs, maybe 15%. Then it's back to another tightening cycle. This is a total guess but I'm thinking we could go thru several more cycles, each time the CPI raises and drops, but at a higher percentage each time. Until we get hyperinflation and the dollar collapses. 

This is assuming they don't change the methodology for the CPI, I think there's a lot of pressure for them to do that. Either way the true CPI will be cycling up and down with new highs each time.

I think there's a 50-50 chance that's what is going to happen. The other possibility is that we get a crisis like a world war or pandemic or whatever and the Fed uses that as an excuse to drop rates to 0% and re-launch QE.

----------


## devil21

> 


A lot of corporations and establishments are taking advantage of the inflation narrative to get away with price gouging.  A last ditch profit grab before the wheels come flying off.

----------


## oyarde

New local gas price record today at 5.26 , old Obummer record was 4.12. Diesel to 5.90 .Chooglin .

----------


## oyarde

I'd say we are already in the stagflation cycle about now .

----------


## oyarde

Goldman Sachs says oil will hit 140 a barrel and feel like 160 a barrel by what consumers are forced to pay with no relief . ( no new refineries )

----------


## Krugminator2

> I'd say we are already in the stagflation cycle about now .


There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%.  All 50 states have growing economies.   Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer. 

M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.

----------


## oyarde

> There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%.  All 50 states have growing economies.   Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer. 
> 
> M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.


i think any reasonable growth is now at risk due to energy prices.

----------


## oyarde

US gasoline usage dropped to 8.8 million barrels a day for  week ending May 20. Excluding 2020 plague that is the least used in spring time since 2013. That effects growth I think . Prices have surged since those numbers.

----------


## Suzanimal

> A lot of corporations and establishments are taking advantage of the inflation narrative to get away with price gouging.  A last ditch profit grab before the wheels come flying off.


Do you have any idea how much it costs to run a restaurant?

----------


## oyarde

Stasi reported cpi numbers creep towards 9 percent in May ( and probably June ) while they fudge the double digit inflation . Chooglin.

----------


## oyarde

Lets review some annual numbers , Hotels up 20 percent , air fares up 13 percent , used cars up 16 percent , new cars up 13 percent  , rent up .while of course the worst are energy and food  . The fed allowed this for a yr before doing microscopic rate increases from nothing. It should be abolished based on nothing but that performance . The peasants continue to allow this. On the bright side the Dow is only down 13 percent so everyone's 401Ks haven't tanked as much as you'd expect  with things so dismal. Since inflation has not peaked as I've told everyone I'll assume the next one percent increase over these two moths is now a lock and we'll see where we are after.

----------


## Madison320

> There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%.  All 50 states have growing economies.   Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer. 
> 
> M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.


So there's no downside to raising the balance sheet from 1 trillion to 9 trillion? That 8 trillion created out of thin air does no harm?

----------


## devil21

> Do you have any idea how much it costs to run a restaurant?


I'm sure it's a lot of overhead but come on, that pic is literally like (max) 30 cents of food for $10.  I do some grocery shopping occasionally at a restaurant supply store (Chef Store, owned by US Foods) and have noticed that most prices there are actually -higher-, even though it's in bulk, than regular grocery store prices.  It seems that restaurants pay something of a "restaurant tax" for input products from bulk wholesalers.




> So there's no downside to raising the balance sheet from 1 trillion to 9 trillion? That 8 trillion created out of thin air does no harm?


We're witnessing how the central bank engineers a depression.  Flood in easy credit (easy money), get everyone over leveraged, then withdraw the easy credit, suck cash/digits back out of circulation, then wait for the defaults.

----------


## oyarde

At this point if the Dow ends the yr at 30k investors are going to have to take that as a win. Anyone not happy with 6 dollar gas and 30K Dow shouldnt be voting for dems or people who are supportive of the fed. Farmer John meatpacking plant in Vernon Calf will close next yr as operations are being moved out of Ca , AZ and Utah to midwest . Gold 1880 , looks like the only play.

----------


## Swordsmyth

*Inflation Comes In At 40 Year High*https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-40-year-high/

----------


## Occam's Banana

From the "animal spirits" school of economics:

https://fortune.com/2022/06/04/what-...ent-inflation/

----------


## DamianTV

Yeah and maybe its not having ANY money to spend!

You know the Stimulus?  Well it ALL went right back into food and gas, and now taxes on the unvaccinated!

----------


## Madison320

I swear I was going to post yesterday that I had a feeling that bitcoin was going to crash today. Damn, I should've posted it. It was hanging around 30k for a long time and I felt it was getting overdue for a crash.

----------


## oyarde

> I swear I was going to post yesterday that I had a feeling that bitcoin was going to crash today. Damn, I should've posted it. It was hanging around 30k for a long time and I felt it was getting overdue for a crash.


When the Dow is headed to 30K and inflation is locked in not surprising to see everything going down .

----------


## oyarde

Coinbase lays off 1100. CAT hq leaving Illinois for Texas . Former NYSE pres says capital markets will be dead for a long time . What isnt dead is inflation.

----------


## oyarde

US retail sales fell .3 percent in May. Tesla layoffs have already begun . Sales of motor vehicls and parts fell 3 1/2 percent in may. Biden threatens oil companies with emergency powers , center fire , single shot rifles appoved for deer hunting in illinois ( thats all you'll have if they have their way ) , Redfin and Compass lay off hundreds of workers. Bitcoin 20k , Oil 117 , Gold 1821.

----------


## Madison320

Powell: "No sign of broad slowdown in economy" 

LOL!!!

----------


## oyarde

Fed raises 3/4 point , plans 1 3/4 over next four meetings this yr. Be 3 1/2 by Christmas. Inflation keeps on Chooglin. Gold at 1842. losses from americans IRA's and 401K's are at 3.4 trillion this yr so far . ouch

----------


## oyarde

Bootyjudge says govt may act against airlines. Guess he and Hugo biden both went to the same commie school of economics.

----------


## oyarde

Atlanta Fed Res estimates 0 growth second quarter through Jun 15. That leaves 9 working days left this month to save the economy. Wealth losses from market selloffs this yr now exceed 10 trillion. Biggest catastrophic loss in US history in such a short time . Under the trump presidency the avg income was rougly 5k higher and using the govt 8.5 inflation number the avg decline under biden about 6k . Meaning about 11k less in the whole in income adjusted for inflation  while taking a probably 20 percent loss on the ol'401k  while in the last 2 1/2 yrs the debt in DC has grown 5 trillion.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> I swear I was going to post yesterday that I had a feeling that bitcoin was going to crash today. Damn, I should've posted it. It was hanging around 30k for a long time and I felt it was getting overdue for a crash.


Not quite working out as a hedge against inflation.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Coinbase lays off 1100. CAT hq leaving Illinois for Texas . Former NYSE pres says capital markets will be dead for a long time . What isnt dead is inflation.


I don't have much Coinbase, but I wish I didn’t have any.

----------


## oyarde

> Not quite working out as a hedge against inflation.


Ive suspected all along that its primarily been used as a store and slush fund  for winnings and losses  off the over valued stock markets.

----------


## oyarde

Bank of America says they expect 40 percent chance of zero growth second half of next yr . If that were the case and things were better second half of this yr and first half of next yr you'd still be looking at a lost yr of productivity out of two in the positive most likely. Hard to see that as a good scenario.

----------


## oyarde

> Powell: "No sign of broad slowdown in economy" 
> 
> LOL!!!


I also thought a chance of no recession until Yellen soid there shouldnt be. So far this yr I'm 100 percent by going withe the opposite of what they say.

----------


## oyarde

US credit card debt now exceeds 1.1 trillion. Mortgage rates reach 5.78 avg. Inflation the next two months not expected to improve.

----------


## oyarde

US rents surge to another new record of 14 percent April to April .

----------


## oyarde

Fed will raise rates 3/4 in Jul , 1/2 in Aug and hope for some improvement in Sept . By then the runaway inflation will be 1 1/2 years old and about 8 or 9 months in on stagflation. Big banks also expecting no economic growth second half of next yr.

----------


## oyarde

Sri Lankan govt has declared the economy has collapsed. Due to debt and unpaid debt they are hhaving a hard time buying food and energy even for cash .

----------


## Madison320

The Fed increased its balance sheet again for the 3rd week in a row. I think I'm the only person in the world who's noticed this. I think something is going on, they may be losing control of short term rates again like in the fall of 2019. They're going to have a problem if they hit 9 trillion, that'll get noticed, even by clueless financial reporters.

----------


## oyarde

> The Fed increased its balance sheet again for the 3rd week in a row. I think I'm the only person in the world who's noticed this. I think something is going on, they may be losing control of short term rates again like in the fall of 2019. They're going to have a problem if they hit 9 trillion, that'll get noticed, even by clueless financial reporters.


I have not really been expecting a big change in the balance sheet. I do think this fed has made the greatest case for elimnating the fed in recent history at least .

----------


## Madison320

> I have not really been expecting a big change in the balance sheet. I do think this fed has made the greatest case for eliminating the fed in recent history at least .


I'm just getting annoyed that no one seems to know where inflation is coming from. It's caused by printing money, period. In fact the proper definition for inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Rising prices is just an effect of inflation, not the inflation itself. And money printing is caused by excessive govt spending.

It seemed like there was a brief window when people were starting to get the concept, maybe 6 months ago. But now the democrats are pushing the idea that it's Putin and Greedy Big Business and republicans the idea that it's an oil supply problem so now I'm constantly reading articles and posts, even on this website, about what is causing inflation, and they don't even mention the printing of money and the govt spending.

----------


## oyarde

> I'm just getting annoyed that no one seems to know where inflation is coming from. It's caused by printing money, period. In fact the proper definition for inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Rising prices is just an effect of inflation, not the inflation itself. And money printing is caused by excessive govt spending.
> 
> It seemed like there was a brief window when people were starting to get the concept, maybe 6 months ago. But now the democrats are pushing the idea that it's Putin and Greedy Big Business and republicans the idea that it's an oil supply problem so now I'm constantly reading articles and posts, even on this website, about what is causing inflation, and they don't even mention the printing of money and the govt spending.


Well thats a serious problem that I dont expect to go away . Even if you got the general public to realize govt made all these worthless dollars you'd never get a dem congressman to even pretend that might be the case no matter what . Also the general public is retarded so no expectations there.

----------


## Madison320

> Well thats a serious problem that I dont expect to go away . Even if you got the general public to realize govt made all these worthless dollars you'd never get a dem congressman to even pretend that might be the case no matter what . Also the general public is retarded so no expectations there.


I think it's funny that the federal reserve claims their previous QE had nothing to do with current price inflation, but they need to do QT to cure current price inflation.

----------


## Occam's Banana

A tale in three tweets:

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...30257922703361


https://twitter.com/BusinessInsider/...77271431266308


https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...60593385291776

----------


## devil21

> A tale in three tweets:
> 
> https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...30257922703361
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/BusinessInsider/...77271431266308
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...60593385291776



Gee, if only there had been hundreds of books on it written over the last 100 years by Austrian economists?!?

I'm sure no one here believes his claptrap, though.  He knows exactly what he (Fed) is doing.

(eta:  and, imo, JPow's comment about Main Street's excess savings is a signal that price inflation will persist in order to drain those accounts.  As George Carlin said "they'll get it all back from you eventually)

----------


## Krugminator2

> Gee, if only there had been hundreds of books on it written over the last 100 years by Austrian economists?!?
> 
> I'm sure no one here believes his claptrap, though.  He knows exactly what he (Fed) is doing.


I don't think he does. The Fed doesn't believe M2 matters which is why they only publish it once a month. 

And apparently those Austrian economists don't understand inflation either (at least not the living ones)


*Double-Digit Inflation Bet with Bob 2009 Murphy  https://www.econlib.org/archives/200...igit_in_1.html "At any point between now and January 2013, if there is a year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then I pay Bob at that time $500."*




"I was going to wait until I officially won my inflation bet with Bob Murphy before announcing it here, but because Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman, each in his own special style, have already announced my win, Ill address it today.  https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/12/my_inflation_be.html


Six years ago, Robert Murphy and I made the following bet:  https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/01/i_win_my_inflat.html
"At any point between now and January 2016, if there is a year/year
increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%,"
t.  Indeed, _cumulative inflation over the entire period from January 2010 to November 2015 was only 9.5%.


_The Peter Schiff hits are endless 2011 https://www.businessinsider.com/pete...rinting-2011-3

----------


## oyarde

The fed is being run by people who couldnt run a lawn care business or a gas station . So is the white house and Congress and senate if you look at the actual leaders.

----------


## oyarde

Just think if there was too much money six months ago , look at all the money thats been put out of crypto and stocks and into cash since then .

----------


## Madison320

> I don't think he does. The Fed doesn't believe M2 matters which is why they only publish it once a month. 
> 
> And apparently those Austrian economists don't understand inflation either (at least not the living ones)
> 
> 
> *Double-Digit Inflation Bet with Bob 2009 Murphy  https://www.econlib.org/archives/200...igit_in_1.html "At any point between now and January 2013, if there is a year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then I pay Bob at that time $500."*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Who's more wrong, the few people who predicted inflation early or the 99% who said we only have to worry about deflation?

----------


## Madison320

> Just think if there was too much money six months ago , look at all the money thats been put out of crypto and stocks and into cash since then .


I don't think the crypto/stock crash adds to the amount of money chasing goods. The crash is just the perceived value of the crypto coming down, it's not adding to the amount of cash. If I buy a million dollars of bitcoin and it crashes to 0, I'm out a million in cash. 

I sold my house 3 years ago and invested the profit. Whenever my total investment goes up over a certain amount I sell it and use it to supplement my job income. So when it was going up it was great, I was looking for ways to spend money, but now it's down and I'm having to be frugal.

I think a common mistake is to only look at a portion of the economy. This is the main principle explained in hazlitt's book, economics in one lesson. For example if the government builds a stadium it looks like that's adding to the economy but what about all the money taken that is used to build the stadium?

I think the same thing is happening with inflation. We have inflated the money supply from 1 trillion to 9 trillion in the economy "as a whole". That money is moving around doing all sorts of crazy things. I think most attempts to calculate the amount of inflation are wrong based on the fact that they are not look at the economy "as a whole". They're just looking at parts of it. The way I look at it is that there's an underlying force that wants to drive prices up 9 times what they were. But I have very little idea how long that's going to take or which prices are going to rise or fall during the process. That being said I'm almost positive that the final resting place is in essential things like food, energy and shelter.

----------


## Madison320

> A tale in three tweets:



The narrative has gone from:

- Deflation is the only thing we have to worry about, not inflation.

- Inflation is only temporary.

- Inflation can easily be fixed because the economy is the strongest it's ever been.

- Fighting inflation may cause a mild downturn, but nothing close to a recession.

Just last week it was:

- Fighting inflation may cause a mild recession in the future.

Now it turns out we're in a recession so it's changed to 

- We're in a "technical recession" but not a real recession. But it's going to be mild.

The reality is that things are going to get much worse. We've been over-consuming decades and now we have to under-consume. It's not that complicated, it's not a conspiracy by "Them", it's just basic logic.

----------


## devil21

> I don't think he does. The Fed doesn't believe M2 matters which is why they only publish it once a month.


They know exactly what it means.  That's why CNBC shut Jim Grant down, full stop, the moment he brought up the large increase in M2 on the air in April 2020.  Perhaps you forgot about your posts in this thread back then?  Not only did the Fed change from weekly to monthly reporting they also changed how it's calculated and presented.  Even suggesting that the Fed doesn't understand it's own monetary base numbers and the impacts of them is too obtuse even for you Krug.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...reat-Recession

Whole thread is good for a historical review but oyarde accurately predicted inflation over a year ago due to M2 but JPow can't?  




> 05-26-2021, 10:31 AM #10
> oyarde
> 
>     Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
>     Commodities have pulled back from their highs. The headlines are saying the inflation scare is over. I think it's just getting started.
> 
> Ya I think its just about to start.


The Fed, along with connected corporations, who now own pretty much everything so they can set prices, are sucking money out of circulation to bring on defaults.  Great Depression playbook again.  Get everyone levered up and overextended then pull the money back out causing waves of defaults.  Price inflation is a tool to drain money that would otherwise go to servicing debt.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Who's more wrong, the few people who predicted inflation early or the 99% who said we only have to worry about deflation?


Both are horrible takes.   Maybe we should learn from the people who right in 2009 AND 2021.  I was ridiculed endlessly after the crisis on forums like this saying the Federal Reserve policy was way too tight and should be going much bigger.  Endlessly. Had these conversations with you for 10 years.  Then after the huge increase in the money supply starting in March 2020, I thought that would be highly inflationary because I didn't think the Federal Reserve would immediately start sopping up the excess liquidity.

This post I made early of 2021 is so good on so many levels. I should get some sort of poster of the century award. There should be some sort note that says genius next to my forum name. 




> M2 grew at 5.8% from 2009 to 2020. Has grown 26% in the last year. This time is different. Inflation is now a real concern.

----------


## oyarde

economy shrinks second quarter by about a percent as expected. so on avg through the first six months of the yr about a negative 1 1/4 .i'm not expecting jul to be better and think oct has potential to be worse.anyway  try and find something to be happy with because you are in a recession and there is ten percent or more inflation , your dollar is worthless and will become more so ea day. i'm cooking out bratwurst for lunch today , cut back on the ribeyes and i'm still happy.

----------


## Madison320

> economy shrinks second quarter by about a percent as expected. so on avg through the first six months of the yr about a negative 1 1/4 .i'm not expecting jul to be better and think oct has potential to be worse.anyway  try and find something to be happy with because you are in a recession and there is ten percent or more inflation , your dollar is worthless and will become more so ea day. i'm cooking out bratwurst for lunch today , cut back on the ribeyes and i'm still happy.


I've said this a million times so this'll be a million and one. We've probably applied the greatest amount of stimulus in the history of mankind over the last 12 years. 20 trillion in debt, 8 trillion in printed money, 5-7 trillion in trade deficits, 0% rates. We have to crash from all that stimulus, it's inevitable. And it's logical that the crash is proportional to the stimulus so hang on.

My guess over the next couple months is that price inflation comes down a little and at the same time the economy is going to continue to slow and unemployment will start to pickup. At some point soon recession is going to be a bigger political problem than inflation and at that point the Fed is going to pivot to lower rates and more QE.

----------


## oyarde

At this point I'm not expecting much improvement in inflation in July - Aug  or GDP or GDP in Oct or Jan - March.

----------


## CaptUSA

Don't worry...  The inflation-reduction-act-of-2022 will save the economy!!

How can you possibly vote against something with a name like that?!  Do you NOT want to reduce inflation?!!  Are you NOT a patriot?

----------


## Occam's Banana

> Don't worry...  The inflation-reduction-act-of-2022 will save the economy!!
> 
> How can you possibly vote against something with a name like that?!  Do you NOT want to reduce inflation?!!  Are you NOT a patriot?


*Fighting Inflation With Inflation - Razör Rants*
_"No, dig UP, stupid!" - Da Gubment_
https://odysee.com/@RazorFist:1/figh...n-raz%C3%B6r:d

----------


## acptulsa

"Only... Congress could spend twice the money they're going to save on saving it."

----------


## oyarde

Manchin a real loser . Voting for the 433 billion inflation act that provides nothing but pork to people making 300k and over to buy junk electric cars and to the IRS for more terrozing of the american citizen and more inflation. Disgraceful.

----------


## oyarde

Looks  like the new dem bill raises my taxes between 1.1 and 3.1 percent next yr  depending on if I turn in 10K or30k in income . Thats those dems always looking out for you . The new 15 percent mnimum corporate tax will push future jobs  further overseas also  along with a 25 billion oil tax to raise gas prices for the poor. Great job dumb $#@!s.

----------


## oyarde

New dem bill will give IRS 80 billion over ten years and add 87k irs agents which I think will bring the amount of annual ahdits to 2 million from the current 600 to 700k audits. All of this coming when you cannot even contact the IRS. I also project these expenditures to bring in zero cash . If it does raise any monies it will come from the low class suffering under inflation from this same govt. and it will not pay for this expansion. Current bill also expected to result in net loss of 30K private sector jobs further reduciing revenues. The destruction of america continues under dem house.

----------


## Madison320

> New dem bill will give IRS 80 billion over ten years and add 87k irs agents which I think will bring the amount of annual ahdits to 2 million from the current 600 to 700k audits. All of this coming when you cannot even contact the IRS. I also project these expenditures to bring in zero cash . If it does raise any monies it will come from the low class suffering under inflation from this same govt. and it will not pay for this expansion. Current bill also expected to result in net loss of 30K private sector jobs further reduciing revenues. The destruction of america continues under dem house.



It's been real quiet the two months or so. I have a feeling something is going to break soon. Our economy is addicted to stimulus and can't go without for very long.

Watch the federal debt. I think that's going to start to spike. When there's a recession the debt usually start to ramp up. Less tax revenue from income and more spending from unemployment, etc.

----------


## oyarde

In two days and three weeks we'll be starting our 9th month of stagflation. Thats lots of inflation and no growth for anyone who hasnt seen it before . Glad I'm done Christmas shopping

----------


## oyarde

New number is 8 1/2 with groceries up over another percent as last month. According to labor dept in past yr electricity up over 15 percent. I would expect food to continue to rise .

----------


## oyarde

Pelaton ( PTON , bike & tread machines) will be raising prices , outsourcing , laying off 800 workers in sweeping overhaul that will also close many retail show rooms in the future. This will be the third set of layoffs tis yr. Closing 16 North American warehouses and stopping delivery vans and drivers being employed by the company while axing half of customer support .

----------


## oyarde

US retail spending flat in july.Inflation rate in Turkey reaches highest level in 24 years.US economy leading index falls nearly a half percent , falling for fifth consecutive month as we enter the beginning of our 9th month of stagflation in two weeks. Still expecting the deadbeat fed to go big on next interest hike.

----------


## oyarde

US natural gas prices surge to 14 yr high

----------


## oyarde

Inflation still chooglin , new politburo number of 6.3. Ha , you'll dream of only 6.3 when the winter heat bills roll in. Consumer confidemce in the toilet , consumer spending flat. Can Christmas spirit and spending save a doomed america?

----------


## oyarde

3M getting ready to start announcing job cutss.

----------


## Madison320

> 3M getting ready to start announcing job cutss.



The national debt is really starting to accelerate. We're about to blow past 31 trillion. As I've said before I think a spike in the debt is a really good indicator of a recession. As the economy contracts the government collects less tax revenue and more people use handouts. And it's a number that's hard to fudge. 


https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data...t-to-the-penny

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## Occam's Banana

"growth recession" 

"They use language to manipulate, not to communicate." -- Michael Malice

https://twitter.com/i/events/1565407528103694336

----------


## oyarde

OK , where do they think the growth is coming from? US GDP averages from 2001 through 2021 ( 21 yrs ) 1.94 percent. That wont be seen in 2022 or 2023 most likely. Are they shooting for 2024 as they are with inflation ? It is ridiculous .

----------


## oyarde

> The national debt is really starting to accelerate. We're about to blow past 31 trillion. As I've said before I think a spike in the debt is a really good indicator of a recession. As the economy contracts the government collects less tax revenue and more people use handouts. And it's a number that's hard to fudge. 
> 
> 
> https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data...t-to-the-penny


21 yrs ago in 2000 the National debt was 5.7 trillion and GDP had grown over 4 percent for four consecutive yrs even with dot com bust. Since then avg of 1.9 percent while the debt increased roughly 450 percent.

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## Occam's Banana

> OK , where do they think the growth is coming from?


They don't really think "growth" is going to come from anywhere.

In fact, they don't really think at all - period. (This is not hyperbole or snark.)

Thinking requires meaning, and "growth recession" is just empty happy-talk that doesn't mean anything.




> "They use language to manipulate, not to communicate." -- Michael Malice


The (anti-)concept of "growth recession" is not meant to be understood. At most, it is meant to foster the illusion of understanding.

But they don't actually desire to understand anything - and they don't desire that you or I understand anything, either.

They merely desire to control - and they desire that you and I submit to their control. That is all there is to this.

----------


## oyarde

Eurozone inflation at 9.1 percent and expected to rise. Federal reserve warns no end in sight for inflation .

----------


## oyarde

It may be time to face some hard truth . American growth as been dismal overall for 21 3/4 yrs soon to be 23 yrs ( by the Feds own estimate ). Based on that fact we can safely assume business cannot generate an acceptable GDP because it has become too constrained by govt to do so. Since the dem solution from the dem house of reps is always more govt there is zero chance of success . Anyone who doesnt completely understand this only need look at GDP for Covid shutdown yr  ( 2020 -3.4 percent ) and covid reopen yr ( 2021 +5.7 percent) . If you shut down an entire economy and reopen it a yr later and only get plus 5.7 percent growth ( a number you should be close to about all the time ) while spending the past two decades increasing debt by 450 percent you are screwed.

----------


## Madison320

> It may be time to face some hard truth . American growth as been dismal overall for 21 3/4 yrs soon to be 23 yrs ( by the Feds own estimate ). Based on that fact we can safely assume business cannot generate an acceptable GDP because it has become too constrained by govt to do so. Since the dem solution from the dem house of reps is always more govt there is zero chance of success . Anyone who doesnt completely understand this only need look at GDP for Covid shutdown yr  ( 2020 -3.4 percent ) and covid reopen yr ( 2021 +5.7 percent) . If you shut down an entire economy and reopen it a yr later and only get plus 5.7 percent growth ( a number you should be close to about all the time ) while spending the past two decades increasing debt by 450 percent you are screwed.


To be fair the republicans spend almost as much as democrats.

2020 may have been a good year to illustrate my earlier point about debt as a good indicator of economic health. In 2020 the stock market skyrocketed but so did the debt. Also as you mentioned GDP was bad. It's pretty obvious that the economy was a wreck in 2020 so debt and gdp were much more accurate indicators compared to the stock market.

----------


## oyarde

Opec cuts supply , gas still 4 here , deisel 5 1/2.

----------


## oyarde

Inflation still in third world territory in a country with no positive gdp

----------


## Pauls' Revere

> If they are admitting a 5% jump, the true number is probably more like 15%-20%
> 
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/b...-may-2021.html


Correct sir!

And it also varies regionally. It's 13% in Phoenix for example. I would love to see an inflation map broken down by counties.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-with-13-rate

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## oyarde

Inflation still chooglin' . Personal Consumption Expenditures  price index showing 6.2 percent after the previous month revised to 6.4 percent. No difference as you can see . Gas and energy  prices rising here ( gasoline 4.10). During this entire time of rampant , run away third world inflation lower energy costs were te only thing that ever moved this index down. Mid Sept reading of same index shows further increase in inflation. Discretionary spending not going up so look for no improvements in Sept - Oct. . Enjpy your hot dog and water and be glad it isnt grasshoppers.

----------


## oyarde

Energy prices just keep on chooglin' . No inflation relief or GDP growth in sight. The good times are over .

----------


## Madison320

> Energy prices just keep on chooglin' . No inflation relief or GDP growth in sight. The good times are over .


We just blew thru the 31 trillion mark on the national debt. Yay!

----------


## oyarde

> We just blew thru the 31 trillion mark on the national debt. Yay!


debt up about 450 percent since year 2000 (5.8 trillion to 31 ) while the gdp is up about 40 percent  since then ( avg of 1.9 percent per year and going down). So thats a failed state that isnt coming back from the cliff edge . You cant run a successful country increasing debt like that

----------


## Madison320

> debt up about 450 percent since year 2000 (5.8 trillion ) while the gdp is up about 40 percent  since then ( avg of 1.9 percent per year and going down). So thats a failed state that isnt coming back from the cliff edge . You cant run a successful country increasing debt like that


I'm starting to think that the best way out is to partially default on the debt.

When you loan money to somebody you assume a certain amount of risk of default. Why should it be different when you loan it to the govt?

After the default it would be much harder for the US govt to borrow money, and that's a good thing.

----------


## oyarde

Another jumbo rate hike coming from fed next month.

----------


## oyarde

Bottom 90 percent of US saw debt increases of 300 billion ( 110 million houseolds).in past yr .New record.

----------


## oyarde

Russia declares facebook meta a terror group. Rumors are Alaska will cancel crab season.

----------


## oyarde

US producer price inflation reported at 8.5 percent . That is horribly high for wholesale. Should be plenty of third world inflation still around for Nov elections. Fresh veggies up 15.7 percent and rising .Enjoy. Dow up 137 on this great news.

----------


## oyarde

Americas six largest banks are putting back 4 1/2 billion to be used to cover expected loan  losses in Q3. 2022 second quarter saw deliinquent loans ( 30 to 89 days past due )rise 11.4 billion ( 25 percent ) over same period yr prior.

----------


## oyarde

inflation hot , hot , hot .New number from information bureau still over 8 and up about a half point from the month prior.Dow at risk for 27k soon.

----------


## gaazn

The next shock will be wintertime, the first one since natural gas prices have increased by 50% year-to-date.

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## Madison320

> The next shock will be wintertime, the first one since natural gas prices have increased by 50% year-to-date.


yeah, that's what I use. yay.

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## oyarde

bank of america estimates inflation to last a decade.

----------


## oyarde

At this point there is no reason to expect any growth until summer of 2024 at least also no reason to expect much improvement in inflation.

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## Madison320

Just saw a headline that says "Budget deficit shrank to 1.37 trillion in fiscal 2022."

First of all "shrank to 1.37 trillion" sounds kinda funny.

Second the actual deficit, which is the amount we borrowed, was 2.5 trillion. They don't count a lot of spending when then calculate the deficit. So we just borrowed 2.5 trillion and that was before the effects of the coming crash have been felt. I'm betting we borrow 4 trillion in FY2023.

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## oyarde

> Just saw a headline that says "Budget deficit shrank to 1.37 trillion in fiscal 2022."
> 
> First of all "shrank to 1.37 trillion" sounds kinda funny.
> 
> Second the actual deficit, which is the amount we borrowed, was 2.5 trillion. They don't count a lot of spending when then calculate the deficit. So we just borrowed 2.5 trillion and that was before the effects of the coming crash have been felt. I'm betting we borrow 4 trillion in FY2023.


US Federal tax revenue for fiscal yr 2021 was about four trillion ( 4.047), an all time high so figure roughly   they are adding  another 61 percent in debt over that this past fiscal yr.

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## Madison320

> US Federal tax revenue for fiscal yr 2021 was about four trillion ( 4.047), an all time high so figure roughly   they are adding  another 61 percent in debt over that this past fiscal yr.


I expect tax revenue to collapse over the next couple years as the recession deepens. 

Well at least until the Fed pivots ... then we'll have a spike up in a lot of things.

----------


## oyarde

> yeah, that's what I use. yay.


Projections are nearly a 30 percent increase so far in billing.

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## oyarde

I'm thinking next yr we could see double digit interest for home loans

----------


## Pauls' Revere

> I'm thinking next yr we could see double digit interest for home loans


You might be right, but gov. will intervene.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...090000513.html

There are two kinds of people, those who own houses and those that don't.

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## Madison320

> You might be right, but gov. will intervene.
> https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...090000513.html
> 
> There are two kinds of people, those who own houses and those that don't.


I think pretty much every economist in that article said we could never have higher inflation, the only thing we had to worry about is deflation. So they don't have much credibility.

But anyway I totally agree, the Fed/Govt is going to intervene at some point. Ultimately they'll intervene to prevent the US govt from defaulting on it's debt. But I think they'll intervene before that to prevent bank failures or some other crisis.

----------


## oyarde

Years of third world inflation are not free . The toll weighs heavy . Americas personal savings rate has fallen this quarter from last to the eigth lowest quarter in 75 yrs ( 1947) fallen from 3.4 percent of income to 3.3 percent of income which is dismal of course. Lowest level since the great obama - biden recession. Adjusted for inflation savings are down 88 percent from the 2020 peak and 61 percent lower than pre plague. Credit card debt up 13 percent this yr , the largest annual increase in twenty years . In case you are not aware the country is in much  worse shape than 20 years ago by an amount that is staggering. Americans ability to pay bills on time has fell for the first time in five yrs. The ghost of printing past will be with you for some time.

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## oyarde

Global markets down 28 trillion this yr. What will next yr bring ?

----------


## oyarde

After 1 1/2 yrs of runaway  third world  inflation americans celebrate by buying stocks. CPI comes in at 7.7 percent with higher food and fuel removed , Dow up 1201

----------


## oyarde

U.K. economy shrunk by .2 percent in Jul and Aug with wide spread reductions in mnfg . Bank of England still expecting an 8 quarter recession , stagflation , no growth and high inflation.

----------


## oyarde

Amazon layoffs rumored ( ny times) to start with 10K employees and could start this week , meta - facebook layoffs will be 11K or 13 percent of its workforce.

----------


## Madison320

> After 1 1/2 yrs of runaway  third world  inflation americans celebrate by buying stocks. CPI comes in at 7.7 percent with higher food and fuel removed , Dow up 1201


That shows you how desperate the markets are for the fed to pivot to easy monetary policy.

----------


## oyarde

US household debt climbs at fastest annual rate last quarter since 2008 even though interest rates charged to consumers  climbed to highest in several decades

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## oyarde

Inflation in UK reaches  11.1 percent , last time that high was 41 years ago.

----------


## Swordsmyth

Japanese Inflation At Forty-Year High

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...rty-year-high/

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## oyarde

Sales at brick and mortar stores after Thanksgiving were below pre plague numbers and down from last yr as well. General foot traffic down by more than ten percent from 2019, retail sales down 5 percent from last year and 9 percent from 2019. I see no reason not to expect inflation will continue this negative trend through next yr as well .

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## oyarde

US  in its glorious attempt to out  third world the third world saw an increase of about 40 percent in vegetable prices last month according to the  bureau of labor (dept) . Wholesale california romaine now 75 a case and was 25 a case last Jan. Thats nearly a 200 percent increase in  11 months . In case nobody has noticed , things are not improving .

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## oyarde

US household wealth down 13 1/2 trillion in first three quarters of 2022. To put that in perspective , only surpassed by the great obama- biden depression/crash following the 2008/2009 crash. We are now expecting a recession in 2023 but this precedes that .

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## oyarde

Americans cutting back on spending this Christmas . Tomorrow the new inflation number will come out . It is of no matter , doesnt matter if it is 7 1/4 or 7 1/2 it really isnt going down.

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## CaptUSA

> Americans cutting back on spending this Christmas . Tomorrow the new inflation number will come out . It is of no matter , doesnt matter if it is 7 1/4 or 7 1/2 it really isnt going down.


Well, we're starting to catch up to last year's peaks, so the percentage increase will probably start coming down because last year's increases are already baked in.  The media will say how Janet Yellen was right, but even if you take last year's 7% inflation and add it to this year's 6% inflation, that doesn't mean inflation is coming down.  So, even though you're right, they'll use the numbers game to run with their narrative.

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## Swordsmyth

Consumer Price Index Comes In Cooler Than Expected

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...than-expected/

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## CaptUSA

> Consumer Price Index Comes In Cooler Than Expected
> 
> https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...than-expected/





> The November Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed prices increased by *7.1% over the same time last year*, and only a 0.1% increase over the prior month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Tuesday.


November 2021 was 6.8% over 2020.  November 2022 was 7.1% over that.

But because it came in lower than the 7.3% predictions, they'll report this as good news.  The corporate press have zero shame.

----------


## Occam's Banana

> November 2021 was 6.8% over 2020.  November 2022 was 7.1% over that.
> 
> But because it came in lower than the 7.3% predictions, they'll report this as good news.  The corporate press have zero shame.


They are old and expert hands at such shenanigans.

(It's exactly the same thing they do when they apply the term "spending cut" to describe increased government spending on some line item, if the increase is less than a previously intended or budgeted amount.)

To paraphrase Michael Malice: They use language to manipulate and obfuscate, not to inform or communicate.

To quote him exactly:  _"The corporate press is factual but not truthful."_

----------


## Occam's Banana

_"I don't think anyone knows whether we're going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it's going to be a deep one or not. It's just ... it's not knowable."_ -- Jerome Powell

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/...64290941124613

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## Occam's Banana



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## oyarde

Even Christmas in America could not save the economy . Retail sales fall over a half percent in Nov from Oct according to bureau of kommerce . Spending on automobiles , clothing , sporting goods ( very bad sign), consumer electronics and furniture declined. Spending on groceries increased as expected due to the third world inflation ( 40 percent increase in vegetables alone ). Groceries and drinks in bars up nearly a percent while gas purchases fell only .1 percent but auto sales down nearly 2 1/2 percent . Americans are buying less gifts as they plan for the new depression expected to have already started.

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## Madison320

> _"I don't think anyone knows whether we're going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it's going to be a deep one or not. It's just ... it's not knowable."_ -- Jerome Powell


I think we're going to have a major depression based on the size of the bubble popping. And the size of the bubble is proportional to the amount of stimulus.

The 2008 financial crisis:

Borrowed: 5 trillion
Interest rates: 2% for 3 years
Money printed: -

The coming crisis:

Borrowed: 20 trillion
Interest rates: 0% for 10 years
Money printed: 8 trillion.

I think anyone saying otherwise is making the classic broken window fallacy. They're not looking at the economy as a whole, just whatever piece they've found that makes it look ok.

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## Madison320

> US household wealth down 13 1/2 trillion in first three quarters of 2022. To put that in perspective , only surpassed by the great obama- biden depression/crash following the 2008/2009 crash. We are now expecting a recession in 2023 but this precedes that .


You always seem to leave out Bush and Trump. Remember, the 2008 crash came on Bush's watch and Trump doubled the size of the govt in only 4 years.

Actually it's usually wrong to blame one party or the other for any particular economic event. The causes of most of these economic problems happen years before the problem surfaces. Mainly it's just too much spending, borrowing and printing. 

Both parties suck.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> 


 @Occam's Banana

Video Tax

----------


## Occam's Banana

> @Occam's Banana
> 
> Video Tax


Whenever I encounter "science" as a lone word (or in a context in which it is given emphasis), I always "hear" it in that voice.

----------


## oyarde

Car repossesion rates  for low income people  now exceed the 2019 plague shutdown. For more wealthy buyers  the avg payment of a new car is up 26 percent since 2019. ( 718.00 per month ) .With one in six buyers exceeding 1k per month . Repossesions are expected to increase drastically going forward.Pretty sure Bush didnt cause that.LOL

----------


## Anti Federalist

> Whenever I encounter "science" as a lone word (or in a context in which it is given emphasis), I always "hear" it in that voice.


Mind control music...you and me both.

Whenever Fauci the Fraud said "science" I heard it in that guy's voice as well.

"And the Good Dr. gets his come-uppance"

----------


## Occam's Banana

> It's exactly the same thing they do when they apply the term "spending cut" to describe increased government spending on some line item, *if the increase is less than a previously intended or budgeted amount*.


//




> https://twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/...37505141657600
> 
> 
> Hey, whattaya complainin' about, there, buddy? 
> 
> If "this bill spends less than [requested]", then it's a _spending cut_!
> 
> Surely, you're not opposed to spending cuts, are you? Of course not ...

----------


## Madison320

> //


I hate when people quote CBO estimates. They're a complete joke. They're consistently off by orders of magnitude. For example back in the late 1990s the CBO projected we were going to pay off the national debt in a few years. By 2008 the debt hit 10 trillion.

----------


## oyarde

in 2000 the debt was only 5.3 trillion .Almost 31 1/2 trillion today . so just use a formula of up 450 percent or more for the next 22 years and you see where you will be.

----------


## Occam's Banana

> It's exactly the same thing they do when they apply the term "spending cut" to describe increased government spending on some line item, *if the increase is less than a previously intended or budgeted amount*.


_quod erat demonstrandum_




> Senate republican leadership is excrement
> 
> https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1605535681396310016

----------


## Occam's Banana

> November 2021 was 6.8% over 2020.  November 2022 was 7.1% over that.
> 
> But because it came in lower than the 7.3% predictions, they'll report this as good news.  The corporate press have zero shame.


C'mon, man!

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1606273417640042497

----------


## oyarde

156.4 billion out of markets last week . 41.9 billion from stock equities ,10 Billion from bonds , 17.2 billion from value funds , 27.8 billion from passive equities , cash holdings reduced by 59.5 billion . Some of this  probably is some loss tax harvesting  as it will be portrayed but not at all most. These are record numbers.Tax harvesting will only be needed for other income as the markets themselves are losers this yr . S&P down 20 percent , Nasdaq down 30 percent .Inflation still over 7 percent even once you remove last months 40 percent increase in fresh vegetables and other food increases. Retail sales down in Nov .So there is no real positive spin here. Mid Jan to June 01 ought to set the pace as we go forward. Merry Christmas , make the most of your inflationary meals !

----------


## Madison320

> 156.4 billion out of markets last week . 41.9 billion from stock equities ,10 Billion from bonds , 17.2 billion from value funds , 27.8 billion from passive equities , cash holdings reduced by 59.5 billion . Some of this  probably is some loss tax harvesting  as it will be portrayed but not at all most. These are record numbers.Tax harvesting will only be needed for other income as the markets themselves are losers this yr . S&P down 20 percent , Nasdaq down 30 percent .Inflation still over 7 percent even once you remove last months 40 percent increase in fresh vegetables and other food increases. Retail sales down in Nov .So there is no real positive spin here. Mid Jan to June 01 ought to set the pace as we go forward. Merry Christmas , make the most of your inflationary meals !


Yeah, I saw that. I'm wondering if that's the inflation moving from assets like stocks to common goods like groceries.

----------


## oyarde

Ya , thats exctly what it is doing . Moving from bonds , stocks to groceries , utilities , taxes , gift cards etc

----------


## Swordsmyth

Japanese Inflation Hits 40-Year High

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-40-year-high/

----------


## oyarde

Goldman Sachs  planning on laying off 4K or 8 percent of workforce in mid Jan.

----------


## Swordsmyth

BOJ Conducts Emergency Bond Buying Operation

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ing-operation/

----------


## Madison320

> BOJ Conducts Emergency Bond Buying Operation
> 
> https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ing-operation/


If you think are debt levels are bad here, look at japan and you'll feel better.

I think the only thing keeping japan from a complete hyperinflationary collapse is their culture. They'll work 80 hours a week and live in an apartment the size of a closet to survive.  

That being said we probably have the second highest debt level compared to japan, especially if you use a more accurate measure like debt to revenue. I did the math a long time ago maybe 10 years ago and I think we were 3rd. Japan was 1st and I think italy or greece was 2nd and we were 3rd. By now I'm sure we're solidly in 2nd place.

----------


## acptulsa

https://twitter.com/mcyeetlock/statu...30004053917697

----------


## oyarde

Looking forward it seems as though inflation could be permanently be twice or more any GDP growth that could be obtained unless the economy totally collapsed . Say you could eventually summon 2 percent GDP on a consistent basis ( not been done in modern times) , I doubt youd get below 4 or 5 percent inflation.

----------


## oyarde

Labor Force Participation rate at 62.3 percent in Dec , below pre plague levels .  The avg work week has declined over the past two yrs and at 34.3 hours in Dec does not appear poised to improve gdp .

----------


## oyarde

Tomorrow will be new inflation number from the magic hat , could it be 6.6 ? 6.45 ? no matter . I see no changes for positive

----------


## oyarde

New number is 6.5 . Keeps on Chooglin'

----------


## Occam's Banana

*The ScienceTM*:

https://twitter.com/stocktalkweekly/...35030177050629

----------


## oyarde

Quite possibly in the next couple months inflation may not even go down. Fed probably moves a couple more 1/4 point moves and stops. That isnt ever going to reduce inflation under 4 perdent next yr and it could remain higher , say 5 percent easily. Keep in mind that percent has double  digit third world food inflation removed. Reality check , your still living in a third world coutry. Services less shelter rent was up .4 percent and could even cause increases in inflation in near fuure.

----------


## CaptUSA

> New number is 6.5 . Keeps on Chooglin'


6.5% above Dec 2021.  Which was 7% above 2020.  Only in clown world do people say that inflation is coming down.

----------


## Krugminator2

> 6.5% above Dec 2021.  Which was 7% above 2020.  Only in clown world do people say that inflation is coming down.


1. The rates you cited are backward looking and have nothing to do with what inflation is currently doing.  The current rate is lower than Dec 2020 and Dec 2021

2. Inflation is dropping precipitously and is much lower than currently stated because of how they calculate housing.  We are in deflation right now.

M2 growth is negative year over year which only happens a few times a century. The Fed's job should be done now.

----------


## CaptUSA

> The Fed's job should be done now.


If we're going to talk about what "should" be, the Fed shouldn't _have_ a job.

----------


## acptulsa

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/s...23303579303936

----------

