# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  What does the near future hold for gold (and silver)?

## Shane Harris

Just curious about the opinions of those here regarding the future of gold and silver in the next 2 years.

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## KEEF

I've been stocking up now for a couple of years.  Some people say it is a waste, my response to that is "No, it is a win win.  Either my gold and silver go up in value and I can get more money, and if it goes down, then it means I can spend more with my paychecks."

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## jbauer

Tell me whats going to happen in europe and I'll tell you how long we have left.  The time we have "left" will dictate the value of commodities.

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## oyarde

A few weeks ago Merill Lynch had a report out expecting gold to near 2k by years end , I have no idea what they are basing that on , but , even excluding Europe , just looking at projected US debt by 2015 , I would expect silver and gold prices to go up......

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## jbauer

In order for gold and silver to bounce out of where its been for awhile you have to have downward presure on the $ or upward presure on demand for the commodity.

So:  

1.  Europe gets better, the Euro advances on the dollar making it worth less (pun intended) the price for commodities increases because of the devaluation of the dollar.
1.1  Europe gets worse, people look for liquidity and saftey and buy tresuries like they've always done.  
2.  The world economy comes to a crawling hault prices in all commodities crash.
3.  The world economy CRASHES fast, the need for saftey assets goes through the roof and prices soar.

I'm in the slow long "painful death" camp when it comes to the world economy.  I think we'll print till we run out of ink and after that we'll buy more ink with our printed dollars.  I think it will take years pop this bubble because it will frankly be to painful to do it any other way.

As of right now I see more value in silver then in gold.

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## Shane Harris

> In order for gold and silver to bounce out of where its been for awhile you have to have downward presure on the $ or upward presure on demand for the commodity.
> 
> So:  
> 
> 1.  Europe gets better, the Euro advances on the dollar making it worth less (pun intended) the price for commodities increases because of the devaluation of the dollar.
> 1.1  Europe gets worse, people look for liquidity and saftey and buy tresuries like they've always done.  
> 2.  The world economy comes to a crawling hault prices in all commodities crash.
> 3.  The world economy CRASHES fast, the need for saftey assets goes through the roof and prices soar.
> 
> ...


I agree about silver versus gold and I also agree that the euro has a lot of impact on the short term market. I hope that this grinds out and gives me more time to collect silver since I've only just begun to purchase it (I'm at less than 10 oz currently). I also wouldn't mind the price going way down due to a failing euro (or JP Morgan manipulation) so I can buy even more at these already discounted prices.

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## oyarde

I have been buying silver all year and even a little copper . I bought silver consistently when in was $5 to $8 sold some at over $30 buying again at $27....

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## Bossobass

> In order for gold and silver to bounce out of where its been for awhile you have to have downward presure on the $...


Not so. The USDX is relative like everything else in the manipulated world of fractional reserve/fiat currency banking. The USDX was at its current level (around 83.00) in 2004 (silver spot was $7.00), 2007 (silver spot was $13.00) and 2008 (silver spot was $18.00). Today, with the USDX at the same place, silver spot is $28.00.

The USDX is just another way to lull everyone to sleep. It's 'value' rating of the USD is relative to a basket of other currencies, all of which are depreciating more or less as the dollar is and all of which are ink on paper and nothing more as the dollar is.

Against the USD, silver will increase regardless of the USDX, although I agree it will increase that much more if the USDX drops significantly from its current 83. 

I'm bullish.

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## Zippyjuan

Any significant moves in gold and silver will likely depend on people's expectations for the global economy. If things continue to muddle along as they are, their prices probably won't do much. If the economy improves, the price of gold and silver would most likely go lower. If things got a lot worse, that would likely push their prices higher. You are going to be basically placing a bet on what will happen with the economy.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen.  I think we will continue to muddle along for more than two years.

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## Elwar

Go with Bitcoin. It is like a commodity pre-IPO.

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## tbone717

I have nothing against buying gold and silver to preserve some value. Personally, though I would counsel others to put their money into assets that can actually produce income for them (rental properties, businesses, internet sites, etc).  Basically, if you had 100 grand in cash sitting around and you were trying to figure out what to with it, I would much prefer you to buy a property that can generate a monthly income for you, while still holding its value rather than on something that is speculative.

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## Seraphim

Generally a good idea, however, with muni's absolutely bankrupt - how likely do you think it is that propety taxes will go up A LOT? My bet? Very high probability.

Something to think about. 

Parking value in precious metals (as a large % of assets, not all) until THE GREAT RESET is complete - is very, very wise.




> I have nothing against buying gold and silver to preserve some value. Personally, though I would counsel others to put their money into assets that can actually produce income for them (rental properties, businesses, internet sites, etc).  Basically, if you had 100 grand in cash sitting around and you were trying to figure out what to with it, I would much prefer you to buy a property that can generate a monthly income for you, while still holding its value rather than on something that is speculative.

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## jbauer

The problem with the "great reset" is it could be days, decades or generations away.  I tend to think years, but who knows how long someone could manipulate the system?  Its worked this long and everyone is doing it.  Maybe they can keep the boat aflot for a lot longer then any of us give them credit for?

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## Shane Harris

> The problem with the "great reset" is it could be days, decades or generations away.  I tend to think years, but who knows how long someone could manipulate the system?  Its worked this long and everyone is doing it.  Maybe they can keep the boat aflot for a lot longer then any of us give them credit for?


I feel this way too. Regarding other commodities and 'investments', I am in college and therefore small silver purchases are feasible, whereas land and other large purchases are not.

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## oyarde

> I have nothing against buying gold and silver to preserve some value. Personally, though I would counsel others to put their money into assets that can actually produce income for them (rental properties, businesses, internet sites, etc).  Basically, if you had 100 grand in cash sitting around and you were trying to figure out what to with it, I would much prefer you to buy a property that can generate a monthly income for you, while still holding its value rather than on something that is speculative.


 It is past the point of being speculative unless someone believes things are going to get better ....

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## oyarde

By 2015 , at current rates, about , the debt will exceed 25 trillion , based on that , do you think silver will exceed $30 and gold exceed $1620 ?

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## DEGuy

Probably the most significant factor is how much of the "market" for silver and gold is just paper and doesn't really exist. If the big players keep creating downward pressure using PMs that don't really exist, they can keep the USD price low for a long time. When the demand for paper silver/gold falls apart, physical prices will likely skyrocket.

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## Steven Douglas

> Probably the most significant factor is how much of the "market" for silver and gold is just paper and doesn't really exist. If the big players keep creating downward pressure using PMs that don't really exist, they can keep the USD price low for a long time. When the demand for paper silver/gold falls apart, physical prices will likely skyrocket.


As long as JPM, COMEX, commodities traders, et al can convince everyone that paper is as good as physical, PM's will continue to be grossly undervalued.  If the demand for paper falls apart without a corresponding increase in the demand for physical, prices for both (since they're still coupled) will simply go down.  That's VERY good news for anyone buying physical (and can actually get it somewhere near the price of paper).  

It's not until paper decouples from physical (demand for paper way down, but demand for physical way up) that skyrocketing prices will result, as the non-distorted market value of the PM's finally start to find their real levels.   

I will not be the least bit surprised in the near future (next 1-2 years max) to see this decoupling preceded by a sudden epidemic of unjustified surprise margin calls, with glass walls broken in the middle of the night. People who actually did buy allocated physical through a trading firm, but were too stupid to take delivery, will be blindly ripped off, MF Global style but on a domino-effect scale, to cover big player positions.  When and if that happens, that's the point where big players can play the short-against-long games all they want, but at their own peril, as a trading firm's worst nightmare happens when they become their own customer for their own paper.

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## oyarde

Well , I have all of mine  , insured and in different locations ....

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## Shane Harris

> As long as JPM, COMEX, commodities traders, et al can convince everyone that paper is as good as physical, PM's will continue to be grossly undervalued.  If the demand for paper falls apart without a corresponding increase in the demand for physical, prices for both (since they're still coupled) will simply go down.  That's VERY good news for anyone buying physical (and can actually get it somewhere near the price of paper).  
> 
> It's not until paper decouples from physical (demand for paper way down, but demand for physical way up) that skyrocketing prices will result, as the non-distorted market value of the PM's finally start to find their real levels.   
> 
> I will not be the least bit surprised in the near future (next 1-2 years max) to see this decoupling preceded by a sudden epidemic of unjustified surprise margin calls, with glass walls broken in the middle of the night. People who actually did buy allocated physical through a trading firm, but were too stupid to take delivery, will be blindly ripped off, MF Global style but on a domino-effect scale, to cover big player positions.  When and if that happens, that's the point where big players can play the short-against-long games all they want, but at their own peril, as a trading firm's worst nightmare happens when they become their own customer for their own paper.


makes sense

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## jeremiahj13

I lost a buncha money on silver. I bought product from Kitco at about $36, and now they charge about $29 for the same product

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## Steven Douglas

> I lost a buncha money on silver. I bought product from Kitco at about $36, and now they charge about $29 for the same product


If you bought long, you lost nothing but the opportunity to have a wider margin of equity (for those purchases) had you known beforehand and waited to buy the dips.  But again, if you bought long, it's only a matter of time before you would consider your silver cheap at many times the price you paid for it.  If you bought short, on the other hand, thinking of it as an "investment", rather than a hedge, hoping to "flip" your silver and take some short term profits, that's another story.  If you actually sold your silver at $29, then yes, you certainly did lose.  

I'm all long. For the duration.  I never sell, and I never stop buying.  I bought at a slower pace at $45, and a more rapid pace at $26. But I never try to guess the dips and peaks. Let some other fool try that, I don't know anyone with a crystal ball, or who has inside information with COMEX or JPM, or any other factors that make PM curves hiccup and burp, climb and dive the way they do.  I don't need to know that.  I deal in mathematical certainties only and sure things wherever possible -- never short-term probabilities or gambles that are anyone's guess.  That makes me bullish and terminally lonnnnnnng on silver.

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## oyarde

I never bought anything over  $40 except cheap numistics ,but between 5 and 31 ,  and mostly , recently @ around 27 to 29 have bought heavily ...

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## oyarde

> I lost a buncha money on silver. I bought product from Kitco at about $36, and now they charge about $29 for the same product


  I have lost money on women , children , houses, stocks , govt , taxes etc, but never on coins, metals or land .....

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## jeremiahj13

> If you bought long, you lost nothing but the opportunity to have a wider margin of equity (for those purchases) had you known beforehand and waited to buy the dips.  But again, if you bought long, it's only a matter of time before you would consider your silver cheap at many times the price you paid for it.  If you bought short, on the other hand, thinking of it as an "investment", rather than a hedge, hoping to "flip" your silver and take some short term profits, that's another story.  If you actually sold your silver at $29, then yes, you certainly did lose.  
> 
> I'm all long. For the duration.  I never sell, and I never stop buying.  I bought at a slower pace at $45, and a more rapid pace at $26. But I never try to guess the dips and peaks. Let some other fool try that, I don't know anyone with a crystal ball, or who has inside information with COMEX or JPM, or any other factors that make PM curves hiccup and burp, climb and dive the way they do.  I don't need to know that.  I deal in mathematical certainties only and sure things wherever possible -- never short-term probabilities or gambles that are anyone's guess.  That makes me bullish and terminally lonnnnnnng on silver.


Yes but you only live once..  . I can't wait 60 years for it to go up either lol.
I touched my silver with my bare hands. Now I havn't looked at my silver in a while but the last time I did there was a dust-like blemish on the silver from me touching it.... Is this bad?

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## Steven Douglas

> Yes but you only live once..  . I can't wait 60 years for it to go up either lol.
> I touched my silver with my bare hands. Now I havn't looked at my silver in a while but the last time I did there was a dust-like blemish on the silver from me touching it.... Is this bad?


Nah, adds character. Awful taste, though, if you don't wash your hands.  

As for waiting for silver to go up, I'm straining at all my own credulity when I anticipate five years.  In truth, I don't think we have nearly that long to wait before SHTF.

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## oyarde

> Nah, adds character. Awful taste, though, if you don't wash your hands.  
> 
> As for waiting for silver to go up, I'm straining at all my own credulity when I anticipate five years.  In truth, I don't think we have nearly that long to wait before SHTF.


 I agree, looked to be out to 2016 -18 earlier on , but it has accelerated, looking like maybe by 2015 it could be bad .....

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## oyarde

I expect the near future will hold the same thing the long term future will , prices going up , that is why at $27 I was buying all I could , I wouldguess it to bethe last low ( just guessing ) . In order forit to go down , that means things would be getting better , now how  would that happen ?

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## Carson

Can't we all just get along...

I mean let loose of the idea of gold and silver *doing anything*. What it does good, and I mean real good, is *be what it is*. It is like a* rock* that way.

Now the dollar that is where big changes have been happening. It could be people are wising up to the counterfeiting.


Once you hear that the stock market went up today because the value of the dollar went down we should be on the road back to a sound dollar. Something we will once again be able to bank on.

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## Carson

> Nah, adds character. Awful taste, though, if you don't wash your hands.  
> 
> As for waiting for silver to go up, I'm straining at all my own credulity when I anticipate five years.  In truth, I don't think we have nearly that long to wait before SHTF.


I had some for years I never touched. I sort of wished I would have touched away.

Then again I seen some old coins go for a premium price because of the patina it had. It did look like the kind you would get from not ever touching it but where something in the atmosphere that changed it sort of like desert varnish might a rock in the desert.

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