# Liberty Movement > Defenders of Liberty > Justin Amash Forum >  *The Official Justin Amash Results Thread*

## biles1234

Polls close in an hour. Post results as they come in:

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/10PRI/
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/

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## Legend1104

Oh, crap! He is tied with 0%! This may be closer than we thought!

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## libertybrewcity

bump. i'll watch.

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## specsaregood

Yeah, baby!
3.7% reporting.
Amash 47.3%
Heacock 18.3%
Hardiman 15.3%
Johnson 9.9%
Overbeek 9.3%

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## libertybrewcity

Boom!

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## pcosmar

Ist District is going as expected,,
unfortunately.

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## Kludge

Amash: 47.3%
Heacock: 18.3%
Hardiman: 15.3%

~9k votes in.

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## MRoCkEd

Amash 46.3%, Heacock 18.7%, Hardiman 17.7% - 5.3% reporting

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## chudrockz

Big bump for Ron Paul having a friend in the House!!

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## MRoCkEd

MI-3: Amash 45.6%, Heacock 19.5%, Hardiman 19.3% - 14.0% reporting

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## farrar

I think he pretty much has this in the bag! Hell yeah!

Update: 45.8%-amash 19.3%-steve 18.7-Bill 8.9%-bob 7.3%-johnson 

16.3%reporting

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## Anti Federalist

Toady is the win.

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## farrar

haha, its getting better and better:

Amash has 46.4% to second places 19.1%.
17.1% precincts reporting.

Does anyone know if this district is traditionally republican or democrat? I hope he wins the general election too.

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## Legend1104

how would be his chances against the democrat in his district?

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## devil21

That's not even competitive lol.

He doesn't have to win by 50% or more right?  No run-off?

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## specsaregood

> Does anyone know if this district is traditionally republican or democrat? I hope he wins the general election too.


It is a republican lock in the general election.

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## chudrockz

Toady!!!

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## farrar

I read just a little while ago that the district is traditionally republican. It leans republican, its a republican year, and Amash is "a beast" to put it in terms of this 17 year old. I am very optomistic that there may actually be atleast two people in congress that agree with what I believe in. God thats amazing, until 6 months ago I thought everything I believed in was a lost cause for the seemingly more and more stagnet libertarian 3rd party. I'm so happy that America may have the opportunity to elect Amash along side Ron Paul. Haha, I'm beginning to have more and more hope for America.

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## sailingaway

Excellent!!!

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## RokiLothbard

Man!

That is an ass kicking. I thought Amash was a small favorite, but the race was gonna be close

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## tpreitzel

Justin did very well at ~ 42% of the vote. Anything around 20%, 1 out of 5, is good and anything near 33%, 1 out of 3, is quite good.  Personally, I'd rate 50% of the vote as excellent. Hopefully, he'll carry the momentum through the general election.

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## Michigan11

> Justin did very well at ~ 42% of the vote. Anything around 20%, 1 out of 5, is good and anything near 33%, 1 out of 3, is quite good.  Personally, I'd rate 50% of the vote as excellent. Hopefully, he'll carry the momentum through the general election.


Hell yeah! As others posted in the thread this is a republican seat, so he is pretty much set winning this primary. 

1776! Damn good day for this movement and liberty and freedom.

Ron Paul will have back up in the HOUSE!

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## Rothbardian Girl

Congrats to Amash!

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## speciallyblend

> Congrats to Amash!


someone should let the gop know maybe they will get a clue!!

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## biles1234

GO JUSTIN!!!

This is just the beginning, everybody.

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## Kregisen

> go justin!!!
> 
> This is just the beginning, everybody.


dun dun dun!!!

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## qwerty

GREAT NEWS!

Next Peter Schiff!!!!!

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## invisible

I would argue that this is the first true large-scale victory of Ron Paul's campaign.  Remember back in 2008, how he said that victory was not possible in the conventional sense, but that it was still possible to win?  He then urged his supporters to run for office, saying that this is how we take our country back.  Apparently Justin Amash ran for the state legislature at that time and has been in office since.  That gained him the policitical experience as well as a position of respect as an elected official in the GOP.  In just one term of the state legislature, he has used it as a springboard to win his Congressional primary in a R-safe district, and it looks like he is now on his way to joining Ron in DC.  While there have certainly been other candidates who have won their primaries, they have been in D-safe districts.  There have been several great candidates who have unfortunately not won their primaries.  While Rand looks poised to win, he had the advantage of his father's name recognition and donor list (although this in no way diminishes the hard work and great campaign he's running).  It would be great if Peter can pull off his primary in a week, but he will have an uphill battle in the general in a liberal state (again, this in no way diminishes the hard work of his campaign, and if he can pull off an upset victory next week in the primary, he'll be hailed as the genius he is).  Really, I think Justin Amish's win is more significant than many realize.  This is a serious over-the-fence grand slam in the space of two short years.  The success of his political career path should be studied carefully.  How did he turn 25% undecided in the polls into a win with 40%?  Hopefully we can replicate this success down in NC soon, and continue to do so across the country.

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## talkingpointes

Get Amash to endorse Schiff I think that would look great, just an idea. I think it is to be understood that Americans like an underdog and winners. Also mods are you going to send out emails about the success. I think you could effectively lure back people that might of not came on in a while or got discouraged the general contingency because of the seemingly overwhelming odds in the face of the mainstream.

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## speciallyblend

> GO JUSTIN!!!
> 
> This is just the beginning, everybody.


yep i will have news about Kevin Cannell(ron paul republican at local level) on august 10th We are Winning

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## freshjiva

Amash finished with 38,203 votes.

Just doing some analysis, Ron Paul finished with 54,475 total votes from Michigan, garnering him 4th place.

I think its safe to say Amash's votes would translate into votes for Ron Paul if he runs again in 2012.

In 2008, Michigan Disctrict 3 gave Ron a total of 3,616 votes, which accounted for 6.6% of his total Michigan support.

Assuming this ratio holds (again, this is purely for analytical purposes), if the 2012 Presidential Primary were held today, Ron would garner 578,833 total votes in the Michigan primary, with a +/- margin of error of roughly 150,000. *Therefore, given Justin Amash's performance and assuming the ratio of District 3-to-Michigan support holds, Ron would effectively carry Michigan.*

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## itshappening

> I would argue that this is the first true large-scale victory of Ron Paul's campaign.  Remember back in 2008, how he said that victory was not possible in the conventional sense, but that it was still possible to win?  He then urged his supporters to run for office, saying that this is how we take our country back.  Apparently Justin Amash ran for the state legislature at that time and has been in office since.  That gained him the policitical experience as well as a position of respect as an elected official in the GOP.  In just one term of the state legislature, he has used it as a springboard to win his Congressional primary in a R-safe district, and it looks like he is now on his way to joining Ron in DC.  While there have certainly been other candidates who have won their primaries, they have been in D-safe districts.  There have been several great candidates who have unfortunately not won their primaries.  While Rand looks poised to win, he had the advantage of his father's name recognition and donor list (although this in no way diminishes the hard work and great campaign he's running).  It would be great if Peter can pull off his primary in a week, but he will have an uphill battle in the general in a liberal state (again, this in no way diminishes the hard work of his campaign, and if he can pull off an upset victory next week in the primary, he'll be hailed as the genius he is).  Really, I think Justin Amish's win is more significant than many realize.  This is a serious over-the-fence grand slam in the space of two short years.  The success of his political career path should be studied carefully.  How did he turn 25% undecided in the polls into a win with 40%?  Hopefully we can replicate this success down in NC soon, and continue to do so across the country.



Amash can also build a name for himself as a Congressman and maybe run for Senate, surely people will turn on the Democrats there as that state is becoming an economic wasteland thanks to Democrat policies.  Levin is 76 and the other Senator only narrowly beat the Republican in 2001 

She is up in 2012, perhaps that is too soon

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## specsaregood

> Also mods are you going to send out emails about the success. I think you could effectively lure back people that might of not came on in a while or got discouraged the general contingency because of the seemingly overwhelming odds in the face of the mainstream.


I think that is a great idea.  You should forward this suggestion to Josh or Brian, the admins.  I don't think the mods can send out system wide messages.

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## Jordan

> *Therefore, given Justin Amash's performance and assuming the ratio of District 3-to-Michigan support holds, Ron would effectively carry Michigan.*


Doubtful.

Amash is one-step removed from Ron in that Amash supports the same ideas, but does not have the same media-bias baggage that Ron has.  Also, Amash has a connection to Michigan unlike any other candidate who ran in this particular race.  He stands on his own reputation, and receives frequent positive press for being the only "no" vote on key issues.

I wish we could say that every Amash voter will go on to vote for Ron, but I fear that simply isn't the case.

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## angelatc

> Doubtful.
> 
> Amash is one-step removed from Ron in that Amash supports the same ideas, but does not have the same media-bias baggage that Ron has.  Also, Amash has a connection to Michigan unlike any other candidate who ran in this particular race.  He stands on his own reputation, and receives frequent positive press for being the only "no" vote on key issues.
> 
> I wish we could say that every Amash voter will go on to vote for Ron, but I fear that simply isn't the case.


I'm not sure that Amash would carry Michigan right now.   This state is pretty solidly blue, complete with multi-generational welfare recipients and union stranglehold on the media.  

We have long way to go before we take back this state. The newly minted Republican nominee for governor has financially supported John Dingell, for heavens sakes.

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## Dark Aerow

> I'm not sure that Amash would carry Michigan right now.   This state is pretty solidly blue, complete with multi-generational welfare recipients and union stranglehold on the media.  
> 
> We have long way to go before we take back this state. The newly minted Republican nominee for governor has financially supported John Dingell, for heavens sakes.


Yea, this state really is in shambles thanks to Lyndon Johnsons "model cities/great society" programs implemented in Detroit in addition to the decades of steadily increasing government intervention/central planning.

MI-03 and west michigan are the exception to the rule, but even we have to live under many of the same oppressive rule of the state and federal governments.  The difference is that local government has remained much smaller over here...giving us some breathing room.

I didn't really like any of the candidates for governor, but Snyder was probably the worst out of the republican candidates...I would have much rather had any of the other 4 candidates.

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## daviddee

...

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## freshjiva

> Ugh.  You need to re-enter the world that I like to refer to as... reality.


Is it really that difficult to imagine Ron Paul winning the primary in Michigan? I'm not referring to him winning in a general. Just the primary.

Maybe even that is unrealistic, but hey, if Ron announces, we help him win, not for any other purpose. Play to win.

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## erowe1

> I think its safe to say Amash's votes would translate into votes for Ron Paul if he runs again in 2012.


It's definitely not safe to say that. Amash had a lot of mainstream support. And I bet his opponents could have cut deep into that if they had successfully gotten voters to see Amash as "the Ron Paul candidate."

I do think that Amash can help Ron Paul make inroads with Michigan Republican voters who wouldn't otherwise give him a second look in 2012, especially if Amash explicitly endorses him. But even then, you can't count on all Amash primary voters to go along in that.

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