# News & Current Events > Economy & Markets >  DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

## presence

*GTFO of Stock Market*

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## puppetmaster

What's that big red line?

It would detract from the debate....planned parenthood...general theft and coruption by our government

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## presence

> What's that big red line?



Impending doom.

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## timosman

> Impending doom.


Did you just discover technical analysis ?  You sound like a neophyte.

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## presence

> Did you just discover technical analysis ?  You sound like a neophyte.


LOL hardly 






h/t to our new RPF member bullhammer

Strong Buy 

SPXU





If you want to make money in the bear market instead of just hedge to fiat:


STRONG BUY 


SPXU


This is a "inverse" ETF of the S&P 500.   When the S&P goes up... it goes down and vice versa.



The ETF is leveraged so share value will go 10X when the S&P drops 20% or more.



Last 32.55


I expect a valuation of 200+ by January. When it breaks up it will happen almost instantly.


Its traded on NYSE as "ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500"




*I give it a MOON^3 rating.*

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## presence

> *#1* During one recent interview, Doug Casey stated that we are heading for “a catastrophe of historic proportions”…
> “With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units,” says investor Doug Casey, “*it’s building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions*.”
>  Doug Casey, a wildly successful investor who’s the head of the outfit Casey Research, is predicting doom and gloom for the global economy.
>  “I wouldn’t keep significant capital in banks,” he told_Reason_ magazine Editor-in-Chief Matt Welch. “Most of the banks in the world are bankrupt.”*#2* Bill Fleckenstein is warning that U.S. markets could be headed for calamity in the coming months…
> Noted short seller Bill Fleckenstein, who correctly  predicted the financial crisis in 2007, says he is one step closer to  opening up a short-focused fund for the first time since 2009. In the  meantime, *Fleckenstein says the entire market could be heading for calamity in the coming months*.
>  “*The market is uniquely crash-prone*,” Fleckenstein  told CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week. “I think the market is very brittle  because of high-frequency trading, ETFs, a lot of momentum investors. *I don’t think there’s going to be any painless back door*.”*#3* Richard Russell believes that the bear market that is coming “will tear apart the current economic system”…
> From my standpoint, this is the strangest period that I  have gone through since the 1940s. The Industrials are declining faster  than the Transports. If this continues, at some point the Industrials  will touch the Transports. When that happens, I believe a bear market  will be signaled, as both Industrials and Transports accelerate on the  downside.
>  I expect a brief period of higher prices which will draw in the amateurish retail public. *This brief breather will be followed by an historic bear market that will tear apart the current economic system*.*#4* Larry Edelson is “100% confident” that a global financial crisis will be triggered “within the next few months”…
> “*On October 7, 2015, the first economic supercycle since 1929 will trigger a global financial crisis of epic proportions*.  It will bring Europe, Japan and the United States to their knees,  sending nearly one billion human beings on a roller-coaster ride through  hell for the next five years. *A ride like no generation has ever seen. I am 100% confident it will hit within the next few months*.”*#5* John Hussman is warning that market conditions such as we are observing right now have only happened at a few key moments throughout our history…
> ...


http://www.prisonplanet.com/8-financ...-imminent.html

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## presence

The 7 yearh Shmita/Shemitah Cycle




> Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies and empires:
> 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
> 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
> 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
> 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
> 1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
> 1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
> 1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
> 1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
> ...


http://areyouready.co.za/shmita-year

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## presence



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## puppetmaster

I am ready

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## Dianne

> http://www.prisonplanet.com/8-financ...-imminent.html


OMG how depressing.    I believe it, I can feel it in the air.  Time to load up on cans of chicken noodle soup ( .

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## Dianne

I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash.    Anything else I need to do?

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## Zippyjuan

Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day?  PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!

Sell selll sell!!

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## Bossobass

> Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day?  PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Sell selll sell!!


Ron Paul is an idiot, follow Zippy!!!

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## presence

> Whoh! Market was down one quarter of a percent in a day?  PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Sell selll sell!!



You imply it would be better of me to inform my friends here at RPF of the stock market crash after it happens? 


I think you miss the point.  What happens on the day is just noise.   

All the major indexes are below 5 year linear support lines; this is a major fail quantitative indication.

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## Zippyjuan

Trends always have points above and below them. The line is the average of such points.  A day below the trend line does not necessarily mean a collapse is near. How many times in the past have the indexes gone below the trend line and a collapse followed?  How many times has it gone below the trend and a collapse not followed?  What is the accuracy of such a predictor? Five percent of the time?  Fifty percent of the time?  Seventy percent of the time?  If it is five percent, not worth getting excited over. Seventy percent accurate?  Worth paying attention to.  Since you are into chart analysis, I would expect you probably have the data on this. 




> What happens on the day is just noise.


That is true.

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## libertarianMoney

Forgive me if my burden of evidence is harder to meet when a first sentence that sounds like "THE SKY IS FALLING!"

I certainly don't have any faith in the market but if you're genuinely trying to convince people of impending doom I suspect you're not approaching it in quite the right way. Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.

Eh... but I'm stocked up on canned beans. I might lose a little in a market collapse but all the "I told you so"'s I'd get to deliver would be well worth it. 

Good luck to you sir. I hope your prediction pans out.

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## Zippyjuan

> Forgive me if my burden of evidence is harder to meet when a first sentence that sounds like "THE SKY IS FALLING!"
> 
> I certainly don't have any faith in the market but if you're genuinely trying to convince people of impending doom I suspect you're not approaching it in quite the right way. *Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.*
> 
> Eh... but I'm stocked up on canned beans. I might lose a little in a market collapse but all the "I told you so"'s I'd get to deliver would be well worth it. 
> 
> Good luck to you sir. I hope your prediction pans out.


Pump and dump? Predicting any stock will go up six times its current value in the next five months is a warning signal not to buy it. 




> Last 32.55
> 
> 
> I expect a valuation of 200+ by January. When it breaks up it will happen almost instantly.


It was over $1600 a share in 2009 and is $32 today. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPXU+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowCh  artStacking":true}   (choose "max" on chart).

Buying a stock which only does well if things go really bad is highly risky.

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## presence

> Recommending specific investments certainly doesn't help your case either.


SPXU is hardly a "specific investment" its an easily accessible ETF short on the S&P500.

Its nothing like recommending a specific stock.




> Pump and dump?


That's really funny.

You're kidding me right?

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## Zippyjuan

Call it what you want, it is a highly risky investment. Over most time periods, it loses money for investors.

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## timosman



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## dannno

> Call it what you want, it is a highly risky investment. Over most time periods, it loses money for investors.


How does it usually do during Shmita?

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## brandon

Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint?  Or is there something else here I'm missing?

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## presence

> How many times in the past have the indexes gone below the trend line and a collapse followed?  
> 
> []
> 
> Since you are into chart analysis, I would expect you probably have the data on this.






breach of five year linear support is not something to be scoffed at

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## William Tell

> I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash.    Anything else I need to do?


Stay out of the cities.

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## Warrior_of_Freedom

> Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint?  Or is there something else here I'm missing?


mspaint doesn't make lines that are that smooth

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## Zippyjuan

> How does it usually do during Shmita?



The current one ends September 13th. So far, the S&P has been doing pretty good. Proshares has gone from $44.80 to $32.89- off 25%.

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## Warrior_of_Freedom

> I'm silver, bitcoin and a little cash.    Anything else I need to do?


bitcoin will mean $#@! if a large catastrophe shuts down wide access to the internet or even electricity

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## Zippyjuan

> 


Pretty graph but still doesn't answer the question as to how often the predictor of stock falling below some "support level" is actually followed by a recession.  It does show that stocks have gone up and down. It does show how often it did. So how many times did it fail to predict? (I am not going to personally count all those littler downward jags followed by more increases but there are a whole lot more of them than the big ones).

Another point is that the slope of a "support line" or a "trend line" will depend heavily on the time frame (length) you give it and on the dates you start and stop it. It is really arbitrary- not a fixed point which cannot be crossed without a crisis. They change over time too.  A ten year line will have a different slope from a five year line or from a three year line. Are any of them more or less valid or more or less predictive?  Or are none of them necessarily predictive of the future?  If a line is crossed, are we guaranteed a recession?  No- we aren't.

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## devil21

> Are you really basing your argument on a red line you drew on a graph in mspaint?  *Or is there something else here I'm missing?*


Yeah, it's called the "big picture".

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## staerker

> bitcoin will mean $#@! if a large catastrophe shuts down wide access to the internet or even electricity


The discussion is about a market crash, not an approaching meteor. ?

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## wizardwatson

> How does it usually do during Shmita?


If you're asking that you aren't understanding the Mystery of the Shemitah.

It's not a recurring pattern.  It's a countdown.  Each Shemitah anomaly points to something.

The last two were very pronounced.

At the end of the Shemitah year, Elul 29 on the Hebrew calendar is when you wipe out debts.  

The Shemitah year ended in 2001 on September 17th.  That was Elul 29.  That was the stock crash day and the first day the market was open after September 11th, and thus was essentially the same "market day" as September 11th, 2001.  DJIA lost 7% of it's value that day.

The next Shemitah year ended in 2008 on September 29th.  That was also Elul 29.  That was the biggest stock crash of the 2008 recession.  Again the market lost 7% and a point value of 777.68.  

It's a countdown.

The next Shemitah ends this year on September 13th.  That's Elul 29.  It's a Sunday.  That means the last market day will be Friday, September 11th.  

But the end of "this" Shemitah year means something else.  It's also a once every 49 years jubilee year which starts on September 23rd.  So 2015 is kind of like a "super Shemitah" as Jonathan Cahn puts it.  The jubilee is the year of freedom and liberty and the year when people get returned to their land and their possession.  

Anyway, the reason we're seeing "shemitah cycles" isn't because God just makes them part of the fabric of nature.  It's because there's a message He is sending.  

These are just a few of the connections.  The more you look the picture only gets more refined.

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## jllundqu

> *GTFO of Stock Market*



BTFD!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## Warrior_of_Freedom

Mystery of the Shemitah sounds like a south park episode

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## Zippyjuan

We'll find out in about a month.

Actually the Shemitah is a year you are supposed to not plant any crops to let the soil recuperate.  It is also supposed to be the year you repay your debts and start out clean (its only reference to money). It doesn't care about the US stock market (America didn't even exist when the text was written).

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## jllundqu

Shemitah Shmemitah....  hokus pocus oogity boogity BOO!

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## wizardwatson

> Mystery of the Shemitah sounds like a south park episode


Well, all things related to God these days seem to be worthy of mockery in the minds of most, so I don't see why this would be received any differently.

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## wizardwatson

> Shemitah Shmemitah....  hokus pocus oogity boogity BOO!


Ditto.

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## Zippyjuan

> If you're asking that you aren't understanding the Mystery of the Shemitah.
> 
> It's not a recurring pattern.  It's a countdown.  Each Shemitah anomaly points to something.
> 
> The last two were very pronounced.
> 
> At the end of the Shemitah year, Elul 29 on the Hebrew calendar is when you wipe out debts.  
> 
> The Shemitah year ended in 2001 on September 17th.  That was Elul 29.  That was the stock crash day and the first day the market was open after September 11th, and thus was essentially the same "market day" as September 11th, 2001.  DJIA lost 7% of it's value that day.
> ...





> The next Shemitah year ended in 2008 on September 29th.  That was also Elul 29.  *That was the biggest stock crash of the 2008 recession*.  Again the market lost 7% and a point value of 777.68.


Biggest percent decline of 2008 was on October 15th of that year (off 7.87%). September 29th was 6.98%. 

October 10th also was worse in percent terms (7.33%) as was December 10th (7.70%). 

In points, yes it was the biggest. But in percent losses, it was fourth. The rest all came after Shemitah ended.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...strial_Average

The October 1987 stock market crash also came after Shemitah ended.

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## wizardwatson

> Biggest percent decline of 2008 was on October 15th of that year (off 7.87%). September 29th was 6.98%. October 10th also was worse in percent terms (7.33%) as was December 10th (7.70%). In points, yes it was the biggest. But in percent losses, it was fourth. The rest all came after Shemitah ended.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...strial_Average


Thanks for the clarification.  Volume-wise it was the biggest.  Percent-wise it was within less than 1% of the biggest.

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## presence

> BTFD!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## jllundqu

lol... putting a red nose-dive line on a chart isn't persuading many...  If I'm wrong, I'll own up to it... but what evidence you got to back up your claim of an 'impending crash' ..... and don't you dare say friggin "SHEMITAH!"   lmao

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## wizardwatson

> Biggest percent decline of 2008 was on October 15th of that year (off 7.87%). September 29th was 6.98%. 
> 
> October 10th also was worse in percent terms (7.33%) as was December 10th (7.70%). 
> 
> In points, yes it was the biggest. But in percent losses, it was fourth. The rest all came after Shemitah ended.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...strial_Average
> 
> The October 1987 stock market crash also came after Shemitah ended.


Also, a lot of your points are skeptical it seems with the implication that this is some "market predicter thing".  

The Shemitah Mystery that is exposited by Jonathan Cahn has less to do with markets and more to do with 9/11 and a coming judgement.  So to look at it through the lens of "it's market coincidence" isn't really fair since the 7 year cycle is only part of the story.  In fact in the Harbinger book in which Rabbi Cahn first talked about the  9 or so prophetic connections, the Shemitah thing was only one chapter.  

Anyway, point is, this "economic cycle" stuff as relates to the overall prophecy is just a piece of the puzzle.  It isn't even about the dates really.  Jonathan isn't claiming anything is going to happen on Elul 29, 2015.

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## Zippyjuan

Well, since God has explained it to Jonathan Cahn  and he has been kind enough to share it with the rest of the world...




> more to do with 9/11 and a coming judgement.


And once again, it all centers on the United States.

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## devil21

nm

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## wizardwatson

> Well, since God has explained it to Jonathan Cahn  and he has been kind enough to share it with the rest of the world...
> 
> And once again, it all centers on the United States.


Of course it centers on the United States.  We are the ones about to be judged.  Is it not blatantly obvious who God would be most pissed at?

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## presence

> lol... putting a red nose-dive line on a chart isn't persuading many...  If I'm wrong, I'll own up to it... but what evidence you got to back up your claim of an 'impending crash' ..... and don't you dare say friggin "SHEMITAH!"   lmao


I'm primarily a technical trader.   


We have a well established 5 year linear trendline in 3 indexes presented with multiple BTFD's touching down and bouncing off the trend over the half decade; establishing strong support.

Now, in the past 30 days, we have sideways action, in all three composite indexes, that moves south of the 5 year linear support.



_That's all the signal I need to not hold blue chips here._


Then you add in:

Shanghai imploding last month.
Eastern European Jewish influence of Wallstreet and their dogmatic beliefs about Shemitah
Ron Paul with strong bear outlook.
Many noteworthy analysts with the same bear outlook.


The writing is all over the wall in financial news:




> "We're looking at real weakness in the stock market here in the U.S.," Andrew Hecht said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "We've had a really good time in that market, and I think it's overdue for a correction."


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/05/commo...on-expert.html




> What's more, some highly cyclical industries, such as industrials, chips and railroads, are already in a correction. 
> 
>   The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) are both about 15% below their 52-week highs. 
>   Industrial conglomerate United Technologies (UTX) and railroad Union Pacific (UNP) are down more than 20% from their peaks. Forget a correction. That's a bear market. 
>    "There is a lot more turbulence in the market beneath the surface,"  said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust.


http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/28/inve...ks-correction/




> NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Technical signals are indicating that the stock market is close to correction territory.
> 
>   The *Nasdaq Composite Index* closed on Friday 2.7% below its high with declining weekly momentum. The *Standards & Poor's 500* ended the week below its key weekly moving average but with momentum inching higher. If those key averages end this week on or below 5,074 and 2,096, respectively, the downside risk is at least a correction, perhaps a bear market.


http://www.thestreet.com/story/13231...territory.html 





> Apple stock has broken its 200 day moving average (see daily chart) and  is currently testing its uptrend line from the 2013 lows (see weekly  chart).


How a deeper dive by Apple could crush this marketMarketWatch‎ - 1 day ago







> Warren Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been dumping its exposure to American stocks
> []
> other well-known billionaire investors are predicting a major correction  and shedding their once-heavyweight U.S. stocks, too. Billionaire  investor John Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., is unloading  certain U.S. stocks
> []
> It didn’t take long for Soros to lose faith in the U.S. markets.


http://www.profitconfidential.com/ec...-market-crash/



PPIIDC is in clear correction mode in the past 2 weeks
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PPIIDC

Which is all over the news:




> *Commodity Prices Expected to Remain Weak in 2015 Despite Slight ...*
> 
> World Bank Group-Jul 22, 2015
> “China and India have played a significant role in driving global consumption of _industrial commodities_ especially since the early 2000s.Financial Express
> *Industrial Metals Drive Commodities Down on China, Greece Woes*
> 
> Bloomberg-Jul 7, 2015
> Copper tumbled to a six-year low and nickel plummeted the most since 2010 as _industrial_ metals led a plunge in _commodities_ after China's ...
> 
> ...



Today on Marketwatch Trump calls bubble explosion imminent:



> “I think you’re creating a bubble and the bubble could explode,”


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/don...ble-2015-08-05

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## presence

> *The S&P 500 as I write is 1% below its all-time high.* _But after  going sideways for six months in a narrow 4% range between 2040 and  2130, it’s beginning to look weaker every day._
> 
> Key measures of market breadth, which focus on the percentage of stocks  participating in the advance to new highs, are falling apart left and  right.


http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1851...y-climbs-to-20




> As of the August 4 close, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average.
> 
> Also as of Tuesday’s close, the 50-day average of _net new highs_ (new  highs minus new lows) for the entire US market slipped to minus 70, a  negative level not seen since the October correction.
> 
> This confirms the work of Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader.com who  cited early this week that over half (252) of S&P 500 stocks were  in their own corrections of 10% or greater. And this is the highest  reading since July of 2000.

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## devil21

nm

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## jllundqu



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## presence

> Squeamish? Don’t look at the Athens Stock Exchange this morning. Maybe watch this video of a baby elephant chasing birds instead. Just don’t shoot it.
> Then  again, you’ve probably built up your market-crash tolerance after  bearing witness to the fun in China in recent weeks. Still, this  retreat, while not all that surprising, is particularly nasty. After a  five-week hiatus, Greek stocks are open for trading, and by trading, I  mean selling. 
> The more foreign markets tumble, the more fuel for bears awaiting our turn. 
> “Today,  the world is a lot bigger and a lot more interconnected, which is why  pipsqueak Greece had the macro implications that it did,” said Jared  Dillian of the Mauldin Economics blog.  “I wouldn’t say I’m scared, but 
> *
> I have a general anxiety of ‘something  bad’ happening in the world. 
> Something I didn’t use to worry about 10  years ago. 
> The risk of contagion is permanently higher.”*


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get...med-2015-08-03

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## presence

*AXEL MERK: Get ready for a bear market*Business Insider-Aug 4, 2015

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## presence

> *Crash Alarm: Apple Inc., Twitter Inc, Commodities, Greek Stocks, Chinese Stocks*  						 						  						 	SHARE ON:  		 	 		 	 	 			 	 	 	 	 		 	 	 		 	
> August 4, 2015, 12:55 PM EDT 
> 
>   						 														The month of August sure has started off with a bang.   Tech stocks are crashing, oil is crashing, industrial commodities are  crashing, Greek stocks crashed the moment that the Greek stock market  reopened for trading, and Chinese stocks continue to crash.  At this  point we have not seen a broad crash of U.S. stocks yet, but it is  important to note that the Dow is already down more than 700 points from  the peak in May.  If it continues to slide like it has in recent days,  it won’t be too long before we will officially reach “correction”  territory.  Just a few days ago, I described August as a “pivotal month“, and so far that is indeed turning out to be the case.
>  A full-blown financial crisis has not erupted yet, but we are well on the way.


http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/0...hinese-stocks/

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## presence

> Here are five troublesome signs to watch:
> *1. Confidence is crumbling:* Though  unemployment numbers continue to improve and the market has remained  firm, a host of confidence metrics seem to reflect a troubled view of  the overall economy. A recent USA Today/Wells Fargo survey  showed just 27% of Americans think the economy is good or very good,  with a mere 26% expecting things to be better next year. And a  small-business survey conducted by the National Federation of  Independent Businesses showed a steep drop in sentiment, with nine of 10 metrics falling and the overall measure of optimism back to pre-recession levels. 
>  As  for the market itself, the American Association of Individual Investors  continues to note increased bearish sentiment in its weekly survey,  with the latest numbers showing that more than 40% of traders are bearish — well above the long-term average of 30%.
> *2. Capex is negative:* For all the talk about high-growth at startups like Uber or about public companies such as Amazon.com (                                                                                                                                                                                                                       AMZN, +0.96%                                                                                                                                                             plowing profits into new  efforts, the numbers indicate that businesses are being quite stingy  with reinvestment. 
>  In fact, Standard & Poor’s recently estimated that total capital spending worldwide will be in the red this year — down about 1%,  based on “projected spending on factories and equipment by 2,000  nonfinancial companies.” That’s disturbing, and hints that companies are  doing more with less instead of actually investing in growth. Yes, a  lot of that is driven by an absolute horror show in the energy sector as  layoffs and shutdowns continue amid oil price declines. But energy is a  big deal — to the U.S. labor market, to the global economy, and to  investors — and simply viewing the world ex-energy is not a faithful  representation of the situation at hand.
> *3. Earnings and sales are negative:* Why is capex in the red? Because earnings growth is in the red. The most recent Earnings Insight report  from FactSet indicates a blended earnings decline of 1.3% in the second  quarter based on more than 350 S&P 500 stocks that have reported  thus far. The top line is shrinking even faster, with a blended decline  of 3.3%. Moreover, according to FactSet research, “Analysts are  expecting year-over-year declines in earnings to continue through Q315,  and year-over-year declines in revenue to continue through Q415.” Sure,  there are exceptions in the form of high-growth stocks including the three top momentum stocks I highlighted in a recent column, but the trend is decidedly unpleasant.
> *4. Margin debt:* You’ve probably heard the scary stories about the rise of margin debt in China,  and how investors who borrowed against their stocks are now in a world  of pain. It’s worth noting that margin debt in the U.S. is at all-time  highs, too. 
>  A recent _Financial Times_ article with the headline “U.S. equity margin debt flags market top”  notes that margin debt is up 11% since January to reach a record high —  even as the market has failed to go much of anywhere. If you believe  margin debt was part of the problem in China, then consider the role it  could play in an American market downturn as well.
> *5. Strong U.S. dollar signals trouble:* There are downsides to a strong U.S. dollar                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DXY, -0.02%                                                                                                                                                            at least from an investing  perspective. Multinational corporations domiciled here are a bit less  competitive, seeing weaker margins thanks to currency exchange issues as  well as weaker demand, as American exports get more expensive abroad. I  don’t think these issues alone are cause for panic, but the continued  strength of the dollar is also an indication of a flight to quality as  capital goes “risk off” — abandoning emerging markets, European equities  and just about any other asset class out there.
>  When investors  are this eager for dollars and this timid about other investments, it  doesn’t bode well for overall market sentiment — and it may not take  much for the “animal spirits” of the market to darken in the second half  of 2015.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/her...oon-2015-08-05

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## presence

> Today risk is everywhere! Valuations will never be as high in such a  period. So those who are saying this bull market still has some juice  because valuations haven't reached tech-bubble levels are kidding  themselves! Those valuations were an anomaly!
>  My research shows that valuations during calm geopolitical periods tend to be twice as high. But the valuations on this bad boy _are already higher than every bubble or major bull market peak over the past century_. The only real exception is the year 2000. And we're not far off 1929. And that's with the poor geopolitical period we're in!
>  That includes the major bull market peaks of 1937, 1965, and 2007.
>  So don't believe the "this is not a bubble" arguments. This is denial  plain and simple — which has happened in every single bubble in  history, especially near the top.
>  Even the German DAX bubble looks similar to the one past. China's  current bubble went up just as exponentially in one year as its most  recent big one did in two.
> 
> 
> 
>  If it looks like a bubble.
> ...


Read more:  http://economyandmarkets.com/markets...#ixzz3hyu3YHBR

----------


## presence

> Markets     			 |  			Wed Aug 5, 2015 12:40pm EDT                       Related:                               World 
> *Greek bank shares plunge for third day, drag down broader market*                       ATHENS                  |  				By George Georgiopoulos and Jeremy Gaunt


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QA0R520150805

----------


## presence

*Puerto Rico Crisis Goes From Bad to Worse*Mother Jones-12 hours ago
_Puerto Rico's_ economic _crisis_ has only gotten worse in the month since Gov. Alejandro García Padilla told the New York Times the island's $72 ...


*Puerto Rico Debt-Crisis Grows as Payments Halt, Bond Prices Fall*Bloomberg-Aug 4, 2015
_Puerto Rico's_ debt _crisis_ escalated as it suspended deposits into a fund that pays its general-obligation bonds and one of its agencies defaulted ...

_Puerto Rico's crisis_ ... in 2 minutes
CNNMoney-Aug 3, 2015
_Puerto Rico_ in default on massive debt
USA TODAY-Aug 3, 2015
Business Newsers Head to _Puerto Rico_ for Debt _Crisis_ Coverage
TVNewser-Aug 3, 2015
5 Questions About _Puerto Rico's_ Debt Troubles
New York Times-Aug 3, 2015
_Puerto Rico_ doesn't have the money
In-Depth-The Economist-Aug 4, 2015

----------


## presence

http://jubileedebt.org.uk/wp-content...trap_07.15.pdf

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Of course it centers on the United States.  We are the ones about to be judged.  Is it not blatantly obvious who God would be most pissed at?


There are and have been worse countries than the US.  And there have been worse incidents in the history of the world than 9/11 and no judgement day followed.  Sorry- we just aren't "special" enough.

----------


## Zippyjuan

nm

----------


## Dianne

> If you're asking that you aren't understanding the Mystery of the Shemitah.
> 
> It's not a recurring pattern.  It's a countdown.  Each Shemitah anomaly points to something.
> 
> The last two were very pronounced.
> 
> At the end of the Shemitah year, Elul 29 on the Hebrew calendar is when you wipe out debts.  
> 
> The Shemitah year ended in 2001 on September 17th.  That was Elul 29.  That was the stock crash day and the first day the market was open after September 11th, and thus was essentially the same "market day" as September 11th, 2001.  DJIA lost 7% of it's value that day.
> ...


Both those dates are so significant ... 9/13 and 9/11?   There are many other indicators from what I have read, regarding the Moon and the tie in with blood moons and the shemitah cycle.    I'll have to see if I can find that article again.

----------


## Dianne

http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/43...iLJRqs2KdLi.97

Jewish, Christian and secular writers are all focusing their attention on this coming September. Those whose eyes and ears are open understand that the time is pregnant with possibilities for a dramatic End of Days scenario. The end of the current Shemitah cycle, the final blood moon of the current series and worldwide economic instability are all set to converge in the coming months.

A Pattern of Economic Disruption

September 13, 2015 is the last day of the current seven-year agricultural cycle in Israel known as Shemitah. As Rabbi Lazer Brody points out in a recent article, the US economy has suffered from a collapse or crash at the end of at least the past seven Shemitah cycles.

For example, at the end of the previous Shemitah cycle in 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis in the US caused major financial markets to lose nearly a third of their value. At the close of the Shemitah cycle before that, the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 completely shut down Wall Street for a week. When the New York Stock Exchange reopened on September 17, 2001, the market fell 684 points in one day. At the end of the first week of trading following September 11, approximately $1.4 trillion in value was lost.

“The fact that the American economy has nose-dived at the termination of the Shemitta year is more than an established pattern,” Brody asserts. Will we see it again this coming September?

The last day of the current Shemitah year falls on a Sunday, when the US stock market is closed. Nevertheless, based on previous Shemitah cycles, a stock market crash could happen in the weeks just before or after September 13.

More doomsday financial predictions are being seen in Greece, where the country has until June 30 to decide whether or not to exit the European Central Bank. If Greece pulls out, the whole country would uncouple itself economically from the rest of Europe, stop using euro currency and return to using the drachma. Whatever happens on June 30, the economic crisis in Greece, many believe, will likely lead to some sort of ripple effect throughout Europe.

image: http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/wp...01-600WIDE.jpg

Dramatic Historical Events in Israel Connected to Blood Moons

Making the case that the end of the current Shemitah cycle in September 2015 is likely to have adverse effects on the world economy, especially in the US, leads to an important question: How does this connect to the blood moons?

The final blood moon of the current lunar tetrad (when four blood moons in a row occur six months apart) is set for September 28, 2015, very soon after the end of the Shemitah year on September 13. This date corresponds with the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, also known as the Feast of Tabernacles. Unlike the previous three, the fourth blood moon is expected to be visible in Jerusalem.

Recent lunar tetrads have coincided with events of tremendous historical significance for Israel. Four blood moons followed the reestablishment of the State of Israel in 1948. In 1967, there was one blood moon before the Six Day War when the divided city of Jerusalem was reunited and three following.

Said another way, during the blood moon tetrad of 1948, the Land of Israel was restored to the Jewish people. During the blood moon tetrad of 1967, the reunited city of Jerusalem was restored to the Jewish people. During the blood moon tetrad of 2015, will Israel will regain dominion over the Temple Mount and be able to restore God’s presence there after 2,000 years?

One indication that that Temple Mount might soon revert to Jewish hands is found in the story Breaking Israel News reported on June 15, 2015. Billions of dollars worth of gold exists in the mountains near Eilat. Its excavators, Temple Mount activist Rabbi Yehudah Glick and his partner Yehoshua Friedman, plan to mine the gold and use it towards the rebuilding of the Third Holy Temple.

Read more at http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/43...6BdLfthMokc.99

----------


## Lord Xar

well, truth be told -- according to Presences' post and the alignment of shemitah seems a bit curious.

It is of quiet concern that even if most of us do not believe in "shemitah", I'm fairly certain that very powerful others probably do. And their movements/actions could be a 
self-fulfilling prophecy.

Given two previous shemitah occasions that aligned with some very obvious events -- to wave off a coming third, nonchalantly, would be curious.

I mean, nobody finds the two previous shemitah events aligned conveniently to some serious events? Now, a third coming up -.....

----------


## Dianne

> well, truth be told -- according to Presences' post and the alignment of shemitah seems a bit curious.
> 
> It is of quiet concern that even if most of us do not believe in "shemitah", I'm fairly certain that very powerful others probably do. And their movements/actions could be a 
> self-fulfilling prophecy.
> 
> Given two previous shemitah occasions that aligned with some very obvious events -- to wave off a coming third, nonchalantly, would be curious.
> 
> I mean, nobody finds the two previous shemitah events aligned conveniently to some serious events? Now, a third coming up -.....


I'm keeping a heads up.   We have to all admit there have been some strange blood moons, blue moons this year.    I believe we are being warned, but who am I to say?  I believe there are far more powerful spirits than any of we mortals could dream of.

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://www.chabad.org/library/articl...-Shemittah.htm




> *What Is Shemittah?*
> 
> As soon as the Jews settled in the Holy Land,1 they began to count and observe seven-year cycles. Every cycle would culminate in a Sabbatical year,2 known as Shemittah,3 literally: “to release.”
> 
> The year following the destruction of the second Holy Temple was the first year of a seven-year Sabbatical cycle. In the Jewish calendar, counting from Creation, this was the year 3829, 68–69 CE on the secular calendar. By counting sevens from then, we see that the next Shemittah year will be the year 5775 after Creation, which runs from Sept. 25, 2014, through Sept. 13, 2015.
> 
> The The Shemittah year waives all outstanding debtsobservance of Shemittah has several dimensions. In the following paragraphs we will outline the basics of Shemittah observance. For more detailed information, please see our Loan Amnesty and Deserting the Farms sections.
> 
> Give Your Friend a Break
> ...


It is to focus on God- not money. Focusing on possible crashes is focusing on money-not God.  They took a break from financial matters (forgiving debts) and work (farming their crops).

----------


## timosman

> I mean, nobody finds the two previous shemitah events aligned conveniently to some serious events? Now, a third coming up -.....


The 8 year cycle of changing the occupancy of the White House. I have to admit, it does not have that much mystery to it.

----------


## dannno

> It is to focus on God- not money. Focusing on possible crashes is focusing on money-not God.


I'm not Jewish, why does it matter if I obey Shmita?




> They took a break from financial matters (forgiving debts) and work (farming their crops).


Did they have stock markets when the Bible was written?

----------


## oyarde

> The discussion is about a market crash, not an approaching meteor. ?


I figure the solar flares will kick in about the same time everyone loses half of the ol' 401k .

----------


## Ronin Truth

Perhaps the FRNs will collapse first.

----------


## fatjohn

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/fit%2Cgm...%2Cmbly%2Cgncr

Bad quarterly data crashes FOX, Viacom and Tesla.

Yesterday we had the Disney crash, Apple is way of its high, Exxon and Chevron are really feeling the oil slum.

The only companies that had a good quarter to report were Amazon and Facebook, which are trading at 100+ P/E already.

This baby is going down.

----------


## fatjohn

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/fit%2Cgm...%2Cmbly%2Cgncr

Bad quarterly data crashes FOX, Viacom and Tesla.

Yesterday we had the Disney crash, Apple is way of its high, Exxon and Chevron are really feeling the oil slum.

The only companies that had a good quarter to report were Amazon and Facebook, which are trading at 100+ P/E already.

This baby is going down.

----------


## fatjohn

> LOL hardly 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> h/t to our new RPF member bullhammer
> 
> ...


To be fair everyone needs to know that this is a speculative position. If you hold this for a year and the S&P stays flat, *you will lose money*. Last March this tracker bottomed at 34.04 when the S&P peaked at 2117 (just pulling data from a google graph here, not intraday max) Now the fund is at 33.76 while the S&P is 2082. 

Also I think it has less leverage than you think pres, it seems to be about 3x.

----------


## timosman

> Also I think it has less leverage than you think pres, it seems to be about 3x.


Yeah, that's pretty weak. I am still waiting for somebody like Peter Schiff to present a method on how to benefit from the upcoming collapse. So far, have not heard a thing.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/fit%2Cgm...%2Cmbly%2Cgncr
> 
> Bad quarterly data crashes FOX, Viacom and Tesla.
> 
> Yesterday we had the Disney crash, Apple is way of its high, Exxon and Chevron are really feeling the oil slum.
> 
> The only companies that had a good quarter to report were Amazon and Facebook, which are trading at 100+ P/E already.
> 
> This baby is going down.


Disney fell about ten percent.  It is now about the same level it was in April.  Not exactly a "crash".

----------


## Dforkus

> Disney fell about ten percent.  It is now about the same level it was in April.  Not exactly a "crash".


And amazon and facebook are hardly "the only companies" to report good earnings. It's impossible to predict the future, but it's easy to see some folks' obsession/fascination with gloom and doom...

I'll offer a counter narrative. The falling prices of oil, particularly that of diesel and natural gas is going to put a lid on wholesale price increases, and with no evidence of a wage/cost spiral, the fed will be able to forgo the expected early fall interest rate hike. That should put a decent floor on equity prices for the fourth quarter...

Am I right, I DONT KNOW, and neither do the people who say they do.

----------


## Jordan

(Won't lemme delete this. Ignore.)

----------


## Jordan

> LOL hardly 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> h/t to our new RPF member bullhammer
> 
> ...


I will bet anything against this prediction. SPXU will not go to $200 (split-adjusted) before January.

----------


## LibForestPaul

The currency wants to deflate. The banks will not allow it. Time to burn the system, and start anew. With the banking families all in agreement.

----------


## devil21

> I will bet anything against this prediction. SPXU will not go to $200 (split-adjusted) before January.


You bet against the prediction of $200?  Or the prediction that it will be a good ETF?  Or both?  I'd think most people would be quite happy with $100 but ymmv.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Are you going to buy shares in it? Place a bet on the Shemittah year?

(Anybody is free to answer- willing to put your money where your fears are?)

The fund is triple leveraged.  A one percent decline in the S&P 500 would mean a three percent gain in the stock.  If the crash is indeed coming, it could pay off nicely for you. If it doesn't come,  you lose money though.

----------


## devil21

> Are you going to buy shares in it? Place a bet on the Shemittah year?


I don't have the means to get into the market but I think it could be a good choice for those that can, so I'm curious to read his clarification.

eta:  the wrinkle here is that if the dollar revalues downward in the near future, as I expect it will, that could translate to a HIGHER market, since stocks are classically inflation hedges like metals.  All other things being equal, if one expects metals to rise then same _should_ apply to stocks.  A lot of moving parts in this ongoing process that are very difficult to predict to the point of betting 'money' that could go directly into metals into leveraged etfs and shorts instead, etc.  Not a time for the faint of heart or the low info investor to jump in.

----------


## fatjohn

> And amazon and facebook are hardly "the only companies" to report good earnings. It's impossible to predict the future, but it's easy to see some folks' obsession/fascination with gloom and doom...
> 
> I'll offer a counter narrative. The falling prices of oil, particularly that of diesel and natural gas is going to put a lid on wholesale price increases, and with no evidence of a wage/cost spiral, the fed will be able to forgo the expected early fall interest rate hike. That should put a decent floor on equity prices for the fourth quarter...
> 
> Am I right, I DONT KNOW, and neither do the people who say they do.


Ok well, I took your point and looked to it as objectively as I could. The earnings from the dow 30: 11 Good, 13 Bad, 3 Mixed and 3 TBD.

Bad:
MMM: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stoc...rts-1437654165
AMEX: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stoc...rts-1437654165
CAT: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stoc...rts-1437654165
AAPL: http://www.i4u.com/2015/07/93463/rea...-earnings-call
Chevron: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1855...s-10-impresses 
Exxon: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1855...s-10-impresses
DIS: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rks-post-gains
DD: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13233...s-outlook.html
GS: http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoineg...ge-litigation/
IBM: http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/ibm-shares-down-earnings/
P&G: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13237...mers-take.html
United Technologies: http://www.wsj.com/articles/united-t...lar-1437479479
Verizon: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13225...s-results.html

Mixed:
MacDonalds: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/23/mcdon...-earnings.html
Merck: http://moneymorning.com/2015/07/28/m...-pfe-nyse-mrk/
MSFT: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/micro...-56-cents.html

Good:
BA: http://uk.businessinsider.com/boeing...15-7?r=US&IR=T
KO: http://uk.businessinsider.com/coca-c...15-7?r=US&IR=T
GE: http://www.seattlepi.com/business/ar...ss-6390259.php
Intel: http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-...15-7?r=US&IR=T
Johnson&Johnson: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/johns...-expected.html
JPM: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/jpmor...ectations.html
Pfizer: http://moneymorning.com/2015/07/28/m...-pfe-nyse-mrk/
Nike: http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-doing-it.aspx
Travelers: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...1013XO20150721
United health: http://www.usnews.com/news/business/...t-2q-forecasts
Visa: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vis...lts-2015-07-23

TDB: CISCO, Home Depot, Walmart

----------


## Dianne

This was on Drudge this morning.   I don't know if this Stockman is any good or not.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stock...-stockman.html

Stocks are a 'disaster waiting to happen': Stockman

----------


## TheCount

Presence, Dianne, devil21:  Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

----------


## devil21

> Presence, Dianne, devil21:  Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?


Who said it would be over once September is over?  I can't speak for them but a stock crash is a drawn out decline that's not started and completed in a couple weeks.  Circuit breakers, PPT intervention, etc ensure it is a managed process.  2008 showed how it works.  Now we have "market glitches" and "hackers" to look forward to, as well.

----------


## presence

http://www.ft.com/fastft/374511/dow-...th-cross-chart




> *Dow Jones hits 'death cross'*
> 
>                  8 hours ago                                            
>  _URL_ _Twitter_ 
> 
>                                 It's considered an ominous signal for US equity investors who rely on technical indicators to shape their trading.
>   The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday hit its so-called 'death  cross' - a rather forbidding term for the moment when the index's 50-day  moving average slides below its 200-day moving average, *Kadhim Shubber reports in New York*.
>   On Tuesday, the US blue-chip index slipped roughly 1.2 per cent,  erasing Monday's 1.2 per cent gain. The drop was led by declines in  Apple, Goldman Sachs and Chevron shares.
>   The technical phenomenon is viewed by some as a sell-signal, ushering in further pressure on prices.
> ...

----------


## TheCount

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...t-time-4-years

The last time this happened, the dow dropped 1300 points (which zerohedge helpfully highlights), recovered within two months (not highlighted), and then went on a four year, 7000 point bull run (zerohedge left that part out of their article).

----------


## Zippyjuan

Up 240 points yesterday. Down 212 points today. Still up for the week.  Decline did not continue into the afternoon session. So far, it is a wash and not a crash.

As the article above notes:




> But while the death cross has appeal for fans of technical analysis, there's a fair bit of scepticism about how useful it is for predicting future price moves.
> Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist of Raymond James, says:
> 
> The track record of the death cross is dubious... Yes, it worked in 2007, but our interpretation of Dow Theory also sounded a sell signal on November 21, 2007.
> 
> Indeed, the S&P 500 has risen around 60 per cent since warnings of an "ultimate death cross" in July 2012.

----------


## presence

*DOOM*




> *The Dow's Fast and Wild Swings Are Giving Traders a Headache*
> 
> Lu Wang Joseph Ciolli 
> 
>    August 12, 2015 — 12:00 AM EDT    Updated on August 12, 2015 — 10:32 AM EDT   
> Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
> 
> 
> 
> ...



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ning-into-vise

----------


## presence

*Dow Jones Today Slumps 124 Points 
As Currency War Fears Accelerate*


https://moneymorning.com/2015/08/12/...rs-accelerate/


*Surprise China devaluation marks escalation of currency war*


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8aa542a-4...#axzz3idYHkj10





> Stock markets and currencies have all reacted negatively to the news  that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, is allowing the  yuan to trade weaker thereby ending a de-facto shadowing of the US  dollar.


http://www.scmp.com/business/markets...it-chinas-yuan

----------


## presence



----------


## dannno

> Presence, Dianne, devil21:  Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?


You'll know it when you see it.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


Whoh! Grab your hats for that crash! Run for the exits! Did you see how much the DOW fell today?  (0.33 points or 0.0%).

----------


## Zippyjuan

> You'll know it when you see it.


There isn't a solid definition but generally a drop of ten percent or more in a short period of time would be considered a crash.  In this case, a 1,750 point drop in the DOW. Lower drops are considered "corrections". 

Never a cloudy day?

----------


## presence

> Presence, []Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?


18300 DOW and 2130 S&P were May 2015 highs.


By end of September:

8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P  <16850 DOW


18 month outlook:

Nothing above May highs; 30%++  cumulative devaluation <1490 S&P   <12800 DOW

global economies in state of panic and default, china engaging in currency war tactics, impending death cross has turned to death cross, GTFO now

----------


## devil21

Down *.33%*, you say?  Another one of those pesky 'trigger' numbers....

----------


## Dianne

> Presence, Dianne, devil21:  Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?


Don't ask me, I have never been in the stock market.    I just posted an article I found on Drudge, for those of you who do invest.    I didn't even understand it, lol.

----------


## presence

Excellent article here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...iant-stop-hunt

----------


## Zippyjuan

Stock Market Crash Watch Day 3- DOW closes day up 5.74 points.

----------


## TheCount

> 18300 DOW and 2130 S&P were May 2015 highs.
> 
> 
> By end of September:
> 
> 8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P  <16850 DOW
> 
> 
> 18 month outlook:
> ...


I think it's a bit strange that you're including a 1% drop that has already occurred, but I applaud your willingness to forecast.

----------


## presence

> I think it's a bit strange that you're including a 1% drop that has already occurred, but I applaud your willingness to forecast.


As someone mentioned earlier usually you talk about crashes in terms of devaluation from the all time high; 10% the common benchmark for a mini crash that most long term retail investors seek to avoid.

----------


## Zippyjuan

A crash does not necessarily have to begin at an all time high.

----------


## jllundqu

Dow crashing up 54 pts!

----------


## TheCount

> crash that most long term retail investors seek to avoid.


I thought that the main concept behind long term investment is buy and hold rather than attempting to game market timing.

----------


## presence

> Dow crashing up 54 pts!


Static noise.   Zoom out.   Just another day "sideways" into the death cross on the 1 year.

----------


## Madison320

The units we're measuring the stock market in is what I'm worried about. I'm at the point where I was around 2007 (the impending market crash). Tired of arguing about it. Now I'm just waiting for the inevitable laws of economics to kick in.

----------


## LibForestPaul

> bitcoin will mean $#@! if a large catastrophe shuts down wide access to the internet or even electricity


bitcoin is bull$#@!. Until I see a bitcoin flag, and a bitcoin army, I have no intentions of trading in bitcoin. Money = intrinsic value, or value force by government decree. Bitcoin is neither

----------


## Zippyjuan

Crash Week ends with DOW up about 100 points for the week- even with a 200+ point decline on Tuesday.

----------


## devil21

> Crash Week ends with DOW up about 100 points for the week- even with a 200+ point decline on Tuesday.


annnnnd it's gone....

----------


## staerker

> bitcoin is bull$#@!. Until I see a bitcoin flag, and a bitcoin army, I have no intentions of trading in bitcoin. Money = intrinsic value, or value force by government decree. Bitcoin is neither


Gold has zero intrinsic value. It is expensive because the market decided it is.

Bitcoin (in contrast to gold,) offers enormous utility. If I had the funds, I could transfer billions in FRNs to you, in a text, across the globe, and no government would be able to do anything about it.

----------


## dannno

> annnnnd it's gone....

----------


## Madison320

> annnnnd it's gone....


Don't worry. According to the "experts" the US economy is still great, it's just those other economies dragging us down!


"Dow drops 358 points after China fears spur global sell-off "

"U.S. stocks sold off on Thursday as worries swirled over the state of many developed and emerging economies"

"U.S. stocks closed near session lows on Thursday, off more than 2 percent, as investors weighed continued uncertainty about the timing of a rate hike and concerns about global growth headed by slowing in China."

"U.S. stocks fell in choppy trading on Wednesday as minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting highlighted concern over the state of the global economy, driving markets to question the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates next month."

----------


## Madison320

If we don't get a rebound soon there's going to be another one of those "interviews with a Fed member" where they hint at no rate hike in September.

----------


## devil21

> Gold has zero intrinsic value. It is expensive because the market decided it is.
> 
> Bitcoin (in contrast to gold,) offers enormous utility. If I had the funds, I could transfer billions in FRNs to you, in a text, across the globe, and no government would be able to do anything about it.


Why not just give them the all digital currency they want?  Seems to me that bitcoin and similar iterations are nothing more than an nwo computer credit testbed.

Did you see non-intrinsic value metals react to the stock market, oil and dollar moves today?

----------


## dannno

> Why not just give them the all digital currency they want?  Seems to me that bitcoin and similar iterations are nothing more than an nwo computer credit testbed.
> 
> Did you see non-intrinsic value metals react to the stock market, oil and dollar moves today?


Bitcoin was created to subvert the elite's methods of wealth confiscation - PMs are a useful tool, but they are heavy, difficult to transport and can be confiscated. 

I'd like to see a future of free markets where gold, silver and bitcoin all play a role in helping people move around wealth and make transactions.

----------


## Dianne

> Bitcoin was created to subvert the elite's methods of wealth confiscation - PMs are a useful tool, but they are heavy, difficult to transport and can be confiscated. 
> 
> I'd like to see a future of free markets where gold, silver and bitcoin all play a role in helping people move around wealth and make transactions.


Me too !!   Let's hope it happens soon.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Seems to be a lot of uncertainty among investors these days which is typical for this time of year. They are jumping in either direction (up or down) at the slightest news it seems. Last week it was up 240 points one day, down 220 the next. Down 350 today?  Maybe up again tomorrow. we'll see.  The economy is neither booming or crashing so  neither should stocks but markets can be fickle.

----------


## devil21

> Bitcoin was created to subvert the elite's methods of wealth confiscation - PMs are a useful tool, but they are heavy, difficult to transport and can be confiscated.


I could be wrong but weren't the Silk Road bitcoins seized by the FBI somehow?  I'm certainly no expert on bitcoin (I did call the bitcoin pump and dump last year, however) but doesn't it require the internet to function?  And electricity?  And if the bitcoin exchanges themselves shut down, which has happened a few times already iirc, is bitcoin not then dead in the water unless everyone is using it?  

Blame it on my untrusting nature but I don't think much large scale development occurs, especially in software/tech fields these days, without CIA and DARPA types having a close hand in it.




> I'd like to see a future of free markets where gold, silver and bitcoin all play a role in helping people move around wealth and make transactions.


Me too.  But I don't think that was staerkler's premise so I objected.

----------


## dannno

> I could be wrong but weren't the Silk Road bitcoins seized by the FBI somehow?  I'm certainly no expert on bitcoin (I did call the bitcoin pump and dump last year, however) but doesn't it require the internet to function?  And electricity?  And if the bitcoin exchanges themselves shut down, which has happened a few times already iirc, is bitcoin not then dead in the water unless everyone is using it?  
> 
> Blame it on my untrusting nature but I don't think much large scale development occurs, especially in software/tech fields these days, without CIA and DARPA types having a close hand in it.
> 
> 
> 
> Me too.  But I don't think that was staerkler's premise so I objected.


The coins were seized, they must have figured out his password some how.

You should be skeptical, bitcoin isn't perfect.. it does require a functioning internet. But if the internet went down in the US, I'm pretty sure people in Europe could still use it.. and I'm pretty sure if you were some how, by sattelite or other means, able to access the internet in Europe you could do something with your coins. 

But it also has a lot of benefits, similar to gold in that you can't create more or duplicate it, and easier to transport. 

It's a risky investment, but I think it is worth utilizing to the extent you are able to make payments with it, and if you want to invest there is a huge potential upside.

----------


## Zippyjuan

If internet and electronic communications are down credit cards and bank accounts will be inaccessible too.

----------


## Madison320

I wonder what the "September Rate Hike" odds are now?

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

> The S&P 500 fell into the red for 2015 and closed down 1.1 percent for the year.
> 
> []
> 
> Stocks extended recent losses, with the major averages all below their 200-day moving averages.
> 
> The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 358 points, accelerating  losses in the close, with Merck and Disney leading all blue chips lower.  The index closed below 17,000 for the first time since Oct. 29, 2014,  and is off more than 4.5 percent for the year so far.
> 
> The Nasdaq Composite closed below its 200-day moving average for the  first time since Oct. 17, 2014. The index lost 2.8 percent to below  4,900
> ...


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-st...rns-weigh.html



its coming

----------


## presence

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-d...-us-2015-08-20




> *The Dow Theory just flashed a ‘sell’ signal        *                Published: Aug 20, 2015 5:17 p.m. ET
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  
>  
> 
> 
> ...

----------


## presence

*Nasdaq Breaks Below Key Technical Support, Plunges Most In 10 Months* 
       Submitted by Tyler Durden on  08/20/2015 12:56 -0400


NASDAQ




inShare8 

      The Nasdaq has dropped almost 3.5% in the last  3 days - the biggest drop since October 2014 collapse. This drop has  pushed the all-important tech high-flyer back below its 200-day moving  average for the first time since Oct 10th... *just before Bullard unleashed the threat of QE4...*

----------


## presence

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/marke...own-fears.html




> *Market Insider with Patti Domm* *Markets ride wave of global meltdown fears* Patti Domm													| @pattidomm 
> 
>  6 Hours AgoCNBC.com
> 	 		 			201
>  			SHARES
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...

----------


## staerker

> Why not just give them the all digital currency they want?  Seems to me that bitcoin and similar iterations are nothing more than an nwo computer credit testbed.
> 
> Did you see non-intrinsic value metals react to the stock market, oil and dollar moves today?





> Me too.  But I don't think that was staerkler's premise so I objected.


My comment wasn't to disparage commodities with no "intrinsic" value, but more of a hit on the term "intrinsic" itself. The market decides the true value.

And there are many reasons the market has decided cryptocurrencies have value. But the nwo part would not surprise me.

----------


## presence

Nasdaq 100 falls below 200-day moving average for first time in 10 months
MarketWatch‎ - 21 mins ago

----------


## presence

*STOCKS GET CRUSHED: Here's what you need to know
Business Insider-17 hours ago

Wall St. tumbles on global slowdown concern
Reuters-17 hours ago

U.S. Stocks See Fresh Pain
Nasdaq-24 minutes ago

Dow Falls 8% From All-Time High on China Slowdown
TheStreet.com-24 minutes ago*




> By end of September:
> 
> 8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P  <16850 DOW
> 
> 
> []
> 
> 
> GTFO now

----------


## Traditionalist

I pulled out of the market this week, I managed to break even. If I had stayed in I would have lost a ton. This is getting extremely scary. Waiting for a point to jump back in but I'd be cautious of false hope.

----------


## chronicaust

Damn, well that's what happens when you try to print your way out of a recession. Quitting that good ole dope is harder than you thought? Maybe you should have stayed sober.

----------


## presence

*US open: Dow plunges over 150 points as selloff continues
32 minutes ago


 S&P below 2K, Dow falls more than 325 points as growth concerns weigh 
1 Min Ago
*




> By end of September:
> 
> 8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; *<1950 S&P* <16850 DOW
> 
> 
> []
> 
> 
> GTFO now







> 18 month outlook:
> 
> Nothing above May highs; 
> *30%++  cumulative devaluation** 
> <1490 S&P   <12800 DOW*

----------


## thoughtomator

The big one is coming soon. This is pre-shock phase, count on a lot of volatility in the near term followed by a massive drop, which could be as soon as this week or as far out as December.

----------


## presence

> The big one is coming soon. This is pre-shock phase, count on a lot of volatility in the near term followed by a massive drop, which could be as soon as this week or as far out as December.

----------


## Traditionalist

This is bad. I'm officially out of the market completely today. You'd have to be suicidal to jump back in now. I see other investors on messageboards jumping in, trying to arbitrarily guess that this is the "bottom." They might be right, but that's a risky game. More like gambling than investing. I'm waiting this thing out for at least a month. Might be time to buy some more gold?

----------


## Madison320

I'm expecting to hear some sort of statement or interview with a Fed official that a rate hike is off the table for September. If that doesn't work they'll be more direct and specifically tell us there won't be a rate hike this year. If that doesn't work get ready for QE4. I don't know if this is the air finally coming out of the QE bubble or just a small leak but we'll see.

----------


## Zippyjuan

We had a similar week last year.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> I'm expecting to hear some sort of statement or interview with a Fed official that a rate hike is off the table for September. If that doesn't work they'll be more direct and specifically tell us there won't be a rate hike this year. If that doesn't work get ready for QE4. I don't know if this is the air finally coming out of the QE bubble or just a small leak but we'll see.


Fed won't meet until September 16- 17th. You likely won't hear anything either way before then.

----------


## jllundqu

Interesting to watch the emotional reactions from those in the market.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> This is bad. I'm officially out of the market completely today. You'd have to be suicidal to jump back in now. I see other investors on messageboards jumping in, trying to arbitrarily guess that this is the "bottom." They might be right, but that's a risky game. More like gambling than investing. I'm waiting this thing out for at least a month. Might be time to buy some more gold?


People who bail out on dips tend to lose money.  They miss the recovery cycle where it goes back up and don't get back in again (if they do) until after a good run of gains (which means gains are tougher after that).   If you want to invest in something, it should be more "buy and hold" unless you need the cash. Jumping around when things get tough eats into your returns.  Dips are often better to be buying than selling.  If you had bought in March, 2008 when the DOW had fallen to about 6500, you would have 1.6 times the money (160% gain).  If you waited until 2010, DOW was around 10000 and you would have 70% more (less than half the return).  If you bought gold in 2010, you would be just about even (zero percent gain).

----------


## thoughtomator

> Fed won't meet until September 16- 17th. You likely won't hear anything either way before then.


I suggest you put everything you have into the markets, it's got to bounce... right? BTFD has worked for years, nothing can go wrong, right? It's like free money!

----------


## Lightweis

Im going to buy this dip on Monday.

----------


## Madison320

> Fed won't meet until September 16- 17th. You likely won't hear anything either way before then.


It won't be an official meeting. It will be an unofficial interview.

----------


## Madison320

> People who bail out on dips tend to lose money.  They miss the recovery cycle where it goes back up and don't get back in again (if they do) until after a good run of gains (which means gains are tougher after that).   If you want to invest in something, it should be more "buy and hold" unless you need the cash. Jumping around when things get tough eats into your returns.  Dips are often better to be buying than selling.  If you had bought in March, 2008 when the DOW had fallen to about 6500, you would have 1.6 times the money (160% gain).  If you waited until 2010, DOW was around 10000 and you would have 70% more (less than half the return).  If you bought gold in 2010, you would be just about even (zero percent gain).


Ha! Ha! You've taken cherry picking to a new level!!! You are tooooo funnnyyy!!!!

----------


## dannno

> Im going to buy this dip on Monday.


You do that.

----------


## devil21

> You do that.


Clearly lightweis hasn't been reading my posts in this subforum.  Oh well, you can lead a horse to water blah blah.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce (or at least going sideways) next week from people like lightweis thinking its a BTFD moment but barring the Fed announcing no rate hike and another big ass QE in the next week or so, September's trajectory is clear.

----------


## presence

*
BOOM GOES BUST:  DOW -530* *
  

World's Richest People Lose $182 Billion as Market Rout Deepens... 

WEEKEND OF WORRY:  APPLE UGLY...

Signs of panic-like selling... 

China blamed for free-fall...

Oil biggest losing streak in 30 years...

CURRENCY COLLAPSE...

CLAIM: Dow 5,000? Yes, it could happen...*




> We had a similar week last year.

----------


## presence

> Don’t be surprised if stock markets stabilize or bounce back in the  next couple of days. Markets are due at least a short-term rally after  this week’s dramatic plunge. This usually happens after a sell-off, no  matter what the next big move is going to be. It doesn’t mean anything.
> But anyone who automatically assumes this is another easy “buying opportunity” is talking nonsense.
> For  the past couple of years, Wall Street’s perma-bulls have had it their  way. They’ve been gloating openly as stocks went up and up and up,  seemingly without pause.
> It got to the point that those warning about valuations and danger signs had been mocked into silence — or were simply ignored.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow...pen-2015-08-21

----------


## devil21

> We had a similar week last year.


Is that to mean the beginning of the Shemitah year looks a heck of a lot like the end of the Shemitah year?  <scribble scribble>

----------


## Traditionalist

> People who bail out on dips tend to lose money.  They miss the recovery cycle where it goes back up and don't get back in again (if they do) until after a good run of gains (which means gains are tougher after that).   If you want to invest in something, it should be more "buy and hold" unless you need the cash. Jumping around when things get tough eats into your returns.  Dips are often better to be buying than selling.  If you had bought in March, 2008 when the DOW had fallen to about 6500, you would have 1.6 times the money (160% gain).  If you waited until 2010, DOW was around 10000 and you would have 70% more (less than half the return).  If you bought gold in 2010, you would be just about even (zero percent gain).



True enough. On my current trades I broke even though, if I had stayed in I would be in the negatives. Buying into a down market after just a hint of recovery (no matter how small it is) seems to be the more logical approach for me at this point. I'm hoping for some sure signs next week but who knows. But right now I think the stocks I'm watching are still trying to find their bottom.

----------


## Lord Xar

My 401k is gonna take a beating....

Wondering if I should suspend my monthly allocation. I'm matched my first 3% by employer.

----------


## dannno

> My 401k is gonna take a beating....
> 
> Wondering if I should suspend my monthly allocation. I'm matched my first 3% by employer.


I moved about 80% of what I had in 401k stocks into cash/bonds a couple weeks ago. Obviously I would like to put that money into gold/silver/bitcoin, however that is not an option.

----------


## mad cow

> My 401k is gonna take a beating....
> 
> Wondering if I should suspend my monthly allocation. I'm matched my first 3% by employer.


Put it into a money market account at least up to the amount that is matched by your employer,that part is free money.
You will want cash to buy into the market at some point in the future.

----------


## presence

> You'll know it when you see it.

----------


## presence



----------


## Madison320

> Put it into a money market account at least up to the amount that is matched by your employer,that part is free money.
> You will want cash to buy into the market at some point in the future.


I wouldn't want to be holding too much cash. Real assets might crash but they'll usually bounce back. When the dollar crashes I seriously doubt it will come back.

----------


## enter`name`here

For 90% of people trying to time the market is a fools errand. the best plan is to come up with an asset allocation plan based on your time horizon and risk tolerance and re-balance periodically. If you insist on trying to play market swings you should temporarily adjust your weightings, but you shouldnt be completely in or out of the market unless you have a short time horizen or a low risk tolerance.

For my part i've been SLIGHTLY over weight cash since the end of QE (around 10% but recently as high as 20%, which is very high for a 20 something male with 30-40 year time horizen). I bought some s&p index etf's yesterday. I didnt do this because i think this is THE bottom, but simply because my asset allocation plan demanded it. I fully intend to go down to 5%  cash over the next few years. I generally don't like to give market predictions but if i had a gun to my head i would geuss we will go lower.... but I bought anyway, and ill buy again when we go lower.  Having a systen like this is not perfect but it takes some of the emotion out of the decision making process. 

making emotional decisions is what kills most retail mom and pop investors.

----------


## presence

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...global-markets





> *These Charts Show How Hard China Has Hit Global Markets*   The damage is everywhere 
> Trista Kelley Camila Russo 
> 
>     August 21, 2015 — 1:41 PM EDT    
> Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is going to dig deep.

SPXU ftw

----------


## presence



----------


## wizardwatson

So, presence, what's the next prediction?

We're only 22 days from Shemitah debt wipe date (which is also a solar eclipse just for good measure).

Should I be storing potable water?

----------


## Madison320

> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...global-markets
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is going to dig deep.
> 
> SPXU ftw




I think falling yields are a sign that this thing is far from over. It shows that most people still have faith in the dollar. QE4 will happen before the the real crisis, which is a dollar collapse.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> My 401k is gonna take a beating....
> 
> Wondering if I should suspend my monthly allocation. I'm matched my first 3% by employer.


That matching is equal to a 100% return on that money.  I doubt you can do better with anything else.  If you are worried, at least take the match money.

----------


## angelatc

> My 401k is gonna take a beating....
> 
> Wondering if I should suspend my monthly allocation. I'm matched my first 3% by employer.


No no no!  Buying during the valleys is where the real money is.  Just keep buying and holding.  Trust me on this.

----------


## presence

> No no no!  Buying during the valleys is where the real money is.  Just keep buying and holding.  Trust me on this.


Bulltrap




Let it fall.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Based on your chart, I would say we are in a "bear trap"- not a "bull trap".  Media hasn't been hyping how totally awesome stocks have been doing and there has not been a huge rush of individual investors into the market. 

The economy is not crashing so there is little reason aside from a market correction for stocks to crash.  Fundamentals are still steady. Not "booming" but steady. (I see Donald Trump thinks "real unemployment" is 42%).  I think this will be a short decline- not the "end of money as we know it" some hope it is. Jump out now and risk losing money after it goes back up.  People should be in stocks for the long term anyways.  Trying to react to ups and downs you usually miss the real action and make less money. You can't time it.  IF you are worried about fluctuations you probably should not be invested in anything except maybe a savings account.  Everything else will go up and down.

----------


## Zippyjuan

These two charts show that gold is not really a commodity.

----------


## presence

> You can't time it.


Have you seen Friday's SPXU chart? 

I'm in the midst of timing the $#@! out of it.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Are you shorting on stocks next week?  How long does your chart forecast it might last?  How low is it likely to go?

----------


## presence

> Are you shorting on stocks next week?


I expect to be short on the major indexes for the next 8-18 months.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Wow. A stock market decline to last that long? (thanks for sharing your projections!)

----------


## presence

I guess you missed page 4




> 18 month outlook:
> 
> Nothing above May highs; 30%++  cumulative devaluation <1490 S&P   <12800 DOW
> 
> global economies in state of panic and default, china engaging in  currency war tactics, impending death cross has turned to death cross,  GTFO now

----------


## Zippyjuan

I did kinda skim all the "gloom and doom".  I still think this is just a short term decline.  The economy just isn't that terrible right now.  We have been hearing "crash soon!" for some six or seven years now.

----------


## Lord Xar

> Put it into a money market account at least up to the amount that is matched by your employer,that part is free money.
> You will want cash to buy into the market at some point in the future.


Yeah - my company only offers Fidelity stocks for the 401k, BUT there are a few bond choices.

----------


## presence

> So, presence, what's the next prediction?


look for financial news keywords:

circuit breakers
margin calls

----------


## presence

*Jul 28, 2015*

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51628.html




> Yesterday's inexplicable drop on the heels of all attempts to put a    floor under stocks (and manipulate them higher) was truly indicative of    what free markets can do to central planning's "hopes and dreams."
> 
>  A total of 1,500 shares, or half of all listed stocks that were    trading yesterday, were halted when they hit the 10% down limit that    triggers market "circuit-breakers."
> 
>   If we were looking for proof that the markets are bigger than those who would manipulate them, we've got it now…
>  If the investing (or was that speculating?) public can't sell shares    that are halted or meet margin requirements without selling more  stock,   and all attempts by the government fail to stem widespread  panic   selling, there will be a crash.
> 
> *A devastating market crash in China would upend the Chinese economy    and undoubtedly create a wave of contagion that could take stocks down    across the globe.*



*google trends "shanghai composite"*




*Stocks Fall Most in 4 Years as China Dread Sinks Global Markets
**Bloomberg‎ - 3 days ago*

*European stock futures fall sharply, tracking fall in US and Asian markets - @Reuters - breakingnews.com*

----------


## Zippyjuan

> look for financial news keywords:
> 
> circuit breakers
> margin calls


Circuit Breakers: 




> *Level 1 Halt*
> 
> A 1,200-point drop in the Dow industrial average before 2 p.m. ET will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. ET; and have no effect if happens at 2:30 p.m. or later, unless there is a level 2 halt.
> 
> *Level 2 Halt*
> 
> A 2,400-point drop in the Dow industrials before 1 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if occurs between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2 p.m. or later.
> 
> *Level 3 Halt*
> ...


The actual breakers are percentage declines in one day.  First breaker is 10%, second is a 20% decline, third is a 30% decline.  Points shown were based on a DOW of 12,000.  Today would be based on what the DOW was on July 1st or 17,619.51. 

That means that a Tier One circuit breaker would kick in if the DOW lost *1,762 points* in one day. Second tier if it falls 3,580 points in a day.

Margin calls can happen at any time. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp




> *DEFINITION of 'Margin Call'*
> 
> A broker's demand on an investor using margin to deposit additional money or securities so that the margin account is brought up to the minimum maintenance margin. Margin calls occur when your account value depresses to a value calculated by the broker's particular formula.
> 
> This is sometimes called a "fed call" or "maintenance call."
> 
> INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Margin Call'
> You would receive a margin call from a broker if one or more of the securities you had bought (with borrowed money) decreased in value past a certain point. You would be forced either to deposit more money in the account or to sell off some of your assets.


Say you are betting stocks will go down and you leveraged your bet (borrowed money) from your broker to try to multiply your returns (you bet you get a return greater than the cost of borrowing the money- if you are right- you can win big but if you are wrong- you can go broke- it is a very risky play). You put in $1000 and borrowed $3000 for a total investment of $4,000.  If stocks instead go up by enough that the position you are in loses a value worth what you personally put up (in this case, $1000), you either have to borrow more money to stay in or can be forced to sell you shares to pay back the people (brokers) you borrowed from meaning you lose all of your money. 

Margin calls can (and do) happen in good markets and bad.  Just means you made a bad guess on what your investment will do.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> *Jul 28, 2015*
> 
> http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51628.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *google trends "shanghai composite"*
> 
> ...


Just to see where we are in China, the Shanghai Exchange Index is currently 3,507.  That won't mean much to anybody since it is just a number but how does that compare to say a year ago?  One year ago the index was 2,229 so despite all what we have heard about a Chinese Stock Market Crash it is still *up 57% from a year ago*- a huge increase compared to any other stock market. The high was 5166 in June- more than double from the year before.   It is still a bubble deflating. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND

China's economy too is still growing and not collapsing. It is just growing at a slower rate than it was in the past. Double digit growth cannot be sustained indefinitely. 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-gd...ars-1421719453




> BEIJING—China’s economic growth slowed to 7.4% in 2014, downshifting to a level not seen in a quarter century and firmly marking the end of a high-growth heyday that buoyed global demand for everything from iron ore to designer handbags.
> 
> The slipping momentum in China, which reported economic growth of 7.7% in 2013, has reverberated around the world, sending prices for commodities tumbling and weakening an already soft global economy.
> 
> China’s economy grew 7.3% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, buttressed by targeted moves to ease borrowing. But it continued to face a housing glut, soaring debt and overcapacity in many industries, factors likely to erode growth in 2015.


IF the US were growing at 7.3% there would be concerns about our economy "overheating".  In China, that is a "slowdown".

----------


## TheNewYorker

What's stocks to invest in.  this talk about George Soros buying BTU made me want to try the stock market game. Reason being I meet a guy who is day trader and makes a killing. I quit my day job Friday and put my entire savings account into BTU and GOOG shares. Any other good ones?

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Yeah - my company only offers Fidelity stocks for the 401k, BUT there are a few bond choices.


Bonds do well if interest rates are falling- and they have been falling since about 1980 so they have had a good run.  If the Fed does actually start to raise interest rates, bond prices could fall. This applies to people or funds which trade bonds. If you buy and hold bonds, then you collect the face value interest rate.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What's stocks to invest in.  this talk about George Soros buying BTU made me want to try the stock market game. Reason being I meet a guy who is day trader and makes a killing. I quit my day job Friday and put my entire savings account into BTU and GOOG shares. Any other good ones?


If you have indeed quit your job and put "all your savings" into those two stocks, you have no money left to invest in other ones.   Day trading is a hard way to make a living- many try but few are actually very successful at it.  Buy and hold is better because the more you trade, the more you lower your returns (each trade costs money- not just in transactions costs but in short term capital gains taxes as well).  

You also need diversity- not just one or two stocks- to spread risk.  I like index funds for their diversity and very low costs. There are many different funds tracking many different indexes.  And since they aren't chasing returns by trading for what they think will be hot in the next quarter but just matching the stocks in the index, they aren't trading shares within the fund and that keeps costs lower which means more money for you. 

  For individual stocks, check into what a DRIP is- (Dividend Re_Investment Plans).  It is the lowest cost way to own individual stocks (each have their own rules on things like minimum purchases and investment requirements).  Basically you buy a dividend paying stock and they take the  dividend payout and instead of sending you a taxable check, they roll the money over into more shares of the stock (usually at zero transaction fee).  I added $5,000 to my account recently and was charged $0.18 (yes, eighteen cents) transaction costs.  Buying shares at say ETrade may cost $7 a pop.

----------


## Warrior_of_Freedom

This is all part of the moon cycle. Did you know all horrible events in human history happened while the near side of the moon was facing the earth?

----------


## Danke



----------


## mad cow

> Yeah - my company only offers Fidelity stocks for the 401k, BUT there are a few bond choices.


Does your IRA offer one called SPAXX?I have an inherited Fidelity IRA from my Dad that offers it,and for various reasons was 89% in SPAXX,the remainder in 3 or 4 bond funds last Thursday and Friday.
The SPAXX part fell $0.00 and the whole thing lost way less than 1/10 of 1% over that period.

----------


## devil21

Dow futures -428.  Short of furious PPT funny business or a new QE announcement, Monday looks like a bloodbath, maybe a circuit breaker day.  I hope you folks are mostly out of the stock markets other than VIX and shorts.  It's gonna be a looooong September.  The paper wealth game is dying, by design, right in front of you and a reset is the goal.  Act accordingly.

----------


## TheNewYorker

> If you have indeed quit your job and put "all your savings" into those two stocks, you have no money left to invest in other ones.   Day trading is a hard way to make a living- many try but few are actually very successful at it.  Buy and hold is better because the more you trade, the more you lower your returns (each trade costs money- not just in transactions costs but in short term capital gains taxes as well).  
> 
> You also need diversity- not just one or two stocks- to spread risk.  I like index funds for their diversity and very low costs. There are many different funds tracking many different indexes.  And since they aren't chasing returns by trading for what they think will be hot in the next quarter but just matching the stocks in the index, they aren't trading shares within the fund and that keeps costs lower which means more money for you. 
> 
>   For individual stocks, check into what a DRIP is- (Dividend Re_Investment Plans).  It is the lowest cost way to own individual stocks (each have their own rules on things like minimum purchases and investment requirements).  Basically you buy a dividend paying stock and they take the  dividend payout and instead of sending you a taxable check, they roll the money over into more shares of the stock (usually at zero transaction fee).  I added $5,000 to my account recently and was charged $0.18 (yes, eighteen cents) transaction costs.  Buying shares at say ETrade may cost $7 a pop.


Well I still have about $17,000 left (out of original $40,000) to invest but not sure where to put it. I'd like to at least  turn it into $70,000 by early next year.

I signed up with Scottrade but if etrade is better I could try them.

----------


## Lord Xar

dbl post

----------


## Lord Xar

well, I just checked my 401k -- looks to be down ~7k , well that is great.... I have NEVER gained ~7k within a few days..... but ~7k poof, gone..hmmm. not really liking that.

I think Presence might be right on this...... 

Here is what I have for bond and blended options... any of them look decent to move my stock investments/401k into..
*Name/Inception Date Asset Class Category 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year/LOF* 	*

FID FREEDOM K 2010 (FFKCX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	4.57% 	7.52% 	7.70% 	9.45% 	07/31/2015
FID FREEDOM K 2020 (FFKDX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	5.58% 	8.78% 	8.75% 	10.77% 	07/31/2015
FID FREEDOM K 2030 (FFKEX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	7.11% 	11.16% 	10.31% 	12.34% 	07/31/2015 
FID FREEDOM K 2040 (FFKFX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	7.50% 	12.43% 	11.05% 	13.04% 	07/31/2015 
FID FREEDOM K 2050 (FFKHX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	7.55% 	12.82% 	11.30% 	13.28% 	07/31/2015
FID FREEDOM K INCOME (FFKAX) 07/02/2009 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	2.75% 	4.05% 	4.59% 	5.97% 	07/31/2015 
FID PURITAN (FPURX) 04/16/1947 	Blended Fund Investments* 	N/A 	9.64% 	12.95% 	12.05% 	7.33% 	07/31/2015 
NYL GUAR INT ACCOUNT 01/03/2011 	Bond Investments 	Stable Value 	N/A 	N/A 	N/A 	N/A 		
FA STRAT INCOME A (FSTAX) 10/31/1994 	Bond Investments 	Income 	-0.09% 	2.99% 	4.69% 	5.96% 	07/31/2015
PRU TOTAL RTN BD Q (PTRQX) 01/10/1995 	Bond Investments 	Income 	3.24% 	3.46% 	5.37% 	5.97% 	07/31/2015 
TMPL GLOBAL BOND A (TPINX) 09/18/1986 	Bond Investments 	Income 	-2.59% 	3.05% 	4.10% 	7.65% 	07/31/2015



*Looking those over, these ones didn't take a big hit in 2008, nigh a bump.*
PTRQX [Prudential Total Return Bond Fund Class Q](( took a small hit in 2008 ))
TPINX [Templeton Global Bond Fund Class A](( took a medium hit in 2008 ))

looks like all the other bond investments were created in 2009.

----------


## Lafayette

Moar QE incoming!

----------


## presence

US stocks plummet at open; 
*Dow drops 1000 points*
MarketWatch‎ - 22 mins ago

----------


## Lightweis

Facebook, apple, ford, all great buys this morning.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

> Facebook, apple, ford, all great buys this morning.



Don't touch them.  Moar pain to come.   This will go on for months.

----------


## fatjohn

$#@!ing hate this. Decided to go full bear. Sold a european stock before the european open. The stock opened at it lowest all day. Bought spxu at the same time (futures were only down 2% at that time) got it at the $#@!ing open at 46,41. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

----------


## Lightweis

> Don't touch them.  Moar pain to come.   This will go on for months.


You just missed out on 10 percent burst of profit. Buy the dip sell the rip.

----------


## Lightweis

Call me crazy, I'm looking to buy chinese stocks this week.

----------


## presence

> You just missed out on 10 percent burst of profit. Buy the dip sell the rip.


If you can in and out like that God bless.
I trade, forecast, and recommend retail long term transactions in stocks.

----------


## smokemonsc

> $#@!ing hate this. Decided to go full bear. Sold a european stock before the european open. The stock opened at it lowest all day. Bought spxu at the same time (futures were only down 2% at that time) got it at the $#@!ing open at 46,41. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU


got mine at $32.93 :P

I'm expecting this to be 15-20% correction.  Got the gut feeling about 2 weeks ago.  I'm also expecting QE4 by EOY, err 5, what number we at again?  Does Op Twist count?

----------


## presence

> Call me crazy, I'm looking to buy chinese stocks this week.


Don't touch it till sub 3000; I value Shanghai at 2750 for October.

----------


## Lightweis

> Don't touch it till sub 3000; I value Shanghai at 2750 for October.


You do not see a bounce this week? Turnaround Tuesday or Wednesday?

----------


## dannno

> You do not see a bounce this week? Turnaround Tuesday or Wednesday?


Dead cat bounce?

----------


## Lightweis

> Dead cat bounce?


I think you have to follow the trend. V Shape recovery. I'm a bull. 12 percent correction, time to buy low sell high. Smart money bought at 9:40 am this morning

----------


## Lightweis

> I think you have to follow the trend. V Shape recovery. I'm a bull. 12 percent correction, time to buy low sell high. Smart money bought at 9:40 am this morning


Short the VXX. Looking to buy oil at $34 barrel. Looking for apple to lead the market higher in the next month.

----------


## AuH20

The invisible net...

----------


## DamianTV

> You just missed out on 10 percent burst of profit. Buy the dip sell the rip.


That may work if it is a dip, but if it is a sustained drop, thats not so good for us non investor people.

Buying after a dip is good for a correction to panic reactions as it should in theory help maintain balance, but just like 2008 we have some major bubbles that need to be corrected and drop in value.

Theres a number of us that expect by October, we will have another repeat of 2008.  Just out of curiousity, what do you think Light?  Are we going to head into another Bear Market or will it be Bull Markets all the time?

----------


## jllundqu

EVERYBODY PANIC!!!!!!!!

----------


## Lightweis

> That may work if it is a dip, but if it is a sustained drop, thats not so good for us non investor people.
> 
> Buying after a dip is good for a correction to panic reactions as it should in theory help maintain balance, but just like 2008 we have some major bubbles that need to be corrected and drop in value.
> 
> Theres a number of us that expect by October, we will have another repeat of 2008.  Just out of curiousity, what do you think Light?  Are we going to head into another Bear Market or will it be Bull Markets all the time?


Bull market of all time. Apple is going to take the market higher.

----------


## devil21

> Short the VXX. Looking to buy oil at $34 barrel. Looking for apple to lead the market higher in the next month.


Y'all still playing in this market have brass balls.  Good luck trying to front-run algorithms and PPT moves and not lose your ass in the process.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

Congratulations, presence, on an extremely good call!

Perhaps it helped some of your friends here on RPF, as you said was your wish.  Congratulations again.  Astounding.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> I still have about $17,000 left... I'd like to at least turn it into $70,000 by early next year.


Ummmm....... bad idea.  Can I say that?  Will you listen?  Ahh well, probably not.  So, best of luck!

----------


## brandon

I'm a buy and hold forever investor, but I just so happened to have a large chunk of my net worth out of the stock market for the past couple weeks. Did a 401k rollover that hasn't completed yet, and dipped into the IRA for a home purchase.  Heh I got lucky on this one. Hope to get fully back in later this week.

Presence, in general I think you are a bit nuts, but you called this right somehow, so props my friend.

----------


## puppetmaster

Presence was spot on.  Way to go.  And Zippy proves again he is a fools shill.

----------


## H. E. Panqui

...one wonders where the rickety rackety stock market would be absent stinking, rotten 401-k, 403-b, etc., legislation in favor of the stock shyster$..

...i love asking republicrat stock market babblers to explain what they 'own' when they say they 'own' 'shares of stock'...virtually none of them understand that, in essence, all they really 'own' is a privilege to cast votes for the board of directors...a privilege said republicrat mullets hardly ever exercise!!...

...again, as one brilliant wag puts it:...'they work their holes about illion$ absent an honest understanding of the origin and nature of even one...

----------


## presence

*
GREAT FALL OF CHINA...
BLACK MONDAY RISKS A NEW FINANCIAL CRISIS...
LIVE:  WORLD INDEXES...
EVANS-PRITCHARD: Market Leninism turns dangerous...
Beijing censoring financial chaos on web...
Ghost towns point to nation's waning fortunes...
CRASH PANIC WALLOP:  Dow sees 1,000-point plunge at open...
LIST:  BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROPS... 
Households see $1.8 trillion in wealth vanish...
'Stock up on canned goods and bottled water'...
Latin American Currencies Sink to 22-Year Low...
STARBUCKS CEO Says Market Volatility Won't Affect Growth Plans...
Tells baristas to be nicer because of stock turmoil... 






 
COOK TRIED TO CALM THE PANIC
CHINA URGED TO END MARKET TURMOIL 
 *

----------


## devil21

Rumblings that Tim Cook's timely message to Cramer, released at the same time the markets bounced, violated insider trading laws.

Of course we saw that back in 2008 with the Citi CEO Pandit doing the same thing during a huge sell-off and he was not charged with anything.

----------


## wizardwatson

> _CHINA URGED TO END MARKET TURMOIL_
>   [/B]


Everyone blamed China's currency move as the trigger that caused the sell-off.
Now everyone's saying China's rate cut has triggered the recovery.

Seems like American economy is vassal of China.

----------


## presence

> *Seems like American economy is vassal of China.
> Seems like American economy is vassal of China.
> Seems like American economy is vassal of China.*


..

----------


## wizardwatson

> ..


  Well, I hint at things that to some are obvious.  

But I like what you did there.

----------


## Acala

China has massive problems of its own.

There are some folks who have a pretty good scam going and will walk away with a bundle because of the way they have positioned themselves.  But I don't think ANYONE is really in control.

----------


## Zippyjuan

World stock prices rising today- except in China.  Crash over?  

China only accounts for about one percent of US GDP.

----------


## wizardwatson

> World stock prices rising today- except in China.  Crash over?  
> 
> China only accounts for about one percent of US GDP.


Chinese central bank cut rates.  The junkie known as the global economy got another fix, so calm at the moment.

----------


## dannno

> World stock prices rising today- except in China.  Crash over?  
> 
> China only accounts for about one percent of US GDP.


The crash hasn't even really begun yet.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> Ten percent is considered a "correction". Off it's high, it is now a "correction" (the first time since 2011). 
> 
> Correction has been expected for a while.  Article from June:  http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/04/inve...ction-overdue/


 Oh yeah, sure, everyone knew a correction was coming.  This is very ho-hum, expected; didn't everyone get the memo?

Except for.... *you* did not seem to get the memo.  You did not predict it.  You were arguing against the possibility.  In fact, in this very thread, where presence predicted a stock downturn, you pooh-poohed his prediction as nonsense.

Now you're going to turn around and try to say "Oh yeah, this dip is no big deal; I knew it was coming, everyone knew it was coming."  Right.  Sure you did, Peter.

----------


## fatjohn

Oh noes! The dow lost 16000 in the final trading hour!

Edit: Oh noes! The S&P lost 1900 in the final trading hour!

Edit 2: Oh noes! The S&P goes red in the final trading hour!

Edit 3: Oh noes! The Dow goes red in the final trading hour!

Edit 4: Oh noes! Everything comes CRASHING DOWN INTO THE CLOSE! Ahahaahahaaha.

Edit 5: Oh noes! Nasdaq now negative.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Oh yeah, sure, everyone knew a correction was coming.  This is very ho-hum, expected; didn't everyone get the memo?
> 
> Except for.... *you* did not seem to get the memo.  You did not predict it.  You were arguing against the possibility.  In fact, in this very thread, where presence predicted a stock downturn, you pooh-poohed his prediction as nonsense.
> 
> Now you're going to turn around and try to say "Oh yeah, this dip is no big deal; I knew it was coming, everyone knew it was coming."  Right.  Sure you did, Peter.


I have said I didn't think a crash was a likely scenario.  I never said a correction could not occur. I didn't predict anything.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> I have said I didn't think a crash was a likely scenario.  I never said a correction could not occur. I didn't predict anything.


Oh, my mistake, where did you say a correction was likely?  Where did you say that you expected a correction?

But then _after_ a correction occurs, suddenly it was "expected".  Yeah, expected by, oh let's see: Not You.

----------


## fatjohn

Hey zippy show me a correction with the volatility of the last two days that ended in less than a 15% drop.

----------


## devil21

> Everyone blamed China's currency move as the trigger that caused the sell-off.
> Now everyone's saying China's rate cut has triggered the recovery.
> 
> Seems like American economy is vassal of China.


The yuan has been propping up the dollar for years and Chinese interests now quietly own way more US assets than most people realize.

Anybody still playing in this 'market' is going to lose their ass.

----------


## devil21

15*666* close.  Look out.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Volitility comes from uncertainty. Investors are uncertain what is going on.  They are uncertain what the impact of China slowing will be.  They are uncertain what the Fed will do with interest rates.  Eventually, things will come back to what is really going on now in the economy- and the economy is still growing (though slowly), not collapsing. 

I don't have enough stock market history to be able to answer your question. 

http://time.com/money/4008743/stock-...ion-explained/




> On Monday, the stock market entered what Wall Street pros term a “correction,” a decline of 10% or more from the market’s previous peak, which occurred in May. No one likes to see their portfolio knocked down a peg, but it’s not the end of the world.
> 
> Here are some stats to put recent event into context, and perhaps help you relax a little.
> 
> *It’s been a surprisingly long time since stocks fell by this much*.
> 
> The last time the market dropped at least 10% was in October 2011. That’s *one of the longest stretches of uninterrupted growth since World War II*. So you might say we were due; *typically, there’s a market correction every 18 months*.
> 
> 
> ...

----------


## Madison320

> 15*666* close.  Look out.


The headlines were funny! "All is well again" "Market bounces back" ... "Never mind"

----------


## AuH20

> The headlines were funny! "All is well again" "Market bounces back" ... "Never mind"


And this was all predicated on a rate cut. Imagine what the day would have looked without that front-running?

----------


## jllundqu

> 15*666* close.  Look out.


BOOGITY!  lol

I'd like to hear what folks have to say about home prices.  I'm about to buy a home and want to know if I should pull the trigger now while rates are good, or wait for another real estate bubble to potentially pop and grab a house on the slide.

THoughts?

----------


## AuH20

> BOOGITY!  lol
> 
> I'd like to hear what folks have to say about home prices.  I'm about to buy a home and want to know if I should pull the trigger now while rates are good, or wait for another real estate bubble to potentially pop and grab a house on the slide.
> 
> THoughts?


Housing is distressed right now. Most of the buys are corporate, while emphasizing rental potential.

----------


## jllundqu

> Housing is distressed right now. Most of the buys are corporate, while emphasizing rental potential.


Rents are too damn high.

All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.

----------


## dannno



----------


## puppetmaster

> Rents are too damn high.
> 
> All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.


 I own and I sadly think they are heading down I the near future...

----------


## devil21

> Rents are too damn high.
> 
> All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.


Current deflationary environment would indicate lower prices.

----------


## dannno

> Rents are too damn high.
> 
> All I want to know is if home prices are headed up or down.


There really is no telling what they will do, we don't even know what levers they are going to pull or how hard. 

I imagine housing prices will crash. In response, they may loosen monetary policy. They may *pay you* to take out a home loan. This will act to prop prices back up. So there is a chance you may be able to time a good buy in the next 6 months with low rates.

----------


## Madison320

> Current deflationary environment would indicate lower prices.


It doesn't make sense to me that you can print all that money and have the monetary unit increase in value. It makes more sense to me that certain assets may fall (stocks for example) but prices in general will rise (from a stoppage in QE). I think the inflation analogy of dropping ink in a bucket of water makes sense. Where it first hits the color is really bright but then it spreads out. The really bright color would be assets that inflation hits first, like the stock market. As the inflation spreads the bright spot fades but the rest gets more color. But the initial bright spot will never get totally clear like it started. So at first inflation will cause asset prices to rise and then fall, but to a level higher than before the inflation started. Retail prices on the other hand will slowly rise the whole time. So the Dow for example would never fall back to 8,000 or whatever it was before QE started.

----------


## Acala

> It doesn't make sense to me that you can print all that money and have the monetary unit increase in value. It makes more sense to me that certain assets may fall (stocks for example) but prices in general will rise (from a stoppage in QE). I think the inflation analogy of dropping ink in a bucket of water makes sense. Where it first hits the color is really bright but then it spreads out. The really bright color would be assets that inflation hits first, like the stock market. As the inflation spreads the bright spot fades but the rest gets more color. But the initial bright spot will never get totally clear like it started. So at first inflation will cause asset prices to rise and then fall, but to a level higher than before the inflation started. Retail prices on the other hand will slowly rise the whole time. So the Dow for example would never fall back to 8,000 or whatever it was before QE started.


I think you have to keep in mind where and how the new money is entering the market.  Housing is one of the major points of entry for new credit money to enter the market and this is why housing price inflation has usually exceeded general price increases.  But it only happens if people are borrowing that money and using it to buy houses.  If the housing market is stagnant, the inflationary effect won't hit there.  You can't MAKE people buy houses.

----------


## Madison320

> And this was all predicated on a rate cut. Imagine what the day would have looked without that front-running?


I'm surprised we haven't heard from the Fed yet. Maybe the big banks are still in pretty good shape. My theory is that the Fed doesn't really give a crap about inflation or the unemployment rate or the economy in general. What they really care about are the banks. At least that's my guess. If the banks start to fail the Fed will launch QE4. Of course if the economy in general starts to tank so will the banks eventually. I'm guessing a crashing stock market is hurting the banks as well.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Fed meeting isn't until middle of September.  They probably won't say anything before then.

----------


## devil21

> I think you have to keep in mind where and how the new money is entering the market.  Housing is one of the major points of entry for new credit money to enter the market and this is why housing price inflation has usually exceeded general price increases.  But it only happens if people are borrowing that money and using it to buy houses.  If the housing market is stagnant, the inflationary effect won't hit there.  You can't MAKE people buy houses.


Major changes to house closing rules/regulations take effect on Oct 1, also.  A friend in the mortgage underwriting department at a large bank stated that people in her department are "really nervous" about the changes.  Good chance a large number of pending mortgages slated to close on or around Oct 1 are halted at that time.

eta:  A lot of purchasers state their 401k as reserve funds, as part of mortgage approval process.  Those reserves are disappearing by the day, thus potentially causing disruptions to the required final reviews by the lender before closings are completed.  Another change effective Oct 1 is that a change in the mortgage rate itself can halt a closing.  If the Fed raises rates, that would materially change the mortgage rate.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> BOOGITY!  lol
> 
> I'd like to hear what folks have to say about home prices.  I'm about to buy a home and want to know if I should pull the trigger now while rates are good, or wait for another real estate bubble to potentially pop and grab a house on the slide.
> 
> Thoughts?


 I would recommend thinking about the home as a home, not an investment, and buying it as such.  As a consumer good.  Just as you buy, or do not buy, a computer or a car based on considerations of what will make your life better, so it would be wise to do so with a home.  

Buy or do not buy based on things like:
What benefits it will provide you?  How much will you love those benefits?
How much better it will make your life?
Can you afford it?  This is a very large purchase (people, amazingly, often don't think of buying a home in that way, but it is!).  Do you have the money for it?  And don't count on being able to sell it for the same or more as you bought it for -- you may not be able to.  It should be worth it to you in and of itself, even if its market price plummets.
Is there anything else you could do with the money that you would enjoy even more than owning the house?

That's my advice.  The rates, the bubbles, these may not be the most important things to think about at all, in my opinion.  When buying a laptop, I don't worry about the laptop market, whether it will go up or down, the prospects for selling it in ten years, whether there's a bubble in solid-state memory, etc.  All that stuff is irrelevant.  But, you may say, this is a much larger purchase!  I can't afford to sink that much money into it unless I'm going to get it back and then some.  In that case, I would say that it's too big a purchase for you to be financially responsibly considering.  For that matter, this is more extreme but my personal feeling is that if you have to go into debt to buy it, you usually shouldn't do it.  And so in that case rates are really irrelevant: you just pay cash.  But you're probably not going to listen to that; nobody wants to hear that (for the most part).

Short version: buy it for you, don't buy it as an attempt to make money.

----------


## Zippyjuan

My home is part of my retirement plan.  Not as an income source but by having it paid off (and it is), lowering my expenses- the amount of money I will need to live off of. Lower expenses are equivalent to having a lot more money saved. It effectively gave me a 30% after-taxes raise since I no longer need to earn that much money to make the payments.

----------


## John X

> ...i love asking republicrat stock market babblers to explain what they 'own' when they say they 'own' 'shares of stock'...virtually none of them understand that, in essence, all they really 'own' is a privilege to cast votes for the board of directors...a privilege said republicrat mullets hardly ever exercise!!...


No....the main thing they own is a share of the profits in terms of dividends and a share of any assets (land, intellectual property , cash etc) owned by the company.  The ability to elect the board of directors is not at all a major source of the value of a stock.

----------


## RonPaulIsGreat



----------


## presence

http://www.tradermike.net/inverse-sh...ish-etf-funds/




> *List of Inverse ETFs (Short ETFs / Bear ETFs)*
> 
> 
>       After some research I thought recently that I may want to place some bearish bets in my IRA through OptionsHouse.  *Inverse ETFs*  (exchange traded funds) are a good way to do that so I wanted to make  sure I had a list of short ETFs at my fingertips when and if the need  ever arose.  So the following etf list is just for my possible future  reference.  Please let me know if I’ve missed any ETFs (you can also  find a list of Ultra Long ETFs (Bullish ETFs)):
> *Short (1x), UltraShort (2x), UltraPro (3x) MarketCap ETFs:*
> 
> ETF Name
> Ticker
> Benchmark Index
> ...

----------


## presence

*3X Inverse Leverage 

SPXU* (-3*S&P)*
SDOW* (-3*DOW)*
SQQQ* (-3*NASDAQ)



1 month vs 5 year charts:







That's a *GREEN DRAGON* cross in my book.

----------


## presence

_An inverse exchange-traded fund is an exchange-traded fund (ETF), traded on a public stock market, which is designed to perform as the inverse of whatever index or benchmark it is designed to track._


If you have access to stocks... you should have access to inverse ETF's.   You would buy something like SPXU (3x leveraged short ETF of S&P small cap 600) the same way you would buy AMZN (Amazon.com).


_do not require the investor to hold a margin account as would be the case for investors looking to enter into short position_s. 


*Taking Control*

_In some  cases, employers choose  401(k) plans for their employees that offer the  option of choosing  individual stocks. However, this may only apply to a  set percentage of  the funds in the plan. The plan may still require  employees to  diversify or invest in more than one stock, thus limiting  how much they  can put into a single company's stock. If your employer  offers a  401(k) with this high degree of employee control, you will take  on  added responsibility for your retirement income if you choose to   exercise it._

*Alternatives for Retirement*

_Even  if you don't  have a 401(k) that allows you to invest in individual  stocks of your  choosing, you can still put money into a company as a  means of saving  for retirement. IRAs, or individual retirement accounts,  are personal  retirement plans that offer more control, including the  choice of  stocks. You can fund an IRA with pre-tax income, up to a set  annual  limit that depends on your age. You can also buy shares of stock  that  you earmark for retirement, eliminating the tax benefits of a   retirement plan but also working around the limitations of IRAs and   401(k)s._

----------


## Acala

> My home is part of my retirement plan.  Not as an income source but by having it paid off (and it is), lowering my expenses- the amount of money I will need to live off of. Lower expenses are equivalent to having a lot more money saved. It effectively gave me a 30% after-taxes raise since I no longer need to earn that much money to make the payments.


Too bad you don't own it.  You rent it from the government.  Stop paying the rent, called property tax, and you will be evicted.  And, aside from a few limitations (like Prop 13 in California) the government can raise your rent as much and as often as it likes.  And it is actually worse than renting from a landlord because when a landlord raises your rent, you can just pick up and move because you have no equity in the property.  To avoid higher property taxes, you have to sell your property (and hope the market is high) and leave the country or even the state.

----------


## Acala

> No....the main thing they own is a share of the profits in terms of dividends and a share of any assets (land, intellectual property , cash etc) owned by the company.  The ability to elect the board of directors is not at all a major source of the value of a stock.


I recall reading that during the Weimar hyperinflation in Germany, those who owned and held on to stock in solid businesses (and didn't try to "play" the volatile market) ended up doing okay because after all the smoke cleared and the currency changed they still owned a share of a sound business.  The collapse of the currency didn't matter as long as the business survived.  So the long term strategy for holding stock would be to buy stock in solid businesses and hold on, ignoring the share price, even ignoring currency collapse.

----------


## Madison320

> I recall reading that during the Weimar hyperinflation in Germany, those who owned and held on to stock in solid businesses (and didn't try to "play" the volatile market) ended up doing okay because after all the smoke cleared and the currency changed they still owned a share of a sound business.  The collapse of the currency didn't matter as long as the business survived.  So the long term strategy for holding stock would be to buy stock in solid businesses and hold on, ignoring the share price, even ignoring currency collapse.


That's a good point. I think that's another advantage to buying shares "directly" vs owing a mutual fund. If the $#@! hits the fan it seems like it would be a lot easier to sort things out if you simply own shares in one company vs owning hundreds of companies indirectly in a mutual fund.

----------


## Madison320

It looks like we got the first shot from the Fed. The Fed's Dudley just said, "the case for a september rate hike is less compelling". Maybe this will hold off the markets for a few weeks.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> I recall reading that during the Weimar hyperinflation in Germany, those who owned and held on to stock in solid businesses (and didn't try to "play" the volatile market) ended up doing okay because after all the smoke cleared and the currency changed they still owned a share of a sound business.  The collapse of the currency didn't matter as long as the business survived.  So the long term strategy for holding stock would be to buy stock in solid businesses and hold on, ignoring the share price, even ignoring currency collapse.


There was extreme volatility.  As in super, super extreme.  But yes, if someone actually held through the overwhelming 90-some% losses, for years, eventually it did actually go up again and all work out in the end, kind of, in theory.

Here's the chart:



The chart, unfortunately, doesn't adequately convey the chaos, the sheer craziness of the volatility during those few years, due to being such a long hundred year timescale on the X axis (so it looks like just a small blip of noise) and also the large logarithmic Y scale softens the appearance.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but suffice it to say that if you think the last few days of the US stock market were a roller coaster, it was laying in the grass in a peaceful meadow compared to the Weimar hyperinflation Germany stock market.

So, it all worked out in the end, eventually, as long as you waited for decades, and weren't a Jew or a gypsy or a rebel, but it's not inevitable that it work out like that every time.

Austria was much worse:



And honestly, neither of them were very good, relatively speaking.  Here's the USA for perspective and comparison:



Log scale, remember.  Big difference between 1,200 and 2.  So just remember that's the context we're working in if it seems inevitable to you that the stock market is going to always go up.  The USA has had an incredible run.  A *unique* run.  Unprecedented in history.  Will it continue?  Maybe.  I sure hope so!  But also maybe not.

And things don't always work out as well even as Austria, as bad as it was, which despite two disastrous defeats in colossal wars was a civilized nation with an advanced culture and high respect for private property.  And so investors didn't lose everything.  At least, not all of them did.  Sometimes, things work out more like, say, this:

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Too bad you don't own it.  You rent it from the government.  Stop paying the rent, called property tax, and you will be evicted.  And, aside from a few limitations (like Prop 13 in California) the government can raise your rent as much and as often as it likes.  And it is actually worse than renting from a landlord because when a landlord raises your rent, you can just pick up and move because you have no equity in the property.  To avoid higher property taxes, you have to sell your property (and hope the market is high) and leave the country or even the state.


Rent a home and face the same possible increases and costs.  You pay property taxes as part of your rent. Stop paying rent and get evicted.  Right now my costs are about $1000 a month less than if I was renting a comparable unit.  And I have an asset worth about $300k I can sell if necessary in the future and get back more than I put into the mortgage.  You can't do that with a rental. When you rent, you give that money away each month and get absolutely nothing for it.  I got an asset worth a lot of money as well as an increase in disposable income for money which could have simply gone to renting.  Way better than getting zero.  Yes, if you rent, you have nothing to lose if you move.  But if you stay, you gained nothing while I gained a lot.  

(yes, I am in CA where property tax increases are severely limited- maximum 2%- until you resell your home).

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> When you rent, you give that money away each month and get absolutely nothing for it.


You get:

A place to live
Worry-free maintenance
Immunity to housing market risk
Extreme flexibility
Probably indoor plumbing, full-house wiring, and complete climate control

You might also get: 

Great surroundings
Nice neighbors
A beautiful view
Low crime
Ability to walk to work
Big kitchen
Exquisite floorplan
Vegetable garden
A lawn that you don't have to mow

Etc.

Doesn't sound like "absolutely nothing" to me.

Buying a house can be a good decision (I've certainly done it enough), but renting can also be a good decision.  Saying that a renter gets absolutely nothing for his money is just pro-home-ownership propaganda that you're mindlessly parroting. It bears no relationship to reality and has no value in good decision-making.

Every man should do what's right for him.  Jllundqu should do what's right for _him_.  And it's exceedingly unlikely that he's going to listen to either of us anyway.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

This means there's some opportunities out there no?

----------


## Traditionalist

Stocks rebounded. Asian market has been looking bit better lately too.

----------


## Acala

> There was extreme volatility.  As in super, super extreme.  But yes, if someone actually held through the overwhelming 90-some% losses, for years, eventually it did actually go up again and all work out in the end, kind of, in theory.
> 
> Here's the chart:
> 
> 
> 
> The chart, unfortunately, doesn't adequately convey the chaos, the sheer craziness of the volatility during those few years, due to being such a long hundred year timescale on the X axis (so it looks like just a small blip of noise) and also the large logarithmic Y scale softens the appearance.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but suffice it to say that if you think the last few days of the US stock market were a roller coaster, it was laying in the grass in a peaceful meadow compared to the Weimar hyperinflation Germany stock market.
> 
> So, it all worked out in the end, eventually, as long as you waited for decades, and weren't a Jew or a gypsy or a rebel, but it's not inevitable that it work out like that every time.
> ...


If I am reading your chart correctly Germans who held equities during the Weimar inflation and the global depression broke even after 15 years.  Did I miss something?  If not, that's a pretty damn good result after a total currency collapse followed by a major depression.  WWII, on the other hand, not so much.  But killing most of the working age men and destroying most of the industrial capacity will do that.

----------


## Acala

> And I have an asset worth about $300k I can sell if necessary in the future and get back more than I put into the mortgage.


Not exactly.  You have an asset worth exactly as much as somebody is actually willing to  pay you for it on the day you need to sell it.  There are an awful lot of people walking around today that would counsel you from their own hard experience against counting those chickens before they hatch.  And just remember, the State of California is going to get revenue from SOMEWHERE.  Just might be from you!

----------


## Madison320

> Stocks rebounded. Asian market has been looking bit better lately too.


I think it was the Fed comments that they were less likely to raise rates in September.

----------


## wizardwatson

Monday 8/24/15 = Worst day since 2011
Wednesday 8/26/15 = Best day since 2011

----------


## Acala

> Monday 8/24/15 = Worst day since 2011
> Wednesday 8/26/15 = Best day since 2011


Short term trading takes a man with more brass in his bag than I have.

----------


## devil21

Biggest one day upward bounce since....November 2008, according to CNBC puppet.  Yay?  

I think everyone knew a bounce was coming this week sometime but trying to predict it is foolish.  Just enjoying watching the drama...

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> If I am reading your chart correctly Germans who held equities during the Weimar inflation and the global depression broke even after 15 years.  Did I miss something?


 Nope, you got it, that's pretty much it.  Of course, that's glossing over all the years of -80%, then -20%, then +50%, -60% again, etc.  I have a book with more exact figures; just making those up, but it gives you the idea.  Stocks were actually a pretty good thing to have during the Weimer hyperinflation, relatively speaking.  At least they didn't lose all value.  Farmers were the ones who really made out well.  But stocks were OK... for those few who had the stomach to ride the roller coaster.

The reality is, though, that very few did -- that's why it was so volatile!  If everyone were just buy-and-hold investors, the lines would just chug along fairly horizontally and smoothly.  Instead, what really happened in Germany is people would panic, pull everything out, then maybe a couple years later realize that all other investments were even worse and put it in again, then the price drops 25% and they pull out again before they lose more... etc., etc.  Very few actually have the discipline and midset to "buy the dips" as angelatc recommended.  Our human nature and psychology works against us.  So the real life on-the-ground reality in Germany 1920-1944 was that the average stock investor did not do very well.  Plus you have to subtract broker's fees, which back then were much higher.  Plus, consider that index funds did not exist back then either, and so there was no way to get the actual performance of the blue line.  You would buy several stocks, maybe many but then the brokerage fees add up, and then depending on your luck you'd either do better or worse, and just cross your fingers that none of the companies you own go bankrupt!

But even with all those disclaimers, it really is, as you say, not bad performance at all for a country that experienced a total currency collapse.  Not bad at all.

The problem is you never know what it will be like next time, what it will be like if it happens to your country.  That was my main point.  Be prepared for anything, that's my motto.  And it's possible to be prepared and get good returns, too, in my opinion.

----------


## wizardwatson

> Biggest one day upward bounce since....November 2008, according to CNBC puppet.  Yay?  
> 
> I think everyone knew a bounce was coming this week sometime but trying to predict it is foolish.  Just enjoying watching the drama...


It was funny, after todays close saw an article how the major point gain was a "sign of stability" and that "market fundamentals outweigh investor jitters".  LOL.  I think it's only wise to assume that talk is propaganda.  It's like saying that a guy who kills his entire family in rage is crazy, but then when he breaks down and cries, "Oh, that's a sign of stability".  No.   That's an EVEN GREATER SIGN of instability.  "Down or up" would indicate a fundamental based market.  Jerking around like a drowning man is not a sign of stability.

Anyway, don't be fooled.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...es-of-momentum




> This is exactly the type of market behavior that we would expect to see during the early stages of a major financial crisis.  In every major market downturn throughout history there were big ups, big downs and giant waves of momentum, and this time around will not be any different. 
> 
> ...
> 
> At one point on Tuesday, the Dow was up over 400 points, and many of the talking heads on television were proclaiming that the stock market had “recovered”.  This is something that I predicted would happen yesterday…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Not exactly.  You have an asset worth exactly as much as somebody is actually willing to  pay you for it on the day you need to sell it.  There are an awful lot of people walking around today that would counsel you from their own hard experience against counting those chickens before they hatch.  And just remember, the State of California is going to get revenue from SOMEWHERE.  Just might be from you!


You are making excuses for why you haven't purchased anything.  What benefits have you gotten for the years and hundreds of thousands of dollars paying rent you have spent?  Other than a roof over your head?  Maybe you aren't comfortable with the idea.  That is fine.  It has worked out extremely well for me.   I got a roof over my head and a significant pay raise (equivalent- or you could call it an 80% rent reduction).

----------


## Zippyjuan

> _An inverse exchange-traded fund is an exchange-traded fund (ETF), traded on a public stock market, which is designed to perform as the inverse of whatever index or benchmark it is designed to track._
> 
> 
> If you have access to stocks... you should have access to inverse ETF's.   You would buy something like SPXU (*3x leveraged short ETF* of S&P small cap 600) the same way you would buy AMZN (Amazon.com).
> 
> 
> _do not require the investor to hold a margin account as would be the case for investors looking to enter into short position_s. 
> 
> 
> ...


3x leverage can also triple your losses when the market bounced back. If you bought SPXU a week ago, you are about breaking even with the bounce.  If you bought a year ago, you have lost 16%. Inverse ETFs work only when stocks are falling. 

As of this moment, DOW has gained about 1000 points between yesterday and so far today.

----------


## fatjohn

NYSE suffers cosmetic problem on floor data screens!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/nyse-...a-screens.html

Read a deliberate manipulation after the dow hit an intraday high of 16666!

This is being manipulated! Two days ago the market closed at 15666, seven years ago the S&P bottomed at 666.
On the day where the dow closed down 777 points, the opening bell did not ring.

Shemitah stuff. Freaky.

Or maybe I watched this for too long and should take my aluhat off...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rkELgi6EkNo

----------


## jllundqu



----------


## Dforkus

> 3x leverage can also triple your losses when the market bounced back. If you bought SPXU a week ago, you are about breaking even with the bounce.  If you bought a year ago, you have lost 16%. Inverse ETFs work only when stocks are falling. 
> 
> As of this moment, DOW has gained about 1000 points between yesterday and so far today.


Levered etfs  are absolutely toxic to the long term of a portfolio...
A suckers bet, invented to take the money of folks who think they are a lot smarter than they actually are...

And this applies to the up ones as much as the down ones..

----------


## devil21

> 


Sounds about right, except he's only a mouthpiece for the same global banking families that will maintain control of the system after the reset.  Shell game, iow.

----------


## presence

> Levered etfs  are absolutely toxic to the long term of a portfolio...
> A suckers bet, invented to take the money of folks who think they are a lot smarter than they actually are...
> 
> *And this applies to the up ones as much as the down ones.*.





What are you even talking about?   QQQ is up 2X over the past 5 years on steady climb; all it does is track the Nasdaq X3.   Honestly I think some people are scared of financial instruments as if they were poltergeist.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What are you even talking about?   QQQ is up 2X over the past 5 years on steady climb; all it does is track the Nasdaq X3.   Honestly I think some people are scared of financial instruments as if they were poltergeist.


That is not an inverse ETF fund which is what I was discussing (and you were suggesting earlier). Yes- there are ETFs which have performed well.  Inverse ETF funds are toxic and highly dangerous to your portfolio.  At this moment, SPUX- which you recommended- is $37 a share.  Since July, 2010, it has lost *98%* of its value!!!



http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spxu/st...&drilldown=off

Short QQQ has gone from $1300 a share in 2010 to $24 a share today.  http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SQQQ+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowCh  artStacking":true}

Short Dow 30 has done better- "only" falling from $80 a share to $24 a share in that time. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=dog+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowCha  rtStacking":true}

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> Inverse ETF funds are toxic and highly dangerous to your portfolio.


 Enh, you just say that because you think the thing they're inverting is bound to always go up.

How about an inverse fund of gold?  What would you say to _that_, Zippy?






> At this moment, SPUX- which you recommended- is $37 a share.  Since July, 2010, it has lost *98%* of its value!!!


  Great.  But he wasn't recommending it in July, 2010, now was he?  And duh -- the stock market has gone up during that time.  As an inverse stock market fund, it was doing its job.

Sigh.
Where has all the IQ gone,
Long time passing,....

----------


## Zippyjuan

I want to see long term performance.  Not just one week.  I know you don't own any stocks or funds for just one week either.  Between August 18 and August 24th it made money. Half of those gains are already gone unless you sold on the 24th. 

Sigh.
Where has all the IQ gone,
Long time passing,....

----------


## presence

I'm a patient man.  To simply the hypothesis ;D the theme here of #GTFOSTOCKMARKET is:

 Minimum 30% down from the May high before we see the May high again.   
Anticipated time line 6 - 18 months from 8/5/15


All US EURO major index inverse ETFs 6-18 months of wild blue moon rising.

----------


## Dforkus

> Enh, you just say that because you think the thing they're inverting is bound to always go up.
> 
> How about an inverse fund of gold?  What would you say to _that_, Zippy?
> 
> 
> 
>   Great.  But he wasn't recommending it in July, 2010, now was he?  And duh -- the stock market has gone up during that time.  As an inverse stock market fund, it was doing its job.
> 
> Sigh.
> ...


Also, all that 3x magic leverage is not free, those funds are exhorbantly expensive for what they are...

Everybody is always looking for that can of magic beans... In the financial world they only exist in the minds of poor simpletons who paradoxically believe they know everything...

----------


## Zippyjuan

> I'm a patient man.  To simply the hypothesis ;D the theme here of #GTFOSTOCKMARKET is:
> 
>  Minimum 30% down from the May high before we see the May high again.   
> Anticipated time line 6 - 18 months from 8/5/15
> 
> 
> All US EURO major index inverse ETFs 6-18 months of wild blue moon rising.


Dow was 18,300 in May.  30% off would mean Dow 12,810. Six to 18 months from May or from today? (we are already about five months past then).

----------


## presence

> Dow was 18,300 in May.  30% off would mean Dow 12,810. Six to 18 months from May or from today? (we are already about five months past then).


from 8/5/15 when I started this thread
12800 sounds about right

----------


## Zippyjuan

We shall see. Do you want to start with the DOW of August 5th then?  17,540?   That would be DOW 12,300?  Not that I think the difference will matter.  But it is your pick so your choice.

----------


## presence

> Presence, Dianne, devil21:  Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?






phase 1 complete

----------


## presence

> We shall see. Do you want to start with the DOW of August 5th then?  17,540?   That would be DOW 12,300?  Not that I think the difference will matter.  But it is your pick so your choice.


lets not get lost in the details:

*a year of doom and a 1/3 value gone*

You'll know it when you see it.

----------


## presence



----------


## thoughtomator

here we go again

that old adage "Sell in May then go away" apparently really works

----------


## rg17

The Dow has hit -400 points!

----------


## Madison320

I wonder how much revenue the government loses when the markets go down. They lose capital gains tax among other things.

----------


## puppetmaster

Call me  crazy but I think k the DOW ends close to even.......just a guess though

----------


## kfarnan

> Call me  crazy but I think k the DOW ends close to even.......just a guess though


Per what analysis?  Everything I see shows the markets crashing more.

----------


## Madison320

> Call me  crazy but I think k the DOW ends close to even.......just a guess though


The way things are going lately you have to wait until the final minute now to see how the day ends up.

----------


## kfarnan

Some traders are going long on the S&P.  Are they delusional?

----------


## ILUVRP

a guy on cnbc said this morning that mutual funds have very little cash , with the market taking a dump many people will be cashing out of the funds , the funds will have to sell stocks to settle the cash  out to the people .

this will create more selling , the guy said the selling would take place tomorrow as the funds won't know how much money the people dumping the funds would need .

sounds like normal business to me . this thing could get very nasty .

----------


## devil21

Welcome to September.

----------


## puppetmaster

> Per what analysis?  Everything I see shows the markets crashing more.


  the  crazy index......I was just guessing and I guessed wrong.

----------


## angelatc

> Welcome to September.


It's October that is usually rocky.

----------


## angelatc

> the  crazy index......I was just guessing and I guessed wrong.


Half of all investors do

----------


## puppetmaster

My buddy made 60k last week on the vix. Then he gambled half away on dice.

----------


## presence



----------


## helmuth_hubener

> a guy on cnbc said this morning that mutual funds have very little cash , with the market taking a dump many people will be cashing out of the funds , the funds will have to sell stocks to settle the cash  out to the people .


Of course they have very little cash -- that's how they're designed.  That's what you want them to have -- as little as possible!  It's all in the prospecti.  At least the passively-managed funds are like this -- actively-managed will move out of stocks into cash whenever the manager feels like stocks are going to go down and gets nervous.

Having only a small percentage of cash doesn't cause any problem for the funds.  It just means that they have to, just as the TV guru apparently said: "sell stocks to settle the cash out to the people."  That is not a problem.  When people buy mutual funds, the fund must buy stocks (or whatever assets the fund is all about).  When people sell mutual funds, the fund must sell stocks (or whatever assets the fund is all about).  That's how it _always_ works: nothing special about right now.

----------


## devil21

> It's October that is usually rocky.


This isn't the usual September or October.




> My buddy made 60k last week on the vix. Then he gambled half away on dice.


He should have just put his 60k into physical metals.  Greed isn't a good thing, regardless of what Gordon Gecko says.

----------


## LibForestPaul

> Sounds about right, except he's only a mouthpiece for the same global banking families that will maintain control of the system after the reset.  Shell game, iow.


Are you sure all the families are the same. I have a hunch there is much power plays occurring. China at the low end since they have little control over their local government...massive corruption.

I would say United States is at the top, and the families in power in the five eyes. Their farms are tightly controlled and manipulated, with the people willingly obeying.

----------


## John X

> Enh, you just say that because you think the thing they're inverting is bound to always go up.
> 
> How about an inverse fund of gold?  What would you say to _that_, Zippy?


No, he're pretty much correct.  Inverse ETFs generate a ton of costs that regular ETFs don't because they have to use leverage, futures contracts, derivatives etc to generate returns close to the inverse on short time scales.  I don't think holding inverse ETFs long term, regardless of whether its stocks or gold, makes sense for pretty much all retail investors.

----------


## devil21

> Are you sure all the families are the same. I have a hunch there is much power plays occurring. China at the low end since they have little control over their local government...massive corruption.
> 
> I would say United States is at the top, and the families in power in the five eyes. Their farms are tightly controlled and manipulated, with the people willingly obeying.


Does it really matter if the families are all the same?  The power isn't returned to the people regardless.  It's the same game as the Republican/Democrat paradigm just on a much larger scale.

eta:  I'm familiar with the families but is liberty really anything more than just another gimmick if a top-down approach is always taken?  Like Ron said, liberty is a new idea.

----------


## DFF

The S&P has fallen quite a bit since May of this year but the bull market starting in March of 2009 is still intact.

So this recent bearish activity could wind up just being a healthy correction rather than a full-on crash.

----------


## ILUVRP

> The S&P has fallen quite a bit since May of this year but the bull market starting in March of 2009 is still intact.
> 
> So this recent bearish activity could wind up just being a healthy correction rather than a full-on crash.


only if the fed keeps pumping out free money .

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> No, he're pretty much correct.  Inverse ETFs generate a ton of costs that regular ETFs don't because they have to use leverage, futures contracts, derivatives etc to generate returns close to the inverse on short time scales.  I don't think holding inverse ETFs long term, regardless of whether its stocks or gold, makes sense for pretty much all retail investors.


I agree, John X, but our perspectives are different from that of my friend presence.  He is a trader, attempting to beat the market.  He believes he _can_ beat the market, and he is using "technical analysis" to do it.  As for me, and probably you, I do not think that he can reliably do this feat, because I do not think anyone can.  He may or may not have done it in the past (I have no way of knowing that, and he is certainly not going to release past performance numbers that would make him look bad) and he may or my not do it in the future, but the point is I wouldn't bet my precious money on it.  I can't count on it.

But in this particular instance, if I _had_ counted on it, on presence's prognosticating prowess, I would have come out ahead.  At least so far.  Half of making money speculating is selling at the right time, and presence does not recommend selling yet.  But so far, reality has, for whatever reason, cooperated and backed up his bold call.

So, a congratulations is in order.

Then in comes Zippyjuan and wisely and brilliantly explains how SPXU or whatever has gone down since 2010.  And so that's supposed to somehow reflect badly on presence?  Earth to Obvious, come in Obvious: he wasn't recommending it in 2010!  From the time he _did_ recommend it until now, it is up.  That's the bottom line.

But again, _I_ did not recommend it, and I would not recommend it.  I have a completely different investment philosophy.

But credit is due where credit is due.  This thread is a unicorn, a pink four-leaf clover; you could subscribe to a hundred investment guru newsletters and you still might never again in your lifetime see a prediction that actually came true like this.  So congratulations to presence.

----------


## presence

> But credit is due where credit is due.  This thread is a unicorn, a pink four-leaf clover; you could subscribe to a hundred investment guru newsletters and you still might never again in your lifetime see a prediction that actually came true like this.  So congratulations to presence.



Thanks helmuth

----------


## kfarnan

All my information said, this is the start of a cyclical bear market.  Not sure now.  Are we in a clear bull market.?

----------


## Madison320

I have a feeling Friday is going to be the definition of a good news=bad news or bad news=good news kind of day after the jobs report.

If we get a number in the high 200s, stocks are going to tank. Under 200 and stocks will take off.

----------


## devil21

> All my information said, this is the start of a cyclical bear market.  Not sure now.  Are we in a clear bull market.?


Don't worry, your information is correct.  What's about to happen to the markets isn't based in charts or logic.  After Labor Day, buckle in bro.

----------


## wizardwatson

> Don't worry, your information is correct.  What's about to happen to the markets isn't based in charts or logic.  After Labor Day, buckle in bro.


Ok, why after Labor Day?

----------


## devil21

> Ok, why after Labor Day?


The Footsteps of St. Paul will have been traced.

----------


## wizardwatson

> The Footsteps of St. Paul will have been traced.


Are you talking about the pilgrimage to Greece?  Would love the details.

I'm also not really too keen on the fault slipping from market forces.  There are too many other things at play.

Even in this thread there was discussion of the Shemitah.  And in that context (just like the 2001 market collapse) world events might be the driving force behind a market anomaly.

Now whether it's an earthquake, or a nuke going off somewhere, either planned by man or not, or simply a crazy combination of market forces, doesn't change that signs are coming from multiple directions about an event.

In any event the moral of the story is "pay attention".

----------


## devil21

> Are you talking about the pilgrimage to Greece?  Would love the details.
> 
> I'm also not really too keen on the fault slipping from market forces.  There are too many other things at play.
> 
> Even in this thread there was discussion of the Shemitah.  And in that context (just like the 2001 market collapse) world events might be the driving force behind a market anomaly.
> 
> Now whether it's an earthquake, or a nuke going off somewhere, either planned by man or not, or simply a crazy combination of market forces, doesn't change that signs are coming from multiple directions about an event.
> 
> In any event the moral of the story is "pay attention".


For sure there are a lot of moving pieces at work, not just one single piece (though remember this is the econ subforum so that is the focus of discussion here).  No large long-term plan is without large long-term coordination between many pieces.  The religious calendars, the end of the global bankruptcy reorg, foreign policy moves, domestic policy moves, etc.  Indeed, do pay attention.

----------


## oyarde

Well , by today , figured , made back 3 % back of the 10 % I lost from 8/01 to 9/01.So I cashed out 50 % of everything I had in every market , all the checks should arrive , oh , 2 or three weeks from tomorrow , my guess . I was hoping to have it all wrapped up and semi retire by Labor Day , but waited until I got a little back .Guess I will go ahead and collect my Christmas bonus and vacation now and shoot for Jan or Feb .I quit smoking in June , so, hopefully, I do not outlive my beer savings .Wish me luck !

----------


## devil21

> These two charts show that gold is not really a commodity.


Ben let that slip a few years ago when he told Ron that gold is an _asset_.  He didn't say it's a _commodity_.

----------


## Madison320

> I have a feeling Friday is going to be the definition of a good news=bad news or bad news=good news kind of day after the jobs report.
> 
> If we get a number in the high 200s, stocks are going to tank. Under 200 and stocks will take off.


I missed that one, we got bad news and stocks fell. That's why I'm not a day trader!

----------


## DFF

> All my information said, this is the start of a cyclical bear market.  Not sure now.  Are we in a clear bull market.?



Watch the 55 week and 200 week moving averages. When we close under the 200 (which hasn't happened yet) then we've most likely transitioned into a bear market.

----------


## DFF

> Don't worry, your information is correct.  What's about to happen to the markets isn't based in charts or logic.  After Labor Day, buckle in bro.


You maybe right. 

The DOW is carving out a bear flag (opposite of a bull flag). With a flagpole length of ~2000 points. So if this sucker plays out, then we could be going to 13k - or more.

----------


## Madison320

> You maybe right. 
> 
> The DOW is carving out a bear flag (opposite of a bull flag). With a flagpole length of ~2000 points. So if this sucker plays out, then we could be going to 13k - or more.


I doubt it will go that low without Fed intervention. I'm surprised they've stayed out this long. If the DOW keeps falling my guess is the Fed will definitively call off any rate hikes for this year.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Jobs report was neither bad nor strong.  It did come in below expectations so stocks fell again despite the unemployment rate falling from 5.3% in July to 5.1%.  New jobs totaled 173,000 but expectations were 220,000 new jobs added.  But since June and July figures were raised by 44,000, adding those to the August figure and you are pretty close to expectations. Labor force participation remained the exact same for the third straight month.  Average hourly earnings rose slightly.  

With only 69.9% of businesses reporting numbers so far, (compared to the usual 79.9%), the figures will likely be revised in the coming months.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/bu...ates.html?_r=0

For the week, the DOW lost about three percent.

----------


## fatjohn

So shmitah ends the day after tomorrow. Shouldnt there be a bit of pressure on the markets today?

----------


## wizardwatson

> So shmitah ends the day after tomorrow. Shouldnt there be a bit of pressure on the markets today?


Well, don't get your hopes too high.  Really the "Shemitah" phenomenon is a cluster of dates around September.

Elul 29th (debt release day) starts Saturday at sunset, and ends Sunday at sunset (partial solar eclipse sunday).  But then there's the Feast of Trumpets (Sept 14th), the big date really of Yom Kippur on Sept 23rd that even seculars are obsessed with, then the Feast of Tabernacles on Sept 28th coinciding with the last of four "blood moon" lunar eclipses.

The jubilee year that starts September 23rd and ends next year on October 2nd is a time to watch all year.  That's sort of my cutoff point for judging whether these many correlations are just a mirage.

Could be the end of the world.  The Cubs may make it into the playoffs, that alone gives creedence to the the end of days.

----------


## jllundqu

So we are to wait until Oct. 2 before we call BS on the whole Shemitah thing?

----------


## dannno

> So we are to wait until Oct. 2 before we call BS on the whole Shemitah thing?


Oct. 2, 2016 according to the post, but I'm guessing we will see some fireworks this month and next month.

----------


## fatjohn

So dow made new post crash highs today while S&P got resisted but could blow past them (1994) any minute still.

I'm a bit nervous.

----------


## devil21

> So dow made new post crash highs today while S&P got resisted but could blow past them (1994) any minute still.
> 
> I'm a bit nervous.


Looks like suckering in those last few buyers before the bottom falls out.  I'm thinking the Fed announces a rate hike tomorrow and away we go.

----------


## brandon

> So dow made new post crash highs today while S&P got resisted but could blow past them (1994) any minute still.
> 
> I'm a bit nervous.


Really wasn't much of a crash to begin with. Fell like 10%... just a normal correction. Where it's going next is anyone's guess, but I don't really see many signs of a crash. The world is fairly stable at the moment.

----------


## Zippyjuan

From the record high on the DOW (18,300), the bottom was a 14% drop.  It has already regained about half of it (up 1000 points since the bottom).  Not exactly the "beginning of the end" some predicted.

----------


## devil21

> From the record high on the DOW (18,300), the bottom was a 14% drop.  It has already regained about half of it (up 1000 points since the bottom).  Not exactly the "beginning of the end" some predicted.


It's commonly called the "denial" stage of a stock market crash chart.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Been hearing that since 2008.  DOW is more than double what it was in 2009.

But "One day- you just wait and see!"  Shemitah returns in just seven years!

----------


## devil21

> Been hearing that since 2008.  DOW is more than double what it was in 2009.


Would that mean the dollar is worth half of what it was in 2009?

----------


## Zippyjuan

Is it worth half what it was in 2009?

----------


## TheCount

> Been hearing that since 2008.  DOW is more than double what it was in 2009.
> 
> But "One day- you just wait and see!"  Shemitah returns in just seven years!


Maybe God forgot to set an apocalypse reminder on his phone.

----------


## Danke

> Been hearing that since 2008.  DOW is more than double what it was in 2009.
> 
> But "One day- you just wait and see!"  Shemitah returns in just seven years!


And the Nasdaq is almost back to the year 2000 highs.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> And the Nasdaq is almost back to the year 2000 highs.


Or if you want to start from the bottom of the recession in 2009, it is up 278%.

Or if you look at the S&P 500 it hit an all time high this week. (up 192% since recession)

----------


## DFF

In terms of Gold, the Nasdaq and DOW are both down significantly since 2000.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Of course gold underwent its own bubble since 2000. That peaked in 2011 and has fallen about 40% since.  Since then, the gold/ S&P 500 has tripled in favor of stocks.

----------


## kfarnan

> Of course gold underwent its own bubble since 2000. That peaked in 2011 and has fallen about 40% since.  Since then, the gold/ S&P 500 has tripled in favor of stocks.



PM's account for the fiat supply.  They do what they always have done when the currency expands and markets are overvalued.

----------


## presence

> *Investors are suffering from a nasty Fed-fueled hangover.*
> 
>   U.S. stocks retreated on Friday as frustration mounts over the Federal Reserve's vague plans to lift interest rates. The Dow declined 290 points points. The S&P 500 declined 1.6%, while the Nasdaq declined 1.4%.


http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/18/investing/us-stocks-dow-fed/index.html

----------


## Zippyjuan

> PM's account for the fiat supply.  They do what they always have done when the currency expands and markets are overvalued.


Gold mostly moves on economic fears. By 2011, people were seeing improvement in the economy and not as afraid of the future. Last gold bubble was in 1980 when we had double digit inflation and unemployment.  As those came down, so did the price of gold (for the next 20 years).

----------


## devil21

> Gold mostly moves on economic fears. By 2011, people were seeing improvement in the economy and not as afraid of the future. Last gold bubble was in 1980 when we had double digit inflation and unemployment.  As those came down, so did the price of gold (for the next 20 years).


The 1980 gold market was much, much more about physical gold compared to the almost entirely paper gold game today.  Was reading that COMEX has reached the point where there's one oz of physical gold in their vaults for every 250 paper claims on a single oz.

----------


## devil21

Dow futures are ugly.

----------


## fatjohn

As I write Nasdaq is down 3%. The worlds biggest retailer, amazon (ROFL), lost 500 round number support. Time to revisit its 28x floor if you ask me.

Great call presence, any additional views to share?

----------


## devil21

The Pope is gone.  Crashy time baby!  Grab your popcorn and get short if you're a market player.

----------


## jllundqu

SHEMITAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  LMAO............

This market is fun to watch... and I'm too poor to have anything invested in the casino... so I hope it all burns.

----------


## fatjohn

Will they successfully defend 16000 into the close again?

----------


## fatjohn

> Will they successfully defend 16000 into the close again?


Yes PPT saved the day. Now kids, one off these days they're going to lose 16000, lose their precious flash crash bottoms and sell off into the close with a new point record and letting everyone come to the revelation that this is a bear market. That china isnt doing ok. That the recovery was not proportional to the 2nd greatest bull market in history. An that this is going to go a lot further down.

----------


## devil21

> Yes PPT saved the day. Now kids, one off these days they're going to lose 16000, lose their precious flash crash bottoms and sell off into the close with a new point record and letting everyone come to the revelation that this is a bear market. That china isnt doing ok. That the recovery was not proportional to the 2nd greatest bull market in history. An that this is going to go a lot further down.


The fact that today's markets didn't do much except move sideways all day, instead of a big bounce back, is a bad sign.

A commentator on CNBC a few moments ago said tomorrow's open will be ugly.  He was cut off and the conversation was immediately redirected to something unrelated.  "We have to move on!"

Looks to me like they're setting up Glencore and Deutsche Bank to be the scapegoats for the crash (like Bear Stearns/Lehman and AIG in 2008).  Deutsche Bank's derivatives exposure is one of the largest of all banks.

----------


## DFF

Glencore blowout would be bad. Deutsche Bank meltdown would be catastrophic.

----------


## devil21

> Glencore blowout would be bad. Deutsche Bank meltdown would be catastrophic.


Those two entities surely would represent a major "reset", no?  Blowing out paper commodity prices across the board and popping the derivatives bubble at the same time.  BoA looks a bit shaky also.  BoA announced layoffs today and I've heard some interesting local anecdotal oddities about BoA operations the last couple days.

----------


## DFF

> Those two entities surely would represent a major "reset", no? Blowing out paper commodity prices across the board and popping the derivatives bubble at the same time.


Glencore's a behemoth, but I don't think they're so big that their implosion would take down the entire futures market.

Deutsche Bank with their gigantic derivative exposure though is another story. Lets cross our fingers they don't go down because it would be fugly.




> I've heard some interesting local anecdotal oddities about BoA operations the last couple days.


Anecdotal oddities like....prepping for a SHTF scenario?

----------


## DFF

Just read that Deutsche has 75 Trillion in derivatives exposure, the largest of any bank....that's a big and scary number, but I'm sure that 75 Trillion is broken up into many different financial vehicles...and it's unlikely that all of them would blowup simultaneously...this would be like the US mortgage industry melting down because everyone at the exact same moment in time decided to stop making mortgage payments.

----------


## devil21

> Glencore's a behemoth, but I don't think they're so big that their implosion would take down the entire futures market.
> 
> Deutsche Bank with their gigantic derivative exposure though is another story. Lets cross our fingers they don't go down because it would be fugly.


We shall see.  Much of what it is capable of taking down relies on how hard the media pushes their importance to those markets.  If the media declares Glencore a systemic risk then a systemic risk it will be.




> Anecdotal oddities like....prepping for a SHTF scenario?


Accounting related.

----------


## oyarde

Stock market is probably at a loss for more than a yr. I suppose , for a fee , I could give football picks.

----------


## fatjohn

> Glencore's a behemoth, but I don't think they're so big that their implosion would take down the entire futures market.
> 
> Deutsche Bank with their gigantic derivative exposure though is another story. Lets cross our fingers they don't go down because it would be fugly.
> 
> 
> 
> Anecdotal oddities like....prepping for a SHTF scenario?


Well according to one of the tylers, who nailed glencore, trafigura, which is slightly smaller than glencore and privately owned is also about to go bust. And interestingly the founder died "to cancer" today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...uphin-has-died

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...modity-traders

----------


## fatjohn

Can anyone explain what is going to keep glencore and trafigura from collapsing? Also wtf are these companies? What is their function? Why should I care again? And how bad is their combined 50+ Billion in debt?

----------


## DFF

> Can anyone explain what is going to keep glencore and trafigura from collapsing? Also wtf are these companies? What is their function? Why should I care again? And how bad is their combined 50+ Billion in debt?


Don't know...DFF only pawn in game of life.

----------


## devil21

> Can anyone explain what is going to keep glencore and trafigura from collapsing? Also wtf are these companies? What is their function? Why should I care again? And how bad is their combined 50+ Billion in debt?


http://www.glencore.com/

It's basically Enron all over again but instead about commodity extraction and production infrastructure instead of energy production and distribution infrastructure (with a side of money laundering) that Enron was.  A shell company that is used by TPTB to develop infrastructure or extract resources in foreign countries, then leave the investors holding the bag.  It is reported to have 10%-20% market share in most every commodity sector.  Interestingly, it has no positions in precious metals mining, officially.  That's interesting since most precious metal mining are only byproducts of industrial mining operations.  You probably shouldn't care except their huge debt load is tied to gigantic derivatives that would bankrupt the banks and insurance companies that guarantee those CDS, if Glencore collapsed.  Make no mistake, it's not accidental.  It is very well planned.

----------


## oyarde

> Would that mean the dollar is worth half of what it was in 2009?


I would say it is if you are buying Bacon or milk .Thank goodness I have no use for milk .

----------


## presence

*Traders start pricing Glencore bonds like junk*

CNBC‎ - 11 hours ago





> Can anyone explain what is going to keep glencore and trafigura from  collapsing? Also wtf are these companies? What is their function? Why  should I care again? And how bad is their combined 50+ Billion in debt?


good question 


Glencore is a commodity trader.   Just like a hardware store sells lumber and nails; except $#@!ing massive; each of these companies is worth 1/10th of a trillion dollars.   Glencore sells copper, coal, and oil.   Most of their "debt" is covered by oil or other commodities in hand.   The problem here is commodities are crashing; they need to dump inventory before its worth less than they paid.

Trafigura, Mercuria, Glencore, and Vitol are the big players in commodities.  Commodities are $#@!ed; hence big players are caught holding the bag with excess inventory/debt.  

Only 3 commodities have managed to escape 2015 carnage
MarketWatch‎ - 1 day ago

Bad quarter for stocks; dire one for commodities
CNBC‎ - 1 day ago



Moody's is calling Glencore Bonds Baa2; which means they're half a step better than junk.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's_Investors_Service

As devil21 said:




> A shell company that is used by TPTB to develop infrastructure or  extract resources in foreign countries, then leave the investors holding  the bag.


Its bag holding time.   


Now the deal with Trafigura is that they're not publically traded; its a private company... what they do issue is bonds; aka debt.  The problem with their debt is that its currently 10X earnings if you're being kind.   Thats pretty nasty.

A rewind on the way equity vs bonds move:






to make matters a little more urgent... The big boss of Trafigura just died this morning of cancer complications; he was *the deal maker* till the very end.





> The impeccably dressed Frenchman was the driving force behind  Trafigura’s ascension to the top ranks of the commodity trading sector.  Armed with a reputation as a hard-driving boss, he asked the same of  Trafigura employees who rewarded him with fierce loyalty.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...modities-slump

----------


## presence

A comparison of trifugura 2015 vs lehman 2008

https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/T...1215-Chart-263

The key here;  bonds are NOT linear;   they reach a point of no return... then almost INSTANTLY they're junk.

kinda sketch, but they'll pay it back
yeah it'll take time but they'll pay it back
piss poor, but they'll pay it back

then BOOM; $#@!ing hell... this $#@! is worthless.

----------


## devil21

If all that wasn't bad enough, Hurricane Joaquin has a very possible track directly to NYC.  I'm sure an 8 foot storm surge into Manhattan is market positive....

----------


## fatjohn

So jobs are disastrous -60k below expectations, august was 30k off. Market rallies.

----------


## RonPaulIsGreat

Commodities horrible. 
Debt rising. 
Interest rates near or at all time lows. 

What could go wrong.

----------


## devil21

> So jobs are disastrous -60k below expectations, august was 30k off. Market rallies.


Days like today are when I'm glad I'm not a trader and instead try to focus on the bigger picture.  A lot of people got flat ripped off by the PPT today.  

Nasdaq closed at 470*7.77*.  I cringe every time that number comes up in closing numbers.

----------


## DFF

It was indeed a helluva intraday reversal. Zerohedge said it was the biggest such reversal since 2011. 
As far as where we go from here....with China/commodities carnage you would _think_ down. 
But since pretty much everybody's thinking this exact same thing, this could be a bullish counter-intuitive indicator.
Granted there's no real fundamental reason for a rally here....but short squeezes brought on by PPT pump can do incredible things.

----------


## kfarnan

why are they (PPT) allowed to manipulate the market still?  Seems illegal.

----------


## dannno

> why are they (PPT) allowed to manipulate the market still?  Seems illegal.


The official name is the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. Ron Paul tried to shine some light on them, besides mentioning them in the media, also in the GOP debates by asking McCain a question about them, which he dodged and nobody else paid attention to because they are retarded. I'm sure he also tried to take some action in congress.

----------


## timosman

> why are they (PPT) allowed to manipulate the market still?  Seems illegal.

----------


## devil21

Deutsche Bank has some minor issues and is about to post a $7 billion Q3 loss.

http://www.businessinsider.com/deuts...rushed-2015-10

Anybody seen zippy lately?  When he bugs out...


The next week will be interesting.  Oct 13th is an important religious calendar date.

eta:
I'm probably wrong so don't take this as advice but a lot of signs point to a big announcement made on Columbus Day involving a large bank, when the US government, banks and markets are closed, that results in Oct 13 being a market bloodbath.  Hopefully I'm misreading tea leaves but signs are not good.

eta2:  No announcement today, bank earnings start the 13th.  A local bank that was closed for business held a bank-wide staff meeting today.  Couldn't get info on what exactly was said but timing is curious.  Next couple days are going to be important!

----------


## devil21

CNBC talking about black swan events on a pretty negative day after Wal-mart report.  Next leg down starting?

----------


## presence

> Next leg down starting?


indeed, my gut of guts puts the bottom at djia 5200 out towards spring 2018.   I sense a market ugliness that few can fathom.  




> The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) traded down 4.36% at $134.17. The stock’s  52-week range is $115.14 to $158.83. Trading volume was about 80% above  the daily average of around 3.8 million. Investors appear to be reacting  to a report that Delta Air Lines is looking to buy 
> 
> 
> used, rather than  new, airplanes.
> 
> 
> 
> Read more:  The 4 Stocks That Tanked the DJIA on Wednesday


That news would've made Howard Hughes' eye twitch.

----------


## devil21

> indeed, my gut of guts puts the bottom at djia 5200 out towards spring 2018.   I sense a market ugliness that few can fathom.  
> 
> 
> 
> That news would've made Howard Hughes' eye twitch.


A Boeing exec, iirc, said "widebodies are in a huge bubble" on CNBC yesterday.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> CNBC talking about black swan events on a pretty negative day after Wal-mart report.  Next leg down starting?


Dow up about 150 so far today.  

As for "Black Swans":  http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-...an-event-fears




> *'Black swan events': don't sell your stocks out of panic*
> 
> <snip>
> 
> That’s what happens when markets are confronted with one of former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous “unknown unknowns”. Anything that resembles a black swan causes even the most grizzled veteran trader to recoil in fear and stage a terrified dash toward the exits. It’s an instinctive reflex; the same kind that you display when the doctor whacks your knee with a little rubber hammer.
> 
> Most of us aren’t professional traders, however. Yes, whatever happens during ugly sell-offs like that we witnessed on Monday – or similar market meltdowns triggered by events like the “flash crash” of 2010 or the 9/11 terrorist attacks – is going to have some kind of impact on our portfolios. That doesn’t mean that we should allow our kneejerk response to be reflected in our investment decisions, however.
> 
> Black swan events are dramatic precisely because they’re so unexpected and so improbable – just as the European discovery that such things as black swans existed in Australia and New Zealand was in the 18th century. Natural scientists of that era may have been forced to overhaul their most basic principles to take the new discoveries into consideration, but that’s not necessarily true for ordinary investors with a long-term horizon.
> ...


more at link.

----------


## devil21

Goldman and JPM miss estimates?  MOONSHOT ON THEIR STOCKS!  Tons of big companies miss estimates?  RALLY ON!  Wal-mart declares retail is $#@!ed now and next year.  RALLY ON!  All news is good news when the PPT shows up.  What a joke.  

Buy metals and forget trading.  

And what's with CNBC's fixation with Tesla?  Every time I turn it on they're talking about some Tesla that costs $130k and few people will buy.

----------


## angelatc

> And what's with CNBC's fixation with Tesla?  Every time I turn it on they're talking about some Tesla that costs $130k and few people will buy.


Government subsidized it.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Tesla has had some big fans on this forum.

----------


## fatjohn

I'll be honest. I couldnt help but shorting this market and piling on as it went lower and higher because in my heart i know im right. In doing so i was succesful at timing it as bad as one could do it.
And so some stop losses were hit on facebook, amazon and the dow in the past days and i tried to keep my exposure.

To add insult to injury, i did it with bitcoins, which have only risen in value while i was losing them hand over fist.

I recommend everyone to never lever up. Even if it looks so clear. Even if the market turns on monday and falls 20% over the week I'll have a huge profit, but the agony wont have been worth it.

I just want to know why a fb profile is valued at 200$ a pop. Or why uber is as valuable as airbus, you know the cab app vs the company that makes half of the worlds planes and satellites.



If this is not the intermediate top with a further downswing to come, i dont know where this rally will end up. Maybe 30000. Ffs.

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wal...000-2015-10-16




> *U.S. stocks score third straight weekly rise*
> 
> U.S. stocks ended a choppy session slightly higher on Friday, posting a third consecutive week of gains as investors appeared to shrug off lackluster corporate earnings and mixed economic data.
> 
> The S&P 500 SPX, +0.46%  switched between small gains and losses, but managed to close higher, rising 9.21 points, or 0.5%, to 2,033.07, its highest finish since Aug. 20. The benchmark index gained 0.9% over the week, with most of the gains concentrated in defensive sectors such as utilities, health-care and telecoms.
> 
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.43%  gained 74.09 points, or 0.4%, to settle at 17,215.84, and booked a 0.8% weekly gain. Nike, Inc. NKE, +1.30%  and Exxon Mobil Corp XOM, +1.23%  were the top gainers over the week, rising more than 4%. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. WMT, -0.08%  plunged 12% over the week, most of the losses coming after disappointing quarterly results.
> 
> 
> ...


Compared to numbers in the OP warning us of the crash, Dow was 17,550 meaning it is still down by 335.  S&P 500 from 2093 is still down 60.

----------


## devil21

> I'll be honest. I couldnt help but shorting this market and piling on as it went lower and higher because in my heart i know im right. In doing so i was succesful at timing it as bad as one could do it.
> And so some stop losses were hit on facebook, amazon and the dow in the past days and i tried to keep my exposure.
> 
> To add insult to injury, i did it with bitcoins, which have only risen in value while i was losing them hand over fist.
> 
> I recommend everyone to never lever up. Even if it looks so clear. Even if the market turns on monday and falls 20% over the week I'll have a huge profit, but the agony wont have been worth it.
> 
> I just want to know why a fb profile is valued at 200$ a pop. Or why uber is as valuable as airbus, you know the cab app vs the company that makes half of the worlds planes and satellites.
> 
> ...


Yeah it's pointless to try to trade this market.  You will lose.  Mattel posted a huge miss and yet their stock went up 5%.  Next week, every large corp could report losses and the market wouldn't flinch.  Crash won't officially start until some guy in a room in NJ pushes the red button.  It's going to be soon but trying to time it through options is a recipe for insolvency.




> Tesla has had some big fans on this forum.


I'm thinkin all the Tesla love on CNBC isn't about the company or their vehicles, but rather Tesla's other....ahem....'contributions' that small groups can appreciate.

----------


## fatjohn

Yeah, i saw mattel.

I can understand the bad news is good news them wrt the feds rate. But i would expect indices to move up, not the individual companies who perform the worst.

Are yellen and bernanke going to drop more money on the specific companies that do crappy like mattel?
What the hell?

----------


## fatjohn

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1939...ngs-on-the-way

Including GE and other reports this morning, we now have Q3 results from 56 S&P 500 members that combined account for 17.8% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these companies are up +3.9% from the same period last year on -0.1% lower revenues, with 69.6% beating EPS estimates and 41.1% coming ahead of revenue estimates. This is weak performance relative to what we saw from this same group of 56 index members in other recent periods, with growth pace notably going down once contribution from easy comparisons at Bank of America (BAC) are excluded from the numbers. Surprises have started looking weaker relative to other recent periods, with the revenue beat ratio of 41.1% at this stage down from 48.2% in the preceding quarter and the 4-quarter average of 51.3% for the same cohort of players.

*Looking at Q3 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 56 companies that have reported with estimates for the still-to-come 444 index members, total earnings are expected to be down -4.5% on -4.8% lower revenues. Estimates for Q4 have started to come down, with total earnings for the S&P 500 index now expected to be down -5.2% from the same period last year, which is down from an expected decline -4.7% last Friday.*

----------


## fatjohn

Mhh seems that the open on monday will depend on morgan stanley, halliburton and valeant (the rollercoasterride)

And M&T bank corp, which although smaller then the others had very strange movement to the downside in its closing minutes last friday. Insider trading?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mtb

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Yeah, i saw mattel.
> 
> I can understand the bad news is good news them wrt the feds rate. But i would expect indices to move up, not the individual companies who perform the worst.
> 
> *Are yellen and bernanke going to drop more money on the specific companies that do crappy like mattel?*
> What the hell?


Fed doesn't give or loan money to companies.

----------


## fatjohn

> Fed doesn't *directly* give or loan money to companies.


Fixed it for ya.

----------


## oyarde

I am raking it in , need a day off to count my money .

----------


## kfarnan

> Fed doesn't give or loan money to companies.


What's it they did then?

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

----------


## Zippyjuan

That list includes all Federal Government bailouts along with Fed actions.  General Motors and Chrysler did not get loans from the Federal Reserve. They and the mortgage companies got money through TARP- not the Fed.  As the article notes: 




> Companies that failed to repay the government and resulted in a loss are shaded red. You can see a list of those investments here. All other investments either returned a profit to the government or might still be repaid. *Recipients of aid through TARP’s housing programs (such as mortgage servicers and state housing orgs)* received subsidies that were never intended to be repaid, so we don’t mark those as losses..

----------


## Madison320

> indeed, my gut of guts puts the bottom at djia 5200 out towards spring 2018.   I sense a market ugliness that few can fathom.  
> 
> 
> 
> That news would've made Howard Hughes' eye twitch.


I don't see the DOW going anywhere near that low without the Fed launching QE4.

----------


## fatjohn

What a day!

Started with Morgan Stanley making a horrendous loss and ended with a gruesome IBM failure!

Markets are up thanks to a ten minute closing rally to daily highs partially because Oprah bought into Weight Watchers.

----------


## oyarde

> Tesla has had some big fans on this forum.


Not from me .

----------


## oyarde

> I'll be honest. I couldnt help but shorting this market and piling on as it went lower and higher because in my heart i know im right. In doing so i was succesful at timing it as bad as one could do it.
> And so some stop losses were hit on facebook, amazon and the dow in the past days and i tried to keep my exposure.
> 
> To add insult to injury, i did it with bitcoins, which have only risen in value while i was losing them hand over fist.
> 
> I recommend everyone to never lever up. Even if it looks so clear. Even if the market turns on monday and falls 20% over the week I'll have a huge profit, but the agony wont have been worth it.
> 
> I just want to know why a fb profile is valued at 200$ a pop. Or why uber is as valuable as airbus, you know the cab app vs the company that makes half of the worlds planes and satellites.
> 
> ...


Everybody get all the Uber , 1 800 flowers , fbook etc ya need ,  leave the few real things to me , LOL

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Quote Originally Posted by presence  View Post
> indeed, my gut of guts puts the bottom at djia 5200 out towards spring 2018. I sense a market ugliness that few can fathom. 
> 
> 
> 
> That news would've made Howard Hughes' eye twitch.
> 			
> 		
> 
> I don't see the DOW going anywhere near that low without the Fed launching QE4.


70% drop in stocks from where they are now would certainly get their attention.

----------


## fatjohn

Anyone noticed how glencore got in the news three weeks 

Luckily since then copper and commodity prices have rebounded tremendously. Oh, wait...

Also, deutsche bank. 6 billion here, 6 billion there...

----------


## fatjohn

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...0-news-pending

Valeant down 40% or 30 billion. Cnbc talks ferrari

----------


## reduen

I am very impressed with the OP here! Any chance on some weekly advice or something like that..?

----------


## cocrehamster

> I am very impressed with the OP here! Any chance on some weekly advice or something like that..?


Yeah, his ultra short ETF is up 40 cents from when he recommended it and the markets have truly crashed. Can I borrow your crystal ball OP?

----------


## fatjohn

I feel like such an idiot

----------


## devil21

Another 1*777*9 closing number today.  Not always a bad sign but should be noted when it comes up.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Why? What does it mean?  What other good or bad numbers are there?

----------


## devil21

> Why? What does it mean?  What other good or bad numbers are there?


Not the thread for it and too complicated to explain succintly.  Just something to watch.

----------


## presence

transport (DJT) and energy (XLE) continue to tank.  there is no way industrials (DJI) and tech (IXIC) can rally without them.






this market is toxic.  ignore the october rally and  stay away.

----------


## presence

The $SPXA200R is a breadth indicator showing the percentage of S&P 500  stocks above the 200-day moving average.


here in daily candles:



the 50 day vs 200 day cross down hasn't even begun to be corrected; daily rsi entering overbought.

----------


## Lightweis

Hope everyone followed my lead and bought the crash.

----------


## Madison320

My guess is the market is going to tank now that people think rate hikes are back in play after the jobs report.

----------


## jllundqu

Can someone PLEASE tell me where and when the Shemitah is coming?????    lol

----------


## presence

> Hope everyone followed my lead and bought the crash.



nice pickup.   I'd let that go again here.

----------


## Zippyjuan

SPUX- the S&P 500 shorting fund from post #5 was 32.63 when the thread was started.  Today it is 30.21- down 7.4%. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPXU+Interactive#{"range":"1d","allowCha  rtStacking":true}

----------


## wizardwatson

> Can someone PLEASE tell me where and when the Shemitah is coming?????    lol


Shemitah already happened, bro.  It's Jubilee year now. 

There isn't going to be any big "sign" for this generation unless Jesus is a liar.  If you want to know the details of what the Shemitah is saying you have to read.  The doors of mercy are closing fast.

If you want to know exactly when the apocalypse is going to start before it starts you're probably out of luck.  God wants it to be a surprise.  That whole "thief in the night" thing.  But you will know after it's started.  Clearly laid out for you in Revelation 6.




> The Sixth Seal: Terror
> 12And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and, lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood; 13And the stars of heaven fell unto the earth, even as a fig tree casteth her untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind. 14And the heaven departed as a scroll when it is rolled together; and every mountain and island were moved out of their places. 15And the kings of the earth, and the great men, and the rich men, and the chief captains, and the mighty men, and every bondman, and every free man, hid themselves in the dens and in the rocks of the mountains; 16And said to the mountains and rocks, Fall on us, and hide us from the face of him that sitteth on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb: 17For the great day of his wrath is come; and who shall be able to stand?


When there's a huge earthquake and something so terrible happens that the elite start occupying their bunkers.  It has started.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Shemitah already happened, bro. It's Jubilee year now.


Neither one of which is about economics or the end of the world.  Though this is not quite true.  During Shemitah you are supposed to forgive debts and not work your fields to let them rest for a year.

----------


## wizardwatson

> Neither one of which is about economics or the end of the world.  Though this is not quite true.  During Shemitah you are supposed to forgive debts and not work your fields to let them rest for a year.


Is your statement based on the fact that you've read Cahn's books?  I'm guessing not.  I think we established that months ago.

I don't think it's necessary to clarify every time the Shemitah mystery is mentioned that we're referring to Jonathan Cahn's interpretation as outlined in his two books since the only reason it's even part of pop culture is because of him.  No one was saying that word until he wrote his book.

----------


## devil21

> Shemitah already happened, bro.  It's Jubilee year now.


The Catholic jubilee doesn't start until Dec 8 2015.




> Is your statement based on the fact that you've read Cahn's books?  I'm guessing not.  I think we established that months ago.
> 
> I don't think it's necessary to clarify every time the Shemitah mystery is mentioned that we're referring to Jonathan Cahn's interpretation as outlined in his two books since the only reason it's even part of pop culture is because of him.  No one was saying that word until he wrote his book.


The 7 year cycles were known about (if not entirely recognized at the time) since they are in the bible.  Cahn's interpretation could be correct or incorrect.  Fwiw, I had an interesting interaction with a jewish acquaintance regarding Shmita and he responded very strangely when the subject came up.  One conversation he basically admitted that it's a "thing" but wouldn't elaborate much and his body language became uncomfortable.  A later conversation he acted like I had two heads when I mentioned it and said he had no idea what I was talking about.  Weird.

----------


## devil21

> nice pickup.   I'd let that go again here.


With the 250+ drop today, you may have nailed it again!  Seems about the right time for the "Denial" (Denali?) stage to have run its course.

----------


## presence

> Copper  smelters, oil explorers and iron ore miners tumbled in Asia following a  collapse in returns from raw materials 
> 
> 
> to 
> the 
> lowest 
> in 
> 16 years. 
> 
> ...


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-deepens-pain

REKT

----------


## wizardwatson

> The Catholic jubilee doesn't start until Dec 8 2015.


Yet another synchronicity as the last two Jewish Jubilee's did not fall on a Catholic Jubilee.




> The 7 year cycles were known about (if not entirely recognized at the time) since they are in the bible.  Cahn's interpretation could be correct or incorrect.  Fwiw, I had an interesting interaction with a jewish acquaintance regarding Shmita and he responded very strangely when the subject came up.  One conversation he basically admitted that it's a "thing" but wouldn't elaborate much and his body language became uncomfortable.  A later conversation he acted like I had two heads when I mentioned it and said he had no idea what I was talking about.  Weird.


Correct or incorrect with respect to what?  The main problem with people's interpretation of Cahn is they assume he's predicting something.  Hence, all the "will the world end September 23rd" paranoia.  I think of it more as a tsunami warning.  The events he analyzes are in the past.  They only point to a gradual building and immanence.  

Anyway, it's all just synchronicity so dismissing it as coincidence along with the record-breaking number of earthquakes this year is certainly an option.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Yet another synchronicity as the last two Jewish Jubilee's did not fall on a Catholic Jubilee.
> 
> 
> 
> Correct or incorrect with respect to what?  The main problem with people's interpretation of Cahn is they assume he's predicting something.  Hence, all the "will the world end September 23rd" paranoia.  I think of it more as a tsunami warning.  The events he analyzes are in the past.  They only point to a gradual building and immanence.  
> 
> Anyway, it's all just synchronicity so dismissing it as coincidence *along with the record-breaking number of earthquakes this year* is certainly an option.


What is the annual record for earthquakes?  Do you count all quakes of all sizes or are only looking at quakes of a certain size? How many happened this year?  

According to Wiki, this year (so far) is the third lowest total number of quakes in the last decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...quakes_in_2015

If you consider large quakes of 7.0 and above, this year trails 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 in the last decade. 8.0 or higher?  Tied for second lowest (with five other years) with one.  2007 had four times that many huge quakes.  An average to below average year at best over the last ten years.  Certainly no records broken.

----------


## wizardwatson

> What is the annual record for earthquakes?  Do you count all quakes of all sizes or are only looking at quakes of a certain size? How many happened this year?  
> 
> According to Wiki, this year (so far) is the third lowest total number of quakes in the last decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...quakes_in_2015
> 
> If you consider large quakes of 7.0 and above, this year trails 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 in the last decade. 8.0 or higher?  Tied for second lowest (with five other years) with one.  2007 had four times that many huge quakes.  An average to below average year at best over the last ten years.  Certainly no records broken.


Well, this was on drudge a couple days ago:

http://www.charismanews.com/opinion/...n-in-september

I'm talking about Oklahoma and west coast.  

And I only mentioned the earthquakes in the sentence where I said considering it coincidence is certainly an option.  It doesn't matter if records are broken really.  It doesn't "mean" something is going to happen, it only means that certain conditions are met for what is prophesied.

If Jesus says there will be earthquakes all over the place when the end comes it doesn't mean the end is coming because there are earthquakes all over the place.  But it does mean conditions are met.

----------


## Zippyjuan

SO the Bible was talking about Oklahoma in Revelations. Interesting. Doesn't it say "great" earthquakes?   Do the tiny quakes in Oklahoma qualify as "great" quakes? Yellowstone had even more quakes than that a few years ago.

http://biblehub.com/luke/21-11.htm




> 10Then He continued by saying to them, "Nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom, 11and there will be *great earthquakes*, and in various places plagues and famines; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. 12"But before all these things, they will lay their hands on you and will persecute you, delivering you to the synagogues and prisons, bringing you before kings and governors for My name's sake.…

----------


## wizardwatson

> SO the Bible was talking about Oklahoma in Revelations. Interesting. Doesn't it say "great" earthquakes? (and it wasn't Jesus saying it but another writer of that Bible book).  Do the tiny quakes in Oklahoma qualify as "great" quakes? Yellowstone had even more quakes than that a few years ago.


Not talking about revelation.  Talking about what Jesus said when he was asked what signs there would be.  Earthquakes was just one thing he mentioned.  Said there would be earthquakes in diverse places.  Pretty non-specific considering no one (especially before the advent of technology) is really aware of earthquakes far away from them, except in today's world.

End times prophecy is throughout the bible, fyi, not just in revelation.  Jesus spoke quite a bit about it (not as much as we'd all like).

----------


## devil21

With the Paris "event" today, it's obvious something is underway.  Too many things converging onto the same timeline to ignore.  I don't know if presence wants this thread to off in the religious direction so I'll leave that decision to presence.  The game is afoot, however!  I hope people are buckled up.




> Correct or incorrect with respect to what?  The main problem with people's interpretation of Cahn is they assume he's predicting something.


Nothing in particular since I didn't read the book, therefore I don't know what he was claiming.  The Shmita/Jubilee stuff is very real religious observance though and it appears this cycle of observances are carrying a lot more "weight" than recent examples.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Every year has earthquakes. Every year brings some sort of major tragedy.  Shmita or Jubilee or "normal" years.  All of them. Tens of thousands of them which have not yet led to the End of the World and the Second Coming.

----------


## fatjohn

So copper is at 2 bucks now. Continuing its superslide. So when will we hear stuff again from the glencores and trafiguras in the world?

----------


## devil21

Next leg down finally started this week?  What is your chart reading telling you, presence?

Interesting watching oil and the dollar move in the same direction while gold sits still.

eta:  CNBC has Carl Icahn on right now and he's all doom-n-gloom, saying meltdown is just starting.  Those that remember 2008 should remember that SHTF when they started doing doom-n-gloom interviews with the big players...

----------


## Krugminator2

My thoughts from someone who has made, lost, and made  a little bit of money. The market is at a major key inflection point.

A lot of sentiment indicators  says the market should rally. The equity put/call spiked to .96 on Tuesday. The last 10 times this happened the market closed higher within the next week.  Equity mutual fund outflows are at the highest levels since the S&P downgrade in 2011.  Next week is  Fed day. If you would have bought the close of the the day before a Fed and held for one day, you would have picked up  almost 100% of the S&P gains over the last decade. The AAII investor sentiment and Tickersense both had a spike in bearish sentiment but that isn't a big point. The McClellan oscillator is at levels that have led to rallies the last 6 times and it almost at the crash levels from August. December 15 through the end of the year is seasonally been one of the most bullish times over the last 40 years. 

The flip side is the trend follow indicators and the basic market timing model I use show the market should drop. Every leading stock has broken down.  Monday could be the start of a series of rate tightening.  Junk bonds have been crashing which tend to lead stocks.  And there hasn't been a nice 20% drop in a long time. And stocks are the high end of valuation of most valuation metrics. All of the contrarian indicators tend to work until they don't and crashes happen when things look really terrible like now.

This has been my worst month in 5 years and I have been bleeding out of my eyes and yet I am still ridiculously long. Markets like to inflict pain. I suspect there are  lot of people like me who are permabulls who haven't cut back as much they should. This is exactly the time where stock market crashes happen and if Yellen says something the market doesn't like then it could be bad news. Just my thoughts.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.

----------


## kfarnan

> Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.


That's what they said in 2008 and 2001.  People never learn.

----------


## Zippyjuan

People who move in and out of the market tend to move out after it experiences a large drop and go back in after it has gone back up a lot meaning they sold low and bought high and lose a lot of money they would have had if they had just kept what they had and stayed with it.  I got lucky in 2009 and made my annual IRA contribution (my $5,000 maximum allowed) the very week in March the market hit bottom.

----------


## devil21

Dow -367 today.  Dips are growing larger.  Look out below.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Lots of expiring options today.  Rare "Quadruple Witching" day (occurs four times a year). http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/18/us-markets.html




> "You can't dismiss the quadruple witching. It begins to affect market volatility and volume. You also have a backdrop for the market that has not been as healthy as you want to see it," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.
> 
> "The market basically has been going back, reverting to where it was before (the Fed)," she said. Low "oil prices has been difficult for the market to accept."


Let's see what happens Monday.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/...lewitching.asp




> *DEFINITION of 'Quadruple Witching'*
> 
> The expiration date of various *stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures*. All stock options contracts expire on the third Friday of each month and once every quarter - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - *all four asset classes expire on the same day.* Because futures and options investors must close out of their positions on those days, they often witness increased trading volume.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Schiff- Gold still Going To $5000.  He has also said the Fed could never end QE.  The would never raise interest rates.  A recession is right around the corner.  As he has said every year since 2007. 



http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/gold-...er-schiff.html



> Gold prices plunged more than 2 percent Thursday on the heels of the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike in nearly a decade. The commodity is now sitting near its lowest level since 2010, and with 8 ½ trading sessions left in 2015,* the commodity is on track for its third straight year of losses — which would be the longest losing streak since 1998.* But despite the horrid returns, one noted gold bug is sticking to his claims that the commodity could soon surge.
> 
> On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, Peter Schiff *stood behind his previous call that gold will reach $5,000. "It's still going to go there,"* said Schiff when he was asked about his uber-bullish prediction. "I don't think there's that much downside [in gold] because I think most of this is already built into the price," he added.
> 
> According to Schiff, regardless of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says, the U.S. economy is "rapidly going into a recession," which will inevitably trigger the central bank to retract the rate hike and reinstate gold as the safe haven asset it once was.
> 
> "I think symbolically just to show that they have confidence in the economy that they have no confidence in, [the Fed] raised rates to 25 basis points," said the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. *Schiff has long believed the Fed would in fact never hike, but instead induce another round of quantitative easing*.

----------


## Dforkus

> Schiff- Gold still Going To $5000.  He has also said the Fed could never end QE.  The would never raise interest rates.  A recession is right around the corner.  As he has said every year since 2007. 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/gold-...er-schiff.html


I've got about 10k cash free in my online trading account, trying to figure out where to make the move..

With natural gas so cheap right now, there is going to be consolidation in the MLP space.. Whoever is the winner in that space is going to gain a lot of power..
I think its going to be EPD/ETE/ETP, but that is just speculation..

My main retirement split between high grade bonds, and index funds, that won't change...

----------


## Zippyjuan

I still like my utility DRIP- Dividend Re-Investment Plan. Bonds pay low rates these days and are at risk of losing value as interest rates rise (unless you buy and hold).

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Dow -367 today.  Dips are growing larger.  Look out below.


DOW rebounded 123 points today. Looks like Quadruple Witching was a factor on Friday's losses.

----------


## jllundqu

Watching the predictable 3:30pm PPT go to work is comical.  Does anyone believe this is real anymore?

Think, just for a moment, about where we are.

In the past, if my father wanted to invest in a company, he would purchase shares.  If the company was under wise leadership and produced/provided a value to the ecomomy, it profited.  These profits were then shared with people like my father, who would receive his dividend check in the mail.  Contrast that with where we are today...  Algos and HFT front-running the front-runners... FED FOMC minutes... QE Infinity...  BTFDers.....   Nothing about the market today is real.  This central-banking experiment is a very sad tale to watch as it comes apart.  Seeing my country in nearly 20-trillion in debt while watching the rich get richer takes its toll on the soul.

----------


## presence

USD-CNY likely to test 7.0 by end of 2016 - EconoTimesEconoTimes‎ - 4 hours ago



*Dow sets mark for most volatile December since 2008
MarketWatch-Dec 18, 2015**Classic theory could put the market in jeopardy*CNBC-17 hours ago

*Industrial Stock Technicals Suggest More Pain Ahead*Barron's-17 hours ago

*Tumbling commodities prices shake index*Financial Times-Dec 20, 2015

*More Pain Ahead for Commodities in 2016: Analysts*ThinkAdvisor-Dec 21, 2015

*FTSE 100: Further Losses Possible on Soft Commodities*DailyFX-Dec 21, 2015

Spain threatens to RUPTURE _eurozone_: Investors on edge 
Express.co.uk-Dec 21, 2015

*Tumbling oil prices taking a toll on energy jobs, production in ...*The Advocate-Dec 19, 2015
*Oil keeps tumbling: Brent sinks to 11-year low*Seeking Alpha-Dec 20, 2015
Brent crude is now shattering records.






*Why Markets Aren't in the Holiday Spirit*Wall Street Journal-19 hours ago

2015 Will End With Oil And Gas _Markets_ Writhing In Pain
In-Depth-Forbes-Dec 19, 2015

----------


## presence

> Buy and hold and don't worry about short term movements.





> The return of market volatility last week shouldn’t have come as a  big surprise given the unusual economic, political and geopolitical  fluidity around the world. The past year has been characterized by  occasional spikes in volatility, either in the form of sharp asset-price  gains or, as was the case last week, acute falls. 
> 
> *And 2016 promises a  lot more of the same, which should force investors to pay greater  attention to the dynamics of potential tipping points.*
> 
> 
>  The central question is not whether market volatility is on the rise;  it is. Rather, the main uncertainty is whether these occasional spikes  will prove both temporary and reversible, and, in particular, whether  injections of liquidity from both public and private sources will  continue to quickly stabilize market conditions, and for how long.


http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Moham.../21/id/706743/

----------


## oyarde

> So copper is at 2 bucks now. Continuing its superslide. So when will we hear stuff again from the glencores and trafiguras in the world?


I have been buying some .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Watching the predictable 3:30pm PPT go to work is comical.  Does anyone believe this is real anymore?
> 
> Think, just for a moment, about where we are.
> 
> In the past, if my father wanted to invest in a company, he would purchase shares.  If the company was under wise leadership and produced/provided a value to the ecomomy, it profited.  These profits were then shared with people like my father, who would receive his dividend check in the mail.  Contrast that with where we are today...  Algos and HFT front-running the front-runners... FED FOMC minutes... QE Infinity...  BTFDers.....   Nothing about the market today is real.  This central-banking experiment is a very sad tale to watch as it comes apart.  Seeing my country in nearly 20-trillion in debt while watching the rich get richer takes its toll on the soul.


Rich have been getting richer since long before the country was even founded.

----------


## fatjohn

> I have been buying some .


Copper or glencore?

----------


## presence



----------


## Jan2017

> Monday's wave of selling began in Asia. 
> Trading in China was stopped  prematurely after circuit breakers were triggered during their first day  since they were implemented. 
> Circuit breakers act as a kind of  emergency brake to halt trading during times of extreme volatility.





> The benchmark Shanghai Composite plummeted nearly 7%.
>  The Shenzhen  Composite, often compared to America's Nasdaq index because it's home to  many tech companies, nosedived more than 8%.


http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/04/inve...ets-dow-china/

----------


## presence

*US MARKETS TAKE WILD RIDE ON OPENING DAY...

DOW -275...

Global Shares Tumble as Fears Rise Over Fresh Turmoil...

China's 7-Minute Selling Frenzy...

Rigged markets could fall much further, much faster... 

Brazil Heads for Worst Recession Since 1901...*

----------


## wizardwatson

*
Maybe we should have an old people subforum where all the text is in this size and font.  In addition to getting the point across in a loud way to the average reader, your making grandma and granpas stay more comfortable.
*

----------


## Danke

> *
> Maybe we should have an old people subforum where all the text is in this size and font.  In addition to getting the point across in a loud way to the average reader, your making grandma and granpas stay more comfortable.
> *


good idea, punk

----------


## wizardwatson

> good idea, punk


Oh! You called me a "punk".  Old fogey?

----------


## presence

lol I copy pasted from drudge and clicked post... never even checked it until now



*so sorry*

----------


## DFF

One bad day doesn't automatically equate to great depression 2.0

Uptrend from 2009 is still firmly intact.

----------


## Madison320

> One bad day doesn't automatically equate to great depression 2.0
> 
> Uptrend from 2009 is still firmly intact.


Yup. Total debt is about to hit 19 trillion.

----------


## presence

DJIA 16911

----------


## sparebulb

> *
> Maybe we should have an old people subforum where all the text is in this size and font.  In addition to getting the point across in a loud way to the average reader, your making grandma and granpas stay more comfortable.
> *




Old folks nodding off after consuming their dinner and Lipitor.

They are only interested in SSI and let the AARP do their thinking for them.

----------


## presence

> One bad day doesn't automatically equate to great depression 2.0
> 
> Uptrend from 2009 is still firmly intact.

----------


## Madison320

> 


Why does low volume mean a bear market?

----------


## presence

> Why does low volume mean a bear market?


After a bull market you don't enter a "bear market"; post bull market you enter a "capitulating" market.   

BULL -> CAPITULATE -> BEAR -> BOUNCE


sometimes you'll get bull>cap>bull>cap>bear>bounce>bull>cap>bull>cap etc. or double bear>bounce etc.




We're seeing bull volume dry up; we're at the precipice of the lemming cliff; we're watching the bull "fizzle"; we've since broken the horizontal lines here:





sell volume will then breakout; you'll soon see high volume, fast price movement capitulation.

----------


## presence



----------


## Madison320

> After a bull market you don't enter a "bear market"; post bull market you enter a "capitulating" market.   
> 
> BULL -> CAPITULATE -> BEAR -> BOUNCE
> 
> 
> sometimes you'll get bull>cap>bull>cap>bear>bounce>bull>cap>bull>cap etc. or double bear>bounce etc.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



My guess is the Fed is going to support the market if it falls too far with more QE. So you may not see a huge drop in nominal terms. But eventually the dollar will crash.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence



----------


## presence



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## presence



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## presence



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## presence



----------


## Danke



----------


## devil21

Got metals?  Gold, silver, lead and aluminum.  The aluminum surrounds food items.

----------


## The Gold Standard

Who knows how long they will keep up the illusion, but we will see DOW 10,000 long before we ever see DOW 20,000.

----------


## Original_Intent

DJIA futures WAY down

----------


## devil21

> DJIA futures WAY down


-408 at 5:35am ET and falling FAST!

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

1 US Dollar equals
6.59 Chinese Yuan

USD is crushing Yuan

----------


## Madison320

The Fed is still talking tough. Fischer expects 4 rate hikes in 2016 and Lacker said it may be MORE than 4!

----------


## presence



----------


## The Gold Standard

> The Fed is still talking tough. Fischer expects 4 rate hikes in 2016 and Lacker said it may be MORE than 4!


Either widespread inflation is on the way, or they are trying to engineer a crash so voters will look to candidates that will offer to take care of them.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The Fed is still talking tough. Fischer expects 4 rate hikes in 2016 and Lacker said it may be MORE than 4!


Fischer is probably the most hawkish member of the Fed on interest rates. Others are less certain about how many- if any- interest rate hikes may be needed this year. Even Fischer admits he does not know how many times the Fed may raise rates. 

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/06/news...ng-rate-hikes/




> Many Fed committee members are projecting four interest rate hikes this year. But *markets overall only believe there will be two.* That's a big gap in the investing world.
> 
> "The market is underestimating where we're going to be," Stanley Fischer, the Fed's vice chair, told CNBC Tuesday morning. "We think that they're too low."
> In December, the Fed set it's short term interest rate at 0.25% and forecast that rates could be at 1.25% in a year.
> 
> But not Wall Street -- most see the rate go up to 0.75% at best.
> 
> With fears about China's slowdown back on the rise, and North Korea's alleged hydrogen bomb test, markets are increasingly on edge. Those concerns may dim investor's outlook on future Fed rate hikes.
> 
> ...

----------


## angelatc

> *
> Maybe we should have an old people subforum where all the text is in this size and font.  In addition to getting the point across in a loud way to the average reader, your making grandma and granpas stay more comfortable.
> *



Because insulting "you're" target "audience's" always a great idea.

----------


## wizardwatson

> Because insulting "you're" target "audience's" always a great idea.


Not always.  Just until I'm old.

----------


## presence

> *GTFO of Stock Market*

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## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

Biggest losses at the start of a year, but certainly not their biggest losses in history.  DOW is down about five percent for the year so far. Ten percent would be considered a "correction".

----------


## devil21

^^^^^^^^^

----------


## Zippyjuan



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## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

China market up today (2%), US market fairly flat so far on the day- strong jobs report for December raised possibility that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates.  




> *China closes 2% higher but other markets fall after US jobs data* 
> 
> Investors have been buoyed by the Peoples Bank of Chinas decision to boost the yuan for the first time in nine days. US jobs showed stronger than expected growth, prompting rate hike talk
> 
> US adds 292,000 jobs in December
> European stocks are rallying a little
> Chinese market recovers
> Nerves settled as China bolsters yuan

----------


## The Gold Standard

Dead cat bounce.

----------


## presence

*China Halts Trading as Stocks Tumble 7 Percent in 29 Minutes*
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/bu...fall.html?_r=0

----------


## presence

> The start of the new year has been nothing short of dreadful for the  global markets, due to a "when it rains, it pours" convergence of  geopolitical, macroeconomic and commodity risks. It's a storm headlined  by the complete and utter structural breakdown in the Chinese markets, which has sent vicious shock waves across each and every global market.


http://www.thestreet.com/story/13417...o-play-it.html

----------


## Zippyjuan

> *China Halts Trading as Stocks Tumble 7 Percent in 29 Minutes*
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/bu...fall.html?_r=0


That was two day ago. Market up 2% today.

----------


## presence

> That was two day ago. Market up 2% today.

----------


## angelatc

> 



Stop posting this!  Dear Leader wants us to celebrate the creation of the low-paying jobs !

Seriously, the market is overinflated because interest rates are too low.  Still.  Obviously we need to raise the minimum wage.

----------


## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

Cheap oil prices are putting a lot of pressure on countries who rely on oil for a large part of their revenues- like Russia and Venezuela and Mexico and Brazil and even Saudi Arabia- though they are better able to afford it than the other countries on that list. 

https://www.rt.com/business/328432-c...ssian-economy/




> According to Russian Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev, $40 oil doesn’t threaten the stability of Russia's economy, but won’t allow GDP, production and consumer demand to turn positive.
> 
> He expects volatility in oil prices in the first half of 2016. However, $50-55 per barrel in the next year seems realistic, Ulyukaev added.
> 
> Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that 2016 will be decisive for oil. According to him,* a lot of oil producers will be unable to sustain $40 oil and will be forced to cut production to stabilize the price.*
> 
> “Everyone is playing for himself. Saudi Arabia is cutting prices. Iran is returning to the oil market. We have to live through this difficult year,” said Siluanov.
> 
> *Russia expects to get 3,165 rubles per each barrel of exported oil. With Brent at $40 and ruble at 70 per dollar, the Russian economy will lose about 350 rubles, or $4-5 on every barrel. To cover this deficit, the Finance Ministry may be forced to turn to the Reserve Fund.
> ...


If prices stay this low for a couple of more years, Russia may run out of financial reserves.

----------


## fatjohn

Interesting. Those reserves are treasuries right?
China also in need to sell them.

Also with everybody and their mom shouting that they expect 1x dollar oil it is clear to me that 1) this trade is getting crowded. 2) these prices are unsustainable for mahjor players if one has a long term horizon. Petrobras is close to dying for example.

What is a good way to expose yourself? Exxon, chevron and conocophilips havent fallen much. Shell and total a bit more. Gazprom and petrobras have been annihilated but at least petrobras could go belly up.

----------


## KingNothing

> 


So, low oil prices are bad now?

----------


## KingNothing

"OH MY GOD, THE WORLD IS GOING TO END TODAY!" - This thread, every day.

Eventually the market will fall, and hard, and the doomsday folks will say "see, I told you!" as if market booms and busts aren't regular occurrences.

----------


## devil21

> So, low oil prices are bad now?


Bad for petrodollar standard, yes.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Interesting. Those reserves are treasuries right?
> China also in need to sell them.
> 
> Also with everybody and their mom shouting that they expect 1x dollar oil it is clear to me that 1) this trade is getting crowded. 2) these prices are unsustainable for mahjor players if one has a long term horizon. Petrobras is close to dying for example.
> 
> What is a good way to expose yourself? Exxon, chevron and conocophilips havent fallen much. Shell and total a bit more. Gazprom and petrobras have been annihilated but at least petrobras could go belly up.



The fund is invested in "low yield foreign securities" of which 45% are said to be US securities- along with 45% in Euro investments and the remaining 10% in UK Pounds. They are held in foreign currency to protect against currency fluctuations of the Ruble. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stabil...ian_Federation

In December the fund was reported to be worth $49.2 billion which would mean about $20 billion in US securities in that fund.  They hold Treasuries in other funds too- as of October, about $80 billion worth in total. http://www.reuters.com/article/russi...13Q02D20151210

----------


## Zippyjuan

> So, low oil prices are bad now?


Bad for the producer of oil and the companies who supply them.  As well as the governments who rely on oil revenues to pay their bills (like Alaska in the US or Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil- Saudi Arabia is said to have enough excess cash to be able to hold out for five more years at current prices- some think they are trying to drive other producers out- such as US fracking companies which need about $60 a barrel to be economically feasable- to gain more market share for themselves in the future).

----------


## KingNothing

> Bad for the producer of oil and the companies who supply them.  As well as the governments who rely on oil revenues to pay their bills (like Alaska in the US or Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil- Saudi Arabia is said to have enough excess cash to be able to hold out for five more years at current prices- some think they are trying to drive other producers out- such as US fracking companies which need about $60 a barrel to be economically feasable- to gain more market share for themselves in the future).


Right but there is no universal good or bad.  "OH MY GOD, OIL PRICES DROPPED!" also means that other industries benefit from the small increase in disposable income of consumers, the lower cost to transport goods, and cheaper travel.  Some companies and countries gain, others lose.  This obviously isn't directed at you.  You're smart.  It's the others that don't really seem to grasp this.

And what do people who harp about the petrodollar being impacted by this want?  When oil prices rise it is "OH MY GOD, OIL PRICES ROSE!" and the dollar and all of western society is at risk.

Give it up already.  You don't know what is going to happen.  No one does.  All you can hope for is that governments, the Fed, and corporations react in a measured manner and never do anything dramatic, and that you can spot a market inefficiency or two for some investments to go along with your basket of stocks/funds/commodities/bonds/etc

----------


## ILUVRP

i have said many times on this forum crude oil should be around $40/ba and gasoline around $1.70/ga , now over 200 million drivers are getting a break as are farmers/truckers and our defense dept .

everything w/o outside forces will reach equilibrium , now would be a good time for our goverment to buy crude and store it as they were when oil was 80-100/ba.

the low prices will also slow down money given to the bad guys of the world , isis has control of 40% of iraq oil , bomb their oil fields and not the trucks .

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/14/inve...ps-200-points/




> *Dow jumps 228 points. Best day since early December*
> 
> Maybe the financial world isn't coming to an end after all.
> 
> After the worst start to a year and falling into a correction, the stock market finally showed signs of life.
> 
> The Dow jumped 228 points on Thursday, its best day since early December. The S&P 500 advanced 1.7%, while the Nasdaq rose 2%.
> 
> The gains were fueled by financial markets in China calming down, a slight gain in beaten-down crude oil prices and hopes the Federal Reserve may delay its plans to raise interest rates further. *Market analysts said a rebound was bound to happen eventually as pessimism about stocks got too extreme.*
> ...

----------


## dannno

> http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/14/inve...ps-200-points/

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


Some cats can really bounce.  The "dead cat" in 2011 bounced about 6,000 points (about 50%) by 2014.

But I do like that a one or two day decline becomes "This Is It!  The Big One (Crash) has begun!" and an up day is "dead cat bounce".

The "biggest EVER drop at the start of the Year" is currently down a "massive" six percent.

----------


## devil21

> Some cats can really bounce.  The "dead cat" in 2011 bounced about 6,000 points (about 50%) by 2014.
> 
> But I do like that a one or two day decline becomes "This Is It!  The Big One (Crash) has begun!" and an up day is "dead cat bounce".
> 
> The "biggest EVER drop at the start of the Year" is currently down a "massive" six percent.


Come on Zip, you damn well know practically every voice worth listening to in the financial world is saying 2016 will be brutal on all markets.  The chorus is louder by the day and even heavy hitters are calling it.  Dunno about anyone else but this daily back-and-forth about up and down days (while the trend is clearly toward the _down_) is a waste of my time.  The only thing that could reverse the down trend is another public Fed QE announcement.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Yes, everybody "knows" this year will suck big time. Run for the exits! 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ec...0US1UG20160114




> The *poll of over 90 economists* found the *U.S. economy will grow 2.5 percent in 2016, the same as predicted for 2015* and down from the 2.8 percent they were expecting a year ago - a decent pace but not enough to generate a strong rebound in inflation.
> 
> "U.S. economic growth appears to have shifted to a lower gear in the final months of 2015," noted Northern Trust economists Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore.
> 
> "It has left many concerned about the well-being of the economy and raised questions about the Federal Reserve's recent hike of the policy rate," they wrote, stressing that this does not reflect "a widespread deceleration of economic activity."
> 
> While growth this year is unlikely to be spectacular, *respondents only saw a 15 percent chance of the economy sliding into a recession*. A majority of those who answered an additional question said they expect the current business cycle to come to an end in the next two to three years.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/billcone...0b6644f81943f4




> *Global Economic Forecast 2016-2017*
> 
> The global economy is poised for economic growth comparable to recent years’ performance, but with a somewhat different texture. European countries will do a bit better, Asian countries just a hair worse, and natural resource-based economies much worse.
> 
> Last month the International Monetary Fund released their World Economic Outlook, which provides a middle-of-the-road starting place for looking at the global economy. The IMF expects the world overall to expand in 2016 by 3.6 percent inflation adjusted, up from this year’s estimated 3.1 percent growth. Both advanced and emerging economies contribute to the improvement.Global Economic Growth
> 
> Europe is slated for moderate growth, 1.9 percent measured by GDP. Given the minimal population growth rate for the Continent, this is pretty decent but not booming. Industrial activity edged down earlier this year but has since recovered most of the lost ground. Although the deal with Greece merely papered over fundamental problems, the major economies will continue unscathed.
> 
> Here in North America, look for growth about in pace with last year’s. The United States economic outlook was described in my recent Economic Forecast 2016-2017. Canada will grow a bit more slowly than the U.S. due to its concentration in oil and other commodities. Mexican economic growth is solid, with low inflation and low unemployment. The country’s prospects are good.
> ...


Eventually there will be another downturn and you will proclaim: "See! I was right all along" while ignoring all the years it did not happen.

I believe it was you declaring that the BRICs were going to bury the US economically.  That we were done for and they were the new powers.  Today they are the struggling countries and we are improving.

----------


## devil21

^^^^^^^^^

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## presence



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## presence



----------


## presence

> VIX represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

----------


## presence



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## presence



----------


## presence

*The Economist*




> *Buttonwood*
> 
> *Picnic for the bears*
> 
> *Fears of deflation and recession hit markets*
> 
>                       Jan 16th 2016                           | From the print edition 
> 
> 
> ...


http://www.economist.com/news/financ...s-picnic-bears

----------


## presence

Actually, we are talking about soup kitchens and widespread blackouts, kid yourself not.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


Walmart considering closing 269 stores globally out of 11,600- not as scary as the Drudge headline makes it sound. Hardly a collapse.  http://news.walmart.com/news-archive...lio-management




> In total, the impacted stores represent* less than 1 percent of both global square footage and revenue*.

----------


## angelatc

> Walmart considering closing 269 stores globally out of 11,600- not as scary as the Drudge headline makes it sound. Hardly a collapse.  http://news.walmart.com/news-archive...lio-management


Yes, but coming on the heels of what appears to be a massively disappointing Christmas season, it's bad news.  

A friend of mine who works in gas and oil just attended a company meeting that started out with the owner explaining that this has been the worst year they've had in the 37 years they have existed.  It went downhill from there.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Oil is tough and getting worse as the price continues to fall. Most fracking needs around $60 a barrel to continue.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence



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## presence



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## presence



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## presence



----------


## jkr

quoteth the zero hedge...
*BTFD!*

----------


## presence

still too early don't touch it

----------


## rg17

Ron Paul is right once again!

----------


## loveshiscountry

> Oil is tough and getting worse as the price continues to fall. Most fracking needs around $60 a barrel to continue.


July 2015
_Just-reported second quarter profit reported by the three giant integrated oil companies in the Standard & Poor's 500   Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY)  fell to $4.9 billion_

Oh no, only 4.9 billion. 

Jan 12, 2016
_Exxon Mobil (XOM). The company is expected to report net income of $16.3 billion in calendar 2015,_ 

Boo $#@!ing hoo

----------


## presence

*SUNDAY CRASH IN MIDDLE EAST*


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/o...s-oil-war.html

----------


## devil21

> July 2015
> _Just-reported second quarter profit reported by the three giant integrated oil companies in the Standard & Poor's 500   Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY)  fell to $4.9 billion_
> 
> Oh no, only 4.9 billion. 
> 
> Jan 12, 2016
> _Exxon Mobil (XOM). The company is expected to report net income of $16.3 billion in calendar 2015,_ 
> 
> Boo $#@!ing hoo


Related:
*Dallas Fed has instructed banks to not mark-to-market energy company loan losses*
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ot-force-shale

Buying a little time for connected insiders to get out before SHTF???

----------


## presence

That's the Saudi Index (TASI); the move is like a 1000 point swing in the DJIA.

----------


## rg17

I'm expecting the stocks to continue to plummet this week and beyond!

----------


## Madison320

> I'm expecting the stocks to continue to plummet this week and beyond!


If it does the Fed will start hinting about less rate hikes. If that doesn't work they'll hint about no rate hikes, then rate cuts, then QE.

They're trying to hold things together until after the election. I'd love to hear the phone calls between Fed officials and Democratic Party officials right now. Not that Republicans wouldn't be doing the same thing if they were in power.

----------


## brandon

> 


lol strange seeing this posted here. This is my company. Have a bunch of stock that vests in a couple weeks.  This dip isn't too far out of the norm though, the stock has been floating in the 25-35 range for the last couple years. 

The quarterly filing did beat the street estimate, and we still have huge margins, so not sure why the market reacted negatively. I guess lower projections for 2016.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Ah the Recession Porn.  Interesting to again note that when stocks are up, it is because statistics are fake and either the Fed or the PPT is pumping up the market because "they cannot allow it to go down".  Stocks decline and it is suddenly not just due to facts but "proof" that the economic END IS NEAR!  PANIC! RUN FOR THE EXITS!  BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES! Worst recession ever is coming! 

Stocks are down about eight percent for the year.  Not even a "correction" yet.  And declines are only in stock prices and the price of oil.  Unemployment is not rising.  Prices are not inflating.  Corporate profits are not collapsing.

----------


## smokemonsc

> lol strange seeing this posted here. This is my company. Have a bunch of stock that vests in a couple weeks.  This dip isn't too far out of the norm though, the stock has been floating in the 25-35 range for the last couple years. 
> 
> The quarterly filing did beat the street estimate, and we still have huge margins, so not sure why the market reacted negatively. I guess lower projections for 2016.


Intel is (still) a pretty solid buy and hold stock.  I got lucky and bought some back in 2009 but have since sold it to reinvest in to other projects.  Would buy it again.  It's dividend yield/history was the main attraction for me.

----------


## presence

> Stocks are down about eight percent for the year.  Not even a "correction" yet.


Corrections are measured from the peak of the previous movement not the beginning of the year.     This is no doubt a correction now since the May high.

----------


## Zippyjuan

The movement pretty much started in January- not May. But again, the decline has basically been in stocks and oil and not the overall economy.

----------


## wizardwatson

> The movement pretty much started in January- not May. But again, the decline has basically been in stocks and oil and not the overall economy.


If you look at the trendline, I don't think it's unreasonable for the DOW to bottom around 8,000.  It was around there in Feb '09.  

What exactly do you consider the "overall economy"?  I mean, to me, I always felt the markets were detached from fundamentals as a rule anyway.  It's mostly a bankers game.  And what is the overall economy?  War?  Consumerism?

DOW has breached September lows as of today.  By almost 100 points.

----------


## Madison320

> What exactly do you consider the "overall economy"?


According to Zippy, the only indicator of the economy is jobs. We could all be digging holes and filling them in and the economy would be great according to the Zipster.

Personally I don't think there's any one measurement. I look at the trade deficit, the budget deficit, GDP, stocks, wages, and also jobs and other things. Pretty much everything is down except for jobs, which is a lagging indicator.

----------


## wizardwatson

> According to Zippy, the only indicator of the economy is jobs. We could all be digging holes and filling them in and the economy would be great according to the Zipster.
> 
> Personally I don't think there's any one measurement. I look at the trade deficit, the budget deficit, GDP, stocks, wages, and also jobs and other things. Pretty much everything is down except for jobs, which is a lagging indicator.


Well, hopefully Zippy is right.  Then the Fed can just enact QE4 and pay us all to spend money.  We'll all have money.  And we'll all have jobs.  QE4 will be super awesome.

----------


## wizardwatson

At -480, if DOW closed now it would take spot #19 for largest one day point drop.

----------


## Madison320

> Well, hopefully Zippy is right.  Then the Fed can just enact QE4 and pay us all to spend money.  We'll all have money.  And we'll all have jobs.  QE4 will be super awesome.


We'll have money but no stuff!

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> According to Zippy, the only indicator of the economy is jobs. We could all be digging holes and filling them in and the economy would be great according to the Zipster.


Why go to the hassle of digging the holes. They just fake the jobs numbers.

100% unemployment over a long enough period drops everyone off the actively seeking list and magically you have 100% employment.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> Well, hopefully Zippy is right.  Then the Fed can just enact QE4 and pay us all to spend money.  We'll all have money.  And we'll all have jobs.  QE4 will be super awesome.


Attachment 4747

----------


## brandon

> Why go to the hassle of digging the holes. They just fake the jobs numbers.
> 
> 100% unemployment over a long enough period drops everyone off the actively seeking list and magically you have 100% employment.


You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.


 It's an example.

Does someone raising kids, cleaning the house, and doing laundry have a job? How about someone who grows food and hunts on their own land? How about someone who volunteers at the SPCA?

----------


## Danke

> You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.





Whoosh

----------


## Zippyjuan

> According to Zippy, the only indicator of the economy is jobs. We could all be digging holes and filling them in and the economy would be great according to the Zipster.
> 
> Personally I don't think there's any one measurement. I look at the trade deficit, the budget deficit, GDP, stocks, wages, and also jobs and other things. Pretty much everything is down except for jobs, which is a lagging indicator.


Trade deficit is not necessarily a good economic indicator.  If you are a wealthy country you may demand more goods from your trading partners than they demand from you. Neither is a budget deficit. We have run a budget deficit for most of the last 70 years.  Does that mean that we have had a bad economy for the last 70 years?  

What about GDP? (we have already looked at jobs) GDP will tend to rise with population so lets look at per capita GDP. 

Last Few years: 


Longer Term (real GDP means GDP adjusted for the effects of price inflation so it cannot be blamed on rising prices of things):

----------


## Zippyjuan

DOW up triple digits. Oil price stabilizing. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/21/us-markets.html

----------


## presence

> *Investors beware: These corporate bonds are a risk**About  $99 billion of high yield energy bonds are trading at distressed  prices. And experts say theyre now worth about 40 percent to 50 percent  less than that.* 	 					Bryan Borzykowski, special to CNBC.com 			
>  Wednesday, 20 Jan 2016 |  9:37  AM ETCNBC.com
> 
> 
> 
>       		      	     				 					    	 	 	 	   	         		                                             	    											 																		 	 					 						 						 						 						 						 						 				 			 									  As energy prices  fall below $28 a barrel, investors are understandably nervous about  their oil- and gas-related stocks. However, people should be paying  closer attention to another part of the energy market: corporate bonds.  
> 
> 
>  		  					Getty Images
> ...


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/inves...re-a-risk.html

----------


## Zippyjuan

Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?

What are your plans for dealing with the situation?

----------


## presence

> Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?
> 
> What are your plans for dealing with the situation?


I keep 6 months of rice and beans and plenty of bullets always, don't you?

----------


## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

> I keep 6 months of rice and beans and plenty of bullets always, don't you?


Ah- gas and guns!

----------


## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

Different take on same report:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobl...eek-1453383145




> *U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Up, But Remain Near Historic Lows*
> 
> _Data suggests a slightly increased number of layoffs, but still at levels indicating steady job growth_
> 
> WASHINGTON—The number of U.S. workers filing applications for jobless benefits has edged up early this year, suggesting a slightly increased number of layoffs even *though the overall level remains consistent with steady job creation.*
> 
> Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000 in the week ended Jan. 16, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the highest level since early July.
> 
> Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 277,000 new applications for jobless benefits last week.
> ...


your article noted: 



> Some or all of the increase in claims could stem from the end of the holiday season, when many companies hire and then let go temporary workers. Claims are usually quite volatile from Thanksgiving until the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/job...igh-2016-01-21

As for where we have been:

----------


## RonPaulIsGreat

I don't see how the economy can be healthy with commodity prices so low across the board. China blowing up will drag the world down with it. It's not like we have isolated economies anymore.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Energy		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Crude oil	
CL1
30.48	 0.71	2.38 %	2.4 %	-19.7 %	-34.4 %	23:33	
Brent crude oil	
CO1
30.23	 0.97	3.32 %	3.5 %	-19.8 %	-36.7 %	23:33	
Natural gas	
NG1
2.1420	 0.022	-1.02 %	0.6 %	1.7 %	-26.9 %	23:33	
Gasoline	
XB1
1.0775	 0.0161	1.52 %	-0.8 %	-9.8 %	-20.0 %	23:33	
Heating oil	
HO1
0.9349	 0.0135	1.47 %	-2.7 %	-21.5 %	-43.3 %	23:33	
Ethanol	
DL1
1.37	 0.00	0.00 %	1.0 %	-1.7 %	-4.0 %	Jan/22	
Metals		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Gold	
XAUUSD
1,099.69	 1.20	-0.11 %	1.0 %	2.7 %	-15.6 %	Jan/22	
Silver	
XAGUSD
14.09	 0.01	0.07 %	1.2 %	-1.6 %	-22.1 %	Jan/22	
Platinum	
XPTUSD
821.90	 4.52	0.55 %	-0.9 %	-5.5 %	-35.7 %	Jan/22	
Palladium	
XPDUSD
503.75	 3.80	0.76 %	2.5 %	-9.0 %	-34.2 %	Jan/22	
Agricultural		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Cotton	
CT1
62.35	 0.26	0.42 %	1.5 %	-0.7 %	8.9 %	Jan/22	
Corn	
C 1
367.25	 1.00	0.27 %	1.1 %	3.3 %	0.5 %	Jan/22	
Soybeans	
S 1
880.50	 1.75	0.20 %	0.3 %	1.1 %	-8.7 %	Jan/22	
Wheat	
W 1
472.50	 2.50	-0.53 %	-0.1 %	0.9 %	-12.2 %	Jan/22	
Rice	
RR1
11.00	 0.15	1.38 %	2.5 %	0.9 %	-1.4 %	Jan/22	
Canola	
RS1
481.80	 1.70	-0.35 %	-0.6 %	-1.2 %	6.9 %	Jan/22	
Rubber	
JN1
160.30	 3.70	2.36 %	3.4 %	-5.0 %	-16.9 %	Jan/22	
Cocoa	
CC1
2855.00	 45	1.60 %	-0.1 %	-10.7 %	-3.8 %	Jan/21	
Orange Juice	
JO1
120.70	 0.65	0.54 %	-7.3 %	-17.1 %	-17.6 %	Jan/21	
Coffee	
KC1
114.10	 1.9	1.69 %	-4.2 %	-5.1 %	-27.0 %	Jan/21	
Lumber	
LB1
239.30	 0.90	0.38 %	-3.7 %	-11.0 %	-23.3 %	Jan/21	
Oat	
O 1
204.25	 0.5	0.25 %	2.8 %	-7.9 %	-37.1 %	Jan/22	
Wool	
OL1
1,289.00	 6.00	0.47 %	0.6 %	1.9 %	22.7 %	Jan/20	
Sugar	
SB1
14.45	 0.25	1.76 %	-2.8 %	-3.5 %	-9.6 %	Jan/21	
Livestock		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Feeder Cattle	
FC1
152.80	 0.00	0.00 %	1.3 %	-4.3 %	-25.9 %	Jan/22	
Live Cattle	
LC1
130.75	 2.23	1.74 %	0.0 %	5.0 %	-14.5 %	Jan/21	
Lean Hogs	
LH1
68.40	 0.00	0.00 %	3.0 %	20.8 %	-6.1 %	Jan/22	
Beef	
BEEF
10.21	 0.04	-0.39 %	-0.1 %	1.8 %	13.6 %	Jan/20	
Industrial		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Copper	
HG1
2.00	 0.00	0.05 %	2.8 %	-6.0 %	-22.6 %	Jan/22	
Iron Ore	
IRONORE
41.10	 1.00	-2.38 %	3.8 %	2.2 %	-38.2 %	Jan/20	
Lead	
LMPBDS03
1,609.50	 25.00	-1.53 %	-1.4 %	-6.0 %	-15.6 %	Jan/20	
Molybdenum	
LMMLDS03
11,750.00	 100.00	0.86 %	0.9 %	0.0 %	-42.0 %	Jan/20	
Nickel	
LMNIDS03
8,518.00	 45.00	-0.53 %	-0.3 %	-0.9 %	-43.1 %	Jan/20	
Aluminum	
LMAHDS03
1,479.50	 9.50	0.65 %	0.3 %	-4.1 %	-20.6 %	Jan/21	
Tin	
LMSNDS03
13,580.00	 200.00	1.49 %	2.1 %	-7.1 %	-30.3 %	Jan/21	
Zinc	
LMZSDS03
1,509.00	 26.50	1.79 %	2.8 %	-3.0 %	-29.3 %	Jan/21	
Coal	
COAL
49.00	 0.15	0.31 %	-0.4 %	-5.9 %	-21.4 %	Jan/20	
Cobalt	
COBALT
23,750.00	 0.00	0.00 %	0.0 %	-2.1 %	-23.3 %	Jan/20	
Steel	
STEEL
210.00	 0.00	0.00 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	-57.1 %	Jan/20	
Index		Actual	Change	Daily	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date	
Baltic Dry	
BALTIC
358.00	 5.00	-1.38 %	-6.5 %	-24.5 %	-53.5 %	Jan/20	
CRB Index	
CRB
156.81	 3.17	-1.98 %	-4.2 %	-9.1 %	-30.2 %	Jan/20	
GSCI Index	
GSCI
278.04	 6.23	2.29 %	-3.1 %	-8.8 %	-29.0 %	Jan/21

----------


## oyarde

> Just curious- if the End IS Near have you taken all of your money out of banks and investments and are keeping just cash and gold at home? Closed all accounts?
> 
> What are your plans for dealing with the situation?


Well , just as a precaution , I did close out some accounts and pay off all the debt earlier this yr and am making more arrows , spears and counting shotgun shells.The Tomahawks are already sharp .

----------


## idiom

> You think 100% of people would give up on doing anything productive with their lives? That's a pretty sad outlook. I think the majority of people are more driven than that.


That is the entire point of Atlas shrugged. And Animal farm. The pigs are betting on people not quitting.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Another triple digit rise again today- 200 points on the DOW. The end is near.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Well , just as a precaution , I did close out some accounts and pay off all the debt earlier this yr and am making more arrows , spears and counting shotgun shells.The Tomahawks are already sharp .


Out of debt is a good thing.

----------


## brandon

The crash has ended! BUY BUY BUY!!!!

----------


## angelatc

> That is the entire point of Atlas shrugged. And Animal farm. The pigs are betting on people not quitting.


I would not be so sure about that.  I heard an interview on NPR with a venture capitalist who thought that it would be great for society if the government handed everyone a guaranteed income.  That way, people who wanted to stay home and play video games could do that, and the demand for better games would spur the creators at a faster rate than if those fine folks actually had to, you know, work for the money to buy the games.

And Paul Ryan spoke highly of the idea too.

----------


## presence



----------


## The Gold Standard

> 


Nonsense. Look at unemployment filings. Just because the only reason they aren't 10 times what they are is because most of the country used theirs all up years ago. Still, it means the economy is strong. The Fed saved us.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Article notes:



> Stubbs said that macro strategists at Citi forecast that the dollar would weaken in 2016 and that oil prices were likely bottoming, potentially providing some light at the end of the tunnel.
> 
> "The death spiral is in nobody's interest. Rational behavior, most likely, will prevail," he said in the report.

----------


## kfarnan

> Nonsense. Look at unemployment filings. Just because the only reason they aren't 10 times what they are is because most of the country used theirs all up years ago. Still, it means the economy is strong. The Fed saved us.



Is that sarcasm?

----------


## oyarde

Well , best I can tell , the Nascrap is at a low not seen since 2014 . Kind of hard to put a positive spin on that . I do not have much of that stuff of course .

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/bu...ates.html?_r=0




> *Wages Rise as U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%*
> By NELSON D. SCHWARTZFEB. 5, 2016
> 
> Is the American worker finally getting a raise?
> 
> After years of scant real gains despite steadily falling unemployment and healthy hiring, wages picked up significantly last month, a sign the job market could be tightening enough to force companies to pay more to attract and retain employees.
> 
> The half a percentage point increase in average hourly earnings in January was the brightest spot in a generally positive Labor Department report on Friday, which showed job creation slowing from the white-hot pace of late 2015 even as the unemployment rate fell to an eight-year low of 4.9 percent.
> 
> ...


More at link.

----------


## devil21

Futures are TANKING!  4:57am

----------


## kfarnan

Look out below..
*DOW JONES INDU AVERAGE INDEX(Dow Jones Global Indexes:INDU)
*Add to Watch List
Set Alert


15,880.70Real-Time QuoteAs of 12:40pm ET

 -324.27 / -2.00%Today’s Change
15,370
TODAY|||52-Week Range
18,351

-8.78%Year-to-Date



1 day3 days5 days1 month3 month6 monthYTD1 year3 year5 year

 Daily market report
Chart

----------


## wizardwatson

> Look out below..
> *DOW JONES INDU AVERAGE INDEX(Dow Jones Global Indexes:INDU)
> *Add to Watch List
> Set Alert
> 
> 
> 15,880.70Real-Time QuoteAs of 12:40pm ET
> 
>  -324.27 / -2.00%Today’s Change
> ...


The 3:30 ramp strikes again.  Closes down only 177 after being down almost 400.

----------


## presence



----------


## devil21

> The 3:30 ramp strikes again.  Closes down only 177 after being down almost 400.


It starts exactly on the nose at 3pm daily when the PPT computers kick on.
--------
Deutsche Bank collapse rumors swirling.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-its-liquidity

----------


## oyarde

> 


Hard to believe anyone holding those .

----------


## presence



----------


## devil21

> Hard to believe anyone holding those .


Goldman, sure.  Goldman will never collapse.  They CAUSE collapses, they don't collapse.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> It starts exactly on the nose at 3pm daily when the PPT computers kick on.
> --------
> Deutsche Bank collapse rumors swirling.
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-its-liquidity


Who are in this PPT buying up stocks?  How many $millions to they have to buy a day to move the market?  NASDAQ trades $100 billion in shares a day.  Why do they only buy at certain times and not every time stocks go down one cent so stock prices always rise and everybody gets rich? Why did they allow the 2007 crash to occur? 

(noting that when stocks go down it is "because things really suck" and when markets stop going down or go up it is "manipulation").

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/...ction-team.asp




> DEFINITION of 'Plunge Protection Team - PPT'
> A colloquial name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. *The Plunge Protection Team was created to make financial and economic recommendations to various sectors of the economy in times of economic turbulence.* The team consists of the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
> 
> "Plunge Protection Team" was the nickname given to the Working Group by The Washington Post in 1997. The team was initially perceived by some to have been created solely to shore up the markets or even manipulate them. The team was created in response to the 1987 market crash.


Noting that the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve own no stocks so they are not buying shares to prop up stock markets.

----------


## devil21

^^^^
Most answers to your questions lead simply to the "Exchange Stabilization Fund".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchan...ilization_Fund

An interesting and very important history behind the ESF.  Hmm...."Emergency Banking Act of 1933"....sounds important.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

> "I don't think there's too much selling at all. I think there's going to  be even more selling going on," the founder and publisher of "The  Gartman Letter" told CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" Thursday. "Sovereign funds are in the process of liquidating. They have no choice."


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/11/i-hat...e-gartman.html

----------


## rg17

> 


Oil plunges down below $27 again.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

> Sweden’s central bank, worried about a long period of low inflation, on  Thursday decided to cut its key interest
> 
> 
> *to a record -0.50%,* 
> 
> 
> and didn’t  rule out further action.


http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/...ellen-remarks/

----------


## presence

The morg down 2.5 prebell

----------


## presence



----------


## oyarde

I will clean up on adult diapers for sure .

----------


## Madison320

It's going to be really annoying when the conservative media and republican politicians finally notice the falling economic conditions. They're going to act like they've been warning about it all along, despite the fact they they're part of the problem and had no idea it was coming.

----------


## puppetmaster

Here come negative interest rates

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Here come negative interest rates


That idea's being rapidly discredited (I mean in establishment circles, obviously it was already discredited among sane economists). 

I was watching Bloomberg late last night, covering the European carnage, and a top analyst from Morgan Stanley (or JP Morgan?) was talking about this.

He pointed out (correctly) that NIRP in Japan and now Sweden has been an absolute failure, if the goal was to devalue those currencies. 

On announcement of NIRP, the yen/krona plunged, but then came right back and even strengthened relative their original position. 

Why? His explanation (which makes sense to me) was that while NIRP made investing in a country less attractive, creating selling pressure on the currency, it simultaneously weakened the banks, which caused a risk-off move out of stocks et al and into government bonds, thus pushing the currency right back up.* Here's the important part*: this guy, who is very much plugged into the banking elite, suggested that the next step should be for CBs to start monetizing private assets (i.e. stocks and corporate bonds, instead of government bonds).  Unfortunately, as I think we all know, the PTB aren't going to allow this malinvestment to liquidate, they're going to keep subsidizing it, and if they can't push traditional QE much further, and if NIRP doesn't achieve their goals, I'm sure they will start monetizing private assets (this has already been happening on a small scale in some countries).

----------


## wizardwatson

> Here come negative interest rates


I don't know, last I heard Yellen was floating propaganda about "not sure about legality of negative interest rates".  

Don't know if it will happen here, surely not soon I would imagine.

Interesting day though.  I believe this is the first day we've closed below the Aug 25th low of 15666.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> I believe this is the first day we've closed below the Aug 25th low of 15666.


Yup, been watching that for a long time.

...look out below.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

> *Stock Market Crash: This Chart Shows Big Losses Ahead for Equities* *Here’s How a Stock Market Crash Could Happen* If you are bullish on equities, it may be time to pause and reflect. We could be headed for a stock market crash.
>  As dire as it may sound, 2016 could be the year when the stock market sees massive losses—just like 2008 and 2009.
>  Going forward, remember the most basic principle of technical  analysis: the trend is your friend until it’s broken. Sadly, as it  stands, key stock indices have broken below the trend that began in  2009.
>  Please see the chart below of the S&P 500 and pay close attention to the circled area.
>  The S&P 500 has broken below the trend that began in 2009. As  this is happening, we see the volume surging (circled area at the  bottom). Saying the least, volume increasing as the long-term trend  breaks is something that should be taken very seriously. It says that  investors are quickly running for the exits—and they are nervous.
>  _Chart courtesy of_ _www.StockCharts.com_ If this wasn’t enough to convince you, then look at how investors’ bets against the stock markets are mounting higher each day.
>  Take a look at the chart below. It shows the amount of assets in the  bearish stock market funds. The higher the assets in the bearish funds,  the more pessimistic are investors.
>  _Chart courtesy of_ _www.StockCharts.com_ According to the chart above, it’s clear that bearish stock funds  have been gaining in popularity since September. In other words,  investors are turning _more_ pessimistic. Mind you, assets in these funds are at their highest level since 2012!
>  I begin with a question: can you point to one thing that has lead to  many of the biggest stock market crashes in history? I can—the  combination of nervousness, fear, and panic among investors.
> ...


http://www.profitconfidential.com/st...-for-equities/

----------


## presence

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/inve...l-price-crash/




> *The dramatic crash in oil prices has returned with a vengeance.*   U.S. crude futures dropped as much as 5% on Thursday, driving prices  below $27 for the second time in recent weeks. It settled at $26.21, the  lowest point since 2003. 
>    The steady decline is creating a  widespread headache for financial markets. It's causing energy  companies' profits to plunge, raising worries about the prospect of  bankruptcies in the oil sector and spooking investors about global  growth. In total, crude oil has plunged an incredible 75% from its June  2014 peak of almost $108. 
> Related: Stocks sink following oil crash 
>    U.S. stock markets followed by declining sharply. The Dow fell as much  as 400-plus points and the Nasdaq moved closer to a bear market, or 20%  below its most recent high point. 
>   World markets also suffered. In Asia the Hang Seng (HSI) dropped nearly 4% Thursday, while the Nikkei (N225)  shed 2.3%. Major indexes in Europe were 1.5% to 3% lower after Sweden's  central bank pushed its key interest rate further into negative  territory at -0.5%. 
> Related: Fallout: Oil bankruptcies spike 379%

----------


## presence



----------


## presence



----------


## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


End of capitalism as we know it?  How many times has capitalism faced recessions? 

Article also notes:



> It would certainly be ridiculously premature, at this stage, to call a recession, let alone a financial crisis.


On the UK economy:



> Britain will noticeably outperform the EU this year: our labour market remains strong and our banks far better capitalised than many of their eurozone competitors, too many of which are still sitting on massive amounts of bad debt

----------


## presence



----------


## presence

* * 




> Markets                          |                      Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:28pm EST                       Related:                               Stocks,  Asian Markets,  Markets 
> *Nikkei dips below 15,000 for first time since Oct 2014*
> 
>                               TOKYO                 
>     Feb 12 Japan's Nikkei share average fell below the psychologically important mark of 15,000 for the first time in 16 months, as the dollar dived to a 15-month low against the yen.
> 
> The Nikkei fell as much as 4.6 percent to trade at 14,992.14 in early morning trade, the lowest level since October, 2014.
>                                The broader Topix dropped 3.5 percent to 1,221.03, and the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 declined 3.6 percent to 11,005.18.   (Reporting by Ayai Tomisawa; Editing by Chang-Ran Kim)


http://www.reuters.com/article/china...-idUSL3N15Q1MP



> Markets                          |                      Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:24am EST                       Related:                               Financials,  Industrials 
> *Hong Kong shares close down 4 pct in worst day since August*
> 
>                               HONG KONG                 
> 
>     Feb 11 Hong Kong shares plunged on Thursday led by mainland-related stocks, with the Hang Seng Index (.HSI) marking its worst daily performance since August as worries about the health of the global economy sparked a sell-off.
> 
> 
> Mainland markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday, while Hong Kong markets reopened after a three-day break for the same festival.
> ...

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


Article notes:



> There are* few signs yet that investors are dumping their holdings wholesale,* typically a mark of a market bottom, said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments in Atlanta.
> 
> "It *still seems to be focused on specific issues, whether it’s credit or it’s oil*. But clearly there is a more defensive tone that the market is taking and we’re watching for signs of capitulation," he said.

----------


## presence



----------


## presence



----------


## presence

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...interest-rates



> Economics        *
> 
> The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates*
> 
> 
>         23              Feb 11, 2016 4:11 PM EST                     By                                              Clive Crook                
> 
> 
>          When central banks start exploring strange new worlds, the results aren't always ideal.
> ...

----------


## presence

> *Yellen Says Fed Should Be Prepared to Use Negative Rates if Needed* *Fed leader also reiterates concerns about risks to the U.S. economy in Senate testimony*                                                                 By                          Jon Hilsenrath                          
> 
>      Updated Feb. 11, 2016 4:52 p.m. ET            Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Thursday said the U.S.  central bank is studying the feasibility of pushing short-term interest  rates into negative territory should it need to give the economy an  added boost.



http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-r...ony-1455203865

----------


## oyarde

What is the Dow down since May ? 15 percent ?

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> End of capitalism as we know it?  How many times has capitalism faced recessions?


It's not the recession that might destroy capitalism, it's the _political reaction_ to the recession. 

FDR 2.0

----------


## devil21

> It's not the recession that might destroy capitalism, it's the _political reaction_ to the recession. 
> 
> FDR 2.0


Capitalism?  Where?

I hope yall shorted Deutsche Bank back when I told you it was going Lehman 6 months ago.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Capitalism?  Where?


Yea, I know, but it can get worse; there can be even more regulations, even more socialized industries, even higher spending.taxes, etc.

----------


## Peter4Paul2016

The market will come back...  Too many people with too much power won't allow the market to stay down too long!  While the market's down, find an index fund that tracks the S&P - And put some in physical gold as a hedge.  (My opinion, still learning and not an expert!)

----------


## Zippyjuan

> http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-r...ony-1455203865


If things get really bad, they won't rule out the possibility of using them.  Doesn't mean they are seriously considering using them. They are still debating the timing of their next rate INCREASE.

----------


## Peter4Paul2016

A lot of people have been bullish on gold lately thanks to the uncertainty of the markets... Interesting contrarian view on gold right now 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/denni...-buy-gold.html

----------


## Zippyjuan

> What is the Dow down since May ? 15 percent ?


As of this minute, the DOW is down eleven percent since one year ago. Year to date- about 8.5%. Since the start of this thread- 9%.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> If things get really bad, they won't rule out the possibility of using them.  Doesn't mean they are seriously considering using them. They are still debating the timing of their next rate INCREASE.


LOL

...that's exactly why stock/credit markets are plunging.

Zipster, the rate hike isn't coming. And if it does, the bubble bursts, so they'll have to drop rates again....

Within 3 months, the Fed will announce the next QE.

----------


## devil21

> LOL
> 
> ...that's exactly why stock/credit markets are plunging.
> 
> Zipster, the rate hike isn't coming. And if it does, the bubble bursts, so they'll have to drop rates again....
> 
> Within 3 months, the Fed will announce the next QE.


I heard some Harvard Kennedy School of Govt dude on CNBC yesterday talking about wanting to ban $100 bills.  Of course it's because of "Drugs" and "Terrorism" 

If they're talking about that (and have been for a while) then that means negative rates are very likely coming.  Can't have people pulling their money out of the bank in $100 denominations to avoid having it jacked by the banks.  Seems to me that negative rates also act as a quiet bail-in and even though NIRP is sold as a counter to deflation, by trying to spur spending, it actually is even more deflationary since more money is being removed from the economy by the banks themselves.

----------


## presence

With the amount of atm fees and overdraft fines that the average american shmuck pays to the bank, coupled with the ordinary miniscule savings, and decade of ongoing low rates means most people have probably had effective negative interest rates for years in their banking interaction.

----------


## kfarnan

955 trillion $ bubble?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/out-of-control-the-destructive-power-of-the-financial-markets-a-781590.html

----------


## ProIndividual

Gold shot up and now is falling like a stone in the futures...down below $1200 after being around $1250 on Thursday. The Dow is up in the futures like 270 points. These are major weekend moves. It bothers me, but not too much. Enough to post about it...put it like that.

The part that bothers me for now is the seeming bottom we keep bouncing off of at about 15,500 or whatever on the DOW. That 15% or so decline point has some significance, even if just psychological. But with all the high frequency trading, I can't imagine psychology is outweighing some technical aspect I'm daft to. Anyone got any ideas?

----------


## presence



----------


## Zippyjuan

With all this stock market crash talk going on one might be amazed to know that the DOW is about the same as it was a month ago. Year to Date is is down about seven percent.

Down 7.7% since the OP warning of a major crash underway. He recommended a highly leveraged anti- SP500 stock SPUX.  




> I *expect a valuation of 200+ by January*. When it breaks up it will happen almost instantly.


At the time, it was 32.  It has gone up- but only to 37 as of today.

----------


## The Gold Standard

> With all this stock market crash talk going on one might be amazed to know that the DOW is about the same as it was a month ago. Year to Date is is down about seven percent.


Prosperity is here to stay!

----------


## Zippyjuan

Gold has fallen considerably this week.  Just a few days ago (Feb 11th) it was up to $1248.  Now down to $1200.

----------


## brandon

This is all too much for me. I can never keep track of if we are crashing or not.

----------


## Zippyjuan

It's up. It's down. Down days get proclaimed as proof of crash. Up days get ignored. Mostly it is wiggling sideways for now.

----------


## oyarde

> Gold has fallen considerably this week.  Just a few days ago (Feb 11th) it was up to $1248.  Now down to $1200.


Ya know , I could work with 1200 or 1300 gold and a Dow at 1825 , 1.50 gasoline .Doubt it works out like that though for a long period .

----------


## sam1952

> With all this stock market crash talk going on one might be amazed to know that the DOW is about the same as it was a month ago. Year to Date is is down about seven percent.
> 
> Down 7.7% since the OP warning of a major crash underway. He recommended a highly leveraged anti- SP500 stock SPUX.  
> 
> 
> 
> At the time, it was 32.  It has gone up- but only to 37 as of today.



Actually I've been following this since his recommendation. Like you said it was 32 I remember it hitting 41 or so. Now at 37.98 I think. Still a 16 percent gain. Don't own it. Have considered it as a short term hedge though.

----------


## devil21

> This is all too much for me. I can never keep track of if we are crashing or not.


Whether you are crashing or not is up to you.  Don't tell anyone I told you that.

----------


## brandon

Buy buy buy!!!!!!!

----------


## Zippyjuan

Warning!  Stocks did NOT crash today!  (DOW up over 250 points).  SPUX lost nearly $2 a share (4.85%).

----------


## presence

spy 500 vs spxu 1 year


spy 500 5 year


spy 500 40 year

----------


## oyarde

I am hoping for a full recovery in the next six weeks so I can cash the rest out .

----------


## brandon

sell sell sell!

----------


## Zippyjuan

SPXU going to 200!  (today it is 33- only one point from the start of the thread).

----------


## oyarde

Excellent .I am cashing the rest out middle of next month , I hope for a 18200 Dow.

----------


## oyarde

> Gold shot up and now is falling like a stone in the futures...down below $1200 after being around $1250 on Thursday. The Dow is up in the futures like 270 points. These are major weekend moves. It bothers me, but not too much. Enough to post about it...put it like that.
> 
> The part that bothers me for now is the seeming bottom we keep bouncing off of at about 15,500 or whatever on the DOW. That 15% or so decline point has some significance, even if just psychological. But with all the high frequency trading, I can't imagine psychology is outweighing some technical aspect I'm daft to. Anyone got any ideas?


Gold is starting to look steady @ 1234 .

----------


## Madison320

Does this mean the rate hike is back on for March?

----------


## TheCount

> Does this mean the rate hike is back on for March?


I'd say it'll happen no matter what.

----------


## Madison320

> I'd say it'll happen no matter what.


My guess is about a 1% chance for March.

----------


## Zippyjuan

I don't think they will raise rates in March. Unemployment is where they like it and new jobless claims continue to fall but the energy sector uncertainty may have them put off the next raise.  There was speculation that the Fed would probably raise rates four times this year (which would be every three months) but I have said probably two or three. Energy has stabilized so if they don't raise rates at the March meeting they still could at the next meeting in April if nothing negative pops up.  They (the Open Market Committee) do not meet in May, August, and October.

----------


## oyarde

I think gold hits 1250 today .

----------


## devil21

Corporate stock buybacks coming to an end.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...110000062.html




> Since the beginning of the post-crisis bull-market run, the biggest buyer of equities hasn't been retail investors or institutions but companies themselves.
> 
> Companies have been supporting the stock market through buybacks for years.
> 
> But according to some analysts, the era of buybacks may be coming to a close.
> 
> And this could be terrible news for the stock market.
> Companies have been their own best friends
> 
> ...

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow...ear-2016-03-11''




> *Dow breaks above bullish chart level first time this year
> *
> 
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday above a key chart level for the first time this year,* which many technical analysts might view as an early sign suggesting the stock market’s downtrend could be over.*
> 
> The Dow DJIA, +1.28%  rose 218.18 points, or 1.3%, to 17,213.31, to close above the widely watched 200-day moving average line, which currently extends to 17,153.23, according to FactSet. That marks the first close above the line since Dec. 30. See Market Snapshot.
> 
> The S&P 500 index SPX, +1.64%  used a final-hour rally to join the Dow industrials by closing at 2,022.19, which was above its 200-day moving average of 2,019.92, also for the first time this year.
> 
> ...

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/17/inve...dow-jones-oil/




> *Dow turns positive for year: Erases 2,000-point plunge*
> 
> The Dow turned positive for the year on Thursday, erasing a scary start to the year that at one point had the index down as much as 1,974 points in just the first three weeks of 2016.
> 
> The remarkable rebound has been driven by a spike in oil prices and fading fears of a possible recession in the U.S. Oil has returned to $40 a barrel and the U.S. economy continues to grow, despite the global slowdown.
> 
> But just a few weeks ago the markets were in full meltdown mode, with many predicting the bull market was on its death bed.
> 
> *"That marked the zenith of panic. The market traded to extremely oversold conditions*," said Peter Kenny, an independent market strategist. "Since the lows we've seen the market rally in stealth mode. Those who panicked got punished."
> ...

----------


## devil21

Rut roh!  CNBC pulled Peter Schiff back out for their Fast Money broadcast today at 5:10pm ET.  I haven't seen him on CNBC in a long time but we all know what his 2007/08 appearances meant!

----------


## TheCount

> Rut roh!  CNBC pulled Peter Schiff back out for their Fast Money broadcast today at 5:10pm ET.  I haven't seen him on CNBC in a long time but we all know what his 2007/08 appearances meant!


http://www.cnbc.com/peter-schiff/

Looks like he's on pretty much monthly.

----------


## devil21

> http://www.cnbc.com/peter-schiff/
> 
> Looks like he's on pretty much monthly.


Looks like they have him on more than I thought (though some of those links are written, not video) but yesterday's was in studio and very reminiscent of the 07 appearances that he became famous for.

----------


## oyarde

As of today , for the first time in my life , I am 100 percent cashed out of the market .Tomorrow starts my third week of retirement and my second day of my once a week part time job of 5 hours per day . I feel great

----------


## Zippyjuan

Congratulations!

----------


## devil21

Watch the yen...if yen strengthening continues, stocks heading back down in a big way.  My bet is stocks heading back down.

----------


## TheCount

> My bet is stocks heading back down.


When is that not your bet?

----------


## Zippyjuan

Kinda like me saying things are going to crash. But if I do- look out!!!!

On the other hand- http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/us-markets.html




> *Dow closes down triple digits as oil falls, yen climbs*
> 
> U.S. stocks closed about 1 percent lower or more Thursday, with financials leading declines. Continued strength in the yen against the dollar renewed concerns about global growth and the effectiveness of central bank policy.
> 
> The major averages ended off session lows but the S&P 500 still closed more than 1 percent lower *to erase year-to-date gains*.  The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 174 points lower after earlier falling 231 points, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most to declines.
> 
> The *Japanese yen* was near 108.4 yen against the U.S. dollar around the stock market close after earlier trading near 107.7,* a fresh high against the greenback going back to October 2014*.


Where is that PPT when you need them?

----------


## devil21

> When is that not your bet?


Compared to the dollar unit, that's always my bet.  Funny that the stock market always steals wealth no matter whether it's going up or down.

Up?  Dollar unit worth less.  Down?  Dollar units put into a stock account go bye-bye.  Imaginary money always loses "value" no matter what because faith is lost in one way or another.

What say you?

And watch the yen....




> Where is that PPT when you need them?


On Wall St at 3pm, apparently.

What's Deutsche Bank's stock price today compared to when I said it was being set up as next Lehman and to short it?  What was the price then?  Hmm....

----------


## devil21

appropriate time for a bump, no?

----------


## kfarnan

> Compared to the dollar unit, that's always my bet.  Funny that the stock market always steals wealth no matter whether it's going up or down.
> 
> Up?  Dollar unit worth less.  Down?  Dollar units put into a stock account go bye-bye.  Imaginary money always loses "value" no matter what because faith is lost in one way or another.
> 
> What say you?


It is a zero sum game.  Only the bankers are winning a rigged game.  Until sound money's adopted, there can't be real prosperity.

----------


## Madison320

> appropriate time for a bump, no?


I think the Brexit is a non event for US stocks. My guess is stocks will rebound when everyone realizes this means the Fed has another excuse not to raise rates.

In my opinion the Big Event is going to be a reversal from the Fed. Lowering rates and more QE.

----------


## TheCount

> appropriate time for a bump, no?


I'm making so much money today.

----------


## jllundqu

> I'm making so much money today.


PM or gov bonds?

----------


## jllundqu

Meh.... stocks are only down 500... basically at May's levels...  I'll get excited when it's down 1500

----------


## TheCount

> PM or gov bonds?


Both, plus doubling down on stocks before they rebound.  Seems an overreaction.

----------


## jllundqu

> Both, plus doubling down on stocks before they rebound.  Seems an overreaction.


BTFD BEEEYACHES

----------


## TheCount

> BTFD BEEEYACHES


Indeed, even though mysteriously that term is only used for PMs.  Same concepts apply.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Both, plus doubling down on stocks before they rebound.  Seems an overreaction.


There always is an over-reaction. Nothing has actually changed yet. The response is over the uncertainty of the situation. Good time to be buying. The sell-off is just a temporary reaction.   Dow is still almost 2000 points above its 52 week low (February). Dow opened with a big drop but didn't continue to fall during the day. With an hour to go, it is about the same as it was an hour after open.

----------


## angelatc

> There always is an over-reaction. Nothing has actually changed yet. The response is over the uncertainty of the situation..


 Well duh - sell on rumor, buy on news.   That's how it works.

But it closed up ahead of the vote in anticipation of a positive remain vote.  This is just a small correction.  2-3% is not the end of the world. 2007 - 2008 = we lost 50%.  And even then, the only thing that was required in order not to take a loss was to sit tight.

----------


## Zippyjuan

You are right- with yesterday's rise and today's drop it is only down 200 points (1.1%).

----------


## TheCount

> Well duh - sell on rumor, buy on news.   That's how it works.
> 
> But it closed up ahead of the vote in anticipation of a positive remain vote.  This is just a small correction.  2-3% is not the end of the world. 2007 - 2008 = we lost 50%.  And even then, the only thing that was required in order not to take a loss was to sit tight.


That won't be what's advertised on the net, though... it'll be peak to trough worse case numbers used to argue the end of the world.  By Zerohedge, undoubtedly.

----------


## angelatc

> That won't be what's advertised on the net, though... it'll be peak to trough worse case numbers used to argue the end of the world.  By Zerohedge, undoubtedly.


It never is.  Same thing with the housing crash.  Unless you're selling, the market value of your home is not really relevant on a daily basis.  But nobody watches the news to hear someone say, "Just hang out - it'll work itself out."

----------


## oyarde

> I'm making so much money today.


Me too . best day since May .

----------


## DamianTV

All of it Chump Change compared to what is coming now...

----------


## TheCount

> It never is.  Same thing with the housing crash.  Unless you're selling, the market value of your home is not really relevant on a daily basis.  But nobody watches the news to hear someone say, "Just hang out - it'll work itself out."


I don't think that it has much to do with the news... or rather, I think that the news is the symptom rather than the cause... they're reporting what their audience wants to hear.

I think that Americans, generally, value people in terms of their dollar worth, and as such they're highly concerned with how much money they, personally, are worth at any given moment.  A rise or fall in the dollar price of their investments or home or whatever has an immediate impact on their opinion of themselves, despite the fact that the actual value of those things has not changed - and despite the fact that the value or price of those things has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on their worth as a person.

----------


## devil21

> BTFD BEEEYACHES


I'd consider a btfd for a decent tuesday bounce but not for monday.  Gonna be a lot of sell orders lined up over the weekend.

----------


## NancyM

Tesla has had some big fans on this forum

----------


## kfarnan

> Me too . best day since May .


Must be shorting than.

----------


## oyarde

> Tesla has had some big fans on this forum


Not me.

----------


## oyarde

To be fair , Tesla is only down to 191 from about 287 , which is pretty good for junk like that.

----------


## presence

> *"The bounce off the resistance near the third peak* 
> *is a clear indication* 
> _that buying interest is becoming exhausted."_


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tripletop.asp






sub 14000 is destiny

----------


## jllundqu

> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tripletop.asp
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sub 14000 is destiny


ohhhhohohohhhh  CHart porn

----------


## Danke

> ohhhhohohohhhh  CHart porn

----------


## devil21

Who wants to bet that the insiders and banks are dumping equity holdings while the ESF/PPT is running overdrive printing the loot to buy them up?  Doesn't look like a coincidence that banks are announcing big stock buybacks of their own stock right after this highly improbable rally.  After the insiders are out and the banks have completed their own buybacks, the ESF (taxpayers) will be on the hook holding a crap ton of (weak) stocks.  That's when they let the bottom fall out.  The printers are running hardcore quietly in the background to prop the markets up, hence why metals and commodities are going up.  I can't remember the last time I saw every asset class going up fast at the same time.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Brexit drop over?   http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/29/us-markets.html




> *Dow closes up more than 250 points, recovers more than half of Brexit losses*
> 
> U.S. stocks closed more than 1.5 percent higher Wednesday, helped by gains in oil prices, as global markets recovered for a second day from their post-Brexit plunge.
> 
> "What I think people are grasping here is, this is a disaster for the U.K., but it's a big splash with small ripples," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
> 
> The Dow Jones industrial average closed up nearly 285 points in its best percentage gain since March 1, with Boeing and Goldman Sachs contributing the most to gains as all constituents except Home Depot rose.


That was yesterday.  Up another 200 points with a hour to go today.  Almost all the way up to where it was just before the vote took place.

----------


## Madison320

> Brexit drop over?   http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/29/us-markets.html
> 
> 
> 
> That was yesterday.  Up another 200 points with a hour to go today.  Almost all the way up to where it was just before the vote took place.



Main reason: Brexit = No Rate Hikes (Maybe we'll even get rate cuts and QE).

----------


## Zippyjuan

No reason to cut rates or start any QE.

----------


## oyarde

Been no reason to raise rates .

----------


## orafi

Good Time to buy pm?

----------


## oyarde

> Good Time to buy pm?


Ten days ago was.

----------


## devil21

> No reason to cut rates or start any QE.


Or could just lie to the commoners and do it on the down-low and hope no one pays attention to the market signals that tell you it's happening regardless of what Mother Yellen claims in her latest fireside chat with the compliant media.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Evidence of that?

----------


## devil21

> Evidence of that?


Cuz lying bankers.

----------


## orafi

> Ten days ago was.



Too late?

----------


## oyarde

> Too late?


No , especially not for silver.

----------


## orafi

> No , especially not for silver.


Do you invest with europac by any chance?

----------


## oyarde

> Do you invest with europac by any chance?


Nah , I recently retired and am totally out of the paper markets , everything I hold is physical.

----------


## orafi

> Nah , I recently retired and am totally out of the paper markets , everything I hold is physical.


Cool.
How high do you think gold and silver can go? Conservatively?

----------


## oyarde

> Cool.
> How high do you think gold and silver can go? Conservatively?


A month ago I was expecting , this summer , to see 1390 gold and silver near 20 . I would expect , now to see silver go higher. I am only guessing. Currently Gold is nearly 1340 , silver , nearly 19 1/3 .

----------


## orafi

> A month ago I was expecting , this summer , to see 1390 gold and silver near 20 . I would expect , now to see silver go higher. I am only guessing. Currently Gold is nearly 1340 , silver , nearly 19 1/3 .



Any chance gold can see a decent dip you think?

----------


## oyarde

> Any chance gold can see a decent dip you think?


Hard to tell , ya could buy some silver and see what gold does .

----------


## Zippyjuan

Gold seems to be a lot slower on the down side than stocks are (a lot less volume for one).  While you can see a short bump in the price when some bad economic news breaks, it takes a longer time for it to work its way back down.

----------


## devil21

Gold is great but silver is the one to watch.  Has anyone seen silver rise $1.15+ in a single day as it did yesterday?  I can't recall it.  That's a *huge* move for silver.  Looks like the rough 16-1 silver-gold ratio is coming back in bits and pieces.  Still a long way to go but that's the direction imo.  The next 6 months is gonna be an amazing time to watch metals.  It'll also be a really crappy time when it's realized that metals are constant value, only the currencies are being revalued.




> Any chance gold can see a decent dip you think?


I think that ship has sailed.  Buy what you can while it's still available.  Silver is the better value though as far as sheer potential dollar-denominated gains are concerned.  Silver mining is also more of a byproduct of industrial mining operations than gold so silver availability tends to follow industrial output.  Less industry = less silver.

----------


## Madison320

> Any chance gold can see a decent dip you think?


I think the big move will happen when the Fed changes course and cuts rate back to zero and launches QE4. That's when you'll see huge moves up in gold that will dwarf anything happening now.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Gold is great but silver is the one to watch.  Has anyone seen silver rise $1.15+ in a single day as it did yesterday?  I can't recall it.  That's a *huge* move for silver. *  Looks like the rough 16-1 silver-gold ratio is coming back in bits and pieces.  Still a long way to go*  but that's the direction imo.  The next 6 months is gonna be an amazing time to watch metals.  It'll also be a really crappy time when it's realized that metals are constant value, only the currencies are being revalued.
> 
> 
> 
> I think that ship has sailed.  Buy what you can while it's still available.  Silver is the better value though as far as sheer potential dollar-denominated gains are concerned.  Silver mining is also more of a byproduct of industrial mining operations than gold so silver availability tends to follow industrial output.  Less industry = less silver.


Yes, a looong ways to go. At $1300 an ounce for gold, that is $81 an ounce for silver.

When was the last time we saw this mythical 16- 1 gold/ silver ratio? If the value of both metals are constant and only the currency changes shouldn't the ratio be a straight line?

----------


## devil21

Aaaaaand silver rockets past $20/oz.  Fireworks indeed!

----------


## oyarde

Silver 20.47 and Gold 1349 .

----------


## brandon

hitting new all time highs for S&P

----------


## jllundqu

Why are stocks going up??  There is nothing but bad news globally!  Fake gains are fake gains!

----------


## wizardwatson

> hitting new all time highs for S&P


Helicopter Ben has told Japan, "more cowbell".  Japan has obliged.  Markets responding.

----------


## oyarde

> hitting new all time highs for S&P


I hope you are raking it in .

----------


## devil21

> Why are stocks going up??  There is nothing but bad news globally!  Fake gains are fake gains!


Helicopter money is on the table.

----------


## Dforkus

> Why are stocks going up??  There is nothing but bad news globally!  Fake gains are fake gains!


simply not true, corporate profits are up for a lot of sectors, stabilization of the energy market too. Also, because of the brexit hysteria, people are tripping over each other to buy our treasuries, driving the yields down below 1.5%. 

With such a pitiful yield, safe boring equities, (the Compass Mineral (rock salt), MacDonalds, Coca-colas, Walmarts, and Altrias of the world), that pay much more than that in dividends (in many case more than double) just for holding become very attractive.

----------


## Seraphim

American, Canadian and British stocks have held up fine...have you looked at all the stock markets of Europe, Japan and the rest of the world? HORRENDOUS performances in the last year or so, specifically from the New Year on...and that's with a sizeable bounce up in the last 1-2 weeks.





> Why are stocks going up??  There is nothing but bad news globally!  Fake gains are fake gains!

----------


## wizardwatson

DOW broke record today.  

It was yuuuuuge!



Somewhere, Zippyjuan is smiling.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Are we crashing yet?

----------


## oyarde

> DOW broke record today.  
> 
> It was yuuuuuge!
> 
> 
> 
> Somewhere, Zippyjuan is smiling.


This means Jordan and Brandon are filthy rich and should  buy me a drink .

----------


## devil21

> Are we crashing yet?


Might be time to get this crashing show on the road today.  We shall see what comes out of the Hole.

----------


## Zippyjuan

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/26/fed-c...engthened.html




> *Yellen: Case for raising rates has strengthened 'in recent months'*
> 
> In a much-anticipated speech Friday at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole summit, Fed Chair Janet Yellen* voiced optimism about the economy and an expectation that interest rate hikes are ahead.*
> 
> Speaking as the market wonders when the Fed will resume a policy tightening that began in December, Yellen issued some cautionary tones, but pointed to more increases on the horizon.
> 
> The Federal Open Market Committee "continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives," Yellen said in prepared remarks.
> 
> More pointedly, she added,* "Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."*
> ...

----------


## devil21

Finally!  If the Democratic nominee on the verge of stepping down (and possibly being arrested but that's a hunch) doesn't set this damn selloff in motion then nothing will.

Dow futures -100 already.

----------


## ILUVRP

historic s&p 500 pe ratio is 15-16x , now 23-24x  , the market could go down about 35% to get to historic levels .

----------


## John F Kennedy III

Let it all crash and burn.

----------


## presence

> “We’re fragile right now,” said Kevin Kelly, chief investment officer  at Recon Capital Partners LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, which oversees  $350 million. “It’s already priced into the market that Hillary Clinton  is going to be president so right now anything that changes that  narrative is going to give the market a pause to consider what that  would mean.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...erable-markets

----------


## CaptUSA

> Let it all crash and burn.


I don't think you really know what that means.  If I thought for one minute that a crash and burn would result in a market-clearing, I might be able to agree.  But I have seen no evidence to suggest that that would happen.  In reality, I'd expect us to be living through some serious pain and suffering for an extended period of time.

----------


## John F Kennedy III

> I don't think you really know what that means.  If I thought for one minute that a crash and burn would result in a market-clearing, I might be able to agree.  But I have seen no evidence to suggest that that would happen.  In reality, I'd expect us to be living through some serious pain and suffering for an extended period of time.


I wasn't serious. Boobus wouldn't learn a thing from it.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

> This means Jordan and Brandon are filthy rich and should  buy me a drink .


Umm, it hadn't gone up _that_ much.

My hope would be that this thread might educate some on the difficulties associated with trying to predict the market.  Presence made a prediction.  Was it right?  By all means!  Smacked right out of the park.  It was a great one; one for the ages!  A pundit might have a clear-cut winner of a prediction like that once in a lifetime; more likely none in a lifetime.

Even with that..... would you have made money over the last year following his advice?

And if you can't make money on such a clear grand-slam winner of a call, what hope can you have of ever making money, of making money on calls that may be less once-in-a-lifetime, more humdrum?

Better, in my opinion, to be diversified, to have some gold -- *a good chunk of gold* -- and be safe no matter what may happen with the market.

----------


## oyarde

> Umm, it hadn't gone up _that_ much.
> 
> My hope would be that this thread might educate some on the difficulties associated with trying to predict the market.  Presence made a prediction.  Was it right?  By all means!  Smacked right out of the park.  It was a great one; one for the ages!  A pundit might have a clear-cut winner of a prediction like that once in a lifetime; more likely none in a lifetime.
> 
> Even with that..... would you have made money over the last year following his advice?
> 
> And if you can't make money on such a clear grand-slam winner of a call, what hope can you have of ever making money, of making money on calls that may be less once-in-a-lifetime, more humdrum?
> 
> Better, in my opinion, to be diversified, to have some gold -- *a good chunk of gold* -- and be safe no matter what may happen with the market.


I am covered , I will be here in luxury with my authentic flannel sheets .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Umm, it hadn't gone up _that_ much.
> 
> My hope would be that this thread might educate some on the difficulties associated with trying to predict the market.  Presence made a prediction.  Was it right?  By all means!  Smacked right out of the park.  It was a great one; one for the ages!  A pundit might have a clear-cut winner of a prediction like that once in a lifetime; more likely none in a lifetime.
> 
> Even with that..... would you have made money over the last year following his advice?
> 
> And if you can't make money on such a clear grand-slam winner of a call, what hope can you have of ever making money, of making money on calls that may be less once-in-a-lifetime, more humdrum?
> 
> Better, in my opinion, to be diversified, to have some gold -- *a good chunk of gold* -- and be safe no matter what may happen with the market.
> ...


Not being able to time a market does not mean one cannot gain from being in that market.  The price of gold cannot be timed either.  If you bought in 1980 you still have less value when adjusted for inflation.  If you  bought then, the price in dollars fell over the next 20 years.  Gold's recent peak was $1900 in 2011.  Had you bought then, you would be losing money today. If you bought at the start of this year, you would be doing pretty good. What will it (or stocks or other investment) do in the future?  Nobody knows. Nothing is certain. There is no guarantee.

----------


## TheCount

> Finally!  If the Democratic nominee on the verge of stepping down (and possibly being arrested but that's a hunch) doesn't set this damn selloff in motion then nothing will.
> 
> Dow futures -100 already.


Dow up 250 pts so far today

----------


## Zippyjuan

Gained back a big chunk of Friday's drop when one Fed bank member suggested time might be here to raise rates again.  Today another member said they should stay where they are. Clinton does not seem to have had an impact on the market.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

Zippyjuan, you are so blindly, jingoistically against gold you cannot even manage to successfully READ MY POST. Nor to have any clue, apparently, of anything I think about the subject, despite having written thousands of words and exchanged dozens, perhaps hundreds of posts, with you specifically. Or with someone with the same user name.

I think that bike accident in Prague gave you brain damage.  It's sad. Do your doctors agree?

----------


## Zippyjuan

I have never even been to Prague.   Nor did I only mention gold and neither did you.

----------


## helmuth_hubener

Oh yeah, Ljubljana; my mistake.

----------


## ILUVRP

watch out for trump , if he wins this stock market tanks .

----------


## oyarde

> watch out for trump , if he wins this stock market tanks .


I cannot imagine it has much effect , what is your line of thinking ?

----------


## ILUVRP

the market has hillary winning , it hates uncertainty and its looking for a reason to go down big   , trump winning will be a black swan event .

----------


## Zippyjuan

Historically, the market has done better when a Democrat is in the White House than when a Republican is.  Chart looks at S&P 500 (Dow Jones is just 30 stocks which may or may not represent the rest of the market). 



But also note, 




> There is no conclusive evidence suggesting the president’s party has any statistically significant impact on U.S. equity market returns (see Campbell and Li 2004). Intuitively this makes sense, because stock returns are influenced by a myriad of factors such as valuations, corporate profits, business cycles, monetary policy, etc. In addition, the increasingly global economy (the S&P 500 generates more than 50% of revenues outside the U.S.) makes the actions of a single government less important.
> 
> The stock market is a complex adaptive system in which cause and effect are not easy to link. Market movements, particularly over short periods such as a presidential term (yes, four years is a short-term investment period), are random.
> 
> As election season heats up, the average investor should think twice about making adjustments to his or her portfolio purely in response to election results. Instead, focus on the things you can control such as savings rate, investment costs and taxes.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlaz.../#7c536265bfb8

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## devil21

> Oh yeah, Ljubljana; my mistake.


Opinions are like $#@!s.  And RPF handles.  Everybody has at least one.

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## osan

> Historically, the market has done better when a Democrat is in the White House than when a Republican is.


And what, pray you tell, does this "market" to which you refer represent?  When this "market" does well, who tends to benefit, mostly?

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## Madison320

> the market has hillary winning , it hates uncertainty and its looking for a reason to go down big   , trump winning will be a black swan event .


I would argue that these markets love only one thing. Cheap money. With Hillary cheap money is guaranteed. With Trump who knows?

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## TheCount

> I would argue that these markets love only one thing. Cheap money. With Hillary cheap money is guaranteed. With Trump who knows?


Donald "We should just print ourselves out of debt" Trump?

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## Madison320

> Donald "We should just print ourselves out of debt" Trump?


Good point, although he also said low rates were bad for the economy.

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## TheCount

> Good point, although he also said low rates were bad for the economy.


The idea that someone can talk about how awesome debt is and also be against low rates is totally nonsensical.  He's just playing both sides.

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## brandon

bump?

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## oyarde

> bump?


I cashed all the way out last spring , planted some more fruit trees

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## devil21

> bump?

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## devil21

bump

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## oyarde

Gold should break 1260 this morning , silver is at 18.06 . Nascrap is up 11 . One yr oil forecast is still at 55 a barrel , West Texas Light Crude @ 48 , Brent Crude @ 50.80 , Nat Gas 3.08 . Heating Oil 1.50, wholesale gasoline 1.60 , Copper @ 2.62 . Dow down 50 , S & P down 2 .

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## helmuth_hubener

Every time I see this thread title, my confidence in the wisdom of my own recommended investment strategy is increased.

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## devil21

> Every time I see this thread title, my confidence in the wisdom of my own recommended investment strategy is increased.


What's that strategy?

Futures this morning were down nearly 200.

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## Madison320

> What's that strategy?
> 
> Futures this morning were down nearly 200.


So far it's just a blip. The DOW needs to drop at least another 1000 or so before it's significant.

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## Zippyjuan

> What's that strategy?
> 
> Futures this morning were down nearly 200.


Selling on dips is definitely not a good strategy. Buy and hold.  A "correction" would be a ten percent drop or in this case over 2,000 points.

Market is up about 18% from one year ago.

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## NorthCarolinaLiberty

> Selling on dips is definitely not a good strategy. Buy and hold.  A "correction" would be a ten percent drop or in this case over 2,000 points.
> 
> Market is up about 18% from one year ago.



Time to actually debate, holmes.

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## Krugminator2

> Historically, the market has done better when a Democrat is in the White House than when a Republican is.  Chart looks at S&P 500 (Dow Jones is just 30 stocks which may or may not represent the rest of the market).


In order to even begin to be able to say that the stock market performs better under Democrats you would need (as a guess) a minimum of 75 observation of each party before you could even begin to say that there is some statistical significance. Meaning it would take at least 600 years if policies of the parties stayed the same before you could start drawing any conclusions. 

There is so much variance in the stock market. Having the Great Recession and Great Depression happen under Republican Presidents and then the subsequent recovery under a Democratic President is the difference in performance in your limited sample size.  Stock markets in every Western country produce 4-7% real return over the course of century regardless of who is in power. 

As for this thread warning about a crash. Germany lost two world wars in the 20th Century.  They had hyperinflation. German equities yielded a 4% real rate of return from 1900-2000.  It pays to be a permabull, unless of course you are a gold salesman. In which case you should ignore the near 0% real return  of gold over time.

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## devil21

^^^^^Both stocks and metals are inflation hedges.  Except for the part where you do not retain any claim of ownership of the stocks in the markets.

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## Madison320

> In order to even begin to be able to say that the stock market performs better under Democrats you would need (as a guess) a minimum of 75 observation of each party before you could even begin to say that there is some statistical significance. Meaning it would take at least 600 years if policies of the parties stayed the same before you could start drawing any conclusions. 
> 
> There is so much variance in the stock market. Having the Great Recession and Great Depression happen under Republican Presidents and then the subsequent recovery under a Democratic President is the difference in performance in your limited sample size.  Stock markets in every Western country produce 4-7% real return over the course of century regardless of who is in power. 
> 
> As for this thread warning about a crash. Germany lost two world wars in the 20th Century.  They had hyperinflation. German equities yielded a 4% real rate of return from 1900-2000.  It pays to be a permabull, unless of course you are a gold salesman. In which case you should ignore the near 0% real return  of gold over time.


That's a good point but keep in mind many gold bugs aren't against the stock market, they're against fiat currency. Germans who held cash lost everything. Same with I'm guessing 50-100 hundred countries in the last 100 years.

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## Madison320

> ^^^^^Both stocks and metals are inflation hedges.  Except for the part where you do not retain any claim of ownership of the stocks in the markets.


That's one small reason why I don't own mutual funds, only individual stocks. In the event of a currency and economic collapse, it seems like it would be easier to sort out who owns what if you own individual stocks.

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## devil21

> That's one small reason why I don't own mutual funds, only individual stocks. In the event of a currency and economic collapse, it seems like it would be easier to sort out who owns what if you own individual stocks.


You should probably read this.

http://themillenniumreport.com/2016/...-banking-scam/




> The banks and brokers are merely custodians for their clients. By federal law (SEC), they cannot hold any
> assets in the customer’s name. The assets must be held in the name of DTC’s holding company, CEDE & Co.  much more at great article


DTC lists how to try to get a paper stock certificate.  Good luck with that.
http://www.dtcc.com/matching-settlem...-work-with-dtc

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## TheCount

> ^^^^^Both stocks and metals are inflation hedges.  Except for the part where you do not retain any claim of ownership of the stocks in the markets.


Also except for the part where the value of the stock varies on the performance and growth of the company, while the value of metal changes only with inflation and speculation.  And I've never heard of metals paying dividends.

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## devil21

> Also except for the part where the value of the stock varies on the performance and growth of the company, while the value of metal changes only with inflation and speculation.  And I've never heard of metals paying dividends.


True.  Never heard of a gold coin cooking its own books before.

It's been interesting watching stocks the last two days.  If Dow closes red today it would be the first 9 day losing streak since 1978.  Headline reading algos preventing that bad omen, it seems.  Release a couple of soft data surveys with rainbow headline keywords and let HAL save the day.  Even the usual CNBC pumpers were all "da fuq?" today.

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## oyarde

> True.  Never heard of a gold coin cooking its own books before.


Nor do coins have horrible P/E ratios .

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## Madison320

> You should probably read this.
> 
> http://themillenniumreport.com/2016/...-banking-scam/
> 
> 
> 
> DTC lists how to try to get a paper stock certificate.  Good luck with that.
> http://www.dtcc.com/matching-settlem...-work-with-dtc


That sucks but I still think there's one less thing to go wrong by owning individual stocks.

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## devil21

> That sucks but I still think there's one less thing to go wrong by owning individual stocks.


The whole point is that you don't own stocks....the Fed owns all stocks through the Fed's holding companies.  You are allowed to play with their stocks to maybe win the use of some more of their Fed bucks.  It's also why they can take back much of your winnings through capital gains tax.  Its like tickets at Chuck E Cheese.  You can play their games to win tickets to use in their stores.  They issue the tickets and they take them back.  The tickets are worthless to a Chuck E. Cheese employee because they have unlimited access to them.  Only tickets won with your "effort" have any value.  And those tickets don't "buy" much any way.

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## Madison320

> The whole point is that you don't own stocks....the Fed owns all stocks through the Fed's holding companies.  You are allowed to play with their stocks to maybe win the use of some more of their Fed bucks.  It's also why they can take back much of your winnings through capital gains tax.  Its like tickets at Chuck E Cheese.  You can play their games to win tickets to use in their stores.  They issue the tickets and they take them back.  The tickets are worthless to a Chuck E. Cheese employee because they have unlimited access to them.  Only tickets won with your "effort" have any value.  And those tickets don't "buy" much any way.


Suppose I own 1 share of IBM. Then the dollar hyperinflates and we switch a new currency. Wouldn't I still be able to trade my share for the new currency?

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## TheCount

> It's been interesting watching stocks the last two days.  If Dow closes red today it would be the first 9 day losing streak since 1978.  Headline reading algos preventing that bad omen, it seems.  Release a couple of soft data surveys with rainbow headline keywords and let HAL save the day.  Even the usual CNBC pumpers were all "da fuq?" today.


Starting in on your dire market projections for this year?

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## devil21

> Suppose I own 1 share of IBM. Then the dollar hyperinflates and we switch a new currency. Wouldn't I still be able to trade my share for the new currency?


You'd have to ask the resident Chuck E Cheese employees that question.  It's their game and they make the rules.  They would remind you that it's not _your_ ticket (IBM) though.  Stands to reason the answer would be 'yes', but then only if Chuck E Cheese didn't assert its ownership of the ticket in the meantime.

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## helmuth_hubener

> What's that strategy?


Suffice it to say it's extremely conservative and radically boring.  Or is that radically conservative and extremely boring?  It also involves _way_ too much gold for anyone who "knows anything about investing."

So: unorthodox, unpopular, and unappealing to pretty much everyone on all sides of the spectrum!

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## devil21

> Suffice it to say it's extremely conservative and radically boring.  Or is that radically conservative and extremely boring?  It also involves _way_ too much gold for anyone who "knows anything about investing."
> 
> So: unorthodox, unpopular, and unappealing to pretty much everyone on all sides of the spectrum!


Sounds like my kind of plan.

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## dannno

> Suffice it to say it's extremely conservative and radically boring.  Or is that radically conservative and extremely boring?  It also involves _way_ too much gold for anyone who "knows anything about investing."
> 
> So: unorthodox, unpopular, and unappealing to pretty much everyone on all sides of the spectrum!





> Sounds like my kind of plan.



http://www.comedycentral.co.uk/chapp...tang-financial

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## Zippyjuan

> Starting in on your dire market projections for this year?


There is always a crisis just around the corner.  As for that decline of eight days (didn't make it to nine):




> Still, it's important to note that the Dow remains up 12% since the election and the eight-day losing streak *only knocked it down by about 1.6%*. By comparison, the August 2011 stumble wiped 7% of value from the Dow.

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## devil21

Tesla is now the most valuable car maker in America.  A sure sign of a healthy free market.  

The Fed must be just pumping money into certain "target" social engineering stocks like Tesla and Amazon.  The absurdity of Tesla being the most valuable car maker is...just too much.


Some pics from my local Tesla dealership:

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## oyarde

Tesla is not a real car . Just expensive junk for stupid people .

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## Dforkus

> Tesla is not a real car . Just expensive junk for stupid people .


Junk? Have you ever ridden in one?
I have, pretty damn nice

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## oyarde

> Junk? Have you ever ridden in one?
> I have, pretty damn nice


How is 'merica gonna be great again if you are riding around in a fake car instead of being productive ?

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## dannno

> Tesla is now the most valuable car maker in America.  A sure sign of a healthy free market.  
> 
> The Fed must be just pumping money into certain "target" stocks like Tesla and Amazon.  The absurdity of Tesla being the most valuable car maker is...just too much.
> 
> 
> Some pics from my local Tesla dealership:



Looks pretty successful to me, they are totally sold out. Most dealerships have so much inventory they don't know what to do with it.

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## oyarde

If I had to choose , I would take a new Ford over one of those things .

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## devil21

> Looks pretty successful to me, they are totally sold out. Most dealerships have so much inventory they don't know what to do with it.


That sound you heard was my point flying over your head.  I'm guessing you haven't seen the average Tesla dealership.  The one in my city has about 20 cars on the entire lot and most are way out of the price range of most buyers.  There's gotta be some "redirection" of money invested into Tesla going into something else.  SpaceX?  Or is it yet another Fed funded social engineering company (autonomous cars) like Amazon?

Good recent write-up on Tesla:  http://fortune.com/2017/04/11/tesla-...l-motors-ford/

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