# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Stocks down - Gold and Silver up!?!?!

## Thrashertm

Today's the first day I've seen this in trend in effect since 2008, when the dollar and the stock market fell together, and gold and silver would rise, and vice versa. Since then, gold and silver have gone up with stocks as investors (aka the government, the Fed, hedge funds) moved out of treasuries.

Any theories on what's going on here?

----------


## CitizenPlain

...

----------


## ctiger2

IMO the market is completely manipulated. It's a complete charade. Glad I'm out!

----------


## acptulsa

The question is, how long before the natural forces overwhelm their ability to manipulate?  When they decide they're ready to take their profits?  Certainly they'll decide they're ready when they can no longer overwhelm the free market forces underlying the manipulation...

----------


## Thrashertm

> IMO the market is completely manipulated. It's a complete charade. Glad I'm out!


I agree with you! I'm focused on investing in myself primarily. The stock market is just a side-show.

----------


## Thrashertm

> The question is, how long before the natural forces overwhelm their ability to manipulate?  When they decide they're ready to take their profits?  Certainly they'll decide they're ready when they can no longer overwhelm the free market forces underlying the manipulation...


Seems like the whole market is smoke and mirrors. Perhaps natural forces will never be able to overwhelm these charlatans!

----------


## acptulsa

> Seems like the whole market is smoke and mirrors. Perhaps natural forces will never be able to overwhelm these charlatans!


I don't know about that.  They'd like us to think so, certainly--and would like to think so themselves as well.  But, if that were true, they wouldn't be charlatains, would they?

----------


## Arklatex

> IMO the market is completely manipulated. It's a complete charade. Glad I'm out!


Wise man.

----------


## ILUVRP

http://www.commoditynewscenter.com/a...Month_for_Gold

Hang on as gold heads to $1150/oz  Silver to $20/oz

Gold now up $17/oz 

Breaking out of the coil.

----------


## Bruno

> Today's the first day I've seen this in trend in effect since 2008, when the dollar and the stock market fell together, and gold and silver would rise, and vice versa. Since then, gold and silver have gone up with stocks as investors (aka the government, the Fed, hedge funds) moved out of treasuries.
> 
> Any theories on what's going on here?


I agree.  Its been a long time since it followed that trend, and I've been wondering why, too.

----------


## PaulaGem

duplicate

----------


## PaulaGem

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=208195





Above looks like a nice tidy covering pattern.

Theory - Chinese long silver (and other commodities) US banks short. 
Chinese told US banks that shorted - let it correct or we default

KABOOM!

----------


## PaulaGem

The 200 day did not break support (right in this area $15-$16) until after the 30 day started moving up.

An indicator that the move down was on very low volume and the shorts didn't get as much as they had hoped out of the move.

Any other  explanations of this chart?

----------


## Arklatex

Could it be the Fed Audit is becoming a reality?  

Coupled with rumors of a bank failure.

 I don't know but there is a move to PM like I haven't seen in awhile.  


Could they take gold to 1000 OZ before they crash it to $800?  Or is this the move to $1200 OZ?

----------


## PaulaGem

> Could it be the Fed Audit is becoming a reality?  
> 
> Coupled with rumors of a bank failure.
> 
>  I don't know but there is a move to PM like I haven't seen in awhile.  
> 
> 
> Could they take gold to 1000 OZ before they crash it to $800?  Or is this the move to $1200 OZ?


Any charts other than the COMEX that you would use to gauge this move?

I know how fake it is, it's actually only worth using to chart banking and hedge fund activity in paper commodities.

----------


## Arklatex

And what's the deal with China defaulting on some contracts?  Why would they do that?

----------


## tmosley

> And what's the deal with China defaulting on some contracts?  Why would they do that?


To protect domestic companies from their own bad decisions, on the face of it.

My guess is that it is really to drive up the prices of all those commodities they have been buying.

----------


## Dforkus

Gold and Silver are rallying, but so are bonds..

the equity market is unchanged... *shrug*

----------


## PaulaGem

> And what's the deal with China defaulting on some contracts?  Why would they do that?



I linked to the thread with the news release in the above post.

----------


## Bruno

Wow.  up $22.50 today to over 980.

----------


## Mitt Romneys sideburns

> IMO the market is completely manipulated. It's a complete charade. Glad I'm out!


Must be a full moon.

----------


## Dforkus

> Wow. up $22.50 today to over 980.


 10 year treasuries continued their rally too...
I usually don't make predictions, but I just can't see how treasuries and PMs can continue going in the same direction... something HAS to give..

Nat Gas at 2.70 a therm seems too good to be true as well

----------


## Cowlesy

> 10 year treasuries continued their rally too...
> I usually don't make predictions, but I just can't how treasuries and PMs can continue going in the same direction... something HAS to give..


It probably won't change until the perception of "safety" no longer includes treasuries.  Somehow, the law of gravity does not apply to economics.

----------


## tmosley

> It probably won't change until the perception of "safety" no longer includes treasuries.  Somehow, the law of gravity does not apply to economics.


Gravity applies to satellites in orbit as well.  It just takes them longer to fall.

----------


## Brian Defferding

$#@!.  I'm waiting to buy silver when it goes below $14/oz.  Do you guys think I'll need to wait long?  Should I just buy anyway, potential loss be damned?

----------


## Wickwire

> $#@!.  I'm waiting to buy silver when it goes below $14/oz.  Do you guys think I'll need to wait long?  Should I just buy anyway, potential loss be damned?


I'm waiting for another dip.  I have zero facts as to why, but I think it will dip again, at least enough to get to $14.  If it dips, I doubt it stays down for long.

----------


## tremendoustie

> I'm waiting for another dip.  I have zero facts as to why, but I think it will dip again, at least enough to get to $14.  If it dips, I doubt it stays down for long.


The way this is looking, you might be waiting a long time for $14

----------


## akforme

When silver runs fast, it often crashes fast.  If it's an up trend it won't crash as much as it went up.  Silver is very volitile.  But also, what are you buying it for?  A buck here or there isn't much when you think of the long haul.  I own some I paid 17 for last year, and I know I'll still come out when I finally sell.

----------


## Brian Defferding

> When silver runs fast, it often crashes fast.  If it's an up trend it won't crash as much as it went up.  Silver is very volitile.  But also, what are you buying it for?  A buck here or there isn't much when you think of the long haul.  I own some I paid 17 for last year, and I know I'll still come out when I finally sell.


How do you figure?  Honestly asking here.

----------


## gls

> How do you figure?  Honestly asking here.


I think what he's saying is that when silver really begins to take off, which the fundamentals heavily suggest it will, a dollar or two per ounce won't really matter when we're talking about it doubling or tripling (or more) in price.

----------


## Brian Defferding

> I think what he's saying is that when silver really begins to take off, which the fundamentals heavily suggest it will, a dollar or two per ounce won't really matter when we're talking about it doubling or tripling (or more) in price.


When do most people figure that silver will "take off"?   Under what calculations?

----------


## Thrashertm

> When do most people figure that silver will "take off"?   Under what calculations?


If you're worried about a hyper inflation situation, IMO you should buy a few hundred ounces now to protect yourself. This will protect you from a SHTF scenario. 

Then you can wait for the dip that you expect and pick up some more at that point.

----------


## Cowlesy

Gold is making moves toward $1000 today ---$992 right now.

----------


## tmosley

Silver is very much undervalued considering the state of above ground stocks.  It seems to have been subject to a great deal of downward price manipulation, and as such, the price will inevitably spike to far above its real value.  I'm thinking it may well hit $1000/oz in 2008 dollars, possibly double that.  When you factor in the sound money factor, silver will probably be even more than that.

Silver is going to be the play of the millennium, without a doubt.

----------


## ctiger2

Very Nice!

----------


## gls

> When do most people figure that silver will "take off"?   Under what calculations?


As far as I'm concerned silver has already started to "take off". It is up 83% from its low of $8.65 less than a year ago. Sure you might be able to catch it on a downturn and save a few bucks, but personally I wouldn't wait much longer to jump on this train.

I haven't done any calculations but I do know that the Obama administration admits to a $9 trillion shortfall over the next decade, and that's assuming positive economic growth during that timeframe.   So I don't see how silver/gold/all commodities have anywhere to go but way up over the next few years.

----------


## gls

Now silver is really taking off! Currently up .86 on the day to $16.22 an oz. My cynical side says this spike is too much too fast and to expect a rebound, but who knows?

----------


## stag15

Gold and silver are moving huge on a small move in the dollar.

IMO, someone big knows something and is buying.

GDX is up to $45.  Up about $6 in 2 days and double the avg volume, and there is still 3 hours left in trading.

----------


## Bruno

996 and 16. 20.  

That's amazing

----------


## stag15

Unfortunately, we think these moves are big.  Just wait 2-3 years when the real problems start.

----------


## stag15

Anybody follow GDX?  Up 10% yesterday and 6% today.  Volume is 17 million so far.  Avg volume is about 7 million.

----------


## not.your.average.joe

and the dollar is up (or right around even) today too, that makes it even more impressive.  but i agree with a poster above, probably too fast too quick and a correction may be in the cards here shortly.... but you never know.

----------


## georgiaboy

anyone smell commercial mortgage paper burning??

----------


## stag15

> and the dollar is up today too, that makes it even more impressive.  but i agree with a poster above, probably too fast too quick and a correction may be in the cards here shortly.... but you never know.


Somebody big knows something.  They are either buying big or covering, or both.

----------


## Wickwire

> The way this is looking, you might be waiting a long time for $14


I think you may be right.  My gamble of holding out isn't looking too great right now.   I still think it will make at least one more dip though.  Maybe I'll change my buy level to $14.50 or even closer to $15, instead of an even $14.

----------


## stag15

> I think you may be right.  My gamble of holding out isn't looking too great right now.   I still think it will make at least one more dip though.  Maybe I'll change my buy level to $14.50 or even closer to $15, instead of an even $14.


What if silver goes up to $18 before dipping back to its usual $2.  You are back at $16/oz, our current price.

Throw the technicals out of the window, and buy the fundamentals.  Hong Kong just announced they are removing their gold from London.  Rumor is that London doesn't have the gold.  We could be seeing the start of a run on Comex.  Something that people think because it hasn't happened, it won't happen.  

Also, Japan's election is also critical as they will stop propping up our economy.

The perfect storm is brewing, and you are waiting for a $2 pullback?

----------


## Wickwire

> What if silver goes up to $18 before dipping back to its usual $2.  You are back at $16/oz, our current price.
> 
> Throw the technicals out of the window, and buy the fundamentals.  Hong Kong just announced they are removing their gold from London.  Rumor is that London doesn't have the gold.  We could be seeing the start of a run on Comex.  Something that people think because it hasn't happened, it won't happen.  
> 
> Also, Japan's election is also critical as they will stop propping up our economy.
> 
> The perfect storm is brewing, and you are waiting for a $2 pullback?


That's great advice, and you're right about the insignificance of a $2 pullback when compared to the significant market forces that could drive the price way up. 

Let me just say that I already own silver, so no matter what happens, I'm not going to miss the boat.  I bought the majority of my silver at $10/oz and bought more at $12/oz.  In my previous comment, I was just talking about my next move in regard to buying _more_ silver, not saying that I'm waiting for a $2 move to make my first silver purchase.

----------


## stag15

> That's great advice, and you're right about the insignificance of a $2 pullback when compared to the significant market forces that could drive the price way up. 
> 
> Let me just say that I already own silver, so no matter what happens, I'm not going to miss the boat.  I bought the majority of my silver at $10/oz and bought more at $12/oz.  In my previous comment, I was just talking about my next move in regard to buying _more_ silver, not saying that I'm waiting for a $2 move to make my first silver purchase.


Ok, good.  I was under the impression that you were waiting for a dip to make your first purchase.

I am in the same boat.  I just sold 1/5 of my mining stocks and want to put the profits into physical.  I already own a bunch, but I wouldn't mind silver correcting 50 cents before running up to 18.

----------


## Dr.3D

Well, are they going to try to keep the paper price of silver below $16?
We will probably find out today.

----------


## Jordan

Silver isn't going to break $16.30, especially not with as much resistance is there and the fact the jobs report came in better than expected.

And with that, I sold all my nonphysical at $16.25.

----------


## Jordan

Stag15, I don't know how you can continue to say screw technicals when they've been so right for the past few months.  It seems as though you're too emotionally invested with your money.  On the last run up, you were screaming that we were going to $20 only to watch silver stay within the trend and fall to $12.



There's your technicals, take it as you wish.  I see massive resistance at $16.30, also RSI divergence which suggests we're heading lower.  We're due for a hefty correction here, in fact, silver HATES to keep running after moving higher than 75.

Checkout this daily chart:



Huge RSI divergence, a run past 75, and all the makings of another dip to the bottom of the trend coming.  But don't listen to those pesky technicals, BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 

Jesus, this subforum really needs to get off the SHTF and hyperinflation.

----------


## Dr.3D

It is pretty hard to analyze the silver or gold markets as they are controlled markets.
You have to pretty much think like the banks who are controlling them would think.
Once you are thinking like those banks, you should have a pretty good idea of what to expect.

----------


## stag15

> Stag15, I don't know how you can continue to say screw technicals when they've been so right for the past few months.  It seems as though you're too emotionally invested with your money.  On the last run up, you were screaming that we were going to $20 only to watch silver stay within the trend and fall to $12.
> 
> 
> 
> There's your technicals, take it as you wish.  I see massive resistance at $16.30, also RSI divergence which suggests we're heading lower.  We're due for a hefty correction here, in fact, silver HATES to keep running after moving higher than 75.
> 
> Checkout this daily chart:
> 
> 
> ...


What happens when the technicals stop working?  What are you going to do then?  What happens when more countries start asking for their gold/silver located in the London and NY vaults, only to find out it was all leased to someone else?  The answer for me is 'I don't know'.  And that is why don't care about the technicals.  Because you never know when you are going to have a breakout from those trend lines.  And I sure don't want to be holding a bunch of cash when they do break from those trend lines.

Am I that emotionally invested?  I actually sold a bunch of mining stocks yesterday.  The profits will go towards physical.  Nothing emotional there, I just want more physical and less paper.

The only one getting emotional seems to be you.

"Jesus, this subforum really needs to get off the SHTF and hyperinflation"

----------


## Dforkus

Sounds like both of you should go on the record:

Where will silver be at months end, halloween, christmas? If it is, in fact, lower than it is now, screaming buy buy! is in fact an emotional reaction...

Then we can see who is being emotional, and who is being analytical (no whining about 'manipulation' if you are wrong)...

----------


## Jordan

> What happens when the technicals stop working?  What are you going to do then?  What happens when more countries start asking for their gold/silver located in the London and NY vaults, only to find out it was all leased to someone else?  The answer for me is 'I don't know'.  And that is why don't care about the technicals.  Because you never know when you are going to have a breakout from those trend lines.  And I sure don't want to be holding a bunch of cash when they do break from those trend lines.
> 
> Am I that emotionally invested?  I actually sold a bunch of mining stocks yesterday.  The profits will go towards physical.  Nothing emotional there, I just want more physical and less paper.
> 
> The only one getting emotional seems to be you.
> 
> "Jesus, this subforum really needs to get off the SHTF and hyperinflation"


I'd say you're rather emotionally invested, especially with the constant cheerleading of gold and silver and how we're constantly "about to make a big move!"

Is there a chance that the technicals, in the future, may have so substance?  Sure, I'm open to that possibility.  But in the near term, you're losing out huge by denying the obvious reality of today and broadcasting a SHTF scenario.  

I have no problem with the SHTF "wealth protectors."  I have no problem with you guys constantly buying droves of physical metals or even nonphysical, I might think you're protecting yourselves in the wrong way, but even so, I'm not going to be critical.

But one question I do want to ask, is why cant you just buy after a breakout?  I established that the trendline exists at $16.30, where there is huge resistance.  Why not sell at $16.30, and on a breakout buy back in at $16.40.  In that case you would have only lost $.10 per ounce plus 2.4 cents to the spread.  That works out to $.124.

From my charting, I'm looking for a retouch to $14 per share.  Now, that represents a price that is $2.30 cheaper than the upper boundary of the trend.  So, what I basically have to measure is whether a $.124 loss is worth a possible $2.30 gain.  

Mathematically, that would put the odds at 18:1.  Personally, those are very good odds, I'll take them, as I perceive the chance that silver goes back to $14 a 9/10 shot.  Hell, even if you're super optimistic, it would be ridiculous not to take that bet, considering the risk to reward ratio certainly plays out in your favor.

Clearly, though, we don't all value the same thing equally.  What you're saying, through your investments, is that you perceive a breakout to occur in the near term.  And even if you believe there is a 50/50 chance at a breakout, you'd be risking (hypothetical playout of both possibilities) $.248 to make a possible $2.  And maybe you think we'd only dip $1, then you're risking $.248 to make $1.  Clearly, the economic assessment plays in the favor of backing out then rebuying, any other choice other than the economic "rational" I'd declare to be emotional.

PS, just to be fair, you did insist that silver might drop $.50.  Again, the choice theory would suggest that you risk the $.248, even at a 50/50 probability to win $.50.  Am I wrong?

----------


## stag15

> I'd say you're rather emotionally invested, especially with the constant cheerleading of gold and silver and how we're constantly "about to make a big move!"
> 
> Is there a chance that the technicals, in the future, may have so substance?  Sure, I'm open to that possibility.  But in the near term, you're losing out huge by denying the obvious reality of today and broadcasting a SHTF scenario.  
> 
> I have no problem with the SHTF "wealth protectors."  I have no problem with you guys constantly buying droves of physical metals or even nonphysical, I might think you're protecting yourselves in the wrong way, but even so, I'm not going to be critical.
> 
> But one question I do want to ask, is why cant you just buy after a breakout?  I established that the trendline exists at $16.30, where there is huge resistance.  Why not sell at $16.30, and on a breakout buy back in at $16.40.  In that case you would have only lost $.10 per ounce plus 2.4 cents to the spread.  That works out to $.124.
> 
> From my charting, I'm looking for a retouch to $14 per share.  Now, that represents a price that is $2.30 cheaper than the upper boundary of the trend.  So, what I basically have to measure is whether a $.124 loss is worth a possible $2.30 gain.  
> ...


I completely agree.  That is why I sold my miners yesterday, because I knew the price run up was too much too fast.  My advice isn't for the traders, but for people interested in wealth preservation.

I don't know if I have ever used the term 'SHTF', and if I have I am sorry.  I know I haven't used it on this thread, so please don't associate me with this term.  I don't agree with the 'SHTF' scenario, as I believe most people will deal with the cards dealt to them.  My concern is more for people who don't have any metal whatsoever and are trying to figure if they should buy or not.  If the technicals stop working, and the dollar falls 5% or more in a day, these people won't know what to do.  They will then question a possible pullback, and what if it doesn't happen and the dollar falls another 5+% the next day?  I am sure this happens to people in countries where the currency goes into hyperinflation.  No one wants to be holding loads of cash when the currency really starts to devalue.  Are we going into hyperinflation?  No, not now, and maybe not for many more years.  Can you gaurantee in 5-10 years that we won't have inflation in the double digits?  Nobody can.

----------


## ctiger2

> IWhy not sell at $16.30, and on a breakout buy back in at $16.40.  In that case you would have only lost $.10 per ounce plus 2.4 cents to the spread.  That works out to $.124.


One thing that always throws me off a bit when I read comments like this is to remind myself that you're talking about *paper* silver. Personally, I'm not a big fan of paper silver or gold. Sure you can trade it while that market is still functioning, but if something goes awry in those markets, you might end up holding nothing in the end. There's way too much net chatter about naked shorts and the metals vaults just being empty to risk it. Heck, just yesterday we all read that Japan wants it's physical gold moved from London to Japan. I've read that London doesn't have their gold or leased it out or something. The paper game is just a gamble I'm not willing to take at this point.

----------


## Jordan

> One thing that always throws me off a bit when I read comments like this is to remind myself that you're talking about *paper* silver. Personally, I'm not a big fan of paper silver or gold. Sure you can trade it while that market is still functioning, but if something goes awry in those markets, you might end up holding nothing in the end. There's way too much net chatter about naked shorts and the metals vaults just being empty to risk it. Heck, just yesterday we all read that Japan wants it's physical gold moved from London to Japan. I've read that London doesn't have their gold or leased it out or something. The paper game is just a gamble I'm not willing to take at this point.


To each their own.

For me, it goes back to the choice theory.  Frankly, dabbling in the paper markets right now is worth it, as I get very small spreads and leverage of up to 30:1.  I foresee a limited chance that the market is going to break down.  Plus, my FRNs are still being accepted everywhere I shop.  But hey, I've made it plenty clear I enjoy risk, and the returns generated from said risk.  You might also make the argument I trade paper stocks, as I trade options.  

If it weren't for leverage, I wouldn't buy PMs.  I'm no millionaire, and I certainly don't have enough money to live off the interest.  Wealth preservation comes second to growing my wealth right now, something you can't do by purchasing PMs without leverage.

----------


## stag15

> One thing that always throws me off a bit when I read comments like this is to remind myself that you're talking about *paper* silver. Personally, I'm not a big fan of paper silver or gold. Sure you can trade it while that market is still functioning, but if something goes awry in those markets, you might end up holding nothing in the end. There's way too much net chatter about naked shorts and the metals vaults just being empty to risk it. Heck, just yesterday we all read that Japan wants it's physical gold moved from London to Japan. I've read that London doesn't have their gold or leased it out or something. The paper game is just a gamble I'm not willing to take at this point.


This is why I only hold the miners, and I use the profits from the miners to buy physical.  I also hold some oil companies, but that is mainly for dividends.  Otherwise I have zero trust for the the paper/electronic market system.  If we have a bank holiday (don't know what the chances are right now), I don't want to be holding paper promises.

----------


## Wickwire

> There's your technicals, take it as you wish.  I see massive resistance at $16.30, also RSI divergence which suggests we're heading lower.  We're due for a hefty correction here, in fact, silver HATES to keep running after moving higher than 75.


You may be on to something with your prediction of resistance at $16.30.  We'll see how the rest of the day goes before I officially hand you your crown as silver king.

----------


## stag15

Hey Jordan,

What do you think about today?  The dollar completely reversed, yet silver is still sitting at 16.20.  Do you think this is a sign that we drop back down?  Gold is hanging around the 995 level as well.

----------


## PaulaGem

> You may be on to something with your prediction of resistance at $16.30.  We'll see how the rest of the day goes before I officially hand you your crown as silver king.


I don't see resistance points as speicifics, but general areas.   I think the longer we hang in the $15-$16 area the more likely it is that a break over that is for real.

The next move will hit another area of resistance around $20.   The same thing will happen there.

Fast moves are apt to be manipulated, slow moves are more likely to be genuine.

The manipulators play a cost & reward game.   If they have to shell out too much to force a move it doesn't happen.   The ride down from $20 was cheap because there was little resistance and they knew that there was a time of economic destabilization coming which would grease the skids.

Now they are covering and collecting profits.   This is being done carefully and slowly so their buys are at the lowest possible price.   If the pace picks up they have either covered or a new variable has entered the equation.

Once they cover they will pump back to a level that they can short again.  It's an endless cycle.

----------


## stag15

Jordan, silver is up over 16.30 today.  Is it buying time?

----------


## PaulaGem

The virtual metals marke is Wall Street's supreme con.   Lots of people are going to get hurt there.

----------


## ctiger2

> Jordan, silver is up over 16.30 today.  Is it buying time?


US Markets are closed today.   World markets showing small gain though...

----------


## stag15

> US Markets are closed today.   World markets showing small gain though...


His technicals don't include world market prices?

----------


## PaulaGem

> His technicals don't include world market prices?


Comex is figured on London close.

----------


## Jordan

There's a reason I indicated giving up a dime on the rally above $16.30.  The resistance line, in this case, is more a resistance area than a predetermined level.

I wouldn't be buying here, at least not until we clear $16.40.  We're coming into a pennant flag, with the SMA50 (1hr) keeping prices up but there is surely plenty of resistance at $16.30-.40.

I'm also seeing RSI divergence on the 3hr chart.  The price has treaded slightly higher but the RSI is coming off its strength.  Also, a MACD cross (3hr) shows a short.  A touch to 77 on the RSI (daily) sent silver prices plummeting in each of the two prior tops, and guess where we touched this time? 

Not to be super ambiguous, but I'm still thinking we could go either way.  Unfortunately, all today's action comes without any affect from the US, so we do have lighter volume.

tl;dr:  No position until US trading impacts tomorrow's trade.  Going into tonight should be the residually weak Asian metals trade.  Look for a big move in either direction on Tuesday's US open.

----------


## stag15

Silver just broke 16.40, do with buy with both hands?

----------


## tmosley

Whether or not you buy depends on whether you have any money with which to buy

----------


## NinjaPirate

> Whether or not you buy depends on whether you have any money with which to buy


Bwaaaaaaahhhh.

----------


## stag15

Jordan, you must be bullish?  Silver at $16.80, the dollar is down 1% this morning?  Dollar broke some serious support.  Next support at 74.

----------


## Cowlesy

> Silver just broke 16.40, do with buy with both hands?


I hope you were buying with both hands when Silver was at $9 or so several months ago.

If Silver notches up another buck I may start selling into the strength, and buy it back when it dips.

(yes, I know most are going to say IF it dips, but it will)

----------


## LibertyIn08

> I hope you were buying with both hands when Silver was at $9 or so several months ago.
> 
> If Silver notches up another buck I may start selling into the strength, and buy it back when it dips.
> 
> (yes, I know most are going to say IF it dips, but it will)


Oscillators and my magic 8 ball say a dip is 100% assured.  

We are quite over-bought.

----------


## ctiger2

> If Silver notches up another buck I may start selling into the strength, and buy it back when it dips.


Yes, sell the paper for physical.

----------


## PaulaGem

> Oscillators and my magic 8 ball say a dip is 100% assured.  
> 
> We are quite over-bought.


Over bought can also be the beginning of a breakout.



Check out the moneyflow and the candlestick rockets.

----------


## tmosley

With China buying like it is now, selling would be foolish.  You should wait until the suckers have finished selling and world stocks have been depleted before selling.  China has as much as said that they are going to keep buying no matter what.  If you hold out for a few weeks (at least until October, the traditional down month for silver), you can cash out at what is likely to be a local top.  Personally, I'm not selling until I can get the kind of purchasing power I think I ought to be able to get for it.  And by that, I mean at least a fifth of what an equivalent mass of gold will get me today.

----------


## PaulaGem

> With China buying like it is now, selling would be foolish.  You should wait until the suckers have finished selling and world stocks have been depleted before selling.  China has as much as said that they are going to keep buying no matter what.  If you hold out for a few weeks (at least until October, the traditional down month for silver), you can cash out at what is likely to be a local top.  Personally, I'm not selling until I can get the kind of purchasing power I think I ought to be able to get for it.  And by that, I mean at least a fifth of what an equivalent mass of gold will get me today.


And how long to you think that will take?   Just curious, I won't hold you to it

----------


## tmosley

I couldn't say.  The COMEX will have to go bust for it to happen, and I thought that was going to happen last December.  It could happen tomorrow, or it could happen five years from now (after a spectacular rally in both gold and silver as the dollar declines).  My guess is that it will happen sooner rather than later, as I would bet that China has a lot of money in futures markets for both gold and silver.  Once they have accumulated enough physical gold and silver, they will stop rolling over their contracts, and gain either from taking possession of the metals at depressed prices, or from busting the COMEX and dispelling all paper gold and silver in the world.

Basically, once the people lose faith in government institutions as they are proven to be bankrupt, traders will arrive at a real price based on the amount of silver in people's hands.  As the physical supply of silver is at all time lows, I would suspect that the price will adjust accordingly.  I could even imagine a situation where physical silver becomes more valuable than gold, though that would require a robust rebound combined with an energy crisis and widescale nationalization and subsequent mismanagement of silver mines such that silver is in demand at any price, and there isn't much being produced.

----------


## legion

> Over bought can also be the beginning of a breakout.
> 
> Check out the moneyflow and the candlestick rockets.


You're analyzing commodities like they are some sort of pink sheet.

Physical things do not "break out," unless the physical thing is a teenager..

What's gold going to do to break out? Release a super good 10-Q?

----------


## tremendoustie

> You're analyzing commodities like they are some sort of pink sheet.
> 
> Physical things do not "break out," unless the physical thing is a teenager..
> 
> What's gold going to do to break out? Release a super good 10-Q?


How about if government releases a particularly bad one? As in, way in debt, getting further in debt, and printing money like there's no tomorrow?

Money can get pretty cheap, pretty fast. History certainly has shown that.

----------


## PaulaGem

> You're analyzing commodities like they are some sort of pink sheet.
> 
> Physical things do not "break out," unless the physical thing is a teenager..
> 
> What's gold going to do to break out? Release a super good 10-Q?


The reason pink sheets move the way they do is they are highly manipulated.

The metals markets are just about as manipulated as a pink sheet, so why not?

The metals market no longer is about "physical things".

What would you call that thing on the chart at this time last year, that spike from this same level to over $20?   Breakout sounds good to me.

Looking at that chart again and the strong base built by covering, I think the next peak should be over $30 before a retrace.

----------


## stag15

Jordan, silver is at 17.30 and gold 1016.  What are the technicals saying?  Should we be buying or selling?

----------

