# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Silver is on sale!

## gls

Down almost 6% ATM. It's amazing the faith people still have in the USD.

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## Original_Intent

BTFD

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## seraphson

You know why it decided to take such a dip? Because I JUST bought 100oz the other day at about 31.5/oz. seeing as it's been a month of rather steady movement. I thought I did good'. NOPE. Sorry Bill not today, not never. Long live Murphy's' Law.

HAHA! Look at that, down $2.65 now! I can't win!

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## Dr.3D

They have been pumping up the dollar index.  I guess that would explain some of what is happening.

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## Johnnybags

When the only thing on the books with a cap gain for the year is PM's you take the profit to offset the losses. Look for OIL to drop too the next two weeks.

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## xFiFtyOnE

Now if only people would start pricing silver coins an bullion to match the f'ing spot price....

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## gls

> Now if people will start pricing silver coins an bullion to match the f'ing spot price....


http://www.providentmetals.com/1-oz-...r-buffalo.html

Buffalo rounds for .69 over spot

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## Dr.3D

> Now if people will start pricing silver coins an bullion to match the f'ing spot price....


Well, you are comparing paper silver to physical silver.   There has been a disconnect for quite some time now.  There will always be more paper silver than physical. Well, at least till the scam is revealed.

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## unknown

The "Federal Reserve" said that they wouldnt be adding liquidity or expanding the money supply, which is good for the dollar.  In reality they probably are but publicly.    

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-stimulus.html

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## xFiFtyOnE

> Well, you are comparing paper silver to physical silver.   There has been a disconnect for quite some time now.  There will always be more paper silver than physical. Well, at least till the scam is revealed.


Who said anything about paper?

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## Dr.3D

> Who said anything about paper?


That's what the spot price represents.

Edit: I guess I should clarify my statement.
Please do a web search for the term "paper silver" that should start you on the right track.

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## brandon

Its only because I bought a bunch of slv last month. Don't worry, once I sell it will bounce right back.

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## Brian4Liberty

Deflation before inflation...

Off the top of my head, isn't this about the dollar gaining due to the Euro falling?

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## Brian4Liberty

Also there's always some tax related selling at the end of the year. Gotta love it when government interferes.

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## Gaddafi Duck

> Well, you are comparing paper silver to physical silver.   There has been a disconnect for quite some time now.  There will always be more paper silver than physical. Well, at least till the scam is revealed.


*Question: Am I only allowed to short the futures market if I have the physical gold/silver/wheat/oil in my actual possession? If the answer to that question is "Of course not" then you'll always have more paper than physical. That's the whole $#@!ing point. That's how the system is supposed to work, and it's completely legitimate.* How do you think ranchers work? When they have to contract an entire year's supply of soybean meal? They buy product that doesn't exist yet. The crush facility that produces the meal promises it'll be there for pickup at each of the contract dates. The crush facility then buys soybean meal contracts for each month of the meal they contracted to sell to the rancher in order to hedge against volatile prices. The rancher sells soybean meal contracts to hedge their bet as well. This all happens in advance when no product yet exists. Is this a scam? Or is this just how the market has worked for hundreds of years? There's a reason why you can go to the store and buy steak or go to KFC and they'll have chicken, or why there's milk for your cereal, or why there's gas at a gas station to fill your car up with. Because if there was no futures market, we wouldn't have any of these commodities available at affordable prices and there would be countless producers and refiners going bankrupt year after year because they bought a bushel of beans at $14/bushel, only to have their purchase plunge to $10/bushel forcing them to lose $4/bushel because the futures market wasn't there to have them lock in their $14/bushel purchase. And you can't have a liquid or efficient futures market without having more paper than physical. Sorry, but it's a far cry from fractional reserve banking, my friend, if that's what you think it equates to. 

See, comments like these drive me up the wall. When people who don't understand the purpose of futures and their role as a risk management tool for the overall market.  

There's always more paper everything than physical. That's how the commodities world works...agriculture, metals, energy, that's the entire point of the paper market. It's there to be a hedge device for producers and holders of commodities. If you had to wait until you refined every ounce of silver or grew every bushel of wheat, there wouldn't be much of a $#@!in' futures market, nor a purpose for it. THAT'S WHY IT'S CALLED "FUTURES". You contract INTO the future in anticipation of what you have. It's completely legitimate. What happens if you don't have those bushels and someone seeks to take delivery and you haven't closed out of your position? Same thing happens anytime you make a contract on the market and can't deliver. No different from someone writing a contract to have a construction company build a new house. If they don't do it, they better remedy the situation. Same thing with futures. 

 The vast majority of contracts never go to delivery, and why would they? The futures market is there to make sure prices for producers, refiners, and consumers are locked in so they aren't open ended in case the market moves against them. I mean if you think the entire $#@!ing futures industry is a scam, then you need to step away from the David Morgan BS and actually work with futures to understand how they work.

How do you expect farmers to hedge new crop one year out if the bushels of wheat aren't grown yet? According to you, that's part of the "scam" that needs to be revealed. 

I suppose the tens of thousands of farmers across the nation are conspiring as well. Probably not, but having a wet dream that there's JP Morgan and other executives in a dark room "manipulating" silver specifically is pretty entertaining.

And there hasn't been that big of a disconnect between buying physical silver and the futures market whatsoever. I can still buy 100 oz. silver bars for less than $1.70/oz over spot. Not bad when you figure in profit margins for the dealer to buy from the refiner and to sell to someone like myself.

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## Gaddafi Duck

> They have been pumping up the dollar index.  I guess that would explain some of what is happening.


Who is "they"? This is how markets tend to work. The Dollar has been heavily sold and only recently has it climbed upward. Apparently anytime there's a rally in an asset YOU don't like (Bonds, the Dollar, the Euro, etc.) or a sell off in an asset YOU like (Gold, silver, etc.) then it's someone pumping or dumping. Get real. Look at charts across every market since their existence. You'll find there's periods of big rallies with corrections and huge selloffs with big bounces. 

It's how markets work. Gold and silver have had massive rallies since ten years ago. The fact that they're taking a break is hardly an indication of manipulation. Every $#@!ing market works like this. Look around. You'll see rallies, sell offs, corrections, bounces, it's all a part of the market and it doing its job.

But then again, you're obsessing over a day or two's move in the market. That could be why I feel like I'm wasting my time trying to explain this.

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## seraphson

What the hell, I got cash to burn (that isn't already reserved for the campaign)...I've been trying to keep my silver to cash ratio 1:1 but now my stored cash is exceeding my silver by 2:1 if not more. I've been watching some stuff from Celente and browsing other opinions and a lot of it seems to go mostly commoties; little faith in dollars. If you were in my position would you take it easy or keep dipping into the silver or even go further and make you cash to silver ratio 1:2?

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## newbitech

this is dollar strengthening as a safe haven play.  plus commodities have been way overbought, the fed is pretending it doesn't have huge amounts of debt to cancel through monetization, and Euro confidence being trashed.  The bad news is, once this trade unwinds and Europe does what it can to salvage it's economy, all eye will turn back to the USD and the revaluation that will occur will be a bigger shock than gold moving 100 bucks to the down side.

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## devil21

Sure is looking a lot like 2008 all over again.  We know how that ended up.  

Premiums at APMEX are now up to around $5/oz!

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## ctb619

> Sure is looking a lot like 2008 all over again.  We know how that ended up.  
> 
> Premiums at APMEX are now up to around $5/oz!


Wow! You can pick up Buffalo rounds at Provident Metals for $0.69 over spot.

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## Seraphim

Yeah they are doing it in the background bit by bit rather then publicly announcing godzilla sized bond purcahses.

Also from your link:

Theres increasing appetite for dip-buying, Nishi said. Stocks probably wont drop much lower.

I view this as accurate. Currency depreciation is becoming more and more known. BTFD or watch your cash burn longterm.






> The "Federal Reserve" said that they wouldnt be adding liquidity or expanding the money supply, which is good for the dollar.  In reality they probably are but publicly.    
> 
> http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-stimulus.html

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## Steven Douglas

> There's always more paper everything than physical. That's how the commodities world works...agriculture, metals, energy, that's the entire point of the paper market. It's there to be a hedge device for producers and holders of commodities. If you had to wait until you refined every ounce of silver or grew every bushel of wheat, there wouldn't be much of a $#@!in' futures market, nor a purpose for it.


There is no homogeneous "commodities".  Soft and hard commodities are two entirely different animals, with a different set of dynamics and underlying fundamentals. 

The futures markets for perishable commodities work very well, I think, but only because seasonal demand and supply cycles of soft commodities keep prices in check. The paper representing them is constantly being created and destroyed in the short term, and does not float forever, as they tend to track and balance finite seasonal production to demand and consumption.  That does not mean these markets are not subject to manipulation - they are. However, manipulation is a two-edged sword, as all the competing paper are constantly adjusting relative to perceived, expected, and actual supply, which holds everything, and everyone, in check.  

Underlying demand and supply cycles exist with hard commodities as well (as with mining/refining versus industrial consumption), but that is only a part of the fundamentals. Actual nonperishable supplies are not naturally cleared and accounted for annually, the way soft commodities are, and as a result the above ground supply, can be, and is constantly, distorted, as futures give birth to a wide variety of long term derivatives that are more akin to financial assets, the paper of which can indeed be inflated - and routinely are in a way that does not in any way resemble the soft commodities market.

Such hard commodity distortions go away in the case of a natural physical shortage, as when annual consumption exceeds annual below ground supply. This is a "physical shortage" when we consider two distinct supply sources -- annual production versus above ground holdings, or "reserves". The fact that both might be available on the open market is incidental.  In the case of industrial consumption, the buyer _always takes delivery_. Annual production that does not keep pace with industrial consumption is compensated by tapping into above ground "reserves".  That particular fundamental is not only finite, but is also not reflected in the ever-expanding paper derivatives, so many of which are tied into options for delivery or "multiple conflicting claims on the same physical". 

Eventually, above ground holdings, or open market reserves, diminish to the point where the tightened above ground supply becomes obvious to everyone. Not by anyone's estimation, but by real constraints on availability.  At that point all paper becomes volatile, as margin calls tighten along with supply, as everyone makes a grab for the remaining physical.  That is when supply and demand cycles become much closer in resemblance to the dynamics of soft commodities. That also means a massive deflation of paper derivatives, and increase in price, as paper finally recouples with the hard commodity it represents. 

Now, even if there is a case of "fake shortage", where, for example, someone has deliberately and secretly stored a massive stockpile of silver and held it in reserve for later sale, the fundamental that siphoned down the above ground supply in the first place will not have changed. The market will continue to siphon even that supply as it is made available, until, once again, the fundamentals are closer to that of soft commodities. 

Those are the fundamentals, which have nothing to do with whether or not COMEX, JPM or anyone else in back rooms are colluding to manipulate paper and prices.   

My thoughts on why the sudden recent drop: 

The vast majority bought gold and silver on spec, while others bought as a form of "closing their eyes and holding their breath".  Whether they bought it on long term expectations or not, demands for cash in the current economy are rampant - especially at this time of year.  A lot of "investors" bought without regard to whether they could hold their breath, and are forced to exhale, forced to liquidate their holdings (paper or physical).  They need cash, and they need it now, of all times. 

So, buy more on the massive dip, because it really is a temporary windfall, regardless what caused it.  Meanwhile, none of the fundamentals, or the end game, have changed - especially for silver.

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## Inflation

These companies have amazing assets, yet are testing 52 weeks lows.

I'm doubling down, cutting my average share cost by 25%.

At these prices they are prime targets for acquisition/buyouts.

In order of descending desirability (get the top 14 ASAP):

USSIF - US SILVER CORPORATION    (Idaho producer)

CGR - CLAUDE RESOURCES    (Canada gold producer)

OSKFF - Osisko Mining         (Quebec gold producer)

BRD - Brigus Gold         (Canada producer)

CMCXF - CMC METALS    (Yukon AG producer)

WLDVF - Wildcat Silver    (Arizona developer)

RVRCF - REVOLUTION RESOURCES    (Carolina gold developer)

RTRAF - ROMARCO MINERALS        (Carolina gold developer)

ATADF - ATAC RESOURCES            (Yukon gold developer)

KMKGF -  Kaminak Gold Corp             (Yukon explorer)

GMLFF - Global Minerals        (Slovakia AG/CU developer)

UXG - US Gold            (AU/AG explorer)

SVROF - SILVER PREDATOR                (Yukon explorer)

GPRXF - GOLDEN PREDATOR               (Yukon explorer)

GGCRF - SILVERMEX RESOURCES    (Mexico producer)

CRECF - CRITICAL ELEMENTS         (Canada rare earth explorer)

BGAVF - BRAVADA GOLD                 (Nevada developer)

NQEXF - NQ EXPLORATION                (Canada AU/AG/CU)

NFRGF - NORTHERN FREEGOLD         (Yukon AU/AG developer)

PNCKF -  Pure Nickel Inc        (Alaska Ni/PGM explorer)

BNRJF - BENTON RESOURCES (Canada Au/PGM explorer)

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## schiffheadbaby

only thing i worry about with the miners is nationalization.  

this tail risk needs to be factored in.  Will concede much higher upside,

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## Blueskies

I think silver will break below $20.

Buying silver for a long term investment is solid, but anyone who wants to trade it in within 1-5 years should reconsider IMO.

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## heavenlyboy34

> Down almost 6% ATM. It's amazing the faith people still have in the USD.


You would probably have faith in the USD too if you knew that the US regime has billions of dollars of weapons and troops, not to mention the stupidity to use them on a whim.

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## cubical

> These companies have amazing assets, yet are testing 52 weeks lows.
> 
> I'm doubling down, cutting my average share cost by 25%.
> 
> At these prices they are prime targets for acquisition/buyouts.
> 
> In order of descending desirability (get the top 14 ASAP):
> 
> USSIF - US SILVER CORPORATION    (Idaho producer)
> ...


Either you have a lot of money to invest or the transaction costs will eat you alive.

Buy royalty companies. Mining costs will skyrocket when inflation hits hard. Royalty companies are shielded from that and participate only on the upside. SLW, SNDXF.pk, FNV, RGLD are all good picks. I sold my gold miners and will be adding to my royalties.

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## heavenlyboy34

> only thing i worry about with the miners is nationalization.  
> 
> this tail risk needs to be factored in.  Will concede much higher upside,


OMG, almost forgot about that.  That would be vewwy, vewwy bad.

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## Inflation

Transactions cost $4 at optionshouse, plus new accounts get 100 free trades.  That helped me buy tiny bits of many different companies.

I'm not trading, just investing.

Buy-and-hold, then buy more.

Not ever going to sell anything with silver anywhere under $50.

Maybe I'll get RGLD someday but I don't like streamers, ETFs, or mutual funds because they all introduce additional counterparty risk.

Paper is risky enough already!

My little explorers get bought out, popping up much higher than giants like SLW.

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## cubical

> Transactions cost $4 at optionshouse, plus new accounts get 100 free trades.  That helped me buy tiny bits of many different companies.
> 
> I'm not trading, just investing.
> 
> Buy-and-hold, then buy more.
> 
> Not ever going to sell anything with silver anywhere under $50.
> 
> Maybe I'll get RGLD someday but I don't like streamers, ETFs, or mutual funds because they all introduce additional counterparty risk.
> ...


What counter party risk is there that is not there with owning the mine outright? The mine has to produce either way and with a royalty company you have a diversified basket of miners who you are dealing with. Of course junior miners are more reward and more risk for now, but inflation will hit their production costs as hard or harder than the big boys.

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## Inflation

> What counter party risk is there that is not there with owning the mine outright?


Good question.  

The management, etc. of the streaming company are the additional risky counterparties.

I don't want anyone coming between me and the nice miners who I am lending my capital to.

Look what happened to Silver Wheaton when there was (market perception of) turmoil among their very small staff:




> When Barnes unexpectedly tendered his resignation last month, Smallwood was handed the keys to one of the most successful Vancouver business stories of the last decade.
> 
> He spent the next few days hunkered down with the company’s key investors and major funds, convincing them the leadership change was well planned.
> 
> “The change looks very sudden on the outside, but it wasn’t on the inside,” Smallwood said.
> 
> Of course, that depends on how you look at it.
> 
> Barnes had never discussed or put a date on retirement during recent marketing campaigns.
> ...





> On April 11th, Peter Barnes resigned as CEO of Silver Wheaton and was replaced by then President Randy Smallwood. Investors are wondering how Randy will continue Silver Wheaton’s momentum. Mining companies will be averse to signing a silver stream contract at $3.90 per ounce when the spot price is $35. A significant upfront payment will be required to make the transaction attractive from the mining companies’ perspective.
> 
> Media reports of fund managers calling for $50-100 silver makes Silver Wheaton’s job of attracting new streams much more difficult.
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/2700...e-next-chapter





> *Silver Wheaton Corporation: Lackluster performance of late*
> 
> We are struggling to understand just why silver prices are doing so well and yet the stock price of Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW) has been lackluster over recent weeks. One explanation could that the resignation of Peter Barnes has had an effect, as changes at the top of any organization sometimes do.
> 
> http://www.silver-prices.net/home/20...e-of-late.html

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## legion

> words


Every time gold/silver dives, Gaddafi Duck is here to prove to himself he's still a sophisticated investor. 

Someone has trouble accepting they made a bad bet.

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## cubical

> Good question.  
> 
> The management, etc. of the streaming company are the additional risky counterparties.
> 
> I don't want anyone coming between me and the nice miners who I am lending my capital to.
> 
> Look what happened to Silver Wheaton when there was (market perception of) turmoil among their very small staff:


If you think it will be a problem acquiring streams for a good price, you should certainly be worried about mines being able to afford to pull the shiny stuff out of the ground. Whenever a good CEO leaves the stock takes a hit. It doesn't mean their business model is dead, not by a long shot.

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## gls

bump for continued buying opportunity...

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## Brian4Liberty

Who's buying today?

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## roho76

Me.

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## xFiFtyOnE

Me!

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## Seraphim

soon. 




> Who's buying today?

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## Brian4Liberty

> Me.





> Me!


Count me in. Gold and silver. I use CEF for ease of trading. Yeah, I know it's just paper, but it's a bit more trustworthy than some of the other ETF options.

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## newbitech

I'd be tempted again at $25/ounce total cost of ownership in my hand.

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## airborne373

Just picked up 20 Silver Maples for $27 a piece from my local coin dealer. I always buy local to save on shipping and premiums. The dealer I use charges $1 premium for Silver Eagle and $25 for Gold Eagle and spot on one ounce Krugerrands.

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## Steven Douglas

Do I listen?  Nah, I'm not a trucker. I always give 'er the gas on the downgrades, and decelerate on the upgrades. And brakes? What brakes?

Of course I'm buying. Never stopped.

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## Brian4Liberty

Thinking about 2012...how much will the Euro deteriorate vs. the US Dollar? I am thinking that a strengthening dollar may result in lower prices for metals next year...

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## cubical

> Thinking about 2012...how much will the Euro deteriorate vs. the US Dollar? I am thinking that a strengthening dollar may result in lower prices for metals next year...


The ECB is printing, which will stabilize the Euro(contradicting statement?), the US and the Euro will race to the bottom I am sure, but the US has the advantage of being tagged as a "safe haven" for now.

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## ronpaulfollower999

Just loaded up on junk so expect another drop tomorrow. 

I really do prefer to wait these things out but it's hard to get silver when it hits bottom.

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## Steven Douglas

> I really do prefer to wait these things out but it's hard to get silver when it hits bottom.


A lot of people don't realize that as a dynamic, but that's exactly right.  Silver is a lot easier to catch while it's in motion, and has momentum.

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## Arklatex

Just purchased a roll of my favorite coins!

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## Gideon

> Just picked up 20 Silver Maples for $27 a piece from my local coin dealer. I always buy local to save on shipping and premiums. The dealer I use charges $1 premium for Silver Eagle and $25 for Gold Eagle and spot on one ounce Krugerrands.


You are the BIG winner!

With Ag at an average of $35/oz. for 2011, you hit the fire sale.

I will be shocked if anyone gets a better bargain than you did, on the retail end.

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## Danke

> Just loaded up on junk so expect another drop tomorrow. 
> 
> I really do prefer to wait these things out but it's hard to get silver when it hits bottom.


Ya,  this downward trend is my fault as i recently plugged PMs.

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## youngbuck

> 


Eastbound I-70, on it's way into the Denver metro area, several miles before C-470.

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## Jandrsn21

EXK all I can say! Fundamentals are very sound and it allows one to day trade like none other! I've got the blinders on and I'm making some trades with this one!

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## heavenlyboy34

Which vendor is the best?  I'd love to get me some more silver!

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## Seraphim

The one that takes cash on the spot and gives you a market balanced price .




> Which vendor is the best?  I'd love to get me some more silver!

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## Freedom 4 all

Bought a bunch of silver at $39 and feel like a $#@!ing moron right now. Part of me wants to buy more, but the other part worries it will go down to like $5. This drop makes no goddamn sense. Fiat is devaluing at the same rate it has been in the past when silver was soaring. What gives?

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## cubical

> Bought a bunch of silver at $39 and feel like a $#@!ing moron right now. Part of me wants to buy more, but the other part worries it will go down to like $5. This drop makes no goddamn sense. Fiat is devaluing at the same rate it has been in the past when silver was soaring. What gives?


I have a feeling the $10 you lost and especially the $5 you fear you may lose now will be insignificant 5 years from now.

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## Gideon

> Bought a bunch of silver at $39 and feel like a $#@!ing moron right now. Part of me wants to buy more, but the other part worries it will go down to like $5. This drop makes no goddamn sense. Fiat is devaluing at the same rate it has been in the past when silver was soaring. What gives?


At the time you bought it, $39 was a good price.

I sold some silver last week for $30 an ounce. For the buyer, that was a good price, but not so much for me. Get it?

Ag is back up to $28.50 spot, so I would not wait around for $5 if you are thinking of exchanging those FRNs for the white metal.

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## Freedom 4 all

> I have a feeling the $10 you lost and especially the $5 you fear you may lose now will be insignificant 5 years from now.


You're probably right and I am not about to jump the silver ship any time soon. I always saw it as kind of like betting on horses. Precious metal is an overall strong horse that is doing a bit poor lately. Fiat is a horse that is suffering from some kind of horribly degenerative disease and is bleeding from several open wounds that are left untreated. For a long race, the smart choice is obvious. It's just kind of scary to see the market and PMs go down at the same time. That's something that seems to go against the grain of everything I understand about economics.

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## devil21

> Bought a bunch of silver at $39 and feel like a $#@!ing moron right now. Part of me wants to buy more, but the other part worries it will go down to like $5. This drop makes no goddamn sense. Fiat is devaluing at the same rate it has been in the past when silver was soaring. What gives?


You havent lost anything until you sell.  Just hang onto it.  On a positive note, if it did go back to $5 it would probably mean that Ron Paul won the presidency 

Equities and PMs pretty much always move together since they are both hedges against the dollar.

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## MRoCkEd

I had a dream last night that Peter Schiff sold his silver but was still pumping it up on CNBC. "It's only a temporary drop because I sold my silver!" lulz

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## Brian4Liberty

> Bought a bunch of silver at $39 and feel like a $#@!ing moron right now. Part of me wants to buy more, but the other part worries it will go down to like $5. This drop makes no goddamn sense. Fiat is devaluing at the same rate it has been in the past when silver was soaring. What gives?


Did you go all in at that time? Best to spread it out so you have some cash to invest when the big sale happens, like it did last week.

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## Athanasius

how often do you folks buy silver and what percentage of your income do you spend on in that interval?
i'm pretty new to buying silver, but at the moment i'm exchanging about 10% of my income about every two months or when it drops like last week.

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## The Freethinker

> how often do you folks buy silver and what percentage of your income do you spend on in that interval?
> i'm pretty new to buying silver, but at the moment i'm exchanging about 10% of my income about every two months or when it drops like last week.


Dollar cost average your purchases. Right now it's still a good time to buy as silver is below $29.50 an ounce.

Each person's situation is unique. One person may be able to afford 5 to 10 ounces per purchase whereas another person may have the means to purchase 1,000 ounces when it's time to buy (I know somebody who literally purchased 1,000 ounces of silver at one time and that was to reinforce positions he already had).

Do what you can. Better to start late than never to do so. You already know to buy the dips. Accumulate. Everyone started with no silver, built up to a little, and so on.

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## purepaloma

> Which vendor is the best?  I'd love to get me some more silver!


Scottsdale Silver is one of the top.  Free Shipping options, accepts paypal, and the brand typically has a higher resale premium on ebay than other brands.

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