# Lifestyles & Discussion > Open Discussion >  Fantasy Football 2014

## Bastiat's The Law

*Who's interested in the annual fantasy league?*



Hey guys, I'll be doing several unique fantasy football leagues this season.  I usually give my fantasy leagues a theme to make it more interesting.  All these leagues will be free through Yahoo with each containing 20 teams broken down into 4 divisions. We will utilize PPR and IDP. It's definitely not a standard cookie-cutter league, but if you're open-minded I think you'd really enjoy the league.

*League Name*: RPF Fantasy Football League

*NFL 2014 Regular Season Kickoff*: Thursday September 4, 2014  

*League ID*: Ron Paul Forums Fantasy Football 2014 

*Current Teams*: 14 of 20

*Live Draft Time*: Sunday August 10th @ 2:00pm CDT (This is flexible) 

*Link To Join*: PM me your email address or post it in this thread

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## Bastiat's The Law

I'll be renewing the Ron Paul league from last season and creating some new themed leagues.

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## Bastiat's The Law

The league is now open.  If you were in the league last season check your email, you should've received an invite.

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## James Madison

I'm in.

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## Christian Liberty

I'm in.

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## Bastiat's The Law

Updated the OP.

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## Christian Liberty

email address: cooked1112@yahoo.com

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## thoughtomator

Eager to defend my championship - sign me up! Email in your PM box.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Eager to defend my championship - sign me up! Email in your PM box.


Sent invite!

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## thoughtomator

Got it. Settings unchanged from last year?

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## Nirvikalpa

Hmm, didn't get an email.  republiic@yahoo.com [two i's], pls

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## Bastiat's The Law

> email address: cooked1112@yahoo.com


Did you make it in?

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## brandon

In it to win it this year.

If anyone wants to do some wagering on the side I'll throw in.

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## thoughtomator

Renewed league invites not sending - https://help.yahoo.com/kb/fantasy-fo.../SLN24347.html

if you haven't gotten a reinvite it's not Bastiat's fault

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Renewed league invites not sending - https://help.yahoo.com/kb/fantasy-fo.../SLN24347.html
> 
> if you haven't gotten a reinvite it's not Bastiat's fault


Precisely

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## Bastiat's The Law

Did everyone that posted in the thread so far get an invite?

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## Vanguard101

Is there still room?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Is there still room?


You know it!

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## Nirvikalpa

Looks good

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Is there still room?


Send me your info.

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## Bastiat's The Law

Still have some spots left boys and girls!

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## grizzums

grizzums@gmail.com

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## thoughtomator

are we trying for 20 teams again this year?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> are we trying for 20 teams again this year?


Yeah, you going to attend the draft?

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## thoughtomator

> Yeah, you going to attend the draft?


I plan to. I messed up the draft really really bad last year (not "drafted Trent Richardson with a top-10 pick" bad but still bad) but I learned a lot and am confident I can draft a lot better this year.

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## brandon

Regarding draft time I think Sunday night or a weeknight would be better. A lot of people may have other commitments on a Sunday afternoon in August.

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## juleswin

Is that (10 of 20) really the up to date number for teams? Also, I don't know if I should try and join again this time seeing how I was kicked off last year's team and you then proceeded to ignore me when I asked you why I was kicked.

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## thoughtomator

> Is that (10 of 20) really the up to date number for teams? Also, I don't know if I should try and join again this time seeing how I was kicked off last year's team and you then proceeded to ignore me when I asked you why I was kicked.


The policy was to kick owners of unmanaged teams and replace them with more active managers. Which team did you have last season and who ended up taking it over?

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## juleswin

> The policy was to kick owners of unmanaged teams and replace them with more active managers. Which team did you have last season and who ended up taking it over?


I cant remember the team I had and I have no idea who inherited it after me. It was given to me because someone else wasn't managing it so I know it happens. But I had all sorts of problems managing the team when I got it. Essentially, I couldn't make any moves, couldn't pick players off waiver etc etc and I complained about it. 

I just wish there was a way to know the people who have you on ignore, this way I can save my time and not try to interact with them

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## Bastiat's The Law

> The policy was to kick owners of unmanaged teams and replace them with more active managers. Which team did you have last season and who ended up taking it over?


Yeah, I usually give owners a week or so and if they haven't touched their team they're subject to replacement.

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## thoughtomator

Bastiat, do you have juleswin on ignore?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Bastiat, do you have juleswin on ignore?


I don't have anyone of ignore.

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## twomp

Is there still room? I'd love to join if there is. Justwinplease@yahoo.com

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## asurfaholic

Same here

Asurfaholic@gmail.com

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Is that (10 of 20) really the up to date number for teams? Also, I don't know if I should try and join again this time seeing how I was kicked off last year's team and you then proceeded to ignore me when I asked you why I was kicked.


Yeah, we currently have 10 teams in the league, so half full already.  I don't remember kicking you off last season, but if I did, I only do that if a team goes dormant for 7+ days.  My only criteria is that you make the draft and stay active throughout the season.

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## asurfaholic

Im in. This is my first time every playing fantasy anything, so i have alot to learn. Thanks for the invite

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Im in. This is my first time every playing fantasy anything, so i have alot to learn. Thanks for the invite


Welcome to the league, bro!

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## thoughtomator

If we end up not-divisible-by-4, how we going to work out the division structure?

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## Bastiat's The Law

If you want to prep for the draft I recommend this fantasy football guide.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> If we end up not-divisible-by-4, how we going to work out the division structure?


I'll get the teams.  I just wanted to maximize the participation from this forum before branching out and bringing others in.  A close-nit league where everyone can communicate on the same forum is much better, in my experience, than having a bunch of strangers thrown together.  That's my reasoning anyway.  If we get close to crunch time I'll open it up to others outside this forum.

As of right now, we only need 7 more teams.

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## Massachusetts

I'm interested, but don't want to post my email. Will send to you in PM.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> I'm interested, but don't want to post my email. Will send to you in PM.


That works.

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## Massachusetts

> That works.


Signed up.

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## Bastiat's The Law

And if anyone wonders why Freedom Fanatic is allowed in the league.

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## Bastiat's The Law

We're up to 14 teams now!

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## Massachusetts

One more?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> One more?


6 spots open.

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## DBroncs

i'm willing to sign up if there are still spots open. e-mail is dlopez70@live.com

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## thoughtomator

16 days left to the draft... just a FYI to those new to 20-team leagues: count on the draft being DEEP - deep enough that knowing who the third-string guys on teams are is actually somewhat important. If you've got the 5th overall pick, you don't see your second pick until pick #36, takes a bit to wrap your mind around it and set priorities appropriately.

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## MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2

Bump...  PM sent...

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## Bastiat's The Law

> 16 days left to the draft... just a FYI to those new to 20-team leagues: count on the draft being DEEP - deep enough that knowing who the third-string guys on teams are is actually somewhat important. If you've got the 5th overall pick, you don't see your second pick until pick #36, takes a bit to wrap your mind around it and set priorities appropriately.


Definitely keeps you on your toes and rewards football knowledge/research.

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## Bastiat's The Law

15 teams now!

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## Feeding the Abscess

Why is the draft on August 10? The first game of the season isn't until September 3.

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## brandon

Yea I say postpone the draft another two weeks and move it to a wednesday night or something.

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## Christian Liberty

> Yea I say postpone the draft another two weeks and move it to a wednesday night or something.


I understand the thought process here, but it may be tough for me depending on the exact dates since I have a college orientation coming up and I still don't know what my schedule is going to be like.  I'd rather get it done next week personally.

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## Christian Liberty

> And if anyone wonders why Freedom Fanatic is allowed in the league.


Do you have something against me?

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## thoughtomator

I support getting the draft over with earlier rather than later. The extra time gives people time to trade and/or work the FA list to be ready for week 1.

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## brandon

The problem is with how deep our league is, it's really hard to guess if your RB2 or WR3 are even going to get any playtime. Delaying the draft lets us gather more information.

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## thoughtomator

> The problem is with how deep our league is, it's really hard to guess if your RB2 or WR3 are even going to get any playtime. Delaying the draft lets us gather more information.


Unless you wait quite a while to draft those slots you should be fine, and if your draft priorities are elsewhere there is always talent to be found in free agency. At most it will impact your bench, which in this deep a league are going to be mostly replacement-level players anyway. For some guys being drafted quite early (e.g. Arian Foster, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski) it is really hard to guess whether they will get any real playtime as well due to re-injury potential.

I've been running 20-team draft sims where good talent is still there to be had in the last round, and when you throw IDP into the mix that will thin out the depletion rate if you prioritize offensive positions higher relative to other players.

The real key to the draft is just to be there for it because the computer can and will draft kicker/DEF in round 9/10 and it will also draft guys who are hurt or have inflated ADP.

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## brandon

Fwiw i was computer drafted last year and came in 2nd place.

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## thoughtomator

> Fwiw i was computer drafted last year and came in 2nd place.


I _should_ have let the computer draft for me last year - my post-draft holdings really could not have turned out worse if I did. Between the two of us we just showed that the draft isn't _that_ important, how you play it and trade and work the wire during the year have much more impact on the final outcome.

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## Bastiat's The Law

I tend to think fantasy football as a whole is a crap shoot due to the injuries which are simply a part of the sport.

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## Christian Liberty

@Bastiat- I don't know that that makes it a "crapshoot", just more like poker than chess.

In chess, the game is 100% strategy, no luck involved.  If you play better than your opponent, you win, period.

By contrast, in poker you can make good decisions and thus manipulate the odds in your favor.  Its not just luck.  But it does include luck.  Even if you make the best decisions possible and get your money in when its good, your opponent can still suck out on you.  THat's not the case in chess.  In chess when you lose you always played poorly compared to the winner.

Fantasy football... you can make good decisions to put the odds in your favor, (And obviously draft position makes a difference to, though I'm not certain what the best position is) but you can make all the best decisions and still lose as well.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> @Bastiat- I don't know that that makes it a "crapshoot", just more like poker than chess.
> 
> In chess, the game is 100% strategy, no luck involved.  If you play better than your opponent, you win, period.
> 
> By contrast, in poker you can make good decisions and thus manipulate the odds in your favor.  Its not just luck.  But it does include luck.  Even if you make the best decisions possible and get your money in when its good, your opponent can still suck out on you.  THat's not the case in chess.  In chess when you lose you always played poorly compared to the winner.
> 
> Fantasy football... you can make good decisions to put the odds in your favor, (And obviously draft position makes a difference to, though I'm not certain what the best position is) but you can make all the best decisions and still lose as well.


The unknown and unpredictable makes it more fun.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> @Bastiat- I don't know that that makes it a "crapshoot", just more like poker than chess.
> 
> In chess, the game is 100% strategy, no luck involved.  If you play better than your opponent, you win, period.
> 
> By contrast, in poker you can make good decisions and thus manipulate the odds in your favor.  Its not just luck.  But it does include luck.  Even if you make the best decisions possible and get your money in when its good, your opponent can still suck out on you.  THat's not the case in chess.  In chess when you lose you always played poorly compared to the winner.
> 
> Fantasy football... you can make good decisions to put the odds in your favor, (And obviously draft position makes a difference to, though I'm not certain what the best position is) but you can make all the best decisions and still lose as well.


The unknown and unpredictable makes it more fun.

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## Christian Liberty

> The unknown and unpredictable makes it more fun.


Agreed.

So, are we still on August 10?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Agreed.
> 
> So, are we still on August 10?


We're still 3 teams short, so we might have to bump it back.

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## dannno

> I tend to think fantasy football as a whole is a crap shoot due to the injuries which are simply a part of the sport.


I just went from 1st to 8th in baseball from having a couple of my top pitchers getting injured.

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## Christian Liberty

> We're still 3 teams short, so we might have to bump it back.


Depending on when exactly it is, I may have to drop out or let the computer draft for me (I can live with the latter if that is allowed).  The thing is, I'm going away to college and I'm moving on the 18th.  And obviously that means I'm going to be busy on the dates that are around the 18th.  I'll have some time at some point to set my rosters each week, but I'm not sure WHEN I'll have time and I won't know that until I'm there.  So, the delay might be an issue for me.  I'm not totally sure yet.  Keep me posted on when it is.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> I just went from 1st to 8th in baseball from having a couple of my top pitchers getting injured.


Yeah, baseball might be even be more unforgiving.

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## dannno

> Depending on when exactly it is, I may have to drop out or let the computer draft for me (I can live with the latter if that is allowed).  The thing is, I'm going away to college and I'm moving on the 18th.  And obviously that means I'm going to be busy on the dates that are around the 18th.  I'll have some time at some point to set my rosters each week, but I'm not sure WHEN I'll have time and I won't know that until I'm there.  So, the delay might be an issue for me.  I'm not totally sure yet.  Keep me posted on when it is.


Hmm ya my first week or so of college was a lot of partying and drinking fairly heavily. In fact, I think I pretty much just kept partying and drinking until I graduated 

You should have plenty of time for the draft while everybody else is out partying and drinking

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## EBounding

Can I join?  Fantasy Football is the only reason I bother to watch football.

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## dannno

Fantasy Teams: 3

Fantasy Drafts: .2 (said 0 before, remembered I gotta couple picks for the baseball team in)

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## thoughtomator

Draft went well... for future FF play let me recommend doing a mock draft so you can get your bearings before the real thing.

Self draft recap:

The strategy that I wanted to play going into the draft was draft receivers (4WR/1TE) in the first 4-5 rounds, pick up acceptable stopgaps at other positions, then get some IDP studs, fill the bench with prospects, then finally fill any remaining empty slots.

I used the Yahoo custom ranker to sort the first 160 or so players (8 rounds' worth: 8 offensive skill positions for 20 teams) based on how valuable I thought they were, strongly de-emphasizing any player with high injury risk (e.g. Foster, Gronkowski, Maclin). I made a strategic decision not to include kickers or D/ST, knowing the best ones would be picked off before I would take them. So I came into the draft knowing which were my top 160 players overall and which ones I would personally take, in which order, preparing to make small adjustments to priority during the draft as necessary.

Some of that plan worked, some of it didn't. I didn't end up grabbing even a single WR until round 4 due to the opportunities available when pick time came around.

Pick 1 (6th overall) - Jimmy Graham. There were four players I ranked higher and at the 6th overall pick he was the best on my list. Not at all the way I wanted to start but the math of our scoring system makes him the single most significant player in the game.

Pick 2 (35th) - Julius Thomas. By the time the picks got back to me, all the solid WR1s had been stripped dry. This is where my initial strategy blew all to hell, but I couldn't ignore the value of Thomas relative to what was left on the board. Thomas and Graham both represent high-probability WR1 numbers from the TE position, meaning I could play both at once (one in the flex) and they could sub for each other on bye weeks, making it so I didn't need to draft a backup prospect. Thomas was both the best player on the board and the most efficient pick I had.

Pick 3 (46th) - Matt Stafford. Four quarterbacks were already off the board and I knew that Stafford would not be available if I did not pull the trigger on him. This came at the painful sacrifice of having a respectable-though-not-elite WR1, but with another 30 picks in front of me and the potential for a hard QB run depleting all my alternate options, and being unsatisfied at QB all of last year, I bit the bullet.

Pick 4 (75th) - Marques Colston. WR options were depleting fast, WR is king in this league, and I had no one. Pulled him earlier than I would have liked but he was reasonably safe as the lead WR in NO's 5k/year offense.

Pick 5 (86th) - Brandin Cooks. Probably a reach, but I really like the upside and down at pick 86 there aren't many sure-things left. Left me with 2 Saints WRs, but I feel comfortable playing both at once.

Pick 6 (115th) - Bernard Pierce. Proven RB talent and high-upside spec plays were already mostly plundered by this time, but Pierce can serve as a stopgap RB1 for a couple of games at least (giving me time to act), with a chance to keep the job. This pick was to have someone in the RB slot who wouldn't outright lose games for me.

Pick 7 (126th) - Devonta Freeman. All solid vets now long gone, my only hope of filling my RB2 and WR3 slots was to start collecting a gaggle of prospects. At this point I made a distinction between who I wanted more than a stud IDP player and who I didn't.

Pick 8 (155th) - Lavonte David. Another 30 picks later there was no one left on the list. From here the idea was to pick up a bunch of dominating linebackers while others were filling bench slots with wire-replaceable talent. If you look at the quality of the offensive players going in round 8, IDP studs look like a better investment.

Picks 9-13: Paul Posluszny, Chandler Jones, Patrick Willis, Chad Greenway, DeMarcus Ware. This deep into the draft, the number of the pick isn't worth tracking anymore. Here is an embarassment of IDP riches that I cashed in on while others were picking kickers and team defenses and longshot bench players.

Picks 14-18: Cody Latimer, Ronnie Hillman, Lance Dunbar, Cole Beasley, Kenbrell Thompkins, Andre Holmes. Finally I fill my own bench with what was left over from others' pickings, as everyone else fills in their IDP slots from what I left over. This is a decent bench haul, exclusively focused on the positions where I'm weak (RB/WR) with a lot of upside potential to become every-week starters. If one of these guys becomes a WR2 or RB2 (comparable to guys being picked in rounds 3-5) it's a great return on my investment. And those that don't work out, well... I need a free bench slot for transactions, anyway.

Rest of picks - just filling in the rest. Not sure how Houston D/ST fell to me but I understand it is well-regarded. Kicker pick was a mistake, should have waited until last round. Didn't end up mattering because I got the 2 DB and 1 LB I needed to finish my roster in the last three rounds.




Looking at the _other_ teams... seeing a very competitive field. Last year there were 3-4 teams that were just really really bad, and even the weakest teams by my analysis have enough to work with to be competive. A couple of the teams that DID start the way I wanted to (pull 3 or more top WRs to start the draft) look like the scariest opponents out there right now. Also interestingly, we have a Week 1 matchup that is a reprise of last year's championship!

Don't mind Yahoo's draft analysis - they panned several in-hindsight-very-strong drafts last year. I think they are working on ADP numbers for non-PPR when doing those analyses. With PPR the balance shifts a lot to receivers.

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## muzzled dogg

check out your team's draft recap. apparently i had the best draft

edit: also check the power rankings to see where you rank

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## Christian Liberty

I got a C.  I do wonder if the program understands the concept of "20 teams."  For instance, it said Cam Newton in Round 3 was the "least valuable pick" and that Reggie Wayne was a bad starting WR.  I could see that being true with less players in the league but with 20 were those really bad picks?

Also, how bad is my WR core?  Yahoo says its the worst in the league.  How bad do you guys think it is?

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## brandon

I'm not overly enthused with my draft.  On the plus side I have two top 10 RBs and am stacked pretty deep at WR with guys that at least get game time.

My QB choice is really going to hurt me I think. I took Colin Kaepernick at 96 because he was the best on the board going by Yahoo's rankings. Looking at him more closely, he's only projected to score like 20 points per game.

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## muzzled dogg

trade time!

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## James Madison

If Josh Gordon gets his suspension reduced, I'll have a WR corp of Gordon, Megatron, Garcon, and Andre Johnson with Da'Rick Rodgers (high upside) as my WR5.

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## thoughtomator

> If Josh Gordon gets his suspension reduced, I'll have a WR corp of Gordon, Megatron, Garcon, and Andre Johnson with Da'Rick Rodgers (high upside) as my WR5.


I noticed that and it scares the piss out of me... I was ready to pull Gordon myself

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## Christian Liberty

Cam is only supposed to get 22 against a weak Bucs defense, maybe I did pick him too early...  I wanted Sanford but lost him at the last minute

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## thoughtomator

For all who are looking at the sad state of the TE slot in their rosters.... Julius Thomas is for trade, I'm looking for two RB2 or WR2 candidates in exchange, or one elite WR/RB. If you want Graham instead, I'll trade him as well at a slightly higher price.

I've also got a nice stable of elite linebackers who are on the table as sweeteners or stand-alone trade targets.

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## brandon

I'd trade an elite RB or WR for an elite top 5 QB. Any takers?

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## loveshiscountry

> Cam is only supposed to get 22 against a weak Bucs defense, maybe I did pick him too early...  I wanted Sanford but lost him at the last minute


I'll trade you Big Ben for Cam

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## CPUd

This is so bad, and I still watched the whole thing:

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## thoughtomator

Is anyone else having a problem with Yahoo? A number of subdomains, including fantasysports.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, and their mail service (among others) seem to be suffering an internal DNS problem. I think someone offered me a trade but I can't even open the mail to see it

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## thoughtomator

Josh Gordon suspended for a full year, Twitter responds by trending Ray Rice.

Some amusing stuff:




> If Ray Rice had an unconscious wife in one hand and a joint in the other, he'd ditch the joint to avoid serious punishment. What a world.





> I guess it's exactly 8 times worse to smoke weed than beat a woman.





> Josh Gordon plays at a high level that the NFL won't understand

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## Feeding the Abscess

I don't mind my team so much, now that I rebuilt my defense from its horrible auto-draft.

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## Christian Liberty

> I'll trade you Big Ben for Cam


I'll pass.

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## Bastiat's The Law

I think my draft went reasonably well.

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## thoughtomator

> I think my draft went reasonably well.


Certainly like your QB/WR stack, and your IDP ain't bad at all. That bench is dubious though, I doubt any one of those players will be playable for you during the season. Looks like a playoff-caliber team overall.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Certainly like your QB/WR stack, and your IDP ain't bad at all. That bench is dubious though, I doubt any one of those players will be playable for you during the season. Looks like a playoff-caliber team overall.


Thanks mate.  I like who your scrapped your draft strategy almost instantly lol.

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## thoughtomator

> Thanks mate.  I like who your scrapped your draft strategy almost instantly lol.


I didn't quite scrap it - four of my first five picks were receivers, falling into WR/TE/Flex spots, which is very close to what I originally planned. I hadn't dreamed that Julius Thomas would fall as far as he did, and he fits in the flex just as well as a WR would have. So it was really just the round 3 pick of Stafford that was off-plan. Picks 6 and 7 were RBs, which was the plan, and picking IDP starting in round 8 followed by bench slots then D/ST and kicker was also in the plan. In hindsight I am more satisfied with my 1st pick of Graham than I was on draft day, that was definitely the right choice. In this scoring system there's a good argument that Graham is worthy of the #1 overall draft slot; there's no position in the league with such a massive drop off from the #1 player to the #2.

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## thoughtomator

Unsolicited advice for teams I don't play this year:

Liberty Rising:
- QB/3WR you got are what is going to carry you this season. Have a plan for if one gets injured, particularly DeSean Jackson.
- RB situation is not ideal but you can probably do well using two of three in the right matchup situations.
- TE spot is a gaping hole. I'd seriously consider running with Fauria over Chandler, at least until the inevitable switch to Kyle Orton in Buffalo.
- Flex spot, you're probably better off running a WR in that slot because our scoring system LOVES receivers (full PPR). Kearse should do fine there.
- IDP situation looks solid up to those last two linebackers (Anderson/Burnett), who have both been released and are guaranteed to score you zero points. Dump those two for the best LBs you can find on the wire, or you'll be sitting in a 10-20 point hole every week out of the gate against teams with their IDP in order.
- Once you're done using Flacco to sub in for Brees' bye, use him as trade bait. Alternatively, trade him now for a WR prospect - or two if you can get 'em.
- Mendenhall and Thomas also need to go. Both are no longer in the league and waste your spots.

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## thoughtomator

Taxachusetts
- I hate your QB but you know that. Won't harp on it.
- You have really nice WRs and RBs overall, nicely done.
- IDP situation a mess. 2 bench slots for IDP too much, especially when both should be dropped because they won't play. Also you have a DB who won't play, either. There are only four of the 11 IDP players on your roster I'd keep (Allen, Moore, Suh, Goldson), and I'd go to the wire or trade for the rest (you certainly have some nice bait to offer on the offensive side of the ball).
- Brandon Bolden may not make the team. "Barely rosterable" comes to mind. If you drop him, he's unlikely to be picked up by anyone else; an RB who can serve as an adequate bye-week fill-in is what I'd look for there.
- Jermichael Finley is not in the NFL at this time, and after his neck injury shouldn't be. Drop him and find some TE lottery ticket in his stead.
- I'd seriously consider playing Santonio Holmes over Tavon Austin.

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## thoughtomator

No Money Big Mouths

I might regret giving advice here because you have a highly competitive team already, but so not to leave you out, I don't think Jeff Tarpinian is going to play much. Other than the hole at TE, you have very good balance and backups on offense, defense, and the bench. It would take some bad injury luck to take you out of the playoff race.

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## thoughtomator

Longbomb's Team

Another very strong team that doesn't need my advice, but I'll give a few cents anyway: Trading away one of those safeties and putting a wire-quality LB in the generic-D spot instead is a net point boost for you. You can probably trade Jarius Byrd for a WR3 better than your current flex and WR3 to open that spot, gaining extra points from a better receiver.

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## thoughtomator

NH Free Staters

When I looked over this team, the thought that came across my mind was "lottery tickets". There is a ton of risk in the roster, as well as a ton of upside. This team could either boom or bust and neither outcome would surprise me. This team will probably not be merely competitive - either these gambles will generally pay off, and the team could run away with the league; or they won't, and the term "dumpster fire" will be used to describe it. It's the total opposite of my highly conservative approach, but I can still see how this could be a steamroller of a team. Tons of value there, PPR sensible in the RB department, strong on IDP, and a deep, worthwhile bench.

Only thing of note is that Aldon Smith is suspended 9 games. Stash or dump.

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## thoughtomator

Season starts tomorrow... for anyone confused about our scoring system, you may want to refer to my end-of-season wrapup from last year: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...=1#post5357054

Some general tips for the rest of the teams, especially those with low (<150) projected point totals:

- Don't leave empty spots in your roster! This effectively gives your opponent extra players relative to your own team.
- If a player is projected to score zero points in a game, they will not be playing in the game. This is the functional equivalent of playing with an empty roster slot.
- If their projection is zero points over the whole season, chances are they are no longer on an NFL roster, or are injured and out for the whole season. Drop these players.
- Don't worry about bye weeks. If you have to suck up one bad week in order to get the best overall season roster, do it.
- FLEX spots should have a WR in there, unless your 3rd RB or 2nd TE is significantly better than your 4th WR, which won't be the case for most teams.
- Projected point totals when not zero are a rough guide. Actual results do vary quite a bit, which makes steady, reliable players a bit more valuable than one which will score the same overall point total but in spikes.
- DO NOT ignore IDP slots. Having your IDP in order against opponents who don't gives you a massive advantage. If you don't understand IDP, read up on it. At the very least check projected stats.
- Understand waivers vs. free agency: When you make a waiver claim, you go to the bottom of the waiver order. Waiver claims are prioritized by the waiver order. Several teams may claim the same player via waivers and if that happens then the one with the lowest waiver order number is the one who is processed first. Consider whether a player you want might be gotten as a free agent instead (when the waiver period ends for the week), which doesn't upset your current waiver priority. Priority starts out in reverse order of the draft (last pick in draft gets #1 waiver spot to start the season). If you are near the top of the waiver priority, don't give that up for a player you aren't that keen on.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

^^
Some great advice given out above my comment.  I think you give better team analysis than Yahoo does with their draft grades.

----------


## muzzled dogg

Thanks for the run down of my team.  I agree with pretty much everything you said

----------


## thoughtomator

Glad you all liked my reviews. Yeah Yahoo draft analysis sucks, which I learned to my chagrin last year, getting an A+ draft rating and starting out 0-4. I don't think Yahoo takes either the depth of the league nor the specifics of the scoring system into account, and both are unusual in this case. Probably works well for 10-12 team standard leagues, but not ours.

I'm going to give a few more reviews for teams that I do play this year but are on the bottom of the power-rankings pile. This entails some risk that I will help them beat my own team, but I'd like this to be a competitive, involved season from all 20 teams this year and the bottom-rankers are the most likely to drop out, so this is a preventative measure.

Government Funded
- Wes Welker is out until Week 6 due to suspension, which is probably for the best given his latest concussion. I'd swap Andrew Hawkins into the starting spot, he looks to have a bright future.
- Arian Foster's health situation scares the heck out of me, but if he avoids another injury it could be a gamble that pays off. Morris and Miller are nice quality 2nd and 3rd backs. I personally think Morris will outperform expectations this year by quite a bit and add some pass-catching which he wasn't known for before.
- IDP situation is a disaster, which is probably the #1 reason this team has the bottom power ranking. Only one worth keeping is Mingo - flush the rest and get the best-projected players you can for the other slots. If you don't address this you are going to lose every game by 50 points or more to better-IDP teams. It's just way too much of a point loss to have that many starting players who won't score points for you.
- Bench is pretty good, though EJ Manuel will have no value this year. Dump him, grab a higher-upside prospect. Even Kyle Orton (Manuel's backup and probable midseason replacement) has higher upside. I wouldn't normally hold Fasano on a roster, but as a handcuff to Kelce he makes sense for your team.

DJ's Dandy Team
- Pick a new team name, that name come off as very, um... non-football.
- Offensive lineup is surprisingly good for a team ranked so low. Nothing needs to change there.
- You can probably dump Cumberland off the bench, there's no need to have two TEs sitting on the bench unless both are high-upside prospects. Fleener is higher-upside than Cumberland by a good margin.
- Another IDP trainwreck here. Most players on that roster won't play. Only one I would even consider holding onto is Terrence Newman. As with the others, when you lose game after game this season, your IDP situation will be directly (and in this case, probably exclusively) to blame for it. Fix that and you have a highly competitive team instead of a bottom-ranker.

Stark Direwolves
- Start Bryant at kicker, Prater won't play until Week 6 IIRC.
- Christine Michael is out for week 1 at least, and Chris Ivory is a better RB play even if he weren't.
- WR situation is scary good, especially if Patterson meets his upside expectations.
- More IDP badness. Keep Daryl Smith and Patrick Peterson and flush the rest for the best free agents on the wire. Again this is the only thing between being on the bottom and being highly competitive.


For those paying attention, a pattern is definitely emerging that would-be good teams are crippling themselves through bad IDP setups. These are 9 of 19 starting players on your team, they will probably score a third or more of your overall points, you simply cannot be competitive unless you have a bare minimum best-of-wire quality setup in those spots.

One more piece of IDP advice: if you have more than 2 defensive backs or 2 defensive linemen in your lineup, you're doing it wrong. A wire-quality linebacker is better than any 3rd DB or DL candidate you can get, they simply score many more points as a function of the LB position. It's similar to how the #20 QB will score more overall points than the #3 or 4 RB.

----------


## dannno

> DJ's Dandy Team
> - Pick a new team name, that name come off as very, um... non-football.


So you don't think Michael Sam has any upside?

----------


## thoughtomator

> So you don't think Michael Sam has any upside?


Nope. Too small for DE, too slow for OLB. If he plays, he won't do anything of note besides sell jerseys to left-wingers.

You may want to swap those players you just traded for into your lineup before games start.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

I'm thinking about posting your Unsolicited Advice on the league page for everyone.

----------


## brandon

Where's my advice?

----------


## thoughtomator

> Where's my advice?


Since I play you this week, I advise swapping in Cooper, Cotchery, and Robinson for Brown, Maclin and Lynch!

----------


## thoughtomator

And since the games haven't started yet let me put up my predictions for playoff teams this year, by seed:

1) Austrian Argonauts - strongest overall starters in the league. Will take major injury to knock this team out of the playoffs
2) One Percenters - having learned my lessons from last season's experience, I'm betting my seeding will improve a couple of spots
3) NH Free Staters - presuming those gambles generally pay off, they'll come in high in the playoff seeding.
4) Philadelphia Martyrs - another team whose draft results shows lessons learned from last season. 
5) Yvonne's Dolphins - solid group with low injury risk gives this team a high floor
6) No Money Big Mouths - this team is broad and deep
7) Johnson & Johnson - Receiver heaven will keep this team in the race
8) Voluntaryist Victory - well balanced team which will overcome a bad RB situation to edge out the next best for the last playoff spot.

----------


## Christian Liberty

What about me?

----------


## thoughtomator

> What about me?


My prediction for you is that injuries will kill your team this year - I count four key guys who are major injury risks. Also you've got a bad LB in one of your D slots and your IDP in general is about 20% below what I would consider adequate. LB/DL dual qualification is great if the player usually plays LB, not valuable if he usually plays DL. Jamaal Charles going down to injury early in the season is the best chance I see for your team this year. But hey, you never know. I did a near-total turnover of my team after Week 4 last year, and good wire and trading outcomes can salvage your season. If you make the playoffs you're going to have to work hard for it - don't waste that waiver position on a scrub. Ted Ginn Jr. is not worth the bench slot, I see no fewer than 25 current free agents I'd rather have on my bench.

----------


## brandon

Lynch needs 11 more yards to blow away his projection. I'm feeling good!

----------


## brandon

Thoughtomator, what did  you do to add ~9 more points to your projection today? Pick up a new player, or just yahoo changing their opinion?

----------


## thoughtomator

> Thoughtomator, what did  you do to add ~9 more points to your projection today? Pick up a new player, or just yahoo changing their opinion?


That was Yahoo adjusting their projecting for Cody Latimer

getting flashbacks to last season where there were a number of games in which the top 2 scorers for the week played each other so the #2 scorer lost his game

----------


## brandon

Nice run by Wilson, setting up Lynch for the easy TD.   After these messages...

----------


## thoughtomator

Just my luck. I see you're getting your revenge for last year's championship game. We're not done here yet though!

----------


## brandon

Lynch still needs 4 more yards for the 5pt bonus.  Anyway,  gonna set us up to be about even on projections going into Sunday.

----------


## thoughtomator

I have a feeling we'll both be biting nails on this matchup all weekend long.

----------


## brandon

Gonna be a close one for sure. Still holdin out for Lynch to get the case TD tonight.

----------


## thoughtomator

On the bright side for me, having an opponent's stud RB ripping off a 30 point game doesn't put me in that deep a hole. Still, this couldn't have started much better for you.

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> And since the games haven't started yet let me put up my predictions for playoff teams this year, by seed:
> 
> 1) Austrian Argonauts - strongest overall starters in the league. Will take major injury to knock this team out of the playoffs
> 2) One Percenters - having learned my lessons from last season's experience, I'm betting my seeding will improve a couple of spots
> 3) NH Free Staters - presuming those gambles generally pay off, they'll come in high in the playoff seeding.
> 4) Philadelphia Martyrs - another team whose draft results shows lessons learned from last season. 
> 5) Yvonne's Dolphins - solid group with low injury risk gives this team a high floor
> 6) No Money Big Mouths - this team is broad and deep
> 7) Johnson & Johnson - Receiver heaven will keep this team in the race
> 8) Voluntaryist Victory - well balanced team which will overcome a bad RB situation to edge out the next best for the last playoff spot.


Looks like Johnson & Johnson might have Josh Gordon now, as well. That WR corps would be killer for a 10 team league, let alone our 20 team setup.

----------


## thoughtomator

I don't blame him for picking Gordon back up, I was considering it as well - but it's still a longshot at this point. The NFL has been completely merciless with him and I don't see the sea change in mentality required to reverse it.

----------


## thoughtomator

Morning football news makes me feel better about the toughest choice I had in the draft - Eddie Lacy vs. Jimmy Graham in round 1. I had been thinking that I might regret passing up Lacy, but he's already suffered a concussion and may be out for game 2.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Morning football news makes me feel better about the toughest choice I had in the draft - Eddie Lacy vs. Jimmy Graham in round 1. I had been thinking that I might regret passing up Lacy, but he's already suffered a concussion and may be out for game 2.


Kind of a ballsy move that looks like it's going to work towards your favor now.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Hey thoughtomator,

What do you think of my buddy's team he just drafted.  It's another league I'm running, same exact settings as ours.

----------


## thoughtomator

I'd take a close look at Hill vs. Cassel at QB. Cassel might not be the better option. NYG looking like a raging dumpster fire this year - I think it will be bad enough to break the taboo of asking whether Eli Manning has what it takes to be a winning NFL QB anymore.

He needs to trade off RBs for a better quality TE and, if possible, QB. Even some WR to replace Cooper and another to fit in the flex, is trading up there points wise.

Starting Buffalo DEF this week is not recommended.

On IDP, four DBs is very bad. Drop two worst and replace with LBs. Argument for LB in D slot is even stronger than that for WR in flex spot - carrying DBs in those spots will lose an average of 4-6 points a week over baseline LBs.

----------


## TaftFan

I'll take a team if there is a spot.

taftfan@gmail.com

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I'll take a team if there is a spot.
> 
> taftfan@gmail.com


Sent you an invite.  Be sure to change the team name.

----------


## TaftFan

> Sent you an invite.  Be sure to change the team name.


Thanks.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I'd take a close look at Hill vs. Cassel at QB. Cassel might not be the better option. NYG looking like a raging dumpster fire this year - I think it will be bad enough to break the taboo of asking whether Eli Manning has what it takes to be a winning NFL QB anymore.
> 
> He needs to trade off RBs for a better quality TE and, if possible, QB. Even some WR to replace Cooper and another to fit in the flex, is trading up there points wise.
> 
> Starting Buffalo DEF this week is not recommended.
> 
> On IDP, four DBs is very bad. Drop two worst and replace with LBs. Argument for LB in D slot is even stronger than that for WR in flex spot - carrying DBs in those spots will lose an average of 4-6 points a week over baseline LBs.


Thanks for the overview.  I come to the same conclusion about Cassel.  I was texting him to take Derek Carr in the late rounds just in case Cassel doesn't pan out, which he won't, but he never got the message. 

It's like my buddy totally punted on defensive players, which isn't advised, but if you do that as a strategy shouldn't you end up with some better starters on offense?  His team is weak across the board.  Mind bottling.

----------


## thoughtomator

Well, ultimately we'll have to play the games to see who really has the strongest teams - injuries can wreck a team fast, as you learned when Rodgers went down last year - this is why I went super-safe at the top of the draft in terms of injury risk.

My ideal setup on offense under these conditions has stud QB/TE, because those positions are the rarest to get an up-and-coming stud emerge during the season. It's possible if you're lucky to pull stud RBs and WRs from the wire - guys like Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, and Keenan Allen served well off the wire last year, and this year there will undoubtedly be others. So if I can get one really good RB and WR to start the season, I've got another RB slot, 2 WR slots, and a flex to take upside gambles with, on emerging players during the season. You can do similar things in IDP. The more of those gamble slots you make, the more risk you take, but you give yourself opportunities to be the one whose guy emerges as a star.

In a draft as deep as ours you basically have six decent picks on the offensive side of the ball. Next year I will seriously consider drafting IDP a round earlier than I did this year, which was still early, because after round six the offensive players don't really have much better odds to shine than any other longshot gamble you'll take down in round 14 (where I took on Cody Latimer this year). You notice that even though I drafted my bench essentially after all other players had their shot at it - have been the first to IDP goodies instead - I still ended up chock-full of good upside there, as good as the people who drafted offensive bench positions starting in round 9.

Things like "Wes Welker getting injured" are not all that hard to guess at. There are Welkers all over the league just waiting to go down and give the chance to the next guy. Latimer was the next guy, in the case of Welker, and has the bonus of being scary talented and a physical clone of the departed top-10 WR Eric Decker. There are also players who are starting but aren't very good, and the next guy in those cases also has a shot to shine.

I have three more of those 'next guys' on my bench and a ton more on my watch list, waiting for that to happen. When Steven Jackson injures his hamstring again nobody will be surprised but I'll have an instant RB2 in Freeman to shore up my weak RB side, which was intentionally de-prioritized in the draft just for that reason. Likewise, DeMarco Murray getting hurt would surprise no one, and his replacement Dunbar has RB1 upside. Hillman as well I'm holding onto because Montee Ball has something yet to prove, both on the field and regarding his recent surgery. Bortles falls into the last category of waiting for a poor starter to fail his way out of the lineup. The only guy I'm holding on the bench for his own potential in his current situation is the 3rd WR from Arizona John Brown.

It's really quite easy to pull studs off the wire pre-emptively by asking questions like "which top point-scorers are most likely to get hurt? who's the next guy when they do?" This doesn't seem to work at all with tight ends, and less so with QB than most, but for most other positions it can be quite worthwhile. Look at Knile Davis as the ultimate example of what a backup given his shot to shine in a prime fantasy situation might do.

----------


## thoughtomator

also LOL at my week's Yahoo score estimate going up another point and change before anybody plays

I do believe this one is Cooks' numbers going up as a result of Kenny Stills being out. Probably Marques Colston is also seeing a bump, too, but I traded him to Danno.

----------


## brandon

Wes Welker isn't even out due to injury, or at least primary. It's a 4 game suspension for PEDs. I'm in another league that drafted on Tuesday and I picked him up in a late round as a steal... he's gonna be back game 6 lighting it up.

I think it's possible to mitigate injury risk to a large degree. I don't try to avoid injury prone players necessarily, but I do try to hold on to suitable backups if any key player falls. It seems that in this league, simply having a starter is almost as good as having an elite starter. Always insure your elite players with their backups, when possible. Last season I held on to Jammal Charles backup all season and he was scoring a steady 2 or 3 points per game, until charles was out - and that game he brought in like 25 points for me. There's plenty of guys on waivers or FA that are projected to score a measily 1 or 2 points a game, until their starter falls and all of a sudden then are projected in the low teens.

----------


## thoughtomator

Want to bet that Welker will be injured again with another concussion within four games of getting back on the field?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Most of my team hasn't played yet today.  Not sure if they're cans or jems.

----------


## thoughtomator

Some absolutely incredible scoring going on in my game vs. brandon - things keep going the way they are, the loser of our game will have beaten the #3 scorer in the league by 25-30 points.

----------


## Christian Liberty

Cam Newton didn't freaking play

----------


## thoughtomator

> Cam Newton didn't freaking play


they were red-flag telegraphing that one... check in an hour before the games start and you'll avoid getting caught by surprise - what was I saying about Newton's injury risk

----------


## thoughtomator

Julius Thomas is currently at a 96 TD season pace... would you believe I failed to get takers in 3 trade offers put out for this guy, putting him on the block, shouting it from the rooftops...!

----------


## Christian Liberty

> they were red-flag telegraphing that one... check in an hour before the games start and you'll avoid getting caught by surprise - what was I saying about Newton's injury risk


I knew the injury risk but I can't really check an hour before games start.  I'm usually in church at that time

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I knew the injury risk but I can't really check an hour before games start.  I'm usually in church at that time


Better pray for your team while you're there

----------


## asurfaholic

I thought I had a lock on my first game drew Brees had a pretty great game but got half the points Matt Ryan did.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Better pray for your team while you're there


If I hadn't been there and had been switching Derek Anderson in instead, I might have won

At this point I'm kind of hoping you beat me by more than 24, if you do win.  It would crush me to have lost because I didn't switch Anderson in....

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> Julius Thomas is currently at a 96 TD season pace... would you believe I failed to get takers in 3 trade offers put out for this guy, putting him on the block, shouting it from the rooftops...!


*48

----------


## thoughtomator

Definitely some surprises this week... top things that caught my notice this morning were how Nirva's team blew away their projections to steal a longshot win, and two highly-rated teams who turned in some decidedly average performances.

The top-2-scorers-playing-each-other thing is definitely happening, so my game vs. brandon is going to come down to the performance of Stafford and company. Longbombs looks to be coming in 3rd overall this week, with a big gap between his expected score (222ish) and the next best expected score (196ish).

----------


## thoughtomator

> *48


I wrote that at halftime

----------


## brandon

Was a lot of fun yesterday watching our game and the projections bounce back and forth. I had a lot of guys on offense put in big performances, but a lot of my defenders came up way short. I guess I could still win if my defense turns in a shutout tonight and Stafford chokes, but it's going to be tough.

----------


## thoughtomator

I don't see any problem with your defense nor its performance this week. I'd be perfectly happy with the defensive results you've gotten so far - presuming the last LB doesn't drop a zero on you, you've got 60+ points of IDP which is a #2 output in this league.

Only thing that went wrong for you this week is the matchup - you'd be a clear favorite against any other opponent. And without the bizarre outcome of 31 points for Houston defense, this would still be neck-and-neck. As it is, you're still not out of it yet. If we assume that you end up losing this game, I'd still have to regard your team as the #1 challenger for the title at this time.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Harrison Smith is a beast.

----------


## muzzled dogg

Live by the pats die by the pats

Managed to survive this week despite their L

----------


## thoughtomator

Matchup review heading into Monday night games

*Decided Matches*
NH Free Staters over Danno Team Americuh: Taking 7 zeroes out of 19 players crushes Danno's chances in Week 1. Fix the IDP, Danno!
Voluntaryist Victory over Dallas Wackobirds: Balanced scoring gives VV a solid win this week as only Steve Smith and Cameron Wake post superior scores for the Wackobirds.
Stark Direwolves over Liberty Rising: Underdog survives brutal IDP outing thanks to multiple impressive outings on the offensive side of the ball, including Matt Ryan's record performance.
Johnson & Johnson over SolarPoweredPassers: J&J becomes the only team in all of Fantasy Football to ride Allen Hurns' breakout day to a win.
BrianEllisTrustFund over Taxachusetts: BETF puts forth a solid outing buttressed by nice performances in several areas, while nobody on the Taxers' side shines through this week.
Longbombs over Yvonne's Dolphins: Fine performances at QB, TE, K, and DEF lift the Longbombs to what will likely be the 3rd best score of the week.

*Still Undecided Going Into Monday Night*
Austrian Argonauts vs. Freedom Fanatics: AA is saved by FF's lack of QB scoring this week... or are they? 7-1 odds of pulling out the victory still for AA despite a performance well below projections.
One Percenters vs. Philadelphia Martyrs: Week's (likely) top two scorers end up head-to-head in a game with multiple star performances on both teams. OP heads into the night with a 30-point projection gap, giving about a 4-1 chance of victory with five players across the two teams yet to go.
Jesse Benton's Corpse vs. Alex Jones Forever: Two of the week's lowest scorers and worst IDP disaster zones head into Monday night with JBC having a little better than a 3-1 chance to pull out the victory.

*Nail Biter of the Week*
ISIS vs. No Money Big Mouths: Projected as an easy win for NMBM, this game has turned into anything but, and only a few points separate the projected outcomes at this point. If Carson Palmer can post 26 points or better, ISIS will have stolen this game in a massive upset.

----------


## thoughtomator

Stafford and Calvin Johnson are quickly justifying their draft picks - 10 minutes in, 20 and 25 points respectively so far. If this keeps going this way then I have a chance to break last year's single-game record of 284 points (by No Money Big Mouths week 2, 2013 season).

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Austrian Argonauts vs. Freedom Fanatics: AA is saved by FF's lack of QB scoring this week... or are they? 7-1 odds of pulling out the victory still for AA despite a performance well below projections.


Yeah, I'm really bad about that.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

My team DEF gave be a big goose egg.  They were supposed to be one of the top team D's too.

----------


## thoughtomator

> My team DEF gave be a big goose egg.  They were supposed to be one of the top team D's too.


defenses and kickers are completely unpredictable, is why every fantasy pro says draft them in the last two rounds

look at the top scoring defenses this week and how many are unowned! None were considered to be above the bottom 12 when we drafted.

In other news, I'm ready to declare my game won. Stafford is 9 yards from giving the 300-yard bonus, and I also have the team's kicker, so if he fails to throw for a TD on any given drive, the kicker gets points instead. NYG offense is so horrible that DET is starting with great field position over and over and over. (as I was typing this message, Eli tossed another INT deep in his own territory, leaving yet another short field)

240 points on the board so far, still have the rest of this game plus a WR2 left to score more - while the matchup outcome is no longer in doubt, that all-time high score is within my reach - current projection is 270 points, but a good game by Floyd can get the other 15 I'm looking for.

----------


## thoughtomator

LOL Stafford rushing TD he's pouring it on... what a great draft pick he was early 3rd round!

----------


## thoughtomator

256.90 points and a quality WR yet to play - at some point this season I'm going to bust through 300 points, I can feel it!

----------


## thoughtomator

Uh oh.... Argonauts pull TWO goose eggs out of the DET-NYG game; odds of winning drop to 2-1 going into the late game. 14.46 combined points are needed from Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates to pull it out...

----------


## thoughtomator

Odds of victory for Jesse Benton's Corpse have also dropped to 3:2, leaving three matches to be decided in this final, upcoming SD-ARI game. Luck to all...

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Uh oh.... Argonauts pull TWO goose eggs out of the DET-NYG game; odds of winning drop to 2-1 going into the late game. 14.46 combined points are needed from Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates to pull it out...


I'm so annoyed that I wouldn't even have to be worrying right now had I freaking started Anderson.

----------


## thoughtomator

Halftime arrives in 45 minutes - very fast half - with lousy fantasy scoring for almost everyone involved. QBs combine for 9/19, 150 yds, 0 TD 0 INT in the half

----------


## thoughtomator

scratch that, was just a quarter

with another catch by Michael Floyd my projection has gone up to 283 points...

----------


## thoughtomator

And the final results... Argonauts back into the win, Alex Jones Forever flops in its bit to unseat Jessie Benton's Corpse, but ISIS pulls off a stunner against the heavily favored No Money Big Mouths. Grats to all winners this week.

Week 1 Recap

*200+ point scores*
279.00 One Percenters
235.45 Philadelphia Martyrs
214.75 Johnson & Johnson
213.10 Longbombs

The significance of 200+ point scores is that if you break that mark, you are highly likely to win your game. Last season, the highest losing score was 218 points - every team who scored more than that won their game that week. Unfortunately for the Martyrs, they scored well above that this week and lost - a result that will probably not happen again this side of the playoffs. The 279 points I scored this week would have been the second best result in all of last year. Doesn't get easier for me, though - I go from playing the second-highest scorer in the league to the third this week against Johnson & Johnson.

An interesting aside, my top 5 draft picks averaged 25 points in Week 1.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Lesson

Since I'm the reigning league champ, and got the inside track to repeat with my blowout score this week, I feel I'm in a position to offer some team management advice. 

Today's lesson is in "baselining".

*Establishing baseline performance*

A baseline performance at a position is the highest score among all free agents (not on a roster) assuming perfect rostering by all teams. For example, this league starts 1 QB, so 20 QBs will start. The baseline score at the position would therefore be the 21st best QB result, with 1-20 all being rostered in the ideal case. In 2013, this was Geno Smith with 275 points during the season.

A baseline is the minimum you can expect your opponent to score - you want to do better than that, to win.

In a case where there are two or more slots for a position, the baseline equation is (slots per team x number of teams)+1, so the 61st WR, 41st RB, 21st TE are all baseline-establishing players. Same goes for the defensive side of the ball.

In the case of flex and IDP flex positions, this can push the baseline further down. With one flex W/R/T position, the baseline for WR, RB, and TE will be below the top 20 players that are below the positional baselines, from whichever position they come from. If these are 12 WR, 6 RB, and 2 TE, then the new baselines become the 73rd WR, 47th RB, and 23rd TE.

Last year I calculated baselines for WR and RB at 125 points over the course of the season. My guesses as to other baselines are QB 275, TE 115, LB 65, DL 50, DB 60.

There's no reason to baseline DEF or K because the statistical variation among these players is so small, and performance is so unreliable game to game. Even if you have the best of each, it's still a crapshoot. 

Establishing a baseline gives you the ability to set a numeric value on players that can be compared across positions. If I have a 150-point/season LB, I can compare him directly to a WR - the LB gives me +85 points over baseline over the season, so a baseline+85 WR (210 points) is equal value to that LB. Note that these value calculations are different than what Yahoo uses, but they are more accurate.

*Make some moves*

If there's a glaring need in our league, it's at IDP. There are a shocking number of zeros in rosters this week. If you see a zero, you need to make a change to your roster!

Looking a the performance this week, there are a great many players, especially at DB/DL positions but also at LB, who were among the top scorers yet sit on the free agent list, while team after team is serving up zeroes in their positions. These are FREE POINTS for you if you have a zero. There's no excuse not to drop the zeroes and pick up the guys who actually scored points; the only question is how much better than zero they will be. Some of the guys available are a LOT better, turning in elite-level scoring this week. You MUST grab them to manage your team effectively. If you do not, you are going to lose consistently to teams that do!

*D-flex spots*

There are two IDP flex spots per team. In almost all cases these should be filled with linebackers. If you have more than 2 DB and 2 DL on your team, you are leaving points on the table every week - linebackers base a point a game or more higher than those positions. D-flex positions should have LB, LB.

*It's a Math game*

The bottom line is that this is a game of numbers. Higher numbers win. Anything you can do to consistently push your team's number higher on an every-game basis is something you should do if you want to make the playoffs. Taking the extra points offered in IDP slots is vital to getting these higher scores - they should be scoring a third of your overall team points. If they are not, your IDP lineup needs an upgrade. Note I scored 279 this week even though I have one actual zero and one virtual zero (0.4 points) in my offensive lineup. Part of that was some standout offensive performances, but what will keep my score high week after week will be getting the extra 80points/week from IDP that most other teams aren't getting. If you have zeroes in your lineup (and almost all teams do) you should do the same.

Your team can be better than mine on the offensive side of the ball and I can still blow you out with IDP advantages. The only way to nullify my advantage is to get your own IDP in order. I'd be happy to steamroll the league (again), but even happier to have a more challenging league top-to-bottom.

----------


## thoughtomator

I missed the all-time points scored record by 5.2, however it looks like I got the all-time record for IDP points this week at 85.5

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Odds of victory for Jesse Benton's Corpse have also dropped to 3:2, leaving three matches to be decided in this final, upcoming SD-ARI game. Luck to all...


Jesse Benton's Corpse haha...these are great names!

----------


## Nirvikalpa

> Definitely some surprises this week... top things that caught my notice this morning were how Nirva's team blew away their projections to steal a longshot win, and two highly-rated teams who turned in some decidedly average performances.
> 
> The top-2-scorers-playing-each-other thing is definitely happening, so my game vs. brandon is going to come down to the performance of Stafford and company. Longbombs looks to be coming in 3rd overall this week, with a big gap between his expected score (222ish) and the next best expected score (196ish).


I almost couldn't believe it myself.  That was pure luck.

----------


## thoughtomator

> I almost couldn't believe it myself.  That was pure luck.


If you take those six IDP players who scored less than a point and replace them with the best available players you'll be scoring in that range more often, even without an exceptional performance on the offensive side.

I've scored over 200 points now 12 games straight in this league going back to last season, and good IDP is the main reason why that happens. Don't leave those 30-50 points on the table!

----------


## TNforPaul45

Well I have done about all I can with my team. No real choices now just options.

----------


## thoughtomator

Good job on IDP fixin, I see you grabbed at least four players off my IDP watch list. I would bet you see at least 30 points improvement over last week.

----------


## thoughtomator

NFL drug suspension rules changed...

Josh Gordon is suspended 10 games now. If his owner can make it to the playoffs, that will be a scary matchup!

Welker is unsuspended immediately.

There are a number of other lesser-impact players who will also be affected.


In other news, Adrian Peterson may be in a heap of trouble.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

I have several good IDPs on my roster that I'm looking to trade.

----------


## thoughtomator

> I have several good IDPs on my roster that I'm looking to trade.


Me too! So easy with so few people having an idea of who to get, to cherry pick the best of the best.

----------


## brandon

> NFL drug suspension rules changed...
> 
> Josh Gordon is suspended 10 games now. If his owner can make it to the playoffs, that will be a scary matchup!
> 
> Welker is unsuspended immediately.
> 
> There are a number of other lesser-impact players who will also be affected.
> 
> 
> In other news, Adrian Peterson may be in a heap of trouble.


All the stories I can find say the repeal of Welkers suspension for this week is still up in the air. I hope he's back!

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

When is he due back?

----------


## thoughtomator

> All the stories I can find say the repeal of Welkers suspension for this week is still up in the air. I hope he's back!


The unsuspension is immediate, whether he'll actually be ready to play this weekend is what's up in the air - at least that's my understanding at this time. Either way, count off the games until the next concussion.

----------


## thoughtomator

In other news, I've now traded all the IDP studs I'm willing to trade, so anyone still looking for help there can go to Bastiat. I probably gave too much for Nelson - giving up Willis in particular is going to hurt - but when I like a player enough I am willing to go overboard to get them. It was made much easier by getting Burfict on waivers yesterday. I have no idea why Vontaze Burfict was dropped... that's the IDP equivalent dropping Brandon Marshall because he spends two games out with an ankle tweak.

I'm still willing to trade Julius Thomas, and I guess all I need moving forward are better RBs. So if someone's got a strong, healthy RB they're willing to let go in exchange for Thomas, look me up. For the right guy I'll throw in extra players too.

----------


## thoughtomator

Week 2 Fantasy Football Lesson

For Week 2, I'm going to delve a little deeper into IDP (Individual Defensive Players) and how to handle that side of the ball. In this league, with 9 IDP spots, understanding as much as you can about how this works is quite important to being competitive. Even if you managed to overcome an IDP deficit in Week 1, statistically it's not very likely to occur and you don't want to depend on outlier performances on offense every week.

In our league, IDP positions are divided into three groups: Defensive Backs, Defensive Linemen, and Linebackers.

A basic review of typical NFL defensive schemes is useful in understanding IDP. All NFL teams use either a 4-3 scheme or a 3-4 scheme on defense. The first number is the amount of "down linemen" (big guys who line up on the line of scrimmage opposite the offensive line) and the second number is the number of linebackers, who will most often be just behind the linemen.

*Linemen (DL)*

Linemen come in two major flavors: Tackles (DL), and Ends (DE). In a 3-4 scheme, there will be one tackle, usually lined up in the center of the formation. This position is called "Nose Tackle". In a 4-3 scheme, there will be two of these guys, one offset to the left of the ball and the other just to the right of the ball. In those cases these guys are known as "Defensive Tackles". These are almost always the heaviest, strongest guys on a defense. In both types of schemes, there will be two "Defensive Ends", one on the left, one on the right. Statistically, ends usually have a scoring advantage over tackles, unless a tackle is a superior player. In our scoring system there is no distinction between tackles and ends; so if you do not have an elite or very-strong tackle on your roster, it is usually a good idea to fill those DL spots with ends.

In terms of fantasy relevance, elite DL players offer the strongest statistical advantage of all IDP players. This is because the drop-off from the top guys to the baseline player is a good deal steeper than at other positions. The equivalent on the offensive side of the ball is the TE position; you have a few guys in the elite category and everyone else is way below them. So even though DL players score less on average than linebackers, the best ones can offer you more points above baseline than the best linebackers. Mind you, this is points above the DL baseline, not points above the baseline for all defensive players - the linebacker baseline is significantly higher, so playing a DL in a D-flex spot is not advised.

Linemen tend to be relatively consistent because they rarely come off the field, even when alternate defensive formations designed to protect against the pass ("nickel", "dime" defenses) are in play.

On a very rare occasion, a lineman will be used on offense as a heavy running back at the goal line. The theory behind this is it's a hell of a job to stop a 330-lb guy with a head of steam behind him, when he only needs one yard or less to score. (NYJ is notorious for using Sheldon Richardson this way.) It does happen but it's very rare. Still, it's great for your team when this happens.


*Defensive Backs (DB)*

Defensive backs are on the other end of the defense; these are the guys who cover wide receivers and sometimes pass-catching tight ends. Defensive backs come in three flavors; in general order of fantasy desirability, there is the Strong Safety (SS), who plays mid-deep on the stronger side of the offensive formation (whichever side the offense's TE is lined up at); the Free Safety (FS), who plays deeper and most often assists with covering receivers; and the Cornerback (CB) who is devoted specifically to covering a WR in most cases. In terms of fantasy points, strong safeties tend to score the most because they help in run defense more often than FS and CB positions do, and thus can get extra opportunities to make tackles for points. Very good FS and CB players can still score more than an average SS, but generally across the board SS is the position most desirable for fantasy purposes.

DBs of all types are far more likely to get INTs and pick-6 chances by virtue of their pass-covering roles.

Of particular note are "shutdown corners", guys like Darelle Revis. These players are the ones you would want on your NFL team, but you do NOT want them on your fantasy team. The reason why is that the ball rarely gets thrown in their direction because they are so incredibly good at defending passes and covering receivers. As a result, they counter-intuitively have fewer opportunities for interceptions and tackles, as offenses avoid them, and are thus mediocre point-scorers. A good-but-not-great CB is a better bet for fantasy purposes.

*Linebackers (LB)*

Linebackers are the simplest of the three groups to come to terms with. Linebackers will always be listed as position LB in the player list. On their teams, they may be listed as "MLB" (middle linebacker), "ILB" (inside linebacker), or "OLB" (outside linebacker). In a 4-3 scheme there are three linebackers, so the guy in the middle is a MLB, and the guys on the outside are OLBs. In a 3-4 scheme, there are two guys in the middle, and these are called ILBs. 

What you want most in a linebacker is a player who will stay on the field even in nickel and dime packages - "three down" linebackers. In those sub-packages, a linebacker or two is typically removed from the defense in favor of adding extra cornerbacks - this is to compensate for offensive formations with 3, 4, or 5 WR on the field, who generally require a CB to cover them. Linebackers who stay on the field in these cases get more opportunities than those who get lifted for a CB.

MLB/ILB generally get more tackle opportunities as they're likely to be closer to the ball, being in the middle of the field. OLBs get more sack opportunities as they are more likely to be called on to blitz. An OLB is more likely to be lifted in a sub-package.

*Consistency vs. Big-Play*

Just like on the offensive side of the ball, there are defensive players who consistently and reliably stack up tackles every game, by the virtue of the role they play on defense. Linebackers have a heavy advantage in this category. Consistent scoring has a lot of virtue in a fantasy scenario; they will score some points every game and will rarely stick you with a zero. DBs and DLs (especially DEs) generally rely more on interceptions and sacks, respectively, to compile points. While these are more points per, they are far rarer than a simple tackle. A defense will rack up dozens of tackles during the course of a game, but usually only 1-2 INTs and 2-6 sacks.

I personally prefer to use linebackers for consistency, as the position lends itself to high-tackle-number players, while using DBs and DLs for their big-play opportunities.

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> In other news, I've now traded all the IDP studs I'm willing to trade, so anyone still looking for help there can go to Bastiat. I probably gave too much for Nelson - giving up Willis in particular is going to hurt - but when I like a player enough I am willing to go overboard to get them. It was made much easier by getting Burfict on waivers yesterday. I have no idea why Vontaze Burfict was dropped... that's the IDP equivalent dropping Brandon Marshall because he spends two games out with an ankle tweak.
> 
> I'm still willing to trade Julius Thomas, and I guess all I need moving forward are better RBs. So if someone's got a strong, healthy RB they're willing to let go in exchange for Thomas, look me up. For the right guy I'll throw in extra players too.


You didn't give up anywhere near too much for Nelson. Nelson is a likely top 10 WR, and there are multiple - as many as 10 - players still on the wire at LB who may score within 10% of Willis' season total. There are 0 WR on the wire who will score within 50% of Nelson's total.

----------


## thoughtomator

> You didn't give up anywhere near too much for Nelson. Nelson is a likely top 10 WR, and there are multiple - as many as 10 - players still on the wire at LB who may score within 10% of Willis' season total. There are 0 WR on the wire who will score within 50% of Nelson's total.


I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.

----------


## thoughtomator

This week is injury/suspension carnage... key players all over the place going down. Ugly!

----------


## Christian Liberty

> I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.


That be how the market works

----------


## thoughtomator

This is shaping up to be the oddest week of football I have seen in years. Eli Manning suddenly a good QB? Mohammad Sanu a WR1 and part-time QB? Backup QBs for multiple teams all performing well? Spiller 102yd return TD? Graham pulling a zero for a full half then posting 26 points in 6 minutes? Dallas playing competent defense? Bears with not enough WRs on the roster to play a normal game?

----------


## thoughtomator

crazy low scoring this week... only 5 teams are beating projections, and only 1 team is currently projected to be over 200 points

----------


## thoughtomator

3 potential big upsets on the table, all from teams projected to be down 30 points or more... Danno, Benton's Corpse, and Freedom Fanatics all poised to win as serious underdogs

----------


## thoughtomator

Now Jamaal Charles exits early... what a massacre on name players this week. This is on top of both CHI WR1s, RG3, AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Carson Palmer, Lamar Miller, Roy Helu, Burfict again, Jon Beason, MJD, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Cameron, Cecil Shorts (plus more I can't list all right now) being injured and out, as well as Peterson and Hardy being behavioral scratches.

----------


## thoughtomator

More crazy injuries... Allen Hurns leaves on crutches, Toby Gerhart suffering more ankle problems, Gerald McCoy (a Pro Bowl DL) with a broken hand... not even at halftime on the midday games. It's possible we don't get a single 200-point team this week.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Now Jamaal Charles exits early... what a massacre on name players this week. This is on top of both CHI WR1s, RG3, AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Carson Palmer, Lamar Miller, Roy Helu, Burfict again, Jon Beason, MJD, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Cameron, Cecil Shorts (plus more I can't list all right now) being injured and out, as well as Peterson and Hardy being behavioral scratches.


Knile Davis is playing really well right now, 18 points and counting.  Too bad I didn't start him this time

What was Charles' injury?  How bad was it?

----------


## thoughtomator

> Knile Davis is playing really well right now, 18 points and counting.  Too bad I didn't start him this time
> 
> What was Charles' injury?  How bad was it?


Knile Davis always plays well when he gets the opportunity. Charles' injury seems relatively minor right now but we're waiting on more details.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Knile Davis always plays well when he gets the opportunity. Charles' injury seems relatively minor right now but we're waiting on more details.


I knew Davis was a steal in the last round (may have been second to last, which wouldn't change that) since there's lots of potential there.

----------


## thoughtomator

Ryan Matthews just carted off the field with a serious leg injury... this would be comical if it weren't so tragic.

and now add Eric Berry with an ankle injury

Tavon Austin with a "potentially serious" knee injury too

----------


## thoughtomator

JBC and Freedom Fanatics are running away with their upsets... Danno in a nail-biter... and now the Direwolves have a chance to be big upset #4 this week. Everything's gone haywire with all the injuries!

----------


## Christian Liberty

Holy Cow WRT Davis' numbers.  26 points and counting.  Absolutely insane.

----------


## thoughtomator

I am greatly relieved that KC is on bye the week I play you

----------


## muzzled dogg

Wow I got smoked

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Don't forget JJ Watt catching touchdown passes and Chandler Jones and some LB from the Redskins having 20+ point games on the defensive side of the ball.  

Strange.  Funny.  Tragic.  And lessons in morality.  Has all the making for a Greek tragedy.

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.


Perhaps 5 years and thousands of collisions ago, Willis could be the equivalent to Bowman. There's a reason Bowman was the lead LB for the 49ers last season - it's because he's better than Willis at this point in their careers. Willis isn't going to come close to 170 points this season.

There are no WR on the wire that are projected to score more than about 6 points a game, compared to Nelson's 15+, unless you want to bank on Odell Beckham to save the Giants' season in a few weeks.

TL;DR you can find replacements for Willis and Woodyard on your wire. You can't find a replacement for Nelson. If Nirv wanted an upgrade at LB, she could have just dropped the bums she traded you and picked up replacements (as you are going to do), while keeping who might be the top scoring WR, and a potential top 20 player in points period. Stop the false modesty, you hoodwinked a competitor and got the clear best end of the deal.

----------


## thoughtomator

We'll see... it's not like I got a guy posting top-5 QB numbers every week and a high-end WR2 for a QB everyone who was paying attention knew would get hurt, and suck badly until he did, plus a WR who already sucks. Now _that_ would be hoodwinking.

I'll confess that I did encourage everyone to fix their IDP lineups to deplete the wire and increase the trade value of the guys I had, but once it was, the value was good. Last week I could have replaced those guys a lot more easily than I can this week. When I make trade offers I always make sure the other side is getting decent value, so that they'll trade with me again in the future. Just because Nelson just posted the game of his life (which I won't benefit from) doesn't make it a bad deal.

Bowman is better than Willis (I had Bowman last year), but he's out for a long duration, and they're both star quality. Willis has been a reliable high floor IDP guy which is what his value is, and he was only one of three good LBs I traded away. Yahoo thinks he's due to finish #4 at his position and all the IDP ADP lists seem to agree. If you think you can find guys of this quality on the wire, name them. I'm not bad at picking LBs and there's nobody (left) on my watch list that strikes me as a replacement for the ones traded, and I wouldn't have used mid-round picks on all the best IDP I could get my hands on if I thought there was a chance they'd be wire-replaceable. If those guys were replaceable, then I wouldn't have been able set a league IDP record (getting no single score over 15 points) last week by using them.

update: just checked my list... there's exactly one uninjured LB left on it when I had 15 last week, not even enough to fill the vacated spots in my roster

----------


## brandon

> Stop the false modesty, you hoodwinked a competitor


Yea I would have voted to veto that trade if I realized it was happening.

----------


## thoughtomator

I think you guys may be quite surprised at how much the trade ends up helping Nirva's team over the long run, IDP zeros week after week are a sure-fire team killer. She's got a shot at the playoffs now when she didn't before. Yahoo eval gave her a +188 point net on the trade, and while I don't think it was quite that good overall it still improved her team significantly.

----------


## brandon

We all agree that zeros are a killer but the point is there's tons of dudes on the wire that are projected to score 7 or 8 points. There was no reason to trade for a defensive player when they are plentiful in FA.

----------


## thoughtomator

There are exactly 2 uninjured LB on the wire projected to score more than 95 points over the whole season. There are also exactly 2 LB available projected to score more than 7 points in week 3. If everybody were filling their spots properly there would be none over 70 points projected, or week 3 over 5 points. Feel free to check it out yourself. If you believe I know the game better, then ask yourself why I was the first to pull IDP in the draft - the value over baseline of these players is real and significant which is why I stocked up on them. You'll notice other high-scoring teams did the same - I'm not the only one who sees that value.

Based on projections alone, I got Nelson with a season projection of 256 points, or about 130 over baseline. I gave up LBs with +80, +45, and +25 projections over baseline, or +150 total. There's no significant injury risk to alter the projected value. I paid a 20-point-over baseline premium for Nelson, and I did so because a) I think he'll exceed his projection; and b) I think I'll make better-than-average guesses on the LBs I'll pull to fill in the spots. Nelson may be a big-name player but on pure calculations alone this is a favorable deal for the other side.

If you think I'm trying to spin this, offer me a deal that, based on my baseline calculations and season projections, give me a +20 net. If I'm not being offered a load of injury risk in the package I'll be highly likely to take it.

Compared to the deals I struck to get Demaryius Thomas and Nelson last year, this is quite even. Last year those trades I made were +100 or more in my favor - each - but nobody seemed to think they were even slightly unfair.

----------


## thoughtomator

In other news, Injury Week is even worse than previously reported. JC out 4-6 weeks; Mark Ingram, who was suddenly becoming a viable fantasy RB, out 6 weeks with a hand injury. RG3 out 6-8 weeks and probably will be a backup when healthy anyway as Cousins is a much better QB. Also add Eric Decker (hamstring) to the injury list. Matthews is listed as 4-5 weeks with a sprained MCL, which is actually good news compared to yesterday. Carson Palmer is out indefinitely with a nerve issue. Vernon Davis was spotted on crutches. Moreno is listed as out 4-8 weeks.

On the not-so-bad injury side of things, DeSean Jackson looks like he'll be OK for next week, and AJ Green's toe injury doesn't look like it will keep him out of any games.

If you'd asked me at season start to name the five highly-drafted players most likely to get injured, I'd have named Arian Foster, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson, and probably DeMarco Murray as the last. Oddly enough, none got hurt in any serious way on a day when injuries are ravaging teams in a big way.

----------


## Christian Liberty

I might be willing to trade Knile Davis for a solid WR.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law



----------


## thoughtomator

What the hell, may as well play along. We can revisit this at end of season to see who was right.

----------


## thoughtomator

aaaaaand Injury Week, also known as Week 2, is now in the record books!

The devastation and carnage left only 2 200+ point teams this week; Voluntaryist Victory with a very strong 227 point performance, and the Argonauts who slipped in at 207. Most everyone else is looking at the ugly results of the biggest stream of injuries in one week in living memory.

Two big upsets and a little one, as Freedom Fanatics and Jesse Benton's Corpse pull it out this week. Danno also pulls the upset, squeaking in a victory over Taxachusetts.

In the non-upset category, Yvonne's Dolphins and No Money Big Mouths manage to hold off uncomfortably close challenges to win this week; the latter saved by the surprise performances of Bobby Rainey and Ahmad Bradshaw, two players who may well wrest the starting jobs on their respective teams with superior play, which augurs well for NMBM's future. The other five games were not particularly close and all won by the favorites.

In the unlikely-heroes category for the week, Darren Sproles decided he'd try out as an elite WR and did pretty well at it. Delanie Walker continues to do his best Jimmy Graham impression for the second week in a row - do we have an emerging elite TE here? Jay Cutler posts a second week of elite QB scores, once again depositing them on the bench. Antonio Gates clearly time-traveled into the past to swap places with his former self this week, and Sammy Watkins - for one game at least - lives up to his top rookie receiver billing.

After only two weeks there are a mere five undefeated teams left - so far it's looking like a more competitive league than last year.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Just giving you crap thoughtomator.  Jordy is an early 2nd round talent.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> I might be willing to trade Knile Davis for a solid WR.


Anyone?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Anyone?


What are you thinking?

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

The corpse of Benton will reign!

----------


## thoughtomator

> Anyone?


I couldn't offer you any better than Jon Brown right now, but if I had Torrey Smith I'd be seriously considering offering him up in exchange.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> What are you thinking?


I'm not sure.  I was hoping someone would offer me a WR and then I'd look at the stats and decide if I wanted to take it or not.  I have enough RBs that I don't strictly NEED Knile.  I was curious if whoever has Jamaal Charles might be interested in a trade along those lines, but I'd potentially trade with anyone that has any WR that's better than what I currently have.  I can only play 3RBs at a time.

----------


## thoughtomator

anyone who stocked up on Atlanta players is having a good night tonight... crazy numbers in this game and it's still mid 3rd quarter - 7 TD all Atlanta, 7 fumbles between the two teams

----------


## thoughtomator

this game is turning into one of the all-time greatest ass kickings the NFL has ever seen... time to go look up the record books

----------


## thoughtomator

Looks like I'm going to take my first loss since Week 4 of last season... 15 game streak, broken. Still got a 1 in 4 chance of pulling it out, but not counting on it. Not much rolled right for me this week.

----------


## dannno

Wow, go on vacation for a few days and my team implodes..

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> Wow, go on vacation for a few days and my team implodes..


That's how it goes in fantasy football. Incredibly random and things change on a dime.

----------


## thoughtomator

Playing pretty much the same guys my scoring has dropped by more than half in 2 weeks. One thing fantasy football is not, is predictable - that's why my strategy is centered around trying to tweak probabilities, because certainties don't exist.

----------


## thoughtomator

Talk about outliers - 6/9 on IDP, and 6/10 in the standard roster, scored season lows all at the same time. None of the guys who didn't really went off this week. The two guys I benched this week scored season highs (and it wouldn't have mattered if I played them, still lose). Ouch!

----------


## thoughtomator

An interesting Week 3 for RPF league. 3 of the 5 undefeated teams fell this week, leaving Voluntaryist Victory and Jesse Benton's Corpse at the top of the league with 3-0 records. Four teams remain winless. Nearly 3/4 of the league fell under projected score, with only one 200-point score this week (Philadelphia Martyrs with 213), and only four teams scored above 180 points, which was good enough to win in each case. In a statistical curiosity, four teams scored between 139.2 and 139.5 points, posting a collective 1-3 record among them this week.

Julio Jones and DeMarco Murray are the only WR/RB/TE players above 80 points through week 3; four more have above 70 points, and three of those are on the Philadelphia Martyrs team. The 25th ranked skill position player (Knile Davis) has 52 points on the season; the 50th-ranked (Victor Cruz) has 42; 75th-ranked (Markus Wheaton) has 34; and the 100th-ranked (Allen Robinson) has 28.

In the QB department, top draft picks Manning, Brees, and Rogers are currently in 4th, 8th, and 10th places respectively. Dark horse QB1 Jay Cutler is in 5th, who is owned by the same team that owns Nick Foles at #2 (No Money Big Mouths).

In the IDP department, the top-ranked player is surprisingly LB Jelani Jenkins with 38 points; the top DB is Antoine Cason with 33; and the top DL is Chandler Jones with 28.

From here on in, per-game averages become more meaningful than overall accumulated points, as bye weeks screw with the numbers.

----------


## thoughtomator

couldn't sleep worth a damn tonight, but my consolation is getting first dibs on free agents this morning

and I noticed that Alex Jones Forever has so many starters on bye this week (10!) that they've essentially forfeit (a valid bye week management strategy, but very risky when already 0-3)

----------


## thoughtomator

I'm interested in trading for Chris Ivory and/or Lamar Miller, if you have these players and are up to trade them make me an offer.

----------


## Christian Liberty

I'd be willing to trade something for Wes Welker if ISIS (lol) is willing to trade him.

----------


## thoughtomator

Hope you all are busy scoring points for Stevie Johnson today.

https://twitter.com/StevieJohnson13/...27178832175104

----------


## thoughtomator

I hereby declare Jesse Benton's Corpse to be the luckiest team in the RPF league.

----------


## muzzled dogg

Patriots need to get their ish together

----------


## thoughtomator

Patriots players are hard to own, I try to avoid them unless the deal is simply too good to pass up. Belichek's injury policy (everyone is always "questionable") causes too many did-not-play zero scores for people depending on those players; it was worthwhile in some cases when the Pats were one of the highest-scoring teams in the league with a solid defense as well. Now that they appear to be losing it, these players are treacherous to own. I have Gronk in a Yahoo Public league I'm using as a control test, and even though he is pretty much guaranteed to score a TD every week, the injury situation has me constantly worried.

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

I thought my team was dog $#@!, but we're somehow undefeated! It must be good luck because my team name is a dig at Jesse Benton

----------


## thoughtomator

I'm going to be biting my nails awaiting stat corrections. Looks like I have a win, barely, but a handful of tackles rescored as tackle assists and I lose!

----------


## asurfaholic

How about that Liberty Rising club having enough points to beat all but 1 team in the league. Starting to get into this fantasy thing.....

----------


## thoughtomator

Looks like I get to match up against a 7-0 JBC next week. Amazing he managed that record while scoring fewer points per game than the average team in the league.

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> Looks like I get to match up against a 7-0 JBC next week. Amazing he managed that record while scoring fewer points per game than the average team in the league.


In another of my leagues, the first place team has scored the fewest points in the league. Last season in the same league, I scored 300 more points than the next nearest team and still didn't make the playoffs.

Head to head is stupid.

----------


## dannno

> Head to head is stupid.


The NFL is stupid?

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> The NFL is stupid?


How does a head to head format in fantasy football replicate the NFL experience (or any sport, for that matter)? In any way?

----------


## thoughtomator

> How does a head to head format in fantasy football replicate the NFL experience (or any sport, for that matter)? In any way?


I've seen plenty of teams with net negative points scored and winning records in the NFL. Schedule is part of the game; over time any imbalances that occur do even themselves out.

There are four teams for which this is true in the NFL right now: 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Steelers

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> I've seen plenty of teams with net negative points scored and winning records in the NFL. Schedule is part of the game; over time any imbalances that occur do even themselves out.
> 
> There are four teams for which this is true in the NFL right now: 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Steelers


Teams impact their opponent's scoring. In fantasy, nothing your team does impacts your opponent. That's a massive gulf that will never be crossed, and renders all attempts to replicate the real thing utterly pointless.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Teams impact their opponent's scoring. In fantasy, nothing your team does impacts your opponent. That's a massive gulf that will never be crossed, and renders all attempts to replicate the real thing utterly pointless.


Maybe good defensive performances should lower your opponents score instead of increasing your own?

It wouldn't actually make a difference but it could add some spice and vinegar.

I enjoy head to head, but then, its helping my crappy team this year.

Notably I won by less than one point this week.

----------


## thoughtomator

You can at least affect your opponents' options by who you keep on your team and who you dump onto the waiver wire.

There are some leagues that do just take a running tally of points scored during the season and whoever gets the most is champ. However, most of FF doesn't work that way, it works like we have it. Those are objective rules, everyone gets an equal chance to benefit or be hobbled by the things that might happen - it's part of our game, just as a freak ball-tipped-for-interception is part of the real game.

I can't really think of a good way to make it so you can affect your opponent's score while changing the game in any substantial way. You could say that IDP and/or DST score can be taken from the opponent, but there's no practical difference between that and simply adding those scores to yours.

If you could invent a way to make it happen, and make it FUN to do, then you'd have a potentially lucrative idea on your hands.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> In another of my leagues, the first place team has scored the fewest points in the league. Last season in the same league, I scored 300 more points than the next nearest team and still didn't make the playoffs.
> 
> Head to head is stupid.


I enjoy the unpredictability.

----------


## green73

Rivers has been amazing so far. Time to trade him.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

FYI: There's currently 4 teams that I'll be looking to replace this week.

----------


## thoughtomator

> I enjoy the unpredictability.


Without the unpredictability this game would not be challenging enough for me to hold my interest. As it is, I'm starting to think it's too easy - I'm 6-1 in both the leagues I'm playing in this year. Next year I might play in a money league just to see if it gets more interesting when people have a vested interest in playing the best they can.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Without the unpredictability this game would not be challenging enough for me to hold my interest. As it is, I'm starting to think it's too easy - I'm 6-1 in both the leagues I'm playing in this year. Next year I might play in a money league just to see if it gets more interesting when people have a vested interest in playing the best they can.


To that end, I've had an idea about starting a Tournament of Champions league where only 1st and 2nd place teams from my various leagues get an invite.  

I don't know if you're a MMA fan, but back in the day the UFC would hold a tournament of champions and top contenders called the "Ultimate Ultimate". That's where I got the idea.  Money as an added incentive could work too.

----------


## thoughtomator

Barring a miracle, Jesse Benton's Corpse is taking its first loss today.

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

> Looks like I get to match up against a 7-0 JBC next week. Amazing he managed that record while scoring fewer points per game than the average team in the league.


$#@! all the haters. Although it looks like I'm finally going down this week. Byes have ravaged my team and I am starting some real bums.

----------


## thoughtomator

if I outscore Longbombs by 15 or he loses this week (the latter being surprisingly possible) I will reclaim my rightful place as the top team in the league 

Haters, line forms here
            |
            v

----------


## brandon

lol my QB scored -0.75 points today

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> lol my QB scored -0.75 points today


What the? lol

----------


## thoughtomator

There's one very odd scenario I just noticed - if Philadelphia Martyrs outscores me by 5 and wins his game, he will simultaneously be #1 overall in the league... and 2nd in our division. Let's hear it for Yahoo's inconsistent tiebreakers!

----------


## brandon

> There's one very odd scenario I just noticed - if Philadelphia Martyrs outscores me by 5 and wins his game, he will simultaneously be #1 overall in the league... and 2nd in our division. Let's hear it for Yahoo's inconsistent tiebreakers!


Also... we both currently have exactly 173.15 points for the week, What are the odds?

----------


## thoughtomator

> Also... we both currently have exactly 173.15 points for the week, What are the odds?


Pretty damn low, but I do have a couple of IDP left to go this week.

Also Voluntaryist Victory has a shot at #1 this week if he outscores me by 40, and Longbombs also still has a decent chance to pull out a win this week, which would make him #1 if he does. Could end up with 5 teams at 7-1, with the #6 team at 5-3 after the week.

----------


## brandon

Id be a lock for #1 if my qb was anyone at all besides geno smith

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Pretty damn low, but I do have a couple of IDP left to go this week.
> 
> Also Voluntaryist Victory has a shot at #1 this week if he outscores me by 40, and Longbombs also still has a decent chance to pull out a win this week, which would make him #1 if he does. Could end up with 5 teams at 7-1, with the #6 team at 5-3 after the week.


And the plot thicken

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Id be a lock for #1 if my qb was anyone at all besides geno smith


You're one trade away from securing that spot.  Go bold my friend.

----------


## thoughtomator

I can't complain about the results, although holding onto the top spot over the next two weeks is going to be a challenge. Maybe I can actually outperform my projection one of these weeks - so far, I've underperformed them 6 out of 8 weeks to date.

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

I'm lookin to deal. RB or TE for a WR, team is Jesse Bentons Corpse

----------


## thoughtomator

Tight game for me and Bastiat this week!

----------


## thoughtomator

Crazy tight game... point spread 1.5 going into Sunday evening. This will almost certainly come down to Monday night to be decided!

----------


## Christian Liberty

> You're one trade away from securing that spot.  Go bold my friend.


I'd be willing to trade Derek Carr if he's willing to give me an offer.  He's not the best QB in the entire world, but he did score 20 fantasy points this week.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Tight game for me and Bastiat this week!


Clowney not playing is straight up killing me.  He's teasing me worse than a girl on prom night.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Crazy tight game... point spread 1.5 going into Sunday evening. This will almost certainly come down to Monday night to be decided!


Definitely coming down to the Monday night game!  I'll be watching intensely.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I'd be willing to trade Derek Carr if he's willing to give me an offer.  He's not the best QB in the entire world, but he did score 20 fantasy points this week.


Carr is an adequate fill-in.  Geno Smith sure ain't gonna lead you to the promised land.

----------


## thoughtomator

> Clowney not playing is straight up killing me.  He's teasing me worse than a girl on prom night.


I had the same thing happen with Willis. We're down to OBJ +6.8 points against your two IDP and one RB. My last hope to pull out a W this week is that the Giants have a shootout since they're playing Indy.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

We're about an hour from game time now.

----------


## thoughtomator

Seems every year I find myself rooting for Peyton Hillis...

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Dammit, Rolle almost had a pick!

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Down by 2.3 points

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Make that .3 points now

----------


## thoughtomator

You're up by 0.7 on my radar. Stat corrections might screw with that though, solo tackles become tackle assists at a pretty significant rate in post-game adjustments.

I'm just waiting for that one decent pass to OBJ to save my game.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> You're up by 0.7 on my radar. Stat corrections might screw with that though, solo tackles become tackle assists at a pretty significant rate in post-game adjustments.
> 
> I'm just waiting for that one decent pass to OBJ to save my game.


Very true.  Looks like they gave Rolle a point for pushing a guy out of bounds or tackling him out of bounds, not sure that one will hold up.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I'm just waiting for that one decent pass to OBJ to save my game.

----------


## thoughtomator

> 


and of course Williams gets the TD... I'm back to needing that one more good pass again

----------


## thoughtomator

In case you're wondering about the score discrepancy between the StatTracker and the Yahoo site, it appears the former is unable to account for tackles made by offensive players. The Yahoo site is the correct score.

----------


## thoughtomator

Well, looks like Eli will be doing a lot of throwing for the rest of the game... OBJ only needs 22 yards for that +5 point bonus.

----------


## thoughtomator

Garbage time heroics, baby! Back in the lead!!

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Carr is an adequate fill-in.  Geno Smith sure ain't gonna lead you to the promised land.


Exactly.  I have Cam Newton so I don't actually need Carr in order to win.  I need a good RB or WR.

----------


## thoughtomator

> Exactly.  I have Cam Newton so I don't actually need Carr in order to win.  I need a good RB or WR.


Bastiat cannot answer your call right now, he's busy throwing fragile things at walls

----------


## Christian Liberty

I just stuck Carr on the block.  I'm pretty open minded ATM.  Its not much, but I'd also be willing to toss in Davis or Ball for a solid RB or WR.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Bastiat cannot answer your call right now, he's busy throwing fragile things at walls


Including small children...

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Beckham having the game of his life against me right now....ugh

----------


## thoughtomator

> Beckham having the game of his life against me right now....ugh


10 catches 104 yards on the season to date... 8 catches 156 yards tonight. Didn't even need the 100-yard bonus, and the spread is too much for stat corrections to cover. Damn, garbage time production against a prevent defense is a beautiful thing.

----------


## brandon

Fuk man thought won? Damnit

----------


## thoughtomator

> Fuk man thought won? Damnit


Yep... but you got 1st place anyway, since you now have 6 more points scored on the season than I do.

----------


## asurfaholic

I seem to struggle getting over 150 points in a game

----------


## thoughtomator

> I seem to struggle getting over 150 points in a game


based on the history you need to upgrade RB and LB, both of which can be done fairly effectively through waivers and free agency

find guys who are on the uptrend and take some chances, some of them will work out and recycle the ones that don't

----------


## Christian Liberty

I really need a wide receiver.  I'm willing to trade Derek Carr for a receiver.

----------


## Christian Liberty

Bump.  I really need an offer ASAP.  I'm willing to be generous here.  Carr for a WR.

----------


## thoughtomator

I have one too many Arizona WRs and no place to play them, and a backup QB would be useful. Feel free to counter if you want John Brown instead, they're valued the same in my book.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> I have one too many Arizona WRs and no place to play them, and a backup QB would be useful. Feel free to counter if you want John Brown instead, they're valued the same in my book.


I accepted. Do you still want to trade me Hillman for Davis?

More realistically, I notice you have Fred Jackson on your block.  What are you looking for exactly?  If you're looking for RB depth (and I'm guessing you might be since you only have 3 of them total) I'd be willing to trade you two weaker RBs for Jackson.

----------


## thoughtomator

> I accepted. Do you still want to trade me Hillman for Davis?


Ha! You should have taken that offer when you had the chance. Davis only has value when JC is hurt.




> More realistically, I notice you have Fred Jackson on your block.  What are you looking for exactly?  If you're looking for RB depth (and I'm guessing you might be since you only have 3 of them total) I'd be willing to trade you two weaker RBs for Jackson.


I have to hold onto Jackson this week because I have no one else to play due to byes, but talk to me next week if you're still interested.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Ha! You should have taken that offer when you had the chance. Davis only has value when JC is hurt.


Yeah, I know.  I had a "funny feeling" that JC would get hurt, which sure enough, did happen.  But I didn't realize Montee Ball was going to get hurt too...  Ball and Spiller were awful picks.  Awful.  I'm actually impressed with myself for being 4-5 despite it (ANd I would have been 5-4 had I played Derek Anderson in week 1.)




> I have to hold onto Jackson this week because I have no one else to play due to byes, but talk to me next week if you're still interested.


Jackson may not actually play this week.  But, I will probably still be interested next week.  Almost certainly, in fact.

----------


## thoughtomator

Yech I'm stuck playing Lance Dunbar this week because I have no other non-injured, non-bye-week RB available. Sucks. Isn't it about time DeMarco Murray got hurt or something? He's way overdue.

I'm feeling better about my kicker situation, at least. Took me way too long to realize that Denver just doesn't do field goals. All McManus was putting up were extra points.

Since I only need to win 2 of the next 5 to assure myself a playoff spot, it's time to hoard my precious 18 remaining roster move allowance, so I think I am done trading unless something irresistible comes by. Not even worth it to sub in for bye week IDP for me anymore, since there's no real advantage to having the #1 seed vs. any other seed. I just want to avoid any playoff matchup with Philadelphia Martyrs and Voluntaryist Victory, so whatever seed lets me do that most effectively that's the one I want.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Yech I'm stuck playing Lance Dunbar this week because I have no other non-injured, non-bye-week RB available. Sucks. Isn't it about time DeMarco Murray got hurt or something? He's way overdue.
> 
> I'm feeling better about my kicker situation, at least. Took me way too long to realize that Denver just doesn't do field goals. All McManus was putting up were extra points.
> 
> Since I only need to win 2 of the next 5 to assure myself a playoff spot, it's time to hoard my precious 18 remaining roster move allowance, so I think I am done trading unless something irresistible comes by. Not even worth it to sub in for bye week IDP for me anymore, since there's no real advantage to having the #1 seed vs. any other seed. I just want to avoid any playoff matchup with Philadelphia Martyrs and Voluntaryist Victory, so whatever seed lets me do that most effectively that's the one I want.


So does that mean you're no longer willing to trade me Jackson?

----------


## thoughtomator

> So does that mean you're no longer willing to trade me Jackson?


Let's see where things stand on Tuesday

----------


## thoughtomator

If I actually had to win this week's game I'd be frantically looking for subs in four positions right now. But I only need to win 2 to have a guaranteed playoff spot, and my Week 13 matchup is practically a gimme win and I'm the odds-on favorite for the other three.

Next year I'm going to be a little less itchy-trigger-finger on the roster moves before Week 1, I burned way too many and it didn't help much.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Yech I'm stuck playing Lance Dunbar this week because I have no other non-injured, non-bye-week RB available. Sucks. Isn't it about time DeMarco Murray got hurt or something? He's way overdue.
> 
> I'm feeling better about my kicker situation, at least. Took me way too long to realize that Denver just doesn't do field goals. All McManus was putting up were extra points.
> 
> Since I only need to win 2 of the next 5 to assure myself a playoff spot, it's time to hoard my precious 18 remaining roster move allowance, so I think I am done trading unless something irresistible comes by. Not even worth it to sub in for bye week IDP for me anymore, since there's no real advantage to having the #1 seed vs. any other seed. I just want to avoid any playoff matchup with Philadelphia Martyrs and Voluntaryist Victory, so whatever seed lets me do that most effectively that's the one I want.


I'm shocked DeMarco Murray isn't sporting a body cast by now.  He continues to tear it up.

----------


## brandon

Looks like three 8 and 1 teams could lose this week.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> Looks like three 8 and 1 teams could lose this week.


That's interesting.

----------


## thoughtomator

Those teams didn't get to 8-1 because they go down easy.

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> Those teams didn't get to 8-1 because they go down easy.


I kind of punted this week to make my D stronger moving forward.

----------


## green73

Anybody have that Rodgers guy?

----------


## Feeding the Abscess

> Anybody have that Rodgers guy?


Me

----------


## thoughtomator

Me and the Martyrs look to have a lock on the top two seeds, of the rest only Voluntaryist has a realistic shot to pass one of us up - most likely in his playoff-preview match with the Martyrs later this season.

Other than that, JBC will probably back in, Longbombs looks pretty well set up, and then we got a whole mess of 6-4 and 5-5 teams who are going to fight it out for those last 3 playoff spots. Might be some outside shot at some 6-loss teams making it in but they'll need a lot of help to make that happen.

----------


## brandon

I do have a tough schedule left.... last four games against very competitive opponents. I'll likely lose as least one or two, but could possibly even lose out if the coin doesn't flip in my favor.  I should be good for the playoffs in any case though.

----------


## thoughtomator

I've already been through all the toughest opponents on my schedule... you guys get to beat each other up while I get the VIP lane to a top seed.

Poor Argonauts look like it may be out of the playoffs this year, that's the biggest surprise for me. Matchups have not been friendly.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I seem to struggle getting over 150 points in a game


Work those trades son.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I've already been through all the toughest opponents on my schedule... you guys get to beat each other up while I get the VIP lane to a top seed.
> 
> Poor Argonauts look like it may be out of the playoffs this year, that's the biggest surprise for me. Matchups have not been friendly.


It's been a tough season so far.  Never giving up though even if I go 7-7

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

Green Bay's defense might have $#@!ed me. I think Jesse Benton's political comeback might have ruined my team's good luck.

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

Nevermind. Love live Jordan Matthews and long die Jesse Benton's political career!

----------


## Christian Liberty

So, is there any willingness to trade me Fred Jackson?

----------


## thoughtomator

> So, is there any willingness to trade me Fred Jackson?


Sorry, I need him now that Hillman just went down.

In other news, I am now in the market for a solid linebacker.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Sorry, I need him now that Hillman just went down.
> 
> In other news, I am now in the market for a solid linebacker.


I think I have a couple decent ones if you want to offer me a trade.

Also, I noticed that Jesse Benton's Corpse got CJ Anderson.  I'm not sure if they want to trade him but I'm willing to trade for him if they are.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

I have a favorable schedule going forward.

----------


## puppetmaster

Any of you guys do the weekly games for money?

----------


## Christian Liberty

> I think I have a couple decent ones if you want to offer me a trade.
> 
> Also, I noticed that Jesse Benton's Corpse got CJ Anderson.  I'm not sure if they want to trade him but I'm willing to trade for him if they are.


bump.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> bump.


Do you have a RB by any chance?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

Looks like it's gonna be another nail biter going into this Monday night game for my team.

----------


## thoughtomator

> Any of you guys do the weekly games for money?


I had my first try at it yesterday. I won $22.50 on $15 of bets (net $7.50), which is better than I expected to do, given that my lineup didn't do all that well overall. I'm going to give it another go this weekend, and see how I can do with $50 of bets.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Do you have a RB by any chance?


I have several.  What are you willing to offer?

----------


## brandon

Man, I lost by 0.2 points this week. Ouch. Grats to my opponent...

----------


## asurfaholic

> Man, I lost by 0.2 points this week. Ouch. Grats to my opponent...


Thanks

----------


## thoughtomator

For you Fanduel folks, here's my lineup for this week (pending injury notices): Luck, Crowell, CJ Anderson, Gordon, Stills, Malcolm Floyd, Jimmy G, Dan Bailey, PHI

Keep in mind this is my second week doing this so I've still a lot to learn - but I came out 50% ahead on my bets in the first week.

----------


## Christian Liberty

I am willing to trade a QB (Hoyer or McCown) for an RB or WR.

----------


## Christian Liberty

Does anyone want to deal me a WR for Hoyer?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

I dont need a QB anymore.

----------


## NewRightLibertarian

Brandon LaFell better kick some serious ass for NE from this point on or Jesse Benton's Corpse is mince meat in the playoffs. Justin Cameron returning and kicking ass would help a lot as well.

----------


## Christian Liberty

> Brandon LaFell better kick some serious ass for NE from this point on or Jesse Benton's Corpse is mince meat in the playoffs. Justin Cameron returning and kicking ass would help a lot as well.


I doubt I'm even in the playoff running even if I win out, but I just traded LaFell so I'm hoping he doesn't do well anymore.


Does anyone need a QB?

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

I need a RB mostly, or maybe a TE.

----------


## thoughtomator

I got Julius Thomas still available for trade, nobody's even made me an offer yet. Also I got an extra RB (or two even). Make me an offer.

----------


## Christian Liberty

I can't really deal an RB or TE.  I need to deal a QB.

----------


## thoughtomator

Looks like Odell Beckham may be this year's Josh Gordon.

----------


## thoughtomator

The Fanduel team that I posted above got me a $151.50 payout on $70 of bets (net $81.50). Not bad for my second week ever of doing DFS right?

----------


## brandon

I'm afraid to play fan duel because I tend towards being a compulsive gambler. lol, don't want to make the first bet.

----------


## Bastiat's The Law

> I'm afraid to play fan dual because I tend towards being a compulsive gambler. lol, don't want to make the first bet.


I'd bet on UFC fights, but not football.

----------


## thoughtomator

> I'm afraid to play fan dual because I tend towards being a compulsive gambler. lol, don't want to make the first bet.


I'm actually the exact opposite. I have no desire to gamble at all. However a friend of mine pressed me into service when he got wind of how much I know about fantasy football, so I agreed to try it out on his dime. I've almost doubled his initial investment in 2 weeks.

----------


## brandon

> I'd bet on UFC fights, but not football.


Last MMA fight I bet on I took Fedor with like 5 to 1 odds he'd win. Of course that fight just happened to be the start of his downfall. lol... I gave up after that one.

----------


## puppetmaster

> I'm actually the exact opposite. I have no desire to gamble at all. However a friend of mine pressed me into service when he got wind of how much I know about fantasy football, so I agreed to try it out on his dime. I've almost doubled his initial investment in 2 weeks.


 This is a new site in beta mode.. difference with these guys is they pay referral commisions and a 100% deposit bonus right now. They will launch on the 4th so get in asap and refer some buddies that like and are good at this.  Help a fellow RPF member out  and sign up under my link please.
https://beta.fantasydraft.com/play/puppetmaster
https://beta.fantasydraft.com/play/puppetmaster


Sign up and make money even if you don't play but know others that do.

Thanks if you do and good luck. I will post my winnings next week.

----------


## thoughtomator

I'm going to get beat by the worst team in the league this week, and my DFS play went lame too. Oy!

----------


## thoughtomator

By George, it looks like I'm actually going to back into a win this week. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!

----------


## thoughtomator

Last week of the season... playoff field is almost set. Only 2 teams currently on the outside looking in have a shot to make it - No Money Big Mouths has a reasonable shot, if it wins and J&J or NH Free Staters lose. BrianEllisTrustFund can make it in if it beats the Big Mouths in this week's matchup, J&J loses, and it outscores J&J by more than 15.4 points this week. The six teams sitting at 9-4 or better are all locks for the playoffs; even though 9-4 technically doesn't yet clinch the spots, they all have more than enough season points accumulated to win the tiebreaker against the Big Mouths if they all end up at 9-5.

Several teams are on a major roll with some really strong scores in the past few games, the playoffs ought to be highly competitive this year. I'm going to need a ton of luck to repeat as champ.

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## brandon

I probably should have been more proactive working the waivers in the second half of the season. Seems I let my team fall behind a bit. Neext weeks and the playoffs will be fun though. Very competitive league!

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## Christian Liberty

I was doing good early on but then I got hammered.  Better luck for me next year, I hope.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Looks like Odell Beckham may be this year's Josh Gordon.


Pretty sure I drafted him in the last round and dumped him when the Giants weren't utilizing him.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> I was doing good early on but then I got hammered.  Better luck for me next year, I hope.


The good news is you don't have to wait a year.  Fantasy baseball will start heating up in a couple months.

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## Christian Liberty

> The good news is you don't have to wait a year.  Fantasy baseball will start heating up in a couple months.


My knowledge of baseball is even less than for football...

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Last week of the season... playoff field is almost set. Only 2 teams currently on the outside looking in have a shot to make it - No Money Big Mouths has a reasonable shot, if it wins and J&J or NH Free Staters lose. BrianEllisTrustFund can make it in if it beats the Big Mouths in this week's matchup, J&J loses, and it outscores J&J by more than 15.4 points this week. The six teams sitting at 9-4 or better are all locks for the playoffs; even though 9-4 technically doesn't yet clinch the spots, they all have more than enough season points accumulated to win the tiebreaker against the Big Mouths if they all end up at 9-5.
> 
> Several teams are on a major roll with some really strong scores in the past few games, the playoffs ought to be highly competitive this year. I'm going to need a ton of luck to repeat as champ.


Their fortunes turned for the better and mine went down the toilet.  I really think cutting Odell Beckhem from my team was the fatal flaw.  He literally could've been the difference in me winning another 3-5 games.  Instead of fighting to finish 7-7, I could've had double digit wins.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> My knowledge of baseball is even less than for football...


I bet your football knowledge has increased several fold since playing though.  Baseball is the same, you start off a newbie and before long you acquire new knowledge.

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## Christian Liberty

> I bet your football knowledge has increased several fold since playing though.  Baseball is the same, you start off a newbie and before long you acquire new knowledge.


That's true ,but I actually do occasionally watch football and I don't watch baseball.  I might still give it a shot depending on time committment.  Do you have to set lineups every day?

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## Bastiat's The Law

> That's true ,but I actually do occasionally watch football and I don't watch baseball.  I might still give it a shot depending on time committment.  Do you have to set lineups every day?


There's more too fantasy baseball, but its also more rewarding IMO.  I'll watch my favorite baseball team or highlights on MLB channel, but you don't really need to watch games because you're so in tune with your baseball team you basically know everything that's going on.  And there's certain tweaks/shortcuts you can do if you don't want to micromanage your team.  Like doing your entire lineup for the week and then you can just check it throughout the week if an injury or something comes up, but it's almost on autopilot.

That's what I love about fantasy baseball.  It can be whatever you want it to be.  If you want to dig deep into stats and players you can certainly do that and get hours of enjoyment from that every week (this is what I do).  Or you could opt to just take 15 minutes, all depends what you want to do with it.

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## thoughtomator

> Their fortunes turned for the better and mine went down the toilet.  I really think cutting Odell Beckhem from my team was the fatal flaw.  He literally could've been the difference in me winning another 3-5 games.  Instead of fighting to finish 7-7, I could've had double digit wins.


I remember when you cut him, it was after weeks of him sitting on your bench unplayable due to injury and you needed space to deal with bye weeks. Nobody knew he would develop into a WR1, he hadn't yet played a NFL snap.

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## thoughtomator

Injuries are killing me... can't believe how many players I've lost this season.

Today I get to add Jerrick McKinnon to the IR out-for-season list which already had on it: Brandin Cooks, Eric Berry, Patrick Willis, Justin Durant, Paul Poluszny, and Trumaine McBride on it. That doesn't include guys who didn't go on formal IR: Chandler Jones, Ronnie Hillman, and now it looks like Julius Thomas. Then there's a bunch of others who have sat multiple games with injury: Jimmy Graham, Fred Jackson, Lavonte David... and the crazy part is that not one of these guys was considered a major injury risk.

I'm literally starting only 4 guys that I originally drafted, one of which I had traded away and was dropped by another team after a multiple-game injury, and two more of which are playing through injuries right now. Looking back on this, I have no idea how I made the playoffs at all. The only player on my whole team who I drafted and is still playing and not injured is Matt Stafford!

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## thoughtomator

Looks like the playoff field is set as both the NH Free Staters and Johnson & Johnson claim the final two spots. A valiant last-ditch effort by No Money Big Mouths is going to come up short.

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## Christian Liberty

And FINALLY my team plays well enough to actually win me a game...

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## thoughtomator

Unless my math is wrong, here are the first round matchups

(1) Voluntaryist Victory vs.
(8) Johnson & Johnson

(4) Jesse Benton's Corpse vs.
(5) Longbombs

(3) Philadelphia Martyrs vs.
(6) NH Free Staters 

(2) One Percenters vs.
(7) Ratchet Hoez


Good luck all*!


* offer of good luck does not extend to Ratchet Hoez or anyone else with a playoff matchup against me at any point in the next three weeks

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## thoughtomator

I got cockblocked on a waiver claim by a team that doesn't play any more games this season (ISIS)- I'm a bit baffled as to the reasoning behind submitting that waiver claim. 

If there's a setting to turn off the ability to pull waivers from teams who are out of the playoffs (and thus aren't going to actually get to play the claimed players in any games), it should probably be turned on.

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## muzzled dogg

> I got cockblocked on a waiver claim by a team that doesn't play any more games this season (ISIS)- I'm a bit baffled as to the reasoning behind submitting that waiver claim. 
> 
> If there's a setting to turn off the ability to pull waivers from teams who are out of the playoffs (and thus aren't going to actually get to play the claimed players in any games), it should probably be turned on.


I had a claim too.  I think I have priority over you.  He should have been mine!

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## thoughtomator

Looks like I may be the only one of the top four seeds to survive the first round... I won't be upset to see two of my three perceived-most-dangerous matchups fail to make the cut.

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## thoughtomator

uh oh, looks like I am getting Dezzed out of the championship bracket

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## brandon

Well my season here has come to an end. It's been another fun year. I appreciate how competitive this league can be.

On another note, I'm going into the superbowl for my pay league next week and have a chance to win $300

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## thoughtomator

Game is still down to the wire... all depends on what Jimmy Graham does here

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## thoughtomator

and that's all she wrote for me, folks - all four top seeds down in the first round! A new champ will be crowned this year. Good luck to the winners!

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Injuries are killing me... can't believe how many players I've lost this season.
> 
> Today I get to add Jerrick McKinnon to the IR out-for-season list which already had on it: Brandin Cooks, Eric Berry, Patrick Willis, Justin Durant, Paul Poluszny, and Trumaine McBride on it. That doesn't include guys who didn't go on formal IR: Chandler Jones, Ronnie Hillman, and now it looks like Julius Thomas. Then there's a bunch of others who have sat multiple games with injury: Jimmy Graham, Fred Jackson, Lavonte David... and the crazy part is that not one of these guys was considered a major injury risk.
> 
> I'm literally starting only 4 guys that I originally drafted, one of which I had traded away and was dropped by another team after a multiple-game injury, and two more of which are playing through injuries right now. Looking back on this, I have no idea how I made the playoffs at all. The only player on my whole team who I drafted and is still playing and not injured is Matt Stafford!


I'm still surprised you drafted Stafford.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Well my season here has come to an end. It's been another fun year. I appreciate how competitive this league can be.
> 
> On another note, I'm going into the superbowl for my pay league next week and have a chance to win $300


Good luck with your money league!

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## Bastiat's The Law

> and that's all she wrote for me, folks - all four top seeds down in the first round! A new champ will be crowned this year. Good luck to the winners!


Huge upsets across the board! Wow.

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## thoughtomator

> I'm still surprised you drafted Stafford.


Wasn't the best pick in hindsight, but he didn't sink me either. Injuries were my biggest problem, unforced errors on my part the second biggest. There's always next year!

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## green73

omg trade Rodgers.

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## Bastiat's The Law

> Wasn't the best pick in hindsight, but he didn't sink me either. Injuries were my biggest problem, unforced errors on my part the second biggest. There's always next year!


You up for fantasy baseball this spring?  I based the football league off my fantasy baseball template so there's some similarities (20 teams, 8 playoff teams, H2H, etc).

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## brandon

Congrats Johnson & Johnson!

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## James Madison

Woooo!!!!

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## Bastiat's The Law

Johnson & Johnson's Cinderella season is now complete!

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