# Lifestyles & Discussion > Personal Prosperity >  Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform

## timosman

https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/




> Things are not always as they appear. Often when we solve one problem, we end up unintentionally creating another one thats even worse. The best way to examine the long-term consequences of our decisions is to use second-order thinking.
> 
> Its often easier to identify when people didnt adequately consider the second and subsequent order impacts. For example, consider a country that, wanting to inspire regime change in another country, funds and provides weapons to a group of moderate rebels. Only it turns out that those moderate rebels will become powerful and then go to war with the sponsoring country for decades. Whoops.
> 
> Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before youve asked questions and explored.
> Ray Dalio
> The ability to think through problems to the second, third, and nth orderor what we will call second-order thinking for shortis a powerful tool that supercharges your thinking.
> 
> 
> ...

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## Swordsmyth

It's amazing how many people are simpletons.

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## ATruepatriot

> It's amazing how many people are simpletons.


Curious? are you saying the concept is simpleton? or that most don't apply it past the first level? lol

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## Swordsmyth

> Curious? are you saying the concept is simpleton? or that most don't apply it past the first level? lol


I'm saying that those who only use 1st order thinking are simpletons and that there are an astounding number of them.

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## ATruepatriot

> I'm saying that those who only use 1st order thinking are simpletons and that there are an astounding number of them.


Thank you and I agree. And that is a huge problem. There is always a chain of cause and effect on the way to the true end result. No one ever looks far enough down the road.

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## timosman

> I'm saying that those who only use 1st order thinking are simpletons and that there are an astounding number of them.


Most people work for corporations and corporations do not encourage reasoning beyond first level as it breaks the official narrative and actually can get you fired.

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## Swordsmyth

> Most people work for corporations and corporations do not encourage reasoning beyond first level as it breaks the official narrative and actually can get you fired.


That's because most corporations are run by simpletons, the reasons for that are complex.

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## ATruepatriot

> Most people work for corporations and corporations do not encourage reasoning beyond first level as it breaks the official narrative and actually can get you fired.


Yep, military also. You are not being paid to think or question... You are being paid to just do it without thinking or questions.

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## specsaregood

> I'm saying that those who only use 1st order thinking are simpletons and that there are an astounding number of them.


Hence the popularity of _agile_.  When potential customers indicate they want us to use an agile methodology combine with scrum for planning, I automatically double my quote and tell them so.

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## timosman

> That's because most corporations are run by simpletons, the reasons for that are complex.


This is actually not true. They are able to run quite elaborate schemes. Forcing everybody to act at the simpleton level makes their job much easier and at the same time allows them to hide their incompetence.

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## timosman

> Yep, military also. You are not being paid to think or question... You are being paid to just do it without thinking or questions.


The best thing is when they put a call to their employees to "think like an owner" - https://www.inc.com/tom-searcy/how-t...ke-owners.html -
this is usually used to weed out second level thinkers.

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## tfurrh

> Thank you and I agree. And that is a huge problem. There is always a chain of cause and effect on the way to the true end result. No one ever looks far enough down the road.


There are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on.

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## Ender

> There are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on.



"Two roads diverged in a wood and I - I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference."
  -Robert Frost-

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## pcosmar

> "Two roads diverged in a wood and I - I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference."
>   -Robert Frost-


“Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it.  But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it."

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## The Rebel Poet

> “Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it.  But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it."


"They say, "stay in your lane, boy, lane, boy"
But we go where we want to
They think this thing is a highway, highway
But will they be alive tomorrow?"

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## acptulsa

> It’s often easier to identify when people didn’t adequately consider the second and subsequent order impacts. For example, consider a country that, wanting to inspire regime change in another country, funds and provides weapons to a group of “moderate rebels.” Only it turns out that those moderate rebels will become powerful and then go to war with the sponsoring country for decades. Whoops.


Propaganda for morons.

Thinking we're smarter than the MIC is easy and fun.  Figuring out they don't like wars that actually end, that they have no reason to prefer wars that actually end, is more like work, is more frightening, and makes us examine whether we're complicit in the great evils of the world.

Most people would rather be in a state of smug denial than go through all that.  And the shylls are here to help them do it.




> I'm saying that those who only use 1st order thinking are simpletons and that there are an astounding number of them.


Present company is no exception.

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## Origanalist



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## Origanalist



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## Swordsmyth

> Propaganda for morons.
> 
> Thinking we're smarter than the MIC is easy and fun.  Figuring out they don't like wars that actually end, that they have no reason to prefer wars that actually end, is more like work, is more frightening, and makes us examine whether we're complicit in the great evils of the world.
> 
> Most people would rather be in a state of smug denial than go through all that.  And the shylls are here to help them do it.
> 
> 
> 
> Present company is no exception.


The MIC are not morons but most of the people who support them are.

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## pcosmar

> The MIC are not morons


No. They are a malevolent.

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## tfurrh

Sometimes at a restaurant if I don't get full with my first order, I begin second order thinking.

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## DamianTV

Together, a Bat and a Ball cost a TOTAL of $1.10.  The Bat costs $1 more than the Ball.  How much does the Ball cost?

(this is an example if the difference between what is described as 1st level and 2nd level thinking, and it shows that your initial response is quite often completely wrong)

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## tfurrh

> Together, a Bat and a Ball cost a TOTAL of $1.10.  The Bat costs $1 more than the Ball.  How much does the Ball cost?
> 
> (this is an example if the difference between what is described as 1st level and 2nd level thinking, and it shows that your initial response is quite often completely wrong)


Almost got me. 5 cents

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## DamianTV

> Almost got me. 5 cents


Good job!  The snap judgement is 10 cents, but the actual answer is 5 cents.  Try that exact question on anyone you think needs to start thinking a bit more deeply about anything.

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## Bern

What level thinking does it take to master 4D chess?

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## Cap

> What level thinking does it take to master 4D chess?


That level thinking is so 2016. C'mon man the Trumpsykites are way further down the road than that.

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## loveshiscountry

> Good job!  The snap judgement is 10 cents, but the actual answer is 5 cents.  Try that exact question on anyone you think needs to start thinking a bit more deeply about anything.


The poster didn't show the work. Obviously copying from the Asian seated nearby.
X+(X-1)=1.1
2x-1=1.1
2x=2.1
X=1.05

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## DamianTV

> The poster didn't show the work. Obviously copying from the Asian seated nearby.
> X+(X-1)=1.1
> 2x-1=1.1
> 2x=2.1
> X=1.05


Its more about the psych, but I did the math a bit different.

The first thing that should be an indication that Snap Judgement is wrong is to substitute 10 cents for X, where the bat costs 1 dollar more than the ball, so the Bat itself is $1.00 + $0.10 which is $1.10, but when $1.10 is added to the price of the ball, then you end up with $1.20, which directly contradicts the statement "together, a bat and a ball cost $1.10" so since $1.10 != $1.20, then Deep Thinking needs to kick in.

Here is how I solved it.  We are trying to determine the price of the Ball, which we will call "X".

$1.10 = $(1.00 + X) + X (NOTE: $1.00 + x is the price of the bat)
Simplify X + X as 2X.

$1.10 = $1.00 + 2X

subtract a buck from both sides to isolate X.

$0.10 = 2X

divide both sides by 2 to isolate X.

$0.10 /  2 = 2X / 2

Simplified it reads as:

$0.05 = X

invert

X = $0.05

Check your work by substituting in the value for X (which is where Deep Thinking identifies the problem when X is thought to be $0.10)

$1.10 = ($1.00 + $0.05) + $0.05 (Remember that "($1.00 + $0.05)" represents ONLY the price of the Bat)
The math checks out, so the ball costs 5 cents.

---

Sadly, Ive met so many people who still insist that the price of the ball is 10 cents.

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