# Start Here > Ron Paul Forum >  Newest Intrade numbers for Iowa Straw poll

## Agorism

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

Paul increased a lot today. Bachmann fell about 10% and T-Paw fell 5% or so.




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 53.1%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 33.9%
> ...

----------


## Esoteric

I bought and held a few shares of Ron at 14%   Profit!

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## Agorism

Well you could double your money now if you sell lol.

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## trey4sports

he was trading at 33.9 earlier today. He must be bouncing around a bit

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## Esoteric

> Well you could double your money now if you sell lol.


That would be quite hypocritical!  Ames or BUST!

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## Eric21ND

> I bought and held a few shares of Ron at 14%   Profit!


How are you able to trade?  I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?

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## FriedChicken

I would like to know how this stuff works as well, I wanna get me some RP shares.

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## Unelected

> How are you able to trade?  I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?


You'll have to either send a check or make a wire transfer. Thanks to the Dodd-Frank bill that passed last year, Intrade can't accept debit cards from US banks.

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## Esoteric

> You'll have to either send a check or make a wire transfer. Thanks to the Dodd-Frank bill that passed last year, Intrade can't accept debit cards from US banks.


Yep.  Had to wire funds.  they credited my account the next day, which was surprising - just in time for me to snag some "will Ron Paul announce a presidential bid?" shares in the 70% range

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## Agorism

Paul now at 40%.

Bach not really going down but Paul is getting tpaw's etc.


Bids



> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> Lowest Offer:
> $6.00
> 22 shares
> Buy shares
> Highest Bid:
> $5.80
> 10 shares
> ...


Rand really needs to get to Iowa to bring in as many people as he can. That's why I saw no point in that Fancy farm stuff and other Kentucky campaign events all week.

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## rp08orbust

> Paul now at 40%.
> 
> Bach not really going down but Paul is getting tpaw's etc.


The $4.00 trade seems to have been an outlier.  The current Ask/Bid average for Ron Paul is about $3.20.

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## Article V

Karl Cameron just announced on Fox News that Ron Paul is a surprising front-runner in the Ames Straw Poll.  So I expect the value of his shares to climb.

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## libertybrewcity

A Ron Paul win would be priceless

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## icon124

My Birthday is August 13th...the best gift EVER would be a Ron Paul victory at Ames.  I swear I would remember it forever haha

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## Agorism

We're at 40% Paul vs. 60% Bachmann

We need something to push us over the top here. Right now I'm fearing a narrow loss by a couple hundred votes the way this is going. Good momentum this week obviously though.

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## RonPaul101.com

> How are you able to trade?  I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?


The Ron Paul ETF can only be bought with gold or silver...

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## Agorism

today




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 42.0%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 45.0%
> ...

----------


## trey4sports

i would say those numbers are about right.

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## Agorism

.,,,,


> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 37.6%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 50.0%
> ...

----------


## pauliticalfan

Why the recent uptick?

----------


## sailingaway

> Why the recent uptick?


Ron had 60 last night briefly, it is trades, some aren't very much volume, some more.  It is going to be close, and I hope we win  But the fact that they are calling Ron frontrunner (to raise expectations and lower the impact if he does well) yet having Bachmann on all five Sunday shows shows how they plan to run it even if Ron does win.  He'd be the 'straw poll guy' and she'd be the second place who really matters, as Huckabee was 2d.... 

Now I'm hoping Ron gets first and TPaw gets second.  Wonder what they'll talk about on Sunday, then?

----------


## Agorism

,,




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 30.0%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> *
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 57.5%*
> ...

----------


## KramerDSP

Drudge bump did this recent uptick. Or people know something and are saying "holy f**k".

Now I'm hoping for 5,000+ votes and considerable distance as the outright winner.

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## Jandrsn21

Paul 57.5% vs Bachmann 30%

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## Agorism

For the last two days Bachmann does well in the morning, and Paul does better in the afternoon and the later in the evening it gets.

Two days isn't really much of a trend though but more of a coincidence. 

Who knows Bachmann might bump back up tomorrow morning.

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## beerista

> For the last two days Bachmann does well in the morning, and *Paul does better in the afternoon and the later in the evening it gets.
> *
> Two days isn't really much of a trend though but more of a coincidence. 
> 
> Who knows Bachmann might bump back up tomorrow morning.


Paul voters have jobs?

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## trey4sports

@ 57.5% at 9:29 CST 

He is also @ 6.1% to be GOP nominee which is up from 4.5% a couple days ago.

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## trey4sports

9:02 am cst hes hovering @ 55% to win today and he is up to 6.8% to get the nomination.

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## JTforRP

Any predictions on what will happen to Ron's nomination chances on InTrade if he wins today?

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## Zarn Solen

He might break 10%

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## trey4sports

> Any predictions on what will happen to Ron's nomination chances on InTrade if he wins today?





> He might break 10%



I would agree that we would probably break 10%, however, what will be interesting is to see how winning (hopefully) affects our chances of winning the Iowa Caucus. I think we will still get no respect nationally but if we win in Iowa then we will get the respect we deserve (which will come in the form of massive attacks).

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## Agorism

Intrade numbers have no real change this morning.


11:30 AM central time 08/13/2011



> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 30.8%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 62.1%
> ...

----------


## libertybrewcity

are intrade numbers usually correct?

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## trey4sports

> are intrade numbers usually correct?


When there is high volume. Low volume markets are easily manipulable

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## sailingaway

> I would agree that we would probably break 10%, however, what will be interesting is to see how winning (hopefully) affects our chances of winning the Iowa Caucus. I think we will still get no respect nationally but if we win in Iowa then we will get the respect we deserve (which will come in the form of massive attacks).


Not sure quite that high.  Bachmann was only at 6% or 7% when it was pretty much assumed she'd win.  But he's already gone up, some.

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## Esoteric

Glad I got my shares of Ron Paul at 14%!  Hope those cash in for me!  Ill be reporting live shortly!

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## wstrucke

Can anyone explain... what is InTrade?  It looks like gambling.

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## Bama Boy

I still think Bachmann is a safer bet.

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## trey4sports

> Can anyone explain... what is InTrade?  It looks like gambling.


betting on political futures

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## trey4sports

> Glad I got my shares of Ron Paul at 14%!  Hope those cash in for me!  Ill be reporting live shortly!


sent pm, i have a question for ya.

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## Agorism

Tightens a bit

13:30 central time 08/13/11




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 39.9%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 51.0%
> ...

----------


## Agorism

13:35

...




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 49.7%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 35.1%
> ...

----------


## sailingaway

Yeah, I've been hearing she just sold her 4000th ticket and the lines for her tent with Huck there are huge - right when Ron is speaking. So much for his ability to sway undecideds, if they go see Huck instead.  And Huck was saying it was a joke if Ron won, essentially.  That man was polling so much worse than Ron when he came in 2d....

Problem is, now Drudge put Ron up, if he doesn't win instead of second being the huge bump it should be, it will be the opposite per the media.

----------


## erowe1

> Yeah, I've been hearing she just sold her 4000th ticket and the lines for her tent with Huck there are huge - right when Ron is speaking. So much for his ability to sway undecideds, if they go see Huck instead.  And Huck was saying it was a joke if Ron won, essentially.  That man was polling so much worse than Ron when he came in 2d....
> 
> Problem is, now Drudge put Ron up, if he doesn't win instead of second being the huge bump it should be, it will be the opposite per the media.


I'm guessing a lot of the people who want to vote for a write-in would rather buy their tickets cheap from her than pay full price.

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## Agorism

It will be close at this point. Huck is probably helping her. Paul gave dynamite speech though, and I hope people saw it.

13:45 central 8/13/11




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 49.7%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 48.8%
> ...

----------


## pauliticalfan

Yikes, super close.

----------


## sailingaway

She's up to 50 now in intrade.  But I'm not sure the line now to see the band and Travis all voted for her.  But 4000 tickets is a ton, if true.

But it's going up and down, she just went down to 49 again.




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> 
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 49.7%
> CHANCE
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> 
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> ...

----------


## Restore-America-NOW

> She's up to 50 now in intrade.  But I'm not sure the line now to see the band and Travis all voted for her.  But 4000 tickets is a ton, if true.


It is. Keep in mind the only time there were more than one candidates with over 4000 votes was in 1999, but I did also hear that Ron sold 4700 so far. Not sure if any of it is true, but we will know by 7:00 tonight... 

I'm getting nervous

----------


## BUSHLIED

Ron can win this, he always does better than we think...don't worry, he'll be fine. Voting stops at 4pm so I guess two more hours to go. Romney got over 4,000 and Bush got over 4,000. So it is not like 4,000 is an anomaly.

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## Agorism

Bouncing around




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 42.2%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 48.8%
> ...

----------


## sailingaway

> It is. Keep in mind the only time there were more than one candidates with over 4000 votes was in 1999, but I did also hear that Ron sold 4700 so far. Not sure if any of it is true, but we will know by 7:00 tonight... 
> 
> I'm getting nervous


I'm pretty sure that is NOT true about Ron per a post quoting Jesse Benton yesterday , unless that is new info from today, but that is the number that was circulating yesterday.

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## samsung1

If the campaign sold 4700 then hopefully he could pick up a few hundred after the speech

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## sailingaway

> Ron can win this, he always does better than we think...don't worry, he'll be fine. Voting stops at 4pm so I guess two more hours to go. Romney got over 4,000 and Bush got over 4,000. So it is not like 4,000 is an anomaly.


Yeah, it pretty much is.  Bush and Romney were not grass root candidates.  The point is Huckabee, who got much less and came in second, is the one who won the caucus.

----------


## sailingaway

> If the campaign sold 4700 then hopefully he could pick up a few hundred after the speech


They didn't. I'm thinking a troll planted that number so people would relax.

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## RonPaulFanInGA

> I'm pretty sure that is NOT true about Ron per a post quoting Jesse Benton yesterday , unless that is new info from today, but that is the number that was circulating yesterday.


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61263.html

_Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton said they bought 2,750 tickets from the state party, but Paul rivals contend the number is higher than that._

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## Agorism

Down to the wire!


14:05 Central 8/13/11





> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 51.9%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 55.0%
> ...

----------


## Bama Boy

Randy Travis is a huge draw.  I mean he could sell out a 3,000 concert hall in Iowa if he wanted.  So I would not be surprised if Bachmann wins big based on that fact alone.  No shame in second place for RP.

----------


## sailingaway

Yeah, now they are just plain screwy!!!

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## sailingaway

> Randy Travis is a huge draw.  I mean he could sell out a 3,000 concert hall in Iowa if he wanted.  So I would not be surprised if Bachmann wins big based on that fact alone.  No shame in second place for RP.


Yeah, but not the bump either after being touted as a poss winner.  But it IS a good result to get 2.  #2 last time won the Iowa caucus.

----------


## Agorism

Making be feel slightly better now.

14:18 central 8/13/11




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 44.0%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 55.0%
> ...

----------


## trey4sports

> Yeah, it pretty much is.  Bush and Romney were not grass root candidates.  The point is Huckabee, who got much less and came in second, is the one who won the caucus.


C'mon you know the media dynamic is a lot different with Huckabee than Paul.

----------


## samsung1

Bachmann is down to 40 now

----------


## Inkblots

Good heavens, Bachmann is crashing after that awful speech she gave.

Bachmann: 43%
Paul: 56%

----------


## Patrick Henry

Holy smokes!

Her speech was that bad huh? I turned the propaganda box off after the good Dr. spoke.




> Good heavens, Bachmann is crashing after that awful speech she gave.
> 
> Bachmann: 43%
> Paul: 56%

----------


## wormyguy

T-Paw down to 1%

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## samsung1

Bachmann now at 44 ,Paul holding at 48

----------


## Matthew Zak

> Bachmann now at 44 ,Paul holding at 48


What are these numbers? Where are they coming from?

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## willwash

Intrade's estimated probabilitty of a given candidate winning the straw poll



> What are these numbers? Where are they coming from?

----------


## Agorism

Intrade- it's a gambling on elections basically.



15:00

Bachmann jumps a bit.



> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 45.0%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 41.0%
> ...

----------


## Warrior_of_Freedom

The results come in at 5pm EST? or is that when the polls close?

----------


## samsung1

Intrade.net and intrade.com

----------


## Restore-America-NOW

> The results come in at 5pm EST? or is that when the polls close?


More likely around 7-7:30pm EST. Voting closes at 4:00 central and will be announced around 6.

----------


## RonPaulFanInGA

> What are these numbers? Where are they coming from?


The title of the thread might be a vital clue, Scooby.

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## trey4sports

paul seems to be dropping. Down to 41% vs Bachmanns 45%

----------


## BrunswickGuy

> paul seems to be dropping. Down to 41% vs Bachmanns 45%


The "traders" will have sold Paul at 48 and bought Bachmann to make more of a profit. I predict it's going to flip-flop heavily until 20 mins before the results are announced.

----------


## Agorism

People who already voted....I wonder if it's worth standing in Bachmann's line to clog that place up.

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## sailingaway

> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> 
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 46.0%
> CHANCE
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> 
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> ...

----------


## trey4sports

Bachmann up to 50% Paul still at 41

----------


## smartguy911

Bachman at 54.5% now

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## Agorism

15:24




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 60.9%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 37.3%
> ...

----------


## samsung1

I guess there's a reason she booked all the Sunday shows.

----------


## RonPaulCult

Bachman is surging up to 60%   

Do people know something we don't?

----------


## smartguy911

wowzer 60.9% for Bachman

----------


## erowe1

> Do people know something we don't?


Of course some people do. That's what makes something like Intrade so interesting.

----------


## RonPaulFever

Bachmann camp is claiming 6,000+ votes.

----------


## RonPaulCult

Maybe it's because this just got posted on Drudge:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmi...eaks_6000.html

----------


## erowe1

> Maybe it's because this just got posted on Drudge:
> 
> http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmi...eaks_6000.html


What's Bachmann charging for her tickets?

----------


## samsung1

Hopefully Romney and perry told their people to vote for ron paul

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## trey4sports

were down to under 30%....

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## kah13176

> People who already voted....I wonder if it's worth standing in Bachmann's line to clog that place up.


LOL.  Do it!

----------


## Agorism

15:29




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 60.9%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 27.5%
> ...

----------


## JTforRP

Remaining cautiously optimistic. Every ticket doesn't translate to a vote, right? And didn't Cockmann have some shady rules about jumping through hoops to participate in her tent activities? A Ron Paul ticket, to me, means a Ron Paul vote. There aren't many casual Ron Paul fans. And every shot of Ames today showed Paul supporters EASILY outnumbering everyone else. I'm not buying this Politico stuff until it's official.

----------


## RonPaulCult

Buy low sell high?  These are some cheap Ron Paul shares

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## Agorism

Or people have inside information, which these betting markets tend to have.

----------


## erowe1

> Buy low sell high?  These are some cheap Ron Paul shares


It is tempting.

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## erowe1

> Or people have inside information, which these betting markets tend to have.


Based on the timing, I'm guessing it was that 6,000 tickets article that did it.

----------


## samsung1

Paul drops to 25 looks like Bachmann is gonna take it

----------


## RonPaulCult

> Based on the timing, I'm guessing it was that 6,000 tickets article that did it.


I want to be optimistic, but it would seem unlikely that the Bachmann campaign would say such a thing if it weren't true.  Still, giving out tickets doesn't equal showing up and voting for her.

----------


## RonPaulRules

Bachmann bribed for all her votes.

----------


## erowe1

> I want to be optimistic, but it would seem unlikely that the Bachmann campaign would say such a thing if it weren't true.


I'm sure it is true.

Is she really giving them out for free? If so, then I'd say that it's not just possible that she'll get fewer votes than that, it's absolutely certain.

----------


## sailingaway

There was a point for Rand. Fancy Farm is as important to Kentucky as the straw poll is to Iowa.  He needed to be there.

We just didnt know how much Randy Travis would bring in.  Bachmann's ads didn't even show her on them, just the band.

Ron is going to beat historic firsts.

And Ron was trending nationwide, and has been in top 20 of google ever since the debate.  This is still huge for us.

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## TheTyke

Sounds like a great opportunity to make money.

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## samsung1

Bachmann shares now at 79

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## Aratus

ron paul wins the ames straw poll. mark my words.

its fifteen minutes until the voting closes in iowa.

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## RonPaulCult

> ron paul wins the ames straw poll. mark my words.
> 
> its fifteen minutes until the voting closes in iowa.


And you base this on.............?

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## FreedomProsperityPeace

Bah. Most of these traders are working off the same info we are.

----------


## samsung1

> ron paul wins the ames straw poll. mark my words.
> 
> its fifteen minutes until the voting closes in iowa.


Did extra buses just arive with 1k votes?

----------


## TRIGRHAPPY

> I'm sure it is true.
> 
> Is she really giving them out for free? If so, then I'd say that it's not just possible that she'll get fewer votes than that, it's absolutely certain.


The Ron Paul folks should have just went to her tent to get free tickets to vote for Dr Paul with.  Knowing how savvy Ron Paul's folks tend to be, I would be surprised if this did not happen.

----------


## erowe1

> Bah. Most of these traders are working off the same info we are.


That's what it looks like to me too.

And seriously, does anybody know if she's really giving out free tickets? If she is, that makes a big difference.

----------


## erowe1

> The Ron Paul folks should have just went to her tent to get free tickets to vote for Dr Paul with.  Knowing how savvy Ron Paul's folks tend to be, I would be surprised if this did not happen.


For all we know they did exactly that. If she gave them out for free then some people definitely did that. Not just RP supporters, but especially people who want to write in Perry or Romney, whose campaigns aren't giving out discounted tickets at all. Those voters aren't going to pay $30 if they can get tickets for free.

----------


## RonPaulCult

Hoping to see something like this in the next few hours:

----------


## Aratus

i'll be back in this thread here in about 
three or five hours after the tally is official.
yes, intrade here was tight earlier today and
judging by multiple sources, ron paul has more
actual votes in the poll despite randy travis
drawing people towards ms. bachmann's tent!

----------


## Aratus

the poll closes in less than 10 minutes.
folks who are already in line will be voting
slightly after the hour out in ames, iowa.

----------


## sailingaway

Intrade is way up for Bachmann now.

Unless some are taking her tickets and either not voting or voting for someone else...

----------


## Agorism

Markets really like Bachmann to win.
1357




> Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 76.0%
> CHANCE
> Predict
> 
> Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
> Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
> 20.0%
> ...

----------


## smartguy911

I am happy as long we are in top 3.  2nd place would be nice

----------


## erowe1

> Unless some are taking her tickets and either not voting or voting for someone else...


Is she giving them out free?

If so, there's no unless about it, it's a guarantee that some people are doing that. The only question would be how many,

----------


## sailingaway

Yeah, she's giving them free but the flip side to that is MOST people are honest and a lot will vote when otherwise they would have just walked around, just because they want to see Randy Travis  Usually only a fraction of those there vote.

----------


## erowe1

> MOST people are honest


Is she only giving them to people who promise to vote for her?

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## Aratus

at 4 p.m CENTRAL, the ACTUAL ames straw poll ended its voting. intrade is not iowa!!! its way close.
IMHO dr. ron paul is either solidly in first place or a tenth of a percent behind  ms. michele bachmann.

----------


## RonPaulCult

Ron Paul is inching up from his lows

----------


## Aratus

i think he just won this one!
the final few votes from the
people who were in line may
be going his way. from this
point onwards, intrade makes
guesses on the votes already cast.
there is a rough two hour lag for
the results. i think ron paul won!

----------


## samsung1

Still praying that Ron Paul pulls this out.

----------


## trey4sports

I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd,

----------


## KingRobbStark

> i think he just won this one!
> the final few votes from the
> people who were in line may
> be going his way. from this
> point onwards, intrade makes
> guesses on the votes already cast.
> there is a rough two hour lag for
> the results. i think ron paul won!


I will love you forever if what you say is right.

----------


## erowe1

> i think he just won this one!
> the final few votes from the
> people who were in line may
> be going his way. from this
> point onwards, intrade makes
> guesses on the votes already cast.
> there is a rough two hour lag for
> the results. i think ron paul won!


I've always wondered, am I supposed scan your posts when I read them?

----------


## Billay

Theres no difference between 2nd and last place.

----------


## trey4sports

> I've always wondered, am I supposed scan your posts when I read them?



I believe his first language is not English (no offense to Aratus)

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## erowe1

> Theres no difference between 2nd and last place.


Let's not get overly dramatic here.

There's a big difference between first and second. But it's not the end of the race either way.

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## trey4sports

> Theres no difference between 2nd and last place.


I agree there is a huge difference for us between 1st and 2nd but we will just have to accept what we get.

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## pauliticalfan

Mike Huckabee got 2nd place last time and won the Iowa caucus. Just keep that in mind.

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## Billay

> Let's not get overly dramatic here.
> 
> There's a big difference between first and second. But it's not the end of the race either way.


The end? No but a first place finish would be huge for momentum.

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## sailingaway

> I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd, I am happy with 2nd,


me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too me too

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## pauliticalfan

Michele Bachmann at 80%.

All I can say is that I hope a lot of people lose a lot of money on Intrade tonight.

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## RonPaulCult

Anybody have any intrade experience?  How often is it wrong?

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## samsung1

Hopefully Romney paid for several thousand of his supporters to vote for ron paul. He knows a bachmann victory woul be a threat to him

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## samsung1

According to this, intrade is about 75% accurate

http://www.jimkarpen.com/intrade.html

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## Agorism

When it swings to one side heavily, it's more likely to be accurate when it's close obviously.

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## Fermli

> Michele Bachmann at 80%.
> 
> All I can say is that I hope a lot of people lose a lot of money on Intrade tonight.


the bets aren't placed on the outcome of the event.

You simply buy/sell shares until there are no more people betting.

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## Aratus

> I believe his first language is not English (no offense to Aratus)


wrong. 

she.

net = turing test

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## Aratus

i think i am gonzo. sometimes. maybe. if.

i am not mr. hunter thompson. standards.

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## erowe1

> wrong. 
> 
> she.
> 
> net = turing test


What are you saying? You're a female robot?

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## erowe1

I want Aratus and Uncle Emanuel Watkins to write a book together some time.

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## Aratus

The title being "Parson Brownlow, Andrew Johnson and Our Bill of Rights" mayhap?

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## TRIGRHAPPY

> Anybody have any intrade experience?  How often is it wrong?


It's track record is very good and extremely impressive.  With that said, the media distortion of Ron Paul is rather unique and certainly a factor.

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## Aratus

in a posting someone said 152 seperated MB's first place from Ron's second!! (news has confirmed!)
if the major intraders ran with insider info, concerning the 17,ooo total votes thusly cast... yikes!
we took it to almost a photo finish!!! it was so darn close. i kept on thinking ron paul was ahead.

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