# News & Current Events > U.S. Political News >  Thank you President Trump. The economy just keeps choogling along...

## phill4paul

Lowest unemployment rate since man first walked on the moon!
  Lowest unemployment for women since 1953!
  Lowest unemployment rate for those without a Bachelors degree in 19 yrs!
  Hispanic unemployment the lowest since 1973!
  Record low unemployment for Asians!
  Lowest unemployment for Irag and Afghanistan Vets, ever!
  Median income rises 3.2% to $27.77/hr!

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...MThbEUeszZT9Hx

  But, wait, there's moar.....

   U.S. Steel, after losing $1.5 billion in 2015 under Obama, is reinvesting it's profits since President Trump's steel tariffs.
To the tune of $1.1 billion.

Nucor Corp., the countrys largest steelmaker and an mini-mill producer, announced a new $1.4 billion mill in the Midwest to produce 1.2 million tons each year.

Steel Dynamics, a producer based in Fort Wayne, Ind., plans to build a $1.8 billion mill with an electric arc furnace in the Southwest.

JSW USA is spending $1 billion to revive a mill in Texas and restart a former Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel mill in Mingo Junction, Ohio.

Those jobs Obama said were never coming back? Well, they are.

Thank you Mr. President!!

https://www.post-gazette.com/busines...xnOe_DfN9fn5nE

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## Swordsmyth

> Lowest unemployment rate since man first walked on the moon!
>   Lowest unemployment for women since 1953!
>   Lowest unemployment rate for those without a Bachelors degree in 19 yrs!
>   Hispanic unemployment the lowest since 1973!
>   Record low unemployment for Asians!
>   Lowest unemployment for Irag and Afghanistan Vets, ever!
>   Median income rises 3.2% to $27.77/hr!
> 
> https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...MThbEUeszZT9Hx
> ...


Orange Men BAD!

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## Anti Federalist

> Lowest unemployment rate since man first walked on the moon!
>   Lowest unemployment for women since 1953!
>   Lowest unemployment rate for those without a Bachelors degree in 19 yrs!
>   Hispanic unemployment the lowest since 1973!
>   Record low unemployment for Asians!
>   Lowest unemployment for Irag and Afghanistan Vets, ever!
>   Median income rises 3.2% to $27.77/hr!
> 
> https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...MThbEUeszZT9Hx
> ...

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## Zippyjuan

Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?
Jobs (non-farm payroll) went from a low of 130 million to 145 million- 15 million jobs added?

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## Swordsmyth

> 





> Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?


Speak of the NPC and he appears.

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## phill4paul

> 


  Lol. That's pretty much what I'm getting for posting this on FascistBook. All the "Never Trumpers" are telling me there will be a recession, like, Monday, and it will all come tumbling down. Even though they have been telling me that since his engineering of the economic upswing since he took office. Once you open up the workforce, and those that formerly received a check for doing nothing, and now receive a check for working, and find government TAKES from them, you create...conservatives.
  The Fed Reserve is holding it's hand right now. There are no signals of inflation. They are neither upping the ante or folding. 
  If this can continue into 2020 there will be a second term.

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## phill4paul

> Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?
> Jobs (non-farm payroll) went from a low of 130 million to 145 million- 15 million jobs added?


   "Some jobs aren't coming back."

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## Swordsmyth

> Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?
> Jobs (non-farm payroll) went from a low of 130 million to 145 million- 15 million jobs added?


Any economic growth that actually took place and was not smoke and mirrors was in spite of his anti-economic policies.

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## tfurrh

If there's one thing I know about the economy, it's that the president (R or D) is 100% responsible. I bet if the presidency didn't have those other branches, much less the private sector, the economic numbers posted would be off the charts!

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## enhanced_deficit

Bold leadership leveraging his succesful business experience, big deficit spending paying dividends since raising debt limit. His bold managment of his businesses had also created jobs boom during early years of debt spending boost, hopefully national creditorss won't create the fuss like his business creditors did and allow critics to call it a 'sugar high' boom down the road.

Thanks are also due to  Deep State for not allowing Mueller to stop MAGA POTUS from continuing with America-First agenda

Thank You Deep State !


Dems in the past had claimed that Wall Street and economy does better under Dems (Wall St bankers tend to have close ties to Dems) but in this case Dems can't take credit as Trump these days identifies as a Republican:

 
                                                                                                                                                 President Clinton created more jobs than any other administration

  In 1993, President Clinton and Vice President Gore launched their economic strategy:  (1) establishing   fiscal discipline, eliminating the budget deficit, keeping interest rates low, and spurring private-sector   investment; (2) investing in people through education, training, science, and research; and (3) opening foreign   markets so American workers can compete abroad.  After eight years, the results of President Clinton's economic   leadership are clear.  Record budget deficits have become record surpluses, 22 million new jobs have been   created, unemployment and core inflation are at their lowest levels in more than 30 years, and America is in the   midst of the longest economic expansion in our history. 

*President Clinton's Record on the Economy:* 


 *Strong Economic Growth:* Since President Clinton and Vice President Gore took office, economic growth has     averaged 4.0 percent per year, compared to average growth of 2.8 percent during the Reagan-Bush years.      The economy has grown for 116 consecutive months, the most in history. 

https://clintonwhitehouse5.archives....tyears-03.html







Related

*                                                                                                                                                                                             Poll:                                                                                                                              Do you believe economic data is manipulated for political agenda?*


19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’




> Not so long ago, however, Trump's view of the monthly jobs  report, which  comes courtesy of the nonpartisan federal Bureau of Labor  Statistics,  was markedly different. As recently as December, he described the report as “totally fiction.”




*No proof that government  economic stats are fakenews , "phony" or a "hoax"*

Trump once said government economic stats were ‘phony.’ Democrats increasingly agree.
For years some Republicans have been suspicious that official government statistics are fake. Then-presidential candidate Donald Trump fanned these flames, calling the low unemployment rate under Barack Obama “phony” and a “hoax.”

Interestingly, YouGov also asked a related question, about whether  government statistics were “reliable and accurate.” When phrased this  way, Democrats today place more faith in the data than Republicans do.  Perhaps this “reliable and accurate” phrasing plays more to respondents’  perceptions of government competence and precision, rather  than suspicions that the feds are deliberately manipulating the numbers  for political gain.




* Thank You Big Government...  17,617,000 Americans Work for Government!**The US economy is coming down from a sugar high. How bad will the headache be?*

March 28, 2019



Revisions  to fourth-quarter GDP announced today show the US economy grew by only  2.2% in the quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. That  revision pulled down the year-over-year rate, too. It now turns out that  the US economy expanded only 2.9% in 2018.


https://qz.com/1583024/us-gdp-growth...igh-wears-off/




*How Trump has made both the trade and budget deficits worse*

               Published: Mar 7, 2019
 
Bloomberg News                            
More is coming in than going out, according to the latest trade data. 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-trump-has-made-both-the-trade-and-budget-deficits-worse-2019-03-06









Jan 18, 2019
*Trump's Big "Win": The Largest Budget Deficit With A Strong Economy*

*Trump will break the record*
  When you take into account how the economy is doing it shows that  President Trump’s budget deficits as a percentage of GDP will exceed any  other President’s during a time of economic expansion. From the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget or CFRB, the chart’s blue line shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP.  At the projected 4.6% for fiscal 2019 it will the be largest in a non-recession year and is expected to stay above this level in the future.
And the red line shows that it will only be worse  if the 2017 tax cuts that are scheduled to expire for individuals and  the increased 2018 discretionary spending caps are extended.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...strong-economy

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## Zippyjuan

> "Some jobs aren't coming back."


That $billion investment will be replacing a couple of other facilities and be more automated- requiring fewer workers once the upgrade is complete.  

https://www.industryweek.com/leaders...n-valley-works




> Described by the company as state-of-the-art technology, the endless casting and rolling technology combines thin slab casting and hot rolled band production into one continuous process. *The new facility will replace existing traditional slab caster and hot strip mill facilities at the Mon Valley Works.*
> 
> U.S. Steel said the technology upgrade would, among other benefits, increase the steelmaker's ability to serve new markets and improve environmental performance. Mon Valley Works also would become the primary source for the substrate for production of U.S. Steel's advanced high strength steel.* The new investment will not increase the company's steelmaking capacity*.

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## Anti Federalist

> "Some jobs aren't coming back."

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## Anti Globalist

He keeps this up he'll win his reelection easily.

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## timosman

> Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?
> Jobs (non-farm payroll) went from a low of 130 million to 145 million- 15 million jobs added?

----------


## Swordsmyth

*Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama*

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## Zippyjuan

How is coal doing?  https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyi.../#35f219c36654




> U.S. coal consumption fell 4% in 2018 to its lowest point in 39 years due to accelerating coal plant closures and reduced coal plant utilization. The electric power sector represented 93% of total U.S. coal consumption from 2007 to 2018, but over that period 68 GW of coal-fired generation (out of 313 GW in 2007) retired, capped by 13 GW of retirements in 2018.
> 
> As a result, U.S. coal production – and the mining jobs depending on it – declined from 1,145 million tons in 2007 to 756 million tons in 2018. The production downswing isn’t going away: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports* U.S. production is down 8.4% so far in 2019,* and forecasts output will fall 72 million tons in 2019 and 44 million tons in 2020.
> 
> Coal mining’s one bright spot has been exports, which increased since Trump took office on increased overseas demand, buoying employment. But EIA reports *exports began falling in the second half of 2018 and forecasts exports will fall 8% in 2019* as international prices remain well below the mark required for U.S. coal to be competitive globally.


Coal employs about 50,000.  A small industry.  It used to have 89,000 jobs.  Here too, automation has reduced the number of workers needed.

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## Swordsmyth

> 


Which one is zippy?

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## Zippyjuan

> *Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama*


According to the St Louis Fed figures, manufacturing job bottomed out at 11.5 million during the Great Recession.  By the time Obama left office, there were 12.4 million- an increase of 900,000 jobs. As of the latest figures, there are 12.8 million- an increase of 400,000 jobs.   Who had more added under their watch? (In 1979, there were 19.5 million manufacturing jobs in the US). 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

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## tfurrh

> *Political Gridlock Will Be Good For Business*
> 
> The economy will do well with government control divided between Democrats and Republicans. I didn’t always believe this, but a decade ago I was persuaded by the late economist William A. Niskanen. “Our federal government may work better (well, less badly) when at least one house of Congress is controlled by the opposing party,” he wrote. “Divided government is, curiously, less divisive. It’s also cheaper. The basic reason for this is simple: When one party proposes drastic or foolish measures, the other party can obstruct them. The United States prospers most when excesses are curbed, and, if the numbers from the past 50 years are any indication, divided government is what curbs them.”


http://www.forbes.com/sites/billcone...d-for-business

In all seriousness name me 1 good reason why Trump gets the thanks for this?

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## Swordsmyth

> According to the St Louis Fed figures, manufacturing job bottomed out at 11.5 million during the Great Recession.  By the time Obama left office, there were 12.4 million- an increase of 900,000 jobs. As of the latest figures, there are 12.8 million- an increase of 400,000 jobs.   Who had more added under their watch? 
> 
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP


Trump hasn't been in office as long but the rate is much better already.

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## Swordsmyth

> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...-business/amp/
> 
> In all seriousness name me 1 good reason why Trump gets the thanks for this?


Deregulation and tax cuts.

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## phill4paul

> That $billion investment will be replacing a couple of other facilities and be more automated- requiring fewer workers once the upgrade is complete.  
> 
> https://www.industryweek.com/leaders...n-valley-works


  And the coke coal, limestone, and iron ore workers? The increased job in these industries, the spending of wages in these local communities and the jobs created by it?  Lol. Zip, everything is a news article and it's "bolding" without understanding that business is not a microcosm.

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## Zippyjuan

> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...-business/amp/
> 
> In all seriousness name me 1 good reason why Trump gets the thanks for this?


Lucky timing mostly. Presidents get both too much credit and too much blame for what the economy does.  He came along when the economy was already chugging along.  He just has to not screw it up like with his trade wars.

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## TheTexan

> If there's one thing I know about the economy, it's that the president (R or D) is 100% responsible. I bet if the presidency didn't have those other branches, much less the private sector, the economic numbers posted would be off the charts!


This is true.  If the economy moves up or down, it's almost 100% attributable to the actions of the President.

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## Zippyjuan

> And the coke coal, limestone, and iron ore workers? Lol. Zip, everything is a news article and it's "bolding" without understanding that business is not a micro-cosm.


The article says they will not be increasing their maximum output so the impact on industries they get their inputs from will be zero.  It will create more jobs during the construction period for those workers.

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## Swordsmyth

> http://www.forbes.com/sites/billcone...d-for-business
> 
> In all seriousness name me 1 good reason why Trump gets the thanks for this?





> Deregulation and tax cuts.


And defensive tariffs that stop foreign economic predators.

None of which are helped by divided government.

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## TheTexan

> Deregulation and tax cuts.


Yes, the .5% tax cut that he did I think really is responsible for at least 80% of these improvements.

Don't forget also the tariffs which are huge too

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## specsaregood

> How is coal doing?  https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyi.../#35f219c36654


Fracking and Shale oil have done more to hurt the coal industry than any of the wind and solar $#@! that article talks about.  And yet natural gas and shale oil not mentioned even once in that article and the growth of those industries is what has made coal not price competitive and closed down coal miners.    With that said, the coal company in my portfolio sold more last year than any year before (increasing overseas exports is good for our economy) and is minting cash; but thinking of the future by expanding their assets into gas and oil.

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## phill4paul

> The article says they will not be increasing their maximum output so the impact on industries they get their inputs from will be zero.  It will create more jobs during the construction period for those workers.


Cite.

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## tfurrh

> And defensive tariffs that stop foreign economic predators.
> 
> None of which are helped by divided government.


If you think tariffs help the economy you're gonna love a Sanders presidency.

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## timosman

> In all seriousness name me 1 good reason why Trump gets the thanks for this?


Can do attitude. Everybody wants to be on the winning team. Obama was such a whiner and a drag.

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## Swordsmyth

> If you think tariffs help the economy you're gonna love a Sanders presidency.


Defensive tariffs do and I'd hate a Sanders presidency.

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## tfurrh

> Defensive tariffs do


Source? (From a laissez faire/Austrian/classical viewpoint (this is RPF))

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## Swordsmyth

> Source? (From a laissez faire/Austrian/classical viewpoint (this is RPF))


Hostile foreign government intervention in the marketplace is as bad or worse than domestic government interference, defensive tariffs cancel it out.

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## specsaregood

> Source? (From a laissez faire/Austrian/classical viewpoint (this is RPF))


Yes, lets limit the sources allowed input; because we like living in an echo chamber.

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## tfurrh

> Yes, lets limit the sources allowed input; because we like living in an echo chamber.


I wasn't limiting them because I like an echo chamber. I was qualifying because I knew Swordboy would link up some crap from some wannabe.

When I was in school I can remember my teacher telling us to cite anything we wanted, and use anything as a source. She knew that we'd have crappy work, but at least we'd look like idiots.

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## oyarde

> Do you also give credit to Obama for the economic improvement while he was president?  It fell by more than half- a high of ten percent to 4.7% when he left office?   
> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?
> Jobs (non-farm payroll) went from a low of 130 million to 145 million- 15 million jobs added?


Dont forget the food stamp roll increases and fines of the poor who could not afford health insurance .

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## oyarde

> Fracking and Shale oil have done more to hurt the coal industry than any of the wind and solar $#@! that article talks about.  And yet natural gas and shale oil not mentioned even once in that article and the growth of those industries is what has made coal not price competitive and closed down coal miners.    With that said, the coal company in my portfolio sold more last year than any year before (increasing overseas exports is good for our economy) and is minting cash; but thinking of the future by expanding their assets into gas and oil.


Nat gas was a pretty good money maker for me when I still fooled around in stocks . And in the old days heating oil.

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## Swordsmyth

> I wasn't limiting them because I like an echo chamber. I was qualifying because I knew Swordboy would link up some crap from some wannabe.
> 
> When I was in school I can remember my teacher telling us to cite anything we wanted, and use anything as a source. She knew that we'd have crappy work, but at least we'd look like idiots.


I have no need to link to anyone, facts and logic are on my side.

It seems your teacher never taught you enough to think for yourself, but since her goal was to let you look like an idiot I guess she didn't see a need to.

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## Schifference

> How is coal doing?  https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyi.../#35f219c36654
> 
> 
> 
> Coal employs about 50,000.  A small industry.  It used to have 89,000 jobs.  Here too, automation has reduced the number of workers needed.


It is possible that the problem with coal is not Trump but cheap oil and gas. A few years ago I heated my house exclusively with coal because of the high price of oil. The last few years oil has come way down and coal has remained the same. Oil is cheaper and no work involved.

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## Firestarter

Thank you Trump, for following the wonderful example of Obama and Bush Jr!
Slashing the taxes for big corporations and for the wealthy. Will Trump even achieve the nearly impossible? Again doubling the US national debt? The banksters are already counting their interests...

During Trumps first 2 years in office, US federal government deficits have already driven the national debt up by $3 trillion  from $19.5 trillion to $22.5 trillion. That´s even faster than his predecessors, George Bush and Barack Obama.
The 2018 Trump tax cuts have reduced US government revenues by about $500 billion in 2018; add another $.5 trillion per year in the continuing of the Bush-Obama era tax cuts; another $.4 trillion in Trump war and other spending hikes during his first two years; and more than $.6 trillion in interest payments on the debt  and you reach the $3 trillion added to the national debt in 2017 and 2018.

When George Bush Jr. took office in 2001 the national debt was $5.6 trillion; it almost doubled in 8 years to approximately $10 trillion. When Obama left office in 2016 it had almost doubled again to $19.6 trillion.
Under President George Bush Jr. there were more than $4 trillion in tax cuts. The US army got several trillions additionally. 
Obama cut another $300 billion in taxes in 2009 and then extended the Bush tax cuts, scheduled to expire in 2010, for two more years to 2012 (costing another $900 billion).  Then came another $806 billion in tax cuts for business. In January 2013, Obama extend Bushs tax cuts for another decade costing a further $5 trillion until 2023.
Both Bush and Obama cut taxes by approximately $4 trillion each. And defense-war spending long term costs rose by $6 trillion in total. Roughly a $14 trillion increase to the $5.6 trillion debt of 2000.

To this Trump has since added another $3 trillion during, which adds up to the current $22.5 trillion.
The Treasury Advisory Committee recently warned the US Treasury that it will have to sell $12 trillion more US Treasury bonds, bills and notes, over the next decade, 2018-2028. Thats $12 trillion on top of $22.5 trillion national debt or a $34 trillion national debt by 2028!

In January 2018 the Trump tax cut provided $4.5 trillion tax reduction from 2018 to 2028, for businesses, multinational corporations, wealthy households, and investors. US multinationals alone get nearly half of that $4.5 trillion.
But starting this year, 2019, the middle class will begin paying for those tax reductions for corporate America, investors and the wealthy 1%. Already tax refunds for the average household are down 17%. The tax hike starts in earnest by 2022; middle class will pay $1.5 trillion in higher taxes by 2028.

Todays $22.5 trillion, rising to $34 trillion, is just the US national government debt. Total US debt includes state and local government debt, household debt, corporate bond and business commercial & industrial loan debt, central bank balance sheet debt, and government agencies (GSEs) debt. Add these other forms of debt to the national debt makes the total debt in the US rises some $53 trillion. This lead to an estimated grand total US debt of more than $70 trillion by 2028 (the $900 billion a year in interest charges for the banksters is probably too low an estimate): https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03...and-debt-bomb/
(archived here: http://archive.is/hzpeF)

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## kcchiefs6465

Corn farmers, auto mechanics, and environmental shysters are all reportedly having record years as well.

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## tfurrh

> All the "Never Trumpers" are telling me there will be a recession, like, Monday, and it will all come tumbling down. Even though they have been telling me that since his engineering of the economic upswing since he took office


Isn't that what Ron Paul also says?

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## Schifference

> Isn't that what Ron Paul also says?


I think that prediction harms Ron Paul's credibility. The more you predict something that does not happen the less credible you become. I do not think there will be a recession until the deep state wants one.

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## spudea

> Source? (From a laissez faire/Austrian/classical viewpoint (this is RPF))


Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Book IV:  Retaliatory tariffs should only be established when there is a chance they will work to have both nations lower their restrictions: “There may be good policy in retaliations of this kind, when there is a probability that they will procure the repeal of the high duties or prohibitions complained of. The recovery of a great foreign market will generally more than compensate the transitory inconveniency of paying dearer during a short time for some sorts of goods.”

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## Anti Federalist

> Lucky timing mostly. Presidents get both too much credit and too much blame for what the economy does.  He came along when the economy was already chugging along.  He just has to not screw it up like with his trade wars.


I understand this, and I'm pretty sure Phill does as well.

It's always fun to kick this particular hornet's nest though.

And the fact that there is a resurgence in US heavy manufacturing is undeniably a good thing, regardless if Trump is responsible or not.

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## Anti Federalist

> Isn't that what Ron Paul also says?


Ron Paul says a lot of things.

I know a couple of very "well off" folks who were utterly ruined because they took Ron's pronouncements on gold, monetary collapse and futures as gospel truth.

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## specsaregood

> And the fact that there is a resurgence in US heavy manufacturing is undeniably a good thing, regardless if Trump is responsible or not.



It is not a "good thing" if you are one that wants people dependent on govt handouts or you are one that wants to hasten the collapse of the US govt.

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## tfurrh

> Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Book IV:  Retaliatory tariffs should only be established when there is a chance they will work to have both nations lower their restrictions: “There may be good policy in retaliations of this kind, when there is a probability that they will procure the repeal of the high duties or prohibitions complained of. The recovery of a great foreign market will generally more than compensate the transitory inconveniency of paying dearer during a short time for some sorts of goods.”


Good one. + rep. And I don't hear any echoes.

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## TheCount

> It is not a "good thing" if you are one that wants people dependent on govt handouts or you are one that wants to hasten the collapse of the US govt.


Is protectionism a handout?

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## specsaregood

> Is protectionism a handout?


No, protectionism is a policy or even ideology.  Glad I could help you out with that.

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## phill4paul

> Isn't that what Ron Paul also says?


  For decades now.

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## dannno

> Ron Paul says a lot of things.
> 
> I know a couple of very "well off" folks who were utterly ruined because they took Ron's pronouncements on gold, monetary collapse and futures as gospel truth.


That wasn't supposed to be a short-term strategy. If they were old and about to retire, then that might have hurt them if they threw everything into it.. but otherwise if they were that well off, they should have a lot of physical metals that will very likely provide great benefit at some point.. even if they bought it at a relatively high price point.

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## nobody's_hero

"But in 5 more years I'm gonna have to buy a new washing machine and it'll cost $30 more. None of that other stuff really matters."

--Signed, 
A cash-register libertarian

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## Anti Federalist

> That wasn't supposed to be a short-term strategy. If they were old and about to retire, then that might have hurt them if they threw everything into it.. but otherwise if they were that well off, they should have a lot of physical metals that will very likely provide great benefit at some point.. even if they bought it at a relatively high price point.


It was more involved than just a matter of one person's retirement accounts.

I'm not at liberty to say much more than that.

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## Philhelm

> Hispanic unemployment from 13% to 5.7%?
> Women's unemployment from 8.7% to 4.7%?


That's just because employers ceased hiring as many white men.

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## devil21

Presidents are Public Relations Officers.  Nothing more.  I'd think long time "woke" types around RPF would know this by now.  They take credit for things they had nothing to do with and take the blame also.  Having said that, a PR Officer's job often is to outright lie to the public about the goings on of the corporation they are speaking on behalf of.

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## acptulsa

Choogling?

Must be an economist that wrote the headline.  Whenever they don't know what the hell's going on, they make up a new word to describe it.

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## oyarde

> Ron Paul says a lot of things.
> 
> I know a couple of very "well off" folks who were utterly ruined because they took Ron's pronouncements on gold, monetary collapse and futures as gospel truth.


When I was working I always advised the youngsters to do what I did , put in your 6 percent or whatever to get the company match ( the free money ) and buy some gold , silver land and guns. That way your covered in every direction.

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## oyarde

> Choogling?
> 
> Must be an economist that wrote the headline.  Whenever they don't know what the hell's going on, they make up a new word to describe it.


Sounds like it should be a Creedence song .

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## Zippyjuan

> That's just because employers *ceased hiring as many white men*.


During the same time, white male unemployment went from 9.6% to 3.9%.  They did better than anybody else.  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000028

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## Zippyjuan

> "But in 5 more years I'm gonna have to buy a new washing machine and it'll cost $30 more. None of that other stuff really matters."
> 
> --Signed, 
> A cash-register libertarian


Thank you Mr. President! 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/con...st-100-n999461




> *Trump's washing machine tariffs are costing Americans almost $100 more per appliance*
> 
> _American manufacturers have also jacked up the cost of their appliances, in order to match the higher price of their competitors._
> 
> A little more than a year after President Donald Trump slapped a 20 percent tariff on imported washing machines, new research finds that American shoppers have been the ones to pay the price.
> 
> A study conducted by two researchers at the University of Chicago and a Federal Reserve Board Governor found that washers cost an average of 12 percent more after the imposition of the tariffs, or roughly $86 to $92 more per appliance.
> 
> “It’s a good example of how the benefits of free trade are extremely diffuse but then* the benefits of protectionism are concentrated*,” said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
> ...

----------


## oyarde

Prices have not changed on my american made washing machine .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Prices have not changed on my american made washing machine .


According to the study, even US makers raised their prices.  Less competition allowed them to do so. Even "buying American" does not protect you from paying for tariffs. 




> The study also found that *domestically manufacturers raised prices on their washing machines, as well.* All the big brands studied raised their prices by a range of 5 percent to as much as 17 percent.
> 
> “Firms are operating in competitive markets and they’re going to try to charge what they can,” Dollar said. When that competition is stifled, companies don’t have to worry as much about being priced out of a market if their products are more expensive. “Free trade is a great anti-monopoly policy,” he said.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> Sounds like it should be a Creedence song .


Somethin somethin New Orleans...

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Thank you Mr. President! 
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/business/con...st-100-n999461


The tariffs will make everyone better off so they can more than afford any increased prices just the reverse of what allowing the trade war has done.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The tariffs will make everyone better off* so they can more than afford any increased prices* just the reverse of what allowing the trade war has done.


So higher prices are good things.  It makes things more affordable for people. Interesting.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> So higher prices are good things.  It makes things more affordable for people. Interesting.


It isn't the higher prices that will make people better off.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> It isn't the higher prices that will make people better off.


Must be the "fewer jobs" caused by tariffs and those higher prices which makes them better off then.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Must be the "fewer jobs" caused by tariffs and those higher prices which makes them better off then.


LOL

The World Turned Upside Down

----------


## Zippyjuan

> LOL
> 
> The World Turned Upside Down


I realize you don't know that much about economics but perhaps you can explain how tariffs and their costs to consumers and businesses make people better off?  Other than a few slogans you learned?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I realize you don't know that much about economics but perhaps you can explain how tariffs and their costs to consumers and businesses make people better off?  Other than a few slogans you learned?


More and better jobs.
We are talking about defensive tariffs that cancel out the economic warfare intervention of hostile foreign governments which are different from protectionist tariffs added to an otherwise free market.

----------


## oyarde

> Somethin somethin New Orleans...


Wishin' I were a fast freight train....................................chasin' down a hoodoo there .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> More and better jobs.
> We are talking about defensive tariffs that cancel out the economic warfare intervention of hostile foreign governments which are different from protectionist tariffs added to an otherwise free market.


More cliches.  Not explanation of how it creates jobs. I guess you truely don't understand how it works.  

A tariff is a tax applied when something is imported.  It makes the item more expensive. If it is a consumer item, the consumer is able to afford fewer items so the buy less.  Sellers have lower sales- what are they going to do? Raise wages for their workers? Hire more of them? No, if sales are down, they will  reduce their labor force. Fewer jobs.

If the item is for a manufacturer who will use it in the production of other goods, their costs are now higher. They have a few options- accept a lower profit margin (profit is what they are after- they are not going to do that unless absolutely necessary).  They can try to lower the costs of other inputs- meaning labor. Fewer jobs.   Or they can raise the price they charge which as shown earlier leads to fewer sales.  Fewer sales means fewer workers needed to produce the fewer number of goods so fewer jobs. 

Bingo! Everybody now has higher paying jobs and there are more of them!  Huh?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> More cliches.  Not explanation of how it creates jobs. I guess you truely don't understand how it works.  
> 
> A tariff is a tax applied when something is imported.  It makes the item more expensive. If it is a consumer item, the consumer is able to afford fewer items so the buy less.  Sellers have lower sales- what are they going to do? Raise wages for their workers? Hire more of them? No, if sales are down, they will  reduce their labor force. Fewer jobs.
> 
> If the item is for a manufacturer who will use it in the production of other goods, their costs are now higher. They have a few options- accept a lower profit margin (profit is what they are after- they are not going to do that unless absolutely necessary).  They can try to lower the costs of other inputs- meaning labor. Fewer jobs.   Or they can raise the price they charge which as shown earlier leads to fewer sales.  Fewer sales means fewer workers needed to produce the fewer number of goods so fewer jobs. 
> 
> Bingo! Everybody now has higher paying jobs and there are more of them!  Huh?


You are pretending that Chinese factories hire American workers now?

----------


## Brian4Liberty

> More cliches.  Not explanation of how it creates jobs. I guess you truely don't understand how it works.  
> 
> A tariff is a tax applied when something is imported.  It makes the item more expensive. If it is a consumer item, the consumer is able to afford fewer items so the buy less.  Sellers have lower sales- what are they going to do? Raise wages for their workers? Hire more of them? No, if sales are down, they will  reduce their labor force. Fewer jobs.
> 
> If the item is for a manufacturer who will use it in the production of other goods, their costs are now higher. They have a few options- accept a lower profit margin (profit is what they are after- they are not going to do that unless absolutely necessary).  They can try to lower the costs of other inputs- meaning labor. Fewer jobs.   Or they can raise the price they charge which as shown earlier leads to fewer sales.  Fewer sales means fewer workers needed to produce the fewer number of goods so fewer jobs. 
> 
> Bingo! Everybody now has higher paying jobs and there are more of them!  Huh?


Tell us about how taxes are terrible when Andrew Yang proposes new ones. There’s even a thread ready for you:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...t-Andrew-Yang/

----------


## Zippyjuan

> You are pretending that Chinese factories hire American workers now?


Higher prices means that consumers can afford to buy fewer of ALL GOODS, not just those produced in China. And as was seen in the washing machine tariffs, even US makers raised their prices when the competition had their prices increased. Not just the cost of the directly tariffed goods go up. Steel tariffs raised the costs for automakers who had to raise their prices. Other manufacturers who use steel or aluminum have seen their costs go up.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Tell us about how taxes are terrible when Andrew Yang proposes new ones. There’s even a thread ready for you:
> 
> http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...t-Andrew-Yang/


I don't agree with his ideas either.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Higher prices means that consumers can afford to buy fewer of ALL GOODS, not just those produced in China. And as was seen in the washing machine tariffs, even US makers raised their prices when the competition had their prices increased. Not just the cost of the directly tariffed goods go up. Steel tariffs raised the costs for automakers who had to raise their prices. Other manufacturers who use steel or aluminum have seen their costs go up.


Only temporarily until bringing the jobs home increases prosperity.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Only temporarily until bringing the jobs home increases prosperity.


How long should we wait for that?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> How long should we wait for that?


It's already starting but it will keep going for a long time.

----------


## TheTexan

> It's already starting but it will keep going for a long time.


For at least as long as Trump is President, anyway

----------


## Zippyjuan

> It's already starting but it will keep going for* a long time*.


Tariffs and their high costs will have to stay in place a long time for most to make a move.  Companies do not move locations  quickly.  It takes time to decide to make the move, make agreements for land/ offices, put out bids, construct new equipment/ facilities.  A move can take years.  The company wants to be sure that the protections will still be in place by the time they get it completed.  Meanwhile, consumers are losing billions.  The current tariffs are costing us $1.4 billion every month in higher prices.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> Tariffs and their high costs will have to stay in place a long time for most to make a move.  Companies do not move locations  quickly.  It takes time to decide to make the move, make agreements for land/ offices, put out bids, construct new equipment/ facilities.  A move can take years.  The company wants to be sure that the protections will still be in place by the time they get it completed.  Meanwhile, consumers are losing billions.  The current tariffs are costing us $1.4 billion every month in higher prices.


So, have the fedgov reduce *other* taxes by that amount, every month.

Problem solved.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> So, have the fedgov reduce *other* taxes by that amount, every month.
> 
> Problem solved.


Only if those tax cuts go in the same amounts to the same consumers or businesses are paying in the form of those higher prices. If google gets a $100 tax break that does not help the worker who had to pay $100 more for a washing machine. He still has less money to spend on something else.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I think any tariff that encourages and protects domestic business runs the risk of propping them up. It may help the business or special interest, but it's at the expense of the consumer and ultimately the marketplace. I don't think any businesses or industries are too big to fail. Even if it meant unemployment in the short term, in the long run it makes a freer, more prosperous market. 
> 
> I'm not bit picky about it though, and Trump's tariffs aren't making me lose any sleep at night. But I don't think it has helped in the short run or the long run. I'll stick with my original point in this thread that if we start giving credit to the actions and regulations of central planners for a good economy, then that gives them license to be active and regulate. I'd rather them be passive. (Don't know if I said that right, but you know what I mean.)


You are absolutely right in the absence of foreign government intervention, the only other considerations are that moderate uniform tariffs are a better form of taxation than other taxes and that some industries are strategically important to maintain independence.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

> Calvin Coolidge is generally regarded as the most "libertarian" president the country has ever seen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				Coolidge also signed the Immigration Act of 1924, which greatly restricted immigration into the United States.



He probably did not start military interventions/regime changes to cause refugees caravans though unlike  Neocon-Libertarians leadership.

MH1BGA

Adelson: Let’s Pass Immigration Reform


Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto awards White House  senior adviser  Jared Kushner the Order of the Aztec Eagle, the highest  Mexican honor  awarded to foreigners.

*Jared  Kushner is taking over efforts to increase legal immigration*
Eric Lutz
April 3, 2019
According to Politico, Kushner has been working behind the scenes on a   plan to expand some forms of legal immigration in an effort to “increase   the number of low- and high-skilled workers” in the country.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...er-immigration

----------


## eleganz

You can actually tell, right here in this thread, who clearly hates jobs for Americans and who doesn't.

Trump TDS is a real mental illness that those who suffer from it, cannot control it.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Good observation.
But to be fair, since GOP-led Clinton impeachment of 2000, this here may be the second clearest case of jobs hate in recent decades.

----------


## nobody's_hero

> Higher prices means that consumers can afford to buy fewer of ALL GOODS, not just those produced in China. And as was seen in the washing machine tariffs, even US makers raised their prices when the competition had their prices increased. Not just the cost of the directly tariffed goods go up. Steel tariffs raised the costs for automakers who had to raise their prices. Other manufacturers who use steel or aluminum have seen their costs go up.


People who don't have jobs don't buy much of anything. Well, unless they're buying what they can with money given to them in the form of welfare. That of course, hurts people who do have jobs. But F'k the working man, am I right?

And the theory that we get better jobs and outsource the crappy ones is just laughable. Not everyone in the US is going to become space engineers and work in silicon valley jobs. That's right along the lines of liberal thinking that everyone just goes to college and life is good.

----------


## Torgrimson

> You can actually tell, right here in this thread, who clearly hates jobs for Americans and who doesn't.
> 
> Trump TDS is a real mental illness that those who suffer from it, cannot control it.


Honest to goodness, up until recently, I thought TDS was just a joke or a meme, however you want to put it. But I guess it exists.

----------


## oyarde

> I don't agree with his ideas either.


That guy is too crazy to even call those ideas .

----------


## juleswin

When Obama was reducing the unemployment rate I for some reason did not believe it. I am not exactly sure why I thought it waa as fake but thankfully nobody accused me of having ODS or made a post thanking him for reducing the unemployment rate. 

I really don't know what to make of this, I suspect the fundamentals of the economy is still bad. Record homelessness, consumer debts still high, record spending, deficits and just bad indicators all around. 

If this lasts then, I will go back and thank Trump and Obama for the miracle they worked on the economy. For the sake of all of us, I hope this miracle is built on a solid foundation.

----------


## devil21

> You can actually tell, right here in this thread, who clearly hates jobs for Americans and who doesn't.
> 
> Trump TDS is a real mental illness that those who suffer from it, cannot control it.


I look at "jobs" at a much higher level than most.  I want jobs that aren't merely tax generating avenues for governments.  "Jobs" as they currently exist aren't anything to get excited about.  Wage stagnation, at best, while other costs of living rise and a large chunk of earnings go to government taxation and regulation in various forms.  The purpose of "jobs" these days (see: Fed dual mandate) is to sustain the growth of government via taxation and to ensure the bankers receive their slice of those income tax payments from the slaves.  Or is it easier to stick with 3rd grade reading level labels and buzzwords instead of looking at the issue critically?

Btw, the "official" jobs numbers are smoke and mirrors.  Last month's "job gains" were almost entirely due to the birth/death formula that is plugged into every monthly BLS report, regardless of what the job market _actually_ looked like.  If you believe that the unemployment rate really is 4%, you then should also believe that price inflation is less than 2% also.  No one seriously believes inflation is less than 2% so why believe other stats?  You simply can't believe any of the official stats any more and can only rely on what you witness in your sphere.  Job prospects are decent in many Agenda 2030 target cities.  Everywhere else, not so much.

----------


## nobody's_hero

> I look at "jobs" at a much higher level than most.  I want jobs that aren't merely tax generating avenues for governments.  "Jobs" as they currently exist aren't anything to get excited about.  Wage stagnation, at best, while other costs of living rise and a large chunk of earnings go to government taxation and regulation in various forms.  The purpose of "jobs" these days (see: Fed dual mandate) is to sustain the growth of government via taxation and to ensure the bankers receive their slice of those income tax payments from the slaves.  Or is it easier to stick with 3rd grade reading level labels and buzzwords instead of looking at the issue critically?.


You know, I can actually understand that point of view, but I also see joblessness and welfare as a form of slavery. *Government wants a dependent class*. People who get up at 6:30 in the morning to work an 8-to-5 job and can actually buy their groceries with their own money, well, they have skin in the game. They have something to be proud of, even if it is a crappy job cleaning toilets at a truck stop—there is at least more honor in it than sitting at home watching daytime TV and spamming trips to the mailbox looking for a check they didn't earn.

When the majority of people realize they don't actually have to work for a living, we're going to see a_ real_ implosion of the economy. I guarantee you people are going to be worried about a lot more than a washing machine costing a few bucks more when that happens. Hell they're already adopting UBI in cities here in the USA, where people literally get a paycheck just for exchanging oxygen for carbon-dioxide. Hell, I can do that, I'll vote for whatever, so where's my money?

Believe me, you_ want_ people to work. You _want_ them to have a dog in the fight. I can definitely see it the way you put it, but I also see it my way, and between the two, I've made my choice.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> You know, I can actually understand that point of view, but I also see joblessness and welfare as a form of slavery. *Government wants a dependent class*. People who get up at 6:30 in the morning to work an 8-to-5 job and can actually buy their groceries with their own money, well, they have skin in the game. They have something to be proud of, even if it is a crappy job cleaning toilets at a truck stop—there is at least more honor in it than sitting at home watching daytime TV and spamming trips to the mailbox looking for a check they didn't earn.
> 
> When the majority of people realize they don't actually have to work for a living, we're going to see a_ real_ implosion of the economy. I guarantee you people are going to be worried about a lot more than a washing machine costing a few bucks more when that happens. Hell they're already adopting UBI in cities here in the USA, where people literally get a paycheck just for exchanging oxygen for carbon-dioxide. Hell, I can do that, I'll vote for whatever, so where's my money?
> 
> Believe me, you_ want_ people to work. You _want_ them to have a dog in the fight. I can definitely see it the way you put it, but I also see it my way, and between the two, I've made my choice.


Owe you a rep.

----------


## kcchiefs6465

@Anti Federalist




> *Trump backs off Jones Act waiver for gas tankers* [16 Hours Ago]
> 
> *President Trump’s flirtation with allowing a Jones Act exemption for foreign flag tankers to carry liquefied natural gas between U.S. ports brought Republican senators to the White House, where they said the President changed his mind.*
> 
> After reports that administration was considering a 10-year waiver of Jones Act requirements to allow those LNG shipments to Puerto Rico and New England, a contingent of Republican lawmaker from the Gulf Coast and Alaska requested an urgent May 1 meeting.
> 
> *“After talking to President Trump, I am confident that he realizes how important the Jones Act is to Louisiana’s maritime industry and that no changes will be made.  I made the case that the livelihood of Louisiana families is at stake,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana, said after their White House audience.
> 
> “It would be foolish to push aside those jobs in favor of foreign made and foreign crewed ships,” said Kennedy.*
> ...


hxxps://workboat.com/news/bluewater/trump-backs-off-jones-act-waiver-for-gas-tankers/

What say you, Sailor?

----------


## Anti Federalist

> What say you, Sailor?


About Jones in general, about Trump flip flopping on the issue, or about the actual carriage of LNG to PR and how to best accomplish that?

----------


## kcchiefs6465

> About Jones in general, about Trump flip flopping on the issue, or about the actual carriage of LNG to PR and how to best accomplish that?


Jones Act in general with regards to creating or maintaining maritime jobs and the implications thereof.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> Jones Act in general with regards to creating or maintaining maritime jobs and the implications thereof.


While generally being in favor of it, of course, due to my own self interests, and consistent with my view that tariffs and restrictions on foreign outfits competing within the US benefit US citizens and the country as whole, I think that the need for it is becoming less evident.

As I tried to point out numerous times to RPF member Elwar, before he got into hot water with Thailand's navy, the sea is now one of the most heavily regulated and closely survielled places on the planet.

Global government has grown and blossomed in the name of safety and seagoing regulations, so much so over that past 20 years, that the benefits of running a "Flag of Convenience" ship really no longer exists.

Regardless of where you flag or homeport a ship these days, you will be held to the same supra-national laws and regulating bodies as every other ship in the world.

Your safety and operational systems must all be the same, your crew training, licensing and qualifications must all be IMO and ILO compliant, these were where you "cut corners" and save substantial money in the past.

The days of hiring a mad Greek Captain, a officer's suite of eastern Europeans and a deck force of greehorn Filipino's willing to work for a dollar a day and bowl of cold rice and rat meat, are over.

The only real cost savings now of using non Jones hulls would be in construction costs (but those are increasing as well, even if you do build your hulls in China or India, which are usually junk, I know, I've sailed more than a few.) or tax savings on overall corporate profits.

That said, the excuse to use PR's situation is a canard.

They get as much LNG as they can handle right now, from Trinidad, cheaper than they could get it from Houston.

----------


## shakey1



----------


## Zippyjuan

> I look at "jobs" at a much higher level than most.  I want jobs that aren't merely tax generating avenues for governments.  "Jobs" as they currently exist aren't anything to get excited about.  Wage stagnation, at best, while other costs of living rise and a large chunk of earnings go to government taxation and regulation in various forms.  The purpose of "jobs" these days (see: Fed dual mandate) is to sustain the growth of government via taxation and to ensure the bankers receive their slice of those income tax payments from the slaves.  Or is it easier to stick with 3rd grade reading level labels and buzzwords instead of looking at the issue critically?
> 
> *Btw, the "official" jobs numbers are smoke and mirrors.  Last month's "job gains" were almost entirely due to the birth/death formula that is plugged into every monthly BLS report, regardless of what the job market actually looked like.*  If you believe that the unemployment rate really is 4%, you then should also believe that price inflation is less than 2% also.  No one seriously believes inflation is less than 2% so why believe other stats?  You simply can't believe any of the official stats any more and can only rely on what you witness in your sphere.  Job prospects are decent in many Agenda 2030 target cities.  Everywhere else, not so much.


Birth and death do not count as part of the jobs report.  It is a survey of companies who are asked how many jobs they have. Unemployment figures likewise do not figure births or deaths- they survey people and ask them are they working and if not are they looking for work. (they ask additional questions to clarify about their job situation)   If they are dead, they are not part of the survey.

----------


## oyarde

> You can actually tell, right here in this thread, who clearly hates jobs for Americans and who doesn't.
> 
> Trump TDS is a real mental illness that those who suffer from it, cannot control it.


It is like they do not want to choogle . Pretty unAmerican .

----------


## oyarde

> 


Plus rep . You are a Great American .

----------


## oyarde

> When Obama was reducing the unemployment rate I for some reason did not believe it. I am not exactly sure why I thought it waa as fake but thankfully nobody accused me of having ODS or made a post thanking him for reducing the unemployment rate. 
> 
> I really don't know what to make of this, I suspect the fundamentals of the economy is still bad. Record homelessness, consumer debts still high, record spending, deficits and just bad indicators all around. 
> 
> If this lasts then, I will go back and thank Trump and Obama for the miracle they worked on the economy. For the sake of all of us, I hope this miracle is built on a solid foundation.


I agree that the deficits and spending are bad . I also know there will be no person running who has any chance to be elected that these numbers will not be worse under than they currently are . So any change will bring worse . Gotta enjoy the chooglin' because when it stops it could get bad  , which will probably have no effect on me but if will for millions .

----------


## enhanced_deficit

> Bold leadership leveraging his succesful business experience, big deficit spending paying dividends since raising debt limit. His bold managment of his businesses had also created jobs boom during early years of debt spending boost, hopefully national creditorss won't create the fuss like his business creditors did and allow critics to call it a 'sugar high' boom down the road.
> 
> Thanks are also due to  Deep State for not allowing Mueller to stop MAGA POTUS from continuing with America-First agenda
> 
> Thank You Deep State !
> 
> 
> 
> *                                                                                                                                                                                             Poll:                                                                                                                              Do you believe economic data is manipulated for political agenda?*
> ...



Coincidence that Deep State suddenly leaked this MAGA biz mgmt detail to media in the middle of this debate on his spending debt handling?
Top headline on nbcnews now.

*Trump tax returns from 1985-1994 reportedly show $1 billion in losses 			               *

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Coincidence that Deep State suddenly leaked this MAGA biz mgmt detail to media in the middle of this debate on his spending debt handling?
> Top headline on nbcnews now.
> 
> *Trump tax returns from 1985-1994 reportedly show $1 billion in losses                            *


Another nothing burger:




*Every year from 1985 through 1994,* _according to leaked tax returns obtained by The New York Times_, Donald J. Trump reported a negative *adjusted gross income* on his tax returns. That number grew as new losses were combined with those from prior years. The New York Times previously found that Mr. Trump declared an adjusted gross income in 1995 of negative $915.7 million.

The figures, according to the Times, show that* the losses contradict the image that Trump promoted of himself as an adept and successful New York real estate developer.*
  Or do they show an adept real estate developer following the tax  law's depreciation guidelines to minimize his tax liabilities like every  good shepherd of capital should?
 _“I love depreciation,”_ Mr. Trump said during a presidential debate in 2016.As NYT openly admits:
 *Some fraction of that ocean of red ink represented depreciation on Mr. Trump’s real estate.*  One of the most valuable special benefits in the tax code, depreciation  lets owners of commercial real estate write down the cost of their  buildings.The Times still gloats:
 Over all, Mr. Trump lost so much money that he was able to avoid  paying income taxes for eight of the 10 years. It is not known whether  the I.R.S. later required changes after audits.*The newly-leaked documents, reportedly confirm the details that were leaked in October 2018,* where the NYT accused President  Trump of participating in "questionable" and "dubious" tax strategies  "including instances of outright fraud" that greatly increased the  fortune he received from his parents and allowed him to accrue millions  of dollars in additional wealth from his father's real estate empire  "much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s."
  As one of the authors, NYT reporter Susanne Craig explained at the time, she and Russ Buettner, David Barstow "*got our hands on a massive trove of confidential docs - including 200 tax returns - from Fred Trump’s empire*. We found Donald Trump received hundreds of millions from his dad, some of it via fraudulent tax schemes."
  But, as NYT reports, several weeks ago, a senior official issued a statement saying:
 *“The president got massive depreciation and tax shelter  because of large-scale construction and subsidized developments. That is  why the president has always scoffed at the tax system and said you  need to change the tax laws. You can make a large income and not have to  pay large amount of taxes.”*On Saturday, after further inquiries from The Times, a lawyer for the president, Charles J. Harder, wrote that *the  tax information was “demonstrably false,” and that the paper’s  statements “about the president’s tax returns and business from 30 years  ago are highly inaccurate.”*
  He cited no specific errors, but on Tuesday added that “I.R.S.  transcripts, particularly before the days of electronic filing, are  notoriously inaccurate” and “would not be able to provide a reasonable  picture of any taxpayer’s return.”
  The Times then dangles this open-ended accusatory paragraph:
 The new tax information *does not answer questions raised by  House Democrats in their pursuit of the last six years of Mr. Trump’s  tax returns — about his recent business dealings and possible foreign  sources of financing and influence.* Nor does it offer a fundamentally new narrative of his picaresque career.*And the biggest question, of course is simple - was it illegal?* *No!* *As the NYT itself admitted* after receiving Trump's 1995 tax return form's front-page in October 2016, *there was nothing illegal about using such a manoeuvre:*

*The world's rich take advantage of NOL tax planning all the time,*  and in fact acquiring corporations for their NOL benefit has long been a  strategy in corporate America designed to minimize Federal and State  tax outflows.
 The tax experts consulted by The Times said *nothing in  the 1995 documents suggested any wrongdoing by Mr. Trump, even if the  extraordinary size of the loss he declared would have probably attracted  extra scrutiny from I.R.S. examiners*.
  “The I.R.S., when they see a negative $916 million, that has to pop out,” Mr. Rosenfeld said.
*So why is it a big deal?* To make him seem like he avoids taxes? Well, if any other American could do so legally, wouldn't they?
  Finally, even the NYTimes admits *the ten years of tax returns cover a period of dramatic recession, stock market crash, and real estate collapse*, so, as one Twitter wit suggested (@pharaohfire):
 "*Trump only lost 1 Billion in the worst Real Estate recession in US history outside the Great Depression. To me that’s #winning*"At his nadir, in the post-recession autumn of 1991, Mr. Trump  testified before a congressional task force, calling for changes in the  tax code to benefit his industry.
 _“The real estate business — we’re in an absolute depression,”_ Mr. Trump told the lawmakers, adding:
_“I see no sign of any kind of upturn at all. There is no incentive to invest. Everyone is doing badly, everyone.”__“90% of all millionaires become so through owning real estate.  More money has been made in real estate than in all industrial  investments combined. The wise young man or wage earner of today invests  his money in real estate.” -Andrew Carnegie_

  And one last point for your consideration:

 *AMZN market cap: $945BN* *Taxes paid in 2018: negative $129MM*
While The Times did not obtain the president’s actual tax returns, it *received the information contained in the returns from someone who had legal access to it.*


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...85-1994-decade

----------


## r3volution 3.0

I suppose that someone else (or perhaps myself) has made this point in this thread, but it bears repeating:

The Trump economy is a continuation of the Obama economy and, in both cases, it's a question of growth in spite (not because) of state activity.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I suppose that someone else (or perhaps myself) has made this point in this thread, but it bears repeating:
> 
> The Trump economy is a continuation of the Obama economy and, in both cases, it's a question of growth in spite (not because) of state activity.


LOL

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> LOL


Herp Derp, go read a book (or just look at statistics).

...or don't, doesn't matter; your opinion doesn't matter. 

The world will turn just the same either way.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> It is like they do not want to choogle . Pretty unAmerican .


InSiNceRe AmErIcANs

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Herp Derp, go read a book (or just look at statistics).
> 
> ...or don't, doesn't matter; your opinion doesn't matter. 
> 
> The world will turn just the same either way.


Trump's policies and O'Bama's are nothing alike and their effect on the economy is not at all the same.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Trump's policies and O'Bama's are nothing alike and their effect on the economy is not at all the same.


True. Obama didn't try to slow down the economy by imposing tariffs.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Trump's policies and O'Bama's are nothing alike and their effect on the economy is not at all the same.


There is virtually no difference between their policies.

Trump's government spends more than Obama's; that's a fact.

His "deregulation" is utterly trivial (as I've demonstrated several times by citing the administration's own data). 

Foreign policy hasn't changed (e.g. more troops in Syria than before). 

Certainly nothing re due process/PATRIOT Act has changed. 

Trump's not an especially bad politician; he's just a normal one - which is to say horrible. 

But there's a certain mental illness in the country which prevents people from recognizing this obvious fact, which is what's uniquely problematic.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> True. Obama didn't try to slow down the economy by imposing tariffs.


Fighting back in the trade wars is helping the economy instead of collaborating in hollowing it out.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Fighting back in the trade wars is helping the economy instead of collaborating in hollowing it out.


It is great for our economy that we have the highest steel prices in the world.  Makes our manufacturing which uses steel that much more competitive. Thank you Mr. President!

----------


## Swordsmyth

> There is virtually no difference between their policies.
> 
> Trump's government spends more than Obama's; that's a fact.
> 
> His "deregulation" is utterly trivial (as I've demonstrated several times by citing the administration's own data). 
> 
> Foreign policy hasn't changed (e.g. more troops in Syria than before). 
> 
> Certainly nothing re due process/PATRIOT Act has changed. 
> ...


LOL

His deregulation as opposed to massive increases in regulation is making a big difference and his tax cuts for Americans and tariffs to fight back in the trade wars are also totally different and a big help.

He has reduced our presence in Afghanistan and Syria as opposed to O'Bummer increasing it.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Fighting back in the trade wars is helping the economy instead of collaborating in hollowing it out.


Yea, voluntary exchange is terrible; the state ought to determine the conditions under which exchange will be allowed. 

That's going to enrich us all, comrade.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> It is great for our economy that we have the highest steel prices in the world.  Makes our manufacturing which uses steel that much more competitive. Thank you Mr. President!


It is much better than having no steel industry and sending all our money to China.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Yea, voluntary exchange is terrible; the state ought to determine the conditions under which exchange will be allowed. 
> 
> That's going to enrich us all, comrade.


That seems to be what you believe in since that is what you want to allow the ChiComs to do.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> LOL
> 
> His deregulation as opposed to massive increases in regulation is making a big difference


It's almost literally nothing; tens of millions compared to trillions.

...I've said for years that a large part of the stupidity of voters is explained by confusion as to the meaning of orders of magnitude.




> and his tax cuts


He didn't cut taxes; he increased them.

Every dollar which the state spends has to be extracted from society; he's spending more, and so he's extracting more. 

That it appears in the form of higher interest rates rather than higher federal income tax rates is irrelevant; cost is cost. 




> for Americans and tariffs to fight back in the trade wars are also totally different and a big help.


Maybe the petition of the candle-stick makers ought to be reconsidered. 




> He has reduced our presence in Afghanistan and Syria as opposed to O'Bummer increasing it.


There are more troops in Syria now than when Obama left office, are there not?

----------


## Zippyjuan

> It is much better than having no steel industry and sending all our money to China.


Heck of a bargain for us. 

https://www.al.com/news/2019/05/trum...perts-say.html




> *Trump steel tariffs cost $900,000 for every job created, experts say*
> 
> President Donald Trump has shown little interest in removing the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed more than a year ago despite growing evidence Americans are paying a hefty price for these tariffs and increasing pressure from Republicans in Congress to remove them.
> 
> *U.S. consumers and businesses are paying more than $900,000 a year for every job saved or created by Trump steel tariffs*, according to calculations by experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.* The cost is more than 13 times the typical salary of a steelworker,* according to Labor Department data, and it is similar to other economists' estimates that Trump's tariffs on washing machines are costing consumers $815,000 per job created.


More at link.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

* Gundlach: debt increased by  6+% of GDP, 45% of entire corporate bond market would be junk*

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Heck of a bargain for us. 
> 
> https://www.al.com/news/2019/05/trum...perts-say.html
> 
> 
> 
> More at link.


And the Chinese trade war has cost us much more and would end up costing us much more yet if we let it go on.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> It's almost literally nothing; tens of millions compared to trillions.
> 
> ...I've said for years that a large part of the stupidity of voters is explained by confusion as to the meaning of orders of magnitude.


What part of the difference between massive additions and subtraction don't you understand?





> He didn't cut taxes; he increased them.
> 
> Every dollar which the state spends has to be extracted from society; he's spending more, and so he's extracting more. 
> 
> That it appears in the form of higher interest rates rather than higher federal income tax rates is irrelevant; cost is cost.


Even if you define things that way his rate of increase is less than O'Bummer's





> Maybe the petition of the candle-stick makers ought to be reconsidered.


No comparison, China is warping the marketplace through government interference, it would be like the window makers petitioning that their product no longer be outlawed.







> There are more troops in Syria now than when Obama left office, are there not?


I don't think so but it will soon be only 200 and then 0, meanwhile the troops in Afghanistan have been cut and will soon all be gone.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> What part of the difference between massive additions and subtraction don't you understand?


Surely you aren't talking about the extent of state intervention in the economy, that being a virtually unmitigated "addition."




> Even if you define things that way his rate of increase is less than O'Bummer's


...swell, we get poorer and oppressed at a slightly reduced speed (allegedly). 




> No comparison, China is warping the marketplace through government interference, it would be like the window makers petitioning that their product no longer be outlawed.


Or maybe China can produce things more cheaply because China is liberalizing while the USA is moving inevitably toward socialism. 




> I don't think so but it will soon be only 200 and then 0, meanwhile the troops in Afghanistan have been cut and will soon all be gone.


I think so, and we'll see about the future. 

Trump talks a lot about invading Iran (and hired Bolton).

About the only good thing I have to say about the previous scoundrel is that he genuinely did not (despite FOX propaganda) want to invade Iran.

The current scoundrel does.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0  View Post
> 
> *There are more troops in Syria now than when Obama left office, are there not?*
> 
> 
> *I don't think so* but it will soon be only 200 and then 0, meanwhile the troops in Afghanistan have been cut and will soon all be gone.


Trump said we would be out of Syria by January 22nd, 2019.  

Obama sent 400 "advisors and trainers" to Syria to train rebel groups.  Trump increased it to more than 2,000.  Looks like 1,000 will stay meaning more than twice as many as Obama sent there will remain in Syria for the foreseeable future. https://nypost.com/2019/03/17/us-pla...thdrawal-call/




> *US planning to keep 1,000 troops in Syria despite Trump’s withdrawal call
> * 
> 
> The US military is readying plans to keep 1,000 American troops in Syria — a development that comes three months after President Trump announced he wanted a full withdrawal, according to a report Sunday.
> 
> The Trump administration’s talks with Turkey, European allies and US-backed Kurdish fighters haven’t resulted in an agreement to create a safe zone in the country’s northeast, where the Kurds are fighting Islamic State terrorists, the Wall Street Journal reported.
> 
> After Trump’s December announcement, Turkey threatened to cross the border into Syria and attack the Kurds, whom Ankara accuses of being a terrorist group.
> 
> ...

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Surely you aren't talking about the extent of state intervention in the economy, that being a virtually unmitigated "addition."
> 
> 
> 
> ...swell, we get poorer and oppressed at a slightly reduced speed (allegedly).


You are trying to confuse different things as if they are all the same, they are not and your claim that Trump's economy is the same as O'Bummer's is laughable.





> Or maybe China can produce things more cheaply because China is liberalizing while the USA is moving inevitably toward socialism.


That is pure garbage, the Chinese government is inextricably intertwined with every facet of their economy and they are blowing a debt bubble so large it makes ours look small, they have been subsidizing their industries and erecting barriers to ours to a ridiculous extent.






> I think so, and we'll see about the future. 
> 
> Trump talks a lot about invading Iran (and hired Bolton).
> 
> About the only good thing I have to say about the previous scoundrel is that he genuinely did not (despite FOX propaganda) want to invade Iran.
> 
> The current scoundrel does.


Trump will not invade Iran and he will not do anything like Libya.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Trump said we would be out of Syria by January 22nd, 2019.  
> 
> Obama sent 400 "advisors and trainers" to Syria to train rebel groups.  Trump increased it to more than 2,000.  Looks like 1,000 will stay meaning more than twice as many as Obama sent there will remain in Syria for the foreseeable future. https://nypost.com/2019/03/17/us-pla...thdrawal-call/


That was discredited, only 200 will be left and eventually they will leave.

*Top US General Denies Plans To Leave 1,000 Troops In Syria*

----------


## Zippyjuan

> That was discredited, only 200 will be left and eventually they will leave.
> 
> *Top US General Denies Plans To Leave 1,000 Troops In Syria*


The Korean War may eventually end too.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> The Korean War may eventually end too.


Trump is negotiating that now.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Trump is negotiating that now.


So any day now.

----------


## Anti Federalist

> according to calculations by experts at the *Peterson Institute for International Economics*.


Globalist think tank promotes globalism.

Your data is suspect.




> In an opinion piece for The New York Times published in 2016, Steven Rattner called the new building of the Peterson Institute "the locker room of the Team Globalization and Free Trade cheering squad." We should not close our borders or retreat from the world, said Rattner, but free trade has winners and losers, and "we need to be more sensitive to the losers and try to help," for example by redistribution of income through the tax system, which, he said, we haven't been doing. He goes on to state that Ross Perot was right when he said that the North American Free Trade Agreement would transfer American jobs to Mexico, particularly in manufacturing. From 2009 to 2013, employment in the American auto manufacturing sector rose by 23%, from 560,000 to 690,000. But employment in the Mexican auto sector rose from 368,000 to 589,000, or 60%. "I’m happy that 221,000 more Mexicans got jobs," he writes, "but let’s be honest: Absent open borders, many of those jobs would have been in America." He concludes by pointing out that wages in American auto manufacturing are down by 12.7%. Furthermore, American auto manufacturing compensation was $35.67 an hour; in Mexico, it was $6.36 an hour. Adam Posen, then the Peterson Institute's director, responded that “fetishization” of any industry was “immoral.”
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peters...onal_Economics

----------


## devil21

> You know, I can actually understand that point of view, but I also see joblessness and welfare as a form of slavery. *Government wants a dependent class*. People who get up at 6:30 in the morning to work an 8-to-5 job and can actually buy their groceries with their own money, well, they have skin in the game. They have something to be proud of, even if it is a crappy job cleaning toilets at a truck stop—there is at least more honor in it than sitting at home watching daytime TV and spamming trips to the mailbox looking for a check they didn't earn.
> 
> When the majority of people realize they don't actually have to work for a living, we're going to see a_ real_ implosion of the economy. I guarantee you people are going to be worried about a lot more than a washing machine costing a few bucks more when that happens. Hell they're already adopting UBI in cities here in the USA, where people literally get a paycheck just for exchanging oxygen for carbon-dioxide. Hell, I can do that, I'll vote for whatever, so where's my money?
> 
> Believe me, you_ want_ people to work. You _want_ them to have a dog in the fight. I can definitely see it the way you put it, but I also see it my way, and between the two, I've made my choice.


I do want people to work and have a dog in the fight.  What I don't want is "jobs" that suck away 80% of the fruits of people's labor from taxation, inflation, fees-to-exist, etc.  That is the majority of what qualifies as jobs these days.  Tax and fee engines (batteries...see Matrix explanation of the "construct") and not much else.  If you look at the whole system from a 10,000 feet level, the whole system as it currently stands is a giant ponzi scam.  That system relies on the current iteration of "jobs" and the controllers know it, hence the Fed's dual mandate.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> You are trying to confuse different things as if they are all the same, they are not and your claim that Trump's economy is the same as O'Bummer's is laughable.


That you don't (or won't) see that Trump's economy is virtually identical to Obama's is laughable. 

e.g.



Where's the "Trump effect"?

Nowhere...

The fact is that the massively hampered market economy which exists despite the Obamas and Trumps of the world is still productive enough to recover in spite of the massively socialistic policies of said clowns. 




> That is pure garbage, the Chinese government is inextricably intertwined with every facet of their economy and they are blowing a debt bubble so large it makes ours look small, they have been subsidizing their industries and erecting barriers to ours to a ridiculous extent.


Therefore, we should do the same, but larger! 

..herp, derp, herp derp...




> Trump will not invade Iran and he will not do anything like Libya.


Had he been in office at the time, he would have done exactly what was done in Libya.




"We're sitting around, we have soldiers all over the middle east, and we're not bringing them in..."

"We should go in, we should stop this guy, which would be very easy and very quick."

----------


## Swordsmyth

> That you don't (or won't) see that Trump's economy is virtually identical to Obama's is laughable.


LOL






> Therefore, we should do the same, but larger! 
> 
> ..herp, derp, herp derp...


We aren't doing anything like the ChiComs.





> Had he been in office at the time, he would have done exactly what was done ins Libya.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "We're sitting around, we have soldiers all over the middle east, and we're not bringing them in..."
> 
> "We should go in, we should stop this guy, which would be very easy and very quick."


Trump said a lot of things in the past that do not show themselves in his current policy, whether he was being PC in order to build his career and possibly prepare to run for office or whether he has learned and changed doesn't matter, he will not invade Iran and he has done nothing like Libya.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> LOL


Since you found the unemployment chart showing no difference at all between Obama and Trump so amusing, I give you some more:










> We aren't doing anything like the ChiComs.


The US is moving toward socialism, while China is moving away from it. 

This is because the US is democratic and China is not (the culture which you think matters is utterly meaningless). 




> Trump said a lot of things in the past that do not show themselves in his current policy, whether he was being PC in order to build his career and possibly prepare to run for office or whether he has learned and changed doesn't matter, he will not invade Iran and he has done nothing like Libya.


LOL

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Since you found the unemployment chart showing no difference at all between Obama and Trump so amusing, I give you some more:


Correlation is not causation, O'Bummer had the Fed blowing a big fat bubble while he increased taxes and regulations, the Fed has been raising rates under Trump while he has reduced taxes and regulations.




> The US is moving toward socialism, while China is moving away from it. 
> 
> This is because the US is democratic and China is not (the culture which you think matters is utterly meaningless).


The US may or may not be moving towards socialism but Trump is slowing or reversing it and China is not moving away from it at all.
The culture is all important in both cases.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

*


Thank You President Barack Hussein Obama ?*

Apparently Zippy claimed that most of the jobs came from Obama era  (pending confirmation).

----------


## Swordsmyth

> *Thank You President Barack Hussein Obama ?*
> 
> Apparently Zippy claimed that most of the jobs came from Obama era  (pending confirmation).


The longer I'm here the worse your posts get, now you are turning into zippy's little brother.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Correlation is not causation, O'Bummer had the Fed blowing a big fat bubble while he increased taxes and regulations, the Fed has been raising rates under Trump while he has reduced taxes and regulations.


Obama and Trump have both increased dramatically the size of government. Now, it is true that Trump has recently not had the benefit of extraordinary money printing; that's why he's been complaining about the lack of it. The impending massive depression won't be Trump's fault uniquely; he won't have done anything exceptional, just continued the stupidities of his predecessors. 




> The US may or may not be moving towards socialism







> but Trump is slowing or reversing it


The government is substantially larger now than when Obama left office; this is mathematical fact. 




> and China is not moving away from it at all.


China has made about as much progress toward liberalism as we've made toward socialism, which is to say, alot. 




> The culture is all important in both cases.


It means nothing; but, by all means, keep railing against tacos while the bolsheviks (for whom you enthusiastically vote) take power.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Obama and Trump have both increased dramatically the size of government. Now, it is true that Trump has recently not had the benefit of extraordinary money printing; that's why he's been complaining about the lack of it. The impending massive depression won't be Trump's fault uniquely; he won't have done anything exceptional, just continued the stupidities of his predecessors. 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The government is substantially larger now than when Obama left office; this is mathematical fact. 
> ...

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> 


You must be the annoyed pig.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> You must be the annoyed pig.


I'm not at all annoyed but you seem to be.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> I'm not at all annoyed but you seem to be.


I'm cool as a cucumber.



Here's the thing; it annoys me that relatively intelligent people fall for obvious con-men. 

That said, it doesn't really matter; this system is going to the same conclusion regardless of what any of us do. 

So, che sara sara.

----------


## oyarde

> The Korean War may eventually end too.


It has been Chooglin' along too , but those commie bastards can surrender and end it .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Trump is negotiating that now.


From just over a year ago:

----------


## Zippyjuan

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#67cc30708caa




> *Trump Is Falling Almost 1 Million Jobs Short Vs. Obama*
> 
> The U.S. Bureau of Labor announced that the economy added 224,000 jobs in June vs. expectations of 160,000 and May’s revised result of 72,000. The 224,000 is still strong, but there were* revisions to April and May that subtracted 11,000 people hired in those months* and government employment added 33,000. Overall private payrolls added 191,000 employees.
> 
> The stock markets are reacting negatively due to the jobs number being stronger than expected since investors are lowering their expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points later this month. A 25 basis point downward move is still being priced into the market, but that may wind up being optimistic due to the strong report.
> 
> Over 29 months Obama added almost 1 million more jobs than Trump
> 
> Trump entered office on January 20, 2017, and starting with February 2017 he has been President for 29 months.* Total job growth during that time has been 5.613 million or 194,000 per month* with those results being helped by the tax cut.
> ...


more at link.

----------


## RonZeplin

Financial team.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#67cc30708caa
> 
> 
> 
> more at link.


The Fed is throttling the economy instead of pouring gasoline on it and Trump is growing real jobs instead of government.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The Fed is throttling the economy instead of pouring gasoline on it and Trump is growing real jobs instead of government.


33,000 of last month's jobs added were government jobs. Trump isn't creating those jobs-unless he is directly hiring those people. 




> government employment added 33,000. Overall private payrolls added 191,000 employees.

----------


## kcchiefs6465

> The Fed is throttling the economy instead of pouring gasoline on it and Trump is growing real jobs instead of government.


What does "pouring gasoline on it" mean?

----------


## shakey1

> Financial team.


uh-huh

----------


## Swordsmyth

> What does "pouring gasoline on it" mean?


Handing out free money to fan the flames and create fake growth.

----------


## kcchiefs6465

> Handing out free money to fan the flames and create fake growth.


And when Trump advocates for as much I assume you disagree?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> And when Trump advocates for as much I assume you disagree?


Yes.

----------


## Swordsmyth

U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in June, climbing for the  second straight month, thanks in large part to increased production of  motor vehicles and parts.The Federal Reserve said Tuesday  manufacturing production rose 0.4% last month, above the 0.2% expected  by analysts in a Reuters poll.
The June numbers were stronger than  the 0.2% growth seen in May, which had been the first growth of 2019  after several months of manufacturing declines or unchanged conditions.
The  data could ease lingering concerns about the strength of the U.S.  factory sector in the face of a slowing global economy. The June gains  were the largest for the sector since December.


Gains in manufacturing as well as mining, which was up 0.2% in June,  offset a 3.6% decline in output by utilities, as milder summer  temperatures reduced the need for air conditioning.
Capacity  utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms  are using their resources, also climbed to 75.9% in June from 75.6% in  May.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/u-manufacturi...140738398.html

----------


## phill4paul

> U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in June, climbing for the  second straight month, thanks in large part to increased production of  motor vehicles and parts.The Federal Reserve said Tuesday  manufacturing production rose 0.4% last month, above the 0.2% expected  by analysts in a Reuters poll.
> The June numbers were stronger than  the 0.2% growth seen in May, which had been the first growth of 2019  after several months of manufacturing declines or unchanged conditions.
> The  data could ease lingering concerns about the strength of the U.S.  factory sector in the face of a slowing global economy. The June gains  were the largest for the sector since December.
> 
> 
> Gains in manufacturing as well as mining, which was up 0.2% in June,  offset a 3.6% decline in output by utilities, as milder summer  temperatures reduced the need for air conditioning.
> Capacity  utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms  are using their resources, also climbed to 75.9% in June from 75.6% in  May.
> 
> More at: https://news.yahoo.com/u-manufacturi...140738398.html


  Every time I see this post of mine I expect to see a slight downturn preyed upon by the Zippy Pin-Heads.

  But, every time I see a post showing the wonders of a Trump economy, fostered by a PRO-American business president.

  Chooglin' like a mo-fo.

  I'd get tired of winning if winning didn't feel so good. What about yourself?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Every time I see this post of mine I expect to see a slight downturn preyed upon by the Zippy Pin-Heads.
> 
>   But, every time I see a post showing the wonders of a Trump economy, fostered by a PRO-American business president.
> 
>   Chooglin' like a mo-fo.
> 
>   I'd get tired of winning if winning didn't feel so good. What about yourself?


I'll never get tired of winning:




It's not all bunnies and sunlight but the economy never travels a smooth path and things are better than they are worse and far better than the haters keep predicting.

----------


## Swordsmyth

Contrary to what you may read elsewhere, the U.S. economy did not slump in the second quarter of the year. 

 True, real gross domestic product slowed to a 2.1% annual pace from 3.1% in the first quarter, but as I’ve reported before,  GDP is a poor measure of the economy’s health over the short or medium  term. It’s distorted by accounting entries that can sometimes make good  news seem bad.


That’s what happened last quarter: The good news was hidden. Much of  the slowdown in GDP in the second quarter stemmed from businesses  prudently drawing down their inventories of unsold goods in face of a  slowing global economy. 
 This inventory factor subtracted nearly 1  percentage point from growth, but it should be seen as a positive that  businesses don’t have a lot of inventories piling up. Fewer inventories  now mean fewer layoffs later when sales moderate. Too many recessions  have resulted from an overbuild of inventories.

 Where it really counts — what Americans bought and sold — the report released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed a slight improvement over the first quarter. 
 Final  sales to domestic purchasers — the best measure of demand within the  United States — rose at a 3.5% annual pace in the spring, the best  growth in a year. 
 Consumers were particularly exuberant:  Consumer spending increased at a 4.3% annual pace, the most in six  quarters. Spending on goods, such as autos, clothing and food, increased  at a 8.3% pace, the fastest growth since 2006, when homeowners were  buying SUVs with their home-equity loans.

 (Fortunately, most consumers are keeping their debts at manageable levels nowadays.)

More  at:  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ear-2019-07-26

----------


## oyarde

Anything greater than 2 is really better than expected pretty much since 2000 and especially since the crash in 08 . Govt has long interfered to the point where it is difficult for business to overcome it for at least two decades. What you are seeing now is Americans working hard which is a good thing .

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Anything greater than 2 is really better than expected pretty much since 2000 and especially since the crash in 08 . Govt has long interfered to the point where it is difficult for business to overcome it for at least two decades. What you are seeing now is Americans working hard which is a good thing .


When the population is growing at less than one percent a year (0.7%) , 2.1% economic growth is actually pretty good- three times the population growth rate.

----------


## devil21

Good thing we have record deficit spending and complete suspension of debt limits again to ensure the number still appears to be in positive territory.

----------


## Swordsmyth

New  federal earnings figures for ALL Americans, including minorities, are  panicking the Left, because they are so good for Donald Trump

----------


## PAF

> New  federal earnings figures for ALL Americans, including minorities, are  panicking the Left, because they are so good for Donald Trump


Ah, I see you didn’t bother reading this either:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ca-Broke-Again

Big-huge-government-statists usually don’t like data like that ;-)

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Ah, I see you didn’t bother reading this either:
> 
> http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ca-Broke-Again
> 
> Big-huge-government-statists usually don’t like data like that ;-)


The turn around of the economy is just starting, O'Bummer ran huge deficits and the American public lost ground.

I don't like deficits but Trump is doing lots of other things that are helping the economy and hopefully he will cut the deficit when we take back the House.

----------


## PAF

> The turn around of the economy is just starting, O'Bummer ran huge deficits and the American public lost ground.
> 
> I don't like deficits but Trump is doing lots of other things that are helping the economy and hopefully he will cut the deficit when we take back the House.


LOL. It is so difficult for you to read and absorb facts and data.

I am sure you no longer believe in the Tooth Fairy. Do you still believe in Santa Clause?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> LOL. It is so difficult for you to read and absorb facts and data.
> 
> I am sure you no longer believe in the Tooth Fairy. Do you still believe in Santa Clause?


You are the one in denial.
As usual.

----------


## PAF

> You are the one in denial.
> As usual.


About the Tooth Fairy or Santa? Or both???

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The turn around of the economy is just starting, O'Bummer ran huge deficits and the American public lost ground.
> 
> I don't like deficits but Trump is doing lots of other things that are helping the economy and* hopefully he will cut the deficit when we take back the House*.


Don't count on it.  He was praising that bill which increased the deficit and got rid of the debt ceiling for the next two years.  Trump loves debt. 




> *Go for it Republicans, there is always plenty of time to CUT!*

----------


## PAF

> 


LOL that about sums up his On the Record. Though it is really not LOL.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> LOL that about sums up his On the Record. Though it is really not LOL.


In the rest of that, he said that if the US got into a recession, he would renegotiate US debt- "I would just give them half".

In the other video he could not explain to Bill O'Reily just how he would get rid of the debt in eight years other than "it's easy!"  He went into a spiel about growing the economy but Bill pointed out you would still have the debt unless you have more taxes to pay it down. Trump went back into "grow the economy".

----------


## Swordsmyth

> In the rest of that, he said that if the US got into a recession, he would renegotiate US debt- "I would just give them half".


We should do that or default on it entirely, it's been the world's biggest case of identity theft for a long time now.

----------


## Swordsmyth

Since the trolls slid this off the current page I'll repost it:

New   federal earnings figures for ALL Americans, including minorities, are   panicking the Left, because they are so good for Donald Trump

----------


## specsaregood

> Every time I see this post of mine I expect to see a slight downturn preyed upon by the Zippy Pin-Heads.
>   But, every time I see a post showing the wonders of a Trump economy, fostered by a PRO-American business president.
>   Chooglin' like a mo-fo.
>   I'd get tired of winning if winning didn't feel so good. What about yourself?


I don't care for the debt; but goddamn.  we are booked over 6 months out and still new work is coming from every corner of the country every week and willing to wait for us.  we raised our rates, because $#@! it.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Since the trolls slid this off the current page I'll repost it:
> 
> New   federal earnings figures for ALL Americans, including minorities, are   panicking the Left, because they are so good for Donald Trump


Trends which all began under Obama.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Trends which all began under Obama.


LOL

It's long past the point where you can claim that O'Bummer who had the Fed on his side is responsible for the current economy that Trump has achieved with the Fed fighting him.

----------


## oyarde

Today's snap shot , wholesale gasoline 1.75 , copper 2.66 , West Texas Light Sweet Crude 53.95 , down eight and a half percent , Brent Crude 65.19 , One Yr Oil Forecast 62.00 , Gold 1432.40 , Dow , still over 26,500 , heating oil 1.85 , Nat Gas 2.20 . I bought gas in Indianapolis today for 2.50 . Still Chooglin' ( insert favorite Fogerty here )

----------


## Zippyjuan

> LOL
> 
> It's long past the point where you can claim that O'Bummer who had the Fed on his side is responsible for the current economy that Trump has achieved with the Fed fighting him.


That also began under Obama.  The Fed started raising rates back up before Trump became president under Janet Yellen.  The Fed should not make money supply decisions bases on what the president wants.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> That also began under Obama.  The Fed started raising rates back up before Trump became president under Janet Yellen.  The Fed should not make money supply decisions bases on what the president wants.


Right near the end they raised a little, that doesn't change anything.

Trump is doing well on the economy considering what shape it was in when he was elected.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Right near the end they raised a little, that doesn't change anything.
> 
> Trump is doing well on the economy considering what shape it was in when he was elected.


Trump is doing the best he can to wreck it with his trade wars.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Trump is doing the best he can to wreck it with his trade wars.


Nope, fighting back is helping repair it.

If you slide the news off the current page again I can always post it again.

----------


## oyarde

Some of my Fogerty favorites , Born on the Bayou , Bad Moon Rising , Green River , Run Through The Jungle , Fortunate Son ,I Put A Spell On You , Midnight Special , Keep On Chooglin' , It Came Out Of The Sky ,Travelin' Band , Walk On Water, Sweet Hitchhiker ........

----------


## Swordsmyth

A cluster of economic reports just released confirm the continuing  strength of the U.S. economy. This is especially impressive in light of  the perceived global slowdown, including the economic powerhouses of  Germany and China.
Wednesday’s report from accounting firm ADP  showed job growth across all sectors of the economy in July, as well as  across all sizes of businesses. The goods-producing sector — mining,  construction, and manufacturing — added 9,000 jobs last month, while the  services sector — transportation, education, healthcare, and  hospitality — gained 146,000 jobs. Small businesses (1-49 employees)  hired 11,000 new people in July; medium-sized businesses (50-499  employees) added 67,000 workers; and large businesses (over 500  employees) brought on 78,000 people.
 This was in line with expectations and well above the estimated 100,000 new jobs needed to keep up with population growth.
 Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showing further declines  in initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits confirmed the  health of the labor market. 

This was expected as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his remarks  following the board’s decision to cut the Fed Funds rate by one-quarter  of one percent: “People who live and work in low-and middle-income  communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now  getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives.”       	   
  Indeed those “new and better chapters” are characterized by  remarkable growth in real (inflation-adjusted) wages, as noted by the  U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): “Wages in the United States  increased 5.48 percent in June 2019 over the same month in the previous  year.” According to the BEA, wage growth has been increasing since last  December, staying at or above five percent on an annualized basis since  February. Put another way, a worker earning $20 an hour a year ago is  now making $21 an hour. In addition, he is keeping most of it in his  pocket as inflation remains benign, at well below two percent.
 Parsing the BEA report reveals another bright spot: Based on slightly  different metrics, the number of employed workers increased by 247,000  last month, 91,000 higher than ADP’s report. Further the number employed  full-time increased by 453,000 last month, while the number of  part-time workers fell by 174,000. This confirms that not only are there  more full-time workers, many part-time workers are being promoted to  full-time status.
 All of which continues to be reflected in healthy consumer  confidence, as reported by the University of Michigan’s index. It moved  higher in July to 98.4 from July 2018’s 97.9, while its Index of  Consumer Expectations jumped by 3.2 percent, from 87.3 in July a year  ago to 90.1. Said Michigan’s chief economist Richard Curtin: “Consumer  sentiment remained … at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017.”

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...of-u-s-economy

----------


## Occam's Banana

> The Fed should not make money supply decisions bases on what the president wants.


FIFY

No, wait ...




> The Fed should not make money supply decisions bases on what the president wants.


There! Even better ...

----------


## Swordsmyth



----------


## phill4paul

> A cluster of economic reports just released confirm the continuing  strength of the U.S. economy. This is especially impressive in light of  the perceived global slowdown, including the economic powerhouses of  Germany and China.
> Wednesday’s report from accounting firm ADP  showed job growth across all sectors of the economy in July, as well as  across all sizes of businesses. The goods-producing sector — mining,  construction, and manufacturing — added 9,000 jobs last month, while the  services sector — transportation, education, healthcare, and  hospitality — gained 146,000 jobs. Small businesses (1-49 employees)  hired 11,000 new people in July; medium-sized businesses (50-499  employees) added 67,000 workers; and large businesses (over 500  employees) brought on 78,000 people.
>  This was in line with expectations and well above the estimated 100,000 new jobs needed to keep up with population growth.
>  Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showing further declines  in initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits confirmed the  health of the labor market. 
> 
> This was expected as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his remarks  following the board’s decision to cut the Fed Funds rate by one-quarter  of one percent: “People who live and work in low-and middle-income  communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now  getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives.”       	   
>   Indeed those “new and better chapters” are characterized by  remarkable growth in real (inflation-adjusted) wages, as noted by the  U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): “Wages in the United States  increased 5.48 percent in June 2019 over the same month in the previous  year.” According to the BEA, wage growth has been increasing since last  December, staying at or above five percent on an annualized basis since  February. Put another way, a worker earning $20 an hour a year ago is  now making $21 an hour. In addition, he is keeping most of it in his  pocket as inflation remains benign, at well below two percent.
>  Parsing the BEA report reveals another bright spot: Based on slightly  different metrics, the number of employed workers increased by 247,000  last month, 91,000 higher than ADP’s report. Further the number employed  full-time increased by 453,000 last month, while the number of  part-time workers fell by 174,000. This confirms that not only are there  more full-time workers, many part-time workers are being promoted to  full-time status.
>  All of which continues to be reflected in healthy consumer  confidence, as reported by the University of Michigan’s index. It moved  higher in July to 98.4 from July 2018’s 97.9, while its Index of  Consumer Expectations jumped by 3.2 percent, from 87.3 in July a year  ago to 90.1. Said Michigan’s chief economist Richard Curtin: “Consumer  sentiment remained … at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017.”
> ...


  That's a whole lotta hiring to not be producing, Zip. Guess companies just love to give out money. Lol.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 


That was actually Trump's hated WTO who negotiated that one. 




> The quota* was set a decade ago* to settle a transatlantic dispute over an EU ban on meat from cattle that were raised with growth hormones. *World Trade Organization rules required the volumes be made available to other nations that export beef*, and Australia, Argentina and Uruguay gradually replaced the U.S. as the largest suppliers.
> 
> The* tonnages involved are relatively small, with the maximum level of the quota representing just 2.6% of U.S. beef exported in 2018*. Still, the move could add to tailwinds for U.S. beef exports, a relative bright spot for American agriculture, which has been battered by trade disputes with China and elsewhere. The value of U.S. beef exports in 2018 reached a record $8.4 billion, Department of Agriculture data show.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ouse-on-friday

----------


## Swordsmyth

> That was actually Trump's hated WTO who negotiated that one. 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ouse-on-friday


Broken clocks are right once in awhile.

----------


## oyarde

I worked ten hours this week at my part time retirement job , five ea day for 1117.04  . Gotta take Mrs O out for Sun lunch , she is high maint. . Gold is 1440 . Keep on Chooglin'

----------


## phill4paul

> I worked ten hours this week at my part time retirement job , five ea day for 1117.04  . Gotta take Mrs O out for Sun lunch , she is high maint. . Gold is 1440 . Keep on Chooglin'


    Pretty damn good. Be careful that these side jobs don't dip into your S.S. and spend more time with the missus. Or plinking.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Disappointed in today's Drudge headline as it seems to paint MAGA's economy as artificially propped up sugar high bubble boom. 
This is nothing like big spending/Fed stimulated Bush economy before the 2008-09 economic bubble burst, MAGA is more fiscally responsible than Bush.





*
BUBBLE POPPING?
NEXT SELL-OFF 'LEHMAN-LIKE'
RECESSION WARNING  *

----------


## Swordsmyth

Job seekers have the upper hand in today’s labor market — so much so  that employers are beginning to be more flexible in order to bring on  new talent. 
In the last year, nearly 40% of companies have eased their job requirements in order to fill vacant roles, according to a new survey from Adecco USA.  The recruiting and staffing firm for temporary workers asked over 500  hiring managers about what efforts they’re using to widen their  candidate pools. About half of respondents represented employers in  manufacturing, industrial, call center or transportation fields, while  the remaining respondents came from all other industries.
What  requirements are employers willing to budge on most? According to the  survey, hiring managers are more likely to give leeway when it comes to  previous related experience. Instead, 78% of companies will consider  applicants with transferable skills that could lend to train-ability in  the new job, rather than them having to fit the description exactly.
  “To compete in today’s tight labor market, employers across industries  are becoming more flexible with their job requirements,” said Amy  Glaser, senior vice president of Adecco USA, in a release.   “In many cases employers are bringing in talent that may not have all  the skills needed and then upskilling or training candidates to complete  job-specific tasks.”
Employers surveyed were most willing to be flexible when it came to:

Lowering years of experience (62%)Speeding up the hiring process (52%)Reducing education requirements (50%)Stopping drug testing candidates (21%)Stopping background checks (16%)
The  report supports other industry numbers that suggest employers are  willing to reframe expectations in order to attract more applicants to  an open position. According to a separate survey,  84% of HR managers say their company is willing to hire an employee  whose skills don’t exactly match those reflected in the job description  but can be developed through training. On the flip side, 62% of  candidates who applied for a job they felt under-qualified still landed  an offer.
These are just more examples of a strong job market in which workers have the advantage, whether they’re quitting in record numbers or  “ghosting” opportunities that don’t meet their own expectations. Timing around the hiring process also plays a significant role: 70% of job seekers will lose interest in a role if they don’t hear back from the employer within a week of their first interview. 

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/near...e-workers.html

----------


## oyarde

Still Chooglin' . Gold 1537.60 , silver 18.22 , Dow 25,778 ,  one yr oil forecast 63.00 , Nat Gas 2.20 , West Texas Light sweet Crude  54.93 , Brent Crude 59.51 , wholesale gasoline 1.65 , copper 2.54 , heating oil 1.82 , Palladium 1464.00 , Rhodium 3950.00 , Chooglin.

----------


## devil21

> LOL
> 
> It's long past the point where you can claim that O'Bummer who had the Fed on his side is responsible for the current economy that Trump has achieved with the Fed fighting him.


The Trump vs Fed "fight" is scripted as a cover story for changes the bankers/CFR that fill Trump's cabinet have been planning for years.  Particularly the dollar being dropped as global reserve currency and the effects that has on American consumers and how the Fed's role in monetary policy is changing.  Perhaps Trump is ignorant of the bigger picture and is being manipulated but that doesn't really matter.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The Trump vs Fed "fight" is scripted as a cover story for changes the bankers/CFR that fill Trump's cabinet have been planning for years.  Particularly* the dollar being dropped as global reserve currency* and the effects that has on American consumers and how the Fed's role in monetary policy is changing.  Perhaps Trump is ignorant of the bigger picture and is being manipulated but that doesn't really matter.


What do you think would replace the dollar as the main global reserve currency?  Euros?  The British Pound?  Chinese yuan? Russian rubles?

----------


## kcchiefs6465

> What do you think would replace the dollar as the main global reserve currency?  Euros?  The British Pound?  Chinese yuan? Russian rubles?


Cowrie shells.

----------


## oyarde

> What do you think would replace the dollar as the main global reserve currency?  Euros?  The British Pound?  Chinese yuan? Russian rubles?


I am currently accepting the remainder of this week silver , gold , ammo , wampum , hides , gasoline , nails , fish hooks , lead , platinum , rhodium , palladium , wheat cents at twice face value and copper .

----------


## devil21

> What do you think would replace the dollar as the main global reserve currency?  Euros?  The British Pound?  Chinese yuan? Russian rubles?


How many times have I answered that question for you over our years together on RPF, Zippy? 200?  300?  500?

----------


## Swordsmyth

The  public continues to hear or read that President Trump's trade policies  are hurting the U.S. economy and destroying our relationship with the  world and hurting the U.S. consumer.  They say the tariffs are  especially harmful and causing price increases.  I am having trouble  finding factual data that support those talking points.  Why do we see  general statements in the media instead of the actual data?

Here are some of the data:
In 2016, the last year of President Obama, exports were $1.45 trillion, and imports were $2.19 trillion.
In  2017, the first year of President Trump, exports were $1.55 trillion  (up around 7%), and imports were $2.4 trillion (up around 10%).
In  2018, exports were $1.67 trillion (up around 8%, or up 15% over  2016).  Imports were $2.54 trillion (up around 6%, up 16% over 2016).
In  2019, the first six months show around an $8-billion decrease in  exports, or down less than 1%, and imports are up around $3 billion, or  up less than 0.25%.
On August 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that from July 2018 to July 2019, import prices were down 1.8%, and export prices were down 0.9%
So  which economic statistic shows that Trump's policies have hurt our  relationship with trading partners around the world?  Which statistics  show that the U.S. consumer has been hurt?  Think how much Trump's  energy policies have helped the U.S. consumer. 
The  truth is, the U.S. economy is doing much better than most of the world  and much better than projected precisely because of Trump's tax and  regulatory policies.  Trump is right that China and other countries have  gotten away with murder on trade for decades, and Trump is dealing with  it after previous presidents and Congress looked the other way.  The  media, in their reporting, act as though there were no tariffs prior to  Trump, and that is an intentional attempt to mislead the public.

Does  anyone think China would have stopped at taking manufacturing jobs  instead of going after service jobs as well?  The U.S. becomes  vulnerable to enemies if we let them control such a high percentage of  our manufacturing.

More at: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...e_economy.html

----------


## Swordsmyth

Company payrolls surged by 195,000 in August, well above Wall Street  estimates and at a time when fears have been growing about a looming  recession, according to a report Thursday from ADP and Moody’s  Analytics.

In all, services accounted for 184,000 of the total, with  goods-producing industries adding 11,000. Manufacturing grew by 8,000  and construction contributed 6,000, though natural resources and mining  saw a reduction of 2,000. Information services saw a loss of 6,000 jobs.
Companies  with 50 to 499 employees were the largest growth sector at 77,000,  though small businesses grew by 66,000. Firms with more than 1,000  employees saw growth of 47,000.
The ADP/Moody’s count comes a day  ahead of the more closely watched Labor Department nonfarm payrolls  report. Dow Jones estimates that the report will show payroll growth of  150,000 after July’s 164,000 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.7%.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/05/payr...adpmoodys.html

----------


## devil21

ADP is _always_ higher than the BLS figures and even then BLS _always_ revises their past figures downward after no one is paying attention.

BLS figure released today was 130,000.  The real figure is probably closer to 90,000, based on average later downward revisions.  The August 2018 birth/death adjustment alone was over +100,000.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> ADP is _always_ higher than the BLS figures and even then BLS _always_ revises their past figures downward after no one is paying attention.
> 
> BLS figure released today was 130,000.  The real figure is probably closer to 90,000, based on average later downward revisions.  The August 2018 birth/death adjustment alone was over +100,000.


I'm glad to see that you have such faith in deepstate statistics.

----------


## Swordsmyth

Anti-Trumpers agree: The president’s trade battle with China is  hurting our economy and, in particular, America’s farmers. We are told  that the tariff tiffs have caused a collapse in U.S. agricultural  exports to China, and consequent heartbreak in our heartland.
It isn’t true.
As  with most criticisms lodged against the Trump White House, this  oft-repeated narrative is way overblown. Turns out, far from suffering  what CNBC recently described as “a devastating year for farmers” the farmers of America overall are doing quite well.


The Department of Agriculture recently forecast  that net farm income will rise nearly 5 percent this year, to $88  billion. That growth comes on top of increases in both 2017 and 2018 and  is, just for the record, faster than the overall growth of the economy.
For  sure, times could be better. The forecast for this year means that real  net farm income would come in 36 percent below its peak of $136.5  billion in 2013 and slightly below its 2000-18 average ($90.1 billion).  Farmers suffered a severe drop in total revenues  during the Obama years, collapsing from $484 billion in 2013 to $412  billion in 2016. Weirdly, I don’t remember the media paying much  attention.


Perhaps most startling, the DOA forecasts that the average farm will  see net cash income increase more than 11 percent this year, “the first  annual increase after 4 consecutive years of declines.” Moreover, the  median income of farm households will be up almost 4 percent this year.
At  the same time, farmers are getting richer; the net worth of the farm  sector is likely to rise slightly this year, to $2.7 trillion, mostly  because of higher real estate values.


In short, it turns out that as a whole our farmers are doing ok, or maybe even better than ok. 
None of this prevents the liberal media from hyperventilating about farm-belt misery. A recent headline from an industry journal blares:  “USDA Slashes U.S. Corn, Soybean Export Estimates To China.” Indeed,  the USDA predicted that, thanks largely to a drop in corn and soybean  shipments, total agricultural exports will decline 6 percent this year,  to “the lowest level recorded since 2016.”
That sounds ominous,  and seems to bolster the notion that Brazil is swooping in to supply  Chinese soybean demand, thanks to the trade spat. But the story is not quite so simple.  Brazil’s soybean exports to China, as it happens, are also falling,  down 40 percent in August and off 14 percent through the first eight  months of the year.
The reason? The dreaded swine fever, which  through June had killed some 22 percent of China’s pig herds, the major  consumers of soybeans. Some analysts are projecting that as much as half of China’s pig population could die. Fewer pigs, less soybean demand.
The  real story is that even as soybean exports to China have dropped, pork  exports have increased, due to the swine flu. Overall, the USDA projects that U.S. agricultural exports will be up slightly in the current fiscal year. 
So  how are America’s farmers responding to these fluctuations in markets  and tariffs? The media would have us believe that the trade battle is  sabotaging support for President Trump in farm country, throwing his reelection in jeopardy.
The Hill recently ran a story pumping that notion and quoting John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, who, the article states, “ripped President Trump" over his escalating trade war with China, calling it a “huge unforced error.”
The  piece failed to mention that the Nebraska Farmers Union is a chapter of  the National Farmers Union, a left-wing organization that donates money exclusively to farm-state Democrats and is committed to green energy and federal price supports for farm products. It opposes large-scale corporate farms and President Trump.

More at: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...tle-with-china

----------


## Danke



----------


## Swordsmyth

The two latest jobs reports confirm that the U.S. economy remains on  solid footing, growing across every sector (including manufacturing) and  putting additional pressure on China to come to terms in the tariff war  with President Trump.
Wednesday’s jobs report from ADP,  one of the country’s largest payroll processors, showed that the U.S.  economy added 195,000 jobs in August, with gains across every sector and  every company size. And that didn’t include the 17,200 jobs that were  added in the franchise sector in August.
Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  showed that the economy added 130,000 jobs in August. The BLS report  added that the unemployment rate remained close to 50-year lows at 3.7  percent, while seasonally-adjusted earnings climbed by 3.2 percent  compared to a year ago. It also noted that the “labor participation  rate” — the share of Americans either working or seeking employment —  increased in August, indicating that the robust and growing economy is  drawing in people from the sidelines. Employers asked their workers to  stay on the job a little longer as well in August, another indication of  a healthy and active economy.

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...ng-u-s-economy

----------


## Zippyjuan

> The two latest jobs reports confirm that the U.S. economy remains on  solid footing, growing across every sector (including manufacturing) and  putting additional pressure on China to come to terms in the tariff war  with President Trump.
> Wednesday’s jobs report from ADP,  one of the country’s largest payroll processors, showed that the U.S.  economy added 195,000 jobs in August, with gains across every sector and  every company size. And that didn’t include the 17,200 jobs that were  added in the franchise sector in August.
> Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  showed that the economy added 130,000 jobs in August. The BLS report  added that the unemployment rate remained close to 50-year lows at 3.7  percent, while seasonally-adjusted earnings climbed by 3.2 percent  compared to a year ago. It also noted that the “labor participation  rate” — the share of Americans either working or seeking employment —  increased in August, indicating that the robust and growing economy is  drawing in people from the sidelines. Employers asked their workers to  stay on the job a little longer as well in August, another indication of  a healthy and active economy.
> 
> More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...ng-u-s-economy


BLS noted that of the 130,000 jobs added (below the expected 158,000 jobs), 25,000 were government hires for the upcoming Census.   They also revised down June and July numbers by 20,000 each.  That follows the downward revision of half a million jobs (500,000) between the end of 2018 and March of 2019.   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...how-2019-08-21

----------


## Swordsmyth

> BLS noted that of the 130,000 jobs added (below the expected 158,000 jobs), 25,000 were government hires for the upcoming Census.   They also revised down June and July numbers by 20,000 each.  That follows the downward revision of half a million jobs (500,000) between the end of 2018 and March of 2019.   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...how-2019-08-21


I'm glad to see that you have such faith in deepstate statistics.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> I'm glad to see that you have such faith in deepstate statistics.


Same BLS you cite in your post.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> That comes from your link.(not the 500k but the same BLS source you cited in your post)


The deepstate doesn't like Trump, they are likely to skew things to make him look bad so if it still looks not too bad it must be really great.

----------


## phill4paul

Black unemployment hits a new record low. Union leaders trying to stem flow of Union workers from voting for Trump. Chooglin'.

----------


## devil21

> Same BLS you cite in your post.


SS doesn't actually read the articles he posts.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Black unemployment hits a new record low. Union leaders trying to stem flow of Union workers from voting for Trump. Chooglin'.


Trump's approval rating from all "non- whites" is an astonishing 18%. It is 13% among black voters. Chokin'.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> SS doesn't actually read the articles he posts.


I read it, I just don't have the faith in the deepstate that you do.

----------


## phill4paul

> Trump's approval rating from all "non- whites" is an astonishing 18%. It is 13% among black voters. Chokin'.


  Ar these the same pollsters that said Hillary would win?

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Ar these the same pollsters that said Hillary would win?


She did win the popular vote.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> She did win the popular vote.


That's not what they predicted.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> That's not what they predicted.


They predicted she would lose the popular vote?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> They predicted she would lose the popular vote?


They predicted she would win the EC.

----------


## Danke

> She did win the popular vote.



By invalid voters.  Almost 17 million not legal votes.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> By invalid voters.  Almost 17 million not legal votes.


Surely that many would be easy to find.  Trump's election fraud committee couldn't find any.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Surely that many would be easy to find.  Trump's election fraud committee couldn't find any.


That's not what happened.

----------


## phill4paul

> She did win the popular vote.


Lol.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> That's not what happened.


How many did they find?  Is there a list of the 17 million?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> How many did they find?  Is there a list of the 17 million?


They were stonewalled and then disbanded.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> They were stonewalled and then disbanded.


Thank you for sharing that list of all the illegal voters they found.

----------


## devil21

Bringing up 3 year old "news" is always a great way to post slide and derail a thread away from facts, eh Phill4paul?  It's a little too scripted and obvious these days.  Whenever someone out of left field throws out "Hillary!!111!!!1" something-something in the middle of a thread it's a good clue that previous posts are damaging to the Trumpkin narrative.

----------


## phill4paul

> Bringing up 3 year old "news" is always a great way to post slide and derail a thread away from facts, eh Phill4paul?  It's a little too scripted and obvious these days.  Whenever someone out of left field throws out "Hillary!!111!!!1" something-something in the middle of a thread it's a good clue that previous posts are damaging to the Trumpkin narrative.


   So you're saying Zippy's poll is a "fact?" Lol.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> So you're saying Zippy's poll is a "fact?" Lol.


Can  you show that it is wrong?  Or just make noise?

----------


## devil21

> So you're saying Zippy's poll is a "fact?" Lol.


I don't know if it's a fact or not, seeing how I don't particularly trust either of your opinions these days, but yelling out something about Hillary (or Obama, even that still happens) in the middle of a thread is a good clue that the topic isn't going the direction that Trumpkins desire.  Just a learned observation...

----------


## Swordsmyth

The median household income in the United States increased less than a  percent from 2017 to 2018, while the median earnings of workers in the  United States rose 3.4%.
The data, released by the Census Bureau  Tuesday, also shows that the official poverty rate in the United States  dropped to 11.8%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from 2017. 

More at: https://usafacts.org/reports/facts-i...nsus-2017-2018

----------


## phill4paul

> I don't know if it's a fact or not, seeing how I don't particularly trust either of your opinions these days, but yelling out something about Hillary (or Obama, even that still happens) in the middle of a thread is a good clue that the topic isn't going the direction that Trumpkins desire.  Just a learned observation...


  I get that from progressives all the time even though you are libertarian. History is history. There is a reason people don't believe in polls anymore. And it is singularly because the media gushed polling disinformation about a Hillary win. 
  The economy is doing fine. I see it around me all the time. The factory jobs are once again out there.

----------


## devil21

> I get that from progressives all the time even though you are libertarian. History is history. There is a reason people don't believe in polls anymore. And it is singularly because the media gushed polling disinformation about a Hillary win. 
>   The economy is doing fine. I see it around me all the time. The factory jobs are once again out there.


Perhaps you should watch the Obama's new Netflix documentary about Chinese factories being set up in the US.  The future is very...hmmm...mandarin.

----------


## phill4paul

> Perhaps you should watch the Obama's new Netflix documentary about Chinese factories being set up in the US.  The future is very...hmmm...mandarin.


 I don't really have a problem with foreign countries basing manufacturing here. Paying corporate taxes here. Employing workers here. Sounds better to me than companies from here basing manufacturing there. Paying taxes there. Employing people there. Do you?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I don't really have a problem with foreign countries basing manufacturing here. Paying corporate taxes here. Employing workers here. Sounds better to me than companies from here basing manufacturing there. Paying taxes there. Employing people there. Do you?


He has the exact opposite position to yours, he wants to make China great again.


It is also ridiculous to pretend that there aren't plenty of American companies starting up, expanding or moving back along with companies from many other countries.
And it's just getting started.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> He has the exact opposite position to yours, he wants to make China great again.
> 
> 
> It is also ridiculous to pretend that there aren't plenty of American companies starting up, expanding or moving back along with companies from many other countries.
> And it's just getting started.


We are aware that you love tariffs, trade wars, and the chaos they cause. 

Jobs leaving China are heading to other Asian countries- not the US. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...es/1582529001/




> *Are tariffs against China bringing factories and jobs back to the U.S.?
> *
> 
> The tariffs that President Donald Trump has slapped on Chinese imports* haven't sparked the widespread return of manufacturers to the U.S. that Trump envisioned.*
> 
> About 41% of American companies are considering moving factories from  China because of the trade war, or have already done so, but fewer than 6% are heading to the U.S., the American Chamber of Commerce in China said in a recent survey.
> 
> *Companies are largely eyeing Southeast Asia and Mexico.*
> 
> ...

----------


## Swordsmyth

> We are aware that you love tariffs, trade wars, and the chaos they cause.


Liberty is chaos, that's why control freaks like you fear it and want to help China destroy it.




> Jobs leaving China are heading to other Asian countries- not the US. 
> 
> https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...es/1582529001/


Some are coming here and more will in addition to the new ones being created here.
And every job that leaves China for ANYWHERE else is a victory for the whole world.

----------


## Danke

Interesting take on the outlook for the USA:

----------


## Zippyjuan

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...194717808.html




> *Trump’s trade war has killed 300,000 jobs*
> 
> President Trump says he is “winning big time, against China.” But his trade war is causing measurable damage to the U.S. economy, with the pain likely to worsen.
> 
> Forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics estimates that Trump’s trade war with China has already reduced U.S. employment by 300,000 jobs, compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war. That’s a combination of jobs eliminated by firms struggling with tariffs and other elements of the trade war, and jobs that would have been created but haven’t because of reduced economic activity.
> 
> The firm’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, told Yahoo Finance that the job toll from the trade war will hit about 450,000 by the end of the year, if there’s no change in policy. By the end of 2020, the trade war will have killed 900,000 jobs, on its current course. The hardest-hit sectors are manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and retail.
> 
> Other data back up the Moody’s Analytics numbers. Employers have created 1.3 million jobs so far this year, down from 1.9 million during the same period in 2018. The manufacturing sector has actually contracted, with many producers struggling with higher prices caused by Trump’s tariffs. Business investment is growing by the smallest amount since late 2016.
> ...



More at link.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...194717808.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More at link.


LOL

Not only is that obvious ChiCom propaganda pulled out of thin air but it pales in comparison to the damage China has done and would do to our economy.

----------


## Swordsmyth

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow  said Sept. 13 that the U.S. economy was now on the upswing despite a  looming global recession and the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary  policy. U.S. retail sales  rose 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in August, beating market  expectations, according to a report released by the Commerce Department  on Sept. 13. Solid retail data was driven by more-than-expected auto  sales and online shopping.
 “The core retail sales are growing at about 7.5 percent annualized  for the last three months, which gives you a hint of a big Q3 number.  That’s a terrific number,” Kudlow told reporters at the 2019 House  Republican Conference Member Retreat in Baltimore.


More at: https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-eco...w_3081304.html

----------


## Swordsmyth

*Over A Million Households Climbed To Middle Class Under Trump, Census Data Shows*

----------


## Zippyjuan

> *Over A Million Households Climbed To Middle Class Under Trump, Census Data Shows*


It notes:




> The comparison isn’t quite apples-to-apples, since the* bureau implemented a new methodology in its latest report* that somewhat influenced the results for both 2018 and 2017.





> Trump has benefited from* entering office during a period of expansion*,

----------


## Swordsmyth

> It notes:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				The comparison isn’t quite apples-to-apples, since the* bureau implemented a new methodology in its latest report* that somewhat influenced the results for both 2018 and 2017.


The next thing it says:




> *Still, the data bears out a middle-class expansion unseen since the 1960s.*





> Trump has benefited from* entering office during a period of expansion*,


The next thing it says:




> yet the economy has also been boosted by his cutting of taxes and  regulations. By fostering a pro-business climate, he also sparked  optimism for investment.  The economic strength and the resilience of the labor market, in  particular, have given Trump room to mount unprecedented economic  pressure on China, whose communist regime has long been hurting the  United States with unfair trade practices such as forced technology  transfer, theft of intellectual property, and currency manipulation.

----------


## Swordsmyth

The U.S. Census Bureau has published a report into income and poverty levels across the United States, finding that* median household income in 2018 was $63,179 while median earnings for all workers was $40,247*.
  Additionally, as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, *poverty has now fallen for the fourth consecutive year, thanks to the healthy state of the economy and it has hit pre-recession lows.*



*In 2018, the official U.S. poverty rate was 11.8 percent,* a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the 12.3 percent recorded a year previously. Poverty levels are *now significantly lower than in 2007,* just before the financial crisis and the most recent U.S. recession.
  The 2018 data shows that poverty rates for children fell 1.2  percentage points to 16.2 percent while it remained at a steady 9.7  percent among over 65s.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...-recession-low

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Additionally, as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, poverty has now fallen for the *fourth consecutive year,* thanks to the healthy state of the economy and it has hit pre-recession lows.



Half of that time being while Obama was president.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Half of that time being while Obama was president.


With the Fed juicing the economy.

His policies would have completely collapsed it otherwise, Trump has made real progress in spite of the Fed aggressively driving up rates.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> With the Fed juicing the economy.
> 
> His policies would have completely collapsed it otherwise, Trump has made real progress in spite of the Fed aggressively driving up rates.


The economy continued making gains despite Trump's best efforts to slow it down with his trade wars.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> The economy continued making gains despite Trump's best efforts to slow it down with his trade wars.


Trump fighting back in the trade wars has been helping along with the tax and regulation cuts, the only think O'Bummer had was help from the Fed & friends.

----------


## Republicanguy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d1XnD6BdgI

----------


## Swordsmyth

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d1XnD6BdgI


Probably Fake News, if not then definitely an idiot.

Go suck on a lime, slave.

----------


## Republicanguy

No you are a hypocrite. And a bull $#@!ter.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> No you are a hypocrite. And a bull $#@!ter.


You are a slave, a liar and a fool.

----------


## Mach

> Interesting take on the outlook for the USA:


That deserves it's own thread.

I wish it was a couple more hours long, with more details on each main subject.

Funny, he didn't even mention anything about the numbers having to do with future migration.... especially when talking about all of those brown spots on the map.

----------


## Krugminator2

> Half of that time being while Obama was president.


Steep economic downturns lead to big recoveries. Name one policy Obama implemented that was pro-growth. He raised taxes and increased regulation

The Fed deserves most of the credit for this short term bounce.  But over the long run a rising standard of living comes from being more productive. Trump's deregulation and corp tax cuts will make America more prosperous over a 20-30 year period in the same way the country benefited from Reagan long after he was out of office. Same with Thatcher in Britain. Same with Pinochet in Chile. Presidents get way too much credit or blame over the short run and not enough over the long run.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Steep economic downturns lead to big recoveries. Name one policy Obama implemented that was pro-growth. He raised taxes and increased regulation
> 
> The Fed deserves most of the credit for this short term bounce.  But over the long run a rising standard of living comes from being more productive. Trump's deregulation and corp tax cuts will make America more prosperous over a 20-30 year period in the same way the country benefited from Reagan long after he was out of office. Same with Thatcher in Britain. Same with Pinochet in Chile. Presidents get way too much credit or blame over the short run and not enough over the long run.


I agree that presidents get both too much credit and too much blame for the economy. Luck can play a huge part.  Trump has benefited from moves made to shore up the economy long before he took office. He entered during a period of strong economic growth.  Obama entered during one of the worst recessions in decades.  The post- recession gains are now shrinking.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I agree that presidents get both too much credit and too much blame for the economy. Luck can play a huge part.  Trump has benefited from moves made to shore up the economy long before he took office. He entered during a period of strong economic growth.  Obama entered during one of the worst recessions in decades.  The post- recession gains are now shrinking.


O'Bummer did nothing but hurt the economy as you have admitted by failing to list one thing he did to help it.
Trump is helping it greatly.

----------


## Swordsmyth

The most surprising thing about the latest unemployment report isn’t that the rate dropped to the lowest level since December 1969. It’s that unemployment wasn’t supposed to get anywhere near that low under President Trump. At least, not if you believed mainstream Keynesian economists.
    The economy created 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses. The separate household survey, which is used to track unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000. 
    Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market. 
    This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump’s administration that we faced a “secular stagnation.” Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy.
    When the economy started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake when President Obama was president.
    That is false. 
    We can get a sense of the true impact of Trump’s economic policies by comparing the actual results since he took office to the forecasts made at that time. What did economists think the economy would be like if nothing changed over the next 10 years in terms of tax rates or regulatory policies
    For the purpose of comparison, we used the Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year economic outlook released in January 2017. The CBO’s economic forecasts tend to mirror the consensus of other economists.
    The results of this comparison are stark.






GDP growth has exceeded the CBO’s forecast in every quarter starting with Q2 2017. That includes the second quarter of this year, which saw 2% growth where the CBO had projected 1.5%. 
    As a result, the economy is now $590 billion bigger than it was supposed to be. 
    The CBO projected that unemployment would never get below 4.4%, and would start rising again this year. Instead, the unemployment rate fell from 4% at the start of the year to 3.5%. The current unemployment rate is now a full percentage point below the CBO’s forecast. That translates into 1.6 million more people employed than the CBO expected.
    And, where the CBO had forecast a steady decline in the labor force  participation rate – which measures what percentage of the working-age  population is either employed or looking for a job – it has been  climbing. The CBO projected it would go from 62.9% at the end of 2016 to  62.7% in the last quarter. 
    The actual figure for September was 63.1%.
    Oh, and inflation has been running slightly lower than expected –  which wasn’t supposed to happen either. A typical headline about the  Trump economy was the one in the Wall Street Journal shortly after he  won the election, which said, “Inflation and Interest Rates Forecast to  Rise Under Trump Presidency.”
    If Trump were a Democrat, the news media would be shouting hosannas  from every rooftop – instead of braying for Trump’s impeachment. 
    So what changed after the CBO issued its forecast? Trump reversed as  many Obama-era policies as he could, as fast as he could. He halted  pending regulations, rolled back more than $30 billion of existing  rules, brought corporate tax rates in line with our competitors, fixed  the worst elements of Dodd-Frank.

More at: https://issuesinsights.com/2019/10/0...res-the-proof/

----------


## Swordsmyth

> The most surprising thing about the latest unemployment report isn’t that the rate dropped to the lowest level since December 1969. It’s that unemployment wasn’t supposed to get anywhere near that low under President Trump. At least, not if you believed mainstream Keynesian economists.
>     The economy created 136,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of businesses. The separate household survey, which is used to track unemployment, showed that the number of unemployed dropped by 275,000. 
>     Not only did the job market pull 275,000 off the unemployment line last month, it pulled more than 100,000 who had dropped out of the labor force back into the job market. 
>     This is good news, but it continues to confound mainstream economists, who solemnly predicted at the start of Trump’s administration that we faced a “secular stagnation.” Any talk of strong economic growth was a fantasy.
>     When the economy started to outperform expectations, liberals shrugged it off by claiming that the upturn in growth was all baked in the cake when President Obama was president.
>     That is false. 
>     We can get a sense of the true impact of Trump’s economic policies by comparing the actual results since he took office to the forecasts made at that time. What did economists think the economy would be like if nothing changed over the next 10 years in terms of tax rates or regulatory policies
>     For the purpose of comparison, we used the Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year economic outlook released in January 2017. The CBO’s economic forecasts tend to mirror the consensus of other economists.
>     The results of this comparison are stark.
> ...


Bump to counter forum sliding spambot

----------


## Swordsmyth

Recent news articles reinforce reports that have been carried by  major-media outlets for over a year: Employment levels in blue-collar  jobs have been growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, with  most of the growth taking place since Donald Trump took office.
 The Investment Watch blog ran a report on October 12 that was  headlined “Under Trump, employment for the non-college-educated is the  best it’s been in 50 years.” The article noted: “Blue-collar  professionals such as plumbers and mechanics are earning more than the  average salary for white-collar jobs — and they don’t require a  traditional college degree, according to a recent Bloomberg report.”
 That statement is particularly significant in the face of multiple  reports in the news of late about the burden of college debt. CNBC  reported last year that more than 44 million Americans collectively hold  nearly $1.5 trillion in student debt. When they graduate, the average  student loan borrower has $37,172 in student loans, a $20,000 increase  from 13 years ago.

  The article noted that though college graduates still earn more than  non-graduates, avoiding student debt could make trade schools more  appealing. Many trade programs are covered in part by employers, and  state-sponsored programs in Michigan and Georgia offer trade degrees  tuition-free.
 This phenomenon was analyzed by reporters at _Issues & Insights_ last May.
 The _Issues & Insights_ writers found from analyzing the  data that 1.2 million goods-producing jobs were created in the U.S.  economy since Trump took office — more than twice as many as were  created during the last 27 months of the Obama administration.
 During Obama’s last 27 months in office, the economy created 109,000  manufacturing jobs, compared with 470,000 created from January 2017  through May 2019 under Trump. Jobs in the durable-goods manufacturing  industry declined during this time under Obama. 
 Blue-collar workers are seeing stronger wage gains as well, noted the  report, with weekly wages for goods-producing jobs up $70 under Trump  compared with $39 under Obama.

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...s-50-year-high

----------


## phill4paul

> Recent news articles reinforce reports that have been carried by  major-media outlets for over a year: Employment levels in blue-collar  jobs have been growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, with  most of the growth taking place since Donald Trump took office.
>  The Investment Watch blog ran a report on October 12 that was  headlined “Under Trump, employment for the non-college-educated is the  best it’s been in 50 years.” The article noted: “Blue-collar  professionals such as plumbers and mechanics are earning more than the  average salary for white-collar jobs — and they don’t require a  traditional college degree, according to a recent Bloomberg report.”
>  That statement is particularly significant in the face of multiple  reports in the news of late about the burden of college debt. CNBC  reported last year that more than 44 million Americans collectively hold  nearly $1.5 trillion in student debt. When they graduate, the average  student loan borrower has $37,172 in student loans, a $20,000 increase  from 13 years ago.
> 
>   The article noted that though college graduates still earn more than  non-graduates, avoiding student debt could make trade schools more  appealing. Many trade programs are covered in part by employers, and  state-sponsored programs in Michigan and Georgia offer trade degrees  tuition-free.
>  This phenomenon was analyzed by reporters at _Issues & Insights_ last May.
>  The _Issues & Insights_ writers found from analyzing the  data that 1.2 million goods-producing jobs were created in the U.S.  economy since Trump took office — more than twice as many as were  created during the last 27 months of the Obama administration.
>  During Obama’s last 27 months in office, the economy created 109,000  manufacturing jobs, compared with 470,000 created from January 2017  through May 2019 under Trump. Jobs in the durable-goods manufacturing  industry declined during this time under Obama. 
>  Blue-collar workers are seeing stronger wage gains as well, noted the  report, with weekly wages for goods-producing jobs up $70 under Trump  compared with $39 under Obama.
> ...


  Just stop it. You are not cool unless hate on America.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Just stop it. You are not cool unless hate on America.


I was (pro) Country when (pro) Country wasn't cool.

----------


## Swordsmyth

How much of the monetary gains from the Trump economic speedup have  gone to the middle class? If you ask Democratic senators and  presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Bernie  Sanders, the answer to that question is ... almost none.
 " [Donald] Trump's economy is great for billionaires, not for working  people," Sanders likes to say. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi  grouses that under the Trump agenda, "the rich get richer, and everyone  else is stuck paying the bill."
 Uh-huh. That's been the standard liberal riff for the last couple of  years as they try to explain how a president who they said would create a  second Great Depression has created boom times with the lowest  inflation and unemployment in half a century.
 But not a word of this is true, according to new Census Bureau data  on the incomes of America's middle class. This study by former Census  Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found  gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or  average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into  office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about  $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017).
 Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over  $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That  was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the  extra income is about three times larger.
 These gains under Trump are so large in such a short period of time  that I asked the Sentier Research team to triple-check the numbers. Sure  enough, on each occasion, the income swing was $5,000.
 This is a bonanza for the middle class, and the extra income in tens  of millions of Americans' pockets is getting spent. Consumers are king  in America today, and fatter wallets translate into more store sales.  Home Depot and Lowe's recently recorded huge sales surges.
 The tax cut also added an additional $2,500 to a typical family of  four's after-tax incomes. So after taking account of taxes owed, the  income of most middle-class families is up closer to $6,000 in the Trump  era.
 Memo to Pelosi: That ain't crumbs.

More at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...om_141497.html

----------


## Zippyjuan

> How much of the monetary gains from the Trump economic speedup have  gone to the middle class? If you ask Democratic senators and  presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Bernie  Sanders, the answer to that question is ... almost none.
>  " [Donald] Trump's economy is great for billionaires, not for working  people," Sanders likes to say. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi  grouses that under the Trump agenda, "the rich get richer, and everyone  else is stuck paying the bill."
>  Uh-huh. That's been the standard liberal riff for the last couple of  years as they try to explain how a president who they said would create a  second Great Depression has created boom times with the lowest  inflation and unemployment in half a century.
>  But not a word of this is true, according to new Census Bureau data  on the incomes of America's middle class. This study by former Census  Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found  gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or  average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into  office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about  $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017).
>  Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over  $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That  was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the  extra income is about three times larger.
>  These gains under Trump are so large in such a short period of time  that I asked the Sentier Research team to triple-check the numbers. Sure  enough, on each occasion, the income swing was $5,000.
>  This is a bonanza for the middle class, and the extra income in tens  of millions of Americans' pockets is getting spent. Consumers are king  in America today, and fatter wallets translate into more store sales.  Home Depot and Lowe's recently recorded huge sales surges.
>  The tax cut also added an additional $2,500 to a typical family of  four's after-tax incomes. So after taking account of taxes owed, the  income of most middle-class families is up closer to $6,000 in the Trump  era.
>  Memo to Pelosi: That ain't crumbs.
> ...


They did change the way they calculate median income- the new formula is at least three percent more generous than the previous one. With the adjustment, median income is about $100 higher than it was in 1999. 





https://www.census.gov/library/stori...from-2017.html

----------


## devil21

> Just stop it. You are not cool unless hate on America.


You've made the full 180 over to neocon talking points.  "Hate 'Merica"  

Never thought I'd see 2007 join dates that equate criticizing the government with hating the country itself but here we are...GWB's happy days are here again.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> You've made the full 180 over to neocon talking points.  "Hate 'Merica"  
> 
> Never thought I'd see 2007 join dates that equate criticizing the government with hating the country itself but here we are...GWB's happy days are here again.


LOL

We have people here who actually hate America and cheer for its demise.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> They did change the way they calculate median income- the new formula is at least three percent more generous than the previous one. With the adjustment, median income is about $100 higher than it was in 1999. 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.census.gov/library/stori...from-2017.html


That doesn't affect the rate of increase which is higher under Trump.

----------


## devil21

> LOL
> 
> We have people here who actually hate America and cheer for its demise.


Only idiots equate the success of the federal government corporation called the United States with the success of the land mass called America.  Oh, and authority-worshippers who want a ruler to tell them what to do.  We have some of those here too, don't we?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Only idiots equate the success of the federal government corporation called the United States with the success of the land mass called America.  Oh, and authority-worshippers who want a ruler to tell them what to do.  We have some of those here too, don't we?


I said nothing about the government, we have people here who hate America and Americans and cheer for our destruction.

----------


## phill4paul

> You've made the full 180 over to neocon talking points.  "Hate 'Merica"  
> 
> Never thought I'd see 2007 join dates that equate criticizing the government with hating the country itself but here we are...GWB's happy days are here again.


 I'm celebrating the fact that Americans are back at work and not sucking at the government tit. Just terrible, I know.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I'm celebrating the fact that Americans are back at work and not sucking at the government tit. Just terrible, I know.


The hate America and Americans club is coming out of the closet more these days, they still pretend it's just about the government but it is increasingly obvious that it isn't.

----------


## phill4paul

> The hate America and Americans club is coming out of the closet more these days, they still pretend it's just about the government but it is increasingly obvious that it isn't.


  Truth. It's that winning libertarian personality that has grown their movement and won them so many elections.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Truth. It's that winning libertarian personality that has grown their movement and won them so many elections.


Leftarians (those that aren't wolves in sheep's clothing) are like Jonah, they don't want Nineveh (America) to repent and be saved, they want to watch it burn instead, so they do anything they can to stay a small movement of losers.

----------


## devil21

The Federal Reserve is injecting many billions of dollars daily via secret repo operations.  Chooglin' along indeed!





> Truth. It's that winning libertarian personality that has grown their movement and won them so many elections.


Interesting comment there, seeing how the original phil actually was a libertarian and would have never referred to "their" and "them".

----------


## Swordsmyth

The Commerce Department released its “Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services”  this morning. This is the first estimate for the month that will get  revised – often substantially – in following months as more data become  available. And the report said that in September compared to September  last year:

Total retail & food services (restaurants, cafes, etc.) rose 4.1%.Retail sales without food services rose 4.0%.Food services sales rose 4.9%.Retail sales without gasoline sales rose 4.7%.Retail sales without gasoline, motor vehicles & parts sales rose 4.5%.Sales at non-store retailers (ecommerce, vending machines,  door-to-door, telemarketing, home parties such as Tupperware, etc.) rose  12.9%. 
 So, a 4.0% year-over-year increase in retail sales is pretty strong –  and about in line what you’d expect from the mythic figure, the  indomitable American consumer. It’s the second highest percentage  increase (behind August’s 4.6%) since October last year:

 But retail sales are very seasonal. And September sales, which always  follow the back-to-school burst in August, always drop sharply from  August, every year. So, here are the not-seasonally adjusted retail  sales in billions of dollars. I marked the last six Septembers with red  dots:

 Not seasonally adjusted, retail sales in September fell 8.9% from  August. Last year at this time, they fell 8.3%. In 2017, they fell 4.5%,  in 2016, 5.4%. But in 2013, they fell 9.2%.
*Labor Day weekend is big for retail, but it was pulled into August.* 

 This year, Labor Day fell on September 2, and August 31 was a  Saturday, which for accounting purposes in many industries pulled Labor  Day sales into August. This includes auto dealers which closed their  books on the first working day after the weekend, which was Tuesday,  September 3.
 Those sales showed up in August and not in September. This is not  unusual. It happened in 2013, as well, when Labor Day Monday fell on  September 2, and August books were closed on September 3, pulling all  those sales into August. Hence the 9.2% drop from August to September  2013. In quarterly reporting, this noise disappears.
*These effects of seasonality and calendar are well known (except among reporters).* 

 To tone down the noise of these seasonal and calendar effects, the  Commerce Department comes up with large “seasonal adjustments.” For  example, the seasonal adjustments reduced the 8.9% drop in September  from August to a 0.3% drop “seasonally adjusted.” This 0.3% drop is what  the media got hung up about.
*Not seasonally adjusted*, retail sales in September  were $436.7 billion, down 8.9% from August’s $479.6 billion. That’s a  seasonal drop from month to month of $43 billion.
*After seasonal adjustments*, sales in September were suddenly $460.4 billion, down 0.3% from August’s seasonally adjusted $461.9 billion.
*How huge are the seasonal adjustments*? In September:  $23.7 billion. This is the difference between the estimate of actual  sales in September ($436.7 billion) and seasonally adjusted sales  ($460.4 billion).
 If these seasonal adjustments are off just a little bit, if for  example, the seasonal adjustment should have been $2 billion more, a  tiny amount compared to the magnitude of retail sales, retail sales  would have risen +0.2%, instead of falling -0.3%.
 In other words, seasonally adjusted month-to-month retail sales  growth is only as good as the seasonal adjustments. It should either be  ignored or be looked at after studying the other data first, as we have  done a little bit of here.
 Retail sales don’t turn around on a dime — unless there is a huge  national crisis. And to claim, based on seasonally adjusted  month-to-month data, that retail sales turned around from strong growth  in August to sudden decline in September because the consumer suddenly  got “shaky” is nonsense.
 And if the financial media – which should know better – base  headlines on this seasonally adjusted month-to-month retail sales growth  figure, and if they extrapolate grander themes for the overall economy  and even monetary policy – such as rate cuts – from that singular  seasonally adjusted month-to-month retails sales growth figure, it’s  either braindead reporting or willfully manipulative reporting with an  agenda behind it (such as clamoring for a rate cut).


More at: https://wolfstreet.com/2019/10/16/br...-retail-sales/

----------


## Swordsmyth

*More winning.  President Trump is reducing the Debt to GDP ratio  indicating that under his Presidency the economy is growing faster than  the national debt!* According Rex Sinquefield at Forbes in October of 2016:
*The Obama recovery of the last seven years remains the worst in postwar American history.*  Average gross domestic product (GDP) growth since the bottom of the  recession in 2009 was barely above 2.1% per year. The average since 1949  is well above 4% per year during the previous 10 expansions.
 This result is not just bad, it is catastrophic. The average American  should not be wondering if his or her income is a bit above or below  2007 levels. Just by historical averages, the average American should be  20% better off than in 2007. And this slow growth is settling in as a  permanent new-abnormal.
 I believe the root cause of abysmal growth is the huge tax increases  imposed by Obama and the Democrats in Congress since 2008. The most  harmful were the increase in the capital gains tax from 15 to 20  percent, the increase in top bracket income from 35 to 39.6 percent, and  the new tax of 3.8 percent on investment income in the Affordable Care  Act (ACA). The massive increase in regulatory burden through the ACA and  Dodd-Frank bills are also crushing, but unfortunately are harder to measure.President Obama never reached an annual GDP Growth rate of more than  3.0%. No President over the past century had not ever been held to GDP  growth rates of less than 3.0% until Obama.  But President Trump  averaged a better than 3% GDP last year.
 

 More impressively, when comparing the amount of US Debt from the government’s daily report of debt to the amount of GDP from the current GDP release, the amount of debt to GDP is decreasing under President Trump (a very good thing).

*The ratio of debt to GDP is decreasing drastically – from  105.3% when Obama was President to 103.2% at the end of the 2nd Quarter  of 2019!* (Note that *Obama increased the Debt to GDP ratio by 30% over his first two years* and *more than 40%* during his two terms in office. Also, under Obama the Fed kept rates at 0% for his first seven years!


*If President Trump had the same luxury of a 0% interest rate as  Obama the Debt to GDP would be much less because US debt would be $1  trillion less.* *More than one trillion of the two trillion increase in debt under President Trump is due to the Fed’s increase in rates.* 
*Winning, Winning, Winning!* *If not for the Fed, the US would be paying down national debt.* *Despite this, the economy is getting stronger and stronger.*https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...-than-us-debt/

----------


## Swordsmyth

Jobless claims unexpectedly fall to 212,000

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Big  spending is supposed to stimulate economy in a big way, this is bit surprising:

Oct 30, 2019

*

GDP: 1.9%...

China Trolls... 

Trump on 1.9% GDP in 2012: 'Economy is in deep trouble'...




Related

*  *Trump assumes Obama's mantle as the 'king of debt'*

                           By Armstrong Williams
       10/29/19

When President Obama nearly doubled the national debt,   raising it by almost $9 trillion during his two terms in office,   Republicans howled in alarm. Although interest rates were being kept   artificially low by the U.S. Federal Reserve and global central banks in   the aftermath of the Great Recession, there certainly would be a   reckoning down the road when the bill came due. 
So incensed were  Americans by the profligate borrowing by the federal  government that it  caused a political revolt in the form of the Tea Party,   whose politicians took Congress by storm and demanded accountability   for the fiscal irresponsibility in which our country had engaged. Tea   Party-affiliated politicians urged congressional Republicans to be   willing to shut down the government to force congressional Democrats and   President Obama to agree to deep cuts in spending and to repeal the   Affordable Care Act. 
And, for the first time in decades, Congress  refused to pass a  continuing resolution (in lieu of a final budget  deal) to raise the  debt ceiling, which forced a government shutdown in 2013. 

One  of the central tenets of the Republican Party has been a commitment  to  fiscal conservatism, which consists of three central prongs: low  taxes,  low debt and small government. America’s burgeoning national  debt,  sprawling government bureaucracy and incredible burden of  liabilities —  that is, promises to pay in the future — seem to belie  this set of  ethics. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...e-king-of-debt  

*

**FEDERAL SPENDING SMASHES RECORDS
BUDGET DEFICIT WIDENS 23% 


*

----------


## Swordsmyth

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October as the U.S. economy  overcame the weight of the GM autoworkers’ strike and created jobs at a  pace well above expectations.
Even with a decline of 42,000 in the  motor vehicles and parts industry, the pace of new jobs well exceeded  the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The loss  of jobs came due to the General Motors strike that has since been  settled. That 42,000 job loss itself was less than the 50,000 or more  that many economists had been anticipating.

The  unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%, in line with estimates, but  remains around the lowest in 50 years. A more encompassing measure that  includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for  economic reasons also edged up to 7%.
The unemployment rate for  African Americans nudged down to a record low 5.4%. Also, the total  employment level as measured in the household survey jumped to 158.5  million, also a new high.
The pace of average hourly earnings  picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain, also in line  with estimates. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
“This  report is yet another sign that the economy is still strong right now  and adds to a list of indicators that are looking optimistic of late,”  said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. “The vigor of  this labor market, along with a more positive housing market and solid  Q3 GDP, should offer some welcome reassurance.”


Along with the better-than-expected performance in October, previous  months’ counts were revised considerably higher. August’s initial  168,000 estimate came all the way up to 219,000 while September’s jumped  from 136,000 to 180,000.
Together, the new estimates added 95,000  positions for the two-month period, bringing the three-month average to  176,000, which is well above the pace needed to keep the unemployment  rate around its current level.
For the year, monthly job creation now averages 167,000 compared with 223,000 in 2018.


At the industry level, the biggest job creation  came in food services and drinking establishments, which added 48,000.  While those positions are generally associated with lower wages, they  also can reflect consumer demand and the willingness to spend  discretionary money. The industry has seen a surge in job creation as of  late, with the past three months averaging 38,000 compared with 16,000  in the first seven months of this year.
Professional and business  services added 22,000 and health care rose 15,000, part of a gain of  402,000 for that industry over the past year.
Social assistance  increased by 20,000 while financial activities rose by 16,000, bringing  to 108,000 the total Wall Street jobs added over the past year.
Job  losses came in manufacturing (-36,000) as part of the GM strike, and  the federal government, which subtracted 17,000 because 20,000 workers  hired for Census duties finished their work.
The total employment level in the household survey reached another record high, swelling by 241,000 to 158.5 million.
The  labor force expanded by 325,000 to 164.4 million and the labor force  participation rate edged higher to 63.3%. Those counted as not in the  labor force declined by 118,000 to nearly 95.5 million.
After previously sitting at a record low, the unemployment rate for Asians jumped 0.4 percentage points to 2.9%.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/jobs...ober-2019.html

----------


## phill4paul

> Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October as the U.S. economy  overcame the weight of the GM autoworkers’ strike and created jobs at a  pace well above expectations.
> Even with a decline of 42,000 in the  motor vehicles and parts industry, the pace of new jobs well exceeded  the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The loss  of jobs came due to the General Motors strike that has since been  settled. That 42,000 job loss itself was less than the 50,000 or more  that many economists had been anticipating.
> 
> The  unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%, in line with estimates, but  remains around the lowest in 50 years. A more encompassing measure that  includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for  economic reasons also edged up to 7%.
> The unemployment rate for  African Americans nudged down to a record low 5.4%. Also, the total  employment level as measured in the household survey jumped to 158.5  million, also a new high.
> The pace of average hourly earnings  picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain, also in line  with estimates. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
> “This  report is yet another sign that the economy is still strong right now  and adds to a list of indicators that are looking optimistic of late,”  said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. “The vigor of  this labor market, along with a more positive housing market and solid  Q3 GDP, should offer some welcome reassurance.”
> 
> 
> ...


   These are terrible figures. I was really hoping to quit my job and apply for "basic income." Drats.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> These are terrible figures. I was really hoping to quit my job and apply for "basic income." Drats.


 @TheTexan will be crushed.

----------


## TheTexan

> @TheTexan will be crushed.


It's a setback, but what doesn't kill us just makes us vote even harder

----------


## Swordsmyth

*More than 5.8 million individuals dropped off food stamps since  President Donald Trump completed his first full month in office,  according to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of  Agriculture (USDA).* The most recent USDA data  shows that 5,896,383 people discontinued their participation in the  nation’s food stamp program— also known as the Supplemental Nutrition  Assistance Program (SNAP)— since February 2017 when Trump completed his  first month as president.
 Individual and household participation in SNAP had consistently  declined overall since 2013 back when the Obama administration was in  power, and enrollment in the program reached its highest point in U.S. history.
   Food stamp enrollment plummeted after states passed  reform measures to curb dependency on welfare, requiring food stamp  recipients to work, volunteer, attend school, or receive job training  for 20 hours per week.
  Under the Trump administration, those numbers have gone down even further.
 There are currently 36,401,408 individuals and 18,462,672 households enrolled in the food stamp program. Still, USDA officials said those  numbers are “preliminary” due to the 2018 government shutdown, which  affected food stamp administration at the beginning of 2019.
 When Trump took office, 42,297,791 individuals and 20,937,903 households were enrolled in food stamps.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...s-under-trump/

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Time will tell how much validity is in critics claims about 'sugar high economy' fueled by artifical fed actions and big gummit deficit/debt spending with high risk of crash but there are tangible benefits in job market  that MAGA team is trying to convert into political gain in terms of increased support from minorities:


Jonathan Ernst / Reuters                              President Donald  Trump speaks during a "Black Voices for Trump" campaign event in  Atlanta, Nov. 8.
 ATLANTA — President Donald Trump  brought some of his best-known black  supporters to Atlanta to launch  the “Black Voices for Trump" coalition  on Friday, lavishing praise on  his allies and decrying the Democratic  Party as being corrupt and  disloyal to black voters at a rally in a  midsize ballroom.
“The Democratic Party left you," he said. "Today we say: Welcome to the Republican Party."
Supporters  interpreted Trump’s speech — and those from his allies that  preceded it  — as a challenge to attract black men based on the  president’s record  on jobs, criminal justice, and what some of his  strongest black  supporters say is years of neglect and failed policies  from the  Democratic Party.
The Black MAGA Faithful Think Donald Trump Tailored His 2020 Pitch To Black Men, And They’re Kind Of Feeling It

----------


## The Rebel Poet

> You've made the full 180 over to neocon talking points.  "Hate 'Merica"  
> 
> Never thought I'd see 2007 join dates that equate criticizing the government with hating the country itself but here we are...GWB's happy days are here again.


You must spred some reputation around... 



> Only idiots equate the success of the federal government corporation called the United States with the success of the land mass called America.  Oh, and authority-worshippers who want a ruler to tell them what to do.  We have some of those here too, don't we?


YMSSRA

----------


## Swordsmyth

*The numbers:*  IHS Markit said its U.S. flash manufacturing sector purchasing managers index rose to 52.2 in November from 51.3 in October. This is the fastest rate since April.
 Meanwhile  the U.S. flash services sector purchasing managers index in November  rose to 51.6 from 50.6. This is the quickest expansion since July. 
 Any  reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. The flash estimate is  typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total survey responses each  month.
*What happened:*  Manufacturers  registered a rise in new orders in November. There was a small upturn  in service sector new business also. Both manufacturers and service  providers indicated a rise in workforce numbers.
*What IHS Markit said:*  “A welcome upturn in the headline index from the flash PMI adds to  evidence that the worst of the economy’s recent soft patch may be behind  us,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.


More at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ber-2019-11-22

----------


## Swordsmyth

*The American economy grew at a faster pace this summer than estimated earlier.* Gross domestic product grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate for the  third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday in its second  estimate of economic growth. That is a substantial boost from the 1.9  percent in the earlier estimate.


More at: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...third-quarter/

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## Swordsmyth

*Jobless claims unexpectedly plunged in the week ended November 23, indicating that the American labor market remains strong.* Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 15,000 to  213,000, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists had been  looking for a smaller decline.
 The prior week’s claims were revised up by 1,000 to 228,000.
   The drop in claims is significant because claims had been rising in  the two prior weeks. Many economists expect claims, which are a proxy  for layoffs, to climb because they view employment as likely to peak  soon given the extremely low levels of unemployment and sluggishness in  business investment and the manufacturing sector.
 Jobless claims can be volatile week-to-week. Economists prefer to  look at the four-week average of claims as a more reliable indicator of  the labor market. This figure moved down by 1,000 to 220,000.


https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...000-to-213000/

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## Swordsmyth

After unexpectedly sliding in September, Durable Goods New Orders were  expected to contract further in preliminary October data but instead  surprised bigly to the upside, rising 0.6% MoM (-0.9% exp) after a  downward-revised 1.4% drop in September.

Additionally, the proxy for capital expenditures, Capital Goods  Shipments Non-Defense Ex-Air, rose0.8% MoM (-0.2% exp) - the biggest  jump since Jan 2019 (after 4 months of contraction)...

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...x-proxy-surges

----------


## Swordsmyth

Call it the Back-up Plan.
For the past couple of years, the  potential for an economic downturn has kept jittery Democrats from  getting too nervous about the 2020 presidential election. Even if Robert  Mueller and his Russia investigation didn't get President Trump — and  now the Ukraine impeachment investigation — then the American economy  surely would. There was no way four years of Trump's trade wars and  general incompetence wouldn't result in a nasty recession and a one-term  Trump presidency, right?
Now it's looking more and more like the  back-up plan might need a back-up plan. Wall Street economists and  forecasting models don't see more than a one-in-three chance  of an economic downturn next year. There's even a reasonable scenario  of an economic upturn. In its outlook for next year, Goldman Sachs  predicts economic growth accelerating from its current 2 percent pace to  2.5 percent, thanks to a quieting of the trade war and the lagging  impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recession odds: Just 20 percent,  which is pretty standard in any given year.
But this is the part  of the forecast that should really worry Democratic campaign  strategists: "Solid growth should mean another year of above-trend job  gains. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to levels last seen  during the Korean War, bringing a further pickup in wage growth to 3.5  percent." So not only rising take-home pay with low inflation, but a  jobless rate so historically low that even the oldest boomers have  little memory of such a time. Look, if you're a president who promised  to make America great again, and the unemployment rate falls to its  lowest level since the early 1950s, it arguably looks like you're making  American great again.
Of course, this is just one forecast. But  even if next year is just pretty much like this year, not much better or  worse, it would still mean an economy experiencing a record-long  expansion that would be well into its 11th year by Election Day 2020.  Not that 2020 Democratic nominees will lack a counter-argument. They  will likely argue that most Americans aren't benefiting from the  expansion. As South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg said at the last  Democratic debate, "In an economy where even when the Dow Jones is  looking good, far too many Americans have to fight like hell just to  hold on to what they've got."
The problem with such an approach is  that even though Democrats are loathe to admit it, this is an expansion  that's finally helping a broad swath of Americans. Wages are actually  growing fastest at the bottom  right now, not at the top, and that reality is playing a big role in  keeping the expansion on track. Nor should Democrats dismiss the low  jobless rate. It's not some phony number. For instance: Employment for  prime-age workers has now completely recovered  from the 2008 financial crisis even though many economists fretted it  never would. To many Americans, the Trump economy is going to seem a lot  better than the Obama economy.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-run...123002790.html

----------


## Swordsmyth

Santa left an early present in Donald Trump’s stocking — via the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Job creation in November hit a one-year high and marked only the third  time in 2019 that the US economy added more than 200,000 jobs in a  month. The unemployment rate remained low, although the civilian  participation rate dropped slightly.

Part of the gain came from the end of an auto-worker strike, but even  without that, job creation would have been relatively robust and well  over 200K:

Total  nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the  unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of  Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health  care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in  manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
Both  the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed  persons, at 5.8 million, changed little in November. (See table A-1.)
Among  the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.2  percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.0 percent), Whites  (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics  (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in November. (See tables A-1,  A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless  for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was essentially unchanged in  November and accounted for 20.8 percent of the unemployed. (See table  A12.)
The labor force participation rate was little changed at  63.2 percent in November. The employment-population ratio was 61.0  percent for the third consecutive month. (See table A-1.)The  revisions also added to the holiday joy, boosting previous job creation  numbers by 41,000 over the past two months. That puts the three-month  average for job creation at a respectable growth level of 205,000. That  also more or less negates the impact of the strike, which took place  entirely within that three-month period, meaning job growth has returned  to a healthier level at the close of 2019.
Wage growth also  continued its winning streak. Average hourly earnings in November went  up by seven cents, which annualizes to wage growth of 3.1%, well ahead  of inflation. That means consistent, if not spectacular, growth in  purchasing power for working families, a point that will not be lost on  those families if that continues through next November.
Another  hint of better job growth came in the part-time numbers, which declined  across the board but especially in the economic-reasons categories.  Those working part-time because of slack economic conditions dropped by  121,000, while those who could only find part-time work dropped by  another 19,000. The level of reported discouraged workers dropped by  16,000 from October and has fallen by 128,000 over the past year,  although those numbers are _not_ seasonally adjusted.

This might be the least equivocal jobs report we have seen in quite a  long time, maybe even since 2017. It comes at a particularly good time  for Trump, not just in the election cycle but also in contrast to  impeachment. We can expect the White House to argue that this shows  Trump is focused on the people while the Democrats in Congress are  focusing only on themselves — and if that’s not a message that’s already  out by the time this post goes up, someone in the White House comms  center needs to find a new job.

More at: https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morri...ber-best-year/

----------


## Swordsmyth

the year-over-year wage growth is 3.1% with non-supervisory wages growing double the rate of supervisory wages.

Also in November, 1.2 million persons were marginally attached to the  labor force. This is a reduction of 432,000 from a year earlier. Those  additional jobs are not counted in any labor report because those  returning workers were previously not looking for employment; they came  off the sidelines and entered the workforce.  AMERICA IS WORKING AGAIN !

More at: https://theconservativetreehouse.com...inflation-1-4/

----------


## Zippyjuan

> Santa left an early present in Donald Trump’s stocking — via the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job creation in November hit a one-year high and marked only the third time in 2019 that the US economy added more than 200,000 jobs in a month. The unemployment rate remained low, although the civilian participation rate dropped slightly.


Keeping in mind that over 40,000 of those jobs were striking auto workers returning to their jobs. But it still is a decent number. 



On the other hand, US manufacturing declined for the fourth consecutive month. 

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news...covery/568335/




> The U.S. manufacturing sector *contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November,* according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing manager's index (PMI). A PMI of 50 or higher indicates growth in manufacturing, while a level below 50 indicates a contraction. ​The PMI came in at 48.1%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from October's 48.3% reading, missing a target of 49.2% expected by a survey of Bloomberg economists.

----------


## Swordsmyth

Skimming through the mainstream media websites, one would find  numerous articles decrying the plight of US farmers caught in the middle  of the US-China trade war, such as these: "Farmers’ Despair Pushes States to Act", "Farm Bankruptcies Rise Again", "Amid Trump Tariffs, Farm Bankruptcies And Suicides Rise." However, there may be more here than meets the conventional eye.
  As Commodore Research managing  director Jeffrey Landsberg writes, US farm income in 2019 is on pace  for the highest income seen in six Years.  This, Landsberg continues,  "is very significant as US farmers are not faring nearly as poorly as  many pundits and media outlets continue to state.  *As a result, US farmers collectively have not been in any real uproar and are not jeopardizing Trump’s re-election chances.*"
  The surging farm net income stands in stark contrast with the  documented spike in bankruptcies, which has prompted some to whether  this is a case of a handful of farmers pocketing the majority of the  upside, or merely more farmers taking advantage of the political climate  and filing bankruptcy for insurance or other tangential purposes.
_We present Commodore's full note below:_

  Extremely noteworthy to us is that the United States Department of Agriculture recently announced that *US net farm income this year will climb to its highest level since 2013.* This  is very significant as US farmers are not faring nearly as poorly as  many pundits and media outlets continue to often report. As a result, US  farmers collectively have not been in any real uproar and are not  jeopardizing Trump’s re-election chances.
  US net farm income this year is on pace to total $92.5 billion. This  would mark a year-on-year increase of $8.5 billion (10%) and would mark  the highest income since 2013’s record $123.7 billion.



Federal government direct farm program payments are contributing to a large amount of the income. *Federal  government direct farm program payments are expected to end this year  at a very robust $22.4 billion, which is $8.7 billion (64%) more than  was issued in 2018.* 
  This includes the Market Facilitation Program payments, which is the  official name for President’s Trump tariff payments that are going to  farmers to make up for the weakness in exports. The $22.4 billion in  federal government direct farm program payments marks a record for this  decade (and includes $14.5 billion in Trump’s Market Facilitation  Program payments).



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/co...east-year-2013

Even without the government money farms aren't doing so bad, even with all the bad weather and other bad things happening.

----------


## Zippyjuan

Noting that about a quarter of net farm income was from government subsidies.

----------


## devil21

It may be choogling along but it won't be choogling along in Celadon or Henderson transport trucks.

Largest truck transport company Celadon files CH11 bankruptcy amid manufacturing recession
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/cela...tcy-shuts-down

Henderson Truck Lines files bankruptcy
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/hend...-11-bankruptcy

----------


## Swordsmyth

In July and August the U.S. was heading into a recession according to  the media.  The Washington Post was at the forefront of the recession  narrative with multiple articles predicting certain doom for the U.S.  economy…. except there was a problem. All of the economic data would not  support their predictions.  Things only got better.
 The media gnashed their horrible teeth and stomped their horrible  feet; alas Main Street continued to get stronger; wages higher,  unemployment lower, and more middle-class Americans gaining strength and  financial footing.  The media shouted at trees hoping and praying their  predictions would soon evidence and the economy would throw itself into  reverse.  Foiled again, it just never happened.  Democrats have  permanent frowns.
 Today the Washington Post  admits defeat, informs their audience that cheering for economic  collapse is futile, and states, reluctantly, the U.S. is unlikely to  enter a recession:

 The  U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth  after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two  trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession. This marks a dramatic turnaround in momentum since August, when some forecasters predicted a 50 percent chance of a downturn starting by the end of next year.
 […] The major fears in August were that businesses would continue  pulling back their spending, Trump would continue imposing tariffs, and  companies would soon turn around and ax employees. But that worst-case scenario didn’t materialize. Job gains exceeded expectations in October and November. (read more)



https://theconservativetreehouse.com...the-recession/

----------


## angelatc

> It may be choogling along but it won't be choogling along in Celadon or Henderson transport trucks.
> 
> Largest truck transport company Celadon files CH11 bankruptcy amid manufacturing recession
> https://www.ttnews.com/articles/cela...tcy-shuts-down
> 
> Henderson Truck Lines files bankruptcy
> https://www.ttnews.com/articles/hend...-11-bankruptcy


That's due to financial shenanigans, not lack of work.  I was lurking in a Facebook group created to help the Celadon drivers get home and such, and there were 6 - 7 trucking firms in there begging the drivers to come work for them.  I swear half of them had new jobs in under 2 hours.

But this isn't a recovery, or a boom.  This is the beginning of the end.  We're already at a point where savings is a negative return if you factor in inflation.  Interest rates are too low, and the stock market is overvalued.

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Which group is fiscally smarter:

a- globalist neocons inspired GOP Bush's supporters from 2003-08 ( before artificially propped up wars QE inflated economy bubble burst) or 

b- GOPA wing-Deep neocons inspired MAGA wing QE inflated propped up bubble supporters in 2019?

*Why Are Central Banks Panicking?*
Dec 9, 2019


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFgVUWJZLAQ

Still not conviced that Wall Street is being manipulated by deep neocons to support Iran war fantasies modeling after Iraq war model pre subprime bubble.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> That's due to financial shenanigans, not lack of work.  I was lurking in a Facebook group created to help the Celadon drivers get home and such, and there were 6 - 7 trucking firms in there begging the drivers to come work for them.  I swear half of them had new jobs in under 2 hours.
> 
> But this isn't a recovery, or a boom.  This is the beginning of the end.  We're already at a point where savings is a negative return if you factor in inflation.  Interest rates are too low, and the stock market is overvalued.


Things are beginning to turn around.

----------


## devil21

> That's due to financial shenanigans, not lack of work.  I was lurking in a Facebook group created to help the Celadon drivers get home and such, and there were 6 - 7 trucking firms in there begging the drivers to come work for them.  I swear half of them had new jobs in under 2 hours.
> 
> But this isn't a recovery, or a boom.  This is the beginning of the end.  We're already at a point where savings is a negative return if you factor in inflation.  Interest rates are too low, and the stock market is overvalued.


There definitely is a manufacturing recession and rail freight traffic continues down.  Both of those metrics are relayed directly to me by people in industry that would know.  At some point that must translate to less truck traffic.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> That's due to financial shenanigans, not lack of work.  I was lurking in a Facebook group created to help the Celadon drivers get home and such, and there were 6 - 7 trucking firms in there begging the drivers to come work for them.  I swear half of them had new jobs in under 2 hours.
> 
> But this isn't a recovery, or a boom.  This is the beginning of the end.  We're already at a point *where savings is a negative return if you factor in inflation.*  Interest rates are too low, and the stock market is overvalued.


Banks have always paid less then the rate of inflation on deposits. A lender wants a profit.

----------


## Swordsmyth

U.S. manufacturing output rebounded more than expected in November, as the end of an almost six-week strike at General Motors plants boosted auto production.
The  Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that manufacturing production rose 1.1%  last month after a downwardly revised 0.7% fall in October. Industrial  output also rose 1.1% in November after a downwardly revised drop of  0.9% in October.
Excluding  motor vehicles and parts, overall industrial production and  manufacturing output in November rose 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

There was a 12.4% jump in the production of motor vehicles and parts in  November. Overall, production rose 2.1% for consumer goods and 1.7% for  business equipment, the Fed said. Utilities output increased 2.9%  compared to a decline of 2.4% in the previous month.

With overall industrial output rising, capacity utilization, a measure  of how fully firms are using their resources, increased 0.7 percentage  point to 77.3% in November from a downwardly revised 76.6% in October.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/us-i...mber-2019.html

----------


## Swordsmyth

One month after US job openings unexpectedly tumbled to an 18 month  low, while the drop in the quits level confirmed the US labor market had  cooled off substantially, moments ago the BLS reported that in October,  there was a substantial rebound in the labor market from the  perspective of Janet Yellen's favorite indicator, the JOLTS report.
  According to the BLS, in October the total number of job openings  rebounded sharply, and after last month's 277K plunge to 7.024, in  October the number of job opening jumped by 235K to 7.267K, the biggest  one-month increase since March, and well above the 7.009MM expected.

  The largest increases in job openings levels were in retail trade  (+125,000), finance and insurance (+56,000), and durable goods  manufacturing (+50,000). The largest decreases in job openings were in  nondurable goods manufacturing (-36,000), information (-33,000), and  arts, entertainment, and recreation (-26,000). The number of job  openings was little changed in all four regions.

  Thanks to the latest rebound in job openings, there have now been  more US job openings than unemployed workers for a record 20 consecutive  months, and in October there were 1.4 million Job Openings (7.267MM)  than unemployed workers (5.811MM).



Finally, according to the final closely watched JOLTS metric, the  so-called "take this job and shove it" indicator - the total level of  "quits" which shows worker confidence that they can leave their current  job and find a better paying job elsewhere - rose for the first time  after two months of declines, and in October quits rose by 41K to  3.512MM from 3.471MM.



Quits increased in other services (+66,000) and educational services  (+12,000). Quits decreased in retail trade (-63,000) and in durable  goods manufacturing (-21,000).
  As of October, the Beveridge curve looked as follows:

  During an expansion, the job openings rate is high and the  unemployment rate is low moving to points along the curve up and to the  left. During a contraction, the job openings rate is low and the  unemployment rate is high moving to points along the curve down and to  the right. *A shift in the Beveridge curve can indicate a  structural shift in the economy due to industry-based structural  mismatch and geography-based structural mismatch.* For example,  if the job openings rate and the unemployment rate are both high, this  could shift the entire curve up and to the right. From the start of the  most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the  series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate  declined and the unemployment rate rose.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jo...hiring-tumbles

----------


## specsaregood

All I know is that my business is up a solid 10% over last year (with a couple more checks that should roll in before EOY).
Up 31% from Obama's last year in office, with no increased investment, no increased rates, and less actual working hours.   Add on top of that the tax cuts that were very beneficial to small business owners like myself.   I'll take the Trump economy over the Obama one.

----------


## oyarde

> All I know is that my business is up a solid 10% over last year (with a couple more checks that should roll in before EOY).
> Up 31% from Obama's last year in office, with no increased investment, no increased rates, and less actual working hours.   Add on top of that the tax cuts that were very beneficial to small business owners like myself.   I'll take the Trump economy over the Obama one.


Obama economy is a food stamp and govt pd phone economy .

----------


## angelatc

> Banks have always paid less then the rate of inflation on deposits. A lender wants a profit.


That's just simply not true.

----------


## Swordsmyth

After a surprise slowdown in October, analysts were hopeful of a  rebound in incomes and spending of Americans in November and they got  just that.

 *US Personal Incomes rose 0.5% MoM* (dramatically better than the 0.0% in October - revised up to +0.1% - and expectations of a 0.3% rise) *US Personal Spending rose 0.4% MoM* (printing as expected and accelerating from October's +0.3%)



On a year-over-year basis, both incomes and spending re-accelerated but it was *incomes that outperformed - up 4.9% YoY, the highest since Dec 2018*



The specifics show private workers doing best:

 	Private worker wages up 5.7% Y/Y 	Government worker wages up 3.4% Y/Y

  The income over spending gap means that savings rose in November (personal savings rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9%)...



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...spending-picks

----------


## phill4paul

Cha-cha-cha CHOOGLIN'!

----------


## eleganz

> There definitely is a manufacturing recession and rail freight traffic continues down.  Both of those metrics are relayed directly to me by people in industry that would know.  At some point that must translate to less truck traffic.


Don't know where this logic is coming from.  Manufacturing being down does not necessarily mean trucking activity will go down.  

You need trucks to do more than just domestically produced goods.

----------


## devil21

> Don't know where this logic is coming from.  Manufacturing being down does not necessarily mean trucking activity will go down.  
> 
> You need trucks to do more than just domestically produced goods.


Both manufacturing and rail traffic are down.  My rail source (a train conductor) said Amazon is using rail more now, presumably for imported goods, and without that the drop in rail traffic would be even larger than it is.  Unless imported goods traffic rises, which would be contrary to the narrative of reducing trade deficits with less imports, something's gotta give.  FedEx's recent quarterly numbers were bad and future guidance even worse.  Seems to me that freight companies starting to go under, rail traffic dropping, major shipper giving bad future guidance and a manufacturing recession in effect (from an executive at a direct competitor to 3M), indicates trucking activity is and will continue to slow.

----------


## Swordsmyth

https://twitter.com/AndyPuzder/statu...96725466537985

----------


## TheTexan

> Fewer Americans filed first time applications for  unemployment benefits last week, as the labor market appears to be  holding up at a stronger level than expected.
>  New applications for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000


Almost over 9000!!

----------


## Swordsmyth

Said the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday,  “total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the  unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent.” It also noted that the  long-term unemployment rate U6 (which includes discouraged workers no  longer seeking jobs and part-time workers seeking full-time employment)  dropped to the lowest level since the agency started reporting it in  1994.
 This followed the report from ADP on Wednesday that the U.S. economy added 261,700 jobs in December and caps off a remarkable year for the U.S. economy.
 For the year, new jobs rose by 2.1 million, following a gain of 2.7  million in 2018. Since Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. economy has added  more than seven million new jobs. The robust economy has simultaneously  reduced those on food stamps (SNAP) by four million while adding $5,000 a  year to the average American’s household income.

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...bor-department

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Bold QE management, credit also goes to widely respected Fed Reserve for patriotic cooperation with political leadership at a time when Iran wars clouds are on the horizon. Reminds of bold QE cooperation of then Fed Reserve Greenspan 2004-07 when Bush Cheney led economic stimulation greatly helped with early years of Iraqi freedom war support among public.
Thank you all involved for your patriotism!

*DOW 29,000...
FED KEEPS PUMPING...*

----------


## Swordsmyth

U.S. consumer prices barely rose in December  despite record low unemployment, indicating that inflationary pressures  remain very muted.
 The Labor Department’s Consumer price index increased 0.2 percent in  the last month of 2019, a slowing of the pace of prices from the 0.3  percent rise in November and the 0.4 percent rise in October. The  December figure was below the consensus forecast of a 0.3 percent gain.
   Core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, rose by just 0.1 percent.
  In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 2.3 percent. There  was no change to either the annual figure when food and energy are  excluded.
 That likely means that inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve’s  preferred metric, the personal consumption expenditure index minus food  and energy, is running below the Fed’s two percent target. Core PCE  inflation tends to run a half a percentage point below CPI.
 Last week’s employment report showed that wages had increased by less  than three percent on a 12-month basis in December despite unemployment  holding at 3.5 percent, a 50-year low. This suggests that the U.S.  labor market still has slack and undermines arguments from corporate  lobbyists in Washington, D.C. that businesses need higher levels of  immigration to fill jobs.
 Many items that attract a lot of attention from consumers are down in  price. Televisions are down more than 20 percent compared with a year  ago. Apparel prices have fallen 1.2 percent, with women’s clothing  prices down 2.2 percent. Major appliances are down 7 percent. Prices of  fresh fruits and vegetables are down 1.8 percent.
 The price of cars and trucks are up just one-tenth of a percentage  point. Even drug price inflation is low, with prices rising just 3  percent.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...tion-persists/

----------


## devil21

> Both manufacturing and rail traffic are down.  My rail source (a train conductor) said Amazon is using rail more now, presumably for imported goods, and without that the drop in rail traffic would be even larger than it is.  Unless imported goods traffic rises, which would be contrary to the narrative of reducing trade deficits with less imports, something's gotta give.  FedEx's recent quarterly numbers were bad and future guidance even worse.  Seems to me that freight companies starting to go under, rail traffic dropping, major shipper giving bad future guidance and a manufacturing recession in effect (from an executive at a direct competitor to 3M), indicates trucking activity is and will continue to slow.


https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/15/us...it-2011-level/

“Surprisingly Ugly” – US Freight Shipments Plunge At Fastest Rate Since 2009, Hit 2011 Levels


Some of y'all love to get your talking points from Yahoo.  I like to get my info from actual people in the industries.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/15/us...it-2011-level/
> 
> “Surprisingly Ugly” – US Freight Shipments Plunge At Fastest Rate Since 2009, Hit 2011 Levels
> 
> 
> Some of y'all love to get your talking points from Yahoo.  I like to get my info from actual people in the industries.


We don't need to ship as much freight around if we aren't importing as much Chinesium garbage.

You can cherry pick your data but it won't change the real situation.

----------


## devil21

> We don't need to ship as much freight around if we aren't importing as much Chinesium garbage.
> 
> You can cherry pick your data but it won't change the real situation.


Yeah, $#@! that whole money to pay rent and products to do stuff with thing.  I'm with ya.

----------


## Warlord



----------


## XNavyNuke

> And the other half was....?


*Fewer rail cars* 
Coal: -17651 cars
Farm Products/Food (not Grains): -153 cars
Forest Products: -929 cars
Grains: -3631 cars
Vehicles & Parts: -1762 cars
Nonmetallic Ores: -30 cars
Petroleum/Petroleum Products: -978 cars

Increased rail traffic across chemicals, ores & refined metals, and miscellaneous.

I'm assuming that since this was all available from the link I posted with my comment, that you just wanted to see if the gorilla had opposable thumbs and was able to type the information in requisite "spoon-fed" form.

XNN

----------


## Firestarter

For some unexplainable reason Rand Paul is missing from this list…
Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and Boeing thank President Donald!

Some people thought that President Donald couldn’t do it but he looks to outperform even his predecessors in boosting the profits of the military industrial complex. Some members of US Congress couldn’t be happier as this has boosted the value of their investment portfolio…

Since 27 December 2019, when an American contractor was killed by in Iraq, the aerospace and defence sector has outperformed all other sectors in the S&P 500: “_Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and L3 are each more than three standard deviations above their 50-day moving average_”.

In the 2020 Defense appropriations bill, the subcommittee approved $1.85 billion for 18 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircrafts and spare parts from Lockheed Martin. The subcommittee also recommended $1.1 billion for 6 P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Boeing.
Subcommittee member Sen. Roy Blunt owns $100,000 in Lockheed Martin stock. 
Subcommittee members Dianne Feinstein, Susan Collins, and Jerry Moran own a combined $750,000 in Boeing stock.

House Oversight and Reform Committee Government Operations Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Gerry Connolly owns $400,000 worth of stock in Leidos, which provides information technology services for the Defense Department for billions of dollars.

Following are the (other) US Representatives with $100,000 or more in defense stocks.

Steve Cohen - $415,000
Gerry Connolly - $400,000
Ro Khanna - $376,000
Greg Gianforte - $309,856
Debbie Dingell - $300,000

John Hoeven - $250,000
Phil Roe - $203,230
Fred Upton - $155,000
Bob Gibbs - $150,000
Joe Kennedy - $150,000
Kevin Hern - $150,000

Francis Rooney - $135,000
David Joyce - $100,000
David Price - $100,000
Thomas Suozzi - $100,000: https://prospect.org/power/the-membe...ofit-from-war/
(http://archive.is/E1Glm)

----------


## Swordsmyth

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria  Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.   Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now  the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital  investment.   *Good interview*:





The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.   However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors  taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade  dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
 The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing  investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for  re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A  corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely  different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys  time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the  place for investment stability.

(Table One Data Link)

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...oss-discusses/

----------


## tebowlives

Why is welfare much higher than before the crash? 
2007- 27 million on food stamps 
2020- 37.5 million. 

Population has grown ~9% but SNAP is ~40% higher than 2007

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Why is welfare much higher than before the crash? 
> 2007- 27 million on food stamps 
> 2020- 37.5 million. 
> 
> Population has grown ~9% but SNAP is ~40% higher than 2007


O'Bummer and the Demoncrats put lots of people on it.

Trump has the number dropping rapidly.

----------


## tebowlives

> O'Bummer and the Demoncrats put lots of people on it.


Agreed




> Trump has the number dropping rapidly.


lol No not rapidly. Mar-Oct numbers are the same

How about you just defend Trump when's done something right?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Agreed
> 
> 
> lol No not rapidly. Mar-Oct numbers are the same
> 
> How about you just defend Trump when's done something right?


He has done something, he cut lots of people off from food stamps just recently:

*Trump administration proposal endangers food stamps for millions*And he just kept out all legal immigrants likely to use welfare:

*In 5-4 decision Supreme rules Trump may deny green cards to indigents.*And it IS rapid:
*Food stamp rolls have declined by 7M under Trump even before reforms take effect*President Trump has overseen a drop of millions of food stamp  beneficiaries even before his administration's proposals for tightening  eligibility take effect. 
           The administration sees it as an accomplishment that food  stamp rolls have fallen by 17.5% as the economy has grown and said that  further reforms to the benefits will aid families. Democrats and  anti-poverty groups, though, warn that the administration's proposals  would further impoverish children, immigrants, and veterans.
           Trump's year-end list of "results"  included the boast that “nearly 7 million Americans have been lifted  off of food stamps," which the administration credited to people “being  lifted out of poverty as a result of today’s booming economy.”
           Indeed, the latest data  from the Department of Agriculture shows that 7.7 million fewer  Americans receive food stamps now than did when Trump entered the White  House. The Agriculture Department administers the Supplemental Nutrition  Assistance Program, or SNAP, but the actual food stamp benefits are  distributed by individual states.

More at: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...ms-take-effect

----------


## tebowlives

> He has done something, he cut lots of people off from food stamps just recently:
> 
> *Trump administration proposal endangers food stamps for millions*
> 
> 
> And he just kept out all legal immigrants likely to use welfare:
> 
> *In 5-4 decision Supreme rules Trump may deny green cards to indigents.*
> 
> ...


Sure he's done some decent things with the economy but its 4.5 million. The current total doesn't include roughly 1.4 mil on them in North Carolina.
Feb 2017 42.3 mil
Oct 2019 36.4 mil +1.4=37.8

https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites...Pmonthly-1.pdf

----------


## Warlord

*Peter Schiff: Market ‘Is an Inflation-Driven Bubble’ Ready to Pop

*https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-sc...driven-bubble/

GDP 2.3% is a 3 year low.

----------


## ThePaleoLibertarian

I think I've become a macro-skeptic. I don't think anyone has a particularly good theory on the business cycle. Microeconomics are understood quite well, particularly by Austrians, but macro seems to be a different story. Or maybe the the 2009 hyperinflation just wasn't _that._hyper. More of a sugar rush inflation.

----------


## phill4paul

> *Peter Schiff: Market ‘Is an Inflation-Driven Bubble’ Ready to Pop
> 
> *https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-sc...driven-bubble/
> 
> GDP 2.3% is a 3 year low.


Oh me gerds!  Panic! Panic NOW!   Peter Schiff. Lol.

----------


## AngryCanadian

> There is going to be a massive collapse with all the money the Fed has injected. This feels like 2000 when the tech stocks crashed. The only question is will it be before the election or after? is Trump being setup or is he complicit?


Pretty sure they might have set him up for the fall just blame the collapse on the republicans. If i remember correctly i remember CNN or MSNBC demanding a finical collapse just so they could blame it on Trump and the republicans.

----------


## Warlord

> Oh me gerds!  Panic! Panic NOW!   Peter Schiff. Lol.


Keep laughing, philly.

----------


## ThePaleoLibertarian

> Keep laughing, philly.


Schiff has been saying the same stuff for over a decade now. He was sure that Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation was inevitable circa 2009. That is a downright comical prediction. At the very, very least he's represented Austrians poorly by constantly preaching a collapse that never comes. Libertarians haven't called him on his $#@! and keep saying "just wait." Ridiculous.

----------


## Warlord

> Schiff has been saying the same stuff for over a decade now. He was sure that Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation was inevitable circa 2009. That is a downright comical prediction. At the very, very least he's represented Austrians poorly by constantly preaching a collapse that never comes. Libertarians haven't called him on his $#@! and keep saying "just wait." Ridiculous.


Schiff predicted the 2008 crash. They laughed at him then and they're laughing now. He speaks the truth. Sorry you don't like to hear it..

----------


## phill4paul

> Keep laughing, philly.


  All the way to the bank. Well, MY bank, not THE Bank.

----------


## ThePaleoLibertarian

> Schiff predicted the 2008 crash. They laughed at him then and they're laughing now. He speaks the truth. Sorry you don't like to hear it..


Schiff predicted 2008 because he's always predicting a crash. Eventually he was going to be right, but that doesn't imply any particular insight. Not to mention he wasn't the only one to make that prognostication. The real relevant prediction from Schiff was hyperinflation, which was supposed to come over a decade ago now. The only ones saying that was on the way was Schiff and some other collapsatarian Austrians, and they were all wrong and made themselves look foolish. 

People rightly call out people like Paul Krugman for all his bull$#@! predictions, but make excuses for a guy who was saying that the US would look like Zimbabwe before Obama's second term. How many times do these collapse fetishists have to fail before people start questioning them?

----------


## Ender



----------


## Swordsmyth

As a new year dawns in America, many of the nation’s manufacturing sectors are experiencing aggressive growth.  
In October, the largest U.S. manufacturer of solar panels, First Solar, announced production at its second U.S. plant, a new $1 billion factory in Lake Township, Ohio, that will employ 500 workers. Roughly a dozen other  solar panel and cell manufacturers are following First Solar’s example  and launching additional U.S.-based production as well. 
In November, kitchenware and furniture maker Williams-Sonoma announced a 6.4 percent increase in third-quarter revenue. Much of this success came from its new retail brand West Elm,  which experienced a fourth-quarter sales increase of 14 percent despite  25 percent tariffs on most of its products sourced from China.  Williams-Sonoma has made commitments to leave China and is opening manufacturing operations in the U.S. and adding employees.


And in December, America’s largest steelmaker, Nucor, announced the  addition of a coil paint line at its Mississippi County, Arkansas, mill  that will coat roughly 250,000 tons of steel each year. The plant will  add 50 new jobs in Arkansas, joining the hundreds of positions that the  company is currently adding in new mills under construction in Missouri  and Florida. 
These companies are just a few examples of a broader  trend showing that the Trump administration’s tariffs are working. The  steel industry in particular offers ample evidence, with America’s steel  companies investing some $13 billion in new steelmaking and mills across the nation.
This  isn’t what many economists predicted, however. And frustrated by the  flow of such positive news, the economics profession is looking for  other means to wage their war against tariffs. Last month, two Federal  Reserve Board economists, Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, claimed that  the tariffs have led to a “relative” loss for manufacturing employment  in affected sectors. They also reported other small but negative effects  from rising input costs. Their report follows other attempts to  demonstrate that the tariffs aren’t helping the economy.  
But  what’s really going on? The answer, to quote one economist friend, is:  “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
Here’s what we actually know. There was a manufacturing boom in 2017 and 2018 that boosted manufacturing employment 190,000  jobs in 2017 and 264,000 jobs in 2018. That brought America’s factory  employment up to 12.809 million by December 2018. The 2018 increase was  the largest in 20 years. Federal Reserve manufacturing production figures support this, showing industrial production up 2.5 percent in 2017 and 2.2 percent in 2018.


In 2019, the manufacturing sector experienced a pause. Fed data show  that as of November, manufacturing output was down 0.8 percent compared  with November 2018. But jobs aren’t down. Manufacturing employment in November 2019 came in at 12.865 million, up 56,000 jobs from December 2018. 
The  2019 slowdown could have many causes. There’s the Fed’s series of  interest rate increases. Or the slowdown in foreign economies, including  China and Germany. But the fact remains that the U.S. economy continues  to grow faster than major competitors. And China is suffering from the  current trade war, with U.S. imports from China down $65 billion – or 15 percent – in 2019 year-to-date compared with 2018.
As  for the tariffs’ impacts, some industries may have seen price increases  following the tariffs. But there are many product categories, like  steel and solar panels, where prices have actually fallen since the  tariffs were imposed. And even in industries like furniture, where  prices have risen, they have increased by far less than the tariff rate  of 25 percent. And while some companies that sell cheap products from  China have suffered, more nimble companies like Williams-Sonoma have  done very well.

More at: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...any-economists

----------


## Swordsmyth

We often hear that the Trump administration’s steel  tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy. News commentators certainly think  so. They talk about a trade war with China — and how the tariffs are  costing jobs while raising prices.
 My company has 2,700 employees, including 600 in the  Chicago area alone. We’re a major steel buyer, and we purchase more  hot-rolled steel coil each year than General Motors. We think the  tariffs are working well.


The steel we buy is used to manufacture tubing and piping  at 16 facilities across the United States. Our products are used in  everything from commercial construction and apartment buildings to  energy infrastructure and data centers. Since 2017, we’ve hired 750 new  employees while increasing our sales by 20 percent. 
 The tariffs matter because steel is important. It’s a key  measure of a nation’s economic security. Steel is the bedrock commodity  needed to build transportation, infrastructure, housing, and power  distribution. Unfortunately, America’s steel industry has been declining  in recent decades, and the United States is now the world’s largest steel importer. 
 What really hurt America’s steel mills is years of China  massively subsidizing its state-owned steel industry. In fact, China has  driven an enormous global oversupply of steel. China now produces 56 percent of the world’s steel, including an estimated 400 million tons  of excess steel each year. All of that oversupply has reduced steel  prices worldwide, leading to high levels of imports that have  progressively swamped America’s steelmakers. Chinese steel also makes  its way into the U.S. through transshipment and end-use products like  washing machines, lawnmowers, and barbecues.
 Last year, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on  steel imports. And the net effect has been to level the playing field,  allowing America’s steel producers to make major improvements and  increase plant utilization. When the tariffs were first announced, there  were short-term price spikes as America’s steel mills took stock. But  steelmakers subsequently invested in world-leading electric arc furnaces  to boost capacity and better compete with China. Even though my  company’s primary component cost is raw steel, I supported the tariffs. I  knew that in the long run it would lead to a more sustainable domestic  steel industry.
 Now, we’re seeing America’s steel industry investing  $14 billion to transition from older blast-furnaces to newer  mini-mills. Ironically, media coverage has portrayed the closures of  these older steel plants as evidence that the tariffs have failed. But  actually, these are smart, logical moves by a steel sector now  reinventing itself and making major capital investments in high-tech mini-mills. Fears about higher prices have proven to be overblown, too. Steel prices have fallen 50 percent from peak levels last year and are now below pre-tariff levels.
 Since the tariffs were imposed, my company has been  expanding. We’ve doubled our capital expenditures to $160 million  annually. And we’re even looking to hire 400 new workers across the  eight states where we operate manufacturing facilities.
 Clearly, we’re doing better, our workers are doing  better, and many struggling communities are starting to get back on  their feet. But all of that could turn around again.
 Despite global calls for Beijing to reduce steel supply, production has continued to rise. China now produces  more steel than the rest of the world combined — and it continues to  overproduce in order to maintain its world-leading capacity while  exporting steel at prices often set below the cost of production.

More at: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2019/11...is-steel-buyer

----------


## Swordsmyth

The jobs market kicked off 2020 in grand fashion,  adding 291,000 in private payrolls for the best monthly gain since May  2015, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.
That  was well above the 150,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow  Jones and more evidence that the U.S. still is a good distance from full  employment even with the jobless rate at its lowest point in more than  50 years. The total also was a sharp gain from the 199,000 in December,  which was revised down 3,000 from the initial count.
Growth came across a swath of industries.
Leisure  and hospitality led with 96,000 new jobs, but education and health  services also contributed 70,000 and professional and business services  added 49,000. On the goods-producing side, construction rose by 47,000,  the best growth since the 62,000 added in January 2019, and  manufacturing was up 10,000, the biggest monthly gain since last  February.
In all, services added 237,000 positions compared with  54,000 for goods producers. Trade transportation and utilities rose by  8,000, while the information and financial activities sectors  contributed 2,000 apiece. Natural resources and mining was the sole  loser with a drop of 2,000.

More at: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/adp-...uary-2019.html

----------


## Swordsmyth

The jobs report from ADP on Wednesday understated  job growth in January. Based on its own payrolls, the growth of private  employment in the United States wasn’t 291,000. It was actually 336,100  when new jobs created by franchises were included.
 The new jobs appeared in every sector of the economy, from small  businesses to large and from goods-producing to service-providing. Small  businesses added 94,000 new jobs; medium sized companies added 128,000  while large companies (500 employees and up) added 69,000. Those running  franchise operations hired 45,100 new people in January.
 Construction and manufacturing added 55,000 jobs, while professional  and business services hired 49,000. Education added 70,000, while the  leisure and hospitality sector brought on 96,000 new people.

More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...e-like-336-000

----------


## enhanced_deficit

To give credit where due, economic optimism these days level is spectacular;  just Tesla alone doubled in market value in past one week.

Despite some comparisons being made to the spectacular economic bubble optimism of 2005-06 ( just before 08 crash) orchestrated by then Deep Fed to accomodate globalist Iraq war intervention , I'm still not convinced that globalists are running the economic indicators currently also to create roadmap for Iran intervention.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> To give credit where due, economic optimism these days level is spectacular;  just Tesla alone doubled in market value in past one week.
> 
> Despite some comparisons being made to the spectacular economic bubble optimism of 2005-06 ( just before 08 crash) orchestrated by then Deep Fed to accomodate globalist Iraq war intervention , I'm still not convinced that globalists are running the economic indicators currently also to create roadmap for Iran intervention.


Snort.

----------


## oyarde

> *Peter Schiff: Market ‘Is an Inflation-Driven Bubble’ Ready to Pop
> 
> *https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-sc...driven-bubble/
> 
> GDP 2.3% is a 3 year low.


It is actually quite remarkable that it is two percent . Everyone who wants a job has one  and employment is still only 6 in 10 .Business investment is down , consumer spending is down .Just think what American productivity could do without federal regulation .

----------


## timosman

> O'Bummer and the Demoncrats put lots of people on it.
> 
> Trump has the number dropping rapidly.


I was hoping Trump during the SOTU would turn to the camera and say - If you are not working in this economy it is not the government's responsibility to fund your lifestyle.

----------


## timosman

> Snort.


This dude is nothing short of terrible.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> This dude is nothing short of terrible.


He has no shame.

He will invent any fantasy or twist anything to try and say Trump is bad.

Unfortunately for him he has no skill.

----------


## timosman

> He has no shame.
> 
> He will invent any fantasy or twist anything to try and say Trump is bad.
> 
> Unfortunately for him he has no skill.


Zippy 2.0?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Zippy 2.0?


CPUd 2.0

----------


## Swordsmyth

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits at the  end of January fell close to a postrecession low, signaling the U.S.  labor market is still rock solid despite stiffer economic headwinds.  Initial  jobless claims declined by 15,000 to 202,000 in the seven days ended  Feb. 1, the government said Thursday. The figures are seasonally  adjusted.
 Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 215,000 reading.
 
                                                                                                                                                 The more stable monthly average of jobless claims, which filters out the weekly ups and downs, dropped by 3,000 to 211,750.
 New  unemployment applications are seen as a rough measure of how many  people are losing their jobs. They touched a 50-year low of 193,000 in  April 2019 and have hovered in the low 200,000s since then.

More at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ne...low-2020-02-06

----------


## Swordsmyth

After disappointingly contracting by 0.2% in Q3 2019, US Productivity  was expected to expand by 1.6% QoQ in Q4, but while it did bounce back,  the preliminary US productivity rose only 1.4% QoQ. This enabled a 1.8%  YoY gain in productivity for 2019...



This is the biggest annual gain in productivity since 2010...

 


Unit labor costs were also up at a 1.4% rate following a 2.5% pace in the previous three months. The report showed *inflation-adjusted hourly compensation averaged a 1.9% pace in 2019, the biggest gain since 2015.*

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...jump-most-2015

----------


## enhanced_deficit

Prophets of gloom n doom are back.
Granted there has been heavy QE by Deep Politics/Deep Fed to inflate  Wall Stareet and the non-bubble economy is being stimulated  by big  deficit spending, it is wise to publish pessimistic predictions in  national news?*

'70% chance of recession in the next six months', new study from MIT and State Street finds*

----------


## Warlord



----------


## Zippyjuan

> They were juicing O'Bummer's numbers and that was just one example that has been exposed.
> Plus he was the beneficiary of a rebound reaction from the collapse and an extremely helpful Fed.


Trump is the beneficiary of the economic growth following the recession which occurred under Obama.  He was lucky to enter office at a good time.

----------


## Warlord

> Trump is the beneficiary of the economic growth following the recession which occurred under Obama.  He was lucky to enter office at a good time.


2.3% growth is nothing to shout about.

----------


## Zippyjuan

> 2.3% growth is nothing to shout about.


It is not bad- especially considering the population is growing at less than one percent. And it has been slowing.  He promised four percent (but he likes to exaggerate) and nothing wrong with promoting optimism.

----------


## Warlord

> It is not bad- especially considering the population is growing at less than one percent. And it has been slowing.  He promised four percent (but he likes to exaggerate) and nothing wrong with promoting optimism.


He claims its 'the best economy the world has ever seen' and people believe this crap... consumer confidence is high but its only going to last so long

----------


## oyarde

> 2.3% growth is nothing to shout about.


Actually it is as good as it gets . It will remain good until it is not . The positive run has lasted much longer than one might expect . Govt has meddled to the point where small business cannot overcome any greater than it does .It is a culture of decline . Only 6 in 10 work ( anyone who wants a job has one ) , of those about 2 pay more tax than they receive . It is a failed welfare state . So it is doing as well as it will until it declines . Enjoy the good times is how I see it .

----------


## Warlord

> Actually it is as good as it gets . It will remain good until it is not . The positive run has lasted much longer than one might expect . Govt has meddled to the point where small business cannot overcome any greater than it does .It is a culture of decline . Only 6 in 10 work ( anyone who wants a job has one ) , of those about 2 pay more tax than they receive . It is a failed welfare state . So it is doing as well as it will until it declines . Enjoy the good times is how I see it .


But Trump claims its the best economy ever and he means in the history of the US which is bull$#@!.  He's also going to dump more socialist programs on businesses (paid parental leave) plus whatever crap the Democrats pass in the House and he signs in a 'must pass' bill like a big spending one.  He's also meddling in Afghanistan, Syria, Valenzuela, Yemen etc. and giving the military big increases further increasing the deficit which is up 23%.

This can only go on for so long.

----------


## devil21

> 2.3% growth is nothing to shout about.


Especially with $1T+ deficits and now even Trump has his own version of QE behind him.  There's not much discernible difference now between Obama and Trump as far as deficits and money printing Fed operations are concerned.  If 2.3% GDP relies on $1T-$1.5T+ annual deficits going forward, imagine where GDP would be without that level of debt issuance being factored into government spending, which is then figured into GDP.  And those who claim that the stats were goosed favorably for Obama but not Trump need only look at official "inflation rate" numbers to know that's not true.

----------


## Warlord

> Especially with $1T+ deficits and now even Trump has his own version of QE behind him.


Something else you won't see in conservative or mainstream media:

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I was talking with my shift manager the other day. I was bitching about the overtime and how we didn't even have anyone in training despite them saying they would be hiring. He told me he just was at a local conference of all the county manufacturers. The conference was about how to attract new hires. The team leading the conference pretty much told them they were $#@!ed. Our county currently has 1.9% unemployment. Which pretty much means the only ones not working are the ones not able or willing to. They told them the only options were higher wages and better benefits. Works for me.


Trump is also pushing people off welfare so there should be more people willing to work.

But it's long past time that wages went up in this country anyway.

----------


## devil21

> Trump is also pushing people off welfare so there should be more people willing to work.
> 
> But it's long past time that wages went up in this country anyway.


We'll all have lots of digital crypto company scrip to buy life necessities from the Wal-Azon company store!

----------


## Warlord

> He claims its 'the best economy the world has ever seen' and people believe this crap... consumer confidence is high but its only going to last so long


Hate to say I told you but the crisis we warned about is here.

Now get ready for President Biden.  The recession is going to hit in time for the elections.

 @phill4paul

----------


## CCTelander

Perhaps all that "choogling" was, in actuality, just the first faint rumblings of the death rattle and gasp as they made their way up through the corpse? Time will tell.

----------


## Todd

> Hate to say I told you but the crisis we warned about is here.
> 
> Now get ready for President Biden.  The recession is going to hit in time for the elections.
> 
>  @phill4paul


Great.  Then Swordsmyth will be replaced by some idiot pushing Biden slurping.

----------


## phill4paul

> Hate to say I told you but the crisis we warned about is here.
> 
> Now get ready for President Biden.  The recession is going to hit in time for the elections.
> 
>  @phill4paul


  I wouldn't be making any predictions just yet. November is a ways off.

----------


## Warlord

And guess what? President Biden means HIGHER taxes and even more government meddling. 4 years of more crisis. This is so bad.

Trump could have come clean years ago and demanded a balanced budget, spending cuts and real reforms. Instead he presided over massive increases in gov't spending and debt. He will be remembered as a complete failure along with Bush and Obama. Not much between them is there? At least he didn't start s new war though but only because he knows the people are sick of war and would not support one.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Hate to say I told you but the crisis we warned about is here.
> 
> Now get ready for President Biden.  The recession is going to hit in time for the elections.
> 
>  @phill4paul


LOL

The stockmarket is not the economy and the virus panic is still in full swing but it won't last.

Trump will be re-elected and things will continue to choogle.

----------


## acptulsa

> Great.  Then Swordsmyth will be replaced by some idiot pushing Biden slurping.


So when Herbert Hoover Trump gets himself beat by the worst Democrat nominee since Hubert Humphrey, they'll replace our Swordshyll with a Plowshyll?

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> LOL
> 
> The stockmarket is not the economy and the virus panic is still in full swing but it won't last.
> 
> Trump will be re-elected and things will continue to choogle.


Unless it's going up, of course.

----------


## Swordsmyth

> Unless it's going up, of course.


Not then either.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Not then either.


What about when the President constantly points to the stock market as proof of the most greaterific wonderfullest economy ever?

...which definitely wasn't a giant inflationary bubble in need of ever more inflation as said President was always demanding?

----------


## acptulsa

> What about when the President constantly points to the stock market as proof of the most greaterific wonderfullest economy ever?
> 
> ...which definitely wasn't a giant inflationary bubble in need of ever more inflation as said President was always demanding?


He has to tell lies to mislead The Derp State (TDS ©2016)

----------


## Swordsmyth

> What about when the President constantly points to the stock market as proof of the most greaterific wonderfullest economy ever?
> 
> ...which definitely wasn't a giant inflationary bubble in need of ever more inflation as said President was always demanding?


He can campaign any way he wants but the stock market has been disconnected from the real economy for a long time.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> He can campaign any way he wants but the stock market has been disconnected from the real economy for a long time.


His cheering on of the Fed as it loots the country to enrich Wall Street must be a cunning plan to destroy the banker cabal somehow...

...heart disease from excessive caviar consumption?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> His cheering on of the Fed as it loots the country to enrich Wall Street must be a cunning plan to destroy the banker cabal somehow...
> 
> ...heart disease from excessive caviar consumption?


He has been blaming them for our economic troubles, when he makes them the enemy in the minds of the public he can get the support to end them.

----------


## acptulsa

> His cheering on of the Fed as it loots the country to enrich Wall Street must be a cunning plan to destroy the banker cabal somehow...
> 
> ...heart disease from excessive caviar consumption?


He's bleeding them through campaign contributions and kickbacks.




> He has been blaming them for our economic troubles, when he makes them the enemy in the minds of the public he can get the support to end them.


Can't foment a revolution against the bankers until you help the bankers cause everyone else real pain, don'tchaknow.

Hey.  Just because you're screwing people doesn't mean you don't love them.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> He has to tell lies to mislead The Derp State (TDS ©2016)


A) Argue about the meaning of words like "cut", "spending", "military", "entitlement", "increase", and "budget"
 B) Tell us that their authoritarian idol really didn't mean what he said
*C) Tell us that this is a brilliant move in a game of 3-D chess that only trumpettes are capable of understanding*
D) Tell us that it's ok because obomba did it first
E) Tell us that it's ok because it would have been horrible if clinton had done the very same thing
F) Tell us that this is what Liberty and Freedom really mean
G) Call CPUd names

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> He has been blaming them for our economic troubles, when he makes them the enemy in the minds of the public he can get the support to end them.


Publicly encouraging the Fed to print more money, in order to get them to print less money, was a brilliant strategy, but, alas, it's not quite working. It turns out, inexplicably, that telling the Fed to print more money causes them to print more money. And, what's even more shocking, telling the public that money printing is good causes them to believe that money printing is good. No one could have predicted this. Poor Trump, his plans for sound money and fiscal rectitude in tatters..

----------


## acptulsa

> A) Argue about the meaning of words like "cut", "spending", "military", "entitlement", "increase", and "budget"
>  B) Tell us that their authoritarian idol really didn't mean what he said
> *C) Tell us that this is a brilliant move in a game of 3-D chess that only trumpettes are capable of understanding*
> D) Tell us that it's ok because obomba did it first
> E) Tell us that it's ok because it would have been horrible if clinton had done the very same thing
> F) Tell us that this is what Liberty and Freedom really mean
> G) Call CPUd names


Yeah, you're right.  I was thinking that, "Explain he has to help the rest of the oligarchs screw us all to make your neighbors mad enough to revolt" was a new one.  But it's just Strategy C ratcheted up to Level: Insanity.

Same old same old.

----------


## r3volution 3.0

> Yeah, you're right.  I was thinking that, "Explain he has to help the rest of the oligarchs screw us all to make your neighbors mad enough to revolt" was a new one.  But it's just Strategy C ratcheted up to Level: Insanity.
> 
> Same old same old.


The writers are just phoning it in at this point, like the last season of a sitcom, which it kind of is.

----------


## Todd

> LOL
> 
> The stockmarket is not the economy and the virus panic is still in full swing but it won't last.
> 
> Trump will be re-elected and things will continue to choogle.


Yeah...It is a lot of LOL....Cause that's not what your butt munch buddy Trump has been saying.  

 If the economy was his when it was at 29K, then HE OWNS it when it's at 20K

----------


## devil21

> He's bleeding them through campaign contributions and kickbacks.
> 
> Can't foment a revolution against the bankers until you help the bankers cause everyone else real pain, don'tchaknow.
> 
> Hey.  Just because you're screwing people doesn't mean you don't love them.


Bleeding Wall St dry by being the greatest day trader of all time.  Buy the lows, order PPT to start up, send fake news tweet and give a presser, watch 5% ramp, sell the top after the presser ends.  Killin' the deep state one insider trade at a time.

----------


## CCTelander

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm already sick and tired of "winning" if that's what we're doing now.

----------


## Todd

> I don't know about anyone else, but I'm already sick and tired of "winning" if that's what we're doing now.


It's called choogling... 

Looks like this.

----------


## Warlord

> I don't know about anyone else, but I'm already sick and tired of "winning" if that's what we're doing now.


Some of us did warn about a bubble forming.

Though I agree gloating is not nice. Jobs and livelihoods are on the line.

Just do what you gotta do.

----------


## Swordsmyth

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...49943719727104

----------


## Todd

> https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...49943719727104

----------


## Swordsmyth

In August, America added nearly 1.4 million new jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation Report, in line with the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent, the second largest decline on record. The August jobs report confirms that the strong recovery continues.

Just a few months ago, America had an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent—the lowest rate in 50 years—before jumping to a peak of 14.7 percent in April due to devastation wrought by COVID-19. But between April and August, the unemployment rate fell by 6.3 percentage points to 8.4 percent. For perspective, following the Great Recession of 2008-09, it took nearly a decade for the unemployment rate to fall by 6.3 percentage points. President Trump’s economy accomplished this in just four months.

Under this Administration, America is on track to witness the fastest labor market recovery from any economic crisis in history. For four months, the employment report has met or exceeded expectations. In fact, the labor market in August performed better than what most major forecasts projected would occur by year’s end. In July, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a 10.5 percent unemployment rate in the fourth quarter while both Blue Chip and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected unemployment rates of 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter.



As the economy recovers, however, the path to full employment becomes tougher. In April, nearly four out of five jobs lost could be attributed to temporary layoffs, reflecting efforts by Congress and the Administration to keep workers attached to their employers. Four months later, it is apparent why an expedient recovery is vital. The number of temporary layoffs has dropped to just 50 percent as 80 percent of small businesses are now open relative to their pre-COVID-19 levels. Nonetheless, a point of strength in this report lies in the progress we have made since April. At its peak, temporary layoffs hit over 18 million. Since then, temporary layoffs have decreased to just 6 million, a recovery of nearly 67 percent.

More at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/...nt-rate-drops/

----------


## Swordsmyth

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its index of consumer confidence jumped in September by the biggest increase in 17 years. The index clocked in at 101.8 for the month, up from 86.3 in August. Economists were expecting a reading of just 89.6.

Inside that index were two indicators driving the increase: how consumers feel about the economy right now (98.5 currently, up from 85.8 in August) and how consumers feel about the next six months (104 currently, up from 86.6 in August).

On Wednesday morning, payroll processor ADP reported that the rebounding U.S. economy added nearly 770,000 new jobs in August: 196,000 in the “goods-producing” sector of the economy and 552,000 in the service sector. Franchise employment added another 20,700 jobs last month. Forecasters once again underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy’s rebound from the shutdown: They predicted a 649,000 gain in August. 

ADP also revised upward last month’s new jobs report, from 428,000 to 481,000.

The ADP report comes two days before the jobs report from the Department of Labor, the last report on the health of the economy before the election. Forecasters are predicting the DOL will show the economy adding 850,000 new jobs in August, bringing the unemployment rate down further, from 8.4 percent last month to 8.2 percent in September.

The report from ADP was followed by a report on business conditions in the Chicago region on Wednesday morning. The Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) jumped in September to 62.4 from 51.2 in August, exceeding economists’ forecasts of just 52. All five main components of the index were higher in September, especially new orders and production. Both advanced to nearly two-year highs.

More at: https://thenewamerican.com/latest-ec...f-u-s-economy/

----------


## Swordsmyth

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports that the economy is continuing its remarkable and robust recovery from the COVID-inspired and government-mandated shutdown. ISM is the world’s oldest and largest supply-management association and has been tracking world economies for more than 100 years.

According to Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, economic activity in the manufacturing sector “grew in September, with the overall economy notching a fifth consecutive month of growth” following the shutdown. Specifically,

    Demand expanded, with the New Orders Index growing at strong levels;

    The Customers’ Inventories Index [is] at its lowest figure since June 2010, a level considered positive for future production; and

    The Backlog of Orders Index [is] expanding at a faster rate than the prior two months.

“Five of the top six industries,” said Fiore, are “continuing to expand output strongly.” “Business is booming,” wrote a representative in the Transportation Equipment sector. “Overall business conditions are improving,” said a member in Fabricated Metal Products. From the Machinery sector, a member added, “Our customer order intake is increasing significantly for deliveries in the first half of 2021. [Our] outlook is generally positive.”



A manager in Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Components said, “Demand remains high [with a] strong finish to 2020 projected, with an even stronger 2021 fiscal year [anticipated].” And from a respondent in Plastics and Rubber Products: “Business has continued to be strong, with September following August. October is also shaping up to be a good sales month as well.”

Manufacturing, however, is overshadowed in size by the Services sector of the U.S. economy, which is enjoying a similar revival. The overall Services Index for September clocked in at 57.8 (any number above 50 indicates an expanding economy), growing for the fourth month in a row. ISM’s Supplier Deliveries Index is at 54.9, its New Orders Index is at 61.5, while its Business Activity Index scored 63 in September.

Sixteen of the 17 Services sectors reported growth in September. Most impressively, ISM’s Employment Index came in at 51.8, the first time since March that it registered expansion in hiring in the Services sector.

From the Construction sector, a member wrote, “Work orders are improving rapidly. Lack of available labor is having a significant impact on our ability to fulfill orders.” In Mining, a member responded, “Activity level is holding steady, with [an] optimistic outlook.” From Retail Trade: “Business has come back solidly since mid-July, with a strong August and September. And from Wholesale Trade: “Very good sales trend in home improvement product sales.”

All of this comes on top of the Labor Department’s report on Friday showing the economy adding 770,000 new workers in September, dropping the unemployment rate below eight percent for the first time since March. Accordingly, unemployment numbers are dropping, reflecting increasing consumer confidence. In fact, the Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Commerce Department, leapt by the biggest amount in 17 years — from 86.3 in August to 101.8 in September.

And the best is yet to come. Forecasters are expecting the Commerce Department to report later this month that growth in the third quarter will come in at well over 30 percent on an annualized basis, just in time for the election on November 3.

So strong is the rebound that expectations are that it will continue well into the New Year and beyond. With additional tax and regulatory cuts promised by the president in his second term, it looks like clear sailing ahead for the U.S. economy. 

https://thenewamerican.com/report-ma...ors-expanding/

----------


## Todd

My Chinese investments are doing fabulosso.   Thank you Mr. President

----------


## Swordsmyth

> My Chinese investments are doing fabulosso.   Thank you Mr. President


Enjoy your blood money while you can, they are soon going to collapse.

----------


## devil21

> Enjoy your blood money while you can, they are soon going to collapse.


I was just recently wondering why you had abandoned your China collapse thread.  Are they still collapsing?

----------


## Swordsmyth

> I was just recently wondering why you had abandoned your China collapse thread.  Are they still collapsing?


Yes, they are, I do not update it because it won't be long now and I do not throw pearls before swine.

----------


## devil21

> Yes, they are, I do not update it because it won't be long now and I do not throw pearls before swine.


K cool.  Thanks for staying on top of all of that so none of us have to think or research any of it ourselves.  I highly trust yahoo articles and the like to be very factual and not tailored to present a prepackaged narrative.

----------


## Todd

> Enjoy your blood money while you can, they are soon going to collapse.


Yeah because all those US corporations and investments have pristine hands.   

Get a clue.

Wanna talk collapse?  There is NO FREE MARKET.  If ever that was abundantly clear to me it has been this year.  If the Chinese economy fails then the US will fall right behind it.  

When one politician or one investor can vomit some stupid comment and send an entire market into a tailspin then there is too much collusion of evil politics with that market system.  It's been fascism for some time now young one, so stop pretending like this all stopped and got fixed 4 years ago on inauguration day.

----------


## Todd

> I was just recently wondering why you had abandoned your China collapse thread.  Are they still collapsing?


Have you noticed the trend too?

This dude actually compared the modern day Chinese tech economy with Soviet Russia circa 1970's - 1980's.

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## Madison320

> So strong is the rebound that expectations are that it will continue well into the New Year and beyond. With additional tax and regulatory cuts promised by the president in his second term, it looks like clear sailing ahead for the U.S. economy.


If the economy is so great why do we have to borrow and print record amounts?

We just topped 27 trillion, that's 7 trillion added to the debt since Trump took over and it's been getting much faster, even before covid.

And we also printed another 3 trillion.

Anybody can make an economy look good in the short run if you can borrow and print that much.

Biden would be worse, but dang the bar is low.

I'm hoping for Biden to win, then the inevitable inflationary collapse (Trump or Biden), then a republican sweep in 2022. Republicans suddenly find the urge to cut spending when they are not in power.

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## AngryCanadian

> Have you noticed the trend too?
> 
> This dude actually compared the modern day Chinese tech economy with Soviet Russia circa 1970's - 1980's.


The video seems like propaganda.

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## AngryCanadian

> If the economy is so great why do we have to borrow and print record amounts?
> 
> We just topped 27 trillion, that's 7 trillion added to the debt since Trump took over and it's been getting much faster, even before covid.
> 
> And we also printed another 3 trillion.
> 
> Anybody can make an economy look good in the short run if you can borrow and print that much.
> 
> Biden would be worse, but dang the bar is low.
> ...





> then a republican sweep in 2022


Not going to happen if liberals win this year.

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## Swordsmyth

> If the economy is so great why do we have to borrow and print record amounts?
> 
> We just topped 27 trillion, that's 7 trillion added to the debt since Trump took over and it's been getting much faster, even before covid.
> 
> And we also printed another 3 trillion.
> 
> Anybody can make an economy look good in the short run if you can borrow and print that much.
> 
> Biden would be worse, but dang the bar is low.
> ...


If Biden wins they will impose communism and a one party state.

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## Madison320

> If Biden wins they will impose communism and a one party state.


So the prospect of a Biden presidency is so bad that you have to lie about the state of the economy?

Or do you really believe that record amounts of debt and money printing don't matter?

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## Swordsmyth

> So the prospect of a Biden presidency is so bad that you have to lie about the state of the economy?
> 
> Or do you really believe that record amounts of debt and money printing don't matter?


I am not lying about the state of the economy, I am presenting data.

And while record levels of debt and money printing are not good they are not solely responsible for the improvements Trump has caused and will not be significantly worse do deal with than the levels from before Trump.

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## Madison320

> I am not lying about the state of the economy, I am presenting data.
> 
> And while record levels of debt and money printing are not good they are not solely responsible for the improvements Trump has caused and will not be *significantly worse* do deal with than the levels from before Trump.


Define *significantly worse*.

The debt was about 20 trillion when Trump took office. It'll be close to 30 trillion at the end of his term. That's almost a 50% increase.

The Fed balance sheet was about 4.5 trillion when Trump took office. It'll be at least 7.5 trillion when he leaves. That's about a 60% increase.

So the debt increased by almost 50% and the amount of printed money increased by 60%. In only 4 years!!!!! That's not significant!!!! 

Wipe that kool-aid off your chin!

By any objective measure we are in much worse shape financially then 4 years ago.

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## Swordsmyth

> Define *significantly worse*.
> 
> The debt was about 20 trillion when Trump took office. It'll be close to 30 trillion at the end of his term. That's almost a 50% increase.
> 
> The Fed balance sheet was about 4.5 trillion when Trump took office. It'll be at least 7.5 trillion when he leaves. That's about a 60% increase.
> 
> So the debt increased by almost 50% and the amount of printed money increased by 60%. In only 4 years!!!!! That's not significant!!!! 
> 
> Wipe that kool-aid off your chin!
> ...


We are past the point where it makes any difference, we will have to default on mountains of debt sooner or later, we were long past the point it makes any difference before Trump took office.

And Trump's policies are the only reason we might survive when it all comes crashing down.

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## Madison320

> We are past the point where it makes any difference, we will have to default on mountains of debt sooner or later, we were long past the point it makes any difference before Trump took office.
> 
> And Trump's policies are the only reason we might survive when it all comes crashing down.


Ok, do you promise never to complain about deficits and government spending, even if Biden gets elected?

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## Swordsmyth

> Ok, do you promise never to complain about deficits and government spending, even if Biden gets elected?


I have never made deficits or the amount of spending one of my primary focuses, I oppose them in theory, I opposed them more when there was a chance we might be able to reverse the debt through good policy rather than through default and I will again oppose them to a greater degree after we default but there always have been and always will be more important issues.

What the money is spent on is far more important than how much is spent and if you limit spending to the correct items it will also limit the amount of spending.

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## Madison320

> I have never made deficits or the amount of spending one of my primary focuses, I oppose them in theory, I opposed them more when there was a chance we might be able to reverse the debt through good policy rather than through default and I will again oppose them to a greater degree after we default but there always have been and always will be more important issues.
> 
> What the money is spent on is far more important than how much is spent and if *you limit spending to the correct items it will also limit the amount of spending*.


Therefore Trump is spending on incorrect items since the amount of spending is skyrocketing.

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## Swordsmyth

> Therefore Trump is spending on incorrect items since the amount of spending is skyrocketing.


While I would never claim that all spending promoted by Trump (he is not responsible for all spending because Congress writes the bills and can override vetoes) is spent only on correct items it is not true that you can't overspend on correct items or that some wrong items are not less wrong than others.

Trump is not perfect but the things he spends on are either less wrong than the Demoncrats or correct items for government spending that he may spend too much on.
Meanwhile the other good things he does far outweigh his spending problems and have been vastly improving the economy which helps alleviate the current spending/debt issues and will be extremely important to helping us survive and rebuild after the debt collapse/default.

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## Swordsmyth

The latest survey of consumers from the University of Michigan — its “Preliminary Results for October 2020” — just released showed “gains in economic prospects for the year ahead,” according to its authors. And that’s just the beginning of the reports issued last week and those coming this final full week before election day.

In September its Index of Consumer Sentiment was 80.4; a month later it is 81.2. Its Index of Consumer Expectations for September was 75.6; for October it’s 78.8. When the results are broken down by political party, “Trump still held an advantage over Biden,” the same advantage he held in September, according to the UMich survey.



The “flash” (preliminary) output, services, and manufacturing indices from the data firm IHS Markit on Friday each showed 20-month highs, with its author reporting: “U.S. output growth regained growth momentum in October, as business activity rose at the fastest rate for 20 months, and business optimism improved markedly. The upturn was largely driven by service providers, though manufacturing firms also reported a further solid increase in production.”

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, added:

    The US economy looks to have started the fourth quarter on a strong footing, with business activity growing at a rate not seen since early 2019.

    The service sector led the expansion as increasing numbers of companies adapted to life with COVID19, while manufacturing continued to report solid growth amid rising demand from households and businesses….

    More encouragingly, business optimism surged higher, indicating that firms have become increasingly positive about prospects for the coming year amid hopes of renewed stimulus, COVID-19 containment measures gradually easing and greater certainty for businesses and households after the presidential elections.

The number of U.S. workers seeking unemployment benefits dropped by 55,000 last week, another encouraging sign that job losses are easing and the labor market is improving. The recovery continues to flummox forecasters as well, who expected 860,000 new weekly claims. Instead 787,000 claims were filed for the week ending October 17, a happy miss to the downside by 73,000. 

In addition retail sales, both online and at stores, rose again in September for the fifth straight month. And the housing market continues to boom, thanks to low interest rates and pent-up demand. It appears now to be limited by supply, with builders unable to find the skilled workers they need to meet the increasing demand.

The “Beige Book” — a collection of anecdotal evidence gathered by the Federal Reserve and published eight times a year — that was released last Wednesday contained more good news for the economy. Said the report, “Economic activity continued to increase across all [12] districts [including] manufacturing [which] generally increased [and] residential housing markets continued to experience steady demand for new and existing homes.” It added: “Consumer spending growth remained positive [and] demand for autos remained steady.”

In addition, “Employment increased in almost all Districts … most consistently for manufacturing firms,” said the Fed. 

The best news is yet to come. On Thursday the long-awaited and much-anticipated report on the gross domestic output of the economy during the third quarter (July through September) from the Commerce Department is expected to report that the economy’s output exceeded 30 percent on an annualized basis. Even anti-Trump MSNBC was unable to shade the news: “GDP is expected to increase by about 30% in the third quarter … [this will be] news like [the economy] has never seen before, reflecting growth that had [earlier] seemed impossible.”

It reluctantly admitted: “[The news] will come at an opportune time for President Donald Trump. The GDP release comes [on] October 29, just five days before the presidential election.”

It painfully admitted:

    The economy regained nearly 4 million jobs during the quarter, and that was after 7.5 million in May and June. Housing sales and builder confidence has been remarkable, and shoppers easily outpaced expectations in September with retail sales rising 1.9%, nearly tripling the Wall Street estimate.

Jeff Cox, covering the anticipated good news on the economy for MSNBC, additionally reported:

    The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence index, a gauge that measures the percent of positive responses on conditions, jumped to a reading of 64 in September from 45. A solid 70% of top executives said economic conditions were better compared with six months ago, compared with 8% at the start of the quarter. A similar number said conditions in their respective industries were better compared with six months ago, in the early days of the pandemic.

    Moreover, 64% expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months, while only 15% see them worsening.

All of which continues to boost President Trump’s reelection chances.

https://thenewamerican.com/roaring-e...ction-chances/

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## Swordsmyth

The Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent, beating forecasters’ expectations.

More at: https://thenewamerican.com/third-qua...rump-campaign/

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## Firestarter

> The Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent, beating forecasters’ expectations.


Trump shyllz will probably boast about the expected big GDP rise of a whopping 25 to 30% for this quarter. But this isn’t that impressive after a record-breaking 31.4% drop in the previous quarter: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...doesn-n1245116

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## Firestarter

The US economy is expected to shrink by 4.3% this year, according to the IMF. Some countries are actually expected to grow, including South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and China.
The US is taking on debt levels not seen since World War II. While Donald Trump in 2016 promised to clear the debt in 8 years, its federal debt has ballooned with another $5.6 trillion.

President Donald has promised over and over and over again to reopen the economy… 
In April, in a nice publicity stunt, Donald promised us a “reopening task force”, which included corporate giants from amongst others Amazon, General Motors and Merck.
Tim Schlittner, a spokesperson for the US’s largest labour union AFL-CIO, explained “_This was a sham, not a task force_”.

In the half year since it was founded, the panel has met only once, by phone. Some executives didn’t even know they were part of this task force a few hours before receiving a request to join a phone conference with the White House: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...force-n1244203

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## GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged

> Trump shyllz will probably boast about the expected big GDP rise of a whopping 25 to 30% for this quarter. But this isn’t that impressive after a record-breaking 31.4% drop in the previous quarter: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...doesn-n1245116


If there was no significant rain for months and an area's water reserves had been depleted. A week of rain that fills the reservoirs would be welcome.

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## Firestarter

> If there was no significant rain for months and an area's water reserves had been depleted. A week of rain that fills the reservoirs would be welcome.


I thought that the economic collapse was caused by the worldwide lockdown, in which President Donald played/plays a starring role...
Taking GDP as a ground for economic growth is dubious at best.
But to compare it to the previous quarter, after a record breaking drop of 31.4%, is preposterous!





> The US economy is expected to shrink by 4.3% this year, according to the IMF. Some countries are actually expected to grow, including South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and China.
> The US is taking on debt levels not seen since World War II. While Donald Trump in 2016 promised to clear the debt in 8 years, its federal debt has ballooned with another $5.6 trillion.

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## GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged

> I thought that the economic collapse was caused by the worldwide lockdown, in which President Donald played/plays a starring role...
> Taking GDP as a ground for economic growth is dubious at best.
> But to compare it to the previous quarter, after a record breaking drop of 31.4%, is preposterous!


Maybe I misunderstood but I thought you were the one to compare this quarters gain to last quarters loss.

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## Firestarter

> Maybe I misunderstood but I thought you were the one to compare this quarters gain to last quarters loss.


It could be that you're illiterate or that you're intentionally twisting and turning.

I replied to @Swordsmyth 's post that the US economy grew with 33.1 percent.



> The Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent, beating forecasters’ expectations.


Trump shyllz will probably boast about the expected big GDP rise of a whopping 25 to 30% for this quarter. But this isn’t that impressive after a record-breaking 31.4% drop in the previous quarter: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...doesn-n1245116

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## GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged

> It could be that you're illiterate or that you're intentionally twisting and turning.
> 
> I replied to @Swordsmyth 's post that the US economy grew with 33.1 percent.
> 
> Trump shyllz will probably boast about the expected big GDP rise of a whopping 25 to 30% for this quarter. But this isn’t that impressive after a record-breaking 31.4% drop in the previous quarter: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...doesn-n1245116


I guess I am illiterate and do not understand your intent. Maybe you should consider giving me another negative reputation.

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## Swordsmyth

After a disappointing drop in August, personal incomes were expected to rise modestly (+0.4% MoM) in September, with spending expected to rise 1.0% MoM. However, September was even more positive with personal income rising 0.9% MoM and spending up 1.4% MoM.



On the income side, private workers saw wages rise (+1.0% YoY) but government workers saw pay drop (-1.2% YoY)...



More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...cted-september

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## Swordsmyth

The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims decreased to 751,000 last week as the economy continues to suffer the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, according to the Department of Labor.

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics figure released Thursday represented a decrease of new jobless claims compared to the week ending Oct. 17, in which there were 787,000 new jobless claims reported. The figure released on Oct. 22 was the lowest since March, according to CNBC.

Economists expected Thursday’s jobless claims number to come in around 778,000 CNBC reported. New jobless claims fell below 1 million in the first week of August, which was the first time the weekly claims had fallen below 1 million since March.

The U.S. added 661,000 jobs in September, while unemployment fell to 7.9%, according to the Department of Labor data released Oct. 2. October’s unemployment report is set to be released on Nov. 6.

More at: http://dailycallernewsfoundation.org...-expectations/

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## Swordsmyth

If the Demoncrats weren't deliberately destroying the economies of blue states and cities we would be doing even better.

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## Swordsmyth

An incredible insight into the powerful and strong gains for U.S. manufacturing has been released by The Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers. As reported by the Associated Press, the managers “said Monday that its manufacturing index rose by 3.9 percentage points to a reading of 59.3% last month, up from 55.4% in September.”

The report claims October gains are “the highest level in two years” even with the coronavirus impeding the country. “It was the highest level for this closely watched barometer of manufacturing health since September 2018. Any reading above 50 signals that manufacturing is expanding” writes the AP. The numbers are of particular importance because the gauge fell into recession numbers from March through May of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the country shutdowns.

October’s gains are reflected in “key areas such as employment and inventories” and of the 18 industries covered in the report, “15 reported expansion in October with strong growth in fabricated metals, food and beverages, chemicals and computers and electronics” reported the AP. Chair of the ISM manufacturing survey committee credited the strong demand coming “out of the spring lockups in such areas as home construction and auto sales.”

The “new orders component of the index was also strong, rising to the highest level since 2004.”

More at: https://thegreggjarrett.com/u-s-manu...el-since-2018/

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## Swordsmyth

According to payroll processor ADP, more than 400,000 new jobs were created by the Trump economy in October. This is the sixth month of gains in a row since the shutdown, during which the economy has added back almost 10 million jobs from the 19.7 million lost in March and April.

The gains were broad-based, with new jobs being added in every sector: manufacturing (17,000), services (348,000), and franchise employment (49, 600).

The job gains reflect the remarkable comeback of the economy from the April lows. Consumer sentiment, both “present” and “future outlook,” jumped in September, along with business owners’ sentiment, which “surged higher,” according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index continued to improve in September as well, with “a solid 70 percent of top executives [saying that] economic conditions were better compared to six months ago … [and] 64% expect[ing] economic conditions to improve in the next six months,” according to their report.



Retail sales, both online and at stores, jumped in September for the fifth straight month, with the “Beige Book” of the Federal Reserve showing economic activity “continuing to increase all districts” tracked by the Fed.

If this is how well the U.S. economy operates when only half of the people who were laid off during the COVID pandemic are back at work, imagine how the economy will behave when the rest of those who lost their jobs come back to work!

More at: https://thenewamerican.com/adp-more-...ed-in-october/

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## Swordsmyth

Even while the election is still underway, the ABC, CBS and NBC morning news shows still chose to hoodwink viewers by not reporting news of an astounding rally in the jobs market under President Donald Trump’s economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a report at 8:30 am today showing that total nonfarm payroll employment skyrocketed 638,000 jobs in October, which destroyed expectations of a 530,000 increase by Dow Jones-surveyed economists, according to CNBC. That’s a whopping 108,000 disparity. For extra measure, the unemployment rate fell an entire percentage point from 7.9 percent in September to 6.9 percent in October, also destroying expectations by Dow Jones-surveyed economists. Economists reportedly expected just a minor drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent. Following a notorious record of ignoring, censoring and suppressing good news in Trump’s economy, ABC’s Good Morning America (GMA), CBS This Morning and NBC’s Today (including the Third Hour of Today) blacked out the news entirely.

More at: https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/bu...gains-big-drop

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