And the establishment is slowly coming to grips with the notion that such a plan may be the only hope of avoiding default and a downgrade in August. For as we've noted, the long-running game of "Deal or No Deal" continues to tilt in the direction of "No Deal." Rep. Ron Paul, the presidential candidate who was our guest on The Daily Ticker, tells me he isn't planning to vote for any increase in the debt ceiling because he didn't support many of the spending programs that caused the debt in the first place — from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Many Republicans, even those who voted enthusiastically for every Bush budget, for the expansion of the Medicare prescription drug benefit, and for the massive increase of defense spending we've had in recent years, feel the same way. The dynamic in the House of Representatives and Senate remains is what it has been for the last couple of years: anything that is desired or even tolerable to President Obama is likely to be opposed by virtually every elected Republican.