Will the be another economic collapse or downward spiral?? Oppinons please!

[socialvirus]

I’m sure this questions had most likely been beaten to death over and over again, but I am wondering about what RPF’s thinks about the future of the US and world economies. I understand that markets are impressionable and sensitive systems that are 100% impossible to predict with complete accuracy. I also realize that this will be everyone’s opinions, but with the vast range of differing scenarios that I’ve heard from I inflation to deflation I’m wondering what RPF’s thinks

First what is more likely a total collapse and almost no government functioning or a slow creeping downward spiral like we’ve been experiencing and incremental destruction of the middle class over the next five to ten years?

What would be the ultimate nail in our coffin to turn the United States into Argentina, Mexico, or Greece? Would it be the 107 trillion dollars in unfunded entitlement liabilities? Will it be the 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivatives black hole? Or will it be continued quantitative easing by the fed dropping trillions and trillions more into our corpse of an economy to try to get a reaction?

What kind of collapse is most likely in the United States, Greek style, Soviet Style, Or Weimar Republic style? If it were Soviet Style, is there any way the states could operate independently? What could we expect in a collapse? No food for a week, two weeks, or the rest of our lives as our whole country becomes a third world wasteland like the movie “The Road” becomes reality with human beings barbequing heads on pikes?

If there is the sudden collapse, what do you all think the time frame for that is, A few months away, a year away, five or ten years away?
I suppose the best thing anyone can do is be prepared for it, and then try to do as best as you can in the meantime and not worry about it until it happens: But it really helps to have an idea what to expect in the future.

 

[DamianTV]

Right now the big one I am focused on is the Debt Ceiling that we are quickly approaching hitting like a speeding car into a brick wall, and the only thing we are doing to prevent it is burying the gas pedal in the floorboard. So either we kill ourselves maybe a little slower by allowing the corrupt politicians to raise the debt ceiling even further, or "armageddon" as they put it if they dont raise the ceiling, as government services stop paying their workers. Either way is suicide.

Now more than ever we need to replace the dishonest and undermining method of Central Banking with an Honest Money System.

 

[mojobo]

In my opinion we are basically just waiting on some sort of catalyst to set this whole thing into motion. We have a whole lot further to fall than any other nation in history since we were far greater economically than any other nation. I think the way this plays out is that China gradually stops propping up our economy and dollar. As they gradually stop buying our debt we will fill that void with the Federal Reserve increasing its holdings of U.S. debt. There will eventually be a point where there will be a major panic as foreign holders of U.S. dollars frantically sell their holdings of dollars and get whatever they can for them. Since we are still currently the worlds reserve currency this will have a devastating effect as there is a very large holding of U.S. dollars that will suddenly hit the market. Instead of letting prices rise and using the free market to get back on track there will likely be price controls as the first means to fight inflation but that is only going to lead to shortages.

It will not be much longer before the collapse hits us. Any natural disaster that has anywhere near the impact that Hurricane Katrina did would probably spark it immediately. If we are extremely lucky and have no major events that spark it I think we will last only a year or two.

 

[hugolp]

If at some point there are signs of another collapse Bernanke will crack the "printing presses" again. Its not goain to happen. There is gong to be an inflationary crisis, stagfaltion.

But there is going to be a lot of volatillity. While the CPI, stocks, commodities are going to be going up as a trend, there will be lots of sudden ups and downs.

 

[DamianTV]

When they tell you "not to panic", thats when you panic!

 

[hugolp]

When they tell you "not to panic", thats when you panic!

Exactly. People know this is not a real recovery, just artificially inflating, so everybody is very wary and will overreact everytime something happens. Its going to be a bumpy ride thanks to the cortesy of the central planners.

 

[Fox McCloud]

If at some point there are signs of another collapse Bernanke will crack the "printing presses" again. Its not goain to happen. There is gong to be an inflationary crisis, stagfaltion.

But there is going to be a lot of volatillity. While the CPI, stocks, commodities are going to be going up as a trend, there will be lots of sudden ups and downs.

this is pretty much what I've come to conclude, as well--there won't be a gigantic crash, but there won't be a hyperinflationary crack up boom either; rather, we'll just become another Japan without a carry trade...meaning things just kinda stay the same at the current levels...doesn't get particularly worse or better.

 

[jclay2]

If at some point there are signs of another collapse Bernanke will crack the "printing presses" again. Its not goain to happen. There is gong to be an inflationary crisis, stagfaltion.

But there is going to be a lot of volatillity. While the CPI, stocks, commodities are going to be going up as a trend, there will be lots of sudden ups and downs.

I agree with this.

 

[pmbug]

"I could calculate your chances of survival, but you won't like it."

 

[Madly_Sane]

I don't even understand why people even ask this question anymore...

 

[ctiger2]

The economy is in a state of collapse right now. If you were to look at it in a single frame snapshot you would notice both the driver and the bike are still in perfect condition. I assure you, it will end badly.

 

[college4life]

of COURSE THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY FOR ZIRP and our ridiculous deficits.

Silver and gold are back today. Wheat, sugar, cotton, corn, coffee, soybeans are all on a tear. Prices are soaring, but will soar with greater speed as we continue QE.

 

[Dr.3D]

"Will there be another economic collapse or downward spiral?"

In my opinion, we never left the original collapse and it has just been postponed by printing money. It is inevitable that sooner or later, the original collapse will have to take place and with all of the propping up of the markets, it will just take longer and be more miserable when it happens. They can't violate the laws of economics and get away with it for very long. The collapse will have to take place no matter what they do.

 

[japes]

The economy is in a state of collapse right now. If you were to look at it in a single frame snapshot you would notice both the driver and the bike are still in perfect condition. I assure you, it will end badly.

Great picture! I wonder if the monetary scientists at the Fed realize they are upside down.

 

[pmbug]

Love the pic of team Fiat.

 

[ctiger2]

Love the pic of team Fiat.

I didn't even notice that til you mentioned it. How perfect!