Which gold mine stocks are best to buy?

[juggle]

ok, so i am convinced gold will go higher. Should I buy gold index funds, gold bullion, or gold mining stocks? Which ones and why?

 

[Josh_LA]

if you are convinced gold will go higher, why NOT own some gold bullion?

I know nothing about mining stocks, but here's a site from Jason Hommel
http://miningpedia.com/

 

[TruthisTreason]

I did pretty good last week with HL.



http://www.kitco.com/stocks/companyname_asc.html

 

[IChooseLiberty]

I wouldn't suggest buying miners at this point unless you are an experienced trader and aren't looking to hold long-term.

Personally, I believe, as of 1 week from this past friday, that we have begun a multi-week to multi-month rally. Once the rally is exhausted, the markets will continue their plunge to retest and break the recently set lows. Unfortunately, gold miners will be taken down with the market even if gold does well.

Once wave 5 down is complete, then it will be a good time to buy most stocks as we will then begin an ABC correction off those lows that will last quite awhile. Even then though, stocks will only be good for the relative short-term as, once the ABC correction is complete, stocks will begin another set of 5 waves down to their ultimate lows.

So, I'd suggest a ratio of gold bullion to cash that you feel comfortable with for long-term investing. I do not recommend Silver/Palladium/Platinum as I believe they will perform poorly with respect to Gold. In fact, I believe that cash will even outperform Gold in the intermediate term (5-10 years); However, the point of Gold is to hedge currency risk.

 

[the count]

I wouldn't suggest buying miners at this point unless you are an experienced trader and aren't looking to hold long-term.

Personally, I believe, as of 1 week from this past friday, that we have begun a multi-week to multi-month rally..

my guestimate is that the rally will last until about the middle of january, maybe a couple weeks longer... what say you?
on a side note.... how do you see the dollar>? as you are obviously an elliot wave guy? let say for the next 6 months?

 

[IChooseLiberty]

my guestimate is that the rally will last until about the middle of january, maybe a couple weeks longer... what say you?
on a side note.... how do you see the dollar>? as you are obviously an elliot wave guy? let say for the next 6 months?

That's pretty much my target as well. Come Jan '09 I'll sell my longs (UYG, BHP, ABX, GFI) and replace them with shorts (SCC, SRS). I'm keeping my eyes peeled for 9500-10500 on the DOW and/or 1000 on the S&P 500.

As for the dollar, I see it staying in this area and possibly falling slightly until the bear market rally finishes. I expect that commodities, commodity stocks, financials, and consumer stocks will be the best performers during the frame of this rally but it won't make much of a dent in the massive losses to their share prices that they've all seen. Once the markets start to fall again, I expect the dollar will resume strengthening.

I've been studying this for awhile and had been totally in the inflation camp; But, the performance of the dollar, silver, gold, and a better understanding of economics has changed my outlook. The Fed can increase the money supply all they want in an effort to devalue the dollar but I don't think it will overpower the deflationary forces as the fractional reserve money multiplier is no longer working in their favor. Loaning and borrowing is highly inflationary (like what we saw for the housing boom). The lack of loaning and borrowing is highly deflationary (like we are seeing now). I only expect the credit situation to get worse as now we are in a deflationary negative feedback loop.

 

[the count]

That's pretty much my target as well. Come Jan '09 I'll sell my longs (UYG, BHP, ABX, GFI) and replace them with shorts (SCC, SRS). I'm keeping my eyes peeled for 9500-10500 on the DOW and/or 1000 on the S&P 500.

As for the dollar, I see it staying in this area and possibly falling slightly until the bear market rally finishes. I expect that commodities, commodity stocks, financials, and consumer stocks will be the best performers during the frame of this rally but it won't make much of a dent in the massive losses to their share prices that they've all seen. Once the markets start to fall again, I expect the dollar will resume strengthening.

I've been studying this for awhile and had been totally in the inflation camp; But, the performance of the dollar, silver, gold, and a better understanding of economics has changed my outlook. The Fed can increase the money supply all they want in an effort to devalue the dollar but I don't think it will overpower the deflationary forces as the fractional reserve money multiplier is no longer working in their favor. Loaning and borrowing is highly inflationary (like what we saw for the housing boom). The lack of loaning and borrowing is highly deflationary (like we are seeing now). I only expect the credit situation to get worse as now we are in a deflationary negative feedback loop.

what is happening now is a repeat of 2000/2001 tech bubble / 911 when everything also froze, although not as extreme. the trillions the fed is printing WILL have an effect sooner or later and if that doesn't work, bernanke said in a speech back in 2002, the next weapon is to devalue the dollar. nothing like a drastic measure like that to get inflation started.

 

[IChooseLiberty]

what is happening now is a repeat of 2000/2001 tech bubble / 911 when everything also froze, although not as extreme. the trillions the fed is printing WILL have an effect sooner or later and if that doesn't work, bernanke said in a speech back in 2002, the next weapon is to devalue the dollar. nothing like a drastic measure like that to get inflation started.

Yeah, the whole dropping dollars from helicopters quote. That's exactly what hooked me into the inflationary camp; But, this is the chart that changed my mind.

 

[the count]

That chart is interesting. If you look at 1929, it seems rates were low and then shot up before continuing down. Now my trade horizon is a maximum of 6-12 months which is like real long term these days. I used to be a short term trader until the late 90s when everybody go into the act with online brokerages and what not which caused so much static that many models ceased to work. I only reopened a trading account a couple weeks ago after doing nothing for years as i currently see the macro trades of a lifetime.

 

[IChooseLiberty]

That chart is interesting. If you look at 1929, it seems rates were low and then shot up before continuing down. Now my trade horizon is a maximum of 6-12 months which is like real long term these days. I used to be a short term trader until the late 90s when everybody go into the act with online brokerages and what not which caused so much static that many models ceased to work. I only reopened a trading account a couple weeks ago after doing nothing for years as i currently see the macro trades of a lifetime.

Notice, each peak is the height of inflation and each trough is the bottom of deflation. Just the other day I heard that the yield on the 10 year hit a long-term low (since ~1955 per the chart)

Without a doubt, once wave 4 of the grand supercycle (the nasty bear market we are currently in) wraps up, it will be the once in a lifetime chance to invest in the stock market at pennies on the dollar valuations. The only thing is that it's years away (maybe 2015? lol)... so all you need to do is make sure you have the money to throw in the ring when the time is right... which will be no easy task as asset values continue to fall long-term and cash gets harder to come by.

Me, I've just been a student of economics as a matter of necessity after getting laid off during the dot-com crash. I suppose it was RP's economics that attracted me to his campaign. Finishing up Macroeconomics this Wednesday and plan to take Econ 201 - Money and Banking next semester. Most of the trading I've done has been long-term swing trading in my retirement accounts; But, I've recently gotten into a bit of day trading (when I have off my day job) and have been very successful using index ETFs and macro trends.

 

[Arklatex]

How about IAG AUY GFI FCX

 

[the count]

How about IAG AUY GFI FCX

I look at markets almost purely as a technical analyst (in fact i wrote a book on this 10 years ago). all except fcx look like they have a bottom in place (actually double bottom), which is good.

with GFI for example, as long as the close price is above around $7 things look good. A close under 6 would be a yellow light and under 5 it could go much lower.

BUT its all a matter of your time frame and perspective.

PS: in the old days (pre tech bubble) you could have decent stop loss orders in the market. almost nothing moved more than 5 percent in a day. With the current volatility swings you are better off keeping a steady eye on things and then act as necessary.

PPS: you might want to consider trading gold ETFs instead of individual mining stocks which are very sensitive to news events, earning reports and the like. check out GLD, DGP, SLV instead