Where Is Silver Going?

[bobbyw24]

Hubert Moolman
December 15, 2011 - 11:52am


Silver and gold are in the process of bottoming, and should rally very soon. The depth of the recent decline may be surprising; however, it does not signal the end of the bull market. The fundamentals for silver and gold are very strong, and it has not changed over the last couple of days.

We are still using fiat money, as well as debt levels are still extremely high. The massive debts brought about by the debt-based monetary system, is not just going to go away. A few things have to happen before debt is brought to acceptable levels.

The debts have to be paid or defaulted on. Either way, that means significantly reduced economic activity (Depression) world-wide. That likely also means another big stock market crash. Before this happens it would be foolish to talk about a top in precious metals, since these conditions (a deflating debt bubble) are what will drive gold and silver prices significantly higher.

In a few of my previous articles, I have shown how one can use gold as a leading indicator, to predict what may happen to the silver price. I stated the following:

“So, there is not just a similarity in how gold and silver trade at the same time period, but also how they trade at similar milestones, despite the fact that those milestones are sometimes reached at different times. This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone”.

I would like to continue with that theme, and use gold’s past patterns to suggest how the silver price will perform over the next couple of months.

Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

http://www.silverseek.com/article/where-silver-going

 

[bobbyw24]

Gold And Silver Seasonal Trends
December 16, 2011


For market insights many investors focus on the “historical/backward” looking news but fail to realize other exceptionally powerful forces that are also at work; such as “Seasonal Trends”. We believe there is some validity to paying attention to the News events that can impact ones investments; however seasonal factors may provide a simpler and more reliable market insight.

To keep things simple we will first display a few charts and then discuss what they may be indicating:

When we look at the red line in the above chart we can see that the price of silver usually performs strongly from about November to April. Around this time of year we typically see the price of silver pushing higher and higher with relatively small corrections.

http://investmentscore.com/editorials/gold-and-silver-seasonal-trends.php

 

[bobbyw24]

Silver’s a bargain under $30, but watch volatility

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver is ready to finish a dramatic year near the level it started, and some analysts predict big gains, and heavy volatility, for the white metal in 2012.

“Silver went parabolic when it broke above $29 back in March of this year,” said James Carrillo, senior portfolio adviser for Swiss America Trading Corporation. “It fulfilled its parabolic blow off at $50 shortly thereafter and is now testing the break point.”

Silver futures SI2H +2.10% closed at almost $49 an ounce in late April. After a whopping 7% drop on Wednesday, they’re trading back below $30. Read more on gold and silver futures.

“In the latter half of the year, panic selling at both the personal level and institutional level brought silver down as investors had increased anxiety over world economic events,” said Paul Mladjenovic, author of “Precious Metals Investing for Dummies.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/si...t-watch-volatility-2011-12-16?dist=beforebell

 

[pmbug]

Sales of physical silver (100 ozt bars) have certainly gone parabolic with silver under $30 if the inventory numbers from apmex is any indication.

 

[bobbyw24]

Silver Market Update Clive Maund

Some weeks ago in a Silver Market update we had noted that a large potential Head-and-Shoulders top area was completing in silver, but we got "thrown off the scent" by the positive Accum-Distrib line (now rapidly reversing) and the seemingly strongly bullish COT structure. In the light of the severe bearish breakdown by stocks indices last week this potential H&S top is now viewed as legitimate. Silver held up remarkably well last week considering what happened to gold, which is a straw that silver bulls are now clutching on to as evidence that silver is still in a bullmarket, but the reason that it held up so well is that it is close to a zone of strong support towards the lower boundary of the H&S top area. Once this support fails it's "curtains" for silver which can be expected to plunge into the high teens.

The Head-and-Shoulders top is shown on the 3-year chart for silver shown below. On this chart we can also observe various other bearish factors that are now coming into play. One is that silver has been trading way below its 200-day moving average since the September plunge, and this indicator is now rolling over and about to turn down, which will put the price and its moving averages in nerarish alignment for the first time since 2008. Another important bearish factor is that that the MACD momentum indicator shown at the bottom of the chart is now in an established downtrend, and with it now showing an only moderately oversold reading there is plenty of scope for further heavy losses going forward.

MORE:

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update

 

[xFiFtyOnE]

What's the chances we will see $25 or lower silver before blast off? Any ideas?

 

[bobbyw24]

What's the chances we will see $25 or lower silver before blast off? Any ideas?

I infer from the chart that in late January we could see $18 Silver and below

 

[pmbug]

If silver falls that far, I expect we will see supply shortages of physical silver at dealers with rising premiums. I have already noted that sales of physical exploded when the spot dropped to $28/ozt.

 

[bobbyw24]

Why Silver Could Take-Off From Current Levels

Last week, I told you about the scramble among investors for American Silver Eagles. These coins, minted by the U.S. government, contain exactly one troy ounce of 99.9% pure silver.

Twice between 2008 and 2009 the U.S. mint had to suspend sales... and demand has almost doubled since then. All-in-all, in the past five years, demand for Silver Eagles has grown 31% annually. Roughly 40 million of these coins will be snapped up this year alone.

Meanwhile, silver has been in one of the biggest bull markets of the decade. During a roller coaster period for the broader market, silver has seen gains in eight of the past 10 calendar years.

So how high will silver go?

To be honest, trying to nail down a specific target number is tough to do. In this case, I think it's best to simply look at what could happen... and why.

That's where things get interesting. In 1980, silver spiked to about $143 per ounce in today's dollars -- roughly $110 dollars, or 393% higher, than today's price.

http://finance.townhall.com/columni.../why_silver_could_takeoff_from_current_levels