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With Rand out of the race after gaining less votes in Iowa than Ron Paul did in previous caucuses held there, perhaps it's time to break down where those supporters may have gone, based on the issues. First, there are some assumptions or parameters for the analysis.
It's safe to say that there are high information voters and low information voters. The vast majority of voters are not terribly knowledgeable about candidates, issues or underlying agendas. We'll use the 80/20 rule, and even that is probably generous. For the purposes of this analysis, the high information fanatics are excluded. Let's focus on the 80% majority that get by on soundbites and general consensus impressions.
What attracted voters to Ron Paul? In terms of issues, there are some general positions that low information voters heard from Ron Paul during his debates that really grabbed them. Often Ron was the only one willing to speak truth to power on these issues. Which candidates this year took those same or similar sounding positions?
Position: Audit the Fed. Many people warmed immediately to this issue, especially in the wake of TARP and the mortgage crisis. It made sense, and it was new to most voters. Of the candidates this cycle, Rand Paul obviously is the strongest continuing proponent of this. But Ted Cruz was also able to convince many people that he fully supported this. It became so popular that even right wing talk show hosts took up the banner.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Position: Anti-war. This was where both Ron and Rand really stood out from the others. This can also include being anti-neoconservative, which many people had not even heard about before Ron Paul. There is also a great part of fiscal conservatism wrapped in this issue. Obviously this is Rand's area, but with Trump's opposition in the past to the Iraq war, and his apparent ambivalence to the neoconservative boogeymen of Iran and Russia, Trump also gets some share of this. It could be said in the past that Cruz leaned this way, but he has since abandoned it for a more standard neoconservative foreign policy. Many believe that Bernie Sanders also holds some of these positions.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders.
Position: Abolish the IRS. This was quite the exciting rally cry from Ron Paul's first run for President. Unfortunately, at this point all of the candidates including Rand have submitted more realistic flat tax plans which include individual income taxes. He plan is still too lean for the vast majority of the big government establishment and socialists. Ted Cruz has basically followed in Rand's shadow on this issue with a very similar plan to Rand. At this point, some believe that Rand still has this in his DNA, but it's rallying cry that has been abandoned.
Candidates: Rand Paul by past association.
Position: Champion of the Constitution. This was one of Ron's favorite descriptions of himself. Rand has certainly taken on this task. But as always, the Paul's have been emulated by Ted Cruz, who also wants a slice of this portion of the electorate.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Position: Limited size of government. It was a breath of fresh air from Ron Paul in the eyes of the average voter. Not so unique from veterans of libertarian elections in the past. He talked about which departments of government he would abolish. It resonated. Other candidates copied. But Ron stood out as being truly serious. This season, not so much talk about it from any candidates. Once again, it is assumed to be in the DNA of Rand, but it hasn't been a key talking point, at least not in these simple terms.
Candidates: Rand Paul by past association.
Position: Civil liberties, Bill of Rights. Another breath of fresh air from Ron Paul. Rand has gladly taken up this mantle and emphasized it, especially when it comes to unconstitutional government surveillance. He is the only one. Some might say that Bernie Sanders has some aspects of this on certain specific situations, but this is not a principle that Bernie embraces as a whole.
Candidates: Rand Paul.
Position: America-First. Ron talked about many things that could be called America-first or interpreted that way. He talked about the economic destruction of the American middle class. He talked about US sovereignty. He called for the elimination of foreign aid. He talked about the elimination of birth-right citizenship. This, along with an America-first interpretation of some of his other positions, brought in many voters. It also drew the unending ire of the globalist establishment, who view the US and US sovereignty as merely inconveniences to international crony corporatism. While Rand Paul has retained some of these ideas, like opposition to TPP, Donald Trump crashed into this election with extreme rhetoric which wrapped up the perception that he is the only candidate that is emphasizing this issue, in particular with regard to trade and immigration. It is not the America-first of Ron Paul, but to the low information voter, it's a close enough concept.
Candidates: Donald Trump (by way of extreme bluster).
Position: Anti-establishment. This is more of a vague concept, but it was extremely popular this year. Ron Paul was the only anti-establishment candidate for two election cycles. Now, many put on this mantle, some more than others. Interestingly enough, the media attempts to label candidates that are clearly part of the establishment and call them anti-establishment. Rubio and Fiorina come to mind. Classic Orwellian double-speak. The establishment makes it pretty clear who they oppose, so this one is easier to observe.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump
Position: Anti-Wall Street. Ron Paul made it clear that he supports free markets and minimal regulation, but there was an anti-Wall Street component to that. Mostly it revolved around crony capitalism and the Wall St. interests that take advantage of inside access, which dove-tailed nicely with his Audit the Fed efforts. This overlaps to a certain extent with the Occupy Wall Street movement, which of course leans towards Bernie Sanders, with Sanders being the only candidate to emphasize it this year, albeit with socialist and government redistribution of wealth remedies.
Candidates: Bernie Sanders (for calling out the problems, but with counter-productive solutions).
Position: Fiscal conservatism. Who is truly a fiscal conservative in the era of big government on all sides? Ron Paul stood out as the extreme fiscal conservative. Rand has moved a tad bit more realistic in his approach, but there is no doubt that this is where he truly stands. There is another Senator that has taken some steps in Senate to appear to be staunch on this issue as well, and that is Ted Cruz. Donald Trump says he will make great deals and save money, but there is no indication or claim that he would ever cut back on overall spending.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Once again, this is simply looking at the issues. There are many other factors at play, but based upon issues and their importance to various voters, it can explain the allure of candidates this year to past Ron Paul supporters, especially if only a few of this issues are truly important to specific voters.
It's safe to say that there are high information voters and low information voters. The vast majority of voters are not terribly knowledgeable about candidates, issues or underlying agendas. We'll use the 80/20 rule, and even that is probably generous. For the purposes of this analysis, the high information fanatics are excluded. Let's focus on the 80% majority that get by on soundbites and general consensus impressions.
What attracted voters to Ron Paul? In terms of issues, there are some general positions that low information voters heard from Ron Paul during his debates that really grabbed them. Often Ron was the only one willing to speak truth to power on these issues. Which candidates this year took those same or similar sounding positions?
Position: Audit the Fed. Many people warmed immediately to this issue, especially in the wake of TARP and the mortgage crisis. It made sense, and it was new to most voters. Of the candidates this cycle, Rand Paul obviously is the strongest continuing proponent of this. But Ted Cruz was also able to convince many people that he fully supported this. It became so popular that even right wing talk show hosts took up the banner.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Position: Anti-war. This was where both Ron and Rand really stood out from the others. This can also include being anti-neoconservative, which many people had not even heard about before Ron Paul. There is also a great part of fiscal conservatism wrapped in this issue. Obviously this is Rand's area, but with Trump's opposition in the past to the Iraq war, and his apparent ambivalence to the neoconservative boogeymen of Iran and Russia, Trump also gets some share of this. It could be said in the past that Cruz leaned this way, but he has since abandoned it for a more standard neoconservative foreign policy. Many believe that Bernie Sanders also holds some of these positions.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders.
Position: Abolish the IRS. This was quite the exciting rally cry from Ron Paul's first run for President. Unfortunately, at this point all of the candidates including Rand have submitted more realistic flat tax plans which include individual income taxes. He plan is still too lean for the vast majority of the big government establishment and socialists. Ted Cruz has basically followed in Rand's shadow on this issue with a very similar plan to Rand. At this point, some believe that Rand still has this in his DNA, but it's rallying cry that has been abandoned.
Candidates: Rand Paul by past association.
Position: Champion of the Constitution. This was one of Ron's favorite descriptions of himself. Rand has certainly taken on this task. But as always, the Paul's have been emulated by Ted Cruz, who also wants a slice of this portion of the electorate.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Position: Limited size of government. It was a breath of fresh air from Ron Paul in the eyes of the average voter. Not so unique from veterans of libertarian elections in the past. He talked about which departments of government he would abolish. It resonated. Other candidates copied. But Ron stood out as being truly serious. This season, not so much talk about it from any candidates. Once again, it is assumed to be in the DNA of Rand, but it hasn't been a key talking point, at least not in these simple terms.
Candidates: Rand Paul by past association.
Position: Civil liberties, Bill of Rights. Another breath of fresh air from Ron Paul. Rand has gladly taken up this mantle and emphasized it, especially when it comes to unconstitutional government surveillance. He is the only one. Some might say that Bernie Sanders has some aspects of this on certain specific situations, but this is not a principle that Bernie embraces as a whole.
Candidates: Rand Paul.
Position: America-First. Ron talked about many things that could be called America-first or interpreted that way. He talked about the economic destruction of the American middle class. He talked about US sovereignty. He called for the elimination of foreign aid. He talked about the elimination of birth-right citizenship. This, along with an America-first interpretation of some of his other positions, brought in many voters. It also drew the unending ire of the globalist establishment, who view the US and US sovereignty as merely inconveniences to international crony corporatism. While Rand Paul has retained some of these ideas, like opposition to TPP, Donald Trump crashed into this election with extreme rhetoric which wrapped up the perception that he is the only candidate that is emphasizing this issue, in particular with regard to trade and immigration. It is not the America-first of Ron Paul, but to the low information voter, it's a close enough concept.
Candidates: Donald Trump (by way of extreme bluster).
Position: Anti-establishment. This is more of a vague concept, but it was extremely popular this year. Ron Paul was the only anti-establishment candidate for two election cycles. Now, many put on this mantle, some more than others. Interestingly enough, the media attempts to label candidates that are clearly part of the establishment and call them anti-establishment. Rubio and Fiorina come to mind. Classic Orwellian double-speak. The establishment makes it pretty clear who they oppose, so this one is easier to observe.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump
Position: Anti-Wall Street. Ron Paul made it clear that he supports free markets and minimal regulation, but there was an anti-Wall Street component to that. Mostly it revolved around crony capitalism and the Wall St. interests that take advantage of inside access, which dove-tailed nicely with his Audit the Fed efforts. This overlaps to a certain extent with the Occupy Wall Street movement, which of course leans towards Bernie Sanders, with Sanders being the only candidate to emphasize it this year, albeit with socialist and government redistribution of wealth remedies.
Candidates: Bernie Sanders (for calling out the problems, but with counter-productive solutions).
Position: Fiscal conservatism. Who is truly a fiscal conservative in the era of big government on all sides? Ron Paul stood out as the extreme fiscal conservative. Rand has moved a tad bit more realistic in his approach, but there is no doubt that this is where he truly stands. There is another Senator that has taken some steps in Senate to appear to be staunch on this issue as well, and that is Ted Cruz. Donald Trump says he will make great deals and save money, but there is no indication or claim that he would ever cut back on overall spending.
Candidates: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.
Once again, this is simply looking at the issues. There are many other factors at play, but based upon issues and their importance to various voters, it can explain the allure of candidates this year to past Ron Paul supporters, especially if only a few of this issues are truly important to specific voters.
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